April 25, 2014

Bits Bucket for April 25, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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298 Comments »

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 00:52:33

Why do big-name macroeconomists put so much faith in real estate scams?

Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 05:09:38

And why do they put so much faith in big government scams that support real estate?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-04-25 05:36:17

“And why do they put so much faith in big government scams that support real estate?”

Because people are smart and smart people own real estate and these smart people who own real estate are voters and voters’ needs and desires must be attended to by the PTB else the voted-in lackeys who are controlled by the PTB may get voted out.

Also, big government scams that support real estate coincidently (snort) support the banks.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:04:42

Well, then. A Neanderthal I shall remain.

Tra-la, Tra-la, Tra-la!

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:24:53

Well that’s obvious: Big govt real estate scams are too-big-to-fail. If they were ended, the global financial economy would collapse.

 
 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-25 06:03:17

Also, big government scams that support real estate coincidently (snort) support the banks.

Property tax is a huge for local governments.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-04-25 06:09:11

“Property tax is a huge for local governments.”

Yes, and higher RE prices translate into higher property taxes.

The are many who have an interest in higher RE prices and few who have an interest in lower RE prices so higher prices is what you end up with.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:14:36

Which of your lackeys allowed the FHA limit drops to take effect? I’m sure someone was “disciplined” for that misstep.

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Comment by Rusty1014
2014-04-25 12:56:19

Jackpot! Give Mr. Banker a cigar for figuring out one of the two main reasons for the massive support of R/E prices. Number two being Mr. Bankers financial condition, of course.

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Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2014-04-25 06:44:01

‘Property tax is a huge for local governments.’

It is almost a ‘Matrix’ type scenario. Get indebted with a house loan and have to service bankers and pay the municipality and other tax collectors so that they can exist. Society needs stability but it has gotten a finesse of convincing people that real estate is worth a major portion of a working person’s life’s pursuits aka mortgage.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:30:00

The Matrix was indeed analogizing to the control society as a whole exerts on people. In the end, they all want to control your thoughts whether on they’ll admit it or not (or even realize it themselves or not).

You dont need to be jacked in to a computer to be a drone for the masters.

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Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2014-04-25 10:14:37

You dont need to be jacked in to a computer to be a drone for the masters.

Ah, but that’s where we’re headed. Soon we’ll all be in the cloud rolling around in our financial records and digital dollars.

 
 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-25 17:40:19

“society needs stability”

Not in the form the government is trying to shoehorn us into.

I am doing my best to destabilize this “progressive” society by 1) going on consumer strike and staying debt free, 2) not marrying, 3) not helping to bring children into this world to be tax slaves like us for the FSA to feed off of 4) not buying a house, 5) accumulating movable and hidable wealth to barter with later, 6) not watching television,which brainwashes us to be docile, and 7) not voting, which itself sanctions the very system I want eliminated.

It is a strategy that is not at all self sacrificial. I win by accumulating more net worth than the kook-aid drinking slaves of the “progressives.”

The “progressives” will starve if we destabilize them. But if you don’t join me, I still win because I still do this for my rational self interest.

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Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 18:29:00

What are you going to do with all your money once you have enough?

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-25 21:54:07

LolaLOL, I am going to follow the climate. Live in a red state during the comfortable time of year and do VRBO in some coastal part of California the other times,

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 23:27:46

Security is nice, but just make sure you are smelling a few roses on the way. No point in dying with a pile if you got no kids. I got a couple of early deaths with males in my family, and I’m always aware that time is limited.

 
 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:09:18

Better that tax money is raised and spent locally than nationally.

Unless of course, you are a NeoCon-Progressive Party member. If that’s the case, then money raised and spent locally is anathema to being of sound mind and character.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:34:42

Federal control should be anathema to conservatives, whether by carrot or stick.

Damn it people gotta get an idea of the real world practical limits on power and this is one of them.

A young student seeking to learn Kung fu asked the master how long it would take him to become a master. The master told him 10 years if he studied and worked hard for 6 hours every day. The student then asked, what if I work twelve hours a day, will it take me only 5 years? The master said, no, then it will take you twenty.

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Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 20:41:32

Kung Foo master calls for shorter workday. I smell a commie!

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 23:29:30

Not commie, learned from Sho Nuff, the Shogun of Harlem. Didn’t you see The Last Dragon?

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 07:46:46

Better that tax money is raised and spent locally than nationally.

As long as you have some checks and balances in place. Otherwise it can spiral out of control and you end up paying $8000 or more in property tax on an unremarkable house and get to watch your municipal employed neighbors retire with a pension while you scramble to save.

Got TABOR?

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Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 08:10:15

Funny how proud you are of TABOR, and at the same time, how you support massive federal spending on the environment and medicine.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 10:34:38

We already spend more than anyone on medicine. Everyone else with a national health system spends far less per capita than we do. And that’s a fact you can take to the bank.

And I’d rather spend money keeping the environment clean than spend it on the world’s biggest military.

But don’t assume that I’m for wasteful spending. Far from it, which is why I like TABOR. It forces our local governments to be careful with how money is spent. Just because I want careful spending doesn’t mean I don’t want them to do stuff. I just like to get bang for the buck. And with our current healthcare system, which is the most expensive one in the world, we certainly don’t get the bang for our buck.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 10:36:47

Funny how proud you are of TABOR

I’ll admit, I get a kick out of all the property taxes you guys pay and love to rub in how TABOR keeps my local taxes low.

And we have legal MJ too! ;-)

 
 
 
 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:25:47

I’d love to see Ben ban the topic of global warming from the blog entirely. It wastes the candlepower better spent looking at something where some agreement is actually possible.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:40:03

That’s right. We may as well ask Mormons, Jews and Islamists to agree on the nature of God as to get true believers in global warming to hold hands and sing Kumbaya with the skeptics.

Religious arguments are fundamentally intractable.

Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 15:42:57

Is science a religion now?

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-26 00:07:47

When wasn’t it?

 
 
 
Comment by Hi-Z
2014-04-25 07:55:58

I like to read the AGW banter. You can skip it if you dislike it.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 18:32:51

Different Strokes. Whachoo talkin bout Willis?

But I worry that it is one topic that allows the trolls to easily suck the life out of the heart of a days righteous anger at the REIC.

I’ll take the nonresponse of all but two naysayers as agreement with my position.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-26 00:08:56

Absolutimento, and I do so!

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Comment by The Zima Guy
2014-04-25 12:38:16

Please no banning of any kind except maybe overtly vulgar postings. You can skip if you don’t like.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-26 00:10:17

“You can skip if you don’t like.”

Absolutimento, and I do so!

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 00:59:15

Elizabeth Warren
Mass. appeal
The musings of a star Democrat leave a big question unanswered
Apr 26th 2014 | WASHINGTON, DC | From the print edition

AMONG the people who noticed that something was wrong with how banks were issuing credit before the financial crisis was a Harvard professor called Elizabeth Warren. Her prescience helped to propel her from obscurity to Congress, where she is now the senior senator for Massachusetts. Politics occasionally provides openings for youthful candidates to soar. Mrs Warren’s ascent is more unusual: she was a 63-year-old grandmother when she first stood for election. After little more than a year in office she has become one of her party’s stars, constantly fending off questions about a presidential run in 2016.

The strength of Mrs Warren’s appeal to Democrats requires some explaining. Republicans have become skilled, perhaps too much so, at tapping into anti-establishment feelings among their base. Mrs Warren inspires similar feelings among Democratic activists, though the establishment she has in mind, which consists of the country’s financial elite and its supporters in Congress, is a different one. Though Democrats are less prone to fratricide than Republicans, Mrs Warren’s willingness to take on members of her own party adds to her charm. In her new book, “A Fighting Chance”, a mixture of autobiography and campaign war stories, she describes a dinner with Larry Summers, then an economic adviser to President Barack Obama, who told her to stop criticising the administration if she wanted to have any influence over it. Mrs Warren ignored him.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-04-25 05:50:46

I won’t buy that. She is a statist.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 06:01:40

With high cheek bones… :-)

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:27:47

Kinda looks like a beaver (or a mole for the banks). It’s okay because she’ll have three years experience ruling the serfs from the senate by 2016. She’ll be properly used to the neofeudal serfs bowing and scraping to her.

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Comment by rms
2014-04-25 07:09:09

“It’s okay because she’ll have three years experience ruling the serfs from the senate by 2016.”

+1 Has she made the pilgrimage to the Western Wall?

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:14:06

Progressives sure are in a mad rush to bow to all things Warren.

I wonder why.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:16:23

She needs a little rouge for those high cheek bones, don’t ya think?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 07:49:36

Progressives sure are in a mad rush to bow to all things Warren.

I wonder why.

Because she isn’t Hillary?

 
Comment by Dave of the North
2014-04-25 11:06:18

To Democrats, Warren represents the youth wing of the party (compared to Hillary and Biden)…

 
 
 
 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-25 06:07:56

Didn’t she vote for Yellin? That’s all you need to know how much she cares about the little guys.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:17:54

Bwahahhahaha Chief Lieawatha being sold as something other than a party hack. She. Is. A. Senator. A few talking point sound bites here and there and then they all go back and laugh at the little people.

I’d rather elect Hillary. At least with her we get good Old Bubba and his shenanigans. Kinda like brother Billy Carter.

Bubba Beer?

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 06:20:07

I kinda miss the bimbo eruptions.

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:11:31

So I take it that Warren is The Economist’s latest darling?

The Economist used to be a great publication. Sad what has happened to it during the past 20 years.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 09:06:55

So true.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:20:50

Sad what has happened to it during the past 20 years.

Sounds like what Bob Dole said this week about his newly turned wackjob Republican Party.

Yea, I know, he’s a “statist”. Good grief.

Comment by tj
2014-04-25 17:12:17

yes, comrade, he definitely is a statist. that rino was always a statist. good grief.

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Comment by jane
2014-04-25 23:04:56

Real question (I must live under a rock) - I just skim the articles for content - have they become editorialized with a statist slant? Thanks.

It’s hard to keep up with what you should “like” and what you should “de-friend” and why.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:02:27

For how many years to come will the Fed continually promise to raise interest rates “next year”?

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:19:07

In the words of Bullwinkle Moose, “This time for sure.”

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 07:50:40

As long as they can get away with it.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:15:38

Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-04-24 12:25:54

Not really. Deacons cannot confect the Eucharist nor can they grant absolution.

They can’t perform the sacrificial rites to the old gods either. but I think they can for the new. It must still be done before a tree with the face carved on it though, and only during a vernal equinox. Wildlings are not permitted.

What a bunch of hocus pocus mumbo jumbo.

Thanks to all who offered great comments on my mention of violin bowmaker Geza Balint’s work as a Catholic deacon.

What I meant to suggest is not that he necessarily was authorized by the Catholic church to perform all of their most sacred rituals; obviously granting such privileges to married men would instantly end the celibacy of the priests, and all catholics would soon thereafter effectively be converted to Lutheranism.

Rather I mean that Geza served his parishioners as a pastor, in lieue of a sufficient number of priests available in the area to fill the need.

“It must still be done before a tree with the face carved on it though, and only during a vernal equinox. Wildlings are not permitted.”

I’d love to hear further clarification on the meaning of that fascinating comment!

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 05:55:15

“Rather I mean that Geza served his parishioners as a pastor, in lieue of a sufficient number of priests available in the area to fill the need.”

Which is the true meaning of priesthood, when you think about it. Serving others. Helping others. Providing comfort when it is needed.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 06:05:55

Which is the true meaning of priesthood

Spreading the good news?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:27:37

That’s what I thought it was, but now I stand corrected. It apparently has more to do with sprinkling holy water hither and yon, blessing wine to turn it into water, and such…

 
Comment by scdave
2014-04-25 09:25:01

Serving others. Helping others. Providing comfort when it
is needed ??

= Jesuit…..

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:23:52

Serving others. Helping others. Providing comfort when it
is needed

The tide will turn.

The Francis factor: Pope’s economic ideas rattle GOP - Politico
http://www.politico.com/…/pope-francis-catholic-church-republicans-gop-econ...‎The Francis factor: Pope’s economic ideas rattle GOP. Pope Francis is shown. | Reuters. It’s unclear whether Francis’s views will fray the ties …

What the Republican Party Can Learn From Pope Francis
Influential figures around the GOP say it could learn a lot about openness, populism, humility, and courage from the Catholic leader.

http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/11/what-the-republican-party-can-learn-from-pope-francis/281478/

For his party to survive, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich believes the GOP needs to broaden its appeal beyond “the infamous 47 percent.” Conservative activist Ralph Reed would rebrand the Republican Party as a force of compassion—feed the poor and clothe the naked. Republican strategist John Feehery says the GOP craves a populist leader—”a happy warrior.”

Their model: Pope Francis.

“What Francis is doing,” Reed said, “is rebalancing the Catholic Church’s message to stress the pastoral mission of good works and service to people before getting to ideology. What he’s not doing is jettisoning the Catholic doctrine. What about that is not a model for the Republican Party?”

For top Republicans, Catholics in particular, the pontiff’s headline-seizing efforts to reverse negative stereotypes of one of the world’s oldest and most ossified institutions—almost exclusively through symbolic gestures—stands as an example for the GOP. The Republican Party, according to polls, is viewed by many in the United States as insular, intolerant and lacking compassion for the poor while consorting with the rich.

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Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 18:47:41

The Democratic Party hates religion and the religious. At their core they don’t like anything that isn’t free love dope smoking hippy commie abortion on demand.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 08:02:39

Rather I mean that Geza served his parishioners as a pastor, in lieue of a sufficient number of priests available in the area to fill the need.

According to Canon Law, only an ordained Priest can serve as a Parochial Pastor.

What I meant to suggest is not that he necessarily was authorized by the Catholic church to perform all of their most sacred rituals; obviously granting such privileges to married men would instantly end the celibacy of the priests and all catholics would soon thereafter effectively be converted to Lutheranism.

Why would that be? Eastern rite Catholic churches have never required priestly celibacy. Not to mention the Orthodox Churches. This really isn’t as a big a deal as some people think. As I said yesterday, I wouldn’t be surprised if Francis end the celibacy rule, and to be honest I hope he does.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 10:55:15

“According to Canon Law, only an ordained Priest can serve as a Parochial Pastor.”

Apparently Martin Luther found a work-around, and the Catholic church failed to kill him for doing so, despite their best efforts.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 12:48:26

Yeah, he started his own church. That doesn’t change the rules in the RCC. A Deacon cannot be a pastor in the RCC.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:26:54

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-24 16:05:07

Uncle Fed, the dead cat bounce was in 2010 (prompted by the homebuyer tax credit). We are in the next cycle at this point (almost 7-8 years from the prior peak).

There is a huge flaw in your logic, as this is not a normal cycle, but rather one with the normal cyclical correction to a stable price equilibrium arrested by massive top-down intervention to prevent prices from bottoming out. Hence, as Uncle Fed correctly notes, what looks like a recovery is actually a financially-engineered dead cat bounce which foolish investors mistook for a recovery.

The mistake in your analysis will cost you dearly, and belief manipulation will not save you from your losses.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 03:31:16

If cheap debt allowed people to buy homes at higher prices, then why did the bottom in prices only form once institutions started to buy for ALL CASH?

The rise off the bottom has clearly been far more accelerated than a “normal” cycle due to lower interest rates (ie. we reached a level commensurate with a cyclical peak much faster than prior cycles).

You saw the analysis by Neuro the other day using the inflation adjusted Shiller data (from Shiller’s Yale website), comparing today’s price level to home price peaks in ‘79 and ‘89. The same analysis can be done on the inflation adjusted troughs:

1974: RHPI = 102.5
1982: RHPI = 103.3
1996: RHPI = 106.7
2012: RHPI = 114.1

Inherent in these calculations is the BLS measure of CPI. And we know those calculation methods have changed over the years. The biggest group of changes that I’m aware of was based on the Boskin Commission, which provided their report in 1996. That report noted that measures of CPI overstated inflation by 1.3% prior to 1996. From that point forward, the BLS began to incorporate changes into the CPI calculation to reduce this bias.

In other words, the CPI inherent in the “inflation adjusted” calculations by Shiller was different after 1996.

You can ignore this and point to inflation adjusted trough in 2012, saying that prices should have fallen by another ~10% in order to fully correct. And that it was the Fed’s fault that we didn’t fall by that additional 10%.

Fine.

However, when you are talking about 10 points of CPI over 16 years, that’s approximately 60bps of annual inflation.

For those who are the perma-bulls though, it is also incorrect to assume that the reported CPI post 1996 was 1.3% annually LOWER than pre-1996. The BLS has not incorporated changes to eliminate the reported bias by Boskin. In 2000, the GAO released a report on the remaining bias after a number of changes had been implemented. The remaining bias was estimated at 0.73% to 0.9% annually (inflation was now reported as 40bps to 57bps LOWER than before 1996).

If you take out the changes to CPI (so that you have the SAME measure of CPI before and after 1996–the Boskin Commission never happened), the inflation-adjusted trough as measured by Shiller would have been LOWER than the 114.1 reported. If the BLS has removed 40bps per year of bias (the low end of the bias removal from the 2000 GAO report), then the 114.1 would have been +/-108. If the BLS has removed 57bps per year of bias (the high end of the estimate from the 2000 GAO report), then the 114.1 would have been +/- 105.

Yes, the Fed tried desperately to prop up home prices.

However, IT IS EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO CONVINCE SOMEONE TO BUY AN ASSET WITH LEVERAGE THAT IS FALLING IN VALUE. Ultimately it took institutions with capital willing to pay cash based on rental yields to form the bottom in prices.

Only after the bottom was formed did people have the confidence to borrow money to buy homes…which then propelled prices upward as fast as we saw…far faster than they should have gone up.

You may call the above analysis “belief manipulation”. I call it testing the theory through rigorous data analysis (that we didn’t reach a cyclical bottom). And yes, I communicated with Shiller to discuss his methodologies and the Boskin findings on CPI. I didn’t do this blind.

You claim that the Fed kept us from reaching a cyclical bottom. Fine then, how much further down do you think prices should have gone in 2011/2012? On what basis is your math done?

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 03:38:34

And since I’m sure you would like to see my sources (as any good scientist would):

Shiller’s data (XLS file)

http://www.econ.yale.edu/~shiller/data/Fig2-1.xls

The Boskin Commission Report

http://www.ssa.gov/history/reports/boskinrpt.html

(You’ll note in the italicized language at the top that the bias was noted at 1.1%…however, note farther down the page:

“5. Changes in the CPI have substantially overstated the actual rate of price inflation, by about 1.3 percentage points per annum prior to 1996 (the extra 0.2 percentage point is due to a problem called formula bias inadvertently introduced in 1978 and fixed this year). It is likely that a large bias also occurred looking back over at least the last couple of decades.”

The bias was about 1.3% annually PRIOR to 1996, about 1.1% IN 1996)

And a link to the GAO Report from 2000:

http://www.gao.gov/products/GGD-00-50

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:34:14

once institutions started to buy for ALL CASH

Institutions bought with cash OBTAINED ON CREDIT. You will learn about OPM very soon.

What’s the point in arguing with him, he’s a fraud shill speculator who could not be convinced if Shiva and Vishnu came down from heaven and told him to sign.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:31:00

once institutions started to buy for ALL CASH

Institutions bought with cash OBTAINED ON CREDIT.

KAPOOM!!!

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 04:54:12

“You claim that the Fed kept us from reaching a cyclical bottom. Fine then, how much further down do you think prices should have gone in 2011/2012? On what basis is your math done?”

We’ve discussed this over and over again. And time and again, you don’t like the outcome. First you stated that you’re in the construction biz…. Then you stated you’re an engineer… Then you stated you’re a developer.

One last time, the answer is;

Resale housing prices never reached a point lower than the cost to build.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 05:58:53

And it didn’t hit that level in ‘74, ‘82 or ‘96 either. Are you suggesting people should expect a price level that hasn’t been seen in over 40 years?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:26:11

Because there was never a global credit bubble in 74, 82 or 96.

Are you suggesting that resale prices that are 300%+ higher than the cost to build is normal?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:34:35

I’m not suggesting current prices are normal. I’ve said that we have overshot “normal”.

However, you are expecting price levels that haven’t been seen in 40+ years.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:36:19

Then you better go back an look at historical prices again.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:38:02

It’s not a matter of my “expectations”. The costs are costs and that’s something you seem reticent to wrap your mind around.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:15:20

I’m glad Shiller has a convenient “Real Building Cost Index”.

1974: 97.1
1982: 89.0
1996: 77.9
2014: 85.4

Real Home Price Index

1974: RHPI = 102.5
1982: RHPI = 103.3
1996: RHPI = 106.7
2012: RHPI = 114.1

Ratio of Home Price Index to Building Index (relative measures)

1974: 105%
1982: 116%
1996: 137%
2012: 134%

So, we were about 30% more expensive relative to construction costs than 1974 at this trough in 2012, and about the same as the last trough in 1996.

You think prices should be how much lower? 65%?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:33:35

What does looking at the Case-Shiller Index tell you about collapsing fundamental demand?

The answer: SQUAT.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:40:44

What I think prices “ought” to be isn’t material to the conversation. The fact remains that current asking prices are 300% higher than input costs.

 
Comment by polly
2014-04-25 10:21:47

What were the mortgage interest rates in 1974?

 
Comment by ibbots
2014-04-25 10:34:50

It’s hard to argue with the data and RW brings the data. I’m sure he is mostly delusional from attempting to calculate his incalculable losses, but the data don’t lie.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 11:09:12

“The fact remains that current asking prices are 300% higher than input costs.”,/b>

Back at ya.

 
Comment by mathguy
2014-04-25 13:57:55

yup,

current typical san diego ppsf = 275-400 $ - even at a cost to build of $100/sq ft, that is 275% - 400% over the cost of building.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-26 00:15:26

Stop confronting the HBB’s resident real estate shills with math facts. No fun atall!

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:08:07

And don’t restate who I am. I work for a real estate investment company who invests in various types of real estate, including residential land/development/construction. My educational background includes a masters from a well respected engineering school–the subject matter included substantial financial analysis (others from my program were responsible for some of the insane RMBS products).

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:19:58

Clearly know nothing about.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:36:02

Specifically what do you do for this Real Estate Investment Company?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:45:03

Source, underwrite, negotiate, manage investments.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:49:24

And BS people into parting with the $$ for your junk.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-04-25 07:02:29

“don’t restate who I am…”

RW, HA is easily confused. He restates many things according to his confusion. Like 4.4 million housing units in California, vacant and ready to come on the market in the next 5 minutes!

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:41:30

underwrite, negotiate, …. investments.

Thanks for the honesty. That is what I was looking for. Underwrite and negotiate. Sorry, this shows you have a vested interest in lying and have to lie for your job.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 08:07:37

I have a vested interest in residential because we made the investments in 2009-2012…and was ridiculed here for doing so. Up until then, I was on the same page as everyone else.

I went from being the “permabear” in our office to being relatively bullish based on the crashed prices, and now I’m becoming much less bullish on future appreciation, which is one of the reasons we are selling…I have not yet become a bear again.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 18:53:48

What are you doing here mister mostly bullish. Just answer this, is it a good time to buy a house now? Not months or years ago, now.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 05:04:36

“Only after the bottom was formed did people have the confidence to borrow money to buy homes…which then propelled prices upward as fast as we saw…far faster than they should have gone up.”

And this is is the other truth you conveniently like to ignore;

Housing demand as fallen every year consecutively since 2006. Troughs are never formed on collapsing demand.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:00:13

Troughs are never formed on collapsing demand?

What are you talking about?

Troughs are created BECAUSE of collapsing demand.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:18:14

WRONG.

Troughs and bottoms are formed on accelerating transactions at market clearing prices, ALWAYS.

For someone claiming to be so smart you sure are stupid.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:42:03

Moving the goalposts again on the data I see?

Accelerating transactions at market clearing prices is NOT the same as comparing overall sales activity.

Let’s explore total sales of existing homes by year, shall we?

2009: 4,334,000
2010: 4,182,000
2011: 4,263,000
2012: 4,656,000
2013: 5,087,000

Notice that trough in sales which created the trough in values? Notice the acceleration of sales in 2012 that continued into 2013 and reversed the trend?

Where is your collapsing demand?

Looks like your statement: “Housing demand as fallen every year consecutively since 2006.” is yet another lie.

Link to follow.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:44:27

Changing the subject again huh Mr. SmokeAndMirrors?

Read it again; Accelerating transaction volume at market clearing prices.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:05:09

You’re right, accelerating transaction volume reversed the direction of home prices.

Can you tell us again how the increases in transaction volume in 2011, 2012, and 2013 is consistent with your constant theme of collapsing demand?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:07:27

That’s not an acceleration my friend nor were clearing prices reached.

Try again.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:16:28

Um, the pace of sales increasing is NOT acceleration?

lol.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:18:38

Oh….. Are they the original nar numbers or the restated ones?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:23:34
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:36:12

I’m confused…the St. Louis Fed #s are the same as mine…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:39:12

Look again CherryPicker.

Where is the explosive transaction volume again?

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 08:04:50

Let me ask a serious question:

What SHOULD the sales volume be today?

Should we be comparing to the bubble years, when the equivalent of high speed home trading was going on? Or a different timeframe? What timeframe is the right one to see as “normal”?

I don’t have an answer, other than I think comparing to 2004-2007 as “normal” is wrong.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 08:10:52

Answer the question.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 09:34:17

Your question?

There is no “explosive transaction volume”. But volume did increase from approximately 4MM to approximately 5MM from 2010 to 2013.

I think, the lower end of a reasonable sales pace is probably about 4MM, a pretty darn fast pace is 5.5MM, and a “good” pace is in the 4.5MM to 5MM range.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 09:36:13

That s right. It didn’t happen.

 
 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 05:13:30

“If cheap debt allowed people to buy homes at higher prices, then why did the bottom in prices only form once institutions started to buy for ALL CASH?”

It didn’t form. We didn’t get anywhere near “the bottom”.

If it had, we wouldn’t need government-backed “investors” to prop up the ongoing sham.

If it had, we wouldn’t be focused on preserving wealth. We’d be focused on creating it.

The middle class would be expanding, not contracting.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 05:56:51

Any response to the Shiller data that supports my comment regarding the bottom that formed in 2012?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 06:24:13

I already did that… one more time.

Resale housing prices never reached a point lower than the cost to build.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 06:38:19

My response to most all data at this point in the cycle is garbage in, garbage out. Everything is heavily massaged and managed. But keep driving by looking in the rear view mirror.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 06:59:33

You haven’t been reading my posts for long then if you think I’m focused entirely in the rearview mirror…it’s very hard to invest that way. As far back as mid-2011 (if not farther), I was looking FORWARD based on trends, noting the distress leaving the system in CA (tracking the LPS non-current loan rates). I posted that data and the extrapolation of the non-current loan rates, showing how CA was dealing with their distress and other states were not. Those projections were pretty much dead-on.

Starting in 2009, we were purchasing land after the crash, with the knowledge that CA has a long-term structural supply problem (CEQA, etc.), and that the land would eventually and inevitably go up in value.

Starting in late 2011, we started acquiring homes for rent, at prices that provided cash flow.

And as noted here, we are now in the process of selling, because prices don’t grow to the sky, and won’t this time either. The recovery in prices happened faster than we expected, and it’s time to exit.

That said, the same conditions that caused my company to stop investing altogether in residential starting in the early 2000’s don’t really exist today (lots of development, ridiculous underwriting for mortgages), and won’t IMHO until we see a lot more development, or there is a broader economic contraction.

It’s funny…I was turned onto this blog from one of our investors who thought I would appreciate the thinking here that was along the same lines of what we were reporting to him. I wonder what he would think now if he read the blog?

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-04-25 07:01:45

‘I wonder what he would think now if he read the blog?’

He’d want his money back? Oh, wait. He never paid anything, did he?

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:23:24

You haven’t been reading my posts for long then…

Ive been seeing your posts, but I rarely read them. I need not have been reading for more than a couple of minutes though to see you are rear view mirror driving because about 5 posts up you argue that the pace of sales is increasing based on 2013 data.

Hack and shill, shill and hack
From whence you came
Please go back.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:24:39

“Any response to the Shiller data…

Data schemata. Only an idiot believes that data isn’t manipulated.

Why do I say so? Because data in and of itself isn’t meaningful. People apply mean TO IT.

There has been no bottom because the game is heavily distorted. The rules are changed at a whim to suit the interests of those who stand to benefit.

If there had been a true bottom, the journey back would take decades, not 20-50 months.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:33:46

Here’s a link to some of my analysis from mid-2012:

http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=7237#comment-2058203

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:37:16

“Only an idiot believes that data isn’t manipulated.”

Maybe I am an idiot, then, because I see no motive for them to manipulate their data.

However, anyone who believes what you see in three-months-stale data can be used to say anything meaningful about where the market is headed today is a fool.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:42:47

You’re running RenTrollFraud.

“Resale housing prices never reached a point lower than the cost to build.”

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 07:43:02

Let’s be clear.

You said we never hit a trough, that we were somehow propped up by the Fed.

I showed data from Shiller that showed that trough clearly formed in 2012.

I’ve said nothing about where we are headed except that I think prices are currently too high, I don’t expect a price correction until there is substantial additional development or an economic shock, and that we are exiting residential now.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:46:38

Read it again;

Accelerating transaction volume at market clearing prices.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 08:21:02

“Maybe I am an idiot, then, because I see no motive for them to manipulate their data.”

You are kidding me, right? Wow….

Further, people can extrapolate many different conclusions from the same data if they so choose.

And they do. Constantly.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 09:38:53

Question, when do groups like LPS make more money (ie. they are able to sell their data to more people)?

When people are panicked about foreclosures, or when people aren’t worried about foreclosures at all?

Based on that answer, IF they were to skew the data, which way do you think they skew the data?

Also, IF it was found that they “cook the books”, how many customers would they lose?

All-in-all, what incentive do they have to make the markets look better than they actually are, if in fact, they are crappy?

 
Comment by Brandon Boise
2014-04-25 10:02:53

So let me see if I have this right: Schiller data is massaged and “garbage in/garbage out”, but HA’s Movoto, Zillow, etc. collapse and crater links are infallible gospel?

I’m a neophyte and need to know what to trust ;)

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-25 10:08:44

So, you were buying houses in 2011 because they cash flow and selling them off in 2013. Why do I wonder if there is a lot you’re not telling?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 10:11:39

“Brandon” eh? ;-)

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 10:13:32

Accelerating transaction volume at market clearing prices didn’t happen.

Why change the subject RenTroll hogwash? ;-)

 
Comment by ibbots
2014-04-25 10:53:18

There was definitely a trough in 2011-2012. It is laughable that anyone denies that.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 11:07:37

You better find a new definition for it then.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-04-25 11:32:41

“So, you were buying houses in 2011 because they cash flow and selling them off in 2013. Why do I wonder if there is a lot you’re not telling?”

The best investment strategy that I know of is “buy low, sell high”.

The rental yields when we started were in the 7% range (cap rate, +/-). Given where prices have gone, the rental yields are much lower based on the current values (still a 7% on our cost though).

There are better places to put the money at this stage of the game. It isn’t complicated. That is all.

Think of it like buying a long-term bond…you bought the bond when yields were 7%, and the market has now pushed the yields to 4.5%.

At that point, you can either:

1. Keep collecting 7% to maturity; or
2. Sell the bond, realize a capital gain, and redeploy the capital elsewhere.

If you are thinking “they’re selling because they aren’t getting their cash flow”, that’s not the answer. The plan was to always sell eventually, and the prices went up faster than we expected, so we are selling earlier than expected.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:27:11

There has been no bottom because the game is heavily distorted.

Heavily distorted games can’t have a bottom? How and why?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:12:23

Bottoms are reached in markets when there is capitulation selling, with the Fed propping up housing prices and helping banks hang on to foreclosures we never have reached that point. Since the banks have never been forced to sell their REOs for whatever the market will pay there has been no market clearing and no bottom.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:39:30

Does the housing market’s silent spring in 2014 have you concerned?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:41:00

Asian markets slide after US housing slowdown
by Guy Bentley
April 24, 2014, 6:32am

Asian markets are in retreat after the US posted worse than expected home sales and Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe confirmed that a trade deal with the US had not yet been agreed.

It was hoped that a successful free trade deal between the US and Japan would be precursor to the completion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, which would erase tariffs among twelve countries.

Questions over the strength and sustainability of the US recovery combined with a declining Chinese growth rate have raised a note of scepticism over the global recovery.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:42:37

Which Canadian Bank Is Most at Risk From a Housing Slowdown?
By Benjamin Sinclair - April 22, 2014

With all the attention placed on Canada’s housing market, there is a lot of concern about how the Canadian banks are affected. But which ones are the most exposed?

When comparing the different banks, it is important to keep one thing in mind: Canada is not like the United States. Here, mortgages are the lowest-risk loans that banks can hold. But a housing downturn would have other knock-on effects on the Canadian economy. Home and condo developers would struggle. People would lose their jobs. Businesses and individuals may have trouble paying their loans and credit card bills. Economic growth would slow.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 08:17:21

So what happen when Canada’s banks implode? Will Uncle Fed also bail them out and prop up the loonie?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-25 10:10:31

They have their own snares on the taxpayer in case of defaults on mortgages.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:44:55

Before anyone suggests that Canada’s housing slowdown is off topic, let me remind you all how many all-cash Canadian investors drove U.S. home prices skyward in recent years.

Ottawa endured ‘extreme’ slowdown in housing market during Q1: Royal LePage

OBJ Staff
Published on April 08, 2014

The price of detached houses in Ottawa edged up as condo prices fell during the first three months of 2014, according to a new survey by Royal LePage Real Estate Services.

The real estate company says the price for an average detached bungalow was up 2.2 per cent to $395,667 compared to the same time last year, while the price of two-storey homes increased 2.0 per cent to an average of $398,500.

“It is common to see a slowdown over the winter months, but 2014 has been one of the most extreme that I have witnessed,” John Rogan, broker and manager of Ottawa brokerage Royal LePage Performance Realty,said in a press release.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 01:48:24

Housing Slowdown Imperils Fannie Freddie Wind Down
BY Dan Freed | 04/23/14 - 03:29 PM EDT.
Fannie and Freddie story updated from 1:04 pm to include statement from BlackRock in eighth paragraph.

NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Put another nail in the coffin of President Obama’s efforts to wind down Fannie Mae (FNMA_) and Freddie Mac (FMCC_).

Housing numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau Wednesday showed a 14.5% drop in new home sales in March, far more than analysts estimated. While some pointed to the cold winter, a more commonly cited culprit was higher prices.

The number is just the latest in a string of discouraging housing data, and it comes less than a week before a scheduled vote on legislation introduced by Sens. Tim Johnson (D, SD) and Mike Crapo (R., ID) aimed at winding down Fannie and Freddie, a stated goal of President Obama.

Housing experts realize winding down the government sponsored entities will make it harder for many Americans to buy homes, one of many reasons that goal is thought difficult to impossible to achieve even without the recent weak sales data.

But that data is further underscoring the issue, something one lobbyist believes is making Obama Administration housing officials especially tense ahead of Tuesday’s scheduled vote, which may end up being delayed due to a lack of support for the bill.

But the likelihood that Johnson Crapo will make it more difficult for Americans to buy homes is just one of several reasons the bill looks doomed.

PIMCO’s new CEO Douglas Hodge, published an essay April 11 arguing the legislation suffers from a “significant oversight” in that it does not offer any new protections for investors in mortgage securities who were burned during the financial crisis.

Officials in the Obama Administration met with executives at PIMCO and BlackRock Tuesday, along with a representative from SIFMA, Wall Street’s main lobbying group, according to three people with knowledge of the talks. E-mail messages to spokespeople for the White House, PIMCO, and SIFMA were not returned. A BlackRock spokesman wrote, “we maintain on-going discussions with legislators and regulators about a variety of issues relevant to our business.”

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 05:37:15

The democrats own the senate.

Why is obama having trouble?

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:45:19

He is the Messiah, it is part of the job description that he falls three times.

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Comment by rms
2014-04-25 07:20:57

“Officials in the Obama Administration met with executives at PIMCO and BlackRock Tuesday, along with a representative from SIFMA, Wall Street’s main lobbying group, according to three people with knowledge of the talks. E-mail messages to spokespeople for the White House, PIMCO, and SIFMA were not returned.”

No collusion happening in this transparent administration. No sir!

 
 
Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-25 05:26:48

Yes, No, Maybe.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 02:55:17

If you haven’t already dumped your house you mis-characterize as an “investment”, you’re going learn a very costly mistake for that mis-characterization.

Remember, houses are depreciating assets. They don’t appreciate.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 05:52:00

I appreciate my house :-)

Comment by scdave
2014-04-25 09:43:40

So do I…

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:57:10

You appreciate 2banana’s house? Are you two an item?

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-04-25 10:12:11

Do you speak soothing words to it?

That is supposed to work with plants, not sure about sticks and bricks.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 10:48:24

Do you speak soothing words to it?

I do!

Thank you for being almost paid off, well maintained and a joyful place.

Thank you for the wood stove and generator for the many power outages we seem to be having in the last few years.

and finally, thank you for never taking a home equity loan even while my neighbors were going crazy with the “free” money…

:-)

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Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-04-25 06:02:29

The “American Dream” is like belief in God.

The proof that owning your own house won’t make you financially secure? Most home owners my age have far less net worth than I do. Even in my 401k and IRAs, not counting my non retirement assets, I have far more net worth than people my age who own or are paying mortgages.

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 06:40:10

It blows my mind the amount of time and money that loanowners blow on stupid sh1t. Every single weekend is consumed with some kind of housing chore.

The opportunity cost of that lost time is what matters to me, not because I want a 2nd job, but because I have more interesting things to do with my time.

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-04-25 07:13:21

Exactly.

Personally, I’m lazy. I work out 6 days a week about 80 minutes per session, and after 40 hours of work and at 54, I don’t really feel like maintaining a McMansion. The smaller the space the better. And let someone else do the maintenance.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 07:55:38

I have better things to waste my time and money on. Like a big fat growing bank account approaching $1 million.

 
 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:29:43

Conversely, this is why I miss not having a house. I LIKE

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-04-25 07:41:40

“Every single weekend is consumed with some kind of housing chore.”

And they inevitably fail to include all the sweat equity costs in their assessment of the value of home ownership.

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Comment by Brandon Boise
2014-04-25 10:06:42

Every weekend I’ve been working in the yard: mowing the lawn, pulling weeds, spring clean up, etc. It is a lot of work.

….and I rent. I must not have negotiated my lease correctly.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 11:06:17

Sound like you’re an easy target.

 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-04-25 09:45:54

not counting my non retirement assets, I have far more net worth than people my age who own or are paying mortgages ??

So what Bill…..

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 11:14:16

… I have far more net worth than people my age who own or are paying mortgages.

That’s a nearly meaningless statement. There are plenty of mortgage-paying homeowners who have higher net worths than people their age who are not paying mortgages.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 11:20:58

That’s a backward statement. Prove it.

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Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 12:00:38

What needs to be proved? Bill’s around 53 or something. Take any age in that general range - 40, 50, 60. Now take the average net worth of all Americans of that age and consider all of the people who have a new worth higher than the average. Millions of them will be mortgage-paying homeowners.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-04-25 03:57:27

Let’s hear about Applebee’s wait times (or as Ben calls it, the Burrito Index) and other first hand observations in your local market!

I posted a few weeks ago that 5 restaurants I observed around noon on a Thursday all had overflowing amounts of business at lunch. This is in the Sacramento foothills.

Last night, on my way home from work, traffic was very heavy. I have not seen such long lines of backed up travelers since 2007. Something in this area is driving (pun intended) the economy and it is showing up on the street level.

Today, there are new home communities under construction, housing rental availability is the lowest I have seen in several years and the commercial real estate industry is complaining about a shortage of available office space to meet leasing demand. My business is growing and my income is rising again.

Compare this to 2010 when you could zip along the freeway any time of day driving 65 mph, office space was forecasted to have a 15-year supply (at the then minimal absorption level), and you could not find a bulldozer or a housing framer anywhere. My annual income was down 60% below my 5-year average.

I understand the fact that housing is expensive in California. I also understand it was bubbly in 2013. I see the fact that it is less bubbly going into 2014 as a good event. Prices may even drop for a while which is appropriate. However, during my whole life here, people have been complaining about housing prices in California and how their children will never be able to buy a house.

The point of my observations is to illustrate that 2014 is much, much different from the 2008-2010 trends when the housing bubble burst and decimated the economy and jobs. Today, we are in a rising economic and employment environment. Nothing I see today is evidentiary of a big bust in housing or employment.

Comment by oxide
2014-04-25 06:08:52

Occasional House listing, this one in Frederick, MD:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1727-Dogwood-Dr-Frederick-MD-21701/36843076_zpid/

It’s a 1983 3/1 no basement rambler on 1/8 acre in the Frederick burbs. Sold as is, but it really doesn’t seem to be in bad shape.

Jul 1998: Sold $98,000
Sep 2013: HUD repo $169,816
Mar 2014: Listed $156,000
Apr 2014: Price drop $135,000.

My guess is that the owner bought in 1998, took out a giant bubble HELOC, blew the money on boats and boob jobs and never made a payment. What is surprising(?) is the price drop. No investors for this very flippable house? This alone is an indicator that demand is down in Frederick.

Comment by rms
2014-04-25 07:30:10

I peddle past a sturdy 3/1 that was bought as a fix-n-flip. It looks like they did a nice job, but it just won’t sell; likely because it’s a 3/1. The price will have to drop even more to move it.

Comment by oxide
2014-04-25 09:15:18

I agree. The real issue is the lack of a basement to expand into. That’s where a second bath usually goes.

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Comment by rms
2014-04-25 12:09:07

Actually this place probably has a basement, and it certainly is constructed of better materials than my spec house. However the solo bathroom makes it difficult to take-on a paying roommate if money gets tight. It would be an issue for me anyway; spoiled I suppose.

 
 
 
 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:49:49

Today, there are new home communities under construction, ….

There’s a crapload of these in my area BUT they won’t be able to sell at their asking prices. We’ve already established the fallacy in the belief that just because they are building they know what they are doing. Uncle Sugar saved many butts before.

Two days ago it was shown that they are adding a half a million or more new homes to an already saturate market.

Got popcorn?

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:53:12

Regarding your observations, even the ugliest person usually has some feature or two you can focus on to make them not so unpalatable.

Lola may be the Black Swan that shows this is not true though.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 10:25:52

Let’s hear about Applebee’s wait times (or as Ben calls it, the Burrito Index) and other first hand observations in your local market!

In my little burg, next to none. Then again, for the price of a meal at say, Red Robin, I can cook a tenderloin dinner at home. I know which one I prefer.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 11:29:01

The point of my observations is to illustrate that 2014 is much, much different from the 2008-2010 trends when the housing bubble burst and decimated the economy and jobs. Today, we are in a rising economic and employment environment. Nothing I see today is evidentiary of a big bust in housing or employment.

You don’t realize what you wrote there. Just before the crash in 2007/2008 there was low unemployment and probably lots of construction going on in your area. It was the bursting of the housing bubble that caused the rise in unemployment, not the other way around.

The one thing that’s better now is that there is a lot less construction going on nationally than there was at the peak of the last bubble. So the coming crash should have a smaller effect on the real economy.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:36:06

Let’s hear about Applebee’s wait times

Went to Rio’s Outback Steakhouse Wednesday. HUGE line, but it was Rio’s St. George Holiday or something.

Had Ribs n fries for 2, about $25 for 2. Much cheaper than I thought but a steak for one was about $25 AND $8 more for a nice salad.

Ribs were the usual oven baked so so stuff. Nothing like KC style. They were out of ketchup. wtf’s up with that? How can Outback be out of ketchup? Brazilians don’t eat ketchup like Americans.

Just finished some Brazilian oxtail stew. Have a nice weekend peeps.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 19:01:21

but it was Rio’s St. George Holiday or something.

It’s comments like this that make me question he lives in Rio for many years.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 04:45:11

So citizens are not happy living in a long term controlled democrat/corrupt state with high taxes, insane public unions goons and home to every liberal law that was ever dreamed?

Q. What is the first thing a public union goon does when he retires?

A. Move to a low tax and right-to-work state!

————————

Illinois is the worst place to live, say people who live in Illinois
Washington Post | April 24, 2014 at 5:57 pm | Mark Berman

Illinois is the worst, according to the people who live there.

A new Gallup poll is out with information about how people who live in states feel about these states. So now we know that people in Montana really, really like living in Montana, while people in Illinois and Rhode Island are pretty sure they don’t live in one of the best places in the country.

Montana and Alaska easily top the list of states viewed by residents as the best places to live. …

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 04:47:38

Public labor unions and food stamps are bankrupting this country!

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 04:57:10

A Brief History of American Welfare State
RealClearHistory.com | 05/09/2013 | Brian Vanyo

According to deficit forecasts in President Barack Obama’s latest budget, the national debt will surpass $20 trillion by 2016. If this occurs (and it is almost certain to occur), then Obama will add more to the national debt during his presidency than all prior presidents combined , despite collecting projected record-high tax receipts each year of his last term in office.

The largest expenditure in Obama’s budget — and the largest federal outlay in every budget since 1970 — is an expense item labeled “payments for individuals,” which includes spending on Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, unemployment benefits, disability payments, and other federal welfare subsidies. These payments comprised 65 percent of all federal spending in 2012 and are expected to grow to 70 percent in 2016. (By contrast, national defense spending was 19 percent of the federal budget in 2012 and will decrease to only 14 percent in 2016.)

——–

Detroit, Stockton, San Bernardino, Desert Hot Springs, etc. all tie their bankruptcies directly to out-of-control public union pensions.

They are the tip of the iceberg. The freight train of buying union votes with insane/sweetheart contracts is about to run over nearly every major city/state in public union goon “closed shop” states…

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:38:27

Obama will add more to the national debt during his presidency than all prior presidents combined ,

Reagan tripled the national debt. Obama might only double it during the worst Recession since the Great Depression with a gutted TrickleDown economy.

It’s numbers.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:36:24

It’s numbers.

It is our future or lack there of, due his adding of 10 trillion dollars worth of debt. How many trillions did Reagan add? BTW, did Obama win the cold war, tame inflation and create a robust recovery with rising real incomes for the middle class? I thought not.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 19:03:31

It’s easier to go from one inch to three than to go from 6 inches to twelve. Do we really need to tell you this Lola?

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 19:08:00

Reagan didn’t tame inflation. That was Paul Volcker, who accomplished the taming of inflation by creating a nasty recession.

 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 13:23:00

Most Americans don’t consider Social Security and Medicare to be welfare.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:40:02

That is because they paid for them in their pay checks. Sorry, can’t blame the ten trillion dollars in debt on those programs. Reagan made sure that the taxes collected paid for the benefits conferred. Obama named a commission to address the proper balance and then ignored its recommendations.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 15:11:23

I was referring to the title of the article of the 2Banana’s article = “A Brief History of American Welfare State”, which list SS and Medicare among the programs were problems.

Also, it’s important to remember that the Simpson-Bowles commission never released any recommendations. Its staff put together a document, but the commission didn’t actually vote in favor of it.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 19:06:13

Does anybody get social security or Medicare that didn’t pay in? (Seriously I don’t know. I’m not talking about living longer than what you paid in over a lifetime).

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 19:10:20

I’m pretty certain that everyone is eligible for Medicare when they reach the age of 65, regardless of whether they paid any Medicare taxes.

 
Comment by tresho
 
 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2014-04-25 05:55:44

“Q. What is the first thing a public union goon does when he retires?

“A. Move to a low tax and right-to-work state!”

And he does this because he changes hats, which is a logical thing to do.

If you are an earner and a saver then you should live in a high wage/high cost state while you are earning and saving. But when you stop earning and start spending what you saved then you should move to a low wage/low cost state where your dollar will go further.

And this goes for drawing a pension as well if one considers a pension to be a type of savings.

Comment by Combotechie
2014-04-25 05:59:12

I works with some folks who are from the Philippines. Their Plan A is to come to the U.S., work hard and save up a bunch of money, then move back to the Philippines and live like kings.

 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 06:16:39

You are forced to join a public union as a condition of employment
You are forced to pay union dues as a condition of employment
Public unions are the largest campaign contributors and supporters of liberals and democrats.
Public unions run their own candidates and no candidate without public union support will ever win a democratic primary in a closed shop state.
After winning office - the democrat politicians delivers sweetheart public union contracts as a reward for their support.

And what do public union goons do when they retire?

Do they live in the mess they left for their children or any non-public union goon taxpayer?

No - they flee from the very states, politicians and policies they fought and support their entire lives.

To the “enemy” states they trashed, mocked and attempted to destroy their entire lives.

Go look up the meaning of the word hypocrite.

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 06:45:30

This seems really, really personal to you.

Did your girlfriend dump you for some union goon firefighter back in the day?

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Comment by rms
2014-04-25 07:34:43

:)

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 07:25:15

The problem that I have with California and Illinois is the fundamental dishonesty of the liberal political leaders of those two states. If a state wants to pay its workers lavishly and gets permission from its populace for the pay, that is democracy. However, when political leaders promise lavish pensions, which is part of worker’s compensation, but make no realistic plans to pay for the promises that is fundamentally dishonest. California using realistic returns on pension funds has nearly a 900 billion dollar deficit in its pension funds. That does mean that California is being bankrupted by the promises and the same is true for Illinois. You can have limited government paid for with low taxes or you can have big government with high taxes. Liberals in this country since Reagan have tried to claim you can have low taxes on the middle class and still have big government which is a lie. Countries like Sweden heavily tax the middle class to support bigger government. However, they are honest about the trade-off.

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:43:46

You can have limited government paid for with low taxes or you can have big government with high taxes.

The biggest lie for the past 34 years is that worshiping the rich would create American prosperity and American jobs.

We did it. It failed. The experiment has proven to be bunk.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:31:52

Reagan succeeded, Obama failed. We only had eight years of Reaganomics the problem is we moved away from it and substituted demand side economics. Obama through his stimulus program and its lack of success showed that Reaganomics did not succeed due to a Keynesian stimulus but due to policies that promoted capital investment. Every action by Obama including Obamacare has depressed capital investment thus the anemic, at best, recovery.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 19:08:30

The biggest lie for the past 34 years is that worshiping the rich …

I have no love lost for the rich, but the biggest lie involved a green shirt and a webcam.

 
 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 11:35:50

Montana and Alaska easily top the list of states viewed by residents as the best places to live

Montana has the fifth lowest per capita income in the country.

 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-04-25 04:51:16

A bit of state politics, from yesterday:

“Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-04-24 11:26:03
NJ, CT, MD… the most densely populated states are still mostly empty land.”

I might make an exception for Rhode Island, but even RI is mostly empty land. Providence doesn’t take up much room. The only real “state” which isn’t hick is DC itself. A decade ago there was talk of lobbying for DC statehood. After all, DC has more population than both Vermong and Wyoming. I don’t think it will happen, simply because it would instantly add two permanent Democratic Reps and Senators. There is an idea floating around to annex all of DC residents to Maryland and convert the monuments and museums into a National Park, perhaps making the President and First Lady/Dude the only actual residents of DC. But DC doesn’t want that either.

On a side note, I was fishing through the state populations and was surprised to see that only one state lost population from 2010 to 2013; Rhode Island lost a thousand people. Even dreaded Michigan gained a small city. All the major migrations took place during 2000-2010, Nevada going gangbusters. The losses are in the protectorates: Puerto Rico lost a lot of people (I don’t know why), as did Northern Marianas Islands since the change in their labor laws.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 05:11:52

“Puerto Rico lost a lot of people (I don’t know why)”

Ever been to Puerto Rico?

All kidding aside, it’s a beautiful island. San Juan is weird, though. There’s the old section, and then the rest of it looks like a section of New York City was plopped down in tropics. The main roadway reminded me of the West Side Highway.

Comment by scdave
2014-04-25 09:53:05

Ever been to Puerto Rico ??

Lived there in 1973….

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 18:04:24

i talked to a guy from the states who has been in PR for quite a while. he says many left because they thought the economy was terrible. but when they got to the states they found it was even worse there. he said most of them have already come back.

nominal incomes here have fallen for about five straight years. it’s bad enough when real incomes fall (USA), but it’s much worse when nominal incomes fall. it co-insides nicely with when they implemented a 7% sales tax 6 or 7 years ago. the governor here is really worried about the economy, but he doesn’t have a clue how to fix it.

act 20 and 22 will help the economy given enough time, unless they keep doing stupid things like adding sales taxes.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 05:15:28

The states that gave gained the most populations are lower tax and right to work states. Blue states are holding on by losing productive citizens and replacing them with more of the free sh*t army. That is why every 10 years they are losing electoral counts.

Puerto Rico is losing people as their massive tax, borrow and spend programs hit the wall along with the Federal Government ending massive subsidizes for firms to move to PR.

Why isn’t DC s a state? Because is was never designed to be a state. It was designed to be a small “district” of Federal Power with land donated from other states. On purpose.

The states of Maryland and Virginia each donated land to form the federal district, which included the preexisting settlements of Georgetown and Alexandria. Named in honor of George Washington, the City of Washington was founded in 1791 to serve as the new national capital.

Congress passed the Organic Act of 1801, which officially organized the District and placed the entire territory under the exclusive control of the federal government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington,_D.C

Comment by tj
2014-04-25 18:19:43

PR also used to be somewhat of a haven for certain businesses under irs section 936. it really hurt their economy to lose that tax break. also the jones act is hurting them.

act 20 and 22 are probably a response to losing the tax breaks.

politicians don’t have a clue how bad they screw things up.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 05:18:49

Hilarious, ain’t it?

Dude cannot find a job for 2 years….after working to keep “the one” in power.

————————

Girl gives jobless dad’s resume to Michelle Obama
NY POST | 4/25/14

…Charlotte’s father, Ben Bell, has been looking for a policy job for more than two years and recently has been trying to get a job with the Obama administration. He worked on the Obama campaign in 2012….

Comment by Dolly Llama
2014-04-25 05:25:30

I hate parents, politicians, social workers, businesses and basically everyone who use children as props.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-04-25 05:53:46

Me too.

 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-04-25 06:13:43

“I hate parents, politicians, social workers, businesses and basically everyone who use children as props.”

It’s best to make use of what works.

The end justifies the means.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:35:28

Lemme guess. You live in Washington, DC!

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Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 06:23:17

“One cut to any bloated and inefficient government program (except the military) will cause kids to starve, grandma to be thrown into the street, pollution in the air/water and harm minorities.”
– Democrat talking point for the last 8 elections.

Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 07:58:56

Keep your hands off Lola’s sensitivity workshops for shifting back into society. I believe it is called Transitioning Trannys.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 08:01:26

Are Tranny worshops facilitiated by harpsichordists trolling as autotechs?

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 05:53:06

When are the Japanese coming back???

The Chinese take Manhattan: replace Russians as top apartment buyers
Reuters | April 25, 2014 | BY MICHELLE CONLIN AND MAGGIE LU YUEYANG

For the first time, the Chinese have become the biggest foreign buyers of apartments in Manhattan, real estate brokers estimate, taking the mantle from the Russians - whose activity has dropped off since the unrest in Ukraine and the imposition of sanctions against Russia by the United States.

Wealthy Chinese are pouring money into real estate in New York and some other major cities around the world, including London and Sydney, as they seek safe havens for their cash and also establish a base for their children to get an education in the West.

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 06:07:37

Wall Street Journal article behind subscriber paywall

Demand for Home Loans Plunges

“Mortgage lending declined to the lowest level in 14 years in the first quarter as homeowners pulled back sharply from refinancing and house hunters showed little appetite for new loans, the latest sign of how rising interest rates have dented the housing recovery.”

Got CRATER?

LOLZ

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 06:15:33

Another WSJ pay wall article

Verizon Loses Cellphone Customers for First Time

“Verizon Communications Inc. early this year lost wireless customers for the first time, as its rivals launched a bitter fight for new subscribers.

The U.S.’s largest wireless carrier said it lost roughly 138,000 net postpaid phone customers in the first quarter, a setback for a company that has steadily added subscribers in recent years.”

Happy to say I am among those who dropped them, on the exact day when my two year contract ended and I switched to a discount provider. Verizon used to give me a discount to $85/month but jacked my rate to $98 last November. So bye bye greedy fools. New provider rate is $47/month, leaving me with even more money left over after “throwing money away on rent” every month that I don’t know where to throw it.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 07:33:06

Who’s greedier? Verizon or your employer?

Not to say I don’t give a big thumbs up on your switching of providers.

Do taxpayers have any say in switching from your firm as a greedy federal contractor to a less greedy federal contractor?

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 08:02:46

“switching from your firm as a greedy federal contractor to a less greedy federal contractor”

Already happened, Bethieboy.

Let me refer you to FAR 15.101-2 Lowest price technically acceptable source selection process.

When the new contract was awarded, many of the senior analyst staff had pay cuts up to 20% and less benefits, and as a result, many of them left. They can’t recruit or retain junior analyst or admin staff.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-04-25 08:26:20

Good. Let’s hope it happens again.

I have zero interest in supporting a highly paid, taxpayer-funded outfit whose staff spends all day commenting on blogs.

Gee, and I thought you said that you wouldn’t be able to comment much here after your big salary increase.

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Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 08:45:54

Ouchie!

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 09:07:08

America isn’t a country, Bethieboy, it’s a game.

And to quote mystic, poet, and drunk Jim Morrison, “I just wanna get my kicks before the whole sh*thouse goes up in flames.”

Regards,

goon.squad.ctr@xxx.mil

 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 09:33:36

And to quote mystic, poet, and drunk Jim Morrison, “I just wanna get my kicks before the whole sh*thouse goes up in flames.”

I have always wondered about who he felt about that quote.

Jim Morrison died fat, drunk, addicted, pathetic and relatively young.

A few less “kicks” and a little more of the golden rule maybe could have saved him.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 09:46:15

An interesting contrast to his father:

George Stephen Morrison (January 7, 1919 – November 17, 2008) was a United States Navy rear admiral and naval aviator. Morrison was commander of the U.S. naval forces in the Gulf of Tonkin during the Gulf of Tonkin Incident of August 1964, which sparked an escalation of American involvement in the Vietnam War. He was the father of the late Jim Morrison, the lead singer of the rock band The Doors

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 09:58:25

Sorry for double link but forgot to say this is from Wikipedia. It is interesting Admiral Morrison was healthy right up to his 80s:

George Stephen Morrison (January 7, 1919 – November 17, 2008) was a United States Navy rear admiral and naval aviator. Morrison was commander of the U.S. naval forces in the Gulf of Tonkin during the Gulf of Tonkin Incident of August 1964, which sparked an escalation of American involvement in the Vietnam War. He was the father of the late Jim Morrison, the lead singer of the rock band The Doors

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 10:22:24

Jim Morrison died fat, drunk, addicted, pathetic and relatively young.

True, but people still remember him. His father? Not so much.

It is interesting how the very artistically talented seem to have a strong tendency to self destruct.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 08:32:20

So where did they go? To work for the bidders who didn’t win the contract?

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Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 09:20:18

A few retired, a few moved to work for other contractors in other departments in the same building, some went to jobs outside of the military industrial complex.

Many of the ones over age 55 are still here, they know they’re unlikely to get hired for anything at their age.

My favorites are the double dippers, and even better than that the triple dippers, who are collecting a military pension, a pension from Lockheed, Raytheon, General Dynamics, et cetera, and a contractor paycheck.

Now that’s what Grover Norquist would call “shrinking the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub” indeed, LOLZ.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 10:18:45

Now that’s what Grover Norquist would call “shrinking the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub” indeed, LOLZ.

You’d need a pretty big tub to drown $500B.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine, CA
2014-04-25 06:54:48

Got Rubles?

Russia’s Central Bank raises rates to 7.5%

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2014/04/25/russia-interest-rates/8141113/

I suppose if you have short term Russian government securities or cash you would be sleeping at night.

Comment by mathguy
2014-04-25 14:28:51

If the interest rate is up, and the price is down, doesn’t that make it “time to buy” ? When the Ukraine situation is resolved, couldn’t we expect a jump in price?

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 07:12:51

Only higher taxes and more regulations and bigger and bigger government can save us

“China passed the biggest changes to its environmental protection laws in 25 years, outlining plans to punish polluters more severely as leaders work to limit contaminated water, air and soil linked to economic growth.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-24/china-enacts-biggest-pollution-curbs-in-25-years.html

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 07:35:04

Sorry I do not believe that it is a good policy to have no taxes or no regulations. However that does not mean that there is not an optimum amount of taxes and regulations. There comes a time when the cost benefit analysis of a regulation argues for no new regulation or a time when the higher tax rate leads to so much less growth that it actually depresses revenue. In some cases even a 0% tax rate will lead to more revenue. Case in point, companies do not repatriate overseas profits due to their wish to avoid paying corporate taxes. We would certainly benefit if that money came back to the U.S. even if no tax was paid on the reparation because any use of that money in the U.S. would generate tax revenue, even if it was just parked in a bank earning interest.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:47:54

We would certainly benefit if that money came back to the U.S. even if no tax was paid on the reparation because any use of that money in the U.S. would generate tax revenue, even if it was just parked in a bank earning interest.

America is awash in capital that does nothing for the common American. Companies and billionaires have more money than they know what to do with.

Romney’s old company Bain said as much in their Nov 2012 report.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:35:55

Keeping the money overseas does not generate any revenue overseas and encourages companies to invest overseas. Even sitting in the bank over here would still help the economy. However, Obama like Mugabe wants to pursue redistributionist policies even when they hurt the economy and even the poor.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:46:43

generate any revenue here only overseas

 
 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 18:30:05

America is awash in capital that does nothing for the common American.

capital does everything for the ‘common man’ but it never gets to him if the government taxes it away and spends it on boondoggles, comrade.

Companies and billionaires have more money than they know what to do with.

wrong again comrade. they reinvest to make more money which creates more jobs (if your heroic government would let them).

Romney’s old company Bain said as much in their Nov 2012 report.

’said as much’? sure comrade, sure..

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 20:08:27

“but it never gets to him if the government taxes it ”

They’ll get their hands on it one way or another. If it’s not taxed, they’ll impose a fee. If they can’t impose a fee, they’ll write a new law a ‘la ObamaCare. The name is most disturbing and ironic. That MoFo doesn’t care about anything except for advancing the state at the expense of everything else. That’s his role. That’s his agenda. That’s his promulgation of law and execution of the office of the presidency. And the next president will do the same just like the last president.

This bad. Very bad.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 21:02:59

i’m reminded of a jefferson quote.. something about a tree…

 
 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 07:36:28

Are you really arguing that a totalitarian communist government that passed a few environmental laws just went from a limited government to a “only bigger government can save us and the republicans want to starve kids” type of government?

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 08:12:51

Only higher taxes and more regulations and bigger government can save us

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-04-25 12:27:25

+1

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Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-04-25 12:50:38

Only higher taxes and more regulations

Taxes on the rich at an 80 year low and we’ve been deregulating huge industries for almost 4 decades.

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Comment by mathguy
2014-04-25 14:30:20

People like to call me “rich” since I make 100k+. I pay 40% + taxes. Sorry liar, taxes are not low. All your excuse mongering does is raise taxes on the middle class. So F–k off.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:41:40

Dodd/ Frank has led to the closing of community banks and an increased concentration of banking. A major component of the housing crisis was a Carter era law requiring the banks to lend in areas with poor credit if they were minority areas. I think bad regulation is the problem not the solution.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 18:34:49

Taxes on the rich at an 80 year low and we’ve been deregulating huge industries for almost 4 decades.

real tax rates are higher, kumrade closer. and you can’t deregulate at one end and not the other. example: keeping the FDIC while eliminating glass-steagall. but then, you’ve never been able to see past your nose.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 19:01:40

Sorry liar, taxes are not low.

That’s an opinion.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 20:38:17

That’s an opinion.

so’s that.

 
Comment by LolaLOL
2014-04-25 23:17:22

What is low MM?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 07:43:20

“We’re seeing encouraging signs of progress in Chinese environmental policies in response to growing concerns around air pollution problems, including major reforms in several provinces to stop the growth of coal consumption,” said Gabe Wisniewski, Greenpeace USA’s climate campaign director.

“It’s good news for just about everyone except U.S. coal mining companies that were counting on the Chinese market to support increased coal exports in the face of declining U.S. demand,” Wisniewski said in an e-mail.

Once again Greenpeace demonstrating economic and technological ignorance. Many Chinese coal plants already have scrubbers on them to reduce sulfur emissions. However, they are not used since it is cheaper to pay the minimal fines than the price of running them. A scrubber will often use 7.5% of the electricity generated to run the scrubber. I am glad that China is going to force utilities to use their scrubbers and it will reduce the true pollution emitted. However, for a number of years, it will increase the amount of coal burned and co2 emitted since more electricity will need to be generated. China is running out of coal, American coal companies will have their demand.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 08:07:27

China passed the biggest changes to its environmental protection laws in 25 years

Also known as:

“Too little, too late”

And

“Closing the barn door after the cow already got out”

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-04-25 12:05:25

On the one hand, you discount the very large body of reliable and extensively vetted evidence for global warming caused by CO2. On the other hand you will grasp at any hare-brained straw to prove that there is no global warming, but the nonexistent warming is being caused by exploding stars or old paintings or whatever.

nope

Try again.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 12:56:44

What “evidence” of co2 warming? It is just theory and models. The models did not predict and cannot explain the “pause”. Sorry, you need to try again.

Increased co2 in the atmosphere has always been the result not the cause of global warming. While there is probably some feedback, it is just a guess how much and the guess that has been made in the models has not been shown to be accurate since ppm of co2 in the atmosphere have soared beyond the models worse estimates but temperatures have not moved.

 
 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 08:55:04

Whoa, what’s with the cat hate all of a sudden? Goog news aggregater is carrying two stories, from locations at more or less opposite ends of the east coast, about cat mutilation and murder. Creepy.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/2014/04/25/reports-officials-discover-dozens-dead-cats-hanging-from-trees-yonkers/F3tUdODfWhwey0NscxA9aN/story.html

http://tbo.com/news/crime/cats-found-cut-in-half-in-lakeland-neighborhood-20140425/?google_editors_picks=true

Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-04-25 11:49:53

I used to work with a bunch of cat-hating fools. Do you have any idea how screwed up these people are? Cat haters are evil and should be weeded out as soon as possible.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 12:57:57

We have agreed on something. Both cats and dogs really like me but cats for some reason like me the most.

 
 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 09:28:36

If we only had government programs to regulate and control the housing market…

——————————

A fading middle-class perk: lower mortgage rates
Associated Press | Apr 25, 2014 12:06 PM EDT | Josh Boak

For three decades, the U.S. middle class enjoyed a rare financial advantage over the wealthy: lower mortgage rates.

Now, even that perk is fading away.

Most ordinary homebuyers are paying the same or higher rates than the fortunate few who can afford much more.

Rates for a conventional 30-year fixed mortgage are averaging 4.48 percent, according to Bankrate. For “jumbo” mortgages - those above $417,000 in much of the country - the average is 4.47 percent.

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 09:41:02

Only higher taxes and more regulations and bigger and bigger government can save us

 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 09:46:33

Diversity story of the day. Feral devil spawn of illegals beats and tortures an 87 year old lady.

http://www.sfgate.com/news/crime/article/Boy-14-arrested-in-brutal-beating-of-woman-87-5429155.php

Look at him. Eyes close together, bootscraper hairdo. Oh, HELL yeah, his first name is “Raymond”, lol. I notice these sows like to give their devil spawn anglicized first names, like that’s gonna magically transform them.

We have a similar situation shaping up in these parts. Retirement homes and communities, surrounded by settlements of illegal immigrants and their vicious spawn. So far it’s just been a series of break-ins, and then you’ll hear the hoo-rah-rah when someone finally gets hurt. Of course, none of these old farts will own up to the fact that they encouraged much of this crap by hiring the breeders to do their landscaping, clean their homes and even provide health care.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 10:10:52

They reliably vote democrat.

Sometimes 4-5 times each… :-)

That is all you need to know.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-04-25 10:28:56

Actually, I shouldn’t say it’s been only break-ins, there was also a brutal mobile gang-rape of two waitresses in the area a few years ago, led by a 15 year old devil spawn very similar to that POS. Taxpayer $$ are supporting a womb turd of one of the older rapists while he gets his three hots and a cot in prison. Every one of the three either illegal or illegal spawn. Sick mo-fos.

I was referring to the elderly population around here, though. So far, to my knowledge, there haven’t been any physical acts against the elderly in these parts. Yet.

 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-04-25 11:43:12

Don’t forget that Republicans LOVE illegal labor. And the senior citizens who don’t need a job reliably vote Republican, sometimes 4-5 times each.

That is all you need to know, tuiti-fruiti. All of it.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:00:35

The only people that are opposing illegal immigrants are Tea Party Republicans. All the Democrats want to give them amnesty and Obama has given under 18 illegals de facto amnesty. That is all you need to know Uncle Fed.

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Comment by tj
2014-04-25 18:38:54

you nailed it Dan. everyone but the teaparty is pushing for amnesty.

 
 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 11:54:15

What does this story have to with diversity?

Also, what exactly is wrong with name Raymond?

 
 
Comment by "Uncle Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-04-25 11:08:05

crater

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 11:53:32

Gov. Christie says Colorado is a terrible place to live:

http://kdvr.com/2014/04/22/chris-christie-on-legalizing-marijuana-go-to-colorado-and-see-if-you-want-to-live-there/

Listen to the man, you don’t want to live here. Jersey is a much better place. Please move there, you’ll be glad you did.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-04-25 11:56:54

I think most of the country will gladly let you have the place all to yourself.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-04-25 12:43:59

Unfortunately, that doesn’t seem to be the case. Our population growth rate is twice the national average.

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 13:23:27

Colorado SUCKS!

Do NOT move here, you’ll be sorry you did!

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 14:04:27

The last thing Gov. Christy needs is the munchies.

 
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 12:16:47

Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations with higher and higher taxes is the solution to all of our problems…

———————–

Americans Will Spend More This Year On Taxes Than Food, Clothing and Housing Combined
Capitol Confidential | 4/23/2014 | Jarrett Skorup

It’s Tax Freedom Day in Michigan.

That’s the day people have to work to in the year to cover tax bills for the state and federal government. Americans will spend $4.5 trillion on federal, state and local taxes, which is 30 percent of total income. The figures are in a yearly study done by the Tax Foundation.

“Tax Freedom Day, which comes on April 21st nationally and April 17th for Michigan, is the day when America (or Michigan) as a whole has earned enough to pay its total tax bill for the year,” said Lyman Stone, an economist who co-wrote the study. “That bill includes all federal, state, and local taxes.”

According to government figures cited in the report, Americans will spend more money this year on taxes than they will on food, clothing, and housing combined.

The study tracks overall taxation back to 1900 and notes in that year, “Americans paid only 5.9 percent of their income in taxes, meaning Tax Freedom Day came on January 22.”

The latest day was in the year 2000 when it fell on May 1 as Americans paid 33 percent of their total income in taxes. Including federal borrowing would move the event back 15 days.

Comment by The Zima Guy
2014-04-25 12:44:43

Wars aren’t cheap after all, huh?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:18:12

If you like your big government you can keep your big government. If you don’t like your big government, I will send a Homeland security swat team to your house and shoot your dog just for fun. B. Obama.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:31:05

P.S. and then eat it. B. Obama.

Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 15:49:55

Love love love your Obama, Dannyboy. He really has your best interests at heart.

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Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 12:36:42

String of nearby abandoned homes concerns Montgomery Village man
gazette.net | 04/23/2014 | Jenn Davis

When Alberto Trigo moved into his wife’s Montgomery Village townhome over a decade ago, the block was full of occupied, well-kept homes. Now, he says, the street is plagued with several abandoned residences that have severely deteriorated.

Trigo said he believes up to four properties on Coltfield Court, which is across the street from Watkins Mill Elementary, have been abandoned by their owners and left in disrepair.

Chipped exterior paint, trash in the yards and other issues have him concerned that his own property value is sinking and that the neighborhood is losing its appeal to prospective buyers.

“I cannot sell my house,” he said. “Whoever is going to come to try to buy the house will see the neighbors. What kind of explanation am I going to give them?”

To have the problems remediated, Trigo contacted the Montgomery Village Foundation offices, where he was told that the county is responsible for housing code and enforcement in the Village, which is unincorporated land, and not the Foundation.

Trigo said he finds it ironic that the foundation requires residents to adhere to strict architectural standards when making changes to the exterior of the homes - such as changing the house’s paint color or landscaping - but that the organization will not take any action when there are more serious violations at hand.

A complaint was filed Sept. 12, 2013 for 19031 Coltfield Court, listing a variety of problems including yard debris and holes in the roof, according to the department’s eProperty Data Mining database.

On the same day, a county inspector came out and noted a dead tree in the yard, a damaged roof, rotting wood on the exterior and outside trim in need of a paint job, among other issues.

For 19019 Coltfield Court, a complaint was made Oct. 17, 2011, alleging that the property had dead rats, trash and debris in both the front and back yards, according to the database. The county database does not include complainant information.

An inspection three days later revealed a build-up of trash in the interior of the home, a damaged fence and holes in the roof, online documents show.

Sometime after the follow-up inspection, the property was discovered to be vacant and in the foreclosure process, McHugh said. Therefore, the county has assumed the responsibility to minimally maintain the property until there is a new owner.

Comment by 2banana
2014-04-25 12:43:29

This takes place in Maryland

 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-26 09:14:51

Renters at apartments somehow never have such concerns. Renting means carefree!

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-04-25 13:44:40

As I said yesterday we need to harden the electric grid:
http://www.space.com/25631-sun-unleashes-major-solar-flare-video.html

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-04-25 15:35:50

Trans-Pacific Partnership Talks Begin For Global Internet Censorship Plan

TPP will create international “internet police” that will have the power to censor content and remove websites

Daniel Taylor
Infowars.com
April 25, 2014

President Obama has begun a week long campaign in Asia to promote the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

The TPP, sold as a “free trade agreement” has been criticized as allowing another wave of outsourcing similar to the 1994 NAFTA agreement. The TPP will also create an international “internet police” that will have the power to censor content and remove whole websites. Mega corporations will gain more power to wage war against competition and censor speech online. To demonstrate the influence these entities have, over 600 corporate advisers have helped create the TPP.

The TPP would require all countries involved to align their laws with the agreements copyright laws. The Electronic Frontier Foundation says of the TPP,

“TPP raises significant concerns about citizens’ freedom of expression, due process, innovation, the future of the Internet’s global infrastructure, and the right of sovereign nations to develop policies and laws that best meet their domestic priorities.”

Food safety will also be impacted by the TPP, as it could allow corporations like Monsanto to force genetically modified crops into TPP countries. In 2010, Obama appointed Islam Siddiqui to be the Chief Agricultural Negotiator for the United States. Siddiqui is the former Vice President for Science and Regulatory Affairs at CropLife America, a Monsanto front group. He is working with the administration on the TPP.

Senator Ron Wyden strongly opposed the TPP in remarks to Congress in 2012. Wyden pointed out that the U.S. Congress is being kept in the dark on details of the agreement. Wyden stated,

“…the majority of Congress is being kept in the dark as to the substance of the TPP negotiations, while representatives of U.S. corporations – like Halliburton, Chevron, PHRMA, Comcast, and the Motion Picture Association of America – are being consulted and made privy to details of the agreement.”

The TPP is being met with opposition from internet freedom groups. The website stopthesecrecy.net started a petition to block the TPP. The petition now has over 2 million signatures.

Dan Taylor’s post first appeared at Old-thinker News.

This article was posted: Friday, April 25, 2014 at 8:28 am

Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 20:55:45

Hey phoney baloney, any quotes from your free range chicken hawk hero Cliven about how blacks had it better as slaves? Or is there a sudden blackout on your revealing news?

Another idiot reveals his true colors. I can see why you moved on to new propaganda.

Comment by tj
2014-04-25 21:10:21

always back to race, eh comrade?

trouble is, Bundy didn’t claim what you said he did. so you’re lying once again mr. closer.

lies, distortions and race baiting. that’s your game.

Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 21:20:17

What did he say, comrade?

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Comment by tj
2014-04-25 21:26:38

no, he didn’t say ‘comrade’ either.

if you don’t know what he said, why are you quoting him comrade?

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 21:34:26

what did he say?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 21:38:17

something different than you claim.

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 21:41:08

Let’s hear the misquote. What did he say?

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 21:43:23

why don’t you go back and find out what he really said? the NYT your only source?

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 21:51:51

Fail.

Hey toejam, why don’t you ask me a series of inane distracting questions? Since you have no answers.

 
Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 22:03:59

We’ll talk about it tomorrow when phoney wakes up. You aren’t worthy of the electrons, toejam.

 
Comment by tj
2014-04-25 22:19:58

poor comrade a little upset?

common igorella, show some initiative an find out what Bundy really said.

you probably won’t find it in any of your commie sources though.

at least you took me off ignore. that’s a start comrade closer.

here’s a hint for ya. he wasn’t making a statement. now toddle off to bed and think on it.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 15:43:39

only bigger and bigger and bigger government and more and more and more regulations and higher and higher and higher taxes can save us. because it’s either sweden or somalia, there is no in between.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-04-25 16:33:28

ANOTHER university stops students from handing out Constitution

Robby Soave
Daily Caller
April 25, 2014

Two students are suing the University of Hawaii for violating their First Amendment rights after administrator prevented them from distributing copies of the U.S. Constitution — demonstrating a frightening lack of knowledge about the very legal document they were attempting to censor.

Students Merritt Burch and Anthony Vizzone, members of the Young Americans for Liberty chapter at UH-Hilo, were prevented from handing out copies of the Constitution at a recruitment event in January. A week later, they were again informed by a censorship-minded administrator that their First Amendment-protected activities were in violation of school policy.

The students were told that they could only distribute literature from within UH-Hilo’s “free speech zone,” a small, muddy, frequently-flooded area on the edge of campus.

Administrators further clarified their level of respect for students’ free speech rights, making comments like, “This isn’t really the ’60s anymore,” and “people can’t really protest like that anymore,” according to the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education.

The First Amendment has not been modified since the 1960s, however, and robustly protects the rights of students at public universities to hold non-disruptive protests, speak their mind and distribute literature.

Full article here

This article was posted: Friday, April 25, 2014 at 5:44 am

Comment by mathguy
2014-04-25 18:07:44

I almost want to quit my job and start being a lawsuit junkie doing things like this. Inform the electorate and suck public funds to bring the whole debacle down, all at the same time!

Comment by Igor
2014-04-25 21:13:46

Why don’t you put your money where your mouth is and do it then? Or is it all just sheeple herding talking points?

 
 
 
Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-25 17:27:36

The media raised the race card on Cliven Bundy.

Therefore states rights is racis.

Thereforefreedom is racis and big government is “coexistence.”

LIEberal logic.

My “progressive” boss finally posted to FB and yes he raised the race card.

Trying to keep my status updates to just from my smaller circle of family plus nonLIEberals.

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-04-25 18:09:12

Aha! Found the “unfollow” feature! Now I won’t see “progressive” updates from my boss!

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 18:55:10

The media raised the race card on Cliven Bundy.

Actually, Bundy rasied it himself.

Therefore states rights is racis.

Is anyone saying this in the media?

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-25 17:46:14

Are you hanging out with the “Choom Gang” and Obama tonight?

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=choom%20gang

Comment by MightyMike
2014-04-25 18:57:28

You better watch out. After he gets out of office, Obama may join the horde of people moving to Denver.

 
 
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