‘Taking A Lot Less Than They Thought’ In Florida
A pair of housing bubble reports from Florida. “The real estate bubble may be showing signs of bursting around the country, but Realtors in Alachua say there’s nothing to fear. ‘The bubble or whatever you read about in the national news was driven by investors,’ said broker Tommy Macintosh. ‘Our market has never really been an investor-driven market.’”
“Last year’s housing market was feverish, said Lorraine Handler. ‘(Houses) were selling almost before you could get the sign up,’ Handler said. Since then, the market has slowed in some respects but several factors are keeping it strong.”
“Tony Boothby said houses are staying on the market longer and listing prices are going down, but for the most part selling prices aren’t. ‘It’s been a seller’s free-for-all the past couple of years,’ Boothby said.”
“Even though local prices have risen dramatically in the past few years, they’re still attractive to buyers from other areas, Handler said. Brenda Forrester recently showed a $279,000 townhouse to a couple from California. They remarked that a similar home would sell for at least $700,000 where they were from. ‘There are still bargains to be had in our area,’ Jim Forrester said.”
“The future of the market looks bright, they said. Realtors don’t expect the flow of buyers to slow any time soon.”
The Herald Tribune. “Homeowners here in Manatee County are selling before they go into foreclosure and are able to because there is still a demand for housing, real estate agents say. (Realtor) Dorothea Sandland helps do just that. She said she frequently sees people in financial difficulty.”
“‘These people don’t have a home but at least they’re not going into foreclosure,’ she said. ‘It’s always better to sell than to go into foreclosure and have something bad behind your name.’”
“Broker Leland Wallace said he has seen an increase in the number of homes listed for sale and clients have dropped prices on investment homes and condos when they have not sold quickly. He said he has not personally seen an increase in the number of foreclosures in Bradenton.”
“‘Whether or not that changes in the next few months, that’s hard to say,’ he said. ‘There are so many investors who bought last year.’”
“Steve Schneider, president of the Florida Association of Mortgage Brokers, said supply and demand will dictate whether properties will move. ‘Properties are sitting a lot longer on the market than they were,’ he said. ‘With all the inventory out there, I think people are going to be taking a lot less for their property than they thought they would.’”
“Speculative buying could get people into trouble, he said. Some people buy homes with the intention of flipping them, he said, and they have trouble making the mortgage payments when insurance rates, interest rates and taxes increase and they cannot sell the house in the time they had anticipated.”
“Kevin Gill, a mortgage broker in Bradenton, is optimistic that the future rate of foreclosures won’t increase. ‘People want to move here. People want to live here. There’s never going to be a housing bubble in Florida or California because the demand here is too great.’”
“There’s never going to be a housing bubble in Florida or California because the demand here is too great”
Haha.
Never is an awfully long time.
Who’s got the quote about you can get a man to believe anything if his livelihood depends on it.
I promise, I will save it.
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends upon his not understanding it.” — Upton Sinclair
This has been impressed upon me recently with all the realtor talk.
This also caught my eye today:
A mystery? Oh really?
EVERYONE seems to think their area is impervious to a slowdown, because of demographics, warm weather, an ocean, or whatever. That seems to be the key to this mania.
Here is the homebuilder picture:
* Homebuilders have negative cash flows
* Homebuilders put the bulk of their profits into buying more land at absurd prices
* Homebuilders are totally ignoring the yield curve
* Homebuilders are discounting the odds of a recession.
…… No one seems to see falling sales, rising inventories, sinking refis, and discounts by the homebuilders.
I was told by a real estate broker friend of mine that Atlanta was impervious to a slowdown and there would be no recession coming our way. I note with interest this ad by Centrex.
……….$60,000 off? Everything is fine in Atlanta?………
An “Interest Rate Squeeze” does not care where you live. Prices matter, as do prevailing rents. Home prices do not always go up. . I suspect Toll Brothers and Meritage Homes will find out in due time just how silly that purchase in Phoenix was. By then, it will be too late. It is the overpayment for land that bankrupts homebuilders every cycle. This cycle will be no different.
Just sold my house to a builder in ATL. A realtor friend of mine was amazed because she said it is DEAD out there.
For what it’s worth.
The fact that we’ve had at least two housing bubbles in CA in the past twenty five years would seem to bely that point…
“Kevin Gill, a mortgage broker in Bradenton, is optimistic that the future rate of foreclosures won’t increase. ‘People want to move here. People want to live here. There’s never going to be a housing bubble in Florida or California because the demand here is too great.’”
LOL Let’s frame that next to the NEW EONOMIC MODEL. Just goes to show you that any uneducated fool can be a realtor, broker, or appraiser in this industry. Let them all choke on their own vomit.
ECONOMIC! I may not be a great speller/typer, but I know what the hell is going on.
Ohhh really,,, “people want to move to FLA”… I rented a trailer in Miami from U-haul a couple weeks ago and they stated they can’t keep the equiptment here since they have so many one way rentals out of FLA…
Is a huge turn around, as I know a couple who moved down her to FL. 2 years ago, and you could not RETURN a moving van in FL due to the huge number of one way moves down here. The couple I know had to drive the moving van to Georgia in order to avoid paying a HUGE amount more on the rental.
Posted already,did not show up but..My comment is that I had some friends move down her to florida about 2 years ago and to rent one way to FL required a substantial premium. The actually moved here and drove the moving truck to Georgia for return. How things change!!
I’M WITH YA WITH YA. I FOUND OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT LOL MEANS LAUGH OUT LOUD FROM WATCHING DATELINE TO CATCH A PREDATOR. I ALWAYS THOUGHT IT MEANT LOTS OF LUCK. I’M REALLY GETTING INTERNET SAVVY NOW. I’M A WILD AND CRAZY GUY,LIKE YOU. STAY OUT OF THOSE CHAT ROOMS.
Here’s another tip for you. When you type in all capital letters (LIKE WHEN YOU HAVE YOUR CAPS LOCK ON), it’s considered shouting. Please leave the caps lock off. Thanks.
My In-laws bought a 2 Bedroom house in Dunnellon, Fl (near Ocala) for $140,000 2 1/2 years ago and sold it six weeks ago for $270,000. I’m just praying that the suckers, I mean buyers from NJ, make it to the closing at the end of this month. The only jobs in that backwater place pay $7.00 hour and there’s a mile long line of retirees waiting to get them. The supply of land is limitless. Finding undeveloped land there is like finding water in the middle of the atlantic ocean. Reality will certainly catch up soon. The realtor said that since he sold their property, things went completely dead.
Agree - the whole “running out of land” thing is a complete joke. Granted, the closer in to a major city, the more it’s developed, but I am scouting for a house in Tampa. I drove with my cousin last month from Tarpon Springs up to Williston (which is between Ocala & Gainesville) to look at a 5 acre lot he inherited from his dad (not to go live there, just to see what he got). The undeveloped fields open up as soon as you hit Pasco County. Levy County is one huge horse farm. You could probably build housing for every boomer retiree in the nation in that one county in Central Florida. Of course, there wouldn’t be much to do except look at horses, cows and pasture as far as the eye can see.
I replied to a Business Week blog about the open land last fall. Even if they are running out of land in Miami, there is plenty elsewhere in the state. Pasco county along Hwy 54 has open fields all over the place. There is absoletely no shortage of land in Central FL and any insinuation of it is just ignorant.
I agree too.
That expression is just as true as saying everything on or in the earth is a limited resource, including air, water, minerals, etc.
So they “sold” it six weeks ago, but… you’re praying the buyers make it to the closing at the end of this month? What’s the holdup? That seems like a long time to shake in your boots, hoping the sale goes through.
Have the buyers gotthe appraisal results back? The mortgage companies almost always “make sure” the appraisal is high enough, but a friend of mine did have a sale fall through when the appraisal came in about 15% below the previously-agreed sale price.
If they get that house sold, tell them to thank their lucky stars and take that money and run! But then, you probably told them that already!
Back when they sold the place, they agreed to do the closing on June 20th for whatever reason.
I’ll be sure to forward them the address of this site once they’ve got the check in hand. No need to get them all nervous about it now
I hope your sale isn’t contingent upon them selling their home in NJ.
Property taxes are going up, inventory up here has doubled over the last years and the Spring selling season never materialized. People from NJ counting on selling and moving to Florida may be in for a tough time.
I know,
I’m renting in NJ too
Shhh! Don’t say that too loud or you might catch the Lingus.
I lived in Tampa for two years in my 20’s. It was the time of my life…boozing, hooking up all the time, etc. After two years of it though, I was done. Take away the beaches, bars, and the partying and there’s absolutely nothing there.
Extreme job competition allows employers to pay less and work more. It used to be affordable but them yankees and Californians had to go crazy and bid the prices up to what they were accustomed to where they came from
Now that I think about it, I could go for another two years of partying.
Hey Lingus, when are you leaving? we’ll carpool down there
You misunderstand. The Lingus has a paranoid hatred of anyone living in NY, NJ, or the Boston area.
what funny stuff has Mr. Gill been smoking. I hope he can tell the dumbshit flopper that is out $350K and rising on some speculation lot in FL (see yesterday’s thread regarding FL). Or tell some of these recent homedebtors that are going to be upside-down all up and down California. “People always want to live there”. Ha, I voted with my feet and left so I can get a home for my family. When I go back, and get stuck in that ever familiar traffic, get hit up by bums asking for money, and dirty streets, I am reminded that I wanted to stay there. HA. The central valley smells like bullshit, and the coast smells like perpetual fish. Real appealing.
Boy, oh boy. Do those comments ever ring a bell. I live in Merced, CA. Probably ground zero for your ‘bullshit’ comment. Good Lord, why do people move into the valley from the Bay Area or the LA basin wanting the simple life, with small towns and a country lifestyle then bitterly complain about the simple life, the small towns and a country lifestyle. Yes, there are smells and sights and attitudes in the valley (and in small coastal towns) that you don’t find on Market Street or in Santa Monica. They belong here. Or would you perfer to pave this valley over into a larger version of the San Fernando Valley, with your food coming from foreign lands, where CalEPA standards are a bit thinner.
Where did you move from and to again?
“Kevin Gill, a mortgage broker in Bradenton, is optimistic that the future rate of foreclosures won’t increase. ‘People want to move here. People want to live here. There’s never going to be a housing bubble in Florida or California because the demand here is too great.’”
Yeah, I can’t wait to move to Florida to take a 50k/yr wage slave job so I can rent an apartment so I can live in a state run by an IDIOT and live among the slobbering masses.
I just can’t wait to get there.
That’s it. Just not worth it anymore. I’m outta here. Somebody drop me a note when I can read about housing again without having to wipe the lingus off my screen. I’ve no time for irrational hatred or extremist politics injected into every topic. Thanks for everything Ben.
Too much available time for you. See you tommorow when you cool off.
Can’t you just ignore? I always scroll through the flame.
Robert, your comments are appreciated. Just keep doing what you do.
Lingus is a known dailykos flamer. Just ignore. Robert, your comments are very much appreciated and I’m sure I speak for many when I say it would be a real loss if an idiot like that ran you off the board. JMHO.
Could be time to institute some anti-troll measures. Lingus can barely keep his comments even on housing.
I don’t see what was political about that particular comment.
He was referring to Jeb Bush.
Hey Robert,
Stop. Untwist panties.
Any board this popular is going to attract its fair share of inflamatory posters. As Mao (no hero of mine) once said, “Let a hundred flowers bloom, let a hundred schools of thought contend.” (Of course, he promptly rounded up and executed adherents to the wrong schools of thought.)
If what Lingus has to say offends you, simply scroll past his comments, instead of going off in a huff. Your contributions in here are valued, and I’d hate to see you leave in response to Lingus’s vitriol.
Sammy
I call bull. I have $100 saying Robbie will return under some alternate username. I don’t believe he has the mental fortitude to leave for good. The fact is, Rob just cannot come to terms with someone he knows is right but doesn’t agree with. Shame on you Robert.
Is it just me, or am I not the only one who pictures Lingus as weighing 300 pounds, not married…. Miserable soul!!!!!
Hmmm…. “Lizziebeth”….. and another desperate attempt by a blogCoward hiding behind a new user name.
No we had it out a week ago when I called you a racist, not bigot. You turned me off to this blog. Now I’m back!
‘Forrester recently showed a $279,000 townhouse to a couple from California. They remarked that a similar home would sell for at least $700,000 where they were from’
Do Californians have a gene that makes them fan out across the US and compare RE prices to their home state?
Many, many people have spread out across this country and ruined smaller local markets in a lot of states. It really is a shame, housing and the sonsumption mindset that came with it has truly been a sickness in our country.
I am really looking forward to getting back to a saving society…
Comment by dukes
2006-06-09 06:10:46
Many, many people have spread out across this country and ruined smaller local markets in a lot of states.
________________________________________________________
But the handwringers and whiners get offended when you mention. But it is a fact….. The ruination of small suburban areas at the ands of urban scuzzballs.
Lingus, I think many on this blog would agree that many small communities have been negatively affected by out-of-staters. However, why must you inject politics and hatred.
boohoo… cry me a river.
The only sad part is that you lose all credibility to some of your posts when you go on the rants.
I have noticed a delay in posting comments.
All of the flamefests that are political are probably costing Ben a bunch of extra time.
I think it’s a terrible situation where national politics are part of the cause and effect (symptom) of the housing bubble yet, because of blind loyalty, no one is willing to acknowledge it. That’s right. Stick your head in the sand….. what a way to go. According to Cote and his ilk, “inflation has nothing to do with housing” and “oil has nothing to do with housing” and “oil isn’t inflationary”. Yes… you can choose to believe that perma-bull garbage even when the evidence weights against it. But then again, I recall Cote as saying “I have more money than I know what to do with”…..
Caveat Emptor
Brenda Forrester recently showed a $279,000 townhouse to a couple from California. They remarked that a similar home would sell for at least $700,000 where they were from. ‘There are still bargains to be had in our area,’ Jim Forrester said.”
——————
There is no way to compare CA and FL housing. In FL the wages do NOT support the housing stock. It’s build on a ponzi scheme of rich retirees and people chained to living in trailers. I make decent money and I can’t afford a house without stretching to the max, which I’m not willing to do.
California wages don’t support prices in many areas, either, and it’s just getting worse.
I make $120k base salary per year and therefore can afford a $300k house, or maybe $360k if I stretch. Unfortunately this prices me out of the market pretty much anywhere in California, even bad areas like Bakersfield or the central valley. California is pretty much ruined for people of moderate incomes such as myself. I’m looking at moving out of state, either to Australia or New Zealand.
New Yorkers do it too. Or at least we find ourselves doing it. “Jeez, that house costs as much as a walk-in closet in our neighborhood.” We have to keep reminding ourselves that just because a house somewhere else (almost anywhere else) seems inexpensive compared to New York, doesn’t mean it’s not overpriced.
Agree - I am New Yorker who is looking in Tampa (to live, not invest) - was jumping in with a builder last year because it seemed cheap & huge - but I have learned (through this blog mostly) what’s coming and will hold out to lowball an investor when I can get 2500 sq. feet for 250K which is what I think is reasonable, rather than 350K, which is where prices are/were at end of ‘05. There are couple of very nice communities in Pasco County that have dozens of homes for sale. I am eyeballing the price drops and desperation for the right time to start making offers. Most drops have been 3-5% - not a real move but some of these homes have been on market 6+ months and I’m sure the desperation will win out.
If you are thinking of moving from NYC to Tampa, I would seriously reconsider. I lived there for 30 years, and during most of that time I wanted to get out - and quickly. I had a business that prevented me from moving.
I would first go there during June-September, and FEEL how humid it is. I would also try to find anything culturally worthwhile (monster truck rally doesn’t count).
If you still want to move there, check out a downtown suburb called “New Surburb Beautiful”. I lived there for 3 years and loved it. It’s in Hyde Park - 4 amazing streets of New England type homes. One of the most expensive non-cookie cutter neighborhoods in the entire city. I think I was the only single person as well.
I bought a home in there for $229,000 in 1997. Sold it for $350,000 in 2000. It says its’ worth $673,000 on Zillow. I wouldn’t buy it back for $229,000 - i hate Florida that much.
Be very careful because I feel strongly that you won’t see strong appreciation in florida for at least 6-10 years from now.
Thanks for the tips.
Well I am a lifelong New Yorker and have always loved the greatest city on earth - but I’m 42 now, have a wife and 2 1/2 year old daughter. I almost never do the nightlife or cultural attractions anymore. I hate my high stress-good pay job. I am lucky enough to have a buyer for my co-op at a nice profit.
I never thought i’d move to Florida as I was always bored when I visited my cousin there - but i’ve been down there quite a bit lately and actually want to try the slower pace. I’ve felt the summer heat, but at least it’s clean. New York’s stinking summer heat is worse.
I’m not looking for home price appreciation, just a nice home for 250K where my daughter can have a backyard to run around in - thsi is impossible in NYC as the homes that were 250K 7-8 years ago are all 900K and up now and Jersey & LI are almost as bad and 10K + per year taxes for an hour commute to the city will not do it for me.
I’ll get a job as I’m a paralegal - the law field is pretty recession proof - when times are good people sue, when times are bad they sue like crazy.
I’ll give it a try, if it sucks, maybe the NYC market will tank in time for me to move back!
I have a lot of family in NYC and will back up here to visit plenty so I can still do the city if I want to.
New Suburb Beautiful is actually to the west of Hyde Park, which is a mile long, with dozens of streets, and outrageously expensive. Everything in South Tampa (south of Kennedy) is hilariously over-priced. Tampa is possibly one of the ugliest, filthiest cities in America, but does have a few pretty neighborhoods.
As for the Californians believing they got a bargain buying a townhouse, was this in Alachuia County? That’s were Gainesville is, and you couldn’t pay ME ten million dollars to move to that hellhole. The reason things cost more in California is because they’re in CALIFORNIA. The real estate bubble speculators apparently never processed the concept that prices reflect desirability, including location, and that NOBODY wants to live in Timbuktu counting used condoms on the ground.
I meant to say, that “prices SHOULD reflect desirability . . .”
Tampa itself is hell, but i’m talking about North of Tampa, Pasco County - boring i’m sure (and yes, sinkholes & sex offenders in older coast towns - I know the problems), but lots of newer gated subdivisions out in the pastures with amenities and bigger newer homes - many loaded with flipper & investor properties that will get beat down in the coming year.
All i need is a good size fenced lot, a newer home with bolted on roof and my computer and i’m good. I will make sure my daughter gets all the culture she wants by taking road trips with her (don’t want her to get that stupid drawl though - will have to work on that!)
Pasco county’s gated communities are worse than Tampa. I hope you like living around blue-collar rednecks. Yes, in gated communities. In FL there are two types of people; rich and poor. There is no middle class and the rich/poor people are dispersed together. Even in gated subdivisions where every other house is owned by old foggies who call the code board if your grass is 1/8″ too high. Some friends of mine moved from Tampa to a gated community of newer homes and hate it. Every other house is for sale, neighbors are old or have a ton of kids, and while the houses are nice, I can’t imagine living in a more boring area. I’d take Hyde Park village any day which is close to jobs, good restaurants, a good neighborhood. In Tampa it’s easy to quickly leave a good area for a bad one so it pays to be vigilant.
Good luck with your decision. I like it here only because I live by the bay, close to work, in a great neighborhood. If I were in the cookie-cutter suburbs I’m sure I’d be miserable.
Many of the developments in Pasco County are constructed of concrete block (first story) and particle board and styrofoam (everything else), all sprayed with stucco to make it look good. They could not withstand a major hurricane, and are all sitting ducks for wood and subterranian termites. Lakes in the area are prone to drying up for months, even years at a time, because the city of St. Petersburg steals its water from the aquifer beneath Pasco County. If there isn’t a lot of rain, the lakes start fading away.
For crappy houses, developers charge outrageous prices, even though most of the county is heavily redneck and depressing. I suppose if you go far enough north and west or east, you’ll be okay. Dade City is rather pretty these days, and there are some beautiful horse farms in the area, though I understand some of the biggest pieces of land have been bought by developers for yet more track houses, which will spoil the view for everyone.
“…don’t want her to get that stupid drawl though - will have to work on that!”
Great. Just great. That’s all we need down here, is more New Yawkers with their tin-can accents and pushy ways. Your post was OK until that point. If you don’t want what comes with the South, go elsewhere.
Be sure to check out the crime rates before you go. Florida has an outrageously high crime rate in nearly every area. I’m not sure why that is. I grew up there and I thought it was relatively safe but I actually feel much safer now living in the city than I would if I moved back there. Just the rape statistics alone are startling. I was comparing Glendale California to some of their metro areas since Glendale is a highly populated central city location and whoooo boy! I’ll take Glendale!
buddhaman said . . .
“…don’t want her to get that stupid drawl though - will have to work on that!”
This is rude thing to say, and I promise you a real Southern drawl can be far nicer than anything you’ll hear up North. If you don’t believe me, check out cultured voices in Atlanta, Savanah, Charleston or New Orleans, then have a go at almost place in the Northeast. I’ll take the drawl, and there’s nothing stupid about it. As my beautiful New Orleans Garden District grandmother said, “Dahling, some people are dreadfully vulgah.”
I shouldn’t extend this thread any longer but I just can’t keep my mouth shout about Florida. I’ve lived here all my life and visited many other areas up the east coast so that is where my perspective comes from.
For anyone who is considering moving to Florida, there should be only one reason why you would want to live here and that is to go to the beach. Any other reason is wrong as to compensate for the wonderful beaches Florida is horrible in every other aspect.
Repeat. If you do not love the beach you should not be moving to Florida. It has no other advantages.
You said it. It’s gross, except for a few pricey beach areas. Can you believe how hot it is already? I’m looking to Colorado for escape.
Whoa - sorry - didn’t mean to offend! I’ve actually heard some beautiful drawls - as well as some not so beautiful - and no doubt plenty of New Yawkers sound horrible - I am fortunate that my mom was an English teacher who taught me to speak properly. I just want my daughter to speak and enunciate properly - to me that means My Fair Lady
On a positive note - one of the things that I really like about Florida is that people are FRIENDLY there - people say hello when you walk by them or meet them - in New York, if you say hello to someone they look at you like you’re crazy or cross the street like you were going to rob them.
If I could tell you that after 42 years of living in the great city (and yes it is still the best, even with what i’m about to say) you get sick and tired of how filthy, bummy, stinky, cold, unfriendly and barren of trees and graffittied and gray and expensive, even to live in a shoebox, and high pressure in your job so you can buy your boss his swimming pool in his nice million dollar house - well you get the idea.
Anyway, maybe it’s just getting to an age where it doesn’t matter if I live in a boring subdivision - I just want my own piece of land, a house built up to the new codes (i’ve watched several built from ground up with my inspector - as long as you get a one story I think they will stand up to almost anything - two story may be another case as second floor is all wood - but the amount of concrete and rebar they drop into the block is overkill - and the pre-engineered roof trusses and strapping on all the beam caps make the newest houses like a little rock that I don’t see budging. When you see hurricane damage, it is almost all older homes - (not that the mobile home on the next parcel couldn’t get lifted up and dumped through your roof though)
Eventually these subdivisions will fill up with real owners and be livable - i get along with everyone - blue-collars, rednecks, intellectuals and everyone in between.
Okay, I’m in the minority here, but I love Florida! I was born and raised in Chicago. Moved to Florida after college. Yes, there are some not so nice areas in Tampa just like everywhere else. However, let me tell you what I love about living here.
1. The beach
2. Planned communities: Roller blading to the park with my kids, riding bikes to dinner, walking to get bagels on a Saturday morning in perfect weather 7 months a year.
3. Tampa Bay Bucs
4. Busch Gardens for $250 a year, you can go whenever you like. Your child will love Dinoland.
5. Disney-Florida resident rates
6. No snow, majority of days sunny, thus the sunshine state. Great for seasonal mood disorder.
7. Summer lightning storms that last half an hour, cools things off and then the sun comes back.
8. Cooling off in my backyard pool.
9. Did I mention 7 months of perfect weather???????????
10. Going to church and then straight to the beach.
11. Road trips: St. Armands Key, Cocoa Beach, Ft. Myers,
12. Sheraton Sand Key resort
I can go on and on. There are plenty of cultural things to do in Tampa as well. Not NYC, but comparable to other cities of the same size. Travel Broadway shows, symphony, ballet……….. Ooh and not quite cultural, but you can’t miss Gasparilla!
I personally am not a fan of south tampa. Stuffy yuppie wannabes. Old moldy houses and yes, a little dirty. You need a planned community for your family. I would stay away from New Tampa/Pasco area because there are so many New Yawkers, but that may not be a problem for you. Newport Richie has some nice communities. I live in a community called Westchase. We are way overpriced right now! I think alot of people have dug themselves in deep debt though and we will see some price reductions. Another lovely community that is still pretty affordable is Fishhawk Ranch. We like Fishhawk because of the schools. Our high school isn’t very good and are looking to move there when prices come down. We sold a year ago and are renting. You should consider renting so as to see if you like it, wait and see what happens with the real estate market, and most of all you can get more house for less money than buying right now. The investors are desperate and renting for less and less as more rental properties come on the market. As far as your accent comment, I won’t go there. Just know that Florida is as far south as you can go, but it isn’t the south. I hear more New Yawk accents these days than southern. The majority is what I would call an average midwestern accent. Tampa is a melting pot. I have to agree with Incredulous, there isn’t anything finer than a pedigree southern accent. Give me the sound of a sweet southern lady or gentlemen talking over the fingernails on the chalkboard Jersey/New Yawk accent!
Also, if you go to a website westchaser.com, they have the tax value page for Hillsborough county. You can pull up the records and see what people paid for their houses. I think it fair for prices to go back to 2002 prices. You will be shocked what people paid before 2000.
Thanks for all that reply - I believe you are correct as I wouldn’t consider Tampa unless I knew about the positives - It’s funny because blogs like this often accentuate the negativity of things, and i appreciate all the “heads up” nature of the comments about the bad things about the area. But again, I am willing to see if all the good things outweigh the bad, just like I have in New York all my life.
And again, I am sorry about the drawl comment - it was a poor choice of words.
>Okay, I’m in the minority here, but I love Florida! I was born and raised in Chicago.
I was born and raised in Tampa and I have met thousands of people who think Tampa and Florida are great. They all seem to be from any town that you can easily access from the I-75 or I-95.
“OH, I just LOVE it here! The weather is so great!”
I agree, shoveling snow pretty much sucks donkey taint, however I can almost guarantee you those people haven’t gotten out much. They haven’t spent much time in California, Oregon or Washington. They probably haven’t been to Europe either.
I’ll take these point by point:
>1. The beach
Over crowding, sand fleas, sand spurs, glass in the sand, red tide, skin cancer, itchy skin, and REALLY fat and ugly people wearing TOO little clothing.
>2. Planned communities: Roller blading to the park with my kids, riding bikes to dinner, walking to get bagels on a Saturday morning in perfect weather 7 months a year.
Planned communities are so interesting. Can I hurl now? Perfect weather? It’s near 100% humidity and 94 degrees at least 8 months out of the year. The other 4 months it’s usually at least 85F.
>3. Tampa Bay Bucs
One of the worst teams in NFL history and yet another stadium built on the backs of taxpayers that didn’t want it.
>4. Busch Gardens for $250 a year, you can go whenever you like. Your child will love Dinoland.
Fantastic. Go to a place that advertises alcohol to your minors. I love the smell of monkey poop when I turn onto 30th from Busch Blvd.
>5. Disney-Florida resident rates
I’m going to hurl again. Can you get more homogenous?
>6. No snow, majority of days sunny, thus the sunshine state. Great for seasonal mood disorder.
Not so good for road rage, violent crime. Fantastic for sex offenders however.
>7. Summer lightning storms that last half an hour, cools things off and then the sun comes back.
A nice and cool 94F with 100% humidity, every day for the entire summer. Enjoy going from a/c box to a/c box and getting baked through your illegally tinted windows.
>8. Cooling off in my backyard pool.
Your whole backyard will be a pool in a few years when the land-based ice melts in Greenland. Florida is an average of 9′ above sea level.
>9. Did I mention 7 months of perfect weather???????????
Only perfect if you are from the Phillipines - or Chicago evidently. How many redneck flags have you counted so far? Or… are you even counting?
>10. Going to church and then straight to the beach.
Sounds like heaven to me.
>11. Road trips: St. Armands Key, Cocoa Beach, Ft. Myers,
Sheraton Sand Key resort
All crap. Snore city. If you like to buy $10,000 watches, look at “sea art” or collect the same old boring seashells, those are all wonderful places to visit in the 94F heat.
>I can go on and on. There are plenty of cultural things to do in Tampa as well.
Name a few? Maybe the Dali museum, but that’s in St. Pete - plus, you wouldn’t want to take your kids there. Probably doesn’t fit your white-wash lifestyle.
>Travel Broadway shows, symphony, ballet………..
zzzzZZZ. About as exciting as your planned community. Anyone with any interesting thoughts or ideas moved out of Tampa a long time ago.
>but you can’t miss Gasparilla!
Not only is it a GREAT place to get stabbed or shot, but also one of the most racist, white-guy fraternities in history.
http://archive.salon.com/news/feature/2001/01/27/florida/print.html
Do I hear Bitter, party of 1? Bitter, party of 1?
If you couldn’t tell, I am so happy to be out of that crapfest.
Good luck with your planned community. I’m going to totally yarf now.
Whoah! I’m so sorry you dispise your hometown so much! Surely you must have some fond memeories of this place. I can’t imagine hating your childhood home. Do you not have anything positive to say about the place? Obviouly you have issues. You may want to seek psychiatric help to you get over your barfing, negativity and anger. Mood enhancing drugs help greatly! I’m so sorry you feel the way you do. I don’t understand unhappy people, but I’m sure there is an underlying reason. Trust me, it’s better on the happy/positive side. Happy people have more fun. Mean people suck!
The key to making that low ball offer TODAY is to find houses listed at $350,000 that are Vacant with an out-of-state owner. Tell the listing agent you want to know what the owner paid for the house and when. If he purchased it 3 years ago for $225,000 and is asking $350,000, with the house vacant and owner out of state, it’s time for that low-ball offer.
David Cee — absolutely. This early in the bust, the only buyers likely to grab a low-ball are those who do not have to bring a check to the closing table.
There is something else that is funny to me though.
I think housing prices outside of California are cheap — but when I look at the cost of almost everything else (food, clothing, etc.) I’m shocked at how much people in other states are paying for things. How can people in low income states afford $4 strawberries and $12 a lb meat? Even the prices at WalMart are outrageous for a lot of things we buy cheaply around here. $5 for shampoo? I can get the same brand here for $1! $350 for a leather coat? I got the same coat here for $30! Anyway, it just kills me how expensive other things are in other places.
We can afford it because we pay $3k or $4k less per month for housing. Shampoo lasts me 6 months and I have long hair. Strawberries are a once a week purchase, at most. I don’t eat beef or chicken, so can’t comment on the meat, though I know a lot of folks who buy directly from local ranchers/farmers and they aren’t paying $12/lb unless it’s for steak.
Anyhow, my family eats well (all organic, fresh fruits, veggies and fish), plus we eat out a couple of times a week and our food bill never adds up to more than $1k per month.
>Do Californians have a gene that makes them fan out across
>the US and compare RE prices to their home state?
Hence the term “equity locusts”…once affordable housing prices are eaten up in one area, swarm to the next.
More or less yea - you should see the dirty looks I get from people when they see the California plates on my car - I just moved here from SD - and no, I’m not an equity locust as I’m not dumb enough to pay these prices for a house when I can rent a nice place and watch this mess unfold.
More or less yea - you should see the dirty looks I get from people when they see the California plates on my car - I just moved to Portland from SD - and no, I’m not an equity locust as I’m not dumb enough to pay these prices for a house when I can rent a nice place and watch this mess unfold.
As a native Californian, I feel I have to comment. Even with decent wages, it was always a struggle for me to be able to buy a house in my lifetime. I bought in 1987 on a variable tied to the 11th District Cost of funds, with PMI and a balloon payment. I did 3 refinances after that, none for cash out.
Many Californians like me have longed for opportunities to buy in other states for a better quality of life. That’s part of the natural process of comparing.
Fanning out, or getting out, seems to be a natural process contemplated by Californians who desire to move up but are trapped by the increasing disparity between income and housing costs. Pretty simple, really.
Apologies for the genetically-deficient California Specuvestors who have Californicated so many great areas.
I doubt that most of them are natives!
there are just a lot of idiots in CA that lucked out, made some money on appreciation, and now are hell bent set on losing it in other markets when they make them tank. I am wishing all of those bubble idiots luck. they just should go to LV or Reno, that might be more exciting and someone will will big.
Reno is toast. They’d have a better chance at the craps table than investing antwhere along the 395 corridor. 5%-10% reductions everywhere you look, inventory through the roof, builders offering 4% bonuses to outside agents to bring in a new sucker, and I could go on. But I think you get the point.
The most annoying fact of this bubble is being subjected to people who confuse luck with skill.
The piper’s coming and he has got a tattoo on his hand that says “Pay up Sucka”.
Are any of the “experts” quoted with an upbeat outlook planning to buy real estate themselves in the next year?
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/norris_oer_1.png
This is a graph comparing imputed rents and home prices. Notice the disconnect that started in 1999. According to imputed rents, houses are twice as high as they should be.
Wow. Noting that the run-up in the late 80’s shows up as a minor blip compared to what has happened since 2000.
Was there a post attached to this chart?
‘The bubble or whatever you read about in the national news was driven by investors,’ said broker Tommy Macintosh. ‘Our market has never really been an investor-driven market.’
I love this guy’s comment. Its really a two-fer’:
1.) There is no housing bubble
2.) Prices won’t collapse in my area because “insert lame reason here”
I’m starting to detect quite a bit more panic in most Realtor’s statements.
Our market has never really been an investor-driven market.
Translation - we have so many investors, that California and New York opened their DMV offices here.
Article by Schiff, SImple theory we have discussed but he makes it alittle more logical…
http://safehaven.com/article-5322.htm
“Brenda Forrester recently showed a $279,000 townhouse to a couple from California. They remarked that a similar home would sell for at least $700,000 where they were from.”
This is where they coined that phrase “Ugly American” from. Americans traveling abroad would buy something and say “At home I’d have to pay lots more” so the vendors started charging more and getting it and at the same time pricing it above what the locals could pay.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ugly_American
It’s a phrase from a fictional book written in 1958 about how the US was losing the struggle with Communism.
“In the novel, a Burmese journalist says “For some reason, the people I meet in my country are not the same as the ones I knew in the United States. A mysterious change seems to come over Americans when they go to a foreign land. They isolate themselves socially. They live pretentiously. They’re loud and ostentatious.” The phrase “ugly Americans” comes to be applied to Americans behaving in this manner.”
So we were a$$holes even back then. Amazing.
I remember a piece in The Onion how US students go only to a US-oriented burger place in Paris and discuss only American culture. I thought it was funny.
But I have to say, there are plenty of Americans who live well-connected and open-minded lives abroad.
If I recall correctly, the actual Ugly American was the retired engineer (and wife), and they were the good guys used as an example of what should have been done in developing countries. A sharp contrast was made between that couple in the backwoods, and the establishment Americans in the capitals.
That said, one of the very few times in my life when I’ve felt like slapping a total stranger was when I heard (I won’t say ‘overheard’, I was 15 metres away in a bust shopping area) a chainsaw American accent saying “so how much is that in reeeaaal money”.
Do Californians have a gene that makes them fan out across the US and compare RE prices to their home state?
Californians have a locust gene in their DNA
They also have a “nice weather” gene.
This is not a ‘California gene’. It is more specifically a Bay Area - LA basin gene. Those same equity locusts have done as much damage to the small towns and rural areas of California as anywhere else in the nation.
Most of the locusts, first infected California from someplace else.
We know that prices can’t go down at the Delaware Shore because we are near the beach. In reality, there is a lot of land a few miles near the beach. I don’t know if we can house every retire in the U.S. here, but we could probably house all the retires from NJ, NY, and MD.
We are all locusts.
Anyone seen “An Inconvenient Truth” yet?
“covering my ears” la la la la la la la……
Budhaman,
I have a difficult time understanding the psyche of people who will purchase property knowing full-well that prices are declining. I live in the Tampa area (Treasure Island - the beach is where it’s at!!). I rent a 2 bedroom condo for $900 a month. It would cost me about $3000 a month to purchase this condo. This is VERY typical. I make a lot of money, and I could afford to buy, but I will not. I save $2,100 a month by renting -yeah, yeah, maybe it’s $1,500 after taxes, but I am still saving money and not taking risk. Prices are indeed coming down; the market is flooded and not much is selling.
So I can understand the desire to “plant” yourself in “your” home, but I have a hard time understanding the lack of patience. Really, would it kill you to rent for a couple/few years and learn the area/neighborhoods so you could decide the best fit for you? The “Tampa” area is HUGE; there are a lot of different areas to choose from. Also, in my opinion prices will just continue to drop so you will have saved money on monthly housing and on the purchase price of a house. I see these benefits for waiting, and the only benefit I see to buying now is fulfilling that “I want it now” voice in your head. That’s my 2 cents…
Respectfully,
Bryan
Where on Treasure Island? $900 a month???
Thank you for backing me up on that. I was just in St. Pete / Treasure Island and we took the boat out, etc. and had a great time. These are the only valid reasons for living here. If you don’t like the water there is no point to being here. The faux culture and jerks that run amuck down here can’t be ignored otherwise.
All the droppings from the rest of the country come down and live in Florida. It’s a lot easier to be a beach bum than a city bum.
Thanks Bryan - May well take that tack - my sister-in-law lives in Tarpon Springs - which is pretty nice - we will look there as well - we will stay at her place until we find something. I will keep an open mind about where to go - agree that near the beach is nicest - but there are mostly older homes and mostly in flood zones and would be worst exposed to Hurricane - not sure what we end up doing because everything is a compromise of some sort. I was in Dunedin and thought it was very pretty there as well - but again older homes. I do appreciate all the advice and things I am learning on this blog - every one has been helpful and I thank ben and all the posters - the internet rules - don’t know how I would have handled this whole move in the old days - would probably have ended up a greater fool.
“Brenda Forrester recently showed a $279,000 townhouse to a couple from California. They remarked that a similar home would sell for at least $700,000 where they were from. ‘There are still bargains to be had in our area,’ Jim Forrester said.”
So…. a fresh apple in Alaska sells for $5.00. Nanuck goes to Florida and gets a bargain because a local sells him an apple for $2.00. At least in the case of the apple, Nanuck may never figure out he got screwed, because he ate it. Whatcha’ gonna re-sell that house for, folks?
In my towhouse community in the eatern Hartford metro (CT) region, my new next door neighbors (retired) owned a home near Ft. Meyers- they where originally from CT- after 7 years in Florida, they had ‘had enough’. Very happy to be back in New England- They became tired of the crime, road rage, high prices for everything, the storms, the heat, and bugs.
Said the Townhouse they bought here for 160K would sell for 325K in southwestern Florida.
These quoted realtor statements used to be annoying, but now they’re becoming funnier by the day, in the ‘Bagdad Bob’ vein. Can’t wait for the next day’s absurd claim!
Betamax — Baghdad Bob — good analogy.
I live (rent) in Alachua county and work in Gainesville.
The realtors here are delusional to say the least. There is an abundance of overpriced real estate here that has never sold since I moved here 15 months ago. I continually receive re-listed listings from a real estate agent i know. I would venture to guess that RE here is routinely overpriced by 30%. I doubt may people are getting their asking price in this dump. And yes, investors are rampant around here.
Turnoutthelights - I left the Bay area and moved to Albuquerque. Much slower, nicer for raising family, children have a backyard to play in, more places to take them for kid fun (park, miniature golf, movies, etc) and a lot less expensive. Kids adapt to anywhere they are when young.
As for my having people go to Reno or Las Vegas, I meant it to be for the gambling. I didn’t mean for them to buy in those area. The Clownifician equity locusts already destroyed them, just as CA.
“Kevin Gill, a mortgage broker in Bradenton, is optimistic that the future rate of foreclosures won’t increase. “Properties are actually appreciating here much faster than in other places,” he said. “People want to move here. People want to live here. There’s never going to be a housing bubble in Florida or California because the demand here is too great.”
WTF is this guy talking about?? I’m in Bradenton and this place is dead. Median is down 15%+ from August yet he is saying appreciation is more than anywhere else?? Inventory is at least ten-fold from last summer. New communities are littered with For-Sale signs, sales are down near 50% yoy, I just don’t understand this fool’s comment. These guys will say anything to keep a paycheck coming in. I hope he loses his Hummer…
buddhaman, keep pursuing your dream to move to Tampa. I would move down to my second house in a minute if I could find a job as good as the one I have in Atlanta. My place is in the Westchase area and it is beautiful, 10 miles to the beach and airport, solid construction in a gated community with miles of biking and nearby access to all the neccessities. Lizziebeth’s comments are on the mark, though I can’t speak about the schools. Prices are coming down from the ridiculous peaks of last August so a shrewd offer could snag a nice property. Good luck and I don’t think you will regret watching the weather in the northeast next January while you are sipping a cold one on your lanai.
lizziebeth thinks that planned communities are super fantastic. So her comments about Tampa must be right on the mark.