Bits Bucket for April 30, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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“Buying a house today will be the worst mistake of your lifetime. Don’t do it.”
You better believe it Mister.
Looks like a lovely place judging by the accompanying photo. Bike paths and everything.
10 years later, vacant land is all that remains of Parramore Village’s rebirth
Nearly 100 people lived in Parramore Village before City Hall forced them to move and razed their homes — the beginning, they were told, of the neighborhood’s rebirth.
Orlando taxpayers spent $1.3 million to relocate the residents, some of whom had lived there 35 years, and to bulldoze their former homes.
More than 10 years later, the property remains a vacant lot, surrounded by a chain-link fence that’s falling down, and hopeful-but-outdated signs still promising new homes that aren’t coming.
http://articles.orlandosentinel.com/2014-04-27/business/os-failed-parramore-development-20140427_1_parramore-village-city-hall-city-council
Parramore. Great place to get shot. This is a neighborhood, based on my skin tone, would be dangerous even when the sun’s up.
The promise, the growing pains of oil boom town
WATFORD CITY, N.D. (AP) — When Brent Sanford graduated high school nearly 25 years ago, his tiny prairie town seemed to be withering away. Storefronts were shuttered, senior classes shrinking, families packing up and moving out. He joined the exodus.
But he kept looking for a way to return. He followed his town’s struggles from afar, getting updates from his father and subscribing to the local weekly newspaper. He’d read about plans to lure businesses to Watford City, but the results were discouraging. “It was sad to see,” Sanford says. “They were trying to get things to happen … but you couldn’t force people to live here. There had to be a draw. There had to be a reason.”
Watford City now has a reason: Billions of dollars of oil in the shale beneath the ground.
http://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/The-promise-the-growing-pains-of-oil-boom-town-5435627.php
Here’s something for you hard-working proles to think about:
If a grocery store or a hardware store or any other business in Mayberry RFD gets robbed then the guy who is put in charge of catching the crooks is none other than Barney Fife.
But if a bank in Mayberry gets robbed it’s not Barney Fife who gets called into action, it’s Lou Erskin of the FBI.
And something similar happens when there is some sort of credit card fraud: When there is credit card fraud Barney Fife is not called, instead it is the Secret Service that is called.
This is what we bankers define as equal protection under the law.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
“All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others” — George Orwell
Lola was always partial to Floyd the barber.
Then got the schooling of her life at thehousingbubbleblog.com.
She comes in like Ernest T Bass, throwing rocks, every now and then.
I always thought of Liberace as the Barney Fife of housing.
Then we have Otis, drunkenly yelling out demands for Cheetos from his cell.
And come to think of it….. fetch me a bag while you’re at it.
You can get your own bag after you sleep it off, Otis.
Save your incessant chattering for later Aunt Beatrice and fetch my Cheetos.
You need to watch the attitude there. This town puts up with you because you’re a harmless old drunk. You’ll wear out everyone’s patience quickly if you turn into a belligerent alcoholic.
And don’t forget the sandwich… PRONTO!
That’s it. You’ve crossed the line. We’re going to have lock up the cell and leave you alone all night. Try to get some rest. Starting tomorrow we need to find you some sort of program.
The only thing you’re gonna do is get in the kitchen and fix me a sammich. Double time Beatrice!
Put pickles on mine and a nice slice of homemad pie after.
Wow, you are the self-proclaimed winner of an argument on the internet! You must be so proud.
Does that come with a ribbon? Are you gonna add it to your resume???
You are entertaining if nothing else.
Awwwww…… Youre so cute when you’re angry.
Robbing a hardware store is not a Federal crime.
I thought you were always bitchn about the Federal Gubermint overstepping its bounds?
Much like a seventies ranch the list could use some updating. I’ll start:
“After a dismal winter, more buyers got an opportunity to look at homes last month and are beginning to make contract offers,” said NAR’s chief economist, Lawrence Yun.
“Sales activity is expected to steadily pick up as more inventory reaches the market, and from ongoing job creation in the economy.”
http://njrereport.com/index.php/2008/04/09/tracking-realtor-spin/
Does L. Yun address the glut of empty houses or a future glut of empty houses in the years to come if people.do.not.have.the.income.for.a.mortgage? Here, income will not grow at the same candy-crappin’ unicorn rate that the REIC implies house prices will. Simple word problem there. You buy a house in 2014 thinking there will be a greater fool 7 years from now. Meanwhile, either interest rates have gone up that it retards growth in house prices or reverses them a lot and/or incomes are stagnant and/or you do not get an income pay increase and property taxes and maintenance costs go up and you.are.trapped. Does Lawrence Yun ever talk about that?
How did you come to believe in the magic money tree?
Because of the fine words of that great American economist, David Lereah?
Remember this Time cover “Home $weet Home” from June 2005?
http://content.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,20050613,00.html
I remember similar cover for maybe Business Week in the 1999 era that had a caricature of a guy going bonkers because “All his friends were getting rich” from stocks and he missed out. Wish I could track that issue down
“If all economists were laid end to end, they would not reach a conclusion.”
George Bernard Shaw
Rents across the country have been dead flat since 2008, but have shot up over the past year in the NE.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-04-29/new-normal-american-dream-homeownership-rate-plunges-19-year-low-asking-rents-soar-r
Per capita income is dropping off a cliff while Wall Street and DC siphon off the wealth of the nation.
According to the graph, rents in the Midwest shot up too.
“At least one entity is enjoying this wealth extraction from the middle class which no longer being able to afford buying a home is forced to hand over an ever greater portion of its paycheck to America’s largest landlord - Wall Street’s very own Blackstone.”
The graph is for vacant units, but wait until 1-2 years from now, as Blackstone starts extorting higher rents from existing renters. Blackstone didn’t buy those units to break even, or even to make a small profit. They want more profit every year.
Median asking rents are up because of all the shiny, new, gigantic house for rent. They are freaking everywhere.
Oxy believes that the elites who own those shiny new boxes will not only get whatever they “need” for the place, they will get whatever they want. They can and will squeeze the helpless turnips because, well, they own stuff and turnips do not.
Never fear, in today’s world you can go from helpless turnip to elite simply by borrowing money from the already elite! Buy yourself that box never be a turnip again. Problem solved.
“I regretted buying my house within a month of buying it. But finally gathered enough $ to pay someone to buy it from me, in essence, six years later. I was 31.
The worst thing I ever did in my life was buy that house in 1990. Bill In CA, April 29, 2014
And you’ll regret it too.
And I just realized I no longer feel an incentive to stay with my current job. The “vested” contribution is not valid since a different company bought us and we have no matching 401k. We were told the compensation is very good. So it has to be enough to not make us want to leave.
In essence, I like either being immediately vested or no matching contribution at all instead of being vested after 4 years. It makes me feel like a consultant again, but with benefits of paid vacation and paid for health insurance.
I don’t think there are much differences between contractors and FTE these days. Take the money and run…loyalty will not pay you anything.
I recently discovered that the blue-collar workers at my current client company are regularly laid off. Then they are called back in 3,6,12 months, whenever there is more work. They are not left idle for one day. Many of them have been with the company for years, but have never qualified for benefits because none of their stints have lasted that long.
#firstworldproblems
I regret that I have but one house to give for my country.
I guess you are not a patriotic American.
It’s every American’s duty to buy at least 2 houses that they can’t afford.
With money they do not have.
It’s their right…. like social security. Never mind these people don’t have two dimes to rub together.
How many qualified retirement accounts?
A red-hot market for home-sellers in Collin County
“I listed it on Monday around 11 o’clock. Wednesday morning we had five qualified solid offers,” he said. It took all of three days, and he had had planned for 30. All the offers were above the asking price.
http://www.wfaa.com/news/consumer/A-red-hot-market-for-home-sellers-in-Collin-County-257273501.html
Crater!
Well some places are a little behind the curve. No realtors are gonna call PHX a sellers market now, unlike that little BFE burb north of Dallas where Bubba there lives.
That bfe burb is home to several fortune 500 companies so it isn’t quite the sticks.
Who is Bubba?
“Who is Bubba?”
From Wiki …
“Because of its association with the southern part of the United States, bubba is also often used outside the South as a pejorative to mean a person of low economic status and limited education. Bubba may also be taken to mean one who is a “good ol’ boy.”
The dude in the picture/video. What’s the wages? I think JC Penny’s HQ is there, they are doing great.
Quoting realtors? The same syndicate that inflated sales volume every month for 4 years straight?
“NAR Overstates House Sales”
http://seekingalpha.com/article/254181-nar-overstates-house-sales-case-shiller-shows-price-erosion
Never trust realtors.
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery
Washington Post - U.S. economy stalls dramatically in first quarter
“The U.S. economy stalled during the first three months of the year, according to government data released Wednesday morning, failing to meet even modest expectations for growth that could renew concerns over the sustainability of the recovery.
The nation’s gross domestic product expanded at a meager 0.1 percent annual rate in the first quarter — well below forecasts for 1.2 percent growth.”
Why isn’t the stock market crashing on this news. And from WaPo of all sources. Fundamentals don’t matter any more.
An all time high on a day when the GDP shows the economy crashing? Anticipating more Uncle Sugar?
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
Denver Post - Colorado counties closing jails to federal immigration prisoners
“Sheriffs in Colorado are beginning to respond to recent court rulings in other states and refusing to hold prisoners in their jails for federal immigration authorities solely on the basis of immigration status.
The move to refuse federal immigration holds began spreading quickly around the state this week.
The changes come in the wake of rulings in other states where judges are telling sheriffs and jail administrators that they don’t have the authority — and aren’t mandated — to keep prisoners behind bars on suspected immigration violations. The sheriffs can be held liable if they do detain prisoners on immigration detainers without warrants.”
Two articles linked from Drudge
The Hill dot com - Boehner: No ’secret conspiracy’ to jam through immigration overhaul
Because it’s no secret that Congress and Obama want to turn this country into a third world sh*thole
Roll Call dot com - Evangelicals Target House Republicans on Immigration Overhaul
Praise Jeebus and show some Christian love for MS-13
Umm… isn’t the proper remedy to budget Federal funds to pay for imprisonment of persons who violate Federal laws?
Where’s that bill in this House?
What’s funny is the same statists who think they can force the registration of 100+ million guns in this country say it would be impossible to identify and deport 12+ million criminal illegal aliens.
And with family reunification “chain migration” laws, the Shamnesty will bring another 50+ million in. And they will all vote Democrat for life.
EXCELLENT
And with family reunification “chain migration” laws, the Shamnesty will bring another 50+ million in. And they will all vote Democrat for life.
You’d better learn to speak Spanish, gringo!
“You’d better learn to speak Spanish, gringo!”
People keep saying this, but my question is, what for? It’s not like I’m going to be doing any business with them. They won’t be hiring me, I won’t be hiring any of them.
Because it will become the official language. Government will conduct its business in Spanish as will most businesses.
Serious question…. what are the real chances of family reunion and chain migration?
If you lived in Central America and had a chance to migrate to the U.S. and leave a life of poverty and violence why would you not leave? Of course, they will bring poverty and violence to this country but they will still live far better. There are numerous polls out there which show that the majority of people in many countries would immigrate to the U.S. if they had a chance.
In Mexico it is not the majority but a substantial minority who would move here:
http://www.pewglobal.org/2009/09/23/most-mexicans-see-better-life-in-us-one-in-three-would-migrate/
People are willing to walk for more than a week through the hot Arizona desert in August to get here. Not sure if they deserve deportation or a medal.
Broken window economics is the only thing even making GDP look as good as it does.
April 30, 2014, 8:52 a.m. EDT
U.S. GDP posts smallest gain in three years
Scant 0.1% gain a residue of bad weather, spring may revive growth
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Growth in the U.S. economy almost came to a halt in the first quarter, a bout of weakness spurred by one of the worst winters in years.
Gross domestic product rose at an annual rate of just 0.1% from January through the end of March, the weakest performance in three years, according to a preliminary estimate by the Commerce Department. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had forecast growth to slow to a seasonally adjusted 1% from a 2.6% clip in the final three months of 2013.
Wall Street expected a poor number, but the weakness appeared even more widespread than had been forecast. Investment in business equipment and residential home construction both declined, U.S. exports fell sharply, government spending dropped again and companies increased inventories at a much slower rate.
Despite the poor growth at the start of 2014, a batch of early indicators suggest the U.S. economy is accelerating in the second quarter. One reason: Some of the hiring, consumer spending and business investment put off in the first quarter because of bad weather may now occur in the spring.
The best news in the first-quarter report was a 3% gain in consumer spending — the main driver of the U.S. economy — following a robust 3.3% advance in the fourth quarter. Yet the increase was largely driven by big spikes in utilities such as heating because of the cold weather as well as higher outlays on health care related to the enactment of the law commonly known as Obamacare.
As a result, spending on services jumped 4.4%, the biggest increase in almost 14 years. Spending on goods rose a much slimmer 0.4%, the weakest gain in almost three years.
Business investment on equipment, meanwhile, fell 5.5% to mark the biggest drop in almost five years.
Investment in home construction also fell for the second quarter in a row, down an annualized 5.7%.
The estimated increase in inventories was $87.4 billion, smaller than the record $100 billion-plus spikes in the third and fourth quarters of 2013. A slower inventory buildup subtracts from GDP.
A higher trade deficit was also another drag on growth. Exports fell 7.6%, a much steeper drop than the 1.4% decline in imports.
…
I just posted the same thing. So Whac, help me understand, since people do not share my view of this issue. China is growing at 7%+ (some manipulation) and the U.S. at .1% (some manipulation), but China is the one that is close to collapse due to a housing bubble? Now, I do not doubt China has a housing bubble, as we do, and I do not doubt in numbers of units it is larger since they have four times the population but in China people often times put down 50% on their houses. So houses in China can fall 40% in value and the banks still have collateral that exceeds the loan. Given China’s GDP growth which is resulting in rising wages exceeding the GDP growth and the collateral situation why is China closer to a housing price crash which causes bank collapses than the United States?
Maybe because they supposedly have created a bigger credit pyramid than the US and in just a few short years rather than over several decades? Maybe because a pig farmer can buy a copper bar and then use it for collateral on a hundred different loans to buy a 10 million dollar condo in an empty city? Maybe because a slight drop in the price of iron ore sends steel mills into bankruptcy because the used their stock of ore as collateral to build whole new steel mills that produce product that cannot be sold? Maybe because their culture is one of lies and deceit, so made up GNP numbers based on useless infrastructure projects and piles of borrowing are meaningless?
“Maybe because a pig farmer can buy a copper bar and then use it for collateral on a hundred different loans to buy a 10 million dollar condo in an empty city? Maybe because a slight drop in the price of iron ore sends steel mills into bankruptcy because the used their stock of ore as collateral to build whole new steel mills that produce product that cannot be sold?”
+1. That’s a pretty good summation.
Copper bar as repeated collateral? Whoh.
I just bought a rain chain for my garden. 90% of this company’s offerings are copper (I bought painted aluminum). In the comment section of the order form I asked them to offer more non-copper products. No way am I hanging a string of copper on the outside of my house. That’s just asking for a yoink. In one nearby neighborhood the owners re-roofed their porch in copper.
Exactly. Factor out all of the make work in China and how much is their economy really growing?. If all their customers are broke, how can they be growing 7%?
“I just bought a rain chain for my garden”
#firstworldproblems
Oh poor goonie… chairlift put dents in your butt?
#firstworld problems
(jk… good catch.
)
I have supplied data that their total debt is much lower than the U.S. and yes if they are growing much slower than 7% it would be a much bigger problem. However, while China’s data seems to be getting more reliable, the U.S.’s data seems to be getting less reliable. I base this on news stories that I am getting out of other countries which seems to match up with what the Chinese are claiming.
Bloomberg)
Updated: 2014-04-28 10:10
Counter:34
China’s Hebei province said economic expansion slumped to 4.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, as steel output fell and factories closed amid government efforts to clean up the environment.
The increase in gross domestic product compares with national growth of 7.4 percent and the province’s previously reported 9.1 percent pace a year earlier. Hebei’s industrial output rose 3.5 percent in the first three months, down from 12 percent a year earlier, as the province pursued “structural changes to its growth model,” according to a statement on the government’s website dated April 23.
The slowdown in Hebei’s expansion underscores the impact of the government’s campaign to reduce industrial overcapacity and contamination of the environment in the world’s second-biggest economy. Premier Li Keqiang said last month he will “declare war” on pollution and pledged to reduce emissions, impose a ceiling on energy consumption and boost clean-water supplies.
Hebei’s first-quarter growth was the second lowest of 29 provincial-level regions that have so far released data, according to a table on official Xinhua News Agency’s website yesterday. Northeastern Heilongjiang reported the weakest expansion of 4.1 percent, it said. That’s down from 9 percent in the first three months of 2013, according to previously released data from the province.
Five regions reported GDP growth of more than 10 percent, according to the table, with the strongest expansion in the southwestern municipality of Chongqing, at 10.9 percent.
Hebei, which surrounds the Chinese capital Beijing, is the country’s biggest steelmaking region and accounted for about a quarter of national output last year. Seven of the 10 Chinese cities with the worst air pollution in the third quarter of last year were located in the province, according to government data.
Dangerous Smog
As one of China’s industrial heartlands and home to heavy industries such as steel manufacturing, petrochemicals and coal, Hebei has been the focus of the government’s campaign to rein in overcapacity and lower pollution. Dangerous levels of smog that have engulfed Beijing over the past two years have been partly blamed on emissions from the province’s factories.
In July last year, the government ordered more than 1,400 companies in 19 industries nationwide to reduce capacity, targeting steel, ferro-alloys, aluminum and copper smelting. Hebei pledged to cut 60 million tons of steel capacity by 2017.
China’s first-quarter GDP increased at the weakest pace in six quarters, government data released April 16 showed, as industrial output growth slid to 8.7 percent.
In a statement released yesterday, the Communist Party’s Politburo said expansion in the first three months was “within a proper range,” although it noted that the economy faces difficulties, and downward pressure on growth still exists.
‘Timely Adjustments’
While the government will maintain continuity and stability of its macroeconomic policies, measures at the “micro-level” should be flexible, and “timely adjustments should be made in accordance with changing conditions of the economy to realize economic and social development goals for the year,” according to the statement released by Xinhua.
Premier Li has so far refrained from implementing broad stimulus to support growth, instead issuing targeted measures such as faster spending on railways and public housing, and reserve-ratio cuts for rural banks. The government won’t adopt “short-term and strong stimulus policies in response to temporary fluctuations in the economy,” he said in a speech at the Boao Forum for Asia earlier this month.
Five regions reported GDP growth of more than 10 percent, according to the table, with the strongest expansion in the southwestern municipality of Chongqing, at 10.9 percent.
This I think is very important because the city of Chongqing is often mentioned as one of the ghost housing areas. However, China is both a planned economy and a crony capitalist country. In North Dakota the drilling came first and then the private sector reacted to the influx of oil workers. I do not think a planned economy is the best way to run a country but I think all systems come with at least some pluses and minuses, even in systems where the minuses far outweigh the pluses. Is it really so hard to think that the local governments and their cronies did not know that the central government was going to shift production to their towns and moved to profit from it by building houses prior to the demand being there? Now, those areas are seeing 10% plus growth while other areas are experiencing a loss of jobs which will free workers to move there and use the housing?
Yet the increase was largely driven by big spikes in utilities such as heating because of the cold weather as well as higher outlays on health care related to the enactment of the law commonly known as Obamacare.
These expenditures actually keep people from spending on vehicles etc. so do not build momentum in the economy.
However, they do serve handily to provide broken window dressing on the GDP figure.
And how managed was that number anyway to arrive at the smallest possible positive increase, rather than a negative number? If next quarter is negative it still won’t technically be a “new” recession right.
Mr. Banker are you tanking things a little to get some more crack from Uncle Sugar?
ObamaCare: Adding stress to the pocketbooks (and, therefore, to the minds and bodies) of tens of millions nationwide.
Ignore it all you want. The MSN certainly does.
Why the housing sector won’t save the broader economy
April 24, 2014, 11:37 AM ET
The housing sector may or may not get better after a slow start to 2014.
But regardless, it certainly won’t save the broader economy — at least not according to two professors who run a popular economics blog.
On House of Debt, Princeton’s Atif Mian and University of Chicago Booth School of Business’s Amir Sufi say, bluntly, “housing won’t save the U.S. economy.”
They point out that house-price growth during the last two years was actually a bit better than between 2004 and 2006. But cash-out refinancing volume is way down, as is the building of new units.
Their commentary follows new-home sales data that was released Wednesday.
“Dreadful new home sales data yesterday heightened concerns that house-price growth will stall, but we are making a different point: the sensitivity of economic activity to rising house prices is much lower today than it was prior to the Great Recession,” they say. “This is due to a number of factors, such as the rise in investor purchases and the fact that the households who would be most likely to spend out of housing wealth are no longer homeowners.”
…
“Why the housing sector won’t save the broader economy”
What a way to telegraph the fact that housing is burying the economy.
To quote the movie Almost Famous: “It’s all happening.”
the households who would be most likely to spend out of housing wealth are no longer homeowners.”
That trillion in HELOC cash is one of the most alarming numbers from the housing bubble.
Comment by goon squad
2014-04-26 03:54:06
Does it feel like 2007-2008 all over again yet?
Creepy. Twin Peaks creepy.
It is Happening Again
I saw an NYT chart from 2012 about top family incomes. It said $400,000 is the top 1 percent. It also said $188,000 was top 5 percent.
So in places like San Diego or San Francisco or Most areas of LA only the top 5 percent can afford a home under the traditional 3 times income metric.
But sure, this is all sustainable.
“It also said $188,000 was top 5 percent.”
This is the dual income family with college degrees and 10-yrs of increasing experience and responsibilities. Difficult to imagine that they’re among the top 5%.
The “family” you describe is probably earning closer to $100k.
Most of my married coworkers and their spouses are in the high 100’s range. Those Highlands Ranch and Broomfield houses aren’t cheap!
Unmarried friend is a personal trainer in Denver, he is looking to buy in the 80210 in the $300K range.
A quick perusal of salary dot com states the median income for personal trainers is $54,214, 90th percentile income is $77,870.
He really believes the “buy now or get priced out forever” koolaid…
“Most of my married coworkers and their spouses are in the high 100’s range.”
My professional friends and spouse each haul in $80k/yr to $120k/yr. One of these incomes in metro ‘Merica is barely getting by if a family is being supported, IMHO. That second income means new cars, vacations, real sports, etc.
Cuz all these cities with crazy house prices over 500k for decent areas are populated by nothing but those dual income professionals with significant experience.
Dual incomes households have ruined this country.
Debt donkeys have made the yard a muddy mess. Most dual income families would have a higher standard of living in the long run with one income if they didn’t go into debt.
As would the 80 million+ singles out there.
“Most dual income families would have a higher standard of living in the long run with one income if they didn’t go into debt.”
Shhhhhhhhhh.
“Dual incomes households have ruined this country.”
It certainly has added to the burden of raising a family in a traditional setting. It meant a move to flyover country for our family, and it still isn’t “made in the shade.”
I’ve heard that roughly 40% of the working-age population out here is on disability or welfare; 70% of the public schools kids come from poverty ranked households. No college or trade craft union means a hard scrabble existence these days.
(Reuters) - The U.S. economy barely grew in the first quarter as exports tumbled and businesses accumulated stocks at the slowest pace in nearly a year, but activity already appears to be bouncing back.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the slowest since the fourth quarter of 2012, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.
That was a sharp pullback from the fourth quarter’s 2.6 percent pace and was worse than economists’ expectations for a slowdown to a 1.2 percent rate. The slowdown partly reflected an unusually cold and disruptive winter, marked by declines in sectors ranging from business spending to home building.
The Commerce Department’s first snapshot of first-quarter growth was released just hours before the Federal Reserve wraps up a two-day policy meeting.
While harsh weather partially explains the weakness in growth, the magnitude of the slowdown could complicate the U.S. central bank’s message as it sets to announce a further reduction in the amount of money it is pumping into the economy through monthly bond purchases.
Another Drudge link
Financial Times - China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year
“The US is on the brink of losing its status as the world’s largest economy, and is likely to slip behind China this year, sooner than widely anticipated, according to the world’s leading statistical agencies.”
This is the “fundamental transformation” of America that Obama promised
We are going “forward” in the wrong direction.
I will reiterate my correct prediction that within a few decades, less than 15% of Americans will live at a level that is considered middle class or above.
The future belongs to Lucky Ducky
“my correct prediction…”
That seems a silly oxymoron.
But he’s probably right. By that time most good paying jobs will have been offshored. It will be normal for young pups to live in mom-n-dad’s basement, waiting for them to keel over and inherit the house, whatever is left of it.
“Financial Times - China poised to pass US as world’s leading economic power this year”
Is it 1989 again yet?
Rental Watch, Jingle Male, and Carl Morris are litter mates who all try to peddle the same logical fallacy on this board. They start with the assumption that the housing market is a stable process, and then they draw incorrect conclusions through analyses based on that assumption.
The data strongly suggest that the process is out of control. The process, it appears, has changed. The area supervisor went on vacay, and left the lady with the purple hair in charge. Protocol has been breached. We should not expect stable output from an unstable process!
E tu, Carl?
What about ibbots and Queenie?
I think that you have Carl confused with someone else. He says that he lives in a mobile home.
Lola lives in a van, DOWN BY THE RIVER.
On the Potomac. lol LIEberal lola lol.
Huh?
To what “process” are you referring?
- the foreclosure process?
- land entitlement process?
How has that “process” changed? And how are we ignoring those changes in our analysis?
Or you are just making a broad, general statement, with no specifics?
There’s nothing general about calling you out R._Fraud.
As a rule, the purple hair attends only general statement par-tays, and even then only rarely.
The economic process.
The economic process?
You mean, supply and demand setting prices?
And how different levers from the Fed pushes capital around markets, which impacts demand, and ability for people to pay higher prices?
And how if distressed inventory isn’t dumped on the market all at once, then the impact of the distress will be limited when it comes to adding supply to the equation?
Yes, I understand that. Are there other ways you feel the “economic process” is out of whack?
I can name a few with respect to the market that I almost exclusively talk about (California):
–Government intervention in California impacts the ability for builders to react to higher prices by adding more supply.
–With a home ownership rate in the low 50’s, and for-sale housing construction running at about 40k homes (with 300k+ new jobs each year), only a teeny-tiny percentage of renters need to be the buyers of the marginal new for-sale homes at current prices in order to support market pricing.
–Prop 13 dramatically softens the impact of higher prices on the cost of ownership for people who already own their home.
So, you have a supply restrictive political regime, and resident owners who like the net result, since they are NOT negatively impacted from higher assessed values brought on by lack of development.
All this sets up the CA market for continual boom/bust cycles.
Contractors don’t need to add additional supply in CA or they’d be doing it. There is no shortage of housing with 4.4 million excess empty houses in that state.
HA, then why are so many homes under construction in the Sacramento market? They are selling new homes as quickly as they build them here.
Any fool can build on spec J. Fraud.
So what is it then? Your alter ego says there is no construction. You can’t keep your themes straight.
Rental Watch, Jingle Male, and Carl Morris are litter mates
How did I get sucked into this?
Clearly, since you work in China, you must be a communist. Capitalist pigs and Communist dictators are just opposite sides of the same coin…..or so seems the logic on this board lately. Not many people making sense here.
They can’t even figure a cash on cash ROI.
You’re whining about others here J._Fraud?
Coming from you thats rich.
The United States is a DumbAss Factory.
http://assets-s3.usmagazine.com/uploads/assets/articles/72078-kim-kardashian-booty-bikini-photoshoot-pictures/1396962577_kim-kardashian-zoom.jpg
Prepare for a scolding by Mz. Craterton.
She is a homophobe. Downlow Joe knows we accept him for who he is.
And since this is an all ages blog, a MSM piece about Cleveland Leather Annual Weekend:
http://www.cleveland.com/bars/index.ssf/2014/04/hellbent_for_leather_or_punkin.html
I always thought Liberace appreciated other genres of music. It’s not just symphonies, harpsichords and flutes. Good for him!
Is that photoshopped? It’s gross. I hope her butt is not really that big in real life.
… that’s running at full production.
Lake Mille Lacs Residents Dealing With Walls Of Ice -
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/04/29/lake-mille-lacs-residents-dealing-with-walls-of-ice/
Dead Whale Washes Up Onto Shore. Possibly killed by too much ice.
http://minnesota.cbslocal.com/2014/04/29/lake-mille-lacs-residents-dealing-with-walls-of-ice/
You know folks, these weather guys can’t even explain why this winter was so cold. Why would you believe they can predict what’s going to happen in the future???
The latest real estate news from Tucson:
AZ, Tucson Have High Percentage of Vacant Homes
In my nabe, one of those vacant homes hasn’t been lived in for almost three years. But people driving taxicabs keep stopping by. We neighbors don’t understand why. Grow house? Stash house? We can’t see what’s going on.
‘New data from the U.S. Census Bureau shows, among the 75 largest metro areas in the U.S., Tucson is in the top 10 for highest percentage of vacant rentals and for-sale properties.’
‘About 20.8 percent of rentals are not leased - ranking ninth - and 2.9 percent of homes for sale are vacant - ranking eighth. Arizona has the second highest rate in the U.S. of homes that are vacant and for sale at 3.3 percent.’
‘The state also has the 14th highest rate of empty rental homes, with 9.2 percent of such properties lacking a renter.’
High vacancy rates are the best indicator that I know of that a market has too much housing (independent of shadow inventory).
We have way too much housing here. That’s a big part of this state’s problem. Too much of the economy has been driven by building houses for people who are going to move here and sell houses.
High vacancy rates are the best indicator that I know of that a market has too much housing (independent of shadow inventory).
It could also mean that too many people are not being realistic about how much they can actually get for their houses.
Good point, MightyMike. There are a lot of places for sale and for rent at very high prices. Meanwhile, local job and income growth rates are pokey. Very pokey.
That can be true, however, such situations generally don’t persist forever. It is not a zero cost proposition to own an empty piece of real estate, even if you have no debt. As such, generally speaking, market participants if they are faced with too much vacancy, will lower rent (increase concessions), to compete with others in order to fill up that vacancy–until of course, the rent is simply not worth the additional wear and tear of having that tenant in the space.
You can also insert “buyer” where I say “renter”.
I think though Slim’s comment about job growth is a good one. No matter what the rent, if you don’t have a job, you aren’t going to be keen on buying or renting a house/apartment.
IMHO, I see the red flags in the housing market as locales where there is massive price appreciation, with large numbers of vacant units. There is potential for a real negative shock if some of the owners of vacant homes decide to drop their pricing/list more for sale, etc.
You don’t have the same potential if owners of vacant housing stock exist in much lower numbers.
Very likely a den of iniquity.
That’s the neighborhood consensus, ibbots.
I mean, come on. Who moves away from a house and lets it sit for almost three years? Even the slow-to-foreclose Big Banks move faster than that.
Our local rental market may suck, but if you make SOME effort to find a tenant, you can.
Oh, Drudge…
“The travel costs for vacations taken by the first family and the Bidens have reached over $40 million with the Air Force’s revelation that two golf outings by President Obama this year cost $2.9 Million, according to the taxpayer watchdog group Judicial Watch.”
Somebody posted a link to Judicial Watch las week. I checked it out. They appear to have new revelations about the Obama family’s travel expenses on a weekly basis.
George W. Bush went Greyhound to Crawford when he went on vacation.
Yeah, for what, 10 minutes? Baloney.
Photo App, I would bet. Politicians (all of them) like to play the masses.
How much does it cost to take Air Force 1 out for a spin?
I’ll bet the security detail costs more than the actual flight.
Years ago I read a book called What It Takes, which about the 1998 presidential election. There was a section that described a trip that VP George H. W. Bush took to Houston to throw out the first pitch at an Astros game. The amount of work required by the Secret Service, an agency called WHCA and the Houston police department to make all of that happen was enormous.
Shock Video: Long Beach Cops Execute Unarmed, Fleeing Suspect, Claim They Felt Threatened
Eyewitness footage contradicts police statement
Adan Salazar
Infowars.com
April 30, 2014
Long Beach police worked in tandem with the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department to execute a fleeing suspect Sunday, later releasing a statement that has been contradicted by eyewitness footage of the events.
This past weekend, Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputies were summoned to a Target store in Compton to deal with a scissor-wielding criminal who then fled, leading them on a 15-minute car chase which ended in Long Beach.
WARNING: Graphic video and language
Man exits vehicle at 1:54 in the video.
In footage that appeared Monday on Youtube, 36-year-old Jason Conoscenti can be seen exiting his vehicle carrying a large wooden stick, while the officers who chased him stay back.
Conoscenti suddenly takes off on foot towards the beach, running down a flight of stairs with a police K9 in pursuit.
Seconds later, he is shot in the back and a barrage of other shots ring out before he collapses lifeless at the bottom of the stairs.
People watching the events unfold can be overheard exclaiming, “Wow, are you kidding me?” and several people ask if anyone is going to help him.
Disturbingly, Conoscenti is left to writhe in pain at the bottom of the stairs for close to a minute and a half before anyone comes to render aid. Finally, four Long Beach officers emerge with guns trained on him.
Long Beach police say they were at the foot of the stairs when Conoscenti ran down and that they’re the ones that employed lethal force to stop the man, who they believed was emerging from a gunfight with police when they encountered him fleeing.
Statements from both Long Beach PD and the L.A. County Sheriff’s Department say deputies attempted to employ non-lethal Stunbag rounds in an attempt to subdue the suspect. These shots can be heard in another video that appeared online yesterday:
However, Long Beach PD’s statement adds that officers observed Conoscenti “reaching for his waist band,” when the video clearly shows this not to be the case.
Former LAPD detective Tim Williams told NBC Los Angeles the shooting did not need to happen.
“I do not see (the suspect) reach his waist band at all,” Williams told KNBC. “From my observations from looking at this video tape, (the shooting) is not justified, I think it’s objectively unreasonable and it’s, my opinion, is excessive force.”
http://www.infowars.com/shock-video-long-beach-cops-execute-fleeing-man-claim-they-felt-threatened/ - 70k -
CRRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAAAAATERRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!
Speaking of crater, the DOW closed at another record high today. The pre-recession high was hit in October 2007, as the wheels were falling off the bus of the housing market and mortgage-backed security “industry”, which is why I asked (again) above if it’s starting to feel like 2007-2008 again.
Feels exactly like 2007 with the exception of the fact that there are far fewer participants on Main Street.
crater
http://www.fopple.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/moon-crater-house-shape-design-front-view.jpg
That place wouldn’t happen to be in the Craterton, DC would it?
nice
Everyone must check in.
Checking in from FEMA Region IV
Do you want me to read the card?
Remember, you have to hyperventilate before you read the card.
Uh huh:
http://maine.craigslist.org/ofc/4448036988.html
Is it even legal to have unpaid internships that aren’t a part of an accredited educational program?
I am not against a place having internships. Free market and all that. Heck, there was a time I was willing to volunteer at pharmas to learn HPLC and mass spec and other lab stuff because it was in high demand but nobody wanted to know you if you did not have it on your resume.
I am ambivalent about minimum wage support. What good is it to give people a raise and then let businesses off the hook, so to speak, by having them fire/lay-off/reduce hours? Let MW stay put and let companies have to do the rash decision of NOT BEING ABLE TO BLAME minimum wage increase because their business model is getting eroded by the current business cycle.
Heck, I’d advocate no minimum wage at all because every person could contract their services and even maybe start their own competing businesses. You could contract workers at whatever rate. The market would not be able to handle the competition that would develop. I’d expect massive price deflation. Wish Mitt Romney would answer my phone calls about this.
The market would not be able to handle the competition that would develop.
What do you mean by this?
I’d expect massive price deflation.
According to pretty well-accepted economic theories, there would be a number of effects from eliminating the minimum wage. First of all, many low income people would experience a pay cut, which would be bad for them and the businesses for which they are customers. Some of those people who not currently eligible for programs such as food stamps or Medicaid would becom eligible, thus increasing spending on thos programs.
Their employers would save money. That savings would be split. Some would go to lowered prices and some to increased profits.
In addition to that, lots of new jobs would be created at a level below the current minimum wage.
Is that you Aunt Beatrice? Or is it Lola?
Can’t let that happen. Earning below minimum wage opens up a whole world of government freebees. Reduce their pay and you’d increase their standard of living.
“What do you mean by this?”
“In addition to that, lots of new jobs would be created at a level below the current minimum wage.”
Not sure I can answer wrt my argument that probably has not already been written about. I think wage minimums are not guaranteeing anything in society. When I think about the scenario of people out of work or urban decay, I think that minimum wage can not help that area. Hate to sound snobbish, but I don’t think BFE places in Appalachia or the rural south have businesses relocating even if they could get land dirt cheap or workers at WM. There are tons of jobs up here in Maine that pay MW or a bit above it and if they are bundled in a higher real estate cost area like it is up here, it means that the wage can not wag the dog. I guess I want companies to have no excuses anymore for the poor business cycle and blaming workers.
‘Can’t let that happen. Earning below minimum wage opens up a whole world of government freebees. Reduce their pay and you’d increase their standard of living.’
I view it as a constant subset percentage-wise or maybe a few more would choose to join the FSA because word got out that their lowered pay means more FSA stuff. However that is all you got? Business says MW should not be increased. Person on the street probably sways with however the question is phrased. You tell him or her that eliminating MW means more welfare and they would probably say they are for MW. But ask that same person if they think the government has any right to tell you as a business person how much you have to pay your worker and they might change their stance.
I don’t think businesses would know what hit them if they eliminated MW. Why would anyone choose to work at Walmart unless they paid more than Target or Toys R Us or XYZ?
Hate to sound snobbish, but I don’t think BFE places in Appalachia or the rural south have businesses relocating even if they could get land dirt cheap or workers at WM.
This is a part of the “free market” argument against the minimum wage. Workers in places are worth less per hour than the minimum wage. Businesses in those areas might want to hire people for two dollars per hours, but that’s forbidden by law, so the jobs are not created.
Regarding the increase in welfare spending, it wouldn’t be due to people choosing to join the FSA. It would occur because some families with minimum wage workers who are barely getting by wouldn’t be able to survive if they suddenly faced a big cut in their wages. They would have to turn to welfare just to survive. By definition, these generally wouldn’t be lazy people sitting around collecting checks form the government. They’d be people who simply couldn’t find a job that pays a living wage.
They’d be people who simply couldn’t find a job that pays a living wage.
Mike you live in a fantasy world.
fantasy world? Please explain.
Personally I think the minimum wage law is stupid. I have worked for less than minimum wage as a young pup. Supposed to make it on tips, lol. One of my kids is MR and has her room and board covered as well as her clothing, transportation, medical and even a spending allowance. She would like to work, but can’t because employers can’t pay a fair wage for her low productivity under the law. So, we pay for her to be in art class where she can do something with her hands and mind.
Thank you government!
I will be retired soon and I know the workarounds to minimum wage laws if I need a few extra bucks. You master planner wannabees don’t live in the real world.
Employers get state subsidies to hire people with certain types of disabilities for low-skilled jobs. The trouble is that they turn out not to be worth it. Mentally retarded people can’t handle it emotionally. They disrupt the business. We pay taxes to make sure that your daughter gets the basics.
And those taxes come from ….wages!
You do realize that the United States already tried to function without a minimum wage, right? That was one of the things that enabled the deflationary spiral that caused the Great Depression. So you see, the minimum wage is not stupid at all. It is a necessary (but not sufficient) element of the social safety net. It was engineered by people who witnessed first-hand what happens when there is no social safety net. People who delude themselves into thinking that history can’t repeat itself might be stupid, though.
German landlord tries to collect rent with chainsaw.
April 2, 2014 8:41 AM
BERLIN (Reuters) - A landlord demanding rent arrears threatened tenants and German police with a whirring chainsaw, a police spokesman said on Wednesday.
The frightened tenants called police to the scene, and the 45-year-old man eventually dropped the chainsaw when the officers showed their guns.
The spokesman said the landlord was apparently trying to collect 13,000 euros ($17,900) in rent on a flat in the southern town of Burgau. He was charged with threatening bodily harm.
($1 = 0.7249 Euros)
(Reporting by Monica Raymunt; Editing by Mark Trevelyan)
http://news.yahoo.com/german-landlord-tries-collect-rent-chainsaw-124143414–sector.html - 210k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A52p9jc-gOo
Where is Amy?
Ya know….
Ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
It’s not warm when she’s away
Ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
She always gone too long anytime she goes away
Wonder this time where she’s gone
Wonder if she’s gone to stay
Ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
This house just ain’t no home anytime she goes away
I know
I know
I know
Hey, I oughta leave the young thing alone
But ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
Ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
Only darkness everyday
Ain’t no Cheetos when she’s gone
This house just ain’t no home
Anytime she goes away
Anytime she goes away
Anytime she goes away
Anytime she goes away
Bill Withers - Ain’t No Sunshine - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIdIqbv7SPo - 145k -
http://wewhoareabouttodie.files.wordpress.com/2010/08/cheetos-girl.jpeg
Once again, I do not understand why you insist on the poofy ones. You need the crunchy ones.
Yeah but the voluminous Cheetos are better for my diet plan.
Scrubbing toilets per her penultimate article.
The soundtrack of a life of a renter:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YyGdhvtklc8
Do NOT buy a used house, you’ll be sorry. VERY SORRY
Snoops got quite the potty mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Nhcv6Ho3ic
http://maine.craigslist.org/trd/4444973446.html
http://lewiston.craigslist.org/lab/4412065013.html
“Clearly, powerful forces must be at work to perpetuate the cycle. One is obvious: the bottom line. Companies would rather not pay STEM professionals high salaries with lavish benefits, offer them training on the job, or guarantee them decades of stable employment. So having an oversupply of workers, whether domestically educated or imported, is to their benefit. It gives employers a larger pool from which they can pick the “best and the brightest,” and it helps keep wages in check.”
http://spectrum.ieee.org/at-work/education/the-stem-crisis-is-a-myth
no duh
I think STEM is good. Just don’t spend a ton of money going to a high-priced school to get that degree. In fact, go to a community college and transfer the credits to a 4 year school.
I am almost tempted to apply. Not too keen cold calling folks about precious metals. I do like the idea of selling them though:
http://lewiston.craigslist.org/sls/4436499408.html
Jimi Hendrix - Crosstown Traffic:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KngOuqUm-mQ
See the color of my t shirt? It used to be white. That’s the power of Cheetos.
http://picpaste.com/pics/d83bc98ddf4bf2caa7b2dd8673d56f08.1398905819.jpg
Is that you HA ?
Yes. On the computer in my mothers basement. Can’t you tell by the grid ceiling?
‘Yes. On the computer in my mothers basement.’
You been working out?
God no. Whenever I get the urge to do anything physical I lay down on the couch and wait for it to go away.
3,944 followers on Twitter. Read it and weep, boys!
Cheetos. Sandwich. MOVE.
Oh dear, are you OK? How’s mom?
That monetizes out to about 20 bucks. Not enough for many sandwich fixings and Babo for the toilets.
Pretty sad for as wide a marketwatch exposure as you got.
This website is hilarious. People post stories of unfortunate things that have happened to them, and then you can vote as to whether or not they deserved it. I’m pretty sure a lot of it is made up, though. Maybe we can find FB stories, and vote “you deserved it”.
https://www.fmylife.com/