Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
Posted By: Ben Jones @ 12:28 am
When this current bubble bursts (actually, multiple bubbles - we live in a bubbleverse!) I have little doubt stocks and RE will get taken out and shot, but will we finally see bonds and the dollar beaten like rented mules as well?
Yellen sounded like she could use a clue.
She telegraphed loudly about housing yesterday- more to come.
If Pete Rose and Newt Gingrich had a female child together, she would grow up to be Yellen.
…and so Bill Cosby, Beverly Sills, Johnny Cash and Connie Chung formed a rock band in the 70’s…they were called Cosby, Sills, Cash and Chung…
I thought it was the half man and half women Ghost of Janet Yellen talking? Her vocabulary sounded like she had Greenspan’s Johnson in her mouth while she spoke as she sounded similar to him. Her circular logic was brilliant and most congressmen wanted to cozy up to her. The theatrics put up by the panel questioning her was disgusting.
Congressmen want o cozy up to her because their portfolios depend on it. Remember how Congress leaves office so much richer after only a few years? They are probably lobbying her to say something influencial for the day traders back in the Rayburn office to take advantage of.
I apologize for my crass comment but she made me angry. These people seem like they get it but don’t give a sh*t about Americans or the country as a whole.
Just my 2 cents
Never apologize. Your friends don’t need it and your enemies won’t believe you anyway.
Cupertino, CA Sale Prices Turn Negative 2.4% As Housing Demand Plunges
Santa Monica, CA Sale Price Slide 5% YoY As Inventory Rises
Walnut Creek, CA Housing Prices Plunge 18% YoY As Inventory Balloons
Alameda, CA Rental Rates Crater 11% YoY; Rental Vacancy Rate Jumps
This is pretty surprising to me…I would have expected that cash buyers would have fallen off a cliff, which they did in LA, but they seem to have spiked in other parts of the country.
It is like a group of snakes having a pig eating contest. The pig is passing through the python at different rates in different places. Phoenix is one of the “winning” snakes. The investors are long gone there where the jig is up.
But have you ever been there to see what happens when that pig finally passes through the python. I have and it ain’t pretty. I actually personally saw it happen with Damien, the snake for Jake the Snake Roberts when he was training in my same gym. He had eaten a rabbit some time before and now there was — Snake$hit everywhere — and poor Jake wiping it up with a towel.
That’s gonna be you with the towel if you don’t get out soon.
The “pig in the python” is a demographic parameter, not a geographic one.
Why is this basic fact so hard to explain to people?
Demographics is destiny as far as the housing market is concerned.
You can’t exactly manufacture brand new people born in 1953, you know!
Hey, kitty. Welcome back. Gonna hang out for a while?
I don’t think I have anything worthwhile to contribute any more. It’s the same stuff and I’m feeling a touch of the ol’ ennui.
I appreciate our host’s enthusiasm but I’ve seen this charade before and I’m worn out.
If I have an original idea (which does happen from time to time), I’ll come in with gun’s blazin’.
Why weird? In 2005 there was talk of equity rolling across the country as the bubble spread to cheaper areas. The bubble popped before the equity rolled very far. Now the cash is doing the same thing. Question is how far the will roll.
Weird because this time, cash-out refinances are pretty much non-existent (there is very little investment $ coming from the housing piggie bank), so the “equity rolling” is coming from a different place.
Also, in CA, the cash buyers have been substantially reduced…because buying and renting doesn’t make sense anymore. In other states, home prices have also gone up considerably, presumably making the “buy to rent” strategy also less attractive. Why did they slow to a crawl in CA, but increased elsewhere?
I suspect it’s because they (RE funds that raised money to buy homes) still have capital to deploy. Lots of folks I know thought the buying opportunity would go on a lot longer, and so I’m guessing they sized accordingly…it turned a lot faster than people thought, so they may be scrambling to get the money out.
There is no irrigation water for Central Valley farms this season, so no produce, no jobs, no income, no…? Does anyone think this will drive CRE and/or home prices skyward?
article chock full ‘o stats details the collapse of marriage in usa
because the kidz don’t have any money to get married
and the ones with money are smart enough to go bill in los angeles and never get married. cue up the hamster shaming about ‘where have all the good men gone?’
This is not good news for Lola’s wedding planner gig.
And Liberace loses his weekend day time harpsichording gigs.
This is tragic.
I got married for $42. $38 for the marriage license, $2 for parking, and I treated my lovely bride to a bagel with cream cheese from the courthouse deli for $2 after the ‘ceremony’.
Did you at least try to bargain with them on the $38 bucks for the license? C’mon, your leaving nickels on the table!
Good for you, ibbots. So how long have you been hitched?
legally - 2+ years; practically - 9+ years.
Nah. Speaking for myself and nearly all of my male friends, we’re essentially boycotting marriage because the social contract has been broken, likely beyond repair. Marriage provides almost no real, tangible, or practical benefits to men that they can’t get while single, and the downside - particularly financially - is huge.
I have a few female friends that have been on the receiving end of divorce. Where they made more money, etc, and they are unanimously appalled at how the courts treat non-custodial parents and former breadwinners.
Until the laws are changed, what’s the point?
The system sucks. The institution of marriage, the institution of religion, and the institution of government.
Forgot to add another one: The institution of home ownership. That sucks too.
All four mean slavery.
“the social contract”
There is none. Not in marriage, not between you and “society,” not between you and the flying spaghetti monster. Show us where we sign such a contract.
warmist warming for dannyboy:
‘while the koch brothers admit to not being experts on the matter, these billionaire oil tycoons are certainly experts at contributing to climate change. that’s what they do very well. they are one of the main causes of this. not a cause, one of the main causes.’ — harry reid, senate floor speech 5/7/2014
blurb from wall street journal article behind subscriber paywall
obama climate-change push faces a lukewarm public
polls show climate change ranks low when voters are asked to assess priorities
‘the white house rollout of a climate-change report this week was aimed squarely at showing the public that inaction affects people directly, covering everything from extreme weather to seasonal allergies.
but left unanswered is the question of whether a broad public-relations push — which features president barack obama chatting with tv meteorologists including nbc’s al roker — will be enough to make americans care.’
A shame what happened to the Weather Channel.
What once was quite good 15-25 years ago now is awful.
Blanket statement about most all of the offerings from cable…nothing of interest to see
More warmist warming from Obama rag the New York Times:
“A new scientific report on global warming released this week, the National Climate Assessment, named Miami as one of the cities most vulnerable to severe damage as a result of rising sea levels … Florida’s politicians, including two possible contenders for the presidency in 2016, are starkly at odds over what to do about it and whether the problem is even real.”
American Exceptionalism from the bedwetting New York Times:
“Perhaps more than any other rich nation, Americans are skeptical that climate change is a dire issue. In Pew Research Center surveys conducted last spring, 40 percent of Americans said that global climate change was a major threat to their country. More than 50 percent of Canadians, Australians, French and Germans gave that answer. More than 60 percent of Italians and Spaniards did. And more than 70 percent of Japanese did.”
And you think I’m joking when I say that science is European, socialist, and probably gay?
Why don’t you take all your uppity “science” and go back to Europe. You can keep your trains and bicycles and tiny apartments, and we’ll keep our Hummers and McMansions and Big Gulps.
‘Merica f* yeah!
LOLZ, when you put it that way, the US looks like a better proposition.
Junk science, like the science that told us for 40 years red meat was evil because of high fat content.
Salt. Don’t forget salt. It also was once evil.
It’s still evil.
If you’re a leech, I guess that is so.
it’s good to be the king
‘we may not be miami, new york or beverly hills, but the washington area has its share of showcase houses.
with the help of rockville-based multiple listing service mris, we compiled this list of several over-the-top properties on the market that range from $8 million to $22 million’
How can you tell when bubble 2.0 has reached its peak?
ReMax is running their hot air balloon tee-vee commercials, that’s how.
Seriously, I remember them doing the EXACT SAME THING at the peak of 1.0. It’s sort of like a signal. lolz
article for j-j-j-joe
wall street journal - why gay workers decide to stay in the closet
‘for many young gay professionals, even those who were openly gay on their college campuses, entering the workforce is still a fraught experience. some keep their sexuality a secret as a way to protect their career aspirations.’
Is that staying in the closet or going back into the closet? Everyone knows pretty soon anyway unless you avoid social situations. You’re in your mid twenties with a new job, everyone is running around hormones and cash raging, trying to hook up.
And if they were openly gay on their college campuses in the last few years then there is some facebookie twittery stuff out there for sure anyway. Just sounds like more page filler nonsense.
Perhaps they’re going back in the closet (becoming “cured”?) to help their future GOP congressional prospects. Lindsey “Benghazi” Graham appears to be steamrolling towards a 4th term, btw.
I don’t understand how it helps anyone’s career to be straight, at least in a big city. At jenner, approximately 50% of the people on my floor were gay and probably 2/3 of the people who do appellate litigation (the most prestigious dept in the DC office) were gay. I kept a pair of jeans in my coat closet just because there were numerous fundraisers during the year where you could make a donation to this or that gay rights cause and wear jeans for the day to “show your support”. I didn’t want to look like some type of homophobe and not have a pair of jeans handy on those days.
In our corner of the military industrial complex, there is nobody I’m aware of in this building that is out of the closet gay.
At DoE there was no stigma about being out, guess that “free love” goes along with all the hippie dippie solar panels and wind turbines.
and when obama isn’t too busy pimping climate change, he is protecting the constitutional right of your kidz to attend schools full of ms-13 gang members:
meanwhile, out in hollyweird on wednesday, obama fundraising for the midterm elections, article in variety notes attendees included:
barbara streisand, jeffrey katzenberg, tom rothman, james brolin, nancy pelosi and michael bennett
followed by the usc shoah foundation ambassadors for humanity gala attended by:
steven spielberg, toby emmerich, ron meyer, jeff garlin, samuel l. jackson, liam neeson, conan o’brien and bruce springsteen
And Donald Sterling would have been right there schmoozing with them all only a month ago.
The public elementary school that serves millionaires row in Pasadena gets a 2/5 rating.
Bulletin LIVE BLOG AND VIDEO: Fed’s Yellen appears before Senate Budget Committee »
May 8, 2014, 7:51 a.m. EDT
43% of 2014 home buyers paid all cash
What the reliance on cash sales means for housing
By Quentin Fottrell
Americans are still buying homes in all-cash deals, despite more investors leaving the market, according to a new report.
All-cash purchases accounted for almost 43% of all sales of residential property in the first quarter of 2014, up from almost 38% in the previous quarter and 19% in the first quarter of 2013, according to data released Thursday from real-estate data firm RealtyTrac. “It’s a surprising thing for us that cash sales have stayed high for so long even though the big hedge fund investors have pulled out of the market a bit,” says Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “The high percentage of cash sales reveals the soft underbelly of the housing recovery.”
Experts say the high percentage of those paying cash won’t last much longer, though. “Cash buyers will become few and far between,” Blomquist says. So who does have the money to buy a home outright? Wealthy Americans and downsizing empty nesters make some of these all-cash deals, he says. Investors who are eager to make a profit by buying low and renting those properties — or flipping them — also drive up the number of all-cash deals, he adds.
When the black electorate consistently votes 110% for the Democrat party, and thanks to LBJ and Teddy Kennedy, black kids only have Big Government as a daddy, is bleak news like this any kind of surprise?
but in the diseased, delusional, liberal mind, statistics like these are somehow still the fault of all those evil, rich, white republicans:
I actually read that one. The guy says that it’s the drug war that has caused such a high rate of gang-related murder in the cities. In other words, it’s the fault of the (mostly non-black) PTB, not impoverished black people.
So the headline doesn’t reflect the contents of the article well. I wonder if the person who wrote the headline wrote it that way to get more attention from the typical infowars reader.
“the typical infowars reader”
Don’t worry, when Dianne Feinstein gets her way, there won’t be any infowars left to read.
The New York Times will decide what you’re allowed to think, dirty peasant.
Look at the bright side: We’ll be more like our idol, China.
Subsidize more fatherless families of all races, colors and creeds. I had a dream…
How much do you pay for rent each month?
12% of income, an amount which shall remain undisclosed, lest I attract even more groupies trying to get a piece of this action.
Yeah but what’s left over?
Enough to pay off oxide’s Loan Depot and Blowe’s credit cards.
Which as astute HBB readers know, is ALOT of money.
It’s time for a snack. Where is the beer and Cheetos fetcher?
Benghazi needs deeper scrutiny - Trey Gowdy, USA TODAY
As I’ve said before, this fiasco is going to be the Dems Watergate. Watch and learn. For some reason they left our ambassador out in the open, kind of like they wanted him to die.
1. When they asked for more security, they didn’t get it.
2. On Aug 31 the Libyan security contractor was let go.
3. When they got attacked “all” of the big shots were indisposed.
4. We haven’t brought anyone to judgment.
5. We haven’t interviewed any Libyans.
Trey Howdy is an ex-prosecutor that’s going to be perfect for getting to the bottom of what happened.
“Trey Howdy is an ex-prosecutor ”
Dime a dozen. Many prosecutors are really dumb and it’s exacerbated by being a “true believer” in the system. It’s not like he was at DOJ, he was literally prosecuting meth heads in some of the poorest areas of SC (Spartanburg).
It also doesn’t help that Trey Gowdy is almost literally retarded. He is no Ken Starr or Peter Fitzgerald.
Nobody, and I mean nobody, is Peter Fitzgerald. *hearts*
OK sorry I knew something wasn’t right. It’s Patrick Fitzgerald.
♫ ♥♪ ♥ ♫ ♥ ♫ ♪
Is it time to re-open the Marine barracks bombing in Lebanon back in 1982?
There was also an airplane crash in Gander, Newfoundland carrying soldiers from Europe as well as munitions destined for the Contra Rebels. Reagan stonewalled the entire investigation by burying the facts and materials citing “Executive Privilege,” IIRC.
OK. We’ll see how good he is. Watch and learn.
It could be entertaining. I saw this in the WaPo:
Meet the chief prosecutor in the GOP’s Benghazi show trial
By Dana Milbank, Published: May 7
Rep. Trey Gowdy, the tea party Republican tapped to lead the new committee investigating the 2012 Benghazi attacks, made a telling slip Wednesday morning in describing his mission.
Asked by MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough about the possibility that his panel’s work would continue into the 2016 election campaign, Gowdy replied that “if an administration is slow-walking document production, I can’t end a trial simply because the defense won’t cooperate.”
A trial? And the Obama administration is the defense? So much for that “serious investigation” House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) promised; his new chairman intends to play prosecutor, proving the administration’s guilt to the jury — in this case, the public.
“This is all about getting to the truth,” Boehner asserted. “It’s not going to be a circus. This is a serious investigation.”
To demonstrate the seriousness, the National Republican Congressional Committee, under the control of House Republican leaders, started a fundraising campaign Wednesday urging donors to become “Benghazi watchdogs” along with “Chief Benghazi Watchdog Congressman Trey Gowdy.”
“House Republicans will make sure that no one will get away from Gowdy and the Select Committee,” it said, adding, “Help fight liberals by donating today.”
Gowdy disagreed with that approach in his MSNBC interview, saying, “I have never sought to raise a single penny on the backs of four murdered Americans.”
It emerged later in the day that Gowdy had, in fact, spoken about Benghazi at a fundraiser. But perhaps he should be forgiven this memory lapse. As chief prosecutor in the show trial of the president, he has a lot on his mind.
What are they hiding? If they would lay their cards on the table they would. Instead they’re going to drag it out for as long as they can.
Where was Barrack? Where was Ms Clinton? Who made the decision “not” to send in any special forces? The guys that did go in were not following their orders because they knew the orders were BS.
There’s a lot more to come. I’m just trying to warn y’all because when it does, the Prez and Hillary are going to have a lot of explaining to do.
“Housing is a money pit.”
You better believe it. Especially considering current resale housing prices are 3x higher than construction costs(lot, materials, labor, profit).
Renting is half the cost of buying so you know what to do. Buy later for 70% less.
Cash is king. Realized another $5000 in gains the last 7 days by selling 170 shares of former company stock.
Those batches I bought at $5.73 26 months ago and sold at north of $35.
IE (So Ca) 8th grade assignment- The Holocaust, fiction or not? The teacher is getting sensitivity training, when they should be fired. We are way to lenient are dysfunctional curriculum. And who approved this?
To paraphrase George Orwell, some holocausts are more equal than others.
The twenty million that Stalin murdered don’t get much mention in the American curriculum.
Nor does the Rwandan genocide that happened only twenty years ago.
See also “The Holocaust Industry” by Norman G. Finkelstein.
And the 60 million that Mao ordered killed also did not get a glance by the “progressive” American education system either.
And the tens of thousands murdered (at least 40,000) in Sri Lanka in 2008-2009 didn’t get an iota of media coverage here in the States.
Why is that?
Strange I don’t hear boo-hooing and howling victimhood rants demanding distinguished recognition from my Georgian laborer foreman(USSR conscript paratrooper and Afghani-USSR war veteran) and his ukranian labor immigrants who are holed up in hovels in BrightonBeach Brooklyn on weekends and living in hotel rooms hundreds of miles from home during the week….
why is that?
Why don’t you ask them?
Add the Armenian holocaust of WW1 to the list, along with the British invention of the concentration camp during the Boer War.
Why get fired for this when teachers who air and promote their politics in classrooms don’t get fired?
When I saw several pro-Progressive posters on the walls of my nephew’s classroom, I told off the teacher and informed his parents.
He was going to a different school two weeks later.
Good job MacBeth
When I saw several pro-Progressive posters on the walls of my nephew’s classroom, I told off the teacher and informed his parents.
How did the teacher respond to that?
Mouth agape .. and that’s about it.
A case for a 10 to 20 percent stock correction this summer
“One characteristic of a mid-cycle expansion is rising employment and I nearly fell off my chair when I saw this chart. Despite the blowout Non-Farm Payroll release last Friday, the relative performance of the business training and staffing agency stocks is highly disappointing. This group broke down through a relative uptrend that began in late 2012 and they are now in an accelerating relative downtrend. You have to ask what Mr. Market is trying to tell us about expectations of the employment outlook when these stocks display this kind of performance.”
Staffing agencies do well in recoveries, but fade off in late stages of the recovery. I saw this trend happening as the hourly rates the pimps (oops I mean recruiters) offer get lower every new gig even though the clients might or might not pay the same amount directly to the shop. In essence, the pimps are too greedy for one, and convincing the newbies to shopping that they are not worth much, so the newbies lowball themselves and that also means lowballing the veteran consultants like me.
I think the consulting gold mine is peaking, in essence, and the trend is to go back as a direct hire. This does not mean you can no longer think of yourself as a temporary employee. In L.A. in the 80s lots of engineers hopped from one company to another every two or three years and took pay increases per hop.
So what if the consulting gold mine is peaking? It means the direct hire benefits are probably coming back, with compensation. My boss sold out and a larger company bought him. The new boss said there will be more compensation. How much, I don’t know. I am conservatively guessing 10%. And that puts me around where I would be if I was still consulting. On the plus side, I don’t have to travel exhausting distances between client and my Arizona residence. I am focusing more and more on health and diet and time off, less on building up $. I am still building up $ but using the momentum of my big stash of assets I built up as a consultant.
Hey y’all! Get ‘em while you can!
“Giorgio Borlenghi” eh? This guy will become another bankrupt a$$wipe and join the trash heap of other Trump Trainees.
And note the article indicates they’re deposits. Not sales.
Ice Cube - What They Hittin’ Foe?
EVERYONE MUST CHECK IN
Well, the night was falling as the desert world
Began to settle down.
In the town they’re searching for him everywhere
But he never will be found.
Fire Chief on the run,
Fire Chief on the run.
And the county judge who held a grudge
Will search for evermore
For the Fire Chief on the run,
Fire Chief on the run
Fire Chief on the run
Fire Chief on the run
Manhunt on for Fire Chief Suspected of Killing Girlfriend
A statewide manhunt is underway for a California fire battalion chief suspected of stabbing his girlfriend to death.
Investigators say 55-year-old Orville “Moe” Fleming killed 26-year-old Sarah Douglas at their Sacramento home last week.
After looking for Fleming in the area, authorities expanded their search statewide, saying the Cal Fire battalion chief, who was based out of Ione, is an avid outdoorsman who has keys to fire gates, trails and Cal Fire facilities.
A spokesperson for Cal Fire said those keys give Fleming access to hundreds of miles of back roads, and other state supplies and facilities throughout California.
Courtesy the family via KCRASarah Douglas, 26, shared a home with Orville Fleming. Her sister found her body Thursday morning.
“We believe someone picked him up and took him somewhere,” Sacramento County Sheriff’s Department spokeswoman Sgt. Lisa Bowman told NBC News. “We do not know who that is.”
Officials say Fleming has spent a lot of time in the Santa Cruz Mountains.
Santa Cruz County deputies are keeping an eye out for the suspect, but at this point there is no active search taking place in the Santa Cruz Mountains, according to the sheriff’s department.
What towns, cities and states shall we cover tomorrow?
Surprise! Some REITs are doing better than stocks in general and gold.
Up by more than 15% YTD
Vanguard REIT Index Fund
I took a peek at some of the largest holdings and found some interesting stuff:
The biggest gainer of its largest holdings is Health Care REIT, Inc (HCN). So far, since the beginning of the year, the stock price has advanced 19.55%. Which means …
HCN is full of magic!
The price went up in spite of it sporting a P/E of 714.56, having cash per share on hand of only $0.55 yet paying out a dividend of $3.18.
But not to worry, it should more than make up for any cash shortfall because it’s ROE is an astounding 1.30%.
In addition …
HNC’s cash flow statement says that in 2013 it:
Paid out $941,867,000 in dividends, raised $1,836,462,000 via sales of its shares (a wee bit of dilution here, no?) and it borrowed $770,169,000.
Add the amount of money it received from stock sales to the amount of money it borrowed and you will get a sum of $2,606,631,000. If anybody wonders where the money came from to pay out dividends you just might want to consider looking at this number.
Holy moly, that doesn’t look so good…
Might look sufficiently bad as to be worth doing some more research and considering a short position…
Warren and Schumer strike again…
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