Bits Bucket for May 14, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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After surveying the area where yesterday’s Bernardo Fire broke out, I realized what a great stroke of luck it was that the fire started in an area that is freshly cleared and graded for new home construction. There was little available fuel for it to feed on before it covered a large area.
Viewing these photos is sure to make you want to buy a place as soon as possible right in the path of the next big Santa Ana fire!
Photo galleries
BERNARDO FIRE
will this fire detract from the robust sellers market in s cal?
No. Homes in our neighborhood are once again selling at 2004 price levels.
will this fire detract from the robust sellers market in s cal?
At this point trying to apply logic to that market is sheer folly. And Southern Californians are accustomed to fires. Just like traffic jams, gang bangers, Disneyland and those damn pesky Argentinian black ants, it’s part and parcel of life down there.
Fire crews gain ground on San Diego wildfire, evacuation orders lifted
By Marty Graham
SAN DIEGO Wed May 14, 2014 3:35am EDT
(Reuters) - California fire crews were gaining ground late on Tuesday on a wind-whipped wildfire that blackened more than a square mile in San Diego county, allowing authorities to lift thousands of evacuation orders in the area.
No injuries have been reported and no homes damaged in the blaze, officials said. The cause of the fire, which erupted on Tuesday morning amid temperatures above 100 Fahrenheit (38 Celsius) and high winds, remained unclear.
The so-called Bernardo fire comes as California enters its peak fire season in the midst of one of its worst droughts in decades, setting the stage for what state officials worry could be a particularly intense and dangerous year.
“That’s the problem, we have increased temperatures, low humidity and very high winds that are fanning the flames and pushing fire along,” said Lynne Tolmachoff, a spokeswoman for the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection.
…
its global warming.
It is breezy and 81 at 4:45 am in this hilly area. Lots of fuel here. I am leery about this.
Bill, got platinum, palladium and gold? Thought so, life is good. Sorry will not be able to post more today but the manipulation is breaking down.
I am watching the chart on gold. It is almost certain to have reached a bottom back a few weeks ago. Life is indeed good.
Charts cannot predict the future. Nothing can.
Actually I checked Platinum. The five year chart suggests that the platinum price burst out of its long term downtrend since its 2011 peak.
And then Palladium - wow that’s hot! I see why you like it. It’s near the all time peak.
These charts also bode well for gold.
Gold ? Buy cigarettes MO has been very good to me over the years.
Platinum and Palladium are much more interesting than Gold if you like to make high tech stuff.
They interact with hydrogen store it and release it
Thanks Cactus. 7% of my net worth is in physical precious metals. 59% in stocks and stock funds. Probably have some pieces of MO in some funds. I enjoy my dividends. But still am trying to get above 10% of net worth in metals.
But still am trying to get above 10% of net worth in metals.”
T Rowe Price tells me the multi cycle commodity boom is over.
FWIW
They like transports but probably old news if I’m reading it.
Around here lots of people are investing in weird stuff like S-corps, railroad tank cars, god knows what else ? Gasp real estate !!
I like simple stuff like index funds, easy to understand.
Good luck Bill see you in Phoenix some day
Phoenix is on my short list. I miss it when I’m here in Cali.
Fire breaks out at Camp Pendleton base
seattlepi.com - 20 minutes ago
http://www.seattlepi.com/news/us/article/Fire-breaks-out-at-Camp-Pendleton-base-5476345.php
AN DIEGO (AP) — Weather conditions that at least temporarily calmed allowed firefighters to gain ground early Wednesday on a pair of wildfires that forced thousands of residents to leave their homes. But a separate brush fire forced the evacuation of residents and a school on Camp Pendleton Marine Corps base.
Marine Corps officials said Wednesday that the blaze started at about 9:45 a.m. at the Naval Weapons Station in Fallbrook, north of San Diego.
Officials say the fire has spread to more than 100 acres and residents in military housing have been ordered to evacuate.
The biggest fire that broke out yesterday was the Mel Watt announcement of mo credik, mo credik, mo credik. If having Fannie and Freddie loosen up credit at this point doesn’t show everyone here exactly what game is and always will be going on, I don’t know what will. And if it doesn’t turn all non shills here against this administration then I don’t know if anything ever would. Magic Mel’s loosening now can’t be blamed on Bush.
time to suck in some more buyers into overpriced assets ?
Always. It’s always time to suck in more buyers into overpriced assets.”
“…Mel Watt…”
http://picpaste.com/mel_watt.jpg
It is amazing no homes burned in this fire. Of course, had the huge area in the heart of the fire zone that is graded for new home construction already been built out, it could have been another story entirely.
Bernardo Fire Burns 850 Acres, Prompts Evacuations
Cal Fire crews updated damage done by fire as of 6 p.m. at 800 acres
By Christina London and R. Stickney
| Wednesday, May 14, 2014 | Updated 6:17 AM PDT
San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer has declared a local state of emergency after a rapidly spreading brush fire, fueled by dry conditions and high winds, ripped through the city’s North County and prompted evacuations Tuesday.
Large plumes of smoke could be seen over the exclusive community of Santaluz and as far west as Interstate 5 after the Bernardo Fire sparked around 11 a.m. near Black Mountain Road west of Interstate 15.
As of 10 p.m., the fire had scorched 850 acres and sent thousands of families either heading to safer ground or preparing their homes for the possibility of evacuation.
No homes have burned, and fire crews estimate about 5 percent containment.
The borders of the Bernardo Fire stretch from Via de la Valle to the east, Dove Canyon Road to the west, Carmel Valley Road to the north and Camino Del Sur to the south. See map of fire area
…
My cousin lives far enough south of where the fire is.
Years ago a sister of mine lived there in San Diego and she said during the real bad fires she would see ash raining down. They were prepared to evacuate if need be.
I worry about my area. I live along a busy parkway, a main drive east/west straddling I-5. And my area is hilly with lots of green. It just takes one careless smoker or some other idiot and this will be a nightmare.
You’re smart don’t live in the hills around here. And the brush always grows highest on North Facing slopes, 15 feet high of solid chaparral with 60 mile an hour winds 5% humidity you can’t stop it.
Rich folks around here have private fire insurance which has a private fire fighting force to protect there interests.
Looks like California beat us to the punch this year. Maybe if we’re really lucky there won’t be any fires this year on the Front Range.
I wouldn’t expect much after the flooding last fall and the extra snow over the winter. Maybe by the end of summer if it gets hot.
It was bone dry until this past week.
I thought we were over normal on snowpack?
I meant on the Front Range, not in the mountans. Snow pack is good, so there is runoff to fill the reservoirs.
We’re 18% of normal with rainfall. This summer will be brutal
Just accelerates the depreciation of those shacks. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Crawl out of the coffin.
Realtors are liars.
We’re 18% of normal with rainfall. This summer will be brutal
Relax. A freakjobbed planet is the new black. And the far-right tells me we’ve always had a freakjobbed planet, and the fundies tell me that man can’t affect the climate because that would question the omnipotence of God, and God would approve of massive pollution anyway because it puts money in a few people’s pockets and a big part of Jesus’ teachings was that we should strive to be rich because destroying God’s earth to become rich is very Christian.
World begins 2014 with unusual number of extreme weather events
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2014/feb/25/world-2014-extreme-weather-events
….There have been heatwaves in Slovenia and Australia, snow in Vietnam and the return of the polar vortex to North America. Britain has had its wettest winter in 250 years but temperatures in parts of Russia and the Arctic have been 10C above normal. Meanwhile, the southern hemisphere has had the warmest start to a year ever recorded, with millions of people sweltering in Brazilian and southern African cities….
….the first six weeks of 2014 have seen an unusual number of extremes of heat, cold and rain – not just in a few regions as might be expected in any winter, but right the way around the world at the same time, with costly disruptions to transport, power systems and food production.
“Melbourne, Adelaide and Canberra have all had record heatwaves, while temperatures in Moscow were 11C above normal. Germany and Spain were 2C above normal for January and this month has seen so far six major depressions develop over the Atlantic,” said the WMO in its latest assessment of world weather.
“Both equatorial and polar regions have experienced extremes. There has been unusually heavy snowfall; in the southern Alps, monthly temperatures were extremely high; from eastern Mongolia to eastern China and in the southern hemisphere, Australia, Argentina and Brazil have experienced extended heatwaves. The unusually cold weather in the eastern US coincided with severe storms in Europe,”
Islamists and Global Progressive Authoritarians will kill everyone on the planet long before climate change.
One lesson learned over the years of living in near proximity to major wild fires: http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8380#Either get involved in the effort to put’em-out, otherwise don’t ll maxt.
Stopping Keystone Ensures More Railroad Tank-Car Spills - Wall Street Journal
Pipelines in the U.S. carry 25 times more oil than tank cars do, yet derailments are by far the biggest threat.
Whether the president and other politicians or environmentalists like it or not, oil and gas will be moved from remote areas in the north to refineries in the south, east, and west or to overseas terminals. Opponents may take smug satisfaction in raising the cost of energy and discouraging consumption, but their actions are hypocritical when it comes to saving the environment.
Fish, birds, wildlife—and people—beware.
Keystone Pipeline Is D.C.’s Dumbest Debate - The Daily Beast
No issue better captures the dysfunction of Washington than the trumped up debate over the Keystone XL pipeline. Tuesday, the Obama administration released its 3rd National Climate Assessment, with one key message: Climate change is real, here, and only set to intensify. There are many important decisions to be made to tackle this critical challenge, but Keystone XL isn’t one of them. Building the pipeline won’t have a discernable impact on the climate; scrapping Keystone won’t make America measurably less energy independent.
A modest, bipartisan piece of energy legislation—the sort of half-measure that seems to be the hallmark of our dysfunctional Congress—has become the latest battleground in the fight over the Keystone XL pipeline. A new proposed amendment to that energy bill would override the administration’s long-delayed approval process.
Should this political gambit and the massive lobbying and advertising effort behind it succeed (and it’s far from clear that it will), President Obama’s hand will be forced. But true to form in this drawn out debate, what we are witnessing is a lot of politicking over what is fundamentally a non-issue.
From the start, the fight about Keystone XL has been symbolic. As captured by Ryan Lizza in his terrific September 2013 New Yorker article on the topic.
The Keystone Pipeline is about making oil companies wealthier. That’s it. And when little peons like yourself try to sell it to the masses, the beneficiaries sit back and laugh themselves hoarse. Got stupid?
So you think trains and barges are a better way to transport oil? On what do you base this belief?
Or rather, since you can’t rationally deal with the information, do you really need to devolve into personal attacks? You poor unfortunate soul.
It’s you who cannot rationally deal with the truth. This pipeline, aside from creating short-term jobs, is of no benefit to the population as a whole.
Opponents may take smug satisfaction in raising the cost of energy and discouraging consumption
I think they probably should build the Keystone Pipeline. But I also respect facts and fact is, oil is a global market and the Keystone Pipeline wouldn’t do squat to lower the global price of oil. Almost actually a big fat nada.
(Environmentalists) actions are hypocritical when it comes to saving the environment.
There is nothing hypocritical about environmental minded people wanting to conserve energy and/or protect their environment. There are tradeoffs with most every action.
Pipelines in the U.S. carry 25 times more oil than tank cars do,
Which is an indication that the Keystone Pipeline is much adu about nothing.
Rio.
I’m not against conservation. Using semi trucks burns diesel, adds to air pollution and experiences more gallons spilled per gallons transported. The pipeline moves more oil in a safer manner.
BH
If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.
according to the banks you have to borrow from them and pay interest to participate in the american dream.
FBI shooter had stormy record as officer
The Boston FBI agent who fatally shot a Chechen friend of Tamerlan Tsarnaev in Florida last year had a brief and troubled past at the Oakland Police Department in California. In four years, Officer #8313 took the Fifth at a police corruption trial and was the subject of two police brutality lawsuits and four internal affairs investigations. He retired from the department in 2004 at age 31. He retired with a pension of more than $52,000 annually for the rest of his life.
http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/05/13/fbi-shooter-had-stormy-record-officer/7zJ1ha78Z0SpfDey0PBuJJ/story.html
How can you “retire” at 31 and it not raise red flags when you try to go to the FBI? Stuff like this doesn’t happen unless there is a “friend” somewhere pulling for him or greasing the skids. That’s who I’d like to know about.
Gotta love it, instead of spending time in the slammer, he gets cash and prizes, and a new job.
Biden to Putin: Hands off Ukraine, my son needs a gig!
Biden to Obama: Who’s your Cheney?
Not even a smidgen of corruption…
Why were you so quiet when Shrub Jr. and Darth Cheney were starting wars in the interests of no-bid contracts and war profiteering?
I was here, posting under my original moniker of “palmetto”. And I was pretty vocal against shrubby and cheney and others as well. In fact I’d go on a rant and Bill in Carolina (whatever happened to him?) would ask if I was off my meds.
“Why were you so quiet when Shrub Jr. and Darth Cheney were starting wars in the interests of no-bid contracts and war profiteering?”
Game, set, match jose canusi (palmetto)
Russia, China and Iran want to “de-dollarize”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-13/russia-holds-de-dollarization-meeting-china-iran-willing-drop-usd-bilateral-trade
Got cash? er, uh, gold?
They can say that, but when things get scary, everyone rushes to the USD.
The rebellion begins. Police brutality is unacceptable.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-13/rebellion-usa-protesters-attempt-arrest-albuquerque-police-chief
While protests are a good first step, I’d hardly call it a rebellion. Now had an armed contingent stormed APD precincts and detained police officers after a shoot out, that would be a rebellion. What happened at the city council meeting was symbolic. I expect we will hear about these protestors criticized as being bums and needing a shower and a job.
Is it 1914 all over again?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/is-it-1914-all-over-again-we-are-in-danger-of-repeating-the-mistakes-that-started-wwi-says-a-leading-historian-9039184.html
“The only thing people learn from history is people don’t learn from history.”
I found this paragraph to be a bit interesting …
“In the late 1920s, the US drew up plans for a war with the British Empire that would have seen the invasion of Canada, partly because it was assumed conflict would break out as America took over as the world’s main superpower.”
They can’t do that now. Canada would instantly halt all fossil fuel sales to the US, and we’d have scenario which is a cross between WWII and the South Park movie.
What’s interesting is that we still have a pretty large army base called Fort Drum that’s just about a two hour drive from Ottawa.
Tighten your seat belts…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-13/tuesday-hockey-stick-humor
Not to worry, now that the lending spigots are about to open wide in order to flood the housing market with new federally guaranteed mortgages.
Yes, I wonder. Will this be enough? I still think with the investors gone and the prices already too high again that this will be too little too late.
Will fog a mirror credit standards come back? It was all based on fraud last time. Without that fraud there is not enough demand.
It will be interesting to see how low they will push interest rates in a vain attempt to stimulate sales.
I suppose that in a moment of desperation they could bring back fog-a-mirror, NINJA loans.
Why is there no dialogue in Washington about the government’s dominance in the mortgage market? Where is Boehner on this? Oh, it doesn’t fit his soapbox agenda.
Because that’s how both parties like it?
They don’t have to like it specifically to keep their mouths shut abotu it. If you criticize something, you get asked what you are suggesting as an alternative. If that alternative would result in house prices crashing and people with an interest in real estate not crashing are a significant portion of the voters in your district, you keep your mouth shut.
It is too close to an election to piss off the base.
If you criticize something, you get asked what you are suggesting as an alternative.
Yes.
See: Repubs now on the ACA.
This is going to turn into a deathmatch between Mel Watts and Rich Cordray. I’d put my money on Cordray cuz mentor Liz Warren is lining up sponsors.
Another good one from this guy
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogmay14/bad-decisions5-14.html
Higher education is increasingly becoming a parody of itself.
—————
“If Tal Fortgang, the Princeton freshman who refused to check his white privilege, ever wants to go to Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, he’ll have to change his tune significantly — or at least spend some time seriously evaluating it, thanks to a new orientation class requirement.
New York Magazine’s the Cut reports that “in response to growing demand from student activists, administrators committed Friday to adding a class in power and privilege to its orientation program for incoming first-year students.”
http://www.salon.com/2014/05/13/students_at_harvards_kennedy_school_will_now_be_required_to_check_their_privilege/?utm_source=facebook&utm_medium=socialflow
It’s a restricted club Wang, okay, so don’t tell em you’re Jewish.
And people think I’m joking when I talk about the Media/Academia Race Hustlers Industrial Complex™
“eventually led to the course addition (which is so far unnamed). ”
Let’s have a contest to name this course on power and priviledge. “CoExIsT 501?”
I’d call it Ahoy Polloi, Bushwood Country Club and the Snobs against the Slobs. All they need to do is show Caddyshack one time, and the discuss amongst themselves.
How exactly will they “check their priviledge”?
This strikes me the same as those bogus “ethics” classes biz school students have to take. Sure, they take the class, write down what the prof wants to hear on their papers and tests, get the A on their transcript and then it’s corrupt, crony business as usual.
Yeah, I remember that ethics in business school was a big issue around 20 - 25 years ago. A dean of one of the top business schools was asked about that and said that his MBA students were generally in their middle to late twenties which was too late to teach a person ethics.
Reetu Mody, a first year masters student in public policy,’
cool public policy
My mother went to a fancy private school back east I don’t what she learned but she loves to read books and talk about them. that’s cool.
shes got about 5 thousand books fills most of her big ass home.
the school is always getting my mom to send them money tsk tsk
And now I remember the name Mount Holyoke. My mom likes it so I won’t slam it but when you are neither rich nor have any class like me it sure is a freaky place.
They are going to love me if I outlive my mom
Have you been there? What’s so freaky about it?
Higher education is increasingly becoming a parody of itself.
It is, but if you want a job you need that sheepskin, preferably from an elite school. So the farce continues.
Crazy
Pacific Heights property sells 70% over asking
We all know that multiple over-asking offers are the norm in San Francisco these days, but it still came as somewhat of a shock last week when 2514 Gough Street in Pacific Heights sold for $3.4 million—or 70% over its $1.995 million asking price.
http://tinyurl.com/oeumrb2
We should all get together and build a house next door to it on Gough St for $55/sq ft and sell it. We’d make a killing.
lol
Blinded by your empty wallet.
A+ comment, I died laughing.
Most likely SF inspectors would tie the construction up for years and cause all sorts of crazy cost overruns.
Unless, of course, you threw some cash at the right SF politicians.
Threw too much cash at a depreciating asset eh Liberace?
You’ve got pleny of company.
You can no longer trust the liars. Maybe you never could. Ben hit on something yesterday about how all this is the fault of lies, lies and more lies and how everyone in power is good with it and has no problem with the lies. They are all justified as the necessary lie. This is where we end up.
Why would anyone elect Hillary, who is the poster girl of lying? It was most firmly established during Old Bubba’s administration that lies DO NOT MATTER even if you get caught. I did not have sex with that woman. Not a mistake. Not an exaggeration a bald faced lie. And everyone was cool with it.
But she may get elected because there is no reasonable alternative and everyone in the game is a huge liar also. And it ain’t just politicians, the Statists maintain their bureaucracy the same way.
But she may get elected because there is no reasonable alternative
There might be a more likeable/charismatic one, not that it would make any difference.
There are reasonable alternatives. They’re not perfect, but they are much better. Funding a campaign is a barrier for many of the alternatives. For the other alternatives, they might be promised enough that it would make sense to run with Hil or bide their time. Liz Warren is an example. Cory Booker might be Prez someday, but he has 2 decades of time on his hands, no reason to rush. If he really is gay, waiting another round or two makes even more sense. Eventually there will come a day when even guys like Lindsay Graham or Larry Craig could be open about their sexuality.
On the GOP side, just imagine what the primary voters are going to do to anyone who doesn’t adhere to the tea party agenda. And any moderates will have problems fundraising–think of Huntsman last time around. Rove, Adelson, and the Kochs need someone who owes them, otherwise no support and no cash.
So trendy to call her Liz. I prefer Lieawatha.
The tea party is the base. Country club conservatives have been toast recently. They are out.
Rather than listen to anything any politician or anyone else has to say, I choose to look at what is actually happening around me. What I see is an economy which has been goosed to the hilt by cheap Fed money, where special interests and insiders have enjoyed the lion’s share of the spoils, with few crumbs left for the masses. I see unconscionably large asset price bubbles, be they in commodities, art, real estate, stocks, or automobiles. It will end one of two ways: In another spectacular meltdown, or in massive wage inflation. I’m not betting on wages.
The danger with a real meltdown is that the natives could get restless. Of course history shows us the PTB will always assume that the masses will endure one more beating, until they won’t.
The masses will endure another beating- they have no choice and will soldier on- but they will not stand for another bank bailout. There’s no way. I am not shocked by level of stupidity I see in the American public as a whole, because nothing really surprises me anymore, but I’d bet the house that people would start rioting if there was another bank bailout.
The masses will endure another beating- they have no choice and will soldier on- but they will not stand for another bank bailout.
Color me skeptical. I don’t think most of them even know that the banks got a bailout last time.
I don’t think most of them even know that the banks got a bailout last time.
Yes and no. They probably don’t specifically think of this, but they know they are being fed a line of crap about a recovery enough that more money to big banks would not go over well.
“‘When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” - Warren Buffett
A Chinese curse (modified a touch):
“May you live in times of interesting results”.
And … here we are.
The main news in the article I am about to post may be the imbedded figures that show today’s Treasury yield movement. What is driving them into the mat, especially the 3-mo?
P.S. The quote at the end of my post is most likely invalid, as the fellow who penned it seems to miss that the yield curve since 2008 has been in an unusual position — basically pinned to the floor at the short end by quantitative easing — and hence QE3 tapering is a tightening.
Bulletin Early stock-market declines push S&P and Dow off record heights »
The Tell
The Markets News and Analysis Blog
Bear market won’t come until the yield curve says so: Kleintop
May 13, 2014, 1:23 PM ET
Jittery investors who are looking to the indexes for signs of an approaching bear market might do better by focusing their attention elsewhere: on the yield curve. So says Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, who asserts in a note Tuesday that the yield curve has a perfect track record of predicting the top of the stock market over the past 50 years, and it’s not signaling a bear market right now.
The yield curve is another way of describing the difference between short-term Treasury yields and long-term yields. It’s a favorite tool among financial and economics wonks because of what it says about the economy. The widening between the yields of different maturities, known as a steepening curve, often signals a brightening economic outlook. On the contrary, if the curve flattens considerably, the growth outlook tends to be souring.
If the Federal Reserve aggressively hikes its key policy rate, short-term Treasury yields in turn rise swiftly. If short-term yields climb higher than long-term rates, the curve is said to invert. An inverted yield curve is generally a sign that a recession is about to begin, which means that it’s also a predictor of the top of a bull market in equities, says Kleintop.
There are a number of different Treasury maturities one can use to calculate the yield curve, but Kleintop chooses to find the spread between the 3-month T-bill (3_MONTH -28.57%) and the 10-year note (10_YEAR -2.22%). Here’s where that differential has turned negative over the past 50 years, and how it compares with the S&P 500 index (SPX -0.09%):
Writes Kleintop:
…
May 14, 2014, 12:58 p.m. EDT
Stocks are telling you a bear market is coming
Opinion: Expect a choppy, sloppy end to the six-year bull run
By Michael Sincere
MIAMI (MarketWatch) — This is how bear markets begin.
Two months ago, I pointed out that the U.S. stock market had topped out and was going through a churning process.
Since that observation, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA -0.36%) has risen a bit higher but the Nasdaq (COMP -0.20%) and Russell 2000 (RUT -1.00%) indexes have dropped below their 50-day and 100-day moving averages. It’s only a matter of time before the Dow follows.
Bear markets start with a whimper or a bang. When it starts with a bang, the first clue will be a major break in the market that no one can correctly explain. That will eventually be followed by a correction (or crash), and everyone will know that something bad has happened. The indexes will fall by double digits, investors will panic, and stocks get slaughtered.
Investors will be told to stay calm and not sell — but they will when the financial pain gets too great. They are also told that the market always comes back (although not all stocks will). Anxiety turns to fear as the market plunges. After a correction or crash, investors look for scapegoats while commentators ask, “Who could have known?” (Hint: Those willing to act on the clues and indicators were out of the market well before the most damage was done.)
But when a bear market starts with a whimper, it confuses nearly everyone. A meandering, volatile market is frustrating. At first, bulls are hopeful that the market will keep going up, but eventually, the market tops out and retreats.
I call this “death by a thousand pullbacks.” Instead of new highs, the market will make a series of short-lived but painful pullbacks. At first, the buy-on-the-dip investors will enter the market with new orders. As the bear market continues, the buy-on-the-dip strategy will stop working (along with most other long strategies).
…
Squaring the conflicting remarks on housing from Lew and Yellen
May 7, 2014, 3:24 PM ET
Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen meet each week, but that doesn’t mean their messages are always in synch.
Lew raised some eyebrows when he noted, in the opening to a meeting of the Financial Stability Oversight Council, that “the housing market has gained traction since the depths of the financial crisis.”
That seemed odd, given that Yellen only hours earlier had lamented: “Another risk–domestic in origin–is that the recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected rather than resuming its earlier pace of recovery.”
So, who to believe?
Well, both. By every conceivable metric — sales of old and new homes, prices, foreclosures, housing starts — conditions have improved in the housing market when measured from post-recession lows. At the same time, there’s been a clear deterioration in every housing category (but prices) in the first quarter.
This mixed message isn’t an easy one to understand from finance’s two most important public officials, but it’s not necessarily incorrect, either.
– Steve Goldstein
doesn’t mean their messages are always in synch
And it’s by design, people.
Divide and conquer has been replaced by Confuse and conquer.
Confuse, corrupt, conquer, pillage.
‘Anonymous has been targeted by a unit of GCHQ that employs some of the most controversial and radical tactics known to spycraft: “false flag operations”, “honeytraps”, viruses and other attacks, strategies of deception and “info ops to damage reputations”.
‘One PowerPoint slide presented by GCHQ surveillance officials at the 2012 SigDev conference describes two forms of attack: “information ops (influence or disruption)” and “technical disruption”. GCHQ refers to these measures as “Online Covert Action”, which is intended to achieve what the document calls “The 4 Ds: Deny/Disrupt/Degrade/Deceive”.
‘Another slide describes the tactics used to “discredit a target”. These include “set up a honeytrap”, “change their photos on social networking sites”, “write a blog purporting to be one of their victims” and “email/text their colleagues, neighbours, friends, etc”. In accompanying notes, GCHQ explains that the “honeytrap” – an old cold war tactic involving using attractive women to lure male targets into compromising, discrediting situations – has been updated for the digital age: now a target is lured to a compromising site or online encounter. The comment added: “a great option. Very successful when it works.” Similarly, traditional methods of group infiltration are now accomplished online.’
‘Another technique involves stopping “someone from communicating”. To do that, the agency will “bombard their phone with text messages”, “bombard their phone with calls”, “delete their online presence,” and “block up their fax machine”.
‘The document then lays out what it calls the “Disruption Operational Playbook”. This includes “infiltration operation”, “ruse operation”, “false flag operation”, and “sting operation”. It vows a “full roll out” of the disruption programme “by early 2013″ as “150+ staff [are] fully trained”.
‘Under the title Magic Techniques & Experiment, the document references “Legitimisation of violence”, “Constructing experience in mind of targets which should be accepted so they don’t realise”, and “Optimising deception channels”.
‘Under the title Magic Techniques & Experiment, the document references “Legitimisation of violence”, “Constructing experience in mind of targets which should be accepted so they don’t realise”, and “Optimising deception channels”.
Goebbels would have been proud.
In light of the new signals coming out of the government real estate offices (FHA, Fannie, Freddie).
Don’t Restore Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, Says Their Former Regulator
By Nick Timiraos
6:50 pm ET | May 13, 2014
Mel Watt, the new director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, signaled a clear pivot on housing-finance policy in his first public speech Tuesday morning. A few hours later, his predecessor, Edward DeMarco, offered some parting reflections on housing policy at a banking conference in Charlotte, N.C.
Their views couldn’t have been more different.
In his talk, Mr. DeMarco made an impassioned plea to abandon the housing-finance system dominated by Fannie MaeFNMA +3.50% and Freddie MacFMCC +5.12%, the companies he oversaw as the FHFA’s acting director for the past five years. “Rather than striving to preserve a system that failed so spectacularly and in so many ways, we need to find our courage and our creativity to build a new system,” he said in prepared remarks.
Mr. Watt, earlier in the day, said he wanted to broaden the role of Fannie and Freddie and labeled as “irresponsible” any move to wind them down without clear proof that private investors were poised to take their place.
Finally, he warned against calls for the government to help unqualified borrowers buy homes. “A government effort to assist families with limited resources and poor credit history take on increased leverage seems a curious public policy,” he said.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/05/13/dont-restore-fannie-mae-and-freddie-mac-says-their-former-regulator/
On saddling low income people with limited skillsets with debt, and limiting their labor mobility, who benefits? Follow the money. These people are used as pass-through entities to funnel money to the FIRE sector. Government guarantees the profit on the loans, the FIRE infrastructure gets its cut at the point of sale… and the low income type trying to better himself gets put through the wringer. And for what?
It’s an election year. If the free sh*t army isn’t getting their free sh*t, they might revolt.
The only reason that I can tell that there are GSEs still in existence is for political reasons.
Mandate a required down payment for today of 3%. Increase that requirement by 1% every 6 months.
Glide path to getting rid of the GSEs, no cliff, but a ramp down over a period of a couple of decades (by which time the required down payment for a GSE loan would be 40%+, and the GSEs will no longer be competitive),
It’s an election year. If the free sh*t army isn’t getting their free sh*t, they might revolt.
IIRC , a temporary SNAP increase expired. The free sh*t army whined, but there was no revolt.
Obama’s ratings are way down, and the GOP looks to have a successful midterm. The FSA doesn’t seem that happy to me. They need to do something to make them happier.
The FSA gets screwed in midterms then big promises are made during presidential election years.
Also - I don’t think this is about the typical FSA rabble. Homebuyers are pass-through entities through which money is funneled to the FIRE sector from the government. This is about maximizing the amount of government-guaranteed debt the homebuyer can take on. This strikes me as more of a FIRE sector enrichment program.
But of course… based on the bailouts and the myriad forms of government support, a case could be made that the FIRE sector is the biggest regiment the FSA.
In light of the new signals coming from the government real estate agencies, I was thinking of the leaders of various captured agencies and the conversations they’re having with industry insiders. The Pink Floyd song, “Have A Cigar” came to mind. “We’re going to tell you the name of the game - let’s pull together as a team, and you can ride the gravy train”:
“Have A Cigar”
by Pink Floyd
“Come in here, dear boy, have a cigar, you’re gonna go far
You’re gonna fly high, you’re never gonna die
You’re gonna make it if you try, they’re gonna love you
Well, I’ve always had a deep respect, and I mean that most sincerely
The band is just fantastic, that is really what I think
Oh, by the way - which one’s Pink?
And did we tell you the name of the game, boy?
We call it “Riding the Gravy Train”
We’re just knocked out, we heard about the sell out
You gotta get an album out, you owe it to the people
We’re so happy we can hardly count
Everybody else is just green, have you seen the chart?
It’s a hell of a start, it could be made into a monster
If we all pull together as a team
And did we tell you the name of the game, boy?
We call it “Riding the Gravy Train”
http://lyrics.wikia.com/Pink_Floyd:Have_A_Cigar
+10 for a Pink Floyd reference.
I’m surprised you didn’t bust out with one of the songs from Animals.
“Big man, pig man, ha ha, charade you are
You well heeled big wheel, ha ha, charade you are
And when your hand is on your heart
You’re nearly a good laugh
Almost a joker
With your head down in the pig bin
Saying “keep on digging”
Pig stain on your fat chin
What do you hope to find?
When you’re down in the pig mine
You’re nearly a laugh
You’re nearly a laugh
But you’re really a cry.”
That looks like a rip-off of Piggies by The Beatles.
Animals (like most P. Floyd) is definitely intended to be listened to as a whole album, not one song at a time (or one verse at a time). Given that’s the context in which I typically have listened to these lyrics, I’ve never made a connection to Piggies…
The same can be said of Yes, Genesis, King Crimson, and the other 1970s art rock groups. Their music didn’t work as singles. They were album rockers.
Well… I don’t want to necessarily attack them by calling them pig men. It seems to me the system has incrementally warped over the years to what it is today. I imagine Mel Watt and Shaun Donovan in a room with some top FIRE lobbyists, being told if they play ball, they can ride the gravy train after their term is complete. All in perfectly legal terms of course
I think a lot of regulatory leaders are informed of this.
Rental Watch:
I watched the Dalio piece (“How the economic machine works”). Thanks for the pointer. I did come away with some new data as a result of critically considering it.
The basic question - “Is it true?” - I dunno. It’s plausible - thought-provoking - but one would have to take household debt (not just government debt as that always grows in absolute terms), overlay that with the list of recessions and unemployment to determine its veracity. Dalio’s chart in the video at 16:38 looks like it includes total US debt instead of just household debt. If the DTI ratio history is true, it suggests something else is going on. Some links:
1) List of recessions: http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html
2) Household debt-to-income ratio since 1950: http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2011/january/consumers-economy-household-debt-weak-us-recovery/
3) Unemployment rate since 1950: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/business/us-unemployment-rate-history/
I’d like to find a household debt chart going back as far as they have data, and seeing that inflation adjusted. Debt To Income ratio is an informative proxy, but seeing absolute and inflation-adjusted debt loads would be useful too.
Is Dalio’s basic thesis correct - that debt goes up in economic expansions, drops in recessions, but bottoms out at a higher level than the previous cycle. Ultimately building up till there is a huge debt overhang which causes a massive deleveraging event which then can cause a depression. And if handled poorly, can lead to social unrest. To determine the truth of it would not be difficult.
The piece is definitely an apology for QE. QE has doubtless done very well for Dalio and other big players. It’s bailed out their mistakes, under cover of trickle-down and helping the public.
As a side note, with the new signals about retaining the current government-based mortgage finance system, it’s an example that very little has changed. I understand the reluctance of politicians and big donors to change - politicians keep getting re-elected and big donors keep getting and contributing money - so there’s little impetus to do any other than make speeches about the situation.
Going forward? I think they’ll stick with the current system until it breaks. If it breaks, what are the failure modes? If it succeeds, what does that look like?
As far as policy maker motivations go, it’s good to remember Thomas Sowell’s observation: “No one will really understand politics until they understand that politicians are not trying to solve our problems. They are trying to solve their own problems - of which getting elected and re-elected are number and number two. Whatever is number three is far behind.”
What I like about the Dalio piece is that there is a simplicity and elegance to it that doesn’t try to cover up what is the basis of our economy…that the players in the economy act in what they perceive to be their own best interest.
The other metric to look at is the household debt service and financial obligation ratios (people’s ability to service their debt)…the DTI ratio is limited in that it doesn’t take into consideration interest rates (which in part are affected by external factors).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/housedebt/
You can certainly see that times with highest debt burdens seems to foretell problems on their way (ie. lower ability for households to borrow more and more, thus decreasing economic activity, etc.).
All that said, I think Dalio’s view of the world is certainly something that can’t be dismissed out of hand–and may very well be the best way to think about the economy.
With regard to Sowell, we had an adviser at one point who noted quite simply that politicians’ most important advisers are people who help them get re-elected, NOT people who are hired to help them govern. That pretty much says it all.
RE: the Federal Reserve Debt Service Ratio (DSR) link - I was a bit hesitant to include that because DSR is a bit of a murky indicator IMO. From the Bulletin Article, linked in the upper left of the page, I was able to find out exactly what DSR was:
“Interpretation of the DSR and these revisions is subject to several caveats. First, the DSR is a ratio of minimum debt payments, not total debt, to income. Required monthly payments can differ on loans of the same dollar amount because of differences in maturities and interest rates. Second, the measure is a ratio of two aggregate numbers. This measure expresses the debt service obligations of the population as a whole but not necessarily the obligations of the typical household.”
Straight up measures of household debt would be quite interesting.
Also, another DTI ratio source would be interesting as well.
The reason I include it is not to measure the amount of debt, but in the context of the feedback loops in place that affect the economy.
If you have high levels of debt, but low interest rates/easy payment terms, that will have less of an impact on spending than low levels of debt, but with high interest rates, and massive amortization.
Neuromance: Going forward? I think they’ll stick with the current system until it breaks. If it breaks, what are the failure modes? If it succeeds, what does that look like?
Also note - this could be a political breakage in addition to a financial one. Note that in Britain, in a Ipsos MORI poll last year, 57% of respondents disagreed with the statement that “Rising house prices are a good thing for Britain.” Only 37% agreed.
Of course, many people have no idea about the link between politicians, the government and house prices. Financially, I think the government can keep this up for some time. We’re running trillion dollar deficits, and the central bank is printing up money to inject into the real estate market and to monetize government debt. However, inflation could become unmuted which could then force a limitation on these house-price supports.
What I think is relatively certain is that continuing to attempt to push debt on the American public will lead to continued economic stagnation going forward. And this is completely without any attempt on Congress’ part to create incentives to encourage greater job growth and employment here. They instead have audiences with their big donors, the ones who wish to offshore/import labor and production.
We really need to find a way to better identify the accelerating housing decline. Falling demand, falling homeownership rate, inflated but falling prices are all great fundamental metrics etc
How about a broad index? Something like the Emerging Housing Crater Index.
Housing Wealth Inequality:
34 years of public policies that worship and mollycoddle only the rich is turning America into a Banana (fake) Republic.
U.S. Housing Markets Face Growing Wealth Inequality
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/02/26/u-s-housing-markets-faces-growing-wealth-inequality/
Home prices will rise between 2.1% annually between 2015 and 2018, according to a new report released Wednesday, but those gains mask major differences between the pace of recovery from one community to the next.
The report, published by the Demand Institute, a subsidiary of the Conference Board, conducted a detailed look at 2,200 of the nation’s largest cities and towns and surveyed 10,000 households about their housing situation.
The report found that among those 2,200 cities and towns, the wealthiest 10% accounted for 52% of the country’s total housing wealth, while the poorest 40% held just 8% of all housing wealth. Since 2000, the value of housing for the top decile rose 73% — or by around $2 trillion in nominal dollars — while the bottom 40% of the market rose by 59%, or just $260 billion.
The median forecast of 2.1% annual price growth will mark a slowdown from the sharp price gains of the past two years as investors retreat from scooping up bargain-priced foreclosures. Weak household income growth and more sales by traditional sellers who eventually list their homes for sale should curb price gains, researchers wrote.
The projected gains will put national median prices near its nominal 2006 peak, though after adjusting for expected inflation rates, median home prices will still stand 25% below their 2006 level.
But the recovery “masks wide local discrepancies, with some markets soaring ahead and others still very much distressed,
And from the UK: (But what’s this “society” thing of which she speaks?)
Rising house prices worsen the wealth gap between rich and poor
Increases in property prices are not good for society, yet government continues to inflate the housing bubble
http://www.theguardian.com/housing-network/housing-network-blog
Our housing crisis is often described as a complicated picture, a vice of conflicting pressures. But this week’s news demonstrates how, at it’s heart, it is very simple: it is a crisis of supply and demand, and of the widening gap between the haves and have nots.
Commentators are split: the rise in prices is either early evidence of a recovering economy, or the first sign of a new government-sponsored housing bubble that will burst with devastating repercussions. Both camps are right.
……It’s true that the sudden escalation in house prices coincides with government efforts to artificially stimulate the private housing market. The Help to Buy scheme, which was launched earlier this year, provides an equity loan of 20% of a property up to the value of £600,000 to help buyers take their first step on the housing ladder. It has been perhaps more popular than even the government itself expected.
How about a picture of your Brazilian slum Lola.
Jeb Bush “talks” housing. But doesn’t really say much. Perfect politics. He also implied Obama wasn’t doing enough to help housing in 2012. I wonder what he says now.
“Stronger committed families and immigration reform will help improve America’s housing market.” Jeb Bush
So They Say: Jeb Bush Talks Housing Market … And Running for President
http://commercialobserver.com/2014/05/so-they-say-jeb-bush-talks-housing-market-and-running-for-president/
Jeb Bush—August 2012 speech at the Republican National Convention in Tampa Bay, Fla.
“The problem that got us into this mess was the real estate problem, but there is very little going on to solve the real estate problems. Who better to advocate a policy to get us out of this mess? Why not defend your positions in the marketplace of ideas? Business has gotten way too timid. The natural inclination is to cower. I would encourage you to stand up.”
7 places where home prices are falling
Home buyers have an edge in these markets
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/7-places-where-property-prices-are-falling-2014-05-13
The recovery in the U.S. property market has proved to be choppy. National home prices still haven’t returned to 2005 levels, according to David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices, who cites both new and existing home sales. “Many people predicted a huge surge in 2014, and we’re not quite seeing that,” says Don Frommeyer, president of the Association of Mortgage Professionals. Mortgage rates are up about a percentage point from last year, home prices are rising, housing inventory is low and the economy is still shaky, he says.
Oklahoma City, Okla.
Jacksonville, Fla.
Tulsa, Okla.
Greensboro-High Point, N.C.
Lancaster, Pa.
Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa.
Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, Va.
Also see:
43% of 2014 home buyers paid all cash
Is it better to remodel or buy a bigger home?
Financial secrets of the Amish
Housing Market Facing Headwinds
Financialbuzz.com-13 hours ago
Real Estate, Investment, Housing Market The rebound in housing is fast fading, and it could be a while before the housing sector gets a …
Why the housing market is suddenly struggling
Yahoo Finance (blog)-by Rick Newman-May 7, 2014
For most of 2013, it looked as if a robust housing recovery was underway. Since housing is a huge part of the overall economy, that bred hope …
Report: Las Vegas housing market ’stuck in neutral’
VEGAS INC-21 hours ago
Report: Las Vegas housing market ’stuck in neutral’ … Las Vegas’ new-home market continues to slump this year, with sharp drops in sales and …
The Housing Rebound Stalls
Businessweek-May 1, 2014
After a decade of boom-bust-boom, the U.S. housing market is going downhill just when many economists thought it would be heading upward.
From:
Marketwatch May 12 2014, Amy Hoak’s Home Economics
Why millennials are hurting the real estate recovery
4 reasons young Americans are staying out of the housing market
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
First-time home buyers haven’t been much help in the housing recovery, but it isn’t because young adults stopped aspiring to become homeowners.
“Though they see a tough road to affording Homeownership, younger renters [those between the ages of 18 and 39] still are very likely to say that it’s in their future plans,” wrote Sarah Shahdad, strategic planning analyst with Fannie Mae, commenting recently on Fannie Mae’s National Housing Survey. “The vast majority still plan to own someday; about half plan to buy a home the next time they move.”
It’s just that, right now, economic realities and life decisions are getting in the way. And those obstacles have repercussions for the broader housing market, because the absence of young buyers is one big reason why the housing recovery hasn’t been stronger.
… Lack of savings, less-than-perfect credit and stifling loads of student-loan debt are continuing to hold young adults back from Homeownership, Shahdad and others say. Societal trends also play a role in why they’re not buying, as people are waiting longer to get married and have children—life events that tend to spur home purchases.
For now, the absence of young adults from the housing market continues to put a dent in the homeownership rate, which dropped to 64.8% in the first quarter, compared with 65.2% in the fourth quarter of 2013,
Has nothing to do with prices. Just the deadbeat young.
What will happen when granny needs to downsize?
The kids will take care of granny until she kicks the bucket, inherit the house and keep it.
There’s a millenial couple down the street. I can’t help thinking that her family helped her purchase her house. Not that she’s a slacker or anything. Quite the opposite. Ditto for her husband. Another hard worker.
Both are 30 years old and are VERY happily married. It’s a real joy to be around such a compatible couple.
“I can’t help thinking that her family helped her purchase her house.”
Seem too happy to be upside-down?
Cute. I remember when I bought my first (which was also last, and which is ex) house at age 31. Same giddy dreams they must be having. But the difference is that they are in a far better place than I was. They will probably keep their place for many years.
Screen-Name Modernization Act
It must have felt wierd for months, your mind saying you are an uncle. No?
It’s quite a bubble but if you buy or build for CASH (not a check), You can save about 10-15%. Why? I think we all know why.
Brazil property prices: Fears of ‘bubble’ in home costs
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-27218510
In the first of a two-part look at Brazil’s housing market, we examine how Rio de Janeiro has become the country’s prime property hotspot.
….both Brazilians and foreigners who are cashing in on a city (Rio de Janeiro) in the international spotlight.
“Everyone keeps talking about a bubble but people will keep buying in Brazil even if the prices are high,” she says, adding that more and more businesses are moving to Rio.
“People see this as an opportunity to get a good return on their investment.”
….property prices in Rio have risen more than 250% in the past six years. In nearby Sao Paulo, they have climbed 200%.
Open any newspaper here in Brazil and you are bombarded with adverts trying to sell the latest new launch of apartment blocks. There is even a bottle of whisky on offer from one company trying to tempt potential buyers to a new development.
…Robert Shiller, the man who predicted the collapse of the US market, recently warned Brazil was facing a housing bubble of its own.
But it is a controversial subject here. “He was wrong,” says Mailson da Nobrega, a former finance minister and founder of Tendencias economic consultancy in Sao Paulo.
“It’s not a classic bubble that was inflated through credit. Credit isn’t the source of house price increases in Brazil - it’s an imbalance between demand and supply.”
Mortgage lending has certainly become easier in recent years - financing for homes in Brazil rose 32% last year, climbing to a record high of 109.2bn reais (£29bn; $49bn) according to ABECIP, which represents the country’s mortgage lenders.
…Most economists agree Brazilians are buying their homes to live in, not to make a quick profit.
If you look at the percentage of mortgage lending as a proportion of the economy, the figures for Brazil are still low - less than 10%.
Compared with Chile at about 20% and the US at about 70%, Brazil still has a long way to go to catch up.
“It’s a psychological bubble,” says economist Luis Vivanco. “Brazilians have this mentality that by buying a property, they have more security than putting money in a bank. People feel richer.”
“the percentage of mortgage lending as a proportion of the economy…the US at about 70%…”
LOL.
Hey Rental Watch. Hi,
From the article I posted on the Rio de Janeiro housing market: How do these rent vs buy numbers look to you? (I know American ratios don’t exactly apply to Brazil but this is one peculiar country.)
“This (Rio) view could be yours too - for a princely sum of $3m (£1.8m). Or if the budget does not stretch, it is rented for $15,000 (£8,900) a month.”
Brazil’s benchmark interest rate is up to about 11%. Mortgages are 15-20 years with at least 20% down and most people own outright.
If you are looking at it strictly from an investment standpoint?
Renting is far better.
$15k per month is $180k per year, which is a 6% return on cost..HOWEVER, that’s without factoring in ANY cost of ownership.
I have no idea what that cost is in Rio (taxes, insurance, upkeep, etc.), but 40% of rents wouldn’t be an outlandish percentage here.
Take 40% off, and you are at a mid 3% return on investment.
Again, I’m not even considering the interest rate…I’m looking at what an unleveraged return on investment would be, and 3.5% is too low. 6% is too low.
Now, if you were telling me that inflation was running at 10% per year, and expected to run at 10% per year for the foreseeable future, you might consider buying the property for an inflation hedge as much as cash flow. However, if there was that kind of inflation, you should be able to get a better return on your investment by purchasing commercial property.
But as a cash-flow investment in a relatively stable political/inflation environment, it’s way too expensive to purchase.
There is no inflation.
100 year flood here overnight. Plenty of houses obviously underwater! Open house today means something different.
Amy: “Mr. Banker, will you tell me a joke?”
Me: “I’m sorry, hon, humor is not one of my strong suits.”
Amy: “Please? Pretty please? The real estate market really sucks and I need some cheering up.”
Me: “Okay. Do you want a long, elaborate drawn-out joke or would like it short?”
Amy: “Short”.
Me: “A gut buster or just a chuckle?”
Amy: “A really big gut buster.”
Me: “Okay, I will tell you a gut buster of a joke with just one word. Are you ready?
Amy: “Yes!”
Me: “Okay, here goes…”
(deep breath)
(exhale)
(really deep breath)
(and out it comes …)
BITCOINS!
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg180ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv
Look at the volume in December and compare this volume with the more recent volume.
Bahahahahahahahahahahaha
Do any of you proles remember all the hype bitcoins were getting just few months ago? Yes? Well, just where did all that hype go?
Gone with the wind. Gone, along with lots and lots of dollars.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
Come on by and see me and we’ll maybe talk over a way you can, perhaps, replace a few of those lost dollars of yours.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
crypto currency will not die. Bitcoin may die. But who cares?
Just an ot comment. I think Carl Sagan would be proud of the new Cosmos series. It’s not my “bag” and I am hooked. I’ve been watching it on HULU, getting caught up.
“Billions and billions of …”
“No, make that trillions and trillions of …”
“Dollars!”
“Trillions and trillions of dollars, all destined to go ‘pooooooof’.”
I remember one “Omni” magazine cartoon. Its caption was “billions and billions of Carl Sagans.” and the cartoon showed a bazillion black-haired turtleneck-wearing skinny white dudes, hair parted on same side…
Hilarious. I tried googling it and could not find it.
Bill
Now that’s funny. LOL
Wasn’t Carl Sagan that butthead astronomer guy??
Everyone Must Check In
Voluntaryists don’t check in.
Bill in L.A.’s rules include this gem:
Never ever tell a sibling or friend or acquaintance what your net worth is or how much money you make (anonymous strangers where they cannot trace your address, probably no big deal). And live in a place that is only large enough for you and your family to live in (if you have a family - otherwise just you).
It’s a long story and I think I posted before so I will avoid repeating the motivation for the rule.
I am happy to say I followed this rule. It was not learned by consequences, but by observation of others.
Living below your means wills set you free!
“Living below your means wills set you free!”
And living beyond your means will set your banker free!
True man! Sorry but I don’t donate to the banker cause though!
“Sorry but I don’t donate to the banker cause though!”
No matter, there are enough of “the others” to ease my way through life.
P.T. Barnum says the birth rate of these life-easers is one a minute. I think he is off by a factor of ten or so.
Amy: “So what should I tell my clients when they balk at the word “adjustable” written on the loan documents that you and I need them to sign?”
Me: “Tell them that if the newly adjusted interest rate ever moves the monthly payment up to a point that is beyond their ability to pay that they can always come to me and I will gladly refinance the mortgage into something they can handle.”
Amy: “Is that true?”
Me: “Of course it’s true! You don’t think I would blatantly lie to one of my customers, do you?”