I have been a constant reader of this blog for what must be 10+ years at this point, a housing Bear since 2003 when I realized that it didn’t make any sense that no matter who I talked to, no matter where they lived their house was increasing in value, I searched the Web for the answer and stumbled into the HBB which spelled it all out for me and was always a great read. Thank you
Main argument, Housing Analyst, what do you bring to the discussion? Imagine how legitimate yours posts would be if you began your diatribe here prior to the first crash, to pick up the reigns after the first crash and then preaching to people on a HOUSING BUBBLE Site, an audience of the true believers, who came to the crazy overpriced housing rationale way before you started posting, and way before the ship hit the iceberg, people only come here as it is one of the only place to get some validation on a concept which you must be 8 years behind on, your screed is completely useless, grating and completely after the fact.
Housing will crash again soon, I have no doubt and it will scorch the earth this time as it is global in scale, maybe you can tell us to avoid Spanish seaside vacation condos after that or some other obvious point
HA had other screen names prior to being HA, so he’s not really behind the times. But really, how hard was it to see the 2008 crash coming. Looking ahead is more of a question mark.
HA’s true crazy didn’t really start until a couple years ago when a few people here finally pulled the trigger (eastcoaster, SFhomowner), etc. That’s when you started addressing us as “realtor,” to the point where we actually had to confirm that we weren’t realtors.
the housing rebound was not kind to many posters pushed them over the edge
We at the FED want every American ( and Chinese ) to know that our policy is a strong dollar policy and treasuries are and have always been a great investment.
“We at the FED want every American ( and Chinese ) to know that our policy is a strong dollar policy and treasuries are and have always been a great investment.”
sfhomeowner
It’s nice to have a home and watch those with a psychotic proclivity attack us for getting in during an entry point. We have seen our floor plan fetch $525K, up almost $150K in 18 months. It’s insane, but true, and with our cement pond, we’d fetch more. Not interested in selling, but we had an entry point as well. Happy as clams. The pool has kept us cool in this So Ca heat wave.
A friend of mine has been looking in SF to buy a house for the past few years. He has now given up, and will wait for the next cycle.
The last house he looked at, which hadn’t been renovated in many decades (and would require going to the studs to make it into what he wanted), ultimately sold for 30% over asking price, for more than $800 per foot.
If it is so obvious then why all the shills on here lying and pimping day after day? HA is a rock, Gibraltar. Shills don’t like being between a rock and a hard place (except Lola).
If you are a shill/pimp go home, your pimp hand is weak. If not, study on why you are complaining about one person when the entire god darned media is shilling for the REIC pimps.
It was easier to see in 2008 for many since the downturn had begun. More difficult in 2005 at the top. Then some of us who are good see-ers were glad to buy at 2004 prices. LOL, hard to see where that is going!
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Comment by cactus
2014-05-16 11:31:00
It was easier to see in 2008 for many since the downturn had begun. More difficult in 2005 at the top. Then some of us who are good see-ers were glad to buy at 2004 prices. LOL, hard to see where that is going!”
Deep down, the financiers and traders knew it was a bubble. Just like they knew dot-com was a bubble. But they had to doublethink that it wasn’t a bubble in order to squeeze out just a little more profit before the sh!thouse went up in flames, so to speak.
There is the famous quote “I got rich by selling too soon.” Those traders get fired by selling too soon. And the media would get their ads canceled if they told people to sell too soon.
“By the way Brandon…. the most accurate metric to use is construction cost /sq ft. Stick with $45/sq ft(structure only) and then reduce based on age and condition of structure. An SFR in average condition without a bunch of gingerbread is roughly two-thirds the construction cost. Add in lot cost(remember, it’s just dirt) and external structures like outbuildings, garages, pools(depreciate them by one-third) and you’ll get to the actual price it’s worth.”
Most useful housing-related post on the HBB in a long time right here. This should be added to the HBB favorites.
It’s only “worth” that while building materials are in a bubble, interest rates are near zero, the Fed pays banks to keep foreclosures and defaults in the dark, practically any fool can borrow six times their yearly income to buy it with a government guarantee and China pours more concrete in two years than the US did in a century.
The most important quality a Realtor needs is a sociopathic lack of empathy. It’s much easier to sleep at night after you pocket the commish *CHA CHING* setting some poor family of schmucks on the path to financial ruin. Its always a good time to buy or sell a house… for the bed bug that is.
It amazes me how people treat them as professionals. Talk about the Devil convincing the world he doesn’t exist…
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-16 06:05:52
‘treat them as professionals’
they like to present the image of having education and professional accreditation like an attorney or certified public accountant, when in reality they couldn’t make it past the first chapter of ‘economics for dummies’.
Comment by MrsLolaSoros
2014-05-16 06:25:32
No schooling necessary beyond the drivers test equivalent to get the license. How are they able to maintain the lock on the market in these days of zillow, movoto etc. It is because their tendrils run super deep into the political machine.
They need to be Travelocitied, but travel agents never had the juice and connections the developer shill crowd does.
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-16 06:31:53
“never had the juice”
The real estate “industry” has the juice, so much juice they donated $153 million in the 2012 election cycle:
“It amazes me how people treat them as professionals.”
From a post here a week or so ago I learned that at cocktail parties (some of them) realtors are treated as celebrities.
Comment by Jokes on you
2014-05-16 07:56:28
I have never dealt with a realtor as I never purchased, but what exactly is involved in becoming a realtor? I’d imagine nary a college degree, right?
*Disclaimer-1. Yes, I am too lazy to Google this 2. I have a feeling the responses to this will be amusing.
Comment by ibbots
2014-05-16 09:30:42
Realtors are licensed on a state by state basis. Most states require some minimal level of class room hours (like 80 hours) and then to pass an exam. It is a very low barrier to entry profession which is why there are so many flakes in the business.
Realtors are an 80/20 profession, i.e. 20% of the realtors do 80% of the business. The other 80% of realtors fight over the scraps.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-16 09:34:55
Just like lawyers
Comment by aNYCdj
2014-05-16 19:12:24
treat them as professionals’
I remember some states you didn’t even need a HS diploma, just pass the RE exam..
My cats get their teeth brush. They make tiny toothbrushes now, and enzymatic cat/dog toothpaste in meat flavors. If you start them as tykes, then they like it.
“I find it interesting that the biggest housing supporter of them all, the National Association of Realtors is also somewhat tepid on this recovery. Why? Because home sales volume is pathetic. Keep in mind they make money on selling and buying. Volume is key. Their model doesn’t work so well with banks holding onto properties like Gollum holding onto the ring and the foreclosure process being dragged out like the forever college student enjoying year 10 at Santa Monica City College. You see this overarching trend occurring in many metro areas across the country. Investors have been propping up the market since 2008. They are now slowly pulling back.”
I like the use of the term “house horny” in the article. Never heard that one before.
“…banks holding onto properties like Gollum holding onto the ring…”
I don’t see anything changing. There are houses which have been sitting empty for well over 5 years, neither for sale no rent. Who’s to say they won’t sit empty for another 5 or 10? The Fed can carry these things Ad infinitum. That’s the beauty of the Fed, right? They can simply take all houses off the banks’ books and hold them forever, to permanently distort the market. The Fed is omnipotent.
wall street journal - real estate rebound in asheville
‘families are drawn to asheville, nc for its small-town feel, good schools and great outdoors. young hipsters (who have trust funds, because there are no jobs there) come for the eclectic vibe, craft breweries and lively music scene.
but the good life comes at a price. for houses priced above $500,000, 2013 was the strongest year since 2007 … in the first four months of this year, the average asking price rose to $459,500 from $409,400 in the year-ago period.
boosting asheville’s appeal are its distinctly different neighborhoods. young, progressive residents (PUKE) flock to the burgeoning river arts district, with its vibrant arts scene. the cool crowd (who still live off of mommy and daddy, because there are no jobs) also likes west asheville, a funky area across the french broad river that has tattoo parlors (because nothing communicates your special snowflake individuality better than being inked up just like everybody else), bike shops and creative eateries.
‘it will bring in jobs, it will bring in tourists and it will bring in money,’ said mike miller, co-owner of town and mountain realty (PUKE). at the same time, he is concerned that asheville will be ‘loved to death,’ as he said, with new arrivals driving up property prices and causing future home buyers to look elsewhere.’
i know some people who went to warren wilson college and tried to stay in asheville after college, the best jobs they could get were as bartenders. and there is alot of cocaine and heroin in the trust fund crowd
‘‘families are drawn to asheville, nc for its small-town feel’
I lived there years ago, when it was still a bit sleepy and unexploited to its fullest. Finding a job and apartment were challenges. The only way I’d try to move back is if I had a million dollars ..harumph…and the desire to try and fit in with the demos there, which I don’t anymore. Too much granola crunch, not enough cosmopolitan aspects really. Area depends greatly on tourists and retirees IMHO.
It does. Also, better outdoor amenities IMHO. Ideally, my line of thinking would be to live and work in some very affordable mid western city and bank money and take your vacations in those utopia urbs. I mean, part of the thrill of getting to Yosemite and hiking is that I do not go there every weekend if I lived in a nearby city. The pain and pleasure principle. I look forward to the trip and hike. Personally, I think real estate is a peer pressure thing to a degree too. OK, when I was college age and hated living under my father’s roof, getting my own place was imperative. Now, I just wonder if having a house that can have a lien on it or forfeiture, etc, is worth the idea of nesting and being able to have friends impressed and others over to enjoy the square footage is where it is at. I ‘ve said that probably the more efficient use of money is to have a nice car and make the status quo cut at work and come home to an apartment and save your money while you plan to move to a better paying job somewhere else.
In 2004, Ralph Nader attended a meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, at which Nader clashed with members of the caucus over his presidential bid. After the meeting, Nader alleged that Watt twice uttered an “obscene racial epithet” towards him. It was alleged that Watt said: “You’re just another arrogant white man — telling us what we can do — it’s all about your ego — another fucking arrogant white man.” Although Nader wrote a letter to the Caucus and to Watt asking for an apology, none was offered.[19]
What is the point of posting a link to a photograph of the guy?
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-16 11:41:25
He looks like he has white genes too.
Comment by DonSterlin'
2014-05-16 13:03:13
He looks like he has white genes too.
Next president?
Comment by MightyMike
2014-05-16 13:06:27
I’d like to hear the answer from rms. It reminds of the time that Rush Limbaugh briefly had a TV show. Sometimes when he would rant and rave about one of his liberal villains he would display a still photograph of the person for the audience. As with this case, I wasn’t sure what the point was. Perhaps it intensified the feelings of anger and hatred in the audience, making it more pleasurable for them.
Comment by rms
2014-05-16 17:03:02
“I’d like to hear the answer from rms.”
I thought I’d add a face to the name since you never know who might stumble onto the HBB today for the first time. Have to admit though that he does appear short on bling; needs an chunky NBA style necklace or a gold dental crown w/diamond.
Comment by MightyMike
2014-05-16 17:13:07
Gee, I can’t see why you expect to bling on a bureaucrat or think that that would be an improvement.
Comment by MrsLolaSoros
2014-05-16 18:16:53
Black, white, green or blue he’s a scumbag and a crook. Bagman for the boys.
Comment by reedalberger
2014-05-16 23:53:56
“What is the point of posting a link to a photograph of the guy?”
He/She is obviously a racist for posting the photo. Time to send in the brown shirts and take away rms’s livelihood.
“Regardless of one’s position on the larger immigration reform question, it’s incredibly alarming that tens of thousands of convicted criminal aliens — including hundreds of murderers, kidnappers, and rapists — who were processed for deportation are being freed into our communities by the Obama administration,” Reps. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and Lamar Smith (R-Texas), the chairman and former chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, respectively, said this week in a statement.”
So when you wake up to find your formerly middle class neighborhood now feels more like a peasant village in Guatemala, be sure to remember it was a “bipartisan” achievement
Notice Sal Russo is not running for any office. Looks like he’s been coopted, but the tea party voters won’t go for candidates pushing shamnesty. And those voters are the only ones standing in the way.
It may not meet the technical definition of “inflation” as defined by economists, but the living conditions experienced by the majority of Americans in the past decade are stagflation.
If you’re not a 1%er, you’re living in a stagflationary depression.
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Comment by MightyMike
2014-05-16 09:34:36
I thought that you had so much money that you didn’t know what to do with it.
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-16 09:42:06
As a renter, I most certainly do.
But that doesn’t mean I enjoy paying higher prices for food, energy, health insurance.
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-05-16 10:33:15
“It may not meet the technical definition…”
If you just want to complain about your hopeless situation, then it makes no difference. If you are solution minded, then try to identify the cause.
There is an entirely different strategy to take against inflation vs. against manipulation.
We’ll have some problem of some sort “into the fall”. At least this doom and gloom prediction has a date on it. So we can all get back together in a few months and see if it pans out.
‘consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in may, as consumers worried about stagnant wage growth, according to a survey released friday.
the preliminary may reading of the university of michigan and thomson reuters consumer sentiment index slumped to a reading of 81.8, down from 84.1 in april.
economists polled by marketwatch expected a 85.0 reading.’
My intent in promoting this Rule is to open the eyes of young men who are already predisposed to devaluing themselves and placing women as the goal of their lives rather than seeing themselves as the PRIZE to be sought after.
When will narcissistic males stop posting this drivel ad nauseum on the internet? I have explained this to you already. The female, as the child bearer, is the one who takes the greatest risk in a relationship. This is generational risk and, by extension, species risk. That is why females have a higher standard for sexual selection. If you are so egotistical as to think that females should be chasing after you, then you will not find much success. Biology already cleaned that clock.
‘Documents released alongside security journalist Glenn Greenwald’s new book, “No Place To Hide,” reveal the NSA and FBI partnership, in which the two agencies developed techniques for exploiting Facebook chats, capturing private photos, collecting IP addresses, and gathering private profile data.’
‘According to the slides below, the agencies’ goal for such collection was to capture “a very rich source of information on targets,” including “personal details, ‘pattern of life,’ connections to associates, [and] media.”
‘The report states that the NSA also “disguises itself as a fake Facebook server” to perform “man-in-the-middle” and “man-on-the-side” attacks and spread malware.’
‘As we wrote at the time, the “NSA’s Facebook targeting is reportedly a response to the declining success of other malware injection techniques. Previous techniques included the use of “spam emails that trick targets into clicking a malicious link.”
‘Following the report, released in March, Zuckerberg said, “When our engineers work tirelessly to improve security, we imagine we’re protecting you against criminals, not our own government.”
And of course, when caught committing these crimes, the government immediately ceased these rogue operations. Wait, are you telling me they continue to this day and no one was held to account? Do they really expect us to believe that terrorists are using facebook?
More in your face criminality from the federal government.
I do not believe that Mark knew nothing about this. Man-in-the-middle attacks are well understood, both experimentally and in the wild. No one at Facebook was “working tirelessly” to not protect against those attacks from the NSA. It’s like saying that you have an umbrella, but this umbrella only protects against rain that originated from water that evaporated from the Pacific, but not the Atlantic.
Danish mortgages
Something rotten
Denmark’s property market is built on rickety foundations
Apr 19th 2014 | BERLIN
The Economist
DURING the euro crisis struggling Mediterranean economies were discovered to have been living far beyond their means. Northern Europeans sniffed at the southerners’ spendthrift ways. But not all northerners are the epitome of parsimony: Danish households have the highest debt as a share of disposable income among the 34 members of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries. Their spending binge is beginning to look no more sustainable than that of the feckless southerners.
The culprit, as in so many other places, is the housing market. In 2004 only 10% of Danish mortgages had long interest-only periods, during which borrowers repaid none of the principal. By 2013 that number had climbed to 57%.
Wow, surprise eh? Draw spending forward via debt, which juices the economy. Then get a hangover when the debt must be repaid. OR - the central bank takes the debt on its balance sheet, making the lenders whole, but leaving the borrowers struggling with the albatross. A classic trickle-up policy.
Also, policy makers love the quick high debt gives the economy now. It’s like backdoor money-printing.
However, it is childish and naive to expect no consequences from these policies, either through stagnation or high inflation if the central bank gets too enthusiastic. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. Well - the society at large will anyway.
And finally - once again, the parallels are intriguing - gallopingly higher real estate prices and real estate speculation preceding economic malaise, as happened during the Great Depression, Savings and Loans scandal, and Financial Crisis of 2008.
No, it depends on the character of the person, not their profession.
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-16 09:39:17
Are you sure?
Comment by Housing CEO
2014-05-16 11:41:42
You mean all lawyers do lying during the job, but some can be stand up people in their private life?
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-05-16 18:13:51
No, I mean that people who are unethical will be unethical in their personal and professional life, regardless of profession.
I’m married to an attorney, my sister-in-law is an attorney, my father-in-law is an attorney turned judge, I work with attorneys pretty much every week (and have for the past 15+ years).
There are bad (unethical) ones, and there are good ones. And thankfully, the good outnumber the bad pretty considerably.
Of course, we generally work with partners at firms, so perhaps there is some selection bias…we once noted some unethical behavior of an associate to the partner with whom we worked. The associate was “encouraged to leave the firm” immediately.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-16 18:22:14
It’s no wonder you struggle with integrity when surrounded by that many liars.
Comment by MrsLolaSoros
2014-05-16 18:23:43
I’m married to an attorney, my sister-in-law is an attorney, my father-in-law is an attorney turned judge, I work with attorneys pretty much every week (and have for the past 15+ years).
Of course, we generally work with partners at firms…
These statements tell me you are a crooked member of the class of people who do not want to see housing drop. You like the system that feeds you, no matter how unethical it is FraudBoy.
So this guy (Jim), he can’t slap together his own jelly cabinet? Not to be sexis, but aren’t guys supposed to know how to do stuff like that? Even I could probably figure that one out.
red lobster sales have been cratering. Didnt darden own them? I havent been to a red lobster in years.
On a brighter note a dude came over and changed the windshield in my car yesterday. We got to talking about the phony recovery and he told me he lost 3 homes to foreclosure in the last bust all financed by countrywide. He was still bitter about losing 100,000.00 of his savings.
The Sentra has been a proven good choice for a friend of mine. Heck, in the future I see myself driving one maybe. In Oil City, in my $55/ft^2 tiny home.
Ya know… you lying lawyers haven’t done a very good job at changing the trajectory here or persuading anyone of anything other than the fact that your’e a bunch of liars.
Do your housing industry clients have any idea how much of a failure you are? Oh that’s right… it doesn’t matter to you so long as you’re billing hours.
I like reading about this stuff the same reason I like older movies that pre-dated the cellphone. There is something cool about how people made do with their contemporary technologies:
It’s possible that house prices could descend 10% in the next year, but
Americans are going to go through lots of challenges. The housing crisis is yesterday’s story. Inflation, the manipulation of all markets,
political corruption, the future of the Republican party, global warming, endless fed manipulation, are all more important issues than housing at this point of this pathetic game we are all playing.
I got 20 percent gain in housing in two years so I kept even with inflation. House ownership in rural USA is a shrewd move now. Acreage in rural burgs has not risen substantially
I could buy a house for cash in Grand Junction Co for cash and retire right now.
Sorry, for the crowing but maybe this will help young people.
Looks like a good deal if it’s on acreage, but this is rural housing. Most people are scared to live away from others. Also, you might have to drive 50 miles for a job.
Name:Ben Jones Location:Northern Arizona, United States To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
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I have been a constant reader of this blog for what must be 10+ years at this point, a housing Bear since 2003 when I realized that it didn’t make any sense that no matter who I talked to, no matter where they lived their house was increasing in value, I searched the Web for the answer and stumbled into the HBB which spelled it all out for me and was always a great read. Thank you
Main argument, Housing Analyst, what do you bring to the discussion? Imagine how legitimate yours posts would be if you began your diatribe here prior to the first crash, to pick up the reigns after the first crash and then preaching to people on a HOUSING BUBBLE Site, an audience of the true believers, who came to the crazy overpriced housing rationale way before you started posting, and way before the ship hit the iceberg, people only come here as it is one of the only place to get some validation on a concept which you must be 8 years behind on, your screed is completely useless, grating and completely after the fact.
Housing will crash again soon, I have no doubt and it will scorch the earth this time as it is global in scale, maybe you can tell us to avoid Spanish seaside vacation condos after that or some other obvious point
Ad hominem attack alert
The desperation is priceless.
Realtors don’t feel welcome here? Sad panda boo-hoo…
If you’re looking for Realtor circle jerk partners, try the city-data forums
‘try the city-data forums ‘
That place is Lake Wobegon.
you may want to refresh your understanding of the term ad hominem.
HA had other screen names prior to being HA, so he’s not really behind the times. But really, how hard was it to see the 2008 crash coming. Looking ahead is more of a question mark.
HA’s true crazy didn’t really start until a couple years ago when a few people here finally pulled the trigger (eastcoaster, SFhomowner), etc. That’s when you started addressing us as “realtor,” to the point where we actually had to confirm that we weren’t realtors.
“we actually had to confirm that we weren’t realtors”
You haven’t convinced me yet, Amy Hoaxide
Considering I didn’t make a single post from mid 2008 until 2013, this drama just keeps getting better.
the housing rebound was not kind to many posters pushed them over the edge
We at the FED want every American ( and Chinese ) to know that our policy is a strong dollar policy and treasuries are and have always been a great investment.
“We at the FED want every American ( and Chinese ) to know that our policy is a strong dollar policy and treasuries are and have always been a great investment.”
+1 Shalam.
Long time no see.
More and more of my friends are leaving San Francisco because of the cost of housing. Had we not bought we would have packed up and left already, too.
Looks like the bubble is back. The house we bought almost 2 years ago is now WTF worth nearly 200K more. Bwaa haa haaa. Crazy town.
Staying put and happy not to be subordinate to any landlord. Now working on starting my own business, cuz I really prefer not to have a boss, either.
You never left Junkie.
sfhomeowner
It’s nice to have a home and watch those with a psychotic proclivity attack us for getting in during an entry point. We have seen our floor plan fetch $525K, up almost $150K in 18 months. It’s insane, but true, and with our cement pond, we’d fetch more. Not interested in selling, but we had an entry point as well. Happy as clams. The pool has kept us cool in this So Ca heat wave.
Best of luck in your new business venture.
Still hangin’ round beggin’.
A friend of mine has been looking in SF to buy a house for the past few years. He has now given up, and will wait for the next cycle.
The last house he looked at, which hadn’t been renovated in many decades (and would require going to the studs to make it into what he wanted), ultimately sold for 30% over asking price, for more than $800 per foot.
Your losses make those seem like a mere pittance.
If it is so obvious then why all the shills on here lying and pimping day after day? HA is a rock, Gibraltar. Shills don’t like being between a rock and a hard place (except Lola).
If you are a shill/pimp go home, your pimp hand is weak. If not, study on why you are complaining about one person when the entire god darned media is shilling for the REIC pimps.
‘But really, how hard was it to see the 2008 crash coming’
Yeah, everybody knew it was a bubble.
We at the FED find it’s impossible to predict bubbles.
As long as you maintain a strong Banking systems of TRUSTED buddies any bubble can be managed.
It was easier to see in 2008 for many since the downturn had begun. More difficult in 2005 at the top. Then some of us who are good see-ers were glad to buy at 2004 prices. LOL, hard to see where that is going!
It was easier to see in 2008 for many since the downturn had begun. More difficult in 2005 at the top. Then some of us who are good see-ers were glad to buy at 2004 prices. LOL, hard to see where that is going!”
Maybe they will sell again at the next peak
Deep down, the financiers and traders knew it was a bubble. Just like they knew dot-com was a bubble. But they had to doublethink that it wasn’t a bubble in order to squeeze out just a little more profit before the sh!thouse went up in flames, so to speak.
There is the famous quote “I got rich by selling too soon.” Those traders get fired by selling too soon. And the media would get their ads canceled if they told people to sell too soon.
HA is a rock,”
I thought he was just stoned
HA was posting before the first crash too, but under a different name.
It’s only “worth” that while building materials are in a bubble, interest rates are near zero, the Fed pays banks to keep foreclosures and defaults in the dark, practically any fool can borrow six times their yearly income to buy it with a government guarantee and China pours more concrete in two years than the US did in a century.
Realtors are liars.
And have dog breath as well.
And are making me rich.
And making me poor.
The most important quality a Realtor needs is a sociopathic lack of empathy. It’s much easier to sleep at night after you pocket the commish *CHA CHING* setting some poor family of schmucks on the path to financial ruin. Its always a good time to buy or sell a house… for the bed bug that is.
in the financial ecosystem, realtors are bedbugs.
lolz
It amazes me how people treat them as professionals. Talk about the Devil convincing the world he doesn’t exist…
‘treat them as professionals’
they like to present the image of having education and professional accreditation like an attorney or certified public accountant, when in reality they couldn’t make it past the first chapter of ‘economics for dummies’.
No schooling necessary beyond the drivers test equivalent to get the license. How are they able to maintain the lock on the market in these days of zillow, movoto etc. It is because their tendrils run super deep into the political machine.
They need to be Travelocitied, but travel agents never had the juice and connections the developer shill crowd does.
“never had the juice”
The real estate “industry” has the juice, so much juice they donated $153 million in the 2012 election cycle:
https://www.opensecrets.org/industries/indus.php?ind=F10
“It amazes me how people treat them as professionals.”
From a post here a week or so ago I learned that at cocktail parties (some of them) realtors are treated as celebrities.
I have never dealt with a realtor as I never purchased, but what exactly is involved in becoming a realtor? I’d imagine nary a college degree, right?
*Disclaimer-1. Yes, I am too lazy to Google this 2. I have a feeling the responses to this will be amusing.
Realtors are licensed on a state by state basis. Most states require some minimal level of class room hours (like 80 hours) and then to pass an exam. It is a very low barrier to entry profession which is why there are so many flakes in the business.
Realtors are an 80/20 profession, i.e. 20% of the realtors do 80% of the business. The other 80% of realtors fight over the scraps.
Just like lawyers
treat them as professionals’
I remember some states you didn’t even need a HS diploma, just pass the RE exam..
Not the one I frenched. She was minty fresh.
I’m going with cat breath. Have you ever smelled a cat’s breath? T’aint pretty.
“Never get between a cat and its boy” — jose canusi, 5/15/2014
My cats get their teeth brush. They make tiny toothbrushes now, and enzymatic cat/dog toothpaste in meat flavors. If you start them as tykes, then they like it.
Houses depreciate rapidly. Losses to depreciation are irrecoverable.
Wanna buy my 15 year old Honda?
Better hurry if you do, cuz its value is going up $1,000 a week in this red hot spring selling season.
All I’m seeing is prices being dropped in PHX. If they drop it enough it sells, if not it sits.
“If they drop it enough it sells, if not it sits.”
+1 The cruel reality of buyers and sellers.
http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2014-05-15/look-housing-inflexion-point-brought-dysfunctional-real-estate-market
“I find it interesting that the biggest housing supporter of them all, the National Association of Realtors is also somewhat tepid on this recovery. Why? Because home sales volume is pathetic. Keep in mind they make money on selling and buying. Volume is key. Their model doesn’t work so well with banks holding onto properties like Gollum holding onto the ring and the foreclosure process being dragged out like the forever college student enjoying year 10 at Santa Monica City College. You see this overarching trend occurring in many metro areas across the country. Investors have been propping up the market since 2008. They are now slowly pulling back.”
I like the use of the term “house horny” in the article. Never heard that one before.
Barry Ritholz is saying similar things. Housing is one of the things he’s keeping an eye on.
“…banks holding onto properties like Gollum holding onto the ring…”
I don’t see anything changing. There are houses which have been sitting empty for well over 5 years, neither for sale no rent. Who’s to say they won’t sit empty for another 5 or 10? The Fed can carry these things Ad infinitum. That’s the beauty of the Fed, right? They can simply take all houses off the banks’ books and hold them forever, to permanently distort the market. The Fed is omnipotent.
In an attempt to keep the spirit of “Thank You Sir May I have Another” alive, 125 Percent loan-to-value loans are coming back!
http://www.zerohedge.com/?page=1
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha
The jokes just keep on writing themselves.
Back to the oven, fraud!
There is something wrong with the y-axes of those charts.
wall street journal - real estate rebound in asheville
‘families are drawn to asheville, nc for its small-town feel, good schools and great outdoors. young hipsters (who have trust funds, because there are no jobs there) come for the eclectic vibe, craft breweries and lively music scene.
but the good life comes at a price. for houses priced above $500,000, 2013 was the strongest year since 2007 … in the first four months of this year, the average asking price rose to $459,500 from $409,400 in the year-ago period.
boosting asheville’s appeal are its distinctly different neighborhoods. young, progressive residents (PUKE) flock to the burgeoning river arts district, with its vibrant arts scene. the cool crowd (who still live off of mommy and daddy, because there are no jobs) also likes west asheville, a funky area across the french broad river that has tattoo parlors (because nothing communicates your special snowflake individuality better than being inked up just like everybody else), bike shops and creative eateries.
‘it will bring in jobs, it will bring in tourists and it will bring in money,’ said mike miller, co-owner of town and mountain realty (PUKE). at the same time, he is concerned that asheville will be ‘loved to death,’ as he said, with new arrivals driving up property prices and causing future home buyers to look elsewhere.’
http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304081804579558030375906224
i know some people who went to warren wilson college and tried to stay in asheville after college, the best jobs they could get were as bartenders. and there is alot of cocaine and heroin in the trust fund crowd
‘‘families are drawn to asheville, nc for its small-town feel’
I lived there years ago, when it was still a bit sleepy and unexploited to its fullest. Finding a job and apartment were challenges. The only way I’d try to move back is if I had a million dollars ..harumph…and the desire to try and fit in with the demos there, which I don’t anymore. Too much granola crunch, not enough cosmopolitan aspects really. Area depends greatly on tourists and retirees IMHO.
At least Boulder has jobs.
‘At least Boulder has jobs.’
It does. Also, better outdoor amenities IMHO. Ideally, my line of thinking would be to live and work in some very affordable mid western city and bank money and take your vacations in those utopia urbs. I mean, part of the thrill of getting to Yosemite and hiking is that I do not go there every weekend if I lived in a nearby city. The pain and pleasure principle. I look forward to the trip and hike. Personally, I think real estate is a peer pressure thing to a degree too. OK, when I was college age and hated living under my father’s roof, getting my own place was imperative. Now, I just wonder if having a house that can have a lien on it or forfeiture, etc, is worth the idea of nesting and being able to have friends impressed and others over to enjoy the square footage is where it is at. I ‘ve said that probably the more efficient use of money is to have a nice car and make the status quo cut at work and come home to an apartment and save your money while you plan to move to a better paying job somewhere else.
When is it time for wall street to shake out the weak hands again?
Right about now, wouldn’t you say? Can’t you feel it coming?
And the a Messiah defenders and statists utter not a peep about the Messiah’s hand picked crook Mel Watt trying to pour on mo gogo juice.
Obama owns this one now also.
Lay him off. He’s pushing housing affordability….what’s so wrong with that?
From Wiki:
In 2004, Ralph Nader attended a meeting with the Congressional Black Caucus, at which Nader clashed with members of the caucus over his presidential bid. After the meeting, Nader alleged that Watt twice uttered an “obscene racial epithet” towards him. It was alleged that Watt said: “You’re just another arrogant white man — telling us what we can do — it’s all about your ego — another fucking arrogant white man.” Although Nader wrote a letter to the Caucus and to Watt asking for an apology, none was offered.[19]
Lola is gonna be very mad at this man’s racism.
http://picpaste.com/mel_watt.jpg
AFAWM.
What is the point of posting a link to a photograph of the guy?
He looks like he has white genes too.
He looks like he has white genes too.
Next president?
I’d like to hear the answer from rms. It reminds of the time that Rush Limbaugh briefly had a TV show. Sometimes when he would rant and rave about one of his liberal villains he would display a still photograph of the person for the audience. As with this case, I wasn’t sure what the point was. Perhaps it intensified the feelings of anger and hatred in the audience, making it more pleasurable for them.
“I’d like to hear the answer from rms.”
I thought I’d add a face to the name since you never know who might stumble onto the HBB today for the first time. Have to admit though that he does appear short on bling; needs an chunky NBA style necklace or a gold dental crown w/diamond.
Gee, I can’t see why you expect to bling on a bureaucrat or think that that would be an improvement.
Black, white, green or blue he’s a scumbag and a crook. Bagman for the boys.
“What is the point of posting a link to a photograph of the guy?”
He/She is obviously a racist for posting the photo. Time to send in the brown shirts and take away rms’s livelihood.
Maybe we’ll get the Affordable Housing Act, where we all have to make mortgage payments on overpriced houses, whether we want a house or not.
I’m thinking we will all have to make mortgage payments on other people’s overpriced houses, whether we want or have a house of our own.
Isn’t that what the federal guarantee does?
If you like your house, you can keep your house.
Maybe that you should be whether you need a place to live or not.
Two immigration articles linked from Drudge
Obama planning executive action to pass the shamnesty and secure the Permanent Democrat Supermajority:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_IMMIGRATION?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2014-05-16-04-19-05
And racist Republicans respond:
“Regardless of one’s position on the larger immigration reform question, it’s incredibly alarming that tens of thousands of convicted criminal aliens — including hundreds of murderers, kidnappers, and rapists — who were processed for deportation are being freed into our communities by the Obama administration,” Reps. Bob Goodlatte (R-Va.) and Lamar Smith (R-Texas), the chairman and former chairman of the House Judiciary Committee, respectively, said this week in a statement.”
http://thehill.com/homenews/house/206281-released-criminals-become-gops-new-weapon-in-immigration-fight
Create a problem and propose a solution to fix it.
That’s the oldest trick in the history of government.
Teabaggers pimp the shamnesty too:
http://www.politico.com/story/2014/05/tea-party-express-sal-russo-immigration-reform-106675.html
So when you wake up to find your formerly middle class neighborhood now feels more like a peasant village in Guatemala, be sure to remember it was a “bipartisan” achievement
Notice Sal Russo is not running for any office. Looks like he’s been coopted, but the tea party voters won’t go for candidates pushing shamnesty. And those voters are the only ones standing in the way.
And so we begin the next leg down in the stagflationary depression:
http://www.infowars.com/report-food-prices-skyrocket-were-going-to-have-a-major-problem-coming-into-the-fall/
“…the stagflationary depression…”
+1 On topic.
Let ‘em eat bologna and mac-n-cheese!
Cartels and speculators are not inflation.
BULLSEYE
It may not meet the technical definition of “inflation” as defined by economists, but the living conditions experienced by the majority of Americans in the past decade are stagflation.
If you’re not a 1%er, you’re living in a stagflationary depression.
I thought that you had so much money that you didn’t know what to do with it.
As a renter, I most certainly do.
But that doesn’t mean I enjoy paying higher prices for food, energy, health insurance.
“It may not meet the technical definition…”
If you just want to complain about your hopeless situation, then it makes no difference. If you are solution minded, then try to identify the cause.
There is an entirely different strategy to take against inflation vs. against manipulation.
+ crater
We’ll have some problem of some sort “into the fall”. At least this doom and gloom prediction has a date on it. So we can all get back together in a few months and see if it pans out.
Price fixing and bottlenecking supply is certainly gloom and doom.
Falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is positively bullish.
I wonder if we’ll ever see articles complaining that cratering house prices are not included in the official inflation rate.
Were they included on the way up? I think house prices absolutely should be included.
‘consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell in may, as consumers worried about stagnant wage growth, according to a survey released friday.
the preliminary may reading of the university of michigan and thomson reuters consumer sentiment index slumped to a reading of 81.8, down from 84.1 in april.
economists polled by marketwatch expected a 85.0 reading.’
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-sentiment-dips-in-may-2014-05-16?dist=afterbell
Series of short essays written by Rollo Tomassi discussing gender relations:
http://therationalmale.com/the-best-of-rational-male-year-one/
When will narcissistic males stop posting this drivel ad nauseum on the internet? I have explained this to you already. The female, as the child bearer, is the one who takes the greatest risk in a relationship. This is generational risk and, by extension, species risk. That is why females have a higher standard for sexual selection. If you are so egotistical as to think that females should be chasing after you, then you will not find much success. Biology already cleaned that clock.
And make your own jelly cabinet, Goon!
‘Documents released alongside security journalist Glenn Greenwald’s new book, “No Place To Hide,” reveal the NSA and FBI partnership, in which the two agencies developed techniques for exploiting Facebook chats, capturing private photos, collecting IP addresses, and gathering private profile data.’
‘According to the slides below, the agencies’ goal for such collection was to capture “a very rich source of information on targets,” including “personal details, ‘pattern of life,’ connections to associates, [and] media.”
‘The report states that the NSA also “disguises itself as a fake Facebook server” to perform “man-in-the-middle” and “man-on-the-side” attacks and spread malware.’
‘As we wrote at the time, the “NSA’s Facebook targeting is reportedly a response to the declining success of other malware injection techniques. Previous techniques included the use of “spam emails that trick targets into clicking a malicious link.”
‘Following the report, released in March, Zuckerberg said, “When our engineers work tirelessly to improve security, we imagine we’re protecting you against criminals, not our own government.”
And of course, when caught committing these crimes, the government immediately ceased these rogue operations. Wait, are you telling me they continue to this day and no one was held to account? Do they really expect us to believe that terrorists are using facebook?
More in your face criminality from the federal government.
Glenn Greenwald on C-SPAN’s Washington Journal on Wednesday:
http://www.c-span.org/video/?319258-7/washington-journal-glenn-greenwald-edward-snowden
I do not believe that Mark knew nothing about this. Man-in-the-middle attacks are well understood, both experimentally and in the wild. No one at Facebook was “working tirelessly” to not protect against those attacks from the NSA. It’s like saying that you have an umbrella, but this umbrella only protects against rain that originated from water that evaporated from the Pacific, but not the Atlantic.
Danish mortgages
Something rotten
Denmark’s property market is built on rickety foundations
Apr 19th 2014 | BERLIN
The Economist
DURING the euro crisis struggling Mediterranean economies were discovered to have been living far beyond their means. Northern Europeans sniffed at the southerners’ spendthrift ways. But not all northerners are the epitome of parsimony: Danish households have the highest debt as a share of disposable income among the 34 members of the OECD, a club of mostly rich countries. Their spending binge is beginning to look no more sustainable than that of the feckless southerners.
The culprit, as in so many other places, is the housing market. In 2004 only 10% of Danish mortgages had long interest-only periods, during which borrowers repaid none of the principal. By 2013 that number had climbed to 57%.
http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21600994-denmarks-property-market-built-rickety-foundations-something-rotten
Wow, surprise eh? Draw spending forward via debt, which juices the economy. Then get a hangover when the debt must be repaid. OR - the central bank takes the debt on its balance sheet, making the lenders whole, but leaving the borrowers struggling with the albatross. A classic trickle-up policy.
Also, policy makers love the quick high debt gives the economy now. It’s like backdoor money-printing.
However, it is childish and naive to expect no consequences from these policies, either through stagnation or high inflation if the central bank gets too enthusiastic. Sow the wind, reap the whirlwind. Well - the society at large will anyway.
And finally - once again, the parallels are intriguing - gallopingly higher real estate prices and real estate speculation preceding economic malaise, as happened during the Great Depression, Savings and Loans scandal, and Financial Crisis of 2008.
Are lawyers liars?
Depends on the lawyer…just like the answer to “are people liars?”.
Oh I see. It depends how much you pay them. Got it.
No, it depends on the character of the person, not their profession.
Are you sure?
You mean all lawyers do lying during the job, but some can be stand up people in their private life?
No, I mean that people who are unethical will be unethical in their personal and professional life, regardless of profession.
I’m married to an attorney, my sister-in-law is an attorney, my father-in-law is an attorney turned judge, I work with attorneys pretty much every week (and have for the past 15+ years).
There are bad (unethical) ones, and there are good ones. And thankfully, the good outnumber the bad pretty considerably.
Of course, we generally work with partners at firms, so perhaps there is some selection bias…we once noted some unethical behavior of an associate to the partner with whom we worked. The associate was “encouraged to leave the firm” immediately.
It’s no wonder you struggle with integrity when surrounded by that many liars.
I’m married to an attorney, my sister-in-law is an attorney, my father-in-law is an attorney turned judge, I work with attorneys pretty much every week (and have for the past 15+ years).
Of course, we generally work with partners at firms…
These statements tell me you are a crooked member of the class of people who do not want to see housing drop. You like the system that feeds you, no matter how unethical it is FraudBoy.
Yes, it is their job to spin tales on behalf of their clients.
That’s called persuasion, not lying. Fabricating evidence is illegal and unethical and if a lawyer does that, they won’t be doing it for long.
lol…..
If that were the measure you’re not a very good liawyer.
The practice of law is a learned and noble profession.
Fact: The first part of a Jedi’s training is actually law school.
And you’re a lousy one. I wouldn’t pay you a nickel.
Coming from you I consider that a compliment, thank you!
And everyone here knows it.
You wanna buy the golden gate bridge from me?
Where is Liberace?
It’s Friday. I presume he’s setting up for a gig. Where is he gigging these days?
Hotel Coral Essex
http://maine.craigslist.org/trd/4473307369.html
So this guy (Jim), he can’t slap together his own jelly cabinet? Not to be sexis, but aren’t guys supposed to know how to do stuff like that? Even I could probably figure that one out.
Damn’t Jim, I’m an ObamaCare doctor, not a low wage cabinet maker.
Red Lobster has been purchased by a private equity firm. I am worried that my shrimp Alfredo will be compromised.
PS
crater
red lobster sales have been cratering. Didnt darden own them? I havent been to a red lobster in years.
On a brighter note a dude came over and changed the windshield in my car yesterday. We got to talking about the phony recovery and he told me he lost 3 homes to foreclosure in the last bust all financed by countrywide. He was still bitter about losing 100,000.00 of his savings.
Crater. I love it.
How much did the new glass cost you(or the insurance co)?
‘He was still bitter about losing 100,000.00 of his savings.’
HA, your turn now.
I wouldn’t touch Darden Stock right now with a ten foot pole
Ya know GoonSquad… I think you’re right. Realtors really are liars.
Suzanne researched it:
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hPIxrzmatq0
Really need a screen saver with that “What?” rattlesnake twitch.
Tons of lucky ducky Nissan Sentras for sale on CL:
http://maine.craigslist.org/search/cta?query=sentra
The Sentra has been a proven good choice for a friend of mine. Heck, in the future I see myself driving one maybe. In Oil City, in my $55/ft^2 tiny home.
Eight zip codes in Maricopa county are reporting decreased prices (per square foot) for Q12014, as compared to Q12013.
http://www.dqnews.com/Charts/Quarterly-Charts/Phoenix-Charts/ZIPAZ.aspx
crater
Ya know… you lying lawyers haven’t done a very good job at changing the trajectory here or persuading anyone of anything other than the fact that your’e a bunch of liars.
Do your housing industry clients have any idea how much of a failure you are? Oh that’s right… it doesn’t matter to you so long as you’re billing hours.
creeps.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEULVyg1O_8&feature=kp
All my little children , I’m a God to them you know
Gary Larson should have been an economist.
https://www.google.com/search?q=cartoon+and+here+a+miracle+happens&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=R6R2U_DlNcPtoATbhYKABg&ved=0CCUQsAQ&biw=1600&bih=805#facrc=_&imgdii=_&imgrc=1-DqWQx3vyKP7M%253A%3BgH6VlLUbJgmH-M%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fsunsongdachshunds.files.wordpress.com%252F2013%252F04%252Fthen_a_miracle_occurs.jpg%3Bhttp%253A%252F%252Fsunsongdachshunds.wordpress.com%252F2013%252F04%252F01%252Fdachshunds-top-the-karlton-index-2013%252F%3B350%3B300
I like reading about this stuff the same reason I like older movies that pre-dated the cellphone. There is something cool about how people made do with their contemporary technologies:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Industrial_Revolution
It’s possible that house prices could descend 10% in the next year, but
Americans are going to go through lots of challenges. The housing crisis is yesterday’s story. Inflation, the manipulation of all markets,
political corruption, the future of the Republican party, global warming, endless fed manipulation, are all more important issues than housing at this point of this pathetic game we are all playing.
I got 20 percent gain in housing in two years so I kept even with inflation. House ownership in rural USA is a shrewd move now. Acreage in rural burgs has not risen substantially
I could buy a house for cash in Grand Junction Co for cash and retire right now.
Sorry, for the crowing but maybe this will help young people.
If you think housing is yesterdays story and there is actually inflation, you’re in for the surprise of your life.
http://blacksburg.craigslist.org/reb/4466735857.html
Looks like a good deal if it’s on acreage, but this is rural housing. Most people are scared to live away from others. Also, you might have to drive 50 miles for a job.