Bits Bucket for May 17, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Would now be a good time to buy the dip?
It’s always a good time to buy, dip or no dip.
Buying real estate is a sure way to build equity, to build wealth. And the surest and the fastest way to do this is by the use of borrowed money - money borrowed from other people. In other words: Other People’s Money.
Other People’s Money: This is what I use to build my wealth and this what your can use to build your own wealth.
Visit your local banker today and make it happen!
And when you come, bring along a friend.
I have coffee freshly brewed and ready for you both. And the best part of this for you and your friend is the coffee is free!
(psssssst. This free coffee you are being offered just may turn out to be the most expensive coffee you will ever drink.)
But “older and wiser” people told them to go drink the free coffee so it can’t be so, son.
Older and wiser. Never take financial advice from a Baby Boomer. They were born on 3rd base.
“Never take financial advice from a Baby Boomer. They were born on 3rd base.”
Likely true for the early boomers.
BFS (and you can work out that particular acronym for yourself!)
I had two dinners in the last week that brought home this point — one with someone from India and the other with someone from Hong Kong both of whom went on and on and on and on about how RE was the only way to riches.
Both were over sixty. Social connections. It was painful at many different levels.
Just because you win the generational sweepstakes doesn’t make it a rational investing strategy.
I’m still on the right side of forty. This game got legs. I’ll be around for a bit. Let’s see how it plays out, shall we?
“I’m still on the right side of forty.”
Did you ogle their Yankee trophy wives?
…one with someone from India and the other with someone from Hong Kong…
I think that along with luck of being born > 60 years ago, the luck of getting a college education when there was no competition and luck of landing a job that ended up paying decently as the years went by has to do a lot with these individuals (from different countries) building a nest egg.
buy the dip
Lucas Ekstrom
Uploaded on Nov 15, 2010
“If you don’t buy the dip, you are a f-ing idiot”
(Ratings warning: The f-bombs in this YouTube video are clearly for the sole purpose of highlighting the inanity of dips buying.)
May 16, 2014, 5:04 p.m. EDT
U.S. stocks end higher as ‘buy the dip’ takes hold
S&P 500, Dow average post slight loss; Nasdaq Composite rebounds
By Anora Mahmudova, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market closed higher Friday after an abrupt late-day reversal. Analysts attributed such a move to ‘buying the dip’ strategy that has been the theme in the past few months.
Stocks traded in negative territory for the most of the session, after mixed economic reports in the morning.
The S&P 500 (SPX +0.37%) added 7.01 points, or 0.4%, to 1,877.86 and finished the week with a slight loss. It touched record levels during the week.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA +0.27%) rose 44.50 points, or 0.3%, to 16,491.31, limiting the weekly loss to 0.6%. It also notched a new record during the week.
The Nasdaq Composite’s (COMP +0.52%) gain on Friday helped the index to register a weekly gain. The index ended the day up 21.30 points, or 0.5%, at 4,090.59 and gained 0.5% over the week.
“It looks like several selloff attempts and shallow retreats brought in buyers in the afternoon,” said Gene Peroni, senior vice president of equity research at Advisors Asset Management.
“Markets firmed as short-sellers went neutral going into the weekend, as there is more fear of being short than being long right now,” he added.
Kate Warne, investment strategist at Edward Jones echoes this view.
“This has been a consistent pattern: every time stocks decline, buyers arrived and bought the dip as the long-term outlook remains positive,” Warne said.
…
“Analysts attributed such a move to ‘buying the dip’ strategy that has been the theme in the past few months.”
The past “few” months - like the last 60 months…
Tie up your money in a stucco box depreciating asset means not being able to dollar cost average into stock funds. The only winners are Mr. Banker and reatards when you buy a stucco box.
“The only winners are Mr. Banker and reatards when you buy a stucco box.”
The “reatards” (as you call them) only get to win once. I, Mr. Banker, get to win every month for … well, forever if it can be arranged.
I think you’ve won more than once with Amy also. Just goes to show you, coffee is for closers only.
Coffee is for closers only
I was getting pitched by someone who wanted me to get back into stocks. I was told about the importance of working with a big player. But I took my own advice and thought about how those folks get paid. They get paid on the transaction, not based on whether the asset goes up or down in price. Ditto for any other salesperson who is paid on a transaction-fee model.
The casino is not worried about whether you win or lose. They get paid based on the fact you’re playing.
Juxtaposed to that, Vanguard funds is investor-owned. So everyone who owns/buys/dollar cost averages into vanguard funds and ETFs is an owner of Vanguard. The management fees are very low. No load Vanguard 500 index fund Admiral has a 0.05 expense ratio and $10,000 gets you in. expenses on even managed funds are very low.
At Vanguard you can start with the Investor class with $3,000 for most of their index funds. Dollar cost average into the investor class fund until you reach the 10k Admiral class threshold and you can convert to the Admiral class at no charge (and it is not a taxable event).
My go to fund for dollar cost averaging is Vanguard’s LifeStategy Growth product, which is a fund of index funds.
The LifeStrategy funds come in a variety of asset allocations. The most aggressive is 80%-20% stocks/fixed income, They also offer 60/40, 40/60, and 20/80 versions. All of them are funds of index funds.
The 17 basis point management fee is a little bit higher than the Admiral funds, but I think they’re a great investment vehicle as it gives you foreign and domestic exposure in both equities and fixed income.
I’m not smart enough to time the markets, but a couple or a few years ago I realized that sitting in cash was not the right thing to do, so I decided to set up some initial investments in a variety of Vanguard funds and dollar cost average up from there.
In addition to the LifeStrategy fund, I dollar cost average into the Vanguard REIT index, Emerging Markets index, and the Small Cap index fund. I’m probably a little bit short in my allocation to fixed income and foreign equities.
A big part of investing is giving yourself permission to be imperfect - no one is right 100% of the time. By dollar cost averaging into positions over months or years I don’t second guess myself with the woulda, coulda, shoulda lines of thinking.
So I spend most of my investment time on studying my asset allocations rather than individual stock picking.
great points all. And it looks like we have common funds. Its emerging markets fund is very good. But that is about the best in its international. This is why I buy Dodge and Cox international in my Vanguard Voyager account. It beats all the similar Vanguard international funds - developed markets.
Vanguard excels in its bond funds and domestic stock funds. Hard to beat.
Emerging markets dip ? Now that growth is slowing in developed economies and money is getting cheap once again will hedge funds export inflation to goose their portfolios ?
The dollar cost averaging into emerging market funds is once again, proven to be a wise choice. I was in the red for a couple months last fall in my VEMAX. Now I’m in the green and the NAV is about 7% above my cost.
The Vanguard REIT index fund is also doing very well YTD.
REITs lagged the broader markets in 2013.
Oh yes thanks for bringing it up. I forgot about that one and noticed that yes, I’m now in the green on Vanguard’s REIT fund. I put $3,000 minimum into it a year ago and add $50 per month.
Bill - with all due respect, $3k is an insignificant allocation in a portfolio in excess of $500k.
You might want to consider adding more than fifty bucks a month and target the Admiral class by dollar cost averaging up to that level. Even $10k is a relatively small allocation.
Yeah I hear ya. I just did not want too much going into the REIT yet. My monthly contribution is 4% of what I contribute into Vanguard funds and Vanguard Voyager brokerage. Actually it should be 6%, so I’m changing that now. Will get to the Admiral level in the REIT in a few years. I’ve the following admirals: VFIAX, VEMAX, VSGAX, VTCLX. My VWESX needs a balance of $50,000 to change to admiral. Far from there.
In my current 401k I put 6% of my contributions in REITS also. 6% is the suggestion from my financial advisers.
I ditched my REIT allocation last year after I figured the Echo Bubble had run its course. I used the proceeds to buy the dip in Treasurys last August. So far, so good!
I’ll get back into REITs again after the next serious real estate crash, which may be a few years from now with Mel Watt in the game.
This comment prompted me to take a closer look at the Vanguard Emerging Markets index fund. From Vanguard’s website:
“Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund seeks to track the investment performance of the FTSE Emerging Index, The fund invests substantially all (normally about 95%) of its assets in the common stocks of the index, while employing a form of sampling to reduce risk. The FTSE Emerging Index is a market-capitalization weighted index representing the performance of large and mid cap companies in emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India, Taiwan, and China.”
Digging a little further, the top 5 national allocations are:
China - 20.6%, Brazil - 13.7%, Taiwan - 13.7%, India - 9.9%, and South Africa -9.7%. These top five aggregate to 67.6% of the fund.
Between China and Taiwan the allocation is 34.3%.
Note to self: dollar cost average into this and keep total allocation below 10%.
“note to self…”
Consider that your China investment counteracts what you invest in “progressive” nations such as USA.
“Would now be a good time to buy the dip?”
No, because Realtors are LIARS!
Is Lola for sale?
Lola in favela
Craving ATM moolah.
Green shirt on his back
Mango on attack.
Soros is the Don
Lola’s just the pawn.
Round his ankles pants
All he does is rants
Favela boys his dreams
Once inside he screams?
another blackout,
my how he shouts
Livin in D C
Is he he or she?
Walkin’ Rio in his thong
All mixed up from hittin’ bong…
Shillin for Messiah
Lola’s just a liah
His friend had a gun
He Might be on the run
Riotard
Kickin it old skool
Joey makes him hard,
Harpsichord drool
High net worth
Breath smells worse
Posting articles, three years old
On a webcam, with a bag that rolls
A green shirted mango’d Soros shill
Shifting his tranny to get up that hill
^LOLZ!!!!!!
^LOLZ!!!!!!
+1 Yeah, that’s pretty rich.
How marijuana legalization is trashing the Mexican drug cartel biz:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-16/how-marijuana-legalization-america-destroying-mexican-drug-cartel-business
This is awesome, and thank you, Colorado!
But just as as aside, looks like the DEA is on the war path. Predictably, they don’t want the drug war to end and don’t want to see their drug dealing buddies put out of business.
In fact, I just saw on the news yesterday how some group has come up with big bux to stop weed legalization in Florida. Hmmmm. Wonder who they’re protecting?
Easiest problem in the world to fix. See Thailand.
“and thank you, Colorado!”
Yeah we’re pretty awesome like that. Now spend all of your tourist dollars HERE!
DEA is on the war path. Predictably, they don’t want the drug war to end ??
Ya think….?? Its about jobs and the money that comes with it….There is a massive amount of jobs & professions that are supported by the war on drugs…
Not to mention pensions.
Or prisons…
Big Pharma very afraid of legalization.
City Journal - The Last Communist City
A visit to the dystopian Havana that tourists never see
“Outside its small tourist sector, the rest of the city looks as though it suffered a catastrophe on the scale of Hurricane Katrina or the Indonesian tsunami. Roofs have collapsed. Walls are splitting apart. Window glass is missing. Paint has long vanished. It’s eerily dark at night, almost entirely free of automobile traffic. I walked for miles through an enormous swath of destruction without seeing a single tourist. Most foreigners don’t know that this other Havana exists, though it makes up most of the city—tourist buses avoid it, as do taxis arriving from the airport. It is filled with people struggling to eke out a life in the ruins.
Marxists have ruled Cuba for more than a half-century now. Fidel Castro, Argentine guerrilla Che Guevara, and their 26th of July Movement forced Fulgencio Batista from power in 1959 and replaced his standard-issue authoritarian regime with a Communist one. The revolutionaries promised liberal democracy, but Castro secured absolute power and flattened the country with a Marxist-Leninist battering ram. The objectives were total equality and the abolition of money; the methods were total surveillance and political prisons. The state slogan, then and now, is “socialism or death.”
http://www.city-journal.org/2014/24_2_havana.html
Is that Lola’s ATM house? And Lola in a green shirt!
So it looks like Detroit?
I’ve been to Cuba, and this article is spot-on accurate. I love the description of the incurable liberals who cannot be convinced that Cuba is a great example of Communism at its finest. The standard of living in Cuba in 1958 was higher than Spain. When I see Americans wearing Che Guevara shirts, I shake my head in disbelief.
I met a man who knew him personally. He was just like a Chinese communist. He would kill anyone who got in his way. Only Mao, Hitler, Stalin and Pot were worse than Che, Fidel, or Raul.
HBB tees!
Make one: http://www.customink.com/lab#loc-singles
—–
http://picpaste.com/V.jpg
http://picpaste.com/PB.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Oxide.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Muggy.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Joe.jpg
http://picpaste.com/HA.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Goon.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Combo.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Blue_1.jpg
http://picpaste.com/BILA.jpg
http://picpaste.com/Ben.png
Awesome!
Do you have an order policy?
The site allows you to “mock-up” your order. All I did was a screenshot of the mock-up.
I was dorking around with a shirt for my work group, and uh, you know, got a little side-tracked.
That was incredible Muggy…Nice work….
#1 best….27 years to go Debt Donkey
#2 and a very close to a winner….BILA
I’d like one with goon’s lament:
“government contractors = bootstrapping, rugged individualist, invisible hand of the free market, galt gulch, horatio alger, manifest destiny, mcguffey reader, one room schoolhouse, taming the frontier, born in a log cabin, tom sawyer and huck finn, etc.”
http://picpaste.com/Goon2.jpg
That’s a kick-ass T-shirt!
lmao
Joe’s is great.
Actually, oxide’s is “21 years to go” but I guess that’s a minor detail.
Like that would make any difference at all.
Oooh, I only got 21 years to pay it off. Not 27, darling. Only 21.
There’s a selling point for never getting laid.
J-j-j–joes made me laugh.
People like oxide give me shlt for having worked for the gubment but no one gives goon shlt. I like goon2.
Love it!
What’s on your shirt Muggy?
Rentaz 4 Life, an illusion to a gangster rap album in the early 90’s.
allusion
Out in the sun all day = FL fried brain.
http://picpaste.com/FPSS.jpg
I can’t tell if he’s belching or gargling.
http://picpaste.com/Rio.jpg
One more:
Throwback:
http://picpaste.com/Alad.jpg
Couldn’t find a likeness of Gollum for that one?
Nice!
As Emissions Fall, Greens Embrace Shale - Steve Everly, EnergyinDepth
For many years, environmental activists have pushed for bans, moratoria, or other restrictions on hydraulic fracturing (“fracking”), alleging the process is a threat to public health and the environment. But in recent months, increasing numbers of environmentalists have distanced themselves from the “ban fracking” agenda. Many have even embraced shale gas on environmental grounds, - - -
In April, the Environmental Protection Agency released data showing U.S. greenhouse gas emissions had fallen 10 percent since 2005, attributable in large part to increased use of natural gas. Hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling have unlocked a 100-year supply of natural gas, making the fuel more affordable for power generation and household energy use.
“Responsible development of natural gas is an important part of our work to curb climate change,” said U.S. EPA administrator Gina McCarthy last August. McCarthy also said natural gas has been a “game changer with our ability to really move forward with pollution reductions that have been very hard to get our arms around for many decades.”
Owing to its ability to reduce emissions, the former executive director of Greenpeace in the U.K., Stephen Tindale, is now encouraging his fellow environmentalists to embrace shale gas. In a May 8th blog post entitled “The climate case for shale gas,” Tindale wrote that “climate campaigners should support fracking for shale gas.”
The Breakthrough Institute (BTI) – an environmental organization headquartered in Oakland, Calif., co-founded by two individuals recognized by TIME Magazine as “
heroes of the environment” – has come to a similar conclusion.
“Not since European deployment of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s has any country achieved such rapid decarbonization as the United States has in the last five years thanks to cheap natural gas,” BTI analysts
wrote last summer. In a separate report, BTI concluded that “natural gas is a net environmental benefit at local, regional, national, and global levels,” citing reductions in both greenhouse gases emissions and localized air emissions.
http://www.google.com/gwt/n?u=http://energyindepth.org/national/emissions-fall-greens-embrace-shale-gas/
Fracking, good for the environment and good for the economy.
“Not since European deployment of nuclear power in the 1970s and 1980s has any country achieved such rapid decarbonization as the United States has in the last five years thanks to cheap natural gas,” BTI analysts wrote last summer. In a separate report, BTI concluded that “natural
Say what? Natural gas is a hydrocarbon gas mixture.
It releases less carbon dioxide per unit energy than petroleum and coal.
That’s what they meant (probably) but the way of stating it is rather obtuse.
I think because it’s much cleaner and more efficient than other sources. Replacing coal in Power plants and diesel fuel in big trucks has a significant improvement in pollution.
I’ve heard that compressed natural gas (CNG ) has limits for big trucks in that they’ll have to refuel more often, but if the price is right and the government keeps pushing it, the use of CNG will expand.
Fracking has led to the finding of 100 years of reserves making CNG a nice bridge fuel until the other forms of energy can be developed. I don’t think we need that many but it’s good to know it’s available.
Maybe it is “good carbon”?
Like “clean” coal?
Yeah, CNG burns cleaner, so it does pollute less. But it still creates CO2.
The deal is that methane produces less CO2 per unit of heat released, because it has more C-H bonds per carbon.
From this perspective, ethanol is not such a “good” fuel.
And the notion that the transportation biz is going to run on any of this low density fuel is akin to saying the sun is going to set in the east.
Lawyers are liars.
If somebody gets paid more the longer your problem goes on or more the bigger your problem is, what do you think they might tell you about the problem ?
Our entire society is dysfunctional. All institutions at all levels modeled on heroin addicts and obesity.
I’ve had to deal with attorneys twice in my life, both times regarding incapacitated individuals. On both occasions the attorneys were over-billing hours in grotesque fashion, taking advantage of the disadvantaged. Both were court-appointed, too. It was disgusting.
Hilarious post by muggy that was posted too late yesterday
HEE haw!
He hit it out of the park with that one. I’m dying laughing still.
May 16, 2014, 9:58 a.m. EDT
10 ways Wall Street skims $100 billion of your money
Commentary: Stop paying excessive fees, do your own investing
By Paul B. Farrell, MarketWatch
SAN LUIS OBISPO, Calif. (MarketWatch) — Wake up America, you’re wasting your money paying big advisory fees for hot tips on the stock-market casino. The Wall Street Journal just hammered home my point with this scary comparison:
Put $200,000 in stock ETFs averaging 0.04% fees and you’d have $2.0 million for retirement in three decades. But put the same $200,000 in mutual funds charging the industry average annual fee of 1.25%? You’d only have $1.4 million in 30 years.
Get it? You’d lose $600,000. You’d have $600,000 less for retirement. You’d lose but some clever advisers would pocket your $600,000 into their retirement accounts.
…
“You’d lose but some clever advisers would pocket your $600,000 into their retirement accounts.”
Just part of God’s plan.
“If God did not want them sheared then He would not have made them sheep” - Calderas
This has been known for many years, yet it still persists as a business model. They do a tremendous amount of lying and shillery to avoid people knowing the true price. Many businesses are based on trying to avoid price discovery.
Anything to avoid discussion of price. Experiment with your own dollars and once you’ve made this observation, it opens a whole new perspective.
Many businesses are based on trying to avoid price discovery.
Are you drunk?
100% of all businesses are based on trying to avoid price discovery.
It just sucks for most that it’s harder now than ever. Even then the obfuscation is off the charts. For example, I think the whole travel industry has gone back behind the wall of obfuscation that was briefly opened up for about 5-7 years. They just found new ways. The price is no longer the price.
Dominoes Pizza tells you the price. But I wish I was drunk.
Have you noticed the housing market really heating up in your area lately?
Southern California housing market slowly heating up
By Gregory J. Wilcox, Los Angeles Daily News
Posted: 05/13/14, 3:41 PM PDT | Updated: 3 days ago
Southern California’s housing market improved a bit in April, with sales rising more than usual from March while slipping below the 2013 level by the smallest margin in six months, a market tracker said Tuesday.
Last month, 20,008 new and resale houses and condos sold in the six-county region, up 13 percent from 17,638 sales in March but down 7 percent from 21,415 sales in April 2013, said La Jolla-based DataQuick.
The increase between March and April has averaged 1 percent since 1988, when DataQuick began tracking the market. Sales have fallen on a year-over-year basis for seven months in a row, but April’s decline was the smallest since a 4 percent decrease last October, the company said.
The statewide median price increased 13 percent, to $404,000 from $357,000 a year ago, the lowest year-over-year gain since September 2012.
“The housing market’s pulse quickened a bit in April. If the inventory grows more, which we consider likely, it’s going to make it a lot easier for sales to reach at least an average level, which we haven’t seen in more than seven years,” said DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage. “There’s still pressure on home prices, but it has moderated.”
In Los Angeles County, the median price increased 12 percent — to $441,000 from $395,000 a year earlier — and sales fell 7 percent to 6,642 properties, from 7,140 a year earlier.
In San Bernardino County, the median price increased 23 percent, to $240,000 from $195,000 a year earlier, with sales down 3 percent, to 2,434 from 2,512.
While sales displayed a bit more vigor last month, they were 17 percent below the 24,133 April average. That was 10 percentage points better than March, which itself was 27 percent below the average for that month.
…
With the fire season starting early this year, it certainly looks like southern California is heating up.
Local News
San Diego Fires: 1 Charged With Arson; Pendleton Fire Charred 15,000 Acres
10 hours ago
by John A. Moreno
Web Producer
Multiple Fires Burn in San Diego County
Evacuated Wildfire Victims Return to Devastated Homes
Authorities announced arson charges Friday as thousands of firefighters continued to battle multiple fires that were among nearly a dozen that burned more than 25,000 acres and destroyed dozens of structures in San Diego County, authorities said.
Four days after the 1,500-acre Bernardo Fire broke out southeast of Encinitas, firefighters had extinguished five separate fires despite being hampered by gusty winds, record-breaking heat and low relative humidity.
“Day 4 is a much better day than the preceding days we’ve seen, but the difficult days for San Diegans are not over,” San Diego County Supervisor Dianne Jacob said at a 1:30 p.m. news conference.
Eleven fires have burned in the county, igniting 19,826 acres, she said.
One person was charged with arson in connection with a fire in Oceanside, authorities said at the news conference.
Alberto Serrato was seen adding brush to a fire in the San Luis River bed, according to the county District Attorney Bonnie Dumanis, who said he faced up to seven years in prison.
One person was found dead Thursday evening when firefighters checked on a hot spot in a transient camp in Carlsbad, where the Poinsettia Fire had destroyed eight single-family homes and an 18-unit apartment complex.
Multiple other residences and structures were damaged in Carlsbad, which saw $10 million to $15 million in damage, Jacob said.
The Poinsettia, Highway, Freeway and the River fires were 100 percent contained by Friday morning, according to Cal Fire. The five blazes had burned a total of 945 acres.
The largest of the active blazes, the Pulgas Fire, had charred 15,000 acres as of 9 p.m. and was 40 percent contained after starting on Camp Pendleton at 3:15 p.m. Thursday, the Marine Corps said on its website.
A new fire on base, the San Mateo Fire, was at 800 acres as of 9 p.m., sending black smoke into the air and prompting new evacuation orders, according to the base’s Facebook page and its brush fire information site.
Evacuation orders remained in effect after about 1,000 were forced to flee Camps Las Pulgas, Margarita and Las Flores, and 32 Area, a Marine spokesman said. All nonessential personnel on the base were to be released as of noon due to the fires.
Jim Buchanan, a resident of Escondido, described his brush with the fast-moving Cocos Fire, which was burning south of San Marcos.
The fire “hit trees on the next ridge over, then that jumped and went to a brush pile in the middle of the green pasture there. It just exploded,” Buchanan said. “It’s real. … You just see this big orange ball coming at you. And I thought: My wife told me to be careful. It may be too late. I’m going to get out of here.”
…
Inventory is heating up just fine. Where’d all the buyers go?
I’ve certainly been able to view the weirdness that is North Seattle the past few days. Our friends across the street put their house up on Thursday. My wife was home and said that literally within 5 minutes of a sign being planted in front the first car arrived. I arrived home about 6 or so and had to park a good distance away from my usual spot because there were so many viewers. We rent for under 2000. Their house, which is indeed a little nicer than ours, is listed for 600. I assume from the traffic that they will get more. (There was an inspector out this morning so I assume an offer has already been made.) My wife asked me what we would have to do to afford that. I said she’d have to build a time machine and marry a child psychiatrist instead of a lowly psychologist. She’s a good sport about all this and laughed. I think there was a time this all would have annoyed me, but now I just shrug. My family is healthy, I love my job and I live in a nice neighborhood.
Why not put a sign on your lawn, $550k?
“We rent for under 2000.”
Oops.
home prices must be kept high so the bankers can make a lot of interest off of you.
The American “economy” depends on it.
And to protect the value of the mortgages that are backed by high-priced houses.
Plus, ironically, the higher the price rise the more attractive they become.
The price rise becomes a selling point because people are smart.
Also to protect the value of the local government services which are funded by property taxes…
Yes! Higher and higher prices will bail everyone out!
The solution to all our financial woes lies in inflation!
If only there wear some way to take heroin and not become addicted.
Imagine if ownership rates fell below 50% and people became more mobile than ever. That and the postponement by 20-somethings for marrying and starting families is “unpatriotic” in the point of view of city employees {snicker, snicker!}. The city, county, and state people need less uncertainty of the funding of their pensions.
Have a friend of a friend of a friend renting in half moon bay. The owners had bought a home in Idaho and were waiting for prices to come back up in CA. Seems they have as the last house in HMB sold in a day for asking and a day later someone offered the sellers 40K more but the deal was done. The friends out of state landlord decided to list the property and add 50K more but here’s where the fun started. The landlord came down, told the friend what belongs they wanted removed from the property and wanted the friend to help them stage the house for an up coming open house. Greed at its finest.
“Greed at its finest.”
Greed is good.
Combine unrestrained greed with lots of borrowed money and the results can get quite interesting.
and a day later someone offered the sellers 40K more but the deal was done
I doubt that this story is true. Like someone is going to give up 40k more offered the next day? Deals are easy to break.
Sounds like realtor propaganda filtered through three layers of friends. Like most of these stories, when you pin down specifics from someone who actually knows the facts all those stories start to turn to mush. Not saying there isn’t bubble craziness in some outlying places, but this sounds like BS.
“Sounds like realtor propaganda filtered through three layers of friends”
Perceptive you are.
Not saying there isn’t bubble craziness in some outlying places ??
Half Moon Bay is not a outlying place….It is within 30 minutes of a lot of the highest per capita wealth & income in the country…
It’s a cherry picked outlier in the epicenter of the biggest $hithole on the planet called California.
Exactly, not an outlier in the sense of out in the middle of nowhere, an outlier in the sense of not being representative of anything larger.
Harry Dent “Bubbles don’t correct. They burst.”
“The Chinese government simply doesn’t have a clue. Actually, no government does. They always think they can deflate bubbles slowly to ensure a soft landing.
Soft landings never occur in major bubbles.
Bubbles don’t correct. They burst.
They get so extreme — and China’s bubble is the most extreme of all — that once they start to unwind, you get an avalanche of deleveraging and defaults that build on each other.
Bubbles become black holes.”
Some quotes by Dent are good.
But that’s about all. Amazing he keeps predicting a depression “next year.” In the early 2000s he was predicting the USA will be in a great depression in 2009 or 2010.
Funny, but I had this idea that stocks drop by 90% in a great depression instead of double.
Bill, get out of equities before it’s too late.
It’s all about basis, no?
The markets are going to take a dive.
“Bill, get out of equities before it’s too late.”
LOL I never will be 100% out of equities. I never will be 100% in equities. My international stock holdings account for 26% of my stocks in all. My equties are 59% of all my assets.
Say we take a 70% hit in global stock market in general. My net worth will still be above $1,000,000.
“Say we take a 70% hit in global stock market in general. My net worth will still be above $1,000,000.”
Bill, we need to meet and talk over business. I have some ideas of just how we can protect your millions.
Maybe meet for coffee?
I’ll buy.
LOLZ Mr. Banker!
Ms. Banker once asked me if I would like to get a home loan. I think this was in February.
I did not bring my soapbox with me. If only I would’ve.
e was predicting the USA will be in a great depression in 2009 or 2010.
I must say he got that right more or less.
stocks drop by 90% in a great depression instead of double ??
Its Obama’s fault….
“Its Obama’s fault….”
No. Obama had NOTHING to do with the stock market rise.
Try again. Substitute “Bernanke” for Obama for your “progressive” sarcasm remark and I will then agree.
Hard landing? Hard for who? I just want to be able to buy a house at a price that is not grossly inflated compared to only a few years ago. Nothing has fundamentally changed during those years except the credit pimps and the abandonment of all rules. Incomes have stuck to the mat. Heck, non housing debt skyrocketed so there shouldn’t even be that money for housing.
It is a non-sustainable and dysfunctional market when half or more of a neighborhood could not afford to buy their own home.
“I just want to be able to buy a house at a price that is not grossly inflated compared to only a few years ago.”
Your dreams just may come true in Bodie, CA.
Amy said: “Bodie is ready when you are”.
https://www.google.com/search?q=bodie&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=zmt3U6nmF43coASS0oDwBw&ved=0CEkQsAQ&biw=1600&bih=805
A bit of sweat equity will turn your dream home into real equity, into solid equity - equity that you can draw upon to realize your dreams!
Don’t be left behind, visit your local banker today and make it happen!
Fresh coffee will be waiting upon your arrival. And the best part: It’s free!
Meanwhile you maintain the depreciating asset for him to repossess at a convenient time.
It’s a tough job — somebody’s gotta do it!
And that’s where the rubber meets the road. Throwing good money after bad on a depreciating asset.
Well, that’s Home Depot’s business model, right?
First you sell it to them. Then they do all the work (or pay someone to do it.) Then the bankers take it all away.
The pleasures of home-pawnership. There’s nothing like it.
Considering most people overpaid by a minimum of 200% anytime in the last 14 years, they’re ahead of the game by forfeiting.
How else do you cut your losses?
Consider this:
A borrowed dollar will buy just as much as an earned dollar. You can prove this fact the next time you decide to hand over a dollar to someone for some sort of purchase; The receiver of the dollar doesn’t care if the dollar is borrowed or if it is earned. All he cares about is whether or not it is a real dollar.
If an earned dollar will buy just as much as a borrowed dollar then one is a schmuck is he is going to depend on earning living rather than taking the much wiser choice of borrowing a living.
Earning a living limits one’s standard of living to what money he can earn. But borrowing a living does not limit one’s standard of living one bit; The only restraint placed on borrowing a living is the ability of one to acquire borrowed money.
And this is where I come into your life - I can make it happen!
You and I, working together, can make it happen!
You can borrow money from me and live the borrowed money lifestyle you deserve. You can shuck your job, shuck your meager earned money existence and live life as it was meant to be lived!
Come see me today and we - you and I - will maybe share a dream or two over a cup of coffee.
I’ll buy.
Mephistopheles.
Goethe would be proud. Very proud.
I see that the ending of Part I has been conveniently left out.
Part I involves the Truth and people cannot handle this Truth thingy so I do people a service by leaving it out.
The Truth is a burden I am willing to carry on my own on the behalf of others.
God’s work.
A borrowed dollar is future demand brought forward.
A borrowed dollar is God’s given right to Americans and don’t you forget it!
“A borrowed dollar is future demand brought forward.”
Brought forward to today means it can be spent today.
Which means an economy is not financially restricted to living on what is earned today, it also can live on what just may be earned tomorrow.
Add what is earned today to what just might be earned tomorrow and - presto! - you have just created a lot of buying power.
PFM (Pure F@cking Magic)
“They get so extreme — and China’s bubble is the most extreme of all — that once they start to unwind, you get an avalanche of deleveraging and defaults that build on each other.”
Aren’t you forgetting the inevitable bailouts and stimulus reflation efforts?
The market is booming,
but where are the buyers;
inventory is looming,
realtors are liars.
My neighbors up and down the street are all busily moving lotsa chit out into their driveways for the post-Bernardo Fire Realtor®-sponsored garage sale.
With real life humor like this, who needs comedians?
Armed visitor shoots, injures Detroit homeowner through front door
What Detroiter in their right mind would answer an 0400 knock on their door?
“What Detroiter in their right mind would answer an 0400 knock on their door?”
If they were in their right mind then they wouldn’t be a Detroiter.
Natural selection and all that.
Sympathy is not really my cup ‘o tea but when you are 76, there’s a strong possibility of other issues. Forgetfulness, dementia, etc.
Most people are still very sharp at that age but if you live in Detroit, chances are you are not firing on all cylinders.
They are fried in all cylinders.
If they were in their right mind then they wouldn’t be a Detroiter.
So the city is filled entirely by people not in their right mind? That sounds unlikely.
Have you sold your shares of Naspers Limited?
Mz. Craterton on her way to work
http://www.pak101.com/funnypictures/Funny/2011/9/20/Funnydonkeyincar_fjsxb.jpg
I need an intervention!
I am daydreaming about buying a house for cash in Carlsbad. somebody bitch slap me! Also, are Obama loans available for conservatives? Or do you have vote Dem to get one?
If I cash out of stocks to buy a home, then i’ll have to eat top raman!
Letting government change your behavior?
They’ve got you right where they want you.
Leverage you daydreams! Don’t use your own cash, use somebody else’s cash instead.
This is very easy for you to do. I should know, I do it every day.
Come see me and I will show you how.
We’ve got them all here…
Empty pockets
tirekickers
keyboard cowboys calling themselves engineers
lying realtors pretending to be architects
handymen calling themselves contractors
What do they have in common?
Amy says:
“Always be closing.”
When you pass a stranger on the street and they say it’s a nice day you should then tell them with all sincerity:
“It IS a nice day, a VERY nice day. A nice day and a good day. A good day to buy and a good day to sell. My name’s Amy and I am in the Dream Fulfilling business. People bring me their dreams and I make their dreams come true. I make all of their dream come true.”
ABC. Always Be Closing.
Never meet a stranger.
And then, for step number two, after Amy has done all the groundwork, she then brings them to me for what we like to think of as “the finishing touch”.
Life is good.
I’ve heard it said that a man’s life is not complete until he commits himself to buying a home for himself and for his family.
It’s at this point his life is finished.
When Amy brings a client to me for the signing of the dotted line it ends up that there is a lot of grinning that goes on.
Amy is grinning because she gets an immediate cut of the action. I’m grinning because I, too, get an immediate cut of the action PLUS I get a cut on the action on a monthly basis for as long as the dotted line holds sway - which may be as long as thirty years. Maybe even longer.
And (amazingly!) the client is also doing a lot of grinning - in fact he is probably out grinning the rest of us because …
(ta da)
His dreams are at last becoming fulfilled! The Great American Dream Machine has again done its magic and converted the client from a nobody of a tenant into a somebody of a homeowner.
(Or at least a somebody of a home BUYER but - shhhhhh - this is my little secret.)
Three people are at the signing-of-the-dotted-line ceremony, one is a schmuck, one is a tool, and the third one gets to cash in from what the other two have brought to him.
And the three of us are all grinning.
Life is good.
C’mon. Mr. Banker. This article is just ripe for you.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/17/your-money/paying-for-college/a-beginners-guide-to-repaying-student-loans.html
I mean they are arguing about how to make sure your payments don’t get “lost”. That’s the best part. Once they get lost, the
wastrelsclients are on the hamster wheel for the rest of their life.Of course, the payments would never, once only once, accidentally on purpose get misfiled on purpose, would they?
Naah.
This is the American way. Eyeballs in debt before you can legally get a drink at a bar.
“Eyeballs in debt before you can legally get a drink at a bar.”
+1 One can also die for their country before having a legal drink.
“… student loan expert Mark Kantrowitz, using data from lenders, estimates that between one-quarter and one-third of borrowers are late paying their first student loan bill.”
Well that sucks! Only having between one-quarter-and one-third of borrowers being late limits late-fee income. More work needs to be done in this area: A near-term goal should be, perhaps, fifty-percent late. And the ultimate goal, of course, should be one-hundred percent late.
“It can get worse as the days and years go by. Last year, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, using 2012 data from the credit bureau Equifax, determined that 35 percent of people under 30 who were supposed to be making student loan payments each month were actually 90 or more days delinquent.”
Well it looks as if there is progress being made after all. I suppose it does help a bit to have the Will Of God on one’s side.
“Whatever the numbers, they add up to a normalization of tardiness that can damage the credit scores of young adults.”
Oh no! We can’t have their credit scores damaged! Think of what that would do to their self esteem! After all, you are what your FICO says you are.
“And one big reason it’s happening is the fact that many among the indebted simply aren’t sure how many loans they have, how and when to pay them back correctly and how to find and use programs for people who can’t afford the full payments.”
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahaha Our top quality educational system at work:
Step 1: Dumb them down.
Step 2: Send them to me.
Bahahahahahahahahahahahaha
“Let us pause for a moment to state the plain fact that the entire college financing system is a national disgrace.”
Yeah, but it does quite well working as a profit center.
“College costs are high, universities don’t counsel undergraduates well enough, families get in over their heads, there are too many types of loans, the repayment options are dizzying, and lenders and the companies that collect the payments are sometimes bad actors.”
So I suppose you are now going to inform us of the downside?
“But this column exists for the far-from-ideal world we have to live in today, one where if the trend lines that the New York Fed has outlined continue, half of all 25-year-olds who have credit reports will have student loan debt in a couple of years. This week, we’re introducing a new student loan calculator. It can tell you what the average student loan debt is at schools.”
That’s the answer, a STUDENT LOAN CALCULATOR! For a moment I thought you were going to scare the sh1t out of me and tell us you were going to do something really stupid, really destructive to my finances such as LOWERING PRICES.
Bahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahha
I especially love to warmly bathe in and relish the concept that has been so widely accepted throughout our society of the oh-so-important high credit scores people MUST HAVE in order to get a good paying job or a security clearance or whatever because putting pressure on credit scores puts pressure on borrowers of money to pay back what money that has been borrowed.
They may not want to do this but they will have to do so anyway IF a high credit score gets them a good paying job and a low credit score doesn’t. This is another element in the Game Of Gotcha that heavily works in my favor.
And, oh, I almost forgot …
Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahha
Happy graduation cartoon.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-17/happy-graduation-1-sad-cartoon
Eyeballs in debt before you can legally get a drink at a bar
Awesome!
What is a pimp slap?
If You Are Doing Nothing Wrong You Have PLENTY to Fear – 30 Examples
Doug Newman
foodforthethinkers.com
May 17, 2014
Sometimes I just want to pimp slap people.
Last summer, I was at dinner during a sales convention. The conversation didn’t get political until someone mentioned the NSA.
There is one in every crowd. Someone piped up and said, “They can spy on me all they want. I am not doing anything wrong.”
They sang this song in Germany in 1933. And they sang it with unprecedented gusto in the months following 9/11, all in the name of “security” and “keeping us safe”.
We were at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, the world’s second largest hotel. Nothing in the post-9/11 “national security” apparatus would prevent a terrorist from walking in, setting off a bomb, and killing hundreds or even thousands of people.
The more important questions are: How do you know you are doing nothing that could be construed as wrong by some state functionary? How do you know you are not breaking some law somewhere? And why are you so implicitly trusting that your government would never do anything evil with the information it has collected on you?
This is not purely an academic matter. The practical implications are profound.
I give you several examples.
1. Niakea Williams went to her son’s St. Louis-area elementary school one day to pick up her son, who has Asperger’s. The school was put on lockdown and Mrs. Williams was escorted out in handcuffs.
2. Adrionna Harris was almost expelled from her middle school in Virginia Beach after taking a razor blade away from a fellow student who was trying to harm himself.
3. Read what Houston police did to this man who gave 75 cents to a homeless person.
4. A little known Denver parking ordinance can get you a $25 fine even if you haven’t exceeded the two-hour limit.
5. Police in Iowa City, Iowa, seized $50,000 from this couple without charging them with a crime.
6. Alberto Willmore lost his teaching job in Manhattan over a totally bogus marijuana arrest. Even though he was never convicted of anything, he was unable to get his job back.
7. Norman Gurley was arrested in Lorain County, Ohio, because a compartment in his car could have been used to transport drugs.
8. Los Angeles County sheriff’s deputies shot and killed 80-year-old Eugene Mallory in his own bed during a meth raid. No meth, or any other illegal drugs, was discovered.
9. Paul Valin contacted police to report that he found a backpack full of what he believed to be meth-making equipment 15 miles from his home near Des Moines. As a result, the DEA placed his house on its list of meth labs.
10. Ryan Holle of Pensacola, Florida, lent his roommate his car on night in 2004. As a result, Holle is currently serving a life sentence without possibility of parole for pre-meditated murder.
11. New York police seized Gerald Bryan’s cash in a nighttime raid in 2012. Even though Bryan was cleared of any wrongdoing, the stolen cash was deposited in the NYPD pension fund.
12. Robert Duncan is currently serving two years in a California prison, even though the business in which he worked was legal in California.
13. Jordan Wiser spent 13 days in jail after Jefferson, Ohio, police found a pocketknife during a warrantless search of his car.
14. During a school lockdown in Clarksville, Tennessee, David Duren-Sanner gave police permission to search his car as he had “nothing to hide”. Police found a fishing knife. Duren-Sanner, who previously had never been to the principal’s office, was suspended for 10 days and then sent to an alternative school for 90 days.
15. Look what happened to these parents in Napa, California, even though the medical marijuana prescriptions they had were completely legal.
16. Eileen Ann Bower of suburban Pittsburgh had her newborn child taken from her for 75 days because of a false positive drug test.
17. Jerry Hartfield of Bay City, Texas, has spent the majority of his life in prison, even though his conviction was overturned in 1980.
18. Jason Dewing of update New York was found guilty of violating a law that did not exist.
19. Don Miller of Waldron, Indiana, had his home raided by FBI agents who seized hundreds of cultural artifacts from around the world. Miller was neither arrested nor charged with anything.
20. This San Diego couple was pepper-sprayed and tasered by police who had erroneously identified their vehicle after being stolen.
21. The good news is that Brian Aitken of Mount Laurel, New Jersey, had his prison sentence commuted. The bad news is that he was originally sentenced to seven years behind bars for possessing two legally purchased guns.
22. This special needs student in McDonald, Pennsylvania, was charged with felony wiretapping for recording other students who were bullying him mercilessly.
23. Abner Schoenwetter of Miami served over six years in prison for – you can’t make this stuff up – violating Honduran fisheries law.
24. Read what happened to John Filippidis of Hudson, Florida, when he was pulled over by state police while driving unarmed through Maryland.
25. In a case of mistaken identity, Lewis James of Durham, North Carolina, “was handcuffed and later jailed under a $1.425 million bond” after he had contacted the police to notify them of a dead body in the middle of the road. As someone put it on Facebook, “Don’t call the cops. Ever. Even if you find a dead body. Just don’t ever call the cops.”
26. Read what happened to Diane Avera of Meridian, Mississippi, when she went to Alabama to buy Sudafed, even though she did not know that this was illegal.
27. Andy Johnson of Uinta County, Wyoming, faces EPA fines of $75,000 per day for building a pond on land that he owns.
28. Douglas Zerby of Long Beach was shot and killed by police while watering his lawn because some idiot neighbor thought the hose nozzle was a gun.
29. Darien Roseen was arrested and had his vehicle searched by sheriff’s deputies in Payette County, Idaho, simply because his Colorado license plates led them to believe that he could have been carrying marijuana.
30. Brian Banks of Long Beach spent five years in prison and five more years as a registered sex offender as a result of a rape conviction. And then his accuser changed her story.
These are not “isolated incidents.” There are no doubt countless other examples of people who were doing nothing wrong, yet were harshly punished.
Also, consider the following:
• The Internal Revenue Code is 73,955 pages and millions of words long. No one has read it cover-to-cover and no one knows every aspect of it. Yet if anyone violates any of its provisions it can mean fines, prison or even death.
• We are often told that “ignorance of the law is no defense.” To the right is a picture of the Yale Law Library. Do you know every law contained within these tomes?
•Read what various emissaries of the Amerikan police state have done to these veterans who went all over the world to “fight for our freedom.”
• Seventy-two types of Americans are classified as terrorists in various government documents. Senator Harry Reid has now added a seventy-third category.
• Read how police have used asset forfeiture laws to seize millions of dollars from people without charging them with any crimes.
•Read this list of eight ways people commit felonies without even knowing it.
• Read this article and pay special attention to these words from former NSA official William Binney: “The problem is, if they think they’re not doing anything that’s wrong, they don’t get to define that. The central government does.”
• Read how the Innocence Project has helped exonerate over 300 wrongfully imprisoned people, many of whom were on death row.
• Attorney Harvey Silverglate argues that the average American commits three felonies a day without even knowing it.
• This Ford executive claims that, thanks to GPS, “we know everyone who breaks the law.”
• Although it has been estimated that there are over 3000 types of federal criminal offenses, no one knows the exact number for sure.
So, do you still feel you have nothing to fear?
http://www.infowars.com/…/ - 78k -
“We were at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, the world’s second largest hotel. Nothing in the post-9/11 “national security” apparatus would prevent a terrorist from walking in, setting off a bomb, and killing hundreds or even thousands of people.”
Please review U.S. middle-east policies and blind indifference to gross civilian population abuses by our beneficiaries.
Reading the liner notes of Ziggy Stardust and the Spiders From Mars:
“This record to be played at maximum volume”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhNPeiy-MeU
http://picpaste.com/pics/65ef20604480493f743115f137e24034.1400381125.png
Awesome!
This Is What Happens When You Leave A Tank Parked On A City Street In Ukraine
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/17/2014
As Jalopnik reports, a BMP light tank was reportedly left stalled on a city street near Mariupol… A gassed-up, fully-loaded tank. Ready to roll. Ready to obliterate some separatists. This is what happened next…
Forward to around 46 seconds for when he finds the big red “Fire” button…
http://www.zerohedge.com/…/what-happens-when-you-leave-tank-parked-city-street-ukraine - 108k -
18 May 2014 Last updated at 05:52 ET
Ukraine approaching point of no return, says UN chief
Ukraine is edging towards “the point of no return”, a senior UN official says, amid rising tensions between security forces and pro-Russia separatists.
UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights Ivan Simonovic told the BBC that the crisis had worrying echoes of the 1990s war in his native Croatia.
Reports from eastern Ukraine say clashes between government forces and separatist militants have continued.
The separatists have not taken part in EU-brokered talks to defuse the crisis.
Overnight, attacks in the east wounded four Ukrainian servicemen, the ministry of defence in Kiev was quoted as saying by Ukrainian media.
Separatist militants are said to have attacked a military camp near the city of Izyum, in Kharkiv region, and four checkpoints near Sloviansk in Donetsk region.
On Saturday, the separatists appointed a prime minister for what they call the People’s Republic of Donetsk.
Ivan Simonovic UN Assistant Secretary General for Human Rights
The man, Alexandr Borodai, said the self-proclaimed entity would apply to join Russia.
The separatists have taken control of government buildings across cities in south-eastern and southern Ukraine.
Violence between the two sides has left dozens of people dead in recent weeks.
A new Ukrainian president is due to be elected on 25 May.
Mr Simonovic told the BBC: “What I’m really afraid is that country is approaching to a point of no return if there is no adequate and urgent action taken.”
The UN says it has documented countless incidents of abduction, torture and murder in south and eastern Ukraine.
…