May 19, 2014

Bits Bucket for May 19, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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97 Comments »

Comment by IE LANDLORD KING
2014-05-19 01:23:02

Is housing coming back? We’ll get a hint this week

Jim Iuorio of TJM Institutional Services thinks the housing market is actually better than some fear, but adds that for him and many others, “any kind of recovery we have to talk about has to include housing, or else it’s not worth its salt.”

Clemons uses a psychological argument to explain housing’s outsized impact.

“The reason housing is so important is that it is the primary driver of wealth for so many people in this country,” Clemons said. “It goes to the question of, ‘Do I feel wealthier or not?’ The answer to that impacts my personal consumption. And personal consumption is 70 percent of GDP. So that linkage explains why the housing market is so important.”

full story here
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101673303?__source=yahoo%7Cfinance%7Cheadline%7Cheadline%7Cstory&par=yahoo&doc=101673303%7CIs%20housing%20coming%20back?%20W

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-05-19 07:15:03

Depreciating asset in 90% of America = single family home

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 07:18:51

“The reason housing is so important is that it is the primary driver of wealth for so many people in this country,”

Primary drivers can drive wealth down as well as up.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 07:22:34

That would be great if it were true.

The reality is housing is a driver of losses for the end user.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-05-19 08:02:16

Day one: $60,000 in the bank.

Day two: Buy house. Nothing in the bank. $250,000 in debt. $30,000 in the hole and counting.

‘Do I feel wealthier or not?’

2014-05-19 08:16:55

Of course, you do. You own a house now. Everyone knows that you should just ignore the “liabilities” part of the balance sheet.

It’s the American way.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 08:29:21

You mean my $50k 401k won’t offset the $250k price I paid plus the $200k in interest charges plus $200k losses to maintenance and depreciation plus $120k insurance and property tax charges for 30 years?

 
2014-05-19 08:48:57

Of course it will. Just like you never count the “liabilities” on the balance sheet, you never count the “expenses” on the income statement. That way it all works out correctly.

It’s the American way.

Plus, you have the pride of pawnership which is priceless so you have to add that back into the “assets” part.

 
 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-05-19 08:12:37

Owning a SFH creates wealth for the bankers, furniture manufacturer, appliance manufacturer, and gives city and county thugernment more confidence to raise more taxes from the owner. The owner is the only one who loses wealth, in more than 90% of residential real estate.

 
 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-05-19 11:25:46

I don’t really care how “important” housing is to someone’s net worth, house prices above and beyond what people can “afford” based upon wages are NOT sustainable. It’s THAT simple.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 02:47:27

A house is a horrible store of value and besides selling, there is no way to extract that value without committing financial suicide.”

Exactly.

Comment by mathguy
2014-05-19 11:45:42

You know I normally agree with you HA, but you should stay on message. The value of the house is equivalent to an alternative use of funds that would generate an equivalent rent. When houses are built at $55/sq ft, owners can afford to rent out their properties for less money, and housing prices fall as people choose to save money by renting instead of buying, lowering demand.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 11:59:26

Hence the reason there are millions of underwater homedebtors and cash flow negative accidental landlords.

 
 
 
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-05-19 02:53:01

Compressed Natural Gas - Large fleet fuel of the future.

Clean Energy Fuels, the leading supplier of natural gas for use in delivery and heavy-duty trucks, jumped 11 percent in one day after a long slump in which investors were questioning its business model.

“We’re at the very beginning of a major shift to natural gas for trucking – a shift that could take a decade before the growth slows – and Clean Energy Fuels is the leader in the market,” added Jason Hall of
Motley Fool, who had been skeptical of the company in the past but is now turning enthusiastic

Clean Energy Fuels has delivered 800 million gallons of CNG and LNG to light- and heavy-duty trucks.

The company has build approximately 500 fueling stations across the country.

It has installed over 1,500 compressors for delivering CNG to vehicles worldwide.

It has two LNG production plants.

It has 60 LNG tankers making 5,000 deliveries every year.

It has two renewable natural gas plants producing bio-methane.

It has 39 major airport fueling stations.

It now fuels over 35,000 trucks, large and small, with CNG each day.

As you can see, this is no fly-by-night operation. Whether the company is profitable or not right now, Pickens is obviously in it for the long haul.

http://www.google.com/gwt/n?u=http://www.fuelfreedom.org/blog/what-energy-futures-demise-means-for-energy-transitions/

So, where the mileage you get on a tank of fuel has been a limiting factor in their use, this company is establishing the infrastructure that’ll allow the conversion to be made. Compressing and liquefying the fuel will also allow the natural gas to be exported, which could be helpful for Europe and other countries.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:17:34

I woke up this morning with Keynesian beauty contests on my mind. Who will be the eventual winners in the porcine beauty contest set up by last week’s momentous change of course on the GSEs?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:33:25

Will the bears ever get their stock market call right?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:34:49

Google, Wall Street’s worst trade and when a crash pays off big
May 19, 2014, 6:37 AM ET
By Shawn Langlois

The small-cap disconnect. Stubbornly low interest rates. The lack of volatility. If these were songs, Katy Perry would be singing them. They’ve been on loop for weeks now. Can’t escape them. Or, really, figure out how they could possibly last this long.

And with the confusion, bears are getting edgier with each passing day that doesn’t deliver the satisfying plunge. They’re finding some validation in the fact that so many of the underlying issues are getting pounded — but no, the constant reminders of record highs on the major indexes are a real source of aggravation.

The odd triple-digit dip isn’t cutting it. They want blood.

Just read the gurgling frustration between the lines of John Hussman’s latest post. The staunch bear basically says he’s changing his guidance, not for his supportive audience, but for those lippy bastards (my words) who choose to talk smack.

“I am retracting all of it herewith – for you alone, mind you – and I leave you free to buy with both hands to whatever extent you are inclined,” the former University of Michigan professor and current fund manager said. “So the more you dislike my work, and particularly if you are nasty about it, I have no objection to you accumulating – perhaps on margin – as much stock from other investors as possible.”

Somebody’s been getting some hate mail. Been there.

Comment by cactus
2014-05-19 08:48:21

So the more you dislike my work, and particularly if you are nasty about it, I have no objection to you accumulating – perhaps on margin – as much stock from other investors as possible.”

Yikes ! They can buy some of mine. Re balanced my 401k from 100% S&P to 60 -40 mix S&P and Treasuries.

Big switch but its been overdue I don’t need 100% S&P.

 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 13:52:32

This reminds me of all the advice that trolls used to get on this board. “Buy ten,” we would say. “Then buy more.” And just look what happened to all of them. They live under a bridge now, which is similar to their predictions for the futures of all renters.

See how that works out?

 
 
Comment by azdude
2014-05-19 05:56:11

I have been a bear regarding stocks for 6 years. I see no real recovery and when you look at revenue are businesses really growing?

The whole stock recovery has been on the back of the FED manipulating the market. One big propoganda blitz.

I just dont see any growth around here.

I would rather invest money in my own business.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 06:09:04

“I would rather invest money in my own business.”

It’s great if you have that kind of faith in yourself.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-05-19 08:25:45

I have been a bear regarding stocks for 6 years. I see no real recovery and when you look at revenue are businesses really growing?

My employer’s sales are growing, as are its profits (~10B). But at raise time money is too tight to mention.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-05-19 14:24:31

Do you think you matter or something? Get back to work you miserable runt, or they’ll just hire somebody else.

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Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-05-19 09:22:00

Sorry you had it backwards. You should have bet with the Keynesian Fed. But now is a good time to be neutral, realize gains, build up cash. I have so much cash from staying out of real estate that I don’t know what to do with it.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:35:49

Is it safe to assume the U.S. economy can do just fine without housing?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:38:19

May 19, 2014, 8:21 a.m. EDT
Economy builds momentum without housing boost
See-sawing sales in key industry could be drag chute on U.S. growth
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The case for faster U.S. growth in the second half of 2014 largely depends on a broad improvement in the economy, but the housing market remains in danger of falling behind.

Many economists believe home sales and construction will rebound after a recent lull. Housing starts jumped 13.2% in April, for example, and Wall Street predicts that sales of new and previously owned homes will also spring back in April.

Yet even if the housing industry continues to lag, they say, the economy is poised to expand more rapidly anyway. They cite an upsurge in hiring, stronger manufacturing growth and an expected acceleration in business investment.

“It’s not going to be any one thing. It’s going to be a number of things,” said Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services, whose firm is forecasting a heady 4% growth rate in the final six months of 2014.

A smaller number of analysts are skeptical housing will contribute much to overall U.S. growth in 2014 . Like a drag chute on a race car, they believe, it might even significantly slow the economy down. Top Federal Reserve officials are also more worried about the housing market.

The pair of reports on home sales are the highlights on a light economic calendar. The Federal Reserve will also release details of its last big meeting in April and a handful of the nation’s top central bankers will share their views on the economy this week.

Aside from housing, Wall Street pros don’t expect the minutes to yield any juicy tidbits on what the Fed will do next. The minutes will be released Wednesday.

The home front

The slowdown in sales of new and existing homes starting last summer has puzzled many economists. While mortgage rates have risen almost a full percentage point over the past year, they remain historically very low. What’s more, economists have been expecting rising employment and pent-up demand to push home sales steadily higher.

The disappointing level of sales has spawned a number of explanations. Some say soaring student-loan debt has strait-jacketed many young couples. Read: Student loans preventing millennials from buying homes

Others such as chief economist Lindsey Piegza of Sterne Agee emphasize a spike in home prices that’s made it much harder to afford a home, especially for workers whose salaries have not kept pace. Piegza said prices will have to cool or lenders will have to ease borrowing rules to help more people buy a home.

In April, sales of existing homes are forecast to climb to a 4.65 million rate from 4.59 million in March. Although they are now one-third above a post-recession low, existing home sales are still 37% below the all-time peak achieved nine years ago. The National Association of Realtors releases the April sales report on Thursday.

New home sales have also leveled off after steady three-year rise. They sold at a 434,000 annual rate in the first quarter, down from 446,000 in the fourth quarter. By contrast, new home sales totaled a whopping 1.28 million in 2005. The new-home sales report comes out Friday.

By one measure, the health of the housing market probably shouldn’t have an outsized effect on U.S. growth. After all, investment in residential housing only accounted for 3.1% of the U.S. economy in 2013, down from 5.5% in 2003.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:54:13

May 19, 2014
Mortgages are cheap, but shoppers aren’t splurging

Low mortgage rates have cut the cost of borrowing, driving down the interest that Americans pay on home loans to the slowest pace in almost 14 years. But that doesn’t mean that families are splurging. And despite a run-up in home prices over the past year, few are pulling cash out of their homes and credit-card debt is continuing to tumble.

Memories of the financial meltdown may be haunting some consumers, including those who have managed to refinance into cheaper loans. And then there’s the labor market, which is adding jobs too slowly to inspire much confidence in workers or to make a substantial dent in the share of long-term jobless workers .

Mortgage-interest payments dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $381 billion in the first quarter — the lowest tally since the third quarter of 2000, according to U.S. Commerce Department data. The first quarter’s rate was down 36% from a peak pace of $594 billion at the end of 2007.

 
Comment by azdude
2014-05-19 06:15:38

no housing is the lifeblood of the economy. Home prices must go up for the bankers to keep making lots of money off of people.

Why dont we eliminate the middlemen bankers from the loan process and let people get no interest loans from unlce sam? This would be a big stimulus to consumers.

The bankers have the people by the balls. You pay them interest or basically you dont get a house.

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-05-19 06:33:43

“The bankers have the people by the balls. You pay them interest or basically you dont get a house.”

And because there are so many people willing to play our game you end up with high prices for houses, prices that are so high that in order to get one you have to play our game.

There’s a positive, reinforcing feedback loop going on that can be enormously profitable for those who are in a position to tap into it.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 07:19:59

Low interest rates + high housing prices = high interest payments.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 06:39:42

“No interest loans from Uncle Sam”

Why even bother getting Uncle Sam into the mix when Uncle Fed could do it just fine flying solo?

 
Comment by oxide
2014-05-19 08:03:07

Why dont we eliminate the middlemen bankers from the loan process and let people get no interest loans from uncle sam?

Because private industry does everything more efficiently than government bureaucrats ever will. :roll:

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:52:06

Can the U.S. Justice Department bring charges against members of the Chinese Army?

Not that I don’t like the concept…

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 05:53:09

May 19, 2014, 7:55 a.m. EDT
DoJ to charge 5 in Chinese army with hacking U.S. firms
First public cybercrime charges against employees of foreign state
By Devlin Barrett

The Justice Department plans to announce charges against individuals in the Chinese military, accusing them of hacking U.S. companies for trade secrets, the first time the U.S. government has publicly accused employees of a foreign power with cybercrimes against American firms, according to people familiar with the matter.

The move to charge five individuals who allegedly worked for the People’s Liberation Army to hack into U.S. company systems marks a major escalation of the fight with China over such intrusions. U.S. government officials have long complained that China aggressively targets U.S. companies for trade secrets that would give Chinese companies a competitive advantage–a charge China has denied, saying such accusations have no basis in fact.

Attorney General Eric Holder and senior Federal Bureau of Investigation officials plan to announce the charges Monday morning, these people said.

The charges are to be filed against five people who allegedly worked for a part of the People’s Liberation Army known as Unit 61398 in Shanghai, these people said. The hackers allegedly stole some of the design information for a nuclear power plant, as well as cost and pricing information from a solar panel firm, these people said.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2014-05-19 09:30:18

What a joke. The Chinese don’t need to hack anything, not when every US business is giving info/technology away, in an attempt to get a piece of the giant, fairy tale, “1.5 billion consumers in China” rainbow.

Comment by cactus
2014-05-19 09:33:15

You got that right

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 05:57:43

How about the Free $hit Army High Command?

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 06:51:02

Why is the DOJ filing suit on behalf of US corps? Oh, wait…

 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 06:16:29

I like the concept, too, but given the actions of the NSA, isn’t it a bit like the pot calling the kettle black?

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 06:30:01

My take is that this has more to do with the China-Vietnam-Taiwan-Philippines territorial waters conflict. Sort of a weak gambit. If Washington were really serious, they’d cut off diplomatic relations with China, repatriate the manufacturing facilities and jobs, confiscate US property belonging to Chinese nationals, order all Chinese nationals out of the US, etc.

Seems to be that Washington is caught in some weird position in between globalization and nationalism. I guess, globalization is not going quite the way TPTB thought it would. In other words, globalization would have been great as long as Washington and Wall Street (Wallington) was calling the shots.

 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-05-19 08:38:13

They’re going after a safe target. Foreign and amorphous. No concerns about losing donations. Little chance of really angering China, as they know this is for domestic consumption to give the impression of action and effectiveness. This kind of thing is much easier than rooting out deep-seated corruption here (and angering future employers, risking the gravy train).

No chance of extradition, no desire to anger the world’s 2nd largest economy and one of the largest US creditors. Summary: Ineffectual act designed to serve as political theater.

 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 13:37:33

This must mean that China’s economy is becoming less useful to the the United States.

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 06:10:04

Hope and Change linked from Drudge

“With border authorities in South Texas overwhelmed by a surge of young illegal migrants traveling by themselves, the Department of Homeland Security declared a crisis this week and moved to set up an emergency shelter for the youths at an Air Force base in San Antonio, officials said Friday.

The children are coming primarily from El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, making the perilous journey north through Mexico to Texas without parents or close adult relatives. Last weekend alone, more than 1,000 unaccompanied youths were being held at overflowing border stations in South Texas, officials said.”

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/17/us/us-sets-up-crisis-shelter-as-children-flow-across-border-alone.html

Permanent Democrat Supermajority

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 06:58:27

As one columnist suggested, the solution is simple: hand these youths over to the embassies of the countries from which they originated.

Note also that this is a method of birth control for the parents, just sending their kids away. On a long journey.

Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 08:08:14

Why don’t the limousine liberals and chamber of commerce republicans who are pimping the scamnesty just adopt all of these children?

 
 
 
Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-05-19 06:16:54

I never realized that one of the Koch Brothers was a vice presidential candidates for the libertarians. I also never realized that the Koch Brothers lived in rent-controlled apartments in NYC (albeit VERY nice rent-controlled apartments).
———————————–

Quixotic ’80 Campaign Gave Birth to Kochs’ Powerful Network

By NICHOLAS CONFESSOREMAY 17, 2014

He backed the full legalization of abortion and the repeal of laws that criminalized drug use, prostitution and homosexuality. He attacked campaign donation limits and assailed the Republican star Ronald Reagan as a hypocrite who represented “no change whatsoever from Jimmy Carter and the Democrats.”

It was 1980, and the candidate was David H. Koch, a 40-year-old bachelor living in a rent-stabilized apartment in New York City. Mr. Koch, the vice-presidential nominee for the Libertarian Party, and his older brother Charles, one of the party’s leading funders, were mounting a long-shot assault on the fracturing American political establishment.

The Kochs had invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in the burgeoning libertarian movement. In the waning days of the 1970s, in the wake of Watergate, Vietnam and a counterculture challenging traditional social mores, they set out to test just how many Americans would embrace what was then a radical brand of politics.

It was the first and only bid for high office by a Koch family member. But much of what occurred in that quixotic campaign shaped what the Kochs have become today — a formidable political and ideological force determined to remake American politics, driven by opposition to government power and hostility to restrictions on money in campaigns.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/05/18/us/politics/quixotic-80-campaign-gave-birth-to-kochs-powerful-network.html?hp&_r=0

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 06:52:35

Liberace!

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 06:53:38

Liberace!

 
Comment by Riley Kilo
2014-05-19 07:17:26

Why do people call you Liberace?

Comment by polly
2014-05-19 07:59:26

Because they have the emotional maturity of 7th graders.

Also, Joe mentioned a harpsichord once.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 08:02:04

No he didn’t. Correct your notes.

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Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 08:15:02

Joe posted this article titled “My wife hasn’t wanted sex since her mastectomy. So I ended up sleeping with a man” several months ago, and has also posted about looking for a studio apartment in Dupont Circle

http://www.slate.com/articles/life/dear_prudence/2013/09/dear_prudence_my_wife_no_longer_likes_sex_after_cancer_treatment_so_i_cheated.html

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Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-05-19 08:22:35

The harpsichord comment came from RAL. I mentioned going to the symphony.

I don’t know exactly why RAL came up with the Liberace comment. All I know is I’m living in his rent-controlled head like a Koch Brother.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 08:31:26

Check your notes too Liberace. ;)

 
2014-05-19 09:37:16

Wasn’t there a movie or something?

 
 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 06:22:39

hmmm…. a raft of new 4 sale signs appeared over the weekend in CT. From my observations, at least half the signs are posted on houses that sold 2010-2012.

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 13:29:03

It’s so bizarre. Movoto is showing that Phoenix inventory is down for the month, and prices are still going up, but realtoRs everywhere are complaining that too many sellers are holding out for prices that they can’t get, and I see stuff sitting forever.

My only explanation is that maybe the high-end stuff is selling, but not the low end???

Comment by MrsLolaSoros
2014-05-19 15:24:16

Phoenix inventory down? Maybe you need to check that again.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 16:41:21
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 17:33:04

It is down for the month. It’s about flat right now.

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Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 17:38:02

On the other hand, Movoto also shows asking prices leveling out on a per square foot basis. Down 1% m/o/m for condos.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 17:48:57
 
Comment by MrsLolaSoros
2014-05-19 19:55:37

It is down for the month. It’s about flat right now.

So after skyrocketing up it is now flat for a month? That’s stuff just sitting until someone cuts price and the rest chase the market down again. Woohoo.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 06:32:33

“With a net worth at nearly $40 billion, (Sheldon) Adelson may be the Republican Party’s most influential donor. He is known for his devotion to Israel, in addition to an aggressive foreign policy.”

http://news.yahoo.com/christie-calls-more-aggressive-foreign-policy-005146068–election.html

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 06:55:54

Forget it, the repub party is soooo over.

Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 07:01:28

It will be at least a decade before they are stick-a-fork-in-it over.

After which, voters will have the “choice” of voting for the Free Sh*t Army or the More Free Sh*t Army.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 07:51:56

Naw, they’re already in zombie mode, with Karl Rove getting trashed by the NY Daily News and Romney, who as far as I know, holds no political office, and is just a private citizen, calling out some old geezer cop in New Hampshire for slurring Biggie O. “Calling for” his resignation. I like that term “calling for”. I’m “calling for” irrelevant Romney to STFU.

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Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 08:29:56

I think Romney wants to run again. If at first you don’t succeed and all that. Seriously. I guess one arse whuppin’ from Rove wasn’t enough.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-05-19 15:36:53

I can’t see anything objectionable in Romney’s statement.


Mitt Romney calls on N.H. police official to resign

Former GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney is calling for the resignation of a New Hampshire police commissioner who used a racial slur in describing President Barack Obama.
The former Massachusetts governor joins political leaders and residents in the New Hampshire town of Wolfeboro in asking Robert Copeland to step down.
Romney owns a home in Wolfeboro. He says in a statement, ‘‘The vile epithet used and confirmed by the commissioner has no place in our community: He should apologize and resign.’’
A resident says she overheard the 82-year-old Copeland use a slur a restaurant and wrote to the town manager. Copeland acknowledged using the slur and says he will not apologize.
Officials say resignation is the only way to get Copeland out of office before his three-year term expires.

http://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2014/05/19/mitt-romney-calls-police-chief-resign/sGA88nElmlwCuUO3n8QpvM/story.html

 
 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 08:35:59

How are Republicans not members of the FSA?

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Comment by j-j-j-joe
2014-05-19 08:29:26

GOP might actually have a slightly better showing in the next 2-3 cycles because in the short term whites are still the majority in most places and because House seats are very gerrymandered, so they can shift enough old white voters around for the next decade to keep things interesting. Plus, the whole thing with all states having equal senate representation, whether they have populations <1 million or 20 million.

In the long run, GOP can’t keep making the same policy arguments or they really will be done.

But the big idea is, the GOP seems likely to do some things in the short term to maximize gains in ‘14-’18 that could look really foolish down the road. And even if you get a congressional majority for a few years, if you don’t achieve anything with it, it’s hard to see the point for normal people. Of course, the donors are the ones who benefit anyway.

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 08:35:14

I don’t think the repubs are going to do anywhere near as well as they think, even in the short term. As soon as they trotted out Karl Rove, there was the first shot to the foot. Plus they keep holding amnesty over the heads of the faithful like the sword of Damocles.

Donors don’t benefit unless their candidates get elected, but when you have folks like Sheldon Adelson playing both sides, it’s a pretty good hedge. Adelson is a full on liberal. He’s just toying with the reps because he can. What a hoot!

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 06:41:08

Is the Treasury rally destined to end any day now?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-05-19 06:42:32

El-Erian: Treasury rally should end as central banks spark animal spirits
May 19, 2014, 8:59 AM ET

The drop in 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR -0.91%) yields last week to the lowest level since October has defied nearly all expectations, making investors nervous and a touch giddy as they try to plot the path forward. But Mohamed El-Erian says the factors driving interest rates down have built-in self-correction mechanisms that should eventually push yields higher.

In a commentary in the Financial Times Monday, the Allianz chief economic adviser and former Pimco CEO plays Wall Street’s favorite parlor game: explaining the Treasury rally. Here are El-Erian’s three reasons:

1) Concerns slow growth in the U.S. and Europe that have led to fears about consumer and wholesale prices rising too tepidly, or a slide into “lowflation” in his terminology.

2) Central banks that want to support growth as best they can, which means continuing to adopt accommodative monetary policies. The European Central Bank is expected to enact easing measures next month, and the U.S. Federal Reserve continues to reassure markets that it won’t tighten policy too soon.

3) Technical positioning of investors exacerbated the yield movements. Traders shorted the market thinking yields would rise, but were caught on the wrong side of the trade. That led to “market stops, forcing them to buy bonds to limit their mounting losses.”

 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 08:33:52

How can treasuries rally when the stock market always goes up?

 
 
Comment by goon squad
Comment by MightyMike
2014-05-19 10:04:35

That’s another great link, goon. I was curious about what Holder actually said, so I clicked on the infowars link only to find that the article comes from Breitbart. So I go to the Breitbart page and I have to get rid an annoyling pop-up for asking for my email address with the caption “You deserve the truth!”. After I get rid of that, I see that the truth is available in a link to a Washingon Post article.

Then I searched for the words “quite prejudice” in Holder’s remarks and found the following:

…talking forthrightly about these difficult issues – and building a constructive and inclusive national dialogue – will not by itself be sufficient to address them. But it’s a necessary first step that must lead to action. Our most serious and systemic challenges are too often dismissed, or oversimplified, or blamed on politics. But we do ourselves and our great nation a grave disservice whenever we reach for easy answers or revert to stale talking points; whenever we fall victim to old paradigms and traditional habits of thought; and whenever we trade the noisy discord of honest, tough, and vigorous debate for the quiet prejudice of inaction – and the cold silence of consent.

It’s another great day for the right wing media industrial complex (RWMIC)

forward

Comment by polly
2014-05-19 10:57:49

Darn those facts.

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 11:08:56

Another great day for the Media/Academia Race Hustlers Industrial Complex™

Forward

 
 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 07:07:26

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-15 08:38:19

“Never get between a cat and its boy.”

Comment by Bill, just South of Irvine
2014-05-19 07:20:41

I am still laughing about that video!

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 07:24:55

Best. Animal Video. Ever.

 
 
Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 07:27:05

“Never get between a cat and its boy.”

Come to think of it, shortly after I made that comment, Kitty Litter showed up with claws out, after a long absence. Lol.

2014-05-19 07:54:43

Correlation doesn’t imply causation. :-)

Comment by jose canusi
2014-05-19 08:23:29

You little dickens, you.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 08:31:38

I ordered some awesome work-type sandals from Nordstrom, and now all the ads on Ben’s blog are for Nordstrom sandals. I need someone to give me good reasons not to buy more sandals. I want to buy like ten more pairs!

2014-05-19 09:04:55

Two comments:

[1] Work-type sandals are an oxymoron unless you are Jeff Bridges in the The Big Lebowski. Also, you admit to buying them? :-)

[2] Clear the cookies in your browser. The ads will disappear.

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 13:23:04

You misunderstood. I said “from Nordstrom”. There is now a Bridgeport boot ad, so I guess the problem is solved.

Comment by Muggy
2014-05-19 18:38:49

“There is now a Bridgeport boot”

Make sure they have straps, so you can pull yourself up.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-05-19 08:56:52

In what zip code in the USA could you get a 500% gain on a house in two years? I sold more shares of my former company stock this morning and got that gain.

Take money off the table and stuff it under your mattress.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 09:55:22

50% cash today.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-05-19 10:27:26

+1

 
 
 
Comment by X-GSfixr
2014-05-19 13:11:56

So John Oliver has his panties in a twist over GM’s “words to never use” list.

You are about 20 years late to that party.

Everybody who actually makes products for sale in the USA has a policy similar to this. Mainly to avoid giving the product liability vultures any ammo.

Unfortunately, the lawyer types at the meeting I attended didn’t give you any alternative words/phrases to use. So the -fixr, wanting to be part of the solution and not part of the problem, generated his own “substitution list”.

Defect = “Deviation from perfection”
Defective = “Minor tangent from perfection”
Problem = “Opportunity”
Cl##ster-F##k = “Enhanced opportunity”
Dangerous = “Almost totally safe”.

Today’s clue to the hand-wringers………everybody’s repair/maintenance manuals are written by the lawyers now. Any task has a half page of disclaimers/cautions, totally intended to give the manufacturer some CYA room. Of course, this leads to horrendous bills from the repair guys, because everyone is scared to do anything other than “by the manual”.

OTOH, this will save us from being totally overrun by furriners. I know of several maintenance procedures that literally CANNOT be performed “per the (lawyerized) book”. It’s now “Tribal knowledge” stuff.

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-05-19 14:15:45

I wonder what GM will do about all those pesky regulations and standards that require auto makers to have specifications AND MEET THEM?

 
 
Comment by goon squad
2014-05-19 16:08:33

Everyone must check in.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-05-19 20:14:13

Logan and Josh. Two skilled liars who lie great together.

 
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