This Glut Is Going To Exist Indefinitely
Equities.com reports on Arizona. “The Fed’s unprecedented mortgage subsidy has helped the market make a dead-cat bounce since the crash of 2008. However, while low rates have propped up prices, sales of existing homes have fallen in seven of the last eight months. In Phoenix, where home prices have bounced back and Wall Street money has vacuumed up thousands of distressed properties, the market has gone flat. In Belfiore Real Estates’ April market report, Jim Belfiore wrote, ‘The bad news for home builders is they have created a glut of supply in previously hot market areas… Potential buyers, as might be expected, feel no sense of urgency to buy because they believe this glut is going to exist indefinitely.’”
Phoenix Business Journal in Arizona. “Metro Phoenix saw its rate of underwater homes plunge to 22.7 percent during the first quarter, according to Zillow Inc. That rate means there still are 175,811 Valley homeowners that owe more on their mortgages than their home is worth — essentially leaving them stuck and unable to move — and accounts for $14.8 billion in total negative equity. The Valley once again posted among the highest rates of negative equity in the nation.”
“‘The unfortunate reality is that housing markets look to be swimming with underwater borrowers for years to come,’ Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement.”
From Vegas Inc in Nevada. “U.S. officials hope to fetch at least $19 million by selling 120 acres of southern Las Vegas Valley land. The BLM says the fair market value of the parcels is $19.19 million combined — almost $160,000 per acre — and it won’t sell them for anything less.”
“The BLM’s first local auction this year, on Jan. 16, was for 440 acres that the agency said was worth $25.3 million combined, or $57,420 an acre. The agency wound up selling 24 of the 28 parcels for $23.8 million, with four parcels left on the table.”
“BLM land sales roared during the boom years but plunged when the housing market collapsed. In 2006, the agency sold at least 2,924 acres locally for $777 million, an average of $266,000 per acre. From 2007 to 2012, it sold just 107 acres.”
“Las Vegas’ new-home market continues to slump this year, with sharp drops in sales and development plans. Las Vegas’ broader economy seems to be improving, but the housing market is apparently ’stuck in neutral,’ Home Builders Research President Dennis Smith said in his report.”
“‘Is there a recovery taking place in the Las Vegas housing market or not?’ he asked. ‘In our opinion, the word ‘recovery’ is now one of those overused terms by pundits, economists, realtors, politicians and reporters.’”
The Rio Rancho Observer in New Mexico. “With an increasing supply and signs of decreasing demand, the Rio Rancho housing market could officially become a buyers’ market. Pending sales fell 41 percent, from 278 in April 2013 to 164 in April 2014. Over the last six years, local Realtor Mark Fiedler said the local inventory of homes for sale in Rio Rancho has gone down fairly consistently. In the last year, he has seen that figure level off and start going back up again.”
“Since the summer of 2007, prices are down 17 percent in Albuquerque and 22 percent in Rio Rancho. ‘We haven’t hit the bottom on prices yet,’ Fiedler added.”
The Albuquerque Journal in New Mexico. “Foreclosure filings in Rio Rancho rose significantly last month, up from almost 45 in April 2013 to about 120 in April 2014, and the number of local homes in foreclosure is approaching state and national rates. Local Realtor Mark Fiedler cautioned against reading too much into one month’s fluctuation. He noted last month’s new filings, or when banks file court actions to start the foreclosure process, are only about 25 percent higher than the average for the last 12 months.”
“According to Trulia, almost 140 homes are in foreclosure in Rio Rancho Centra, which includes North Hills and Northern Meadows. The average sale price in that region has fallen 26 percent, from $176,728 in 2007 to $131,225 in 2014, according to GAAR data. Banks and other government agencies offer many programs, Fiedler said, to assist people at risk of losing their homes. Those homeowners should seek that assistance as soon as possible. In some cases, they can obtain lower interest rates or a deferment of payments.”
Eyewitness News 4 in New Mexico. “A 4 On Your Side investigation found the Albuquerque metro still has more than 100,000 undeveloped residential lots. Like other southwest states, New Mexico is home to ‘zombie subdivisions’ – modern-day ghost communities that were platted, in some cases paved with streets, but lack houses after the housing market collapsed in 2008. ‘Yeah, the market really dropped,’ Connie Bornschein said. She’s lived in a home in southwest Albuquerque for the last three years. She said she’s about to move out and try to lease it to renters.”
“The home is in a part of Albuquerque that experienced explosive growth roughly 10 years ago. Across the street from Bornschein’s home, more than a dozen lots remain undeveloped and encompassed by a metal fence. ‘It makes it kind of depressing … You can look and see the beautiful mountain and stuff like that, but then you look down and there’s not much to look at,’ she said.”
“A recent study by the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy found millions of vacant lots across eight southwestern states — Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Utah, Wyoming, and New Mexico. Families in Albuquerque’s so-called ‘zombie subdivisions’ hope to have new neighbors that will buy a home and stay for the long-term. ‘I just don’t like all the dirt flying over here,’ said homeowner Stephanie Lucero.”
The Housing Market Is D O A
Purchase apps have been negative week to week for 3 of the last 4 weeks.
Lest we forget, which is why I’m here to remind you, the month of May is historically the second or third strongest month of the year for home sales.
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-housing-market-is-d-o-a/
Hence Mo Credik Mel.
“‘The unfortunate reality is that housing markets look to be swimming with underwater borrowers for years to come,’ Zillow Chief Economist Stan Humphries said in a statement.”
And more will be created as;
-Prices continue sliding lower
-New resales occur
~Underwater Nation
And more will come on the market because the sell signal has now been recognized. See yesterday from Liquidation Watch:
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-05-21 10:32:37
We’re at the early stages of selling homes, so I only have limited data with which to work (3 sales). So far, 2 have sold for about 3% above the Zestimate, and 1 has sold for about 10% below the Zestimate.
“We’re at the early stages of selling homes,…”
I can’t believe someone who works for an investment firm would admit they have switched from the buy side to the sell side. Doesn’t this risk triggering a stampede by the bovine investor herd towards the exits?
I think he meant the early stages of the spring selling season.
For reference, in the past two months or so, in my zip code, the number of homes on the market has doubled, with almost as many “pre-foreclosures” waiting in the wings.
I’m flattered for you to think I can move a market.
I don’t.
It’s you and all the other short-term investors all looking for an exit point at the same time who can move a market.
Existing home sales rise in April for first time this year
Sales of previously owned homes rise in April and provide a jolt to a slowing housing market
Existing home sales climb 1.3% in April, while inventory is on the rise
Sales of previously owned homes rose nationwide in April as the housing market picked up some steam amid the spring selling season.
“Some growth was inevitable after sub-par housing activity in the first quarter, but improved inventory is expanding choices and sales should generally trend upward from this point,” Lawrence Yun, the trade group’s chief economist, said in a statement.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-re-existing-home-sales-20140522-story.html
Ahh, back to reporting month-over-month blips because the year-over-year numbers suck so badly. Who could have imagined this?
Sales always go up in April and May as compared to the winter.
But wait - weren’t we all told that February and March numbers sucked especially badly this year because of weather? Shouldn’t we have seen like maybe a +15 to +20% bounceback in April alone?
Not that you’ll care, but the reduction in the year-on-year sales is entirely on the distressed side…non-distressed sales are up year on year.
Not that such things matter to people at all (although they do matter to me).
BTW, that’s CA data.
My points still stand. Depressed sales are depressed sales.
And sales of high-end priced properties (such as predominate in CA) are doing much better than the low end.
And sales of high-end priced properties (such as predominate in CA) are doing much better than the low end ??
Predominate ?? Predominate = In the majority….Hardly…California is a massive expanse…Most of its housing would be considered at the lower end of the spectrum…$150,000-$200,000. is quite common…
Distressed sales are distressed houses. Since Fannie and Freddie tightened up in 2009, less than 1% of those new loans, basically the entire market, has defaulted. So those distressed sales must be loans from way back in 2007-2008, plenty of time to trash a house. They are being snapped up for fix-up and flipping and relisting at market.
No Mz. Craterton. Housing demand is at 19 year lows…. and falling.
The stat that I saw was that non-distressed sales were up about 15% year on year, and distressed sales were down 43% year on year in California. The combination of the two meant sales overall were down 5% year on year in April.
What you can’t see through those stats is that the number of non-distressed sales is at the highest level since about 2007 (it looks like April 2007 had about the same number of non-distressed sales as April 2014), and the number of distressed sales is at the lowest level since 2008 (April 2007 was lower than April 2014 with respect to distressed sales).
There has been growth in the number of non-distressed sales each year from April 2011 to April 2014.
I think that’s a pretty interesting underlying dynamic that the headline of “sales down 5%” hides. If that underlying dynamic continues, then the press will be reporting an increase in year-on-year sales by Q4 of this year.
The reduction in distressed sales was most pronounced in the first half of 2013–so the year on year comparisons will be significantly affected by that 1st half distress reduction from 2013 until the second half of this year.
Just don’t act surprised when sales are higher year on year for the second half of 2014, and the MSM starts putting out different headlines about how “housing is back”, and “2015 is looking promising”, and the “FHFA’s efforts to boost housing have been successful”.
I’m already throwing up a little bit in my mouth. People will give credit to Fannie/Freddie (thus no reform will gain traction), when the reality is that the sales data would show higher sales even without Fannie/Freddie giving money to people without credit. Sigh.
The California stats probably don’t apply to my state of MD. MD is judicial and recourse. Actual evictions are held up for years.
Yeah, for judicial states, it’s much harder to predict…if they eek out the distress over a long enough time, it’s almost like there is no distress. However, if there is a change in the law, it would be like a dam bursting.
Collapsing demand in CA or MD. A distinction without a difference.
Whatever, you admitted you guys were now selling. Spin what’s going on how you want but you ain’t in it for the rents. You want oversized bubble profits and need to sell now to get what you can. You and a million others. Glad that moment of truth slipped out.
Attack the messenger, if you don’t like the message. Any thoughts on the dynamic that I noted?
Which was that? Collapsing demand in CA or MD?
plunge to 22% BAHHHHHHHHHH
what percentage of home were “underwater” in the 50’s- 60’s
Well…. hbb is up so that means the blog owner didn’t get barbecued.
I think the Bits is posted automatically, so I was glad to see the Arizona/New Mexico thread. Ben’s still looking for content.
With the wind shift, my place saw little sun today, blocked by smoke. Just now I see black and white ash falling. I picked up a piece of the black ash; it’s like a wood chip, certainly enough material to have carried a spark had it not burned out before hitting the ground. The sunset is soon, so hopefully the wind will die down. Maybe some rain tomorrow they say.
“U.S. officials hope..$160,000 per acre — and it won’t sell them for anything less.”
Impossible for this Yankee to comprehend. Undeveloped desert, with a view of more desert.
Fixt
“U.S. officials hope..$160,000 per acre — and it won’t sell
them for anything lessever.”And I’m sure it’s all above board on those auctions/deals. What a scam, BLM trickling out land at the developers pace.
Let me give you a hint: The land won’t sell at $160,000 per acre.
you must have missed this part:
“The BLM’s first local auction this year, on Jan. 16, was for 440 acres that the agency said was worth $25.3 million combined, or $57,420 an acre. The agency wound up selling 24 of the 28 parcels for $23.8 million, with four parcels left on the table.”
And someone’s underwater already.
Is that someone you Schmendrik?
Idiot, I mean ibbots, I think YOU missed this part:
“…$160,000…”
Your quote: “…$57,420 an acre”
People are smart…
You are obviously not smart people.
The article is clearly talking about two totally different sections of land. The BLM listed 440 acres at $57,420 per acre. They sold a little most of those 440 acres for $23.8M, so the land was worth somewhat more than $58,000 per acre.
Now the BLM has a different batch of land to sell, closer to LV. Since they got more than their asking price for the 440 acres, it’s reasonable to expect that they will get their asking price for the LV land too.
(WHY the land is worth $160K an acre is a puzzle to me too, but that’s another issue)
And why is it ok for private developers to sell as high as they can, but when the Fed Gov holds out for a higher price, it’s a “scam?” Or are you expecting to get the land for nothing, like the FSA?
‘Or are you expecting to get the land for nothing, like the FSA?’
I wonder what the BLM paid for this land?
http://wilderness.org/sites/default/files/all_us_public_lands_0.jpg
Well to brutally honest, whatever it cost to wrest it from Mexico, I suppose. No, it’s not nice history. But once it belongs to BLM, I guess they can buy low and sell high. Or I suppose it could be homesteaded with a claim shanty.
Is it still go time for you? Stay safe.
How about the deal the Chinese got from Harry Reid?
Concord, CA Housing Demand Plunges 11% YoY To 4 Year Low; Inventory Balloons 72%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Concord-home-value/r_51518/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D51518%252C44656%26el%3D0
http://www.movoto.com/concord-ca/market-trends/
LaQuinta, CA Housing Prices Crater 5% YoY; Demand Plunges 10% To 4 Year Low
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-La-Quinta-home-value/r_18883/#metric=mt%3D18%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D18883%26el%3D0
“Banks and other government agencies offer many programs, Fiedler said, to assist people at risk of losing their homes. Those homeowners should seek that assistance as soon as possible. In some cases, they can obtain lower interest rates or a deferment of payments.”
Keep ‘em stayin’ and keep ‘em payin.
Do this until it is time to drop the hammer on them, until it is time to extend their education a bit, until it is time to educate them about this term “homeowner” that is used and misused so often.
Not saying the term “homeowner” is not correct - there is truly somebody that owns the home. But that somebody is not them.
Who is the true “homeowner” in case a loan is federally-guaranteed and the Fed bought the note from Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac? Would it be the bankers who own the Fed? Or the ‘U.S. taxpayer’? Or someone else behind the curtain who is not so obvious?
Mira Loma, CA Rental Rates Crater 7% YoY As Housing Demand Collapses A Stunning 38% To 10 Year Low
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Mira-Loma-home-value/r_5994/#metric=mt%3D46%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D8%26r%3D5994%26el%3D0
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Mira-Loma-home-value/r_5994/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D5994%26el%3D0
Dirt flying around ABQ is a regular occurrence which often has little to do with construction or vacant lots.
The Land of Enchantment.
This enchantment blows in from every direction and tends to get in one’s eyes.
ABQ looks very pretty on Breaking Bad. What the downside, no jobs? It seems like a big enough place where there’d be some decent jobs. Not as big as PHX but New Mexico seems like it should be a copy of Arizona, just a little smaller. Someone who knows tell me, what’s the knock on it?
I suppose they might be a lot alike, depending on your vantage point, but there’s a totally different flavor that’s difficult to describe.
New Mexico/Albuquerque’s populace and culture seems to be evenly split, maybe 33% Indian, 33% Spanish, & 34% white.
AZ/Phoenix metro populace about 10% Indian, 30% Spanish & 60% white.
NM has the national laboratories and casinos. AZ has tourism, retirement communities and casinos.
AZ has grown exponentially in the last 20 years. NM not so much.
AZ has way more stucco shacks. NM has a few. NM shacks are more Spanish style.
AZ culture has a lot of midwestern US flavor with lots of Bears, Packers and Viking fans as an example. NM not so much.
Thanks, this answers it.
33% Spanish
New Mexicans like to consider themselves “Spaniards” as opposed to “Mexicans”, but from what I have seen, they are far more Mexican than Spanish.
Plus, there is really no such a thing as “Spanish”. Spain is an amalgam of smaller regions, former kingdoms, many which have a primary language other than Castillian. And some regions, like Catalunya, Galicia and the Basque country want out of the Spanish union altogether.
Latino is a better term.
Usually its; Infrastructure….Then Higher education…Then Weather….
http://www.npr.org/2014/05/22/314728781/albuquerque-police-face-federal-scrutiny-local-outrage
Albuquerque Police Face Federal Scrutiny, Local Outrage
by Kelly McEvers
May 22, 2014 3:31 AM ET
Kenneth Ellis III was shot and killed by police in a 7-Eleven parking lot in Albuquerque, N.M.
He is among the dozens of people local police have shot over the last four years, 25 of whom have died. The U.S. Department of Justice issued a scathing report in April saying Albuquerque police have a pattern of excessive force that violates the Constitution.
Investigations and policy changes are in the works, while families of those who have been shot argue more needs to be done.
[there's more]
Oh yeah. The APD is infamous for their tendency to overreact. Over the years they’ve dome these kinds of things many times.
What the downside, no jobs? It seems like a big enough place where there’d be some decent jobs. Not as big as PHX but New Mexico seems like it should be a copy of Arizona, just a little smaller.
I lived a year in NM & left in ‘76. My sister lived there for 15 years & left last year. Downsides:
few jobs, from an article this week:
blowing dust & smoke at regular intervals,
crime: 1/14/14: “In a state-by-state comparison of FBI crime statistics released Thursday, New Mexico finished worst in the nation in burglary, 48th in forcible rape and 47th in each of the following categories: violent crime, aggravated assault and property crimes.”
institutionalized incompetence to a remarkable degree: the NM Railrunner commuter train was once allowed to run right through a wildfire that was on both side of its tracks. The management was aware of the fire, but did not bother to tell the train’s engineer. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) recently sent some radioactive waste to WIPP (also in NM), which spontaneously overheated inside the facility and caused radiation to leak to the outside. One would think the big brains at LANL would have known enough not to do that. A few years ago there was a natural gas shortage during a severe cold spell in NM - a state which produces a great deal of natural gas, nearly all of which is piped out of the state & then what is used in NM has to be piped back into the state. It turned out there was a electrical power problem in Texas & they had trouble pumping the gas back over the line. “While the cold spell that began on Feb. 2, 2011, was the longest sustained one in 25 years, gas and utility companies had failed to learn from past experiences,” the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission found . Google this: “School library still named after convicted felon”. From a 2/2013 news article in ABQ: ” Before she left office in December, former Bernalillo County Assessor Karen Montoya bungled hundreds of tax assessments and illegally fleeced property owners out of what could top a million dollars.” There is a seemingly never-ending series of innocent New Mexicans savaged by vicious dogs running loose and seeking whom they may devour. In 2008 NM led the USA in prescription drug overdose death rates, double that of AZ. Etc.
“The average sale price in that region has fallen 26 percent, from $176,728 in 2007 to $131,225 in 2014, according to GAAR data.”
In a typical market environment, housing prices fall. That’s the way it works.
“U.S. officials hope to fetch at least $19 million by selling 120 acres of southern Las Vegas Valley land. The BLM says the fair market value of the parcels is $19.19 million combined — almost $160,000 per acre — and it won’t sell them for anything less.
…
The BLM’s first local auction this year, on Jan. 16, was for 440 acres that the agency said was worth $25.3 million combined, or $57,420 an acre.”
Are these passages from the same article? If so, it seems the journalist missed something: The BLM apparently will sell these parcels for considerably less than their claimed $160,000 fair market value:
($57,420/$160,000 - 1)*100% = -64% less.
What is it about ‘fire sale price’ that the real journalist cannot grasp?
What is it about ‘fire sale price’ that the real journalist cannot grasp?
They aren’t journalists, they’re propagandists. They just take press releases given to them, wordsmith them a little, and presto! They have a story. So much easier than doing that “investigative journalism” stuff.
See my post above. They’re talking about two different sets of parcels.
One of which is worth three times as much as the other on a sq ft basis?
Makes no sense…I don’t care if one is in ND and the other in HI. (Well, maybe in that case…)
It’s the old “location” lie. We know it better as “it’s different here” which of course it’s never different anywhere.
‘Some 33.9 percent of mortgaged homes in the Las Vegas metropolitan area remained underwater in the first quarter of 2014, but that was an improvement from 48.4 percent a year ago, according to Zillow. Zillow reported that the Las Vegas area by the end of March carried loans that were $10.2 billion more than the homes were worth.’
‘The 90-day delinquency rate for all mortgaged Las Vegas homes stood at 12.1 percent, which is still above the national average of 7.2 percent.’
‘Zillow reported that among Southern Nevada homes with mortgages, North Las Vegas had the most underwater at 41.3 percent. That was followed by Logandale (36.5 percent underwater), Laughlin (35.8 percent), Las Vegas (33.9 percent), Boulder City (30.1 percent), Henderson (29.4 percent) and Mesquite (23.9 percent).’
‘Some 30 percent of Las Vegas area homeowners who were underwater owed 1 percent to 20 percent more than their homes were worth. An additional 6.8 percent owed 81 percent to 100 percent more than the value of their residences. The remainder of underwater homeowners fell between those extremes.’
“An additional 6.8 percent owed 81 percent to 100 percent more than the value of their residences.”
I would think the vast majority of these folks are squattin’ and the bank hasn’t gotten around to repossessing the underwater collateral and recognizing the loss. Any of these fools current on their mortgage deserves what they get - i.e. WAY above-market rent.
Neil, please pass the popcorn.
by the end of March carried loans that were $10.2 billion more than the homes were worth ??
That is a pretty serious problem….Foreclosure likely isn’t the route because the bank will then own it as a non-preforming asset…Seems like we have a boat-load of short sales still yet to come…Wow, I can’t believe most of these people are still paying their mortgage…Thats a lot of years living rent free…Effectively, they got a big pay raise assuming they have a job…
“‘The 90-day delinquency rate for all mortgaged Las Vegas homes stood at 12.1 percent, which is still above the national average of 7.2 percent.’”
That is some nasty shadow inventory. However shadow inventory on it’s own doesn’t scare me…if the delinquent homes are full of people, then the sale of shadow inventory is just giant game of musical chairs–people leave one house, and move into another, resetting the market, but the bounceback could be quick once the distress has been worked through (since there isn’t an overhang of unneeded housing).
HOWEVER, that shadow inventory in LV becomes even NASTIER when you look at the number of vacant homes.
I can’t find the article, but I remember reading about how someone looked at the number of homes where power had been shut off in LV. Given how big a deal it is to NOT have power for AC, etc. in the Vegas heat, they thought this was a good proxy for “no one lives there”.
The number was HUGE…like 50k homes. Which is a HUGE number in a market the size of Vegas.
‘The 90-day delinquency rate for all mortgaged Las Vegas homes stood at 12.1 percent, which is still above the national average of 7.2 percent.’
And lets not skim over that nugget. The long term historic delinquency rate is somewhere just above or below 1%. A delinquency rate 600% higher than normal is nothing to brag about.
New Mexico is a rather pretty state, but the state gov ‘t seems to like NM to stay behind the times, poor infrastructure with many unpaved roads and many in poor housing with poor job pay and outlook.
The climate is very favorable with picturesque desert and mountains New Mexico is lost in time and the minds of state Gov’t not to attract business, NM will continue to be a enigma.
One of our 50 is missing.
Speaking of New Mexico and Rio Rancho, here is a tale about 2 friends who decided to sell out of Phoenix (Chandler specifically) and move east. It was me and my carpool buddy. He sold at the absolute top of the AZ market in 2005 and immediately dumped it into a more expensive house in Rio Rancho.
I sold past the peak, but still did ok and rented for a few years before the better half forced me to buy again in 2010 here in OR.
Well, turns out I have a paid for house (nothing to brag about since ownership sucks) and my friend is way underwater on his house struggling each month to make the payment while his wife has gone back to work to make ends meet. There is no hope in sight to get out from under the crushing debt, except to let it go back to the bank which I have encouraged him to do. The american dream has turned out to be a nightmare for him.
I would not mind Knowing what zip you are in Oregon ??
His zip makes no difference.
Hillsboro 97124
‘Wichita area home buyers bought 754 homes — 709 existing homes and 45 new homes — in April, which represented a drop of 10 sales from the same month in 2013, according to monthly totals released this week by the Wichita Area Association of Realtors.’
‘So far, there have been 2,410 homes sold in 2014, about 5.3 percent below the 2,544 sold through the first four months of 2013. April wasn’t the rebound that some were hoping for after a weak first quarter.’
“April came up pretty close,” said Greg Fox, a real estate broker and president of the South Central Kansas Multiple Listing Service. “It’s still down for the year, but I don’t know that I’d say ‘Geez, we’re in trouble, and I need to pack up and find a new line of work.’”
‘Fox said one aspect of the housing situation is puzzling and could prove troublesome: the low number of houses for sale. In April, there were just 2,870 houses on the market, which is 13 percent below last year. That amounts to a four month supply.’
‘Stan Longhofer, director of the Center for Real Estate at Wichita State University, said this is the second tightest April inventory since the records started being kept in 2001. Longhofer said he doesn’t know why the market is so tight, but speculated that it may be because many homeowners are holding their houses back because they are still struggling with being underwater on mortgages. They don’t want to lock in losses by selling the house.’
‘But if the market remains tight, home prices will rise and that will lift the market, putting more and more homeowners back into the black on their mortgages. “So it will fix itself as home values come back,” he said.’
So we can add Wichita to the long list of areas with housing shortages. It’s all built out; the whole country, at the same time!
‘DebtX is selling a $4.8-billion portfolio of non-performing residential loans for the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. These loans are collateralized by properties across the US with one pool concentrated in the Southwest.’
‘Then, on June 25, a Neighborhood Stabilization Outcomes Pool offering of approximately 4,800 loans in eight regions totaling $800 million in unpaid principal balance will go to bid.’
‘This is HUD’s fifth, multi-billion dollar sale of single-family non-performing loans in the past eighteen months. All together SEBA and DebtX have brought more than 72,000 non-performing, single-family HUD loans to market, for a total sale of $17 billion.’
‘This offering will bring HUD over the 100,000-loan milestone, DebtX CEO Kingsley Greenland, notes. “This is no longer a one-off transaction type for HUD, the agency is now selling billions and billions of dollars of these loans on a regular basis,” he tells GlobeSt.com.’
‘(Reuters) - U.S. home resales rose in April and the supply of properties on the market increased, suggesting the housing market was regaining its footing.’
From the comments:
“Sales are still down 15 percent from a peak of 5.38 million units hit in July. Compared to April last year, sales were down 6.8 percent.”
‘What complete propaganda BS this is! Sales are up 1.3% from a disappointing March, down 6.8% from last April and it’s a REBOUND?’
‘Yes, sky high prices stopped smart investors over 12 months ago and first-time buyers can’t afford or qualify, but the article left out the MIDDLE-CLASS who represent the largest group of potential buyers who also can’t afford or qualify at these sky high prices.’
‘Sales are expected to trend higher for the rest of 2014. Who’s left to buy? The upper middle-class has been doing almost all the buying the last 12 months and there are only so many left who don’t already own a home. Many of these homeowners would like to buy a newer, nicer or more expensive home, but who’s going to buy their current home? Not an investor, first-time or middle-class buyer.’
‘Inventory IS growing and it doesn’t include the large “shadow inventory” that still exists but isn’t counted as inventory.’
‘This article ONLY tries to put a positive spin on a housing problem that will only get worse until home prices become affordable for the middle-class and first-time buyer. I imagine the criminal banks and corrupt politicians will come up with “50 year financing” in a last ditch effort to keep home prices from crashing as they try to entice home ownership with a lower payment for a too high priced home.’
‘ATTENTION ALL MIDDLE-CLASS & FIRST-TIME BUYERS: Wait 18 to 36 months as this housing bubble WILL POP sometime during the next 12-18 months and you will be able to buy a home at a fairer price.’
Another:
‘After 6 months of missed existing home sales expectations, last month’s (March) fragile beat of dismal expectations (even though it was the worst existing home sales SAAR in 21 months) provided just enough of a glimmer of hope to stoke more short squeezes in home builder stocks . Now April… the start of the key seasonal selling season.. and existing home sales rose modestly but missed expectations. There is - simply put - no post-weather bounce.. and still NAR is blaming slow April sales being delayed due to Winter weather!!!! This is the worst start to a year since 2007.’
‘First-time buyers continue to represent fewer than one-third of all buyers at 29 percent in April, down from 30 percent in March; with all-cash buyers at 32%.’
And another:
‘We have tons for sale around here, and most at pre-bubble prices (circa 2003-4). Prices are as low as I’ve ever seen, whether you look at actual sales and comps, appraisals and BPOs, or a proxy value site like Zillow. I honestly bought all this recover BS and we converted our rental to a sale several months ago…languishing on the market when we should have gotten another tenant. The big problem with Real Estate stats and news is that trends are local, but news tends to be regional or national. Do your homework!’
The big problem with Real Estate stats and news is that trends are local, but news tends to be regional or national. Do your homework! ??
There is the money statement right there….
False.
Materials and labor don’t vary more than 5% irrespective of location.
You’re buying the commute, not the materials.
Not once you get past the mail box.
“Buying a commute”
No. You paid a 300% premium for a millstone. I’d be in deep denial too.