The Housing Bubble

Yardwork! I was at the nursery yesterday, everything was on sale. I guess stage 3 water restrictions in North Texas compelled them to put everything on sale before it died from lack of water. I bought a 10′ tall peach tree for $15!

Ima build a flower bed this morning and then take my wife to the Buddhist Temple this afternoon where they’re having a big thing. Aint no party like a Buddhist party!

My mum sent me this book called Brain Rules that I started reading a couple of days ago. Among other insights, it claims that exercise is a key factor in acheiving longevity and in maintaining mental performance into old age.

If you were not fully convinced by those claims, I recommend reading:

Spark: The Revolutionary New Science of Exercise and the Brain by John J. Ratey and Eric Hagerman (Jan 1, 2013)

It makes the same claim, but back it up by summarizing a remarkable amount of recent neuroscience research. It is well-written, in a very accessible style.

Worth a read.

Jack La Lanne would agree. He said exercise is king. Nutrition is queen. Put them together and you have a kingdom!

My three week experiment with eliminating refined sugar, artificial sugar, and processed foods proved one thing so far: no more afternoon drowsiness and greater energy levels constantly during the day. I don’t prove this for anyone or try to impress anyone with this restricted diet. Most people would not want it. So there is no one to impress anyway with my dull lifestyle. And I am finding it easier than I thought to refuse those “special occasions” and fall off the wagon. The free Friday lunches usually have a dessert like cookies. I eat an orange or banana instead. I am also getting more definition by loss of body fat. That avoidance of sugar and candies caused me to drop a pound a week. That myfitnesspal is a very valuable app. Very cleverly designed. You can see what you are deficient in by mid day and combine whole foods by the end of the day to get the RDA of the nutrients. They only lack the B vitamins.

I gave my cookie to a coworker

Pick the right parents — Armold Schwarzennegger

Jack LaLanne’s father died of a heart attack in his 50s. LaLanne died in his 90s.

I think it is good to exercise, eat right and try to maximize what you’ve got. But genetics is cold hard fact.

Per Wikipedia: LaLanne’s parents were Jennie (née Garaig) (1884–1973) and Jean/John LaLanne (1881–1939), immigrants from Oloron-Sainte-Marie in southwest France. Both entered the U.S. in the 1880s as young children at the Port of New Orleans in Louisiana. LaLanne had two older brothers, Ervil, who died in childhood (1906–1911), and Norman (1908–2005), who nicknamed him “Jack.

His mother was almost 90 and his one brother lived to almost 100.

French fries hang around a long time…

“I think it is good to exercise, eat right and try to maximize what you’ve got. But genetics is cold hard fact”

Point well taken. However, if Jack LaLanne instead continued to eat junk food, he would probably have lived to about 60 at most.

I knew a guy of filipino descent who started smoking at 37. He told me his lineage tends to be diabetic and die early. So he basically reasoned that he might as well be hedonistic.

Now. Suppose Jack LaLanne’s grandparents on his mom’s side died early from some accident. He would have no history of how long his mom’s side lived. His dad died when Jack LaLanne was young. He had no guidance of his genetics. So he could have decided to live it up since people he’s related to die early. But he didn’t follow that logic.

The sourges of inherited diseases are not commonplace. Jack LaLanne had good genetics. Many people 30 years ago in their 20s had great genetics but chose to be sedentary and now have chronic diseases. They ruined their own bodies.

My logic is that you should optimize your nutrition now, no matter what age. And establish a consistent exercise program no matter what the genetics. Many people with great genes are poisoning themselves.

Look at the obesity rates of young people today compared to 40 years ago. Today it’s not uncommon to see a “plus size” cheerleader or two at any high school. 40 years ago not a single one.

“Jack La Lanne would agree.”

His story happens to be author John Medina’s leading example in the chapter on exercise!

“I think it is good to exercise, eat right and try to maximize what you’ve got. But genetics is cold hard fact.”

So why hasten age and the end with bad choices - heavy drinking, smoking, processed foods, high sodium, no exercise? Someone whose lineage dies in their 50s may be 20 years old now. The disease that kills off their lineage may have a cure in 25 years. So tragic if that 20-something just lived it up and took worse environmental choices than his parents and die months before being able to get the cure.

That’s great info on John Medina.

I now know proper diet increases energy levels to where energy is constant and does not go way up and then way down. Constant energy is easier on your body. Thinking (not letting the mind drift) is easier with more energy. Exercise and nutrition are key. Also the exercise of your brain with your career, for example, and with puzzles or games such as Sudoku.

Fascinating!

“Police interviewed Rodger and found him to be a ‘perfectly polite, kind and wonderful human,’ family attorney Alan Shifman said.”

Sounds to me like the family was looking for legal cover. Police aren’t mental health professionals. Heck, even the mental health “professionals” don’t know WTF.

But the family knew. Oh, boy, did they ever know. They should have taken a tip from the Jay & The Americans song:

“Let’s lock the door and throw away the key, now!”

“Now the 1 percent are going on killing sprees?”

Here’s a photo:
http://picpaste.com/elliot-rodger.jpg

And he would have gone on to kill at some point even if he was a chick magnet.

Lionel,

So what is your opinion on this bunch of mass killings since 2000? Guns have been around for centuries. High schools in rural areas in the 40s and 50s had rifle shooting as part of the P.E. curriculum. Some accounts of boys who would take their rifles to school, place them on a rack before the classes, and collect their guns going home, as they would go shoot game to bring back for dinner to the family.

Something has changed significantly.

Obviously it is population. But I think it’s more than that. I don’t know what it is. I doubt Asperger’s syndrome has become a new phenomenon since the 90s. Or am I mistaken? What are the drugs such as ritalin doing to the kids?

All these ADHD kids can be cured by applying 2 policies at home: 1) Don’t feed them foods with refined sugar or added sugar - only feed them home made whole foods and 2) the man of the house must instill discipline. Like my dad did. A strong father role. Substituting drugs for lack of parenting because “dad commutes one hour each way to and from work and has no energy to be stern” - well that’s a friggin copout.

Those are good questions and valid comments, Bill. I have a good friend who went on an antidepressant years ago and reported to me one day that he had experienced significant homicidal thoughts. It scared the crap out of me, frankly.

Of course, the place to start with this discussion is: is there an increase in mass murders over time? Here is one person’s (hopefully data-based) opinion:

http://hereandnow.wbur.org/2013/09/23/mass-murder-decline

As to Ritalin, I’ve never seen that tied to homicidal thoughts or behavior. We’re looking more at anti-depressants and anti-psychotic meds that really have a (potentially) significant impact on thoughts and actions. It’s greatly complicated by kids on the spectrum. As a group, meds providers are rather loose in their prescribing. And unfortunately, if there’s a rare side effect for the general population, a lot of times we see it with these kids. (It should be noted that some of the sweetest kids I work with are on the spectrum - it’s usually the combination of autism and a mood or thought disorder that shows up in these pronounced ways.)

The best way for me to conceptualize individual cases is to consider risk factors. Michael Rutter did some pioneering research on this subject, finding that children can absorb a number of risk factors (poverty, depression, etc.) but when an individual reached 4 or more, the chance of increased mental illness multiplied by 20 or so. The more risk factors after that, and you’re in hot water. Having a mood disorder, thought disorder, maybe autism (I couldn’t tell from the video whether or not this kid was autistic - if he was, it wasn’t obvious), addiction to video games would have to be a risk factor, as would possible psychotropic meds, probably also other drugs and alcohol. But there may likely have been other factors at play.

As to ADHD specifically, I don’t know that diet change alone will alter a person’s working memory,processing speed, the kinds of things I test for. I certainly recommend to parents that they reduce refined carbs, but generally we’re talking about a significant core neurological issue. Behavioral support, exercise, diet and often meds alters the course of truly impacted kids. I certainly have worked with a number of kids for whom Ritalin had a positive effect. They tend to be autistic (along with processing issues), but one can certainly observe significant changes in behavior. It should be noted that there are often other factors involved beyond core inattentiveness; anxiety, depression; autism, etc.

So six innocent people were killed. May they rest in peace. I am sad for them.

Meanwhile the biggest mass murderers are allowed to operate as usual and encouraged. Of course, I’m talking about governments.

262 million people were killed by governments in the 20th century. University of Hawaii gets credit for the study.

http://www.hawaii.edu/powerkills/20TH.HTM

And we blather on about such an atrocity that was…get ready…STOPPED. But governments continue to mass murder and we think that’s okay.

The Calgary murderer was also a Eurasian male. Interesting.

Funny how Bill thinks that men should not marry the women they impregnate, yet he also believes that mental illness should be prevented by “the man of the house” instilling discipline. Make-a-no-sensie.

Somehow you are assuming by not marrying, the father will not be “the man of the house.” That he will be absent.

You assume wrong. Shame. I thought you were a consultant, consultants should have more logic than direct hires.

Lionel,

By the way, that is an interesting link. It’s encouraging that mass murder by civilians has dropped in half since 1991 in the U.S. And as the U.S. population increased over the last 24 years.

Still the mass murder by governments continues without any complaint.

Where is Cindy Sheehan to protest Obama’s drone killings and the continued war in Afghanistan?

There are 32,000 U.S. troops currently in Afghanistan. We were supposed to think of Democrats as doves. Egad we’ve been had!

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/obama-slips-afghanistan-visit-us-troops-23862136

I thought you were a consultant, consultants should have more logic than direct hires.

How’d you come up with that one? Or, to phrase it another way, what logic is there in that statement?

And Bill, you incorrectly assume that by not marrying, the man will not be legally obligated to his consort and bastard children. You also assume that the lady is going to let the baby-daddy be “the man of the house”, even though he refuses to marry into the family.

Shame. You should have a less-heightened sense of self-importance.

Therefore you are a statist. Without a thugocracy, there is no marriage. What a wreck you statists are. This is why far more men are libertarians than women. Many women want the force of the state’s guns to rule men (aka “marriage.”)

Big V, Your philosophy is statist. Without a state there is no “marriage” - plain and simple. Most women understand that. That is a big factor in most women being for big government - Hillary, E Warren, Obama, etc.

Your true colors show vividly.

Where do you draw the line between “society” and “the state”?

I draw the line easily: the state is permitted by society to initiate force against innocent people. Society regards initiation of force immoral if done from those outside the state.

I did. Sadly an ex girlfriend of mine is battling stage 4 kidney cancer. I keep tabs on her. She has a good network of friends and that is helpful.

You don’t gotta lock up individualists to get the paranoid schizophrenics who can’t take care of themselves off the streets. Thanks Geraldo.

Exactly. It’s not individualists who are the problem, it’s psychos.

But, I do believe that sometimes people who are a little off, but otherwise not dangerous, are sometimes secretly and anonymously picked up off the streets and messed with and then turned loose. Or otherwise experimented with. Wouldn’t be surprised if that had happened to Holmes.

Ooops, sorry, Ben. As usual my potty mouth got the better of me. Deletion noted.

What I’m concerned about is that many times those who shouldn’t be locked up, are. And those who should be locked up, aren’t.

People are still locked up.

A walk around any downtown area tells you different. There are tons of drug and alcohol addicted mentally ill that are not locked up. Our system spends billions but doesn’t help any of these people. Eventually, if they commit serious enough crimes, they get locked up for a short while with criminals. The “homeless” dollars go other places including to pay to put welfare moms in Section 8 in neighborhoods where housing prices are propped up by the Mo Credik types.

And anybody that believes that in 2014 we cannot CURE drug addiction (not rehab) is being deceived.

Smart money considers his cash as a temporary form of wealth and to be converted to another asset class when that asset class crashes.

Be smart enough to see bubbly asset prices and look for value in another asset classes.

Yet somehow this never happens. Look at all those losses in the last stock market downturn that anyone could see coming a mile away. People lost half of their portfolios. Now everyone is brilliant again.

I hope I am being brilliant as I have been selling batches of my biggest gaining stock over the last year. A friend of mine who has been promoted to director of that same company a year or two ago seemed please when I told him I have over 4,000 shares.i did not tell him I had and sold 6,000 more shares over the years. 2,000 of which I sold way too low but realized a good gain still. Need to be on good terms for them to get me s good consulting gig in a couple years on west coast.

“Real Estate Goes Global”

And liars are local.

Yes. From our perspective it is a bubble. And yes the huge army of rich Chinese could continue to increase the house prices in the areas where they cluster.

So far they don’t like Phoenix so much. I hope that stays that way. Their bubble will crash at some point in Vancouver and the coastal California cities. And when that happens it will be deeper than 2008 and affect high end real estate all the way to cardboard box real estate.

You can rationalize, but you can’t make a mania logical. The Chinese will run just like the Japanese did when their bubble burst.

Blue
So true, but in the mean time it prices out the US middle class. That’s the bummer.
Personally, I’d like to see (dare I say it) protectionist policies. The world is flat, but we need to iron it?

but DO we need…

Who cares if “the middle class priced out”?

Rent

Sad to see it price out middle class Americans whose ancestors have been here for many generations. But you cannot argue against the notion that the Chinese overseas asset buy ups are a mania. This is the reason to rent if you are in the very same places they cluster.

The bubble (mania) is nationwide.

Priced out? Is that like “forced to pay too high a price”?

Actually when you think about it, renting is cheaper in the bubbliest of cities. By “renting” I don’t mean always having only a SFH. A multiple unit apartment complex (out here in the west you “rent” apartments…I understand in New York City you “buy” an apartment).

So renting is an alternative choice. Since you can either buy or rent, and particularly no one does this by gunpoint there is no “force” involved.

Hey dude, don’t get all snippety just because people throw your hypocrisy in your face.

I suppose you are the one around here who considers something hypocricy. I consider it bacon and eggs. Someone else will consider it a refrigerator while another would consider it a national anthem. Get my drift?