Bits Bucket for May 30, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
To donate by mail, or to otherwise contact this blogger, please send emails to: thehousingbubble@gmail.com
PayPal is a secure online payment method which accepts ALL major credit cards.
Links
-
November 2024 M T W T F S S « Sep 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
Photo Submission: hbbphotos@gmail.com
View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Ever-rising prices on ever-shrinking transactions volume…haven’t I seen this movie before?
Thursday, May 29, 2014 - 00:01
US RealtyTrac: April Home Sales Pace Little Changed; +4% Y/Y
…
“April home sales numbers are exhibiting the continued effects of low supply and still-strong demand that exist in many markets across the country,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac. “Annualized sales volume nationwide decreased on a monthly basis for the sixth consecutive month and the 4 percent annual increase in April was the lowest year-over-year increase so far this year. Meanwhile median home prices nationwide increased to the highest level since December 2008.
“U.S. median home prices have now increased 21 percent since hitting bottom in March 2012, although they are still 28 percent below their pre-recession peak of $237,537 in August 2006,” Blomquist continued. “There are a surprising number of markets, however, where median home prices have surpassed their previous peaks since the Great Recession ended in June 2009.”
Median prices surpass pre-recession levels in 19 percent of major counties
Since the recession ended in June 2009, median prices of residential property have surpassed pre-recession and recession levels (Jan 2005 through June 2009) in 53 counties, representing 19 percent of the 274 counties with a population of 200,000 or more where sufficient home price data is available.
New home price peaks were reached in the last two years in 28 counties, representing 10 percent of the total 274 counties analyzed, and seven counties reached new home price peaks in April 2014: San Francisco County, Calif.; Travis County, Texas in the Austin metro area; Jefferson County, Colo., in the Denver metro area; Marion County, Ind., in the Indianapolis metro area; Weld County, Colo., in the Greeley metro area northeast of Denver; Brazoria County, Texas in the Houston metro area; and Norfolk City, Va., in the Virginia Beach metro area.
Counties where the post-recession median home price peak is furthest above the pre-recession/recession median home price peak included Denver County, Colo. (up 16.6 percent), District of Columbia (up 14.5 percent), Arlington, Va., (up 12.6 percent), San Francisco County, Calif. (up 11.8 percent), New York County, N.Y. (up 11.1 percent), and Oklahoma County, Oklahoma.
“We are starting to exceed pre-recession levels in all categories of the market in Oklahoma,” said Sheldon Detrick, CEO of Prudential Detrick/Alliance Realty, covering the Oklahoma City and Tulsa, Okla. markets. “Home value appreciation continues to rise despite a continued lack of available inventory.”
Sales volume decreases annually in 13 states, 28 of 50 largest metro areas
Annualized sales volume in April decreased from a year ago in 13 states and the District of Columbia, along with in 28 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan statistical areas.
States with decreasing sales volume from a year ago included California (down 13 percent), Nevada (down 9 percent), Arizona (down 8 percent), Florida (down 2 percent), Maryland (down 1 percent), and Michigan (down 1 percent).
Major metro areas with decreasing sales volume from a year ago included Fresno, Calif., (down 23 percent), Boston (down 22 percent), Orlando (down 18 percent), San Francisco (down 16 percent), Los Angeles (down 14 percent), and Phoenix (down 12 percent).
“We are seeing median sales prices increase throughout Southern California as affordable inventory clears out, pushing people into higher price points,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “The rise in median price has offset the reduction in inventory to provide a stable overall market.”
…
Eventually there will be only one house sold, but it will sell for infinity dollars. It will be located in San Francisco (Frisco to locals).
Exactly.
I can ask $60k for my 10 year old Honda Civic but where are the buyers? ————>Realtors are liars.
What will my payments be?
Stick with a single username. You don’t need to hide.
Someone said something here to that effect before the last crash, no?
But actually, I believe the investor race to the exits tends to start before liquidity dries up to the point of a single home sale at the highest price, ever.
Exhibit A: Witness the stories out of China about price cuts and angry owners who bought at last month’s price.
Exhibit A: Witness the stories out of China about price cuts and angry owners who bought at last month’s price.
I seem to recall first reading those stories here on this blog a few years ago. Apparently the PTB in China are really good at playing kick the can.
Bloomberg - Borrowers Show No Rush to Grab U.S. Rate Break
“This was supposed to be the year that U.S. mortgage rates soared. Instead, they’re retreating.
The decline in borrowing costs has so far done little to spur sales, which have been weighed down by tight credit and lower than normal inventory levels.
Mortgage originations in the first quarter declined 58 percent from a year earlier to $235 billion, the lowest in 14 years”
There is no “pent-up” demand
There is no household formation
There are no jobs
There is no recovery
“There are no jobs”
+1 Even Willie Sutton had to “pull a job.”
“This was supposed to be the year that U.S. mortgage rates soared. Instead, they’re retreating.”
Shouldn’t we be hearing buy now or be priced in forever?
Yup! In late 2005 and thru 2006.
Where do the buckets of cash come from that fund all-cash home purchases?
OPM = ATM
Ax Lola, he wants the OPM of Messiahcare so he can get a vuvuzela transplant covered as a preexisting condition.
Cash out refi on existing shacks.
More Ponzi finance, in other words.
Maybe this time is different, but last time the tower of highly-leveraged speculative real estate purchases ended up in an all-out collapse.
A buyer I know borrowed the funds from family, and will get a mortgage once they close to repay the loan. The decision to go all cash was related to being able to forgo appraisals and underwriting, made their offer more attractive to the seller.
Their losses will be incalculable I am sure.
You’ve got your own losses to worry about Idjits.
Dang, you must know a lot of rich people, ibbots. It’s like you live in a fantasy world. Construction guys are all multimillionaires, and kids all have rich families who will give them cash so they can overpay for real estate. Not because they need help from mommie, no. They could easily get a mortgage. They just WANT to overpay, so mommie will make it happen.
You remind me of a shill who used to post here years ago. I used to call BS all the time. I can’t remember her handle. At any rate, she disappeared into the crash, and so will you.
It’s called rent-seeking behavior. All cash for solid but ugly homes in the 40-50k range. Just need the patience to wait out the sellers to get the price you want, then give your workers get the place ready to rent.
For 70k total outlay, you end up with a place that will rent for approx. 1400-1500 in my area. The key is to find houses that are ugly or require repairs that potential owner-occupants will not consider touching. When thieves steal all the copper piping or the air conditioner unit in foreclosed homes… landlords win.
Liberace!
Liberace!
Oh Liberace the tall tales you tell. $1500/month rentals don’t translate into $70k houses…. or even $130k houses. Try $260k but I’ve schooled you on that before.
You’re a persistent little troll though.
Exposed as a wannabe slumlord, the scion of slumlords.
The numbers don’t work without lies to someone.
[whistle] C’mere trollholio!
You’re lying.
How is providing an _average_ (not fancy) house in a safe area being a slumlord? The Canton/Brewers Hill area is full of young white kidz.
I just have no interesting in tray ceilings, exposed brick walls, “breakfast bars”, skylights, roof decks, and all that other nonsense that people put into owner-occupied housing.
Go on craigslist and see what you can rent south of Patterson Park and within walking distance of Canton Square for less than 1500/month. Zip code is 21224 if that helps. Show me what you find.
And you bought it for 70K?
Anything bought for 70 k makes you a slumlord there.
That’s for an ugly house (sometimes formstone instead of brick) with old windows, floors that have seen better days, and so forth. Like I said, many times they are missing wiring or piping (piping is OK, pex is cheap).
It also depends on having a realtor willing to push FNME on some of these HomePath houses and to tell other people who might offer more that “there is already an offer”. (Which is how I found out about this HomePath nonsense–I was pissed off a few times back in 2011 when I was in the market, bc I’d go see a HomePath house and the realtor steared me away from “wasting my time” bidding. Turns out, they were trying to sell it to an investor.)
HomePath really is a pile of s___ for taxpayers. These are good homes, just not ones you can normally get a loan on bc of missing pipes/wiring/stove/water heater/etc. So Homepath offers financing despite this, except that it also tips off investors that it’s a beaten-down house they can try to steal.
1500/month rentals don’t translate into $70k houses…. or even $130k houses Liberace.
Studio apartments in my vicinity go for 1500. Two BR puts you over 2k in anything decent.
If you want to look up properties, look up:
The Gunther (thegunther dot com)
Domain at Brewers Hill (domainbh dot com)
Hanover Brewers Hill ( www dot hanoverbrewershill dot com )
We don’t rent to fancy people and have no interest in doing that. Most of those tenants will buy their own places in a yr or two anyway. Better to rent to people who truly need the place. Much less picky, much less need for LL to invest in keeping up with the Joneses.
If you pulled your head out of your roomy posterior, you’d see that ugly houses in gentrifying areas tend to work out well for rent-seekers. See also Brooklyn NY or U Street in DC. Tons of people are priced out of buying “nice” houses but completely able to (over) pay to rent a place in a safe, up-and-coming area.
Good job mixing up those lies Liberace. Even threw a few substitutes in there to cement your internet frauding.
You’re backpedalling again Liberace.
RAL, not sure why you assume that the RE market is always efficient. Your whole schtick is based on the premise that realtors (TM) lie. So why would it surprise you that realtors funnel below-market properties to people who will give them repeat business? Anyone who is aggressive and wants to find out which realtors will play the game can easily do so. I just look on redfin for HomePath (Fannie) homes, call the listed agent, and set up a time to see the place. Then I try to vet the realtor to see if they’ll submit a lowball offer and persuade Fannie to take it. It shouldn’t surprise you that some realtors are stupid to realize this is how the game is played. (Hard to tell if they are stupid or actually ethical.)
When I first found out that you can buy a HomePath property for all cash and that you can rent it out, I was sort of outraged (as a taxpayer, after the Fannie bail out). Then I realized it was just another market inefficiency that needs to be explored.
Your statements have nothing to do with me, RAL or anyone else here. They are yours Liberace. $1500/month rentals don’t translate into $70k houses…. or even $130k houses.
Stick with fixing cars.
We don’t rent…
Who is this “we”?
Buy-to-let is rent-seeking? Maybe it is, in a sense.
That kind of pricing was available in 2010-2011, but not now.
Share of home buyers paying cash reaches new high
Pamela M. Prah, Pew/Stateline Staff Writer
10:09 a.m. EDT May 29, 2014
Cash is king, especially for those buying homes in Florida: A stunning 64% of all home sales in early 2014 in Florida were cash-only purchases.
New York (59%) and Alabama (56%) rounded out the top three states with the highest percentage of buyers plopping down cash instead of taking out mortgages to buy residential properties, according to new figures from RealtyTrac, a California-based firm that tracks and analyzes housing data.
Even in states such as Colorado, where only a third of home purchases in the first quarter of 2014 were all-cash transactions, the trend is evident. Greg Smith, a Denver-area broker owner at RE/MAX Alliance, said “cash offers are winning the bidding wars” more and more often.
Nationwide, nearly 43% of all home sales in the first quarter of 2014 were all-cash purchases, up from nearly 38% in the fourth quarter of 2013 and 19% in the first quarter of 2013. The figure for the first quarter of 2014 is the highest since RealtyTrac began tracking all-cash sales in 2011.
Fifty-four percent of the cash-only buyers were individual investors or people purchasing second homes, as opposed to buyers purchasing a primary residence.
“Strict lending standards combined with low inventory continue to give the advantage to investors and other cash buyers in this housing market,” said Daren Blomquist, vice president at RealtyTrac.
…
“Share of home buyers paying cash reaches new high”
I had no idea that putting your house into hoc with a bank in return for cash is actually “paying cash”.
This is simply making the housing price bottom even further down.
Those “second” homes in Florida are probably gonna-retire-here homes bought by boomers. If a boomer couple did everything reasonably right, then they would have no problem putting together $75-90K cash for a turnkey house in FL. They don’t need to HELOC or even sell the north house.
Nationwide is 43 percent, more than doubling since last year. Not all in Florida, but I enjoy your desperate rationalization.
Anytime anything in the real estate market moves at the pace of doubling in a year, any metric, that is a sign of trouble.
I think the number of shills here has doubled also in the last year.
“If”?
If only money grew on trees.
Boomers don’t save. Saving is irresponsible.
Fifty-four percent of the cash-only buyers were individual investors or people purchasing second homes, as opposed to buyers purchasing a primary residence.
In other words, the crazy flippers went in whole hog thinking they could capture outsized bubble profits. They are too late because the institutional investors who had inside info bought earlier and cheaper and are now admittedly dumping as confirmed by numerous shills here.
Zillow may say it but no one will buy it at that price.
Strict lending standards combined with low inventory continue to give the advantage to investors and other cash buyers in this housing market,”
There is absolutely no evidence for this BS claim about strict lending standards being a cause. It’s just a convenient lie. Strict lending standards = anything tighter than fog a mirror.
And you “progressives” on this board ought to be ashamed of yourselves for carrying water for a guy that will absolutely hurt poor people by loosening up again. Easy credit ripoffs, ain’t we lucky we got em, Good Times.
Here’s a question: will we get to the point where everyone who could pay “cash” already has?
I don’t know, but we might be getting there already, as evidenced by recent anecdotes in articles about buyers with down-payments of 50%, 60%, or 70%.
These big-down-payment people obviously can’t scrape together enough money to go all-cash (or scrape together the weird combo of temporary cash sources to buy first and get loan after). So they’re both a) tying up hundreds of thousands of cold hard cash, and b) financing up the wazoo. At the same time. At all-time-high prices.
It could be the last gasp of the all-cash phenomenon. Possibly: we’re about to run low on all-cash buyers, so what’s left are the latecomers stretching to pay mostly-cash. When that supply is exhausted, then it’s half-cash. Eventually, all the private cash available for RE will be (is?) already locked down in these illiquid assets.
This theory doesn’t take into account the institutional investors with seemingly limitless liquidity though, so who knows?
The institutional investors have yet to show a profit.
True, dat.
They’re also getting into trouble over how they’re not maintaining and repairing the houses. There’s this thing called landlord-tenant law. And it’s biting them in the posterior.
Do you expect the QE3 taper will hammer your stocks?
Stocks could fall 15% to 20% as ‘QE fluff’ comes out of the market
May 29, 2014, 2:59 PM ET
Stock investors, brace yourselves for a nasty correction.
The S&P 500 (SPX +0.54%) could fall 15% to 20% this year as the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds, according to Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.
The chart above shows how the S&P 500 reacted in the periods after the Federal Reserve stopped its first two quantitative easing programs. After the Fed stopped buying bonds in March 2010, the S&P 500 dropped 16% from its highest point on April 23, 2010 to its lowest point on July 2, 2010. The second program drew to a close at the end of June 2011 and was followed by a 19% decline between July 7 and October 3 of that year.
The Fed currently buys $45 billion in Treasury and mortgage debt each month. The central bank has cut the size of its bond-buying program by $10 billion at the last four meetings as it moves to normalize monetary policy after a period of unprecedented stimulus.
“This market is being supported by Fed policy. When you take one of those crutches away, you are going to get a negative effect on the stock market,” Boockvar said in an interview.
…
Get pumped for a summer melt-up — followed by a ‘nasty correction’
May 29, 2014, 1:54 PM ET
In an environment where equity and credit markets just won’t quit, Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s crystal ball has some good news and some bad news for investors. We’ll be kind and start with the good news.
Those two markets are likely bound for a summer of gains — verging on “irrational exuberance” — with all of the conditions aligning for a melt-up, the investment bank’s researchers predict. For one, measures of value at risk are low, suggesting that a build-up of short positions may get squeezed out of the market, perpetuating gains. In a note circulated Thursday, researchers led by Michael Hartnett write:
…
Might as well be in a casino. All rigged. They will press the button when they want you to lose.
“They will press the button when they want you to lose.”
+1 Hehe, so true.
That’s when I’m entering the game, to ride the pump and dump cycle back to the top and get out before the toilet flushes the next time.
I know. My cash won’t flow into stocks until after the button is pressed. I don’t care how many Boomers call me names for it, but I am a conservative investor. The Boomers always get mad at conservative investors because Boomers depend on my generation to buy their overpriced poo. I have been called “irresponsible” for not always buying stocks with every paycheck.
I’m within the parameters of that wicked Boomer demographic. And I’m also a conservative investor.
So, count me as one who’s on your side.
Global stock market at all-time high, powered by U.S., European rallies
May 29, 2014, 4:58 PM ET
It’s not just the S&P 500 (SPX +0.54%) dancing at all-time highs.
The MSCI World Index also has been setting new records this month, as shown in the above chart.
U.S. equities account for 54.6% of the MSCI World Index, so it’s no surprise the global benchmark is joining in the record-breaking action.
Having European stocks reaching fresh six-year peaks also helps.
The MSCI World Index is made up of large- and mid-cap stocks across 23 developed-market nations.
You want emerging-market exposure, too? Then go to the MSCI All Country World Index, which has DM and EM constituents. That index is nearing its October 2007 record (as shown below), while the MSCI World Index first topped its October 2007 peak back in March.
…
Is the post-2008 crash aftershock nearly upon us by now?
ft dot com
Trading Post
Last updated: May 29, 2014 8:50 am
Treasury yields may not stay low for long
By Jamie Chisholm
Regular readers will be aware of the debate raging over why Treasury yields are so low while economic growth improves and stocks sit at new highs.
As we have noted, one reason given for this is that US 10-year yields of about 2.50 per cent are attractive relative to Bunds of sub 1.40 per cent, the latter pressured by hopes for further European Central Bank easing.
But hold on, warns Capital Economics, there are at least three reasons why more ECB largesse “would not prevent yields from rising in the US this year and next”.
First, CapEco is sceptical Mr Draghi will take bold action, falling “short of the large-scale QE that might be a game-changer for the bond markets”. Surely some easing is already priced in.
Next, we can’t take for granted that more monetary stimulus will deliver lower eurozone yields, anyway.
…
Finally, domestic factors are the main yield driver. “The next move in monetary policy in the US (and UK) is still likely to be towards tightening.”
I don’t think anything can hammer stocks, it seems. They’ll just change from one kind of steroid to a other.
“Rectal Data Extraction” (RDE)
Thank you, dwkunkel.
Right where our housing liars speak from.
OK, guys! Here’s some eye candy!
http://tinyurl.com/o7enbx3
“MISSOURI MAN SENTENCED TO FOUR YEARS IN FEDERAL PRISON FOR
DEFRAUDING TARP BANK”
– Doesn’t say whether or not he’s a realtard. Gotta be, though, to have his pasty white fingers in that trough.
As the Puss would say, BWAAAAHAAAAAHAAAAA.
4 years for bilking a bank out of 5 million? Where do I sign up?
Where do I sign up?
Assuming he got to keep the 5mil, uhh—yeah!
Getting paid $1.25M/yr to spend time in a minimum security facility? What a deal!
Criminals usually bury their spoils, don’t they? We should go looking for it.
As the Puss would say
Paraphrased:
“Brazil will be in a great depression by 2012 when its house values will crater and by 2013 it will be an epic Great Depression like none ever seen.”
Yawn.
Standing on the corner,
Selling vuvuzela,
Waiting for the FIFA throngs,
In a Mango colored thong
Housing depreciates. What are your losses to housing depreciation?
Nothing.
Renters don’t have these problems…
People here will argue day in and day out about whether they should have bought some time in the last few years. But everyone here agrees NOW is not a good time to buy. Everyone.
This is why the market is going down.
Based on price/rent, rent has been a fraction of the cost of buying since 2000.
And TODAY it is much worse than anytime in the last 5 years. There seems to be consensus on this, don’t buy NOW. This is a big deal. No more buy now or be priced out psychology. It should strike daggers of fear into the hearts of the shills here.
“But everyone here agrees NOW is not a good time to buy. Everyone. This is why the market is going down.”
That sums the consensus up pretty well.
Renters don’t have these problems…
Yeah, because the house they live in is already worth 0 to them. If you mean deterioration, yeah, renters may not fix the problem, but they do pay for it. Ask Professor Broken Sprinkler.
Not true Mz. Craterton. Landlord expenses are never automatic passthrough to the end user.
Now you keep avoiding discussing your losses to depreciation. Why is that?
You’re sinking deeper and deeper underwater every day…
Look, this is just silly. I’m in a place going on three years. Rent always been the same. I didn’t pay for the new water softener, the plumber to fix the toilet and bath, the sprinkler heads, etc. that was not a pass through.
I’m in a house over 24 years, 10 of those mortgage-free. The land the house sits on is worth what I paid for the house plus what I’ve put into improvements and maintenance. I don’t care that the house has “depreciated”. My annual costs are property taxes and maintenance, which are far less than rent for a comparable property, IF I could find one.
So you smarmy, know-it-all loosers ask yourselves: how is this in any way a bad thing?
The land the house sits on is worth what I paid for the house plus what I’ve put into improvements and maintenance.
Classic fail in ignoring the time-value of money. The dollars that you spent 24yrs ago were worth FAR more than the dollars that you are comparing them against today—and you are not adjusting for that.
True about inflation. But Prime, 24 years ago all I had to pay was how-much-a-month
and the improvements were done over time, the largest of them quite recently. Going forward, if we are lucky enough to stay in the house another 20 or 25 years, expenses will remain taxes + maintenance. The value of the land is unlikely to crater. In what scenario would renting have been better?
It is true that if you bought long enough ago, you are largely sheltered from the harm of the bubble.
However, extrapolating from that historical experience, into today’s very different set of circumstances, would be fraught with peril.
I’m in a house over 24 years, 10 of those mortgage-free.
“Eleanor” you make my point. 24 YEARS AGO. C’mon. I wish I could buy a house 24 years ago. You probably put 20 percent down.
e-Lola out of closet: Confirmed
“I’m in a house over 24 years, 10 of those mortgage-free.”
+1 I’m in my house 11-yrs, the last 2-yrs mortgage free. The lack of a mortgage payment is what will enable me to sent my daughter to college without taking on any student loans.
I will admit that a spec-house, probably any house, is continuously falling apart. All the door knobs, light switches, water faucets, etc., are cheap-azz Ace Hardware junk. Sort of reminds me of the Navy guys chipping rust and repainting…never finished.
All these people paying their houses off in ten years. Good for you, seriously, I’m proud of you. But yeah, that ain’t the norm.
Texas Immigrant Invasion - Fed Response
Andy Adame, a spokesman for the Border Patrol in Tucson, confirmed that over the weekend federal officials flew about 400 migrants apprehended in the Rio Grande Valley of Texas to Tucson to be processed. He said the migrants were flown to Arizona because the Border Patrol does not have enough manpower to handle a surge in illegal immigrants in south Texas.
“To be processed” means they take them to a Greyhound bus depot and let them go!!! This is just crazy in so many ways.
http://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/2014/05/29/scores-undocumented-migrants-dropped-arizona/9707503/
Somebody needs to ask Hillary her opinion on amnesty and all this stroke of the pen shamnesty. Ask her now, while it matters. Nobody will.
First they will amnesty the eleven million. Then, thanks to the family reunification “chain migration” policy enacted by sh*tbag Teddy Kennedy, another fifty million will follow.
Every single one of whom will vote Democrat for life
Its all Teddy’s fault?
A Reagan Legacy: Amnesty For Illegal Immigrants
“in 1986, Ronald Reagan signed a sweeping immigration reform bill into law. It was sold as a crackdown: There would be tighter security at the Mexican border, and employers would face strict penalties for hiring undocumented workers.
But the bill also made any immigrant who’d entered the country before 1982 eligible for amnesty — a word not usually associated with the father of modern conservatism. ”
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=128303672
Let there be no misunderstanding, both parties love illegals.
the base of one of the parties does not love illegals, only the leadership.
Immigration like housing, the obesity “crisis”, education, welfare, disability, college costs, etc. It is all easily fixable with readily apparent solutions. These solutions are never on the two party menu. Just order your Big Mac and shut up.
That’s great to hear that so many problems are so easily fixed, especially disabiity. My uncle is severly disabled due to medical malpractice. I’m sure that he’d love to hear your ideas on ow to fix his disability.
Fix disability by kicking the recipients of fraudulent benefits off the roles. Then there is plenty of money for your uncle.
I thought the White House was trying to say that Arizona is not allowed to enforce laws against illegal immigration. So how do they justify flying illegals into Arizona, and then telling Arizona to enforce the law? I sure hope that Arizona gives these people bus tickets to Washington, DC.
They just let them go. Charitable entities and people went down there and rescued them. I’m not even sure they gave them any money for expenses. Just dropped them off.
Yeah, and we’re real thrilled about it here in Tucson.
Excuse the ot, but this is way cool!
SpaceX founder Elon Musk unveils spacecraft to ferry astronauts
http://abc7.com/science/elon-musk-unveils-dragon-v2-spacecraft/84947/
What’s a “ferry astronaut”?
SpaceX founder Elon Musk unveils spacecraft to ferry astronauts
Not a moment too soon, as the Russians are threatening to not transport Americans to the ISS. They are also threatening to withhold rocket engines from United Launch Alliance.
Musk must be grinning from ear to ear. Of course his space capsule won’t be ready until 2016.
Real Estate is now global. It’s no longer a US fundamentals and local employment phenomenon.
Combotechie linked the velocity of money M2 chart yesterday. Thank you.
With the dismal retail 1st qtr 2014 report, I was wondering about that.
Thanks for the phony exhortation.
In the meantime, demand continues to collapse and inventory billows.
Demand collapses because everyone agrees do not buy now. You can’t buy a head of lettuce or a house last year. But you can buy tomorrow or next year. Just don’t buy now.
There don’t seem to be a lot of “global” investors flocking to Phoenix. I’d bet it is like that for the vast majority of markets. Ignore San Francisco, LA, NYC and DC unless you actually live there, in which case you should move.
I was in Phoenix over the last week. Talked to a realtor at one of the major groups and he even admitted that the market was softening from last year. He even said that the builders are now coming to them to try and rent out many of the new homes they built over the last year. That market’s one year party is already over.
Here in Tucson, a pause seems to have hit the real estate price appreciation party. Aw, darn.
Builders renting out newly built homes? That is something I never heard of. Anyone ever heard of this? Sounds crazy nutso, like everything else with this eternal bubble.
“Combotechie linked the velocity of money M2 chart yesterday. Thank you.”
You are welcome. Here it is again:
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2V
Cash is king.
Then Inchy, how do you explain spending half a million on a rather nondescript little house in your locale? Is this based on what you would earn living somewhere else? Hard to understand!
Hi Inchbyinch,
One of my kids friends is moving to Phoenix the family listed and sold their home in Moorpark for almost 600K
Didn’t take long
cactus
Great and not so great. Property Taxes/Home Prices- It sucks! If we were to sell, we’d make a net profit on ours.
I gotta tell you, Simi is a far right nut job, drunk on religion, horrible library town . We’re trying to adjust. We are bummed Borders closed. Had to explain what an EE is to a neighbor. Hubby explained STEM. Weird bubble of ignorance in Central Simi.
Inch:
When did real estate switch over to “global” status? Was there once a law forbidding foreigners to buy in the United States? I could have sworn that there was no change in that regard. If there hasn’t been a change in the fact, then the fact cannot be used to explain changing prices.
There is a great article in the New Yorker recently about what’s happening in prime real estate cities with foreign investors. New patterns are emerging. I linked it last week. Good read.
Oh I see… Someone “wrote an article”. “Prime real estate cities” eh?
LOL
Excuse the ot, but this is way cool.
SpaceX founder Elon Musk unveils spacecraft to ferry astronauts
http://abc7.com/science/elon-musk-unveils-dragon-v2-spacecraft/84947/
And 5 years from now, Musk will be a broke penniless man.
He’s been a broke, penniless man before and come back.
He’s impressive.
He’s more impressive when he’s broke.
HA
Funny coming from a guy with so much time on his hands, he’s a HBB post addict. Musk is an amazing person. When you achieve his level of success, then we’ll talk.
Speaking of broke, down and busted.
post addict?
“Excuse the ot, but this is way cool.”
That thing looks like a tech mogul’s canopy bed for the kidz.
rms
LOL. Good one.
In my former networking group, a lot of the EEs were trying for, or interviewing SpaceX. Not one got a job in the in the timeframe I was in the group.
Wall Street Journal - When Deadlines Help Sell Houses
“Want to get people moving? Set a due date. In real estate, deadlines bring results — and high returns.
So far this year, 58% of home listings with published offer deadlines sold above list price, according to an analysis of 37 major metropolitan markets in the U.S. by real estate brokerage Redfin. Listings with offer deadlines also averaged 31 days on the market, compared with 61 days for listings without published deadlines.
Offer deadlines are typically short — just a few days — and appeal to sellers because they can evaluate all offers at once. Setting a deadline expresses confidence in a property and price, and in some cases, can spark a bidding war.”
Subscriber paywall article Borrowers Tap Their Homes at a Hot Clip also notes that Helocs Jumped 8% in the First Quarter
Get it now while it’s hot. Do people really fall for this?
And this is another BS stat proving nothing. Maybe they didn’t sell so quickly because of the offer deadline, maybe they were able to include the deadline because they knew they were in a crazy market. Self selection bias.
BS stat proving nothing = red herring
I should probably read other comments before posting my own. Now I look like a copy cat.
“So far this year, 58% of home listings with published offer deadlines sold above list price, according to an analysis of 37 major metropolitan markets in the U.S. by real estate brokerage Redfin.”
Sounds to me like the reddest of herrings. It’s the oldest sales scam in the book: ‘Buy now or lose out forever.’
And only a seller in a hot market would ever do anything like that, too.
Fox Business article linked from Google News
“U.S. consumer spending fell for the first time in a year in April, but there are signs inflation is stirring, with an inflation gauge rising at its quickest pace since November 2012.
The Commerce Department said on Friday consumer spending slipped 0.1 percent after rising by a revised 1.0 percent in March”
Because consumers don’t have any money
Because there is no recovery (except for the 1%)
Because the future belongs to Lucky Ducky
The U.S. is in a stagflationary depression
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery
After having the prices of all essential goods manipulated higher by dramatic amounts over the last generation(by shills of all parties), but not accounted for in the “inflation” numbers I know what will happen. They will just “fix the glitch.” Then inflation will be under control again.
College costs alone should be enough to spark a middle class revolt, add in medical costs and housing costs and there should be massive political unrest. Instead there is easy credit and iPhones. And Arby’s new brisket sandwich!
The economics nerds can argue about inflation versus price fixing, but the unquestionable reality for the overwhelming majority of Americans is that they are living in a stagflationary depression.
And I’ll reiterate my correct prediction that within a few decades, less than 15% of the U.S. will live at or above what could be considered a middle class lifestyle.
I think your prediction already came true now if you include actually owning a decent house in a good area (not rented from a bank) and sending kids to college as part of the middle lass lifestyle.
I think the prediction is true even if you do include those renting from a bank.
What did “middle class” look like before the Great Credit Expansion started in the ’50s?
1,000 ft2 house.
Maybe one car, eventually.
Zero Debt.
The middle class was also much smaller before the 1950s, maybe around goon’s 15%.
Demand continues to collapse regardless what it’s called.
“And Arby’s new brisket sandwich!”
+1 Innovation will save the economy.
Technically, the “middle class” shouldn’t be involved much in colleges.
Really? We must have pretty different ideas of middle class. I’ve always seen college as the middle class family’s aspiration for kids where parents maybe didn’t go to college.
When I was born, people didn’t need a college degree to be members of the middle class. Now they do.
Did you write elsewhere that you’re younger than the boomers? It’s possible that the people that you’re talking about were actually called working class at one point and reclassified by the media in an attempt to convince the population that nearly everyone in the country is middle class.
I don’t think there is a difference between working class and middle class. They both work. And it is a pretty broad swath to me, running from lower middle (stable jobs but maybe not very highly paid) to upper middle (degrees professionals that actually work every day). Just the way I see it, maybe not the way others do.
Your way of thinking is the more recent take on it. A lot of the people who would have been called working class at one time are now called lower middle class and many of the people who should just be called rich like to call themselves upper middle class.
So we’re nearly all in the same boat. Whether your job pays $25k or $250k, we’re all middle class now.
PS: The brisket is smoked for 13 hours. Didn’t you watch the video?
MarketWatch - Consumers growing more concerned about the economy
“Consumers grew more concerned this month about current and coming economic conditions, with a gauge of their sentiment dropping, according to data released Friday.”
How are those double-digit increases in health insurance premiums (thanks to Obamacare) beginning to ripple through the economy?
Within a few more years, the average American household will be spending 110% of their income to pay for housing, health care, student loans, and food
Welcome to the recoveryless recovery
There is no “pent-up” demand
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush, 2008
that’s not what he said…
I talked to a client yesterday, heavy construction, he has over $1M in business booked for each of the next several months.
I am sure his losses are incalculatible.
Wow. $1 million in the construction biz. It must be a huge outfit!
Silly Idgits. You know nothing of construction digits either.
There you go again!
“Comment by Ronald Reagan”
Hehe, that fugg’n Ronald (mommy?) Reagan. Banker’s shill.
This message sponsored by the National Association of Realtors®
I see beggars on every corner. I’m sure they are just about to spring into recovery mode though.
I talked to a client yesterday, heavy construction, he has over $1M in business booked for each of the next several months.
FWIW, booked business can be cancelled. I’m seeing the local builder boyz humming the theme song to Happy Days while they tool around in their brand new F-350 Diesels. That doesn’t mean they really know where their next meal is coming from.
Word
How are those double-digit increases in health insurance premiums (thanks to Obamacare) beginning to ripple through the economy?
FWIW, haven’t “double digit increases” been par for the course for the past 40 years? We tried all kinds of tricks to contain those increases: PPOs, HMOs, and now High Deductible plans, which still cost far more than low deductible plan did in the old day.
Don’t get me wrong, “Obamacare” sucks, but to blame increased premiums on it is disingenuous. Premiums have been skyrocketing as far back as I can remember.
My premiums actually went down, for better coverage.
I am still trying to calculate my losses from that.
Did you get a subsidy? If you did, then you must be old. You can thank all those broke young people for subsidizing your luxury, ibbots.
Did you get a subsidy? If you did, then you must be old.
Or poor—the poor get a huge subsidy as well.
In Colo
You’re assuming that ibbots has an Obamacare plan. My premiums stayed the same this year, and I don’t have an Obamacare plan.
Why do you guys assume everyone has one?
Why do you guys assume everyone has one?
Every policy is now an Obamacare policy; my understanding is that all health insurance must now meet the new requirements. It doesn’t matter where you buy it, or whether your employer guys it—the new regulations affect it.
Every policy is now an Obamacare policy; my understanding is that all health insurance must now meet the new requirements
Which every non junk policy already did.
Just to clarify, when I say “an Obamacare plan” I mean one of those plans sold on the exchanges, the ones that many here claim have no doctors on their networks.
I am neither old nor poor.
Nobody here cares.
Remember all the fuss over Bush giving a way a few hundred to everyone in tax rebates as a way to stimulate the economy?
Seems quite quaint today.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26ruw6/tens_of_thousands_of_belgian_savers_see_money/
https://www.bitcoinregime.com/2014/05/29/tens-of-thousands-of-belgian-savers-see-money-disappear-from-their-bank/
For what it’s worth, when I bought my house one of my considerations was that I was looking for a tangible asset that couldn’t just disappear out of my account.
IMO this kind of stuff will happen more and more as governments try to deal with their deficits. Burying or hiding precious metals is another way, but where do you hide it if you don’t own any land?
In the house? Safe deposit box? BullionVault and such? On your body?
Retroactive taxes are not legal in the United States. Why do people freak out about actions taken in Socialist European countries, acting like it might happen here next? It won’t happen here because it is not compatible with our legal or economic systems.
The people that freak out are the ones that thrive on being angry and afraid… your typical cable news viewers.
How many laws do you see the government following? They make up their own rules because they’re above the law.
How many times has a US person paid a retroactive tax?
Benghazi!
Second shift shills.
Gotta keep billing hours.
What about CA’s recent tax increase? That was passed in November and was retroactive for the whole year.
What tax are you talking about? I haven’t heard about it, so I can’t comment.
Prop 30 passed in November 2012.
It created tax brackets for higher income earners and increased taxes for those brackets and was retroactive to income earned from January of 2012.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Proposition_30_(2012)
Bloomberg - Manhattan Condo Prices Fall as Buyers Push Back
“Manhattan condominium prices fell in April by the most in more than three years, a sign the market is slowing during the busiest selling season.
Purchases and prices typically rise during the second quarter, traditionally an active time for New York real estate. Contracts to buy condos in April dropped 3.2 percent from the previous month and almost 14 percent from a year earlier”
Worthless, worthless housing
Even in New York City, worth less and less every day
“Worthless, worthless housing
Even in New York City, worth less and less every day”
You can say that again.
“You can say that again.”
New York City, worth less and less every day
San Francisco, worth less and less every day
Denver, worth less and less every day
Seattle, worth less and less every day
Los Angeles, worth less and less every day
Las Vegas, worth less and less every day
Phoenix, worth less and less every day
Dallas, worth less and less every day
Chicago, worth less and less every day
Miami, worth less and less every day
Washington DC, worth less and less every day
http://maine.craigslist.org/lab/4495470018.html
This person needs to ask a neighbor’s kid.
You can compost that stuff!
+1! And those older bags are already well on their way to being composted.
A precursor to the coming resource wars when there are 15 billion humanoids
Bloomberg - Food Replacing Oil as China M&A Target of Choice
“After spending the past decade and more than $200 billion acquiring mines and oilfields from Australia to Argentina, China’s attention is turning to food.
The world’s most populous nation is confronting a harsh reality: For every bushel of wheat or pound of beef the world produces, China will need almost half of that to keep its citizens fed.
China has 21 percent of the world’s population with just 9 percent of its arable land”
Got Soylent Green?
I think with modern agricultural techniques it won’t be a problem. Just their own land is enough to support them. Add in other countries to also sell to them and this really isn’t a problem.
I think it will be the reverse problem. We now produce too much food with too little labor. Too efficient in many areas and robots on the way. What are all those big bellies gonna do for a living?
That’s why Chinese people don’t complain about Monsanto. Without the accelerated horticulture that white people discovered, the overbreeding cultures would be doomed.
Go ahead and call me racis, I don’t care.
RAYCIS!
Yahoo News article linked from Drudge - World Bank sounds alarm on rising global food prices
“World food prices rose in the first quarter of the year for the first time since their all-time high in August 2012, driven by rising demand in China, drought in the United States and unrest in Ukraine.
Experts are concerned that rising prices will hurt the world’s most vulnerable and could foment food riots and other social unrest.
51 food riots have occurred in 37 countries since 2007, most of them linked to a jump in food prices”
The good news is we’re gonna be a lot thinner - Han Solo
Actually we’re gonna be a lot fatter. Those cheap Monsanto pseudo foods come with a later price.
Just don’t hog out. Cripes nothing is anyone’s fault.
World Bank sounds alarm on rising global food prices
I guess you can’t take a dump in your own kitchen without nasty repercussions. (Unless you have an IQ of 85 or are a Repub)
Climate Change: The Unseen Force Behind Rising Food Prices?
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/5434
That sneaking suspicion you get every time you arrive at the grocery checkout counter is right: food generally costs more than it did just 12 months ago. According to a recent statement presented to the U.S. House Committee on Agriculture, the Consumer Price Index, a measure of average prices for household and consumer goods, is projected to rise from 3.5 percent to 4.5 percent by year’s end. Prices are expected to remain high as global food production struggles to keep pace with the rising demand for commodities such as wheat and corn.
While governments and consumers decry the steady increase in food prices, groups like the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are taking a harder look at some of the factors contributing to this rise—including the role of climate change. Changing climatic conditions, in particular the decline in water availability, are forcing farmers to continually adapt their agricultural production. According to the FAO, climate change has both environmental and socioeconomic outcomes for agriculture: changes in the availability and quality of land, soil, and water resources, for example, are later reflected in crop performance, which causes prices to rise.
Climate change has been attributed to greater inconsistencies in agricultural conditions, ranging from more-erratic flood and drought cycles to longer growing seasons in typically colder climates. While the increase in Earth’s temperature is making some places wetter, it is also drying out already arid farming regions close to the Equator.
You and Dannyboy can go have a political circle jerk on this topic somewhere else.
And I’ll reiterate my unquestionably correct statement that climate change is caused by humanoids, and that barring some mass extinction event of the humanoid population, it’s only gonna get worse.
Thank you for not breeding.
If they slaughter enough of each other, food prices will go down.
China has 21 percent of the world’s population with just 9 percent of its arable land”
Now we know what they will be spending all their surplus dollars on.
Now we know what they will be spending all their surplus dollars on.
Foreign women, scotch and Brazilian soybeans.
And the Chinese women will spend their dollars on robotic men! Have you seen them, they’re hilarious. I don’t think they can take out the trash yet, though.
China has 21 percent of the world’s population with just 9 percent of its arable land”
FWIW
Brazil has the most unused arable land in the world. By far. However, Brazil is being racked by very strange weather patterns - drought, intense heat etc. Many scientists say its due to climate change but that can’t be true because AlGore flies first class about 30 times a year and is a Democrat.
Linked from Drudge - Time Magazine subscriber paywall article titled The Transgender Tipping Point
“Nearly a year after the Supreme Court legalized same-sex marriage, another social movement is poised to challenge deeply held cultural beliefs.”
Just another slip down the slippery slope to “man-on-dog” action that Rick Santorum warned us about
It’s time to take America back
It’s time to restore our future
Lola made the cover ?
Ah, the old “slippery slope” fallacy. Gotta love Repub rhetoric.
“Gotta love Repub rhetoric”
It goes both ways. Wait until the progressives go to war over transgender rights, expect their argument will be “if you don’t want to share the women’s restroom with people who were born male, then you are a racist” or something like that…
Women’s restrooms have stalls. I don’t see what the big deal is. What are you doing in the women’s restroom anyway?
“Wait until the progressives go to war…”
Check your privilege. Check in, too.
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-05-29 22:49:37
Does anyone else think it interesting that the bond market is telegraphic fear precisely when the stock market is showing none at all?
I had exactly the same thought, not just currently but many times in the post-2008 period: How can the stock market and the bond market keep moving in mutually contradictory directions, as regards the future outlook?
Right—this effect has been visible for quite some time. I think that I am particularly surprised right now, as I had previously assumed that this was a simple case of mis-pricing risk due to the distorting effects of QE.
However, in theory there is less QE going on now, by half, as compared to six months ago.
So shouldn’t the distortion be lessened (maybe by half) as well?
And yet, it is not.
Gold prices look delicious! Glad I sold some more of my former company stock - 500+% gains. Want to back up the truck and load up on metal but my buying month is November.
Time to buy the dip again?
‘Time to buy the dip again?’
YOLO
WAVERUNNER!
YOLO
Glad I sold some more of my former company stock - 500+%
The crony-capitalistic company that builds drones with our tax dollars?
“our tax dollars”
They’re not “your” tax dollars since you allegedly live in Brazil.
Thanks for playing…
Aren’t American expats supposed to pay income tax on foreign earned income?
All his income generation is “under the table.”
A job staffing company builds drones? What a riotard.
You paid 2 times rental rates for a depreciating asset like a house at 2005 prices. Now you have to stick with your script… we understand.
Its 845am pacific time. The west coast fraudsters will be trotting out their daily talking points soon. Yet Lola is still sleeping it off in a DC alley at noon.
< crater >
There is a house on Zillow that I have been tracking. The Messtimate on that house just went negative for the first time.
< / crater >
Scottsdale?
No, Cave Creek (I mean Crater Creek).
May 30, 2014, 8:55 a.m. EDT
My $40,000 in student loan debt is worth it
By Christine DiGangi, Credit.com
Alexis Moore couldn’t be happier about having student loans. To her, $40,000 isn’t debt; it’s a reasonable price to pay for pursuing her dreams.
“I looked at it as being an investment in myself,” Moore said. “For me, it was very empowering.”
Moore, 39, hasn’t entered repayment yet — she’s finishing law school at Northwestern California University, where she anticipates she’ll graduate in 2016. But she’s working hard to make sure her loan payments are affordable, because she knows how painful it is to drown in student loan debt.
In a previous career, she worked in student loan debt collection. She listened to borrowers talk about their regrets, wishing they hadn’t taken out so many loans or thinking they should have gotten a different degree. The biggest issue she heard when making collections calls was that when people took out loans, they didn’t think about what they were going to do with their education.
…
Student loans (by default) go mostly to people who have not been through college, have not bought a house, and probably have not bought a car. Can they really be expected to be rational about this decision? If the loans are backed by the government (they are), then I think the government should also impose restrictions on them. One restriction might be “the median income of people who graduate with this degree must be sufficient to repay the loan”.
Prudent lending standards do look at “Capacity”—e.g. ability to repay due to the ratio of payment-to-income.
It makes good sense to look at future-Capacity (e.g. expected income), and cap lending at some multiple of that.
Mr. Banker appreciates Alexis Moore. He also suggests she continue her further studies well into her 50’s by borrowing more money because it’s all worth it……to him!
“Moore, 39, hasn’t entered repayment yet…”
Back when I was a repossessor the biggest credit scammers were the people who worked in collections; they knew all the tricks of the trade.
Unfortunately the economy has more lawyers than it needs too.
I gave my 2 weeks notice today. It’s sad that I have to share this day with losers like Shinseki and Carney. Had I know I would have waited until Monday.
YOLO
Anyone not part of the killing or lying machine is a winner.
“I gave my 2 weeks notice today.”
+1 Major envy, CEO. Do you have another gig lined-up, or ‘ya going to do the porch monkey act for awhile?
http://maine.craigslist.org/fbh/4496425436.html