Bits Bucket for June 16, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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owning a home will make you feel like part of the community.
Amy?
Yep. Gotcha!
On the bright side, Amy did present a very clear disclaimer that she was a HOAX—and frankly, I thought was one of the more entertaining if vapidly shallow nom de plumes here…
Bulletin IMF cuts U.S. economic growth forecasts for 2014 and longer term »
June 16, 2014, 9:23 a.m. EDT
Apartment rent hikes are slowing — finally
By Amy Hoak, MarketWatch
Renters get some relief this year with rent jumps that aren’t quite as steep
…
This is good news for housing because it means renters can save larger down payments and qualify for a larger starter home than they thought they could afford.
You can’t climb the property ladder without stepping up to the first rung!
But they’ll never bother because renting is cheaper! Nice try, sweetie, now fetch me a sandwich.
I just got my 4,000th follower on Twitter, which is about 3,999 more followers than you’ll ever have. And I’ll have 5,000 by the end of the year, because more and more people want to hear good news about the housing market.
I just realized another $2700 in gains - a 530% gain for shares held two years. Did your crack shack depreciate by $50,000 last week?
And one of these days you’ll “realize” that living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
I got so much cash I can get me several Mustang 5.0 litre deals. Those babes are real!
“And one of these days you’ll “realize” that living in a rental will never feel like a real home.”
On the other hand living in a rental will never make you want to swallow a handful of pills or read a book in your car while it is parked in your garage with the engine running either.
U.S. foreclosures drive up suicide rate, study finds
Date:May 16, 2014
Source:Dartmouth College
Summary:The recent US foreclosure crisis contributed significantly to the nation’s jump in suicides, independent of other economic factors associated with the Great Recession, according to a study. The study is the first to ever show a correlation between foreclosure and suicide rates. The authors analyzed state-level foreclosure and suicide rates from 2005 to 2010. During that period, the U.S. suicide rate increased nearly 13 percent, and annual home foreclosures hit a record 2.9 million (in 2010).
The recent U.S. foreclosure crisis contributed significantly to the nation’s jump in suicides, independent of other economic factors associated with the Great Recession, according to a study by Dartmouth and Purdue professors publishing Monday.
The study, publishing in the June issue of the American Journal of Public Health and available online now, is the first to ever show a correlation between foreclosure and suicide rates.
The authors analyzed state-level foreclosure and suicide rates from 2005 to 2010. During that period, the U.S. suicide rate increased nearly 13 percent, and annual home foreclosures hit a record 2.9 million (in 2010).
“It seems that foreclosures affect suicide rates in two ways,” said co-author Jason Houle, assistant professor of sociology at Dartmouth College. “The loss of a home clearly impacts individuals and families, and can arouse feelings of loss, shame, or regret. At the same time, rising foreclosure rates affect entire communities because they’re associated with a number of community level resources and stresses, including an increase in crime, abandoned homes, and a sense of insecurity.”
The effects of foreclosures on suicides were strongest among adults 46 to 64 years old, who also experienced the highest increase in suicide rates during the recessionary period.
“Foreclosures are a unique suicide risk among the middle-aged,” Houle said. “Middle-aged adults are more likely to own homes and have a higher risk of home foreclosure. They’re also nearing retirement age, so losing assets at that stage in life is likely to have a profound effect on mental health and well-being.”
Houle’s co-author is Michael Light, assistant professor of sociology at Purdue University.
While other studies have shown links between economic cycles and suicide rates, this is the first to look specifically at foreclosures.
Their houses really must suck. Why renting makes you happiest.
Amy where’s that beer?
“Amy where’s that beer?”
She might be checking on her husband out in the garage.
Always the negative Nellies here, aren’t we?
Yes, there are some markets that are a bit bubbly (New York, San Francisco), but for most people, buying a home remains the best investment you’ll ever make.
“Yes, there are some markets that are a bit bubbly (New York, San Francisco), but for most people, buying a home remains the best investment you’ll ever make.”
If you cannot buy a cool loft in Manhattan or San Francisco, why bother buying?
Gloomsterness is not nice!
4000 twitter followers monetizes out to being worth about 59 bucks. Link on Drudge to all the bots creating fake followers. Anyone with a Marketwatch presence should have waaaay more. Barry Ritholtz has like 55,000.
how many of the “followers” out there are just other business people building their own networks. then the whole “review” business that goes under the guise of “reputation management”. you can’t trust reviews because of the whole fake review business going on. i tell my customer’s that until you’re ready to “jump in” all the way, why set up a profile on these sites so that your competition can post bogus bad stuff about you. just pondering.
I tried to follow you on twitter, but I am afraid of being kicked by donkeys.
Fraud
Renter for life.
Cheetos Beer Sandwich. In that order. Fetch woman!
Mom says no more x-box or netflix until you bring all the dirty dishes up out of the basement and put them in the dishwasher.
And you need to call Arby’s back about that job application, they could probably start you at 25 hours a week if you can actually get out of bed before noon.
Fetch. NOW.
Two sandwiches cause they are free. Gets to clip clopping.
Donkeys don’t need horseshoes…. a much more subtle clip clop.
Busted! It all makes sense now.
The community is broke and wishing they could quit their sh@@y jobs. Nice feeling.
Gotta reward the “job creators”.
——————–
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/6/12/ceo-pay-increase.html
CEO compensation has increased by 937 percent over the last three decades, according to a new study. The rise compares with a dismal 10.2 percent hike for the average U.S. worker over the same time frame, putting into stark contrast the relative fortunes of the superrich and everyday employees in an increasingly economically divided America.
The report, released by the Economic Policy Institute on Thursday, found that average CEO compensation, which includes stock bonuses, was $15.2 million in 2013, up 2.8 percent from 2012 and 21.7 percent since 2010. That increase follows a trend since 1978 of CEO pay outpacing other economic growth factors. EPI says the 937 percent rise in pay is more than double the rate that the stock market grew in the same years.
The mismatched pace between CEOs and the typical worker means that CEOs earned on average $295 for every dollar their employees earned in 2013.
The report is based on an analysis of a database of CEO pay for the largest 350 public companies in the U.S. from 1978 to 2013.
Numerous studies have outlined the growing divide between America’s rich and poor, in which stock prices continue to climb past their pre-recession peaks, even as tens of millions struggle to make ends meet.
EPI’s report shows that CEOs are not only pulling away from average workers, but from other highly paid ones as well. Research found that average CEO pay was 4.75 times greater in 2012 than the typical earnings of others within the top 0.1 percent of the economy, suggesting that CEO compensation has been untied from the market forces governing the vast majority of American workers, even those making millions a year.
pigmen gonna pig
The oinkin’ and squealin’ is on high right now as oil prices have rocketed. The talking heads have joined in the speculative orgy, cheerleading the entire way.
High oil, and munitions contracts! What’s not to like?
And the solution to this is more illegal labor? I asked yesterday what the theory was behind the claim that the GOP wants shamnesty and got almost no response. I agree with the claim that it seems many Repub politicians want it, I just can’t understand why when it will drive UP the cost of labor because they have to pay the newly legal higher wages.
Who said anything about illegal labor? I would like a closed border with well-managed legal migration that would provide a good mix of immigrants of various education/skill levels, from various parts of the world. We could allow less immigrants overall and be more choosy.
In any case, both parties are just using the immigration issue to distract voters and play to their bases. The reality is that neither party’s congressional delegation wants illegal immigration to stop. They just have different reasons for wanting it to continue. And it’s brilliant for them to pretend to care about stopping it… bc when they both fail, they can blame the other side. (Brilliant but sick.)
I wasn’t addressing specifically what you posted, but because you mentioned CEOs and everyone claims big business is for shamnesty, I threw it out there. Sorry if it hijacked you.
I agree with the claim that it seems many Repub politicians want it, I just can’t understand why when it will drive UP the cost of labor because they have to pay the newly legal higher wages.
Perhaps they might have to pay the new legal war slightly more but still labor rates are determined by supply and demand so it will not be much. However, where the Chamber of Commerce knows it will save money is due to the flood of new immigrants both legal and illegal that will occur in legalization will occur. As citizens, they can apply to have family members brought in and if denied they still can illegally bring them in and if caught they cannot be deported and will face a slap on the wrist for harboring them. It is the new flood of immigrants that the Chamber of Commerce wants. Also they do not have to worry about their workers being deported if they are legal.
I just can’t understand why when it will drive UP the cost of labor because they have to pay the newly legal higher wages.
Because an amnesty will trigger a new wave of illegal immigration, which will hope that someday they too will be granted amnesty. That’s what happened last time.
While driving through the San Joaquin Valley last week on the way to Yosemite, we went past mile after mile of hot, dry, dusty almond and olive groves. Harvesting crops in that climate is a job “no American would take”. Agriculture relies on illegal immigration for its survival.
Americans will work hard under difficult conditions as they do working oil rigs in North Dakota, however they will not do it for the price the growers want to pay, remove the illegals and the wages will go up and the crops will get picked and more automation will occur.
I actually agree with Ibequirkydan on this. You got sold a bill of goods on the “jobs Americans won’t do” Elanor. You’re eating out of their hands.
Farm work has always been done by ex-cons, students, and people of limited mental capacity. How do you think it got done before they started allowing all those illegals to come over? Did Americans used to starve?
Repubs don’t want to give actual legal status to the workers. They just want to take away all punishment for employing the workers or being the workers. It’s still shamnesty, but Repub shamnesty is WORSE than Dem shamnesty.
All these answers make no sense. They really don’t want the legals, but they are for making them legal so there will eventually be more illegals. They want to take away all punishments?
Cmon you gotta do better than that if you want to maintain they are equally for Shamnesty.
No, Republicans want a default shamnesty where the workers never gain the right to vote or collect social security, but their presence here is decriminalized, and they are subsidized by taxes during their productive working years only.
Liberace lying lawyer.
The inventory in the neighborhood area I watch is definitely up and also the price drops are increasing, both in the number if houses showing a price drop and the size of the drops. Just like that, boom, you can see the panic just by looking at the listings. So many dumbvestors trying to get out. The countertops are always the giveaway.
And they still sit.
This is PHX area, BTW. So hold on Auntie Fed, have hope.
are you in buckeye?
No, opposite end, Southeast Valley area. Can’t be more specific due to NSA and Lola hunting me down.
any buys in queen creek
“any buys in queen creek”
The only buys in QC at current prices are bye-byes.
Hold your powder.
Ha! I rent a place in Southeast Phoenix. Auntie is interested in Cave Creek way north. I like north Scottsdale 85266.
Papago Park is on my radar as an option near ASU. Prices never really dropped there like the Phoenix periphery.
I am sort of leery about south Scottsdale. Used to ride my mountain bike down the green belt all the way down and next to Tempe Town lake to Priest ave. Right north of the lake once I got chased by a junkyard dog. I was sure he was a Pit bull.
“I am sort of leery about south Scottsdale.”
Proximity to ASU is the primary concern, and south of the Salt River near the campus is even worse. I’d really prefer San Luis Obispo and CalPoly, but it’s likely going to remain beyond my reach within my useful lifespan. It’s frustrating that productive meritocracy has deteriorated so.
Is it snobby for me to say that you should avoid anything in Phoenix that is not preceded by the word “north”?
Is it snobby for me to say that you should avoid anything in Phoenix that is not preceded by the word “north”?
No. I prefer the north “whatever” in the Phoenix area for certain reasons and it’s not because of prestige or pretense.
Is it snobby for me to say that you should avoid anything in Phoenix that is not preceded by the word “north”?
It certainly depends what you are looking for. If it is good schools in an affordable neighborhood then “North” is out. Maybe if you bought years ago, but not now.
But it’s not for good schools in an affordable nabe - not for this 55 year old.
Woah I got my first AARP card in the mail the other day. Not joining though.
I came across this last night and saved it to post here as an example of the pathetic illiteracy that sometimes passes for “journalism”. This poor woman shouldn’t even be writing a thank you note, let alone a business article. The comments last night were absolutely vicious, and deservedly so. However, I notice this morning that they’ve been deleted. They should have deleted the story and left the comments, lol.
http://www.utahpeoplespost.com/2014/06/selected-industries-energy-healthcare-receiving-best-pay-raises/
“During recovery, pay raise in a few industries leads to raise in others. Workers become flexible to prefer a job with better option. The increase in pay has went down due to the sub par recovery.”
And that’s just the first paragraph. This is what happens in our sick education system, where “everybody is a star!”. The poor woman actually thinks she’s a journalist and can write articles.
Outsourced reporting to China or India?
Nope, my guess is it’s home grown. Amanda Pierce. Poor thing.
It reads just like one of our own CA housing shills, doesn’t it?
I’ve been in UT for years and never heard of this publication (I use the term loosely). I think I can see why.
I’m sure that person does not live in the United States. Sounds Indian.
denver 9news dot com - some homes sell in hours in denver metro
‘as the housing market in denver heats up and supply diminishes, some homes sit on the market for less than a day before being snatched up.
real estate experts say homes in the low hundred thousands are selling quickly, as demand increases and the number of homes on the market doesn’t.
9news contacted one real estate agent sunday morning who had an open house scheduled for the afternoon. she explained that she had put the home on the market on saturday and it was already under contract, so she had to cancel the open house.’
Can’t I sell in hours in any market by listing below the recent comps? (We’ve done this twice in different markets, at least sold within the course of one week with multiple offers by listing competitively, but maybe we just got lucky…)
Where does a “listing” show up first? On the MLS? It sure ain’t Zillow.
So to get the best deal, you’d need realtime access to the MLS, and this is really the only value from a Stealtor because they have a monopoly on that info? Do they routinely give customers such online access?
Speaking of this, I’d be interested in what one question you’d ask a Stealtor if you had to hire one for buying a house.
I think mine would be: Can you give me the contact information for three people I can call who you got a house for at a bargain price?
I’ve considered saying, “Do you know the one thing of real value that you could do for me? Give me your MLS login password.”
The only use for a buyers agent is to obtain information withheld by the real estate cartel. That pool of information is steadily shrinking, thanks to the alternative real estate sites and to increasing county property record information online.
Not to mention that it’s easier now than it’s ever been (to sell quickly), considering how quickly listing information propagates worldwide across the internet.
All it takes is a property without serious fundamental value issues (i.e. no foundation problems, not a former crack house, etc.), and a seller willing to meet the market wherever it may be.
I sold a washer and dryer like that. Within hours on craigslist. Just makes me think I should have asked for more money.
Are you planning to buy the dip on Iraq fears?
Here is another possible reason to consider dip buying:
June 16, 2014, 9:30 a.m. EDT
IMF cuts 2014, longer-term U.S. growth forecasts
By Steve Goldstein
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The International Monetary Fund cut its growth estimate for the U.S. to 2% for 2014, down from the 2.8% it projected in April. The IMF still expects 3% growth in 2015. Though there is a “meaningful” rebound, it won’t be enough to offset the first quarter that was hit by a harsh winter, inventory drawdowns, a still-struggling housing market and slower external demand, the IMF said. The IMF, in the Article IV consultation which it conducts with every member country annually, also forecasts weaker potential growth of “around 2%” for the next several years due to the effects of population aging and more modest prospects for productivity growth.
Linked from Drudge - Washington Times (Moonie rag that would have no traffic without Drudge links) Border agent laments gang members entering US: Why are we letting him in here?
“Border Patrol officials are swamped by the number of minors crossing illegally into the United States and frustrated that they can’t turn away known Mexican gang members.
Chris Cabrera, vice president of the National Border Patrol Council Local 3307 (union goons) in the Rio Grande Valley, said that confirmed gang members in Mexico — including those from Mara Salvatrucha (MS-13) — are coming into the country to be reunited with their families”
Drudge links to article written by “real journalists” at the Los Angeles Times
“The Rio Grande Valley has become ground zero for an unprecedented surge in families and unaccompanied children flooding across the Southwest border, creating what the Obama administration is calling a humanitarian crisis (that only more government programs and higher taxes can solve) as border officials struggle to accommodate (with more free sh*t for the Permanent Democrat Supermajority) new detainees. Largely from Central America, they are now arriving at a rate of more than 35,000 a month.
The number of children and teenagers traveling alone from Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador is expected to reach up to 90,000 across the Southwest border by the end of the year, along with a surge of families with children seeking safe passage into the U.S.”
Forward
And even those numbers are based on OLD data and projections, they will be easily doubled plus as word continues to spread.
I cant make this stuff up fast enough. Everytime I do by the end of the day there is a story confirming it.
more from the L.A. Times piece:
“Cabrera said agents are also concerned about unsanitary conditions, such as the practice of quarantining sick immigrants behind a piece of yellow tape, strung across the room, that does little to protect agents or fellow migrants.
Cleaning crews wipe the holding areas down regularly, but agents still fear contagious diseases, Cabrera said. “It’s not just the disease issues, but the sheer amount of filth that’s floating through the air.”
President Obama has directed federal agencies to address the widening crisis in the Rio Grande Valley, with new stopgap measures announced almost daily.”
New stopgap measures daily? Where have we seen that before from this administration? LOLZ
“the sheer amount of filth that’s floating through the air.”
I guess he hasn’t been to Washington. Filth attracts filth.
WASHington? Nope. FILTHington. District of Corruption.
Your brokerage account needs some attention ladies and gentlemen! Whatever percentage you have in cash / money market, you should up that percentage amount by 10% of your account or 20% of your account.
There are six months to the elections and the market will take a dump after that. You want to get some cash for good deals like HES, MA, KO, MCD (all the crappy junk food), XOM, CVX, WFC,HD, TGT, V, VZ, KR, CL, MO, PNW.
The last individual stocks I bought were in December or January into ALIAF, and the ETFs GDX and GDXJ. I bought enough gold mining funds and they are a hold for at least 15 years.
I am terrified of stocks. The thought of buying one makes me feel like there is a roach in the room somewhere, but I can’t see it. It could be lurking anywhere.
No you’re not terrified of stocks. You are the one who claims to time the market perfectly.
1 State Simply Oozing With Energy Potential
By now, most Americans have heard about the game-changing amount of natural gas found within the Marcellus Shale of Pennsylvania. That shale holds the largest amount of proved shale gas reserves in the nation. Because of that, it made Pennsylvania the second-largest holder of natural gas reserves in the nation.
However, what most Americans don’t know is that Pennsylvania is saturated with energy potential above and below the Marcellus Shale. That’s important not just for American energy independence hopes, but for investors in companies like Range Resources, EQT, and CONSOL Energy.
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/06/15/1-state-simply-oozing-with-energy-potential.aspx
FYI, things are getting ready to bust out in PA, if the state will allow it.
they have everyone feeling guilty about using power in CA.
Shoot I should buy a lottery ticket!
Al Gore finally said something I agree with - (regarding Edward Snowden)
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/06/10/al-gore-edward-snowden_n_5481093.html
And you did survive that trip to the dumpster the other day. You’re on a streak.
WOW the substantive thread has more posts than the bucket! Where my shills?
They are all out drinking, trying to drown out any conscious perception of their growing real estate investment losses.
Built for $55/ft² ? :
http://maine.craigslist.org/trd/4500782240.html
Something about the pictures in this ad speak to how cheapish a house really is in terms of what goes into it and yet this one in the photos probably is a $400,000 bungalow in Wells.
http://maine.craigslist.org/lab/4512492464.html
One of my neighbors just tried to proselytize this atheist yours truly, as I was headed out to check my mail. He is the one who brought it up: “do you believe in God?” and I don’t lie, so I said no. Then a five minute discussion. He was going int the spiel that he had 400 rumors removed, and all that. I am sorry. It does not make me change 47 years of my aristotelian metaphysics. Religionists don’t understand. They assume wrongly that atheism is a belief. It is lack of belief. Atheism is all about facts known so far. And the unknown is knowable. I told the guy I am sorry of he is disappointed and not to let my world view upset his. But please allow me to continue m world view because you will only annoy me.
My ex girlfriend is going through chemo and radiation for kidney cancer, stage 4 and she is instating in a trailer not far from the clinic.i don’t need any extra aggravation about “life after death.” I am about hoping for as much comfort as she can get right now while she hangs on.
400 rumors?
Ha ha - well you know…my fat index finger fell mostly on the r and not t but you just wanted me to bore you with this trivia about why I misstyped didn’t ya?
Would-be Detroit house scrapper injured when porch collapses on him
I didn’t see him but I heard a faint ‘help me, help me, help me.’ So I jet out my house, and I start panicking because I see him trapped underneath the house. He looked like ‘The Wizard of Oz’ where the house fell on top of the witch.”
Are you worried about getting trapped in your bond fund?
ft dot com
June 16, 2014 7:35 pm
Fed looks at exit fees on bond funds
By Tom Braithwaite, Tracy Alloway and Michael Mackenzie in New York and Gina Chon in Washington
Jeremy Stein, governor of the U.S. Federal Reserve, speaks during a discussion at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., U.S., on Thursday, Oct. 11, 2012. Stein said diminishing returns from Fed purchases of Treasury securities indicate the central bank should instead buy mortgage-backed debt. Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
Federal Reserve officials have discussed whether regulators should impose exit fees on bond funds to avert a potential run by investors, underlining concern about the vulnerability of the $10tn corporate bond market.
Officials are concerned that bond funds are becoming “shadow banks”, because investors can withdraw their money on demand, even though the assets held by the funds can be hard to sell in a crisis. The Fed discussions have taken place at a senior level but have not yet developed into formal policy, according to people familiar with the matter.
“So much activity in open-end corporate bond and loan funds is a little bit bank like,” Jeremy Stein, a Fed governor from 2012-14 told the Financial Times last month, just before he stepped down. “It may be the essence of shadow banking is … giving people a liquid claim on illiquid assets.”
In the wake of the financial crisis, tougher rules on capital and the abolition of in-house trading operations at major US banks have resulted in Wall Street pulling back from helping big funds buy and sell corporate bonds. Bank inventories of bonds have fallen almost three-quarters from their pre-crisis peak of $235bn, according to Fed data.
At the same time, US retail investors have pumped more than $1tn into bond funds since early 2009. This has created a boom environment for fixed income money managers, but raises the prospect of a massive disorganised flight of money out of the industry should interest rates rise sharply in the coming years.
Exit fees would seek to discourage retail investors from withdrawing funds, thereby making their claims less liquid and making a fire sale of the assets more unlikely.
Introducing exit fees would require a rule change by the Securities and Exchange Commission, which some commissioners would be expected to resist, according to others familiar with the matter.
Such fees could be highly unpopular with retail investors unable to access funds without paying a fee. But some in the industry would welcome them; BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, has called for international rules setting exit fees on some funds.
News, analysis and comment on the increasing scrutiny faced by the financial sector outside regular banks
Even as regulators worry about the potential of a sharp correction in the bond market, some investors are building a war chest to take advantage of it. BlueMountain Capital, the New York-based alternative asset manager, has stockpiled funds ready to be deployed when bond prices fall.
“If credit markets were to become stressed due to heavy mutual fund outflows, our funds with patient capital and flexible mandates would be in a position to capitalise on any dislocation,” said Andrew Feldstein, co-founder and chief executive of BlueMountain.
…
June 16, 2014, 8:46 a.m. EDT
Blinder: Looming Fed exit debate may hurt stocks
Debate likely to be loud and vociferous, former Fed vice chairman says
By Greg Robb, MarketWatch
Bloomberg
Alan Blinder, professor of economics at Princeton University, speaks during the Institute of International Finance Annual Membership Meeting in 2013.
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Alan Blinder believes the last year or so has been a period of relative agreement among hawks and doves on the U.S. central bank over the decision to taper its bond buying program.
But a fight is brewing over when to raise short-term interest rates and how fast to exit the massive stimulus program.
In an interview with MarketWatch, the professor of economics at Princeton University and the former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve thinks this “loud and vociferous” debate will definitely roil fixed-income markets and the volatility could spread to equity markets.
…