June 30, 2014

Some People May Be In For A Shock

The Santa Cruz Sentinel reports from California. “For the first time in 39 months, listings of single-family homes rose compared to a year ago, increasing from 633 to 662, up 4.6 percent, according to Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who tracks the numbers. The median price, the midpoint of what sold, was $675,000. The May median was the highest since February 2008, the year of the crash. Sales were slower compared to a year ago. ‘If it’s a good property, people should come in and make offer immediately or it’s gone,’ said Jerry Smeltzer of American Dream Realty, an agent with 37 years in the business.”

“A three-bedroom, two-bath home in Capitola was snapped up in nine days, sold for the asking price. ‘They wrote a letter that was heartwarming,’ said Don O’Regan, an agent with Thunderbird Real Estate representing the sellers, who ‘liked the idea of a young family moving in and building their own memories.’”

The Signal. “The typical house in Santa Clarita changed hands for $485,000 in May – even with April, and higher than any month since February 2008 when the price was $490,000. The all-time high came in April 2006 when the average house sold for $645,000. There were 663 active listings on Southland Regional Association of Realtors’s MLS at the end of May, up 74.0 percent over a year ago, the association reported. It was the highest inventory since April 2012 and has been slowly climbing from a recession-low of 312. ‘Even inventory is slowly growing, which expands options for buyers and reflects renewed optimism in the housing market,’ said Jim Link, SRAR CEO.”

The Glendale News Press. “The number of single-family homes and condominiums for sale grew last month, though these hikes were larger than in the past. There were 116 homes on the market last month, up almost 40% from 83 in May 2013, according to statistics compiled by Realtor Keith Sorem with Keller Williams in Glendale. For condos, there were 62 for sale last month, up a whopping 72% from 36 the same time a year ago. Realtor Ira Bland in La Crescenta said he is seeing some more housing inventory coming online, but there are a lot of potential sellers who are sitting on the sidelines. ‘There still are people who are underwater, so it’s difficult for them to do anything right now,’ he said.”

“Bland said one potential factor that could impact the housing market in the future is the number of homeowners who took out home-equity lines of credit before the housing-market bust. Some of those homeowners opted for a payment structure where they paid only on the interest for 10 years. They may be reaching the point where they’ll have to pay on the interest and principal soon, Bland said. ‘Some of those people may be in for a shock,’ he added.”

Capital Public Radio. “RealtyTrac’s home sales report for May show a 15 percent drop in California sales compared to a year ago. RealtyTrac’s Daren Blomquist says sales of bank-owned properties however were up a bit. Blomquist says banks are finally pushing through properties that have been lingering in the foreclosure process. He says there’s still a lot of foreclosures in limbo. ‘Properties that have started the process maybe two or three years ago that the banks are finally pushing through,’ says Blomquist.”

The New York Times. “A year ago, buying foreclosed homes to rent out was the sure-thing trade for investment firms, but some early investors are looking to cash out a bit by flipping homes to competitors. The Waypoint Real Estate Group, one of the first companies to raise money from private investors to buy foreclosed homes, is quietly shopping as many as 2,000 houses in California that it acquired in the last few years in several private investment funds, said three people who had been briefed on the matter.”

“The companies are finding that the most challenging part of the rental business is expanding their property management operations to deal with leaky toilets, damaged roofs and tenants who do not pay rent on time. ‘Most of these companies have 18-month track records as property managers, so they are still working out the operational details,’ said Michael Gutierrez, managing director of operational risk assessments at Morningstar Credit Ratings. ‘There have been growing pains.’”

The Desert Sun. “A growing number of price reductions are entering the Coachella Valley housing market, in part a result of sellers who were too optimistic last fall. Lowering prices is a common tool to attract buyers during the slower summer season.”

“‘I’ve seen a lot of reductions across the board in the last month, in all cities and price ranges,’ said Beverly Bell, a longtime HK Lane luxury real estate agent based in Palm Desert. ‘It’s not an uncommon thing to do. I also think that last fall, everybody was a little more optimistic thinking what season would be. It didn’t turn out to be quite what they thought it would be. Prices were a little bit too high because of that forecast. In all price ranges, when we do see the sale, they’ve had maybe one or two price reductions. Unless it’s a motivated seller, price reductions are from the lower end to all the way up into $2 million-plus.’”




RSS feed

66 Comments »

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 04:42:01

From Zillow:
“the housing market is hardly normal or balanced. The next few years will be marked by some localized volatility, a tough buying environment and slower growth.”

Three reasons why the US housing market won’t be back to normal anytime soon

http://qz.com/227683/three-reasons-why-the-us-housing-market-wont-be-back-to-normal-anytime-soon/

Recent housing data are noisy, and often conflicting—are we back to normal, or in another bubble? The truth is, compared to what we’ve been through, we’re much better off.
+

Nationally, home values were up 5.4% year-over-year at the end of May, and are expected to rise another 2.9% over the next year. But even as prices rise, home values largely remain below their pre-crash peaks. Currently, the median home in the US is valued at $172,300, down more than 12% from peak. Interest rates on a 30-year, fixed-rate mortgage, while up from the record lows of a year ago, are still incredibly low at about 4%.
+

These low prices and low rates are driving demand. According to a recent survey by Zillow, a real estate marketplace, more than 4 million current renters expressed a desire to buy a home within the next year.
+

And yet we aren’t back to normal, not by a long shot.
+

It’s been five long years since the worst of the recession. So why hasn’t the housing market normalized yet? For three main reasons:
+

The enormous and widespread decline in home values during the bust was unprecedented, and is still impacting the market.
Mortgage interest rates are historically low, boosting affordability nationwide and helping spur demand.
The huge decline in home values meant a huge spike in negative equity. It is near impossible for underwater borrowers, those owing more on their mortgage than their home is worth, to sell their home. This is constricting inventory while low prices and low rates goose demand.

These factors are slowly normalizing, but still represent major distortions in a market that remains unbalanced between buyers and sellers, homeowners and renters.

…..Most new household are turning to rent, which have been raising despite drop in home values. Since 2000, rents have grown by 52%, twice the pace of wage growth over the same time. Currently, in 90 large metro markets, renters are spending more than 30% of their income on rents.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 06:20:40

Recovered from your blackout so soon Lola?

Comment by WalmartShrimpRage
2014-06-30 06:32:43

I think he cant stop drowning his sorrows and is on an all night bender.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-06-30 05:29:50

and higher than any month since February 2008 when the price was $490,000. The all-time high came in April 2006 when the average house sold for $645,000.

>how about a price adj for inflation form 2005 may /june
the real all time high?????????????????????????????

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-06-30 06:08:05

Don’t kid yourself. Arguing that you paid less by paying more is silly. Arguing that your house cost less because the price of groceries went up is silly. Ability to pay has gone down yet the price of houses has gone up. That’s not inflation, that’s mania and debt absorption.

 
 
Comment by Doom
2014-06-30 06:05:40

Real Estate agent wrote ” they wrote a heartwarming letter” the same letters folks wrote during sub-prime.

That is why I keep preaching, no matter what, in a country this size there is always people to buy at any price, anytime, all it takes is the press proclaming all is well.

Out comes the pens and notepads begging to buy a overpriced CA. home?

Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-06-30 06:09:03

“… no matter what, in a country this size there is always people to buy at any price, anytime, all it takes is the press proclaming all is well.”

(chuckle)

Comment by Old Man in the OC
2014-06-30 21:01:04

people is singular (chuckle), if viewed by a narrow mind.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-06-30 06:27:54

begging to buy a overpriced CA. home ??

You can find a house in California for less than $75,000…Is that house overpriced ?? California is a big state with hundreds of different markets…Making that blanket statement just oozes of envy…

Now, if you want to say a overpriced home in “San Francisco” that has some credibility….

Comment by Doom
2014-06-30 06:37:13

As a long time property investor please let me know the location of these 75k homes I will buy 10 by Friday?

Comment by scdave
2014-06-30 07:02:29

let me know the location of these 75k homes I will buy 10 by Friday ??

Well, step up to the plate then because they are all over the place…Here is one in Visalia for you…

1847 W Prospect AV $60,000 2 3 2|0 1,138 7,791 Sqft Visalia

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 07:18:25

Don’t you already have a rapidly deprecating asset you’re underwater on?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Fang Nu
2014-06-30 07:29:01

Needles
Ludlow
Doggett
Barstow

Now what?
You’re going to seem pretty simple if you don’t break out that imaginary checkbook.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-06-30 10:35:57

“…please let me know the location of these 75k homes I will buy 10 by Friday?”

Keyboard cowboy.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Doom
2014-06-30 06:45:29

Sir blanket statement refers to most of, of course the exception can always be found, for the most part CA. Is a difficult place to own real estate for the many, of course people who have the means they don’t care where they buy ,they want what they want, no problem.

Comment by scdave
2014-06-30 07:06:47

of course people who have the means they don’t care where they buy ,they want what they want, no problem ??

Well, thats not necessarily unique to California real estate now is it ?? You could make that statement regarding some area’s in every state in the union…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Doom
2014-06-30 08:49:52

Look anyone here on this blog knows where I stand on RE and values. But I don’t comprise my stance to win a point. CA. is and will always be a sepetatly enity of buying and selling, just by the sheer size of it. That said, any person who thinks a 1957 house in Santa Monica that’s about 1700 sq. ft. and buys it for the asking price of $1.6 m, and you think because it is CA it is worth it, I feel sorry for.

 
 
Comment by Fang Nu
2014-06-30 07:31:34

So you’re saying this negates your blanket statement of show them to me and I will buy them?

There’s that simple part I anticipated.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Doom
2014-06-30 08:42:16

I will buy houses not lean-to property, do you get it or understand without looking it up on the net?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 18:43:09

They’re all dumps Junkie… Including yours.

 
 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-06-30 06:32:54

I thought the buyer had to write the letters and beg- feed sguirrels etc

Comment by Dale
2014-06-30 08:21:59

Mmmmmmmm……….squirrel.

 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2014-06-30 06:07:20

An astonishing discovery:

“The companies are finding that the most challenging part of the rental business is expanding their property management operations to deal with leaky toilets, damaged roofs and tenants who do not pay rent on time.”

But … but … my spreadsheet said it would all work out …

Boo-hoo-hoo.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-06-30 07:19:47

But … but … my spreadsheet said it would all work out …

Oh, it will work out fine for the companies (management) themselves—think of it a leveraged buy-out operation. They will float the properties to other investors all the while painting the books to make everything look ok, then continue to pay themselves excessive management fees while the investors slowly work out that they have been duped.

 
Comment by Jim A
2014-06-30 09:45:21

But “efficiencies of scale” - There are few efficiencies to be gained owning SFHs spread around an entire metropolitan area. And there is a big disadvantage to trying to use standard rental agreements across many jurisdictions which may not be enforceable under local law.

But “innovation” -Clogged toilets haven’t changed and neither have deadbeat tenants you might be able to make a deal with maintenance providers to shave a small amount off the cost, but I suspect that these people will more than lose that because they are new and inexperienced in the “spot the deadbeat tennant” game.

But the fed is pumping huge amounts of money into the financial system and we’re “dealmakers.” -A landlord-tenant relationship is a marriage, not a one night stand. These guys are “pick-up-artists,” this was NEVER going to end well.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 13:05:19

An interesting efficiency that I heard from one major owner…they make sure that they only buy appliances from Sears.

They then utilize Sear’s repairmen for service calls, while under warranty.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2014-06-30 12:51:21

The deadbeat tenant scenario is playing out next door to me. They were moving under cover of darkness last week.

This morning, their (now former) landlord’s worker was over there, emptying the house. They left some nice furniture. And a TV.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-06-30 13:13:53

If they think leaky toilets are bad, wait until the “spreadsheet” tells them to raise the rent 5% a year, every year.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-06-30 06:21:17

‘SAN ANGELO, Texas — Tick tock. The time to invest in real estate is still now — even if two years ago would have been better. “Investors are calling in from California, saying they don’t want to miss out on the action in San Angelo,” longtime San Angelo Realtor Scott Allison said.’

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 07:20:55

Dumb Californians. Clueless dumb Californians. They’re dumber and dumber with each passing day.

Comment by Avocado
2014-06-30 22:38:47

Who said they are “Californians?” Most likely Chinese.

 
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-06-30 07:33:13

Wow, that sounds just like 2005, doesn’t it?!?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 10:34:08

they don’t want to miss out on the action in San Angelo

I wouldn’t either.

I’ve got some fond memories of San Angelo,
and I’ve seen some beauty queens in El Paso,
but the best lookin women that I’ve ever seen,
have all been in Texas and all wearin jeans

Chorus:
I’m a country plowboy, not an urban cowboy,
and I dont ride bulls but I have fought some men,
drive a pickup truck,
trust in God and luck and I live to love Texas women.

Hank Williams Jr - Texas Women

 
Comment by sleepless_near_seattle
2014-07-01 01:16:46

SAN ANGELO??

That’s worse than Pocatello.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-06-30 06:34:20

?? are there many or any locals where you can buy an acre and build what you want?

zoning rules drive up costs-big time

Comment by aNYCdj
2014-06-30 06:37:45

Greenwich CT has 4 acre zoning for new homes… ..that’s a couple of mil$$ for the land, wonder if I can put a double wide on it.

 
Comment by oxide
2014-06-30 13:20:31

If you don’t care about schools or jobs, there are probably thousands of counties where you can plunk a Housing Analyst Special on a one-acre plot. And most of those plots are within a half-hour drive of a Wal-Mart.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 16:07:06

Donk,

Commutable to NYC. There are no jobs in NYC?

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-06-30 06:45:38

‘Despite the notoriety that subprime loans gained as a prime cause of the financial crisis, they are re-emerging, under much more careful control, as one answer to the tight lending standards that have shut out millions of would-be homeowners. “We call it the sane subprime,” said Brian O’Shaughnessy, chief executive of the Athas Capital Group, which gave the Arroyos their loan.’

‘According to mortgage data from Zillow, the number of lenders responding to inquiries from subprime borrowers started to catch up to the number responding to prime borrowers beginning in the fourth quarter of last year. Large banks are also looking at subprime borrowers because rising mortgage rates have killed off much of their refinancing business.’

‘Among the lenders preparing to make non-Q.M. loans is New Leaf Lending, a division of the Skyline Financial Corporation, based in Calabasas and run by William D. Dallas. In 2007, Mr. Dallas was a subprime lender who told The New York Times that investors had pushed him to make risky loans. “The market is paying me to do a no-income-verification loan more than it is paying me to do the full-documentation loans,” he said. “What would you do?”

‘Now, he says, the pendulum has swung too far the other way. “If you’re self-employed, you’re hosed,” Mr. Dallas said. “If you just started a job, you’re hosed. If you get a bonus, you’re hosed. Just got a severance payment? Can’t count that. I don’t have to do a lot to be a lender. I just have to be normal.” Banks have forgotten that loans are collateralized by the home itself, he said.’

Comment by taxpayers
2014-06-30 07:02:19

if they put 20% cash down they get a loan

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 07:24:22

… and lose the 20% plus 30 years of interest payments.

 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 07:15:05

How can a market make a “strong recovery” when it’s been going straight up for 6 years?

São Paulo, Brazil’s Housing Market Makes A Strong Recovery

http://sustainablecitiescollective.com/global-site-plans-grid/257706/s-o-paulo-brazil-s-housing-market-makes-strong-recovery

In 2013 more than 33,000 residential units were constructed in the city of São Paulo, Brazil, with an overall volume of sales exceeding U.S. $19 billion. If we consider the entire metropolitan area, the number grows to 58,000 homes and sales exceed U.S. $26 billion. Moreover, the sector accounted for 3.4 million formal jobs in Brazil. These results demonstrate the strong recovery of the housing market in the state capital over the last two years, resulting in an annual average of 27,000 new homes.

Some important factors contributed to the recovery, starting with the supply of credit. In 2013 U.S. $109 billion was lent to consumers for the final financing of the homes and for investment in construction. According to the Brazilian Association of Savings and Loan (ABECIP), this number is 32% higher than 2012. Many sources have recently reported a record sales of savings, which in 2013 ended the year with R $467 billion, 20% higher than in 2012, and there is no expectation of a contraction of credit in the short term.

…..Equally important has been the interest rate and the inflation rate. In 2013 we had the lowest historical interest rates in Brazil, with 7.25% per year. Even with successive increases, initiated since May, the Special Clearance and Escrow System (SELIC) rate in the single digits favored the expansion of the market. Inflation, despite having been at the extremely high rate of 5.90%, has not yet caused a decline of consumption.

The revitalization of the suburbs, with urban mobility infrastructure projects undertaken by the government, such as road systems, bus lanes and subways, among others, and also the private sector, with shopping malls and office buildings, has created new niche markets, adding a great boom to the real estate market.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-06-30 07:41:17

This is the US Lola.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-06-30 07:57:17

It’s a fantastic bubble, reported by one living in the mania.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 10:05:01

It’s a fantastic bubble, reported by one living in the mania.

Yea but…

 
 
 
Comment by Interested Observer
2014-06-30 09:47:54

As of 6/30/14 in Glendale:

134 active SF listings
62 active condo listings.

Condos about the same. SF looks like about a 15% increase from May in the number of listings.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-06-30 09:58:49

how long till CA revokes/renegs on prop 13 ?

need mo free sht for illegals etc
pensions for lifeguards

Comment by The Last non-EBT Family in America
2014-06-30 11:05:02

*more free shit *

ain’t that the truth! here in north Sacramento suburbs my middle school daughter’s friends mother runs out of “money” (govt benefits) every month by the 3rd week.

This parent (and her live-in boyfriend) sit on the steps of their govt rent reduced apt smoking cigarettes every 15 minutes, eating EBT financed crap & going to nightly bingo. However, somehow, they recently bought a family pack of 6 Flag Vallejo season passes on the auto-deduct debit payment plan. Of course.

yet she whines about no gas money to drop off her spawn to my house . . . oh, by about the 3rd week or so into the month. as usual. But somehow manages to still make it to ‘effin bingo that night!

I am so heartily SICK TO DEATH of observing/supporting the free shit army. They do not have, and will NEVER have, any desire to improve themselves. none.

((just a small slice of life here in rich ” Cali “, cause, you know, we’re all, like spa soaking, movie star surfing, benz driving tatted-up posers. ‘aight den.))

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 11:29:48

I am so heartily SICK TO DEATH of observing/supporting the free shit army. They do not have, and will NEVER have, any desire to improve themselves. none.

This chart is a main reason for the “free-sh!t” army. Most Americans would jump through hoops for the jobs and benefits their parents had. The “free-sh!t” army exists to subsidize the profits of huge corporations and the super rich. I don’t know about the couple you’re talking about but in general, you are complaining about the symptom and not the cause. This chart is a major cause of the symptoms you’re complaining about:

http://thecurrentmoment.files.wordpress.com/2011/08/productivity-and-real-wages.jpg

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 12:31:32

But I thought it was government policies that were responsible for poor wage growth?

Note that there is no change in the wage slope through different administrations. Government policy appears to be pretty much irrelevant.

The trend to me looks more like it was caused by something else. I’m guessing it’s not coincidence that computing started to grow dramatically in power in the late 70’s/80’s.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 12:40:44

Note that there is no change in the wage slope through different administrations. Government policy appears to be pretty much irrelevant.

Yes and no. The greatest divergence began in the early 80’s when USA embraced the false promise of supply-side economics which included globalization. And as I’ve said, that failed economic theory has more or less been followed ever since by both parties.

One major way that government policy was a cause of the divergence was allowing our industrial base to be off-shored for the benefit of the very few.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 12:50:06

So, would disallowing of the offshoring of our manufacturing been better for the US?

I would be very skeptical of a “yes” answer…if the US companies didn’t offshore, other foreign competitors would have, and made US companies less competitive. Would that have ultimately been better for the US?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 13:51:11

So, would disallowing of the offshoring of our manufacturing been better for the US?

Yes. Disallowing the damaging pace and extent of the off-shoring of our manufacturing base would have been much better off for the US.

other foreign competitors would have, and made US companies less competitive.

That’s what import duties and national investment in industry are for. There is no reason that Americans had to directly compete with Chinese sweat-shop communist manufacturing almost overnight. Most all our economic competitors compete with us as a team of government, people and industry working together to protect the collective interest of the country.

This is what sovereignty and strategic national interest are all about. My dad didn’t volunteer during the Korean War to have his sons and daughters have to compete with North Korea’s Red Chinese sponsors in his lifetime. America should be a country, not just an enabler of the rich and corporations to gut us for their benefit.

 
Comment by plasmacutter
2014-06-30 14:36:23

“Most all our economic competitors compete with us as a team of government, people and industry working together to protect the collective interest of the country. ”

Exactly, and certain nations will cheat as well. Refusing to allow OUR government to intervene to correct the intervention of foreign governments is to allow economic assault on our nation un-opposed. This makes both parties traitors to America and her people.

Alexander Hamilton used tariffs and subsidies to build the US as an independent manufacturing power rather than a permanent economic colony of the UK/Europe.

This behavior is the difference between a real first-world republic and a banana republic.

Currently that’s what we are: a banana republic and an economic colony of China and India.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 14:39:33

So, we should have become France? Is that your argument?

Perhaps you’ll say Germany (except that test tube is dirty since they get the benefit of the Euro instead of what would have been a much stronger DM)?

Maybe Europe as a whole is your model?

What developed country is doing it “right”?

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 15:03:50

What developed country is doing it “right”?

There is no “right” only better imo. In regards to competing as a team of government, people and industry working together to protect the collective interest of their country and balancing big business with the needs of the majority of their citizens, Germany and Scandinavia are doing it better than USA. For developing countries, Brazil has protected its industries better than America (although from a less developed base) and China has absolutely mopped the floor with America as far as working as a sovereign economic team to kick other countries industrial butts.

So, we should have become France? Is that your argument?

By now, my argument should be apparent.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 15:29:14

Brazil and China are DQ’d for comparison purposes, since they are coming from a much cheaper labor perspective.

Some Scandinavian countries have massive oil reserves on which to draw.

Germany has a quasi currency benefit due to it’s inclusion in the Euro.

“Better” would be labeling China as a currency manipulator.
“Better” would be fighting like hell to protect the intellectual property of US Companies (and their US employees–IP theft devalues such IP, and the creative brains that created it).
“Better” would be a Singapore-like program to re-train people for different jobs.

The problem is that when you move closer and closer to protectionism, you create downstream effects that aren’t necessarily that great…you may end up protecting the wages for some jobs, but overall have fewer of those jobs, and less $ flowing around an economy as a whole. I recognize that you call this “trickle-down” failure, but I fail to see evidence that the alternative (protecting jobs) is better. There are lots of examples of policies created to protect jobs, that end up backfiring (how about the Spanish labor market as an example, auto labor unions essentially bankrupting the companies in a globally competitive landscape).

I agree that there is a better way…but state sponsored industry isn’t it.

 
Comment by plasmacutter
2014-06-30 15:49:02

““Better” would be fighting like hell to protect the intellectual property of US Companies (and their US employees–IP theft devalues such IP, and the creative brains that created it).”

You are spewing nothing but starry-eyed dogma and pie in the sky wishful thinking.

As for re-training: we’re exporting sectors so rapidly re-training will be wasted money.

The concept of IP was invented to serve the manufacture of real goods through the prevention of unfair competition, but in the (essentially lawless) geopolitical arena, and increasingly in the information age, it’s enforcement is based entirely on the honor system.

Other nations can and routinely do ignore enforcement of US IP, which is why it’s not a real export and means absolutely zip, and counting on IP to make up the massive short-fall in actual manufacturing jobs manufacturing actual things ranks up there with Marx’s belief that communist revolutions will lead to government free utopia.

Structurally, there’s no way you could hire as many researches as you have factory workers, and enforcement is laughably impossible.

People in your school of thought refuse to classify the massive government subsidies and human rights violations as market manipulation to our nation’s detriment, and thus refuse to acknowledge the legitimacy of government instituting international trade barriers to counter those manipulations. Like it or not, tariffs do work to prevent exportation of jobs by making it cheaper to remain in the country.

They worked in Alexander Hamilton’s time to build our nation into a colonial power, and they work today, but big international mega-corps don’t like them because they impose long-term economic viability at the cost of today’s quarterly sheets.

 
Comment by plasmacutter
2014-06-30 15:58:47

“The problem is that when you move closer and closer to protectionism, you create downstream effects that aren’t necessarily that great…you may end up protecting the wages for some jobs, but overall have fewer of those jobs, and less $ flowing around an economy as a whole.”

Citation neded, as this assertion runs counter to the facts of our history: Protectionism is responsible for building us from backwater to international colonial power responsible for winning 2 world wars.

You’re right in that it restricts our access to some goods and makes everything slightly more expensive, but I’d rather have that and everyone working than what we have now.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 16:18:13

The problem is that when you move closer and closer to protectionism, you create downstream effects that aren’t necessarily that great…

“move closer and closer to protectionism”? I don’t understand that in the context of reality. We’ve done nothing but move farther and farther away from protectionism the past 40 years and have gone down the tubes because of it.

“move closer and closer to protectionism”? What country’s history are you talking about?

Some Scandinavian countries have massive oil reserves on which to draw.

Why does the right say oil reserves are great for some countries but a curse for other? Is it self-serving? USA has massive natural reserves too. And agriculture. And we used to have infrastructure and more.

I agree that there is a better way…but state sponsored industry isn’t it.

State supported, nurtured and rationally protected is the only way.

“Better” would be fighting like hell to protect the intellectual property of US Companies

Only if doing so would actually “trickle-down” to the majority of the workers in said companies. The USA protection of intellectual property goes on for about forever nowadays and that hinders creativity and growth for most but the oligarchs.

Brazil and China are DQ’d for comparison purposes, since they are coming from a much cheaper labor perspective.

Brazil does not have “cheap labor” as does China. The “Brazil cost” adds about 80% to the labor cost down here and there is much more involved. Brazil is a great example of a country that protected its industry from Chinese sweat-shop labor. But Chinese products are taking their toll on Brazil now.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-06-30 17:20:39

As for re-training: we’re exporting sectors so rapidly re-training will be wasted money…..counting on IP to make up the massive short-fall in actual manufacturing jobs.. ranks up there with Marx…Alexander Hamilton used tariffs and subsidies to build the US..

Great points. Hamilton totally understood global economics’ role in promoting a country.

And this whole “re-training” and “updated skills” canard is a canard imo. (As if most our citizens could retrain to have globally cutting-edge, “Today’sFlavorOfTheDay” skills on a whim and a soundbite.)

Fact is: Most people in America were never “cutting-edge” and overly exceptional in their skills. MANY were but it’s just math. We were great because together, with hard work and the American structure and spirit we became great. And we are good people - good people who started with the benefit of a country that valued most of us and strived to serve most of us.

 
 
Comment by Arizona Slim
2014-06-30 12:56:39

I’ve recently read stories about how Walmart is making big bucks in the SNAP benefits biz.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-06-30 12:24:07

It will take a constitutional amendment to make that happen.

In other words, never?

Watch other taxes/fees, etc. go up and up and up.

It will take a trusted Democrat governor to propose an AMENDMENT to Prop 13 (make it only apply to primary residences) to make any change…there is very little possibility that it is repealed in its entirety.

 
 
Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2014-06-30 13:30:20

‘‘They wrote a letter that was heartwarming,’ said Don O’Regan, an agent with Thunderbird Real Estate representing the sellers..”

I don’t want to hear a letter that warms my heart. I want to hear a letter that makes me move my bowels- I want it to cause spontaneous, explosive diarrhea in RE agents for a 25 mile radius. THATS when you know the future bagholders really want the shack.

Comment by pazuzu
2014-06-30 16:58:20

‘If it’s a good property, people should come in and make offer immediately or it’s gone,’ said Jerry Smeltzer of American Dream Realty, an agent with 37 years in the business.”

Behold the Realtor, a particularly vile species of sociopathic parasite. This one is getting long in the tooth and seems to sense that the end is near.

 
 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-06-30 18:20:17

crater

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post