Bits Bucket for July 9, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
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We are being subsumed by what I think may be the fourth Reich. They are the new nazis, not national socialists but international socialists. Much like islam, they must extinguish all other competing ideologies otherwise their ideology will be shown to be nothing but a collection of failed ideas. Convert or die, they tell us.
Similarly, a parallel to the master race of the third Reich exists today as well - but in this case, the iNazis aim to destroy what they perceive to be the master race - those with judeo-christian beliefs, and particularly Caucasians due to their intellect. The iNazis relentlessly try to destroy every institution they can - education, the economy, the labor market, the legal system, religion - history will show this 4th Reich to be born out of a desire to avenge WW2, as those who suffered the greatest losses teamed up to try and destroy the victors. Its taken many years.
They will never win though; they have no principles and must lie to gain power - fascism/totalitarianism will always be their end state. Too many humans have an innate desire for freedom.
‘Much like islam, they must extinguish all other competing ideologies’
‘ISIS is only one small part of a larger Sunni revolt in Iraq that sectarian groups have been preparing for years, according to Iraq’s exiled Vice President Tariq al-Hashimi. And defeating ISIS won’t stop the greater battle. “The provinces have done a peaceful Sunni revolt against the oppression, the injustice, the inhuman conditions the Arab Sunnis have been suffering for years,” he said.’
“Nouri al-Maliki, instead of involving the Sunni moderates, he attacked them, starting with me,” said Hashimi. “There are two sides, the extremists and moderates. If you target the moderates, you intentionally create a vacuum that could be filled by the extremists and that’s exactly what happened.”
Heck, the US, through the Saudi’s and GCC have been funding and arming these ISIS guys for years. Who would have thought that giving money and weapons to people that use suicide attacks could cause bad outcomes?
And olde but goodie:
‘Le Nouvel Observateur: Former CIA director Robert Gates states in his memoirs: The American secret services began six months before the Soviet intervention to support the Mujahideen [in Afghanistan]. At that time you were president Carters security advisor; thus you played a key role in this affair. Do you confirm this statement?’
‘Zbigniew Brzezinski: Yes. According to the official version, the CIA’s support for the Mujahideen began in 1980, i.e. after the Soviet army’s invasion of Afghanistan on 24 December 1979. But the reality, which was kept secret until today, is completely different: Actually it was on 3 July 1979 that president Carter signed the first directive for the secret support of the opposition against the pro-Soviet regime in Kabul. And on the same day I wrote a note, in which I explained to the president that this support would in my opinion lead to a military intervention by the Soviets.’
‘Le Nouvel Observateur: When the Soviets justified their intervention with the statement that they were fighting against a secret US interference in Afghanistan, nobody believed them. Nevertheless there was a core of truth to this…Do you regret nothing today?’
‘Zbigniew Brzezinski: Regret what? This secret operation was an excellent idea. It lured the Russians into the Afghan trap, and you would like me to regret that? On the day when the Soviets officially crossed the border, I wrote president Carter, in essence: “We now have the opportunity to provide the USSR with their Viet Nam war.” Indeed for ten years Moscow had to conduct a war that was intolerable for the regime, a conflict which involved the demoralization and finally the breakup of the Soviet Empire.’
‘Le Nouvel Observateur: And also, don’t you regret having helped future terrorists, having given them weapons and advice?’
‘Zbigniew Brzezinski: What is most important for world history? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet Empire? Some Islamic hotheads or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?’
The 6pm evening pigs stick with the officially authored lie.
Strange it is that one has to read formerly underground sources of news and now blogs to understand the truth.
Isn’t he a progressive? I have heard that progressives are very nice people.
Yes just ask a progressive. And the term is quite Orwellian since what they really what to do is bring us back to feudal ages. Where a few “wise” royalty made all the decisions and the serfs had to go along.
Zbigniew Brzezinski: What is most important for world history? The Taliban or the fall of the Soviet Empire? Some Islamic hotheads or the liberation of Central Europe and the end of the cold war?
The fall of the Soviet Union may be the most important story of the 20th century but Islam trying to spread its religion by the sword has been going on for 1500 years and major parts of Europe have been conquered several times by Islamic forces and even India was conquered. ISIS is not the major reason for the explosion of Iraq but it was the blasting cap. Radical Islam will need to be contain but the globalists wanted more, they wanted to make the Middle East part of their global scheme and that is what we are paying for now.
Every society should be well armed and all the young good looking women should be nudists in non-Islam societies - just to get the Muslims P.O.’d and to give me some good scenery
I cannot not find any flaws in your reasoning. BTW, have you checked out the precious metals today? I need to thank Mugabe and Zuma everyday for what they have done for me.
Yeah metals! Halfway point on the year and I am closer to when I start slowly dollar cost averaging into platinum.
Fed minutes released, PMs have spiked.
I thought you were afraid of girls, B.
Naked women have very few places to hide a weapon or bomb.
“Naked women have very few places to hide a weapon or bomb.”
yup. And hide those knives from Lorena
yup. And hide those knives from Lorena
It hurts just thinking of it. And if our country thinks that a young, attractive naked woman is a risk, I am willing to engage in an invasive search. I am willing to do that for my country because I am a patriot.
“Fed minutes released, PMs have spiked.”
And they are talking about totally eliminating QE within a year. No coincidence. Interest rates up gold up and stocks down amid stagnation - 1970s.
1980 through 2000 Interest rates long term decline, gold long term decline.
2014 or 2015: Interest rates up. Gold?
Just a guess, but I’m thinking dudes who engage in junior high repartee in blog forums about naked ladies probably couldn’t get laid for love or money.
“And they are talking about totally eliminating QE within a year.”
By October this year, supposedly.
“Just a guess, but I’m thinking dudes who engage in junior high repartee in blog forums about naked ladies probably couldn’t get laid for love or money.”
Just a guess but I’m thinking dudes who have been in the same relationshiip too long and want to get out post such remarks about unmarried guys.
Finally aiming a the right targets…and leave innocent people alone.
The photographs of the destroyed churches and mosques that emerged last week were posted on a website which frequently carries official statements from ISIS.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2685923/Shocking-moment-ISIS-militants-sledgehammers-Mosul-tomb-Prophet-Jonah-50-blindfolded-bodies-massacred-south-Baghdad.html
I know your generation is fond of atheism and certainly atheists can be ethical. However, it seems that the less religious we become the less ethical we also become, from liar’s loans to behavior like this, you cannot build a positive society without ethics, just the thought that so many people would do this disgusts me:
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-07-09/most-millennials-would-sacrifice-a-work-friendship-for-a-promotion#r=rss
I think you missed the point its not about a generation or atheism its about a Religious Jihad so if you are not fighting over land, political ideals or a dictator but whose gawd is #1, the fighting should be limited to the churches synagogues and mosques and any one associated with those buildings.
I just dont want innocent people killed.
So in your twisted worldview churches and mosques (of the wrong sectarian affiliation) are “the right targets”?
Are you insane? Nihilistic destruction should be condemned by any decent person.
Well they made their choices not me…….its like the Taliban blowing up 1500 year old Buddhist statues……..all in the name of allah.
Its where they learn this evil, they dont learn this from working at starbucks do they?
“Heck, the US, through the Saudi’s and GCC have been funding and arming these ISIS guys for years. Who would have thought that giving money and weapons to people that use suicide attacks could cause bad outcomes?”
There seems to be a pattern of arming and supporting bad guys who come back to bite us, as the same sort of progression occurred with Osama bin Laden, and with Saddam Hussein before him.
Heck, the US, through the Saudi’s and GCC have been funding and arming these ISIS guys for years.
The Saudi Government fears ISIS, it is not funding them with or without US support. It does have many citizens that are religious zealots and they do fund them but they are certainly not working with the US government.
Michael Scheurer, ex CIA analyst, operates a website non-interventionism.com and has written all about how the USA manufactured the hornets nest, and of course why that means a lot of those hornets are now stinging the rest of the world, plus many innocent Americans who had nothing to do with the foreign policy leading to the blowback.
Our foreign policy is insanity.
The Looking Glass War
Atanu Dey
Sept 17th, 2001 Berkeley CA
“Somehow it seems to fill my head with ideas—only I don’t exactly know what they are! However, somebody killed something: that’s clear at any rate–” exclaimed Alice after reading Jabberwocky in the Looking Glass world.
It is a fair description of what the situation appears to be in the US after last week’s terrorist attacks.
Terrorism is nothing new to the US which has always prided itself as a self-styled global cop. What is different is the scale of the terrorism the US has experienced in its own backyard–indeed its living room. This seems to fill the US heads with ideas and like Alice it does not quite know what they are. What is clear at any rate is the symbolism of the chosen targets and the effectiveness of the blow that the terrorists struck.
…
So these guys not only witnessed, but predicted and expected, the disastrous Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. But they had no problem with the US jumping in there 20 years or so later? Did they try to warn Bush & Co. what would happen? Maybe Bush & Co. thought things would somehow be different this time? Or something else?
Amazing that the U.S. can wage war on the other side of the planet while at home it’s cuts to everything from unemployment benefits to infrastructure repairs, and we’re printing money just to make the interest payments.
while at home it’s cuts to everything from unemployment benefits to infrastructure repairs ??
Judge opens the door for pension cuts in Stockton…Hundreds of muni’s are watching closely;
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCMQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.fresnobee.com%2F2014%2F07%2F08%2F4015854%2Fjudge-suggests-stockton-worker.html&ei=wz-9U8vfNsn9igKv-4H4DQ&usg=AFQjCNGYytSZkip8FN_fA_CWHUQ7jLef1A&sig2=tnjifhbrXwAemgjFJtGgeQ
Has anyone connected the dots yet between the ‘pension crisis’ and the Fed’s ‘protracted period of low interest rates’?
It is so obvious and I have talked about it on the blog for years but I have seen virtually no articles about it in the press.
Deflation is what’s obvious.
Disinflation may be obvious but where is this deflation?
Where? Where it begins and ends.
Dave:
everyone is torn by this sure a contract is a contract but then people expected Stockton to be a thriving city not a gang bangers paradise.
People are working in the 80’s so why do we pay full pensions to people in their 40’s and 50’s…..who can get another job?
I think you should be able to collect a full pension only if you are fully retired, and you have to submit your tax forms each year to re certify.
A friend of mine is LAPD homicide, he plans to retire in 5 years then work for another 5 years so his pension is much bigger.
There is a name for what hes planning but I can’t recall , the union figures all this out for the workers I think he said.
its call double or even triple dipping if you got a guvmint job at 18 or19….eliminate all that crappp and lets see how much it saves the taxpayers.
“A friend of mine is LAPD homicide…”
This is not a casual job where one puts in their 30-years.
Then there should be competitive pay, with an associated 401k for retirement, that allows the employed to pay for catastrophic insurance in the case of something bad happening on the job. Their union can organize that benefit if they wish. Then, if they can get detectives to work for cheaper, let them.
There is nothing special why police and firemen need pensions different than regular paper pushers. If there is a danger to the position, the reduced number of people wanting to face the danger will necessarily drive up the wage it takes to entice them to do so.
“There is nothing special why police and firemen need pensions different than regular paper pushers.”
There are mental and physical demands that are well beyond the comprehension of the average game-boy civilian. However, I do agree that their unions have pushed too far.
“There is nothing special why police and firemen need pensions different than regular paper pushers.”
These jobs subject employees to a higher risk of death or disability. The associated pensions offset the risk by providing the potential for early retirement and richer disability and death benefits. This is part of the employment contract, so feel free to sign up for one of these positions if you are interested.
“…that allows the employed to pay for catastrophic insurance in the case of something bad happening on the job.”
Unions can negotiate a much better deal on this kind of insurance for their police and fireman members than those with these jobs could as high-risk individuals on the margin of the risk pool.
Wait till the muni’s get a load of this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fitch-cuts-puerto-rico-general-obligation-bonds-2014-07-09
They will never win though; they have no principles and must lie to gain power - fascism/totalitarianism will always be their end state.
Unfortunately, those types win a lot and yes that is their end state. With the probably imminent demise of the U.S., it is a real question who is going to rescue countries that fall into that trap.
wat
Hitler and the Soviet Union did not fall without the considerable help of the US. Take the U.S. out of the mix and they just might have conquered the world and lasted for a thousand years.
The Soviet Union played a very large role in fall of Hitler. The Red Army killed 7/8 of all German soldiers who died in the war. This is not well known in the West.
7/8? I would like to see a link to that.
BTW, what most people really don’t know is that Germany and Russia were allies for part of the war and divided up Poland. More importantly Germany and Russia had close links both before and after Hitler came to power and Germany would not have been able to build its army without the Soviet Union’s cooperation.
An excerpt from Wikipedia about Russia’s crucial role in building up the German’s military:
In the 1920s, many in the leadership of Weimar Germany, humiliated by the conditions of the Treaty of Versailles imposed after their defeat in the First World War (especially General Hans von Seeckt, chief of the Reichswehr), were interested in cooperation with the Soviet Union, both in order to avert any threat from the Second Polish Republic, backed by the French Third Republic, and to prevent any possible Soviet-British alliance. The specific German aims were the full rearmament of the Reichswehr, which was explicitly prohibited by the Treaty of Versailles, and an alliance against Poland. It is unknown exactly when the first contacts between von Seeckt and the Soviets took place, but it could have been as early as 1919-1921, or possibly even before the signing of the Treaty of Versailles.[12][13]
On April 15, 1920, Victor Kopp, the RSFSR’s special representative to Berlin, asked at the German Foreign Office whether “there was any possibility of combining the German and the Red Army for a joint war on Poland”. This was yet another event at the start of military cooperation between the two countries, which ended before the German invasion of the Soviet Union on June 22, 1941.
By early 1921, a special group in the Reichswehr Ministry devoted to Soviet affairs, Sondergruppe R, had been set up.[14]
Weimar Germany’s army had been limited to 100,000 men by the Treaty of Versailles, which also forbade the Germans to have aircraft, tanks, submarines, heavy artillery, poison gas, anti-tank weapons or many anti-aircraft guns. A team of inspectors from the League of Nations patrolled many German factories and workshops to ensure that these weapons were not being manufactured.
The Treaty of Rapallo between Weimar Germany and the Soviet Union was signed by German Foreign Minister Walther Rathenau and his Soviet colleague Georgy Chicherin on April 16, 1922, during the Genoa Economic Conference, annulling all mutual claims, restoring full diplomatic relations, and establishing the beginnings of close trade relationships, which made Weimar Germany the main trade and diplomatic partner of the Soviet Union.[15] Rumors of a secret military supplement to the treaty soon spread. However, for a long time the consensus was that those rumors were wrong, and that Soviet-German military negotiations were independent of Rapallo and kept secret from the German Foreign Ministry for some time.[14] This point of view was later challenged.[16][17][18] On November 5, 1922, six other Soviet republics, which would soon become part of the Soviet Union, agreed to adhere to the Treaty of Rapallo as well.[19]
The Soviets offered Weimar Germany facilities deep inside the USSR for building and testing arms and for military training, well away from Treaty inspectors’ eyes. In return, the Soviets asked for access to German technical developments, and for assistance in creating a Red Army General Staff.[20]
The first German officers went to the Soviet state for these purposes in March, 1922. One month later, Junkers began building aircraft at Fili, outside Moscow, in violation of Versailles. The great artillery manufacturer Krupp was soon active in the south of the USSR, near Rostov-on-Don. In 1925, a flying school was established at Vivupal, near Lipetsk, to train the first pilots for the future Luftwaffe.[2] Since 1926, the Reichswehr had been able to use a tank school at Kazan (codenamed Kama) and a chemical weapons facility in Samara Oblast (codenamed Tomka). In turn, the Red Army gained access to these training facilities, as well as military technology and theory from Weimar Germany.[
From a different Wikipedia article:
In August 1939 the two totalitarian states stunned the world by coming to a major agreement the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact. They agreed to invade and partition Poland and divided up Eastern Europe. The Soviets provided Germany with oil and reversed the anti-Nazi rhetoric of Communist parties around the world.[15] At the same time, the Soviet and German interests were not reconciled in the Balkano-Danubian region. Thus, during 1940-1941 hot Soviet-German discussions concerning a new division of the South-Eastern Europe were going on. On June 1940, Moscow recognized that Slovakia was in the German sphere of influence.[16] Otherwise, Russian request for the exclusive influence in Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey was rejected by Berlin in November 1940.
Hitler hated the Soviets and said so in Mein Kampf - apparently the Russkies didn’t bother to read it or didn’t believe his words.
I agree that the more secular a society becomes, the more pervasive fraud and deceit. The product of the enlightenment is being attacked by secular self hating semites who adopted some of the marxist/communist tactics who seek to roll back all those gains. Look no further than what passes for art and music as trumpeted by the elite today. Its a farce and everyone knows it.
And this is related to housing how?
A few things about the wannabe 4th Reich:
1) It claims to be religion-based.
2) It aims to return the world to the Middle Ages.
3) Its antediluvian attitudes towards education, gender roles, personal freedom and industrial organization will doom its efforts from the get-go.
The Middle East
The tragedy of the Arabs
A civilisation that used to lead the world is in ruins—and only the locals can rebuild it
Jul 5th 2014 | From the print edition
A THOUSAND years ago, the great cities of Baghdad, Damascus and Cairo took turns to race ahead of the Western world. Islam and innovation were twins. The various Arab caliphates were dynamic superpowers—beacons of learning, tolerance and trade. Yet today the Arabs are in a wretched state. Even as Asia, Latin America and Africa advance, the Middle East is held back by despotism and convulsed by war.
Hopes soared three years ago, when a wave of unrest across the region led to the overthrow of four dictators—in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen—and to a clamour for change elsewhere, notably in Syria. But the Arab spring’s fruit has rotted into renewed autocracy and war. Both engender misery and fanaticism that today threaten the wider world.
Why Arab countries have so miserably failed to create democracy, happiness or (aside from the windfall of oil) wealth for their 350m people is one of the great questions of our time. What makes Arab society susceptible to vile regimes and fanatics bent on destroying them (and their perceived allies in the West)? No one suggests that the Arabs as a people lack talent or suffer from some pathological antipathy to democracy. But for the Arabs to wake from their nightmare, and for the world to feel safe, a great deal needs to change.
The blame game
One problem is that the Arab countries’ troubles run so wide. Indeed, Syria and Iraq can nowadays barely be called countries at all. This week a brutal band of jihadists declared their boundaries void, heralding instead a new Islamic caliphate to embrace Iraq and Greater Syria (including Israel-Palestine, Lebanon, Jordan and bits of Turkey) and—in due course—the whole world. Its leaders seek to kill non-Muslims not just in the Middle East but also in the streets of New York, London and Paris. Egypt is back under military rule. Libya, following the violent demise of Muammar Qaddafi, is at the mercy of unruly militias. Yemen is beset by insurrection, infighting and al-Qaeda. Palestine is still far from true statehood and peace: the murders of three young Israelis and ensuing reprisals threaten to set off yet another cycle of violence (see article). Even countries such as Saudi Arabia and Algeria, whose regimes are cushioned by wealth from oil and gas and propped up by an iron-fisted apparatus of state security, are more fragile than they look. Only Tunisia, which opened the Arabs’ bid for freedom three years ago, has the makings of a real democracy.
Islam, or at least modern reinterpretations of it, is at the core of some of the Arabs’ deep troubles. The faith’s claim, promoted by many of its leading lights, to combine spiritual and earthly authority, with no separation of mosque and state, has stunted the development of independent political institutions. A militant minority of Muslims are caught up in a search for legitimacy through ever more fanatical interpretations of the Koran. Other Muslims, threatened by militia violence and civil war, have sought refuge in their sect. In Iraq and Syria plenty of Shias and Sunnis used to marry each other; too often today they resort to maiming each other. And this violent perversion of Islam has spread to places as distant as northern Nigeria and northern England.
…
realtors are liars
time for a job dude.
Consultations with bankruptcy attorneys are free. Free yourself from that rapidly depreciating house. Do it.
fraud analyst
this message sponsored by the national association of realtors
Referred by “bankruptcy attorneys” :
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinese-cash-bearing-buyers-fuel-144752068.html
So the Chinese are buying houses. Whocuddanode?
Using a price of $500,000/house, they purchased 45,000 houses. The annual transactions for houses in the U.S. is 5,000,000/year. So the Chinese are buying less than 1% of the houses sold in the U.S. each year.
Nothin’ to get up about…..strawberry fields forever.
No J._Fraud. With housing demand at 19 year lows and falling, nobody is buying houses.
nobody is buying houses.
That’s odd. A coworker of mine just bought one. My world is rocked - I can’t believe you made a less-than-honest statement!
Not in the way it’s characterized by the liars.
And remember….National Association of RealtLiars lied about housing demand every single month for four years straight.
Who is buying houses again?
And remember….National Association of RealtLiars lied about housing demand every single month for four years straight.
Sure, and I fault them for that. That justifies your misrepresentations how exactly?
Who is buying houses again?
A number of people I know, actually. Woman who sits behind me at work just bought one. Friends of my significant other bought recently as well. These in addition to my coworker mentioned above.
People are certainly buying houses. Is the trend up or down, are prices up or down, are folks financing or paying cash? I don’t know - I’m not commenting on any of those things.
(Are you going to call me a shill and realtor now too?)
And housing demand is at 19 year lows.
Your point?
Your point?
is clearly lost on you.
That’s what I thought but feel free to respond to the fact that organic housing demand is at 19 year lows and falling.
Oxnard, CA Housing Prices Crater 58% YoY; California Housing Demand Collapses
http://www.movoto.com/oxnard-ca/market-trends/
Wow, based on a sample of…….14 houses.
HA is a genious….at being hilarious. HA, HA, HA.
Post something meaningful or go home!
Good morning J._Fraud. What is your tall tale for today?
how much does the national association of realtors pay you to post here?
Goon, scrutinizing your new wife?
“a sample of 14 houses”
Sounds like demand is indeed collapsing if only 24 houses in Oxnard are up for sale at the peak of the red hot summer sales season.
Besides the 50%+ price collapse, did you notice the year-on-year change in days on the market? Up from a median of 17 days a year ago to 73 days today — another sign of demand collapse.
90 days is a normal market. 73 days is hardly a sign of a “collapse”.
“We think thou doest protest too much”
“We think thou doest lie too much” John_Fraud.
Pinocchio would have made a lousy realtor.
Camarillo, CA Housing Prices Collapse 36%YoY As Inventory Explodes
http://www.movoto.com/camarillo-ca/market-trends/
Wow, based on a sample of…….17 houses.
HA is a genious….at being hilarious. HA, HA, HA.
Post something meaningful or go home!
Regale us with some more of your fantastical stories J._Fraud.
this sponsored content brought to you by the national association of realtors
It is pretty interesting when so many ’small samples’ tell the same story, no?
It’s only interesting if the large samples tell the same story as the hand-picked samples. Otherwise it’s just cherry picking.
Lol. Imagine…. R._Fraud accusing others of cherrypicking.
It doesn’t get any better than that.
The data I present is at a very high level (statewide data, or national data).
Drawing a conclusion about a market based on data on the whole of the market is NOT cherry picking.
Drawing a conclusion about the whole of a market based on a very small sample size IS cherry picking.
HA, why didn’t you post this one?
Rocklin, CA, Housing Prices Explode 15% YoY, Days on Market = 33
You post junk R._Fraud. The thickness of your wallet depends on it.
The Tiny House movement was originally tree-hugger. Now they are selling it as a way to get out from under a mortgage.
Tiny Houses Big With U.S. Owners Seeking Economic Freedom
By Nina Glinski Jul 9, 2014 12:01 AM ET (bloomibergi)
…The 57-year-old schoolteacher’s tiny house near Providence, Rhode Island, cost $28,000. He invests the money he would have spent on a mortgage and related costs in a mutual fund, halving his retirement horizon to 10 years and maybe even as soon as three.
…The pared-down lifestyle allows people to minimize expenses and gain economic freedom, said architect Jay Shafer in Cotati, California.
…Defined as 500 or fewer square feet, tiny houses range from primitive 96-square-foot huts to award-winning displays of sustainable architecture with elegant streamlined design.
————–
The information itself is pretty standard-issue: no mortgage, minimal utility bills, envrionmentally friendly. But I like that it appeared in the MSM.
And overpriced by 500%.
Glued on that fraud priced housing scheme eh? Wonder why that is.
fraud
Good morning $hirHouse Poet. Have you scheduled up with a bankruptcy attorney as I advised you?
buy a house today and you will have equity tomorrow!
Yes, negative equity.
I watched “Tiny” guy spent like 1 year and 30k building a 120sq ft house, and got no land to go with it. so $300/sqft with no property…. and in the middle of montana. Might as well get 3 of your friends, buy a 1500 sq ft house for 120k, and get some property and more space with all the work done for you. And when you let one rip in the bathroom the kitchen wont get polluted 18 inches away.
You can even order one and have it delivered.
http://www.tumbleweedhouses.com/
As a bonus: Not only will you be able to rearrange the furniture as you please you will also be able to rearrange the entire house!
Wow! Theyŕe over $400 per square foot.
These aren’t really cheap housing, they’re mobile homes for the rich and artsy. You’re still not going to be able to live cheap in San Fran in one, because where would you put it? You could take it to the country, but there is cheaper housing there already.
Yes, definitely a niche market. Jay Shafer made Tumbleweed houses extremely small so that he put them on trailers and thus circumvent minimum-size zoning laws. Usually they just park on someone else’s land; Shafer lived in an apple orchard for a while.
I personally don’t like Tumbleweeds because they don’t have running water. Jug over the sink and composting toilet. At that point you may as well live in a $500 storage shed from Lowe’s.
At that point you may as well live in a $500 storage shed from Lowe’s.
I am glad to hear you have a plan B.
$60k?? As with all real estate I look at, overpriced by at least 100%.
I think this will become a trend as so many baby boomers have neglected to prepare for their retirement. They’ll be living simply, off the grid using solar and with minimal amounts of personal property.
70 million boomers offloading 35+ million houses intoa market with demand at 19 year lows and falling will be fun to watch.
your landlord needs some money this month.
Offload that shack at any price.
your realtor circle jerk buddies are looking for you, they’re all over on the city-data forum
Lol, good point.
Seniors have been living in Florida trailer parks for decades. Instead of a tiny well-built house, you get a modest badly-built house.
House plan websites are really starting to get into the small house movement. The plans under 1000 sq ft used to be cabins-in-the-woods, but now they are designed as primary dwellings or guest houses with better features. Like, I REALLY WANT this one:
http://www.houseplans.com/plan/300-square-feet-1-bedroom-1-bathroom-0-garage-cottage-38531
A bit too metrosexual for my tastes, but I can see why you would like it, you probably had a play house as a little girl that was very similar.
Does it come with a smart-car anchor pad to foil the car tippers?
You should suggest it the builder and a bike rack as well since you will not be able to store that inside.
I lived with minimal amounts of personal property since my late 30s and I am a boomer. More money left over for me to follow good weather all year. VRBO summers in Big Sur, Mendocino, and so on.
The Millennials might prefer tiny houses to living indefinitely in their parent’s basement, ruing those votes they cast for “hope ‘n change.”
Minimal space, low taxes, no interest payments, saving money, retiring early…what exactly about that appeals to you?
BTW, I have been living in style in a small space (with an infinite yard) for a decade. It can be done a lot cheaper that your feature article describes.
Give it up dude. I am NOT going to allow you to shame me into living in a one-bedroom condo.
Considering that’s a major step up from the conditions under which you’re living now, he’s helping you.
Repost from late yesterday:
The Joshua Tree Extension is now hosted on Mozilla’s addons site. I fear this will mean there’s a public history of my bad coding and bugs, but I think it will make life easier for everyone else (automatic notification of updates, etc).
To get it hosted on Mozilla I had to clean up the implementation a bit (to meet their guidelines), and in the process sped things up (cut about 1/3 of the initialization time), so the page (and toolbar) should layout/show faster.
Joshua Tree Extension on mozilla.org
Note that this new version breaks compatibility with previously stored data, so clear out the stored data (via preferences) before installing.
One interesting aspect of having this all hosted on mozilla.org now is there’s some reporting of # of users and which version they’re using. Someone’s still using 1.3.1 which was put out in July of 2009.
I guess if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it
Just installed — thank you!
“The Joshua Tree Extension is now hosted on Mozilla’s addons site.”
+1 Thanks!
“I fear this will mean there’s a public history of my bad coding and bugs,…”
Good coding = it does something useful and I wouldn’t know how to code it myself without investing hours of time in self-education.
So thank you!
For Goon when he comes back from his honeymoon with the single mom with children that celebrate diversity:
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/china-raise-subsidies-rooftop-solar-installations
Of course she does have the two great tramp stamps, I hate AGW and the other on her butt which says Deniers burn in Hell.
Goon from wattsupwiththat still time to log on:Day-Three Live Stream of International Climate Conference Features Lifetime Achievement Award to S. Fred Singer
Posted on July 9, 2014 by Anthony Watts
Skeptic Conference Ends with Discussions of Latest Science Challenging UN Reports, Recognition of Professional Courage and Honesty
LAS VEGAS (July 9, 2014)— Today, the last day of the Ninth International Conference on Climate Change(ICCC9), will include the presentation of the “Lifetime Achievement in Climate Science Award” to Dr. S. Fred Singer, as well as 29 more presentations from leading “skeptic” scientists and policy experts of a human-caused climate crisis.
The live stream with full coverage of ICCC9 will begin at 8 a.m. PDT today (Wednesday, July 9.) The last of 70 total presentations at the conference will conclude 4 p.m. PDT.
property of hells angels is a good one
China says it’s up to US to drive global economy
By LOUISE WATT
The Associated Press
BEIJING —
China’s finance minister said Wednesday that the country is not planning any new stimulus measures and it is up to the United States to drive the global economy.
Lou Jiwei said that leaders are satisfied with the country’s economic performance so far this year and that in the first five months China had created up to 6 million jobs, 60 percent of this year’s target.
Analysts say the ruling party appears willing to accept economic growth below its 7.5 percent target this year so long as the rate of creation of new jobs stays high enough to avoid political tensions.
Lou said China, which is the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S., is emphasizing structural reforms to spur economic growth and is unlikely to repeat the kind of massive economic stimulus it did in the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis.
“Therefore the global economic recovery depends on the situation in the United States,” he told reporters at a briefing during an annual U.S.-China strategic and economic dialogue in Beijing attended by U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew.
Lou pointed out that the U.S. economy shrank at a 2.9 percent annual rate from January to March — largely because of a brutal winter — and said China hopes the U.S. “can take measures to ensure the momentum of growth.”
http://www.ajc.com/ap/ap/top-news/china-says-its-up-to-us-to-drive-global-economy/ngb5n/
Lou Jiwei said that leaders are satisfied with the country’s economic performance so far this year and that in the first five months China had created up to 6 million jobs, 60 percent of this year’s target.
Creating 1.2 million jobs per month at a time when the labor force is contracting due to retirements, an unemployment rate around 4% and the new jobs pay better than the old jobs, what is not to like?
Always a fly in the ointment…
Constant overtime stresses Chinese white-collar workers to breaking point
By Shai Oster, Bloomberg News
Posted July 7, 2014 at 10:29 p.m.
Workers at a garment factory in China’s Jiangsu province sew stuffed toys bound for Europe. China’s blue-collar workers have won wage and working condition improvements, but media outlets say salaried employees complain they are being worked to death.
Photo by Si wei
Chinese banking regulator Li Jianhua worked himself to death. After 26 years of “always putting the cause of the party and the people” first, his employer said in June, the 48-year-old official died rushing to finish a report before the sun came up.
China is facing an epidemic of overwork, to hear the state-controlled press and Chinese social media tell it. About 600,000 Chinese die each year from working too hard, according to the China Youth Daily. China Radio International in April reported a toll of 1,600 every day.
Microblogging website Weibo is filled with complaints about stressed-out lives and chatter about reports of others, young and old, worked to death: a 24-year-old junior employee at Ogilvy Public Relations Worldwide Inc., a 25-year-old auditor at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP; one of the chief designers of China’s next-generation fighter planes at state-run AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corp.
“What’s the point of working overtime so you can work to death?” asked one commentator on Weibo, lamenting that his boss told employees to spend more time on the job.
…
Fifty years ago they were literally starving to death in the tens of millions, so I guess a few deaths this way can be considered the cost of rapid progress.
From Wilipedia, and as an aside we picked up the Chinese loading bodies on to trucks like firewood with our spy satellites but the government kept quiet about. At the same time many people were saying that Vietnam going communist would not be so bad since at least under communism the people were no longer starving:
The Three Years of Great Chinese Famine (simplified Chinese: 三年大饥荒; traditional Chinese: 三年大饑荒; pinyin: Sānnián dà jīhuāng), referred to by the Communist Party of China as the Three Years of Natural Disasters or the Difficult Three Year Period (simplified Chinese: 三年自然灾害; traditional Chinese: 三年自然災害; pinyin: Sānnián zìrán zāihài or simplified Chinese: 三年困难时期; traditional Chinese: 三年困難時期; pinyin: Sānnián kùnnán shíqī), was the period in the People’s Republic of China between the years 1958 and 1961 characterized by widespread famine. Drought, poor weather, and the policies of the Communist Party of China contributed to the famine, although the relative weights of the contributions are disputed due to the Great Leap Forward.
According to government statistics, there were 15 million excess deaths in this period.[1] Unofficial estimates vary, but scholars have estimated the number of famine victims to be between 20 and 43 million.[2] Historian Frank Dikötter, having been granted special access to Chinese archival materials, estimates that there were at least 45 million premature deaths from 1958 to 1962.[3][4]
Chinese journalist Yang Jisheng concluded there were 36 million deaths due to starvation, while another 40 million others failed to be born, so that “China’s total population loss during the Great Famine then comes to 76 million.”[5] The phrase “Three Bitter Years” is often used by Chinese peasants to refer to this period.[6
Good point. Similarly, perpetually choking on bad air also beats mass starvation.
Yesterday Rental Watch posted
” If S&P hits 2,100, I’ll seriously think about going back to cash in the 529s…if it hits 2,250, I definitely will. Yes, they each still have 10+ years before they would go to college, but given how well I’ve done, I’d hate to give back a lot of my gains.”
Well the S&P is within 10% of 2100.
If you stop to think about it, you probably are up 140% or so in your 529s in 5 and a half years. That is a very big gain. Much more than 10% annual gain. The problem is 10% is a long term average annual gain and you exceeded that. I congratulate you for winning the gamble by not moving to cash in 2013. I would have moved some to cash back then. But 2014 is an election year so I figure we might get to at least 2050 in S&P before November.
If your annual open season on 529 is before election I would move some at least to cash.
On the other hand you said you don’t need it for ten years. That is a long time and you may as well not do anything with the 529. If it was 5 years then I would say you certainly should move some to cash.
The problem with the 529s is you need to pick a track…each track has a different amount of cash-like investments, so you can’t say, put 10% in cash and 90% in the most aggressive mix–you need to be happy with the mixes they provide (a big downside to 529s). My oldest child turns 7 tomorrow, so I’ve got a ways to go. Candidly, I’m not even thinking about her college costs anymore, I’m thinking about the next generation–either direct descendants or other family (unused 529 can be re-allocated to other relatives–the big plus to 529s), so my timeframe is probably closer to 30 or 40 years. I figure the gift of education without debt is a pretty good one to give.
The other plus to 529s (IMHO) is that while contributions to the account count as $ toward the gift tax exclusion each year, the assets still belong to my wife and I–we can take the money if we want (with penalty)…it doesn’t belong to the kids. I have heard too many stories of kids who are given a poorly structured trust fund that is supposed to go to education, but they end up buying toys with the money.
The timeframe I have is why I haven’t already moved to cash. The duration you have to work should be inversely proportional to your reaction to perceived bubbles (long duration, not very reactive to market swings, short duration, very reactive).
BTW, I just looked back at my timing…I went from cash to “aggressive” on March 16, 2009, when the unit value for the “aggressive” track was $9.08. The unit value is now $24.14…a gain of 166% for the units that I had on that day (of course I’ve contributed more money over time–with less advantageous purchase prices). S&P 500 low was 666.79 (intraday low on March 6th).
Don’t know if I’ll ever time a bottom like that again…
Occupy California?
http://calwatchdog.com/2014/07/08/not-done-yet-feeble-calpers-reform-shows-whos-boss-in-legislature/
I know this type of thing gets discussed a lot, but has anyone proposed a solution to how pensions should be funded such that taxpayers are protected or actually have a seat at the table?
Require they’re fully funded, along with a balanced budget amendment?
Obviously they could be moved to a 401k-type setup like the private sector, such that there are no outstanding obligations (assuming the funds aren’t held by the state but in escrow/by a third party).
How do military pensions compare to civil worker pensions these days?
I know this type of thing gets discussed a lot, but has anyone proposed a solution to how pensions should be funded such that taxpayers are protected or actually have a seat at the table?
In your question you reveal the unsolvable problem. Rarely does the taxpayer have any seat at the table, but often the union has both seats. The union representative and the official that was elected with the same union’s support negotiate the contract. The only limitation is the available money but with pensions the elected official can give the union enough to retain their support and it will be future elected official that will have to come up with the money. That is why even people like FDR thought public unions were a bad idea.
The only think I can think of, is a requirement that at the time the contract is negotiated, the governmental entity must fully fund the pension up to the new levels. This would at least keep the government negotiated from reaching into the pockets of future taxpayers instead of the present taxpayers.
a requirement that at the time the contract is negotiated, the governmental entity must fully fund the pension up to the new levels.
Yeah, that addresses one of the problems. Honestly, I think all legislation should work this way (especially funding-related). Legislating something that won’t take effect when you’re in office (and thus you can’t be held accountable for) seems inappropriate in a representative government.
Even if you had a referendum on the contract negotiated by the politician and the unions, the folks voting on it are making commitments for future taxpayers, not necessarily themselves.
drumminj no more 20 years and out……you must be fully retired to get the full amount..otherwise you get it at say 65-70.
This prevents people from getting another career and another full pension. Also it should only be based on base pay no colas no added OT or vacation sick days….just the base pay…
Thats if you want outside people to think its fair
And before BK how about rolling back all the excesses in Cali figure out pensions on the base pay then see how much you are short. Funny how no one seems to have the answer to that question…or wants to know!
Payouts should be based on what you earn over your career, not your last three years (or one year).
In other words, if you spend 20 years of your career earning $40k per year, and the last 5 as a manager earning $100k, your pension should be 80% based on $40k, and 20% based on $100k.
After all, when you were earning $40k, you paid into the system commensurate with your $40k salary, NOT commensurate with your $100k salary.
“Payouts should be based on what you earn over your career, not your last three years (or one year).”
Aha — a Social Securist!
No, someone who understands the pension games that are played.
The argument I always hear from folks getting a government pension is that they deserve the pension because “they paid into the system their whole career”.
However, they “paid into the system” at a rate commensurate with the amount they were earning along the way. And the system pays out based on what they were earning at the end.
This is a sure fired way to bankrupt the system, and create gamesmanship.
Pension spiking would be a thing of the past, as would the revolving door management systems for folks getting close to retirement (when it’s your “turn” to retire, you get to be the head cheese for a couple of years to get the boost in income, and thus boost in pension).
I have no problem with pensions if taxpayers aren’t responsible for shortfalls due principally to unreasonably rich terms (that allow pension spiking, etc.) for pensioners negotiated by unions who have politicians in their pockets.
Thats might solve a big chunk of the problem……but no one wants to plug in the numbers and let the public see how much it will save..
Its always been about union rules…..and the unwillingness of unions to change with the times.
Pension spiking would be a thing of the pas
“This is a sure fired way to bankrupt the system, and create gamesmanship.”
Wouldn’t using the projected unit credit funding method be an effective way to keep a final-pay pension plan solvent over time and avoid bankruptcy? I guess you hadn’t thought of that.
Albeit government pension plans tend to avoid honest accounting for the expected discounted present value of promised future benefits — a key reason they are prone to going bankrupt.
“I have no problem with pensions if taxpayers aren’t responsible for shortfalls due principally to unreasonably rich terms (that allow pension spiking, etc.) for pensioners negotiated by unions who have politicians in their pockets.”
There have been some spectacular examples of government pension fraud in California over the past couple of decades, including right here in San Diego, and the remedies have been far short of satisfactory.
“Wouldn’t using the projected unit credit funding method be an effective way to keep a final-pay pension plan solvent over time and avoid bankruptcy? I guess you hadn’t thought of that.”
That method would only work if you can properly predict what someone is going to be earning at the end of their career. The problem is that the way pensions are calculated, there are incentives to spike pensions and play the revolving manager game, which would render the method useless.
Examples:
#1 You fund a pension with the assumption that the Fire Chief is going to make $120k in his last year of service. However, since the Fire Chief can sell back his vacation and sick leave in the last year and have it count as part of the calculation for his pension, his actual final year’s pay is $120k PLUS another $50k, on which his pension is actually based. The actuaries got it right in funding the Fire Chief’s benefit based on a $120k final salary…but the Fire Chief gamed the system.
#2 The park ranger is projected to make $60k per year in his last years of service. However, that particular function has an unspoken tradition that in your last few years before retirement, you become the leader of the team, thus increasing pay to $100k (and your pension). So, again, even if the actuaries get it right for the employee’s assumed role, the system encourages these games to be played in the final few years of a career, thus shifting roles to boost actual pensions.
Until the actual pension payments received are reflective of the career as a whole (and not the last few years of service), it will be impossible to correctly predict the actual pension obligations, and thus properly fund said obligations over the period of the employee’s career.
“There have been some spectacular examples of government pension fraud in California over the past couple of decades, including right here in San Diego, and the remedies have been far short of satisfactory.”
I pretty rarely get involved in politics, but I read Governor’s Pension reform proposal a while back, and was pretty appalled that it didn’t address the egregious pension manipulations (pension spiking, etc.) for current employees…it only addressed such abuses for future employees.
So I wrote the governor, essentially saying “I read your proposal, why didn’t you address the massive abuses by current employees?” I got a response that basically said: “Thanks for your interest in pension reform, you can see the governor’s proposal at http://www.blahblahblah...” Duh, that’s what prompted my e-mail.
It sounds like even his BS pension “reform” went nowhere–he bowed down to the unions.
Guys like Chuck Reed in San Jose are heroes…he pushed Measure B that was passed with 70% of the vote. That measure:
1. New employees need to pay 50% of the cost of their plan. Accrual rate is 2%, with maximum benefit at 65%.
2. Current employees get to keep what they’ve accrued to date, but if they want to keep accruing at that rate, they need to pay more
3. Voter approval is needed to enhance retirement benefits in the future.
4. Reforms disability rules to prevent abuses (independent experts to determine disability)
Now that Measure is coming under fire from the unions–#2 has been largely invalidated through a lawsuit and court ruling. But Reed is fighting the good fight.
Solar or stirling and interesting debate in the making:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/07/02/dean-kamen-thinks-his-new-stirling-engine-could-power-the-world/
From the article. This is NOT going to go over well with the “go-time” crowd:
—————-
“It will be up to Crane’s NRG to determine what to charge for these Beacon machines. A big part of NRG’s plan isn’t to sell them at all, but lease them. … [it] is the same model that NRG and solar-installer upstart SolarCity have applied to solar panels. … If the panels make excess juice, then NRG can make money selling it onto the grid.
The idea is to try the same thing with the Beacon machines. Once the adoption rate is high enough, NRG will be able to network dozens of the devices across a region together. Depending on natural gas prices and levels of electricity demand, there could be times when NRG would send a signal to all the Beacon machines in a region to ramp up to full output and send the excess power onto the grid. ”We don’t think we should be just selling a box,” says Kamen. “We think we should be part of a system of the future, powering the evolution of microgrids.”
———–
Oh see, they aren’t going to let you walk away with a box that you can hook up to a private propane tank, and be free of them forever. Nope, they want to meathook us all up into a “system of the future.” So basically, this company is going to use everybody’s private basement, and natural gas line, and grid connection to construct a sort of piecemeal decentralized power plant which they ramp up and down to please their profit margins. And I’m supposed to pay THEM for this priviledge? They should be paying ME for the rent of my basement, and reimburse me for increased electric bills to maintain the wear and tear on the grid.
Now I’m starting to understand why the libertarians think they way they do.
I agree but sooner or later someone will be selling them direct to consumers and many go time people will be buying them. I guess if I was truly getting ready I would still go with solar first since a panel will last a lot longer than a tank of propane.
Craterrrrrrrrrrrrr!
want to get ripped off? go talk to a realtor
You can say that again.
anybody else want to get ripped off? go talk to a realtor
But you and your new wife and four kids need a yard that really belongs to them. It will raise their self-esteem and help them do better on their tests.
Allow me to take the honor….
Want to get ripped off? go talk to a realtor
fraudulent
Indeed they are $hitHousePoet. Indeed they are. But you trusted a realtor and look what happened…. you got burned.
I’d rather rent out somebody else’s yard and have my kids attend a better school than to own a yard of my own at a high price in a bad school district in order to force my kids to mow the lawn.
Come one, come all! Countries of the world, unite! Why just limit the intake of the sick and diseased to Mexico and Central America? That’s racis! Bring ‘em in from Africa, China, Philippines, Thailand, India, Italy, Greece, Ireland, the Balkans, you name it. Just put ‘em on a boat or plane (hey, it’s cheaper and safer than turning them over to coyotes, isn’t it?) and have them turn themselves in to customs when they get here. Russia, empty your orphanages! Africa, send us all those lost boys. China, all those girls you don’t want!
Planet Earth, what are you waiting for? The time is now!
Why would we not want a billion people living in America, especially if most are from the third world?
BTW, most of them are only fit for burger flipping and look what is happening (link), of course it will happen quicker if the minimum wage is raised to $15 an hour:
https://www.yahoo.com/tech/millennials-vs-robots-who-will-win-the-jobs-91150014574.html
Like I said, come one, come all! In fact, I don’t understand why people from other countries aren’t doing this, it’s brilliant.
And, you want to see the La Razans get their bloomers in a twist, that’ll do it. I guarantee you they’ll all of a sudden become real patriots, lol. Can’t have those bennies dispersed to other peoples, oh, the horror.
From Chinaeconomicreview:
Wednesday, July 9, 2014
Foreign purchases of US real estate increased 35% last year, with mainland Chinese forming the largest buyer contingent, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a National Association of Realtors survey issued on Tuesday. Chinese customers purchased US$22 billion in housing for the 12-month period ending in March, or around 24% of foreign sales by dollar volume, up from 19% during the year-earlier period. Total international purchases stood at US$92.2 billion, up from US$68.2 billion the year before. Chinese buyers “want to diversify because the housing market over there is way too hot,” and because of political uncertainty, said William Yu, a UCLA economist.
Bloomberg News
Chinese Cash-Bearing Buyers Drive U.S. Foreign Sales Jump
By John Gittelsohn July 09, 2014
California New Home Sales
Construction at the Playa Vista community development in Los Angeles, on March 19, 2014. Photographer: Patrick T. Fallon/Bloomberg
Henry Nunez, a real estate agent in Arcadia, California, met with so many homebuyers from China that he bought a Mandarin-English translation app for his phone.
The $1.99 purchase paid off last month, when he sold a five-bedroom home with crystal chandeliers, marble floors and two kitchens, one designed for smoky wok cooking. The buyers were a Chinese couple who paid $3.5 million in cash.
“Last year, it would’ve been $2.8 million,” said Nunez, a property broker for 27 years in the city 20 miles (32 kilometers) east of Los Angeles. “The biggest driver is a lot of people wanting to invest their money here.”
…
How is it going to work out for all these Chinese all-cash investors when they realize that there is no fundamental demand in the U.S. for the homes they bought at 50% price premiums to market value?
What makes you think they even care? They’ve got mountains of greenbacks to expatriate, and keeping 50% of them is better than nothing, should it ever come to that.
I think you mean “bags of greenbacks” which in essence makes them the bag holder and greater fools.
Bush should have sent in ISIS to find the WMD in Iraq:
http://news.yahoo.com/iraq-says-terrorists-seize-chemical-weapons-214329015.html
Would this be a good time to go to cash?
July 9, 2014, 6:01 a.m. EDT
If ever the stock market flashed a ‘sell’ signal, it’s now
Insight: It’s not too late — yet — to move to cash
By Michael Sincere
MIAMI (MarketWatch) — I know what you’re thinking. You’re thinking: Is this market going to go up another 10%? I have no idea. But this being a powerful market that can blow your account clean off if you’re wrong, you’ve gotta ask yourself: “Do I feel lucky?”
Most investors seem to feel pretty confident that this market will never go down. But if you’ve studied bear markets, you know how this story will end. Don’t forget: Human nature never changes.
At the point of maximum giddiness (or pain if you’re short), the market always teaches investors a costly lesson. Right now, investors are chasing yield, but all it takes is one bad day to wipe out a year’s worth of gains.
Sentiment indicators such as Investors Intelligence are at historic highs (that is bearish), and the RSI Wilder indicator is telling us the market is seriously overbought. Yes, the market can still go higher, but it’s on borrowed time.
Don’t believe me? When you are standing 17,000 points in the air at the top of Dow Mountain, and the market is priced for perfection, there is nowhere to go but down.
Inflation has nowhere to go but up
Although the market still has room to rise, so do interest rates. In fact, the odds are very good that interest rates will creep higher, and this will affect bonds and stocks.
There is also an 800-pound gorilla in the room, and that is inflation. Shoppers already know that inflation is spreading. For example, cereal boxes are getting smaller while prices are rising. The price of orange juice and other commodities are skyrocketing. I could give a dozen more examples. The Fed seems to want inflation, as if it’s desirable. Here’s what I say to the Fed: Be careful what you wish for.
….
If there is a crash, Illinois and Chicago will almost immediately go bankrupt due to their pension situations. I think Obama will pull out all the stops to prevent that on his watch, but in the end it is inevitable since that is hardly Tea Party territory.
I’d like to see a discussion on what happens to the stock market in a mid term election year.
If it crashes before the election, the election will be worse for the democrats than 2010.
I think you are right. Even a 20% drop between mid-September and early November would change the control of the US Senate.
I think that the even the establishment Republicans would be afraid of the landslide. Tea Party candidates are allowed to run in districts where they are sacrificial lambs, if you have a wave election, you could have more of them in office and establishment Republicans hate them more than Democrats. Obama and all of the political establishment will pressure the Federal Reserve and the Wall Street brokerages to keep any decline between now and then to 10% or less.
I’m sitting on a lot of gains, but can’t sell until August. So if everyone would be so kind as to wait another month before jumping ship, I’d appreciate it, k?
why can’t you sell? Cap gains wait?
Cap gains wait?
Yes, coupled with company policy and the SEC
I would put the SEC up front.
As I said up above, I cannot see the PTB allowing for a fall of more than 10% before the election. It would weaken their position.
Gotcha. My wife works for a public company with the same issues.
OT, but…
Doing my due diligence on replacing “Vixen”, my 19 yo Volvo (bought new, now 335,000 miles-great model yr, now Volvo’ suck).
Decided to buy used (oops, pre-owned) and wanted to know, other than these website, any ideas? (let the depreciation be the 1st buyer’s hit)
CarTalk
Cars.com
AutoBlog
Plugincars.com (Not ready for primetime for EVs.Tesla is ridiculously expensive.) I’ll let others be early adopters.
Edmunds
From where to buy from? Try AutoTrader.com as well.
I had a good transaction (as a seller) on craigslist two years ago. Sold my 4Runner with 200,000 miles on it. You’ll probably have to wade through some schmucks to find the honest deals on there, but it’s another place to look.
yes
autotrader and craigslist the best places I have found.
The dealers will be happy to sell you a used car at 50% over value so you can finance it.
With subprime auto hitting all time historic peak, you might want to wait.
r u the repo man now?
Yeah. Now fetch me Cheetos. Move.
1-800-BANKRUPT
Fetch. NOW!
bullsh@tter analyst today?
You’re enraged.
Repo Man - best movie EVER!
Call auto mechanics and ask them you will be surprised most will talk to you. do it like this ” I want to buy a used car and was wondering how much it will cost to have you to do a complete check-up for me before I buy” They will answer yes we do that etc, etc, Then ask this ” what are the best used cars out there in your opinion”
They are the ones who have to work on these things, boy when I did this years ago I learned allot about bad ford aluminum composite brakes wow !! The stories they told.
Thanks for the feedback. The EV dream I had, would exclude me from the damn So Ca bi-annual Smog Certificate racket, and a pure EV would eliminate costly engine repairs. Oh well.
drumminj -good data points! Thanks.
HA
Nice to see civility w/ me this AM. Hey, how about buying me a car? LOL
Phyllis Diller said to drive an old car, but wear a new face. LOL
Inch,
Costco Auto not only sells new vehicles but certified pre-owned cars too. They actually hook you up to a local dealer. Costco Auto Might save a few haggles and hassles.
Also check out Cargurus and CarGurus blog.
Cactus
HA
azdude (allergic to car sales people)
drummiinj
Thank you, all. My Vixen has been a low cost of ownership overall, but she’s got 5,000-10,000 miles left and she’ll be dead. I don’t want to throw money in her, including new tires. I plan on junking her. I’ll be in tears. I bought her in my 30’s and now I’m in my 50’s. Volvo made a damn good car back then.
Truecar.com
^
Customer funnel.
One percent’s rental nightmare: How Wall Street scheme blew up in its face
http://www.salon.com/2014/07/09/one_percents_rental_nightmare_how_wall_street_scheme_blew_up_in_its_face/
Once again I don’t really think this was driven by the 1% who tend to often live in communities all over this country and are the local car dealer for example. This is a problem that the .01% have when investing. They live in handful of coastal communities and are totally out-of-touch. They did not see the housing bubble bursting since they did not understand the amount of fraud in liars ‘mortgages. This was occurring at the local level and most of them had never even visited Stockton. Of course, the Fed bailed them out from their mistakes and I would not be surprised to see a similar bail-out in this crony capitalist system. And that is the irony, China is willing to let its speculators take the bath, we are not.
“You know the basics by now: Big Money investors decided to buy up all the foreclosed properties their pals at the banks created during the financial crisis, and rent them out to many of the same people who lost their homes. Then, they started selling securities backed by the rental revenue, just like the mortgage-backed securities from the crisis. Profiting off their own failure: It was Wall Street’s perfect plan.
There was just one problem: turns out that institutional investors have no idea how to manage rental properties….”
Which is why Ben’s a visionary– yet again.
Hey AHansen welcome back.
Just passing through, Dan. Saw this article and thought of the ongoing battle between various posters and the real world.
Take care.
“…the ongoing battle between various posters and the real world.”
What pathological condition makes some of us regulars so determined to be on the right side of history at the end of the Housing Bubble debacle? I can’t explain it…
OMG, I didn’t even know there was such a thing as an RBS! Wow, something on an even shakier foundation than subprime mortgages: payments by renters who have zero investment or equity and will stop paying in a heartbeat!
will stop paying in a heartbeat!
There is another factor - as a renter, if you stop paying you will be evicted in a month or two. However, as a loanowner you get to stick around a while.
As such, the motivations are there for renters to continue to pay, at least enough that they can have a place to live.
So that’s a reason to go deep into debt from which you’ll never recover?
So that’s a reason to go deep into debt from which you’ll never recover?
You really should try to read the thread and understand what’s being discussed.
This is about bonds and the income stream from them, not buying a house.
And you used a false argument to support your position.
China is already moving into drone production even before it becomes a big industry over here:
http://www.chinaeconomicreview.com/moped-couriers-red-tape-ground-commercial-drones
Buyers from China are driving up prices and fueling new construction in Southern California areas such as Arcadia, a city of about 57,500 people with top-rated schools, a large Chinese immigrant community and an array of Chinese restaurants and markets.
The median home price in Arcadia’s 91006 ZIP code was $1.28 million in May, up 18.5 percent from a year earlier, according to research firm DataQuick.
“About 90 percent of my buyers are from China,” said Peggy Fong Chen, a broker with Re/Max Holdings Inc., who sold 80 homes in Arcadia last year. “They want new construction. They want two levels. In China, it is considered a mansion if it has two levels.”
More than three out of four buyers pay cash, said Chen, a native of Hong Kong who’s been selling real estate for 10 years. At least 20 percent are absentee owners who don’t have long-term visas yet. Many purchase houses for their children to attend high school or college, she said.
Tearing Down
Chinese investors are moving into development in Arcadia, Chen said. They are buying lots with homes built in the 1970s and ’80s, tearing them down and erecting sprawling houses like the one Nunez sold for $3.5 million, which has a double-height entry hall and wood-paneled library.
“Local people really cannot afford these most of the time,” Chen said.
I am pleased but stunned that SF could show some common sense:
SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - San Francisco lawmakers approved a law late on Tuesday allowing the forced treatment of mentally ill patients under certain conditions, drawing swift criticism from patient advocacy groups who say the measure tramples civil rights.
The San Francisco Board of Supervisors, which passes legislation for the California city and county, adopted by a vote of 9-2 a measure known as Laura’s Law.
If given final approval it would allow court-ordered outpatient treatment for people with chronic and severe mental illness deemed a risk to themselves or others or who have been jailed or hospitalized more than once in the prior three years, among other conditions.
San Francisco legislator Mark Farrell, who proposed the legislation to the board, said the program would help vulnerable sick people “and provide the families the support they deserve”.
Modeled after a similar involuntary treatment law passed in New York in 1999, California lawmakers passed Laura’s Law in 2002 after 19-year-old Laura Wilcox was shot and killed by a mentally ill patient at a Nevada County behavioral health clinic where she was an intern.
I think I agree with this law, but I hate this naming based on emotion (”laura’s law”). It basically guarantees folks won’t evaluate things objectively/rationally, but instead will go straight to “think of the children!”
I am not sure what the San Francisco law is called, this is just an excerpt, I need to go back and post the link.
Here is the link:
http://health.yahoo.net/news/s/nm/san-francisco-passes-law-allowing-forced-treatment-of-mentally-ill
What I do not understand if it is just like the California state law why would they even need to pass it since the California law would be binding in SF. The law must have other provisions in it and it would have been useful for the reporter to explain them.
So government involvement in health care offends a lot of people. In this case we have the government claiming the authority to compel citizens to accept medical treatment against their will. Presumably these people will be locked up without trial. When this happens to political dissidents in places like China the phrase “held without charge” is used.
The whole thing is pretty Orwellian. Do any of you libertarian types object to this law?
Presumably these people will be locked up without trial.
The excerpt seems to imply it would be court-ordered. As such, I would expect some due-process.
There will of course be due process under Supreme Court precedent. Anytime a liberty interest is implicated there must be clear and convincing evidence that the person is a threat to him or herself or the community.
It sounds like it must be a limited version of due process. First of all, what is the charge involved? Does the accused have a right to a jury trial? What is the burden of proof? Is there an opportunity to appeal if the accused doesn’t get a fair trial?
There is no charge this is not a criminal matter. This is no different than putting someone in quarantine that has small pox.
One of my ex girlfriends today said she finished her chemo and radiation treatments - both chemo and radiation doctors said they did all they could - and got rid of her cancer - think it was kidney cancer. She is for now very weak and will take months to get her strength back.
She did say to all her friends that had she done regular checkups her problem would have been fixed as a minor procedure. She advises anyone and everyone to go for regular checkups.
And I do know people who refuse to ever see doctors. One says “I don’t want to know” - he’s in his 50s.
I’ve gone through biopsies before. The one thing I keep finding is that I get empowered by knowledge. Do I have or don’t I have? And not fear. Biopsies give the answer. Delaying, avoiding provide the fear. A sister’s boyfriend had his thyroid removed because of cancer several years ago. And he’s normal. The fear is not there.
The ex girlfriend just was like many people - careless on diet, sedentary, and not ever thinking of doctors. I am lucky in a way that decided to go to a crummy doctor 3 years ago just for a benchmark on my health. Now I make it all habits. Dentist too. Some doctors are awful, but you can find good ones who know well enough to keep you on track to extending your youthful part of your life.
unfortunately people dont trust doctors anymore.
unfortunately people dont trust doctors anymore.
I think this is a concept that Lessig gets right in ‘Republic Lost’. The “appearance” of corruption, even if it doesn’t exist, causes loss of faith in a system.
In this case, all of the drug reps, literature, etc, make it hard to know if the doc really believes the issue exists, treatment is warranted, and this is really the best treatment in their professional opinion. Or, are they just returning the favor of the drug co’s.
1) Don’t give up on seeking a good doctor. In large metro areas at least there are some very good ones still.
2) Blood tests (properly done with the vials or tubes properly labeled!) do not lie. I had a Vitamin D deficiency and needed to supplement - was prescribed. Let go long enough I could have had a very serious, possible terminal illness.
3) The ordeal my ex went through sobered me up on diet. I stopped being careless and stopped the “live to eat” diet. The good news is by stopping added sugar you allow your own body to absorb more nutrients where they count and heal itself.
4) Her cancer was preventable through diet and exercise and checkups. Many pessimists here will try telling me “you will die anyway” or make some other negative remark. But facts are facts. Ignore them at your peril.
along those lines, last week a former co-worker (female, obese, 61 yr old) had foot surgery to repair a nagging problem. a few days after surgery, while at home, developed breathing problems. long story short, she developed an embolism and died. i was wondering if the weight caused the minor foot problem, which created the need for surgery and then the weight increased risk of blot clot. obesity and lifestyle issues are killers, and i’m as guilty as anyone, so i’m not pointing fingers, just sayin.
Sad fact that yes, obesity can lead to such issues.
“…i was wondering if the weight caused the minor foot problem, which created the need for surgery and then the weight increased risk of blot clot.”
Brings to mind a chilling short story:
Guy de Maupassant
A Piece of String
What I am appalled at is every insurance company wants to pull your teeth but no one want to fix them.
And we are living more each day in a face to face economy…..so let the good teeth people get the jobs first.
Washington, DC Housing Prices Resume Falling From Inflated Levels; Down 3% YoY As Demand Plunges 6%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/DC-home-value/r_12/#metric=mt%3D18%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D14%26r%3D12%26el%3D0
u cant buy a house because of your bankruptcy I assume?
See your bankruptcy attorney now $hitHousePoet. Free yourself of your crushing debt.
u cant get a loan can you? your credit is shot so your stuck sitting on the sidelines cause your broke.
And get out from under that crushing debt load on your rapidly depreciating house.
your living in your car arent you?
Just do $hitHousePoet. You’ll be relieved.
Price Reductions Increase 10% In Los Angeles, CA As Housing Demand Craters
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Orange-County-home-value/r_1286/#metric=mt%3D6%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D6%26r%3D1286%252C16764%252C47568%252C52650%26el%3D0
True that. Relatives house near Lakewood dropped 25K in a month and has a handful of homes around it with grass growing around the realturd signs.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/7-times-irans-strategic-mastermind-170927343.html
Really did I get blocked?
I’ve been a loyal follower since 2004
and the stock advice today was lucid.
Listen I’d really like to pick your brain someday so contact me.
oicky picky pickie
Santa Barbara County, CA Housing Prices Crater 6% YoY; Fear Sets In As Demand Collapses 16%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Santa-Barbara-County-home-value/r_3229/#metric=mt%3D19%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D6%26r%3D3229%26el%3D0
Los Angeles (san gabriel) Sale Prices Plunge 11% YoY At Peak Of Season; Demand Craters To 2008 Lows
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-San-Gabriel-home-value/r_33837/#metric=mt%3D19%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D33837%252C396056%26el%3D0
It’s good see prices cratering at a time of year when the typically inflate. It’s a very good sign.
bs
Get out from under that stinky shack $hithousePoet.
Your posts are really getting under the skin of the HBB’s resident investor shill brigade. Keep up the great work!
Charles Hugh Smith: Why housing will crash again but for different reasons (and what will the tapped-out Fed do this time around?).
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2014/07/why-housing-will-crash-again-but-for.html
Portugal’s biggest bank misses bond payment…PIIGS not so fixed, evidently.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-09/portugals-largest-bank-misses-bond-payment-bonds-collapse
Japan machinery orders dive 20% (after the usual “reputable economists” forecast an increase)…not exactly an indicator of the “green shoots” perennially touted by the Fed and NAR.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/japan-may-core-machinery-orders-dive-almost-20-2014-07-09-19915822
Is Japan having a bad winter just like we had here in the U.S.?
Oh wait…
Yet another incompetent Keynesian central banker takes up her post (in London, the epicenter of global financial fraud). What could possibly go wrong?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/bank-of-england/10957559/nemat-shafik-bank-of-england-interest-rates-MPC-monetary-policy-economics-mark-carney.html
Salinas, CA Housing Prices Sink 5% YoY At Peak Of Selling Season As Demand Plunges 20%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Salinas-Metro-home-value/r_395050/#metric=mt%3D18%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D4%26rt%3D6%26r%3D395050%26el%3D0
Los Angeles, meanwhile, slouches onward towards dystopia.
http://news.yahoo.com/videotaped-beating-woman-la-rodney-king-over-again-002608979.html
Chinese snap up $22B in California homes. From one People’s Republic to another….
http://rt.com/business/171496-china-california-homes-property/
Blackstone and other crony-capitalist DNC patrons booting out the Obama faithful from their tenements…poetic justice, and another story down the MSM’s memory hole.
http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2014/7/9/the-new-kings-ofcrownheights.html
BROOKLYN, N.Y. — For the last 50 years, Nefertiti Macaulay’s family has lived in a one-bedroom apartment at 1059 Union St., in Brooklyn’s Crown Heights neighborhood. The apartment was her grandparents’ first, and after they passed away, it became hers. It was an old building in bad repair, with cracked tiles and mold crawling up the walls. But the rent was cheap and Macaulay liked her neighbors, so she made do.
But last summer the landlord sold the building to BCB Property Management, a private-equity real-estate company located in midtown Manhattan. The tenants were hopeful the sale would mean their apartments would finally get some badly needed attention. Instead, Macaulay received a visitor to her front door. A BCB representative offered her $30,000 to vacate the apartment. When she declined, the price jumped to $60,000.
“The message was clear,” said Macaulay. “This apartment is worth more without you in it.”
$60 k maybe low……… she has a rent controlled apartment at say $400 a month and the LL can get 2400 a month the starting point to give up the lease is 35-40 times the difference so $70-80k is fair…
Remember rent control comes encumbered with the building so the initial sale price is lower by that amount….owners will never get how easy the math is
Pay the tenant 60K and the value of the building could easily go up over $100K when you can charge full market rent… no need to get nasty or illegally toss them out……..and the last line is the truth
Elephant “weeps” after being freed from chains after 50 years. Maybe the GOP elephant will have a similar reaction after being freed from the neo-cons, Wall Street sociopaths, and corporate statists.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2682388/Incredible-sight-elephant-cried-Raju-held-chains-beaten-abused-fifty-years-day-released-tears-rolled-face.html
Another epic fail for Keynesian economics:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-07-09/japocalypse-now-machine-orders-crater-195-biggest-monthly-drop-record
Forward, Free Shit Army! All hail Queen Pelosi and the Democrat Supermajority!
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/hhs-report-percentage-americans-welfare-hits-recorded-high
Even some segments of the establishment media are growing alarmed at the “unintended consequences” of the Fed’s massive money-printing and asset bubbles for the enrichment of the .01%.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10958077/Bank-should-stop-pump-priming-our-buoyant-economy-and-raise-rates.html