Bits Bucket for July 23, 2014
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The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Buying a house today will be the worst financial decision of your life.
Don’t do it!
There is no such thing as “pent-up” demand
Excerpts from Bloomberg article titled “Pay Penalty Haunts Recession Grads as U.S. Economy Mends”
“Students entering the job market in 2010 and 2011 took a 19 percent pay cut from what they could have expected without a recession, according to economists at Yale University in New Haven, Connecticut — about double the penalty in prior downturns.
Many of the estimated 3.37 million graduates earning baccalaureate degrees in those two years accepted positions they were overqualified for out of desperation.
Full-time 25 to 34 year old workers saw income erode to a median of $38,000 in 2012 from $38,760 in 2007 … Salaries for bachelor’s degree or higher grads fell to $49,950 from $52,990 in 2007.
Pay penalties from entering a difficult labor market are long-lasting, research from prior contractions shows. Earnings shortfalls have persisted for 15 years … That’s because early years are critical to lifetime income growth, with half of income gains between 18 and 46 occurring by age 30 as workers switch jobs and climb corporate ladders.
The evidence indicates long-term scarring, not just short-term effects that go away as soon as the recession ends”
More from the article about who won’t be buying $500,000 starter homes
“Tough economics have caused young people to delay big purchases. Just 36.2 percent of households under age 35 owned a home as of the first quarter, down from 41.3 percent in the first quarter of 2008, Census data show.
As of 2012, about 44 percent of recent grads worked in roles that don’t usually require a bachelor’s degree, up 10 percentage points from 2001, Federal Reserve Bank of New York researchers reported in January. They warned that such underemployment may cause “permanent negative effects on wages.”
Compounding the problem is the level of student debt. College loans combined with underemployment and high unemployment among today’s graduates is a fairly toxic combination.”
Housing demand is at 19 year lows and falling. Excess empty and defaulted housing inventory is at record highs and rising. And these two trends will continue until prices hit bottom.
Bottom is a very long way down from here.
That kinda sounds like a “fairly toxic combination” as the article mentioned.
There is $1,200,000,000,000+ of outstanding student loan debt, and that amount is growing every day.
None of these kids will be buying $500,000 starter homes, today, tomorrow, next week, or next decade.
“Pent-up” demand is a lie told by realtors and the media outlets that rely on their advertising money.
A message to lurkers and new HBB readers: the current state of the housing market is a massive bubble, inflated well beyond the 2005-2007 bubble peak, and there are no economic fundamentals to support it.
Therefore, if you buy a house today, at today’s inflated prices, yes it will be the worst financial decision of your life.
I still think giving back your degree and canceling the debt is a good option for maybe 25% of them.
It means giving up your dream to say be a professor of Russian art…or some very specialized subject. Because they all would want valid 4 or 6 yr degrees to even apply for the job. And you wouldn’t have one. And you wouldn’t be able to sue.
Then you can make a career at starbucks with no debt over your head, and maybe buy that starter home.
Yes the employer could still hire you but everyone who has a valid degree and paid off their students loans would be mighty upset and it would be very bad for morale to hire such a person.
I will never agree to loans being discharged in bankruptcy, its just not fair to all those that paid in full.
For ADan.
Have you read Stephen Roach’s book “Unbalanced: The Codependency of America and China”?
I think you would enjoy it and it might help inform your postings here.
I live and work in China and feel I have about 1/1000th of an idea about what’s actually happening here while your posts all seem rather strident and sure.
I’m curious to know why you feel so strongly about your opinions regarding the Chinese economy.
All I can say really is that it is extremely complex and extremely ugly. The CCP needs as much financial ammunition it can create and muster to foam its many runways for itself and its country.
No surprise there, eh?
“I’m curious to know why you feel so strongly about your opinions regarding the Chinese economy.”
Ditto.
It’s different there. The Chinese economy is a command economy thus it will work because those in command will make it work, will command it to work.
Free economies have nobody in command thus they will expand and contract due to the collective actions of all the economy’s participants, hence a free economy sometimes experiences wide fluctuations while a perfectly driven command economy will remain forever stable.
(sarc)
“…will remain forever stable.”
At least as reported for public consumption.
All claims are examined by outside economists as my link from yesterday demonstrated. If China ever starts to lie, there will be numerous articles written about it.
and economists are never wrong; just slightly deluded.
Most economists are capable of analyzing data and verifying it. Where they fail is predicting future activity not quantifying what has happened. Since checking on the accuracy of Chinese data requires the latter not the former, I do have some trust in them.
“If China ever starts to lie,”
-bow- I get it now, your posts are actually masterful satire!
I salute you.
“The CCP needs as much financial ammunition it can create and muster to foam its many runways for itself and its country.”
With blue skies and 7.5% annual growth on the horizon for many years to come, why is there a need for foam on the runways?
I have only read excerpts and I will try to get to it but I do believe events have moved beyond the book. I feel strongly about China for exactly the reason I felt strongly about Catastrophic AGW (CAGW) six years ago, I felt we were being sold a bill of goods and time has vindicated my position. Just a few years ago, I often talked about the problems in China including, pollution, water and aging population. However, China is moving rapidly up the food chain and is using its intellectual capital not its dwindling natural resources to fuel growth. When the facts change, my opinion changes and I see that it is silicon valley that will soon be facing the challenges. The globalists thought China would be a great place to produce low value goods but now their businesses are being challenged by China and many would like to knock them down before they undermine globalists with a new reserve currency but I think it is too late.
An example of the new China:
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2014-07/23/content_17903803.htm
$25 Trillion of debt can build lots of stuff.
$25 trillion of assets can produce a lot of stuff.
Overcapacity makes it hard to pay back the debts. Fraud makes it hard to pay back the debts. Roads to nowhere makes it hard to pay back the debts. Empty cities will never be occupied. It’s a shame really, but massive credit expansions come to an unpleasant end. As many people who got raises and bought multiple spec homes will be unemployed and hungry. All because of unprecedented greed and foolishness.
I stand by the prediction of 7% growth this year and next. You are not providing any data that suggests that most or even a significant percentage of the money has been wasted. China is now producing companies like Alibaba, it is a long way from making baseball caps with a profit margin of maybe ten cents a cap.
There have been plenty of articles posted on the HBB pointing out bits and pieces of the massive corruption, fraud, grifting and misallocation. I think these things bounce off of you like Teflon. You trust the official communist party news releases rather exclusively.
Look at the long math. Biggest credit expansion on the planet. The growth isn’t organic. I welcome the Chinese to advance, but their foolishness with credit expansion is going to teach a painful lesson, just like every other time in every other place. The fragility of it poses a huge risk to peace in the future.
$25 trillion of debt disguised as assets can build a lot of fluff.
“…AGW (CAGW) six years ago, I felt we were being sold a bill of goods and time has vindicated my position…”
Jello talk. I recall you believed AGW was real, just exaggerated.
Do you not see the “C” in my statement. The view that we have to radically change the burning of fossil fuels or catastrophic consequences would occur, I have always rejected and still do. (Think Al Gore) The view that man plays a minor role in warming I have always accepted. It is not my problem that you cannot understand a view with some nuance.
My response to your question will post soon, made the mistake of putting a link in it. BTW, from Bejing Review today, the Chinese character for crisis and opportunity is the same, and GS seeks opportunity in China’s non-performing loans. Obviously, they believe things are getting better not worse:
Foreign financial institutions and sovereign investment funds including Goldman Sachs (GS.NYSE) and Warburg Pincus are lining up a deal to buy a 20% stake in China Huarong Asset Management for about US$2 billion, Reuters reported, citing unnamed sources. Other investors preparing to buy into China’s biggest manager of non-performing loans include Malaysian state investor Khazanah Nasional Bhd, China state-backed CITIC Group and China International Capital Corp. The investors are seeking a share in the profitable business of bad loan management in China. State-owned bad debt managers like Huarong are benefiting from a rise in non-performing loans in China as the economy slows.
Bloomberg article on the global race to the bottom titled “Ethiopia becomes China’s China in Search for Cheap Labor” reports that Ethiopian workers make about $40 a month, less than 10% of wages in China:
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-22/ethiopia-becomes-china-s-china-in-search-for-cheap-labor.html
There are two other previous posts but I will add this. I have friendships with Chinese that go back decades. The oldest ones involve Taiwanese but I do have some mainland Chinese contacts. They have business contacts in China. A few years ago they seem oblivious to the middle income country trap that Roach talks about, but they seem to get it now as does China. However, from the excerpts I have read, Roach seems too eager to get China to create entitlement programs and reduce the Chinese high savings rate. To me, he seems to be serving the interests of the globalists and not the real interests of China. Certainly, China spending much more and saving less would be great for the U.S. right now but I am not convinced it is in the best interest of China.
Looks like the one child policy has created a lot of the problems.
Here’s why so many elderly Chinese are collecting trash
Life is rough for retirees in the world’s second largest economy.
http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/140704/elderly-chinese-collecting-trash
According to the World Bank, some 2.5 million people work in the “informal waste management sector” in China, picking through trash for recyclable materials to sell. As any visitor to a major Chinese city will soon notice, many of these trash pickers are elderly people, unable to support themselves on meager government pensions.
Traditionally, elderly Chinese would rely on their children for support. Filial piety is one of the country’s most important core values. However, the one child policy has upended this, as more and more families end up with one or two working adults supporting multiple retirees. If a pensioner’s child dies, or is unable to work, there is usually no one else to help with the burden.
That has left many retirees dependent on the basic pension provided by the government — and “basic” is a painfully accurate description. In Shanghai, one of the richest (and most expensive) areas of the country, residents are paid 500 yuan ($82) per month. In Shaanxi province, in central China, retirees only receive about a fifth of that. In comparison, the average monthly wage was 4,692 yuan ($750) in 2012, according to the municipal bureau of human resources and social security.
2.5 million out of a population of over 1.3 trillion?
That’s Billion, right? Not trillion. I agree it’s not a huge chunk of their population, although it is a lot of people, but the point is the meagerness of their pensions. $82 a month in super expensive Shanghai? One fifth that in less expensive areas? And they’ve only got one kid to help support them. This was in the article:
¨A 2007 United Nations study estimated that in 2005 there were 16 retirees for every 100 workers in China. By 2025, the ratio will be 64 to 100.¨
Yes billion. And the point is due to economic growth the Chinese have been making more money and are saving 30% of their incomes. The old that worked under the communist system are the worse off but as people retire they will have much more to live on.
P.S. This has occurred in all the ex-communist countries of the world, the pensions that the old earned under the old system are totally inadequate. As the countries get wealthy due to capitalism the gap grows between the workers and the old pensioners.
But the ex-communist countries didn’t have a one child policy, so they didn’t have the demographic problem that China has. And when China’s real estate bubble collapses, that will wipe out a lot of retirement investments, as it did here. 64 retirees to every 100 workers seems like a near impossible problem, and it’s coming up on them quickly, in about a decade.
Oddfellow that is the difference between governmental pensions that are primarily Ponzi schemes and private savings. If you save 30% of your income you do not need anyone to fund your retirement so the ratio of young to old is irrelevant. It is the Ponzi scheme of social security which is a major reason why politicians are pushing immigration. Look even if houses fall 30% in China, it will not wipe out people’s savings, mortgage debt is very very low in China, most people do own their houses outright or have mortgages at about 10% of the value of the house.
http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/Asia/China/Price-History
From link that will soon post:
Nevertheless, mortgage market lending growth has been on a declining trend since its peak of 59.7% in 2009. The decline started in 2010, also the time when the government started imposing property curbs. China’s mortgage market remains small, however, with home mortgage loans at around 14.5% of GDP in 2012.
Compare that ratio to the U.S. where it is about 100%. Link will post soon.
http://www.intellectualtakeout.org/library/chart-graph/us-mortgage-debt-relative-us-gdp-and-us-housing-wealth
The fact that they’ve bought their houses with cash will wipe out a lot of their savings. Also, they save a large part of their income, but make very little, especially most people in rural areas. According to the Telegraph:
¨According to Lloyds TSB, the typical British household has £5,000 in savings and investments. This compares to over £19,000 in China.
German households, meanwhile, have average savings of almost £9,000¨
Your post contradicts your statement. The fact that Chinese have almost four times the savings of the British and two times the Germans is astounding. 19,000 pounds and increasing rapidly proves my point that when it comes time for their retirement they will not be living on eighty two dollars a month.
P.S. at current exchange rates that is about $32,300. I wonder how many Americans have that.
¨ I wonder how many Americans have that.¨
Fewer, certainly, but our demographics are not as bad as theirs. They apparently have to fund nearly their entire retirement and old age health care on that $32,000. I just don’t see how they are going to do it.
You still don’t get it, their incomes are going up 10% per year and they are saving 30% of their new incomes every year. They will have a lot more than 32,000 by the time they retire. Isn’t the free enterprise system wonderful, inequality for sure but just a few decades ago, the Chinese were living on less than a dollar per day? But the left would rather have equality at poverty levels than everyone making more money but some people really rich.
¨their incomes are going up 10% per year and they are saving 30% of their new incomes every year¨
As long as that’s a mortal lock, I guess they’ll be fine. It sounds like what everyone was saying about the US economy during the height of our bubble, though, when everything was going to be fine as long as house prices kept going up 10% every year.
“Certainly, China spending much more and saving less would be great for the U.S. right now but I am not convinced it is in the best interest of China.”
What is in the best interest of China is for the U.S. citizens to spend more and save less and maybe even convince U.S. citizens to take out a bunch of loans so as to add to their spending power because …
… because much of this money that will be spent will then flow over to China just as it used to flow over to China - just as it used to flood over to China - up until to a few years ago.
These were the Golden Years for China, these were the years that China prospered due to the fact that much of the rest of the world went a bit nuts. The rest of the world is still a bit nuts but it is both nuts and broke, and while they being nuts is good for China they being broke is not.
These were the Golden Years for China
the golden years for china began 1979 when they began to make reforms to allow more free market capitalism.
Exactly, and if they continue with the reforms it will continue. Since about half my posts seem to be in cyberspace, I am signing off:
http://www.bjreview.com.cn/business/txt/2014-07/21/content_630605.htm
If they continue with capitalism, they will get clobbered by the automation Marx wrote about. Their ideological timing is awful.
“China spending much more and saving less…”
You have missed the past decade. China is now the biggest smoldering pile of debt on the planet.
They have very little external debt, the companies have debt, the people have assets. Funny that is just the opposite from the U.S. organized by the globalist banksters and their hand picked presidents including Obama.
They have eaten their seed corn for an entire generation. Unproductive assets built with debt bring but a passing veil of prosperity.
Just more clichés without data.
“Just more clichés without data.”
Here’s some data, but it’s old — two days stale.
I don’t pretend to know what’s going to happen in China, but I’d like to weigh in with some thoughts about why it’s different there:
1. I used to regularly watch their stock market. It sure didn’t seem to have anything like a plunge protection team.
2. They put to death an awful lot of people over there, including for corruption.
These are two large differences, especially the latter. Imagine if their housing goes to crap and China:
1. Puts to death the main fraudsters and hucksters and,
2. Let’s the people who gambled lose out.
If they were to do this - and I think it’s likely they would - then it’ll be a much different outcome than where people ramp up the printing press and reward the too-big-to-fail.
Just my two cents. Thoughts?
I agree with the post. However, I see a needed correction in housing prices not a collapse so I do not see a chance to fully test your point.
Do they execute fraudsters and hucksters, or is the death penalty mainly used for violent criminals?
Sure:
http://bit.ly/UocUJr
Well if they have a giant bubble due to fraud the past executions have not had enough of a deterrent effect. After I got your Google link to work I found an article on Business Insider that had the following sentence:
China’s legal system is widely criticized because those with political clout are said to get off with lighter sentences.
The problem could be that the hucksters and fraudsters have friends and family in the party.
“China’s legal system is widely criticized because those with political clout are said to get off with lighter sentences.”
Clearly, China has finally caught up with the West.
*Snark off*
Comment by MightyMike
2014-07-22 22:34:56
First of all, I’ve never stated that I think that the government is wonderful.
you’re more transparent than you think. why don’t you start telling us some things about how bad government is?
Second, I also never wrote that it’s wrong for people to work for the government.
he didn’t say that you said it was ‘wrong for people to work for the government’. read again what he actually said:
“We have someone who thinks the government is wonderful saying those who disagree with him are wrong to do work for the government.”
What I wrote is that any person who believes that taxation is theft should also believe that it’s wrong to work for the government.
which is what he said you were saying. you know, ‘those who disagree with you are wrong to work for the government’.
That’s all that this little debate is about.
he understood what you were saying and you didn’t understand what he was saying.
If you believe a then you should believe b.
why? what if a government job is the only one he can find that pays enough money. if he thinks taxation is theft, should he starve? if you think that breathing is taking oxygen from everyone else, should you stop breathing? your moral indignation is sanctimonious and illogical.
Since I don’t go around saying that taxation is theft, that doesn’t apply to me.
your moral superiority is laughable.
Oh boy…
why don’t you tell us again about how you think dollars are ‘backed’ by what you can buy with them?
“why don’t you tell us again about how you think dollars are ‘backed’ by what you can buy with them?”
Okay, I’ll give it a shot: Dollars are backed by what you can buy with them.
I use dollars every day to buy what I need. What do you use everyday to buy what you need?
What I can buy with dollars is what gives dollars their value, it’s what gives backing to their value.
ok combo, i’ll tell you what i’ve already told whacked. you don’t understand what ‘backing a currency means’.
what you’re talking about is simply merchandising.
what you can buy with a currency, isn’t backing. it’s simply representing the present value of the currency.
backing is when some authority promises you’ll always be able to get ‘x’ amount of something in exchange for the currency. the ’something’ is specific, like gold or silver, but it could technically be anything that was in the promise.
I use dollars every day to buy what I need.
they still aren’t backed.
What do you use everyday to buy what you need?
non-secretary.
What I can buy with dollars is what gives dollars their value,
no, it isn’t what gives them their value.
it’s what gives backing to their value.
value isn’t ‘backed’.
Does anyone here think that, say, a Super Bowl ticket - a piece of paper - has no value?
One could argue that what ever value the ticket has will be greatly diminished once the Super Bowl has been played but until such a time the ticket will have a value and this value is backed by what the ticket can be traded for, which is a seat at the Super Bowl.
Does anyone here disagree with this? Does anyone here disagree with the idea that what backs the value of a Super Bowl ticket - what gives it its value - (again, a piece of paper) is what it can be traded for?
“Dollars are backed by what you can buy with them.”
Yes. Like for instance, I could go out this morning and buy an ounce of gold for $1307 or one bitcoin for $619.94.
Does anyone here think that, say, a Super Bowl ticket - a piece of paper - has no value?
does anyone here recall me saying that dollars have no value?
Does anyone here disagree with the idea that what backs the value of a Super Bowl ticket - what gives it its value - (again, a piece of paper) is what it can be traded for?
again, value isn’t backing. what gives the ticket value is the trust that you’ll be able to see the game. again, you don’t know what ‘backing’ is. often when a currency is backed, (like the swiss franc) it isn’t backed to its full present value.
fiats go up and down in value so backing it with the present value of gold or silver is not only difficult, but could be suicidal for the currency. that’s the reason the swiss moved away from full backing. they now only promise you’ll get ’something’ for the franc.
@ combo
btw, i did answer your previous post. it just hasn’t shown up yet.
Yes what is up with that, I understand when they have links but even the ones without links seem to be disappearing today.
i wouldn’t worry about it. i’ve only had one post that didn’t eventually show up on the board in all the time i’ve been posting here. it will be there eventually.
Yes. Like for instance, I could go out this morning and buy an ounce of gold for $1307 or one bitcoin for $619.94.
like i said before. you truly don’t understand what ‘backing’ is. you think buying and selling is backing.
the more you post on this, the bigger the fool you look like.
so if the dollar is ‘backed’ according to you, where can you bring your dollars to get some gold or silver if the currency collapses? is the currency ‘backed’ by anything if it becomes worthless?
were zimbabwe dollars ‘backed’ by anything as they lost their value? could you bring them anywhere for a guaranteed amount of gold or silver?
“so if the dollar is ‘backed’ according to you, where can you bring your dollars to get some gold or silver if the currency collapses?”
I dunno. Where are you planning to sell your gold or silver when PM prices collapse?
Yes. Like for instance, I could go out this morning and buy an ounce of gold for $1307 or one bitcoin for $619.94.
You could buy things with Weimer currency and Zimbabwe dollar too. However, you would not want to hang on to them for too long.
I dunno.
yep, that says it all.
Smart people do not sell precious metals when precious metal prices “collapse.”
Smart people back up the truck and load up on precious metals in that event.
If a currency is legitimately “backed” then it represents and is redeemable in trade for something that is durable and of limited supply (such as gold) that is actually held in deposit.
I prefer, rather than using the word “backed”, that we use the term “limited”.
I don’t expect this term to catch on soon.
The problem with this kind of limiting, is that it limits the amount of money that can be stolen from the populace by the government and the Banks.
That was some of the worst ducking and weaving I’ve seen on the internet, ever. I would have been embarrassed for him if I weren’t the one doing the schooling.
“…your moral superiority is laughable.”
yes, your moral superiority is showing again, except you don’t have any.
do you think he meant not to judge things that obviously goes against the morality he spoke about? did he meant that we shouldn’t judge theft?
maybe we shouldn’t judge lying either?
” which is what he said you were saying. ”
Maybe it’s time for you to take a day off from the blog?
He’s starting to sound like Clinton: “It depends on what the definition of is is.”
why don’t you take your own advice?
You don’t like or want intelligent posts?
TJ, my comment was meant for Ibbots.
yes, i knew that.
tj = Albuquerquedan?!
More worried about our friends on the left, getting confused.
tj = Albuquerquedan?!
See what I mean, of course Whac is easily confused.
tj = Albuquerquedan?!
nuthin’ gets by you, does it?
See what I mean, of course Whac is easily confused.
he demonstrates it almost every day.
funny how he complains about the pollution on the board when he is the one that shows up and starts it.
my post was to mighty mike and then whaco had to jump in with a bunch of nonsense just to stir thing up apparently.
Any criticism of Obama no matter how accurate is considered pollution by Whac. Ten links no matter how redundant to things already posted by Ben or others that is o.k. Sometimes you really wonder if he has even read one of them since he does not seem to understand what they are saying.
It does get confusing when the same poster posts consecutive posts under different names.
What are you even talking about? Just because I agree with TJ, I am the same poster? If you cannot tell the difference between our posts both style and substance you are truly clueless.
“…you are truly clueless.”
Says the poster who claims anyone who disagrees with him is in a secret cabal with Obama…
Your little charade crumbling Idgits?
Maps of how public labor union goons are bankrupting this country:
http://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-government-employees-make-2014-7
I must have ignored Ben’s statement that I stated that working for the government would only be unethical for people who claim that taxation is theft. That’s because I never wrote that anyone should believe that government employment is immoral for certain people. What I said that is that people who believe that taxation is theft should believe government employment is wrong for everyone.
I don’t believe that taxation is theft, so I don’t believe that Bill did anything unethical when he worked for the government. So I wasn’t accusing him yesterday of doing anything wrong.
There’s no moral superiority or sanctimony in any of that. I just pointed out an inconsistency in Bill’s positions.
To answer your question, if the only available jobs were government jobs, a person who believes that taxes are stolen from taxpayers should believe that working for the government is wrong. As I stated yesterday that would be because the payee would be receiving something that doesn’t belong to the employer.
It’s just logic. If you just think about it, there is one thing that I haven’t mentioned yet. It’s possible that Bill could think that theft is not unethical behavior. In that case there would be no ethical problem working for the government.
I must have ignored Ben’s statement
ignored? nah you just conveniently misunderstood, as you so often do.
That’s because I never wrote that anyone should believe that government employment is immoral for certain people.
more misdirection?
What I said that is that people who believe that taxation is theft should believe government employment is wrong for everyone.
and my question was ‘why’ should they?
I don’t believe that taxation is theft, so I don’t believe that Bill did anything unethical when he worked for the government.
oh yes you do! you believe that if bill believes that taxation is theft, then him working for the government is wrong. you’re trying to accuse him of being a hypocrite.
There’s no moral superiority or sanctimony in any of that.
the implication was that it’s wrong if he thinks taxation is theft and that you wouldn’t do it. that’s implying sanctimonious moral superiority.
I just pointed out an inconsistency in Bill’s positions.
and as usual, you were wrong.
To answer your question, if the only available jobs were government jobs, a person who believes that taxes are stolen from taxpayers should believe that working for the government is wrong.
and as Ben, and i believe HA has pointed out to you, you are wrong.
As I stated yesterday that would be because the payee would be receiving something that doesn’t belong to the employer.
apparently you didn’t read my first rebuttal to your post on this thread. try reading it again.
It’s possible that Bill could think that theft is not unethical behavior.
no, it isn’t possible. Bill has never written a post claiming that theft is ok. this is just another unethical red herring from you. you must keep them on ice, in your cooler.
In that case there would be no ethical problem working for the government.
there’s no ethical problem working for the government, as long as it doesn’t ask you to do something that’s unethical. unfortunately there are many instances today where government does ask its employees to do unethical things. Bill, as i understand it, wasn’t doing anything he felt was unethical.
I was just going through the logical possibilities. Bill has never written that theft is OK, but he’s also never written that it’s wrong.
You didn’t rebut my statement and neither did HA. Ben didn’t really address it directly. It taxation is theft, the government’s possession of tax revenue is wrong. The government has something which doesn’t belong to it. If the government has something which it did not properly acquire, it should give that money back to the people that it was stolen from. It should not use it to pay people for services rendered. People who believe that taxes are theft should not work for tax money because they should believe that that money belongs to someone else.
That’s the crux of my argument. If you want to make a counter-argument you need to address that, not make irrelevant attacks on me as being sanctimonious or a lover of government.
People who believe that taxes are theft should not work for tax money because they should believe that that money belongs to someone else.
says the lofty moralist.
if they need to feed their family, should their family go hungry for the sake of your supposedly high ethics? can’t they have a conscience and still do what they need to do to survive?
can’t they do it without the mightymikes of the world trying to make them feel like crap in the process?
you never answered Ben’s question to you. you just danced around it.
you’re the hypocrite, not Bill.
Once again you’re engaging in insults. You’re also not saying anything about the logical steps that I described. You also don’t understand my sentiments. I’m really just saying that he holds two positions that are inconsistent and one of them is expressed with an intense angry vehemence.
Ben posed this question:
If I drive on a government road to work, am I violating some sacred libertarian oath? Or do I have a choice?
My answer is that this issue doesn’t apply to Ben. He has not claimed that taxes are theft.
Once again you’re engaging in insults.
and you engage in lies.
I’m really just saying that he holds two positions that are inconsistent
and i’m really just saying they’re not.
My answer is that this issue doesn’t apply to Ben.
your answer is that you don’t want to argue with Ben. he asked you a question. whether you think it applies or not, why don’t you answer?
Well if you want to get all literal about things I’m not aware of any libertarian oath that he might have taken. If he has in fact taken such an oath, I’d have to see to the text to answer his question.
Regarding this:
I’m really just saying that he holds two positions that are inconsistent
and i’m really just saying they’re not.
You didn’t explain why those two positions are inconsistent. You just posed these questions:
if they need to feed their family, should their family go hungry for the sake of your supposedly high ethics? can’t they have a conscience and still do what they need to do to survive?
can’t they do it without the mightymikes of the world trying to make them feel like crap in the process?
Well if you want to get all literal about things I’m not aware of any libertarian oath that he might have taken.
you really need to take remedial reading 101. he wasn’t claiming he took a libertarian oath. he was asking you if he was violating some libertarian oath, that presumably he wasn’t aware of. you can’t even get what he was asking you.
why don’t you just admit that you don’t know how to answer his question, rather than using some kind of misdirection to avoid it.
I don’t know what oath we could be talking about here. You say that he’s not aware of any oath. I’m not aware of any libertarian oath either. The only way that a person can violate an oath is if he has taken that oath.
Let’s not take that word oath literally. The fact is that I don’t know in detail what Ben’s political positions are. I can give an example. Some time in the past year Bill was talking about how some states are more libertarian than others. He claimed that the two states that had legalized marijuana had made a move in the libertarian direction.
Well I made a comment to the effect that there was little difference between the states when it came to libertarian philosophy. From books and articles that I read many years ago by people like Milton Friedman, my understanding was that libertarians felt that the only proper role of government was to prevent people from harming other people, not to stop people from harming themselves. Therefore, all drugs should be legal and unregulated, including prescription drugs like Lipitor.
Ben then stated that I was wrong. He wrote that not all libertarians held that position. Then he described the specific problems caused by marijuana prohibition.
So I clearly don’t know what all of his political positions are. Apparently libertarians can disagree about things. They’re not one monolithic mind. Since I haven’t read his positions on taxes and roads, I can’t answer his question. So I supposed that you’re right when you say that I don’t know how to answer it.
How would you answer it?
‘Apparently libertarians can disagree about things.’
Ain’t that the truth.
First of all, you are the one saying what Bill’s belief might be (taxation is theft), then holding him to your interpretation of it.
What if Bill believes some version of “taxation is theft” that goes something like this: taxing one group to transfer wealth to another group is theft. This would be different that taxing everyone to pay for services for everyone like fire/police/roads. Then your argument falls apart. There are 1000 variations of this nuanced belief that I can’t possibly enumerate, yet you seem to have a very specific definition that you are holding up for your argument.
Therefore, with the tiniest pinprick your entire argument falls apart; in this example, because Bill would be working to earn money going to the common defense. Trying to set up a strawman of someone else’s beliefs to knock down is absurd and counterproductive. It’s better to ASK BILL what his view is on taxation, rather than to put words in his mouth, then discuss those points directly, rather than trying to stereotype him into some preconceived notion of what you think he thinks, and mock and attack a view that is probably not even his.
We argued about it extensively yesterday. He could have clarified his position, but he chose not to. He specifically mentioned that he was doing military work, but he did not state that taxation for the purpose of national defense was OK.
It’s possible that he holds such a position. Maybe he’ll see what you’ve written here and chime in with a clarification.
It’s not just possible, its probable that out of the numerous nuanced positions on this subject, the one you chose to interpret is not the same as his.
Further, yesterday you dismissed the argument that immorally contradictory imaginary superpositions of thinking that you are making up should apply to the “working for stolen money” argument, but not to the “refusal to aid the starving” argument.
Why was that again?
It’s not just possible, its probable that out of the numerous nuanced positions on this subject, the one you chose to interpret is not the same as his.
As I stated, we discussed that extensively and Bill never corrected me.
Also, I took a very quick look at yesterday’s discussion. When did the issue of helping the starving come up and who said what about that?
I have to say that I agree with you. If Bill think that taxation for defense is OK, then there is no inconsistency for him today that it’s ethical to do defense work for the government. If he would have simply stated that, we could have all saved a lot of time.
meant to write:
If Bill thinks that taxation for defense is OK, then there is no inconsistency for him to say that it’s ethical to do defense work for the government.
No.
I’m saying taxation is wrong and defense is right. See, this is why you are ignorant. You assume that defense must be funded through taxes. You know NOTHING about libertarianism. So don’t make yourself a fool by writing what you do not know about.
It is not unethical to be a government employee or contractor, particularly since many areas are monopolized by government. I was skillful in defense industry. I haven’t seen a private army yet. But you are too ignorant to understand competing defense in libertarianism.
Defense of society is a value for any free society, whether there is a government or not. It is a market. Reference: “The Market for Liberty,” by Morris and Linda Tannehill. This discusses anarcho capitalist defense firms. I read that book BEFORE I went into my field of defense work. I read it 35 years ago, along with Murray Rothbard’s “For a New Liberty.” That was probably before you were born. I know what libertarianism is.
It happened that the US government has a sole monopoly on defense. Just like many teachers who receive paychecks from the US government are radical libertarians like myself who also say taxation is theft. All libertarians by definition agree: TAXATION IS THEFT.
Don’t tell us what libertarianism is by your definition. You don’t know what it is.
You assume that defense must be funded through taxes. You know NOTHING about libertarianism.
That first sentence is clear untrue and the second is irrelevant. This entire discussion has been about taxes. Did you forget? We’re not discussing alternate means of funding defense. If I know noting about libertarianism it doesn’t matter, because we’re not discussing that either.
“If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, it’s not ‘affordable’ nor can you ‘afford’ it.”
Exactly. DO NOT borrow money and save your cash. You’re going to need every penny of it.
Year over Year Housing Demand Plunges In 22 of 24 Marlyland Counties
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/MD-home-value/r_27/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D4%26r%3D27%252C2975%252C3246%252C2626%26el%3D0
Remember…. a house… any house represents extreme levels of debt and personal financial losses.
Well, I’m sure the new casinos will turn all this around!! (sarcasm)
It must feel a great as a new buyer picking up a house that is overpriced due to someone getting assistance toward their principal.
Are the free markets done here?
Who?
Remember…. Housing demand is cratering and at 19 year lows.
DFW home foreclosure filings down more than 50 percent for August
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/residential-real-estate/20140722-d-fw-home-foreclosure-filings-down-more-than-50-percent-for-august.ece
Yet millions of foreclosures in the pipeline across the state of Texas while demand craters and prices head south.
Whatta ya gonna do Idjits.
Millions of foreclosures! In your fantasy world maybe. Your detachment from reality would be impressive but for the fact it is a symptom of something much more serious.
They’re doing wonderful things int he world of psychology and psychiatry nowadays fyi.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/case_shiller_home_price_index_dallas
Remember…. Case Shiller excludes foreclosures and defaults.
With 25 million excess empty houses, a few million of those in the state of TX alone, it sounds like you’ve got a problem.
The radio has been advertising house flipping seminar’s around the Bay Area and I received some “free” tickets for a house flipping seminar in Monterey. The market peak is fast approaching. Me thinks the RE crowd wants to unload their recent acquisitions quickly now.
Been hearing the same flipping crap here in Chicago for a couple of months now - doesn’t matter if it is lib radio or Rino radio - all the same - the ‘investment’ class is vacating and quick.
Simi Valley, CA Housing Demand Craters To 10 Year Low As Prices Turn Negative At Peak Of Selling Season
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Simi-Valley-home-value/r_27110/#metric=mt%3D30%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D8%26r%3D27110%26el%3D0
http://www.movoto.com/simi-valley-ca/market-trends/
are you surrounded by beer cans tonight?
Santa Barbara, CA Housing Prices Crater 14% YoY As Demand Plunges 15%
http://www.zillow.com/local-info/CA-Santa-Barbara-Metro-home-value/r_395064/#metric=mt%3D19%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D6%26rt%3D6%26r%3D395064%252C47570%252C13712%252C19078%26el%3D0
the Permanent Democrat Supermajority, linked from Drudge:
“Each week, more illegal immigrants enter Texas than people who are born in the state during the same time period.
On Monday’s The Laura Ingraham Show, Dan Patrick, the Texas state Senator who is the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor, said two weeks ago, Border Patrol agents “apprehended almost 10,000 people crossing the border, in one week.”
Patrick also said law enforcement officials have told him that somewhere between one in five and one in ten illegal immigrants are actually apprehended.
“Don’t focus on the numbers that are apprehended, that’s the ones we catch … You do the math,” he said, saying that there are way more than 11 million illegal immigrants who are supposedly in the country, according to official estimates.
Those numbers are crazy if true. And the Prez is going to grant them all citizenship just to ensure the great Dem Supermajority
We’ll have to find a way to flip them. Rubin for Prez!!!
It is lucky he cannot grant them citizenship, he can fail to deport him while he is in office but he cannot give them citizenship. Paul/Cruz or Cruz/Paul is the ticket.
He can let them stay long enough to have babies that are american citizens, then have a big cry fest over separating children from their illegal parents.
Rubin? Assume you mean Rubio.
Would be nice to see if Rick Perry’s deployment of the Texas National Guard to the border is more than just a symbolic move. And if they’re not going to deport the criminal alien invaders, they should dump *ALL* of them in Washington DC.
Texas has something close to 3.5 border agents per mile. The addition of the 1000 Nat’l Guard troops increases it to 4.5 per mile. Still woefully inadequate.
Like someone else pointed out, the Nat’l Guard will only be supporting the border agents, not actually apprehending and detaining illegals.
I am not a badge licker, especially when it comes to the militarization of municipal police forces, but NPR has been pushing really hard to frame a narrative that any enforcement action taken by the Border Patrol is police brutality, and probably racist. Article here:
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2014/07/18/In-Mid-Crisis-NPR-Targets-Border-Patrol-Officers
This is not a “humanitarian crisis” as the libtard media says. It is a criminal invasion. 10,000+ a week apprehended, most who are illiterate in both English and Spanish, bringing nothing to this country but a hand out for free sh*t.
Obama and the Democrat Party own this.
Obama and the Democrat Party own this.
Did Breitbart not have anything on the William Wilberforce law?
Congress likes to put fancy titles on its legislative handiwork, but they should probably just call everything the Law of Unintended Consequences, especially immigration bills.
The 1965 Cuban Adjustment Act gave all people fleeing that Communist island the right to legal residence once they reach U.S. soil. Over time, this evolved into the “wet foot, dry foot” policy, whereby the U.S. government could exclude a Cuban rafter caught in the surf off Key West — but not after he had touched the beach.
Many a desperate Cuban has perished at sea trying to avoid one U.S. agency, the Coast Guard, in hopes of reaching another U.S. agency, the one with the green cards, on land.
President George W. Bush signed the William Wilberforce Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act on Dec. 23, 2008, thinking he was fighting the global traffic in sex slaves, many of them children. The Democratic Congress that passed the bill agreed. Hence its title, an homage to 19th-century Britain’s greatest foe of the slave trade.
Half a decade later, the Wilberforce Act has mutated into a source of chaos, the victims of which are children, and the greatest beneficiaries, human traffickers.
This law’s special mistake was to guarantee an immigration hearing to unaccompanied minors arriving in the United States on the theory they might be victims of sex trafficking and to let them live with U.S.-based family, if any, until a judge was available.
Kids from next-door Mexico and Canada were excepted. But the bill’s authors apparently forgot about Central America or underestimated the desire of Central Americans who reside in the United States, with or without documents, to extract their children from violence and poverty back home, even at the risk of a dangerous journey north.
They failed to anticipate that trafficking mafias in Mexico would market temporary entry pending the delayed hearings as a new form of “permiso” (“permit”) and can charge families $10,000 per child to pursue it.
So, here we are: The Wilberforce Act, logical and humane on paper, has been overthrown by an influx of Central American kids that reached 10,146 in fiscal 2012, 20,805 in fiscal 2013 and 39,133 between last October and June 15, according to the Los Angeles Times.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-lane-a-national-immigration-scandal/2014/07/09/26dd4384-077e-11e4-8a6a-19355c7e870a_story.html
Still playing the “it’s Bush’s fault” card?
This is all Obama, all Pelosi, and from beyond the grave, all Teddy Kennedy.
Why don’t you email Ben your home address and the rest of us will pool some money to send a busload of these “unaccompanied minor” 16 and 17 year olds who have previous convictions for assault, rape, murder, to your neighborhood.
No, the article says that the law was passed by a Democratic Congress and then signed by Bush, so it’s not only Bush’s fault. My main point was about the dangers of getting your news from Breitbart.
To be fair, illegal immigration has been an issue for decades. Both parties are guilty of turning a blind eye.
Some suggest conservatives historically gave illegal immigration a wink and nod in order to use the cheap labor to have leverage over labor unions. Other suggest it is the Dems recruiting new voters. Historically, during robust times, illegals are a highly mobile and cheap labor force and people weren’t as bothered by them.
In Texas, two big conservative guys, a home builder and the guy who started HEB, have both used their political connections to go soft on illegals. The success of their business depends on them.
Putting 100% of the blame on the current admin is a little near sighted.
I’m in the group of people who think we need to militarize the border, or let vigilantes do it. Use drones, land mines, whatever.
Poverty and gang violence has existed in Central America for decades. We have the problem with the law today because of the way Obama is implementing it. As long as Obama will release people within this country it acts as a magnet. Keep them in detention at least to their hearings and have tough administrative judges, then you have no problem. Obama created this problem on purpose and now that it is politically inconvenient his allies in the MSM are looking for ways to divert the blame.
“getting your news from Breitbart”
The first post of this thread specifically identifies the cited article as a Drudge link. The political “platform” of the Drudge Report supports Christian Zionism, denies global warming (that’s Dannyboy’s shtick), and reports on illegal immigration without the filter of political correctness that the “real journalists” of the liberal mainstream media use.
My interest is in the latter. And it directly relates to housing, because I don’t want to live in a Guatemalan peasant village inside of the soon-to-be-former first world country that I was born in.
“And it directly relates to housing, because I don’t want to live in a Guatemalan peasant village inside of the soon-to-be-former first world country that I was born in.”
———–
Too late, man. Majority of kids in this country are nonwhite, because a ridiculous % of people our age are non-natives who came themselves or were born after their parents came illegally.
The groundwork for this was done 30-40 yrs ago. Boomers got their cheap labor, the US as a nation got “got”, just like some naive corner boy in The Wire.
One of main purposes of Fox, Rush, Drudge, Breitbart and hundreds of other websites is to make people angry, especially angry at Obama. If they were honest, they would probably say that they’re not looking forward to the day when he returns to private life. What you have to keep in mind is that they’re very good at making people angry. You may find yourself enjoying the anger so much that you don’t realize that you’re being misinformed.
If it comforts you, limit your media exposure to the Washington Post and the New York Times (which I regularly post links to) and to NPR (which I listen to regularly).
I’m more “angry” at their unending collusion of lies to cover up the ineptitude of this administration (that I regrettably voted for in 2008), which will be over in 2-1/2 years.
http://www.infowars.com/feinstein-youre-not-a-real-journalist-unless-you-draw-a-salary/
Mindless drivel. We are looking forward to the village idiot being out of office. We do worry that a more competent person will succeed in imposing more of the globalist’ s agenda but at this point we just want him out.
I was talking Fox and Rush and Drudge, Dan. There could be a big hit to their businesses if a Republican moves into the White House.
Rush seemed to do fine when Bush was in office. You don’t really seem to have a lot of well thought out ideas in the past couple days… maybe you should get some rest.
That’s your opinion. If people like Bill thought that my arguments were not well thought out, they could have addressed those arguments instead of calling me a frickin retard.
Regarding Rush, I specifically wrote that “There could be…” I didn’t claim any certainty. Do you actually know what Limbaugh’s ratings were during the Bush and Obama administrations?
1) Taxation is theft.
2) If you work in the public sector and agree with #1, but your skills are such that there is only one monopoly (government) that can employ you, as long as you do not initiate force, the threat of force, or fraud against anyone, or use an agent to do so, you are NOT inconsistent.
References (who wrote essays) about why it is not hypocrisy to work in the public sector and be a libertarian:
Murray Rothbard,
Walter Block.
I do not need to explain - the two above did it.
It is not inconsistent to be in favor of defense of a region by an army and be an anarchist at the same time. Ignorant people who never studied libertarianism assume that anyone who is in favor of any military must also be a statist.
That idiot MM does not know what he is talking about, period. His assumptions are based on his own ignorance.
You still didn’t address my points. Instead, once again, you’re referencing your prophets.
Let’s make it as simple as possible. According to you, when the revenue that the government took from me belongs to me, not the government. When the government paid that money to you, it still must have belonged to me. Therefore, you were in possession of something that didn’t belong you, which is wrong.
If it comforts you, limit your media exposure to the Washington Post and the New York Times (which I regularly post links to) and to NPR (which I listen to regularly).
There’s no need to limit oneself so much these days with so much news online. I read that Breitbart thing which accused the NPR guy of bias. Then I read the NPR interview. It really doesn’t appear that the NPR guy was biased or unfair. The Border Patrol commissioner was given plenty of time to explain his position. I don’t know if the Breitbart guy wants interviewers to go easy on government officials. Besides this commissioner is a Democrat appointed by Obama.
Mumbo jumbo from you MM. You just don’t make sense. EOD.
Yes Rubio is what I meant.
Bringing out the National Guard is a good move, except for the fact that they’ll move them in through NM, AZ + CA.
And I’d be happy with any of these.
Cruz/Paul/Rubio/Romney
Background information about Congressman Luis Gutierrez:
http://www.discoverthenetworks.org/individualProfile.asp?indid=1265
When your neighborhood turns into a third-world sh*thole, when your kids get to go to high school with 20 year old freshman MS-13 gang members, when your local hospitals go bankrupt and close their doors due to the crushing costs of providing health care to these criminal alien invaders, many of whom are infected with diseases not common since the 19th century, and when your taxes keep going up and up and up to pay for all of it, be sure to send him a thank you card.
Luis is a bitter little piece of dodo.
Right, and under that little turd Rubio, Florida will continue to be flooded with Cubans who get a free pass. In addition, Cubans can start collecting Social Security after being here just one year.
Mexicans are felons, while Cubans are freedom fighters.
I heard a pundit the other day on Rino radio here in Chicago ILLANNOY ask the simple question - who is funding the coyotes to begin with - Lord knows that Maria in El Salvador who lives in squalor hasn’t the scratch to get little Jose on the train for heaven’s sake. I really am beginning to wonder where the origins of this ‘crisis’ / invasion is / are. I would not put this past Soros and his ilk.
Not that I would put anything past Soros, most likely it is relatives living in the U.S. Another thing we could do but won’t is have a clear law and prosecute relatives that pay to have people brought into this country illegally. I guess we will wait until some relatives bring in a terrorist and then if the PTB cannot cover it up, we might address the problem. But it is another example of chain migration. The more people we allow in the more people that will come until we are as poor as their countries.
Are realtors in New York City better liars than all the other realtors?
Revealed: Here’s What’s In The Secret Training Manual For New York Real Estate Agents
http://www.businessinsider.com/handbook-nyc-agents-2014-7
Bubonic plague in China:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/uh-oh-theres-bubonic-plague-in-china/
…and the rats are leaving the country.
Lol.
Tucson’s NPR affiliate is reporting that local home sales are down 7% vs. last year. Sorry, no link — yet.
{Said in my best RAL-like voice}
Prices down 7% or volume down 7%?
Watch out, craters ahead either way…
In today’s news… Joe goes 3-for-3 against the Tax Man.
I appealed state property tax assessments on 3 properties back in January (the only 3 that had higher estimates). In one case, they conceded entirely, in the other two they split the difference.
It’s kind of troubling how it took 6 months for them to rule on the appeals, though. The results actually came out after property taxes are paid so now I have to get refund checks (MD property taxes are paid in July).
Honestly Joe, it is hardly complex litigation most lay people can do it.
I’m sort of giddy because I won the appeals even though I shouldn’t have won. All these houses are nicer than their respective blocks/neighborhood avg, but now they’re all assessed lower. In some cases, they’re assessed the same as neglected shitshacks.
You and I know it’s not complex, yet it’s not that easy to win against the tax assessors who are indifferent at best and antagonistic at worst. And if you lose at the first appeal level, the subsequent levels of appeal would be deadly for me bc I’ve pulled zero permits to do upgrades, ever. I couldn’t appeal bc they’d see things like central AC, new bathrooms, yada yada.
The other thing is — on my personal house, the assessment worksheet they produdced has a couple mistakes that the city has been too lazy to figure out in the _six decades_ since my depreciating debt shack (TM) was built.
Hey Lib.
Malaysian airliner shootdown…
Some people (like Zero Hedge) are making a big deal about the airliner being 200 miles “off course”. They appear to be using Flightaware, which gives a “predicted position” for an aircraft, if they do not have direct ATC data feeds, or no information. (Like on transatlantic flights)
The Flight data recorder and/or the aircraft’s ADS-B output data (assuming it hasn’t been damaged/tampered with) will tell the tale as to the aircraft’s actual position. The only way that this could be “faked” would be for the flight crew to enter a wildly inaccurate “initialization/current position” in the Flight Management System prior to takeoff. This will be evident on the FDR data, and obvious to the flight crew immediately after takeoff
Odds are that the FDR won’t have any data after the missile impact, due to loss of power. Also a good chance the CVR will end with a crew member saying “WTF?”, followed by a loss of power, and/or loss of signal from the comm radios, and the cockpit “area microphones”.
There are reasons why the NTSB and the EU/British equivalents, are brought in on almost every airliner crash investigation. By design, they have been set up to be independent, and immune to political pressure to report the “right” evidence.
China and Iran thank Obama:
http://en.chinamining.com.cn/News/2014-07-22/1405991198d68712.html
China’s crude imports from Iran in the first half of the year were up nearly 50 percent, although shipments in June dropped nearly a third from May to the lowest level in four months.
China, Tehran’s largest oil client, began stepping up purchases from the OPEC member after a preliminary nuclear deal in November of last year eased some sanctions on Iran. China has been making up the main portion of Asia’s higher Iranian oil imports since then.
Iran and six world powers have failed to negotiate a final resolution to a decade-old standoff over Tehran’s atomic activities, but talks have been extended for another four months past the July 20 deadline.
Mostly owing to China’s increases since the interim deal was agreed, Asian buyers are expected to import about 1.25 million to 1.3 million barrels per day (bpd) of Iranian oil in the first half of the year, industry and government sources have said.
China’s June imports from Iran came in at 2.18 million tonnes, or 531,200 bpd, up 38 percent from a year ago and down 30 percent from May, customs data showed on Monday.
Imports from Iran for the first half of the year were 627,742 bpd, up 48 percent from 424,183 bpd over the same six months of last year, the data showed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-the-economy-is-worse-than-you-think-185727383.html
All link and no blurb, Dannyboy.
Some of us like to *read* the blog and not play clicky doodle doo.
From a jobs point of view, Kumar notes that while 288,000 jobs were created in June, they were mostly part-time jobs. Full-time jobs actually declined. Couple that with nominal wages rising by only about 2% over the past year (which Kumar notes is less than the corresponding consumer price inflation), and consumer spending is likely to remain weak. With consumer spending accounting for a massive two-thirds of U.S. GDP, the question becomes where will the growth come from.
A possible silver lining, at least when it comes to investors, is that the Fed will likely have to be more accommodative from what Yellen’s recent testimony would have you believe. While Yellen did mention rates could move higher in the near future, Kumar believes circumstances are such, given the data mentioned above, that the Fed will not be able to tighten monetary policy.
Further Fed accommodation does come with a price, however. “There has been a shift of income from the workers to stock investors. If that’s what you call success, Janet Yellen has provided it,” Kumar concludes.
“For the 49th time in 50 months, more jobseekers gave up looking than found work.”
BIDEN: ‘BUSINESSES ARE HIRING AT HISTORIC RATES’
by WYNTON HALL 23 Jul 2014, 4:47 AM PDT
On Tuesday, Vice President Joe Biden declared that America’s jobs picture is brighter than ever.
“Businesses are hiring at historic rates, with 52 consecutive months of net private sector job growth,” said Biden in the newly released report supporting the reauthorization of the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act of 1998, which President Obama signed on Tuesday.
The Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act reauthorization will use a $1.4 billion “job-driven checklist” tool to “ensure that the $17 billion in federal training funds are used more effectively,” said a senior White House official. The program will also feature a $25 million Department of Labor award to develop a web-based “skills academy” for adult learners.
Obama and Biden’s efforts to cast a positive light on America’s jobs outlook, however, may face headwinds with voters. As the New York Times noted, “In fact, part-time jobs accounted for two-thirds of all new jobs in June.” What’s more, economist Ben Casselman of Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight states, “For the 49th time in 50 months, more jobseekers gave up looking than found work.”
Obama and Biden’s upbeat economic outlook stands in contrast to the views of voters. According to Gallup, 56% of Americans believe the economy is getting worse, versus just 39% who say it is improving.
Obama departed from the signing of the jobs-training reauthorization for a Democratic fundraising trip in California. The price to attend the reception and take a picture with Obama is $10,000, and it cost $32,400 to be a co-host of the event.
http://www.breitbart.com/…/2014/07/22/Biden-Businesses-are-Hiring-at-Historic-Rates - 56k -
“part-time jobs accounted for two-thirds of all new jobs in June”
What those new hires need are $500,000 starter homes!
All link and no blurb makes Jack a dull boy
All link and no blurb makes blog a dull blog.
And it’s disrespectful to the HBB readership, don’t be a lazy blog poster, Dannyboy.
JULY 21, 2014 4:43 PM
Obama Gives ICE the Cold Shoulder
Sources say immigration agents believe the federal government is deliberately not giving them work.
By Ryan Lovelace
President Obama is encouraging Immigration and Customs Enforcement officers to slack off on the job, former border cops tell National Review Online.
Some ICE officials think the Obama administration has intentionally neglected to give them orders to support efforts to resolve the crisis on America’s southwestern border, says Ronald Colburn, former national deputy chief of the U.S. Border Patrol. As a result, the wave of unaccompanied children from Central America is unfolding while ICE officials cool their heels.
“They’re sitting still at their desks — reading newspapers, playing video games on their government computers — because they’re not being tasked with work, and they feel like it’s coming all the way down from the top,” Colburn tells NRO. “These are guys that do want to go out more, but basically they’re not.” Colburn says some ICE agents go work out at the gym for four hours each day because they have little work to do. Meanwhile, he says, the Obama administration continues to “strangle” Border Patrol agents who must process and handle the latest flood of Central Americans rather than stand guard at the border.
Border Patrol agents are often referred to as “catchers” because they are tasked with apprehending and processing illegal aliens crossing the border. ICE Enforcement and Removal Operations officers are dubbed “removers” because of their added responsibility of deporting illegal aliens.
Dave Stoddard, executive vice president of the Law Enforcement Officers Advocates Council and a retired Border Patrol agent with several decades of experience on America’s borders, tells National Review Online that ICE agents have voiced their complaints with him about how little work they have to do. “These ICE officers are sitting, in some cases, in brand new offices, brand-new furniture and the telephone that never rings, and brand-new cars with no place to go,” Stoddard says. “They’re on the payroll and they need to entertain themselves or occupy themselves some way or other.” Stoddard says some officers review law books while others choose to hone their skills at the shooting range because of the light workload.
An ICE spokesperson declined to comment to NRO about this story.
Stoddard says every ICE agent, Border Patrol official, investigator, and law-enforcement officer he knows within the Department of Homeland Security feels “terrified” of speaking out and committing a violation of policy. He says his experiences have led him to believe that speaking out against the wishes of DHS officials often carries more immediate consequences from management than if an agent is suspected of committing a criminal act.
Some U.S. Customs and Border Protection officers include helpful reminders about such violations of policy in their written communications. One CBP e-mail obtained by NRO includes the command “Anyone who steals, knowingly converts to his use or the use of another, or without authority, sells, conveys or disposes of any record or thing of value to U.S. Customs and Border Protection shall be fined or imprisoned not more [than] ten (10) years pursuant to 18 USCS § 641.” After speaking out publicly about public-health risks associated with the illegal immigrants transported to the San Diego Sector, Border Patrol agent Ron Zermeno received a letter, obtained by NRO, saying “you must immediately cease and desist” from issuing statements and press releases to the media with information that is “Law Enforcement sensitive.” Now ICE officials, Border Patrol agents, and others in the federal government have begun to confide in their former colleagues.
Colburn says the agents who have approached him are frustrated and note that the bottleneck of Central Americans crossing into the U.S. has been made worse by the federal government. “According to my sources, it appears that this administration is causing that [bottleneck] on purpose,” Colburn says. “So they [the Obama administration] may be saying they’re trying to resolve it, but they’re doing something different. They need to put their actions where their mouths are.”
http://www.nationalreview.com/…/383279/obama-gives-ice-cold-shoulder-ryan-lovelace - 85k -
Great link, keep ‘em coming plz
BORDER PATROL AGENTS: U.N. TAKING CONTROL OF AMERICA’S SOUTHERN BORDER
Under the pretense of labeling illegals “refugees,” U.N. personnel are working with DHS to ship MS-13 gang members into U.S., says agent
Border Patrol Agents: U.N. Taking Control of America’s Southern Border
by KIT DANIELS | INFOWARS.COM | JULY 23, 2014
Two anonymous Border Patrol agents reportedly told radio host Dave Hodges that under the pretense of labeling illegal aliens “refugees,” the United Nations is “calling the shots” on America’s border operations and the U.N. is deciding which immigrants to ship to various parts of the U.S.
One of the agents said U.N. personnel are already present at various detention facilities in the American Southwest, according to Hodges, and are working with Homeland Security agents in “gathering MS-13 gangsters, captured from different roundups, patch worked together as a group and then shipped together to various locations on the perimeter of the United States.”
“I objected to admitting MS-13 gangsters into the U.S. and I was told that we have our orders to treat them like anyone else,” the other agent told Hodges.
Hodges says that he asked one of the agents how they knew the immigrants were MS-13 and he told him they could tell “by the tattoos.”
“He recounted the fact that MS-13 operatives will have a tattoo with tears on their face which represents a person that they have murdered in the commission of their drug related duties,” Hodges reported. “He said he processed an MS-13 member who had nine tears on his face and he was told to process him as an ‘unaccompanied juvenile refugee.’”
And police officers are already encountering these gang members, such as the La Grulla, Texas, officer who pulled over a vehicle last week carrying an aggressive MS-13 member.
“Once I asked him to lift up his shirt, that’s where I observed he had MS-13 tattooed on his chest and his back,” the officer stated. “Those are really dangerous subjects.”
The U.N., however, has already announced its intent to broadly designate illegal aliens, including MS-13 members from Central America, as “refugees.”
“Representatives of the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, or UNHRC, are ‘intensely discussing in meetings’ the possibility of extending U.N. protection to the thousands of Central Americans crossing the U.S. border with Mexico illegally by defining them as ‘refugees’ who are seeking asylum from political and domestic violence in their home nations,” Jerome Corsi reported on July 14 for World Net Daily.
An informed source also told Infowars the U.N. is already calling illegals “refugees” and pro-amnesty organizations are likewise doing so even though Latin America has experienced extreme violence for the past 10 years and the massive influx of illegals has only occurred in the past few months.
In June, for example, several activists who were guests on NPR described all the illegal immigrant youth entering the U.S. in record numbers as desperate “war refugees” who need the full support of the government.
Of course, that’s obviously not the case if the U.N. is helping to import MS-13 gang members into the U.S., but U.N. representatives will still call them “refugees” if it allows the globalist organization to infringe upon America’s national sovereignty.
Rant on:
I received a replacement PC from HP because my current one has broken hinges which are essentially a design flaw. The new computer is not as good, because HP is now cheaping out on everything they offer, so it has a slower hard drive, inferior graphics card, no Bluetooth, etc. Whatever- I figure I’ll use it until it takes a dump and then never buy anything from the sorry company again.
Anyway, I went out and purchased an easy transfer cable so I could transfer everything from the old PC (Windows 8), to the new PC (Windows 8.1). What a fool I am. Version 8.1 does not support easy transfer cables. WTF? What kind of BS is that? And, in this day and age, why is it so FU*KING hard to transfer files? For christ’s sake is this how far we’ve come? I should be able to scream out “transfer all of my fuc*king files right now you miserable piece of Chinese plastic” and consider it done. With all of this so-called new technology, I still can’t get my pictures off the old computer without wasting hours upon hours of my time. Awful, awful crap.
Typewriter sales boom in Germany as thousands go back to basics in bid to avoid U.S. spies in wake of NSA allegations
By ALLAN HALL
PUBLISHED: 07:39 EST, 22 July 2014
Typewriter sales are booming in Germany as government departments, businesses and people go back-to-the-future to thwart spying by American spooks.
Old tech is trumping the new in the wake of the NSA spying scandals which saw Chancellor Merkel’s phone hacked on numerous occasions by Washington and culminated in the expulsion of the CIA spy chief from Berlin earlier this month.
The head of the parliamentary inquiry into spying by the US National Security Service in Germany said his committee is considering using typewriters. But many have already made the switch.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/…housands-basics-bid-avoid-U-S-spies-wake-NSA-allegations.html -
A five second job on a Mac.
Even though I lost money in the stock market today, I
think my position is substantially improved, so I am happy.
file bankruptcy partner
My entire stock holdings are less than 20,000, and that is money I could easily live without, although I’d cry like a baby if I lost it
all.
You’d know.
ANOTHER DEAD BANKER: GOLDMAN SACHS MANAGING DIRECTOR FOUND DEAD
Police are still investigating the death..
Another Dead Banker: Goldman Sachs Managing Director Found Dead
by ECONOMIC POLICY JOURNAL | JULY 23, 2014
Nicholas Valtz, a managing director in cross-asset sales at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, was found dead yesterday by family members who went searching for him after he didn’t return from a kiteboarding outing, reports Bloomberg.
Valtz, 39, was found in Napeague Harbor near the eastern end of Long Island, according to the East Hampton, New York, police. He was a “novice kiteboarder” and was found floating in the water secured to his kite, police said in a statement released yesterday. Other kite gear was found in a grassy area of the harbor, police said.
His wife, Sashi Valtz, also works at Goldman Sachs as head of global third-party research sales, according to her LinkedIn profile.
Nicholas Andrew Valtz was born in September 1974 and received a bachelor’s degree from Harvard University in 1996, according to New York voting records and Harvard’s website. The school lists him as earning letters in fencing for three years.
Police are still investigating the death, according to the statement.
Parliament w/ George Clinton - Placebo Syndrome:
“When your ups lift you down
Your placebo is too weak
You’re in the syndrome”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eMmMuQcRooI
DJ Danger Mouse mixes Jay Z’s the Black Album over the Beatles’ White Album, this was recorded ten years ago:
http://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLF27428868443F302
De La Soul - Three Feet High And Rising:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pRIqxSbh41I&list=PL3D-B9c8tDtkkWsgzZYi_tbHo3kCFNctR
This album was released in 1989, before record companies started suing people for sampling other records.
Today’s hip-hop is so boring, so stale, so it’s been done already…
There are large numbers of children crossing the border illegally from
Mexico and El Salvador, and they are unaccompanied by any parents. Most of them are older teenagers, but an alarming percentage is under
the age of 12. The Obama administration and many faith-based groups are struggling to find a compassionate way to deal with them.
The violence and despair in Mexico and El Salvador is a underreported story, but how does the United States maintain its sovereignty and cultural integrity when governments to the South that don’t really pay significant attention to grinding poverty and violence.
The housing bubble is only one bubble of many that the world has
gone though in the past ten years. Let’s list the bubbles we’ve seen.
Housing
In various parts of the world all bursting at different times
Banking
Investing
Business Controlled 401 Ks ( often run by corrupt men )
Gold
Silver
Platinum
Iron Ore
Petroleum
Building Supplies
Fine Art
Education
Medicine
A variety of home goods
Where do I stop? There are several bubbles still popping among what I’ve listed. You’ve just got to be smart enough to see it and respond accordingly.
In the early 80s, either 1981 or 1982 I listened to a lecture on how an anarchist society would provide defense, by the same man in the video. He was much younger then. I think he was a tank platoon leader in the US army in the 1970s: Jeffrey Rogers Hummel.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vyDFUx6qEBY
http://www.independent.org/aboutus/person_detail.asp?id=565
Retardo MM: Got that?
My projection is that the long term breakout price for gold is $1400…in two years: July 2016. Currently it has to broach $1600 per ounce (go up 23%) in order to have a technical sign of a gold boom. In two years the PoG would have to go up slightly over 7% in order to start the technical sign of a gold boom.
In either case, it’s a great idea to back up the truck and load up on both cash and gold.
All I know is there seems to be price suppression right now to add
seeming stability to our lovely fiat system