Bits Bucket for August 13, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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China Home Sales;
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=3&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CC0QFjAC&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2F2014-08-13%2Fchina-s-july-home-sales-fall-28-as-easing-yet-to-boost-demand.html&ei=Q17rU-DsO-LtiwLc3YD4DA&usg=AFQjCNFqIsZHOr4akQqXOhRo88RVxufgmQ&sig2=Gfs0-lPrljrqUakjU6At4Q&bvm=bv.72938740,d.cGE
Washington Post editorial - Put the brakes on the auto-lending bubble before it bursts
“Increasing evidence suggests that the Federal Reserve’s ultra-low interest rate policy is goosing car sales, both new and used, beyond the level that economic fundamentals can sustain. The signs include the proliferation of long-term, low-interest loans for borrowers with high credit scores and increased subprime lending for credit-challenged consumers.
It’s a dynamic reminiscent of the subprime mortgage bubble that helped cause the Great Recession — and, in that sense, precisely what Wall Street and Washington had promised to avoid in the future.”
Credit-challenged consumers? No challenge too great that Mr. Banker can’t overcome
This summer I’ve notice more newish four-door pickup trucks pulling a fancy ski boat with the trailer sporting matching shiny rims. Someone has gone golfing and left the credit spigot wide open.
I’ve noticed a ton of shiny RV coaches pulling new cars. It doesn’t rival the RV coach I saw in 2006 pulling a custom match paint Hummer. That one was the pinnacle.
2014 - 2016 last chance to unload that crapshack at unsustainable prices. We are approaching the sweet spot for getting a great deal on a 2 - 3 year old car. Oh, baby.
Puggsy, tell me pls how that’s going to work. I’ll be in the market myself - current wheels have 190K miles on ‘em and they’re not making them anymore. I happen to love my car - Honda Element. You can fold the front and rear passenger seats down to make a completely flat single bed for those loooonng road trips where it was just too dicey to drive all the way home, and too wasteful to pay $100 to sleep for a couple of hours in a motel. That there has been a real good feature. Honda stopped making them in 2011. In a pinch you could really live in that car.
Any other car have that capability?
I want that capability, at a rock bottom price.
Thanks for any advice.
TRUECar.com
Never Overpay.
Who needs an economy that builds stuff when you’ve got Candy Crush and World of Warcraft?
Wall Street Journal article excerpts:
“King Digital Entertainment PLC’s stock-market debut in March was among the worst in the U.S. this year, dropping 16% in its first day of trading as investors worried that the maker of the “Candy Crush Saga” mobile game was a one-hit wonder.
On Tuesday the Anglo-Swedish company gave them more to worry about.
King reported that bookings from “Candy Crush Saga” declined more than expected, prompting the company to issue a downbeat forecast for the current quarter and full year.”
And this about the Millennial generation, America’s future leaders:
“A handful of job seekers are listing achievements in videogames such as the role-playing platform “World of Warcraft” on their resumes or LinkedIn profiles, betting that virtual-world accomplishments will impress hiring managers in real life.”
What those World of Warcraft warriors need are $500,000 starter homes!
Who needs an economy that builds stuff when you’ve got Candy ??
Well, there are lots of different kinds of Candy…Seems like Italy has it figured out;
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=2&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCYQFjAB&url=http%3A%2F%2Fjezebel.com%2Fitaly-will-include-prostitution-and-cocaine-sales-in-it-1589686727&ei=MGTrU92VHOaxiwKj5IGgBA&usg=AFQjCNGFb_xBxdb5AE2i1AiMWBrXFazetw&sig2=U057OcivxEtYmIT1NWK-rg&bvm=bv.72938740,d.cGE
Eagle Scout used to be (and I think still is) a common resumé item. Gaming is certainly as time intensive, but I’m not sure if it’s as work intensive. As for impress hiring managers, sounds like a double-edged sword.
“A handful of job seekers are listing achievements in videogames such as the role-playing platform “World of Warcraft” on their resumes or LinkedIn profiles, betting that virtual-world accomplishments will impress hiring managers in real life.”
Gary Larson envisioned this some time ago:
http://oi25.tinypic.com/4g5gty.jpg
‘…achievements in videogames such as the role-playing platform “World of Warcraft” on their resumes or LinkedIn profiles…’
Fantasy credentials…
Beyond awesome…
Soured real estate investments could cost you your life.
Real Estate losses don’t seem to bother Nicholas Cage.
Speaking of, he’s all over the place, funny.
Nicholas Cage has his eye on you
Nicolas Cage: One-Man Real Estate Bubble
LOLZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
[RIMSHOT!]
So much for the failed theory that real estate prices always go up in The OC…
($995,000/$1,900,000-1) X 100% = -47%…and the actual haircut is worse, as he couldn’t sell it at 47% below where he bought in 2006.
How are China’s home sales looking these days?
(P.S. I don’t give a rat’s arse about their official GDP growth rate!)
Forbes Asia 8/11/2014 @ 11:01AM
Li Ka-shing, Wang Jianlin And China’s Falling Home Prices
Two of the men who have made the most money playing China’s real estate market over the last two decades hedged their bets in recent days, as Li Ka-shing and Wang Jianlin diversified their investments away from the country’s property sector.
…
The End of a Bull Run
Although recent data does not support the notion of China’s real estate market being a bubble waiting to pop, it appears that many of the most experienced investors in the sector are now betting that equal or even better returns may be available elsewhere.
According to private surveys conducted at the end of July, despite recent moves by the Chinese government to prop up the property sector, the nation’s real estate market saw price cuts accelerating last month.
A survey of real estate deals in 288 cities across China conducted by the China Index Academy (a unit of real estate agency E-House) saw average home prices fell 0.13 percent last month compared to June to RMB 10,835 ($1753) per square metre. The fall came at a faster pace than the 0.06 percent average decline that the June edition of the survey had revealed, and marked the fourth straight month of falling average prices.
…
Although recent data does not support the notion of China’s real estate market being a bubble waiting to pop, it appears that many of the most experienced investors in the sector are now betting that equal or even better returns may be available elsewhere.
Does that statement not sound a lot like “permanently high plateau”? It does to my ear.
If investment funds begin to flow elsewhere to “even better returns”, what exactly is going to keep the property prices so elevated? And without the draw of outsized returns, is the average family really going to stretch to buy 2 or 3 housing units?
Ridiculous.
Beyond ridiculous…patently insane.
I guess that explains why economic historians refer to such episodes as “manias.”
China’s July Home Sales Fall 28% as Easing Yet to Boost Demand
By Bloomberg News Aug 12, 2014 11:22 PM PT
China’s home sales fell 28 percent in July, the biggest monthly decline this year, as tight mortgage lending outweighed efforts by local governments to ease property curbs as prices and demand weakened.
The value of homes sold fell to 424.2 billion yuan ($69 billion) last month from 591.2 billion yuan in June, according to the difference between the National Statistics Bureau’s data for the first seven months and the first half of the year. The value of sales in the first seven months fell 10.5 percent to 2.99 trillion yuan from a year earlier, the data showed.
“Today’s data will hurt sentiment as the property market has no fundamental recovery yet as investors imagined,” Edison Bian, a Hong Kong-based property analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd., said in a phone interview today. “Developers are still very cautious even as local governments are easing policies. Mortgages should ease further, so that reluctant developers will supply more homes.”
…
Homes for half the world’s population is not enough.
China Appears Ready to Dump Its U.S. Treasury Bonds
Although investors hang on every comment by Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen to get insight on the direction of interest rates and what it means for the economy and asset prices, the real power to determine U.S. interest rates may be in the hands of China, according to Lombard Street Research. Facing an overvalued currency that is hurting corporate profits and slowing growth, China appears ready to dump its $1.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds to drive U.S. interest rates up and strengthen the dollar.
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/08/12/China-Appears-Ready-to-Dump-its-U-S-Treasury-Bonds
This doesn’t sound good.
I guess that signals the end of the Chinese pivot to a service economy with their own middle class. Back to the cheap currency/cheap labor export model, that doesn’t work in a world with weakening demand.
“appears ready” does not signal anything.
I agree. You could say the same about their pivot to an internal demand service economy.
“China Appears Ready to Dump Its U.S. Treasury Bonds”
Asian buyers have allegedly been ready to dump their U.S. Treasury Bonds since at least 1988. That was 26 years ago.
Is it different now?
GREAT DEPRESSION OF 1990 Mass Market Paperback – May 1, 1988
by Ravi Batra (Author)
Hardcover from $0.01
227 Used from $0.01
“China appears ready to dump its $1.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds to drive U.S. interest rates up and strengthen the dollar.”
Dumping bonds would weaken the dollar; perhaps it never occurred to you that a Treasury bond is nothing more nor less than a promised fixed series of future payments in dollars? So selling bonds drives the dollar down.
The reason China loves to buy our bonds is that it drives the dollar up, which primes the pump for U.S. consumers to purchase cheap, poisonous crap exported from China.
Fixer, short article for you (very off topic):
http://well.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/08/11/statins-dont-require-routine-liver-tests/
Statins Don’t Require Routine Liver Tests
By NICHOLAS BAKALAR
August 11, 2014 12:35 pmAugust 12, 2014 1:53 pm
When statins first came into wide use, warnings about possible liver damage were common, and some patients on the cholesterol-lowering drugs have their liver function monitored. Now a study has found that the risk was probably exaggerated.
Of 1,188 cases of drug-induced liver injury from 2004 to 2012 in a registry maintained by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases, there were 22 cases with injury because of statins. Nine patients were hospitalized, four had evidence of liver failure, and one died. The study appears in the August issue of Hepatology.
Lipitor, Lescol, Mevacor, Pravachol, Crestor and Zocor were the medicines involved, at rates approximating their use in the United States. The injuries were mostly mild to moderate in their severity, and were reversed quickly once the treatment was stopped. The patient who died had alcoholic liver disease, which probably contributed to his death.
“Statins are a remarkably safe category of medicines, and the benefits far outweigh the risks,” said the lead author, Dr. Mark W. Russo, a professor of medicine at Carolinas Medical Center in Charlotte, N.C.. He added that although a routine blood test would usually include liver tests anyway, there is no need for people on statins to have a test for the sole purpose of monitoring liver function.
Consider alternatives before getting hooked on drugs. Y’know, like diet and exercise.
To be honest, Fixer needs to go Paleo. The traditional diet-and-exercise wisdom does not work consistently or long term. In fact this wisdom is not even traditional. “Pasta makes you fat” was the norm until about 1980.
Statins caused muscle weakness in my relatives. Not something you want when you’re climbing around aircraft.
Worst Ebola outbreak ever. A new Islamic state in Iraq. War in the Ukraine. Drought in the western US. Riots in midwest.
We’ve pretty much got the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse running rampant…
Sure, and the fundie Christian sects are beside themselves with joy. Morons.
What makes you think that? Christians enjoying this? Names and links please.
I’m talking about the over the top fundie Christians, the ones who are looking for rapture. Those are the morons. Other than that, I have a general liking for Christians.
Rio’s info below is exactly what I am referring to. Anecdotally, I’ve met an insane fundie or two around here who is all a-twitter about “signs and wonders” and think the Kingdom of Heaven is at hand.
In their own way, they’re almost as bad as fundie Islamists. Although they don’t behead anybody.
Palmetto,
I’m not sure why you think this. All of the Christians I know are terrified about the way things are going.
All of the Christians I know are terrified about the way things are going.
I’m sure most are, but there is a large number of fundamental Christians who are not terrified at all. I hope this piece is a bit over the top but it gets a point across.
Millions of Evangelical Christians Want to Start World War III … to Speed Up the Second Coming
http://www.washingtonsblog.com/2012/02/evangelical-christians-want-to-start-wwiii-to-speed-the-second-coming-and-atheist-neocons-are-using-religion-to-rile-them-up-to-justify-war-against-iran.html
The Founding Fathers weren’t particularly anti-Islam.
But millions of Americans believe that Christ will not come again until Israel wipes out its competitors and there is widespread war in the Middle East. Some of these folks want to start a huge fire of war and death and destruction, so that Jesus comes quickly.
Bill Moyers reports that the organization Christians United for Israel – led by highly-influential Pastor John C. Hagee – is a universal call to all Christians to help factions in Israel fund the Jewish settlements, throw out all the Palestinians and lobby for a pre-emptive invasion of Iran. All to bring Russia into a war against us causing World War III followed by Armageddon, the Second Coming and The Rapture. See this and this.
This all revolves around what is called Dispensationalism. So popular is Dispensationalism that Tim LaHaye’s Left Behind series has sold 65 million copies.
Rio & Palmetto,
I owe you both an apology. There are Christian nuts and thinking that they can hasten His return is foolishness. I don’t totally disagree with them, but I don’t think we can effect what He has in store for us.
Rio, sorry I was mad with you yesterday. It’s time for me to take a vacation.
BH
sorry I was mad with you yesterday
No worries. Thank you. Sorry if I was ever too brusque.
Wow…the HBB has reverted to courtesy after AHOLE_Dan left our company.
Candy Crush is so last month, dude. The Kim Kardashian app is where it’s at.
“The Kim Kardashian app is where it’s at.”
Is it phat?
http://www.picpaste.com/pics/1396962577_kim-kardashian-zoom-dWwKC40w.1407959908.jpg
white men dont go for that….
Big-bottom woman…
Too phat!!!
Why switch horses mid-Apocalypse?
Yawn…way more people die in the U.S. every winter of influenza. For instance, over 50,000 Americans died of influenza and pneumonia in 2010.
Where is the hysterical media coverage?
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-08-11 22:52:42
So….it will be different this time? Where have I heard that before? Oh I remember….on this blog, where you were making fun of people who said….” It will be different this time.”
So, Jingle: do you actually disagree that the employment picture is quite different for 20-25yo kids today, than it has at any time in recent history?
Do you think that their slow start into the employment world will not alter their ability to improve their earnings significantly in their 25-29yo timeframe?
The data from much smaller recessions, with much less employment impact, supports my statement that there is long-term damage to earning power by entering the workforce during a downturn. And as this downturn is unprecedented, I think the long-term impact on those entering the workforce during this one will be similarly unprecedented.
Prime:
I think you left out the fact most 20-25 year olds are really stupid compared to past generations. They seem to lack any thinking out of the box or critical thinking skills.
And that i think has more impact on their future earnings because it means all the jobs they can get are corporate slug jobs…do as you’re told.
And it seems all the critical thinkers are from overseas.
Yesterday:
capital investment is needed to create the new products and services that people would like to buy.
Obviously. And the world is awash in capital - just in too few hands to create enough demand for the few hands to invest their huge pile of capital.
Rather than throw out phrases like “supply side” that really never come up in the everyday life of an investment professional…..
The effects of 34 years of SupplySide’s redistributing wealth to the rich is a big factor in the everyday life of an investment professional because of the lack of demand it has created.
how about you defend Dodd Frank?
Remember the financial crisis of 2008? A Dodd Frank goal is for that not happening again. And financial people complain about any regulation but Dodd Frank has benefits for society and even to financial companies if they’re smart enough get with the program.
Financial Institutions Are Seeing Some of the Benefits of Dodd-Frank
…. A Stronger Competitive Position
While companies acknowledged the costs of complying with Dodd-Frank, they are also now beginning to see potential benefits from the new law. Nearly two-thirds (64%) of respondents believe the Act will strengthen their competitive position and a strong majority believe Dodd-Frank will lead to greater profitability over the lifetime of the program. Capital markets firms are particularly optimistic, with 44% of respondents saying that Dodd-Frank will “significantly strengthen” their competitive position.
…..Dodd-Frank does present significant challenges to financial institutions, but it also offers potential benefits in terms of increased profitability, a stronger competitive position and better risk management. Firms that have not established a comprehensive program for dealing with Dodd-Frank may wish to review the current state of play and accelerate efforts to achieve both regulatory compliance and broader strategic goals.
http://businessfinancemag.com/corporate-finance/financial-institutions-are-seeing-some-benefits-dodd-frank?page=1
Dodd Frank has benefits for society and even to financial companies if they’re smart enough get with the program.
The reason that it gives them a “stronger competitive position” is because the cost of compliance makes it impossible for smaller companies to enter their markets; at smaller scale, the costs are unable to be absorbed. In other words, it is a regulatory “moat”, in Buffett’s terminology.
How could the reduction of competition in this market possibly be a societal good??
a societal good??
There are arguments that Dodd Frank went too far and arguments that it did not go far enough. IMO, they should have broken up the big banks or mostly re-instated the Glass-Steagal Act. Here’s a societal good of Dodd Frank:
The Volcker Rule: Assessing Dodd-Frank 4 Years Later
http://www.equities.com/editors-desk/investing-strategies/ipo/the-volcker-rule-assessing-dodd-frank-4-years-later
…..What got commercial banks into trouble during the Great Recession was the holding of mortgage-backed securities. Had the GSA still been in place, commercial banks technically still would have been able to have mortgages on their balance sheets. After all, one of the primary functions of a commercial bank is loaning money to people for buying homes.
However, commercial banks, prior to the partial repeal of the GSA, traditionally didn’t securitize these mortgages, tranche them into different classes based on risk premium, and auction them off to other financial institutions. The fact that commercial banks were legally allowed to do this gave rise to a boom in the trading of mortgage-backed securities.
Had Glass-Steagall still been in place, the volume of trading with mortgage-backed securities, one of the primary catalysts of the Great Recession, would have been lower. Then, when the housing bubble burst, financial institutions would have been better protected from the losses because they wouldn’t have been holding so much securitized debt in the form of mortgage-backed securities.
…. The Volcker Rule
Named after the towering former Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the Volcker Rule is the part of the Dodd-Frank Act that aims to bring back elements of the Glass-Steagall Act by eliminating proprietary trading from commercial banks. Eliminating proprietary trading means banks can no longer use depositors’ funds to trade securities, derivatives, commodities futures, or options because these trading activities do not benefit the banks’ customers.
The Volcker Rule though does not prohibit commercial banks from underwriting, market making, trading of government securities, and acting as brokers, agents, or custodians. So there is no reinstitution of the strict division between commercial and investment banks, but there is a limit to what kind of securities they can trade (i.e. they can no longer trade mortgage-backed securities). All banks have to comply with this rule by July 21, 2015, meaning that they must shed all high-risk assets that don’t comply with the new rules from their balance sheets.
……The Volcker Rule will help reign in some of the excessive risk undertaken by commercial banks, but it doesn’t go far enough. Reinstating the Glass-Steagall Act would have been the best course of action, but the problem is that it cuts into the profitability of the banking sector and the banks won’t take too kindly to that.
How could the reduction of competition in this market possibly be a societal good??
If what you’re saying is actually true, in regards to a new housing bubble, maybe in this way?
Democrats Grasp Dodd-Frank Overreach
http://www.moneynews.com/BerlauMN/Dodd-Frank-Wall-Street-Volcker-Rule-Banks/2014/01/17/id/547768/
….Speaking on behalf of the National Association of Federal Credit Unions, Weickenand explained that under the new (Dodd Frank) mortgage regulations, “a number of mortgage products sought by credit union members, and offered by credit unions, may disappear from the market.” He called for “Congressional action [that] would help open the spigot of mortgage lending that has been now shut off for a number of Americans,” and pointed to some bipartisan bills that would grant such regulatory relief.
It’s”materials costs!”… Then it’s “labor”(lol).. Then “lot cost” was wheeled out… Then septic tanks(big lol), then wells..
lolololololz
Awww, living in your head rent free now, huh? You got pwned, Exeter, and now you’re pretty much a troll. You know, you used to be one of my favorite commenters, but you’ve jumped the shark. You never answered any of my questions, resorting instead to obfuscation and mockery.
Not wells… not septic.. not materials.. not lots. You’re just enraged.
And your questions were answered. You just didn’t like the answer.
You haven’t answered any questions, for me or anyone else. Your whole schtick is to lie and say you did, but you don’t. You still haven’t produced the $55 psf in Seattle. Get to crackin’, boy!
You’re out of excuses. You’ve got nothing left to wheel out.
I’m waiting, like everyone, for you to prove your PPSF number. You know- the lie you’ve been telling for years now.
It’s been covered here many times. You just don’t like the reality of it.
Region VIII checking in.
Region IV checked in and wearing appropriate color coded tag for today’s drill.
SESSIONS WARNS OF ‘CHILLING’ OBAMA IMMIGRATION PLOTTING
“Recent developments suggest the president’s planned executive amnesty could be increasingly imminent”
by NATIONAL REVIEW | AUGUST 13, 2014
Senator Jeff Sessions (R., Ala.) called for Americans to pressure their senators about voting against President Obama’s expected executive orders on immigration, which he described as a “chilling” plot with activists to undermine national laws.
“Recent developments suggest the president’s planned executive amnesty could be increasingly imminent and broad in scope. House Democrat Leader Pelosi — clearly one of the White House’s closest allies — has just urged the president to issue ‘the broadest possible’ executive actions,” Sessions said in a statement on Wednesday.
“Open-borders groups have grown bolder and louder in their unlawful demands, launching a campaign for the president to ‘go big,’ and demanding that he ‘stand up’ to Congress and ‘expand DACA,’” he added, citing an Associated Press report that administration officials were meeting with immigration activists and the Chamber of Commerce.
“It is chilling to consider now that these groups, frustrated in their aims by our Constitutional system of government, are plotting with the Obama administration to collect their spoils through executive fiat,” he said.
Read more
DOG ELECTED MAYOR IN MINNESOTA
To be sworn in on Sunday…
by MY FOX NY | AUGUST 13, 2014
A small Minnesota village has a new mayor. Duke, the dog is Cormorant’s newest mayor.
The 12 people who live there elected the 7-year-old dog as its leader.
dogmayor2
Duke may not understand politics too well but he’s been doing a great job guarding the town.
He even makes sure cars aren’t going past the speed limit.
Duke will be sworn in on Sunday.
News stories with dogs are often pretty far out there.
What do you want to bet this woman was a Realtor™?
Kara Vandereyk, Las Vegas Woman, Had Sex With Pit Bull: Police
The Huffington Post | By Hunter Stuart
Posted: 02/21/2013 11:27 am EST | Updated: 02/27/2013 8:04 pm EST
…
Too bad that Pit Bull can’t talk. I’d really like to see that loving odd-couple have an interview with Charlie Rose.
US income gap widest in decades, based on housing market data
Published time: August 13, 2014 17:17
The income gap among metropolitan regions in the United States has reached new heights based on home prices in 2013, according to a new report.
Income disparity between the 10th and 90th most expensive housing markets in the US last year is the largest since such records began in 1969, according to the Financial Times.
An analysis of US Commerce and Labor Department data for the Financial Times by the property website Trulia found that Boston, the 10th most expensive region for housing, had a per-capita income of 1.61 times that of Cincinnati, ranked at 90th. The lowest gap was 1.36 times occurred in 1976, between San Francisco and El Paso.
Inconsistent job recovery across the US since the economic recession that began in 2008 has led to a wide range of regional housing-market rebounds.
“Housing markets are playing out at very different speeds partly as a result of the lack of geographical breadth in the labour market. Certain sectors of the economy are performing better than others, propelling some housing markets over others,” said Fannie Mae economist Mark Palim.
US officials see a resurgent housing market as a symbol for overall economic recovery. But a weak job market has stalled such a comeback.
“The housing sector was at the epicentre of the US financial crisis and recession and it continues to weigh on the recovery,” said Stanley Fischer, the deputy chairman at the Federal Reserve, in a speech this week.
…