Bits Bucket for August 14, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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0 out of 3.Not one of the Eurozone’s 3 largest economies managed to grow in Q2.Spain,the 4th largest,bucked the trend pic.twitter.com/tr582qoDDn
Germany’s negative 2-year tells the whole story of European Union…Combine this with all the “Hot-Spots” in the world and the potential fall-out in China…Should there be any wonder why there is such a flight of money both “Clean & Dirty” into securities & real estate in the USA, Canada & Australia….Even london is now having a real estate “roll-over”…
It is a wonder that as Deflation settles in, people rush to get rid of their money in exchange for overpriced real estate.
Skye, an astute observation - as always. Thank you. I, too, am not surprised that FPSS’s prediction is playing out.
A hat tip to HA - with deflation playing out, I’m glad all I limited my involvement to viewing open houses, scrutinizing eight samples of what was on offer, and laughing in the faces of several real-t-whores.
…From which they are constitutionally unable to walk away because I have cash, credentials, continuity and credit. Sort of like drawing out bedbugs with a carbon dioxide trap and then spraying them with isopropyl alcohol.
(my rental crapshack does not have them but boy am I loaded for bear).
You’re welcome. Like I mentioned in the email, the larger the inventory of defects you develop, the more room you’ve got to fatten up the deducts. Dollars and cents always trumps airy-fairy talk in a meeting.
¨Safety deposit boxes in the sky.¨
¨Demand for exclusive and expensive properties where questionable funds can be given a legitimate coat of paint is so high that dozens of new skyscrapers are being thrown up around the city to meet it.
In many cases, buyers from places such as Russia, China or Argentina, where even the super-wealthy fear the whims of an undemocratic government or uncertain currency, have been snapping up apartments with such hunger that they often don’t bother going for a viewing, making the purchase via a phone call with a specialist broker, let alone live in their new property.
Once bought, the flats sit vacant, accruing value and providing a security blanket for the owner in the event that the political or economic climate gets a little sticky in Moscow or Bogota or Lagos.¨
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/10937349/Wealthy-foreigners-trade-London-homes-for-New-York.html
It still rather stuns me that the foreign investment crowd appears to have no significant “go-time” contingent. When the biofuel hits the windturbine in their own countries, are they really counting on the American federal and local governments to maintain the infrastructure necessary to live in a box of air in dense cities like Manhattan or Miami? They should be buying entire blocks of places like Buffalo or Tennessee where there is cheap housing, rainfall, soil, and hydropower.
They’re just worried about the downfall of their own country or the confiscation of their wealth there. They know if it’s TEOTWAWKI theyŕe not going to make it as a Chinese national living in Appalachia. They’d end up chained to someone’s wood stove, because they’ve got a ¨purty mouth¨.
The story of houses. I empathise my wife’s always trying to add to ours
The house so luxurious it bankrupted its owner: Futuristic Los Angeles mansion Silvertop goes on the market for $7.5 million
Inventor Kenneth Reiner started building the home in the 1950s but was eventually bankrupted after holding back no expense for its gadgets
He had anticipated the home would cost around $75,000 but the total soared to more than $1 million
It was eventually bought by another family who are now selling
The house appeared in 1987 movie Less Than Zero
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2724256/Futuristic-Los-Angeles-mansion-bankrupted-inventor-owner-goes-market-7-5-million.html
That is a rather amazing structure. If I were an oligarch, I’d snap it up and throw it on the pile.
All real estate anxiety is local.
Heard on the Street
Anxiety Is Local in China’s Property Woes
By Esther Fung
Aug. 12, 2014 5:06 a.m. ET
A whiff of desperation lingers over China’s property markets. Investors betting on a quick real-estate recovery would be wise to consider the consequences.
Shares of China’s biggest listed developers rallied in July in response to moves by local governments to make it easier for buyers to purchase property. An S&P Index of China property companies is 15% higher than in late June. It is thought that loosening of curbs should attract skittish buyers back to the market. These included minimum down-payment requirements and other limits, especially on buyers of multiple properties.
Judging by how aggressive local governments have been to support their markets, however, there is an alternate view: that the situation is worse on the ground than investors suspect. Buyers may be less willing to reflexively jump back in on the government’s buy signal.
…measures may provide some relief, but it is likely to be tepid. Transaction volumes continue to fall, albeit at a less severe rate compared with earlier in the year. Prices are sliding, and inventories of unsold properties are high across China.
A recent study by data tracker China Real Estate Index System showed that 17 Chinese cities have housing inventories that could take more than five years to digest. There also is an oversupply of property developers in need of financial help.
Investors have taken local-government easing moves as the beginning of the end of the property market’s woes. They might be better off taking it as a sign of how bad things really are.
Hi all…took a long break dealing with travel and recovery from travel and impending divorce issues.
I know someone trying to sell an apartment right now in Shanghai. It’s been a challenge. They think the seasonal market will save them in a couple of months because late summer is a bad time to sell but surely it will get better soon.
They think the seasonal market will save them in a couple of months because late summer is a bad time to sell but surely it will get better soon.
Not until after the Super Bowl.
You mean Chinese New Year.
“…and impending divorce issues.”
Rots of ruck.
Heh. Yeah.
“…impending divorce issues.”
Sorry to hear that…
China’s appetite for overseas property is insatiable
Peter Cai
20 hours ago
When China’s richest man, Wang Jianlin, came to Australia for a whirlwind visit in June, he was feted by the most senior political figures in the country — from Prime Minister Tony Abbott, to Trade Minister Andrew Robb and NSW Premier Mike Baird.
Just two months later, his property conglomerate Wanda, which is listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, announced that it would invest $HK12.5 billion, or $A1.7 billion, in the Australian real estate sector, including building a $900 million tourist resort on the Gold Coast.
Wang, one of the most powerful property tycoons in China, is no stranger to mega overseas deals. He made his debut as a global player in 2012 when he snatched up AMC Theatre, the second largest cinema chain in the US for $2.6bn. It was the biggest US acquisition ever by a private Chinese company.
Over a short period of time, Wanda has committed to 80bn yuan, or $A14bn worth of overseas projects including a pledge to splurge between £2bn-3bn to rejuvenate British cities after his meeting with the British Prime Minister David Cameron.
Wanda’s aggressive offshore expansion is one example of Chinese property developers marching overseas. According to Caixin media, Chinese property developers invested in 35 major projects worth over $US37bn, or $A40bn, in the first half of 2014.
“Chinese outbound property investments beyond Asia really took off in 2009, and they reached a record $US9bn in 2013. We believe more Chinese developers will look overseas to support the needs of their clientele,” says Terence Tang, managing director of Capital Markets and Investment Services at Colliers International.
Chinese buyers’ insatiable appetite for overseas property is one of the major driving forces behind the aggressive investment strategy of major developers. Chinese real estate buyers have become a major force to be reckoned with at several major Western countries, such as the US, Canada and Australia.
In the US, cashed-up Chinese are the biggest buyers of high-end luxury real estate in New York and they have outspent their main competitor, the Russian oligarchs. China has replaced Canada as the leading foreign buyer of American properties. According to the National Association of Realtors, Chinese account for 24 per cent of total foreign buying activity, up from 19 per cent.
Australia is also another perennial favourite for Chinese investors. China replaced the US as the largest investor in Australian properties last year. Chinese interest is driving an apartment construction boom in major cities in Australia such as Sydney and Melbourne. Credit Suisse estimates that Chinese buyers are currently purchasing about 12 per cent of new houses in Australia.
Greenland is another major player in the rapid expansion of Chinese property developers abroad, including Australia. The company is building the largest residential tower in Australia at Sydney CBD. The company also announced the largest ever foreign project in Malaysia, which is estimated to be worth about 20bn yuan or $A3.5bn.
…
Sounds like the Chinese are falling over themselves trying to get money out of China. At first I thought the article said they were heavily investing in Greenland. But I think it’s just a poorly written article, and Greenland is a company name. But I’m still not sure.
Dang — you burst my expectations bubble! I thought sure the article indicated China was investing in Greenland real estate.
“They aren’t making any more glaciers!”
-Greenland Association of Realtors-
Global warming will make the value of Greenland real estate skyrocket. Buy now, or get priced out forever!
Looks like Chinese are starting to fall over themselves to get their money out of the shadow banking system. Good luck with that.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-protests-highlight-shadow-lending-problems-2014-08-14-184852538
Anger flares as mainland Chinese muscle in on Taiwan property
By Yimou Lee and Faith Hung
TAIPEI Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:49am BST
Labourers work at the construction site of Beijing-based developer Vantone Real Estate’s apartment project in the suburb of Taipei August 8, 2014. REUTERS-Pichi Chuang
(Reuters) - Mainland Chinese are skirting rules aimed at limiting their purchases of property in Taiwan, stirring anger among local home buyers and fuelling worries over Beijing’s creeping influence over an island that it views as a renegade province.
While Chinese money has boosted property markets across the world - from Sydney and London to Vancouver - mainland capital flows into the self-ruled island are an especially emotive issue for many Taiwanese. The government in Taipei has been criticised by some for not being more restrictive on mainland ownership of Taiwanese real estate.
Fuelling fears of further encroachment by Beijing is a review of a cross-strait trade deal next month. In March, hundreds of students occupied Taiwan’s legislature for more than three weeks to protest against the trade pact.
Relations between Beijing and the island have see-sawed between aggression, attempts at rapprochement and occasional snubs ever since Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists lost a civil war to Mao Zedong’s Communist forces in 1949 and fled to Taiwan. Six decades later, dealings with the mainland are still widely viewed with mistrust and suspicion, especially when they involve mainland acquisitions of assets on Taiwan.
A senior official of Taiwan’s interior ministry, Shih Ming-shih, told Reuters that the government had imposed measures to limit Chinese from buying too many homes as such a move “would jeopardise our national security or economic development”.
“If people do not apply legally, there is no way we can stop that, but they have to bear the risk of losing the properties they bought,” Shih said in a warning to would-be violators.
Some Taiwanese feel priced out of the property market at a time when the government of China-friendly President Ma Ying-jeou is trying to convince them of the advantages of closer economic integration with the mainland through the cross-strait trade pact.
…
‘New bank lending in China plunged surprisingly in July to the lowest in nearly five years after an exceptionally strong growth in June, raising concerns over economic momentum.’
‘Banks in China extended 385.2 billion yuan (US$62.6 billion) in new yuan loans in July, only a third of the amount in June and 314.5 billion yuan less than July last year, the People’s Bank of China said in a statement yesterday.’
‘Last month’s credit grew the least since December 2009…Total social financing, the broadest measure of credit supply, including loans, bank acceptance bills, corporate bonds and equity financing, fell to a six-year low of 273.1 billion yuan, one seventh of that in June and a third of that a year earlier.’
‘The PBOC conceded demand has been weaker amid an economic slowdown and a cooling property market. The PBOC said banks now are more cautious in extending loans and avoiding risky sectors after the bad loan ratio rose for 11 consecutive quarters.’
From what I hear on the ground Taiwan is already getting uncomfortably close to having a majority who doesn’t really care if they are part of China or not and would happily vote to become part of China if given the option. But maybe that’s just Taiwanese teabagger talk…
Why would it be a bad thing for Taiwan to join China? Not being sarcastic; I just don’t know.
They’re asking themselves the same thing. My personal opinion is that the Chinese are too comfortable with dictatorship and corruption. But democracies aren’t going a great job of differentiating themselves from that.
How are your bond holdings doing?
Aug. 14, 2014, 6:40 a.m. EDT
German bond yields drop below 1% for first time
Dismal growth data spooks investors
By Josie Cox
Dismal European economic growth figures, particularly for Germany and France, sent German government bonds jumping to a record high, signaling that investors anticipate further stimulative action from the European Central Bank.
…
Aug. 13, 2014, 4:15 p.m. EDT
Treasurys boosted by weak U.S. retail sales
By William Watts, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch)—U.S. Treasury prices rose Wednesday after weaker-than-expected retail sales data reinforced speculation that the Federal Reserve won’t rush to raise interest rates.
Treasurys maintained gains after the Treasury Department sold $24 billion of 10-year notes amid solid demand. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell 0.035 percentage point to 2.414%. Yields fall as bond prices rise.
The yield on the two-year note fell 0.016 percentage point to 0.420%, while the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell 0.041 percentage point to 3.237%.
The Commerce Department said July retail sales were flat compared with June, the weakest in six months. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.1%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had produced a consensus forecast for an overall sales rise of 0.2%, while sales excluding autos were forecast to rise 0.4%.
“This is a disappointing report that suggests consumer spending growth got off to a soft start at the beginning of the third quarter,” wrote economists at RDQ Economics.
…
I think the housing bubbles and bubbles in many things with a finance aspect has to do with wealth and opportunity being redistributed from the middle-class to the wealthy. The last chart is a pretty good one, but they’re all indicative of what’s happening in regards to redistribution. Spoiler alert: Wealth was not redistributed to us.
http://static4.businessinsider.com/image/4bbcb17c7f8b9a6218b70000-1200/look-at-the-wealth-gap-grow.jpg
http://currydemocrats.org/in_perspective/taxes_for_weealthy_fallen_dramatically.jpg
http://www.motherjones.com/files/change%20share.png
http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/02/22/news/economy/income_inequality/chart_income_inequality.top.gif
“…wealth and opportunity being redistributed from the middle-class to the wealthy.”
Trickle up theory?
Our generation has is characterized by the rush of the middle class to the ranks of the debt peons. They have transferred a tremendous amount of wealth to the rich by trying to live like the rich with money they borrowed from the rich.
Clackamas, OR Housing Prices Plunge 9% YoY On Cratering Demand
http://www.movoto.com/clackamas-or/market-trends/
New Listings Surge 800% In Fort Worth TX As Price Reductions Explode 1200%
http://www.movoto.com/fort-worth-tx/market-trends/
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Turn Negative As Inventory Skyrockets 40%; Seller Price Reductions Balloon
http://www.movoto.com/sacramento-ca/market-trends/
“Oh my, oh why did I think I was getting such a stellar deal in 2012?!?!?! Fool me twice shame on me.”
SUCKA.
Local police need mine-resistant vehicles?
The Militarization of the Police
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/politics/2014/08/police_in_ferguson_military_weapons_threaten_protesters.html#lf_comment=200086873
The most striking photographs from Ferguson, Missouri, aren’t of Saturday’s demonstrations or Sunday night’s riots; they’re of the police. Image after image shows officers clad in Kevlar vests, helmets, and camouflage, armed with pistols, shotguns, automatic rifles, and tear gas. In one photo, protesters stand toe-to-toe with baton-wielding riot police, in another, an unarmed man faces several cops, each with rifles at the ready.
What’s more, Ferguson police have used armored vehicles to show force and control crowds. In one photo, riot gear-clad officers are standing in front of a mine-resistant ambush protected vehicle, barking commands and launching tear gas into groups of demonstrators and journalists.
The fact that police are eager to use their new weapons and vehicles isn’t a surprise. As the New York Times notes, “The ubiquity of SWAT teams has changed not only the way officers look, but also the way departments view themselves. Recruiting videos feature clips of officers storming into homes with smoke grenades and firing automatic weapons.” Put simply, when you give anyone toys, you have to expect they’ll play with them.
That is how we get images like the ones in Ferguson, where police officers brandish heavy weapons and act as an occupying force.
where police officers brandish heavy weapons and act as an occupying force ??
Have no idea what the numbers are particularly with hires in the last 10 years or so but many police officers come out of the military…Send some 20 year old kid to Iraq, let him witness and or participate in killing a lot of people, then bring him home and give him a badge and a gun…What would you expect ??…
Bad news at least for all of us civilians is this…They are protected by a union…They aren’t going anywhere…Get use to it…Some may go away because they will cross the line really bad and get caught, and even with massive union support, still be terminated or go to prison…
The stark reality is this….Most won’t get caught…Best thing to do is stay as far away from the police as you can get…
Added Note…I have a close friend that is a detective with the local police force…He was patrol for his first 20 years…He told me he decided to go detective because of what he was seeing with the newer group of recruits coming into the force and did not want to be in the field with them..Did not like what he saw…
He added, the swat guys ?? He said they are “really nasty”…Cold blooded assassins…Kind of a Jekel & Hyde…When they put that riot gear on, they morph into their “Iraq game face”…
I could go on with some stories but I will just leave it there…Kind of scary and depressing all at the same time..
the swat guys ?? He said they are “really nasty”…Cold blooded assassins…Kind of a Jekel & Hyde…When they put that riot gear on, they morph into their “Iraq game face”…
https://streetdemocracy.files.wordpress.com/2013/08/policestate-1-n.jpg?w=440
http://www.thesleuthjournal.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/militarized-police.png
http://coxrare.files.wordpress.com/2014/02/rise_warrior_cop.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/aPr8s0m.jpg
If this is how they react to black “protesters” tossing Molotov cocktails, just wait until Dianne Feinstein, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Holder launch their false flag operation to disarm 100 million gun owning Americans.
disarm 100 million gun owning Americans ??
Good luck with that…Even this center left citizen would not give up my guns…Ban assault weapons, big magazines and any other mass killing machine ??…Absolutely…But the remainder of the guns…”Don’t tread on Me”
Another dupe falls for divide and rule.
See also:
http://www.infowars.com/the-military-occupation-of-ferguson-missouri-is-just-a-preview-of-what-is-coming-to-america/
Is it “go time” yet?
My question is: Where is Rand Paul on this? Where are the supposedly libertarian-leaning politicians who oppose a police sate on this? If this were happening at the Bundy ranch, we’d be hearing from them. Their silence on this most egregious over-use of ¨police¨ force speaks volumes.
Mine-resistant vehicles. For the local police. Is it OK in ¨certain areas¨?
Must have heard you.
Rand Paul: We Must Demilitarize the Police
Thanks! Good opinion piece. I’m liking Rand more and more.
Right here:
http://time.com/3111474/rand-paul-ferguson-police/
Graffiti painted on the wall of the burnt out QuikMart in Ferguson, directed at Al Sharpton:
“Snitches get stitches”
If ebola don’t getcha, Fukushima will.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-08-14/we%E2%80%99ve-opened-gates-hell
The value of this article is how all the articles about Fukushima are aggregated. Definitely something to be concerned about.
Oh, hell YEAH! Nookular is SAFE, right? Just an outstanding energy source. (cough)
But wait, there’s NATGAS! Not as bad as nookular, but it’s SAFE! As long as you keep a bug-out bag in case of a leak. And of course, those explosions are usually only limited to neighborhoods, city blocks and stuff like that.
Jeebus. Get a clue. Look at what’s happening around the globe and you’ll realize that humans as a group are just too dumb to be playing with matches.
Upwards of 10 people a year die as a result of natural gas explosions. Not making the list of things most likely to kill you any time soon. Wood, water, direct asteroid strikes and legal execution are much more of a worry.
How would you know how many people are killed? They had to evacuate an entire neighborhood around here because of a couple of kids messing with the gas lines. In Taiwan they had an entire section of a city blow all to hell.
I’m just saying that it’s not the greatest source of energy because people in general aren’t equipped to handle it properly. In case you haven’t noticed, the US is more and more like Idiocracy every day. Ow my balls.
the US is more and more like Idiocracy every day. Ow my balls.
I’m always disappointed when I hit the door at Costco and they don’t say
“Welcome to Costco. I love you.”
“How would you know how many people are killed?
Google it for the USA.
I’m just suggesting that you consider the relative fear factor over the zillion other things more likely to kill you.
Hey, boyz’n'gurlz, it’s BACK TO SCHOOL time! Are you from a downwardly mobile, formerly middle class family and have no choice but to attend public school? Well, just make sure mumsy and daddy have laid in a stock of lice and scabies remedies, because you may have some new classmates bearing little gifts for you!
Look on the bright side. You’ll now know what the true meaning of “picking nits” is.
That wasn’t in the 2014 Souper Bowl Coke commercial.
Because if you don’t want your 14 year old daughter going to school with 20 year old freshman student MS-13 gang members, you are a racist
http://www.infowars.com/sessions-warns-of-chilling-obama-immigration-plotting/
Lice made an appearance at the private pre-school my niece and nephew attended on the upper west side of Manhattan. Lack of kids from south of the border doesn’t keep lice out schools.
“Lack of kids from south of the border doesn’t keep lice out schools.”
Whew! I feel a lot better about the lawless chaos now.
#ColowardAndPiven
“Lice made an appearance at the private pre-school my niece and nephew attended on the upper west side of Manhattan.”
Why is lice always associated with kids and schools?
Yeah, it’s like tornados and mobile homes.
My kid got them at camp, after the owners assured us it was under control. When I picked her up, the damned things were swinging from her hair at the temples. In order not to cut her hair short, it took two hours a night for a month, combing and putting some vaseline type stuff on her head. I didn’t want to use Rid - it smelled like Raid (they think it’s okay to put that on a kid’s head?)
I didn’t want to use Rid - it smelled like Raid
One time I had to buy Rid in college. I lingered until the store was almost empty and bought a bunch of extra stuff I didn’t need so the cashier “wouldn’t notice”. lol
Ah, the good old days - when people were capable of embarrassment
When I wuz a pup, lice was never an issue in my Catholic parochial school. I didn’t even know what they were, until like Rio, college.
And then in the later 1980s, I had a duplex which, when I purchased it, had an illegal third unit at the back. When we kicked out the tenant and started remodeling it and taking out the trash, like the old carpet, wowie, LICE! The guy was a real slob and his little daughter used to come to visit. I dunno if they were from her or him, but we had to get the place and ourselves treated.
After my brother called me to tell me there had been lice at the kids’ school (it was a few days after they had visited me), I called the nurse information line that comes with my health insurance. The nurse told me that lice can’t live more than 72 hours without being attached to a live host. That is why they spread so quickly among kids but not adults; children are much more likely than adults to touch heads or touch their head to a pet. A louse is very unlikely to jump from a live host to an inanimate object, though of course it can happen if the host is sufficiently inhabited.
Anyway, it is not like bedbugs that can live for ages on mattresses or pillows that have dead skin cells on them.
Hey, boyz’n’gurlz, it’s BACK TO SCHOOL time! Are you from a downwardly mobile, formerly middle class family and have no choice but to attend public school? Well, just make sure mumsy and daddy have some scratch.
Back-to-School Costs Soar, Burdening the Poor
http://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/back-school-costs-soar-burdening-poor-n175546
From binders and backpacks to USB drives and other gadgets, ballooning back-to-school supply lists are pinching poor families’ budgets and creating what some see as a have and have-not public education system.
“When it comes to things like school supplies, those are the things that can make or break your budget,” said Robyn Eastwood, assistant director of development and external affairs at Project Hope, a Boston-based organization that helps low-income mothers. “The cost of everything keeps going up…. Then it makes everything else a struggle.”
Experts say school districts now have less money for supplies, forcing them to rely more on parents for items such as markers and construction paper, cleaning supplies, tissues, copy paper and printer ink. While this is a hassle for middle-class parents, it’s a much bigger burden for poor families, who already struggle just to outfit their own kids for school.
“At this moment, it’s a definite stretch,” said Rhonda Maloney, a Project Hope client with two kids in school and one in college who works part-time as a medical secretary. Maloney might have to buy a graphing calculator instead of paying the electric bill. “It’s kind of just like a pinching game. I try to pay the most important things first … but when it comes to going back to school, things kind of go downhill,” she said.
we maybe if school districts made their employers pay more for health insurance and retirement money could be left over for the children…..amazing how that never enters in the conversation.
Anyone here on the ground in Lost Wages, Nevada? From what I’ve been reading, doesn’t look too good for the future. Those pics of Lake Mead are scary.
It is scary Palmy….The good news possibly, will be the “waste” that occurs throughout much of California…Most houses in the central valley do not even have water meters…Conservation is concentrated in the major urban area’s…If we don’t have a moderate heavy winter snow pack, I am not quite sure what will happen…
I know what will happen. You’ll pay our firm $100 million in design fees. Then you’ll pay us $2 billion to put together a team and install 500+ miles of large bore pipe, a few reservoirs and multiple lift stations. The option is dehydration so get your wallet out.
I know what will happen. Major out-gration to where there IS water.
And NO you can’t have any PacNorWest water!!! Dig another bore hole.
Seems like their Pit Bulls are doing okay.
I was showing a friend around in April, visited Hoover Dam. I hadn’t been there in a few years and I thought it was bad then, but now it’s really low.
Also, if you go north to Overton you can see deserted businesses at the mud’s edge, no water there. This was years ago, but I don’t see how it could have gotten better.
RJ says foreclosures up 128% in Nevada.
Nice.
I couldn’t talk my brother out of buying a condo here. Even Vegas RE agents are saying that it is tipping over to a buyers’ market (if not now, certainly in the fall.)
Tidal Wave of Home Sellers Wanting to Sell, But Buyers (and Elvis) Have Left the Building
When you consider that foreclosures in Washoe County alone (northern NV) went from 700+ per month, to less than 10 per month for several years because of the changes in requirements for banks (Assembly Bill 284), the backlog is gargantuan. Those people didn’t all of a sudden become current on their payments. Since going into effect October 1, 2011, coming up on 3 years, it is feasible that there are over 25,000 properties which should have gone through foreclosure which have not, and that’s in a place roughly 1/4 the size of the Vegas area.
House prices have re-bubbled in the area, with the median now standing at $250,000 in an area where wages are paltry and jobs consist mostly of the service variety (read $10 per hour). Whenever the shadow inventory is brought up, people just say that the banks will never flood the market, that they will trickle houses out for the next 10 years if need be.
And collapsing demand to 20 year lows. Thats right.
Actually, in the interest of honesty, 520 houses sold in July. The “20 year low” was 165 houses in January 2008. Not that you are interested in facts…
I actually like real data, not lies.
Right where it was in 1995.
You’ll catch on eventually.
“Right where it was in 1995.
You’ll catch on eventually.”
More lies.
Another reality that enrages you.
Crater.
~ The Enrager
I don’t think you enrage people, I think you bore people and make yourself look stupid in the process. If you’d stick to facts and the truth you’d be taken much more seriously. Posting stuff from Movato and what not is useful; lying about your supposed expertise is not. You talk a lot about subjects and areas you’re not familiar with, and to locals and professionals who are familiar with the subject matter you are completely transparent and phony. When people call you out on it you resort to trite little comments like “I enrage you,” or worse, insults about sexual orientation, etc. like you’ve done to Rio. But you never answer to the fact that you are wrong. You sound tremendously insecure with yourself.
And btw…. My stock in trade has been substantiate over and over again. And that enrages you too.
No, it hasn’t. You’re a phony. Realtors are liars, and so are you. Are you a REALTOR?
By the way- did you just learn the word “enrage” recently? You’re stuck on it for the past week or so. It’s odd, really. The fact that you call yourself “the enrager” is essentially admitting that you’re a troll, because your sole purpose on this blog is to annoy other commenters, regardless if they’re housing bulls or bears. Why is that? Doesn’t the fact you were banned resonate at all, Exeter?
You’re backpedalling from your rage.
***TROLL ALERT***
We’re in a deflationary spiral so hold onto your cash. You’re going to need every penny you can get your hands on.
I agree with you that we’re in a deflationary spiral. You and I actually agree on a lot of things. But I like truth. ALWAYS.
And the truth is you’re pissed off.
Try “substantial” high-school dropout.
‘A majority of communities in Summit County are experiencing declining property values in the wake of the latest sextennial reappraisal of home values by the Summit County Fiscal Office, with only Hudson and Twinsburg Township showing increases.’
‘Planning and Community Development Director Larry Finch said the city’s average value drop can be attributed to the lingering effects of the housing market crash of the early 2000’s, which can still be felt by homeowners today.
“The values generally reflect the housing bubble burst and the ramifications of that,” Finch said. “I think it’s a little late in the game that [the County] finally got around to doing the revisions and showing the impacts of the down market. It’s just reflecting what we’ve known for some time, that housing prices in all of Northeast Ohio declines because of the housing bubble.”
‘In the wake of the reappraisal, Twinsburg homeowners have little recourse but to be patient and hope the market recovers and boosts their resell value, according to Finch.’
“It depends on when you bought your home and how long you’re willing to wait before you try to sell,” Finch said. “If you can wait, I’m sure the market will recover eventually to the point where you’ll get everything back.”
Doublemint Gum used to recruit for their TeeVee commercials at the annual Twins Days festival there:
http://www.twinsdays.org/
Those Doublemint twins in the 70’s were smokin’ hot.
‘Already beset by stagnant wages, growing student debt and competition from investors who are snapping up listings, those looking to purchase moderately priced houses must also provide more cash up front. The median down payment for the cheapest 25 percent of properties sold in 2013 was $9,480 compared with $6,037 in 2007, the last year of the previous economic expansion.’
“The numbers tell the story of why we have millions of potential homeowners who are renters or living with their parents,” said Susan Wachter, a professor of real estate and finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School in Philadelphia. “What has changed is the ability to become an owner. And that’s changed through a down payment that’s more than doubled.”
‘Such obstacles, combined with the expectation of having to offer more cash up front, threaten to derail the younger generation from entering the housing market, said Wachter. “If higher down payments persist, we will have a millennial generation that’s missing in action in homeownership,” she said.’
Can anyone please explain to the MSM that this is GOOD (for market stability), and not bad? It pushes more of the “first loss” dollars onto the homeowner and not onto a future bailout parade.
Additionally, requiring some financial discipline as a prerequisite to getting a loan was sorely missing during the worst of the bubble–it weeds out lots of folks who don’t have the discipline to save even the most minimal down payment.
‘Can anyone please explain to the MSM that this is GOOD (for market stability), and not bad?’
To the reporters credit, they mentioned that. But overall, this is just one part of the intellectual dishonesty that has come to dominate public discussions of almost everything. We had the GSE’s go bankrupt in the mad rush to drive the bubble higher, even as their mandate was “affordable housing.” Janet Yellen had the nerve to give lip service to “affordable housing.” Stuff like this gets dropped into the media:
‘Stated income loans are making a comeback. These are loans where the borrower can’t provide tax returns or pay stubs, but shows bank or brokerage statements to show they can repay the loan. Lenders say the criteria for these loans are tighter than they were before the housing bubble.’
What happened to those tax returns and pay stubs? Did they get burned up in a fire?
It’s all positively Orwellian, how we talk about things anymore. I saw a poll this morning about how down people in the US are about the future. Jumping Jehoshaphat, we just learned yesterday that incomes are down over 20% in the past few years! How the heck are we supposed to feel?
OMG…stated loans making a comeback? Jeebus.
Not having paystubs doesn’t bother me (if you get paid through ownership in a business through a draw from the company, you wouldn’t get a paystub), but I completely agree with respect to tax returns.
Tax returns NOT produced should be a massive red, flashing light.
Then again, it’s all in the underwriting…if the borrower is putting 50% down, and has securities that are valued at am amount well in excess of the loan he wants to borrow, and DOES produce 3 years of tax returns, do I care as a secured lender whether he has a day job?
This is why I think it’s so important to have accurate information on this blog. There’s a troll here talking nonsense daily, acting like there are no house sales even happening, meanwhile you’ve got speculators buying houses in a frenzy, jacking up the prices in markets where wages pale in comparison, as I outlined above. Who in the hell can afford a $250k house on a median income of $40k? Now, they’re trying to figure a way to shoehorn them into a fantasy loan to drop an albatross around their neck? Good gawd.
Of the between 500-600 houses selling per month in northern NV over the course of the past few years, I’d be willing to bet that well over half went to speculators, perhaps even over 75%. It has created an absolutely awful situation again. We’re right back in the soup. Is that really what is important for the health of this country? This is absolutely insane. Why is there a goal to make shelter an immense financial burden?
Demand is collapsing.
Demand is probably collapsing in many areas, I would be willing to bet. And it WILL collapse in Washoe County. But consider this:
“Washoe County’s existing-home market continued its post-recession recovery in June with modest rises in sales as well as the median sales price, a report today shows.
Total home sales rose 3 percent from June 2013 and the median sales price jumped 11 percent to $250,000, according to the report from the Reno/Sparks Association of Realtors basedon data fromthe Northern Nevada Regional Multiple Listing Service.
“June sales are the third highest June in history, exceeded only by June 2010 and June 2005,” Mark Ashworth, RSAR president, said in a statement accompanying the report.”
I’d call him a liar, except that the sales numbers are available at the assessors website online, and the data backs it up.
“I saw a poll this morning about how down people in the US are about the future. Jumping Jehoshaphat, we just learned yesterday that incomes are down over 20% in the past few years! How the heck are we supposed to feel?”
Plus housing prices are way up again, at least where I live.
Higher housing prices and rents + lower incomes = lower standard of living.
“generation that’s missing in action in homeownership…”
Or possibly, house prices that are in line with incomes.
My friends mother recently sold a house in a working class suburb of Detroit for $47,000, which is the going rate for that area. Three acquaintences who knew her mother wanted to buy the house, but the banks said no to all of them. Ten other people showed up at an open house but no one made an offer. Then someone from an investment company called and said they would pay cash for the house, and also pay the expenses to bring the house up to code. I wonder how many of those 10 lookers would have been denied a loan too?
‘The American housing market is bad—and could get worse’
From the comments:
‘So if houses aren’t increasing 10% a year it’s bad news. Here in CT prices are still way too high and property taxes are so high it’s like having a second mortgage that you can never pay off.’
‘In fact, in every month since October 2013, purchase applications were lower than their counterpart in the prior year. And again….. Is there anyone stupid enough to believe there is a recovery happening?’
“Even with a paid off house taxes keep you on the hook”
Sher ’nuff!!
Baghdad Bob was a rank amateur, compared to us.
I think the markets where the speculators are have been the focus, while small towns are withering away and dying.
There are people dishonest enough to lie about a recovery that isn’t happening.
“There are people dishonest enough to lie about a recovery that isn’t happening.”
+1 Same goes for “hey-seus,” who likely isn’t returning.
SF Bay Area Housing Demand Collapses 13% YoY As Demand Plummets Statewide
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/County/County_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
http://www.americanthinker.com/2014/08/china_appears_ready_to_dump_its_us_treasury_bonds.html
I know it’s illegal to post right wing news articles, but here.
In China, a pig farmer can buy an ingot of copper and use it as collateral on numerous separate loans. What’s the chance that the government over there isn’t one step ahead?
“The weakening US dollar……..may have caused the 2008 global financial crisis”.
Oh good. Now I feel better
I thought it was the crazy azzez on Wall Street, with their creative financing/stealing and gambling with other people’s money.
Them, and the $20K year strawberry pickers with $800K mortgages.
Too bad the people of Fergeson, MO don’t have the same buddies Cliven Bundy has. Haven’t seen a single one of them show up yet in STL. And I’ve been watching the traffic on I-70, looking for the convoys.
Kinda looks like the are only worried about protecting the crazy white racists against the jackbooted thugs.
A closet/fantasy anarchist like me might think that it’s too bad they don’t move the protests to Lambert Field (1-2 miles west)………nothing like shutting down an airline hub to prove a point.
You wouldn’t even need to go on the airport……..just start a giant, smoky tire fire a half mile or so beyond the runway threshold.
‘The Federal Aviation Administration on Tuesday issued a no-fly zone over Ferguson, Missouri, to last until Monday, after tensions escalated in the town following the fatal shooting of an unarmed teen over the weekend.’
‘According to the FAA’s website, the agency restricted the airspace above the St. Louis suburb “to provide a safe environment for law enforcement activities.”
‘It prevents any aircraft from flying in the area below 3,000 feet, the notice said.’
Anything on an IFR flight plan can still get in/out of STL. Which means any airplane that matters.
Too bad the people of Fergeson, MO don’t have the same buddies Cliven Bundy has.
If this is true, I’m surprised to say a few are walking their talk.
8:56 AM PT: The “MIssouri Citizen’s Militia” has mobilized to Ferguson. These are the Bundy Ranch folks. From their “leader” Aaron Penerbathy: “If peaceful protesters get fired upon, it is my duty to uphold the constitution”
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/08/14/1321546/-BREAKING-St-Louis-County-Police-CALLED-OFF-from-Ferguson#20140814085609
“If peaceful protesters get fired upon, it is my duty to uphold the constitution”
That would be the point wouldn’t it.
You wouldn’t expect “the same buddies Cliven Bundy has” to protect people rioting and looting would you?
“If peaceful protesters get fired upon, it is my duty to uphold the constitution”
Awesome! Weŕe making some headway here. United we stand, divided we fall.
¨You wouldn’t expect “the same buddies Cliven Bundy has” to protect people rioting and looting would you?
It sounds like they are. And btw wasn’t Bundy technically stealing? And a bunch of guys with guns showed up to protect him? That would definitely constitute a riot, and be met with full police force, if black people did such a thing.
Take off your blinders, and see the truth.
Moral Equivalency fixes everything for progressives.
#SayWhat?
‘The latest real estate surge follows a transformation over the past two decades that already has enriched succeeding waves of homeowners. Central Harlem condo values have almost doubled since 2003 and more than tripled over the past 20 years, according to the Furman Center for Real Estate and Urban Policy at New York University.’
‘Steven Pasquale, a 37-year-old actor, recently bought a two-bedroom condo in a new development a few blocks north of 125th Street. Pasquale first noticed central Harlem when he filmed several scenes there.’
“I feel like I’m on the last wave of potential buyers that will be able to get a good bang for their buck,” Pasquale said. “In very short order, I imagine Harlem will be as pricey as the rest of Manhattan.”
And you’ll be rich Steve. Dang, that was easy. Just like those 2 AM infomercials said it would be.
“2 AM infomercials”
Tom Vu?
‘Bank repossessions of California homes increased from a year ago in July. Despite the decrease nationally, California and a half-dozen other states saw increases in bank repossessions. In California, they were up by 22 percent. They were also up in Maryland, Oregon and New Jersey.’
‘California now has the 10th highest foreclosure rate in the country.’
Yeah, they just posted a sheriff’s notice on the house across the street after a year and a half.
Ben,
My wife finally caught the “have to buy a house” bug. She’s been so patient, but the rebound kind of got to her with re-rising prices. She asked to go tour some houses and I said ok. She’s sick of our rental (a bit old, but great location), and doesn’t want another rental to fix it.
There are houses we can afford to buy at 2-3x income, but it still seems like they are about 30% overpriced.
That’s whats nice about being unmarried. No pressure to start building a new nest.
Never mind the inflated prices, I don’t see how anyone can commit to a house given the almost total lack of job security in the “Real-world” economy.
Since leaving my OEM job in Wichita, my average tenure is a little over five years. I’ll be five years into my current job next spring.
What state are you in?
San Diego, CA
A recent report on SD, from multiple UHS:
“Buyer are hesitant and lack confidence.”
“The inventory is swinging back to more bloated levels as buyers recoil from prices running far ahead of demand.”
“Buyers are worried about the economy.”
“A little more inventory.”
“We are only getting one segment of shoppers- mostly older people.”
Here’s something from CNBC’s Olick.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101919762
I generally haven’t found her data wrong, I just frequently disagree with her conclusions based on that data.
The other thing to consider are a few additional factors:
1. 7 years from foreclosure will start to run in earnest for an increasing number of Californians–I’ve seen surveys where a lot of people who were foreclosed would like to buy again (I’ve seen as high as 80%). After 7 years have run, they can buy with Freddie/Fannie again. This COULD add a lot of additional buyers.
2. It doesn’t look like lenders willing to lend to non-QRM standards will come about anytime soon…underwriting is likely to remain about as-is for some time to come–or at least not go completely 2005/2006 anytime soon (a good thing if you are a solid buyer–you won’t be competing with unemployed idiots trying to time the market right).
3. New development is still very limited. This is a double-edged sword. While it is likely to keep prices higher than if there was more development, it increases the chance that today’s pricing is associated with a “last concert ticket” type situation…adding just a small amount of additional supply could really push prices down. Development will not stay this low forever. You have to ask yourself what happens to pricing when development kicks up a notch.
4. Inflation adjusted, we are at about the point in the cycle where Robert Shiller’s data would strongly imply we are at a cyclical peak. Based on this, it is HIGHLY likely that there will be a better time to purchase within the next 7-10 years.
IMHO, the only way that I would be a buyer today in San Diego is if I could find a house that has been VERY well maintained, and fits my family for the LONG term, and I don’t plan on leaving anytime soon (15+ years). I think this is typically good advice, but especially apt today. You better really like the place you are buying, and have ample chance to do your homework on the house before buying it.
“Development” is non existent because demand is non existent with a massive excess supply.
‘“Development” is non existent because demand is non existent with a massive excess supply.’
Mathguy, since you are in San Diego, I think you can probably judge the merits of this comment. I won’t bother.
You already did.
Now is the time to wait in San Diego.
This is the last step in the foreclosure process.
The question I frequently ask is “is the current rate of foreclosure, when combined with the current rate of new delinquency (and new serious delinquency) clearing the market? Or is there a build-up of shadow inventory?”
I think we both would agree that while NJ/NY/FL had very low bank repossession rates up until the last couple of years, they had a massive build-up of delinquent loans (thus creating a massive pile of future foreclosures). The repossessions were hiding the truth.
The NY Fed released their household credit report today and they have some details on different states. Here is the link:
http://www.newyorkfed.org/householdcredit/2014-q2/data/pdf/HHDC_2014Q2.pdf
Page 21/22: CA continues to decline 90+ day delinquencies (and is among the lowest of the sampled states)
But most importantly, Page 23 shows CA as having the lowest percentage of mortgages transitioning into 30+ days delinquent of the sampled states, AND that level is about the same as it was in 2003. In other words, new bad loans are back to a much more normal rate.
However, all is not rosy…there is still higher than typical percentage of loans that are transitioning from 30+ to 90+ days (instead of about 0.5%, they are about 0.8%). My guess is that this is because there are a lot of underwater borrowers still…and those folks can’t simply sell the home if they get into trouble–default for these folks is a one-way ticket to foreclosure. This will lead to a higher than usual level of ultimate foreclosures until the percent of underwater borrowers gets back to a “normal” level.
There is all that and then there is the fact that California is in a huge real estate bubble. Prices need to fall dramatically for it to become anything near sustainable, and then of course the bubble mortgages will be toast.
Of course it looks rose with a foreclosure moratorium in effect holding back 4.4 million houses.
Another painful reality.
Just had to share. 10 million views. The comments are hilarious.
Prancercise® is defined as: A springy, rhythmic way of moving forward,similar to a horse’s gait and ideally induced by elation.
Original - Prancercise: A Fitness Workout
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-50GjySwew
Senility + awesome meds = Prancersize
I’ve been around a bunch of horses, and the Lippezaners are the only ones who do anything even remotely resembling this
Only old white women can do that around here. Anybody else gets hauled of for some kind of DUI/drug charge.
You would have to load me up with a truckload of drugs before I’d even think about doing it.
Another one to check out …… search Youtube for “zero gravity cats”.
“You would have to load me up with a truckload of drugs before I’d even think about doing it.”
Uhhh, I don’t think “Prancercize” is for men.
Uhhh, I don’t think “Prancercize” is for men.
lol He’s scaring the horses. The comments are hilarious on this one too.
“I want whatever meds she’s on.”
“My favorite part is at 3:29!”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cIXIZ_8aGM8
I walk to work at least 1x per week….I’ll bet it wouldn’t take me long to get stopped if I was walking like this…
Looks like it gives you a well-defined camel toe.
“…a well-defined camel toe.”
+1 Nothing wrong with some thigh-gap and camel toe.
The -fixr is going to be on vacation in San Diego next week.
So what does the typical US American, generic, non-artsy-fartsy/foo-foo, gearhead need to go see?
I was thinking about taking a day to drive up to LA and see the NHRA and Peterson Museums. Or find out where all of the local old warbirds are based. And the USS Midway and vicinity.
San Diego is absolute Generica, probably the least interesting city in existence. Depart for LA as quickly as possible.
X-Gs
Start with a trip to see the Nimitz.. a WWII carrier turned into a museum. Then you can wander around downtown and the waterfront(seaforth village) for a bit, then head across the coronado bridge, check out the hotel del Coronado, and spend some time on the beach. Bring a beach umbrella and sunscreen.
Next day, head up to la jolla. For either sunrise or sunset depending on your bend, take a stop at the top of Mt Soledad. It’s a WWII veteran memorial with 360degree panoramic view of the entire area. On a clear day you can see Mexico, the Coranado Islands, Catalina, downtown, point loma, etc.. Super nice.. Head to childrens pool to check out the seals and pass thru downtown la jolla for some people watching and window shopping. There is one of those nature photography stores that is pretty amazing and a lot of other art stores. There are also a lot of great places to eat. I recommend the rib place on prospect st (can’t remember name).
In the afternoon head over to la jolla shores. You can kayak, snorkel, paddleboard.. take your pick of water activities.. the kayak cave tour is pretty cool. At this time of year you can see the unagressive leopard sharks spawning which is cool. watch out for sting rays if walking.. shuffle your feet. Or, if the tide is low, walk about 1 mile north along the beach and check out the tide pools by scrips pier.
Next head up to torrey pines glider port to check out the hanggliders and parasails. If you are adventurous, take a tandem ride for about $175. You can also walk down the cliff path to blacks beach and see (or participate in) the nude sunbathing.
For nightlife, you can head downtown for a bit older more sophisticated crowd, or Pacific beach for the spring break style bar scene. Depends on how crazy you want to get.
Another day can be dedicated to Balboa Park and a second to the san diego zoo. The park has numerous museums with art, model trains, anthropology, natural history, sports, aerospace.. I would definitely recommend hitting the aerospace museum as a GSfixer:) And the auto museum is right next door.
There are a ton of other things too. If you’re interested I can keep going..
The fact that I have young kids will show, but the only place I’ve gone that I would recommend is the zoo. Truly world class.
I haven’t been able to hit the other places that Mathguy recommends…he definitely knows the city better than me.
The -fixr is going to be on vacation in San Diego next week.
The Nimitz sounds like the bomb. We did the Mighty-Mo at Pearl years back. Was guided by an old Japanese-American who was a young translator on the USS Missouri during the surrender ceremony.
Here’s some good, relatively healthy, inexpensive fast-food if you like roasted chicken. I do. Type “San Diego” in Locations.
At El Pollo Loco, we’re all about making delicious, authentic food–and it all starts with our fresh, real ingredients. That’s why we slowly grill our citrus-marinated whole chickens over an open flame, and hand-prepare our guacamole and fresh pico de gallo salsa. And we do it every single day. Because to us, it’s not just food–it’s our passion. Some say the lengths we go to are crazy, but to us, the taste is always worth it. It’s Crazy You Can Taste.
http://www.elpolloloco.com/our-food/
“Midway & vicinity”
Check out the SD Maritime Museum.
Also Balboa Park offerings (5 minutes drive from downtown).
Downtown La Jolla is a nice place to hang out if you are feeling hungry and flush.
Meanwhile back at the ranch…….obama a hypocrit when it comes to the press - really? sarc. WAPO and others are finally waking up to the statist police who are cramping down on them….really? And the outcome of this will be……
http://www.cjr.org/the_kicker/obama.php
The right needs to work with the left on HealthCare and vice versa. I think they will someday.
This from the conservative Manhattan Institute:
Don’t Repeal Obamacare, Transcend It
A conservative strategy that’s good policy—and good politics, too.
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2014/08/dont-repeal-obamacare-transcend-it-109981.html
Conservatives don’t have to repeal Obamacare in order to advance their principles. Indeed, it’s actually possible to take advantage of one of the law’s core provisions—its tax credits for the purchase of private coverage—to reform America’s entire health-entitlement behemoth, and to finally put the country on a fiscally stable trajectory.
Rep. Paul Ryan’s proposal to reform Medicare—giving future retirees “premium support” subsidies to shop for private health insurance—is, in fact, quite similar to Obamacare’s usage of “premium assistance” tax credits to offer coverage to the uninsured. So what if we used Obamacare to reform Medicaid and Medicare, by gradually migrating future retirees and Medicaid recipients onto a reformed version of Obamacare’s exchanges?
I ran the numbers. In a new white paper published by the Manhattan Institute, we estimate that, by 2023, this approach could reduce the deficit by more than $8 trillion over three decades, while also reducing taxes. That’s more than enough in savings to make the Medicare trust fund permanently solvent. Not solvent for another six or eight or 12 years—but forever.
Other reforms in the plan would allow insurers to offer less costly coverage on the exchanges, making health insurance more affordable for the tens of millions of Americans who will remain uninsured under Obamacare. Indeed, we estimate that under the plan, by 2023, 12 million more Americans would have health coverage than under the unreformed Affordable Care Act.
until a pack of smokes costs $20 (see also australia) and a can of coke costs $5, there is no solution to the health care problem in this country. one third of the adult population is obese and that is not decreasing any time soon.
San Diego Pension Dials Up the Risk to Combat a Shortfall
A large California pension manager is using complex derivatives to supercharge its bets as it looks to cover a funding shortfall and diversify its holdings.
The new strategy employed by the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association is complicated and potentially risky, but officials close to the system say it is designed to balance out the fund’s holdings and protect it against big losses in the event of a stock-market meltdown.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/san-diego-pension-dials-up-the-risk-to-combat-a-shortfall-1407974779
TIP: Google search on the title for the full article, no password.
Looking forward to saying “I told you so” when this puppy blows up in a few years.
Leverage spells headline risk for pension fund
By Dan McSwain
5:03 p.m. Aug. 14, 2014
The Mission Valley headquarters of the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association, which manages a $9 billion pension fund for county government workers. The Mission Valley headquarters of the San Diego County Employees Retirement Association, which manages a $9 billion pension fund for county government workers.
By tradition, a public pension fund is safe and boring.
If you run one of these multibillion-dollar funds, replacing a lost benefit check should be your biggest problem on any given day. Same goes for taxpayers who support the pension system, and retirees who depend on it.
Here’s what you don’t want: A front-page article about your fund in The Wall Street Journal.
Yet that’s precisely where San Diego County’s fund landed Thursday morning, as it has on many U-T San Diego covers in recent years.
Here’s how Journal reporter Dan Fitzpatrick described the situation: “A large California pension manager is using complex derivatives to supercharge its bets as it looks to cover a funding shortfall and diversify its holdings.”
That sounds neither safe nor boring.
Until the 1980s, when pension managers began adding stocks to portfolios, most funds were restricted to ultrasafe government bonds. But by the 2000s, many had added hedge funds, commodities, private equity and other alternative investments.
Now fund managers are reconsidering whether the returns have justified the additional risk. On Monday, The Wall Street Journal reported that managers of CalPERS, the nation’s largest fund, are considering a move away from alternatives.
The trend leaves San Diego County increasingly alone at the cutting edge of complexity.
…
Taxpayers already are on the hook to back-stop public retirees funding shortfalls, so why take on the additional risk with complex derivatives?
Sign language gorilla Koko ‘close to tears’ after Robin Williams’ death
(Just like the parents at, oh never mind)
From the UK’s Daily Mail:
By J Gardner | 13 August 2014
News of Robin Williams’ untimely death hit particularly close to home for famed sign language gorilla Koko, who handlers say was moved nearly to tears by the somber mood shared by all at her Northern California home.
Staff at the Gorilla Foundation were, like much of America, in mourning after hearing the news Monday. Williams visited their center in 2001 and quickly befriended Koko, making her laugh for the first time in six months.
So when they explained to Koko, who is fluent in American Sign Language, that a dear friend of the center had died, she soon became sad and is pictured sitting hunched over with a quivering lip.
sweetness-light.com/archive/koko-close-to-tears-at-news-of-robin-williams-death - 35k -
PUTIN SAYS THE PETRODOLLAR MUST DIE: “THE DOLLAR MONOPOLY IN ENERGY TRADE IS DAMAGING RUSSIA’S ECONOMY”
“We should act carefully. At the moment we are trying to agree with some countries to trade in national currencies”
Putin Says The Petrodollar Must Die: “The Dollar Monopoly In Energy Trade Is Damaging Russia’s Economy”
by ZERO HEDGE | AUGUST 14, 2014
On one hand, despite initial weakness following Europe’s triple-dip red alert, futures declined only to surge higher after some headline or another out of Russia was again spun to suggest imminent Ukraine de-escalation (something which Russia whose only interest is to keep crude prices high, has absolutely zero interest in), perpetuating a rumor which was set off by a Russian media outlet tweet last week that has sent S&P futures over 50 higher in less than a week on… nothing.
On the other, Putin just said the following, which no matter how one spins it, shows precisely how Russia is inclined vis-a-vis future (un-de-counter) escalations.
Reuters adds:
PUTIN SAYS THE PETRODOLLAR MUST DIE: “THE DOLLAR MONOPOLY IN ENERGY TRADE IS DAMAGING RUSSIA’S ECONOMY”
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday Russia should aim to sell its oil and gas for roubles globally because the dollar monopoly in energy trade was damaging Russia’s economy.
“We should act carefully. At the moment we are trying to agree with some countries to trade in national currencies,” Putin said during a visit to the Crimea region, which Moscow annexed from Ukraine earlier this year.
Countries such as China, India, Iran, Brazil, and virtually every other non-insolvent, that is to say “developed, Western” country.
And now, bring on the Russian “isolation” (which is about to push Europe, not Russia, into a triple-dip recession) and further de-escalation.
Could the Fed be set to debase the dollar even further (and provide a new gusher of free gambling money for the .1%)?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/more-quantitative-easing-to-come-2014-08-14?dist=tbeforebell
Houses and apartments in Rio have no heat (as in Hawaii). (Although a couple years back I used a tiny space heater I brought from USA in the bedroom once.)
I just heard on the radio today’s the coldest day of the year in Rio! 18 C (64 degrees Fahrenheit) right now and dropping like a bomb. Burrrrrrr. It’s a brutal cold. A frigid numbing tropical cold that sinks right down into the bones. lol Man, the Rioians (Cariocas) are freaking out. I love the winter here. All 3 weeks of it.
I’m going to a restaurant by the beach but I’m going to have to wear long pants and socks.
Comment under Diana Olick article, Tuesday, August 12, “Home sales, price gains cool as summer lingers” blah, blah…
Warren Buffett’s father, unlike his crony capitalist “Oligarchs for Obama” son, understood the value of honest money.
http://www.theblaze.com/blog/2014/08/13/the-key-libertarian-in-warren-buffetts-life-that-he-never-listened-to/
ATTKISSON: BORDER PATROL SAYS THEY’RE TOLD ‘LET AS MANY PEOPLE GO AS POSSIBLE’
14 Aug 2014, 7:51 AM PDT
Former CBS News Correspondent and senior contributor to The Daily Signal said Border Patrol officers she has spoken to say they are being told to “let as many people go as possible.”
“Whether spoken or unspoken, there is a policy coming from the top, that they’re basically to be very lenient and try to let as many people go as possible, that’s what they think, that’s the message they think they’re receiving,” she stated on Thursday’s broadcast of “The Laura Ingraham Show.” She added that agents she has talked to believe “they’re being told not to do the job.”
Attkisson also reported that some of the court dates being given to illegal immigrants in the United States are for dates in 10 years, reporting, “I spoke to a member of Congress, if I understood him correctly, who said some of the court dates being given are 10 years out.”
162 Comments
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government - 291k -
That DNC Supermajority isn’t going to build itself, you know.
#ClowardAndPiven
http://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/2dkuik/my_mother_died_18_months_ago_i_havent_lived_with/
Apparently Russian oligarchs, like our own, feel entitled to limitless bailouts.
http://wolfstreet.com/2014/08/14/the-sanctions-are-now-eating-their-lunch-russian-ceos-beg-for-bailouts-german-economy-swoons/
Millenials are renting instead of buying…imagine that. “Generation Screwed” is getting its just desserts for voting for hope ‘n change (granted, the crony capitalist GOP alternatives were even worse).
http://www.businessinsider.com/millennials-renting-instead-of-buying-2014-8
Oh my goodness….
Nevada Housing Demand Plunges Through Great Recession Floor And Sinks To September 2001 Low
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
http://picpaste.com/pics/4572090f3a5060ba17fe367e197a1e01.1408066435.png
Report: Gen X leaving SD, taking their kids
By Dan McSwain
4:51 p.m. Aug. 13, 2014
A trend since 1995, more families left San Diego County than arrived from other states in 2013, a sign that high costs and lack of jobs are discouraging residents. — Sean M. Haffey
New research shows that San Diego County has been losing a key portion of the community, with substantial numbers of the Generation X population group leaving town — and taking their children with them.
There is no single cause, but evidence suggests rising housing prices played a powerful role, combined with falling numbers of middle-income jobs, said study author Kelly Cunningham, economist with the National University System Institute for Policy Research.
“It’s our middle class that’s getting squeezed,” he said Wednesday.
From 2008 to 2013, a period that frames the Great Recession and its slow-growth economic aftermath, the overall population of San Diego County grew by 3.9 percent to 3.17 million people, according to Cunningham’s analysis of census data compiled by the California Department of Finance.
However, the population actually fell by 4.6 percent over the five years in Generation X, the demographic cohort from ages 35 to 49. And Millennials, the cohort from birth to 19 (and the largest group), fell by 1.9 percent, indicating enough Gen X families left town to offset births and immigration of young people.
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How is the red hot SoCal real estate market looking nowadays?
County median home price dips
By Jonathan Horn
9:30 a.m. Aug. 13, 2014
Updated 2:19 p.m.
Homes are lined up near Carmel Valley. — K.C. Alfred
Annual home price appreciation in San Diego County is nearly back to a normal pace, continuing its descent from last year’s gains of more than 20 percent.
Last month, the median price for a home sold in San Diego County was $445,000, which is 6.6 percent higher than the median price in July 2013, real-estate tracker CoreLogic DataQuick reported Wednesday.
By comparison, home prices in July 2013 were up 22.1 percent from the previous year, an increase driven largely by investors who fixed up and resold distressed properties, or rented them out and therefore constrained supply.
“When we were seeing 22 percent price appreciation, I would argue it wasn’t the case that the same exact house was selling for 22 percent more,” said Jordan Levine, director of economic research at Beacon Economics. “It was that the mix of houses were skewing toward less distressed, which pumped up those overall medians.”
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From June to July, the median home price in the county declined by $5,000. At the same time, activity in the county’s real-estate market declined both over the month and annually. In July, there were 3,474 transactions closing in San Diego County, down from 3,736 in June, and an 18.5 percent drop from the 4,260 transactions in July 2013.
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Housing market flashes ‘caution’
Persistent sales slowdown keeps the local recovery fragile, raising odds of relapse
By Dan McSwain 5:56 p.m. Aug. 3, 2014
This Wednesday, Nov. 14, 2012 photo shows a home for sale in Leucadia. — AP
A time-tested signal of weakness in the housing market is flashing yellow.
When you compare the number of home sales (which are highly seasonal) with those from the same month a year earlier, this key measure has declined in San Diego County for nine consecutive months through June — with five at double-digit rates.
Statewide trends are similar, with 11 straight months of year-over-year sales declines, according to the latest figures from DataQuick, a company that tracks transactions reported to county governments.
“My sellers are in complete shock. We’re getting no calls, no inquiries. It’s like the market just went away,” said Kimberly Dotseth, a San Diego real estate broker. “Buyers think prices are too high.”
An exception is the lower-priced segment of the market, where homes listed for $400,000 or less are still receiving multiple offers and quick sales. This supports the view that high price might be a primary factor discouraging many sales, rather than other factors such as tough lending standards or too few homes on the market.
photo
In the history of housing markets, downturns typically have begun with sales weakness that sometimes ended up forcing down prices, but not always.
This holds back the wider economy, even if home prices don’t fall in the near future — as they have twice since 2006. That’s because low sales activity reduces a giant source of spending for remodeling, decorating and new construction.
Given the trauma of the last decade, the condition of the local housing market is a serious subject.
So don’t get me wrong — there’s no evidence that a housing bubble has formed and is starting to pop, with the consequences of lost jobs and household wealth the region experienced after the 2008 financial crisis.
A bubble requires sloppy lending and blind faith that prices will shoot ever higher. We’re not seeing widespread irrationality.
And with mortgage rates still near historic lows, traditional buyers who plan to keep their homes for the long run have little reason to fear near-term market weakness.
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SoCal Housing Sales Plummet ‘Cause No One Can Afford to Buy
Thursday, August 14, 2014, by Bianca Barragan
California housing sales are plummeting and the market “show[s] little signs of rebounding,” says the LA Times. Sure, sales have been down since October, but the year-over-year drop in July was an enormous 12.4 percent in the six SoCal counties and down 12.5 percent in just Los Angeles—that leaves the number of sales at a three-year low, say the number-crunchers at DataQuick. And, as we’ve been told time and time again, these droopy sales figures are largely the result of huge increases in housing prices; there are just not a lot of people who can afford to buy, no matter how bad they’d like to. “Prices came a long way in a couple of years, and now a lot of would-be buyers just can’t stretch their finances enough to buy in today’s more conservative lending environment,” a DataQuick analyst says. The median sales prices in SoCal ticked up 7.3 percent in July, to $413,000; the Los Angeles median price increased 7.6 percent, to $457,500.
The numbers are extra-slumpy as a result of the decline in distressed sales, which is a good thing if you’re anyone besides an investor or someone looking for an incredible bargain on a foreclosed house. Once those sales are taken out of the data, “conventional” sales only fell 2.8 percent. Is this all part of the long return to so-called normalcy in the housing market? Maybe next month’s numbers will answer that.
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Southern California home sales plunge in July home sales
With home prices sharply higher, there are simply fewer buyers able to afford them. Above, a home for sale in Lake Forest last year. (Patrick T. Fallon / Bloomberg)
By Andrew Khouri contact the reporter
Southern California home sales plunged in July and show little signs of rebounding. And that, economists say, could stunt the region’s economic growth.
Buyers scooped up 20,369 new and resale houses and condos in the six-county region last month, down 12.4% from a year earlier, research firm CoreLogic DataQuick said Wednesday. The sharp drop follows steady declines since October, as would-be buyers struggled to afford houses after prices surged last year.
Home sales
The drop in sales could have economic repercussions. When someone buys a home, they often splurge on items such as new furniture, fresh paint or new carpeting. Then there are real estate agents, mortgage brokers and moving companies to pay.
“The housing multiplier effect is very significant, because there are so many things that happen with a home purchase,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Assn. of Realtors. “That is dampened when you have lower home sales.”
The pain is especially acute for brokers, who depend on a commissions.
“There are a lot of hurting agents right now,” said South Bay agent Leo Nordine, who said his volumes have been roughly flat this year. “There are too many agents and not enough sales.”
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San Diego real estate cools off: Will rest of California follow?
Diana Olick | @diana_olick
14 Hours Ago
CNBC.com
California is often seen as a barometer for the rest of the nation’s housing market. If that is the case, then housing this fall is not looking good. Southern California home sales fell to a three-year low in July, according to CoreLogic DataQuick, a research firm, with San Diego leading the way.
San Diego sales volume fell 18.5 percent in July from a year ago, a far deeper slide than the rest of the state. Prices are still higher than last year, but the gains are easing. The median price of a San Diego home hit $445,000 in July, up 6.6 percent from a year ago. The streak of double-digit annual home price appreciation in much of California ended in June.
“Homes that are in good condition and priced well are still selling quickly,” said Geoffrey Schiering, a San Diego Realtor. “The inventory of homes for sale has risen slightly, but remains at a relatively tight 3-month supply. However, the number of closed sales has dropped substantially…this suggests that as some sellers have begun pushing their list prices higher, more homes are failing to sell.”
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The story I am about to post is so rich, I almost wish ABQDan were around to attack it for good measure.
ft dot com
August 12, 2014 3:40 pm
‘Return to rationality’ signals big shift in China’s housing market
By Josh Noble in Hong Kong and Gabriel Wildau in Hangzhou
A general view of new residential buildings under construction in downtown Qingdao city, Shandong province, China, 01 August 2014. Many Chinese cities cancelled the property-purchasing limitation from 01 August 2014, in about 20 regions. Mostly second and third tier cities have canceled or eased bans on ownership of more than one residential house. The property-purchasing limitation policy imposed in early 2011 is a tool to cool the property market in China. EPA/WU HONG©EPA
Still building: but the worst may be yet to come for China’s property sector
As China’s real estate slump began to hit sales at the Champs Elysées development in the picturesque lakeside city of Hangzhou, the company building it responded with a price cut.
Angry homeowners gathered to protest, holding banners with slogans such as “Return my blood and sweat money!” as police formed a barricade around the office entrance. The residents relented eventually, perhaps with the creeping realisation that the days of making easy money in the Chinese real estate market are over.
“People are returning to rationality,” says Chen Xuemei, sales manager at the Champs Elysées. “If they are starting a family and need a home, they will still buy. But people are no longer buying homes expecting to earn a big profit.”
China’s multiyear property boom appears to be grinding to a halt. Prices have dropped in many parts of the country, sales have dried up and new construction has fallen sharply as developers have retrenched.
A change in mindset among Chinese homebuyers – away from pure speculation towards a system based on fundamental demand for accommodation – is leading to a profound shift in the way the country’s housing market operates.
“Previously parents told their kids: don’t squander your money . . . save it and buy a house. After you buy a house, save more and buy another house,” says Du Jinsong, property analyst at Credit Suisse, the bank. “Now even parents are saying: don’t buy houses any more – it’s not worth it. I think this is a very big change.”
China’s last property downturn in 2011 was met with concerted action from central government, including interest rate cuts.
This time, however, Beijing has held firm, leaving local governments – and property developers – to formulate their own responses. Those efforts are now in full swing, including price cuts, easier access to capital and the end of restrictions on multiple home purchases.
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PIIGS in trouble…got deflation?
The Telegraph
Is the eurozone being dragged into deadly spiral of deflation?
Portugal, Greece and Spain are in deflation, official figures show, while Italy’s inflation rate fell to zero in July
Is the eurozone being dragged into deadly spiral of deflation?
Spain slipped into deflation in July, while prices fell more sharply in Portugal. Photo: Reuters
By Szu Ping Chan
2:52PM BST 14 Aug 2014
It’s official. Portugal, Greece and Spain are in deflation - while Italy isn’t far behind.
Prices in the three eurozone nations fell in July, while overall inflation in the currency bloc was confirmed at just 0.4pc, down from 0.5pc in June. This represents the lowest level in almost five years.
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Should be good to help keep the lid on U.S. interest rates without the need for further QE.
phony scandals