Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Posted By: Ben Jones @ 12:28 am
Housing is always a loss. Always.
I disagree, it’s not a loss, it’s a cost, but it certainly isn’t a piggy bank.
This nested in the wrong place.
as a renter, my projected housing ‘loss’ is logged on the spreadsheet and projected to within a $100 margin of error for the next 12 months. loanowners can’t do that.
and more importantly, the opportunity cost of my time wasted on housing related nonsense is nearly zero. as a renter, there are no ’surprises’ like those faced by loanowners. i will be making exactly zero visits to loan depot or blowe’s.
the opportunity cost of lost time to loanowners is incalculable.
Goon some people are defined by the fact they “own” a house. The cost in time and money is a small price to pay to send pictures of their house to friends, relative and work colleagues. One of my work mates regularly send pictures of his house and car to junior colleagues, with the exhortation of “this is what you should be aiming for”; he doesn’t send them to me, he thinks I’m mad because I don’t have a large four bedroom house, in a “nice” neighbourhood and a BMW, but I will be mortgage free in six months to a year, he won’t.
Signing up for a few hundred thousand dollars in losses is a small price to pay?
Do you read what you write?
Never said he was other than mad, but to him it’s a small price to pay, especially has he has no idea what the cost is. Ignorance is bliss.
Comment by Housing Analyst
Keep this in mind J._Fraud…. cap rates are negative double digits at current asking prices.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Rental Watch
Do you even know how a cap rate is calculated?
Here’s a hint, you don’t include the cost of debt.
Reply to this comment
Comment by Housing Analyst
Negative double digits R._Fraud.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Jingle Male
…to have a negative cap rate, you would have to pay the renter to occupy the house. HA is an idiot…..
What’s the accounting term, “Total Return”? Which is not the same as “cap rate.”
Maybe what we have here is failure to communicate.
Cap rate is pretty straightforward.
Net Operating Income (NOI) divided by total cost.
NOI is revenue less operating expenses (property taxes, insurance, repairs and maintenance, etc.), but NOT capital improvements, or depreciation.
Unless the rent doesn’t pay the operating expenses, you don’t have a negative cap rate.
And I’m not trying to take people to jargon school, but if folks use specific terminology, they should at least know what it means, or else we will be talking past one another.
For what it’s worth, it’s pretty rare that cap rates for LEASED real estate go negative.
What if the net operating income goes away before you’re done paying off the mortgage? Like if the house deteriorates before the landlord is done with the perpetual refinancing scheme.
Then you bought a home that was too old for the strategy, or didn’t maintain the asset, or manage your cash flows well, and you default. The bank forecloses and you lose (and maybe the bank loses too).
To maintain the income, you need to maintain the asset (and have an asset to maintain). You probably wouldn’t be surprised by the number of times this doesn’t happen. Our business frequently invests in commercial assets where supposedly professional owners don’t maintain the building.
Eventually, the building gets a bad reputation in the market, and it becomes unleaseable in the market (or leaseable only at a low rent), and so there becomes a profit opportunity for someone to buy the asset at a lower price (at inherently a negative cap rate), provide the capital necessary to fix the building, and bring the leases back to a market rent.
Obama’s favorite oligarch helps yet another company - Burger King - evade US corporate taxes.
Your creditors are closing in aren’t they?
Last I checked, tax laws started in the House of Representatives. If they don’t want these tax-saving deals to made, they can simply pass a law against it. I’m sure the Senate would be agreeable. In fact, the Senate made a decent attempt with S.3816. (oh, right, the Republicans filibustered that one.)
Or do you want Obama to sign an executive order on tax law, just so you can threaten (again) to impeach him?
Spoken like a true communist.
Our taxes are too high. Our regulations are too burdensome. Our government is too big.
Companies and productive people are leaving.
Quick - Raise taxes even more, create more regulations and make government even bigger…
And if that doesn’t happen - it is the republicans fault in the house.
You just can’t fix this kind of stupid. Maybe 10 years living in Zimbabwe or North Korea could help…
Taxes don’t make sense under communism, since people can’t own anything.
Yeah, when he writes, “You just can’t fix this kind of stupid,” he doesn’t realize what he is describing.
No, tax laws are written by the K Street lobbyists for their corporate pimps, and then passed to Wall Street’s Republicrat whores for rubber-stamping.
Ultimately it does all come down to the politicians. They write the laws which govern the country, including its businesses.
Like any other destructive business practice - offshoring of all sorts of manufacturing capacity, corporate looting, putting taxpayers on the hook for bad debt and rewarding those who engage in these actions - politicians get paid by businesses indulging in these actions.
And as long as voters keep voting them back in, there is absolutely no reason to stop.
It is a question of boiling the frog slowly. Eventually there will be electoral consequences but to politicians looking for donations/shakedowns, the next election is the most important.
None of these people - politicians or the Fed - are social workers. They are doing what they do to enrich themselves and improve their and their associates’ positions. And they’re going to keep doing it till circumstances force them to change.
Why The Middle Class In America Is Being Systematically Destroyed
On a brighter note, Good Morning. Embrace the day.
Misleading title. We know HOW the middle class is being destroyed, and we know why we know that the middle class is being destroyed. But why — as in, what’s the motivation to destroy the middle class?
I was thinking the same thing myself. Very misleading title. The “why” question was not answered.
Here’s a ‘why’ that’s kind of funny but also dovetails nicely with the stuff discussed here. 5 minute scene from a movie released in 2001 called ‘The Accountant’.
The American middle class is complicit and complacent in their own destruction as long as they continue to mindlessly vote for Wall Street’s Republicrat duopoly.
If you like your house, you can keep your house.
Bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes could fix this…
When did going hungry become the euphemism “food insecurity”? George Carlin
material. Who makes this “chit” up?
And looking around, a little intermittent fasting might be a good thing. It would certainly put a dent in the Diabetes epidemic.
what has really changed in the economy in the past 6 years?
7 Trillion added to the debt ticker, student loan and credit card debt climbing again.
This is the most beautiful thing ever, Arby’s is debuting a $10 sandwich called the “Meat Mountain” that contains 2 chicken tenders, 1.5oz turkey, 1.5oz ham, 1.5oz corned beef, 1.5oz brisket, 1.5oz angus steak, 1.5oz roast beef, 1 slice each of cheddar and swiss, and 3 half strips of bacon:
Combine that Arby’s Meat Mountain w/ a few MJ infused carbonated drinks, and I will be in bacon heaven next year on the Colorado Trail. Thank you Colorado. An average joe blow can live in flyover and yet indulge in the state’s nirvana at least one month outta the year.
Arby’s is still around? And a $10 sandwich to boot? I don’t eat at any of these fast-food places, save for once in a blue moon if it’s late on a road trip and I am so hungry that I am about to eat my own arm. Who’s keeping them in business?
I might add that eating fast food would be a very expensive diet. I can make 4 meals of delicious vegetarian spaghetti for right around $1 per meal.
California Housing Demand Collapses In 55 Of 58 Counties; Craters 12% YoY To 10 Year Lows As Inventory Balloons
you have no say in the money printing.
Considering we’re in a deflationary spiral, what does it matter.
linked from drudge, here comes the scamnesty:
background on luis gutierrez here:
You gotta live in Chitcago, ILL ANNOY to truly understand the scuminess of guys like lucky Luis - he is the surface scum of a very deep cess pool of utter corruption and evil that inhabits this dump!!
Meaning the electorate in Chicago is equally corrupt, since they voted these shysters into office and maintain them there. Machine politics at its worst.
Have not posted in a long while. I have been active in the local judicial sale auctions in the last couple of years and have spotted some trends in the ever-changing dynamic of underwater inventory vs a limited pool of investors willing to part with their cash:
Banks have just recently (last six months) started letting a few properties go without much fight (lowered plaintiff bids [reserve]).
Real recently: Starting to notice a certain ratio of sales of re-foreclosed houses that were sold post-collapse by the lender at ‘bargain’ prices (09+ sales now again in foreclosure).
Thought you all might be interested…
You’re in Florida, right? It’s interesting that the house across the street is finally going up for sale, having been in the hands of the bankers for a year and half. Lots of action going on.
What I don’t get is the photography fetish that the banks seem to have, though. Within the space of about two weeks there must have been three or four property preservation people that came by and photographed the place inside and out within an inch of its life. You’d think it was a photo shoot for Home and Garden.
I’m guessing the extensive photographic report is so the lender can make an accurate as possible assessment of the property so they have something on which to base their decision on whether to let it go at the courthouse sale (and for how much) or try to market it themselves through one of their [scam-based] local realtors or other fake auction [auction dot com, hubzu, etc] as the county auction dat draws near. I have gotten really good at doing title work and records research which has actually been fun as well as educational. You should try checking the public records regarding the case(s) with that house in your neighborhood and see where it is currently.
Some realtor is now involved. We were parking one of our cars over there and she warned us it would be hauled off, lol. Right now the bank’s property preservation lead is in the process of getting bids for trash-out, as it is more than they are authorized to handle.
I’ve been watching a house down the road - back in Feb up came a dumpster, they did a full kitchen gut, new roof, etc. On the market since March. Now there’s an Auction.com listing for this week on the house.
Two or three more just on this same street - fix and flips by banks. All sitting.
where are you?
We bought in a bubble fixer marginal neighborhood, surrounded by diverse trash, as it turns out.
“We bought in a bubble fixer marginal neighborhood, surrounded by diverse trash, as it turns out.”
You spent all that cash, and just now realized you don’t like the neighborhood?
These homes are in the 150-170k range nominal values, asking 200k area though which is why they are sitting. My neighbor’s house just went for 190k - we are about 10 years newer in this subdivision vs. where everything is for sale.
Foreclosure Radar was my go to website (lurker, then full-blown subscription). It had all the dirt, lenders and amts, property data, and eventual cancellation of auction. Very few went to auction.
We bought thru a Dementia Patient Trust.
They are hiring multiple contractors to bid on a job that will never be done. They do this so they can make a better guess at how much of a discount to take off the asking price.
We call them photo-Nazi’s.
Good one. I like “Photo Fetishists” myself. I’ve never seen anything like it. That place has been photographed more times than Mt. Rushmore. One gal even came over in the dead of night and we could see all these blue flashes from inside the house. Creepy.
It’s some of the clients that require so many photos. The photos have to justify the bids. So you want to capture as much debris, etc, as you can. Most of them have a photo check list. If your photos are insufficient, they can and will deny payment. The result is most contractors over compensate.
The stupidest stuff is action shots. Taking photos of wiping window sills or cutting grass.
Yes, very interested. Please keep us updated. And always remember to be mean to your banker!
Lucky Ducks the world is your oyster!
Entry level window cleaner wanted.
* Experience a plus but not required, WILL TRAIN THE RIGHT PERSON.
* Pay 10.00 - 15.00 D.O.E.
* Must possess sound communication skills, verbal and written in English
* Basic math skills (add, subtract, multiply and divide)
* Availability and willingness to work weekdays and/or weekends
* Access to reliable transportation and posses a valid Liability Insurance
* Have Valid Driver Licenses
* Pass pre-employment drug screen and criminal background check
* Must have the physical strength to maneuver and lift up to 50 lbs, unload and set up equipment (on ground levels or roof).
* Climb ladders that range from 6′ to 32′ height.
* Work indoor and outdoor (under inclement weather, temperature ranging from 0 to 100 degrees)
* Work doing repetitive motion with hands, wrist and with arms above head and shoulders
* Bend, twist and squat to ground level, and/or not afraid to heights working at above level.
* Be able to stand on your feet for long periods of time.
JOB DUTIES AND RESPONSIBILITIES:
* Drive to various work sites.
* Familiar working with basic window cleaning equipment.
* Daily workload will require scrubbing windows, squeegee work, and rolling & unrolling hoses
* Exp. cleaning windows with water-fed poles, long poles, ladders.
* Interact with our clients on a daily basis with courtesy, professionalism and respect
* Maintain a positive attitude, taking pride in your work and provide quality service.
* Maintain clean appearance, and proper grooming.
* Follow OSHA regulations and safety procedures
* Perform other duties as assigned
At $15/hour those window cleaners don’t have it so bad.
From a quick perusal of BLS dot gov, two of the projected fastest growing occupations from 2012 to 2022 are personal care aides (2012 median annual wage: $19,910) and home health aides ($20,820) projected to grow by 48.8% and 48.5%, respectively, to a total of 3 million jobs in both occupations.
And yes, they need $500,000 starter homes!
And don’t move to any of these states!!!
And the result of the high tax states leads to this - the migration of the dem blues to the formerly conservative reds
They should be forced to stay and stew in the corrupt DNC cesspools they created.
$10 hour: Work your fingers to the bone, destroy your back, be available weekends, holidays, or on a whim, pass drug tests, no benefits, no retirement, dehumanization, non-existent job security due to “open borders.”
$25,000,000 per year: Golf every day, never available for, or answerable to, anyone, every day is a holiday, drug user, golden parachute, stranglehold on position, proponent of open borders.
And it enrages you.
Your engagement with enragement is causing your derangement.
And climb ladders to 32-ft? Window cleaner’s ladders are pointed at the top so you can rest it on the aluminum window frame, not the window itself. You climb up the center of the ladder, balanced, and clean both left and right panes. $10/hr? LOL!
remember kids, it’s all about shaping the narrative
‘the federal government is spending nearly $1 million to create an online database that will track ‘misinformation’ and hate speech on twitter.
the national science foundation is financing the creation of a web service that will monitor ’suspicious memes’ and what it considers ‘false and misleading ideas,’ with a major focus on political activity online.’
Time to go back to old fashioned rattle can “misinformation and hate speech”.
If you like your housing bubble, you can keep your housing bubble:
But sadly, many debt donkeys remain in their donkey crater:
If you like your Great Pacific Garbage Patch, you can keep your Great Pacific Garbage Patch
LOLZ if 500 years from now this is how the legacy of 21st century capitalism is remembered, and for mathguy, this is what “infinite growth in a finite ecosystem” looks like
If you like your severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems, you can keep your severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems
No, this is what pollution looks like. Pull your head out of your butt.
‘Warren Buffett has been a vocal supporter of higher tax rates for the wealthy but when push comes to shove the Oracle is all about the bottom line. As you know yesterday Burger King shares soared when word leaked of a potential tax inversion - inspired bid for Canadian donut shop Tim Horton’s. Now it’s being reported that the deal will be funded in part by Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway.’
BH is nothing but a giant tax dodge for one man. Buffet=hypocrite.
Conservations are more than happy to live under the same laws they want for everyone else.
Liberal/progressives/democrats want/expect to be exempt from all the laws and taxes they want for everyone else.
‘live under the same laws’
i hope you’re happy spending taxpayer dollars to pay $60,000 a year to incarcerate inmates (who are mostly black and brown) for marijuana possession under laws passed by family values, law and order, conservatives.
not sure how that falls under grover norquist’s plan to ’shrink the size of government to where you can drown it in the bathtub’, but it’s pretty typical hypocrisy for ‘conservatives’ that support prohibition laws passed a century ago.
i hope you’re happy spending taxpayer dollars to pay $60,000 a year to incarcerate inmates
I’m against pot being illegal, but for the record in my world it would cost next to nothing to incarcerate inmates. Why should they have it better than our finest in submarines? Stack ‘em in like sardines, hot bunk ‘em, crap food, not sweet wood and metal shops and ping-pong and billiards and movies and weight rooms. A nice library and some GED-style teaching is all.
Couldn’t agree more. I can’t stand Buffett.
hes just a puppet
So who’s the sucker(s) buying in at over 202K/share?
Warren Buffett has been a vocal supporter of higher tax rates for the wealthy
Is that personal income tax rates or corporate income tax rates?
Shhhh… we can’t be having any critical thinking here.
And I thought the Dems would be happy to lower tax rates — IF they got rid of those pesky loopholes too. But the corps will never stand for that, oh no. They want their loopholes AND their low tax rates. And they will go overseas anyway.
‘we can’t be having any critical thinking here’
Yeah, a handful of posters, like you and those who agree with you, here have the lock on critical thinking. Now pat yourself on the head and have a cookie.
Buffet is a fraud and a phoney on the tax issue. His giant company is set up to help him evade taxes, personally. All the taxes he can. Then he has the nerve to lecture us about his GD secretary. Run for office Warren. Get in there and make real proposals and get the bills passed. Oh, is that too hard for you? Too time consuming? Don’t tell me you are another one of these billionaires who suddenly knows what’s best for everyone because of your bank account. No, no, the media will sit at the feet of the “Oracle”, for whatever reason, and hang on his every word. “Ooo, look, he’s talking charity, and giving, and nice-nice!” I say B-S! He’s a greedy hypocrite who would sell his pet dog to make a buck, and then not report the income.
Why would Buffett or Soros or any other slimy oligarch seek public office when they own both parties outright and have marionettes like Obama, Bush, and Clinton to do their bidding?
President Obama would have proudly proclaimed Warren Buffett a true patriot in his bailing out of the banking system with expensive loans and his ‘realization’ that those earning more than $1 million should be tax-tax-taxed. However, the “Buffett Rule” appears to have one caveat… if you are making over a $1 billion, you’re good to go with tax-avoidance strategies. In one of his career’s most hypocritical moves Warren “tax-me-more” Buffett has decided that putting his money where his mouth is no longer makes sense.. and is funding $3billion of Burger King’s “tax-inversion” takeover of Canada-based Tim Hortons. Somewhere on a golf course, a Presidential Putter is being snapped across a knee…
Detroit deadbeats cut off again as corrupt DNC-run municipalities run out of other people’s money amidst bankster demands for moar austerity for the proles.
The DNC doesn’t run cities.
Corrupt Democrat political machines run cities, and take their cue from the most corrupt entity of all, the DNC.
Argentina’s peso and economy are tanking but it’s stock market is soaring - coming soon to a crony-capitalist kleptocracy near you.
We have previously explained why the San Francisco market is such an important bellwether of overall liquidity and prevailing economic euphoria, directly supported by not only the Fed’s “wealth effect” printing and the second tech bubble, but also Chinese capital flows out of the mainland and into US real-estate. Which is why the latest update on San Fran housing dynamics should make those looking for the housing inflection point somewhat nervous as said inflection point now appears to be almost a year old.
Specifically, after posting a 25.7% Y/Y increase in home prices last September, as of June the pace of home price increases is precisely half that, or 12.9%, and also a signfiicant drop from the 15.6% reported in May.
Why is this notable? Because the only three previous times when there was such a sharp contraction in the pace of San Fran home price appreciation, either the dot com bubble, the housing bubble, or the European sovereign debt bubble had just burst. For now, we leave what is going on in San Francisco as merely a question mark, because clearly the Fed’s grand “reflation at all costs” experiment is nowhere near over…
‘the san francisco market’
who needs an economy that builds stuff when you’ve got snapchat and flappy birds?
Mexico President Calls For Justice For Immigrants During CA Visit
By BayAreaObserver Follow Tue, 26 Aug 2014, 5:44am
During his visit, Pena Nieto had strong words for U.S. leaders who have taken a tough stance on illegal immigration.
“There are still states that have not evolved so much as California, that still skimp on recognition and, even worse, the rights of immigrants,” he said, according to the Los Angeles Times. “Those who still believe and bet for the exclusion and discrimination or the rejection of diversity … I only have one thing to say: the future, and a very near future, will demonstrate your ethical mistake. Time will show we’re right.”
Mexico’s President Enrique Pena Nieto encouraged Americans to embrace immigrants and provide justice “to those who contribute so much to the development of the American society” during a two-day visit to California that marked his first official trip to the U.S. since he was sworn in nearly two years ago. Pena Nieto was in California for trade talks with Gov. Jerry Brown, who has sought to create close ties with the state’s increasingly influential Mexican population.
Latinos represent the largest racial or ethnic group in California, while Hispanics represented 17 percent of the total U.S. population in 2013, according to Census data. Brown said it was important for California, the most populous state in the U.S., to establish close ties with Mexico.
“In so many ways, together we advance,” he said in a statement released by his office.
My girlfriend has a COEXIST tattoo.
Here’s a comment from a MarketWatch story:
“All this is correct. But there’s another reason why prices will most likely stagnate, if not fall, in the near future: The fastest growing part of the population is the lowest income group. They’re breeding like rabbits, not getting any education, barely learning English ( if at all), and often resorting to crime and/or welfare dependency for income. These people don’t buy homes. Instead they rent and stuff as many of themselves into the houses as possible. Anyone who lives in California knows this all perfectly well.”
Underwater homemoaners are holding back the mythical housing recovery.
B..b..but I thought the market had priced in “de-escalation.”
Having an oligarch daddy worth $9 billion: priceless.
Knowing your oligarch daddy and all of his ilk are literally above the law and can steal with impunity regardless of which country they inhabit: priceless.
As they say, behind every great fortune is a great crime.
The UK financial and political elites (incestuous marriage, that) have for decades pursued a globalist, multiculturalist agenda that has seen the formerly Great Britain turned into a haven for oligarchs parking their ill-gotten loot and Islamists who despise everything western christian civilization stands for. Not surprisingly, TPTB have also maintained a craven, cowardly silence as the newcomers mauraded with impunity.
So now, there’s another aspect of Housing Bubble 2, this time in new single-family homes: dropping sales, swooning prices, and ballooning inventories.
Sales of new single-family homes fell 2.4% in July, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 412,000, the worst in four months, and those four months had been nothing to brag about. While up 12.6% from a year ago, sales have been languishing, as the chart below shows, near the bottom of the range. By comparison, during the housing construction bubble, new single-family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of well over 1,000,000.
The inveterate optimists that economists have become were disappointed. They’d expected a rate of 430,000 sales.
The median price dropped 3.9% from June and almost 6% from May, to $269,000, and was up only 2.9% from a year ago. But hey, at least year over year, it wasn’t a downdraft. Not yet….
So, on a monthly basis, sales and prices are heading south. These numbers from the Census Bureau are volatile and subject to big revisions; hence, by a miracle, sales and prices might reverse course. But over the longer term, and after revisions, one trend is now becoming glaring: the supply of new homes on the market (green line, right scale) rose to 6 months, from 5.6 months in June. It was the highest – and for builders the worst – level since October 2011:
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