September 3, 2014

Bits Bucket for September 3, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




RSS feed

162 Comments »

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 01:51:45

Alameda County, CA Sale Prices Fall 5% MoM; Excess Empty Inventory Balloons Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/09-14/16697/alameda-ca.xls

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 06:52:26

Dude get a boat and live on the river. Stop p@ssing away money on rent.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 06:54:41

Why buy when housing prices are falling?

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 01:54:21

Liberty Lake, WA Sale Prices Dive 16% YoY As Inventory Balloons

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/09-14/22458/liberty-lake-wa.xls

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 01:56:04

Oh my word….

Arcadia, CA Sale Prices Crater 13% MoM; Down 3% On Year And Falling

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/09-14/50749/arcadia-ca.xls

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 01:57:24

Cedar Mill(Beaverton), OR Sale Prices Crash 18% YoY As Housing Demand Collapses To 20 Year Low

http://www.zillow.com/market-report/09-14/30801/cedar-mill-or.xls

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 05:56:38

u r defeated go away

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 06:04:20

Cheer up Poet. Falling housing prices is positively bullish and good for the economy.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 06:51:05

im bullish on your capabilities!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 06:14:08

He’s constantly posting price declines. How is that not a good thing? Are you a realtor?

Comment by ibbots
2014-09-03 06:45:41

Have you ever examined the data in the links compared to the statements in the post?

There’s usually a pretty big disconnect.

Housing anulyst is generally regarded as the village idiot around here. He is pretty harmless and has some type mental disability.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 07:33:36

Doesn’t the one above show an 18 percent YOY decline in sales price?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 07:36:20

Refute the data then.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 09:56:16

That’s right. Silence.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-03 12:32:36

Here is a more complete picture of the data for year-on-year:

Home Value Index: UP 4.1%
Median Value per Square Foot: UP 6.1%
Median List Price: UP 16.3%
Median Sale Price: DOWN 18.5%
Sold in Past Year: UP 2.8%
Median List Price (per square foot): UP 9.1%
Median Sale Price (per square foot): UP 1.8%

Any real “analyst” would conclude that the reason for the Median sale price being down 18.5% was due to smaller homes being sold (since the price per foot didn’t fall).

With a place the size of Cedar Hill (about 8,500 people), the sample size for the month is probably about 20 homes (5.8% of homes sold in the past year, there are probably around 4,000 homes in the area, for an annual total of 232 homes sold)–how many conclusions should you draw from the data?

I’m not refuting the data. I’m just analyzing it.

If this negative data is so pervasive, you should be able to find places with larger sample sizes than 20 sales to prove your point.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 12:54:35

And look who pops out again. Interesting. You’re not refuting anything because the fact that prices are falling can’t be refuted. I’m thrilled you raised the $/ft2 issue because you seem to run from the very issue.

What is included in the transaction to account for the $/ft2 anomaly?

Was a double lot?
A finished basement?
Guest quarters?
Outbuildings?

And when you’re done pulling your hoof out of your mouth on that one, explain how falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels is negative.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-03 13:27:48

lol

You’re making my point. There are a huge number of different factors that go into a house, and thus with small sample sizes, median prices can be distorted based on the particular characteristics of the small sample of homes included.

Your measure (median price) doesn’t correct for any of these differences.

The measure I chose, while not perfect, at least corrects for one key variable–home size. With just correcting for that one variable, your negative result becomes positive.

When you combine that with the fact that all other price indicators show positive year on year movement, it is pretty easy to conclude that the median price data point is distorted in this case based on the small sample.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 14:20:00

You’re making my point. Those transactions were a premium due to one of the factors I noted.

Don’t slither away. Explain how falling housing prices is a negative.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-03 17:19:22

How do you know:

“Those transactions were a premium due to one of the factors I noted.”?

Or are you simply making stuff up again?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 17:46:54

How do you know:

“Those transactions weren’t a premium due to one of the factors I noted.”?

Stand still R. Fraud and explain how falling housing prices is a negative.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 17:59:15

What is included in the transaction to account for the $/ft2 anomaly?

What $/ft2 anomaly?? The clear anomaly in all of the various metrics is the one that _you_ picked, HA: Median Sale Price.

None of the other metrics show a “Sale Prices Crash”, or even sales price decreasing in that market.

Looks like an obvious case of mix-shift.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 17:59:49

And prices are falling.

Your point?

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 18:06:58

And prices are falling.

The price for any given house is not yet falling; at best, Case-Shiller shows house prices are increasing at a slower rate.

Hopefully, it will turn over and they will actually begin to fall soon, though!

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 18:10:51

Really? An 18% price decline isn’t falling?

 
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 18:22:19

Seeing lots of large price reductions. I posted one example this weekend. That doesn’t happen unless prices are falling.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 22:43:22

Really? An 18% price decline isn’t falling?

Mix-shift doesn’t meant that anything is falling, except for the _size_ of houses sold—not the price.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 22:46:12

Seeing lots of large price reductions. I posted one example this weekend. That doesn’t happen unless prices are falling.

No, that happens when volume is falling—the ones smart enough to drop their prices are the ones who close. But they aren’t dropping them far enough to affect price-per-sq-ft yet.

Normally, a drop in volume precedes a drop in price. But HA has been trumpeting this so-called price-drop for almost a year already, and things haven’t really nosed over yet.

I expect it will arrive in reality fairly soon, though.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-04 03:42:36

They’re falling by every metric in CA.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 02:34:21

Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

Comment by jane
2014-09-03 02:45:51

Living in a rental will never feel like you’ve got a 50 lb. millstone affixed to your back when your life raft finally gives up the ghost, 500 yards offshore from a Pacific atoll, and all you’ve got is your KBAR knife clenched between your teeth. Along with your millstone, of course. Where the coral has already cut up your feet, and the sharks are homing in. So to speak.

If I may - get yourself a refresh on the boob job. Plus, your roots are showing. No wonder your sales are down.

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 05:15:37

Rent was due two days ago.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 06:18:05

To the bank, but then throughout the month or year you have Home Depot, the plumber, the AC repair guy, HOA assessments, the Tax Man, the nursery, paint store, back to Home Depot, yada, yada, yada.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Get Stucco
2014-09-03 06:31:43

Owning a home is like having leak in your bank account.

 
Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 06:41:12

owning gives you a chance to build equity. renters are typically unskilled people who have to hire everything out and thus go broke owning. they would rather pay people to do stuff than take on a challenge head on.

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 06:45:07

Buy a home and build equity with every mortgage payment, deduct the interest and property taxes from your federal income taxes, and own a paid off home after thirty years.

Rent for thirty years and have nothing but an empty bank account.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 06:50:03

No Poet. Buying at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing results in a lifetime of irrecoverable losses.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-03 06:55:07

Who stays put for 30 years any more? Or even five?

Rent ’til you know where your going to be able to stay for good. Before that, follow where your career leads. Otherwise you may end up selling $500K starter homes to tattooed 20 somethings working at the local phone bank…

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 06:59:01

Transient renters contribute nothing to their community.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-03 07:04:59

Deadbeat homedebtors can’t keep up their places and ruin the neighborhood for everyone else.

Except the renters of course, who are able to move away.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-03 07:20:19

The troll traffic on the HBB is starting to closely resemble what we saw in 2006, as desperate Realtor™s felt an increasing need to offset a collapsing market with propaganda barrages.

History doesn’t repeat itself, but sometimes it rhymes.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-03 07:23:45

I should add, real estate shills have nothing better to do all day than troll housing blogs. Renters have real jobs and careers calling. c u later!

 
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 07:35:50

Is azdude the same person as Amy Hoax?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-03 07:37:39

“Is azdude the same person as Amy Hoax?”

Hermaphroditic, for sure.

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-09-03 11:57:28

“owning gives you a chance to build equity. renters are typically unskilled people who have to hire everything out and thus go broke owning. ”

Listen to Jerimiah Johnson here.

Actually my landlord pays those people, and they do a damn good job, because they’re pros at it. Would you prefer they sit at home and draw welfare? They have to eat, one way or another.

Even if I did pay them, I make a lot more per hour than they charge. I get to spend the time making money, get quality work done, and they have an income that they actually earn.

I don’t have equity. I have a fat bank account full of instantly deployable cash.

What’s not to like?

 
Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 13:08:28

Quit p@ssing money away on rent!

 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-09-03 14:43:18

Shh… housing analyst has you all wound up hasn’t he? Him with his graphs and charts and sciency stuff.

 
 
 
Comment by Get Stucco
2014-09-03 06:29:50

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzing!

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 06:54:57

Raising your kids in a rental is child abuse.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-03 06:57:14

Raising kids as a realtor is downright torture.

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 07:02:44

Renters shouldn’t be allowed to have kids until they buy a home.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-03 07:07:06

Homedebtors shouldn’t be allowed to have kids until the place is paid off. Which is never, of course.

Realtors should remain on probation with an ankle bracelet for life.

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 09:22:31

That sounds like a sad way to live, always blaming Realtors for your failure to launch.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 09:53:46

Housing prices are falling again.

 
Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 10:24:11

F A I L

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 10:32:07

Home prices are not falling.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 12:56:10

And they’ll continue to fall until they reach early 1990’s prices.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 18:04:36

Unfortunately, Amy is correct on this point, at least for the moment.

I certainly hope that they begin to fall soon, though! (as measured by price-per-square-foot, not median sale price)

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 18:08:38

And you’ll backpedal then too.

Prices are falling.

 
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 18:24:47

I’m seeing houses dropping through the $100 a square foot barrier that has been hard to break in my area for a while. Now, all of a sudden, whoosh.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 22:47:45

And you’ll backpedal then too.

No, I’ll celebrate it—when it actually happens.

 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-09-03 22:48:45

I’m seeing houses dropping through the $100 a square foot barrier

Where? And can you link to data showing this?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-04 03:43:56

Ca, ny, az, or and wa. All falling.

 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-03 07:22:10

I can’t agree, Jane. Living in a rental did feel like a millstone every time the rent went up. FWIW, I just looked up the rent on my old place. Since I moved 2.5 years ago, the rent has increased at least $300/month. If I had remained a renter, I would likely have to take my chances with an individual LL, or move every 2-3 years, to a smaller/crappier place each time. The HBB-promised craaaater has not materialized.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 07:34:57

Donk… your rent never went up and you admitted here back in 2009.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by oxide
2014-09-03 08:42:06

My rent stayed the same for a few years… I think 2003-2006, but then it jumped up again. Then I moved, and it stayed the same for a couple years. Then it jumped again, and again, and then I bought, and then it jumped again.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 09:52:42

Uh huh.

 
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 07:40:52

It’s about time someone here told the truth.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 07:57:18

Agreed. Take an oath never to be a Debt donkey.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-03 08:02:33

oxide
Our rental unit is $250/mo more than we paid for it. $30K/yr for rent vs. homeownership. (So Ca) You have to pay to live somewhere.

On another note, in our city, they are building senior independent living “stack flats” (one story units stacked-new euphemism), but more two-story townhomes units. Some will be lihtc (low income housing tax credit) units. At least Del Webb communities are one-story senior puds. Two-story units for seniors, don’t make sense to me.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 08:41:03

So instead of finding a more affordable rental which are easily available, you threw away your life savings and paid a 250% premium for a depreciating asset at the peak of the bubble.

Priceless.

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 08:51:54

My latest article discusses how there is a shortage of housing for seniors. That means home prices will go up, and when interest rates start to go up, home prices will go up even higher too, so you should buy senior housing today at an affordable price and lock in these record low interest rates.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/aging-population-faces-shortage-of-suitable-affordable-housing-2014-09-02

 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-03 09:18:48

Yup, that’s the direction things are going in. Government can’t allow rents to fall for the renters, because that would the builders of the properties, the owners of the properties, and buyers of the rental-backed-securities. So they allow renters to pay what they can and make up the difference with credits and subsidies. Same thing for buyers too — lots of credits and subsidies and forgiven loans. Before long we’ll all be Soviet, where gov will just issue us housing.

 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-09-03 09:47:26

I’ll start shooting soviets then-soon

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 10:00:22

Your space shot dream isn’t working Donk. Prices are falling.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 05:05:10

Don’t be a DebtDonkey.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-09-03 07:23:52

Another day in the life in mom’s basement.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 04:22:59
Comment by taxpayers
2014-09-03 04:55:48

no worries, bama booty’s HARP FHA, fre/fnm will fix that

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 05:50:47

another cash for clunkers program?

Comment by Get Stucco
2014-09-03 06:33:11

Cash for crapshax.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-03 07:33:08

The article is worse than it seems. It’s not just cars. Subprimes are now financing cars and furniture and appliances and mattresses.

I don’t think we’ll see a bailout for all this.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 09:16:15

anything to get stuff in peoples hands.

 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 04:55:58

Gullability check: to the HBB’s resident Obamba Zombies of 2008 and 2012, do you actually believe the VP of an administration that has exceeded even the Bush administration in kow-towing to Wall Street and and enabling the corporatocracies’ gutting of the American middle and working classes, is actually sincere about”taking back America”? Just curious, as the magnitude of the stupidity of the American electorate or their appetite for snake oil never ceases to amaze me.

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/joe-biden-pushes-union-strength-detroit-labor-day-speech-n193351

Comment by Ryan
2014-09-03 07:16:49

No. Because accoding to Obama and Holder there is a racial animus present in the statement: “Taking back America”. So, unfortunately, the taking back of America is canceled.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 07:38:43

Hope and Change turned to Nope and Rage.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 08:26:11

Hope and Change turned to (was encountered by) Nope and Rage.

And still is.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-03 18:26:37

Is Rio a social justice warrior (SJW)?

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-03 19:49:53

“Is Rio a social justice warrior (SJW)?”

Yes, except when it comes to his own money. OTOH he is very generous with other people’s money. That’s the hallmark of a “progressive.”

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 21:35:57

he is very generous with other people’s money. That’s the hallmark of a “progressive.”

You’re kind of boring. Frankly, cheap moochers say that jive about anyone who accepts taxes as a price of civilization.

You just want to mooch off America for free - A hallmark of a mooch.

 
 
 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 19:32:28

gutting of the American middle and working classes, is actually sincere about”taking back America”? Just curious, as the magnitude of the stupidity of the American electorate or their appetite for snake oil never ceases to amaze me.

Most voting Dems don’t think the Dems are that much different. But they know the Dems are better for the poor and the middle-class than the Repubs. It’s obvious.

Examples? Medicare, Medicaid. Social Sec, ACA, Citizens United, Min Wage Etc.

Our 2 party system is busted flat in Baton Rouge, waitin’ on a train, with a feeling near as faded as my jeans.

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 05:13:36

Long-term unemployment up 85% since 2008 financial crisis (which never went away for the 99%) but hey, Wall Street is booming.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/sep/03/long-term-unemployment-double-financial-crisis-level-oecd

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 05:15:35

What happens when a government - or the Fed - destroys a nation’s currency.

http://www.sovereignman.com/trends/the-morning-after-what-happens-when-a-government-destroys-its-currency-14925/

Comment by Ryan
2014-09-03 07:18:45

It will happen. Either devaluation or repudiation of the debt. As sure as the sun rises it will happen. We are almost to the point where we can’t keep the lights on now. So, shake n’ bake, gringos, time to move.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 08:34:52

We are almost to the point where we can’t keep the lights on now.

Maybe we’ll be OK. And the ACA is helping tame our biggest growth in spending.

“the CBO also suggested for the first time that the federal government may be able to keep growth costs in line with overall inflation, based on requirements set in the Affordable Care Act.”

The ‘Biggest Fiscal Development’ Of The Last 3 Decades Is The Stunning Slow Down In Healthcare Spending

http://www.businessinsider.com/health-care-spending-growth-slow-2014-7

The primary driver of future projected debt and deficits has been the growth of federal healthcare spending, something that has alarmed economists as a wave of baby boomers retires and more people are added to the Medicare and Medicaid rolls.

But over the last four years, healthcare spending has grown at a historically slow rate. Economists credit the Affordable Care Act in part, as well as other reforms. And according to new projections from the Congressional Budget Office, the trend could continue.

In in its annual 25-year forecast of the federal budget, the CBO projected growth of federal spending on healthcare programs will continue to slow at a healthy rate over the next 25 years.

In a startling but continuing reversal of projection, the CBO said Tuesday that the federal government would spend about $250 billion less on major federal healthcare programs than it had forecast in 2010, the year the Affordable Care Act was signed into law.

The CBO’s new projections say federal spending on major healthcare programs — Medicare, Medicaid, the Children’s Health Insurance Program, and federal subsidies for people buying insurance on the new Obamacare-established exchanges — will rise from about 4.9% of GDP this year to about 7.5% in 2035. The latter number is 2.2 percentage points lower than the CBO projected five years ago.

Medicare, in particular, is on an even better path. In 2006, the trustees who monitor the Medicare and Social Security programs said the trust fund that pays hospital bills would be broke by 2018. Now, that trust fund is expected to be solvent until at least 2030, according to the CBO. Overall, Medicare expenditures in 2035 are 2.6 percentage points of GDP lower than the office projected in 2009. Projected Medicare spending is down 35% from five years ago.

Peter Orszag, the former director of the Office of Management and Budget, told Business Insider it’s the equivalent of the “biggest fiscal development” in more than three decades.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-03 09:42:34

It will happen. Either devaluation or repudiation of the debt. As sure as the sun rises it will happen.

When is this going to happen? I’ll need to rearrange my portfolio.

Comment by Ryan
2014-09-03 09:59:25

Did you read the article from the link above?

Better to be a year early than so much as an hour late….

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-03 10:10:53

No, I didn’t. Does it have a date in it?

 
Comment by Ryan
2014-09-03 10:21:02

Really, are you that F’n lazy? Stop being a gimp.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-03 10:37:04

I took a look. Fortunately, the article was short. There was no date, which is typical of the doom and gloom writers. They can keep writing these things forever.

The story about the Mexican government’s decision to allow the value of their peso to fall drastically against the dollar is really not applicable to our situation today. The American government couldn’t make a similar decision on a given morning. Meanwhile, governments around the world, such as China’s, are making great efforts to prevent their currencies from rising against the dollar. In other words, they’re working to keep their currencies weak and our dollar strong.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-03 19:51:22

“Really, are you that F’n lazy? Stop being a gimp.”

Translation: “I don’t know either, and I’m too goddamn lazy to check myself.”

 
Comment by Ryan
2014-09-03 23:18:16

To respond to both of you. Yes there is a date and no it’s my job to answer questions for you about an article that just needs to be clicked once and looked at.

I fail to see how there is a great difference between the Mexican situation and the U.S. aside from Dollar hegemony, which clearly is starting to subside. Once we reaching the tipping point where we have borrowed more than we can finance it would be foolish to expect anything other than severe devaluation dollaror repudiation of the debt.

Again, nobody can pinpoint anything looking forward but you sure will be able to pinpoint it looking back.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rms
2014-09-03 07:34:53

+1 “This is a familiar story that repeats across history. Despite obvious warning signs, people almost universally allow themselves to ignore reality.”

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 05:17:31
Comment by rj chicago
 
 
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-09-03 06:36:03

I thought your article might be going to the fact that General Motors is relying on subprime borrower

“GM is relying on subprime borrowers far more than its competitors, though.

The company’s third-quarter financial report informed investors that “88 percent of the consumer finance receivables in North America were consumers with FICO scores less than 620,” which is the “less than perfect” credit threshold for the subprime market.

Consumer receivables 31 or more days past due, at $1.075 billion, were 34 percent higher than a year earlier. By contrast, Ford’s receivables in that same category dropped by 20 percent during this year’s first nine months.”

http://money.msn.com/investing/post–is-gm-headed-for-another-subprime-loan-crisis

I’m wondering if this business model is the way to go. It’s certainly helping to keep them alive, but how long will this work?

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 06:39:25

is there any reason to have a good credit score? at a certain point in life do you really need credit?

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-03 07:35:41

I’m only 35 and I already think this way - why do I care about credit? Honestly, I can pay cash for anything I need (might be stretching it for a house).

And yet, my credit score affects things like my ability to get a job and the cost I pay for insurance.

It would be nice to find a way to pass legislation mandating a credit score reflect one’s actual use of credit, and not one’s lack of use of credit.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-03 07:39:33

The system is rigged to provide strong incentives for all adults to use credit, whether or not they need to.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-03 07:52:36

“And yet, my credit score affects things like my ability to get a job and the cost I pay for insurance. ”

I never heard of how a credit score could affect how you can get a job or not. If you have zero debt, you have zero debt. What I mean is that you pay off your bills so you don’t have financial stress. That should be regarded as a plus by employers.

Insurance? I don’t know about that. I’m just used to paying what I pay. My company pays my health / dental / vision. I pay for my own long term care insurance and disability income insurance. My auto insurance is about $600 per year and has been going down. It is a perk of having an old car that works well.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-03 08:05:00

FICO scores are illegal to use as an insurance risk/premium data point in some states. California is one of them. Check with your state Dept Of Ins. for status.

 
Comment by drumminj
2014-09-03 09:23:29

California is one of them

Yes, but then I’d have to California, pay a state income tax, and deal with all the crazy legislation that comes out of there (firearm ownership, etc)

 
 
Comment by rms
2014-09-03 12:02:12

“And yet, my credit score affects things like my ability to get a job and the cost I pay for insurance.”

+1 Indeed. You can’t rent a car without credit, IIRC.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-09-03 07:38:09

There you go. Learn to live within your means.

PS. I meant to post this in one of Raymond’s posts.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-03 07:48:22

I don’t know or care what my credit score is. I was late on a couple bills once years ago. But I have zero debt. Can easily buy a house in my Phoenix neighborhood for once sixth of my net worth.

Credit score. It should be regarded as something only a “looser” is interested in. A far better badge is to tell the world “I am debt free!”

now dont tell Liberace. He thinks loans are great.

Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-03 08:14:43

Selfish
You need good credit, even if you are a “transactor”(pays balance in full each mo). Renting a car, an apt, emergencies, etc… Credit is important, abusing it is unwise.

An anecdote, my sister thought the same way, until she became single again, and can’t rent a place to live. She and her daughter are living w/ my elderly mother.

I owe zilch and have an 830 FICO. I play the game well. My CCs are paid in full each billing cycle (transactor).

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blackhawk
2014-09-03 09:51:32

That’s the way to do it. Pay it off every month, skim a few rebate pts/$ and have a good credit score.

It’s relatively impossible for all of us to be able to pay for everything with cash or check. I travel a lot and I choose not to carry $2000 with me every time I go on a long trip.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-03 10:08:54

An anecdote, my sister thought the same way, until she became single again, and can’t rent a place to live.

That’s a good point. The credit score is the kind of thing that a landlord would check before renting a apartment.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-03 10:09:36

My aren’t the debt junkies proud of their enslavement!

 
Comment by drumminj
2014-09-03 11:15:24

That’s a good point. The credit score is the kind of thing that a landlord would check before renting a apartment.

At the same point in time, I’ve found that having cash can make the landlord more comfortable.

Of course, in my scenario I was able to meet the owner in person and chat with him, but offered to show him bank account statements showing plenty of cash available to pay the rent, I just didn’t have a job at the time. I imagine one could also use the same approach to get around credit issues.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-03 19:38:13

Okay. I guess I must have good credit scores. I rent cars lots of times when I’m out of Southern California. And I move to a different apartment every 3 or 4 years.

 
 
 
Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-09-03 16:51:35

The only use I have for credit is to rack it all up and go bankrupt if my situation goes south. I’d never use it if I thought I would be repaying it.

 
 
 
Comment by AZtoORtoCOtoOR
2014-09-03 07:39:43

Sucks to be a municipal bond group owed money by the city of Detroit, while the retirees come out ok in the bankruptcy. Syncora Guarantee Inc isn’t taking this sitting down. I don’t know why they would think they would be paid back the money they are owed at the expense of those receiving pensions.

“The city also gained approval for its cost-cutting plan by striking deals with a number of creditors, some of whom are receiving substantially less than they are owed. But some municipal bond groups still battling with Detroit allege the city’s plan treats creditors unfairly and is contrary to the law.”

I don’t think the law really matters in the politically popular move to support those receiving pensions.

http://online.wsj.com/articles/detroit-to-face-creditors-as-bankruptcy-trial-kicks-off-1409609010

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-03 09:29:22

I don’t think the law really matters in the politically popular move to support those receiving pensions.

So this means we can all choose to ignore the laws when convenient, right?

I don’t really feel like paying my taxes - it’s too much money. I’d rather take that trip to Vegas, so tax law doesn’t apply to me this year, k? thx!

Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-03 09:52:48

It appears the that the litigation will go on for some time. It’s too early to say that the law doesn’t matter.

Comment by AztoORtoCOtoOR
2014-09-03 14:17:51

It will be interesting as to what the law really is when this case goes before the SCOTUS (my prediction) in a few years.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-03 08:54:21

Is it perhaps a coincidence that the subprime outfit for appliances is called Conn’s. Me thinks not.

http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/subprime-nation-at-conns-inc-booming-sales-bought-with-busted-credit/

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 10:38:50

Does it really matter? They can just print more paper to make up for losses.

The currency we have is a social contract. If all the currency in america was destroyed would it matter? It is easily replaced with a printing press or computer.

We have the resources. Its how you manage them.

People get a do over in our society.

 
 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 09:14:56

This might be good because the election is next month. The “leftists” did a good job the past 12 years but it might be time for a change here. I’m rooting for the candidate on the right, Aecio Neves. (But politically, it’s really not much of my business. I’m not Brazilian)

Brazil’s slump hits job market as election approaches

https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/24789963/insight-brazils-slump-hits-job-market-as-election-approaches/

Many of Brazil’s biggest retailers, homebuilders and carmakers are cutting jobs as Latin America’s largest economy teeters on the edge of recession, a fresh blow to President Dilma Rousseff’s re-election bid.

For years, low unemployment was key to Brazil’s emergence as an economic power and important gains in the fight against poverty.

The unemployment rate remains near record lows of around 5 percent and the leftist Rousseff regularly touts it as a success of the ruling Workers’ Party over the last 12 years.

But after a decade of good news, the labour market is showing signs of weakness, possibly depriving her of a trump card in the October election.

Comment by Little Al
2014-09-03 14:18:32

It seems the writing is on the wall that Rousseff is going to lose this election. For my stocks, i’m kicking myself. I sold PBR stock about 6 months ago with a tiny profit and it has gone up about 35% since then all because getting Rousseff out theoretically will be better for that stock since she uses PBR profits to bribe her constituents in Brazil.

Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 19:36:14

I sold PBR stock about 6 months ago with a tiny profit and it has gone up about 35% since then all because getting Rousseff out theoretically will be better for that stock since she uses PBR profits to bribe her constituents in Brazil.

I know. Sorry. But most everything’s like that here. Brazil is one of the most complicated, obtuse “Western” countries in the world.

It’s different here.

Comment by Little Al
2014-09-03 20:49:52

Yes, but the giant will someday awake. There’s as much a future in Brazil as in any other major area in the world.
Probably a real chance to bloom. Visiting the upper reaches of the Amazon is high on my bucket list. What are your favorite spots? I’m sure you know so much that I couldn’t possibly guess at.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 21:47:49

What are your favorite spots?

My favorite spots are Rio and close around here - and the North East coast. My favorite people are the Paulistas. My favorite food is from Minas Gerais and I like those people a lot too. The Gauchos from the south are a different group but when they stop being suspicious, they rock. Everyone going to Brazil should go to Rio and Foz do Iguaçu if they are looking for spectacular geographical beauty. I’ve never been to the Amazon but I hope to go someday.

Brazil has great potential. But they need to solve their serious corruption problems and be more diligent and accountable and invest seriously in healthcare and education for the masses and not just for the rich and white (richer) folk. But they’ve made great progress the past 20 years for sure.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
Comment by Little Al
2014-09-03 14:22:21

That article blames the baby boomers for the 2008 Great Recession. Yes, they were stupid, but all the media was geared towards overspending so the basic premise of the article is false.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 14:25:50

“Two boomer presidents — George W. Bush and Barack Obama — pushed the national debt from $5.6 trillion in 2000, or 55% of GDP, to $18 trillion today, or 103% of GDP.”

How Long Ago Is a Trillion Seconds?

1 million seconds = 12 days
1 billion seconds = 31 years
1 trillion seconds = 30,000 years
(give or take a decade or two)

If a person’s salary is $40,000 per year it would take:

25 years to earn $1 Million
25 Thousand years to earn $1 Billion,
25 Million years to earn $1 Trillion

Comment by azdude
2014-09-03 16:09:43

scary numbers but people dont care. they figure we can just print more to pay it off.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-03 19:46:29

In 1985 my first job, I was earning $22,500 (I remember the exact amount) per year my first year. I never ever thought I’d cross over $1 million at that time. I did not really care. I was 26 and was a student earning $0 too long and lived with my folks too long. Should have kept the first $1 I ever earned.

It would take 44 years, 5 months and 10 days to get to $1,000,000.

But the fallacy of this of course is that you have to pay taxes and you have to spend some of the money. Also compounding annual average gains of stock index funds and salary increases greatly change the dynamics.

So no wonder after 30 years of working we can look back and say “I never knew at that age my net worth could be this high now without winning a lottery or starting a successful business. But here I am.” You can probably say that if your wages kept up with inflation - and hopefully surpassed them, and if you kept dollar cost averaging into stock index funds.

Comment by Little Al
2014-09-03 20:52:30

You did it the right way. You were conservative but steady.
And steady does it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
Comment by cactus
2014-09-03 11:54:35

Co-worker is getting offers on his house in Camillrio it was open house last weekend. 10% over ask and the buyers attached photo’s of their kids. Buyers getting down payment from mom who is in Leisure village.

Mom I need money its for your grand kids. This is quite common around here a generational wealth transfer .. probably the last one

Comment by AmazingRuss
2014-09-03 11:58:46

They’ll need that extra room when mom can’t pay the rent at leisure village any more.

 
Comment by rms
2014-09-03 12:10:22

“Mom I need money its for your grand kids.”

+1 Hehe.

Of the peeps I know that are still in California probably a third or so were either given or inherited a house outright, and that’s in San Jose area too.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2014-09-03 13:52:41

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-chooses-nevada-battery-factory-190155567.html

Reading the comments section below the main article. Many comments negative directed towards CA. hmmm

Comment by AztoORtoCOtoOR
2014-09-03 14:19:53

I guess they need to keep the battery factory in northern Nevada since Las Vegas may run out of water in a few years.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 14:16:51

Baby Boomers face big housing crunch

By Melanie Hicken @melhicken September 2, 2014: 6:05 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)

America’s Baby Boomers are facing a serious housing crunch, with many expected to struggle to afford their homes come retirement.
By 2030, the number of adults age 65 and older will more than double to 73 million, according to a report by the Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies and the AARP Foundation.

And many of these retirees will need to put so much of their income toward housing — more than 30% — that they will have to cut back on other expenses like transportation, medical care, even food, the report found.

A big part of the problem: many Baby Boomers will enter retirement with less savings and more debt than previous generations.
A growing number of seniors are carrying mortgage debt into retirement, with more than 70% of younger Boomers ages 50 to 64, and 40% of those age 65 and older still owing money on their home in 2010. Even worse, they owed even more money on their loans, which is putting many older Americans in a “financially precarious” position, the report found.

Meanwhile non-housing related debt among the 65-plus crowd climbed from an average of $4,300 in 1992 to $7,200 in 2010, mainly as a result of credit card and auto loan debt.

Adding to Boomers’ burdens, less money is expected to come in. Over the next decade, the number of households age 65 and older living on less than $15,000 a year — below the poverty level for a two person household in 2014 — is projected to grow by nearly 40%.
Related: Why many retired women live in poverty
The authors of the report argue that the government isn’t doing enough to help low income seniors. In 2011, just one-third of low income seniors who were eligible for federal rental assistance received any assistance at all.

The report recommends a variety of fixes, including property tax relief for seniors, increased federal rental assistance and improved programs to help seniors “age in place” in their homes, instead of in costly institutions.

Comment by goon squad
2014-09-03 17:53:48

The future belongs to Lucky Ducky.

 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2014-09-03 19:16:18

‘A big part of the problem: many Baby Boomers will enter retirement with less savings and more debt than previous generations.’

To lessen that, it will be like trying to turn around a destroyer the way the clock is ticking.

 
Comment by RioAmericanInBrasil
2014-09-03 19:42:45

many of these retirees will need to put so much of their income toward housing — more than 30% — that they will have to cut back on other expenses like transportation, medical care, even food,

Wow. Here’s a different “crazy” idea. They’re going to have to cut back on housing too.

 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-03 15:03:20

Hmm……Gotta love the spin that Toll puts on this one.
And they aren’t called ‘Toll” for nothing - costs alot to cross the housing bridge me thinks!!!

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/09/03/luxury-builder-toll-brothers-sees-lofty-prices-turning-off-buyers/?mod=WSJBlog

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 17:30:42

BORDER AGENT RETALIATED AGAINST FOR SPEAKING TO MEDIA

Federal agency relying on intimidation tactics to silence potential future whistleblowers

by ADAN SALAZAR | INFOWARS.COM | SEPTEMBER 3, 2014

A U.S. Customs and Border Protection agent has been disciplined after talking to the press concerning the total lack of security on the nation’s southern border.

Ron Zermeno, a Border Patrol union representative working the San Diego sector, was one of the few field agents willing to comment on the recent illegal immigrant surge prior to a federal gag order prohibiting agents from speaking to the media.

In letters obtained by National Review Online, the agency claims Zermeno disclosed to news outlets that the Border Patrol was “understaffed,” and that sending more illegals for processing in Murietta, Cali., would leave “no agents patrolling” the border. He also disclosed general information regarding the number of immigrants sent to different facilities and how many were in quarantine.

Zermeno subsequently received a letter back in July charging that he committed “unauthorized disclosure” of operational information, and that he “failed to follow instructions” when he passed supposed “law enforcement sensitive” information to the media, which the feds claimed compromised their activities.

“Your failure to follow instructions negatively affected the agency,” the proposal posited. “Your actions not only put the agents involved in those operations at risk but also the detainees.”

A follow up letter shows the agency made good on their proposal.

“Your actions constituted a breach of your duty to safeguard sensitive operational information disseminated to law enforcement personnel only,” wrote Assistant Chief Patrol Agent Kathleen Scudder to Zermeno last month. “Therefore, this action is necessary to impress upon you the seriousness of your actions and deter you from such future misconduct.”

Zermeno’s punishment apparently consisted of merely placing a copy of that letter in his “Official Personnel Folder for a period not to exceed two (2) years,” and a warning not to do it again.

A senator who had worked with Zermeno in the past told National Review he saw no problems with the information the agent spoke on.

“We’ve reviewed, and I’ve reviewed his comments, and I don’t think he has released anything that would violate law-enforcement sensitivities,” Oklahoma Republican Senator Tom Coburn said. “I can’t see what he released that would have done any harm, but I’m willing to keep an open mind to that. I just don’t see it. I think he’s a good American who’s done the right thing.”

Furthermore, Coburn asserted agents should “have a right to speak with Congress and/or the Inspector General” and that reprimanding such behavior created a “culture of retaliation.” He revealed as much in a letter to Department of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson in July, in which he wrote:

“I have recently learned that some of these individuals fear retaliation for speaking with my office. This is unacceptable… A culture of retaliation continues to permeate throughout DHS, specifically the Border Patrol, and I ask that you work with me to correct this. Viewpoints and information from individuals should not be thwarted.”
These are “literally the guys with the lantern saying ‘the British are coming,’ right? You want to embrace their criticism to be a better department,” Coburn says, adding that the move was an intimidation tactic. The feds are “almost treating this as a test case where they want to sort of strong-arm, overreact, to make all other people who are thinking of coming forward hesitant.”

Indeed, the slap-on-the-wrist reprimand’s lack of teeth suggests the agency is more interested in sending a message to potential future whistleblowers, and not so concerned with the “sensitive” intel Zermeno supposedly revealed.

The federal government’s “culture of retaliation” apparently extends to members of the press as well.

Last July, Infowars reporter Kit Daniels received a certified letter from the US Defense Department after reporting from the Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio. The letter absurdly claimed Daniels had engaged in “unauthorized photography and broadcast” which was somehow “detrimental” to the “safety and security of the installation,” despite that Daniels was merely carrying out his role as an inquisitive journalist and reporting in the public’s best interest on how taxpayer monies were being used to house the influx.

News of the agent’s punishment comes on the heels of a Judicial Watch report revealing an imminent threat posed to the U.S. by the terror group ISIS emanating from Ciudad Juarez, which sources warned was “coming very soon.”

 
Comment by goon squad
2014-09-03 17:50:57

Region VIII checking in.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 18:52:53

Keeping our heads on and avoiding fruit bats in Region IV

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 18:29:53

“there is no one to endorse.”

“The current crop of political candidates range from downright horrible to only wanting to use us for our votes to absolutely delusional.”

CONNECTICUT GUN RIGHTS GROUP CALLS CANDIDATES ‘DELUSIONAL’
Pro-Second Amendment group Connecticut Carry endorses no one

by CHRIS EGER | GUNS.COM | SEPTEMBER 3, 2014

Calling the contenders for office in the state this November “downright horrible,” and “absolutely delusional,” pro-Second Amendment group Connecticut Carry is endorsing no one.

This news came Tuesday following signs that another gun rights group in the state is endorsing Republican gubernatorial candidate Tom Foley in a run up to moving Democrat Gov. Dannel Malloy from office. Malloy, who signed a draconian set of gun control legislation into law following the 2012 Newtown School shootings in the state, is now facing those laws as an obstacle on the campaign trail.

“As our members know and we communicate regularly, we will not be endorsing candidates for the 2014 election,” read a release from the group Tuesday. “One of the primary reasons for this is that there is no one to endorse. The current crop of political candidates range from downright horrible to only wanting to use us for our votes to absolutely delusional.”

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 18:39:53

It’s good that groups that care about restoring the republic and constitutional rights are starting to call out GOP as well as DNC candidates, in cases where both are worthless. Voting “none of the above” or write-in candidates is an idea whose time has come.

 
 
Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-03 18:49:54

Gladys Knight & The Pips- Midnight Train to Georgia

ALL COMMENTS (664)

Elmen Ortiz2 months ago

THE FIRST TIME I EVER HEARD THIS SONG WAS WHEN I WAS 10 YEARS OLD, WHEN I FATHER TOOK ME TO ROSCOE’S CHICKEN WAFFLES BACK IN 1988. I WILL NEVER FORGET THAT DAY ON THE CORNER OF SUNSET & GOWER. THE LAKERS WON THE CHAMPIONSHIP THAT SUMMER AND GAS WAS 90 CENTS A GALLON. IT MAKES ME THINK HOW MUCH BETTER AMERICA WAS ESPECIALLY IN LOS ANGELES

InfinityReptar1 month ago

I LIKE TO YELL TOO. YELLING IS FUN.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IdfZnWsps34 - 401k -

Comment by goon squad
2014-09-03 19:45:40

Recommend: Otis Redding live at the Whisky-A-Go-Go

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 18:53:49

Despite all the free ECB “stimulus” flowing to the EU’s banksters, the real economy continues to languish, which means deflation - people sinking deeper into “austerity” mode have to slash their expenditures, which brings about deflation. Which horrifies Goldmanite “technocrats,” profligate governments, and those who took on irresponsible levels to debt to buy overpriced houses or other bubble assets.

http://www.businessinsider.com/draghi-may-not-be-able-to-deliver-whatever-it-takes-to-save-the-euro-2014-9

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 19:11:37

The UK government appears to be belatedly waking up to the fact that while it was cravenly following the mandates of the City of London banksters, the increasingly alienated and neglected population was reduced to succession or voting for anti-establishment parties to get out from under the current establishment plutocracy.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-yes-vote-would-trigger-an-economic-earthquake-claims-danny-alexander-9709677.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-03 19:13:35

The Tan Man need not have any fear of consequences or accountability for his role in the massive fraud that created the housing bubble.

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=229368

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-04 17:08:53

phony scandals

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post