A Decade Of Boom, Bust And Boom Again
A report from MarketWatch. “Jim Reid and his strategy crew at Deutsche Bank spent over 100 pages this week examining the ‘near two-decade rolling series of inter-related bubbles’ that have characterized our financial lives. We’ve sure been on a hot streak, between the Russia and Asia in the 90s, those crazy dotcom kids in 2000, the speculative housing bust in 2007, and more recently signs of a Chinese credit bubble. Their conclusion: this trudge from one bubble to the next may be making its way to the final frontier. That frontier is the bond market.”
“Here’s the Deutsche treatment: ‘The worry is that there is nowhere left for this bubble to go given that it is now in the hands of the lenders of last resort (governments and central banks with regulators ensuring other large captive buyers). Although we think this bubble needs to be maintained to ensure the solvency of the current financial system, the best case scenario is that it slowly pops over time via negative real returns for bondholders. The worst case scenario being future restructuring.’”
The Sydney Morning Herald. “One of Australia’s most senior bankers believes global financial markets may face a “meaningful” correction similar to the 1994 bond crash, because aggressive monetary stimulus is inflating asset bubbles. Rob Whitfield, the chief executive of Westpac’s institutional bank, warned that bubbles were forming as global investors took on more risk in search of higher returns. Mr Whitfield said central bank moves to stimulate growth had created ‘a wall of liquidity,’ which had in turn triggered a global hunt for yield reminiscent of conditions before the 1994 bond crash.”
“Historically, he said asset bubbles had ‘largely arisen during periods of ultra-accommodative monetary policy, combined with sustained periods of low interest rates and an ever-increasing supply of money - sound familiar?’”
The Mercury News. “After a red-hot start to the year, the Bay Area’s housing market is heading toward a fall and winter hibernation that should be easier for buyers battered by frenzied competition for a scant supply of homes for sale. Some real estate agents in the East Bay said they were beginning to see price reductions as sellers realize they have missed the big buying season. Laura Wucher with Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate, said she’s seeing more homes being listed just as the market is slowing. ‘A lot of people have listed their houses too late, and it’s taking a lot longer to get offers,’ she said.”
“Jennifer Branchini, president of the Bay East Association of Realtors, said she’s seeing more houses with ‘price reduced’ on them. ‘When I see seven to 10 price reductions in a day, I think it’s a sign the market’s calming down’ in the East Bay’s Tri-Valley area, Branchini said.”
The Los Angeles Times. “The latest sign that buyers are gaining leverage in Southern California’s housing market: Price cuts are back. The number of homes with reduced asking prices has risen sharply in recent months, a reversal from last year’s sellers’ market, when list prices seemed more like a floor than a ceiling. These trends have been building all year. But home sellers — often the last to see market shifts — are finally getting the message, said Paul Reid, a Redfin agent in Temecula.”
“‘A lot of what we’ve seen over the last six or eight weeks is people lowering their prices to get buyers in the door,’ Reid said.”
“David Silva, a veteran agent with Ricci Realty in Orange, has watched as the number of homes for sale in that Orange County town ballooned from about 100 in early 2013 to about 270 today. With more competition on the market, some of his clients have had to cut prices to drive up interest. He’s heard stories from colleagues about would-be buyers walking away from contracts when they found a better house for less money.”
“Some sellers — those with less motivation to move now — are pulling their homes off the market, said Steve Shrager, an agent with Coldwell Banker in Studio City. Sellers who can’t get the price they want are choosing to rent their home, or try to sell again in another year. ‘They feel the price can’t go anywhere but up,’ Shrager said.”
“After two years of bidding wars and big price run-ups, some sellers have yet to come to terms with reality, said Steven Thomas, chief economist at Reports on Housing, which tracks the Southern California market. After a decade of boom, bust and boom again, many aren’t sure how to react to a normal market. ‘People are not used to this,’ he said. ‘That’s why you get some panic. Eventually these houses will sell. You just have to be patient.’”
From the MN article:
‘Raj Singh and his wife sold their Pleasanton condo at their asking price of $875,000 in two days in July.’
You’re almost there Raj, don’t blow it!
‘Then, after several weeks of looking, they noticed the market was slowing down. “By the second or third week we could see people were flexible on the pricing,” he said. Eventually, they paid $1.7 million for a Pleasanton house originally listed for $1.89 million.’
“I sold at list price and bought at a discounted price,” he said. “It all happened within a 45-day time frame.”
Ah, dang it Raj. Well, don’t throw away those boxes.
Sounds like Raj bought his own Garage Mahal.
I slay me….
I know of more than a few Indian Bay Area couples who have million dollar plus mortgages.
They can run back to India if the bubble collapses, and leave US taxpayers holding the bag (thanks to the Fed).
Or if they run up $100-200K in student loans become a doctor here move to india and practice
‘million dollar plus mortgages’
Uh, you mean they didn’t pay cash? I was told everybody paid cash. There’s no leverage, they can hold out. Rental Watch is fond of this one. It’s all these cashed up rich people buying these multimillion dollar houses who are under no pressure. No walking away could possibly occur. It’s different this time.
People with cash don’t pay triple the face value for a house.
Dumb borrowed money pays any price.
No. The leverage is different. Not all buyers are cash, but there are no buyers to speak of who are borrowing 100% on a $1MM+ home (and don’t point out people who are using margin for the down payment…that’s different–the stock will be liquidated before the house).
Liar loans are gone.
Option ARMs are quite limited.
“Piggie Back” loans are not around.
My statement is simply this:
Last time around, leverage was VERY aggressive. And despite that VERY aggressive leverage, the crash in the Bay Area was muted.
This time around, leverage is much less aggressive, and so when the next downturn comes (and it will come), the crash in the Bay Area will be even more muted.
False.
3% down is available to anyone. HELOC’s are everywhere an no the bay area wasn’t muted. It lost 35%. And it will decline larger this time. It’s already begun.
Remember… current asking prices of resale housing in the bay area is 6x construction costs(lot labor material and profit).
When I’m thinking through possible outcomes, I do make an effort to be as objective as possible. Here’s a couple things; this isn’t really just another cycle. It was too short. Two years up to near bubble highs (in some cases past it). Housing cycles last longer than two years, so to me that’s more indication it’s the same bubble. Second, (funny how so many say, “last time”) what happened after the previous peak was interrupted. Four trillion just from the Fed, the GSE’s got zombie status, all of that. We can’t really make a comparison to something that didn’t play out to a natural bottom. So, will we resume and finish the correction that was underway? Can the worlds central banks print trillions more and make people start gambling on houses again? Interest rates are already artificially low. IMO, Yellen and the others have made a huge blunder with rates, and are out of ammo just when they’ll wish they had some.
And then there’s the state of the various global bubbles. China - falling. New Zealand/Australia, teetering. India - already down and falling. Canada, falling in all but a few major cities. London, panic is spreading. A disaster is coming in Turkey and Dubai, and it’s no secret. Singapore, falling. Malaysia, headed down. Brazil, the same. Etc. But the real summer surprise to me is the almost simultaneous slowdown and or reversal in so many US metros. We went from crazy times to Oh Sh*t in a very short period. That is also more like what you’d expect in a bubble. A lot is going to depend on how these various situations play out in time and in relation to each other. Australia for instance is going to get body slammed by what’s happening in China. Something similar could happen with the bay area, Vancouver and London.
Another issue I’ve noticed; people are way more complacent now. I even see it here on this blog.
After so much time, crazy does start to feel normal. I think that was the aim of the monetary policy. They know they can’t prop it up forever, but if they can change the perception of value for the next generation, that will work too.
Unfortunately, that generation is so screwed by college debt and lack of opportunity, it doesn’t matter what they perceive. They just don’t have the cash to carry the new suburban home for very long.
More and more headlines cropping up about price cuts coming to a sinking housing market. I smell fear - is that you, Amy?
http://www.businessinsider.com/price-cuts-are-coming-back-to-the-housing-market-2014-9
‘They feel the price can’t go anywhere but up’
I wonder where they got this idea? So Jingle Mail, there aren’t any subprime loans, you say. “It’s not 2008″ (trademark) or whatever. But still, somehow these odd ideas are back in the news. And people are acting on them. Risking huge amounts of money.
Do two years of rising prices and hoopla really make so many participants believe trees grow to the sky? Or is it the same bubble, just briefly interrupted and now crashing again?
I’m a big fan of spaghetti westerns. I’ve been finding a bunch of older, lesser know films in the genre lately. I noticed a recurring theme. A gunfighter is waiting for something, a train maybe. It hot, still, he’s sweaty. And there’s this fly; buzzing around, bothering the gunfighter. A banjo slowly plucks. He waves at the fly, puffs at it. Finally he nabs it, just as the train whistle blows, or some other scene change appears. This reminds me of that, because we just saw this movie! How many similarities does it take? Bidding wars. Camping out. Love letters to sellers. Stupid delusional stuff like “house prices always go up!” Jiminy Freaking Jehoshaphat, what does it take to see this is a bubble!
Ben, we may well be brothers from a another mother.
The low interest rates allow the high prices, as it is the combination of rate and price that leads to the monthly payment (e.g. 10% on 100 dollars is 10 dollars a month; 4% on 250 dollars is 10 dollars a month).
Add that to the fact that the private mortgage finance market doesn’t exist anymore, after the bubble, and you have the makings of massive distortions in the market.
The last bubble was driven by bad debt. This is driven by ultra low interest rates plus total government and central bank support of the mortgage finance market.
Low interest rates causing asset bubbles? Say it isn’t so. Government and central bank shouldering the entire mortgage finance market, like Atlas? Hmmm.
Amusing that the masters of the universe in the financial sector - the godworkers - think they’re Atlas, but they’re really the ones being supported by the taxpayer and the Aunt Janet’s printing press.
‘The worry is that there is nowhere left for this bubble to go given that it is now in the hands of the lenders of last resort (governments and central banks with regulators ensuring other large captive buyers). Although we think this bubble needs to be maintained to ensure the solvency of the current financial system, the best case scenario is that it slowly pops over time via negative real returns for bondholders. The worst case scenario being future restructuring.’
Why can’t the bubblers of last resort keep reflating bubbles indefinitely?
There’s this temptation in the human mind to think something that goes on for years is perpetual. Unstoppable. I’m reminded of Alexander and his army. For a long time, they marched and conquered. This same army nearly died of thirst and hunger trying to get home. They could crush dynasties, cross continents, but couldn’t act outside of the laws of nature. The central banks haven’t overturned gravity.
Interesting how natural law can be obscured… temporarily. What’s funny is the diversionary games people play to avoid acknowledging it.
u cant live in a stock. Do u have a mobile home?
You’re enraged AZ._Fraud.
What cant go on forever is “the search for yield”.
The money managers and retirees and investors will soon have to learn is that we have been living in a dream world for the past 7 years. There has been no REAL income or growth. It’s been funded by the FED and petrodollars. In reality, the S&P should be at 800 and the housing market 40% below where it is now.
This will create a lot of pain for US homeowners and pension holders.
This pain should have already been felt and absorbed by the average US citizen but “kicking the can” became a mantra in modern politics (the FED being an arm of the Party in charge)
Anyway, Have a nice day!
Alexander’s army was unbeatable in battle because they had a secret time keeping device that allowed them to attack on different fronts simultaneously. No other army could do this. The secret was a dye that changed colors in exactly so many hours. The different commanders wore a cloth soaked in this dye and when it changed color they attacked immediately from all directions.
It was called “Alexander’s rag time band”.
The most amusing thing is that the policy makers don’t understand the nature of currency (*gasp* dare I question Nobel Laureates? Yes, I dare).
Currency represents something tangible in the real world. It is, among other things, a unit of effort of those that obtain and use it. A unit of work. This has escaped policy makers. It is the most basic logical construct in the financial world, and the one closest to reality.
It’s funny money to Wall Street, who sits near the printing press. Funny money is the only way you get a 300 dollar Denny’s meal in Manhattan. Krugman et. al. may think it’s just a grand thing, these bubbles, but for the people doing the actual work, not just those taking the skim (the godworkers of the financial sector) they’re not such a great deal.
The thought that manipulating the money supply could somehow bring prosperity is absurd. I mean, if that were true, Haiti could just manipulate its currency to mold itself into an economic powerhouse.
The response typically is to say that the printed money was to offset bad debt which reduced the money supply. Bad debt didn’t reduce the money supply. It was just a transfer of wealth from imprudent lenders to debtors to those from whom goods and services were purchased.
The typical claim is that debt is a backdoor way to print money. But the problem here is that the debt must be paid off lest the overzealous money printing spark a downward spiral in the currency’s value. So, the debt hangover exists, which the policy makers (the central bank) seem to ignore, and to which they respond that yet more debt must be generated. Brilliant. It certainly benefits their associates.
Realizing bad debt of course, would leave the lenders holding the bag, and the Central BANK would brook no such thing. The heads of “regulatory” ( and I use the term oh so loosely) agencies were typically top executives in the industries they “regulate” (Monsanto executive is head of the FDA; Cable lobbying association head is the head of the FCC; Top mortgage executives have been head of FHA; and on and on and on). They’re not planning on remaining government employees indefinitely - they’re returning to their industries in short order. Elizabeth Warren talked about the influence of just one company - Citigroup - in the government. It’s just a matter of time before a fifth column becomes head of the CFPB. A top Citigroup executive is second in command at the Fed (Fischer).
Through this lens, the seemingly absurd policy choices being made today become that much clearer.
Also Housing Analyst sucks.. HE/SHE lives on copying and pasting meaningless links and irrelevant stats and undeniable platitudes. While I agree with 100% of Housing Analyst’s premises and conclusions, the way HE/SHE derives them is amateurish, foolish and contrary to the cause of enlightenment that this message board is about.
Again, have a nice say!!!!! And for all you lurkers and readers of this blog who think the same as I, now is the time to chime in…
Stick with the data. Don’t take it personal.
see, people think your a shyster
enraged
And I don’t mean to berate HA (Loser), but I think Housing Analyst (L) is a LOSER. I think HE/SHE at this moment, is living in HIS/HER parents basement in HIS/HER underpants/panties trying to sound important, when, in fact, HAL is nothing more than a parrot, a mimic, who apes what HE sees on TV or reads on the internet.
Don’t take it personal. Stick with the data.
L O S E R
Data AZ._Fraud data!
geez. layoff HA already or he’ll move to Oil City & vanish.
Also, who thinks that this rigged game we are now experiencing will, in the end, come back to haunt the 1 or 2 percent who hold and trade stock and own and trade real estate.? Do I hear crickets chirping? These people will have gotten their yield and moved on to ” “pick your scam” yield o’ the day” proffered by unscrupulous wall street denizens. The people who will be screwed are wannabes who buy these assets at the wrong time because the institutional investors will have long since bailed. Another reason it’s hard to jump a rung in the USA ladder. Thanks Barack
If you’re in debt, you’ll get taken to the cleaners.
default
I think the re-inflation of housing had allot to do with institutional investors, now they are turning to sellers.
“in the end, come back to haunt the 1 or 2 percent who hold and trade stock and own and trade real estate.?”
it could but they will get bailed out
Panama City Beach, FL Sale Prices Crater 9% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_MedianSoldPrice_AllHomes.csv
18 reasons why the housing market will tank (according to the Commerce Dept home ownership rates are at 1995 levels and falling):
1. If you need to move for work you’re screwed. No longer do people work for the same co for 30 years.
2. Well paying jobs lost in the Great Recession have been replaced with low wage/part time jobs. 73% of ‘new’ jobs are in the bottom of the wage pyramid and temporary employment positions rather than permanent (Bureau of Labor Statistics; Reuters).
3. The only people who have done well are those who already had money - Blackstone can only buy so many and Blackstone’s acquisition pace has declined 70 percent from its peak in 2013 (Bloomberg).
4. Plus why would you want to have a 30 year obligation on a potentially depreciating asset? (Upkeep alone costs 1 to 4 percent of a home’s value annually - US News and World Report)
5. Houses historically cost 2-3 X the median wage (Forbes), that would mean the median house price should be 1/3 of what they are today. Everything eventually reverts to the mean. I remember when they said housing could only go up. If you think they can’t go down again because they haven’t yet you’re drinking the kool aid or wishing hard cause you already own property.
6. Mulitgenerational housing is up and increasing (The New York Times). In Italy, for example, 50% of unmarried children live at home. In most countries it’s the norm. It used to be normal in the US and will be again. No one wants to live with their parents or have their parents live with them, but there is no other option.
7a. Demographics part A - The fertility rate in the U.S. is now 1.9 and dropping (replacement level is 2.1). The only reason our population is still growing is due to poor immigrants (Pew Research: Social and Demographic Trends). Do you really think they will buy houses during this generation?
7b. Demographics part B - The “Promised” home buyers - Millennials - are the first generation in the modern era to have higher levels of student loan debt, poverty and unemployment, and lower levels of wealth and personal income than their two immediate predecessor generations (Gen X and Boomers) had at the same stage of their life cycles. (Market Watch)
7c. Demographics part C - 67% of men and 57% of women between 20 and 34 – the prime-childbearing years – are not now and have never been married (US Census Bureau). Get married, have a kid, buy a house is becoming Live Free (single), get a dog/cat, share an apartment. While the #1 reason people state they are buying a house is to “have a good place to raise children and provide them with a good education”, the people who are actually popping out most of the babbies are the poor (google birth rate by family income) and do not represent viable pool of potential buyers.
8. Over a trillion in student loan debt is weighing on potential first time buyers (Forbes).
9. Baby boomers are starting to die off. All those primary and vacation homes will hit the market. High supply + low demand = lower prices. Do you really think the boomers kids will be rich enough to pay these inflated prices for a house??? Their parents are spending their inheritances on their own retirement (Urban Land Institute).
10. Foreign buyers purchased $92.2 billion worth of real estate in the period from April 2013 to March 2014 (National Association of Realtors), but this is quickly slowing as the world economy tanks (Goldman Sachs).
11. The Robots are Coming (thinking long term, say 5-10 years, probably shorter than a mortgage). 50% of the cost to build is labor. There are now 3D house printers that can print a house in steel and cement while leaving openings for plumbing, electrical, windows and doors. Efficiency of
design also means less materials used (CBS News; University of Southern California). This should drop construction costs by almost 40%. Old houses are becoming outdated. Plus new houses will be safer in an emergency, with better thermal properties and amenable to being “smart”. Want a new “smart” house or an old McMansion with Chinese drywall and shoddy construction? http://www.businessinsider.com/3d-printed-houses-are-here-2014-9
12. HAMP reset. The Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP), started with the housing crisis in 2009, allowed homeowners to modify their mortgages and decreased interest rates to as low as 2% (Freddie Mac).
13. For current owners, selling and buying again means financing at a higher interest rate so that even if they paid the same price their payments would be higher. So much for the move up buyer.
14. The Trend is NOT real estates Friend. Home ownership rate peaked in 2005 and has dropped EVERY single quarter since then (US census Bureau). (Funny, it kinda parallels the chart for the percent of the working age population that is employed).
15. Cities/counties (and states) are getting desperate for money as they need to pay pension obligations. Houses = property taxes. We will be seeing these increase as time goes by. Think you own it? Try not paying property taxes. Think the landlord will just roll the increases into your rent? Do you know how many underwater home owners trying to hold on rent out there houses for LESS than it cost them to keep them because it’s all the market will bear?
16. Jobs are less stable and the future job market less predictable. It is estimated that between robotics and software up to 80% of current jobs will be replaced over then next 2-3 decades (i.e. - before your mortgage is paid off your likely to find yourself among the long term unemployed) (Pew Research Center). If your job is to create robots or the software that replaces the humans you can probably ignore this one. Oh, and don’t even get me started on globalization.
17. As we transition to an 20/80 society, those who have income generating assets will do well, everyone else probably not so much (Martin HP, et al.). If you can buy and still have assets to invest in income generating revenue streams it might be okay. On the other hand, it you have to tie up the majority of your wealth in housing it’s probably not a great idea.
18. Degentrification is on the rise. You might have bought the house in a nice area but it’s not guaranteed to stay that way and in more and more places it’s not (Brookings Institute).
Re #6: Mulitgenerational housing is up and increasing (The New York Times).
This could be good. When I was a kid, many of our family members had apartments in the same building. (We used to talk to each other through the dumbwaiter.) Even though my mother worked, we had more than one relative to go to if you felt like company immediately after school.
When we got older, it felt a little tight, so we got our own places (and NYC housing was expensive even then.) But I think the earlier benefit of having so many family members around us were many.
The rest of the list is unnerving.
Devastating summary of the reasons real estate must soon go back down.
Not mentioned (unless I missed it): Interest rates cannot stay at historically low levels forever. And when they go back up, unless accompanied by a sufficiently large offsetting increase in employment and wages, U.S. households will not be able to afford current Echo Bubble prices, as more of the monthly will go back to the bank as interest.
http://www.reddit.com/r/personalfinance/comments/2gbnyz/my_landlord_wants_to_sell_me_the_property_i_live/
If banks are going to stop getting the juice, the stocks have to
go through a 10 percent correction.
Scottsdale, AZ Sale Prices Plummet 6% YoY As Housing Demand Collapses To 20 Year Low
http://www.zillow.com/scottsdale-az/home-values/
‘Korea has had three financial crises over the past 20 years. First, the Asian currency crisis hit in 1997-1998, the result of reckless lending to large companies. Korea escaped from the turmoil by injecting taxpayers’ money into debt-ridden companies.’
‘Then in early 2000s, the nation had a credit card crisis. The government loosened the rules on credit cards to bolster private spending, and card companies rushed to attract customers regardless of their credit ratings and income.’
‘This caused serious consequences for the entire economy and the financial markets by creating many credit delinquents and bankrupting some card companies.’
‘Most recently in 2008, Asia’s fourth-largest economy went through another turbulent period triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage meltdown. Foreign capital left the country en masse and the won collapsed. Local banks’ high exposure to short-term external debt was the main culprit.’
‘Although the three crises have different causes, they have one thing in common: the root cause was a mixture of reckless lending and excess deregulation aimed at keeping the struggling economy afloat.’
‘Unfortunately, few lessons seem to have been learned, with the government seemingly heading down the same old path. Strategy and Finance Minister Choi Kyung-hwan, who took office in July, has placed top priority on boosting the real estate market. In early August, his team eased the rules on mortgages, such as the loan-to-value ratio (LTV) and the debt-to-income (DTI) ratio.’
‘The rules were introduced after the 2008 global financial crisis, in a bid to prevent more households from being over-leveraged. On Sept. 1, the government announced more deregulation. The Bank of Korea (BOK) led by Governor Lee Ju-yeol cut the key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.25 percent on Aug. 14, the first reduction in 15 months. It froze the key rate on Friday, but another rate cut is widely expected this year.’
‘Korea’s mortgages have continued on an upward spiral. According to the Bank of Korea (BOK) Thursday, the outstanding balance of home-backed loans at banks jumped by 4.6 trillion won in August, the largest monthly gain in 20 months. A recent OECD survey shows that Korea’s household debt has risen 8.7 percent a year since the 2008 crisis.’
China Jan.-Aug. housing sales down almost 11%
By MarketWatch
Published: Sept 14, 2014 7:31 p.m. ET
BEIJING–Housing sales in China in the first eight months of the year fell 10.9% to 3.43 trillion yuan ($559 billion), according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics issued Saturday.
Sales in the first seven months of the year were down 10.5% from a year earlier at 2.98 trillion yuan.
…