September 18, 2014

Bits Bucket for September 18, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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Comment by Simiwatch
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:16:06

So what is the average pay for a police officer there?

 
Comment by salinasron
2014-09-18 06:36:23

This is what is going to break the back of CA. Peace Officer retirement. Under the Ventura decision (9th circus court) all uniform allowance, overtime, etc counts toward retirement salary. Retirement was and should only be based on base salary. I don’t know if it still stands but retirement was also based on your one year high pay (total).

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:44:56

Public pension rock meet Prop 13 hard place.

Comment by scdave
2014-09-18 07:08:16

Public pension rock meet Prop 13 hard place ??

Why ?? Real estate still gets taxed….It just does not get re-assessed until there is a new sale so ultimately over time most real estate gets re-assessed at new and higher valuations….

Why is it that you think “real estate taxation” is the cure for pension commitments ?? Is it a revenue problem that should be born by real estate owners ?? Why should not everyone participate in curing the “underfunded” pensions ??

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Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 07:32:48

Why? Because it is a pool of untapped money. They’ll raise taxes on everyone sure, but this is a place where there is money to be had. That is why people love it, because they know that they probably should be paying more. An accident of timing has one person paying much higher taxes than neighbors who bought only a few years before despite houses now being valued exactly the same.

Do the taxes go up under Prop 13 when the property is refi’d based on a new appraisal? Shouldn’t they?

“Over time” is too long a period. They need that money NOW.

 
Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 07:55:39

The only working people who can afford Real estate in CA are public workers.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 08:18:41

Considering the rising defaults and the massive excess empty and defaulted housing inventory in California, nobody can.

Worse yet, nobody wants to given the fact that housing demand has fallen for years in CA.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 09:56:08

SC Dave–over many years following Prop 13, a greater and greater percentage of state revenues are coming from income tax, and less and less coming from property tax.

Prop 13 has created a big hole (and it’s getting worse).

 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 10:50:18

It will get worse before it gets better, but all those baby boomers who stayed in their homes for 25 years will eventually die and someone will buy the house at a new evalution. I would expect a new infusion of taxes at that point. Problem is, it won’t come in time to pay all these pensions … because the pensioners are the same people who have been in those 25-year houses and haven’t died yet and are still drawing a pension.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-09-18 09:13:42

but this is a place where there is money to be had ??

No it isn’t…It passed on a referendum it must be overturned on a referendum so there ain’t no money “to be had” because a overturn referendum is DOA so you need to come up with another alternative…

Just giving them more money to piss away on ?? Well, on pensions maybe….

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 10:24:46

Prop 13 is a disaster. It’s just another tool the Baby Boomers are using to financially f*ck their kids.

 
Comment by Overbanked
2014-09-18 10:59:42

I wouldn’t put the blame for Prop 13 on the baby boomers - that was passed in 1978.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 11:55:29

Since the baby boomers were born starting in 1946, I’d say they are very responsible. That would mean 14 years worth of them, born between 1946 and 1960, were able to vote when that was passed.

 
Comment by rms
2014-09-18 12:13:47

Older baby boomers caught all the breaks

By John Waggoner, USA TODAY
In a generation as sprawling as the baby boomers, you’re bound to notice some big differences. And the main difference is probably this: The older boomers, exemplified by the 62-year-olds who will start retiring this year, occupy a demographic sweet spot that most younger boomers can’t match.

The first of the baby boom generation — those 79 million people born from 1946 through 1964 — are just starting to reach the age when they can tap Social Security.

HOUSING: As baby boomers retire, home markets will hurt
DAY 1: Boomers’ eagerness to retire could cost them
DAY 2: Health insurance poses challenge for early retirees
DAY 4: Avoid pitfalls in managing your retirement fund
DAY 5: Reverse mortgages aren’t for everyone

And those older ones got all the good toys:

•Cheaper houses. A boomer born in 1946 who bought her home in 1976, at age 30, would have paid about $39,300, according to the Census Bureau. That’s equal to $145,200 now, adjusted for inflation. By contrast, a boomer born in 1964 who also bought his first house 30 years later would have paid $130,000, or $174,000 in inflation-adjusted dollars.

•Better retirement benefits. Early boomers are more likely to have a traditional “defined-benefit” pension from their employer than younger boomers are, notes Ron Gebhardtsbauer, senior pension fellow for the American Academy of Actuaries. Unlike 401(k) plans, traditional pensions require no contributions from the employee; all money comes from their employer. Older boomers qualified for “great pensions at a young age,” he says, in addition to 401(k) accounts, which arrived later.

About 39% of all private-sector employees were beneficiaries of traditional pension plans in 1980, according to the Employee Benefit Research Institute; that figure fell to 18% by 2006, the last year for which figures are available.

Traditional pensions guarantee a payment for life, even though the value of that pension typically diminishes because of inflation. But younger boomers generally have only 401(k) retirement savings plans. And they’re likely to live longer than older boomers, thereby facing a higher risk of running out of money before they die.

•Superior investment returns. A boomer who started investing in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index 30 years ago would have received a 12.95% average annual return, according to Lipper. One who started investing 20 years ago would have earned an average 11.8% a year. The difference in return might not seem like much. But it’s huge over time. If you invested $100 a month in the S&P 500 starting 30 years ago, you’d have $329,000 now. If you started 20 years ago, you’d have $74,500. Sure, you’d have put in $12,000 less, but you’d need an average annual return of 14.4% for the next 10 years, or you’d need to put in a lot more than $100 a month, to catch up.

•Better jobs. By the time younger boomers joined the workforce, their numerous older brothers and sisters had already filled many of the jobs, which meant that younger boomers had to work harder to find jobs.

By contrast, when David Jones, 62, entered the workforce, he says, many of his co-workers were much older, and lots of entry-level positions were available.

“I came in young, and in some ways, I was able to work my way up the ladder a little faster,” says Jones, a part-time professor at South University in Savannah, Ga.

And, notes Susie Cooke (above, left), a 61-year-old retiree from Tampa, companies were more likely to provide their employees with good benefits when she first started working.

“By the time I retired, workers were just another piece of property,” Cooke says.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-18 13:32:33

Since the baby boomers were born starting in 1946, I’d say they are very responsible. That would mean 14 years worth of them, born between 1946 and 1960, were able to vote when that was passed.

Voter turnout tends to be low among those under 30, especially in a year without a presidential election. Homeownership is low among people under 25. It’s not likely that baby boomers made up a large portion of this voting in favor of the proposition.

 
Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-18 20:21:06

“I wouldn’t put the blame for Prop 13 on the baby boomers - that was passed in 1978.”

I was 19. I voted for it. If I had to do it all over again I would vote for it - same content of the bill. That was when I thought I was a Republican but a year later became the radical libertarian that I am now.

 
 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 09:54:28

I think retirement should be based on a blended, inflation adjusted calculation of salary over your career.

If you were a lower rank for 25 years (and paid into the system based on that salary), and then were captain for the last 2 years of your career, you shouldn’t get your retirement based on the captain’s salary.

It should be based 25/27ths on the lower rank salary (adjusted for inflation), and 2/27ths based on the captain’s salary.

Instead, we get people getting retirement calculations based on selling years of saved up vacation and sick leave in their last year of service (and then getting close to 100% of that for the rest of their lives).

And that’s how a pension system bankrupts a state.

Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 16:20:37

Yes, and I also think that if a retiree works for a state, they should be required to reside in that state during retirement OR allow the state to take a portion of the retirement. No more working in high-cost Northeast and earning a high pension and then running to no-tax Florida with a pension based on a high cost of living.

If a retiree wants to live low-cost, they can find a low-cost house in the state where they worked. And yes you can find low cost housing in every single state except DC.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 19:42:06

“I think retirement should be based on a blended, inflation adjusted calculation of salary over your career.”

Like Social Security pensions?

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Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 21:40:33

I’d be OK with something like that, but it’s not what I had in mind.

I simply think it’s ridiculous that a person could:

1. Make $25k for each of 30 years (ignoring inflation), and pay into their pension system based on that salary;
2. Then make $100k for the last 5 years of their career (and pay in for those 5 years based on the $100k); and
3. Have their pension calculation based on 35 x 2% (or whatever) x $100k = $70k per year forever.

With the government picking up whatever the pension fund didn’t have paid into it.

It should be 30 x 2% x $25k + 5 x 2% x $100k = $25k per year forever.

And before people get upset about $25k, it’s just an example–and in this case, it happens to turn out to be the amount that the person earned for 30 of 35 years of their career.

 
 
 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-18 12:09:04

We live in Simi Valley. Wow, are they overpaid. I love seeing 2-3 patrol cars for one low level/demand incident, like a car accident with no injuries. Makes we wonder if we could thin out the force.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 15:50:10

Send a couple of fire trucks too.

Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-18 18:14:35

Shillow
Someone (on HBB) the other day said the Fire Truck is an EMT (Ambulance) vs. Paramedic (Fire Dept) thing. I agree, most of the time it’s a waste of resources.

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Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 20:45:11

It’s a jobs program.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 01:57:57

Never trust a Realtor, they are liars and thieves

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 01:58:38

Tumwater(Olympia), WA Sale Prices Plunge 9% YoY As Sellers Head For Exit

http://www.zillow.com/wa/home-values/

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 10:26:53

Again, your chart shows prices UP year over year!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 11:20:23

What enrages you so about falling housing prices?

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 11:50:03

I actually LIKE falling house prices. But I hate all liars, not just REALTORS. And you’ve just constructed another strawman argument to try to misrepresent myself and my views, because that’s really all you have. I’ve been here since 2006 and am a housing bear, but I like the truth, not propaganda designed to misrepresent reality. You’ve lowered yourself to the ranks of REALTORS and mortgage pimps. You are no different. You’ve destroyed your credibility.

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 11:47:17

The Zillow site is a JOKE. It shows conflicting information, but I finally found where you are looking. You have to click “data table” and “cities.” You should link to that, or at least reference it, rather than linking to something which shows the opposite of what you are saying.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 11:52:06

Oh, and since you like to cherry pick, on that same data table it shows Snoqualmie, WA prices UP 21% year over year. So what say you to that, Mr. LIAR?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 12:21:25

You seem more enraged than ever.

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 12:38:33

Answer to it. Your chart shows house prices up. Stop the obfuscation, and answer up. We’re waiting!

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 12:41:04

prices are falling. Get over it and get on with your life.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 15:20:19

Oh my word…

Yelm, WA Sale Prices Crater 14% YoY As Housing Demand Plummets Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/yelm-wa/home-values/

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 02:01:08

Remember….. Houses are depreciating assets no different than cars. They cost you money every day you own it.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 11:58:03

Except when you sell them for double or triple what you paid.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 12:13:56

Nnnope. And don’t forget to calculate your losses to depreciation.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 12:40:23

I do not own a house, strawman. Answer to your lies. Your charts show prices up. Answer to it!

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 12:47:04

housing has always depreciated and always will.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 02:02:16

Bellingham, WA Rental Rates Plunge 9% As Inventory Balloons Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/bellingham-wa/home-values/

Comment by redmondjp
2014-09-18 11:12:14

I’ve noticed, HA, that most of the decreasing values you are posting are in the outlying areas (or ‘boondocks’ as I learned as a kid). I like the data presented on The Tim’s website for what is happening in the greater Seattle area:

http://www.seattlebubble.com

His data also shows that things are slowing down as well.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 11:22:49

Theyre all falling. It’s a matter of duration. Larger cities in CA are posting declines before outlying areas.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 12:01:00

On the same chart you link to, house prices in virtually all Seattle areas are UP year over year. Conveniently, you cherry pick something out in the boondocks which is down year over year, when most areas are showing huge increases. If we are to believe the data tables you quote as the gospel, prices are UP. But you won’t acknowledge it. You are like a lying REALTOR, resulting to distortion and obfuscation. If one were to believe your lies, then there would be zero acknowledgment of the damaging re-bubbling of prices.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 15:01:45

What does it matter when housing demand is collapsing?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 12:03:07

You do a disservice to true housing bears. When you resort to lies and spinjive, it provides ammunition for lying REALTORS, etc. to say “look, those housing bears are liars.” You are like a cancer within the ranks which needs to be radiated.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 14:56:01

Want a cookie?

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:11:55

There isn’t so much “true housing bears” as people in search of the truth, wherever that leads them. Lies obstensibly in the service of “our” side are still lies, and all liars need to be called out regardless of their motivation.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 15:27:18

Indeed. The data is the data.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 16:14:33

And the truth is the truth. No matter where it leads.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 16:38:58

That’s right. No matter how painful.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 16:48:39

“Indeed the data is in the data.”

Indeed, so why are you lying?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 17:52:58

Prices are falling and it enrages you.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 18:47:40

Strawman with no answers. You cannot answer, so you resort to misrepresenting others. You have nothing. I like falling house prices, I don’t own a house, but I like honesty. You’re the resident blog LIAR.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 18:51:14

Oh dear….

Woodland, WA Sale Prices Plummet 10% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/woodland-wa/home-values/

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 21:11:49

Oh my word…

Bellevue, WA home values skyrocket, sales prices UP 22% year over year.

http://www.zillow.com/bellevue-wa-98005/home-values/

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 21:15:31

Woodland, WA population: 5,500

Bellevue, WA population: 150,000 (Seattle’s largest suburb)

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-18 21:21:48

‘Oh my word’

39.7% Listings with price cut.

OMW Indeed.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-18 21:32:00

“39.7% Listings with price cut.

OMW Indeed.”

Oh, I agree. I’m just playing his cherry-picking game, from the very data tables he’s pulling from. This is all unsustainable, but to ignore the massive price increases over the past year and to insinuate that prices have fallen through the floor is disingenuous, and minimizes what’s really going on.

As much as I want prices to get hammered through the floor, and oh how I do, I like to keep my eyes and ears open and actually watch and acknowledge what is transpiring, which is a massive dead cat bounce fueled by global cheap money. I feel supremely confident that there is a massive meltdown coming, but to say that prices have already cratered is a lie.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 23:02:01

“…to say that prices have already cratered is a lie.”

As anti-matter is to matter, so is HA to Realtors™.

But I frankly am fine with his cherry picking of the data, as there is such a massive positive bias in the MSM-sponsored real estate propaganda barrage that it seems refreshing to see someone take the exact opposite approach.

The FBs are going to eventually find they got stucco, anyway, so why not help them out a bit by getting them to think about selling before panic time?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 02:05:21

“there is such a massive positive bias in the MSM-sponsored real estate propaganda barrage that it seems refreshing to see someone take the exact opposite approach.”

…. and there it is.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 04:16:06

From yesterday:

—————
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-17 07:55:31
Yesterday’s Wall St. Journo iterated a similar look on major corporations (AAPL, XOM etc.) performing stock buy backs over the last several years in order to prop up bottom line numbers. Article is worth a read.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-17 08:29:52
do u have a link? thx
————–

A goog of wsj brought up several articles, but here is one. Nice charts:

Companies’ Stock Buybacks Help Buoy the Market
By Dan Strumpf 2014 7:24 p.m. ET

“Corporations bought back $338.3 billion of stock in the first half of the year, the most for any six-month period since 2007…

Companies with the largest buyback programs by dollar value have outperformed the broader market by 20% since 2008, according to an analysis by Barclays. “There are a couple of reasons why companies do buybacks,” said Jonathan Glionna, head of U.S. equity strategy at Barclays. “One is that it seems to work; it makes stocks go up.”

http://online.wsj.com/articles/companies-stock-buybacks-help-buoy-the-market-1410823441

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-09-18 05:27:08

It’s the miracle of easy credit at low interest rates. Borrow money to buy stocks and the price for everyone else rockets up. Works great in the short term if you’re a top manager with stock options. When interest rates go up the game will stop and the stock prices will collapse. Too bad for the stock holders who are outsiders, their dividend will be forever bled with the debt service.

In some ways it’s the same when a debt donkey borrows long to buy a house. Makes housing more expensive for everyone else. The difference is that the CEO has cashed out his stock options and left the outsiders with the debt. The house debt donkey has only caused short term bleeding of renters or cash buyers. When the market crashes the house debt donkey is stuck with the debt service.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-18 05:39:44

exactly

What I think is curious is that investors seem to think the company insiders care about shareholders. shareholders are the first to take the losses when sh@t hits the fan. Eventually they will get your money.

Invest in your own company or yourself.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 05:42:53

That’s right. Invest in your personal savings. You’re going to need every penny you can get your hands on.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 05:44:45

Great analysis and analogy to housing. As you suggest, the CEO gets to cash out options at the market peak and pass the devalued hull of a company onto the shareholders (aka bag holders).

By contrast, after the crash, a debt donkey (aka homemoaner) is the residual claimant on the collapsed asset value plus thirty years of debt service payments. Small consolation: The homemoaner gets to party hardy for a few years on his HELOC proceeds before the piper needs to be paid.

Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 08:45:21

Keeping with the analogy, who is the housing equivalent of the CEO who dumps the stock? Cash investors? Shadow inventory?

And still, few people take the condition of the house into account.

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Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:21:01

What will cause interest rates to rise?

They ain’t gonna raise them willingly.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-18 07:39:34

exactly in order for that to happen bond prices would have to tank. The FED has been buying bonds like crazy suppressing rates. I guess you could say when they quit buying but theoretically it could continue for a long time. They say there gonna stop QE eventually but whats to stop them from doing more if there is a big bond selloff?

The interest on the national debt could get out of hand if rates go up. You never want to eliminate your host.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 08:21:41

Theory and reality are different world’s and the reality is the Fed is pushing a rope while hanging from one.

Hold onto your cash and stay out of debt. You’ll be glad you did.

 
 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-18 08:38:04

That is the one that I was referring to - thanks - I had a hard copy of WSJ that showed this and left it on my commuter train heading to work - yep I am still one of the few - heading to work on public transit!!!

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 05:10:52

Any thoughts on why stocks wavered and gold dropped on yesterday’s Fed meeting announcement?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-09-18 05:32:40

In case you hadn’t noticed, gold has been in a stumble for exactly three years.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 05:46:07

Fair enough…I suppose it is just part of a trend.

That said, it seems like the day when the Fed returns interest rates to normalcy looms ever closer in the minds of investors.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 05:49:21

I see clear evidence of an inverse relationship: Stronger dollar, weaker gold.

Breaking News
Jobless Claims in U.S. Decline to Two-Month Low of 280,000
Tweet TWEET

Gold Falls to 8-Month Low in New York on Fed Rate Outlook
By Nicholas Larkin and Glenys Sim
Sep 18, 2014 4:51 AM PT

Gold declined to an eight-month low in New York as the Federal Reserve increased estimates for interest rates. Platinum touched the lowest level this year.

The dollar reached a 14-month high against the euro today after Fed policy makers raised their median estimate for the key rate to 1.375 percent at the end of 2015 versus June’s forecast for 1.125 percent. Higher rates reduce gold’s allure because the metal only offers investors returns through price gains, while a stronger dollar typically cuts demand for a store of value.

Gold halted a 12-year rally in 2013 as the U.S. central bank prepared to cut monthly asset purchases, which it did for a seventh time yesterday. The metal is heading for the first quarterly decline this year amid signs the U.S. economy is strengthening. The drop has kept bullion’s 14-day relative strength index below 30 since last week, signaling to some traders who study charts that prices may be poised to rebound.

“The Fed seems to be slowly preparing the markets to gear up towards an eventual monetary-tightening cycle,” Abhishek Chinchalkar, an analyst at Mumbai-based AnandRathi Commodities Ltd., said in a report today. “We may see some bargain buying in gold at these levels, but we reckon that any rallies are unlikely to be sustained as we head closer towards an eventual end to the ultra-accommodative monetary stance in the U.S. ”

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 06:08:30

Dot plot shows Fed will be quick about raising rates, once it starts
September 17, 2014, 4:48 PM ET

Once the Federal Reserve begins raising rates, it’s likely to raise interest rates at nearly every meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee for two years, according to the dot plot released by the Fed today.

The federal funds rate is now between 0% and 0.25% and is likely to remain there for a “considerable time,” the Fed said Wednesday. But by the end of 2017, the majority of the committee expects the fed funds rate to rise to around 3.75%.

The Fed usually raises rates in quarter-point moves. That means the end game of 3.75% is 13 rate hikes away.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:29:17

Why would they be raising rates now right when housing is starting to collapse?

Wouldn’t this bankrupt the government and crash the stock market? Why would they do this?

Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 08:00:25

Why would they be raising rates now right when housing is starting to collapse?

Wouldn’t this bankrupt the government and crash the stock market? Why would they do this?”

they won’t its like Japan here all deflation with no jobs.

First half of my life all inflation, second half all deflation.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 08:26:28

I think the plan is to repeatedly tell people they are going to do this, then postpone the timing. That way the stock and real estate markets can keep riding up the endless series of expectations shocks.

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Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 06:54:36

I call BS on the Marketwatch article, as does every other poster in their comment section. By now, it’s pretty clear that the markets and banks are driven by interest rates and interest rates only. ISIS, Ukraine, China, Greece, Scotland, consumer data, or any other factor which is remotely tied to the fundamentals of providing a good or service — they all produce barely a blip in the DOW. But if Lady Fed lets slip a wrong word about rate hikes, the market collapses into a corner and begs her to stop. Two years, my a$$. She can’t raise rates for two months.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 07:35:09

Me and Oxide agree, I have to rethink my position. ; )

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Comment by scdave
2014-09-18 07:12:25

Once the Federal Reserve begins raising rates ??

USA raising interest rates while every other country in the world is lowering theirs or keeping them near zero…

So, the real question is what will happen with money flows if rates of return on safe T’s are significantly higher than rates of return anywhere else in the world…??

Comment by azdude
2014-09-18 07:51:18

If interest rates went up do you think the govt could afford to keep paying interest on the debt? I’ve heard if rates went up a little that the interest payments could be a trillion a year. They only bring in somewhere over 2 trillion in taxes.

The way the treasury seems to pay debt off is to issue new bonds to pay off the old maturing bonds. if rates were to go up substantially then they would have to get more revenue somewhere.

The FED has them where they want them. Loaded up with debt.

It reminds me of a credit card balance transfer offer. As soon as you take the bait the 0% eventually runs out and then they quit offering you the low rates and you are stuck at 20%.

The longer rates are low the more debt is racked up by the govt. The FED is like the drug dealer.

At some point the interest will get too much, they will have to default or come looking for a lot of revenue.

I think at some point the FED will test the markets to see what happens. Can the rest of the market keep buying bonds to support low interest rates? If rates go up too high and the economy slips badly then they will step in and buy more bonds.

The FED wants to keep the game going.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 08:24:51

A dollar borrowed is two dollars owed regardless of rate.

Let the rates spiral up.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 05:27:06

Because pigmen gonna pig, with a little help from the Fed

“The top 3 percent of households claimed 30.5 percent of all income in 2013, up from 27.7 percent in 2010 … the recovery erased nearly all of the decline in the top-earners’ share that occurred during the “Great Recession,” while nine out of 10 families not only didn’t experience a similar comeback but fell further behind”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/charles-lane-the-feds-interest-rate-policy-may-have-fed-income-inequality/2014/09/17/6f1a4f5e-3e90-11e4-9587-5dafd96295f0_story.html

There is no “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes

Not today, not tomorrow, not ever

 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 05:33:16

Congress needs to give more free sh*t to the Free Sh*t Army

“If Congress does not extend the law retroactively, Attorney General Eric Holder says, hundreds of thousands of underwater owners could be hit with tax burdens they may not be able to handle”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/realestate/as-congress-returns-tax-breaks-for-owners-with-underwater-loans-remain-uncertain/2014/09/10/a651bd90-3788-11e4-9c9f-ebb47272e40e_story.html

Maybe they should have thought about that before putting the jetskis and the wife’s new t*ts on the HELOC

Comment by azdude
2014-09-18 05:41:34

Would the FED still buy govt bonds after a bankruptcy?

 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 05:47:47

This is a Drudge Report link and was not written by real journalists

“A law enforcement bulletin obtained by FoxNews.com warned that Islamic State fighters have increased calls for “lone wolves” to attack U.S. soldiers in America in recent months”

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/09/17/law-enforcement-bulletin-warned-isis-urging-jihad-attacks-on-us-soil/

Your narrative has been scripted

Whip the badge lickers and uniform fetishists into a frenzy of fear, then let helpful folks like William Kristol and Lindsey Graham run with the narrative

I heard that magnetic ribbons help too

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:30:45

More overtime, more personnel, bigger budgets, more toys.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-18 07:36:16

Yesterday you wrote that it’s real journalists who script the narrative. So now the unreal journos are getting in on the scripting.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 07:51:45

Because they get paid, Fox News are technically “covered” or real journalists

http://www.infowars.com/feinstein-youre-not-a-real-journalist-unless-you-draw-a-salary/

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 05:47:52

warmists get paid to warm

Question: What percentage of global warming is going into the oceans as opposed to land?

Answer: 93.4% Source IPCC
———————————————————————————-

“Why would we want to fund a group of folks who are nefarious and give us incorrect information? It’s beyond me.”

U.S. to kill funding for the IPCC?
Posted on February 19, 2011 | 383 Comments

by Judith Curry

Rick Piltz at Climate Science Watch reports that the U.S. House of Representatives votes 244-179 to kill funding for the UN IPCC.

The Republican majority, on a mostly party-line vote of 244-179, went on record as essentially saying that it no longer wishes to have the IPCC prepare its comprehensive international climate science assessments.

A statement from the Congressman who introduced the bill:

Leutkemeyer: The international panel the last year or two has been funded at the rate of about $12.5 million per year. The President has it in his 2012 budget at $13 million a year. This group has been in the headlines for their activities with regard to how they are trying to tinker with the data they put out. Why would we want to fund a group of folks who are nefarious and give us incorrect information? It’s beyond me.

Rick Piltz’s take on this is that “the know-nothings are in the saddle.” As Piltz further notes, “The Senate can put a stop to this.“

Marc Morano at Climate Depot writes a lengthy article on this issue. Apparently Rep. Leutkemeyer read aloud a report of more than 700 dissenting scientists that was prepared by Morano in 2009. An updated version of this report (which includes 1000 dissenting scientists) can be found here.

I rate a paragraph in Morano’s article and report, which he fortunately accompanied with the disclaimer “Note: Curry is not included in the count of dissenting scientists in this report.”

JC’s take: My first question is to wonder about what the $12.5M of U.S. funding actually pays for? Not the science, but presumably publication and distribution costs of the documents, staff to maintain the websites and manage the review process, etc.? What portion of the total IPCC costs does the U.S. support? I have never actually seen a budget before for the IPCC.

judithcurry.com/2011/02/19/u-s-to-kill-funding-for-the-ipcc/ - 551k -

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 06:03:45

warmists gonna warm whether they’re getting paid or not

and if those warmists make you angry, here’s a good way to show them who’s boss

http://www.businessinsider.com/conservatives-purposely-making-cars-spew-black-smoke-2014-7

trailer hitch plastic testicles not included

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:26:28

Roll Coal Roll

R A W H I D E Opening Theme - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AKC8pSFg1Vw - 183k - Cached - Similar pages
Sep 17, 2011 … 1959-1965 Rollin’ Rollin’ Rollin’ Keep

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:53:53

“warmists gonna warm whether they’re getting paid or not”

Planetary Sheep don’t get paid.

 
 
Comment by real journalists
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:35:21

Here’s a better one that has Clint Eastwood as Rowdy Yates. Who woulda knew?

Frankie Laine-Rawhide - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a-CFpiszqA4 - 344k -

 
 
Comment by oxide
2014-09-18 08:42:48

This is an article from 2011. Anyway, it took me less time to goog for the budget than it took the author to complain about never seeing a budget. Got Lucky with “IPCC budget 2014.” As I suspected for all these governing bodies, much of that budget is for meetings. Loads of “experts” use taxpayers as their own personal travel agency. Lots of back-slapping, glad-handing, how’s-the-wife, recycled presentations with 3-year-old data, “discussions” and of course, “poster sessions” and “networking breaks.”

Poster session and networking is code for donuts and coffee (and, if your conferences include a trade show with corporate sponsors, you get designer pastry and Perrier too). They can’t use the words “donuts and coffee” in the meeting planning because that red-flags as “food” on gov issued credit cards.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 15:26:35

“This is an article from 2011″

That was a response to Rio’s from last night that said…

Question: What percentage of global warming is going into the oceans as opposed to land?

Answer: 93.4% Source IPCC

 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 05:57:30

file this under colorado = the next california

‘four out of 10 denver county residents are living in a state of financial vulnerability, with almost no savings to cover emergencies or plan for the future’

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/finance_etc/2014/09/over-40-of-denver-ites-couldnt-live-at-poverty.html?page=all

there is no ‘pent-up demand’ for $500,000 starter homes

not today, not tomorrow, not ever

Comment by In Colorado
2014-09-18 07:39:55

http://money.cnn.com/2014/09/17/real_estate/millennials-still-home/index.html

The Millenials are not moving out of the basement.

Remember all of those Millennials living in their parent’s basements because they couldn’t find a job or afford a place of their own?

Well, they haven’t moved out yet.

They also don’t seem to be in a hurry to get married, have kids — or buy a home. And that has pushed the homeownership rate among young adults ages 18 to 34 to a new low of 13.2%, according to an analysis of Census Bureau data by Trulia.

13.2%? To quote George Takei: “Ooooh Myyyyy!”

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 10:00:52
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-18 08:53:58

Quote in the DBJ: “The study found that 42 percent of Denver residents are living in “liquid asset poverty” — meaning they are in households without sufficient savings to subsist at the poverty level for three months in the absence of income, said CFED, a Washington, D.C.-based nonprofit dedicated to expanding economic opportunities for low-income families.”

Response -
a) Subsist at a 3 month level: Maybe the cop in FL who is losing his house (see other blog report today by Ben) qualifies for this group?
b) ” expanding economic opportunities for low-income families”: Really - when we have Auntie Yellen yesterday pitying the poor saying they need to ramp up asset acquisition to become wealthier. With what exactly is this beleguered (sp?) group supposed to do that with? And the numbers heading into poverty keep growing - this even by tainted fed. govt. stats?

Comment by redmondjp
2014-09-18 11:27:22

I know that this won’t apply to everybody, but my “poor” neighbors (husband and 2nd wife + 2 kids - both husband and wife used to ‘own’ homes but lost them) who just moved in with Grandpa, both drive gas-sucking Suburbans, have their kids in private school, and are blowing money right and left on kids’ toys, toys for themselves (motorcycles/scooters), and $5K new fence, new shed, etc. I am just blown away by it all. The house they live in was purchased back in the 1980s (30 years ago - it should be paid off now) for $84K and somewhere around $350K is owed on it now.

Husband just got on state disability (so he now has a valid excuse not to work), and is also receiving payments from the state to raise younger brother’s son.

Too many “poor” people that I am personally familiar with have horrible financial managemement skills/habits, and don’t see a need to change that in any way (you would think that losing your house and moving in with daddy would be a giant 2×4 over the head, but apparently not in my neighbors’ case).

I just get mad when I think that my taxes go to support these kinds of behavior.

Comment by mathguy
2014-09-18 13:42:42

But think of the children you uncaring *conservative*.

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 19:31:15

They’re just playing by the rules.

“both husband and wife used to ‘own’ homes but lost them)”

“have their kids in private school, and are blowing money right and left on kids’ toys, toys for themselves (motorcycles/scooters), and $5K new fence, new shed, etc.”

“The house they live in was purchased back in the 1980s (30 years ago - it should be paid off now) for $84K and somewhere around $350K is owed on it now.”

“Husband just got on state disability (so he now has a valid excuse not to work), and is also receiving payments from the state to raise younger brother’s son.”

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 06:02:33

U.S. News
In California, a Novel Use of Eminent Domain Hits Headwinds
Divisive Plan Would Buy Mortgages—but Not Homes—to Reduce Residents’ Debt Burdens
By Nick Timiraos
Sept. 16, 2014 1:16 p.m. ET
To help struggling homeowners like Doris Ducre, the mayor of Richmond, Calif. has a plan: use eminent domain to seize their underwater mortgages from banks and restructure the loans.

RICHMOND, Calif.— Morris LeGrande and Scott Barker would both benefit from a radical plan being eyed here to use the power of eminent domain to slash their home mortgages.

Yet the two homeowners occupy opposite ends of a debate over who should take responsibility for inflated housing debts—lenders or borrowers.

Without debt forgiveness, Mr. LeGrande says, he and his wife “have a decision to make as to how long we stay” in their house. Mr. Barker condemns the city’s plan to chop his mortgage as “snake-oil stuff” that is “wrong on a number of levels.” Both have loans that were among the 624 mortgages the city proposed forcibly purchasing last year.

Six years after the financial crisis spurred Washington to bail out entire sectors of the economy, few cities capture the unevenness of the nation’s recovery quite like this industrial hub of 100,000 residents on San Francisco’s East Bay.

Home prices in nearby San Francisco and Silicon Valley are setting new highs, but prices here still hover around 37% below where they were at their peak in 2006. More than a quarter of Richmond borrowers owe more than their homes are worth, according to a report prepared by researchers at the University of California, Berkeley, compared with 10% nationally.

How so many Richmond homeowners got so deeply in debt helps explain why the plan is so controversial. Borrowers often compensated for slowly rising incomes during the boom years by tapping rising home equity to pay for bills and repairs. Then when the market crashed, they were left with mortgage debt exceeding their homes’ values.

Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin wants to use the city’s property-seizing powers of eminent domain—normally reserved for shared public purposes like building roads—to help homeowners like Mr. LeGrande dig out from huge housing debts. Other cities, including Newark and Irvington in New Jersey, have proposed similar plans but none has advanced as far as Richmond’s.

Under Richmond’s plan, the city would seize the mortgage—but not the home—with backing from a private firm. They would then reduce the loan principal and refinance into a new government-guaranteed loan. That would leave the borrower with a fixed payment and less debt.

But the plan has met a wall of protest from banks and mortgage-bond investors, who have sued to block the seizures. They fear the plan works only if cities are able to buy loans at deep discounts, and mortgage investors say the proposal would make them less willing to extend credit in Richmond.

Mr. Barker’s experience gives some sense of the costs involved. The city proposed buying 10 loans last year in his neighborhood, developed in 2004 on a ridge overlooking the San Francisco Bay. While homes have sold in the $600,000 range over the past year, the city last year offered to pay as little as $231,000 for some loans.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 06:09:43

We covered this story on the HBB at great length a few years ago. It’s interesting to note that the situation remains unresolved, years later.

Comment by scdave
2014-09-18 07:19:42

It’s interesting to note that the situation remains unresolved, years later ??

“The Mouse That Roared”….They know they would loose in a legal battle that they have no resources to even attempt to wage…And the “blood suckers” in San Francisco that want to lend them the money to buy the mortgages don’t seem to keen to “step-up-to-the-plate” to help with a legal battle now do they ??

 
 
Comment by rms
2014-09-18 07:19:56

Weren’t these the peeps guilty of serial re-financing?

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 06:03:33

This news will take some wind out of the housing bulls’ sails.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 06:05:21

Market Pulse
U.S. housing starts tumble 14.4% in August
Published: Sept 18, 2014 8:30 a.m. ET
By Ruth Mantell
Economics reporter

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Construction started on new U.S. homes tumbled 14.4% in August, pulling back after a surge in July, signaling some shakiness in the housing market’s recovery, according to government data released Thursday. Led by drops throughout the country, the annual rate of housing starts fell to 956,000 last month from 1.12 million in July, which was the fastest pace since late 2007, the U.S. Commerce Department reported. Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected starts to cool down in August, hitting a rate of 1.03 million, compared with an original estimate of 1.09 million in July. The construction pace for single-family homes fell 2.4% in August, while volatile apartment starts in buildings with at least five units plunged 31.5%.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 06:28:15

With 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses, why are any getting built?

Comment by mathguy
2014-09-18 13:44:29

If you were a builder and you could build at $55/sq ft.. wouldn’t you sell as many as you could at $300/sq ft?

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 14:58:42

True but considering nobody is paying $300/sq ft, it’s a moot point.

 
 
 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-18 07:01:13

But the home builder sentiment index is the highest it’s been in 9 years!

Given how effectively the ‘hard’ statistics (GDP, employment, etc) are completely fudged to the point where they are meaningless, how difficult must it be to fudge a ’sentiment’ index?

Do they ’seasonally adjust’ the sentiment index as well?

 
 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 21:45:40

How do you expect prices to crash if we don’t overbuild? Isn’t that kind of a vital part of the housing cycle?

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:10:50

After watching the 2:58 video I think the NSA should be keeping a close eye on the people who work for the NSA.

Region IV out

Irate NSA Staffer Doesn’t Like Being Filmed in Public, for Some Reason

By John Cook

The NSA sent someone bearing the nametag “Neal Z.” to the University of New Mexico’s Engineering and Science Career Fair today, in the hopes of recruiting young computer geniuses to help manage the yottabytes of data it is collecting about you. But instead of eager young applicants, Mr. Z. encountered University of New Mexico alumnus Andy Beale and student Sean Potter, who took the rare opportunity of being in the room with a genuine NSA agent to ask him about his employer’s illegal collection of metadata on all Americans. Mr. Z. did not like that one bit.

firstlook.org/…/2014/09/17/irate-nsa-staffer-doesnt-like-filmed-public-reason/ - 29k - Cached

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:17:34

NSA Attacks Sutdent at University of New Mexico (Angle Two …
http://www.youtube.com/…1&fs=1&showsearch=0&showinfo=1&iv_load_policy=1&wmode=transparent - 15k - Cached - Similar pages

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 07:22:02

“This page isn’t available. Sorry about that.”

“Try searching for something else.”

But I don’t want to search for something else.

Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 08:10:24

yea they took that down pretty quick

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Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 06:18:16

fundamental transformation in the land of fruits and nuts

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-18/san-francisco-moves-to-pay-for-kids-immigration-lawyers.html

and every single one of these kidz will grow up to vote democrat for life

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 06:36:13

Voting, hah. You’re better off voting on which one of the four brands of new Lays potato chip favors should be permanent. You have a much better chance of making a difference. All these blame the idiot voter, blame the people who elect them excuses don’t do it for me. You will never be given the opportunity to vote for anyone who will make a difference. That system is and has always been rigged.

Better to improve yourself and your family’s situation personally through hard work and determination. That is still possible.

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-18 07:02:30

They want to keep them around - maybe they’ll buy a house in San Fran some day!

 
Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 08:16:42

Not many kids in San Francisco these days I guess they have to import them.

 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 06:31:00

The United States is in a permanent stagflationary depression

Note the second graph in the article which depicts inflation running at or above 8% for the past 20 years

http://www.businessinsider.com/long-term-look-at-us-inflation-2014-9

There is no “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes

Not today, not tomorrow, not ever

Comment by rms
2014-09-18 07:27:09

That stagflation of the early seventies thru the early eighties was a terrible time to get started in life; same for the young today.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 07:43:06

The Millennials as a generation do not have the Eye of the Tiger. Growing up deprived may give you that (see Rocky III), some are born with it, but endless entertainment distractions and cheap abundant delicious food is usually incompatible with it.

Yes, they face structural problems as a whole. On the other hand, the competition pool of focused persistent hard working people is getting smaller and smaller. So they got that going for them, which is nice…

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:45:34

Global Chillin’

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 06:59:45

Real journalists will script your narrative

http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/feb/14/funding-climate-change-denial-thinktanks-network

And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 06:47:41

Chillist gonna Chill

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 07:07:47

We are the real journalists

And as Roger Daltrey sang, “who the f* are you?”

We went to Yale, we went to Columbia, we went to Princeton

We write for the New York Times and the Washington Post

We do not write for the Palm Beach Post or the South Florida Sun Sentinel

You are not a real journalist, and without us, you are nothing

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 07:16:47

I have checked in.

I am crying without tears.

Now where the hell in that damn card!?

 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 06:52:15

Breitbart dot com are not real journalists

http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2014/09/17/trust-in-media-returns-to-all-time-low

You should trust real journalists, just like you should trust realtors and police

Real journalists help script the narrative so you don’t have to think

And real journalists do this out of love, because they care

Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 08:23:42

real journalists ?

Al Jazeera America offers unbiased, fact-based, in-depth stories of U.S. and international news, including sports, business, lifestyle and investigative journalism.’

 
 
Comment by aNYCdj
2014-09-18 07:01:19

well gee Now they tell us……..

Instead of QE, the Fed Could Have Given $56,000 to Every Household in America

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/instead-qe-fed-could-given-094500275.html

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-18 07:25:47

Yeah, we don’t pay for government, or even the interest on its debt. The government should pay us. And it should police the world, while we buy stuff made elsewhere. Everybody should use our currency, because it’s sound. It’s so glaringly obvious. The only decision we face is how to hand out the printed wealth. I wonder how history will view this time.

Comment by aNYCdj
2014-09-18 11:17:24

All I’ve ever said Ben is we got incredibly poor value for the Trillions borrowed and spent.

There need to be a radical change in attitude in America…sure we all love capitalism and free enterprise. But we have so many dependent on government because its an entitlement handout and very little is spent on a hand up.

You know my take on things, We should have bailed out CIT not AIG since they provided short term AR loans and letters of credit to small businesses….

I know its all borrowed money but it seems very little of it got to the bottom rung

 
Comment by rms
2014-09-18 11:33:28

“I wonder how history will view this time.”

“Beware the beast Man, for he is the Devil’s pawn. Alone among God’s primates, he kills for sport or lust or greed. Yea, he will murder his brother to possess his brother’s land. Let him not breed in great numbers, for he will make a desert of his home and yours. Shun him; drive him back into his jungle lair, for he is the harbinger of death.” –Cornelius

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 15:59:18

Chimps kill for sport or list or greed also. And they eat monkeys. We can’t all just hold hands and be peaceful mango eating primates singing Kumbaya.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 19:47:14

Morning Mix
Chimpanzees are natural born killers, study says, and they prefer mob violence
By Terrence McCoy September 18 at 6:07 AM
A dominant male chimpanzee walks through the rain forest in Uganda’s Kibale National Park in 2006. (James Akena/Reuters)

Few actions orchestrated in the animal kingdom are awarded a headline that would befit mankind. The chimpanzee, however, is the exception.

“Chimp leader assassinated by gang of underlings,” read the headline last year in New Scientist. It told the story of Pimu, who led his cohort of chimpanzees until a violent day in March last year when Pimu picked the wrong fight. Four chimpanzees appeared out of nowhere, according to New Scientist, and beat Pimu to death with their hands and feet. It was a grisly end for a species that, along with humans, are among the only animals to coordinate attacks on their own kind.

But such a murder was a natural action, according to a study published Wednesday in Nature. The paper, which analyzed data from 426 combined years of observation and 18 separate chimp sites, argues chimps are not driven to violence by their contacts with humans, which some scientists have previously contended. Chimps, rather, are natural born killers.

“Variation in killing rates was unrelated to measures of human impacts,” said the paper, which was researched by an international team of 30 scientists. “… The adaptive strategies hypothesis views killing as an evolved tactic by which killers tend to increase their fitness through increased access to territory, food, mates and other benefits.”

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 19:48:37

Killers Like Us: Chimpanzees
This pack hunter is your own next-of-kin. But some of our closest cousins are killers who can eat up to a ton of meat in a year.

 
Comment by Shillow
2014-09-18 21:00:07

And that damn Cornelius was a chimp. It saddened me to find this out about chimps being killers because I liked that movie and thought it made a good point back then.

 
Comment by rms
2014-09-18 22:39:35

Time to auction that Planet of the Apes DVD set. :)

 
 
 
 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-09-18 08:51:58

Yellen sheds crocodile tears for the poor and middle class while continuing the policies which push debt on them and blow asset bubbles, thus helping the cronies.

Chair Janet L. Yellen
(via prerecorded video)
September 18, 2014

The Importance of Asset Building for Low and Middle Income Households

Another likely reason for this decline in net worth is the lingering effects of the housing crisis. Home equity accounts for the lion’s share of wealth for most families and many of these families have not yet recovered the wealth they lost in the housing crisis. [ed. note: Can't eat home equity.]

The Federal Reserve’s mission is to promote a healthy economy and strong financial system, and that is why we have promoted and will continue to promote asset-building. [ed. note: Really? Is this part of their dual mandate? Promoting a healthy economy through encouraging the poor and middle class to build assets? Is this their business? I'm glad to hear them explicitly say things like this. It confirms suspicions. How about next moving onto solving the ebola crisis or encouraging wold peace? Wow. THIS is why the society needs to keep a short leash on an organization like a central bank. Because if you don't keep it leashed, you will soon find you are the one wearing the leash.]

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/yellen20140918a.htm

All this intervention, to help the poor. Of course.

Of course.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-18 09:24:50

“Because if you don’t keep it leashed, you will soon find you are the one wearing the leash.”

BINGO

 
 
 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-18 07:46:07

Check this out, goon. The Daily Mail may get expelled from the Drudge family.

Is global warming causing COLDER winters? Melting ice is destabilising the polar vortex, study claims

Global warming could be triggering increasingly cold winters in some parts of the world, scientists have claimed.

Researchers have discovered a link between rising ocean temperatures, and a large pocket of cold air known as the polar vortex.

They discovered that as oceans heat up and melt the Arctic ice, warm air is released that destabilises polar air and sends cold blasts into the atmosphere.

The polar vortex was responsible for the extreme and freezing temperatures experienced in the US last winter.

A polar vortex is a large pocket of very cold air that sits above the polar region during the winter months.

During winter this air chills and contrasts with the warmer temperatures further away from the pole.

Pressure contrasts between these temperatures create fast winds that swirl around the pocket of cold air.

Researchers, led by Baek-Min Kim from Korea Polar Research Institute, compared recent weather trends and reports, with computer models.

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2757831/Is-global-warming-causing-COLDER-winters-Melting-ice-destabilising-polar-vortex-study-claims.html#ixzz3Dg88G0Ue
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 08:10:41

Did you know Matt Drudge is allegedly gay?

http://gawker.com/5200009/drudge-i-do-not-love-sex-with-men

Out Magazine named him to their “power list” of influential gay people

http://www.out.com/2012/04/17/power-list-matt-drudge

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:15:29

I don’t give a damn who he’s sleeping with or attracted to. He is the antithesis of the captured corporate media and has done an enormous public service by offering a site where Americans can go for real news and real truth, uncensored by MSM corporate propaganda hacks.

 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 08:16:04

“Researchers, led by Baek-Min Kim from Korea Polar Research Institute”

Korean Polar Research Institute (KOPRI)

About the Republic of Korea’s National Antarctic Program

“being a government sponsored research institute dedicated to polar science and logistic support which was established to contribute to the development of national science and technology capacities and to advance knowledge for the benefit of all mankind by undertaking world-class scientific research programs in cooperation with national and international partners.”

http://www.comnap.aq/Members/KOPRI - 60k -

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-09-18 11:35:20

It’s also what is causing epic drought in the west. As the Pacific off Cali warms it creates an anomaly high pressure ridge during the winter that is normally not there. Driving wet weather way up north. The jet stream is broken.

 
 
Comment by cactus
2014-09-18 07:51:00

been hard on Bears last few years

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/cnbc-anchor-calls-fed-hater-155231593.html

And listening to Fleckenstein talk, you can almost hear the frustration in his voice. The belief that the monetary experiment currently being undertaken by the world’s largest central banks will end in ruin has become a more marginalized, if not downright lonely, position in the face of bond and stock markets that have rallied.

And while a media outfit like CNBC is trying to create compelling segments for viewers, the most honest assessment of Fleckenstein’s appearance Tuesday is that it seemed as if he was getting trolled.

 
Comment by Ryan
2014-09-18 08:47:45

Meanwhile over at ZH:

Goldman’s Former Head Of Housing Research Predicts Housing Crash, Recession Within Three Years

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-17/goldmans-former-head-housing-research-predicts-housing-crash-within-three-years

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-18 09:10:00

Nice article

You’ll never hear the real journalists on CNBC discuss any of that

 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-18 09:39:34

Inside the comments section on ZH are a couple of interesting links including this guy:
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/

Two posts caught my attention including the one on Lennar Homes reporting. This guy appears to be based in Denver given his post from a few days ago about driving around side streets near Denver Country Clug etc. Seems the for sale signs are starting to sprout like weeds - a proxy for fire sales.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-18 21:53:53

I agree with the magnitude (I think I said 10-20% nominally the other day on the board), but I disagree with the timing. We won’t see the correction until we have more development.

 
 
Comment by Interested Observer
2014-09-18 09:57:32

From a Fortune article:

“Even the smartest investors don’t really understand Alibaba”

I’m calling a market top. One of the first rules of investing is never invest in something that you don’t understand.

This is up there with the article in late 1998 that declared that companies no longer have to make profits. By the end of 1998 I was out of the market. Had to wait another year before things went south, but they did.

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-09-18 11:37:17

Don’t be a doofus. SELL NOW!!

 
Comment by rms
2014-09-18 11:42:52

My 3/2 rancher is falling in value:

Assessed (old): $151,640
Assessed (new): $150,395

The recovery, falling home prices, is moving along albeit slowly.

 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-18 12:21:12

Quiz me this one folks - Is ANYONE out there as angry as I am about all this crap going on not just in housing but in LIFE? Disgusted with it all!!!

Comment by Puggs
2014-09-18 13:36:48

Here, here. Pretty disgusted with all the beheadings and medieval shenanigans being touted on Twitter around the globe. Sad.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:37:05

Maybe this Russian Old Believer and her hermit clan had the right idea. They fled Bolshevik persecution and lived in the remote Siberian Taiga for decades…quite a story.

http://rt.com/news/188532-russia-agafia-siberian-forest/

 
 
 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-18 15:12:57

First this:

Microsoft lays off 2,100 as part of earlier job cut plan
Reuters 9/18/2014 2:28 PM ET
Print Article
SEATTLE, Sept 18 (Reuters) - Microsoft Corp made a second round of layoffs on Thursday, moving towards its target of cutting 18,000 staff, or about 14 percent of its workforce, as Chief Executive Officer Satya Nadella tries to slim down the giant software company.

Microsoft gave notice to 2,100 employees on Thursday, 747 of those in the Seattle area, a company spokesman said. That is in addition to 13,000 laid off in July, which means a further 2,900 are set to be laid off over the next nine months or so.

Thursday’s cuts were spread over different countries and teams, the spokesman said. The last wave of cuts mostly affected the handset business of Nokia, which Microsoft bought earlier this year.

(Reporting by Bill Rigby; Editing by Cynthia Osterman)

Then this: UPDATE 1-U.S. household net worth rises to record $81.5 trillion
Reuters 9/18/2014 1:40 PM ET
Print Article
(Adds details, house price data)

WASHINGTON, Sept 18 (Reuters) - The net worth of Americans hit a record high in the second quarter as the stock market climbed, while household debt rose at its fastest pace since 2007 in a sign of growing confidence among U.S. consumers.

Net worth nudged up 1.7 percent to $81.5 trillion, according to the so-called ‘Flow of Funds’ report released on Thursday by the Federal Reserve.

The S&P 500 set another intraday record on Thursday, with the Fed continuing with a highly accommodative monetary policy for a recovering U.S. economy.

The index has risen 3.5 percent since the last flow of funds report in June. In addition to the market boost, Americans have mostly benefited from a strong real estate market throughout the year.

House prices rose 0.8 percent in the second quarter of 2014, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s house price index. It was the 12th consecutive quarterly price increase in the index.

U.S. household debt increased at an annual rate of 3.6 percent in the second quarter, excluding charge-offs of home mortgages, compared to a 2.2 rate in the previous quarter.

Federal debt rose at an annual rate of 2.5 percent.

Total domestic non-financial debt rose at a 3.8 percent rate to $40.5 trillion. (Reporting by Michael Flaherty; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

I am confused. How is it that week after week after week we see these sorts of reports that conflict with one another. What to conclude? They are all Liars.

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 15:36:28

Maybe they should start knocking.

“The story mentions the no-knock raid but fails to explain why it happened or the failure to find any drugs.”

Texas Wants to Execute Man Who Killed Home Intruder Who Turned Out to Be SWAT Member

A police informant apparently told them there were bags of cocaine inside the house

by Scott Shackford | Reason.com | September 18, 2014

Attempting to serve a search warrant by entering a house through a window got Killeen, Texas, Police Detective Charles Dinwiddie shot in the face and killed last May. It was yet another SWAT raid organized for a purpose other than the reason they were invented. The police had a search warrant looking for narcotics at the home of Marvin Louis Guy, 49. They decided to serve this warrant at 5:30 in the morning and without knocking on his door. He opened fire on them, killing Dinwiddie and injuring three others.

Though they found a glass pipe, a grinder, and a pistol, they did not find any drugs. Former Reason Editor Radley Balko took note of the deadly raid in May at The Washington Post. A police informant apparently told them there were bags of cocaine inside the house, which sounds a lot like another familiar drug raid in Virginia that got an officer killed.

The Virginia case ended with Ryan Frederick in prison for 10 years despite his insistence he thought he was defending himself against in home intruders. He may end up lucky compared to Guy. Prosecutors in Texas are going to seek the death penalty against him. KWTX offers a dreadfully written summary that says next to nothing about the circumstances of the raid but gives Dinwiddie’s whole life story. Guy faces three additional charges of attempted capital murder for shooting the other officers. The story mentions the no-knock raid but fails to explain why it happened or the failure to find any drugs.

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-18 21:11:01

This type of thing scares the crap out of me. So, I can defend myself against what any normal/sane-minded person would think is an intruder, but because it’s a police officer breaking into my house (unannounced and likely not visibly dressed as such), and I’ll end up in jail, or worse…

 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:42:03

Another inspiring story of professionalism and integrity from a used house salesperson.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2759336/Estate-agent-trusted-spare-key-snuck-house-stole-homeowner-s-iPad.html

 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 15:45:28

“Every child born today enters this world $55, 651 in debt. Of course children can’t pay taxes, so their taxpaying parents are responsible for their debts until they can. Thus, every tax payer today owes the Federal Government $152,159 dollars. Forty percent (40%) of those taxpayers are on food stamps, over 60% make less than $40,000 a year. Needless to say, the U.S. National Debt is out of control.”

“The principle of spending money to be paid by posterity, under the name of funding, is but swindling futurity on a large scale”

— Thomas Jefferson

September 17, 2014 Economics, Editorial

EDITORIAL
By Sannleikur Komist

In the past 12 months, the United States of America has increased the debt of the nation in excess of $1 trillion dollars. Our children and their children and perhaps our children’s children, are now on the hook for money they owe, through no fault of their own, approaching $18 trillion dollars and growing.

This Federal Reserve chart below only displays the U.S. debt as of September 2013 at which time the debt was just shy of $16.7 trillion dollars. As of this writing, the national debt has increased to nearly $17.8 trillion dollars and shows no sign of slowing down. Until the above National Debt Clock starts to run backwards, the magnitude of the coming deflationary depression will continue to grow and the severity of the inherent crisis will only increase.

President Thomas Jefferson recognized that spending money which doesn’t belong to you is a criminal act. He warned the citizens of the newly formed union that deficit spending was a road they didn’t want to start down; that politicians would try to buy votes by making promises only able to be kept with borrowed funds; and that bankers would be more than happy to provide those funds — for a price. Jefferson called it swindling – because that’s what it is.

With a new war cranking up half way around the world, estimated to cost taxpayers another trillion dollars, and a global Ebola crisis, estimated to cost the U.S. nearly a half a trillion dollars, and a myriad of other economic woes that will take money from the pockets of our already cash-strapped citizenry, there seems to be no end to the spending that is driving U.S. debt to levels that astound and boggle the mind in their magnitude. Factor in Welfare, Social Security, Medicare and other unfunded liabilities and the absurdity of the picture becomes akin to a painting by Picasso or Salvadore Dali.

Every child born today enters this world $55, 651 in debt. Of course children can’t pay taxes, so their taxpaying parents are responsible for their debts until they can. Thus, every tax payer today owes the Federal Government $152,159 dollars. Forty percent (40%) of those taxpayers are on food stamps, over 60% make less than $40,000 a year. Needless to say, the U.S. National Debt is out of control.

The picture above is of a bubble, a debt bubble bigger than any in history. I talk about bubbles in my article entitled Anatomy of a bubble. Bubbles always burst. Bubbles this big burst with catastrophic results. I don’t pretend to know precisely when the bubble will begin to collapse. I try to anticipate the point, identify the moment, by tracking the markets with Elliott Wave theory. And I continuously remind you that the bubble will eventually pop – because it will.

http://www.globaldeflationnews.com/the-principle-of-spending-money-to-be-paid-by-posterity-under-the-name-of-funding-is-but-swindling-futurity-on-a-large-scale-thomas-jefferson/

Comment by Puggs
2014-09-18 16:02:47

“Always ALWAYS, pay down debt in good times.”

Of course in order to pay off the national debt you need a couple life times.

Yer skewered.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-18 16:21:16

Forty percent (40%) of those taxpayers are on food stamps.

That must be wrong. Most of the people on food stamps are probably not taxpayers. Doesn’t this person remember Romney and his 47%?

Factor in Welfare, Social Security, Medicare and other unfunded liabilities and the absurdity of the picture becomes akin to a painting by Picasso or Salvadore Dali.

Usually welfare is not considered an unfunded liability in the way that Social Security and Medicare are. It would be more accurate to say that Social Security and Medicare are partially funded, because their trust funds and dedicated taxes are projected to pay for only part of their costs in the future. If we assume that we’re going to need armed forces of some kind for as long as the republic exists, it would be reasonable to say that the military needs of the country are a completely unfunded liability.

This person mentions welfare in the context of debt that will have to be paid by children in the future. Yet most welfare goes to families with children.

Furthermore, don’t right wing “anti-government” types usually ridicule liberals when they want to do something for the sake of children?

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 16:43:15

“That must be wrong.”

I wish this was wrong

“In the past 12 months, the United States of America has increased the debt of the nation in excess of $1 trillion dollars.”

“approaching $18 trillion dollars and growing.”

Comment by Puggs
2014-09-18 17:48:24

Watching a debt clock is depressing. All that red makes one dizzy!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:52:06

The oligarchs, despite being the beneficiaries of the Fed’s free-money policies, are betting on precious metals rather than debased fiat currency.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11104055/Super-rich-rush-to-buy-Italian-Job-style-gold-bars.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 15:55:06

It appears that more and more mini-states want no part of being herded into the globalists’ incorporated plantation.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/09/18/europe-s-secession-panic.html

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 16:18:55

Video footage of the Obama Zombies, McCain Mutants, and Romney Retards being herded by their MSM border collies into the voting booth to install the Republicrat duopoly’s 2016 “choices,” Hilary and Jed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tgkgzoz9ZFA

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 16:45:47
Comment by azdude
2014-09-18 17:18:09

They will just print some more cash like we do when sh@t hits the fan.

But first you must flush the sheep out of their assets.Pretend things will end badly then start up the printing press.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 20:34:06

China’s economy
A test of will
After a sharp slowdown, stimulus is back on the agenda
Sep 20th 2014 | From the print edition

WHEN Li Keqiang, China’s prime minister, spoke at a big business meeting earlier this month, he trumpeted two achievements. Not only had the government overseen steady economic growth, he said, but it had done so without resorting to a big stimulus. Both assertions are now looking rather doubtful.

A barrage of data for August pointed to a sudden weakening in growth, catching many analysts and investors by surprise. Although it is unwise to read too much into one month’s numbers, the figures had a distressingly uniform downward tilt. Investment, retail sales and credit issuance all slowed. Industrial output, which is closely correlated with GDP given the size of China’s manufacturing sector, grew at its weakest pace since late 2008, when the global financial crisis was battering the economy. Housing sales, already struggling, contracted further; they have fallen 8% so far this year. That has started to eat into the revenues of local governments, since property developers are holding back on land purchases. Yao Wei of Société Générale, a French bank, called it a “shockingly sharp” deceleration.

Until the gloomy data started to pile up, China’s economy had seemed to be following an established pattern. A wobbly start to 2014 had prompted the government to come up with a series of policies to revive growth. It sped up spending on infrastructure and cheap housing, while the central bank administered a small dose of monetary easing. In 2012 and again in 2013 measures of more-or-less the same design had been enough to keep the economy going. But this year the jolt lasted for little more than a month before petering out.

Trouble in the property sector, which directly accounts for about 15% of China’s GDP, is the biggest single factor. A glut of unsold homes has started to weigh on the market. Inventories at listed developers rose by a quarter in the first half, reaching 65% of their assets, an all-time high, according to CICC, a Chinese investment bank. The pain is even spreading to the biggest cities, especially in suburbs where building has been most frenetic. In Jiading, a northern district of Shanghai, the streets are lined with ads for new homes, yet the showrooms of its sprawling developments receive few visitors.

The good news is that property is getting more affordable: the average home costs about 8.8 times the annual income of the average Chinese household, down from nearly 12 times in 2010, according to an index calculated by the Economist Intelligence Unit, a sister company of The Economist. The bad news is that the market may yet be far from bottoming out.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-18 17:34:16

Peyton Manning Totally Scored When They Legalized Pot in Colorado—Pizza Business Is Booming!

Natalie Finn, eonline
Seconds ago
entertainment-eonline-20140918-b580639

Peyton Manning, Papa John’s

It turns out Peyton Manning is getting a second-hand Rocky Mountain high thanks to marijuana being legalized in Colorado.

“I’ve gotten to know some of the folks here in Colorado,” the Denver Broncos quarterback told Sports Illustrated ’s MMQB With Peter King . “There’s some different laws out here in Colorado. Pizza business is pretty good out here, believe it or not, due to some recent law changes. So when you come to a different place, you’ve kind of got to learn everything that comes with it.”

Now what does he mean by that again?

Well, after Manning joined the Broncos following his 14 seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, he bought up 21 Papa John’s franchises—just two weeks before a majority of voters said yes to Amendment 64, making recreational pot legal in Colorado.

Touchdown! With extra cheese!

Not that the NFL star planned it that way…

“It’s a smart investment now and will be long after I’m done playing football,” Manning, who worked his charm in an endearing Papa John’s commercial last fall, told reporters back in 2012 , when the deal went through.

“He’s the kind of partner we’re looking for, not only in marketing but in business,” Papa John’s chief marketing officer Andrew Varga also said at the time. “The pizza category is fun. Our founder has fun when he gets into the commercials. You throw Peyton into that mix with the NFL platform and it makes it easy to execute lighthearted commercials that are very much in character for both.”

Just consider the addition of a silent, smoky partner a win in overtime.

Meanwhile, it’s a bit of a coincidence that the Broncos played the Seattle Seahawks in Super Bowl XLVIII, considering Washington is now (since July) the only other state where recreational pot use is legal—though obviously only one team played as if it had been indulging in too much, er, pizza before the game.

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-18 18:37:51

Guess again, Sessions. And your GOP was bought and paid for years ago by those same oligarchs.

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-TV/2014/09/18/Sessions-America-is-Not-an-Oligarchy-Where-The-Masters-of-the-Universe-Decide-Immigration-Law

 
Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-09-18 21:06:31

I just clicked on an ad for “corpulent brony”. Is that wrong?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 23:03:44

Sounds a little gay (not that there is anything wrong with that!)…

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-18 23:06:22

Another US recession may be coming … sooner than you think
Economists warn contraction in emerging market economies could cause another economic slump in 2015
September 16, 2014 6:00AM ET
by Philip Pilkington @pilkingtonphil

The current consensus among American policymakers and commentators, including Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen, is that the U.S. economic recovery is well underway. A recent survey by U.S. Federal Reserve has shown a solid growth in the U.S. economy, prompting some economists to raise concerns about too rapid a recovery and the resulting risks of inflation.

But not everyone agrees with this assessment. One firm in particular, the Jerome Levy Forecasting Center, a New York–based economic consultancy, warned that the world economy might plunge into another recession in 2015 that will take down the U.S. economy with it. It is hard not to take this forecast seriously. Levy economists, who use the profits perspective forecasting model developed by Jerome Levy in 1908, have accurately predicted every major financial event in the past few decades, including the 2008 financial crisis, which many mainstream economists said was unforeseeable.

The Levy Center says policymakers and commentators are not paying attention to a key trend in the global economy: the fall of investment expenditure in emerging market economies. The following chart shows investment expenditure for the Levy Center’s emerging market aggregate.

 
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