September 19, 2014

Bits Bucket for September 19, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 01:59:08

Seattle, WA Housing Inventory Balloons As Demand Dives 9% YoY; First Yearly Decline Since 2011

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:37:46

Someday you might be right.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 06:39:02

Stick with the data Az_Fraud and don’t take it personal.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:08:49


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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 07:22:13

Data Az_Fraud data.

Comment by Amy Hoax
Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-19 14:27:47


Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 14:32:52


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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 02:01:02

Nevada Housing Demand Craters 22%YoY; Sinks To 2001 Level

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 03:56:31

We finally completed installing our solar system last week.

It is a 5 kWh system with 18 panels (and “optimizers”) with a current inverter in the garage. Our total cost was under $12,000. Third party bids were between $17,500 and $18,500, but we purchased the system components directly and installed it ourselves. We have generated 28 kWh/day during the three days of full operation.

There is 30% federal tax credit, so the final cost will be under $8,000 and we will “zero out” our $1,200/year electrical bill and have about 2,000 kWh extra to use for additional purposes (electric car?). We are now waiting for PG&E to approve our net electrical metering (NEM) application.

We could not be happier with the result. It is about a 15% ROI on cost and about a 9.98% ROI when we amortize the system over 25 years! It is hard to find that kind of Return on Investment today and it is “tax free”!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 05:59:58

Nothing like throwing good money after bad on a depreciating asset.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:22:56

solar will help solve global warming.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-19 06:02:10

Who is this “we”. Sounds pretentious.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 06:32:46

amy hoax = mrs. jingle male

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 06:53:16

Yes, me and Amy. She really jingles my bells!

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Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:17:09

what kind of panels? Did you find any benefit to a whole house inverter to micro inverters? Did you have to install racking on the roof? where did you buy your materials?

mu buddy just did a 2000 watt system mounted in yard on a pole with racking.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 06:50:55

CSun 260 panels. Using the system inverter (instead of inverters on each panel) was a bit cheaper and w the optimizers we can expand the system anytime.

We did mount racking over our tile roof. It is a simple system but a lot of work to get it done right.

We bought our system from a local distributer in Sacramento. They offered a great price on the panels. We wanted to get them now because there is a new 17% tariff going into effect now.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:05:53

With the racking I assume you had to get the hardware to mount to trusses under the roof osb? Then the hardware protrudes out under the roof tile so you can attach the rails? That seems like some work.

Most people don’t realize that most of the roof tiles aren’t even nailed down but simply rest of the batten. I had to replace a few that got cracked on our roof. It can actually be hard to find matching tiles and I actually went to a roofing boneyard to find some.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 08:33:59

Yes AZ you are correct. We lagged into the rafters with “tile hooks”. We did not break any tiles, fortunately, so I did not have to go to the “bone yard”.

I will say I have repaired broken tiles with JB Weld many times on many houses. It has never failed and some repairs are over 15 years old. If you can find all the pieces of a broken tile, get some JB Weld. It one of the most amazing and durable bonding agents on the market.

Comment by 2banana
2014-09-19 07:14:23

What is your ROI without massive tax subsidies?

And you must include maintenance and disposal costs in your calculation

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:03:30

The math doesn’t work.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 08:23:45

It would be a lot lower. Let’s say we paid retail, w/o a tax credit, so $18,000. If we save $1,200/year, it takes 15 years to break even. If you amortize the system over 25-years, it is a 2.9% ROI on the net savings.

As you point out, that does NOT include maintenance and disposal costs. I don’t know if that is a big number, but I don’t think it is. However, I will say that energy costs are bound to go up and I am locked in. I used $.12/kWh in my calcs and the average PG&E rate is now $17/kWh.

I believe energy costs will go up over time and have been for many years. I remember in 1995, PG&E was about $.06/kWh. So electricity has increased 300% over 20-years. None of my calculations used higher energy costs in the future, so that is a big wild card. Everyone else can rent their electricity, but I chose to own and lock in my cost. After 6 years, I am playing with “house” money anyway (hahaha, I made a pun).

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:29:10

Replacing the panels in 10 years is a big number.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 09:15:12

The panels have a 25-year warranty and their older versions have been in service for many years. Of course you never know if the company will stay in business. As you see, once the federal subsidies are discontinued (2017?) a lot of PV manufactures will go out of business. Just like previous solar companies did in the 1980s.

If rates triple in the next 20 years (like they have in the last 20-years) this will be a massive home run. I paid my money, now I will take the risks. Seems like a great opportunity to me, but I have a different perspective than many on this board. I looked at solar in 2009 and it did not pencil so well. $30,000 to save $1,500/year (different house). This time it made a lot of sense, because of the drop in costs, rise in rates and I could install it myself.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 10:12:51

And they’ll look at your installation and say “Nope youre on your own”.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-19 13:51:07

My highest marginal rate with PG&E is something like $0.35, so the math looks even better if you are a significant user of power.

Energy efficient bulbs, etc. make a lot of sense.

Hell, it’s possible that buying a new TV/computer monitor makes economic sense!

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-09-19 16:24:56

What a country! We use tax avoidance schemes and taxpayer credits to get you to front load your utility costs for 25 years. Yes, when subsidy goes so will the manufacturers, it has already played out in many places, because it has a negative ROE. Thanks for raising rates for all the rest of us. BTW, these things are not designed to last 25 years, and neither are the manufacturers.

On that recurring theme of extrapolating the credit mania history of the past years to infinity, good luck!

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 08:24:15

“What is your ROI without massive tax subsidies?”

I was wondering the same. Do these kind of Green Energy installations pencil out without Uncle Sam’s help?

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-19 08:40:32

without Uncle Sam’s help?

We really need to stop talking as if the money is coming from some magical 3rd party.

“Without the help of your neighbors, family members, and all the folks on this board”*

(* who pay taxes, of course).

I’m guessing Ben is going to jump on this one and point out that it’s not actually the taxpayers footing the bill, but rather the money is conjured into thin air by the fed. I suppose that’s a fair argument, but then I’d just change the folks footing the bill to be those who are holding fiat dollars that are getting devalued more and more each day

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:47:35

And how goes the value of the investment called a rotting pile of depreciating wood?

Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2014-09-19 08:51:00

Probably really decreases your home-ower’s insurance too, to have that additional liability. Did you pull permits to install that?

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 09:09:22

It is all permitted. You can’t get PG&E NEM (net electrical metering) with a final inspection.

I called my insurance guy and he added it to my policy. I don’t know if there is a premium increase yet, but I doubt any increase will be much. I pay $700/year now.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-19 13:07:40

One critical aspect that I don’t think got enough attention in the discussion.

With a roughly 50% tax rate in CA, I need to earn $2 to pay $1 in utility costs.

Therefore, “ROI” equal to 3% per year, is actually equivalent to putting the money in the bank and earning 6% in interest (and then paying your tax on it).

Unfortunately, my house has too much shade, and my roof was installed just a few years ago with a 50-year warranty, so I’m not inclined to start poking holes in it…

Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-19 15:51:30

“and my roof was installed just a few years ago with a 50-year warranty, so I’m not inclined to start poking holes in it…”

Our home too, Rental Watch. In late 2012 we had a 50 yr roof installed as well. Even with the pool, our electric bill runs around $56/mo.
(So Ca)

Comment by Kidbuck
2014-09-19 17:29:29

25 years is dreaming. You’ll be replacing major components in less than 10 years.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 17:54:38

Yes and all the houses I bought in 2009 & 2010 will be worth nothing. So many positive, forward thinkers on this blog…..

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 19:23:30

Falling housing prices is positive J._Fraud.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-19 19:59:23

‘will be worth nothing’

I didn’t say that. But let’s start at 30% of what you paid. Oh, that would mean you’d have to bring money to the table that you don’t have and shoot, we have seen this before haven’t we?

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 23:30:20

“But let’s start at 30% of what you paid.”

As much as I would like to see that, I sincerely doubt the Fed, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac would allow it to happen.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-20 07:38:31

“…’d have to bring money to the table that you don’t have…..”

To what table will I be bringing money? You must assume I am selling…..

I have positive cash flow on all the properties. Why would I sell? Perhaps I will sell in 20 years. The properties will be free and clear. No cash needed then either. That is the beauty of the whole investment plan.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-20 08:04:39

And you must assume you’re not underwater.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-20 09:39:59

$750,000 in appreciation, $120,000 in principal reduction, $80,000 in cash flow, $16,000 in deferred taxes over the 4 years. It is a solid assumption.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-20 13:52:24

And not a buyer in sight for a fraction of what you paid. You got suckered.

Comment by Hi-Z
2014-09-19 19:19:34

If you are happy with what you did and the expected payoff, more power to you (humor)! Really, you only go through this life once so doing innovative and thoughtful things is what makes it life seem worthwhile.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-20 03:13:52

I am quite happy. Owning my own home and now, owning my own power supply are both very satisfying events.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-20 08:05:46

The bank owns your depreciating junk R._Fraud. You own nothing.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-20 09:42:56

It’s J_Fraud to you….try to pay attention for at least a few moments! HA!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-20 13:50:53

A distinction without a difference.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 05:21:50

I read a great article by someone about sears yesterday. They said every year sears stays open they bleed off equity from shareholders. Like I was saying about my trip to kmart the other day. Place was dead and lots of employees wandering around.

Shareholders will be the bagholders.

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-19 06:07:15

No, if things get bad, they can just borrow some money from the gubmint and buy back some shares driving up the price per share so shareholders will be happy. If they don’t get out in time before the collapse it’s their own fault.

Who’d own Sears or Kmarts stock anyway?

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:21:37

Well someone owns it or the price wouldn’t be at 28/ share with over 100 million shares outstanding. Wasn’t this a 200 stock awhile back?

I’m just saying its junk and riddled with shady insider rigging. It could collapse overnight when they finally file for bankruptcy after they suck out all the equity to pay executives.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 06:26:43

Don’t throw your money away on any of this junk including depreciating assets like houses. Save your cash. You’re going to need every penny of it.

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Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:32:57

land doesn’t depreciate and houses are like a basket of commodities. With proper maintenance the house will outlast you.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 06:37:56

There is a globe full of land and roughly 95% of it goes undeveloped and is highly speculative resulting in massive price swings unfounded on fundamentals.

Houses depreciate and those losses to depreciation that you mischaracterize as maintenance cost you $7k/yr. Those are your losses and yours alone.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:39:24

The market value of land certainly can drop, and even more so that of a basket of commodities!

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:50:10

they aint making anymore land!

Comment by oxide
2014-09-19 06:53:11

They aren’t making any more land within reasonable commuting distance to career jobs. That’s why DC is building mixed-use condo PUDS on top of every Metro station.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 06:53:45

“They” don’t need to.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:55:51

u have a lot of faith n paper dont you?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 06:58:08

Send your worthless paper to me Az_Fraud.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:07:00

I dont have any really. Tied up in deals.

Comment by Beer and Cigar Guy
2014-09-19 10:09:12

” Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:07:00

I dont have any really. Tied up in deals.”

I’m sure that illiquidity will work out really well for you in the near future.

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-19 07:08:48

I ordered BBQ replacement parts on line from Sears two years ago. Huge headache. 4 parts, 1 defective. Could not get any satisfaction resolution.

I vowed to never do business with Sears again. I probably spend $2-3k/year on line.

Comment by rms
2014-09-19 07:15:58

I vowed to never do business with Sears again.

“SALON: Sears is dying”

You shopped at Sears. You wore Toughskins jeans. You paged through the Fall/Winter catalog, thumbing frayed edges onto the toy section. You mowed your grass with a Craftsman lawnmower, and ate hamburgers off a Kenmore grill.

I know you shopped at Sears, because everyone shopped at Sears. In the history of the United States, there has been no more ubiquitous, unifying experience — religious, entertainment or retail — than shopping at Sears. For a culture that defines itself by consumption, it’s only fitting that this should be a department store. In 1972, the year Sears began building the world’s tallest building in downtown Chicago, three out of every four Americans visited one of its locations every year — a larger proportion than have seen “The Wizard of Oz.” Half of all households held a Sears credit card — more than go to church on Christmas. Sears’s sales accounted for 1 percent of the Gross National Product.

In an internal merchandising plan written later that decade, a Sears executive identified the company’s audience, and its identity: “Sears is a family store for middle-class, home-owning America. We are not a fashion store. We are not a store for the whimsical, nor the affluent. We are not a discounter, nor an avant-garde department store…We reflect the world of Middle America, and all of its desires and concerns and problems and faults.”

Unfortunately, it’s been all downhill for middle-class, home-owning America since then, and it’s been all downhill for Sears, too. That’s why William Taylor was standing on State Street in downtown Chicago last week, wearing a sandwich board that read “SEARS/UP TO 75% OFF/MUST ACT NOW/STORE CLOSING.”


Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:22:15

exactly dude

this a balance sheet page from home depot from 2010 -2014

look at shareholder equity

2010= 19.39Billion
2014= 12.52 billion

2010= 21 billion
2014= 28 billion

These companies are blatantly screwing shareholders and no one cares.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 08:26:17

Just imagine how ugly the picture will get when the Fed increases interest rates and the incentives for companies to borrow money for purchase of their own shares goes the way of the Echo Bubble…

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 07:36:02

sears article about the robbing of shareholders:

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Comment by ibbots
2014-09-19 08:35:53

I go to Sears to get my Diehard battery and usually walk around the store when it is being installed.

I bought a long sleeve t-shirt the last time I was there for $7 I think.

Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-19 09:23:14

The “Sears Tower” here in Ch*tcago ILLANNOY is no longer called the “Sears Tower” - it is now referred to as the Willis Tower. THAT in a nutshell is what has happened to America.

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Comment by MacBeth
2014-09-19 11:36:40

Seems here that people want Sears and Kmart to fail.

I don’t.

Yeah, perhaps both should be gone based on fundamentals. If you’re going to sue that yardstick, then GM also should be gone. So should any number of other companies, including a variety of tech companies.

Sears and Kmart were hurt by WalMart, which wisely capitalized on the burgeoning lower class. Sears didn’t spot the trend. WalMart did. It happens. (IBM not entering the computer industry is another - but I don’t hear anyone denigrating IBM as the joke it long ago became).

Much of the citizenry have fallen into the ranks of the lower class. Others, who found themselves starting there, haven’t been able to escape it.

I place much of the blame on Federal policies. Both parties.

Could it be that Sears didn’t readily identify the ineptness and corruption of Federal policy makers while WalMart did?

Could be.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-19 13:18:53

K-Mart got crushed by WalMart because K-Mart had a warehouse associated with every store, while WalMart had a regional distribution system. Thus, while K-Mart and WalMart both catered to the same people, WalMart could sell for lower prices.

K-Mart simply got beat by WalMart due to WalMart’s superior logistics capability.

Sears got crushed by the internet. Enclosed malls are doing poorly for the same reason, and Sears has a LOT of locations at malls, so foot traffic to the stores is way down. Additionally, you don’t need to “try on” a 7/16ths wrench. Most of the items at Sears are like this–so people can shop around online, and get a cheaper price for the same product.

It isn’t political–it’s more efficient retailers beating the crap out of less efficient retailers.

Comment by rms
2014-09-19 18:28:42

We used to travel to Spokane once a year to do our clothes shopping, browse the mall, go to River Front Park, spend the night in a hotel, etc., whereas these days we have a “size profile” for each of us at several on-line outlets such as L.L. Bean. The UPS truck is here in three days with our purchases. No driving costs, no hotel and meals expense, no hanging at the mall, etc., and I wouldn’t go back to the old ways either.

Yep, things have changed.

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Comment by Jingle Male
2014-09-20 07:44:29

Yes, things have changed. I recently purchased a new camera. I went on-line to research it and decided on a Panasonic Lumix model. I went to Fry’s, Target and Walmart. NONE of them even had the model. I went home and ordered it direct from Panasonic on-line.

Comment by Hi-Z
2014-09-19 19:25:42

I married in 1966 and raised two boys starting in the late 60’s. Sears was OUR place to shop as a family. High quality (made in USA) stuff with excellent return and “make good” policies. We spent many Saturday afternoons going our ways at Sears; I was in the tools, hardware, and lawn section where I could watch my boys in the sporting goods and toy section while wifey was off doing her thing. Good memories of days gone by. My boys grew up wearing Toughskins which were washed in Lady Kenmore washers and dryers.

Comment by inchbyinch
2014-09-19 21:48:12

OK, Sears comment. Richard Warren Sears was a marketing genius. He was a railroad employee, that bought a shipment of bad watches rejected by a jeweler, and with the eventual partnership with Roebuck, built a great company. Sears and Montgomery Wards even sold kit home through there catalogs 1908-1940 (Montgomery Wards=Wayward Homes). I am sad to see they lost their way in the retail jungle.

I remember the Sears Christmas Wish Book (catalog). Sears and JC Penneys are etched in my happy childhood memories, and Montgomery Wards gave us Rudolf The Red Nose Reindeer.(Their Copy Writer)

My Kenmore laundry pair last 17 years. My Kenmore side by side was given to friends, and lasted 30 years.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:17:19

With interest rates sleighted to stay indefinitely low and the labor market improving by leaps and bounds, Wall Street stock market investors must be experiencing paroxysms of joy for now.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:23:06

U.S. stocks: Futures higher as Fed rate view holds
Published: Sept 19, 2014 9:08 a.m. ET
By Anora Mahmudova
Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stock futures pushed higher on Friday, ahead of one of the world’s biggest initial public offerings ever, and as two major risk factors this week — Scotland and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting — proved to be no hindrance to markets.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 65 points, or 0.4%, to 17,243, while those for the S&P 500 index rose 5.6 points, or 0.3%, to 2,010.20. Futures for the Nasdaq-100 index jumped 15 points, or 0.4%, to 4,1109.75.

Leading indicators are due at 10 a.m. Eastern Time. At the same time, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher — a voting member of the Fed policy committee — discusses his dissent from Fed policy statement on Fox Business Network.

This week’s Fed meeting didn’t sway the investor belief that the central bank is committed to keeping interest rates low after monetary stimulus ends, borne out by the Fed’s meeting this week. The Dow industrials and the S&P 500 index indexes to closed at record levels on Thursday.

BTIG became the latest on Wall Street to lift its S&P 500 forecast on Thursday, raising its year-end price target to 2,075-2,100, from 1,980. ”Given the underperformance of so many and the seasonal bias that dominates the winter months, the bias remains to the upside for equities in the coming three months,” BTIG strategist Dan Greenhaus wrote on the company’s website.

But he added that his subsequent six to nine-month forecast isn’t nearly as optimistic, given a shift by the Fed to policy-tightening is going to lead to equity weakness.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:29:13

Are you as tired as I am about all this FED bs talk?

Comment by oxide
2014-09-19 06:50:32

Markets can stay irrational a lot longer than we can remain rational.

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Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:57:38

when the oligarchs say its time to flush, kiss your portfolio of paper certificates goodbye!

Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-09-19 07:08:35

This has nothing to do with markets any more.

Comment by oxide
2014-09-19 19:47:05

Guys, you do realize I was making a punny?

Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-19 09:24:58


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Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:26:32

buy now while you can! When do you think they will engineer the next crisis to flush mom and pop?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:31:09

I give it less than six months, as I have a hard time imagining a brighter stock market picture to lure in the greater fools at a market top.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:36:18

Its lasted a lot longer than I thought. Like they say, markets can stay irrational a lot longer than you can remain solvent.

They want to make you feel like you missed out on something.

Some cnbc shrill went after bill fleckenstein the other day about missing the rally. His comment was, “who cares”.

That’s part of the game. Make you feel like you are missing out and suck you back in .

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 07:06:27

More reason to save every penny you can get your hands on and stay out of debt. You’ll be glad you did.

Comment by Selfish Hoarder
2014-09-19 19:25:06

And more reason to use any silly excuse to sell a few more shares of your biggest long term stock gains. My celebration for this week’s sell off is going to go into 52-week T-bills. Have some gold-buying coming up veeeeery soon, so my requirement is lots of extra cash, maybe $2 for every $1 in gold I buy in a couple weeks.

Shoot. Even with gold dropping, it’s done better over the last 12 months than my $tens of thousands of dollars of staffing company stock. The turning point was about five weeks ago. Other top staffing companies are circling down the little whirlpool in the white porcelain bathroom fixture.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:27:52

IMF sounds the alarm on stock prices with two charts
September 18, 2014, 11:51 AM ET

Not to be left out of the crowd thinking the sky will fall on this market rally, the International Monetary Fund slipped out a note late Wednesday, sounding its own alarm over perceived stretchy stock valuations.

The comments were made in a note released ahead of a G-20 meeting in Australia later this month. Along with its stock warning, the IMF cautioned that downside risks for the global economy are on the rise, even as the fund expects the recovery to regain a foothold following a bumpy first half to the year.

The global body spoke of fresh worries in the form of geopolitical tensions, mostly of the Russian and Middle Eastern varieties, a sharp reversal of recent risk spread and declining volatility.

So here’s the clincher on those IMF stock worries:

Valuations in virtually all major asset classes are stretched relative to past norms.

The IMF noted those valuations have gone up despite mixed signals on the global recovery’s strength and geopolitical tensions. That’s while long-term bond yields have declined just about everywhere — Europe, the U.S. and most emerging economies. And capital flows going into emerging markets have remained positive, keeping equity and currency prices mostly stable since April. Of course, recent currency volatility makes the IMF statement slightly outdated.

With implied volatility back down to levels seen before Fed tapering talk began, the IMF said it’s concerned about a buildup of excessive leverage and underpricing of credit risk, which could be “abruptly corrected in the run-up to U.S. rate hikes or because of higher global risk aversion.”

The IMF uses the following charts to back up that assessment.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 17:38:50

The IMF is doing a great job of getting the truth out about the global economic picture!

ft dot com > Markets >


September 19, 2014 1:55 pm

IMF warns of emerging markets slowdown

By Robin Harding in Washington

Emerging markets are suffering an unprecedented and broad-based slowdown that threatens the future of the global economy, researchers at the International Monetary Fund have warned.

Not only did emerging market growth stall in the wake of the financial crisis, it has kept falling across a wide range of countries and unlike in advanced economies the IMF does not forecast a recovery.

The slowdown marks a big change in the pattern of global growth and the spillovers could hurt advanced economies, too, warn the researchers.

“Emerging markets as a group were growing at about 7 per cent before the crisis,” said Hamid Faruqee, a division chief in the IMF’s research department. “We now see them growing at about 5 per cent going forward.”

The Fund’s paper finds that growth is slower across a swath of developing countries, not just the largest economies such as China and India. Expansion rates in more than 90 per cent of emerging markets are lower than before the 2008 turmoil.

“The slowdown seems to be quite broad based,” said Mr Faruqee. Such a synchronised deceleration is unique outside of a recession or financial crisis.

According to the IMF research, trade links are an important reason for the slowdown, with emerging markets suffering from weaker growth in their trading partners. But there are also signs of deeper problems, with evidence that productivity improvements are contributing less to growth.

“The fact that we project some rebound in growth for the advanced economies and are lowering it for the emerging economies is suggestive of something internal among the EMs,” said Mr Faruqee.

According to the IMF’s estimates, a one percentage point slowdown in emerging market growth lowers growth in advanced economies by quarter of a percentage point because of reduced trade.

That means the 2 percentage point reduction in emerging market growth since before the financial crisis could mean a 0.5 percentage point reduction in growth for rich countries such as the US. This suggests the weakness in developing countries could be an important reason for the recent growth disappointments in advanced economies.

The IMF said an emerging market slowdown could also mean lower commodity prices and possible trouble for banks that have overextended their lending in countries where growth has abated.

Comment by rms
2014-09-19 18:30:50
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Comment by Shillow
2014-09-19 06:23:06

I think all the Nanny State shills on this blog are off on flex-Friday plans.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-09-19 10:58:54


If they were at work, there’d be a lot more posts…

Comment by real journalists
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 14:59:17

Sessions is quite mistaken. America IS in fact an oligarchy where the Masters of the Universe DO decide immigration law (and have their lobbyists dictate said law to their bought and paid for congressional whores).

Comment by real journalists
Comment by real journalists
Comment by real journalists
Comment by rms
2014-09-19 07:13:15

I’ve never understood people who live in dependency having children.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 07:21:02

Throw logic out the window when it comes to breeders

Adopting shelter pets > breeding

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-19 08:42:18

Adopting shelter pets > breeding


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Comment by Overbanked
2014-09-19 09:35:27

Eating shelter pets > adopting shelter pets

There aren’t enough calories to go around.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-09-19 08:44:12

The bulk of the growth was anticipated in Africa, where the population is expected to rise from one billion today to four billion by the end of the century.

Given that they can’t feed their current population, how exactly will this future horde be fed?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 15:00:29

Monsanto GMO franken-corn?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 06:37:43

No-brainer money making strategy for anyone who makes their living by investing:

- Short U.S. Treasurys
- Buy MBS that the Fed buys

When the Fed sells Treasurys but hangs on to MBS, the spread will widen, pushing down the value of Treasurys relative to MBS.

Market Pulse
Richmond Fed’s Lacker says he objects to plan not to sell MBS
Published: Sept 19, 2014 8:03 a.m. ET
By Steve Goldstein
D.C. bureau chief

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker on Friday said he objects to the Federal Reserve’s plan not to sell mortgage-backed securities from its balance sheet when it comes time to normalize policy. “I believe this approach unnecessarily prolongs our interference in the allocation of credit. The Fed’s MBS holdings may put downward pressure on mortgage rates, compared to holding an equivalent amount of Treasury securities, but if so, then other borrowers would likely face higher interest rates,” he said.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 06:54:25

I know someone who is still living rent free in s cal after stop paying their mortgage in 2008. It is a million dollar home too. If you figure 3000/ month rent * 6 years is 216,000.00 in stimulous.

I’m not so sure how valuable that mbs really is.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 06:57:47

This Sunday Peyton will destroy the Fleahawks 45-10

And with 50% off all Denver area Papa John’s orders the day after the Broncos win, this Monday I will consume three orders of cheese sticks and three large pepperoni pizzas, lest I starve through the bye week until this undefeated season resumes on October 5

Comment by Shillow
2014-09-19 07:35:03

Are you getting ripped off? We get 1/2 price after Diamondbacks wins and Cardinals for Papa Johns in PHX. Way more baseball games than football.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-09-19 08:46:10

You only get ripped off if you buy Papa John’s disgusting pizza at any price.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 08:48:18

The Rockies are loosers this year so my only hope to fatten up to 280 pounds rests with Peyton. I lost a lot of weight this summer and am running out of belt loops to keep my pants from falling down.

Comment by drumminj
2014-09-19 09:10:56

running out of belt loops to keep my pants from falling down.

Try using a staple gun? ;)

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Comment by rms
2014-09-19 11:49:28

“…running out of belt loops to keep my pants from falling down.”

Hehe. Well,,, there’s Viagra?

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Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-19 09:29:28


Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 07:02:36

Median income stagnant since 2010?

There is no “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes

Not today, not tomorrow, not ever


Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 07:12:51

File this under millennials are broke @ss loosers

So instead of renting for less than half the cost of buying, these kidz throw their parents’ money down the toilet on overpriced rotting shacks

“Without them, the recovery’s not sustainable”

There is no recovery, you LIAR

Comment by Neuromance
2014-09-19 07:18:54

One for X-GSfixr: excellent video from a smoke-filled cabin on a passenger airliner (A320) which had to make an emergency landing Thursday morning due to some sort of massive engine failure:

Comment by Neuromance
2014-09-19 07:25:24

The FIRE sector is not your friend, it’s your competitor, in most if not all FIRE-related transactions.

I heard about the DC “Century Bond” and thought, wow, that’s a real breakdown in the system of checks and balances. Politicians get their money and doubtless cronies got their cut and future generations are put on the hook. Brilliant. Yeah, it does some infrastructure work - but at what cost, and who benefits?

What has started to concern me in recent years is the breakdown of that system of checks and balances. The facade of the system still exists, but it’s being undermined by money in politics. So when politicians go to shake down big donors, they wind up becoming their lapdogs as well. Both master and lapdog. If you don’t play - pay them protection money - it’s not going to go well for you. If you do - you give up some cash and get legal protection and favors.

Washington Authority Sells First Public Utility Century Bonds
By Elizabeth Campbell Jul 10, 2014 5:55 PM ET

The District of Columbia Water & Sewer Authority sold $350 million of taxable bonds to be repaid in 100 years, marking the first issuance of century bonds by a U.S. public utility.

The authority increased the deal by $50 million from its original $300 million offering, and moved the sale date from next week to today, said Mark Kim, DC Water’s chief financial officer. Orders were placed for about $1.1 billion, and buyers included insurance companies and pensions, he said.

The structure of this transaction offered a lot to the market,” Kim said in a telephone interview. “It was a very highly rated credit coming into this space in very favorable market conditions.”

Comment by Neuromance
2014-09-19 07:36:10

Banks are squealing about how they’re being squeezed. Getting rid of free checking for one thing and slapping on more subtle fees. The audacity is amazing. Here are organizations which have had at least hundreds of billions firehosed at them, have their own central bank looking out for their welfare and they’ve still got their hands out clutching for more pretending they’re being squeezed by ever more regulation (i.e. their ability to be openly fraudulent is being somewhat constrained).

Audacity. But, hey, I guess it paid off in 2008 when they helped cause the financial crisis with bad debt, and plagued the world economy with bad debt. A Goldman Sachs CEO and Tim “Not a regulator” Geithner along with The Bernank crafted the bailouts and the policy regime since.

An individual is going to pay a higher price for shoplifting a 150 dollar cart full of groceries than these FIRE executives paid for stealing billions.

Comment by 2banana
2014-09-19 08:07:27

Why is John Corzine (the largest of obama’s campaign bundlers) not in jail…?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 15:02:15

All animals are equal, but some animals are more equal than others.

Comment by aNYCdj
Comment by 2banana
2014-09-19 08:04:38

One good investing rule:

Never, ever invest in anything with the Trump name on it…

Comment by 2banana
2014-09-19 07:57:44

“Liberalism is a luxury for those insulated from it by wealth and privilege.” -Thomas Lifson, The American Thinker

Where the Middle Class Goes to Die: In progressive Manhattan, inequality is maxed out.
National Review | 09/19/2014 | Kevin D. Williamson

A new report being released today by the Census Bureau finds that Manhattan has the highest level of income inequality in the United States. That is not entirely surprising, though it would also not have been surprising if it had been San Francisco or another progressive fiefdom. For all the rhetoric about wicked 1 percenters and inequality, progressivism is a luxury good, and progressive-dominated enclaves are generally pretty okay places to live if you have a fair amount of money, but sort of stink if you’re in the middle or at the lower end of the earnings curve.

Because most Americans experience New York City as tourists or in television shows and movies, it is easy to forget that the hometown of Wall Street and a very large population of obnoxious celebrities is a poor city: New York City is not only poorer than the New York State average, its median household income is, in absolute dollar terms, lower than that of such dramatically less expensive areas as Austin, Texas, or Cleveland County, Okla., where the typical household income is a few thousand dollars a year more than in New York City but the typical house costs less than a third of what the typical New York City home costs — and 17 percent of what the average Manhattan home costs. (And it’s a house, not a two-room coop.)

What is particularly salient about the progressive governance of places such as New York City and San Francisco is not the income inequality coincident with it — which has many causes, only some of which are directly related to public policy — but the myriad ways in which misgovernment makes these cities such hostile places to live for people of relatively modest means.

The most obvious issue is the cost of housing, which for New Yorkers is about four times what it is for Texans. Housing prices are a function of supply and demand, and demand for New York City housing is relatively high, a fact that probably does not have very much to do with public policy. I have lived in New York City for some time, and I have never met anybody who says he moved here because it is so well governed.

On the other hand, supply is highly restricted, and that is a direct consequence of bad public policy, an economic reality that is obvious even to such sympathetic progressives as Matt Yglesias, who sensibly notes that limitations on the number of new housing units in places such as Washington, D.C., biases construction toward high-priced luxury homes, while hostile zoning codes in places such as San Francisco prevent markets from responding to demand and lead to “deliberately underutilized” mass-transit arteries. In New York City, housing prices are kept artificially high by draconian restrictions on new construction, rent control and the less aggressive “rent stabilization,” political interference with development financing, onerous union rules that drive up construction prices, byzantine regulation that imposes enormous compliance costs, and more. Even in a city in which four of the five boroughs are located on islands, there are vast tracts of underused real estate, the development of which could alleviate housing expenses for the middle class and the poor.

There is also the problem of the 13th month’s rent in New York City.

If you earn the median income of $52,223 in New York City and you live within the city limits — not just in Manhattan but in the distant Bronx and Staten Island, too — you pay the city nearly $1,800 a year in additional income tax for the privilege. You can basically forget about owning a home — the median house price in the city is more than a half a million dollars — but renting won’t be easy, either: Applying New York landlords’ prevailing 40-times-the-rent rule, you can afford about $1,300 a month; not impossible if you’re single, but a substantial challenge for a family. But in any case, you’ll be paying a 13th month’s rent and change to the city for the privilege of residing within its boundaries. Assuming you are single, taxes and rent would consume between 50 percent and 60 percent of your income. Move to Houston, and you’d get a $3,000-a-year discount before even accounting for the lower cost of housing.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:02:28

ScrewYork….. A place where getting nailed is the softer gentler way.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-09-19 11:14:35

NOTE: Next time anyone of this board visits Washington, DC, I suggest you take 1 day simply to drive around the city and its environs. And not for the sightseeing that Washingtonians push upon visitors.

What you’ll see is as illuminating as anything you’d see at the Smithsonian, the memorials, cemeteries, White House, Monument or Georgetown bars/universities/eateries.

Just drive the city and the neighborhoods. One full day and night.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-19 11:54:55

There are a lot of words there without much content. People have been saying that NYC is or is becoming a city for only the rich and the poor for at least 50 years, before many of the policies that this guy doesn’t like were enacted.

New York City also has the lowest crime rate of any big American, which would include Houston. The public transportation system is also a lot better, which allows more New Yorkers to live without owning a car, which saves a lot of money. So New Yorkers get something for the higher taxes that they pay.

Finally, this guy mentions “housing prices are kept artificially high by draconian restrictions on new construction”. He must have missed the news a few months ago that the current mayor, who’s probably the most lefty mayor in the last 50 years, has proposed new laws which will make more land available for development. (Note that there’s also a swipe at unions in that section, indicating hostility towards the working class.)

Of course, it’s hard to tell if that will help with the cost of living situation. The availability of more housing may just encourage more people to move to the city from all over the country and all over the world, eliminating the hope for any decline in rents.

Comment by 2banana
2014-09-19 08:02:58

Government guaranteeing the availability of easy, low/no-obligation education loans without being able to discharge these loan in a simple bankruptcy has single-handedly ruined higher education.

Time To Stop The Sob Stories About Student Loan Debt
Forbes | 09/19/2014 | Jeffrey Dorfman

The New York Times informed its readers last week that there are now two million people over 60 years old that still have student loan debt, with an average loan balance of $21,000. To put this report in context, those two million seniors represent only three percent of all people in that age bracket and the average balance of $21,000 is only 78 percent of the size of the average car loan ($27,000). Assumedly many more than three percent of Americans over the age of 60 have car loans, yet nobody thinks that is a crisis.

Earlier this summer, The New York Times also implied that student loan debt is blocking younger Americans from buying homes. In reality, as the Times admits later in their article, the rate at which young people are buying homes is simply returning to its previous level because today’s young can see that the twenty-five year real estate bubble is over and there is no need to rush into home ownership.

Similarly, back in the spring, The New York Times told us a series of sob stories about recent graduates buried under crushing burdens of student loan debt. While the media seem endlessly able to find stories of students with six-figure student loan debts and little in the way of job prospects with which to pay off those debts, such cases are far from common.

Research by Beth Akers and Matthew Chingos at The Brookings Institution revealed much about the student loan debt reality. While the average student loan balance is $29,000, that is only for the minority of people with any student loans (36 percent of those between 20 and 40). In other words, most young people have no student loan debt. Also, the average balance is greatly inflated by the presence of a few people with large balances. In fact, only four percent of households headed by people between 20 and 40 years old have student loan debt of over $36,000 per person and two-thirds of those have a graduate degree to show for that debt.

Further, the median student loan balance (meaning half the people owe more and half owe less) is only $8,500, again only for those who have any student loans at all. That implies that about 82 percent of households headed by those between 20 and 40 owe less than $8,500 in student loans (including those who owe nothing). If we assume that those with graduate degrees can generally handle their student loan debt, then Akers and Chingos’ numbers imply there are likely only about 250,000 households with high loan balances who we should expect to have problems paying back their loans. Certainly such a number is not zero, but it is hardly a crisis.

According to TransUnion, the mortgage delinquency rate stands at 3.5 percent. This is higher than the rate of student loan borrowers who seem to have debt levels likely to cause problems. So why is the default rate on student loans so much higher (14.7 percent)? The answer seems to be not that student loan debt is so high as much as it is that borrowers simply choose not to prioritize payment of their student loans.

If one simply stops paying student loans, the federal government can seize your tax refund (if you are owed one) and might eventually take part of your paycheck (or government benefit check), but many borrowers apparently do not see such actions as likely. Thus, they would rather pay their mortgage, their car loan (delinquency rate of 0.95 percent), their credit cards (delinquency rate of 1.16 percent), or simply spend money on more enjoyable items than their student loans.

Comment by ibbots
2014-09-19 10:32:43

I think I may default on my student loans and then buy them for pennies on the dollar from the secondary market!

Occupy Abolishes Almost $4,000,000 in Student Debt

Comment by Dman
2014-09-19 08:23:52

New York City is expensive because of progressive policies? Maybe it’s expensive because its progressive policies make people want to live there.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:30:56

Clearly you know nothing about the hood called NYC.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-09-19 11:22:56

Dman is probably correct, HA.

Doesn’t mean that progressive cities are good/feasible places for most people to live. They certainly aren’t as diverse as progressives want to believe.

In fact, such places are increasingly and rapidly becoming the opposite.

Crony-socialism at its best.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 13:14:40

Well take a stroll through one of the boroughs sometime and note the bars on the windows everywhere you look.

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Comment by MacBeth
2014-09-19 14:36:58

Not disagreeing.

If you go to D.C., you’ll see the same thing. In fact, you see a veritable checkerboard of “good neighborhood”, “bad neighborhood”.

As in NYC, the piggies have their wealthy enclaves which they all flock to. They wouldn’t dream of living anywhere else.

They also work very hard on keeping everyone else out.

The m.o. of crony socialists.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 14:47:54

They don’t have to work to keep most of out. And 90% of the population can’t wait to bail on the place.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 08:30:44

Don’t look now, but the bond market yield curve is trying hard to invert against a backdrop of unprecedented intervention.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 08:34:05

Credit Markets
U.S. Treasury Market Goes Off Script
Gap Between Short- and Long-Term Yields Narrows
By Min Zeng
Sept. 18, 2014 7:44 p.m. ET

The crosscurrents roiling the bond market intensified Thursday, as the gap between short- and long-term U.S. Treasury yields narrowed in the latest sign of uncertainty over the pace of U.S. growth.

Yields on short-term U.S. Treasury debt maturing in two to five years hit the highest level since 2011, reflecting an investor scramble to place bets on an expected Federal Reserve rate increase as soon as next spring. Yields rise when prices fall.

The selloff in short-term government debt extended a pullback that began following Wednesday’s Federal Reserve decision to end its bond purchases later this year.

At the same time, yields on government debt maturing in 10 or more years have risen only modestly this week and remain well below their levels at the start of 2014, a year that many analysts forecast would include rising long-term interest rates and falling bond prices. The 10-year U.S. Treasury note was 8/32 lower, yielding 2.629%. That is the highest closing level since July 3 but compares with 3% at the end of 2013.

The softness of longer-term yields highlights concerns shared by many analysts and policy makers about the uneven growth of the U.S. economy and falling expectations for inflation. Investors broadly expect the Fed to raise the fed funds rate next year for the first time since 2006. But many analysts say that even a small uptick in rates could slow the economy and send already-low inflation further below the Fed’s target.

“The bottom line is that the bond market continues to signal that the Fed can pursue its normalization of interest rates, but that when it does so, it will constrain growth and lower inflation to the point that they fail on their mandate and damage the recovery process,” said Richard Gilhooly, senior U.S. rates strategist at TD Securities in New York.

Rising short-term rates typically are accompanied by higher long-term rates in a robustly growing economy. The recent shift of U.S. short- and long-term yields underscores uncertainty over the outlook.

Comment by ibbots
2014-09-19 08:32:42

Dallas-Fort Worth is ranked as one of the best markets in the country to sell a house, according to a new study.

Zillow Inc. said the D-FW area is the fourth best place in the country for home sellers

“Sellers in the Bay Area, Seattle and Dallas have the most negotiating power, with final sale prices largely at or above asking,” Zillow’s report says.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 08:41:10

If you can find a buyer at any price.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 08:39:22

Ultra-low rates are tempting commodities price fixers to store oil off-market at sea. It’s pretty funny how the MSM takes illegal price fixing for granted these days.

Of course, the collusion may well backfire, as a product glut against a backdrop of weak demand suggests falling prices for the foreseeable future. And on that note, I am soon off to CostCo to snap me up some discounted gasoline.

Oil-Price Quirk Sends Crude Out to Sea
Companies, Traders Stash Oil to Capitalize on Rare Split
By Christian Berthelsen and Cassie Werber
Updated Sept. 18, 2014 7:28 p.m. ET
Sinopec leased the 3.2 million-barrel supertanker TI Europe, above, to hold crude in storage, and plans to pick up more cargoes in the coming days. Euronav

Big oil companies and traders are stashing millions of barrels of crude on massive tankers bobbing in the ocean, in a bid to profit from a quirk in oil markets.

Instead of moving crude from one port to another, a growing number of tankers are serving as floating warehouses for companies including Sinopec Ltd. and Vitol Group, according to people with knowledge of their operations. Other companies such as Mercuria Energy Group are using the tankers to haul crude to on-shore storage facilities, these people said.

In a rare split, crude is cheaper in the spot market than in the futures market, where bets are made on where prices will be in the months ahead. By buying physical stocks of oil and immediately selling futures, traders can lock in a profit.

The storage trade isn’t without its pitfalls. If interest rates or storage costs rapidly increase, the costs of the trade could eclipse the money earned from the future sale. Also, some traders say the window to put on the trade could close if demand picks up while supplies wane. The risks were on display Thursday when a late move narrowed the price gap between contracts for near-month delivery and the following month to below the level needed for the strategy to be profitable.

The tankers, weighing as much as 550,000 tons and stretching up to 1,300 feet long, store the oil until the trade is unwound. So do land-based storage facilities, which are filling up as well.

The amount of oil tied up in the strategy has risen to between 25 million and 50 million barrels of crude from almost zero as of April, oil-market traders and analysts estimate, based on trading and ship-chartering data. That amount represents more than one to two days’ worth of U.S. demand.

More than 70 million barrels were stored as part of the trade in April 2009, the last time spot prices stayed below futures prices for a sustained period, according to Energy Aspects, a London-based research and consulting firm.

The spike in oil being stored on the high seas has caught the attention of many investors, who say it is the hallmark of a global supply glut and signals that oil prices—already at two-year lows—are likely to keep falling.

“It shows that there’s oversupply in the market due to weak demand,” said Amrita Sen, an analyst with Energy Aspects.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 09:02:34

Bulletin First Alibaba shares trade on NYSE at $92.70 »

A blog about living in and planning for retirement
Dismal Fed data on retirement saving
September 18, 2014, 2:14 PM ET
By Alicia H. Munnell
The Fed depicts gloomy times for boomers with 401(k)s and IRAs.

The Federal Reserve has just released the 2013 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), a triennial survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. households, which collects detailed data on their assets, liabilities, and demo­graphic characteristics. It is considered the gold standard of information on income and wealth.

Overall, this year’s report is very discouraging. For American households, both median income and median wealth have declined since 2010.

But retirement is our game, so we turned immediately to combined 401(k)/IRA balances – particularly for those approaching retirement. The great advantage of the SCF is that it provides information not only on 401(k) balances, much of which is available from financial-services firms, but also on household holdings in IRAs. While 401(k) plans serve as the gateway for retirement saving, more than half of the money collected now resides in IRAs. The relevant question is how much do households hold in these two sources combined.

Candidly, I had already drafted an Issue Brief on the assumption that the positive developments of the last few years – a recovering economy, strong stock performance, and the continuing maturation of the 401(k) system – would have pushed combined 401(k)/IRA holdings considerably higher than the $120,000 reported for 2010. (This figure differs from the value of “retirement accounts” presented by the Fed because it pertains only to those households that are working and have a 401(k) plan; those that are not working or only have an IRA are excluded.)

The new numbers are both surprising and discouraging – particularly for those approaching retirement (as my completed Issue Brief reflects). The SCF shows for households age 55-64 a surprising decline in 401(k)/IRA balances, from a median of $120,000 in 2010 to $111,000 in 2013. Savings of $111,000 will only provide roughly $500 per month in income; and since that amount is not indexed for inflation, its purchasing power will decline over time. The only bright spot in the numbers is a significant increase in holdings for households age 45-54.

Comment by palmetto
2014-09-19 11:18:26

“First Alibaba shares trade on NYSE at $92.70 »”

Lol, what a complete scam babawawa is. I dunno who is going to end up without a chair in this one, but I look forward to future tales of babawawa’s manipulated figures and such. The Chinese won’t touch it, I’m hearing. Hence, the US IPeeYo.

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 14:49:28

another ponzi ipo? U still have sheep buying. must be the millenials trying to pay off student loans.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 17:41:25

The American family makes $200 more a year than it did in 1989
By Rex Nutting
Published: Sept 5, 2014 7:50 a.m. ET
Analysis: The recovery from the Great Recession is still far away. The share of wealth owned by the top 3% of American families has risen, while the shares owned by everyone else has fallen.

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — As of a year ago, typical U.S. households still hadn’t recovered all of the wealth they lost in the Great Recession of 2008-09, according to the latest Survey of Consumer Finances released by the Federal Reserve on Thursday.

Median net worth fell 2% (inflation-adjusted) between 2010 and 2013 to $81,200 per family, down about 40% from the $135,400 they had in 2007, just before home prices and stock prices plunged, the Fed reported. (The median means that half of families had more wealth, and half had less. Net worth is the value of all assets minus the value of all liabilities or debts.)

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2014-09-19 09:42:43

ooooh, oooh, look @ silver below $18/ troy ounce.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 13:22:07

One of my relatives with one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel recently sent me 40lbs of sterling silverware wrapped in cheesecloth.

Should I make an appearance at Pawn Stars shop soon?

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 14:47:44

pawn it for rent cheapo

how many shares of baba did you buy today?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 14:51:57

Clackamas, OR Housing Prices Turn Negative On Year; Down 4% As Inventory Billows 20%

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 17:42:25

Time for dips to buy?

Comment by goon squad
2014-09-19 09:42:56

‘four in 10 family dollar shoppers have a household income of less than $25,000′

a nation of broke @ss loosers

Comment by rms
2014-09-19 12:18:43

“a nation of broke @ss loosers”

+1 A nation of obese broke @ss lösers.

Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-19 10:06:10

Another Day another Yellin:
This fiscal tyrant is just out of her mind - where are the folks gonna save when costs continue to escalate for the vast majority of them? Get outta the DEE CEE Bubble dome there Yellin and drive 100 miles west and see how the folks are livin!!!

Comment by In Colorado
2014-09-19 10:51:20

The contemporary version of “let them eat cake”

Comment by azdude
2014-09-19 12:03:51

what is there to save?

Comment by rj chicago
2014-09-19 14:09:33

Not much - a few trillion in debt here and a few trillion there - who is counting!?

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Comment by rj chicago
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-19 15:24:03

Ben, you asked recently how much of the newer delinquencies were from new loans vs. old.

Take a look at page 8 of this presentation:

80% of the 90+ day delinquencies are from 2008 or earlier loans.

Also note page 5–new delinquencies are back to pre-crash levels (consistentwith page 8).

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 15:57:12

Give it a few months R._Fraud. Its early in the game yet.

Comment by Rental Watch
2014-09-19 16:59:33

We only have to wait a few months longer? Great. I’ll check back on this in a few months. Although I suspect we won’t see a spike in delinquencies for the 2009+ mortgages then either.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-19 17:02:49

You do that R._Fraud.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-19 18:02:39

‘I suspect we won’t see a spike in delinquencies for the 2009+ mortgages’

This is where you are missing the point. Most defaults are from the highest price loan time period. I said the other day, the recent $1 million median in SF, for example, would then suggest loans made at these nosebleed prices will see defaults as well. It’s that simple. High prices mean future defaults. 2013-14 defaults for the bay area will be as bad or worse.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 15:32:39

Apparently, Apple’s creepy idea of spamming 500 million iTunes users with a crappy album from a has-been group of corporate wankers has backfired.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 15:35:08

Goldman Sachs ripped off yet another “client” (muppet) - Libyan dictator Qaddaffi - which might help explain the urgency of the latter’s overthrow and the devolution of Libya into anarchy at the hands of Islamist militias.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-19 15:57:36

Admitting That Gun Control Doesn’t Work, D.C. Mayor Calls For More Gun Control

by Brian Anderson | Downtrend | September 19, 2014

The great thing about arguing gun control with leftist ninnies is that you don’t have to argue at all; they talk themselves into a corner leaving us pro-2A types free to sit back and laugh.

Yesterday at a Navy Yard shooting memorial Washington DC Mayor Vincent Gray made an impassioned speech about the need for more gun control, all the while providing proof that tough gun laws do nothing to reduce crime.

“Residents of our city lost friends and neighbors; they lost mothers and fathers; they lost colleagues and they lost fellow church members,” said Gray.

But how can this be? Washington DC has some of the strictest gun control laws in the nation. Until recently, handguns were completely banned and the carrying of firearms was prohibited. If gun control laws work, wouldn’t DC be the safest place in the country?

Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-19 16:34:29

If gun control laws work, wouldn’t DC be the safest place in the country?

Maybe it’s not that simple. Maybe some gun control laws work and others don’t.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-19 16:02:34

The Sheep Have Bleated

Political thinking has trained people to believe in the 51% principle

by Butler Shaffer | | September 19, 2014

I once read that “Scotland has more sheep than people,” and the quadrupeds stampeded to the polls to vote against the proposition that they liberate themselves from their historic enclosure. “Independence is a b-a-a-a-d idea,” many were heard to say.

The campaign against the proposition recited the lemming mantra, “together is better.” Taken literally, the oft-heard phrase “no thanks to independence” carries the message “dependency is preferable to the sense of responsibility that is implicit in liberty.” That 55% of the voters could be so terrified of their independence is a reflection of how years of conditioning in the virtues of subservience produce the herd mindset.

The mainstream media informed us that David Cameron was greatly pleased by the outcome. It is the nature of politics that this statement is true. Political thinking has trained people to believe in the 51% principle: no idea is worthwhile unless 51% of the public believes in it. But imagine a man with nine children, and four of them dislike the father so much that they want to vote to have all siblings leave home. The vote is held and, by a 5 to 4 margin, the pro-big daddy side wins. Would any loving psychologically-healthy man consider this to be a great personal victory?

Opponents of this measure were quick to announce that the question of Scottish independence has been settled, “once and for all,” words that mean “when we get the outcome we want, the issue can never be brought up again.”

All-in-all, the outcome of this vote was a referendum on the ageless choice people must make between individual liberty and collective security. That 45% of my Scot relatives made the choice for liberation is not only encouraging, but a sign of the greater movement by which men and women are working to end the destructive nature of politically-directed society. As for the 55% naysayers, they can return to the quietude of their pen, to await whatever fate their duly-elected Judas-sheep has planned for them.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 16:08:27

Scottish boomers - part of the most feckless generation this planet has ever known - voted overwhelmingly for continued union with the UK, since they cling to the delusion that by shafting younger generations, they can enjoy their golden years on the backs of today’s workers and the unborn. However, young people - 16 and 17 year olds were allowed to vote - went overwhelmingly (71%) for independence, preferring a Scotland for the Scots instead of being involuntary serfs to the robber barons of Westminister.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-19 16:32:35

There’s so much nonsense in this one, I don’t know where to begin.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 16:35:32

Like you always do - bleat and let the border collie chase you back into your pen.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-09-19 17:20:11

So you agree with this writer. People who disagree with you are sheep. That’s just another content-free assertion.

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-19 17:57:32

No, I may or may not agree with the author, but you are a sheep regardless of the content of any article in any publication. Baaaaaaaa! Baaaaaaaaa!

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-19 20:45:19

If there had been a vote of the one day US colonies to disassociate themselves with England, it would have gone down in a much lower result than the Scots. We should remember that most people are sheep, afraid of their shadows, and not worry too much about things like this.

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 16:09:04

we were going to write an article about the regions of fema, but out editor got a phone call from someone in washington telling us to kill the article

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 16:34:37

John Lennon - Gimme Some Truth:

Comment by real journalists
2014-09-19 16:54:28

Traffic - Shouldn’t Have Took More Than You Gave

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-09-19 17:48:07

Inspired by Scotland: Quarter of Americans want their states to secede from US
Published time: September 19, 2014 17:29
Reuters/Kevin Lamarque

Scotland may not have followed in Sir William Wallace’s footsteps to free itself from its English bonds, but that hasn’t stopped nearly a quarter of Americans from a little bravehearted hope of their states seceding from the US.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll sought to see if Thursday’s Scottish independence referendum ‒ which failed ‒ inspired Americans to dream of secession from the United States. According to the results, 23.9 percent of those surveyed either strongly supported or tended to support the idea of their state breaking away from the union.

Both Democrats and Republicans supported the idea of severing ties with the federal government, though the Grand Old Party (along with residents from the West and Southwest) was more in favor of secession than Dems and Northeasterners.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-09-20 05:41:17

Yet these same slack-jawed wonders continue to vote for the Republicrat duopoly, then wonder why things continue to get worse.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-09-19 20:03:08


You can check out anytime you like, but you can never leave.

Comment by Gladys
2014-09-22 18:16:45

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