September 22, 2014

This Great Start Kind Of Stopped

The Sun Sentinel reports from Florida. “Investors pulling back on homebuying is one of the biggest issues facing South Florida’s housing market, an analyst said Friday. ‘There’s still a lot of investor activity, but it is declining,’ said Brad O’Connor, a research economist for the Florida Realtors trade group. ‘As they exit the market, will demand from traditional homebuyers still push prices up?’ So far, the answer is yes, but some industry experts wonder whether that will change. They say investors have played too large of a role in the housing rebound by artificially inflating prices.”

The News and Observer in North Carolina. “Triangle home sales were flat in August compared with the same period a year ago as the market continues to level off after experiencing double-digit gains last year. Jason Graves, an agent with Triangle Real Estate Group, said the Triangle is not creating enough jobs to sustain the level of sales activity that the region experienced last year. ‘I just don’t think we’ve seen the hiring we need to see,’ he said. ‘Fortunately the market has returned – absolutely it’s returned. But it’s like we jumped off to this great start and kind of stopped.’”

The Arizona Republic. “Home building across metro Phoenix fell in August to the slowest pace in more than a year, according to the latest research from RL Brown Housing Reports, down 29 percent from August 2013 and down 18 percent from July of this year. ‘The decline in permits reflects the general malaise affecting the regional economy,’ said housing analyst Brown.”

The Record in New Jersey. “The multifamily residential rental market is one of the hottest commercial real estate segments in North Jersey, with a swell of development planned and existing properties fetching top prices. But some developers and housing experts are wondering when, and where, the bubble will burst. ‘Any market that gets super hot eventually has got to cool off,’ said William Procida, founder and president of Procida Funding & Advisors LLC in Englewood Cliffs. “Construction costs being what they are now make it very difficult to make a multifamily ground-up construction even work anymore, and rents aren’t spiking with them.’”

“There are 12,786 such units set for that Hudson County city, according to Cushman & Wakefield. ‘I would not really want to be a developer in Jersey City at the moment because there are thousands and thousands of units that are planned or are under way,’ said SJP Residential Properties president, Allen Goldman. ‘I’m not saying it’s a bubble, but one has to worry what the saturation point is.’”

The Desert Sun in California. “A stream of new homes entered foreclosure in August as a backlog of delayed bank repossessions trickled into the desert market, a new housing report shows. Jeff Litton, a Palm Springs-based broker, was one of the earliest agents to work with bank-owned listings. ‘Just recently, I’m starting to get assets from Wells Fargo and Fannie Mae,’ Litton said. ‘It’s kind of picking up a little bit.’”

“Banks appear to be liquidating leftover inventory, which have contributed to the slight bump in foreclosures, Litton added. Many bank-owned properties have been vacant for a long time, he said.”

The New York Post. “Thousands of vacant and abandoned eyesores are blighting neighborhoods across New York as the foreclosure crisis expands along a troubling new front: zombie loans. Long Island and Queens are the epicenters of the zombie title problem in Metropolitan area, with roughly 3,700 homes in Suffolk, Nassau and Queens counties as of the second quarter, according to RealtyTrac. In Suffolk County alone, zombie homes cover 266 acres of land or roughly one-third of the size of Central Park.”

“‘Zombie foreclosures are affecting families in the hardest-hit areas,’ said Maria DeGennaro, Long Island regional coordinator for the Empire Justice Center. ‘It’s hurting not just homeowners, but anybody living in the neighborhood, and it’s a terrible spiral.’”

The Indianapolis Star. “For the past eight years, Lisa Hardy, mother of three children, has lived for free in a three-bedroom Eastside house that has belonged to no one — at least no one who’s claimed it. No landlord or out-of-state bank has ever shown up to demand rent from Hardy. And the fact that property taxes went unpaid didn’t seem to matter. Swamped with thousands of homes abandoned by their owners, the city never got around to selling hers at a tax sale. And buying the place was also out of the question. Hardy couldn’t begin to sort out the liens, litigation and past due taxes on her house.”

“So as the years ticked by, Hardy lived in the 1,490-square-foot house in the 800 block of Eastern Avenue as if her name were on the title. Her case seems to be an odd fallout from the mortgage meltdown that hit Indianapolis starting around 2004 and left the city with thousands of abandoned and foreclosed houses, said said Roger Rayburn, director of housing for Neighborhood Christian Legal Clinic. ‘There were so many bad loans out there that ownership really got kind of confusing,’ Rayburn said. ‘A lot of those have been cleaned up. But there are still a lot of properties that are kind of in limbo.’”




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24 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-09-22 05:27:45

I’m driving for 6 hours today and working around that, so there will be moderation delays. Day after tomorrow, I’m flying to Texas for 5 days.

‘Nearly three in four Northern Nevadans have equity in their homes, according to the Lied Institute. That’s a big improvement from the 2009-2010 period when only 27 percent of homeowners were not underwater on their mortgage. With banks being more judicious in putting distressed properties in the market, the market likely won’t see a repeat of 2009, according to Ashworth. “They basically flooded the market in 2009 with foreclosures and that’s why prices plummeted,” Ashworth said. “”Hopefully, they learned their lesson.”

‘Meanwhile, there are also continuing concerns about the bank-owned properties still out there. “The elephant in the room that everybody sees and nobody talks about is shadow inventory,” Ashworth said. “You can see homes in neighborhoods that don’t have a for sale sign but are boarded up and unoccupied. As long as they come to the market slowly, then that’s fine.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 07:26:52

“according to the Lied Institute”

A realtor funded think tank with a name like that.

They’re correct though. The price discovery just getting legs under itself will be nothing like 2009 as it will be unprecedented.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 11:39:21

Big builders, Toll Bros, Lennar, etc. are PAYING $72,000 per finished lot in northern NV right now. And that’s a bulk price for 260 lots. That’s how big the current re-bubble is. This is in a place with low wages, but lots of retirees.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 13:13:14

They’re more dumb than who?

What is a “finished” lot?

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 15:54:56

“What is a “finished” lot?”

I’m sorry, I thought you knew something about building houses. Anyway, a finished lot has already been platted and the curb and gutters, utilities, water, etc. are already in vs. “raw land” which is just that.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 16:06:13

Ahhh… So it’s a $20k site package plus catch basins, curbs and asphalt. Figure another $30k for the CB’s, RCP, curbs and blackpaint job. A $20k lot. Why so much?

And why is Lennar paying retail for site work? Aren’t they a construction company?

“Finished” lot. LOL

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 18:53:26

“Why so much?”

Because it’s a massive bubble.

 
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 18:54:49

““Finished” lot. LOL”

That’s what they’re called out west. Not my terminology, and I’m not even sure why it’s funny. It’s the industry standard here.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 18:56:59

It’s called site work my friend. I thought lennar was a construction company. Why are they paying retail for site work?

 
 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-09-22 08:05:43

They say investors have played too large of a role in the housing rebound by artificially inflating prices.”

They could have prevented this if they wanted to…Limit time held to one year for any non-owner occupied home that will qualify for any government financing….Flippers go poof…

Comment by Bad Andy
2014-09-22 08:22:21

These investors, many of them institutional used cash to drive the poor sap taking a mortgage out of the market. That wouldn’t have solved the issue.

Comment by Bluto
2014-09-22 10:37:37

Yep, that is true in my experience, I am one of those saps….I made strong offers on about six houses in 2011/2012 and all were ignored as a flipper or speculator offered 100% cash. They could be borrowing that cash elsewhere in many cases but that made no difference when trying to buy with a mortgage, sellers will go with the cash offer unless in rare cases they want to sell to someone who is buying for the right reason (to LIVE IN THE HOUSE) as a matter of principle….I have heard of that happening anecdotally.

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 11:30:45

Prices in northern NV are right back to a massive bubble. What couldn’t find a buyer several years ago at $150k is selling for over $300k now, quickly. Then entire market was controlled and run up by speculators.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 13:25:09

nnnnope.

Nevada Housing Inventory Balloons As Demand Plummets 23% YoY

http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 15:57:35

Uhhh, yyyyyeepppppp.

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 16:16:06

8350 Cinnamon Ridge Ln, Reno, NV 89523
4 beds, 4 baths, 3,680 sqft

06/27/14 Sold $610,000
08/15/03 Sold $616,500

2003 prices are bubble prices in this area. These houses shouldn’t be selling for anywhere near that, yet they ARE.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-09-22 19:07:12

Nnnnnope.

Nothing is selling.

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-09-23 09:53:26

People are probably comforted by the fact that… “at least they aren’t paying 2006 prices”

SELL!

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2014-09-23 09:50:00

Prime SELL time.

Always, always sell at a high. Buy low.

 
 
 
Comment by Can_Bubble
2014-09-22 11:30:56

I met a guy from Denver last night. He moved to Toronto for his wife’s job and he loves it. He says the bought in Denver for $190,000 is now worth at least $300,000 because a rapid transit stop will be built 200 yards away. He is renting his home out. He thinks the place will be worth $500,000 in a couple of years when the new rapid transit stop is completed. I advised him to sell. He won’t sell because he thinks the value is a lock go up.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-09-22 11:42:26

Blinded by greed. I love it.

 
Comment by Ed G
2014-09-22 11:53:47

Do they have any idea how long it takes to build rapid transit? Look up the Green Line Extension to Somerville. It’s been over ten years and not a mile of new track has been laid.

Money now is almost always worth more than potential money later.

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-09-22 12:07:11

Jason Graves, an agent with Triangle Real Estate Group, said the Triangle is not creating enough jobs to sustain the level of sales activity

sounds rasis

 
Comment by Bubbabear
2014-09-22 19:07:00

Goldman’s Former Head Of Housing Research Predicts Housing Crash, Recession Within Three Years

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-17/goldmans-former-head-housing-research-predicts-housing-crash-within-three-years

 
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