Bits Bucket for September 24, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Avon, CO Sale Prices Plunge 22% YoY; Statewide Housing Demand Craters 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/avon-co/home-values/
skiing at beaver creek is pretty sick yo
Labor Force Participation Rate Dives To New 37 Year Low
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
“Labor Force Participation Rate Dives To New 37 Year Low”
Hmmmmm … I wonder if and how old folks are considered in reaching this finding, old folks who are retired.
Alternately I wonder why the subsequent generations aren’t offsetting the record low participation rate.
Because they are going to college or are going back to college in hopes of landing a good-paying job?
And while they are doing this they are living off of the earnings of mom and dad?
BTW, that was a good thread yesterday about some college professors earning below the minimum wage.
Maybe.
Doing everything except working. That’s why the labor force participation rate is at multi decade lows and falling.
In some ways going to college - becoming a perpetual student - delays the transition stage of young people going into adulthood and lots of young people latch onto this phenom.
Going to college means one is “becoming” while graduating means one has “arrived”. Arriving is scary for some so these some will opt for becoming - will forever opt for becoming - if given the chance.
I don’t think it’s a maturity issue. The kids continue with schooling because it’s the only “job” they can find. I saw this with English majors 20 years ago, and now it’s bleeding up to the tech degrees.
But what else can a BA do? Go work at McD’s for a couple years until jobs open up? Then they will still be a BA competing with an MA for those jobs. They might strike it lucky if they can intern for peanuts and someone recognizes the internship over a MA, but it’s dicey at best.
Yesterday someone said that it was only the “studies” majors that were poor adjucts. That’s not the case. I know it happens for physics and chemistry too, and probably math, with advanced degrees.
But if all the BAs go back to school to become MAs then this will flood the job market with MAs and prices (in this case wages) get beat down when a market is flooded with product.
This is looking at one end of it, the other end of it is the cost of going from a BA to a MA; It’ going to be tough to recover costs if the market is saturated with product.
Same rule goes for MAs becoming PHDs.
There PhDs in sciences and arts have always been paid less and there is a huge supply. Their salaries are low (like 60-80K) whereas fields like Business has seen a soaring demand in the last decade. Freshly minted Finance PhDs get close to $220K in starting salaries and that too is 9 month. Some make more than the faculty who taught them. Now this is for research universities. For PhDs who just do teaching, say in Finance, salaries are still very high close to $200K range.
So, PhDs in Medicine (MD-PhD), Business fields and Engineering make very good money close to industry standards. Like a Marketing Manager at Kraft Food with an MBA may be making $300K salary, a PhD professor in Marketing would make around $250K for 9 month salary after say 7-10 years of experience.
All the B-School salaries have tripled in the last decade as these schools have become factories to manufacture MBAs as part-time, full-time, weekend, executive, 1 year degress etc. It is happening in all colleges all around the world which created a huge demand for PhD in business areas.
“For PhDs who just do teaching, say in Finance, salaries are still very high close to $200K range.”
I’m in the wrong business.
+1 to Martin’s post. I was a graduate research assistant in the department of marketing and international business for four semesters. Academia is one big cash cow, except for the contract term instructors. The Dean of the business college and all of the Department Chairs knew they were sucking on a firehose spewing cash, and their primary motivation was to keep that money flowing, academic instruction was secondary.
Academic scientists earn nothing compared to industry. Industrial scientists don’t earn much with a PhD, either.
“All the B-School salaries have tripled in the last decade as these schools have become factories to manufacture MBAs as part-time, full-time, weekend, executive, 1 year degress etc. It is happening in all colleges all around the world which created a huge demand for PhD in business areas.”
Best just to doctor up a phony MBA on the home computer, and get to gettin’.
You need to look at the participation rates by age cohort to determine how much of this decline is due to demographic effects (more people getting older and retiring) than certain age groups dropping out of the labor force.
Example:
If you take a broad swath of “working age”, 25-54 year olds, the labor force paticipation rate as of August was 81.0% (NOT seasonally adjusted).
August 2013: 80.9%
August 2006: 82.8%
August 1984: 80.7%
August 1996: 83.8%
Before 1984 it goes in to the 70’s and keeps going down as you go back in time…I can only assume there are far fewer women in the workforce then.
I picked some highs and some lows from the period of 1984-present to show the variation.
I suspect the overall participation rate will continue to drop, but the participation rate of this cohort will fluctuate between 80%ish and 83%ish.
I think it’s nonfarm too.
“Labor Force Participation Rate Dives To New 37 Year Low”
#FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica
loanownership is pretty overrated
“loanownership is pretty overrated”
I like it, I like owning loans, especially when the loans I own have been purchased with other people’s money.
They, the OPM people, take the risks while I take the rewards.
how about 10 yr financing for used cars- help the poor
“help the poor”
Doin’ God’s work.
OPM people = OP?
“loanownership” - love it!
Meet a sap: 66 year old Tom Greco, attorney.”$4,500 monthly mortgage payments — a consequence of several equity withdraws over the years” in Irvine, CA - finally sold his Irvine box to move to a condo in Lake Forest - cheaper “thousands less per month,” to downsize. He and his wife should rent instead. There are great places to rent in Irvine for the same monthly payment they will pay in Lake Forest.
http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-boomer-mortgages-20140921-story.html
If you rent, then you are missing the boat. A man should own a house.
It went like this: “A man in his 40s should own a house.” That’s what a former colleague told me ten years ago.
But I’m not in my 40s. Ha!
You got him with math
Greco, the Orange County attorney, said he took a “shortsighted view.” Enticed by dropping interest rates, he refinanced his Irvine home four times.
He then used the money from the cash-out refinancings to pay down credit card debt and finance home renovations, including a pool he himself designed.
“A foolish move,” he said of the refinancing, but one that many others, including friends, did as well.
So the logic is this: “Because so many others are fools, including friends, I will be a fool too and live on credit, pretending to be wealthy like all the other people are pretending to be wealthy”
Got popcorn?
See, many boomers refused to realize the reality: Our parents, the greatest generation, had the highest amount of wealth and very little debt. They learned from the Great Depression. But the 1970s inflation hit and the real kicker is that the USA never recovered from the 1970s inflation. As boomers, our parents usually had one breadwinner. That was all it took.
My folks had a Land Rover at one time. It was in the late 50s or early 60s. All sorts of luxury. A paid for house, the ability to go on day trips in our station wagon frequently from Central California. But of course we did not have Cable TV until the oldest two kids left the house. No internet, cell phones, none of that B.S. And we were a one car family. We thought we had it good. And we did have it good.
The boomers went on a credit binge. Knowing that it takes two incomes to be able to “own” a house in yuppie cities, they refinanced, HELOCed, and sometimes borrowed from relatives. I know a boomer in his 60s - his sisters keep asking for money even. Boomers feeding on other boomers. This is particularly why I do not tell my sisters how much money I have. They’d go on a feeding frenzy. Better for them to learn the value of earning it.
This whole country is going to be in for a shock when the bill comes due. I will grudgingly pay my share from what visible assets I have, which is why I am building up movable, hidable wealth.
“But the 1970s inflation hit and the real kicker is that the USA never recovered from the 1970s inflation.”
+1 So true. Big changes happened back then : 1) The Great Society Programs, 2) Vietnam War debt, 3) The Clean Water Act, 4) End of the Gold Standard, 5) The Yom Kippur War and OPEC Oil Crisis. Time to put the bird to work.
Welcome to the oligarchy - US leads the developed world in low-wage jobs (that won’t pay for $500K starter homes). This is what you voted for, America. Enjoy your serfdom.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-23/welcome-oligarchy-–-us-leads-developed-world-low-wage-jobs
Try this link.
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2014/09/22/welcome-to-the-oligarchy-united-states-leads-the-developed-world-in-share-of-low-wage-jobs/
“US leads the developed world in low-wage jobs”
Because? Maybe because the developed world is competing with the developing world?
A lesson here: If you are working at a good-paying job that cannot be exported then you have before you a prize. Do not willingly walk away from this prize because the odds are that you will never come close to finding another prize to take its place.
The same is true with earned dollars. Save and protect your cash. You’re going to need every last penny.
What good are “earned” dollars against dollars which have been newly “created” by the Fed into order to backstop dollars which were created 10 years ago and died 5 years later? Two of each will buy the same amount of Sbux.
So you’re not a broke - assed flunky all your life.
If they’re borrowed, they need to be paid back…
Any job can be exported. If it can be done here, then it can be done there. The only question is whether or not Americans will ever get the guts to stand up against third-worldiness in general, and support the cause of ourSELVES.
Well you can look up S.3816, which was written by Senator Dick Durbin at the behest of his friend Barack Obama.
The oldest profession in the book can’t be exported. Car mechanics? I am not shipping my car overseas to get worked on.
Dentist? Lawyers? Proctologists?!? Pizza delivery?
There is a limitation as to what can be exported.
Norway Jumps to No. 2 Foreign Buyer of U.S. Real Estate.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-23/norway-jumps-to-no-2-foreign-buyer-of-u-s-real-estate.html
Yet foreign buyers of housing is at 7% which is the long term trend rate.
They have oil money that they need to burn. They are buying office buildings in high profile cities (NY) and assuming other debt. I don’t expect them to be moving in next door. I’ve met Norwegians and their view of Americans is less the admiring.
US prime real estate is viewed as a put by sovereign banks. They are perfectly willing to forgo return for capital preservation. They have a long horizon.
You went from appreciation to preservation. You’ll get to depreciation eventually.
Norwegians don’t like Americans, yet they want to buy US real estate. Why? How does that even make any sense? This is a truly annoying tendency around the world. It’s like “Save us from Ebola, you scum; and let me live in your crappy country too. It’s my right.”
Auntie, individual Norwegians aren’t buying individual houses like the Chinese are. The Norwegians have a large investment fund which they want to spend on real estate all over the word. They seem to be concentrating on high-dollar investment deals. So no, they don’t want to live in our crappy country. They just want to make money from buying up American icon real estate. Like the Japanese did in the 80s.
And that worked out for them so well huh Donk….
Any thoughts on why Mr Market is suddenly so glum? Things never looked better than last Friday.
Monday and Tuesday were shake out days. The next several days will be suck ‘em in days.
they need to pretend there is actually a market.
500 steps forward, 450 steps back. I expect this to continue as long as those young alpha males cheering behind Rick Santelli on the Floor can continue to use OPM to gain femtocents on microtrades.
Gold $10,000, and why ‘golden’ is worse than ‘death’ when it comes to crosses
Published: Sept 24, 2014 9:05 a.m. ET
Critical intelligence before the U.S. market opens
Getty
By Shawn Langlois
Markets reporter
With much of the big market-moving news taking a pause, investors and the financial media have gotten fixated on what’s going on within the imploding small-cap universe.
If the fear-mongering in this whole Russell 2000 (RUT, -0.94%) “death cross” hype is giving you the night terrors, just wait until the “golden cross” stumbles into town. The flowery descriptors couldn’t be more misleading, unless “death” is a good thing and “golden” is something to be feared.
When it comes to returns among the small caps, though, these are two signals worth ignoring, according to Michael Batnick, director of research at Ritholtz Wealth Management.
“I’ve heard technicians dismiss these indicators as bunk, so I wasn’t shocked to see that the death cross was not indicative of anything,” he said. “However, I was shocked, as I’m sure you are, that the death cross is more bullish for stocks than the golden cross.”
Examining the numbers back to 2000, Batnick found that returns a year after an alluring golden cross are 32% worse than the returns following super-scary-sounding death cross.
Funny thing, while Batnick and several other bloggers were out there throwing cold water on the death cross, stocks got pummeled on Tuesday, following the indicator’s emergence a day earlier. As with all these indicators, they’re bunk until they’re not.
BTIG Chief Strategist Dan Greenhaus cautions investors against reading too much into the continued puking of the small caps. He says this kind of underperformance is usually found during corrections but isn’t normally a leading indicator of such weakness.
“Of course, with nearly half the Russell down 20% from respective 52-week highs and 16% of the index down 40% or more, one can hardly blame clients for wondering whether things are worse than the S&P 500 is letting on,” he said.
…
Never mind that the price just dipped below $1220. It’s gold $10,000 or bust!
The call of the day
Gold (GCZ4, -0.23%) has waterboarded investors into submission, with a daily trickle of declines pushing prices toward lows not seen since 2010. But that’s not stopping fund manager Stephen Leeb from echoing the likes of Albert Edwards, Marc Faber and Nick Barisheff with a call for gold $10,000. “There is very little downside left in the gold market,” he told King World News. “We will have to see $10,000 gold in order to rationalize the kind of trade the world does. That’s the bottom line. So investors have to own the metal ahead of the coming repricing of gold in order to protect themselves.” Read his entire rationale and decide for yourself if he’s compos mentis.
…
Thank goodness. Gold at $10,000 would certainly be unattractive to me. OTOH, gold around $1220 makes my greed meter go crazy. I want to back up the truck. which is one reason I have sold a lot of my staffing co. stock to flood myself with $100 bills and have plenty of fiat left over after my next precious metals shopping spree. Soon…soon!
Opinion: Here’s what will happen to stocks before and after rates rise
Published: Sept 24, 2014 6:10 a.m. ET
It’s a good-news, bad-news scenario, but you can protect yourself
By Howard Gold
Columnist
Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen: ‘There are still too many people who want jobs but cannot find them, too many who are working part time but would prefer full-time work, and too many who are not searching for a job but would be if the labor market were stronger.’
Last week the Federal Open Market Committee surprised a lot of pundits by doing what it has said it would do.
The FOMC announced a further reduction of its extraordinary bond buying program — quantitative easing, or QE3 — in which the central bank adds liquidity by purchasing Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities.
In September, the Federal Reserve will buy only $15 billion in government-linked securities, down from $85 billion a month late last year, and will likely end QE in October. That’s been baked in the cake for some time.
What surprised some people, but really shouldn’t have, was the FOMC’s declaration it would keep rates low for a “considerable time” after the central bank ends QE.
Those two magic words mean the Fed won’t raise the federal funds rate from around zero in the near future, despite inflation hawks’ efforts to paint the central bank as “behind the curve.” (Two dissenting FOMC hawks, Charles Plosser, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, and Richard Fisher of Dallas, will step down next spring.)
Here’s what Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen said after the meeting:
Hello?! Doesn’t anyone remember Yellen is a dove who’s still focused on the employment side of the bank’s dual mandate? Or are you still shocked — shocked — there’s gambling in Casablanca?
Nonetheless, at some point, even Janet Yellen will have to raise interest rates to fend off an inflationary surge of the kind she has promised to forestall.
The debate now is over when the rate hike will happen in 2015 — spring or summer. It’s a foolish discussion and impossible to predict, even for people whose livelihood depends on calling Fed turns and market tops.
What’s more important is what the markets will do when the Fed finally gets around to boosting short-term rates and returning them to “normal,” whatever that means.
Well, actually, it’s more about what will happen before and after rates start rising, because the stock market, as we know, anticipates big economic changes like rate hikes and recessions months ahead.
And there, market history suggests long-term optimism but short-term caution.
Sam Stovall, S&P Capital IQ’s U.S. equity strategist, recently tracked Fed interest rate hikes going back to the end of World War II.
“In 13 of the 16 times the Fed raised rates, the market went into a pullback, correction or bear market” in the six months before the rate hikes began, he told me in a phone interview last week.
…
Stock market shows shades of 2007
Published: Sept 23, 2014 1:29 p.m. ET
By L. A. Little
Everyone refers to 2008 as “the crash,” but really, the market had peaked long before the fateful September and October of that year. The peak of the bull market that first received its horns in 2003 was actually recorded on Oct. 11, 2007 — almost a full year before the crash. Remembering back to 2007, it was a very difficult year to make money, just like this year. What was gained was lost in a lot of cases. Just a coincidence? Maybe, maybe not
Some back-of-the-envelope numbers suggest it might be more than a coincidence. Take a look at how individual stocks fared from January-September in 2007. This data simply compares winning to losing stocks for the year heading into the final week September.
…
The new home sales number was fantastic, and Mr Market responds by dumping shares. What gives?
Why would you loan money out at negative interest rates if you could just keep it tucked under the proverbial mattress earning a higher return of 0%? Makes no sense to me…yet another artifact of the credit mania, perhaps?
Credit Markets
Treasury-Bill Yield Tips Into Negative Territory
By Min Zeng and Katy Burne
Updated Sept. 23, 2014 8:04 p.m. ET
A scramble for safe, short-term debt left some investors on Tuesday paying for the privilege of lending to the U.S. government.
The demand, which intensified following the Federal Reserve’s decision this month to curb a popular overnight-lending program, pushed up bond prices and drove down yields. The yield on the U.S. Treasury bill maturing on Oct. 2 traded at negative-0.01%, according to Tradeweb, the first negative yield in eight months. Yields on other Treasury bills due in three months or less hovered around zero.
Short-term debt trading at negative yields was essentially unheard of before the 2008 financial crisis. But since then, the condition has cropped up at times of market stress, reflecting extraordinarily expansive central-bank policy and anemic growth in much of the world. Yields on some U.S. bills traded below zero at the end of each of the past three years amid strong demand for liquid assets, according to analysts.
In Germany, the yield on the two-year government bond has traded below zero in recent weeks. Investors there were seeking safety amid Europe’s latest brush with slowing growth and dangerously low inflation, even as many global stock-market indexes trade near record highs.
A broader flight to safety on Tuesday also pushed up prices for longer-dated Treasury debt. The U.S.’s benchmark 10-year note rose 9/32 in price, and its yield fell to 2.535%, down from 3% at the start of 2014.
Traders cited a handful of additional reasons for the unusually robust demand for Treasury bills, the government securities that mature in less than a year. Many investment firms are bracing for the end of the third quarter, when regulated firms often boost their holdings of safe assets to make their balance sheets look safer. At the same time, investors continue to favor short-term government debt amid geopolitical turmoil from the Middle East to Ukraine.
“People are scrambling to find a place for short-term cash in a world where high-grade assets are relatively scarce,” said Andrew Hollenhorst, U.S. short-term interest-rate strategist at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York.
…
Sound an fury
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. sales of new homes surged in August, led by a wave of buying in the West and Northeast.
The Commerce Department said Wednesday that new-home sales climbed 18 percent last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000. The report also revised up the July sales rate to 427,000 from 412,000.
Newly constructed homes sold at the fastest clip since May 2008. It’s a clear sign of improvement for a real estate market that has been muddled in recent months, as the rebound in sales following the housing bust began to slow.
Sales of new homes are up 33 percent over the past 12 months. Median prices for new homes have risen nearly 8 percent during the same period to $275,600.
“Newly constructed homes sold at the fastest clip since May 2008.”
Wasn’t that immediately preceding one of the greatest financial meltdowns in history? Not to suggest this time isn’t different…
A nation of fat and broke @ss loosers
“About 29.1 million people, or 9.3% of the U.S. population, suffer from diabetes, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. It has become a major driver of health-care expenditures in the U.S., accounting for an estimated $245 billion in direct and indirect medical costs in 2012, the most recent year available.”
http://online.wsj.com/articles/diabetes-rates-shown-leveling-off-1411503427
And for those of you who learned Common Core math, that is a quarter trillion dollars
American exceptionalism indeed, LOLZ
“A nation of fat and broke @ss loosers”
+1 And I demand my free dialysis sessions served with smile.
“About 29.1 million people, or 9.3% of the U.S. population, suffer from diabetes…” (CDC)
The fact that Type 2 is reversible, yet Big Pharma dictates standard of care, says we’re doomed to reverse the trend. Add Type 3 Diabetes (Alzheimer’s) to the stats, and an aging US population. Dr. Permutter’s (MD)Book “Grain Brain” was interesting.
Dr. Permutter’s (MD)Book “Grain Brain” was interesting.
Too much grain in the diet ? I quit wheat once upon a time and lost weight. Hard to do its everywhere.
There is more one kind of Type II diabetes. It is not always caused by obesity.
Auntie Fed
Please explain?
I don’t have many beta cells (”sugar shocks” cereals as a kid) and control my insulin spikes. I went to a great doc who turned my condition around. No drugs.
cactus
Against all grains that raise your blood sugar. Perlmutter is a Neurologist who wants to save us from Brain Diabetes, Dementia and Alzheimer’s. He is on youtube as well, and explains things well. The book was fab.
“About 29.1 million people, or 9.3% of the U.S. population, suffer from diabetes”
Better raise the tobacco taxes again…oh wait.
#Exercise
#PortionControl
‘Ticking at the heart of American society all through the 1920s was the mechanism of false prosperity, which was blowing great quantities of air into a bubble of gigantic proportions. The Federal Reserve system set up before the war made financing the war possible – but at what price? The price was setting up a financial oligarchy with near absolute power over the economy – and also setting up the country for the Great Crash of 1929.’
‘The rise of the totalitarian ideologies as challengers to Western liberalism was made possible, first of all, by the Great War, and by the Crash, which was also caused by the very system that had made the prosecution of the war possible. National Socialism and militant Marxism were “blowback” from World War I just as the jihadists of today are blowback from the cold war era. And these two great enemies of liberty, abhorred by today’s liberals, were at first greeted with something approaching admiration by the progressives of the time.’
‘As America and its Arab allies targeted Islamic militants in Syria for the first time, killing at least 120 of them, it is evident that Washington is no longer giving priority to removing President Bashar al-Assad from power. This means the US is shifting away from its policy of the past three years when it insisted that no negotiations were possible except about his removal.’
‘Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain also assisted or took part in the strikes, their participation aimed at showing that the US is not launching an anti-Sunni crusade. The involvement of the Gulf monarchies is significant because in the past the US has identified private donors in these states as financing jihadis in Syria and Iraq.’
‘Much will depend on how far the US is prepared to give tactical support to those fighting Isis on the ground in Syria. These are mostly organisations of whom the US government disapproves or regards as terrorists, such as Hezbollah and the Syrian Kurds besieged by Isis at Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, in northern Syria. The Kurdish militia defending the town belong to the YPG, which is part of the PKK Turkish party that the US has labelled as terrorist.’
‘The crisis involving the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) is a Godsend to politicians, which is probably why the threat actually posed by the group is being hyped as it is while the White House and Pentagon continue to change the meaning of commonly used English expressions to enable the attacking of just about anyone anywhere. We are told that the United States will have a free hand in bombing Syria, an independent nation with which Washington is not at war. The Administration has warned that if Damascus attempts to defend itself from the air armada there will be consequences in the form of “retaliation,” suggesting that the US would be striking back after being attacked. Oddly enough, my dictionary suggests that it would be the Syrians who would be retaliating, but one supposes that in the Emerald City everything is not as it seems and certain words have little or no meaning.’
‘The welcome distraction afforded by ISIS means that the issue of Gaza, which was recently devastated by the Israelis, has largely disappeared from the mainstream media, enabling Benjamin Netanyahu to steal still more land on the West Bank for new settlements. And remember MH-17? Still a whodunit and nobody cares anymore.’
‘Back here at home, the dispute over the Senate Intelligence Committee report on Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) torture, a hot button issue earlier this year, has also benefited, largely disappearing from sight. The meticulously researched Senate report, covering 6000 pages and including 35,000 footnotes, apparently concluded that torturing terrorist suspects was not only illegal under the United Nations Convention on Torture, to which Washington is a signatory, it was also ineffective, producing no intelligence that was otherwise unobtainable.’
‘Since a “forgive and forget” forward-looking White House has already indicated that no one will ever be punished for illegal actions undertaken in the wake of 9/11, why is the torture issue important beyond the prima facie case that a war crime that was authorized by the highest levels of the federal government? It is important because of its constitutional implications and its impact on rule of law in the United States, which is again being flouted by the Administration in its rush to “destroy” ISIS, which is little more than a terrorist group du jour being exploited to terrify the American public. The constitutional issue, in its simplest terms, is that the CIA works for the president and when it operates without legally mandated oversight by the legislative branch and judiciary it does so in defiance of separation of powers, making the Agency little better than a secret army run by POTUS.’
42:00 to 44:00 of this is pretty good.
The House of Rothschild (1934 full length historical biography movie …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pk93JIkolAU - 223k -
The House of Rothschild (1934) is an American film written by Nunnally Johnson from the play by George Hembert Westley, … Films directed by Alfred L. Werker.
Later, as Mayer Amschel Rothschild is lying on his deathbed, he instructs his five sons to start banks in different countries across Europe: Amschel Mayer Rothschild (1773-1855) in Germany, Salomon Mayer von Rothschild (1774-1855) in Austria, Nathan Mayer Rothschild (1777-1836) in England, Carl Mayer von Rothschild (1788-1855), and James Mayer de Rothschild (1792-1868) in France. As they fund the Napoleonic Wars of 1803–1815, they aim to gain respectability from the European nobility
The House of Rothschild (1934) - Wikipedia
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_House_of_Rothschild - 46k - Cached - Similar pages
‘These are mostly organisations of whom the US government disapproves or regards as terrorists, such as Hezbollah and the Syrian Kurds besieged by Isis at Kobani, also known as Ayn al-Arab, in northern Syria. The Kurdish militia defending the town belong to the YPG, which is part of the PKK Turkish party that the US has labelled as terrorist.’
Is it safe to say that any fringe group in the Middle East of whom the US government disapproves is susceptible to being labelled and targeted as terrorists?
“Is it safe to say that any fringe group in the Middle East of whom the US government disapproves is susceptible to being labelled and targeted as terrorists?”
Remember to bend thy knee when the chariot rolls past.
“the White House and Pentagon continue to change the meaning of commonly used English expressions to enable the attacking of just about anyone anywhere.”
Pentagon Promises Forever War
Pentagon reassures the military-industrial complex
by Kurt Nimmo | Infowars.com | September 24, 2014
Dick Cheney and the neocons will soon realize their dreams of forever war against unseen Islamic enemies.
From DoD’s twitter feed Tuesday:
On Wednesday USA Today quoted Army Lt. Gen. William Mayville, director of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, who said forever war is a certainty.
“I would think of it in terms of years,” Mayville said.
Obama said as much on Tuesday. “This is not going to be something that is quick, and it is not something that is going to be easy,” he said.
One might be reminded of George Orwell’s 1984 where the Inner Party conducted an unwinnable forever war.
“We’ve always been at war with Eastasia,” the party claimed as it effortlessly changed enemies from “Eurasia” to “Eastasia” during Hate Week.
We have our own rotating and ever mutating roster of enemies – al-Qaeda, ISIS, al-Nusra, and now the fearsome Khorasan – and they will serve the military industrial complex well.
I didn’t know that Dick Cheney was bombing Syria. I thought Obama was.
Step away for 2-3 hours and everything changes. Wild!
The U.S. is in the Middle East because of the Iraq war. ISIS is a direct result of Saddam Hussein being removed from power. We broke it, now we own it. It’s not Obamas fault he has to fix the mess left by the previous administration. BTW, in case you haven’t noticed, 5000 soldiers haven’t been sent die to fight someone elses battles under Obama. That may seem like a small point to you, but to some people it matters.
You need to go a lot farther back then that.
The British divided up the place to suit their purposes, which became our purposes of course.
Now it is all unraveling. But don’t worry Feinstein knows what to do.
We have always been at war with Oceania.
Kidz don’t need fathers when they have Big Daddy Government
“In 2010 58 percent of first births to those with high school diplomas or some college were out of wedlock. The comparable figure for those with a college degree was just 12 percent.
The resulting children are the product of unstable relationships. In one study of 5,000 newborns in large and midsize U.S. cities, half the parents were living together at the time of birth; another third were dating. But by the time the children were age 5, only one-third of those couples were still together — compared with 80 percent of their married counterparts.
More disturbing, many of those single mothers went on to have additional children with other partners, introducing new layers of instability into their children’s already complicated lives.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ruth-marcus-long-acting-birth-control-could-help-stabilize-generation-unbound/2014/09/23/01ba1c68-4355-11e4-b47c-f5889e061e5f_story.html
All you single guys out there (I’m talking to you, Bill) need to “man up” and marry these single moms, and buy her a $500,000 starter home while you’re at it
What they can’t buy those starter homes on their own? Look at all this ‘pent-up demand’!
Single mothers can make lots of money remaining single.
They also have youngins to take care of them in their old age, since Baby Daddy has either split or isn’t necessary to begin with.
And if you thought millennials didn’t have it bad enough already, this first world problem as reported by the Washington Post:
“Skinny jeans and the iPhone 6 Plus may be a bad combination. According to reports from some users, Apple’s latest offering allegedly bends when carried in pants pockets.”
The camel-toe leotards are sacrosanct. Apple?
The Z dimension is too small compared to X and Y. Would be tough to find a material that can withstand that moment.
I think you mean leggings, not leotards. And this new fashion has to be the worst in decades. Tight capri (mid-calf length) leggings with a waist-length shirt and flip flops. Maybe a dancer can pull off that look, but 90% of what I see is top-heavy People of Wal-Mart definition in all the wrong places both front and back.
You are speaking of the “Moment of Inertia”, correct?
Or is that something to do with the Camel-Toe?
No, it’s the Statics Class moment of force. AKA torque.
jeans makers need to include a Phone Pocket in their designs.
Real journalists at the Washington Post report on cuts in retirement benefits to real journalists at the Washington Post:
“The Washington Post announced large cuts in retirement benefits on Tuesday, declaring that it would eliminate future retirement medical benefits and freeze defined-benefit pensions for nonunion employees.
The company also said that in negotiations that started Tuesday, it will seek to impose the same conditions on employees covered by the union — one of the first indications of how the Post’s new owner, Amazon dot com founder Jeffrey P. Bezos, will manage relations with the staff of the news organization.”
LMAO. Washington Posts “journalists” faithfully regurgitated DNC talking points and AIPAC/neocon/corporate propaganda. I have no sympathy. Maybe them and the former Soviet Pravda hacks can start their own support group.
Amy Hoak guest column for the Denver Business Journal
“Increased confidence is led by millennial renters, who are more confident than older generations in their likelihood of buying a home, and who are also more likely to think home values will show more appreciation in coming months, the report said.
“We need this generation to be confident and wanting to buy, regardless of the difficulties they face,” Humphries said.
“But optimism is a necessary first step, and indicates a desire among a very creative generation to find creative solutions that will enable them to achieve homeownership”
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2014/09/zillow-housing-confidence-up-in-denver-nation.html
I can’t remember ever reading so much FAIL in one article before
I’m optimistic that members of the younger generation who wait out the eventual and inevitable shakeout that will accompany the end of the Echo Bubble will find far more affordable home buying opportunities in the future than in the current fly-by-night investor infested market.
I just sent this article to the newly-married 23 year old intern who is looking to buy in the $400,000 range.
Another DBJ article notes that median Denver house prices are up 63.9 percent over the last five years.
It’s a good thing everybody got 63.9 percent raises over the past five years, otherwise housing might become unaffordable, LOLZ.
A shame if you’re 40.
But optimism is a necessary first step
Silly me, I thought an ample and reliable income, plus some non-trivial savings were the first step.
Don’t be such a hater
What was I saying recently, when the real data is so bad it can’t be fudged any longer, starting pumping the ’sentiment’ (or in this case, ‘confidence’) indexes.
I love the smell of desperation with my morning coffee…
Milleninials who were screwed over by the “hope ‘n change” they foolishly voted for may be less sheeplike than they were in ‘08, and more realistic about their long-term prospects in the Goldman Sachs economy.
“We need all generations to go into hock, no matter what.”
A revival of the Company Store in the 21st century
New York Times - Walmart Prepares to Offer Low-Cost Checking Accounts
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/business/finding-a-door-into-banking-walmart-to-offer-checking-accounts.html
No word yet on if greeters will start saying “Welcome to Wal-Mart, I love you” or is Wal-Mart will be opening its own law school
Here’s the beef in the article:
——
“The accounts are intended to be low-cost alternatives to traditional bank checking accounts, with no fees for overdrafts or bounced checks and no minimum account balance.
…The new accounts from Green Dot, called GoBank, will cost $8.95 a month if they have direct deposits totaling less than $500 a month. Mr. Eckert said that most people on Social Security or fixed pensions would qualify.”
——
Direct deposit? No Home Despot Parking Lot employees need apply. I wonder if they will offer a debt card.
I wonder who gets less money and favors from the federal government: WalMart or Citibank or Bank of America or Wells Fargo or US Bank.
I’d be interested to find out.
SNAP cards vs. bailouts. Take your pick.
SNAP at least pumps some money into the High-Fructose Corn Syrup Industrial Complex (and by extension, to the Diabetes Medicaid / Medicare Industrial Complex), enabling Midwest farmers to buy $60,000 new trucks.
Bank bailouts just go into the 0.1%ers Augustus Gloop feeding trough.
SNAP should exempt soda, snack foods, most processed foods, and just have basics like meat, dairy, veggies, fruit and a maybe few treats, but limit the monthly quantity. When I shop Walmart for a few things (like salad dressing), the cr*p EBT card customers buy is astounding. Most are fat slobs. Gross.
Yeah, EBT Cards have a cash ATM component, but it would at least take additional effort. Heart Attack in a basket.
We call Brie “heart attack on a cracker.” LOL
Walmart is a business like others that says “we’re open, come shop here”, why is that a problem?
Don’t victims of the FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica need a place to purchased discount goods?
What’s going on in the mainstream media lately? First Amy Hoak publishes an article advocating paying off your mortgage before retirement, and now this:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-next-housing-crisis-aging-americans-homes-2014-09-24
I guess “Climate Week” is the warmist equivalent of New York Fashion Week
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-22/global-warming-is-here-live-coverage-of-climate-week-2014.html
There is more warmist warming in this link than I’ve ever seen in one place
The Jesus Freaks have nothing on the Enviro-Nut Freaks.
Certifiable they are.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/23/science/on-a-warmer-planet-which-cities-will-be-safest.html?_r=0
Climate article by someone who lives in Portland.
Bulletin
U.S. new-home sales surge in August to a 6-year high
Market Pulse
August new-home sales surge to six-year high
Published: Sept 24, 2014 10:00 a.m. ET
By Ruth Mantell
Economics reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Sales of new single-family homes surged 18% in August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, the fastest pace in more than six years, led by the West, according to government data released Wednesday. August’s result beat forecasts from economists polled by MarketWatch, who had expected a sales rate of 426,000, compared with an originally estimated pace of 412,000 for July, and may ease some concerns about the recovery’s performance. On Wednesday, the government upwardly revised July’s sales pace to 427,000. The sales pace rose 50% in the West, 29% in the Northeast and 8% in the South. Meanwhile, the pace was unchanged in the Midwest. Economists warn against reading too much into a single month’s report, noting that the volatile new-home sales series undergoes revisions. The median price of new homes in August rose to $275,600, up 8% from a year earlier. August’s supply of new homes on the market fell to 4.8 months at the current sales pace from 5.6 months in July. New-home sales in August were up 33% from a year earlier.
…
Throw more dead supply on dead supply.
And also released this morning, Mortgage purchase applications down 16% YOY, even down MOM seasonally adjusted. Something doesn’t add up here…
I hate seasonally adjusted numbers. Let’s do the actual numbers:
Sold August 2013: 31k
Sold August 2014: 41k
Yes 10k homes is a big difference, but it’s a big country.
Here’s the thing on my mind…starting about now, there are about 20k people PER MONTH in CA alone who will have had 7 full years run from their foreclosure (who can now borrow again)–Summer of 2007 was the start of the foreclosure crisis. Many of these people have said that they want to buy again, and now, a foreclosure being on their credit record is no longer an issue.
CA sold about 40k homes in the last 12 months. It only takes a small fraction of these “boomerangs” to buy to make a huge difference in the market. 5% of these folks buying would add 12k to the 40k total. And some estimates that I’ve seen place the percentage who WANT to buy at over 50%.
It is my expectation that these buyers will drive single family home starts back toward the 1MM per year…which will then get us in a position for the next leg down (strong job growth, complacency, etc.). Watch this space.
You really drink deeply, don’t you?
R._Fraud,
It’s an estimate. Much like the realtor tripe.
your an estimate of ponzinomics
Try to be more data driven AZ._Fraud.
Davis, CA Housing Prices Dive 12% YoY As Inventory Balloons 21%
http://www.movoto.com/davis-ca/market-trends/
broke @SS FRAUD
Data Az_Fraud data!
Walnut Creek, CA Housing Prices Nosedive 21% YoY As Sellers Panic
http://www.movoto.com/walnut-creek-ca/market-trends/
“New-home sales in August were up 33% from a year earlier.”
This year on year increase was highly concentrated.
Northeast was down 3.1% year on year
Midwest was flat year on year
South was up 27.2% year on year
West was up 84.3% year on year
a nation of broke @ss loosers
the disappearing middle class is becoming the fast food industry’s biggest problem
http://www.businessinsider.com/shrinking-middle-class-takes-toll-2014-9
My rent just went from 1900.00 a month to 2250.00 in zip code 92054.
My free ride is over!
… and still half the cost of buying at current grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing.
That’s an 18% increase! Even my rent wasn’t that bad. Is this your first renewal? Is is a commercial complex?
That can’t be. Auntie Janet as assured us inflation is running at well under 2%.
I was agitated in sd and moved here in 2008. Its a house with management thing. The free ride was paying 1900.00 for 8 years! Is 18% increase illegal?
It all depends if there is rent control, and what those rent control laws say.
My understanding is that in LA County there is rent control, but it doesn’t apply to single family housing. I’m guessing there is no rent control where you are.
So I would guess that no, an 18% increase is not illegal. Your choices are to pay it, negotiate with the landlord (they might give you a break if you raise a fuss), or to leave and find a place where the rent is less.
Or she could buy.
[runs away]
Not in Oceanside. I’m willing to bet the rent/own math on the place she is renting makes no sense what-so-ever.
Here is the economics of rent increases, in a nutshell:
Your LL can charge you an amount of rent up to the rent you would pay on your next best rental housing alternative PLUS the amount you are willing to pay in order to avoid moving. Or putting this another way, the LL can increase your rent up to the point where the difference between the rent on your current place and what you would pay to rent comparable housing exceeds your willingness to pay for avoiding a move.
Figure out the above for yourself (aka your BATNA = Best Alternative to a Negotiated Agreement) and you can decide whether it is better to stay put, and what the maximum amount of rental increase you are willing to accept.
Also remember that unless your landlord doesn’t like you as a tenant, they lose out if you move, as they have to potentially either forego receiving rental income while searching for a new tenant to replace you or else lower their asking rent to entice a new tenant to move in sooner.
I wanted to move anyway but rents are now 3100.00 in la costa. I’ll stay in my 80’s box till the market retreats! Thanx All
Thanks RW. Manger said LL wants to bring it up to market value and i said the house is stuck in 80’s! Last year she asked me if I would pay more rent if he fixed up the house while i was there! I hate getting skunked!
Move
s H y S t E r
Santa Rosa, CA Housing Prices Crater 11% YoY As Inventory Surges On Collapsing Demand
http://www.movoto.com/santa-rosa-ca/market-trends/
One thing you might do, is “horse trade” some improvements for a locked-in rent.
In other words, choose some things that you want that make your life better, but also could have some value to the property owner:
New dishwasher, ceiling fans, washer/dryer, repainted interior, new windows, etc.
Let’s say those things cost a total of $4k.
Offer to pay for those things yourself (so you get to choose what you want). And in exchange, negotiate a one-year lease at $2,000 with 2 additional 1-year options at fixed prices (perhaps you negotiate year 2 at $2,050, and year 3 at $2,100).
Could be a win-win. You get better digs (with things you want), the landlord doesn’t have downtime, and a somewhat improved house. In exchange, you get slightly lower-than-market rent, and you build in some certainty for yourself for the next few years. The landlord comes out a little ahead if you leave after 1 year (he gives up $3k in rent for $4k of improvements), so he can see you would have an incentive to stay for at least 2 years, and you get a little benefit by having that third year option.
The beautiful part about an option for you on year 3 is that if market rents are back down to $1,900 per month…it’s your option–you don’t need to pay it. You can always find a better place then…or renegotiate.
Just an idea for you…
I just sent her my list of things that need repair and I will retread your post over and over so I can bombard her with these ideas tomorrow. Thank you!
Read my post when it shows up (may take a while as it is a long one!)…
A California Dream: More Than One Bedroom
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/us/a-california-dream-not-having-to-settle-for-just-one-bedroom.html?_r=0&referrer=
Article notes the two-tier society, the Lucky Ducky future is now
“I talk a lot of buyers out of sticker shock,” said Linda Ginex, a real estate agent in Orange County. She routinely steers clients to suburbs they might not have initially considered.
Translation:
I’ll stick them with a hellish commute in a far flung exurb destined to degrade into a crime ridden wasteland, anything to make sure I GET MY SWEET COMMISH! CHACHING!!!
Thieving lying realtors.
That is a sobering article!
Tis all true. I’m stuck in a (very nice) rent-controlled place in West Hollywood that I’ve been in for more than a decade. Any place worth living in around LA would cost quite a bit more. There are luxury condo buildings going up all over previously crummy areas of Hollywood, but NO low- moderate-income housing. If I move, it will be out of the state.
“Indiana Toll Road Operator Files for Bankruptcy”
http://online.wsj.com/articles/indiana-toll-road-operator-files-for-bankruptcy-1411395866
This is what happens when you buy real assets in the US. Bankruptcy.
Good luck.
Remember when “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke blithely assured Congress that “sub-prime is contained” - and what happened next? Deja voux….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-24/cleveland-fed-head-unleashes-c-word
“cleveland-fed-head-unleashes-c-word”
Crash?
UK’s Labor Party, after slavish obedience as an oligarch/bankster lapdog (and losing millions of blue-collar voters in the process), is now trying to appeal more directly to it’s core constituency: Britain’s Free Sh!t Army.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/austerity-labour-core-voters-ed-miliband
The Fed’s war on gold.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-24/paul-craig-roberts-rigged-gold-price-distorts-perception-economic-reality
Lew Rockwell presentsTyler Durden of ZeroHedge.
Tyler Durden presents The Big Picture for Gold and Silver.
http://www.lewrockwell.com/2014/09/no_author/the-big-picture-for-gold-and-silver%E2%80%A8/
$13,000 per ounce?
Anybody see this one yet? http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?src=twr
Lenders disable your car if you don’t pay mortgage! I don’t get it!
Anybody see this one yet? http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/miss-a-payment-good-luck-moving-that-car/?src=twr
Lenders disable your car if you don’t pay mortgage! I don’t get it!
Sounds illegal.
Agenda 21
A really interesting story and scary…but the cars are not being disabled for non payment of a mortgage, it is for non payment of a loan on the car itself, at least that is what I read.
Home lenders should disable front doors of homes for non payment!
phony scandals
More phony scandals
still more phony scandals