Bits Bucket for September 29, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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View the HBB Photo Gallery *updated 4/13/2008
Falls Church, VA Sale Prices Crater 12% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/falls-church-va-22043/home-values/
mountain p0rn:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140928_102901_140-d3fMFrNK.jpg
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140928_102752_771-Uc0HPp5H.jpg
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140927_150348_322-bCBSXmeZ.jpg
and if you know where this is, you win a 6 month subscription to usa today
It’s in Colorado, of course!
try harder, those 3 pics were taken less than 5 miles from here:
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20140928_125625_101-jGSY1FE6.jpg
Sierra Nevada, CA
Social Justice Warriors™ want to give more free sh*t to the Free Sh*t Army:
“Millennials are all about incorporating community service and inclusivity into their day-to-day life.
They embrace change, champion environmental and social justice and put their heart into helping those in need.
“Millennials are thirsting for opportunities to have a more special relationship with the surrounding community”
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2014/09/26/200-millennials-gather-to-delve-into-downtown.html
I don’t see any barf-bags on the luncheon tables. Sickening!
denver is turning into san francisco, just without the ocean and with more smog. millennial trust-fund twits pay $1500+ monthly rents to live downtown and step over puddles of urine and vomit and used syringes and get panhandled for money every time they walk outside to the yoga studio, artisan bakery, or doggie daycare, lolz
http://news.yahoo.com/pot-seen-reason-rise-denver-homeless-175115981.html
The sad thing is that you’re not lying.
Colorado = The Next California.
sounds like NYC.
Goonie: What chance do you think that Prop 68 ($114 more for schools) will pass? I’d say it has a snowball’s chance in hell of passing.
I often read about a certain cycle that goes on in cities. The hipsters and/or rich kids move into such neighborhoods because they’re cool and “gritty”. Their presence pushes up rents and drives out the poor and working class. When it’s no longer a low income neighborhood, the police start paying more attention and the homeless and drug dealers are forced to get out of the area as well. Eventually, there are Starbucks everywhere and stores like Banana Republic open up. The grittiness is now over, and the hipsters start looking for other cheap neighborhoods.
What they ain’t doing is buying houses. They are starting later, staying at home longer and getting married less. All of that bodes I’ll for housing. Combine it with the retiring boomers who are downsizing and collecting public pensions and it is the perfect demographic storm for housing. All the borrowing in the world won’t help. As an article this weekend showed, the public pension funds averaged 7.5 percent over the last 10 years and yet are doing worse and worse.
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes here:
“The proportion of Americans who live alone has grown steadily since the 1920s, increasing from roughly 5 percent then to 27 percent in 2013, according to the latest Current Population Survey from the Census Bureau.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/more-americans-living-alone-census-says/2014/09/28/67e1d02e-473a-11e4-b72e-d60a9229cc10_story.html
Marriage is dying.
I still look at online realty apps / websites. But when I get to the upscale places in Arizona, they are all huge. They may be in decent nabes, but I would die from working too hard maintaining a place - keeping it spotless. Even something over 1600 sq feet makes me question if it would make me a slave. The older I get the more I will likely rent in a high end apartment complex (Mark Taylor in Phoenix or Avalon Bay Communities in Irvine) and spend $$$$ on Mercedes Benz cars instead of houses.
Living alone makes you think that way, and you can count your dividends. Stocks do far better than a SFH for a place for growth. So why not live where it’s cheaper to rent than to own, and the excess money can go to cars, booze, women, and Hawaiian vacations?
let me repost this….
Very important read people……wow!
Inside the New York Fed: Secret Recordings and a Culture Clash
A confidential report and a fired examiner’s hidden recorder penetrate the cloistered world of Wall Street’s top regulator—and its history of deference to banks.
http://www.propublica.org/article/carmen-segarras-secret-recordings-from-inside-new-york-fed
The future’s so bright, I gotta wear shades:
“To the peak-oil adherents, this is just a respite, and decline is inevitable. But a growing tide of oil-industry experts argue that peak oil looks at the situation in the wrong way. The real constraints we face are technological and economic, they say. We’re limited not by the amount of oil in the ground, but by how inventive we are about reaching new sources of fuel and how much we’re willing to pay to get at it.”
http://online.wsj.com/articles/why-peak-oil-predictions-haven-t-come-true-1411937788
Yup like keeping he 2% of the arctic preserve off limits to drilling…..while Russia finds a huge oil find maybe bigger then the gulf of mexico….
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-27/rosneft-says-exxon-arctic-well-strikes-oil.html
I’d love to go electric, but they’re still too fugg’n expensive.
Just winterized our three cars this past weekend, thinner oil, flush brake fluid, new wiper blades, rainx treatment, etc., and I’m really tired of the mess. Three Toyotas, and all of ‘em have their oil filter positioned such that upon removal a huge mess ensues. The Japanese engineers obviously don’t change their own oil.
Maintaining jalopies is no fun but still far less costly than replacing them with new jalopies.
Punch a hole in the top of the filter before you remove it.
At least that what I used to do with my Toyota it had the oil filter on the top side of the engine.
Now I drive oil burning Subarus.
Consider going diesel?
Just took a weekend trip to Walla Walla from Seattle. 36mpg for the entire trip in a 4300lb vehicle. Certainly not the 45-ish mpg one can get in a Golf TDI or the like, but the ride in my vehicle is a bit more luxurious (and all-wheel drive)
“Consider going diesel?”
Na, done with messy, stinky, fuel.
A knowledgeable employee at Auto Zone told us that you have to add a chemical to a diesel vehicle (in Ca) to meet the air quality control board standards. It was around $15-$20 a pop every few thousand miles. You get out of the Smog bi-annual requirement, but it’s not cheap.
I’m still waiting for a good EV, with a 200ish range/ price $35Kish. Mileage Anxiety is a biggie for me. The DOE has all the level 1 & 2 plug in stations on their website. We’re not there yet.
Na, done with messy, stinky, fuel.
If you burn bio, it really doesn’t stink; it smells a little like a hot frying pan, but none of that my-lungs-are-dying sulphurous smell.
you have to add a chemical to a diesel vehicle (in Ca) to meet the air quality control board standards. It was around $15-$20 a pop every few thousand miles. You get out of the Smog bi-annual requirement, but it’s not cheap.
DEF fluid — basically urea. No diesel smell at all, to be honest. Only “dirtiness” is the pump handle at the station, but that’s something a handful of latex gloves in the car addresses quite nicely.
“Aaron Lewis Hunted After Real Estate Agent Beverly Carter Vanishes”
nbcnews.com/news/us-news/aaron-lewis-hunted-after-real-estate-agent-beverly-carter-vanishes-n213796
An arrest warrant was issued late Sunday for a suspect in the disappearance of Arkansas real estate agent Beverly Carter, who vanished after showing a home last week. Aaron Lewis, 33, is a person of interest in the case, according to Lt. Carl Minden of the Pulaski County Sheriff’s Office. Police said Lewis was involved a single-vehicle road accident in Jacksonville, Arkansas, earlier on Sunday and was treated in a local hospital for facial injuries but left before the warrant was issued. “He was not under the guard of law enforcement at that time due to not having any criminal charges at that point,” Minden said. Lewis has a criminal history in Arkansas, Kansas City, and Utah, NBC station KARK reported.
Pending sales crater again.
some stats about lucky duckies in new york city:
in 2013, 3.2 million new york city residents were on medicaid
91,000 new york residents receive section 8 vouchers
almost 2 million new york residents are on food stamps
median household income is $50,000
average rental price is $3,000
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-09-26/how-the-poor-can-afford-to-live-in-new-york
91,000 new york residents receive section 8 vouchers
That’s all? I thought everyone on welfare got one of those.
It’s a swankier style of “bread lines”
“If you are lucky enough to have a good [gov't sponsored] deal, you can live in the city for well below the average rent.”
And get a well above average standard of living.
There is a building near me in nyc that is a Mitchell Lama co-op, part of an affordable housing program where residents “buy” (lifetime rent) their unit for a one-time price between $4,000-$35,000, and then pay a maintenance fee every month.
This taxpayer-subsidized affordable building was designed by a star architect. It has a parking garage, elevators, full-time maintenance staff, and built-in air conditioning. All units have picture windows; upper floors have panoramic views in all directions. It is literally two blocks from a Louis Vuitton store, so that tells you a bit about the location. Oh, and the building has a Picasso sculpture in the courtyard. Yes, really.
Meanwhile, everyone else in the neighborhood paying market value live in 6th floor walk-up studios with window air conditioners and panoramic views of the brick wall next door.
So nice that nyc taxes are helping the Mitchell-Lama tenants live in the style to which they have become accustomed.
a little George Ure this morning……http://urbansurvival.com/another-clump-of-slump/
Little Trouble in Big China
Communists in China don’t like what? (Democracy!).
So when people take to the streets of Hong Kong in support of democracy and democratic reforms, out comes the tear gas and Billy clubs.
Watch closely as the Obama administration what?
NOTHING!
Where are the sanctions on China? LOL – you’re kidding, right?
We will pass out cookies in Kiev all day long because there is the Donetsk petroleum basin backed up against Russia. Turn a blind eye to Gaza because of massive oil and gas potential off their shores. Bomb ISIS to keep them from getting near Syria’s potentially rich coast. Talk tough on the Arctic because it holds gas.
But beat-down pro-democracy people in China? None of our business as long as China holds us by our (manufacturing and bond sale) nuts.
We’ve just about completed the transition from being a Nation of Principles to a Nation of Trade-Offs. Sad, but indisputable.
“ ?? It’s their Party and they’ll club if they want to…???? ..club if they want to… ????”
no ‘pent-up demand’ for $500,000 starter homes here:
‘with the economy growing in fits and starts, an increase in ‘doubled up’ homes isn’t just young adults moving into their parents’ basements, according to a recent economic research note.
more doubled-up homes mean fewer households are being formed and that home sales may not see a substantial jump higher anytime soon.’
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/27/doubled-up-homes-arent-just-for-couch-surfing-adult-kids-and-reluctant-parents-anymore/
Plunge in federal hiring takes toll on state
Scarcity of U.S. jobs offsets gains in private sector
September 14, 2014|By Michael Dresser | The Baltimore Sun
Hiring by Maryland’s largest employer — the federal government — has fallen by more than 40 percent nationally over four years, and the state’s job market is feeling the pain.
Years of tightening budgets have brought federal hiring to the lowest levels in at least a decade. And each month for more than a year, Maryland has posted a decrease in federal employment from the previous year, creating a drag on overall employment.
The decline in federal jobs has been a major contributor to Maryland’s spotty employment performance in recent months. When the state saw dismal numbers for July, showing a loss of 9,000 jobs from the previous month, the O’Malley administration announced the news with a cheery headline that emphasized 18,700 new private sector jobs over the past year.
Not mentioned was the loss of some 2,400 federal jobs since July 2013, as many agencies left positions unfilled amid budget sequestration and hiring freezes.
Federal employment in Maryland is now at its lowest level since military base realignment brought a surge of jobs in 2010 and 2011.
“At the end of the day, all of these things translate into a more stagnant Maryland economy,” said Anirban Basu, founder of Sage Policy Group, an economic consulting firm.
Federal hiring has fallen in Maryland at about the same rate as it has nationally, according to the Office of Personnel Management. Almost 15,000 employees joined the federal workforce in Maryland during fiscal year 2009. By 2013, the number had fallen to a little more than 8,000.
…
That is likely why housing demand in MD has cratered far more rapidly as compared to other states.
Just two years ago I recall the suburbs of Washington D.C. being the place where the unemployment rate is the lowest and wages are among the highest. What’s going on?
No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes here:
“America’s young adults aren’t rushing to tie the knot, and findings from a new Pew Research Center report suggest that couples are not getting married because 78% of single women want a partner with a “steady job.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-simple-reason-why-fewer-americans-are-getting-married-2014-9
Enjoy those lonely nights with the cats and boxed wine and Sex And The City DVD’s, ladies
Thats why gay weddings are a godsend to a lot of my old dj friends it made up for the loss of straight people just shackin up.
Opinion: This simply can’t be a stock market bubble
Published: Sept 29, 2014 6:00 a.m. ET
The economy is growing, inflation is under control — what’s the problem?
By Jeff Reeves
Columnist
As the S&P 500 Index recedes from recent highs over 2,000 points, investors are once again assaulted with bubble talk.
Never mind that the stock market is still up about 7% in 2014 after slipping 1.4% last week. And forget that forecasts for third-quarter GDP are strong, and estimates for earnings growth in the same period are around 8.9%.
The end is nigh, right?
Unfortunately for the so-called permabears, this is not a stock market bubble. Corporate and economic reports show strength across many sectors.
Here are five reasons to have faith that the recent softness in the stock market is not a sign that a bubble is popping.
…
I thought dems hate money from wall street?
http://dailycurrant.com/2014/09/26/eric-holder-takes-77-million-job-with-jpmorgan-chase/ The Ultimate LIAR..and DEFRAUDER..will NOW STEAL YOUR MONEY At CHASE!!!
Eric Holder Takes $77 Million Job With JPMorgan Chase
Just after announcing his resignation as U.S. attorney general, Eric Holder has accepted a top job with Wall Street finance giant JPMorgan Chase. Starting in…
DAILYCURRANT.COM
Holeeeeeeeeeeee crime wave, Batman! No wonder America’s top cop didn’t go after the banks.
Eric Holder has accepted a top job with Wall Street finance giant JPMorgan Chase
Payola for considering them too big to jail? Hmmm……
is this a real article written by real journalists?
“The Daily Currant is an English language online satirical newspaper…”
Didn’t they do a story once about Dick Cheney accidentally shooting himself in the face?
Yeah, all you have to do is read to know that it’s similar to The Onion. I’ll have to check it out.
Holder Resigned Over Failure to Prosecute Wanta Murder Plot!
Sunday, September 28, 2014 22:56
Glenn Canady
“Learn the Secret to Eternal Life!”
http://www.project.nsearch.com
A report has surfaced today that Eric Holder was made to resign over his failure to prosecute Senator Sheldon Songstad and Governor Don Sundquist over their $30 billion attempted bribe and murder plot to hire hit men to kill Lee Wanta caught on tape and broken first on Before It’s News in this story.
“Senator Songstad and Governor Sundquist Caught Red Handed Plotting Murder!”
Mid-October? Yeah, and the check is in the mail…….
http://tinyurl.com/oq8k6v7
aka, What happens when someone who knows what he’s doing gets pushed over the edge. You will be seeing more and more of this, unless the bought and paid for media manages to sweep it under the rug.
This is what the oligarchs/kleptocrats are afraid of……..the wretched refuse figuring out how much power they actually have.
Banks may be “too big to fail”, but there are any number of “systemically vital” systems (aviation/ATC, the electric power grid, IT, etc.) where the suits have cut so many corners, eliminated redundancies in the name of efficiency, and screwed so many of the worker bees, that a few dozen people could get together and collapse the whole mess like a house of cards in a hurricane.
Take out a half dozen “en-route/regional” ATC centers and air traffic will come to a screeching halt for weeks.
Inflated prices of housing is destablizing.
“Inflated prices of housing is destablizing.”
+1 And a threat to national security.
One street over from me! At least they have a new front door and a pretty kitchen!
!https://www.redfin.com/CA/Oceanside/1308-Knoll-Dr-92054/home/3390919
The “cookies and cream” granite countertops with dark cabinets is so overplayed it’s sickening. White cabinets with recycled glass would put that milquetoast design to shame. I’m not even a designer, just a guy who has good taste.
You are spot-on.
I was in my new dental office a week ago for a cleaning, and looked around at the dark brown cabinets, with formica countertops, and told my hygenist: “The 70s are back!”
When you live long enough to see the entire cycle, you know (and finally have experienced) that everything old is new again . . . wide necktie, skinny necktie; short hair, long hair; roung eyeglasses, square eyeglasses; boxy automobiles, round cars; etc etc.
I predict in another 10-15 years that everybody will be ripping out their granite and stainless kitchens, replaced by something more colorful (will avocado come back? Stay tuned!).
“I predict in another 10-15 years that everybody will be ripping out their granite and stainless kitchens, replaced by something more colorful (will avocado come back? Stay tuned!).”
It’s already happening. Granite cracks and cant be repaired so it’s replaced with Corian.
I have “modern” chocolate cabinets and love them. I think the hardware makes a difference, and glass inserts add drama. I traded the long “Ikea” pulls for more traditional hardware (knobs and small pulls)and it’s ageless, and my granite isn’t much of a contrast. I love my kitchen.
I put natural quartz on the bathroom vanities and I love it. Quite resistant to staining. Chocolate cabinets as well.
No carpet in the whole house, and it takes me 10 minutes to micro-fiber sweep it.
My last home was white carpet w/ travertine traffic areas and 4 baths. I went from a light cabinet & flooring home, to a darker home. My “flavor” changed.
“At least they have a new front door and a pretty kitchen!”
Amazing how insignificant $100k is in California. I paid nearly $80/sqft for my place, and that was too much IMHO. $400/sqft for a spec house just takes my breath away.
This is the first time I’ve seen a thread with the wrong date.
file this under ‘please sir, i want some more’
still no wage growth as skilled-worker shortage complaints rise
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/09/29/still-no-wage-growth-as-skilled-worker-shortage-complaints-rise/
Meanwhile, the DNC’s permanant supermajority are being dispersed around all 50 states, though I’m guessing the Red states are heavily favored.
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_IMMIGRATION_OVERLOAD_SCHOOLS?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT
How many more billions are we going to spend trying to “fix” Iraq?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-an-hour-away-from-baghdad–with-no-sign-of-iraq-army-being-able-to-make-a-successful-counterattack-9763658.html
Another socialist paradise running out of other people’s money. Soon to be visited upon a DNC permanant supermajority People’s Republic.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-29/venezuelas-21st-century-socialism-food-lines-people-new-cars-military
Jim Webb considering a 2016 Presidential run - he would be a vast improvement over Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/jim-webb-former-senator-from-va-takes-on-his-partys-hawks-and-maybe-clinton/2014/09/28/ba12f572-43f1-11e4-9a15-137aa0153527_story.html