Bits Bucket for October 7, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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A CROSS OF BITS
Falling prices aren’t the real reason to worry about bitcoin
Written by Tim Fernholz@timfernholz
Obsession
Future of Finance
October 7, 2014
People are starting to notice: The bad boy of the digital currency world is losing its mojo.
Which is to say, bitcoin prices in US dollars have been heading south, hovering at just under $350 after peaking at more than $1,100 just a year ago. At one point, bitcoin was the worst performer of nearly any asset class.
It’s not a coincidence, either, that bitcoin hasn’t really been in the news of late, as the currency was during last year’s explosion. The crypto-currency is remarkably sensitive to media coverage, and one of the main dynamics of its rise has been the hype cycle of successive rounds of excited investors piling into the currency, much to the benefit of early adopters. For bitcoin, even bad news—like the October 2013 downfall of Silk Road, the bitcoin-driven market for a whole world of dubious goods—became good news as exposure lead to greater knowledge of the digital currency.
But the real chart that should spell worry for bitcoin investors is this one, which shows that, despite the hurly burly—and more than $100 million poured into bitcoin start-ups by venture capitalists—actual use of the currency hasn’t really increased. Recent gains in transaction volumes have coincided with a falling price; that is to say, people are selling.
…
Thing is, it’s not an asset at all.
Dumbest Ponzi ever.
Bitcoins, the Beanie Babies of the financial world.
How I lost half of my retirement investment in bitcoins
Published: Oct 7, 2014 5:00 a.m. ET
Worthwhile risk or just plain stupid?
By Jack Tatar
It’s nearly four months since I placed a portion of my retirement funds into bitcoins. Specifically, I invested $25,000 into the Bitcoin Investment Trust (BIT) as part of my SEP contribution for the past year.
Since my investment, bitcoins have declined steadily. And last weekend’s flash-crash in bitcoins sent the digital currency below $300, which seems to have steadied Monday at $335.00.
My initial investment in BIT was at a per unit net asset level of $64.51. As of Monday, my new asset value for each of my units of the trust was $31.16.
I’ve lost over half of my investment — ouch!
During that period we’ve seen the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX, -0.39%) grow from 1,940 to over 1,965.
However, this isn’t about chasing returns (or at least, that’s what I keep telling myself). Rather, the reason for my investment was about asset allocation and the incorporation of alternative investments into that allocation. The reality is that the bitcoin investment is less than 5% of my overall portfolio, so hopefully this assures me that I won’t be eating dog food even if my investment in the Bitcoin Investment Trust goes to zero. On the other hand, as with other alternative investments, the hope is that with high risk may come the reward of high return.
No one likes to lose half of their investment in whatever they invest in. For many of us, if we were losing that much, we’d have sold out a long time ago (hopefully).
…
Did you notice
– how someone felt compelled to create “tokens” in a fraudulent attempt to legitimize the value of bitcoin?
– how said tokens closely (and fraudulently) resemble Euros?
If you fell for it, you’ve been scammed. Now dust yourself off and move on with your life.
If bitcoins fall to the point where they reflect the cost of the power needed to produce them, they might then prove to be an efficient form of money. They would increase in value during booms (when energy prices rise), and become cheaper in economic slumps (when energy prices fall), naturally maintaining economic equilibrium, without any need of a central bank.
No, because you can’t get that energy back. Poof!
But you’ve got a bitcoin worth that amount of energy.
Got tulip bulbs?
Didn’t Japan snap up lots of U.S. commercial real estate just before the early 1990s crash? Just sayin’…
Waldorf to Be Biggest Chinese Property Purchase in U.S.
By David M. Levitt Oct 6, 2014 1:45 PM PT
Photographer: Getty Images
The Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York City.
New York City’s Waldorf Astoria hotel is set to become the biggest prize yet for buyers from China who have been pouring money into U.S. real estate as they seek stable investments outside their country.
Beijing’s Anbang Insurance Group Co. agreed to pay $1.95 billion for the 1,232-room tower on Park Avenue, an Art Deco landmark and one of Manhattan’s signature properties. That would be the highest price for a single existing hotel in the country, and the most paid for a standing U.S. building by a Chinese buyer, said Kevin Mallory, global head of the hotels unit of commercial real estate brokerage CBRE Group Inc.
“We’re seeing a diversification strategy being employed by insurance companies and others, and it’s also true when it comes to private Chinese investors,” he said in a telephone interview. “We’ve seen a lot of wealth generated there over the last decade, and we see see private investors diversifying their portfolio around the globe.”
The Waldorf deal follows such high-profile New York acquisitions as Shanghai-based Greenland Holding Group Inc.’s purchase this year of a 70 percent interest in the Atlantic Yards project in Brooklyn. In late 2013, billionaire Guo Guangchang’s Fosun International Ltd. paid $725 million for lower Manhattan’s 1 Chase Manhattan Plaza, the former headquarters of Chase Manhattan Bank.
…
“Didn’t Japan snap up lots of U.S. commercial real estate just before the early 1990s crash? Just sayin’…”
Exactly.
Absolutely! Read the novel Rising Sun to see how prescient that subject was at the time.
Of course, the logical response then as now is: “Let them buy it, they cannot take it back to Asia”
What could go wrong when you pay almost 10 times assessed value?
An Astoria pounding perhaps?
RE taxes will now be about 40% of fair market value, each and every year!
Sounds like an asset pounding is on the way, for sure…
The whole thing is a big joke. The whole world has been on steroids from central banks. Created massive bubbles all around the world. This party has to end some day and the day is nearing. Unless Fed comes with another QE. What a shame. No more organic growth. Just false growth based on printed money and asset/bonds/interest rates manipulation.
All these so called economists and professors should be ashamed of what they have done in the past decade. Instead of creating more bubbles, they should try to fix the problem. RE prices going down is not a problem but why they went up 300% in a few years was a problem that needed to be addressed. Instead all central banks started lowering rates and printing money to create inflation which they call is growth. I think it is just poor people pay more as inflation tax and rich keep getting richer.
should be ashamed of what they have done in the past decade. Instead of creating more bubbles, they should try to fix the problem ??
Not sure what your situation was in September 2008 but I remember it quite vividly…Let me ask you…What would you have done in September 2008 ??
“What would you have done in September 2008 ??”
By then it was too late to be an atheist in the fox hole.
The so-called economists are either stupid or they are on the payroll. When you borrow, the predator class skims away your wealth. If you are a debtor you strengthen them.
Get out of debt and stay out.
“What would you have done in September 2008 ??”
Well, let’s see. Maybe stop the bleeding and get a little healing going. But then not go right back to juggling chainsaws?
“Maybe stop the bleeding and get a little healing going.”
Isn’t that exactly the point of a hair-of-the-dog hangover cure?
Well, let’s see. Maybe stop the bleeding and get a little healing going ??
What the hell does that mean ?? Specifically, what would you have done differently ??
Get out of debt and stay out.
^^^^^^^^^^ This.
Stop feeding the beast!
‘what would you have done differently’
Here’s part of the problem:
‘Ian Bruce Eichner, who suffered high-profile failures in two real estate busts, late last week secured $420 million in financing for a nearly 800-foot condo tower just south of Madison Square Park in Manhattan, according to multiple people familiar with the financing.’
‘The deal marks a remarkable turn for Mr. Eichner, who became an early face of the last real estate bust when his planned $4 billion Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas resort casino stalled amid a credit crunch. The deal for the tower at 45 East 22nd Street is the latest luxury condo tower to get financed in New York, joining a string of towers that have been selling units for well over $3,000 per square foot, a sum considered eye-popping just a few years ago. An influx of foreign buyers and growing ranks of the wealthy have helped propel the market, which, in turn, has pushed up the price of land throughout Manhattan.’
‘Of course, many wonder how much depth there is to the pool of super-wealthy condo buyers. A slowdown in the sales at Gary Barnett’s One57 turned heads when it was reported in last month.’
So instead of capital chasing opportunities that create sustainable jobs, we have vast sums building expensive condos for people who probably have 5 places to live already. And some will wonder, why are we so broke? Why do rich people keep getting richer? If you keep doing the same failed policies over and over, what do you think you’ll get?
2008 do over? That’s easy. Don’t bail out wall street or the banks. Let house prices fall to their natural level and stay there. Let the GSE’s go away and get the government out of the housing business. Don’t print 4 trillion bucks and make it even less likely people will save and invest rather than gamble on stuff. Most importantly, get rid of the idiots that were at fault in the first place. That means the central banks. We don’t need them. Wall street needs them but we don’t.
We’ve become so mamby-pamby about change. Oh, we can’t let a company fail! How will we survive if those billionaires take a haircut? That’s just what they want you to think, and they own the media so that is what you think. Airlines; gotta save em. Car makers; too big to fail. Loaded up with MBS; the Fed will take them off your hands. And of course, no one that matters will go to jail. At some point, we’ve got to stop listening to the same old story and let markets work. Some will say, ‘don’t say we’re socialist cuz it ain’t true!’ Well, prove it. Watch AIG go down in flames and cook weenies on the coals.
Watch AIG go down in flames and cook weenies on the coals.
Awesome. I would pay to watch that on PPV.
Is the Harbinger going to be right? Really don’t know but I’d say it stands to reason you better be liquid when September 2015 rolls around. 7 year mark baby.
Oh, we can’t let a company fail! How will we survive if those billionaires take a haircut? That’s just what they want you to think, and they own the media so that is what you think. Airlines; gotta save em. Car makers; too big to fail. Loaded up with MBS; the Fed will take them off your hands.
I would argue it’s not so much about change.
The average person does not want to be inconvenienced by letting the “free market” do what it does. If an airline fails, it may be more difficult for them to book a flight in the short term, even if there are considerable long term gains. They simply can’t bother to be inconvenienced.
So, the status quo is worth protecting simply because it’s “more convenient”. Of course, it’s not truly more convenient, as it costs more, there’s regulatory capture, bad choices, etc etc. But that requires thinking through what’s going on and imagining it could be different. Or recognizing it used to be different.
I get it Ben….Let the free market work….Consensus is we would have seen a depression that made the last depression look like a mild downturn…What would have seen then ??…Anarchy in some regions…Marshall law against millions of gun toting citizens…I guess we will never know now unless it all comes crashing down again…
Cash is King ?? Cash wont be worth more than the toilet paper on your bathroom wall…Bullets will be King…
It’s not just markets. You’ve got to quit intervening. I’m not buying the “this sukkers going down” line. That’s what they tell you when they’re putting their hand in your pocket.
In business, there’s this thing about projects. I don’t remember the name for it, but when you plan something, you also set out what would approximate success or failure. Then you hold the goals up to the plan later. Had we been told in 2008, this will leave your wages lower for years. Food stamps, poverty at decade highs. Budget deficits at record levels. Oh, but you won’t be able to afford a house! And the rich will sop up 95% of the gains. I don’t think we could have had a sorrier outcome than what we got.
Yes, people like to blame markets for everything. What are market forces? The combination of millions of decisions, which influence everything from supply, demand and price. I know it’s considered robber baron-y to say it, but market forces are much better at allocating resources and directing the economy in a sustainable direction. What you get otherwise is, Bernanke deciding how much a house should cost. You know what? Bernanke has no idea.
Not sure what your situation was in September 2008 but I remember it quite vividly…Let me ask you…What would you have done in September 2008 ??
I would have gone to the root of the issue and punished the very people who were seeking bailout. I would have ensured full force of our justice system on all bankers, RE players who lied and would have set a proper example for future. I would have ensured to re-enact laws that were thrown away like Glass-Steagal act.
There would have been pain initially for a year or two but everything would have grown back organically not like the way it is now. Markets alays work out by themselves without intervention. Interventions always skew things in someones favor.
We are again sitting on a house of cards waiting for the next bust.
Amen, Ben.
I don’t think we could have had a sorrier outcome than what we got ??
I would agree in that the majority of the benefits have flowed to the few and worse, to the few that created the friggen problem in the first place…
“approximate success or failure…”
…success criteria.
Couldn’t agree more about the worst possible outcome, except that it’s probably going to get even worser.
I said this years ago we should have bailed out CIT, moneygram companies that gave short term loans to small business letters of credit and advances on inventory and AR
AIG had 200+ billion in assets they could have weathered it..barely….
So when letters of credit froze the baltic index crashed people got laid off by the hundreds of thousands because the cash flow/ credit lines seized up.
Marshall law
WHOA!!
AIG Bailout Trial Bombshell II: Fed and Treasury Cornered AIG’s Board into Taking a Legally-Dubious Bailout
http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2014/10/aig-bailout-trial-bombshell-ii-fed-treasury-cornered-board-taking-legally-dubious-bailout.html
Rule Number 1 of DC decision making:
If you don’t adopt my policy, the world will go up in flames, only to get sucked into the Sun’s gravitational field and get incinerated into a small lump of coal.
“And the rich will sop up 95% of the gains.”
Success!!!!
Yep…this reminds me of when Japanese investors bought the Rockefeller Center.
Today’s Markets
U.S. Stocks Close Down
After Friday’s Strong Jobs Report, Investors Book Profits and Consider Uneven Global Growth
By Dan Strumpf
Updated Oct. 6, 2014 6:30 p.m. ET
Stocks slipped Monday, giving back some of the prior session’s gains, as investors continued to weigh improved U.S. economic growth against a slowdown overseas.
Traders cast the decline as profit-taking after Friday’s rally sparked by a strong September jobs report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1.2% Friday, its biggest one-day gain in seven months.
Monday morning, major indexes rose sharply after the opening bell but couldn’t sustain their gains. Shares of smaller companies and other riskier corners of the market fell while more defensive bets—including consumer staples and telecommunications stocks—moved higher.
The Dow fell 17.78, or 0.1%, to 16991.91. The S&P 500 eased 3.08, or 0.2%, to 1964.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index fell 20.82, or 0.5%, to 4454.80.
The Russell 2000 index of small-capitalization stocks lost 10.10 points, or 0.9%, to 1094.65.
Traders said the broad move lower came on moderate volumes and wasn’t driven by any particular piece of news. About 6.3 billion shares changed hands on Monday, above average for 2014 but down from 6.5 billion on Friday.
Tom Carter, managing director at brokerage JonesTrading, said that although it was a quiet day, there were signs that some large mutual funds were moving into the market and shuffling their holdings.
“A couple of weeks ago they were quiet, but they’re busy now,” he said. “They’re definitely getting to work.”
In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell by 0.022 percentage point to 2.425%. Yields move inversely to prices.
…
The Dow fell 17.78.
Yaaaawn. Talk to me when it reads The Dow fell 1778.
It’s not going to happen, as the Plunge Protection Team stands ready to prevent 1000+ point drops in the Dow.
However, considering no bear market or Fed tightening is in sight, Mr Market is sure in a cranky mood these days. What is it about October that Mr Market doesn’t like?
What is it about October that Mr Market doesn’t like ??
Its not about October…Its about the world markets…Germany now rolling over…We are the last man standing….Are we going to roll over or be a safe haven ??
Fair enuf.
Economic Report
IMF again slices global growth view on Europe, Japan woes
Published: Oct 7, 2014 9:34 a.m. ET
By Steve Goldstein
D.C. bureau chief
Trey Williams
Reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Stagnation in Europe and a weaker-than-forecast recovery in Japan has led the International Monetary Fund to again cut its global growth outlook, according to forecasts released Tuesday.
The IMF now sees 2014 global growth of 3.3% and 2015 growth of 3.8%, a decline of 0.1% for 2014 and 0.2% for 2015 from forecasts made in July.
That comes even as the IMF became more optimistic about U.S. prospects this year, with an upgrade of 0.5%, to 2.2% growth. U.S. growth is still seen at 3.1% next year.
Accommodative monetary policy, favorable financial conditions, strengthened household balance sheets and a healthier housing market are all expected to support growth in the U.S., the IMF said.
By contrast, the IMF sees a weak recovery in the euro area. There’s not just divergence between crisis economies, but even within those groupings, as Spain has seen growth resume, while Italy is not expected to return to positive growth until next year.
The IMF sees a 30% chance the euro area will re-enter recession.
Japan was hurt by the April consumption tax hike, and in China, growth is seen moderating from its breakneck pace.
…
I am sure Greece and Italy will prop up the Eurozone.
I don’t know why the market doesn’t like October, I speculate that it has to do with assessing consumer spending during the Christmas spending season.
Let the market do their thing. Yes.
Convict the miscreants. Yes.
Tax the bejees out of the flippers. Vote yes in CA
Force leverage down to 16.
The global economy benefits those big corps - not us.
Now those corps are becoming corpses - or soon will be
But one thing for sure. A country built on the rule of law should enforce it’s laws - not exempt a favoured few. Nor be too afraid of pursuing them.
Mortgage age hits a record high on tight credit, interest rates
October 6, 2014, 1:14 PM ET
Mortgages are getting old, a sign that some families are still struggling to get a new loan, while others have already refinanced and are enjoying their cheap monthly payments, according to a report released Monday.
The average mortgage age hit a record-high of 54-plus months in August, up from an average of about 50 months in the year-earlier period, according to Black Knight Financial Services, a mortgage technology and information services firm based in Jacksonville, Fla. That age statistic shows how long a borrower has a loan before paying it off, typically through a home sale or refinancing, or before the loan was closed due to a foreclosure.
“The more newer loans you have, the lower the loan age,” said Kostya Gradushy, Black Knight’s research and analytics manager.
Part of the increase in loan age can be traced back to the plunge in refinancing seen since mortgage rates started rising. Borrowers who nabbed ultra-low mortgage rates have no interest in refinancing now that loans are pricier.
The more troubling portion of rising loan age is the chunk that’s due to borrowers with credit and financial problems who can’t get a new loan, whether it’s to buy a home or refinance. About one-in-10 mortgaged U.S. properties were underwater in the second quarter — owners owed more on a mortgage than a property was worth — so they are both struggling with current payments and will have trouble getting a new loan.
“The equity on their homes is not at the point that selling their house would be reasonable,” Gradushy said.
…
They neglect to mention that 54 months is not even 5 years old. That’s young compared to the 7-year norm.
That graph showing that sub FICO-600 mortgages are the oldest and aged far more after 2009 is instructive. I wonder if this figure includes NODs and squatters.
“Black Knight”, by Deep Purple.
The average mortgage age hit a record-high of 54-plus months in August,
Following a period of unprecedentedly-low mortgages, a period of unprecedentedly-high mortgage age is imminently predictable.
What they aren’t talking about yet (and maybe never will), but should be, is the harm done to the economy by people being unable or unwilling to move to take better jobs for which they are well suited. Think of it as reduced worker liquidity.
This is one of the costs of the free unlimited liquidity.
Also don’t forget workers who didn’t drink the subprime kool-aid to buy homes they can’t afford near work, who pay the price of longer commutes.
Who in the world is going to buy these homes when mortgage rates return to the norm of 6 or 7%?
If the majority of buyers barely qualify (or buy the biggest shack) at 3.5% and both spouses salaries are used in the equation, what will happen if there is another big recession. One spouse gets a pink slip and poof!
There is no margin for error.
Also, from their graph, I think their “record high” only goes back to 2005.
I expect my mortgage (given the very low rate) will ultimately get into month 100, 200 and 300+. No reason to pay it off, no reason to refinance.
Didn’t someone point out here just a day or two ago that this “record” only goes back to 2005 when they first started tracking it?
So mortgages are typically written for 30 YEARS, and the average age is only 54 MONTHS?! I get the idea noone who signs on to one of these things really plans to just sit there and make payments for 30 years… They’re either going to flip the house, or refi to get some spending money.
Apparently the average length of time of someone staying in a house is 7 years, so if there was no such thing as refinancings, you should expect the average to be +/- 84 months.
54 months is far healthier than what it was during the height of the bubble (I think less than 2 years).
What if those 54 months are made up of 36 months of I/O, 12 months of non-payment/NOD, and 6 months of HAMP which is going to fail? Not sure that this is healthy.
Are you suggesting that today people are getting the same kind of crazy finance as they did in 2004-2007?
Your scenario might be true if the 54 months was also coinciding with higher an higher delinquency rates–this is not the case.
My point is simple:
It is not healthy if people continually refinance in order to pull money out to buy cars, go on vacations, etc. Nor is it healthy for people to continually buy and sell homes like they are daytraders (it’s great for brokers’ commissions, but not a sign of a healthy market). A byproduct of both of those unhealthy activities was for the average length of a mortgage in early 2005 to be approximately 2 years.
In comparison, 54 months is a sign of far healthier activities (buy a house to live in for a long time, fewer people using the home as an ATM, etc.).
You shuck and jive with the best R._Fraud.
Mckinney, TX(Dallas) Housing Demand Plummets 29% YoY
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/City/City_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Nations fifth highest increase in home prices belongs to Dallas area.
Dallas home prices were up 9 percent in August from a year earlier in the annual price report.
The greatest price gains in the nation were in Houston, 11.4 percent, and Riverside, Calif., 11.2 percent.
“Major metropolitan areas such as Riverside and Los Angeles, California, and Houston continue to lead the way with strong price gains buoyed by tight supplies and a gradual rebound in economic activity,” Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic, said in a statement.
http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2014/10/dallas-area-home-price-gains-top-nationwide-increase.html/
And from the other end of I-45:
http://www.bizjournals.com/houston/morning_call/2014/10/houston-may-be-headed-toward-a-housing-bubble.html?ana=e_hstn_rdup&s=newsletter&ed=2014-10-07&u=kmOD9NGoR4SOwPsYyKTc3HI+fis&t=1412708106
nnnnnnnnnope.
Dallas, TX Sale Prices Turn Negative; Down 4% YoY, Down 8% QoQ
http://www.zillow.com/dallas-tx-75231/home-values/
Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Turn Negative; Down 2% YoY As Declines Widen In CA
http://www.zillow.com/sacramento-ca-95831/home-values/
Thar she blows…
“Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Turn Negative”
In other local news extreme drought conditions persist.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/j-p-morgans-dimon-finishes-scheduled-cancer-treatments-1410446686
“During one of his earliest treatments, Mr. Dimon received a call on his cellphone from President Barack Obama, who wished him a healthy recovery, the bank confirmed.”
I’ll bet.
Wow, just wow.
Obama will be going to work for Demon, as soon as he leaves office?!
No, no. The speaking engagements and book advances pay MUCH more.
“During one of his earliest treatments, Mr. Dimon received a call on his cellphone from President Barack Obama, who wished him a healthy recovery, the bank confirmed.”
To which Dimon replied: “Thanks, Uncle Tom.”
two articles written by real journalists discuss stagnant wages for lucky ducky:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/catherine-rampell-the-case-of-the-missing-pay-raise/2014/10/06/39efc23c-4d7c-11e4-aa5e-7153e466a02d_story.html
http://www.washingtonpost.com/posteverything/wp/2014/10/06/wages-should-be-growing-faster-but-theyre-not-heres-why/
Welcome to Craterado
“Average sales prices in the metro area decreased by 3 percent from August to $318,819 in September”
http://m.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2014/10/home-market-continues-cool-down.html?r=full
The inflection point or reversal as it were is behind us.
Didn’t I mention that here months ago?
The shills are too distracted by the elections to pay attention to the beginning of the end. They are going to wake up after November to several months of declines and begin crisis mode and QE4 talk.
Perhaps Ebola cleanup will be the new jobs program.
Coupled with the republicans taking control of the senate - maybe QE4 does end along with the other Obama bail outs…
Never forget, the grandaddy of all bailouts happened on W’s watch!
One third of Louisiana Republicans blame Obama for Hurricane Katrina
And Ebola….
Obama, Ebola; both end in a vowel.
And speaking of Crater
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-07/homebuilders-offer-freebies-as-booming-u-s-markets-cool.html
“About 48 percent of FHA borrowers who purchased Phoenix-area properties from Meritage Homes Corp. in 2013 wouldn’t qualify under the new limits…” Lol!
“About 48 percent of FHA borrowers who purchased Phoenix-area properties from Meritage Homes Corp. in 2013 wouldn’t qualify under the new limits”
Poor, poor suckers that bought this summer.
“Average sales prices in the metro area decreased by 3 percent from August to $318,819 in September”
I’ve noticed that my lunch bunch hasn’t been talking about their equity lately.
This is the fundamental transformation you were promised
“A 12th case of partial paralysis in a child treated in Colorado for viral respiratory illness was confirmed Monday by the state Department of Public Health and Environment.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating a possible link between the cases and enterovirus D-68, which is suspected in a nationwide outbreak of cold-like symptoms and severe respiratory illness among children and adults.”
http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26673730/colorado-health-dept-says-12-children-stricken-partial
Sounds to me like polio is making a comeback.
Ebola in Sarasota, coming your way soon
http://www.wtsp.com/story/news/local/2014/10/03/sarasota-hospital-ebola/16689579/
Forward
this is a drudge report link and was not written by real journalists
disease plagues illegal immigrants; lack of medications, basic hygiene blamed
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2014/oct/6/diseases-still-problem-illegal-immigrant-families/
and if you expect the nuevos americanos to wash their hands after going to the bathroom, you are a racist
forward
Real journalists at the New York Times frame the narrative about Ferguson, Missouri:
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/07/us/bruised-and-weary-ferguson-struggles-to-heal.html
Forward
race hustler and social justice pimp jesse jackson tries to cash in on ebola:
http://dfw.cbslocal.com/2014/10/07/jesse-jackson-to-discuss-ebola-in-south-dallas/
You get weary burning up your town?
Next story “Ferguson is now a “food island”!
I cannot understand why inner city areas are not better served by big supermarkets when there are plenty of hungry people there?
Google “shrinkage” as it relates to retailing.
Because land is too expensive for big supermarkets. Because the inner city population is too accustomed to the taste of salt and sugar and wheat wrapped into convenient pre-cooked fingerfood.
That said, you don’t need a huge supermarket to eat well. You only need a small store with a lot of frozen veggies, some easy-to-cook meat like ground beef, and some eggs and milk. Aldi’s seems to have this figured out fairly well.
Stick with grass fed crater taters and hand picked chicken.
Hope and Change
“Delaware State Police say they have arrested the mother of a 4-year-old girl after the child allegedly brought heroin to a daycare center and started to pass it out to other classmates.”
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/10/07/delaware-mother-charged-after-4-year-old-brings-heroin-to-daycare/
Forward
You guys are always whining about how minorities should become entrepreneurs. Well, here you go. This lady is just a modern Avon Lady.
It’s good that this girl has been taught the importance of sharing.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/survivor-mexico-student-massacre-it-was-terrifying-n219911
Police and drug cartels working together for mass murder. Couldn’t happen here, right?
If gold sentiment is taking a turn for the worse, then why is the gold price rising as stock prices are falling?
Opinion: Gold market sentiment takes a big turn for the worse
Published: Oct 7, 2014 5:45 a.m. ET
There isn’t yet absolute bearishness that marks a significant bottom
By Mark Hulbert
Columnist
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Gold’s $20 plunge on Friday was accompanied by a big increase in bullishness among gold timers.
That’s just the opposite of what you would expect, since the normal pattern is for gold timers’ bullishness to rise and fall in lockstep with the market.
It’s a bad sign that this normal pattern has been broken, according to contrarian analysis. It suggests that there isn’t yet absolute bearishness that marks a significant bottom.
…
That’s a good contrarian indicator. Gold now at $1211, which is $183 above its five year low. That is 15.2% above its five year low. At the same time the S&P 500 is 45% above its five year low.
Which is more likely to plunge the next three years (double digit percentage): gold or the S&P 500?
Both.
I strongly doubt it on gold, for the same reasons I explained before. I do expect the S&P 500 index to crater the next few years. But always welcome buying more metal for the buck.
The coin shop today had far fewer quarter ounce eagles than I wanted, so I made up for the remainder in half ounce gold eagles. The shop has absolutely zero fractional platinum eagles. The buyers are snapping up the fractionals at this price.
Most of the dates on the coins are the late 90s in today’s take. Could it be just a peculiar sampling, or is it from someone’s collection who bought most of these several years ago and realized gains? I have more years of gold buying ahead of me.
Jonathan Burton’s Life Savings
How to buy bonds in a rising-rate world
Published: Oct 7, 2014 5:01 a.m. ET
Parts of the market have a chance of prospering
By Jonathan Burton
Asst. commentary editor
Bond investors haven’t experienced a prolonged rise in U.S. interest rates in almost a decade. But this sunny climate seems about to get chillier, forcing bondholders to adjust their portfolios — and expectations.
With U.S. economic growth steadily improving, a majority of the Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee anticipates that the benchmark federal funds rate will surpass 1% in 2015 from its current, unprecedented near-zero level, and approach 4% by the end of 2017.
“The Fed is going to set the markets up for the normalization of rates,” says Rick Rieder, chief investment officer of fundamental fixed income at investment manager BlackRock Inc.
This doesn’t mean you should dump bonds, or that a “bond bubble” is set to burst. But you should watch both the bond market and the Fed closely and be selective about where you put your money, bond experts say.
“Parts of the bond market can actually do quite well in this world,” says Mark Kiesel, chief investment officer, global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co., or Pimco.
‘Low and slow’
The pace of any rate increase is key. Fast and furious will damage bond portfolios more than slow and steady. The Fed currently is indicating that the transition would be incremental — good news for bond investors.
“Low and slow is the name of the game,” says Putri Pascualy, managing director at investment manager Pacific Alternative Asset Management Co., or Paamco.
Plus, bonds are in demand. Older investors in the U.S. and other developed markets want to generate income, and international buyers, particularly in growth-challenged Europe, find the 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR, -1.53%) attractive compared with government bonds in their own countries. Strong demand, coupled with a more restrained supply of debt issuance and tame inflation, could bolster the U.S. bond market and mitigate the negative effect of higher rates on yields.
…
and international buyers, particularly in growth-challenged Europe, find the 10-year Treasury (10_YEAR, -1.53%) attractive compared with government bonds in their own countries. Strong demand, coupled with a more restrained supply of debt issuance and tame inflation, could bolster the U.S. bond market and mitigate the negative effect of higher rates on yields ??
But here is the hole in that argument…World markets are looking to our treasuries for return-on & return-of capital…Pick your order of importance…If the FED raises rates now, that will just attract more international purchases driving the yield right back down…I guess, in a way, it gives the FED some cover to raise rates without effectively hurting the US economy because market rates may not change much…That is, until the world economies improve…Then we will see the reverse…
Raising rates helps the economy Dave. You’ll understand that eventually however you’ll sustain massive personal losses in the process.
That is my approach to treasuries. For now mostly in T-bills. and started shifting into 2 year notes - (low). And only at a trickle (slow).
I want to shift in 3 year notes in a few years after I saturated my target ladder amount in 2 year notes.
Home-price growth hits slowest pace in nearly two years
Published: Oct 7, 2014 8:15 a.m. ET
More homes on the block and slower price growth may kick start the housing market
By Ruth Mantell
Economics reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Home prices eked out a slim gain in August, restraining annual growth to the slowest pace in almost two years, according to data released Tuesday.
In August U.S. home prices rose 0.3% from the prior month, with nine states, included energy-powered Texas and North Dakota, hitting record highs, according to CoreLogic, an Irvine-Calif.-based analysis firm.
Looking at longer-term trends, year-over-year home price growth continued to slow down in August, pointing to a more balanced market, said Mark Fleming, CoreLogic’s chief economist.
“Continued moderation of home price appreciation is a welcomed sign of more balanced real estate markets and less pressure on affordability for potential home buyers in the near future,” Fleming said.
…
Second derivative going negative!
I usually try not to post World Net Daily links because they are such sh*tbag slobbering Christian Zionists, but this piece about Michael Savage is a good read:
http://mobile.wnd.com/2014/10/michael-savage-1-month-left-to-save-america/
I love the way this article tries to pass off Michael “Bozo” Savage as a serious intellectual.
I never said he was. At least he isn’t afraid to speak his mind.
Has the post-Baby Boomer worker shortage begun?
Bulletin
U.S. job openings jump to 13-plus-year high
Market Pulse
August job openings jump up to 4.84 million
Published: Oct 7, 2014 10:14 a.m. ET
By Ruth Mantell
Economics reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Job openings at U.S. workplaces jumped up to 4.84 million in August — the most since January 2001 — from 4.61 million in July, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Tuesday. Compared with same period in the prior year, August’s job openings rose 23%, as private-sector openings increased 23% to 4.38 million, and government positions rose to 453,000 from 373,000. With 9.59 million unemployed people in August, there were about two potential job seekers per opening, below July’s ratio of 2.1. In August 2013, there were 11.26 million unemployed people — about 2.9 potential seekers per opening. When the recession began in December 2007, there were less than two potential job seekers per opening. The number of separations, such as quits and layoffs, fell to 4.44 million in August from 4.63 million in July. Meanwhile, the total number of hires dropped to 4.64 million from 4.93 million. The level of hires was about 5 million when the recession began.
Job openings at U.S. workplaces jumped up to 4.84 million in August — the most since January 2001 ??
No way this could have happened on Obama’s watch…Well 2-fruit…What say you ??
4.5 million of those are cashiers, retail clerks, and home health aides
None of whom will be “snapping up” $500,000 starter homes
“openings at U.S. workplaces jumped up…”
Before you take a victory lap to thank Obama, consider that employment rate is at something like 40 year lows, and wages have been falling for many years.
And if O would have increase public sector jobs like Reagan did, the score would even be better. But O want less gov spending the R>
scdave,
O screwed up royally by passing Dodd Frank (highly complex, touched every corner of capital markets, and slowed investment in the economy). Any improvement in the economy is despite O’s policies, not because of them.
From quite literally his first week in office (when Obama didn’t need any votes from the Republicans), Obama has been unable/unwilling to build a consensus with the right. And that has exacerbated the completely screwed up relationship between the left and right in Congress.
And so now that he has passed things like Dodd Frank and the ACA without any input from the right, he is completely unable to fix them.
Can a Tax Credit for Millennials Help Prevent Poverty?
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-07/a-proposal-for-earned-income-tax-credit-to-reach-younger-workers
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
Very nice article with stats about inked up loosers
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-10-07/what-tattoos-tell-us-about-the-economy
50 percent of people with a high school diploma or less live in a household with a tattooed person, compared with 22 percent of those who have attended graduate school
This link is just rich having been written by an Obama sychophant. Orzag being the liberal economist he is must have inside scooped the info.
I’d like to know what percentage of people receiving benefits such as food stamps, welfare, etc. have tattoos…or smoke, drink, take recreational drugs, own a late-model smart phone, or some combination of the above. I’d wager MOST of the people who allegedly don’t have enough money for basic essentials are somehow able to afford the above listed luxuries.
Why student loans are bad for your health
Published: Oct 7, 2014 9:40 a.m. ET
By Catey Hill
Reporter
Graduates feel increasingly pessimistic about their futures and burdened by student debt.
Want to know how grim the student loan debt problem is? Just ask our nation’s graduates and former college students, roughly half of whom say that had they known the impact student loans would have on their lives, they would have considered not going to college at all.
A survey released Tuesday by Citizens Financial Group finds that student loan debt negatively colors the way graduates and former students look at a college education. Indeed, far fewer former students and grads consider college a worthy investment (66%) than do current students (89%). “Buyer’s remorse” is part of what’s going on here, says Brendan Coughlin, the president of auto and education finance for Citizens — in that former students realize they borrowed too much relative to the career and life options they had once they graduated. “Many students are not doing the amount of due diligence on what the return on investment for their education [will be],” he says — a fact that becomes clear once they have to begin repaying their loans.
…
Teach ROI in high school. Some will get it.
Question. Has anything changed on Wall Street since the release of “Inside Job”? I bet it’s worse.
We all hoped things would change after Bush. doh!
Yeah, we now have more of these clowns feeling free to practice community agitation while you try to enjoy a meal.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/2014/10/06/woman-interrupts-restaurant-patrons-with-tears-and-screams-this-isnt-food-its-violence-wait-until-you-see-why/
#AlinskyIndoctrination
#FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica
This is just an observation and I sense there are reactions out there waiting to slam me like a bug on the windshield of life because I am mid age boomer and as my kids say - an old man. I digress….
All this hoopla about the ‘benefits’ of the new pot laws in CO have me very concerned. There are those around including the gubmit (tax revenue) who no matter the consequence(s) will tout something as beneficial when in realinda the down side is enormous. Why you say?
I have in my life time - near 58 years seen several of the lads from my gang in high school go down as a result of pot leading to heavier use of same or other mind alterants. One murdered back in the day dealing for a thug in Denver - shot in the head on a deal gone bad, another in the past couple of years - massive heart failure due to heavy pot and coke use. There are others but these are the two that come immediately to mind.
Seems the the gov there in CO - Hinkenlooper has caused a stir saying something to the effect that CO was reckless in voting this law into affect. All I gotta say there gov - if you were so very concerned, why the hell did you sign the paper authorizing its legitimacy? Mark my words there folks - This will turn out to be an epic fail in the future regardless of the ‘revenue’ it brings in. The misery pot and its travelers creates directly or indirectly will be sad and incalculable. Been in those circles and it does not end well.
Don’t do meth. Don’t do coke. Don’t do heroin. And don’t associate yourself with white trash thugs and wannabe gangsters.
Longer post on this topic to follow, you really have no idea what life is like here unless you live here.
I would argue that the fact pot is now ‘legal’ will change much of the dynamic you’re concerned about.
One doesn’t need to deal with ’shady characters’ to get marijuana now. One isn’t on the “wrong side of the law” by partaking, where they would have in the past. As such, casual use is actually possible, and easy.
Most folks are able to drink alcohol in relative moderation. I expect/hope pot use, where legal, will follow a similar pattern. Most folks who drink wine don’t end up chugging bottles of whiskey each night, knowwhatimean?
I would agree - booze has its issues as well. However - the devastation that boozing has on families with a member unable to control their drinking has very sadly life long consequences. Been there and know this first hand given my parents struggles with the bottle.
Booze is involved in lots of violent crimes and auto accidents. It ruins families, careers, health. There was a time when people in this country thought that it should be outlawed. That was tried for about a decade and the country decided that it was a bad idea.
“Most folks are able to drink alcohol in relative moderation. I expect/hope pot use, where legal, will follow a similar pattern. Most folks who drink wine don’t end up chugging bottles of whiskey each night, knowwhatimean?”
Most folks drink alcohol in relative moderation but way too many don’t.
Don’t get me wrong I used to be a member of DAMM (drunks against mad mothers) but if I make it a few more months I will be 27 years sober.
Motor Vehicle SafetyImpaired Driving
Impaired Driving: Get the Facts
Every day, almost 30 people in the United States die in motor vehicle crashes that involve an alcohol-impaired driver. This amounts to one death every 51 minutes.1 The annual cost of alcohol-related crashes totals more than $59 billion.2
How big is the problem?
In 2012, 10,322 people were killed in alcohol-impaired driving crashes, accounting for nearly one-third (31%) of all traffic-related deaths in the United States.1
Of the 1,168 traffic deaths among children ages 0 to 14 years in 2012, 239 (20%) involved an alcohol-impaired driver.1
Of the 239 child passengers ages 14 and younger who died in alcohol-impaired driving crashes in 2012, over half (124) were riding in the vehicle with the alcohol-impaired driver.1
In 2010, over 1.4 million drivers were arrested for driving under the influence of alcohol or narcotics.3 That’s one percent of the 112 million self-reported episodes of alcohol-impaired driving among U.S. adults each year.4
Drugs other than alcohol (e.g., marijuana and cocaine) are involved in about 18% of motor vehicle driver deaths. These other drugs are often used in combination with alcohol.5
http://www.cdc.gov/motorvehiclesafety/impaired_driving/impaired-drv_factsheet.html - 43k -
“Most folks are able to drink alcohol in relative moderation. I expect/hope pot use, where legal, will follow a similar pattern.”
What happens to people in Colorado that light up a cigarette or cigar, but only do it in moderation?
I bet they get the eye roll, the wave, the cough or have the police called on them. That is some double standard you so called “progressives” have put in place.
#OnlyIfItFitsOurNarrative
I have in my life time - near 58 years seen several of the lads from my gang in high school go down as a result of pot leading to heavier use of same or other mind alterants.
That slippery slope argument is something that many teenagers see right through as soon as they hear it. You could also say that kids start drinking beer and that leads to marijuana and other things.
Also, what paper did Hickenlooper have to sign? The whole point of a referendum is for the people of a state to be able to make laws without the involvement of the legislature or governor.
Mike - how old be you there friend? Reason I ask is age brings with it wisdom and context.
I’m in the same general age range that you’re in - too old to rock and roll, too young to die.
The concepts are pretty simple here, though. You don’t need a lot of wisdom to understand them. You have to consider the benefits of banning a substance and the drawbacks. In this case, the substance is a plant which is not too difficult to grow.
And Mike I mean no harm when I post questions and observations. To answer you second question - mob action and or majority decision still does not make something right - it is just the majority - that’s all.
That’s not an answer to my question. Does the governor of Colorado need to sign something after the people pass a referendum?
But regarding your point, each and every person can have his or her own opinion about what is right and wrong. That’s completely uncontroversial. If a law is based on a referendum, each voter’s opinion is equal in value.
Mike:
I understand your opinion. However I respectfully disagree and again say that the opinion of the mob does not make something right. Hinkenlooper as per the mandate of being governor has the RESPONSIBILITY to determine if - even in the face of mob rule - an issue is affecting public health, safety and welfare. This is his primary responsibility. He had the authority to delay signing the bill into law and chose not to.
As I recall even in a referendum a bill posed by the public must go through the normal legislative process before it becomes law. The people do not make laws - the legislatures of each state propose and then place a bill up for legislative vote to determine if it moves forward for signature by the governor of each state.
The mob can indeed ask for and propose a referendum - BUT it is the responsibility of law makers to determine how the law is enacted. I still maintain that the legislature and the governor are required to uphold the public health safety and welfare regardless of what the mob says.
As Hinkenlooper himself said - the referendum was a reckless act - I agree with him on that point.
Neil Young - Everybody Knows This Is Nowhere:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pesIGuV9DDk
the Dead Milkmen - Two Feet Off The Ground:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MQ9la5cp5fk
“She also recommended prospective buyers write a personal letter to sellers, saying why they want the house,”
F*ck that Housing Bubble bullsh*t behavior.
“She also recommended prospective buyers write a personal letter to sellers, saying why they want the house, and think carefully about what repairs they might be willing to make themselves.”
Don’t forget to tell them you’ll be sure to feed the squirrels…
Why so glum, Mr Market?
Business Day
Shares Slide After I.M.F. Cuts Outlook for Global Growth
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
OCT. 7, 2014
The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday on signs of weakening global growth.
While the American economy appears to be strengthening, the outlook elsewhere is far less encouraging. The International Monetary Fund trimmed its forecast for global economic growth, and a surprisingly weak report on industrial production in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, added to investors’ concerns.
Industrial companies, whose fortunes are closely tied those of the global economy, led the stock market’s sell-off. Government bonds rallied as investors moved into safe assets, pushing the yield on the 10-year Treasury note close to its lowest level of the year.
After a weak September, the slump in stocks is showing no signs of abating in October. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has now dropped almost 4 percent since closing at a nominal record on Sept. 18.
“Investors have become a bit more cautious about earnings and about the pace of global growth,” said Kate Warne, a principal at Edward Jones, an investment firm. “That reassessment is leading to a bit more caution on stocks.”
On Tuesday, the S.&P. 500 index fell 29.72 points, or 1.5 percent, to 1,935.10. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped 272.52 points, or 1.6 percent, to 16,719.39. The Nasdaq composite index fell 69.60 points, or 1.6 percent, to 4,385.20.
General Motors was among the biggest decliners in the S.&P. 500 after analysts at Morgan Stanley cut their price target for the stock. The analysts predict that the automaker’s earnings will suffer as it invests heavily in production. G.M.’s stock dropped $1.98, or 5.9 percent, to $31.77.
SodaStream was another big loser, tumbling $6.05, or 21.9 percent, to $21.52. The company said it was not gaining enough new customers in the United States and reported preliminary sales results that fell short of Wall Street’s expectations.
The prospect of slowing global growth weighing on corporate profits was behind the sell-off on Tuesday, said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at BMO Private Bank. Companies will soon start reporting earnings for the third quarter, and investors will be watching out for their forecasts for the rest of the year.
“Investors are starting to get worried that Europe is going to dent growth,” Mr. Ablin said. “It’s an open invitation for managements to lower their guidance.”
…
Treasurys
Why Treasurys may be this quarter’s best bet
Leslie Shaffer | Writer for CNBC.com
4 Hours Ago
The market widely expects Treasury prices to fall as Federal Reserve tightening inches closer, but contrarian bets that bonds will continue to march higher are emerging.
“We expect high uncertainty to make the fourth quarter a risk-off one,” Tim Condon, chief economist for Asia at ING, said in a note Tuesday. “Long-dated U.S. Treasurys and their proxies [investment-grade-rated bonds] are our top picks to perform in the fourth quarter,” he said, citing expectations investors will seek safe-haven plays.
…
The Fed
Greenspan frets over Fed losing control of rates
Matthew J. Belvedere
Friday, 3 Oct 2014 | 8:30 AM ETC
NBC.com
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told CNBC on Friday he’s concerned about how longer-term rates would react to a short-term tightening by the Federal Reserve.
“The major concern that everyone has obviously is once you get the interest rate movement in place it takes on a life of its own,” he said in a “Squawk Box” interview.
…
phony scandals