San Diego Home Prices ‘Tumble’
The Union Tribune reports from San Diego. “San Diego County’s home prices took their biggest tumble for any spring on record last month, DataQuick reported Tuesday. The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago. Sales slowed for the 23rd straight month on a year-over-year basis.”
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term ’soft landing’ to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to found a way to characterize current conditions. ‘I’m searching for a new moniker,’ she said.”
“She and other industry leaders have rejected analogies like a ‘housing bubble’ prone to popping.”
“In San Diego County, the median price decline in May occurred because of a major drop in the category that includes new construction and condo conversions. That decreased by $71,000 from April to May to stand at $424,000, a reflection of the impact of lower-priced conversion sales.”
“On a year-over-year basis, the new construction and condo conversion median price was $19,500 lower than the $443,500 median price reported in May 2005.”
“In the resale category, the median price of houses and other single-family homes rose by $14,500 from April to May to stand at $569,500, while the median price of condos increased by $2,000 to $397,000.”
.4% YOY - Below inflation!
Thanks to the readers who sent in this link.
This is interesting on the general subject of housing and the economy:
“It is our view that the ‘irrational exuberance’ has transferred from
stocks to housing, setting up conditions for a ‘housing deflation,’ writes
John Rubino at 321 Gold. “We expect a serious fall-off of home
construction, sales and values, starting in 2006, and becoming very
pronounced by 2007. A glut of new houses will accumulate in the next 12-24
months, causing a drop in price and construction of new units, and setting
up a serious risk of price decline (similar to the ‘tech wreck’ in the
stock market).”
++
*** More from John Rubino:
“The housing boom will almost certainly be followed by a long and painful
housing bust. We expect that a continued rise in interest rate spreads and
decline in housing sales and prices will push the U.S. in recession by
late 2006, and this recession will deepen in 2007, as the housing ‘wealth
effect’ turns into a ‘poverty effect.’ As defaults accelerate, lenders’
underwriting will tighten significantly, leading to a precipitous drop in
new home sales.
“On the heels of the housing downturn will come a downturn in consumer
spending, particularly in housing-related retail sectors (home improvement
items, furniture and appliances, etc.). This will happen because variable
mortgage rates are rising, fuel costs stay high, and the ‘wealth effect’
of the last 10 years quickly turns into a ‘poverty effect,’ forcing the
personal savings rate quickly back up to at least the U.S. long term trend
of 7.1%. With stocks and housing giving back the ‘asset bubble’
appreciation, the consumer has no choice but to resort to savings (as they
have in the past and as they do in all other countries once the ‘asset
bubble’ turns into an ‘asset bust’).
“The rising federal deficit, economic recession, lower interest rates, and
declines in real estate will all lead to substantial downward pressure on
the U.S. dollar. Falling U.S. interest rates will chase out investors,
weakening relative demand for the dollar. If the economy experiences an
asset deflation recession, the dollar could sink for a period of 3 -5
years, reaching new lows year after year.”
[Ed. Note: The housing market is five times bigger than the stock
market… and could wipe out as much as 10 times more wealth than a
complete stock market collapse.”
so true
I have read reports of lenders including some “fine print” terms into the loan agreement that allows them to forclose or a loan, even if the mortgage payments are made on time. The bank or creditor’s reasoning is that if a person becomes behind on other bils, which they can identify from a credit report, or if the person over extends themself with too much credit, that they can call for immediate repayment of the loan.
And for an adjustable rate loan, the interest rate could be increased in degrees relative to the risk the creditor thinks there is of not being paid back, for the same reasons I listed above
any info on that?
Please research it.
Generally mortgages are not callable.
I believe it was a safeguard instituted after the Great Depression when most mortgages were callable.
a couple years ago there was a documentary called the “”Secret History of the Credit Card”(watch it online. Which outlines why people may want to be very careful about any contracts for loans from a bank
What concerns me is that there has been an upheaval in the way mortgages are carried out, over that last 5-6 years. There has also been an upheaval in the bankruptsy protection laws. There has also been the introduction of “exotic loans”.
I have read reports that second mortgages do not carry the same protection from bankruptcy or keeping a house that the 1st mortgage do. I suspect that HELOC’s would be considered as a second mortgage. And perhaps they may even be a hybrid that would put them in the realm of a “credit card” which is governed differently than a first mortgage.
I recommend that everyone see the Frontline documentary that I put the link to above. You can watch it online for free. There is also a full transcript and supporting information to go along with it.
It would be nice if Frontline did a new investigative documentary into the exotic loans, the changes taking place in bankruptcy law, and the real estate “bidding wars” and other new phenomena that has taken place over the last few year.
Bottom line: never trust a banker not to screw you.
That’s a bit harsh - I am a banker (albeit a UK one), and in my experience, most bankers are pretty principled - at least the ones who last.
People often think bankers are screwing them, when actually they have done it to themselves by investing badly, overgearing, not hedging or whatever.
The bank’s responsibility is not to the borrower, it is to the shareholders of the bank.
It’s like people relying on estate agents to be independent - they aren’t - they act on behalf of the vendor.
Regards,
Loafer
New moniker -
How about “Hard Landing”!
I’m sure Suzanne is busy researching the new industry moniker but I suggest that they replace “soft landing” in their press releases with “Hindenburg Episode”.
Duck on Ice!
“Oh the humanity!”
Maybe like “tailspin” or “nose dive”
“Uncontrolled descent into terrain” - USAF (?)
(hat tip to poster “sp” on patrick.net)
Water landing. Belly landing. Wheels-up landing. Vertical descent.
“Vertical Spin” would do as it describes an unescapable consequence
Funny that the pilot term for crash is “Bought the Farm”.
Maybe that should be updated to “Bought the Condo”
“Circling the bowl.”
Catastrophic unplanned landing resulting in severe deceleration trauma.
How about “bending over and grabbing ankles” or “dropping the soap in the prison shower?”
BTW, in my car during lunch I heard a radio commerical from a mortgage lender talking about how all the “buildable land is rapidly diminishing” and how you better get in now or be priced out forever. The old “they’re not making anymore land” card was also pulled.
Did anyone see ‘Chips’ and the guy from the ‘dating show’ hawking lots and land in Texas and Arkansas on TV recently. LMAO Must be true - not making any more land. Market Retrograde anyone?
MARCO!!! NO!!!!!
Oh, and the Obligatory Estrada pic
Gravitational collapse.
similar (imagine a skydiver parachute malfunction):
High Speed Dirt.
Shifting Markets without a Clutch.
Partytime Shift.
Super Nova…. Black Hole….
Nonlinear financial macro-singularity. Has a nice catastrophic-scifi ring to it.
Damn! I’ll take Leslie as my comic straight man any time……I just knew when she said she was looking for a new moniker, someone on this site would oblige her…..LOL
New Moniker: Mission Accomplished !
Mission Cactus Enema
“In San Diego County, the median price decline in May occurred because of a major drop in the category that includes new construction and condo conversions. That decreased by $71,000 from April to May to stand at $424,000, a reflection of the impact of lower-priced conversion sales.”
I love how they try to explain that a DECLINE is not a DECLINE. A drop in prices, is just that, a drop in prices.
Imagine what June numbers are going to look like!
Haven’t we been hearing “the spring season will be the true, important measure of where this markent is heading”??? Now we know…I wonder what they will come up with next?
There’s only one week left in Spring!!
Look a puppy !!
lol…nice one
“Look! What’s that over there?”
“Hey, it’s the Goodyear blimp!”
I think there may be a June bounce-ette. Several long-sitting properties in my area seem to be under contract now. However visits to multi-phase constructions sites, such as Stonebridge in Poway bring frank reports of builders planning to strech out follow on phases.
Also of note, my business partner’s brother is a framer. No kidding, a real honest to god american (not ah.. guest worker) construction joe. Sounds like the folks that are getting let go first are the lower skilled people who were added during the “boom” to boost capacity.
While this has some of the same characteristics of the prior two downturns, there are some new, not seen before, facets to this one. Going to be worth watching in San Diego for sure.
I have two relatives in HVAC in San Diego.
One has been out of work for 4 months.
The other has had intermittent work for the last 4 months.
They are both in belt-tightening mode.
Sorry to hear about your relatives. I worry a lot of good people are going to be in for tough times for the next little while.
Sigalarm — that is very valuable input, IMO. Please post whatever you can learn from your partner’s brother. That is as close to the ground as we’re going to get, in the construction part of the whole.
My wife works for a company that does granite countertops. Let’s just say work is… slower. This is in the SFBay area.
“In San Diego County, the median price decline in May occurred because of a major drop in the category that includes new construction and condo conversions. That decreased by $71,000 from April to May to stand at $424,000, a reflection of the impact of lower-priced conversion sales.”
_________________________________________
Excuses…
Not just excuses, but a plausible strategy for the NAR. The natural instinct when people hear bad news (say a mugging) is to figure out why it won’t happen to them.
So choose a small segment of the market, and say that segment is the “problem”. Excellent strategy…
Not entirely.
People on this blog complained for over a year about how using the median price to describe a market is inheriently flawed. There were a lot of condo conversions, and towards the end most of them were crap. That had to lower the median price.
On the other hand, they never bother to ‘explain’ the factors that lead to an increases in the median price, like the change in mix of homes sold. They just allow you to assume that all prices went up.
Everyone seems to ignore the really important stat in this story. Twenty-three straight months of declining sales. That’s what confirms that we are nowhere near the bottom.
In fact if you read the article, rather than trying to make an excuse, they are spliting out the condo numbers so that they can claim that SFH are still increasing YOY. No one explains that only the better homes sell in this kind of a market.
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term ’soft landing’ to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to found a way to characterize current conditions. ‘I’m searching for a new moniker,’ she said.”
While she is schearching for a “moniker”, others should be scearching for a rope, this wind bag deserves to dangle…
Maybe she can search for her lost credibility while she’s at it.
I predict at this time next year she’ll be shakin her booty at the local T&A joint. Hope she’s not old coz as a RE agent that is about the only other job she is qualified for.
CRASH & BURN comes to mind
That is what I was going to call it. Crash and burn. How about augering in ?
I like
“augering in” of Chuck Yeager fame I believe, my personal favorite is “smoking hole”. Since San Dog is surrounded by water we must remind ourselves that holes in the water do not smoke.
I like that one as well
I was waiting for your comment.
My vote for the most descriptive handle.
How about “gone for a Burton”, as popularized by the poem “When a Beau goes in.” about a Bristol Beaufighter crashing in the english channel.
Like the desintegration of the space shuttle. It took only one little piece of foam to damage the sheild. Once the damaged sheild exposed to friction and heat, everything desintegrates and blows up.
works for me!
Has anyone mentioned the old skater term: “face plant”?
It’s good to see the decline finally materializing in So Cal. I can hardly wait to see the median price drop in LA. I do believe that prices here have started to fall, the median hasn’t reflected it yet. As we know , median is a $hit way to follow this.
Is there a better way to follow it?
http://www.novabubble.blogspot.com
Yep, we’re down to 3.5% increase y/y for single family homes in May in the San Fernando Valley. I think the price declines (which ARE going on now) will show up in the median by fall.
Like you said, the median is a terrible way to watch for price declines, but the general public won’t believe the market has changed until it shows up there.
Could be as soon as next month.
There were pretty big increases in most US markets between May and June 2005.
I remember seeing a couple of years ago a data collection group that was attempting to track housing based on same home sales and using that information to extrapolate where home values are going. With enough data, you can really do well with this method. I don’t know how (or whether) they accounted for improvements (additions, etc.), but I thought that the concept in general was very sound.
Does anyone know the name of this group? I don’t know if Zillow uses this method, but I like the concept.
The Case-Shiller index uses that methodology and OFHEO uses same unit conforming mortgage sales.
Median price drop big time as of July 4, 2006, just 3 weeks away. What house buyer is going to be that motivated to give up a beautiful Sunday afternoon with his/her family to visit another open house when they can spend quality time at the beach or the mountains. Give me a break! There ain’t nobody left out there that absolutely needs to BUY, and the 40% of the homes sold to investors last year are all upside down. What real estate agent will be willing to sit a Sunday open house in Phoenix in 119 degrees, or an open house in San Diego with the beach 10 miles away. 25% drop now and 40% by end of year.
I think it is important to remember that “incentives” have given median prices the appearance of being higher than what they trully are. An SUV or a cash rebate in exchange for paying a higher amount for a house means the house is worth the difference between those add ons and the contract price.
And in CA you will be paying property taxes on that SUV, Car or vacation for as long as you own the RE.
I’ve been plotting inventories in the West L.A. hills (Brentwood to W. Hollywood) for almost a year, under the assumption that these ritzy areas would contain “slightly less dumb” money that might lead the rest of LA. These inventories have been pretty flat in all that time, but have finally been increasing noticeably recently — by about 20% over the last 6 weeks.
My buddy in Hermosa Beach is waiting and watching for a price drop there. I zillowed an address across the street for him and found the new owner (bought in March) is trying to sell (flip) at $1.5 million after buying for $1.4 million (only $100,000 gain and not the tax free kind). I looked at past sales and it was sold for $610,000 in 2001. I advised him to ignore it until it is offered at $600,000. He agreed.
Keep in mind it is much worse than it appears due to the problems with the median as the metric, as has previously been beaten to death here and at Pigginton.com.
True but this is evidence that we are at the absolute affordability peak. Homes aren’t just overpriced here, they’re as expensive as they could possibly be. The dropping median is due to condo conversion sales but those sales are due to the mindbogglingly unaffordable housing prices.
All of those weird inaccurate measures are now working for the bears.
Agreed.
Median is a terrible measure of the market but it is the standard.
I hope the “tumble” headline appears in tommorow’s paper and not some waterdown BS.
The homepage says “Home prices slide in May” Sounds like something fun you’d find at a park
Does that young hotshot realtor at crispy & cole still have his MB car? That was a sign of the top.
He still does. They had a “glowing” article of him on the front page of last weeks paper. He now has body guards (he claims he is the next Steve Wynn).
He might need those bodyguards if he got some people in some bad RE deals and loans. I noted that the big spenders during a boom (bubble) tend to flame out as their expenses and operating costs are too high. They aren’t ready for tougher times. He might be in BK court down the line.
If it’s a Vegas analogy, maybe he’s the next “Moe Green”?
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term “soft landing” to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to found a way to characterize current conditions”
I’m sure someone here could be of assistance…
As a reward for her years of public service I suggest a considerable promotion from her current position as Chief Economist for the California Association of Realtors to something more suitable and honorable involving a different “position” and donkeys and Tijuana.
I knew you would miss us too much. Good to see you back!
It’s still a test. I lured he who is not named over to my blog and deleted his taunts. Who won the $100 he offered claiming I would change my name before returning? No one? Shock, surprise.
Leslie Appleton-Young is the Abby Joseph Cohen of the RE Bubble. She will be loathed by millions before all this plays out.
Joe Battapaglia was on CNBC yesterday. Weird. I had to check the settings on my wayback machine. Anyone else suspect it was Leslie Appleton-Young on the phone as the voice of Suzanne?
I have it on good authority that Suzanne is actually a chimpanzee in a UC Irvine lab, interacting with the world through picture buttons, a speech synthesizer, and the internet.
very funny, I like that.
Absolutely disgusting!
Who would want to walk three blocks past hussongs bar, hang a left on the corner, go three doors down till you see a sign that reads “blue fox” knock twice, pause then knock again. Sit at table # 3 for the best view?
So I’m told….
Not that you would know about it.
LMAO
I have never had the “pleasure” but if Leslie takes her promotion, I will be knocking at the Blue Fox.
How’s this for a new moniker…
“Me so horny! Me so horny!”
Leslie Appleton-Young and David Liarreah are both welcome where I work. We are hiring cruise missle test pilots. LAY and DL, please post on this blog for contact information.
When homes like this are still selling for more than $75k, it is NOT a buyers market.
http://tinyurl.com/gtzao
Cue theme song to “Sanford and Son” while viewing this house. It makes for nice background music.
listen to or download the Sanford and Son theme song
I grew up a half a mile from that house. The Sanford and son analogy is right on since the character and the house are in Watts. Well technically, the house is just outside the Watts boundaries but you get the picture. For those of you that don’t know, Watts is not exactly country club.
Damn, Barnum. That is one helluva find. Scary.
UK equivalent (but 31K GBP is not even close to 216K USD :o).
http://tinyurl.com/etvg7
Look on the bright side, it has a nice front door. You can rebuild around that.
everytime i re-arrange the letters in appleton-young’s name i come up with the same thing:
a penal guy on top.
penal as in prison, of course
Try some of my mine:
BubbleGram:
Leslie Appleton-Young =
“Supplely one-line goat.”
“Loony, supple, elite nag.”
“Opulently lie on pages.”
“Ugly, plane, loonie pest.”
“A leg opens unpolitely.”
“Nag opulently pose lie.”
“Poop lies unelegantly.”
“O! Sloppy, unelegant lie.”
Good stuff!
Good stuff!
tickled me!
Great anagrams, Rainman18!
Here are a few more:
“ogle upon lies aplenty”
“optionally see plunge”
“insolently up ego plea”
“peoples lie an ugly ton”
“lie a peel ugly nonstop”
“a longest lie openly up”
“a loony lie plunge pest”
Do you guys and gals have a lot of time on your hand or is there some automated way of generating those?
Lots of them. try
http://www.wordsmith.org/anagram/
That’s kind of scary, “housing bubble” becomes “hubbub goes nil”
If we put her face on a dart board and sold them to FB’s, think we could make some money?
OT
I work for the Fountain Valley School District in Orange County. We have some properties for sale. Last week this was posted on our school district letter. The 20 acres on the combined Wardlow and Lamb sites sold at public auction on February 9 to Centex Homes. However, due to unforeseen complexities with the City of Huntington Beach regarding entitlements, Centex chose to forfeit its non-refundable deposits to the district and withdraw from the sale. It is the district’s intention to hold another public auction on the property on June 22. Centex probably felt they over paid considering the market has changed since February. I would loved to know how much deposit they walked away from. On a side note. I got my lay off notice from the district this week. 35 other employees will be losing their jobs as of June 21 and retirees are not being replaced. Low enrollments and some jobs were being supported by interest generated from the the sell of properties.
Sorry to hear that, Shannon.
Sorry to hear about your job. Schools here in Bay Area are closing left and right due to lack of enrollment.
I hope it works our for you.
Sorry to hear that too. Good luck in future endeavors.
I would love to see a politician with the guts to stand up for families over speculators and the RE industry. They could run on a platform of slapping a Speculation Tax on 2nd homes (but NOT primary residences). The rapid exit of these cockroaches, followed by the equally rapid decline in home prices, would allow young families with children the opportunity to stay in communities like OC, instead of doing a reverse dust-bowl migration to Kansas or Colorado or some other place where they can actually afford to live and send the kids to a decent school district.
I’d love to see ANYONE prominent stand up and tell this country what we are about to experience. So far all we get is deny, deny, deny and now we get soft, soft, soft landing. Guess what ? Its going to be a lot worse than that ! Its about time that people started realizing that and planning appropriately.
I believe there was a very famous one. His name was Henry George. And during the time of his later life, it is reported he was one of the three most well known people in the world, along with Albert Edison, and .
He, his philosophy, and teachings, were the inspiration behind the creation of “The Landlord’s Game“, which later became the game of “Monopololy”.
Among the things most notable about his life is that he wrote the book “Progress and Poverty”, his teachings of the “single tax” on land AKA “land value tax”(LVT). He ran for Mayor of the City of New York.
He so touch millions of people that people founded an institute to continue his teachings. Martin Luther King has also quoted him.
The troubling thing, which I believe Henry George was concerned about, as is played out in the game of Monopoly, if people play life like the game of monopoly, then the end of the game is when everyone is bankrupt except the winner and the winner owns everything.
And it appears that some corporations are moving in that directions.
Good luck to you!!
Sorry to hear that.
And everytime I hear we can not pay for our school system, I think WHAT IS WRONG WITH OUR SOCIETY?
It is OT, but can not resist venting a little.
If this is happening now with extra housing tax $$$, what will happen next year and year after.
The folks in Asia , they in general sacrifice other things to support the schooling system. The parents would mortgage their homes to send kids to school.
We have a good higher education sytem, but again the students are disproportionately from outside USA. Can not we make it easier for our kids to go to university than to work in Mcdonalds.
Luckily many of the external students do stay back, however recenlty many are leaving to enrich their homeland. A seperate issue….
I think what is happening is that the schools are paid based on enrollment numbers and the enrollment numbers are dropping do to younger families leaving CA. This is actually a temporary windfall for the state overall but due to typical crazy government accounting, the schools don’t see it. It won’t do any good on the state level either.
Huh? Here in socal the schools are overflowing with immigrants, alot of whom don’t speak English. Add that to a top heavy school district llike LA Unified and not much help from the feds ,there’s never enough money, even though Arnold just came up with $2B now and another $3B in a couple years (so he can claim he’s the education gov.)
Huh? Here in socal the schools are overflowing with immigrants, alot of whom don’t speak English. Add that to a top heavy school district llike LA Unified and not much help from the feds ,there’s never enough money, even though Arnold just came up with $2B now and another $3B in a couple years (so he can claim he’s the education gov.)
Sorry about your job, it certainly looks like another distortion of the credit/RE bubble.
Selling off empty schools in heavily urbanized areas is a bad idea.
I think that it is interesting that Centex backed out. That is the most telling.
…and then 5 years from now the school district will scramble to buy land to build new schools again. Why don’t they just hold onto it, and reailize the cycle may require it.
arg.. okay I feel better
It’s not all bad when a school is sold. The Kennedy School in Portland has been converted into an excellent brew pub (McMenamans).
There are no nice old buildings worth saving in OC, unlike PDX.
In Norwood, MA they had an old elementary school building that the town rented out. The town retained it in case there was another upward trend in population. I heard about it in the 90s.
It was an old building. I’m sure it had already been paid for…and was generating perpetual income until the town needed it. I always wondered if skyrocketing property values might have pushed the town into selling it after all. It’s off Nahatan Street in case anyone knows!
Yours isn’t the only school district. The district I work for will actually have an entire school campus empty this coming year. Spectacular planning by our school board.
Yeah, sorry to hear, good luck with what comes next…
“…but has yet to found a way to characterize current conditions. ‘I’m searching for a new moniker,’ she said.”
This is a first: An RE cheerleader that’s run out of phrases to put a positive spin on a declining market without sounding like an idiot.
How ’bout “creampuff(up-in-smoke)”?
or… “charming(nuclear-meltdown)”?
Lots of Realtor terms can be recycled!
While we’re on the subject of Bubblegrams, how about a rebroadcast from the BTC Vault…
KBTC interrupts this blog to bring you the following educational program.
Hey boys and girls! It’s me, your old trusty pal Bubbles the Clown!
Are you ready to have some more goofy, crazy fun with me?! Okay, let’s go!!!
On today’s show, we’re gonna talk about my best, most favorite friends! You guessed it…The Realtors! Now don’t boo kids, Bubbles thinks that The Realtors are just misunderstood. And to show you, I’ve come up with a special wacky invention. It’s called the “Anagram-o-nater”! Do you know what an anagram is? That’s right, it’s when you take a word or a phrase and you mix and jumble all the letters around and come out with something completely different using the exact same letters! And since Realtors say funny, crazy mixed up things all the time, Bubbles thought, hey!, we could take what the Realtors say and put it in the Anagram-o-nater and see what they really meant to say or to reveal what’s really lurking behind the scenes. It’s kind of a reverse anagram! FUN! And it doesn’t just work with phrases, you can put in a name or a real estate term or whatever! Some are scary, some might make you put on your thinking caps, and some are just silly!
And later kids, in THE BTC FUN ZONE, Bubbles will have a special jumbled up message to all of my Realtor friends that you can unscramble yourselves! Yippee!
Okay, just to show you how it works and that I’m a good sport, Bubbles will go first.
Rearranging the letters of ‘Bubbles the Clown’ makes:
“Blew belch on stub.”
Yikes! Bubbles does that all the time!
Okay, ready?! Here we go!
Rearranging - ‘David Lereah’ - makes:
“Drivel ahead.”
“Lie hard, Dave!”
Linda Rheinberger – President of the GLVAR =
“Gin-bred hen liar”
“Nag! Bridle her in!”
‘National Association of Realtors’ =
“Fiasco reason? Totalitarian loons.”
‘Realtor’ =
“Rat role”
‘sellers agent’ =
“Less large net”
“Green sets all”
“Glee slants RE”
‘buyers agent’ =
“Say, Be urgent!”
“Grub easy net.”
“Greet by anus.”
‘I don’t see a housing bubble’ =
“No? Bite us, biased Bunghole.”
“Baboonish but dense guile.”
’soft landing’ =
“Told in fangs.”
“Lift and snog.”
“Sat fondling.”
“Fling ‘n’ toads.”
That’s right kids, the next time you hear a Realtor talk about a soft landing, you can say, “Oh, he’s just ‘fling ‘n’ toads’!”
‘For now, prices are holding steady’ =
“Fictional, sharp-eyed wrongdoers.”
“Craftily wrong-headed poisoners.
‘fifteen percent slam dunk’ =
“Stiff-necked, mental prune.”
“Fun speckled, eminent fart.”
Bubbles giggled about that one too! Yuk!
‘This time it’s different’ =
“Fiend’s thriftiest item.”
’supply and demand’ =
“Spend lad! Any dump.”
“Dump and deny pals.”
“Damn! Spend up lady.”
“Nap, muddled pansy”
’spring bounce’ =
“Benign corpus.”
“Cringe up, Snob.”
‘median home price’ =
“Ha! Demonic Empire.”
“I’m cheaper, dim one.”
‘They aren’t making anymore land’ =
“An arrogant, keen, many lied myth.”
“Markedly mean, annoying threat.”
“Oh My! A kindly, neat arrangement.”
“I’m the lanky and arrogant enemy.”
‘Everyone wants to live here’ =
“Oh! Sweaty, reverent Evil one.”
’strong job growth’ =
“Grr! Job ghost town.”
‘This place is special’ =
“Happiest, classic lie.”
‘You’ll be priced out forever’ =
“Foul, corrupt evil-eyed bore.”
“Corruptively feeble odour.”
‘Price reduction’ =
“Priced neurotic.”
“Rerouted picnic.”
‘San Diego Real Estate’ =
“Eerie loads stagnate.”
“Alas! It degenerate so.”
“Genitals adore tease.”
Bubbles couldn’t agree more with that one kids, those stagnating loads are eerie!
‘Florida Real Estate’ =
“Deteriorate as fall.”
“Fatal or dearest lie.”
“O Dear! Frailest tale.”
‘Orange County Real Estate’ =
“A snooty, elegant creature.”
“Anal courtesy to teenager.”
Umm, Bubbles has no comment…move along.
Now when Bubbles put in ‘Phoenix Real Estate’ the Anagram-o-nater started smoking and gurgling and spit out a whole bunch of ‘em. What do you suppose that means kids?!
‘Phoenix Real Estate’ =
“A hot, retail expense.”
“Expense: hot air tale.”
“Experts heat on a lie.”
“A present, elite hoax.”
“Hoax lies penetrate.”
“A honest expert? A lie.”
“Expose alien threat.”
“Repeat hot alien sex.”
“Ho! Aliens eat expert.”
“Aha! No elite experts.”
“Expire to anal sheet.”
‘Las Vegas Real Estate’ =
“Savage tearless tale.”
“Leave large ass taste.”
Yuck!
Yea! Wasn’t that fun?! I hope you enjoyed that as much as Bubbles did! I think we all understand our friends The Realtors just a little bit better now, don’t you?! If those zany folks would just stop trying to confuse us, Bubbles wouldn’t have to use the Anagram-o-nater to figure out what they’re saying, and could go back to making margaritas with it!
DOINK! Hey! Do you know what that sound means?….that’s right, it’s time for THE BTC FUN ZONE!!!
Bubbles has made his own special message to Realtors but it’s all scrambled up and he needs your help! Can you be the first one to unscramble it and send it in to the show? If you are, you’ll get a special BTC housing decoder ring so you can decipher what a house is really worth and not the zany price on the flyer! Yea!
Okay here it is.
“Worriedly un-gutsy, hideous loony-bin.”
Okay Bubbles will give you a hint…here’s how it goes:
ruyo intoysheds liwl eb uory nuigond.
Good Luck! And kids, if you come up with any Real Estate anagrams, send ‘em in to the show. Or if you have sayings you’d like Bubbles to put into the Anagram-o-nater, just send those in and we’ll see what it spits out!
Allrighty! See ya next time!
Buh-Bye Kids! And remember: Bubbles the Clown is Fun! Housing bubbles are icky.
A rainman18production 2006 copyright
BTC#3
Bubble to realtors: “Your dishonesty will be your undoing!”
When do I get my ring?
I’m sorry huggy but you put an exclamation point in your answer. Unfortunatly that disqualifies your response.
And since you got the rest correct for everyone to see, we have no choice but to cancel the prize…I’m told it’s a legal thing.
Oh well, if it’s a legal matter then I guess that’s different.
But I don’t care because I’m just glad Bubbles is back. Last I heard he was in rehab.
I hope the Betty Ford Center wasn’t too rough on ol’ Bubbles.
Hey your back . Some other guy wrote a song when you were in rehab. I wouldn’t put up with that for one minute if I were you .
ok rainman - shut the h*ll up!
(these mac keyboards are getting EXPENSIVE to replace!!!!)
I want a finders fee. I’ve got a half dozen of these in the closet. It is cheaper than cleaning the damn things. Superior tactile, normal layout, programmable, still supported by logitech, 10.4.6 tested, scroll wheel!, iTunes keys!, $9.
http://www.dealsurprise.com/loinnake9brn.html
Like I said, cheaper than Q-Tips and paper towels.
Thats the best medicine I’ve tasted in a while. Thanks bubbles.
How do I get a copy of the anagraminator for my desktop?
Rainman:
Keep it up that is hilarious.
You are giving Auction Heaven a run for the humor prize.
Auction:
Get out there and get to work.
If someone told me seven months ago that in the future I would be talking to a clown named Bubbles ,on a Housing Bubble Blog ,and I would enjoy songs about the coming demise of the housing market , I would of said “your nuts”.
Thanks for the laugh .
How about moniker “FUCKED HOUSING R US”, “You R F&CKED” “F&CKED HOMEBDEBTORS” “UPSIDEDOWN FUCKING”, etc. What a moron she is. How can you spin the obvious?
The moniker - Vaseline (R)
‘The number of California homeowners having difficulty paying their mortgage is going up. New statistics show the specifics: the number of foreclosures is clearly on the rise.’
‘In California there are more than 2,500 homes in foreclosure. There are nearly 85,000 pre-foreclosures. Those are homeowners who are on the verge of losing their homes.’
‘In Sacramento there are 165 current foreclosures, more than 4,500 homes are in pre-foreclosure.’
‘In San Joaquin County there are 76 foreclosures and more than 2,800 pre-foreclosures.’
The video available at the right side-bar is a huge turn-around in the coverage on this issue.
85,000 pre-foreclosures…wow! Just imagine what the market will be like a year or two from now after all the ARM resets have kicked in.
This information is finally hitting the streets, even here on the CA Central Coast. Funny how when I used to talk about the dangers of these loans (back in the ‘olden days’ of 3-12 months ago), people looked at me like I had two heads. Now that the information is coming through the local media, it has become “truth” and I am hearing people quoting these stories like gospel. I can understand not being informed on any given matter (I am uninformed on many many things), but it does scare me a little to see how little data convinces people until it is coming at them via their local tv anchors. . . .
This information is finally hitting the streets, even here on the CA Central Coast. Funny how when I used to talk about the dangers of these loans (back in the ‘olden days’ of 3-12 months ago), people looked at me like I had two heads. Now that the information is coming through the local media, it has become “truth” and I am hearing people quoting these stories like gospel. I can understand not being informed on any given matter (I am uninformed on many many things), but it does scare me a little to see how little data convinces people until it is coming at them via their local tv anchors. . . .
And those same poeple forgot you had told earlier too probably. Funny how people’s brains work.
So much for giving Hispanics the experience of homeownership through all those “innovative loan programs”.
Thanks for the video link Ben. I’m simply appalled at the ‘oh well’ attitude that the mother of four in the news piece is taking her foreclosure notice. To listen to her actually say, “I got into it not knowing too much about home ownership” just astounds me to the point where I’m shaking my head. Since when did buying a home without thinking about the repercussions of inaffordability become a non-issue? Did I miss something? I mean for crissakes……you have 4 kids who are depending on you!
Yeah, so much for the mortage industries’ position that they are educating the borrowers.
why should that surprise you? these are the same people who throw their kids in dumpsters when they don’t want them. they do NOT think ahead, or do much thinking of any kind. they simply breed and consume. sadly this attitude is becoming very prevalent even with americans, and i for one and tired of paying for all these parasites’ luxuries.
BTC is just too funny. Still laughing.
Why doesn’t this site get NATIONAL media coverage ? I mean, why does the media keep interviewing the same idiots instead of looking here for some information. We seem to be just as good or way, way, way better at seeing what is actually going on. We are realists and we don’t have stock in homebuilders and we are not the president of anything. We are just people that come together and discuss what is really happening.
It could cause a panic.
The nationalal ‘main stream media’ is petrified of the blogosphere. You know, all these ‘blogs’ where ‘just anyone’ can write and actually tell the truth.
Translation: the big corporate interests don’t control it. The ones who keep telling us there will be a RE ’soft-landing’; that inflation is 3%, that the decificits don’t matter. and on and on.
So don’t hold your breath waiting for them to acknowledge actual useful information from sights like Ben’s. We have to spread the word, one person at a time.
..and a big thanks to Ben for all of his hard and persistant work here.
“… is petrified of the blogosphere”
not necessarily because blogosphere is still mostly opinion. much of the news we hear/read/see comes from them.
and thanks to all the commenters who have added further insight into many of the areas we have discussed, and to those that have brought real information and reports from the field in their communities, and those that have share the slueth internet skills to bring us some gem stories on the internet.
Achtung! Bloggers tend to represent the “intelligentsia” and as such we will be the first ones rounded up thereby decapitating the dissenting voices. I can see it now, Leslie and David in Nazi uniforms.
Because the media lives by selling advertising to these businesses. It’s not really good to report the truth, specially when there are rumours that GM or Ford are almost bankrupt. The same applies for other advertisers.
The “liberal media” is only as liberal as the big corporations that run them. The media is here to report what corporate America wants you to think.
35% of all SD listings now have price reductions, compared to 26% in January.
see more at Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking
I follow a very small valley north east of Los Angeles (Simi Valley) and they are up to 43% of all listed properties being listed as reduced. Amazing! The number of total homes listed is also up by nearly 85% since March 1, 2006. Also amazing.
Isn’t Simi Valley northWEST of LA?
There is a new housing development off of First St. Now accepting/paying for real estate agents.
Also, the list price has been removed.
Very interesting. I have seen prices come down a bit. A friend of mine has a house for sale for 900K up at the top of Tapo. Good view, good lot, nice house, but definitely not 900K nice.
Anyway, it’s been on the market for 4 months without a single offer. My friend is talking about coming down to 875K. I laughed. Should be 800K (if that) if they want to start getting some offers right now.
the increasing % speaks volume. We have a higher number of listings now compared to January. So, the absolute number of reduced listings had gone up through the roof.
TITANIC
This housing market is unsinkable!
The media should be having an interview with Ben and Bubbles. How does that sound?
Or Ben Laden and Ben Bernanké. The two Bens.
Everyone, click on the news article that Ben put out about CA foreclosure increase. Then notice the offers from their partners, get your toxic loan here, sign on to be a Realt whore, etc. Too funny.
But But But….
everybody wants to live in San Diego.
I’m sure this is the media’s fault.
I sold my condo in 2005 in San Diego (Mission Hills neighborhood). Since, a few have been put on the market, some for higher some for lower. None are selling.
clouseau
Mission Hills is an interesting area.
There was a 1600 sq. ft. home that sold for ~1 million last year - must have been built in the 1920’s. Wonder how long those kind of prices can last in this environment?
http://www.wolfnebraska.com/403.htm
Even small towns in the midwest have been cursed by the bubble. Can you imagine paying $185K for this????
nobubblehere, are you serious? Are you reporting from Nebraska?
Is that an inflated price for that house? It looks very good to me recently coming out of the San Diego area.
What SHOULD it go for?
believe it or not, yes I could. Assuming it’s a homey town with decent people, it looks quite livable. It would be nice to jump out the rat-race here in CA and relax, and would probbly be better for kids to grow up there. Mortage would be nothing, maybe I could even make a living selling paintings on eBay or something…
I think nobubblehere is having some fun at the Calis expense.
We deserve it
Remember, you’ll be making $30k/year, so it won’t look so “cheap” to you once you’re there.
This notion of San Diego prices tumbling is simply a media rumor. Everyone knows that San Diego housing prices always go up.
Truth to power. That’s what I like about you ‘Stucco. Keep it up.
ziprealty in OC now showing like 420 houses, 164 reduced. that’s nearly 40% my mathematically challenged brain tells me. Flipper round the corner has reduced his place from 930 to 910 to like 850 now in just couple months… when it gets to like 400 i may be interested.
“The median price of all homes sold in May was $490,000, down $15,000 from April, although it was still slightly higher than a year ago.”
Who gives a r@t’s @ss about the YOY? How far have San Diego prices dropped from last year’s peak? That is the relevant statistic…
“Who gives a r@t’s @ss about the YOY? How far have San Diego prices dropped from last year’s peak? That is the relevant statistic…”
I agree. When one talks about stocks, you don’t care about YOY. You care about gains in the last week, month, since the peak, since you bought, etc. Who cares about YOY ?
The peak statistic will only be relevant when shown in YOY terms.
for example, my old neighborhood (AZ) it will be Oct. 2006/Oct. 2005.
When was the peak in San Diego?
It is relevant now, in the sense of “how much money did those who bought at the peak lose thus far,” but conveniently ignored by the real estate industrial complex.
Isn’t there a smell of panic or pre-panic in the air these days? Dow, Nasdaq, S&P erasing their gains, overseas markets tanking, commoditties too. A sea of blood.
There is a smell of panic in the air. Things are getting really interesting. All the hype about commodities is going away and I can’t help buy think that people must realize that fewer houses = fewer commodities.
The bankers have declared “war” on inflation and are talking tough to take the fun out of investing in commodities / precious metals for any newcomers to the party. A flight to quality is underway; problem is the flight is to what is perceived as quality, i.e. the dollar. The dollar is a dead man walking and everybody knows it except Joe Sixpack. Joe will dump his house, dump his stocks, be scared $hitless of gold and silver, and hoard whatever ducats he still has in Federal Reserve Notes, just in time for the next leg down in the dollar to commence.
In the meantime, the strong hands are all too happy to exchange worthless pieces of paper and bytes in a database for your real commodities and precious metals at bargain prices.
“Be brave when others are afraid, be afraid when others are brave”. Bulls and bears always forget this basic Buffett rule.
There was a lot of talk in the previous threads about how gold and silver are “done”. Man, they haven’t even got started yet. All they are doing is correcting to their 200 dma’s. Look at the three year and five year trends.
The fundamentals and the trend are always your best friends. BB can only prolong the inevitable demise of the dollar, and in doing so, only make it worse. Consider the insanity of “saving” in units of measure that can be created by keystroke.
As Jesus Quintana said in “The Big Lebowski”, “LAUGHABLE MAN, LAUGHABLE”.
Well put, SLO. I owned gold in 2004 but sold before the run-up. After today’s nearly 8 percent decline (Yikes!), it is actually looking better as a short-term investment.
But, I get what you are saying about long term prospects, too…it really is kind of funny that most people’s savings/retirement (including mine) has been reduced to simply bits of data and keystrokes, as you put it.
Anthony, now that I have calmed down a bit (even the most insanely bullish PM freak like myself is going to be dizzy after the serious butt whupping we’ve gotten in the last couple of weeks), I would simply submit that in the end, honest money will once again assert itself.
Along the way, there will be speculative blow-off tops and bottoms, since nothing goes up in a straight line. But for those who think that what has been real money for 6000 years will not be capable of eventually outdoing the same value spikes that we saw in stocks (thru 2001) and housing (thru 2005), I would humbly suggest a deeper look at the situation.
As for the proper topic at hand, housing, this blog has done a great job of chronicling what happens when a utility asset that should normally depreciate due to wear and tear reverts to its mean rate of appreciation, i.e. a bit better than inflation in the long haul.
Oh, I have never had any doubts about the horrendous future of the housing market in the next 6 years. That’s why I gave up homeownership for renting!!
Still, it is amazing how many common folk do not want to believe that these high housing prices can’t be supported; inventory in coastal northern Cal is slowly increasing, but there is far more buying going on than I would have expected. It seems like the supply of grayhaired boomers arriving with millions stashed in the bank is endless. Just frustrating sometimes…
“Be brave when others are afraid, be afraid when others are brave”. Bulls and bears always forget this basic Buffett rule.
What would happen if everyone followed this advice? Ugh, it’s all twisty, and makes my head hurt.
There seems to be a lot of negativity around homebuilder stocks recently, should I be buying them?
The psychological aspect is only useful once underlying conditions have been analyzed. I sold my gold position today for a good gain but obviously not what I would have had a couple weeks ago. It just looks to me like fundamentally the wheels are coming off the whole damn wagon a hell of a lot faster than a lot of people expected, including me. I believe I will be happier trading my electronic bytes representing dollars for electronic bytes representing claims on assets at some future date when prices are even lower.
In the meantime my shorts continue to give me good gains.
“Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors, said she no longer uses the term ’soft landing’ to describe the state of the housing market, but has yet to found a way to characterize current conditions. ‘I’m searching for a new moniker,’ she said.”
“She and other industry leaders have rejected analogies like a ‘housing bubble’ prone to popping.”
BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHH!!!!
“She and other industry leaders have rejected analogies like a ‘housing bubble’ prone to popping.”
What exactly are the criteria to be called an “industry leader”? Honesty and intelligence don’t seem to be among them.
represents an industry *authority*
This made my day. Leslie Appleton-Young is at a loss for a happy, fluffy innocuous phrase to describe the nosedive that the SD market is taking. Thanks Leslie! BAHAHAHA!
What I’m seeing in areas I’m watching is sellers giving up on selling their homes for now. The signs are coming down. But in spite this, the inventory numbers are still going up relentlessly as more For Sale signs are popping up like dandelions.
no “soft landing”?
a shining happy newspeak: not a bubble popping!
oh no not that, maybe more of a
“”soft smiting”", or perhaps
“”whisper whacking”", oh wait—-
“”rectal realignment”???
Looks like Paulson wants Goldman to take marketshare away from Fannie and Freddie.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/060613/mortgage_giants.html?.v=2
You go, Hank!
Some days I’m ashamed my first name is Leslie.
Thank the gods I’m not that Leslie, though!
And new guesses on when the nosedive really gets moving now, in CA, specifically SD? It all seems to be happening faster than originally thought.
Just how do we know you’re not that Leslie?
Somebody check her papers!
I could be David Lereah for all you know.
We all know David is lurking here somewhere.
The loons at Lansner’s blog are thick.
I am thinking of pulling an Auction Heaven, and disappearing.
Zillow is still showing price increases in my neighborhood, and I just figured out why. A 697 square foot 2BR/1BA sold in 12/05 for 790k, or 1,133 a square foot! A good illustration of how medians/comps can continue to rise as sales slow, since a couple of houses with similar characteristics are just sitting on the market even with asking prices much lower than $790k.
Leslie is the one who as recently as November 2005 said that Central Valley appreciation would lead the state, averaging 8-16% for 2006. Well, unless my former property in Visalia goes up 25% from today’s prices, it doesn’t look like that is going to happen.
But, Visalia IS different; real estate ALWAYS goes up!
I was driving home early Sunday morning through Bakersfield
Listening to real estate ads on the christian radio station
And the realtor said, “You know you always have the
appreciation by your side”
And I was so pleased to be informed of this that I bought
Twenty houses in his honor
Thank you appreciation, thank you Lord!
I had an arrangement to meet a realtor, and I was kind of late
And I thought by the time I got there she’d sell off
To the nearest flipper she could find
Much to my surprise, there she was
Sittin’ in the corner of her condo
A little bleary, worse for wear and tear
Was a realtor with far away lies
So if you’re down on your luck
And you can’t qualify
Find a realtor with far away lies
Well the realtor kept right on saying that all I had to do was send
Ten dollars to the church of the sacred no doc no down loan
Located somewhere in Los Angeles, California
And next week they’d buy my house for me
And all my dreams would come true
So I did, the next week, I got a house, and a realtor
Well, you know what kind of lies she got
So if you’re down on your luck
And life ain’t worth a dime
Get a realtor with far away lies
It is very important that these blogs exist. Although we only represent anecdotal evidence, and a fair share of nutcases do visit and spread vomit at this site, that does not take away from the fact that there is no agenda from most of the people writing in.
We are inundated by people with agendas who call themselves unbiased. Anyone with any experience in research and science knows that much official dated is skewed by the researcher but still seems quite impressive when backed by a prestigious university or corporation. Certainly we need to evaluate credibility since that is a commodity rarer than platinum these days.
I kind of like some of the stuff the nutcases post. It adds some flavor to the discussion.
Agree, Rancho!
flia78dj fi399-2 $#56 fksofk a.s. fladbar skoofpulf.
We all have points of view, but the difference is admitting it versus lying about it. Here’s to the hopeful return someday of ethics and values in our culture. Until then there are glimmers of truth here that you’ll never learn from the media.
I may be very ignorant, but who is Ben? I love this blog and my life has changed with this blog, but I was thinking, why am I always looking at this blog. Never realized it until now! Sorry!
There are a number of Ben’s.
Central Banker - Ben Bernanke
Owner of this blog - Ben Jones
Almost negative, not quite. We’ll see what happens when we go negative on single family resales and the overall median for a few months in a row. That will be the “psychological” nail in the housing boom’s coffin. The downward spiral will begin and who knows when it will stop or end.