Bits Bucket for October 13, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Top 10 Sellers Markets
1) San Jose
2) San Francisco
3) Seattle
4) Dallas
5) Denver
Top 10 Buyers Markets
1) Providence
2) Cleveland
3) Philadelphia
4) Milwaukee
5) Chicago
I seem to detect a trend here…..
http://www.zillow.com/blog/buyer-seller-index-fall-2014-160151/
Better get out while the getting’s good.
San Francisco housing: Time for a correction?
Diana Olick
Thursday, 9 Oct 2014 | 8:57 AM ETCNBC.com
San Francisco is arguably one of the hottest real estate markets in the nation. Fueled by the technology economy, it has a limited supply of homes for sale, which has resulted in fierce competition and sky-high home prices. Rents also have grown in tandem.
“Have things cooled down a little bit? Yes. However, the properties that are still priced right and properly prepared, it’s a 10-to-12 day market,” said Jeff Salgado, a partner with McGuire Real Estate.
San Francisco home prices were up just more than 10 percent in July, according to the latest S&P/Case Shiller home price indices. It was the only one of the top 20 U.S. markets, however, to see a monthly price decline, down 0.4 percent from June on a seasonally adjusted basis.
“It’s their comeuppance,” declared Nobel laureate Robert Shiller, co-author of the indices on CNBC recently. “They were the most bubbly city. It’s time for a correction.”
…
.4 percent Isnt a comeuppance. 40 percent will be.
Bottom is a long way down.
Or perhaps fewer people want to live in the northeast?
Yeah. Nobody wants to live in the northeast. That’s why the northeast has the highest density population in the US.
●Think● J._Fraud.
I am thinking. Density. That is why people are leaving …..Think HA, think.
There is plenty of space in the northeast J._Fraud.
San Francisco has a very high population density. Most jobs are in the northeast. Neither area has a good cost-of-living ratio. People are basically poor who live there.
Prices are dropping in all of those “sellers” markets. Prices are dead in most of those buyers markets. Bring your Eboloa.
Shillow quite rightfully said:
Prices are dropping in all of those “sellers” markets.
It’s true. I’m starting to get two-three emails a week with “priced reduced” notifications in regard to my small watch list here in the “sellers’ market” of Las Vegas.
“price reduced”
Corrected - let’s have more.
There is no “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes here
How about for $150K homes in Greeley?
How many UNC students have you ever met who stayed in Greeley after graduation?
FWIW, Greeley doesn’t suffer as much from the feedlot aroma as it once did. But I’m sure all the young and pretty things who graduate from UNC want to live in downtown Denver.
9) Nashville TN
Rounding out the STD list.
Ancient data from Case-Shiller. Worthless for anything except a historical perspective years after this plays out.
Which of these ten cities have giant, never recovering hoods?
More American Households Doubling Up as Rents Rise
Americans making the national median income should expect to pay nearly 30 percent of their income on rent, an all-time high.
Market Trends / story / By Camille Salama on 10 Oct 2014
An increasing number of American adults are moving in together to share expenses as rental rates continue to outpace income, according to a new Zillow analysis.
As of 2012, more than a third (32 percent) of adults live in doubled-up households, or homes where two or more working-aged adults live together but aren’t married or partners. The share of doubled-up households has steadily risen over the past decade, up from 25.4 percent in 2000 and 30.8 percent in 2010.
This rise in doubled-up households coincides with rental prices that are increasingly unaffordable nationwide. Americans making the national median income ($53,216) should currently expect to spend nearly 30 percent of their monthly income on rent, the highest rate ever. Rather than moving to a smaller home or to a less expensive area, many people are choosing to live with roommates.
Large metro areas with the highest share of adults living with roommates include Los Angeles (47.9 percent), Miami (44.5 percent), New York (42.5 percent) and San Diego (39.7 percent).
Not surprisingly, the markets with the largest increases in doubled-up households are also the most expensive places to rent. In San Francisco, for example, the median rent payment went from 25 percent of income in 2000 to 40 percent in 2012, while doubled-up households increased from 25 percent to 39 percent over the same period.
…
Housing occupancy elasticity is an important factor. I know some neighborhoods with large homes have an 80% vacancy. One couple living in a five bedroom house. Florida may be evev higher with so many second homes….
I think you mean excess empty and the faulted housing inventory J._Fraud. California leads the nation with 4.4 million in excess inventory. With demand at 20 year lows, what do you think the outcome will be?
The outcome will eventually be that you will get tired of espousing your gibberish! HA!
Data J._Fraud data. Stick with the data.
Show me 4.4 million empty houses in CA, HA.
We have about 9.6 million houses in CA. How is it you believe half of them are “excess inventory”?
Stick with the data HA!
Ignore Him….Don’t respond to his gibberish…Its feeds him…
Refute the data. He can’t and neither can you.
He posts data from Shillow showing price drops every day. How is that gibberish? You real estate shills hate data.
He cherry picks data in order to suit is argument. Yet, on the number he posts most frequently (4.4MM empty houses in CA), he can’t point to his source.
He simply asks that people refute his assertion (as opposed to simply posting a link to the data).
And his other trick–to tell everyone that he has posted the link, but we don’t want to look.
Or that we already know his source.
It’s a silly waste of time.
And I love data…which is why I’ve asked him for his source–at least a dozen times. And he won’t give me the source.
Why? Because in a state with 38 million residents, 14 million housing units, and Census data that is showing single-digit vacancy rates, 4.4 million excess housing units is a lie–there is no source for the lie.
False again R._Fraud . I’ve posted the data over and over again. It just doesn’t align with your wallet. That’s why you continue to deliberately misinform and distort the truth.
You have zero credibility here. You know it. I know it.
Ignore Him….Don’t respond to his gibberish…Its feeds him…
The Joshua Tree extension is your friend.
“I’ve posted the data over and over again. It just doesn’t align with your wallet. That’s why you continue to deliberately misinform and distort the truth.”
Then you wouldn’t mind posting it just one more time? I must have missed the other posts.
Thanks.
one more time becomes one more time results in another one more time. you know where to find it. its right here on this blog.
And there you have it…I’ve never seen the data posted–and he refuses to repost.
I’ve found that people with conviction based in verifiable truth are more than happy to share the reasons for their conviction.
Those who are unwilling to share the reasons for their conviction are liars.
No R._Fraud. You’re given the same data over and over again and you keep asking for it some more. Just like links to falling prices all over California, you duck weave and ultimately lie about it.
Let’s just get it out on the table. You and a few other malingerers here speculated, wagered and lost simply because you didn’t have any idea what you’re doing. Further, I’ve been in this business for over two decades and I know guys like you all too well. You may not be directly involved in the scamming but you’re right there providing a thin veil of legitimacy to the passing of envelopes, payoffs and kickbacks. And this is how you get to your $90k water meters. You’re going to get caught. Not today not next week but you will get caught.
yup. It’s the point of this blog to point out lies. Housing analyst = Amy hoax. Troll and misinformer.
On this blog, as in life, the lies come from those invested in the bubble.
Shillow is waiting for the bubble bust of 20% to invest and be “way happy”.
I am “way happy”. We are on the same page Shillow.
The bubble will bust more than 20 percent, but I only need 15 to 20 percent to not really care about that much more. And, as I’ve said before, 15 percent down and their market is toast from a psychology standpoint.
Remember what GWB said, “fool me once, shame on me…”
“15 percent down and their market is toast from a psychology standpoint.”
Would the govt (i.e. the Fed) stand for another 15%+ correction in home prices? They didn’t last time, but maybe this time is different?
Whac:
Phoenix got like a 70% drop last time.
Remind me again where the “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes is from people spending 30-50% of their income on rent, and how they’re saving up down payments?
:crickets:
And then show me a SFR anywhere that can’t be built for $175k or less.
:more crickets:
Show me a family of four anywhere that needs a 3,000 or 4,000 ft2 house, or wants one when they realize that is just a cost, not a profit center.
Personally, I like small houses. I wouldn’t even want 2,000 square feet. Cleaning, maintaining and repairing houses is not my idea of fun.
Show me a family of four anywhere that needs a 3,000 ??
One mans house is another mans boat…Criticizing one over the other seems childish to me…
When it’s not viewed as an investment, excess square footage is just that….. excess.
Remember…. houses are never “investments”. They’re depreciating assets.
“One mans house…”
I speak from experience. When my four kids were teens I owned a 4,000 ft2 Victorian. It even had a tower and a 1500 ft2 carriage house. It was a mistake and unnecessary. A white elephant. A miserable lot of work and expense. We were not happier than in the 1200 ft2 farmhouse, not one little bit, but we were more worn out.
“And then show me a SFR anywhere that can’t be built for $175k or less.”
Here’s one, for instance:
http://www.businessinsider.com/joel-horowitz-sells-lake-tahoe-house-2013-12?op=1
That’s called a mansion, not a SFR.
Next.
Oh, Guillotine, how dare you prove HA wrong….he could build that for $175,000. HA, Ha, ha, ha, ha….
The property taxes alone would be $600,000/year….but HA could get it built for $175,000. Sheesh.
I had some very lucrative work for you in Sacramento.
What’s the problem?
“That’s called a mansion, not a SFR.”
It’s an SFR, not a multi-family. Perhaps you should clarify your criteria?
No. It’s a mansion. Read the article.
“Here’s one…”
Betcha Sacramento would like to gerrymander the state’s borders around that place and tax that fugg’r.
Not surprisingly, so many McMansions were built, that it was inevitable for them to become default apartments.
Do you enjoy surfing just after a great white shark attack has cleared the water of other surfers? Are you one of those people who drives towards the beach when a tsunami warning is issued in order to get a better view? Do you like playing with fire?
If you answered yes to one or more of the above questions, then this is the stock market for you!
New York Markets Open in: 0:58:55
Futures: S&P 500 +0.3% DOW +0.2% NASDAQ 0.0%
Opinion: This is the most dangerous stock market since 2008
Published: Oct 13, 2014 5:01 a.m. ET
Volatile October will be cruel for bulls
By Michael Sincere
Columnist
Bloomberg
Volatility has returned to the market. To be specific, the market has rallied, sold off, rallied, and sold off, all in one week. This is ideal for day traders but unnerving for individual investors. It is also a big red warning sign.
To refresh your memory, last week every rally failed, so the market ended the week on its lows. Even the October 8th rally of 274 points reversed direction the next day. It was a monster rally based on the FOMC minutes, which revealed member’s concern for global growth. Got that? The market rallied on bad news. In the mixed-up world of Wall Street, that meant interest rates would remain low. Unfortunately for the bulls, the next day the market fell by 334 points. That’s volatility!
In nontechnical terms, the October 8th manic rally was a head fake. It might have cheered amateur investors, but in reality, this has become one of the most dangerous markets since 2008.
…
NEED TO KNOW: Something uncomfortable this way comes
Stocks teeter on a key trend line as earnings pile up
Published: Oct 13, 2014 8:18 a.m. ET
Criticial intelligence before the U.S. market opens
Warner Bros/Everett
By Shawn Langlois
Markets reporter
While the bond guys are super-sizing their weekends with a game of Columbus Day golf, the rest of us are left here to suffer through what looks to be a bloody start to the trading week. If the readers of the chart tea leaves are on point with their latest red flag, today’s breaching of the 200-day moving average could have some dire consequences (more on that below).
At the very least, the bull is taking a pause to collect his thoughts. It may not be the crash some are climbing into their panic rooms over, but something uncomfortable is happening here. There’s a sense that if things start going sideways — more sideways — there’s no telling where the bottom will be.
So what’s an investor to do? Seek shelter in gold, hazmat suits and face masks, apparently. That power trio is faring just fine while damage is deepening just about everywhere else.
…
Stock markets volatile again as economic fears grow - business live
LIVE updated 27m ago
Graeme Wearden and Nick Fletcher
Monday 13 October 2014 08.13 EDT
* Rolling business and financial news, as European and Asian markets continue to be pummelled
* Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on October 10, 2014 in New York City.
Photograph: Spencer Platt/Getty Images
27m ago 08:13
Lunchtime summary
Here’s a summary of what’s happened so far:
* UK income tax revenues are likely to come in lower than expected, public finances watchdog the Office for Budget Responsibility has warned
* Stock markets continue to be volatile but have edged higher after earlier falls
* France’s Jean Tirole has won the Nobel prize for economics (technically The 2014 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel). Follow our separate live blog
* Bank of England governor Mark Carney says eurozone weakness will not dictate UK monetary policy
* Most European banks are likely to pass the ECB’s assessments, says Fitch
And here’s the latest market update:
1h ago 07:41
In a note entitled Deutschlanding, Credit Suisse analysts say the recent poor data from Germany shows how imbalanced its economy is, with its bias towards exports:
Dubai Stocks Crash
Myles Udland
Oct. 12, 2014, 11:06 AM
Stocks in Dubai crashed 6.5% on Sunday.
This was the biggest drop in four months and brings the Dubai Financial Market General Index to its lowest level since July 20, according to Bloomberg.
Dubai, which like many Middle East exchanges is open from Sunday to Thursday, led a broad sell-off in Middle East stocks, as markets in Israel, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia also sold off on Sunday.
Hisham Khairy, the Dubai-based head of institutional trade at Mena Corp. Financial Services, told Bloomberg that, “Global markets are all selling off and it’s that weakness we’re tracking. There’s still more blood to come.”
…
Stock market affected by Ebola fears
Mark Teed: Market being driven by people’s emotions
By Matt Caron
Published: October 10, 2014, 11:12 pm
Updated: October 10, 2014, 11:57 pm
CHICOPEE, Mass. (WWLP) – A turbulent week in the stock market: on Wednesday, the Dow posted its best day of the year, but on Thursday, the Dow had its worst day of the year.
Mark Teed of Raymond James Financial told 22News, right now, the market is being driven by people’s emotions. A drop in oil prices is good news for consumers, but it may signal that the world economy is slowing down.
Teed also says the market just started Friday to react to people’s Ebola fears. He says if people become more reluctant to travel, go out to eat, and stay at a hotel, it won’t be good for business.
“I don’t think there’s been much effect until today,” said Teed. “Today was the first day I noticed an effect. At 3:40 a news report came from Nevada that potentially somebody on a plane had Ebola-like symptoms and the market went from down 50 to down 115 in about 10 minutes.”
…
I’m wondering when the commercial airline industry is going to take bold steps to help contain Ebola?
Friday night I got on a Southwest Airlines plane and passed up row 3 because the floor where I would put my backpack had crumbs all over it. A sure sign that makes you skeptical about the thoroughness of their sanitation between flights.
When you touch an armrest, seatback tray, seat, you can be touching Ebola virus germs.
In 2002 when I was flying I was nervously looking at people with Arabic features getting on the plane. Now in 2014 I have to worry about Ebola.
I will have to take matters in my own hands and bring in tiny packs of sanitizing wipes. They will go through TSA checkpoints with no problem I’m sure. It’s a confidence boost because you cannot trust the cleaning crew.
It’s a confidence boost because you cannot trust the cleaning crew.
You mean we can’t trust the invisible hand of the market to keep the airplanes safe? Say it ain’t so, Joe!
I don’t fly often, but every time I’m on an airliner that is barreling down a runway as it’s taking off I wonder what corners got cut on that jet’s maintenance.
What ever gave you the idea that planes get sanitized between flights?
+1. I don’t dare look into the pockets any more.
I like the new Alaska Air planes. Instead of pockets, they have nets that hold larger items like books, mags. Any of the small nastiness that people would throw in there would fall out. Dare I say that most Americans’ homes are more like an episode of hoarders than not.
Stay away from anyone coming in from European hubs for 2 - 21 days. I ain’t flyin’ until they know for sure that bug can’t be transmitted by vapor.
I ain’t flyin’ until they know for sure that bug can’t be transmitted by vapor.’
What they know about it today could change. The more people get sick the more chances ebola has to mutate into something a little different.
You need bleach to kill viruses.
Bulletin Dow industrials down more than 160 points in final half-hour of session
Not to worry…’tis a mere flesh wound.
Market Snapshot
U.S. stocks end Monday sharply lower on late selloff
Published: Oct 13, 2014 4:25 p.m. ET
CSX jumps on M&A talks
AFP/Getty Images
Investors await a busy week of earnings, starting with J.P. Morgan Chase on Tuesday.
By Anora Mahmudova
Reporter
Barbara Kollmeyer
Markets reporter
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The U.S. stock market ended Monday’s volatile session sharply lower as selling intensified at the last hour.
Volatile trading came on the heels of last week’s deep losses that had been triggered by global economic growth concerns.
Monday’s trading marked the fifth consecutive day of 1% moves for the S&P 500 and triple-digit moves for the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Key technical levels were in focus, especially as there was no data on the economic calendar and bond markets were closed for Columbus Day holiday.
The S&P 500 (SPX, -1.65%) closed down 31.39 points, or 1.6%, to 1,874.74. The benchmark index has pulled back more than 6% from its peak reached on Sept. 18.
All of the main benchmarks are trading below their 200-day moving averages. Falling below the 200-day moving average level, and in the case of the S&P 500, below the 1,900 level, is considered significant as many analysts see the breach as a sign of further declines. Vote here: Does this stock slump have further to go?
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -1.35%) dropped 223 points, or 1.3%, to 16,321.07. The blue-chip index turned negative for the year on Friday and is now down 1.5% year-to-date.
The Nasdaq Composite (COMP, -1.46%) dropped 62.58 points, or 1.5%, to 4,213.66. The Russell 2000 (RUT, -0.38%) gave up solid gains of early morning and closed down 4.3 points, or 0.4%, at 1,049.17.
Karyn Cavanaugh, senior market strategist with Voya Investment Management, is not surprised by increased volatility.
“Normal markets are volatile and the 6% pullback on the S&P 500 seems like a big drop while in the middle of it, but it’s not,” Cavanaugh said.
…
If the oil price plunge is good for stocks, then why are share prices plunging?
I’d think lower oil and other commodities would be better for bonds than for stocks, but then who am I to question market ‘experts’?
Stock-market bulls are celebrating oil price plunge
Published: Oct 13, 2014 1:32 p.m. ET
Cheaper gas is $10 billion consumer dividend
Bloomberg News/Landov
Your wallet will say “thank you.”
By William Watts
Reporter
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Oil prices are collapsing. And with U.S. equities standing at a crossroads after last week’s volatile selloff, stock-market bulls think the bear market in crude is mostly good news, potentially setting the table for a strong stock rally into year-end.
Where these tumultuous markets wind up isn’t 100% clear. What’s indisputable, however, is that oil markets are tanking.
Brent crude (LCOX4, -2.27%) the global oil benchmark, has dropped below $90 a barrel, changing hands at its lowest level since 2010. West Texas Intermediate (CLX4, -1.00%) the U.S. benchmark is trading below $85 a barrel, its lowest level since late 2012. Brent has dropped more than 20% from its June peak, meeting the widely-used definition (in terms of percentage fall) of a bear market.
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Inflation, Deflation, and Our Very Confident Bet in T-Bonds
By: Rick Ackerman, Rick’s Picks
– Posted Monday, 13 October 2014
I’ve been touting the ongoing bull market in T-Bonds as one of the best investment opportunities of our lifetime – a no-brainer, as far, as I can recommend. About the only way this bet can lose is if inflation returns with a vengeance. This has never been much of a worry for me, since, on the inspiration of C.V. Myers’ prescient 1976 book, I’ve been writing about the threat of deflation for more than 20 years. As Myers noted, every penny of very debt must eventually be paid – if not by the borrower, then by the lender. So far, lenders have hung tough on their terms, and although a recklessly expansive monetary policy has cut mortgage debtors in particular some slack, there is no reason to think private lenders will let homeowners skip free when the second stage of the housing collapse that began in 2007 begins anew. Deflation-wise, this is where the rubber will meet the road, drawing irresistible power from the inevitable implosion of the quadrillion dollar Ponzi scheme popularly known as “derivatives.”
…
Investing
What I Suspect and Fear for the Stock Markets
Oct 13, 2014 8:54 AM EDT
By Barry Ritholtz
Here we are, 10-plus months into the year, and we have nothing to show for it.
At least, that is the case if we measure our progress by the gains (or losses) of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The index is now unchanged for the year after last week’s losses. The previously one-direction market has suddenly recalled what volatility looks like, having for the most part forgotten.
Yes, stocks go up AND down.
At the beginning of the fourth quarter, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was up about 7 percent for the year; those gains have now been cut by more than half. The Russell 2000 small-cap index was already down almost 5 percent, and the past few weeks have added to the red. The Nasdaq 100 is still positive on the year, but has given back some of its gains.
I can’t tell you what will happen in the coming weeks or months, nor can I tell you what to do, not knowing your time horizon, risk tolerance and client base. I can, however, bring to your attention some interesting data points you may not have been aware of:
• Since 1928, markets have averaged about three 5 percent corrections each calendar year;
• U.S. stock markets haven’t experienced a 10 percent correction since October 2011;
• Big-cap indexes (S&P 500 and the Dow) are within 5 percent of their all-time highs;
• Small-cap stocks have fallen below their 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2012;
• Half of Nasdaq stocks are down 20 percent from their one-year highs, meaning they are already in a bear market;
• S&P 500 earnings estimates are fully valued: Trailing 12-month price-earnings ratios are a pricey 18.6; forward P/E is an average of 15.85 (according to Birinyi Associates);
• The S&P 500 has fallen to just about its 200-day moving average;
• The yield on the 10-year Treasury bond is now 2.28 percent, a decline of more than 30 basis points in the past month.
Then there is the concern about October as the worst month of the year for the stock market. The month has a bad reputation, likely due to a few outlying events that occurred in the past: The 1987 crash was less than 30 years ago, and even those traders who weren’t yet born are familiar with the details of that particular episode. (I always recommend Tim Metz’s “Black Monday” for anyone who wants to understand what happened).
The 1929 crash (Oct. 29, “Black Tuesday”) also occurred in this month. The Great Depression — the worst economic crisis in U.S. history — followed.
Is it any wonder traders can be superstitious about October?
…
Is there enough fear in this market?
Published: Oct 13, 2014 12:41 p.m. ET
By Avi Gilburt
For years, the market has trained investors, in a Pavlovian manner, that any 5% dip should be bought, with a focus on higher levels. While I do believe we will be heading toward higher levels into 2015 and making new all-time highs, I would allow the market to prove it has turned back higher before buying any dips just yet. There is significant risk right now that we could be heading down to the low 1800s, and quite quickly; maybe even as a Halloween “trick or treat,” depending upon which way you are positioned.
When I review most of what people are saying on television, as well as what I hear from traders and analysts, there is not a lot of true fear at this time, but rather just expectations of when the next rally will begin. Yes, there are many who expect the market to head lower, and, after not seeing a correction in over two years, it is a reasonable expectation. But the manner in which it drops could provide the type of fear needed to set up the next long-term rally in the market. Again, too many are preparing to buy this correction, and I believe the market will have to dispel them of this notion. They have to begin to question whether the bull market has ended, so it makes me think we will likely see a very strong drop in this correction, with shallow retracements.
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Ebola Troops: Families Fear for Safety
Desperate to know how military can keep loved ones safe from epidemic
by Anabel Grossman | Daily Mail | October 13, 2014
At a military base in Kentucky, soldiers are seen donning protective suits, learning how to correctly fit masks and carefully passing through decontamination stations.
The troops are just some of the 150 soldiers receiving intense safety training at Fort Campbell ahead of their deployment to Liberia, as part of the global fight against the spread of Ebola.
Soldiers from the 101st Airborne Division took part in a course with instructors from the US Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases.
It is thought that with the right training and precautions, the risk of infection for soldiers earmarked for the battle against the deadly virus is low.
But the soldiers’ families are still desperate to know how the military can keep their loved ones safe from the epidemic – a new addition to the Army’s long list of threats.
——————————————————————————–
Second Case of Ebola Diagnosed In Dallas
Virus contracted even though nurse wore full protective gear
by Infowars.com | October 12, 2014
Early Sunday, Texas health officials announced that one of the nurses who tended the Ebola patient at the Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital in Dallas had fallen ill and tested positive in a preliminary test for the fast-killing disease.
“Confirmatory testing will be conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta,” a news release from the Texas Department of State Health Services states.
From USA Today:
The care-giver reported having a fever Friday night and was hospitalized, isolated and referred for testing within 90 minutes, Clay Jenkins, Dallas County’s chief executive and its Homeland Security director, said at a news conference.
“While this is obviously bad news, it is not news that should bring about panic,” Jenkins said. “We knew it was a possibility that a second person would contract the virus. We had a contingency plan in place.”
“Clearly there was a breach in protocol,” Frieden said this morning in an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation. “We have the ability to prevent the spread of Ebola by caring safely for patients … We’ll conduct a full investigation of what happens before health workers go in, what happens when they’re there, and what happens in the taking out, taking off their protective equipment because infections only occur when there’s a breach in protocol.”
The diagnosis comes merely four days after the death of Ebola victim Thomas Eric Duncan, who was the first person diagnosed with the disease within the United States.
Duncan was admitted to hospital on September 30, complaining of a 103-degree fever, headache and abdominal pain. He died on October 8.
Update (1:00PM CT): A team of epidemiologists and health investigators are questioning people within a four-block radius of the home of the Dallas healthcare worker who tested positive for Ebola Sunday.
At least one of the nurse’s “close contacts” has been placed in isolation.
Additionally, a dog that was inside the woman’s apartment is being monitored, though it currently shows no symptoms of the Ebola virus.
“Dallas Mayor Mike Rawling said the hazardous materials unit of the Dallas Fire Department has cleaned up and decontaminated the shared areas of her apartment complex,” reports the Daily Mail.
“Hazardous materials units have also cleaned out the nurse’s car.”
I thought dogs couldn’t catch Ebola. Dang it, now I gotta change my Halloween costume again.
People on Reddit are posting pictures from neighbors of this nurse showing all the reporters camped outside her house.
Originally published October 7, 2014 at 6:14 PM
Page modified October 8, 2014 at 4:25 PM
Ebola’s victims may include dog in Spain
Ebola’s victims may include a dog named Excalibur. Officials in Madrid got a court order to euthanize the pet of a Spanish nursing assistant with Ebola because of the chance the animal might spread the disease.
By MARILYNN MARCHIONE
AP Chief Medical Writer
Animal Rights activists stand with their dogs outside a block of apartments where a Spanish nurse who tested positive for the Ebola virus lives on Tuesday in Alcorcon, near Madrid, Spain. Her dog is thought to be at risk of being put down as health officials try to keep the virus from spreading.
PABLO BLAZQUEZ DOMINGUEZ / GETTY IMAGES
Animal Rights activists stand with their dogs outside a block of apartments where a Spanish nurse who tested positive for the Ebola virus lives on Tuesday in Alcorcon, near Madrid, Spain. Her dog is thought to be at risk of being put down as health officials try to keep the virus from spreading.
Ebola’s victims may include a dog named Excalibur. Officials in Madrid got a court order to euthanize the pet of a Spanish nursing assistant with Ebola because of the chance the animal might spread the disease.
At least one major study suggests that dogs can be infected with the deadly virus without having symptoms. But whether or how likely they are to spread it to people is less clear.
Lab experiments on other animals suggest their urine, saliva or stool might contain the virus. That means that in theory, people might catch it through an infected dog licking or biting them, or from grooming.
“Clearly we want to look at all possibilities. We have not identified this as a means of transmission,” said Dr. Thomas Frieden, director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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THIS IS NUTS! The CDC has not identified dogs as a means of transmission, but they are going to kill the dog anyway (without any testing, apparently), but they will not impose travel restrictions. I really think that my head will explode anytime now.
It’s a canine sacrifice in the name of political Kabuki to appease the ignorami.
I got into some of the ebola hoax theories for a bit yesterday, and I have to admit, they’ve got a bit of a point about unprotected “reporters” standing five feet from a supposed victim, and some of this stuff on the “reports” does look a bit staged over in Liberia, especially the nude African kid who walked on-camera and then carefully fell to the ground, not to mention the father walking away with a wad of cash in his hand.
Start adding things up and a lot of this doesn’t pass the smell test. Like the insane CDC response. Got me to thinking that there’s some hoax aspect to this, because if it were really real, the flights from the affected areas would be shut down.
But I guess it’s a lot more fun to accuse some overworked nurse of not following “protocol”.
Wait, wait, WHO is NOT following PROTOCOL? The CDC, that’s who, if the “pandemic” is for real. Following protocol would mean cancelling flights, no?
“Start adding things up and a lot of this doesn’t pass the smell test. Like the insane CDC response.”
“REVISED LIST OF QUARANTINABLE COMMUNICABLE DISEASES”
For Immediate Release
July 31, 2014
Executive Order — Revised List of Quarantinable Communicable Diseases
EXECUTIVE ORDER
- - - - - - -
REVISED LIST OF QUARANTINABLE COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including section 264(b) of title 42, United States Code, it is hereby ordered as follows:
Section 1. Amendment to Executive Order 13295. Based upon the recommendation of the Secretary of Health and Human Services, in consultation with the Acting Surgeon General, and for the purposes set forth in section 1 of Executive Order 13295 of April 4, 2003, as amended by Executive Order 13375 of April 1, 2005, section 1 of Executive Order 13295 shall be further amended by replacing subsection (b) with the following:
“(b) Severe acute respiratory syndromes, which are diseases that are associated with fever and signs and symptoms of pneumonia or other respiratory illness, are capable of being transmitted from person to person, and that either are causing, or have the potential to cause, a pandemic, or, upon infection, are highly likely to cause mortality or serious morbidity if not properly controlled. This subsection does not apply to influenza.”
Sec. 2. General Provisions. (a) Nothing in this order shall be construed to impair or otherwise affect:
(i) the authority granted by law to an executive department, agency, or the head thereof; or
(ii) the functions of the Director of the Office of Management and Budget relating to budgetary, administrative, or legislative proposals.
(b) This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.
BARACK OBAMA
http://www.whitehouse.gov/…ecutive-order-revised-list-quarantinable-communicable-diseases - 57k -
Like I stated last week, if this outbreak was in Sweden, the flights in and out of there would already be cancelled. Since these countries are in Africa, then to stop the constant immigration would be racist.
A cameraman recently got Ebola. But yeah, the breach of protocol occurred when the center decided not to control the disease.
Still Ebola free in Region VIII
“Still Ebola free in Region VIII”
The FEMA Quarantine Controller will tell you if you are Ebola free or not.
“Clearly there was a breach in protocol,” Frieden said this morning in an interview with CBS’ Face the Nation.’
uh huh you sure about that ?
There is a reason they are calling this the Zombie plague.
Eight ways the protocol for dealing with Ebola patients at Texas Health Presbyterian Hospital is being changed today, with comments on the implications.
Desperate to know how military can keep loved ones safe from epidemic
Simple - don’t let those deployed return home - ever.
UK Telegraph: British doctors and soldiers will not be guaranteed return to UK if they contract Ebola
“concerns were raised last night after it emerged that NHS workers and British soldiers may have to be treated in new centres in Sierra Leone if they contracted the virus. There were concerns that the care would not be at the standard they would receive in the UK. One British worker said: “Infectious disease doctors volunteering say it feels like being asked ‘to go over the top’.””
It would be easier to have travel restrictions.
People go to school to get an education, no?
Some people get their education by studying hard, others explore other means …
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/30-bounced-check-school-lunches-110034205.html
‘The mysterious workings of a Pentagon office that oversees clandestine operations are unraveling in federal court, where a criminal investigation has exposed a secret weapons program entwined with allegations of a sweetheart contract, fake badges and trails of destroyed evidence.’
‘Capping an investigation that began almost two years ago, separate trials are scheduled this month in U.S. District Court in Alexandria, Va., for a civilian Navy intelligence official and a hot-rod auto mechanic from California who prosecutors allege conspired to manufacture an untraceable batch of automatic-rifle silencers.’
‘The exact purpose of the silencers remains hazy, but court filings and pretrial testimony suggest they were part of a top-secret operation that would help arm guerrillas or commandos overseas. A former senior Navy official familiar with the investigation described directorate officials as “wanna-be spook-cops.” Speaking on the condition of anonymity because the case is still unfolding, he added, “I know it sounds goofy, but it was like they were building their own mini law enforcement and intelligence agency.”
The Problem-An out of control federal government with limitless power to tax.
Best post yesterday following Ben’s summary on what we have been through and continue to see;
Comment by (Still) Waiting For the Fall
2014-10-12 12:17:38
The Guy in the Glass
by Dale Wimbrow, (c) 1934
I guess the cow did jump over the moon. This makes me even more comfortable to be outspoken and vocal for voluntaryism:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2014/10/12/fbi_director_james_comey_americans_should_be_deeply_skeptical_of_government_power.html
You know, I am not a fan of spy agencies and I’m deeply mistrustful of the Feds. However, there’s something about this guy that intrigues me, because he seems to be less of a creep than most in this line of work and I sort of get that he really does care about the country. I have felt for a while that there is a serious tug of war going on between the FBI, CIA and NSA.
I hope he really is what he seems to me to be. The Ashcroft thing is most enlightening.
Sometimes all that stands between a populace and total enslavement is one person who is willing to put his nuts up on the table and risk getting them chopped off.
I was a federal employee for 11 years in defense. Federal employees are like you snd I. They are human. They laugh. They suffer. They have kids to worry about. The think about what kind of future they want for their kids. I am sure it is not a future of slavery. Even among most “agency” employees. Some of course are misguided and think we want less freedom. Some repeat the same tjomgs over and over snd expect different results (U.S. foreign policy).
At this moment Americans must take a step back and evaluate honestly the U.S. policy of meddling in other nations.
Who are you, and what have you done with Selfish Hoarder?
Never did say I am against federal employees. If we have to have a government, there will be federal employees. I am an anarchist and prefer anarchy but as long as we don’t have that, then there will be libertarian federal employees, and I knew some of them.
Many school teachers are paid by the government and they are libertarians. If the monopoly on your type of work is federal, you go federal.
What part of the handle “Selfish Hoarder” is not understood?
Everyone must sign in with Controller upon arrival.
“sign in with Controller”
the Controllers - Sho ‘Nuff A Blessin’
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k7bpTedb0iA
At this point the S&P 500 index is 2.4% above what it was December 31, 2013.
Two more years of this and there will be no rationale for a stock market crash.
What about all those disappointed speculators who thought we were entering an unprecedented period of 20%+ gains forever? Haven’t they moved from the “buy” to the “sell” side of the market by now, and what effect will that have on prices?
And where are they going with their money? The bond market? Cash?
The bond market is riskier than equities, IMHO.
Yes, highly rated corporate and government bonds. Especially when it comes to light how much they have outperformed other asset classes this year.
How much lower do you think interest rates can go?
Personally, I think people who are afraid of the stock market are afraid of the same things as those who are afraid of the bond market…rising yields (which will reduce the value of all financial assets).
If yields rise, equities fall in value, as do bonds.
I think those who sell equities are going to move right to very short term instruments (money markets, short term bonds, and cash).
I could see 2.5% yields on the 30-year T-bond before this is over. Note that the 30-year T-bond yield is down from 3.92% on January 2, 2014 to 3.03% as of today. And this is during a period of strong U.S. economic recovery. They dropped down to 2.53% in December 2008.
Do you expect yields to go up or down during the next U.S. slowdown? I’m betting on down, but you are free to bet otherwise.
By the way, there is very little information I can find in the MSM about how 30-year Treasurys have outperformed this year. In a minute I will post an example of the change in the value of a $1000 30-year Treasury bought on January 2, 2014 through today. I’m pretty sure you would have done a lot better in long-term Treasurys so far this year than in U.S. stocks, but stay tuned — analytical evidence is forthcoming!
Current Value of and Annualized Return on a
$1000 30-year Treasury purchased on January 2, 2014
Coupon Rate 3.92%
1/2/2014 $1,000 Principle Value
7/1/2014 $19.60 Semiannual Coupon Payment
10/13/2014 3.03% Current 30-year Treasury yield
10/13/2014 $1,196.57 Value of investment at new yield
10/13/2014 19.7% Investment gain since 1/2/2014
25.5% Annualized rate of return
Note: I assumed a 360 day year for adjusting the present value from 7/1/2014 to 10/13/2014 and for extrapolating the annualized rate of return from the year-to-date investment gain.
Can you name another investment class that has returned 19.7% so far this year?
“I think those who sell equities are going to move right to very short term instruments (money markets, short term bonds, and cash).”
This may eventually play out, but first we have to get through the China housing bubble collapse.
Do others notice the irony in Gross leaving Pimco during one of the best years for long-term Treasurys on record?
Why buy stocks that only return the rate of inflation? You’d be better off investing in a local business.
Right, and work 14 hour days. No thanks.
No, not buy one. Invest in one.
And the S&P 500 index closed today 1.40% above the adjusted closing December 31, 2013:
(1- 1848.36/1874.74) * 100 = 1.4
Gld December 31 close: 116.12. Today’s close: 118.52…
(1-116.12/118.52) * 100 = 2.0
YTD, the GLD ETF is higher than the S&P 500 index.
1874 is only 7.2% from the all time high three weeks ago. Technically no correction yet.
I still say 10% for a drop is not a correction. Try 30%. The 5 and a half years long bull market needs a healthy correction. Not a mild drop. But an average gain of under 5% this year and the next two years is a good substitute for a needed correction.
So, House Majority Leader Eric Cantor was voted out for his Wall Street connections. But the Republicans replaced him with his deputy, Kevin McCarthy (top of the second column). If you look at his donation profile, his top donors far and away are again the FIRE sector.
wat.
crony capitalism wins!
Broncos 31 Jets 17
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20141013_114009_014-TsYhUcgd.jpg
This is what victory tastes like
Did you already eat one pepperoncini or are they cutting costs?
Phew. After that Seattle loss I was wondering if the kids were going without food and rioting in Region VIII. Looks like things are back on track. On standby for martial law here in Region X after the Invasion of Romo.
They needed to blitz Romo more…He will give it up if you blitz him…
Edward Snowden quoted recently:
“When you say, ‘I have nothing to hide,’ you’re saying, ‘I don’t care about this right.’ You’re saying, ‘I don’t have this right, because I’ve got to the point where I have to justify it.’ The way rights work is, the government has to justify its intrusion into your rights.”
http://techcrunch.com/2014/10/11/edward-snowden-new-yorker-festival/?cps=gravity
What a coincidence! I just saw that on a social network site. Oops! Snowden recommends ditching that site!
Facebook is for chicks, Bill. Chicks and their white knights and beta orbiters.
Remember the original purpose of FB was to rate chicks on a T&A scale.
Facebook is for defriending your mom. Everyone’s doing it.
My daughter did it.
Entire abandoned CT town up for auction, starting bid $800,000 for 62 acres, with buildings
What would an investor want with a ghost town? (Chinese readers, feel free to opine…)
It looks like a great place for the CDC and FEMA to quarantine Ebola patients.
I might concede a 20% further market correction at this stage
with a 7% real estate correction.
Interesting. 6 months ago you were yammering how the rising price floor would never fall.
But there is no greater fool but you on this blog
Stick to the topic fraudster.
53%
Tune into the HBB tomorrow for review of double digit price declines in CA and captivating discussion of housing. Maybe uncover more breach of ethics by housing insiders.
See you bright and early!
Unfortunately, my life has changed such that I have no time for reading and commenting on this blog in the morning anymore. It feels weird; like I’m missing something very important.
Sorry about that. Hope the change is somehow for the better.
They pay me to work. Good or bad?
Better than not getting paid for not working. But this is a very sucky time in labor market history to be a worker bee, as employers realize there are not many good alternatives, thanks to an extreme lack of labor market liquidity. (I can feel your pain!)
Robert Powell’s Retirement Portfolio
Housing is biggest expense for retirees
Published: Sept 30, 2014 10:46 a.m. ET
Housing is No. 1, health-care costs is No. 2
By Robert Powell
Retirement columnist
It’s become fashionable these days for advisers to warn retirees and pre-retirees to set aside enough money to pay for health care in their golden years.
Folks might be better served if they were told to make sure they first have enough income and assets to pay for housing and home-related expenses after age 65.
That’s because those expenses — mortgages, property taxes, insurance, utilities, home maintenance, and the like — comprise the largest spending category for older Americans, according to a new report published by the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI), a private, nonpartisan, nonprofit research institute based in Washington, D.C.
Yes, health-care expenses increase steadily with age, and remain a big cause of concern, but the cost of maintaining a home is typically the biggest expense for older people. EBRI said.
Women typically live longer than men, often have less saved for retirement and interact differently with financial planners, says Eve Kaplan of Kaplan Financial Advisors in Berkeley Heights, N.J.
To be fair, the dollar amount spent on housing and home-related expenses decreases with age. But the share of these costs in household budgets remain stable at between 40% to 45%, depending on age group, EBRI said in a release.
Consider: Households age 60-64 spent on average $18,720 or 43% of total expenses on housing in 2011, adjusted for 2013 dollars; households age 65-74 spent $14,732 or 42%; and households age 75-plus spent $13,111 or 44%. Or put another way: you’ll need roughly $250,000 set aside at age 65 to pay for 20 years of housing expenses.
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13 October 2014, 8.20pm BST
Zombie economics: the notion China is to blame for Australia’s property bubble refuses to die
James Laurenceson does not work for, consult to, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations.
Despite valiant efforts by commentators such as Bernard Keane and Michael Pascoe to slay claims that Chinese buyers are making it harder for ordinary Australians to enter the housing market, the notion refuses to die. It is the “zombie idea” afflicting the Australia-China economic relationship.
And there is a danger the zombies will multiply. Last week the Australian Financial Review reported that China recently eased restrictions on outbound investment. The implication being “a fresh wave of capital [is] expected to make its way into the Australian property market”.
The Sydney Morning Herald continued with the same theme listing several recent examples of Chinese-funded projects with values reaching into the billions.
But all these reports lack one critical factor: context.
…
Here comes Chinese subprime mortgage lending.
China to scrap mortgage fees for some home loans: state media
BEIJING Mon Oct 13, 2014 7:22am EDT
(Reuters) - China will scrap some charges for homebuyers who borrow from a government housing fund, state media said on Monday, as Beijing makes another move to boost the weak property market by reducing costs.
The government will exempt notarial, guarantee and mortgage insurance fees as well as valuation charges for new and existing homes that are financed by the government housing provident fund, the state owned Xinhua news agency said on its official Weibo microblog.
The housing provident fund is a government-designed saving plan that allows Chinese workers and their employers to pay a part of their monthly wages into the fund to finance future home purchases.
Mortgages that are financed by the fund usually carry lower interest rates than bank loans.
Monday’s move came after the government cut mortgage rates and downpayment levels last month for some homebuyers, taking one of its biggest steps this year to boost an economy increasingly threatened by a sagging housing market.
China’s housing market has softened this year, with sales slowing and banks becoming more cautious about lending to developers and investors.
The housing sector affects around 40 other industries in China and accounts for around 15 percent of the economy. Its softening is of rising concern to companies and policymakers as a drag on growth.
…
China closing in on affordable housing target
(Xinhua) Updated: 2014-10-14 09:17
BEIJING — China has almost met its annual targets for construction of affordable houses, latest data has showed.
By the end of September, the country had started construction on 7.2 million affordable housing units, slightly above the seven million target set for the whole year, while 4.7 million had been basically completed, accounting for 98 percent of the annual target, according to a statement from the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development.
Altogether, 1.07 trillion yuan ($174 billion) has been invested in the program this year, the ministry said.
Approved in 1999, the program is designed to provide cheaper housing to low-income families who have been edged out by runaway real estate prices.
The government work report released earlier this year set the target of beginning construction of more than seven million houses, 4.7 million of them for people living in shanty shelters.
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The more I think about it, the more convinced I become that trees really do grow to the sky. Don’t they?
Chinese continue to snap up properties in US
By Amy He (China Daily) Updated: 2014-10-14 10:15
Chinese investment in US real estate will grow “dramatically” in the coming years as Chinese investors continue to bring capital to a more stable property market, according to commercial real estate company CBRE Group.
“By New York standards, by US standards, these are huge, wealthy, capitalized companies, and they’re all looking for a foothold in the US. So we think with the continued regulatory cooling off of the markets in China, we’re going to see more and more of that capital come into the US,” William Shanahan, vice-chairman of investment properties at CBRE, told China Daily.
Los Angeles-based CBRE is one of the largest commercial real estate service companies in the world, with more than 300 offices globally. The company had $223.2 billion in transactions in 2013, according to its website.
Shanahan said the announcement last week that Chinese insurance company Anbang Insurance Group was acquiring New York’s Waldorf Astoria hotel was the latest in what commentators are calling a string of “trophy” purchases by Chinese investors.
But he said it’s not the most accurate description of Chinese investors’ actions.
“That is the common domestic thought, that they’re all trophy seekers. That’s probably not a good moniker. I think what they’re looking for is property that will hold value in up or down markets, properties that will hold their value over time,” Shanahan said.
“Those tend to be trophy properties. They tend to be properties like (the General Motors building), it tends to be a One Chase Manhattan Plaza or the Waldorf. That property will always be one of the most valuable hotels in New York, if not the most valuable.”
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Bloomberg News
U.S. Futures Gain With Treasuries After Share Retreat
By Nick Gentle and Jonathan Burgos
October 14, 2014
U.S. Crude Stockpiles
Employees work on a storage tank inside the Chevron Corp. Richmond Refinery in Richmond, California. U.S. crude stockpiles probably expanded by 2.5 million barrels last week to 364.2 million, according to a Bloomberg News survey. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
U.S. equity-index futures rose, signaling the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may rebound from its worst three-day drop since 2011, while Treasuries climbed. European index futures fell with Japanese stocks as oil slumped.
Contracts on the S&P 500 (SPX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced at least 0.3 percent by 7:14 a.m. in London, while futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 index slipped 0.5 percent. Japan’s Topix index slid 2.3 percent and 30-year Treasury yields dropped below 3 percent for the first time since May last year as those markets resumed after holidays yesterday. South Korea’s won advanced 0.3 percent. Oil in New York and London extended declines. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index erased gains after police cleared a road through the city’s main protest zone.
About $744 billion was erased from U.S. equities since Oct. 8 amid concern that a global slowdown will counteract the benefits of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates near zero for longer. Investors are awaiting Chinese lending and inflation data as banks including Everbright Securities Co. said over-invoicing may have contributed to a surge in exports. Germany’s ZEW sentiment survey is due with U.K. and French price data.
“There are people probably buying into a falling U.S. market,” Stuart Beavis, head of institutional equity derivatives at Vantage Capital Markets in Hong Kong, said by phone. “I’m not totally convinced U.S. equities have corrected enough. People are still worried about global growth. While China’s exports numbers yesterday were really good, all of sudden people are doubting the numbers again.”
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Energy
U.S. Oil Producers May Drill Themselves Into Oblivion
By Matthew Philips October 13, 2014
An oil drilling rig on July 30, 2013, near Watford City, N.D.
Photograph by Andrew Burton/Getty Images
Remember the fall of 2008? As the world spun out of control and the price of everything crashed, a barrel of oil lost 70 percent of its value over about five months. Of course, prices never should’ve been as high as $146 that summer, but they shouldn’t have crashed to $40 by the end of that year either.
As the oil market has recovered, there have since been three major corrections, when prices have fallen at least 15 percent over a few months. We’re now in the midst of a fourth, with oil prices down more than 20 percent since peaking in late June at around $115 a barrel. They’re now hovering in the mid-$80 range and could certainly go lower. That’s good news for U.S. consumers, who are finally starting to reap the rewards of the shale boom through low gasoline prices. But it could spell serious trouble for a lot of oil producers, many of whom are laden with debt and exaggerating their oil reserves.
In a way, oil companies in the U.S. are perpetuating the crash by continuing to drill and push up U.S. oil production to its fastest pace ever. Rather than pulling back in hopes of slowing the amount of supply on the market to try and boost prices, drillers are instead operating at full tilt and pumping oil as fast as they can. Just look at the number of horizontal rigs in the field:
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