The Housing Bubble

Depreciation and dilapidation are selling points in these parts.

“The brokers at RM Bradley are hoping that the village’s dilapidated condition, the result of years of neglect, will be a selling point”

http://www.boston.com/real-estate/community/2014/10/14/got-you-can-buy-your-very-own-connecticut-village/O2PqWzW3rYMYF5DFX5keBP/story.html?p1=trending_article_page_4

What is rent?

Related article about breedist breeders

“Tech companies are famous for their lavish benefits, like in-office haircuts, dry cleaning and massages. Now some of these companies are setting off a debate about women and work with a new benefit — paying for women on the payroll to freeze their eggs.

Yet by paying for women to delay pregnancy, are employers helping them achieve that balance — or avoiding policies that experts agree would greatly help solve the problem, like paid family leave, child care and flexible work arrangements?”

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/15/upshot/egg-freezing-as-a-work-benefit-some-women-see-darker-message.html

Men have never really wanted to get married. Now women are starting to feel the same way.

They are not necessarily single-income households. They simply are not married.

Still Ebola free in Region VIII

Interesting quote from the article:

“I would still say the risk is relatively low for Colorado because we have two cases in the U.S. among a population of more than 400 million”

400 million? Did the last census overlook 85+ million Free Sh*t Army?

http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_26728139/colorado-ebola-threat-low-but-not-be-ignored

“Linked from Google News, second Dallas health care worker tests positive for Ebola”

Your FEMA Region VI Quarantine Controller has already dispatched Bob’s Pressure Cleaning Services LLC to stop the spread of this disease.

Report: PATIENT #3 SUSPECTED IN DALLAS: Nurse’s Boyfriend Quarantined

by Mac Slavo | SHTFplan.com | October 15, 2014

Various reports now making their way through social networks and alternative media sources claim that Nina Pham’s boyfriend may have been admitted to a Dallas-area hospital. It is not clear whether the individual was showing symptoms of the virus or if he has been quarantined as a precautionary measure. According to NBC DFW, “Texas Health Presbyterian is monitoring the patient based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention protocol.”

Ms. Pham is the first person to contract the virus in the United States after being one of several medical personnel to provide care for the late Thomas Duncan, who arrived in America from West Africa two weeks ago.

According to reports Pham’s boyfriend works for Fort Worth-based eye care firm Alcon. A letter from Alcon CEO Jeff George sent to employees on Monday says that one of the company’s associates was admitted to Texas Health Presbyterian. George specifically notes in the letter that the individual who has been admitted was not showing symptoms of the virus, but there are contradicting reports with some suggesting that the individual admitted to the hospital was showing Ebola-like symptoms.

Letter to Alcon employees:

alcon-1

It is believed that Nina Pham’s parents and boyfriend are employees of Alcon.

A follow up report from Got News indicates that two Alcon sources confirm the legitimacy of the letter and according to NBC the company says it is not worried about further infections:

Alcon officials said they are confident that there is no risk for their associates after a consultation with the Texas Department of Health.

Africa
New Ebola Cases May Soon Reach 10,000 a Week, Officials Predict
By SOMINI SENGUPTA
OCT. 14, 2014

UNITED NATIONS — Schools have shut down, elections have been postponed, mining and logging companies have withdrawn, farmers have abandoned their fields. The Ebola virus ravaging West Africa has renewed the risk of political instability in a region barely recovering from civil war, United Nations officials said Tuesday, hours after the World Health Organization reported that new cases could reach 10,000 a week by December — 10 times the current rate.

The head of the new Ebola Emergency Response Mission, Anthony Banbury, told the Security Council that none of the three most heavily affected countries — Liberia, Sierra Leone and Guinea — is adequately prepared. Only 4,300 treatment beds will be available by Dec. 1, according to current projections, and even those would not have an adequate number of staff members. The acceleration of new cases, if not curbed, could easily overwhelm them.

Mr. Banbury painted a picture of substantial need. Only 50 safe-burial teams are on the ground, he said, but 500 are required. They need protective gear and about a thousand vehicles. So far, Mr. Banbury said, the mission has delivered 69 vehicles.
…

I’m surprised that the healthcare workers were not isolated from the start. We are not doing a very common-sense job of containing this disease, are we?

We’ll have to take a look at demand in Boston.

Any wagers on how far it’s fallen in Boston? 5 year lows? 10? 15?

Not all areas of eastern MA are created equal. Unfortuately for me, my house value is more aligned with the economy and fortunes of Providence, RI than Boston and the People’s Republic of Cambridge. And Providence isn’t doing nearly as well as Boston, even though they are connected by train and Interstate 95. 45 minutes away makes a world of difference.

Clear the decks.

Goldilocks is dead.

Not to worry about any serious long-term downturn in stock prices. The robots who trade shares wouldn’t allow such a thing!

Market Pulse
10-year Treasury yield falls to fresh 16-month low
Published: Oct 15, 2014 8:55 a.m. ET
By Ben Eisen
Reporter

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Treasury prices jumped Wednesday after a trio of weak data on regional manufacturing, producer prices and retail sales. The benchmark 10-year note (10_YEAR, -6.28%) yield, which falls as prices rise, sank 14.5 basis points on the day to 2.063%, a new 16-month low, according to Tradeweb. The yield has fallen over half a percentage point since hitting a recent high on Sept. 18.
…

Financial Times
Global Market Overview
Last updated: October 15, 2014 12:42 pm
Stocks and oil slide on growth fears
Jamie Chisholm, Global Markets Commentator

Wednesday 12:40 BST. Equities, oil and government bond yields are falling as worries about global growth and deflation again roil markets.

The dollar is firmer, which is contributing to a $5 fall for gold to $1,227 an ounce, and base metal prices are mostly lower.

The day had started with some promise – Asian stocks and US index futures rising as some investors placed bets that recent volatility was on the wane.

But after the European session got into gear the risk aversion returned.

The FTSE Eurofirst 300 is off 1.2 per cent – a chunk of which is the result of sharp falls for UK drug stocks after AbbVie said it was reconsidering its takeover of Shire – and S&P 500 futures show the barometer easing 11 points to 1,867, though supported somewhat by well-received earnings from Intel, the chipmaker.

During Tuesday’s session Wall Street’s stock gauge touched its lowest level in nearly five months, having shed 7.3 per cent since hitting an intraday record high less than four weeks ago.

Like other national equity benchmarks the S&P has been battered by a building fear that a fragile eurozone could further weaken already meek global growth, causing investors to question market valuations that to some seem stretched following the multiyear bull run.

Another asset that has taken these growth concerns square on the chin is oil – and it continues to suffer. The black gold is facing wilting demand at a time of surging production and this is causing the price of Brent crude to lose another 88 cents on Wednesday to $84.16 a barrel, near a four-year low.

Industrial metals are also morose, with copper falling 0.6 per cent to $6,760 a tonne.

The falling cost of resources speaks to another theme exercising investors: the prospect of deflationary pressures spreading across the world and further damping economic activity.

Much focus has been on falling price growth in Europe. A closely watched gauge of expected longer-term inflation, the 5-year/5-year forward swap rate, was 2.11 per cent at the start of August and is now at a record low of 1.76 per cent.

But data from China show that the world’s manufacturing engine also is contributing to the trend, with factory-gate prices falling 1.8 per cent in the year to September, the 31st consecutive month of declines.

China’s consumer prices also rose less than expected, encouraging traders to think the authorities have more leeway to ease monetary policy in order to boost weakening growth.

That reasoning helped the region’s stock markets before Europe’s relapse. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.6 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng added 0.4 per cent as police tried to clear pro-democracy protesters off streets. The weaker yen gave additional support to the exporter-sensitive Tokyo market, with the Nikkei 225 gaining 0.9 per cent.

South Korea’s central bank did make such a move, trimming the benchmark interest rate by a quarter point to 2 per cent as it pointed out areas of economic weakness such as sluggish investment in its accompanying statement.

Such concerns about meek economic activity and falling price growth have been boosting highly-rated fixed income assets in recent weeks, and they continue to be in favour, nudging yields lower.

The 10-year Treasury yield is down 5 basis points to 2.15 per cent, its most meagre since June 2013, while equivalent maturity German Bunds are 4bp softer at 0.80 per cent, a new record low.
…

Unless this time is different, housing price declines will follow with a lag ??

Yep…….

I sure hope you paid off as much debt as possible!!!

Funny all the experts said the bond market was going to crack first

Experts, we seem to have so many these days and somehow they are always wrong. Must be something they teach them in school ?

ihno

Wolf Richter, TESTOSTERONE PIT
Long/short equity, special situations, contrarian, debt

Toxic Mix For Fracking: Oil Price Collapse And Junk Bond Insanity
Oct. 15, 2014 8:41 AM ET

It’s now called a “collapse”: The US benchmark light sweet crude plunged 4.6% to settle at $81.84 a barrel on Tuesday, the lowest since June 2012. In London, Brent made a similar journey to $85.04, its lowest level since November 2010. Explanations abound as to why this is suddenly happening, after years of deceptive calm.

Is it some harebrained plot to punish Russia by destroying its economy? Signs of success are everywhere. The ruble is in free-fall, despite the central bank’s efforts to prop it up. Yield on Russia’s 10-year note is nearly 10%. The government’s budget, heavily dependent on oil revenues, is in trouble. And every unit of foreign currency that isn’t nailed down is fleeing the country.

Or is it a plot by Saudi Arabia to squash the US shale oil boom? In November last year, the Saudi Gazette published an editorial on the “successful, wise, and balanced OPEC strategy” that led to “unprecedented” stability of oil prices for the past few years of around $106 a barrel. But couched in words such as “skeptics are demanding,” it uttered the threat to raise OPEC production until the price would drop “below $70 a barrel” to “remove the shale oil from the world oil production map…”

Or is it the combination of surging production in the US and sagging demand around the world, particularly in China and Europe?

Demand for oil would inch up this year at the slowest rate since the terrible year of 2009, the IEA predicted. OPEC might not be willing or able to lower production, it said. Why? Because of the US shale boom. And so, “Further oil price drops would likely be needed for supply to take a hit - or for demand growth to get a lift.”

Whatever the reasons for the market chaos, we already know what it has accomplished in the US: Investors who were long when they sleepwalked into this new era that started in late June have had their heads handed to them. WTI gave up 21% in less than four months. Over the same period, the SPDR Oil & Gas Equipment & Services Fund (NYSEARCA:XES), a basket of the largest oil- and gas-related stocks, plummeted 33%. Shares of smaller oil and gas companies have gotten demolished.
…

Energy Slump Means $1.6 Billion Lost Before First Coupon
By Nabila Ahmed and Matt Robinson
Oct 14, 2014 5:17 PM PT
Photographer: Ty Wright/Bloomberg

Gobbling up $50 billion of high-yielding U.S. junk-bond offerings by energy companies this year may have seemed like a good idea when oil was above $100 a barrel and yields were at record lows.

With prices now falling toward $80, bond buyers have instead been saddled with $1.8 billion of lost market value and growing concern that too much credit has been extended too fast amid America’s shale boom. Prices on $1.6 billion of speculative-grade bonds sold by the upstart exploration firm of former Chesapeake Energy Corp. chief Aubrey McClendon have plunged as much as 19 percent since being issued in July. Another $1.1 billion issued the same month by Paragon Offshore Plc are down as much as 24 percent.

Because the borrowing capacity of oil and gas producers is directly tied to the value of their reserves, the falling commodity prices are increasing the risk that companies will face funding constraints should the selloff persist. Junk bonds issued by energy companies, which have made up a record 17 percent of the $294 billion of high-yield debt sold in the U.S. this year, have on average lost almost 4 percent of their market value since issuance, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“People are getting concerned about the ability to repay,” Ashish Shah, the New York-based global head of credit strategies at AllianceBernstein Holding LP, said in a telephone interview. “Bottom line: the cost of the thing they produce is declining and it’s declined very rapidly.”

Debt Pile

Speculative-grade bond deals from energy companies have made up at least 16 percent of total junk issuance in the U.S. the past two years as the firms piled on debt to fund exploration projects, Bloomberg data show. Typically the average since 2002 has been 11 percent.

Of the losses handed to buyers of securities issued this year, $1.6 billion came before the first interest payments, known as coupons, were due, the data show.

In June, when oil prices reached the highest level in three years, energy bond yields of 5.7 percent matched the broader Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. High Yield index, making it attractive for some investors, said Shah, whose firm manages $262 billion in fixed-income assets and scaled back its purchases of energy-company debt earlier this year. Now investors are demanding a yield of 7.1 percent, 51 basis points more than the index’s average.
…

Breaking News
U.S. September Retail Sales Fall 0.3%; Excluding Autos Drop 0.2%
Tweet TWEET

Oil Falls to Four-Year Low as Europe Stocks, U.S. Futures
By Abigail Moses Oct 15, 2014 5:44 AM PT
Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Oil is languishing in a bear market, with the International Energy Agency predicting the lowest demand growth since 2009, even as U.S. supplies rise.

Oil slumped to the lowest in almost four years, European stocks dropped with U.S. index futures and German government bond yields reached a record low on evidence economic growth is slowing.

Brent crude decreased 0.8 percent to $84.40 a barrel at 8:42 a.m. in New York. Germany’s 10-year yield dropped to 0.79 percent. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 1.7 percent, with Shire Plc tumbling as much as 29 percent after AbbVie Inc. reconsidered a takeover bid, and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures slid 1.1 percent. Currencies of oil-producing nations declined.

Oil is languishing in a bear market, with the International Energy Agency predicting the lowest demand growth since 2009. Retail sales in the U.S. dropped 0.3 percent in September, more than economists forecast, after China reported weaker-than-estimated consumer inflation.

“There’s a chill in the global markets,” Paul Mortimer-Lee, chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas SA in New York, wrote in a note to investors. “There are lots of contributory factors to this unease.”

The Bloomberg Commodity Index of 22 raw materials fell to the lowest since July 2009, as Brent dropped to the lowest since Nov. 24, 2010, and West Texas Intermediate oil slipped 1.8 percent to a more than two-year low of $80.41 a barrel.

Global oil demand will rise by 650,000 barrels a day this year, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly report yesterday. That’s a reduction of 250,000 from a prior projection. Crude stockpiles in the U.S., the world’s biggest consumer, probably expanded by 2.5 million barrels last week, a Bloomberg News survey showed before government data tomorrow.
…

And goon:
I was just in CO this last weekend looking around again down more toward the Springs - had a couple of hours with the realtor and he is still positive house sales there in CO - yet the inventory keeps going up - pricing starting to drop and even though popular I think your missive Colorado = the next California is spot on.
One thing the realtor told me was very telling - the dolts in Cali - when the prices go up - they migrate to CO - wait out the bust and then head back over to Cali to buy the lows and start the rinse cycle all over again. What a bunch of whores.

And airline stocks cratering as I write this.

Don’t blame that Hag, blame the idiot that wrote the check!

Hillary says it does “life-changing and like-saving work,” but it pays twice as much in salaries as it gives out in grants. ‘

hire all your friends or at least jobs for their idiot kids

How does this result in any tax benefit to her? If she is paid $225k and she donates $225k (or less), she’d get just as much overall tax benefit by sleeping in that morning.

I don’t know about “The Clinton Foundation” or the “Clinton Foundation,” but the “Clinton Family Foundation” is a PF (private foundation). Deductibility of donations to private foundations is generally (the “generally” is lawyer talk) limited to 30% of adjusted gross income. Deuctibility to public charites (like universities, museums, Red Cross, etc.) is generally limited to 50% of adjusted gross income.

This is just more evidence of the War on Warmists.

” Climate change’ could get warmer could get colder but whatever it does you’re going to pay. What would Machiavelli say about this ?

“If I had a son, he’d look like Thomas Eric Duncan”

Isn’t Liberia the country started by ex-US slaves?

How is that working out; probably one of the richest nations in the World?

And it’s one, two, three, what are we fightin’ for ??

+1 Ben…Country Joe McDonald…Been many decades since I hummed that song…

Don’t ask me I don’t give a damn, next stop is Vietnam (Iraq, Syria, Ukraine - take yor pick), and its 5,6,7 open up the pearly gates.
Well there aint no time to wonder why…WHOPEE we’re all gunna die.

You gotta watch Woodstock to really get the flavor of what I think Ben is trying to say here…..

Did not a whole bunch of smart people predict this?

Wanna buy a $500,000 starter home in Monrovia, Liberia?

Same here.

it doesn’t use cookies. You can clear the data the extension stores via the extension settings if you’d like to try that.

I’ve not upgraded to FF33, and am not familiar with what changes are in it, so folks simply should avoid upgrading if possible for now.

Crater

SWFTF…Nice post the other day on the “guy in the glass”…

Good grief…is the PPT on permanent government furlough or something? DJIA is off by 300+ points, with no “relief rally” in sight…

U.S. budget deficit hits lowest level of Obama presidency
If PPE is considered a ‘taxable medical device’ under Obamacare, that oughta really decrease the deficit by increasing tax revenues!

Credit Markets
U.S. Government Bonds Book Fourth Straight Weekly Gain
Global Stock Selloff Adds to Rally
By Cynthia Lin
Updated Oct. 10, 2014 4:28 p.m. ET

U.S. Treasury prices rose Friday as selling pressure hit global stock markets, leading the 10-year yield to its longest streak of weekly declines since January.

In late afternoon trading, benchmark 10-year notes gained 6/32 in price to yield 2.305%. The yield fell from 2.45% at the start of the week, marking a fourth straight weekly decline—the longest since the turn of the year.
…
A research note by Bank of America Merrill Lynch out Friday found that €1.3 trillion of eurozone government debt trade at a negative yield, representing about 30% of the market. This could mean as much as €1 trillion is looking for better-yielding investments, the firm estimates.

Still, considering the magnitude of the selloff in global stocks, bond traders say the lift that has provided Treasurys has been limited.

Bonds face uncertainties of their own—namely when the Federal Reserve will become confident enough about the U.S. economy to tighten policy.

“Unless we go into a deflation spiral, I don’t see yields going much lower,” said Gary Pollack, head of fixed-income trading at Deutsche Bank’s private wealth-management unit, pointing to widespread expectations that the Fed will begin raising rates in the middle of 2015.

Minutes released Wednesday from the Fed’s latest policy meeting suggested the central bank is willing to exercise patience, yet some say persistent improvements in the U.S. labor market mean a rate increase is on the horizon.

Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Charles Plosser is among the most vocal advocates of tightening policy sooner rather than later. In a speech Friday, he said “I fear that the public has come to expect too much from its central bank and too much from monetary policy, in particular.”

For now, the Fed’s patience and a lack of inflation in the U.S. and globally have allowed bond yields to stay around historic lows in a year when many expected rates to rise. At one point this week, the 10-year yield fell to a 16-month low of 2.277%.

The year’s unexpected bond-price rally has compelled many analysts to lower their yield forecasts. Bank of America Merrill Lynch became the latest to do so Friday, cutting its year-end call on the 10-year yield to 2.75% from 3.1%.
…

Credit Markets
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls Below 2%
Latest Round of U.S. Data Heightens Worries Over the Global Economic Outlook
By Min Zeng
Updated Oct. 15, 2014 10:08 a.m. ET

The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury bond’s yield dropped below 2% on Wednesday for the first time in 16 months as anxiety over the global economic outlook intensified.

The 10-year note’s yield fell to as low as 1.858%, the lowest intraday level since May 2013, according to Tradeweb, representing the latest leg of a monthslong slide that has caught many investors by surprise. Yields fall as prices rise.

Tumbling yields came as investors rushed into ultrasafe U.S. government debt. A round of U.S. economic releases Wednesday added to concerns over the global economy as they raised the question of whether U.S. growth could withstand the impact from a faltering economy in Europe.

U.S. retail sales posted a 0.3% decline last month and a gauge of business outlook for the New York region slowed sharply. Meanwhile, the producer-price index, a gauge of wholesale inflation, fell by 0.1% in September a amid sharp drop in energy prices.

The bond gains extend an unexpected yearlong rally that has intensified this month, underscoring ebbing hopes for a stronger global economy. The retreat of global-growth expectations has sent market-based gauges of inflation expectations into free fall and sparked a collapse in global energy prices, creating ripples through the stock market.

“It just seems everywhere one looks, none of the news is good news and as such there is little else to buy other than Treasurys,’’ said Anthony Cronin, a Treasury bond trader at Société Générale SA.

Falling bond yields could be a boon for U.S. consumers and businesses. The 10-year note’s yield is a benchmark to set long-term borrowing costs in the U.S. economy. Mortgage rates have fallen in recent weeks, making it easier for homeowners to refinance. Companies have also been locking in low interest rates to sell long-term bonds this year.

Investors are keeping a close eye on whether the U.S. economy, which has fared better compared with other developed nations, could withstand the impact from a faltering economy in Europe. Federal Reserve officials flagged weaker growth in Europe in its monetary policy meeting last month as one of the reasons to be patient in raising interest rates.

The uneven pace of the global outlook comes at a time when the U.S. stock markets have posted the most violent swings for years amid persistent geopolitical risks including the standoff between Russia and Ukraine and the Ebola epidemic. Many commodities have seen their prices tumble over the past few months, partly reflecting concerns about weak demand in Europe and Asia.

Tuesday, Treasury bonds rallied after European industrial-production data showed a bigger-than-expected decline in August, and an index of economic sentiment in Germany turned negative for the first time since late 2012. The U.K. reported that inflation in September slowed to the lowest level since 2009.

“There is a rush to buy flight-to-quality bonds like Treasurys,’’ said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income rates in New York at ED & F Man Capital Markets.
…

With the 10-year Treasury yield dipping as low as 1.858% this late in the year, I am still scratching my head over how Bank of America thinks it will somehow increase to 2.75% by year end. Wouldn’t that require a historically unprecedented bond market crash?

There is talk already about more Fed bond buying, but wouldn’t that server to drive long-term Treasury yields even lower than market forces are already driving them?

Heard on the Street
Yield Sign Suddenly in Fed’s Way
Low Inflation Is Exacerbating the Problems From Slowing Global Growth
By Justin Lahart
Oct. 14, 2014 5:37 p.m. ET
Shops in London advertise sales. U.K. consumer prices rose just 1.2% in September, the latest sign of low inflation around the world. Agence France-Presse/Getty Images

The prospect of slowing global economic growth is worrisome enough for U.S. investors. That it comes at a time when inflation around the world is low, and central banks have little firepower, is what makes it really unsettling.

Prices around the world have taken a chill. With producers of oil and other raw materials geared for breakneck Chinese growth that is no longer a given, these markets have taken a hit. Brent crude oil slumped 4.3% on Tuesday to its lowest level since 2010. Commodities ranging from corn to copper are also near four-year lows.

Reflecting unease, Treasury yields have tumbled, confounding expectations they would move higher as the Federal Reserve ended its bond-buying program this month. The yield on the 10-year note fell to 2.206%, Tuesday, its lowest level in over a year.
…

Don’t look now, but as of today the 30-year Treasury yield is 100 bps lower than it was on January 2, 2014 (2.92% now, 3.92% then).

And it’s only 42 bps lower from here to reach my recent flippant call for a 2.50% 30-year Treasury yield. (Not a prediction — just a flippant call!)

Bond Report Get email alerts
10-year Treasury yield dips below 2% amid mega rally
Published: Oct 15, 2014 4:46 p.m. ET
Benchmark yield skids over half a percentage point in the past month
By Ben Eisen
Reporter

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield dipped below 2% on Wednesday for the first time in 16 months as economic growth fears roiled global markets during a whirlwind trading session.

The 10-year note (10_YEAR, -2.19%) yield, which falls as prices rise, touched an intraday low of 1.873% in morning trade, down roughly a third of a percentage point. The yield reversed most of its drop throughout the session, ending down just 6 basis points on the day to 2.148%, according to Tradeweb.

The benchmark yield has fallen nearly half a percentage point since its recent high on Sept. 18 and nearly nine-10ths of a percentage point since the beginning of the year.

“In terms of U.S. economic fundamentals, I think interest rates are below what is justified,” said Bill Irving, who leads the government mortgage team at Fidelity Investments. He added that such low yields signal a more “pessimistic outlook on the economy” than underlying data.
…

This is the hallmark of an efficient stock market: It is impossible to predict which way it will move next.

yea we are running out of soldiers to do the work. No shortage of Generals though.

When reading the book, you may notice some differences between the way the CDC and US Army guys from Fort Detrick protected their employees/soldiers (level 4 containment, full biohazard suits with respirators) vs. the CDC “protocols” for the working schlubs (masks, gloves, aprons………no suits, no respirators)
There is a YouTube video sponsored by the biocontainment unit at the University of Nebraska which shows this contrast rather remarkably (the insiders seem to be wearing suits with respirators although not full moon suits)- but there is no comment on the difference in the protocols shown being used on the video. Should be very easy to find using Google.

XGS

I took a five hour trip to Vancouver on a 788 flying at 40m ft. Normally after a flight like that I am tired, but not this time - cabin pressure set 2m ft lower.

Do you have any news on this plane. Best flight to date.

Patrick

I’m sure that someone got a bonus for coming up with that little jewel.

Is it go time yet

The circus hasn’t started yet. Wall street hasn’t shown their hand regarding who the two lead pipe characters will be for the final bake-off. Hillary and the Romney guy at this point are front end hawkers to keep the true believers interested.

Don’t you have something better to worry about?

I’m not knowledgeable enough to comment on the macro effect but QE definitely effected me personally…made it virtually impossible to buy a house with a mortgage in 2011/2012 thanks to all the QE fueled 100% cash flippers and speculators but I retired and cashed out my pension in 2012 and got waaay more than I would have had interest rates not been artificially low. So very much a mixed bag for me but QE scares the hell out of me too, don’t see how the QE era can possibly end well.

Record bank profits.

We’ve been pillaged.

I’m not looking for unfalsifiable statements like “if we didn’t act, it would have been worse” or “we didn’t borrow/print fast/hard enough”. Is there any available hard evidence?

I think that a lot of economists would probably say that unemployment would have been higher if interest rates had also been higher during the past few years. You might say that their models are not falsifiable, but that’s the nature of economics.

ahansen…My goodness woman where you been ?? Have you seen or heard anything from Hwy ??

Hey good lookin’, how ya been?

ahansen said:
Thought of all you shadenfreude-hungry bloggers:

Shadenfreude! Feels wrong but when bad things happen to the right people…:-)

Good to see you here; hope you are well!

Financial Times
Last updated: October 15, 2014 11:32 pm
Bulls run for the exit
Stephen Foley and Vivianne Rodrigues in New York and Ralph Atkins in London

Rising concerns about the global economy triggered a “flash crash” in US Treasury yields on Wednesday, as losses spread across stock markets and a new wave of investors appeared to give up on their bullish bets.

The yield on a 10-year Treasury, a key barometer of the strength of the US economy, fell below 2 per cent for the first time since the Federal Reserve began talking about removing its monetary stimulus in May 2013.

Dealing desks scrambled to make sense of the scale of the drop. Yields fell from 2.19 per cent to 2 per cent in the hour after the release of weak US retail sales, and then plunged to 1.86 per cent in a matter of moments. They had rebounded to 2.13 per cent by late afternoon in New York.

Trading volumes soared, with a record $924bn in US government debt changing hands throughout the session, according to ICAP data.

The gyrations in the US bond market followed steep falls in European share prices earlier on Wednesday. The FTSE Eurofirst 300 dropped 3.2 per cent – the index’s biggest one-day fall since late 2011. The US S&P 500 fell as much as 3 per cent to 1,820 before closing 0.8 per cent lower on the day.

Investors are reassessing their expectations for global growth amid concerns of deflation in the eurozone, weakness in emerging markets and falling oil prices.

Iain Stealey, fixed income portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, said: “We have this environment in which Fed quantitative easing is ending, expectations about global growth and inflation are falling, and so people want risk-free assets, which means ‘buy US Treasuries’.”

The drop below 2 per cent triggered stop-loss buying of Treasuries from hedge funds and other investors who had bet on a gradually improving economy and rising interest rates. Bank dealing desks raced to cover their own short positions. Yields move inversely to prices, so falling rates reflect rising demand for bonds.

Traders also mentioned a research note from Goldman Sachs telling clients to abandon a lossmaking bet on rising yields on the 3-year Treasury note, which it had recommended in June.

“Fear brings on fear,” said Ray Nolte, chief executive of SkyBridge, a fund of hedge funds. “Funds had not been bailing out on their positions exactly, but risk is being taken down, losses are being taken, and that is prudent given the level that volatility has moved up to.”

The move in Treasuries was the biggest single-day swing since the depths of the credit crisis in 2009.

“We were watching in astonishment,” said Adrian Miller, director of fixed-income strategy at GMP Securities. “Having the 10-year note trade at these levels, back where we were before the Fed taper talk, it’s extraordinary. There is no place to hide if you are pro-risk.”
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Financial Times
Global Market Overview
October 16, 2014 4:05 am
Global equities rout spreads to Asia
Josh Noble in Hong Kong

Thursday 03:45 BST. The global equity market rout spread to Asia, driving Japanese stocks to their lowest level in six months, although declines elsewhere in the region were more muted.

The Nikkei 225 sank 2.3 per cent, dropping below the 15,000-mark to hit 14,724. The yen was steady at Y106 against the US dollar.

During the US trading session the Japanese currency strengthened from Y107 to as much as Y105.35 versus the dollar in a matter of minutes as global investors rushed into perceived havens.

Shares in exporters dropped the most in Tokyo due to the stronger yen, with Honda Motor falling 3.8 per cent and Kyocera shedding 3 per cent. Blue chips Fast Retailing and Softbank each lost 2.5 per cent, dragging down the index.

Japan Display, which makes mobile-device screens for clients including Apple and Sony, tumbled 18 per cent after forecasting a loss for the year. Recruit Holdings provided a bright spot, with shares in Japan’s biggest staffing agency gaining more than 6.5 per cent in their trading debut after a $1.9bn initial public offering.

Global growth plays were under pressure elsewhere in the region, with Rio Tinto off 1.8 per cent and BHP Billiton down 2 per cent in Sydney. The broader Australian market slid 0.9 per cent.

“We need to remember that sentiment is still deteriorating and there are still many questions that need answers,” said Chris Weston, strategist at IG in Melbourne, in a report. “With that in mind, traders are asking, ‘what is the catalyst that will really drive markets higher?’”

Concerns about the global economy sparked a “flash crash” in New York trading, driving US 10-year Treasury yields below 2 per cent for the first time since May 2013 as trading volumes soared. The S&P 500 lost as much as 3 per cent before closing the session down 0.8 per cent.

“Market action overnight shows that investors are increasingly concerned about a potential slowdown in the US economy through contagion from the rest of the world,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, analyst at Crédit Agricole, in a note.

Weak US data and fears about the possible spread of the Ebola virus added to concerns about the health of the European economy, triggering a rapid darkening in sentiment and a spike in volatility across asset classes. Earlier, in the European session, shares fell sharply, with the FTSE 100 sinking 2.8 per cent and the Spanish index off 3.6 per cent.

The early turmoil highlighted just how nervous market participants had become over recent weeks. The apparent catalyst came from a batch of weak data releases that fuelled worries the US economy might not be immune to slowing growth elsewhere.

“The liquidity crisis many had waited for is unfolding. Theoretically it is an absence of speculators willing to absorb risk,” Sebastian Galy, analyst at Société Générale, wrote in a note to clients.

The 10-year US Treasury yield bounced off the day’s low of 1.87 per cent to stand at 2.17 per cent late in the New York session, paring its decline to just 7 basis points compared with a 34bp drop at one point.

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 1 per cent with only four stocks in positive territory. The Shanghai market edged lower by 0.5 per cent, while South Korea’s Kospi lost 0.8 per cent.

Oil prices continued their downward trend, with Brent trading at $83.28 a barrel during early Asian trading hours, while gold edged higher to $1,243 per troy ounce.
…

Is now a good time for dips to buy?

Opinion: Brace yourselves for another financial crash
By Steve Keen, Special to CNN
October 15, 2014 — Updated 1606 GMT (0006 HKT)
Dow suffers biggest point drop of 2014

Editor’s note: Professor Steve Keen is the head of Economics, History & Politics at Kingston University London, the author of Debunking Economics, and the publisher of a Debtwatch blog. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

(CNN) — The stock market’s recent jitters have made many investors wonder whether there’s a new financial crisis just around the corner. Well, of course there isn’t — because we’ve never really left the last one.

Financial crises of the scale of the 2007 crash only really end when their causes are unwound by debt repayment, bankruptcies, debt write-offs, and inflation.

In the 1930s, there was plenty of all four. The end result was that US private debt fell by almost 100% of GDP from its deflation-spiked peak of 130% in 1933, to a low of 35% at the end of WWII.

By comparison, the debt cutting we’ve been through so far in this crisis is trivial — a fall of under 20% from a far higher peak of 175% in 2010.

And we thought this was going to work?

It has and will, of course, for a while. So long as we’re willing to borrow more than we repay, there will be growth. Rising debt means there is more money in the system, driving up the economy.

That has been happening since early 2010, when the deleveraging that caused the 2007 crisis stopped, and Americans began to borrow again.

But with private debt still at levels that make the late 1920s seem like a period of sobriety rather than Great Gatsby excess, the headroom to keep on borrowing simply isn’t there. So the economic revivals are likely to peter out much more rapidly than they did back in 1990, when debt peaked at “only” 120% of GDP.

Nowhere is this more evident than in that ultimate casino, Wall Street. There, margin debt has already returned to the peak it reached back in the biggest stock market bubble of all time, the DotCom bubble.

The increase then was stunning: having hardly ever exceeded half a percent of GDP before 1990, it rose fivefold to 2.75% of GDP in just 8 years. We hit that peak again in March 2014 — and we thought it could keep on rising?

Of course, we thought no such thing because, with the earnest assistance of conventional economic thinking, we convinced ourselves that leverage didn’t affect stock market prices and that instead prices reflect this ethereal thing called “fundamental value.”

To my eye, the real “fundamental value” is our willingness to go into debt to buy an asset.

That willingness rises as rising debt drives asset prices higher. But it also ultimately peters out, since the debt rises much more rapidly than the incomes that pay these debts off.

Then the Catch-22 of financial markets takes over: It takes not merely rising but accelerating debt to keep stock prices rising. Even a slowdown in the rate of acceleration of debt is enough to send the stock market south.

My acceleration indicator has been flagging that the stock market was due for a fall since mid-2013.

It’s a tribute to the power of the Fed’s Quantitative Easing that the market continued to defy the gravity of decelerating debt for so long. QE was really a program to inflate asset prices since, as my colleague Michael Hudson puts it, “the Fed’s helicopter money fell on Wall Street, not Main Street”.

But with QE being unwound, the stock market is now back under the control of the not so tender mercies of excessive private debt.

So welcome to the New Crisis — same as the Old Crisis. The roller coaster ride is likely to continue.

Stockswatch
Market ‘freak out’: Stocks rebound from scary plunge
By Matt Egan @mattmegan5 October 15, 2014: 4:29 PM ET

NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
Don’t blink. Otherwise you’re bound to miss a wild swing in this increasingly-violent stock market.

It was a memorable day on Wall Street as the Dow plummeted 460 points before staging a late rally to end down “only” 173 points. The Nasdaq briefly fell into correction territory, indicating a 10% drop from a prior high, but rebounded sharply to finish the day barely in the red.

“It was an emotion and panic-filled day both in and out of assets. You flushed out a lot of panicked longs and you’re getting a knee-jerk bounce. What this means going forward, I don’t know,” said Peter Boockvar, chief market analyst at The Lindsey Group.

Late-day heroics: The factors behind the early losses were obvious and plentiful: slow economic growth, rising Ebola fears and continued uncertainty about the Federal Reserve. The reasons for the rebound were less clear, though beaten-down stock prices appeared to entice buyers to step off the sidelines.

Just look at the Nasdaq, which closed a whopping 2.4% above its low point for the day.

The Russell 2000, a basket of small-cap stocks that has recently taken a big hit, actually rallied over 1% Wednesday.

“$SPY $QQQ impressive comeback from the bottom,” StockTwits user Zachi wrote.

Despite the late-day heroics, the recent slide on Wall Street has wiped out a whopping $1.5 trillion of market value from the S&P 500, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.

Fear continues to grip the stock market. This week CNNMoney’s Fear & Greed Index has tumbled to zero, indicating “extreme fear,” for the first time since 2011.
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Markets More: Greece
Greece Is In Full-Blown Stock Market Collapse
Joe Weisenthal
Oct. 15, 2014, 8:44 AM

As if the world didn’t have enough to be worried about (ISIS, Ebola, slowing China, Ukraine, slowing Germany, Fed tightening, etc.) now look what’s back: Greece. And in a big way.

The stock market is down over 9% on Wednesday, which is about as big as crashes come.

And the banks are getting absolutely smashed.

Greece, which had been calm for a while, is now being wracked by two separate but related things.

One is the rise in the political popularity of left-winger Alexis Tsipras, the leader of the Syriza party, who if he ever got elected to power would take a much more confrontational stance with the rest of the eurozone with regards to austerity.

Meanwhile, a rift is growing between the current Greek government and the rest of the EU as Greece is keen to exit its bailout program. The EU is not so sure.

So now the Greek market is getting crushed.

Here’s the chart showing the nosedive. And this is before Wednesday’s move.
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This is probably not the best time to be in high beta stocks (e.g. Greek stocks)…

David Weidner’s Writing on the Wall
Opinion: This is who’s getting really walloped by the stock slide
Published: Oct 15, 2014 7:54 p.m. ET
Fewer of us are invested in equities today, but we should still be worried
By David Weidner
Columnist
The richest 5% of U.S. households own 82% of stocks — as well as most of the yachts.

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — What a week. The stock market is having a sale. Or less euphemistically, we’re all getting clobbered.

Or are we?

Since the Great Recession, most Americans invested in the stock market pulled back and never returned. Between the start of 2007 and the end of August 2014, more than $635 billion has flowed out of equity funds, according to the Investment Company Institute. And this year’s short-lived rally? More than $35 billion has been lost to outflows, ICI reports.

Not all of this is due to investors bailing out. Many have shifted to a new wave of low-cost products including index and exchange traded funds.

That said, the overall trend of declining market participation is very real, and though studies differ in methodology, they all draw the same conclusion. Overall stock holdings — any type of ownership, including individual stocks — by households topped out at 67% in 2002, according to an ongoing Gallup poll, but has been erratic since. By 2011, that number fell to 54%.

It’s the wealthiest households that have seen fortunes rise and fall with the market.

A study by the Pew Research Center, published in May, found stock ownership has become even less pervasive, just 45%. A study by the University of Michigan published Sept. 8 found the percentage of U.S. households owning stocks either directly or indirectly dropped to under 18% in 2011, down from 30% in 2001. Just 16% of households hold stocks directly, the lowest number since 1962, according to the study.

So, given the rate of declining participation, what exactly should we make of the market’s recent rally, and current turn for the worst? A few things.

First, while the market may still be a good gauge of underlying sentiment and there has been a rally and correction based on the confidence of investors, much of the swing higher and lower may have more to do with technology in the markets. The “flash crash” of 2010 underscored the duplicative nature of algorithmic trading. Send one robot into a selling frenzy, and they all follow.

In this way, many of the market gains and recent losses may have more to do with programmed reactions rather than a true wave of human sellers who want to buy or sell.

Second, even the underlying sentiment wasn’t so much about the belief that stocks were, or were not, a good buy. As the market edged higher this year, much of the gains weren’t supported by fundamentals. The recent fears about global growth aren’t new. This year’s gains, instead, were driven more by a lack of returns in other investments including housing, bonds and most commodities.

And ultimately, those gains and losses were driven by a very distinct class of investor: the wealthy. The richest 5% of households own 82% of stocks, and it’s the wealthiest households that have seen fortunes rise and fall with the market, according to the Federal Reserve and the Pew Research Center.

That doesn’t, of course, mean that we should ignore the market’s slide. After all, even with declining participation, the stock market is still a key indicator that we use to measure our economic health. Just look at the headlines of general-interest publications this week. Along with the unemployment rate and the cost of gasoline, it is a yardstick that sets the tone for our daily conversations about the economy — even if most of us aren’t participating.

And for those who do hold stocks, they’re generally the ones making decisions about our economy: whom to hire, how much to expand and so on. If they’re feeling less well off after looking at their portfolios, there’s a good chance they’ll feel less confident about adding jobs and opening factories and stores.

All of this is to say most of us aren’t really directly affected by the stock market’s recent rise and subsequent correction. But we shouldn’t ignore it. A prolonged selloff, to borrow a loaded phrase, may trickle down. And not in a good way.
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