October 20, 2014

Confidence In The Property Market Is Collapsing

The Globe and Mail reports from Canada. “An analysis of local incomes released last week by and urban planner Andrew Yan, showed that 25- to 55-year-olds with BAs in Vancouver make about $41,000 a year, $10,000 a year less than the median for Canada and $20,000 less than in top-paying Ottawa. The spread was even worse for people with master’s degrees– as though employers realize people are so desperate to be in Vancouver that they can pay them less. ‘The relationship between incomes and prices of homes has totally broken down here,’ said Andrew Ramlo, a director at Urban Futures.”

“Eesmyal Santos-Brault, a green-building consultant, bought his first condo 10 years ago when he was 28 and working at a non-profit for near minimum wage. He didn’t think he’d even qualify for a mortgage, but his mother, a real estate agent, offered to lend him the $7,000 he needed for the minimum down payment. To his surprise, he found the bank would indeed lend him money. ‘I keep telling all my artsy, environmental friends that they should do this,’ says Mr. Santos-Brault, who has since bought a townhouse in Strathcona while renting out the condo. And he worries that people are handicapped by the attitudes they’ve inherited from their families or social circle.”

“‘They don’t know anyone who owns, they don’t understand money, they just don’t think it’s possible. I keep telling them: ‘It’s a conspiracy to keep you as renters. Then you can pay someone else’s mortgage,’ he said.”

Dow Jones Business News. “Hong Kong has one of the world’s biggest wealth gaps and its highest real-estate prices. Years of stagnant wage growth have created deep frustration among students and the middle class. One target of their frustration is the city’s tycoons, a handful of families and colonial era conglomerates that control most of the real estate. Even as thousands of protesters took to the streets, the property arm of Li Ka-shing, who Forbes says is worth about $31.4 billion, was unveiling apartments that totaled 165 square-feet. The apartments, about the size of a one-car garage, haven’t been priced yet, but slightly larger units have recently sold in the city for between HK$1.77 million and HK$3.6 million ($228,000 and $464,000 U.S.).”

“Ka-shing said in a statement that he understood the ‘passion’ of Hong Kong students but urged them to go home. The tycoons’ words don’t resonate with young protesters such as Arnold Chung, 19, who expects to live with his parents for years. Average starting salaries for university graduates have risen 1% annually over the past 17 years, to 198,000 Hong Kong dollars (U.S. $25,522) a year, lagging behind inflation and lagging far behind the rise in housing prices. ‘The young generation doesn’t listen to Li Ka-shing,’ said Mr. Chung, a student. ‘We expect rich people to say this (protest) will disturb the economy.’”

The South China. “The crisis facing Hong Kong-listed Agile Property Holdings after its chairman was put under house arrest has aroused investor concerns about how widespread President Xi Jinping’s anti-graft campaign will be in the struggling property industry. Qi Jingmei, a senior researcher at the State Information Centre, a government think tank in Beijing, told the South China Morning Post that corrupt government officials should be worried, but not competitive developers. ‘It will not harm the development of the whole real estate industry,’ she said. ‘But it’s not bad to wash out some weak developers through such a campaign.’”

“A housing glut continued to plague the industry and developers needed to strengthen their corporate management during the downturn, Qi added.”

“Li Junheng, the head of research at JL Warren Capital, a New York-based independent equity research firm with a China focus, said: ‘Widespread corruption in itself is not new news, but fraud investigations and consequential funding cutoffs are material headwinds for developers.’”

The West Australian. “Confidence in the Perth property market is collapsing, a new national survey has found. It is even worse for landlords, with rents expected to fall over the next two years. Confidence in the Perth property market is now at its lowest level on record with most of the fall taking place over the past six months. NAB chief economist Alan Oster said the survey had found strong activity by foreign buyers in all States. In Victoria they accounted for almost one in every four new property sales.”

“Another issue uncovered by the survey was housing affordability concerns linked to growing concern among homeowners about the state of the jobs market. ‘This was not surprising given recent strong house price growth and rising trend unemployment,’ Mr Oster said.”

The Advisor in Australia. “In recent weeks debate has raged on the best way to cool the market; one school of thought being meddling with lending rules, the other – espoused by building and real estate associations – to simply increase the supply of homes. Aussie Cranbourne franchisee Michael Spalding has warned that new homebuilding may not be music to brokers’ ears. ‘I operate in an area which is rife with new home construction, and I haven’t noticed a boost in business,’ he said. ‘There seems to be a lot of building going on, but I have no idea where people are getting the money from to buy.’”

The Irish Independent. “Three weeks ago, The Sunday Independent conducted a ‘blind shopper’ exercise which revealed that some banks were offering up to five times people’s salaries and asking for deposits of less than 10pc, desperate to start lending again. The Central Bank reacted. In fact it seems to have overreacted, bringing in strict new rules that are more restrictive than almost anywhere else in the world. ‘For someone on an average salary to save 20pc of the cost of the average starter home, especially if in the meantime they are renting, will take three years, five years, longer,’ says Keith Lowe, CEO of one of the country’s biggest estate agents. ‘These proposals mean a deposit of €50,000 on a property that costs just €250,000, which in Dublin will barely buy you a two-bed apartment. That takes years and years to save.’”

“A rake of international private equity houses and investors poured into the Irish residential property market in the wake of the recession. Major investment firms such as Lone Star and Kennedy Wilson own thousands of Irish homes. They now face a vastly-changed market - and they are spooked, according to Lowe. ‘I had one of the biggest on the phone to me yesterday, asking me should he be concerned,’ said Lowe. ‘These guys are worried, particularly by the pace at which this is all happening.’”




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71 Comments »

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 05:12:54

“Confidence in the Perth property market is collapsing, a new national survey has found. It is even worse for landlords, with rents expected to fall over the next two years. Confidence in the Perth property market is now at its lowest level on record with most of the fall taking place over the past six months.”

California’s landlords needn’t worry about falling rents in Oz, since CA rents always go up. I’ve seen this for a fact in SD.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2014-10-20 05:14:30

“… some banks were offering up to five times people’s salaries and asking for deposits of less than 10pc, desperate to start lending again.”

Desperate to start lending again = desperate to start collecting fees again.

It seems to me that if the incentive is to COLLECT INTEREST from lending out other people’s money then you should expect to get one type of behavior, but if the incentive is to COLLECT FEES by lending out other people’s money then you should expect to get another type of behavior.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 06:08:23

3 pc, anyone?

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 05:52:43

‘Construction intentions for new condos in Toronto fell off a cliff in August, data showed earlier this week. That was followed a day later by additional data showing the number of “starts,” or actual shovels hitting the ground to begin construction on tower units, has similarly deflated to a four and-a-half-year low.’

‘The pair of reports have left experts to wonder whether the bulk of Toronto’s condo boom is behind us. “It certainly looks that way,” Robert Kavcic, an economist at Bank of Montreal, said in a note.’

‘Still, there’s remains plenty of high-rise building taking place in the city, Bank of Montreal and others note. Emporis GmbH, an industry researcher from Europe, noted recently that Toronto still has about 130 condo towers of various sizes going up around the city and surrounding suburbs.’

‘That figure is up from the start of the year, and is the most of any North American city. Those new towers are accommodating 56,000 sold and unsold units, Bank of Montreal estimates.’

‘That amount of supply remains high even in the face of what appears to be sufficient demand, experts say. Bank of Montreal’s Kavcic cautioned would-be buyers may want to tread carefully over the next several months. “We could see a dose of supply hit the resale market in the year ahead,” the economist said.’

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 05:56:16

‘Coastal real estate continues to lag well behind soaring city prices with latest capital value ratings reflecting slow property market trends. While homeowners in many suburbs face revised capital values of up 50 per cent or higher those living on the city fringes have been delivered more modest increases.’

‘And those with homes on outlying islands of the Hauraki Gulf have even been delivered the news they face a drop. Popular seaside holiday spots Leigh and Piha are facing a small three per cent average increase in capital value while those in the Gulf Islands of Rakino, Kawau and Great Barrier Islands face an average decrease of between minus 2 and minus 23 percent.’

‘Osborne believed many would-be buyers were still in the dark about the southern region’s geography and did not realise it was just a 45 minute commute from Clark’s Beach into Auckland’s central business district. “The problem is people don’t know where we are,” she said.’

‘One property her company was marketing was now sitting at nearly $100,000 under its $880,000 CV and still unsold. But she was optimistic prices for coastal properties would begin to rise.’

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 06:08:07

It’s good to know stinky shacks in Canada are as radioactive as these here.

Comment by rms
2014-10-20 20:14:36

+1 Great weather too.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 06:12:52

bought his first condo 10 years ago when he was 28 and working at a non-profit for near minimum wage. He didn’t think he’d even qualify for a mortgage, but his mother, a real estate agent, offered to lend him the $7,000 he needed for the minimum down payment.

If true, doesn’t that tell us something…Not to long ago, ownership was affordable to twenty somethings with modest incomes…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 06:16:18

Do you really believe wages will triple to meet grossly inflated asking prices of resale housing? Of course they won’t. Housing prices will continue to fall until they meet wages.

That’s how efficient markets work.

 
Comment by MacBeth
2014-10-20 08:30:12

How long ago is too long ago?

Houses have been priced out of reach for “those with modest incomes” for 3-4 decades now.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 09:25:29

The problem didn’t get really out of hand until the post-1996 period.

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Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 14:54:23

Houses have been priced out of reach for “those with modest incomes” for 3-4 decades now ??

Well read it again then Dude…He bought his 10 years ago…Gee’s…You like to argue with yourself also….

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 15:29:23

It’s a factual statement regarding California.

Just how much fraud are realtors, appraisers and mortgage salesmen in CA involved in there?

 
 
 
Comment by Patrick
2014-10-20 17:45:34

scdave

I just looked up some numbers from about ten years ago in Vancouver - payroll numbers - all are university graduates, most with engineering degrees. Average pay was $69,000. Those having pass BA only (or college ie technologist) was $60,000 (low was $51,000). (2005 data).

Pays must have gone down since I was out there - two months ago ! But these guys are all making more than before - much more -

Yes, back then they could just afford a house - but not today even with the higher pays. They are buying condos !

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 06:13:50

Are they trying to sell to clueless foreigners? I can’t imagine locals not knowing how long it takes to drive from the beach to the city.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-10-20 08:49:34

You’d have to be pretty stupid to think that it is a “short drive” from the Barrier Islands to downtown.

 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 06:18:39

‘The BIS Shrapnel report argued Sydney property prices were not overvalued or in a “bubble”, with the harbour city lagging behind other capitals’ growth over the previous 10 years.’

‘Sydney prices rose just 40 per cent between 2004 and 2014 compared with 72 per cent capital growth average.’

‘BIS Shrapnel’s Robert Mellor said he expected the Reserve Bank to begin raising interest rates over the 2015/16 financial year, with the median house price sliding back to about $885,000 by 2017. “The upturn we’ve been seeing in Sydney house prices is definitely not over yet,” Mr Mellor said. “June 2016 should represent the peak of Sydney price growth because by then affordability factors should start to come into play.”

‘LJ Hooker sales team Justine Hallows and Alex Lechner said there was a sense of urgency among buyers looking for homes under $1.5 million. “They think that if they don’t buy now they’ll pay much more down the line but there still isn’t much going up for sale,” Ms Hallows said.’

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 06:29:28

‘In Victoria, foreigners now account for one in four new property buyers, and one in nine established home buyers, the NAB Residential Property Survey shows. Liberal MP Kelly O’Dwyer, who is chairing a parliamentary inquiry into foreign investment in real estate, yesterday called on the Foreign Investment Review Board to prosecute any foreign buyers who flout the tight curbs on buying established housing.

“There is no question that FIRB processes need to be dramatically improved for audit, compliance and enforcement,’’ she told The Australian yesterday.’

“FIRB have not brought a prosecution since 2006. It beggars belief that there have been no breaches of the foreign investment framework regarding residential real estate.’’ NAB chief economist Alan Oster suspects China is responsible for a “large chunk’’ of the foreign investment. “One of the big drivers in the foreign investment is Chinese looking for a bolthole,’’ he said. “We know there are Singaporean investors onselling to China. The foreigners are buying apartments in the CBD, which are more up-market than the average.’’

‘Sydney housing prices — which rose 17.4 per cent in the past 12 months — are tipped to grow just 4.5 per cent in the next year.’

‘Melbourne’s growth is forecast to slow from 11.3 to just 2.8 per cent, with Adelaide’s growth slowing from 6 to 3.8 per cent, and Perth’s from 5.6 to 1.7 per cent. “We don’t believe we have a housing bubble, but our outlook is that increasing house prices will be more modest than they have been in recent times because of rising unemployment, sluggish household income growth, affordability concerns, cost-of-living pressures and high levels of household debt,’’ the survey says.’

‘Demand from Australian investors has fallen in the past three months, from 32.5 per cent of sales in the three months to June to 27 per cent in the September quarter. First-home buyers bought 16.2 per cent of established homes in the September quarter; down from 18.5 per cent in June.’

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 07:03:05

‘In Victoria, foreigners now account for one in four new property buyers, and one in nine established home buyers, the NAB Residential Property Survey shows.’

I haven’t thought about it in a while, but this brings to mind “Herbert Stein’s Law”:

If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.

 
Comment by snake charmer
2014-10-20 10:42:08

I don’t know if Ben has excerpted this article yet, but it discusses how Chinese money of dubious origin has poured into the Los Angeles suburb of Arcadia, where it goes toward constructing gigantic feng shui McMansions. Really remarkable; it talks about some social tensions that have arisen too.

http://tinyurl.com/kqfjwrf

Comment by Overbanked
2014-10-20 14:40:13

That part of eastern Los Angeles County has been majority Asian for about 20 years now, Monterey Park, Alhambra, San Gabriel, Temple City, San Marino, Arcadia and then farther east to Hacienda Heights, Rowland Heights, Walnut, Diamond Bar.

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Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 06:33:53

‘Peru is one of the countries in the region with the largest increase on the house prices during the past few years. Economist Elmer Cuba, told teleSUR about prices in the capital city: “In Lima, for example, during the past 5 years, prices have risen by almost 120 percent.”

‘Cuba continues, “It makes us wonder if it’s a bubble or a boom. According to the figures, there is no bubble in Peru, in that we do not expect house prices to go down again. These prices are here to stay, and they reflect the demands and higher incomes of the population.”

‘This boom has seen a rise in plot-trafficking mafias and informal construction, but also precarious builds on the outskirts of the city.’

‘For Maximo Riveros, buying a house would not be easy. His taxi is his only method of getting an income to meet his basic needs, including paying rent for the apartment he lives in. He doesn’t believe he could ever afford to buy a house.’

“Not with the money I make I couldn’t do it, I don’t have the economic means. How could I buy? I would have to get a formal job, and earn at least 5,000 soles [US$1,700]. At the moment I only make 1,500 soles [US$500],” Riveros told teleSUR.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-10-20 09:04:32

“plot-trafficking mafias”

Don’t we call that the NAR?

 
Comment by snake charmer
2014-10-20 10:57:30

“Precarious builds” is an understatement. Last year in Medellin a portion of an upscale apartment building (named “Space”) simply collapsed. The building only had been completed a few months beforehand. Fortunately residents had been evacuated after substantial cracks began to appear.

The collapse was blamed on a faulty concrete pillar. The developer at first insisted that the remainder of the building was safe, but the entire complex has since been torn down.

http://tinyurl.com/ofqebr5

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 06:38:51

‘Winnipeg house prices continued to moderate in the third quarter of this year as an abundant supply of homes for sale put a damper on price increases for two of the three most popular types of homes, a new national survey by Royal LePage says.’

‘The real estate company said its third-quarter house prices survey showed the average selling price for a standard bungalow in Winnipeg was up only 0.5 per cent from a year ago, climbing to $308,706. That compares with a two per cent year-over-year increase in the second quarter of the year.’

”The average price for a standard two-storey home declined by 1.4 per cent to $341,863 after dropping 2.4 per cent in the previous quarter.’

‘Preston said that means sellers should be tempering their expectations. “People need to be patient right now — the market is going to come back. There is still a lot of movement, but it is just going to take some time.”

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 06:53:56

‘JACK RASMUS: The decade of the 1970s was one of severe economic crisis, especially for the advanced economies of the USA and Europe. A quarter century of USA economic dominance and easy growth since 1945 was coming to an end. Competition between capitalist economies was beginning to intensify, with the recoveries of Europe and Japan. Internally, unions and labor parties were demanding a bigger share of national income and were having some successes. In response, key capitalist sectors and politicians began restructuring internally and developing new strategies. The first fundamental change was the USA’s abandonment of the old Bretton Woods international monetary system, where the US dollar was pegged to gold and other currencies loosely to the dollar in turn. That would have the result of capitalist economies’ central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, constantly pumping fiat money supply into the US and global economy. Over time this led to the rapid over-expansion of liquidity in the global economy, to the creation of new highly liquid financial asset markets, to new forms of financial securities traded in these markets, and to the rise of a new global financial elite with massive economic power and eventual unprecedented political influence as well.’

‘Further developments thereafter intensified these trends: controls on international money capital flows were eliminated in the 1970s and 1980s, led by the USA but quickly followed by others. That opened the door to a more rapid expansion of finance capital worldwide. Then in the 1990s a revolution in digital technology created the internet that further accelerated the globalization of forms of speculative finance. Concurrently, regulations on banks were removed to clear the obstacles from the global expansion of finance capital. So financial deregulation was the consequence, not the fundamental cause, of the growth of finance capital. The more fundamental causes were the end of Bretton Woods, the shift of central banks thereafter to excessive liquidity creation, end of controls on international capital flows, and technology.’

‘All of this accelerated the development of global speculative finance, since it paved the way for its true globalization. Capitalist investors discovered that it was easier to make money by creating money and speculating in financial assets they created instead of making (producing) real goods and assets.’

‘Financial asset investment is therefore ‘crowding out’ real asset investment slowly worldwide. Global capitalism is slowing its rate of real investment. That’s why it is having trouble creating jobs and incomes for the rest. That’s why consumption is stagnating in the west, and why consumer debt is being offered as a substitute to households lagging in income growth.’

‘That slowing of real investment, it should be understood, is directly related to the shift to speculative financial investment by the global capitalist elite since the 1970s. The proliferation of shadow banks globally, the establishment of numerous highly liquid financial asset markets, and the creation of countless new financial security instruments to trade in those markets are all an expression, a reflection, of these changes. Together, they constitute what I call the new ‘global money parade’.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-10-20 13:07:03

Just say it Jack. The worst is yet to come.

 
Comment by rms
2014-10-20 20:40:15

Between 1965 and 1975 the U.S. acquired several huge burdens: 1) The Great Society programs; 2) The Clean Water Act; 3) The Vietnam War; 4) Israel’s Occupied Territories. LBJ also signed into law more policies without adequate future cost analysis than any previous American president.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-10-21 03:18:16

Fascinating discourse. I like him….he clearly knows Jack! Here is the unasked and unanswered question: do you participate in the economy or stay out of the water, keeping your money in a mattress?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-21 10:51:08

Or lever up on depreciating assets at grossly inflated prices like you.

 
 
 
Comment by Larry Littlefield
2014-10-20 06:54:38

The article on Vancouver is interesting, and seems to be repeating around the world.

College-educated people are desperate to live in a limited number of urban areas where they can “get a life,” places with a high level of amenities and a concentration of entrepreneurial activity. And the price of living in those places has gone to the moon.

Meanwhile, they don’t seem to be making any more of them. People aren’t ditching Brooklyn for Buffalo, or Vancouver for Halifax.

I guess Austin and Salt Lake City may be moving into that orbit, but Austin is starting to get expensive as a result.

Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 07:08:16

College-educated people are desperate to live in a limited number of urban areas where they can “get a life,” places with a high level of amenities and a concentration of entrepreneurial activity. And the price of living in those places has gone to the moon ??

Yep……Marriage & kids is not even part of the thought process..Neither is saving to buy a house…Living it up and friends with benefits is the name of the game…

Comment by AmazingRusss
2014-10-20 12:42:55

As a famous boomer once said “I just want to have my kicks before the whole shithouse goes up in flames”

 
 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-10-20 07:43:30

Salt Lake is definitely moving into that orbit. We first arrived here in the late ’80s, left over a decade ago, then came back in the middle of crash 1.0. There’s no way we’re buying back into the current madness. I watch what’s going on and just shake my head in disbelief.

Comment by snake charmer
2014-10-20 11:05:56

I was out there a couple of years ago and was surprised that it had a hip downtown scene for young people, complete with a brewpub featuring craft beers called “Polygamy Porter” and “Provo Girl.”

I was expecting a very conservative Mormon environment, and there indeed was some of that, but there is a lot more to the city.

 
 
Comment by GooglerInSF
2014-10-21 17:04:14

>People aren’t ditching Brooklyn for Buffalo, or Vancouver for Halifax.

Give it time. I grew up in NY, you couldn’t PAY me to go to Brooklyn back then. Places eventually go through rotations.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 06:55:43

“In Lima, for example, during the past 5 years, prices have risen by almost 120 percent ??

Everywhere you look…Throughout the world we see this same thing…The only differential is of degree…So, can we assume that FED policy over the last five years or so has just spilled over into every property market world wide…I can’t add up all the markets you have posted here over the years Ben but they all reflect the same thing…Property values that have exploded to the upside…

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-10-20 13:10:57

Biggest expansion of credit in history, and yes it has been global. Credit makes people dumb and that has been global as well. A smartening is on the way, and that is global.

Comment by traderjack
2014-10-20 17:06:45

Actually , it is very strange, and I think that what is happening is that people have a strange belief that if they buy a house with a large mortgage, that it make them instantly a rich person!
After all , they live in a exclusive neighborhood, with gates, and therefore should have excellent furniture, cars, clothes , and landscaping.
And all of those can be bought on credit, with no down payment by creditcards.

Joy in their wealth if worth the expense of their lives, and it will all get better in the future as the government will expand the economy and everyone will have a high income.

The end will be horrible.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 07:21:27

A collapse in housing prices globally. It’s going to be a doozy.

Get out of debt and stay out and get what you can get for your house today because todays price is your best price for decades to come.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 07:33:01

Why are you so pessimistic? So far as I can tell, real estate prices are steadily improving around the globe.

Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 07:57:07

Why are you so pessimistic ?

= gloomy, negative, defeatist, downbeat, cynical, bleak, fatalistic, dark, black, despairing, despondent, depressed, hopeless;

Conversely, most here are pragmatic…

= practical, matter-of-fact, sensible, down-to-earth, commonsensical, businesslike, having both/one’s feet on the ground

repeated, redundant pessimism to the point of nausea brings zero value to the board…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 08:00:33

Don’t be silly Dave. Wackabubble was be facetious.

Falling housing prices to dramatically lower and affordable levels is positively bullish and good for the economy.

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Comment by oxide
2014-10-20 09:26:38

Affordable for whom? For Joe-6-pack who needs to pony up $10K that he doesn’t have for down payment and closing costs, not to mention 30-years of FHA fees, all out of a lucky-ducky salary? Or for outfits like American Homes for Rent, who can borrow at will, buy cash, and not care about appreciation (sorry Ben) because they will simply sell future rental income to Goldman Sachs in the form of newly-minted RBS?

[thank you combo for that excellent post yesterday.]

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 10:05:00

They can afford rent a house but not buy a house at the same monthly cost?

Donk?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-10-20 13:14:37

The nose of debt is slipped around one’s own neck voluntarily. Having thusly cut off circulation to the brain, vision is clouded.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 07:22:30

‘The current ultra-expansive monetary policy around the world could pose a threat to financial stability, the chief economist of the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) in Basel warned on Monday. In an interview with the German daily Die Welt, the chief economist of the Basel-based BIS, Claudio Borio, warned of the dangers of easy money.’

“From a global perspective, the current monetary policy could contribute to the dangers for financial stability,” Borio said. “Interest rates are globally too low to guarantee price stability and financial stability,” Borio argued.’

‘Companies are not using the cheap cash to invest, the economist said. “Managers have preferred to use the money to finance takeovers or share repurchase schemes rather than in their own business. That’s a clear signal that something is amiss,” Borio said.’

Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 07:27:15

“Interest rates are globally too low to guarantee price stability and financial stability,” Borio argued.’ ??

What happens to Greece,Italy or France bond yields if interest rates rise ?? What about the Russian Ruble ??

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-10-20 07:25:17

‘China may ignite fresh panic over the state of the global economy when it reports its third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) on Tuesday, which could confirm a marked slowdown in the world’s main growth engine.’

“The sagging housing market has affected the economy more broadly, weighing on investment and on commodity production,” Alaistair Chan, economist at Moody’s Analytics, wrote in a report.’

‘Stan Shamu, strategist at IG, calls China’s upcoming GDP data a “win-win” scenario:”If the number misses, there’ll be calls for stimulus. If the number impresses, markets will feel things are not as bad as initially thought.”

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 07:41:09

7.5% or bust!

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-10-20 19:20:37

Financial Times
October 21, 2014 3:01 am
China GDP growth slowest since global crisis
Jamil Anderlini and Lucy Hornby in Beijing

China’s economy grew last quarter at its slowest pace since the depths of the global financial crisis, raising concerns over global growth prospects and increasing the likelihood Beijing will introduce broader stimulus measures.

Gross domestic product in the world’s second-largest economy expanded 7.3 per cent in the third quarter from the same period a year earlier, its weakest performance since the first quarter of 2009, when growth was just 6.6 per cent.

But unlike then, when the economy was in freefall as a result of the global financial crisis originating in the US, China’s growth problems this time are largely homegrown.

The latest quarterly reading means China’s economy this year is almost certain to register its slowest annual pace since 1990, when the country faced international sanctions in the wake of the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre.

A correction in China’s property sector, the most important driver of the economy for much of the past decade, is the biggest drag on growth and most analysts expect things to get worse, given huge oversupply across the country.

Investment in real estate in the first nine months continued to expand but at a slower pace, rising 12.5 per cent over the same period last year, compared with an increase of 13.2 per cent in the first eight months.

Housing sales by floor space fell in the first nine months of this year by 10.8 per cent compared with the same period in 2013, suggesting that the property investment slowdown has further to go.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 07:29:50

“Confidence In The Property Market Is Collapsing”

Nothing makes my day like headlines like these. Nothing.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-10-20 07:33:25

”If the number misses, there’ll be calls for stimulus. If the number impresses, markets will feel things are not as bad as initially thought.” ??

I actually heard a few this weekend questioning if the GDP has fallen to the 4% range which they claim would be very disruptive…Who does China buy from ?? Watching their markets may give a hint whats to come tomorrow or more likely, what the “real” GDP numbers are…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 07:58:21

Get these interest rates back up around 10% and watch the economy accelerate like you’ve never seen.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-10-20 08:13:32

An analysis of local incomes released last week by and urban planner Andrew Yan, showed that 25- to 55-year-olds with BAs in Vancouver make about $41,000 a year, $10,000 a year less than the median for Canada and $20,000 less than in top-paying Ottawa

Interesting … just like here, the best jobs are FedGov jobs.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-10-20 08:34:04

You caught that, too, eh?

Washington DC is the wealthiest metropolitan area across all the United States. Yet it produces very little.

Ottawa has the highest income level across all of Canada? You don’t say. It, too, is the nation’s capital.

Surprise, surprise.

Comment by MacBeth
2014-10-20 08:35:33

I wonder what the voting patterns are in Ottawa.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-10-20 11:29:36

I suspect that this is pretty much true around the world. The wealth flows strongest through the national capital of just about any country.

 
Comment by aragonzo
2014-10-21 22:33:29

Not quite. Oil country (Calgary) has the highest median income in Canada.
http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-10-20 08:46:02

after 20 years- they get automatic raises and DB pensions
private sector gets roulett

retire at 55 for them - 70 for you

 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-10-20 08:31:34

“An analysis of local incomes released last week by and urban planner Andrew Yan,

how many of these do we pay for w tax dollars?

 
Comment by rj chicago
2014-10-20 09:18:15

Ben - posted this to you yesterday on HBB - came in on my email given that I have been looking for housing in Denver area and south.
For all - this seems to me to be representative of the insanity of RE these days.
Granted this is a nice geographic area west of Denver up by Red Rocks - but still - a lottery for the “privilege” of maybe building a stick house next to your closest neighbor about 5 feet away - Really?

Goon and In Colorado - you guys are right - Colorado = the next California!!

Herewith the note I got:
“Exciting news! We are officially ready to start selling lots in phase II!
We will be hosting a lottery next Saturday October 25th at 9:00AM for lot’s 43, 42 and 63 (Lot map can be viewed at http://www.cardelhomes.com ). Details of the lottery and pricing information to follow next week.”

Comment by EbolaLOL
2014-10-20 10:24:51

Looking at the Cardel Homes website makes me think of the Monkees’ song “Pleasant Valley Sunday”.

Drive south of Highlands Ranch toward Sedalia if you want a larger lot and a house that isn’t a cookie cutter clone.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-10-20 10:32:26

But yuppie couples look so smug when they tell you that they live in Highlands Ranch.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-10-20 10:30:51

Goon and In Colorado - you guys are right - Colorado = the next California!!

We no longer have the explosive population growth we had in the 90’s, so there is still hope. And the state has always had a boom and bust economy, once the next bust hits population growth will probably fall to 0%.

If you ask me, Arizona = the next California. It’s closer to both Cali and Mexico. And it doesn’t have TABOR.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 15:10:00

CO has a reckoning coming.

 
 
Comment by rms
2014-10-20 21:02:27

“Cradled by Red Rocks Country Club, Lyons Ridge feels like a private mountain retreat. Starting in the $500s including lot”

First time buyers? Heck, toss in $50k of furniture, a leather appointed Honda Minivan for her and a tough guy diesel 3/4-ton 4-dr pickup truck with a Broncos decal for him. Come on ‘Merica, pony up!

 
 
Comment by Watch Pimp
2014-10-20 15:39:53

Why rent now when you can buy for 65% more later?

 
Comment by Watch Pimp
2014-10-20 15:41:21

Why are realtors being truthful to the public?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 17:18:12

Washington, DC Sale Prices Crater 15% YoY; Housing Demand Plummets

http://www.zillow.com/washington-dc-20008/home-values/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-10-20 17:20:44

Allen, TX(Dallas) Sale Prices Turn South; Down 4% YoY As Inventory Balloons

http://www.zillow.com/allen-tx/home-values/

 
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