Bits Bucket for November 4, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Denver, CO Sale Prices Turn Flat On Year; Down 6% QoQ and 2% MoM
http://www.zillow.com/denver-co/home-values/
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/many-baby-boomers-will-move-into-a-bigger-home-for-retirement-2014-10-31
Thanks for the Bullshart. More pimp surveys.
* The report found that the majority of boomers don’t plan on moving at all, with 63% stating that their plan is to age in place.
Actually Amy The Donk is right. They’re moving into much bigger houses called old age facilities. That trend is accelerating.
My aging folks are moving to one of those “bigger houses” in a couple of weeks. Amy finally got something right!
My aging folks are moving to one of those “bigger houses” in a couple of weeks ??
As we did with my MIL….Best move we ever made…Went from a environment of being alone and eating terribly to having a lot of new friends and eating well…New lease on life for her from my perspective…
My in laws did that. Moved out of a nice house they built and lived in for years into a McMansion neighborhood. My MIL had visions of grand kids running around the house during holidays, having extended families over and such.
Then everyone moved away from Ohio. A lot of the houses on the street are for sale, so much so that the neighborhood passed a “no for sale signs” since it looked blighted. (And it did). They regret buying it every day, and when they pass we will just sell it……for a fraction of what they bought it for.
You bet a lot of them won’t be moving anywhere. They can’t, because they’re trapped like every other home debtor. They’re still up to their necks in the stuff, and a good percentage are still underwater. This, at the point in life when it all should have been paid off years ago.
As far as moving into the care centers - most of those places keep their monthly charges down because the equity from the sale of your last house is turned it over to them (for keeps) as part of the cost of entry. People falling for the reverse mortgage scam probably haven’t thought this far ahead, I guess they’re hoping to die suddenly in good health, huh.
Sandy!
Denver, CO Sale Prices Turn Flat On Year; Down 6% QoQ and 2% MoM
The talk of EZ appreciation has vanished from the lunch table as well as the talk of “trading up”. There were no raises again this year, except for yours truly and another team member. Don’t get too excited though, I only got 5%.
5% in this environment is nothing to sneeze at. Congrats!
Plano, TX Sale Prices Crater 10% MoM and 5% QoQ; Flat YoY
http://www.zillow.com/plano-tx-75093/home-values/
Dallas home price gains outpace U.S. and Texas growth
“Dallas prices jumped 9 percent in September compared with the same month in 2013, according to the latest data. Only Houston (9.9 percent) and Riverside, Calif. (9.5 percent) had larger price increases in Dallas among the cities CoreLogic compared. Dallas’ home price increase was also ahead of the Texas gain of 8 percent.
Nationwide prices rose by 5.6 percent in the same period.”
http://bizbeatblog.dallasnews.com/2014/11/dallas-home-price-gains-outpace-u-s-and-texas-growth.html/
I can ask $50k for my 10 year old Toyota Corolla but where is the buyer at that price?
That is why housing demand has collapsed to 20 year lows.
Yes, but the Dallas median sale price is only $194,000 per Zillow so there’s room on the upside. OTOH Texas is a high tax state — property tax is big at 2.6% — that will keep a lid on prices to some extent. A $460k house in Texas will set you back a whopping $1,000/month just for property tax!
“the Dallas median sale price is only $194,000″
…..and falling at a pretty good clip which surprised me.
Homestead exemption drops it close to 2% for me. Homestead exemption is 15% of appraised value.
San Franscisco, CA Sale Prices Plunge 9% QoQ and 3% MoM; Excess Housing Inventory Skyrockets
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94112/home-values/
Any thoughts on whether the strong dollar might kick Coastal Cali’s real estate price declines into overdrive?
Coastal CA will still be the destination of choice for Chinese embezzlers and grifters looking to park their loot, and themselves, beyond the reach of PRC authorities (and popular rage once China’s bubble economy implodes under the weight of its own fraud).
Agreed except their gold won’t go as far after conversion to dollars, constraining their purchase budgets.
Mo Credik Mel Matters Much More
Only at the low end of the market, unless it gets crazy again. (Not to suggest lighting never strikes twice…)
The conforming loan limit in SoCal is what? I think like $625,000. Mo Credik Mel matters more to that market.
Mo Mel da Market Maker. Nothing but collapsing demand and collapsing prices without him.
I posted this weird story to show how crazy that part of the world can get.
“Korean collectors are crazy for E. agavoides right now, ‘Ebony’ in particular. Brokers, growers, and collectors are flying over and renting vans to drive up and down the state snapping up everything they can find to take back for sale in their burgeoning market. From what I can tell there’s a strong financial motivation…”
Tulips all over again! Holy Jeebus!
That’s from a few years ago.
Choosing 1 zip code within SF, and then painting a picture of the entire City based on that zip code is not sound analysis.
For perspective, there are 32 homes for sale in that zip code today, and about 100 homes sold in the last 90 days in that zip code.
There is about 1 month of inventory on the market (NOT excess housing inventory).
With a small sample size, looking at median calculations makes no sense what-so-ever.
http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca/home-values/
Here is SF as a whole.
And your link shows prices are negative MoM and QoQ.
What’s the issue R._Fraud?
Share of first-time homebuyers hits 27-year low.
http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2014/11/03/share-of-first-time-home-buyers-hits-27-year-low/?mod=WSJ_hpp_MIDDLE_Video_second
B…b…but I thought Ukraine had “stabilized.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-ukraines-rebel-leader-is-sworn-in-crisis-deepens-2014-11
Kr8tur (oil, that is…)
How are all those fracking junk bonds holding up these days?
Markets More: High Yield Junk Bonds Chart Of The Day Shale
Crashing Oil Prices Could Bring The US Fracking Boom To A Sudden And Disastrous End
Sam Ro
Nov. 3, 2014, 3:17 PM
Technological advances in hydraulic fracturing have fueled what some call the Great American Shale Boom. Oil and natural gas extracted from shale basins have left the US flush with energy. It’s been a boon for US energy-related jobs and equipment suppliers.
But it’s not cheap to tap these so-called unconventional plays.
In other words, crashing oil prices will soon make many of these energy sources money-losing projects. Morgan Stanley estimates the average breakeven oil price for these US plays to be about $76 to $77 per barrel. Goldman Sachs puts that number at closer to $75.
If the price of oil can’t cover production expenses and these companies are forced to idle their operations, then you could expect spending to drop, jobs to get cut, and delinquencies and defaults to rise.
To make matters more complicated, many of these energy companies are financing their operations by borrowing in the junk-bond market, which means borrowing rates are relatively high.
“As oil prices have fallen recently, so have prices of high-yield bonds,” Charles Schwab’s Collin Martin wrote in October. When bond prices fall, rates rise.
“Oil prices can have a broad impact on the high-yield bond market because energy corporations have been increasing their share of the high-yield bond market. Today, energy companies make up more than 15% of the Barclays U.S. Corporate High-Yield Bond Index. That’s up from less than 5% of the index at the end of 2005—and the chart below shows that the share has been steadily increasing over the past decade.”
…
Oil craters to three-year low over Saudi speculation
MARKET SNAPSHOT: Futures tip south on plunging oil; EU cuts growth
Saudi price cut paves way for further drops
Now’s your chance to buy cheap oil stocks
Lower oil prices have big political impacts
So is this price drop another financially engineered economic stimulus, courtesy of the PTB?
They’ve long passed the point of any meaningful returns on forced low interest rates, lax mortgage standards, and deficit spending. (Well, they’re trying the mortgage thingy again, but I would bet that even they doubt that it will have much effect at this point.) Reducing the cost of oil may be one of the few levers left that they have to pull.
I don’t know how exactly they would accomplish this, just thinking that there’s motive enough, and there’s nothing they won’t try if they can get away with it.
This plunge has been a long time coming. There is a glut of oil worldwide which can no longer be covered up. What’s laughable is that they were actually able to maintain the price of over $100 per barrel for so long. It was a massive distortion. The chickens are coming home to roost.
So you’re saying in effect that there are limits to how much the banking cartel can artificially inflate asset prices?
Is this the first domino, other asset classes to follow? The oil price collapse of 2008 preceded the stock market crash by about a month or two as I remember.
This is proving to be great entertainment. The speculators and shills are pitting their shants right now. One guy was essentially saying to hurry up and buy because it’s going right back up to close to $100 per barrel. Riiiiiiight.
I see a lot of articles lamenting directly or indirectly, the fall in oil prices. Imagine if we had a central bank whose constituents had a vested interest in high oil prices. We’d hear a lot of august musings about the importance of keeping oil prices high. And we’d get to witness novel interventions by the government and central bank in order to keep oil prices high, all in the public interest of course.
But thank goodness we do have a central bank whose constituents have a vested interest in high house prices. So we get to hear how high prices of a basic necessity is a good thing. We see crocodile tears as the chairwoman laments the poor’s inability to amass assets (”Let them eat cake!”) as her organization works as hard as possible to keep asset prices bubbliciously high.
Quite a spectacle
See page 67 : “Estimated institutional holdings of agency MBS” : http://www.freddiemac.com/investors/pdffiles/investor-presentation.pdf
Happy Election Day! Yesterday I posted on how Republican campaign consultants took Mitt Romney to the cleaners. Here’s an article on how those consultants have done the same with other candidates, in this case wealthy women. It is most informative and enlightening:
http://www.vdare.com/articles/yes-virginia-dare-there-is-a-gop-war-on-women-campaign-consultants-prey-on-rich-millionairesses-like-terri-lynn-land
People not familiar with the advertising industry don’t realize the money that is made on advertising placement, which is just one of the ways that the consultants milk their candidates and the donors.
I tend to agree with you that they are all plutocrat shills. But the Ds will take your guns quicker than the Rs, I think.
+1
And if you’re concerned about keeping your weapons, it would behoove you to be concerned about Republican consultants, because they are notorious for blowing up the campaigns of their candidates.
I’m watching this happen right here in Florida. Rick Scott, who became governor on his own with a maverick campaign, will probably not see re-election because he’s drunk the consultant kool-aid. Worst. Ads. Ever.
If you won without their “help” the first time, why would you allow them to make hash of your campaign the second time around?
Because if you’re an outsider maverick with not much voting record, there’s nothing negative to pin upon you and you can run on being comparatively clean and fresh. (That’s part of how Obama was elected. “No real job” also means no black marks.)
But when you have four years (or more) of public actions, you are guaranteed to p– off somebody somewhere. Hence the needs for consultants to polish the turd you’ve become.
Heh, Rick Scott’s HMO company got screwed to the wall for cheating Medicare out of mucho bux. He somehow managed to escape personal prosecution, but his company had to ante up some big fines.
It was never proven, but most people believe he was in on the scheme. So he brought that baggage with him, but it wasn’t much of an issue in his last election. Now it is.
Time to pay the piper.
34 million more Free Sh*t Army coming soon
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2014/11/03/Law-Enforcement-Defines-Election-As-Referendum-Obama-s-Amnesty-Means-Tidal-Wave-Of-Illegal-Immigration
Are they all going to qualify for GSE financed home purchases?
Heh, you’d be surprised. In my part of Florida, we have a substantial illegal immigrant population and somehow, many of them got into the housing subdivisions financed by the USDA grants to the county. It’s unbelievable, the down payments consist of putting in some time working on the home. One lady told me she did a landscape design for a down payment (she was not an illegal).
Buying the homes that Americans won’t buy any longer…
Buying the homes that Americans won’t buy any longer…
Someone’s gotta do it.
Or not.
And yes, I’m using the word “buying” very loosely here.
Buying the homes Americans won’t buy…
This is definitely true in my neighborhood. DC is sort of a reverse donut. Millenials just starting out want to live in the inner city and take public transport. Established later boomers and Gen X want newer attached product and/or McMansions in the far out burbs. The average shady cold war inner suburbs — i.e. the actual donut — are left to rot. Now the illegals and somewhat legals are moving in to those houses, slapping in some home depot repairs, filling in garages to make extra rooms, installing a renter in the basement, and getting on with life.
Because we need more immigrants here to shoot the cops that Americans won’t shoot, LOLZ
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/29/us/mexican-held-in-shootings-was-deported-after-arrests.html
If you like your illegal driven crime, you can keep your illegal driven crime.
Ten examples of extreme incompetence that pervades the federal government:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-03/10-examples-extreme-incompetence-now-pervades-federal-government
Looks like goobermint workers have a taste for porn and feces. People don’t realize how over the top bad it is, they think you’re being delusional when you try to explain it. When you’ve got human excrement in the hallways of offices, something is terribly wrong. It’s like a huge monkey house.
Promoting people beyond the level of their competence to meet “diversity goals” creates its own set of problems.
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-air-force-just-fired-two-more-nuclear-missile-commanders-2014-11
I agree, but OTOH, I don’t think the Virgin Galactic test ship blew up because of diversity quotas.
The problem with people who get placed in positions beyond their level of competence is that they assume that their more competent underlings (some of whom may have been passed over in favor of a candidate with politically correct social bonafides) have their back. In other words “I dunno what the heck I’m doing, but Joe over there does know and he’ll take care of things”.
Don’t bet on it. If the underling is resentful enough, they’ll smile in their boss’s face and undermine him (or her), often through sheer negligence. Nothing overt enough to cause them to lose their job. If something blows up, they can always bat their eyelashes and say something like “You never told me I was supposed to handle that, that’s the department head’s job.”
The results of such resentment can be devastating.
“The most recent incident involving Jones was in September and occurred at a thrift store operated on F.E. Warren by volunteers, Sheets said. According to the investigation report as described by Sheets, Jones went to the shop, called Airman’s Attic, to discuss shopping hour policies.
“He hit the sign on the Airman’s Attic door and repeatedly hit the shop’s front counter while raising his voice, using profanity” and threatening to shut down the place, Sheets said.”
stressed out or what ??
Region 8 is full of poop!
Speaking of which, I’m starting to get worried about that doctor — he of the bowling — who is suffering from Ebola at Bellevue in NY. Everyone got so distracted mourning for Brittany Maynard that no one realized that there’s been no update for a week. That’s not good news.
Ebola is and always was airborne. The Govt is lying like hell. Google it
CDC admitted it then changed on their site 4 days ago. It was also on Hufo and now has been taken down. Some real sc*mbags at work in DC
Region VIII check in please!!!
#7 The Environmental Protection Agency
You know that things are bad at your agency when employees have to be told not to poop in the hallways…
It appears, however, that a regional office has reached a new low: Management for Region 8 in Denver, Colo., wrote an email earlier this year to all staff in the area pleading with them to stop inappropriate bathroom behavior, including defecating in the hallway.
In the email, obtained by Government Executive, Deputy Regional Administrator Howard Cantor mentioned “several incidents” in the building, including clogging the toilets with paper towels and “an individual placing feces in the hallway” outside the restroom.
Confounded by what to make of this occurrence, EPA management “consulted” with workplace violence “national expert” John Nicoletti, who said that hallway feces is in fact a health and safety risk. He added the behavior was “very dangerous” and the individuals responsible would “probably escalate” their actions.
And just like the SEC, there has been a lot of porn watching going on at the EPA too. The following is from a recent Washington Post article…
In May, the Environmental Protection Agency’s inspector general disclosed that a senior-level employee was caught spending as much as six hours of his day looking at porn. The IG found that the employee had downloaded and viewed more than 7,000 pornographic files. The Justice Department is investigating further for possible prosecution.
Four months later, the employee has not been fired and is still collecting government pay, Environment & Energy Publishing reported last week.
Here’s some housing news from Jesus Land
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-03/israel-defying-u-s-moves-ahead-on-east-jerusalem-construction.html
Christian Zionists in the U.S. should be happy because this means the Rapture will happen sooner
And even better yet, after today’s election, the foreign policy of the largest military in the world will be decided by people who believe the Earth is 6,000 years old
What they didn’t mention is that the construction loans are guaranteed by the U.S., passed by our congress.
A prime example of the asset bubbles Yellen professes not to see: $100 million dollars…for a wire sculpture??
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102147023
The people who buy these sorts of things literally have nothing else to spend their money on. But they will argue with a waiter over $.50 on their bill, and stiff them.
“$100 million dollars…for a wire sculpture??”
I hope it gets stolen by a “minority-at-risk” thief and melted-down at a scrap yard for a few crack rocks to smoke.
Am I the only one that thought I was reading the Onion when I opened the link for this article? How many more works of art I never saw before or heard of before that will go for a gazillion dollars? That topless Maude painting? I mean, c’mon.
How long until the Voluntaryists start picketing polling places urging others not to vote?
Not voting. It’s the only real vote you have.
Vote with your dollars. Not through political contributions, but how in general you save, invest and spend them. Or don’t.
We still have all the $$$ votes we need to topple the whole mess in a matter of days or weeks. When the inevitable collapse arrives, it will be various people and financial interests voting with the $$$ that brings it on.
Didn’t the Icelanders vote to tell the Banking Clan to get stuffed?
This joke of an article from MarketWatch asks should the man always pick up the check
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/should-the-man-always-pick-up-the-check-2014-11-04
LOLZ that the Marxist-Feminist shaming is no longer contained to Slate or Salon or Huffington Post and has spilled over into the financial “news”
Sorry, cupcake, but there’s no unswallowing the Red Pill
Enjoy your cats and boxed wine and Sex In The City DVD’s
Not generally a fan of WND but this article by a woman - “Feminism has Slain our Protectors” - seems spot-on.
http://www.wnd.com/2014/09/feminism-has-slain-our-protectors/
That article was not written by real journalists
Men are leaving the plantation, and no amount of shaming will bring them back
Men are learning that 50% of marriages end in divorce and that 70% of those divorces are initiated by women and deciding that it’s just not worth it
and deciding that it’s just not worth it ??
Its just not worth “taking the chance” is more like it….
“Men are learning that 50% of marriages end in divorce and that 70% of those divorces are initiated by women and deciding that it’s just not worth it”
“Father Allegedly Shot, Killed Wife Then Himself in Front of 2 Children in Mission Viejo on Halloween”
A father was suspected of shooting and killing the mother of his children in front of their 13 and 7-year-olds before turning the gun on himself Halloween night in Mission Viejo, officials said Saturday.
Scott Gimbel, 50, and Linda Sachs Gimbel, 44, were found dead in a parking area of an apartment complex at 26971 La Alameda (map) around 8:36 p.m. Friday, the Orange County Sheriff’s Department stated in a news release.
Investigators believe Scott Gimbel shot Linda during a child-custody exchange before killing himself.
The two children were present during the shootings, the news release stated.
Both bodies were found near Linda Sachs Gimbel’s vehicle and the handgun suspected of being used was also located.
I thought men were obsolete. If that’s the case, then the ladies should always pick up the check.
Tell us how you really feel about that, eh Rockstar?
I enjoy a free meal as much as the next guy. If a pretty lady pays for it, all the better.
How Democrats will react to midterm election results.
http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/jimmy-kimmel-wins-the-most-evil-halloween-trick-award-hands-down–lJhdwDtQwg
Because infinite growth is not possible in a finite ecosystem
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-more-than-40-percent-of-chinas-arable-land-degraded-xinhua-2014-11
And what an ecological utopia the Earth will be when it is occupied by 20 billion humanoids, the Lord will provide
Last weekend I overheard a realtor say get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be much much less tomorrow for many years to come.
She’s right.
Former CBS News Reporter Sharyl Attkisson Claims Existence of Obama Enemies’ List
11:00 PM PST 11/03/2014 by Paul Bond
CBS executives suspect that the government hacked your computer, and CBS computers, but there’s been no accountability? CBS just dropped the matter?
As far as I know, although what they told me was they wanted to heavily pursue it and find out who was responsible. I discovered on my own they have a computer security specialist working for CBS … But nobody ever questioned me, came to my house, checked the security of my system, asked me for more information, or followed up with me.
Do you believe that people working for the president of the United States hacked your computer and spied on you?
The way you phrase the question makes me want to couch it a little bit. I have been told by two computer forensics experts that a highly sophisticated entity using abilities outside non-government resources, using software proprietary either to the DIA, CIA, FBI or NSA made repeat remote intrusions into both my computers over a period of time. And we have evidence of a government computer connection into my computer system.
And why do you think they would target you as opposed to more partisan voices, like Rush Limbaugh or Glenn Beck?
The question carries the assumption that they haven’t targeted others. I kind of assume I’m on a list. I don’t think I’m the only one, along with James Rosen and the Associated Press, that garnered special attention. There’s probably a list of people.
So an enemies list, like in the Nixon administration?
I’ve been told there is such a list, yes.
And who do you suspect is on that list?
Well, there’s an internal email that indicated reporters who were working with leakers in government agencies or perceived as enemies of the White House are being targeted. So I think that’s probably accurate — anybody that they perceive as harmful to their agenda or working with leakers and whistle-blowers, which I did a lot of.
Do you have sources who told you the names on that list? Is Rush Limbaugh on that list, for example?
Another reporter told me — I can’t remember who — that they thought he was on some sort of target list, but I don’t know that to be the case. I have someone who told me the existence of a list but not the names on it.
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cbs-news-reporter-sharyl-attkisson-745982 - 112k -
Inconceivable! The Most Transparent Administration in History would never be so creepy.
President Obama had Andrew Breitbart murdered and he learned how to do it straight from the Clinton playbook
And Attkisson will be found face down in a ditch with a bullet in the back of the head soon
Hopefully Attkisson doesn’t drive one of those Mercedes with a flying engine that blows up before you hit a tree.
Journalist Michael Hastings Dies in Fiery Hollywood Crash
Posted 6:30 AM, June 19, 2013, by paulmartella and KTLA 5 Web Staff, Updated at 09:32am, June 19, 2013
HOLLYWOOD, Calif. (KTLA) — The investigation continued on Wednesday into a fiery car crash in Hollywood that killed award-winning journalist Michael Hastings.
Hastings, 33, was perhaps best known for a Rolling Stone article that led to the resignation of Gen. Stanley McChrystal.
The solo-vehicle crash happened near the intersection of Highland and Melrose avenues around 4:15 a.m., according to the LAPD.
Hastings’ Mercedes-Benz slammed into a tree and caught fire.
“I just seen parts fly everywhere and I slammed on my brakes and stopped and tried to call 911,” Cortez added.
The engine of the vehicle was found in a yard about 100 feet away.
ktla.com/2013/06/19/driver-killed-in-fiery-car-crash-in-hollywood/ - 162k -
Journalist Michael Hastings Dies in Fiery Hollywood Crash
Loretta Fuddy. And then there’s grandma…
Not a new thing:
“Henry is said to have uttered words that were interpreted by his men as wishing Becket killed. The king’s exact words are in doubt and several versions have been reported.The most commonly quoted, as handed down by oral tradition, is “Will no one rid me of this turbulent priest?”
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thomas_Becket
All part of the plan there goon - all part of the plan!
“Another reporter told me — I can’t remember who”
Good answer! Good answer!
There was a late discussion yesterday on how a suddenly strong dollar should affect the prices of dollar-denominated assets.
Which got me to thinking: Since U.S. corporate stocks are dollar-denominated, shouldn’t a stronger dollar make share prices want to tank?
Please discuss.
Home> Money
How to Profit From a Stronger Dollar
Nov 2, 2014, 6:27 AM ET
By DAVE S. GILREATH, CFP®
PHOTO: Heres why you need to consider the direction of the U.S. dollar when investing.
Investors need to keep abreast of various economic factors that affect the markets, and one of the trickiest among these is currencies. Knowing where the American dollar stands among global currencies can be essential to determining what stocks to own and which ones to avoid.
Even though this is a complex area, you don’t have to be a Nobel laureate in economics to get a basic grip on how trends in the dollar’s value against other major currencies might affect your portfolio, at least for the short run; anticipating the effects of major currency fluctuations on the market for the long term is another thing entirely.
Currencies are measured against one another in terms of their relative strength or weakness. The dollar is valued in currency markets according to its strength against other major stable currencies, including the yen and the euro.
Currently, the dollar is stronger than it has been since 2010. After bottoming out in 2011, it has been rising since, and is now up more than 15 percent since its 2011 trough. More technically, the U.S. Dollar Index, a standardized measure of the dollar’s strength against other currencies, has recently been around 85, having jumped from around 80 late in the summer — a significant increase. Generally, this is a good thing for U.S. stock markets because it attracts foreign money from investors seeking dollar-denominated returns instead of in their own currencies. Money will flow to places where it’s treated best.
…
Generally, this is a good thing for U.S. stock markets because it attracts foreign money from investors seeking dollar-denominated returns instead of in their own currencies.”
like RE ?
shouldn’t a stronger dollar make share prices want to tank ??
Strong dollar = Lower Bond yields = Higher asset values…Only dynamic that changes that equation would be significant inflation or a Black Swan….
Which always leads to collapsing demand then collapsing prices which is what we’re seeing right now.
shouldn’t a stronger dollar make share prices want to tank?
And a weaker dollar make them go up. I would think so
Maybe it was something else that made them go up. Something that has not yet gone away.
Real journalists revealed
http://www.businessinsider.com/proof-of-liberal-bias-in-hollywood-media-and-academia-2014-11
Justice Department dispatches poll monitors for Election Day
By Josh Hicks November 3 at 5:28 PM
The monitors will look for race-based discrimination and inadequate resources for bilingual voters and individuals with disabilities, the agency said in a statement on Monday.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…/ -
your link is broken again
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2014/11/03/justice-department-dispatches-poll-monitors-for-election-day/
How do you monitor a mail-in election?
I just don’t trust these numbers. I think Alibaba is one giant shell game and doesn’t do anywhere near the numbers they say, but it’s just a feeling I have. Anyone ever bought anything on that site?
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/11/04/us-alibaba-group-results-idUSKBN0IO14H20141104
Even worse than Facebook?
I dunno. I don’t know one person who has ever purchased anything there. One guy I know said he did, but we were arguing about the company (he was a booster of it, I said it was a sham) and when I asked if he’d ever purchased there, he sort of hesitated before answering that he had.
It doesn’t even come up in my searches for stuff, but then again, I’m not trying too hard usually. If I can get it on ebay or Amazon or direct from the merchant, I don’t go any further.
You don’t live in China. Just a thought.
Fair enough, but does this mean that lots more Chinese have lots more money than everyone else and are doing lots more buying of “stuff”?
I suppose time will tell.
Lena Dunham writes book in which she molests her baby sister
“Conservative” website calls her out on it
Lena Dunham gets all internet butthurt about it on Twitter, LOLZ abound
http://www.businessinsider.com/lena-dunham-fights-back-truth-revolt-molestation-charges-2014-11
This was linked from Google News today
Huffington Post - Disney Princesses With Realistic Waistlines Look Utterly Fabulous
“As children we may not realize that these images in the media affect us, but they definitely do … Media outlets with the opportunity to change the way women are viewed and view themselves should start taking responsibility”
http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/6076634
Why stop there? I wanna see a Disney land whale princess.
It’s only fair.
She gets all kinds of media attention and book sales from it, and further pisses off the people she hates the most. What’s she cryin’ about?
Lena Dunham is the unofficial spokeswoman of millennial females
A narcissistic, tattooed, feminist, hambeast, the voice of a generation
What’s another name for her devoted fans? The ‘pool of 1st time home buyers’, maybe?
Has Apple announced their first round of layoffs yet?
I waited in line to buy my i-phone 6 plus longer than I waited in line for a table at Applebee’s last night
“Politicians and diapers must be changed often, and for the same reason.” — Mark Twain
Incumbents and the entrenched power structure (”deep state”) love apathy and defeatism. While it is true that the deep state does eventually co-opt virtually all politicians, at least there is a brief window where they might work for the public instead of the big donors. Which is a brief window longer than the incumbent will.
One can see the reality of the political theater. But that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t do our part IMO. Voting is a hard won right and while its power is diminished, it still exists it seems to me.
For the year the S&P 500 is up 9.2%. That’s about double the return of the average mutual fund. And hedge funds? Forget about it! According the the best available data from that still murky industry the average buy-side shop is lucky to be breaking even this year.’
the 0.1% and their hedge funds that’s too bad. I think you need 2M net worth to even invest in hedge funds ? Its a law ?
I was in an S&P 500 index fund for a little over 10 years. Most of the time it was underwater. Finally, it went positive in summer 2011, and Europe was simmering. I thought, if I want to at least get my principal back, I should cash out now. So I did. I got a little bit more than what I put in. But I would have gotten more interest over that 10+ years had I simply put the money in a savings account. A lot more interest.
Of course, after I pulled my money out after my lost decade, the market went nuclear, courtesy of ever more aggressive central bank interventions. And now it seems like they specifically target the stock market.
Central planning is a siren song. Impossible to resist by those who have the power and desire to try.
I just checked my Vanguard Performance on my IRA in S&P 500. I’ve been dollar cost averaging to it for over ten years. My average annual gain is 10.3% over the last ten years. In fact the returns are more than what I invested in it. And I reinvested the dividends and gains.
The “buy and hold” strategy is not a good one. It still surprises me that a lot of people still deny the Dollar Cost Averaging method is second best to have perfect timing all the time.
Many people who buy once and hold get burned on that asset and swear off that asset for good. Those people who got into gold above $700 in December 1979 or early January 1980 gave up permanently on gold after that and could have instead been buying batches in the 80s and 90s. Same thing with stocks. Same thing with Treasury notes.
Selfish Hoarder = WIN
“Worthless housing. Worthless worthless housing. Housing is worth less and less with each passing day.”
Don’t you know it.
Now that the US has moved from a public-private hybrid mortgage finance model to a pure public one, it remains to be seen if it is sustainable, both financially and politically.
Why QRM is Such a Big Win for Real Estate
Posted in Breaking News, Mortgage Financing, Politics & Government, by Robert Freedman on November 3, 2014
Realtor.org
For that reason, when the rule came out with no down payment requirement, industry and consumer groups rightly called the rule a victory. There were other defensive moves as well, because in its original form the rule included very specific credit standards borrowers would have to meet, and those were also taken out and replaced with a broad rule that gives lenders flexibility in how they meet the rule’s intent, which is to create a class of safe loans that borrowers have a reasonable expectation of paying back. (Under QRM, if the loan meets the standards, it’s considered safe, so lenders can sell 100 percent of the loan to investors rather than hold back 5 percent of the loan amount on their books.)
As positive as this is for homebuyers, what the rule doesn’t do is get lenders to open up their lending processes more. Only lenders can do that, and right now they’re still taking a fairly conservative approach, most notably by putting credit overlays on loans backed by FHA and the two secondary mortgage market companies, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. QRM will certainly help, because it provides clarity lenders have been asking for on the rules of the road for residential loans. But by itself the rule doesn’t address all the things that’s keeping lenders from easing their restrictions that go beyond what FHA, Fannie, and Freddie require.
What’s more, in about six years, Fannie and Freddie will come under the QRM standard (right now they’re exempt), and when that happens, a small but important percentage of borrowers that Fannie and Freddie now serve won’t be able to meet the standard, even without the lack of downpayment requirement. As a result, unless other things happen, credit availability will become more of a challenge down the road for at least some borrowers. That’s why NAR is looking at other factors that are holding back credit.
http://speakingofrealestate.blogs.realtor.org/2014/11/03/why-qrm-is-such-a-big-win-for-real-estate/
As I’ve said before, running marginal borrowers through the wringer is fabulously profitable for the FIRE sector.
I wasn’t going to vote today but this changes everything!
Michelle Obama Grants Permission to Eat Fried Chicken for Democrat Victory
Posted by Kristinn Taylor on Monday, November 3, 2014, 10:43 PM
Martin: So can we, if we go out to the polls, can we say, we have ‘souls to the polls’ on Sunday, can we do ‘soul food after we vote’?
Obama: Absolutely, I give everyone full permission to eat some fried chicken after they vote only after—if you haven’t voted…(laughter.)
Martin: Just checking!
Obama: You make a good point because I am, I do talk about health. But I think that a good victory for Democrats on Tuesday, you know, should be rewarded with some fried chicken.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/…/ - 74k -
Michelle Obama Grants Permission to Eat Fried Chicken for Democrat Victory
Wonder if that has something to do with the election outcome?
What a fascinating conversation.
be sure to add the gateway pundit to your list of unacceptable websites, mikeymite
That’s the list of websites to avoid. This would go on a different list, the who cares list.
Who cares about this? I mean, what’s the point?
“Who cares about this? I mean, what’s the point?”
It may have something to do with the Michelle Obama inedible school lunch program but if you vote Democrat she gives you permission to eat fried chicken.
Michelle Obama to Students: I Know Your Lunches are Nasty Because of Me; Just Deal with It
September 30, 2014 By Jennifer Burke
Ever since Michelle Obama decided to pay someone to care for a garden for which she gets credit and also play nutritionist, school children and entire school districts have suffered.
While her children are served gourmet lunches prepared by a sous chef that includes things like fresh baked muffins, pesto cream with garden fresh marinara sauce, all beef nachos, pepperoni flatbread pizza, and baked three-cheese lasagne, other children around the country are being served food that many have deemed nearly inedible.
In fact, it is so inedible that school districts have been losing millions as students have opted out of lunch programs and thrown away tons of food every day. Students have been so serious about letting the self-described nutritionist, Michelle Obama, know how much they dislike the food being served because of her that they tweet to #ThanksMichelle. And, they aren’t saying a genuine thank you.
With all the push back that she has experienced, Michelle decided to make an appearance on the school news station Channel One. Her message? Change is hard and I know your food is nasty, but just get used to it.
Progressives Today has an audio of the interview between Channel One’s Maggie Rullie and Michelle Obama.
http://www.tpnn.com/…/ - 260k -
Oh, I see, more partisan blah, blah, blah, blah…..
Partisan fried chicken
Michelle Obama to Students: I Know Your Lunches are Nasty Because of Me; Just Deal with It
Thanks Tarara
I just hope those school kids that voted against Michelle Obama’s lunch program don’t get put on the “enemies list”.
Former CBS News Reporter Sharyl Attkisson Claims Existence of Obama Enemies’ List
11:00 PM PST 11/03/2014 by Paul Bond
So an enemies list, like in the Nixon administration?
I’ve been told there is such a list, yes.
And who do you suspect is on that list?
Well, there’s an internal email that indicated reporters who were working with leakers in government agencies or perceived as enemies of the White House are being targeted. So I think that’s probably accurate — anybody that they perceive as harmful to their agenda or working with leakers and whistle-blowers, which I did a lot of.
I think someone posted this the other day. She’s very brave; at the very least her financials are in order, not that that matters (anyone else here ever been audited?)
Former CBS News Reporter Sharyl Attkisson
Claims Existence of Obama Enemies’ List
sharylattkisson.com
“She’s very brave”
+1 Reporters are paid poorly, and the risk of being ostracized (or worse) is always nearby. Few real protections remain, and those are being whittled away.
“These 6 Corporations Control 90% Of The Media In America” http://www.businessinsider.com/these-6-corporations-control-90-of-the-media-in-america-2012-6
Depends on the what the chicken is fried in. Butter, good. Lard, good. Canola oil, not so fast. And take a pass on the sweet potato pie.
Butter and lard are good? Holy smokes, I would think Canola is healthier. Course, maybe the processing is unhealthy? GMO?
It’s a big deal in paleo circles. Modern oils — soybean, corn, canola, margerines etc — are considered baddies on par with high fructose corn syrup, i.e. industrially extracted and processed fake food which didn’t exist 50 years ago. I don’t have all the biochem on it, but it seems that the oils mess with metabolic hormones and cholesterol and contribute to obesity.
Hmmm. Keep me posted on this if you find anything. May have to rethink using Canola oil.
I’ve about had it with Yahoo mail. It’s down again today, and for longer than I can ever remember. Looks like it’s time to move on.
Same here - all I get is spam on that account, about 300msgs a day. I’ve had the email addy since 1996, I think, but time to put a bullet in its head.
Yeah, I’ve had it since like 1999, and that’s really the only reason I use it. It’s my longest running account, and I have a ton of contacts over the years who have contacted me through it.
Does everyone have…
Vote Here / Vote Aqui signs?
Region VIII
May the odds be ever in your favor Region VIII
And remember, kidz, even if you’re too young to vote you can still sign up for FEMA Corps
https://www.fema.gov/fema-corps
Welcome to the FEMA Corps Inaugural Class
September 14, 2012
2:05 pm
Yesterday, we welcomed 231 energetic members into the first ever FEMA Corps class. The members just finished off their first month of training with our partners at the Corporation for National and Community Service (CNCS) and are one step closer to working in the field on disaster response and recovery. They will now head to FEMA’s Center for Domestic Preparedness to spend the next two weeks training in their FEMA position-specific roles. Once they complete both the CNCS and FEMA training, these 231 dedicated FEMA Corps members will be qualified to work in one of a variety of disaster related roles, ranging from Community Relations to Disaster Recovery Center support.
http://www.dhs.gov/blog/2012/09/14/welcome-fema-corps-inaugural-class - 44k -
Permanent Republicrat supermajority…
Wifey’s comment:
Total gridlock, here we come.
Other comment: She remembered that when Newt Gringrich took over in the 1990s, things got “really bad.”
Not to suggest that it could ever happen that way again…
I think this was a repudiation of Obama and African Marxism, rather than a vote FOR Republicans. However, Arizona re-elected a real live communist to the 9th district, go figure.
#FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica
“My…Precious…”
My PRECIOUS!!!!
Metals Stocks
Gold flirts with sixth session of losses
Published: Nov 4, 2014 11:56 p.m. ET
Warner Bros/Everett
By Shawn Langlois
Markets reporter
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Gold on Wednesday flirted with putting an end to its five-session losing streak, but prices couldn’t shake the lowly levels not seen in four years.
Gold for December delivery (GCZ4, -1.66%) was up 60 cents at $1,168.40 an ounce, while December silver (SIZ4, -2.90%) added 4 cents to $16.00 an ounce.
A day earlier, gold had remained stuck in its rut, moving slightly lower as investors continued to digest Japan’s surprise stimulus and the boost it gave the U.S. dollar.
Louis James of Casey Research says that it’s times like these that test the discipline of investors in the resource sector, where “one is either a contrarian or one becomes road kill.”
He said if a broader market downturn sweeps metals prices lower along with it, “that would, of course, be a spectacular buying opportunity, precisely because so few people will take it. Easy to say, tough to do, and not the first time we’ve said it.”
…
Futures Movers
Oil continues to slide, with Brent at lowest in over four years
Published: Nov 5, 2014 1:52 a.m. ET
All eyes on EIA supply data due later
Oil prices continue dropping Wednesday. A global oil glut is one big cuplrit.
By Eric Yep
Crude-oil futures extended losses in Asian trade Wednesday, with the U.S. oil benchmark at its lowest in more than three years and Brent at its lowest in over four years.
On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in December (CLZ4, -0.45%) traded at $76.81 a barrel, down $0.38 in the Globex electronic session. December Brent crude (LCOZ4, -0.80%) on London’s ICE Futures exchange fell $0.60 to $82.22 a barrel. Crude oil finished at a 3-year low on Tuesday.
A steady stream of weak economic data from Europe is weighing on Brent crude oil prices, pushing it lower along with the drop in U.S. oil prices, analyst Tim Evans at Citi Futures said.
“The downward revision in the eurozone macroeconomic outlook and the further decline in prices were both more of a confirmation that a bearish trend remains than any stunning new development,” he said.
Mr. Evans said a psychological limit of $80 a barrel may help limit the drop in Brent crude prices.
…