The Housing Bubble

Jack Seiler
From Wikipedia

John P. “Jack” Seiler (born May 27, 1963) is an American politician and Mayor of Fort Lauderdale, Florida. Prior to this he was a Democratic member of the Florida House of Representatives, from 2000 to 2008 representing District 92 which is located in Broward County, Florida.[1][2] He served as mayor, vice mayor and city council member of Wilton Manors, Florida from 1993 to 2000.[1] In 2014, he supported and defended laws passed criminalizing feeding homeless people in public, in hopes of eliminating the poorer population from his city.
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“Mr. Abbott has decided that he doesn’t think these individuals should have to have any interaction with government,”

“We disagree,” Seiler said.”

90-year-old man charged for feeding homeless cited again

Arnold Abbott cited for second time

Author: Bob Norman, Reporter, bnorman@Local10.com
Terrell Forney, Reporter, tforney@Local10.com
Published On: Nov 05 2014

FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. -

Local 10 first brought you the story of the 90-year-old man who was arrested for illegally feeding the homeless in Fort Lauderdale. Wednesday he was back to continue his cause.

“I am both enthused and humbled,” Abbot said. “The good news is that there is pressure being put on the city of Fort Lauderdale to do something about a law that is not only unfair, it’s repressive.”

Mayor Jack Seiler, who supports the ordinance, said he’s gotten massive feedback as well, though not always so positive. But he said the law is meant to help the homeless, not to keep them from eating.

“Mr. Abbott has decided that he doesn’t think these individuals should have to have any interaction with government, that they should be fed in the parks. We disagree,” Seiler said.

But Abbott said there aren’t adequate government services or food to deal with the homeless.

http://www.local10.com/…/90yearold-man-charged-for-feeding-homeless-back-at-it/29566212 - 88k -

Citrus Heights, CA (Sacramento) Sale Prices Flat YoY; Turn Negative 7% QoQ and 3% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/citrus-heights-ca-95610/home-values/

Colleyville, TX(Dallas) Sale Prices Plunge 17% YoY; Housing Demand Craters

http://www.zillow.com/colleyville-tx/home-values/

San Luis Obispo County, CA Sale Prices Turn Negative YoY; Down 4% QoQ, 2% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-county-ca/home-values/

Las Vegas Sale Prices Turn Negative on Year; Plummet 10% QoQ and 7% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/las-vegas-nv-89135/home-values/

“In a time of deceit telling the truth is a revolutionary act.”

― George Orwell

“South Florida realtor charged again - with fraud”

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/local/broward/fl-christopher-white-fraud-brf-20141104-story.html

Will NAR ever clean up their act? Ever?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/us-mint-sells-out-silver-eagles-following-tremendous-demand

When it comes to buyers of physical assets as opposed to traders of paper representations of such assets, there is one key difference: the latter, more than anything, enjoy looking at “heatmaps”, chasing trends and jumping on momentum, the result being the most recent massive selloff in such “paper” representations of precious metals as the GLD and SLV ETFs, and various gold futures.

On the other hand, those who prefer to hold the metal in their hands, as well as others such as China whose ravenous apetite for gold over the past 4 years has been extensively covered here in the past, take every advantage of selloffs, and - inconceivably - demonstrate how Econ 101, namely supply and demand, really works, leading to ever greater demand the lower the price. Demand so high, in fact, that the underlying commodity that is being sold through paper conduits, sells out.

This is precisely what happened at the U.S. Mint, which just sold out of all silver American Eagle silver bullion coins, following “tremendous” demand in the past several weeks, according to Reuters reports.

Global scramble for physical silver bullion (as opposed to paper silver being traded by the bullion banks).

https://www.goldcore.com/goldcore_blog/Global_Scramble_For_Silver_Coins_Hard_To_Get_Premiums_Likely_To_Jump

Silver has had a torrid time in recent months and has fallen nearly 40% since July. In less than four months, it is down from $21.40/oz to $15.45/oz today. Silver is 70% lower since reaching over $49/oz in April 2011. The selling has accelerated in recent days and silver has fallen from $17.20/oz on October 28 and is down 12% in the last week.

I saw a table of home prices last night showing double digit deceleration rates for most California cities plus Las Vegas (aka CA East).

“Pension Plans Need Massive $110 Billion In 7 Years, Moodys Warns

“Thanks to improving life expectancy and the Federal Reserve’s financial repression lowering yields, US company pension funds have been hit by a double whammy. As Moody’s warns, companies will have to find $110 billion in the next seven years to fund pension liabilities shortfalls. Moody’s adds, “given these increasing liabilities and cash drains, we expect to see an acceleration in lump sum offers,” as firms try to derisk.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-11-05/us-pension-plans-need-massive-110-billion-7-years-moodys-warns

“… we expect to see an acceleration in lump sum offers …”

Which is good for money managers who can convince retirees that it is in the best interest of these retirees that the money managers manage the retiree’s cashed-out pension money (and collect hefty fees for doing so) instead of having the retirees sit back and collect monthly pension annuity payments for the rest of their lives (a decision which will cut out the money manager altogether), which means:

1. The company wants employees to opt for cashed-out pensions and

2. So do the money managers.

Q. So, who is there to stand up and speak out for the other side, the take-the-monthly-annuity-side?

A. Apparently there is nobody.

An anecdote: A co-worker of mine says she will take the buy out because every money manager who she has ever talked to has told her the that’s the best decision she could make. Never mind that the money manager has an interest in her making this decision - this thought had never entered her mind.

More can kicking in the Eurozone as “former” Goldmanite Draghi pledges moar stimulus “if needed.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/euro-falls-as-draghi-speaks-2014-11

This link isn’t working right:

http://www.realtytrac.com/content/foreclosure-market-report/us-institutional-investors-and-cash-sales-report-q3-2014-8179

But here’s a quote:

“Institutional investors, who flooded the market a couple of years ago, are starting to sell their inventory for substantial gains,” said Chris Pollinger, senior vice president of sales at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market. “Meanwhile, first time buyers are still underrepresented because of affordability challenges in the Southern California marketplace.”

Saving for a down payment? It could take you until 2027
Published: Nov 5, 2014 6:01 a.m. ET
By Quentin Fottrell
Personal finance reporter

If first-time home buyers start saving for their down payment today, in 10 years they still won’t have enough stashed away.

Stagnant wages and rising property prices don’t bode well for first-time buyers who don’t have equity or wealthy parents to help them out. It takes an average of 12.5 years to save up a 20% down payment — the usual requirement by banks — with the current personal savings rate of 5.6%, according to new research by real-estate firm RealtyTrac. It could take even more than that. RealtyTrac’s figure is based on current house prices — and doesn’t take into account possible further rises in home prices.

“It’s too hard to get a loan today and when first-time buyers believe that, they won’t even begin their search,” says Rob Chrane, president and chief executive of Down Payment Resource, a web-based software company in Atlanta that aims to help potential house buyers qualify for a mortgage. RealtyTrac analyzed affordability in 512 U.S. counties with a combined population of 235 million with median household incomes based on Census Bureau data. The median price of a home is around $259,000, which would require a 20% down payment of $51,800.

If the down payment for a conventional loan was lowered to 3% from the traditional 20% — as has been suggested by Melvin Watt, director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency — it would take less than two years. “To increase access for creditworthy but lower-wealth borrowers, FHFA is also working with the Enterprises [Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac] to develop sensible and responsible guidelines for mortgages with loan-to-value ratios between 95% and 97%,” he told the Mortgage Bankers Association last month.
…

The Wall Street Journal
Oil at $70? ‘Panic in OPEC’
Published: Nov 6, 2014 9:16 a.m. ET
Getty Images
OPEC’s output ceiling could be cut if oil falls to $70
By Benoit Faucon
SummerSaid

VIENNA — OPEC would likely lower the ceiling on its collective production if oil prices fall to $70 a barrel, a level most of the group’s members don’t expect to see this year, according to several of the group’s officials.

“At $70 a barrel, there will be panic in OPEC. We have become used to living with $100 a barrel,” said one OPEC official, speaking on the sidelines of a meeting of governors and other officials from the 12 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

OPEC governors are senior officials from member countries involved in formulating the group’s policy. They are meeting ahead of a full OPEC ministerial meeting on Nov. 27. OPEC ministers have so far failed to agree on a unified response to the roughly 25% slide in oil prices since the summer.
…

Listening to the speeches yesterday and watching the results caused me to remember some what some posters here have said. It wasn’t that long ago, someone would say, “the GOP is dead. They are down to a few old white dudes. Stick a fork in them.” And others would dog pile in, completely sure the Republicans were in permanent, irreversible decline.

There are a bunch of things and people that will come out of this that I won’t like. But it is instructive to recall how certain that feeling was. I never could see it. After all, I can remember when Democrats were the party of segregation. These things flip-flop. I still think our biggest political problem is the 2 party system. And note that it is this system that will put people like John McCain back into powerful committee spots just because he’s been there a long time.

From what I’ve read this morning, it seems lots of people didn’t vote. Those who did have economic concerns. The incumbents who were up for election took a bigger hit than usual. Republicans have more to lose in 2016, seat wise. Maybe they will look down that road and see a mirror image to this election . I don’t know. Record high stocks, bonds, near record house prices, and wages are down. The rich are richer than ever. Seems like some pressure has been building and may continue to do so.

“the most direct consequences in Washington will surely be felt by the hundreds of Democratic congressional staffers who will be out of work in just two months”

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/in-the-loop/wp/2014/11/05/hundreds-of-democrats-to-be-jobless-in-the-great-shellacking-of-2016/

Yeah, right. Every single one of them will be absorbed into and recycled through the Media/Academia Social Justice Industrial Complex™ of joke jobs, as if any of them need jobs anyway, since they all have trust funds like every other Social Justice Warrior.

Also note that the article title says 2014 but the URL string says 2016, do the reall journalists at the Washington Post know something we don’t?

“Financial Advisor”<——— That’s funny. Can you imagine?

States Benefiting Most From Obama’s Health Law Elected Republicans

Arkansas, Kentucky and West Virginia — states that saw substantial drops in the proportion of their residents without insurance — all elected Republican Senate candidates who oppose the Affordable Care Act. Control of the West Virginia state House of Delegates flipped from Democrats to Republicans. And Arkansas elected Republican supermajorities to both houses of its legislature along with a Republican governor, a situation that could imperil the Medicaid expansion that helped more than 200,000 of its poorest residents get health insurance.

That places that benefited most from the law still supported politicians who oppose it should not be a surprise. Republicans were the favorites in many of these races, and polling has shown that health reform had faded as a decisive issue for many voters. Counties that showed the biggest gains in insurance coverage were more likely to be strongly Republican-leaning than Democratic based on their 2012 presidential votes, according to an Upshot analysis of data from Enroll America and Civis Analytics. That pattern appears to have held.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/06/upshot/states-benefiting-most-from-obamas-health-law-elected-republicans.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1

This is an opinion piece titled “Republicans, Meet Science” written by real journalists at the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/05/opinion/frank-bruni-republicans-meet-science.html

And this is a repost of an article titled “Why Republicans Keep Telling Everyone They’re Not Scientists” written by real journalists at the New York Times

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/us/why-republicans-keep-telling-everyone-theyre-not-scientists.html

And now back to your regularly scheduled Drudge Report links

Posted on 11/05/2014

Older Voters Tilt Strongly to GOP in Senate Battleground States

Older voters were a dominant part of the GOP’s nationwide coalition as Republicans took control of the Senate and apparently made a double-digit gain of House seats in the Nov. 4 election. Similar patterns applied in virtually all of the Senate battleground states, according to a national Election Day survey.

Of four broad age groups, voters 65 and older were the strongest supporters of Republican candidates, according to data in the national exit poll conducted by the National Election Pool, a consortium of ABC News, the Associated Press, CBS News, CNN, Fox News and NBC News. The data was shared with many other news organizations.

The nationwide total of nearly 20,000 respondents showed that Republicans led 56 percent to 43 percent among those 65 and older, and 52 percent to 46 percent among those ages 45 to 64. By contrast, Democrats led 55 percent to 43 percent among those 18 to 29, and 51 percent to 47 percent among those 30 to 44.

Similar exit polls were conducted in most states with a competitive campaign for a Senate seat. In at least four states where Republicans took what had been a Democratic-controlled seat, they performed best among the oldest voters.

Of those states, the age disparity was most pronounced in Iowa and North Carolina. Republican Joni Ernst won Iowa over Rep. Bruce Braley by 56 percent to 42 percent among those 65 and older, and 52 percent to 47 percent among those 45 to 64. Ernst lost 43 percent to 54 percent among those 18 to 29, and 48 percent to 49 percent among those 30 to 44. In North Carolina, Republican Thom Tillis’ contest with Sen. Kay Hagan had comparable margins.

http://blog.aarp.org/2014/11/05/older-voters-tilt-strongly-to-gop-in-senate-battleground-states/

“Bribery is an act of giving money or gift giving that alters the behavior of the recipient, where the gift is of a dishonest nature. Bribery constitutes a crime and is defined by Black’s Law Dictionary as the offering, giving, receiving, or soliciting of any item of value to influence the actions of an official or other person in charge of a public or legal duty.”

But the big Romney and Obama donors are not trying to influence public officials?

Question: How are these big, influential donations not subject to bribery laws? I understand that we’re supposed to imagine that it’s a logical construct (corporation) giving money to a logical construct (politician’s shell corporation). But the logical constructs don’t do anything on their own - it’s people giving money to politicians while performing a ritual song and dance designed to absolve them of wrongdoing.

It’s very curious. Goldman Sachs is not a top donor of either of these candidates out of a sense of magnanimity.

Hows our Donald Trump acolytes? Skeeerd? You should be.

Rome lived upon its principal till ruin stared it in the face. Industry is the only true source of wealth, and there was no industry in Rome. By day the Ostia road was crowded with carts and muleteers, carrying to the great city the silks and spices of the East, the marble of Asia Minor, the timber of the Atlas, the grain of Africa and Egypt; and the carts brought out nothing but loads of dung. That was their return cargo.

– The Martyrdom of Man by Winwood Reade (1871)

I see the above version playing out in most towns I visit in the Country

If the decline in the intelligence of the population is illustrated by the sheeple who voted for Obama, McCain, and Romney, the decline in public and private morality and ethics is illustrated by the increasing dishonesty and propensity to steal by American workers. One wonders how much of this thievery is driven by the moral hazard promoted by the Fed, and the brazen larceny and fraud committed with impunity by Wall Street while the DoJ, enforcers, and regulators turn a blind eye. Workers also seem to feel little allegiance or affinity toward corporate employers who treat them like expendable “head count.”

More and more, We the People are mirroring the decline and fall of the empires that have preceeded us, especially in the growing coarseness and baseness of the population.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-workers-are-big-time-thieves-far-worse-than-in-other-countries-2014-11-06

American workers steal from their employers — a lot.

The Global Retail Theft Barometer released Thursday by Checkpoint Systems finds that American employees steal from their employers at significantly higher rates than workers in other countries, with the exception of Argentina. While in most countries shoplifting makes up the bulk of shrinkage (in layman’s terms, shrinkage is the difference between the revenue businesses should have received and the revenue they do receive, and is thanks in large part to losses from shoplifting, employee theft and vendor/supplier fraud), in the U.S., the bulk of shrinkage is due to employees stealing from their employers. Indeed, 43% of shrinkage in the U.S. is due to employee theft (vs. 37% from shoplifting). Globally, it’s just 28% from employee theft (vs. 39% from shoplifting).

I was just perusing the Fannie Mae Credit Supplement for Q3.

The stat that jumped out at me was this:

Florida has 5.6% of FNM’s single family loan guarantees, and 33.7% of their credit losses.

Wow.

FL, IL, and NJ represent 50% of all of FNM’s credit losses.

Double Wow.

California, Florida and Illinois Top List Of Fannie Foreclosure Acquisitions

http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/ir/pdf/quarterly-annual-results/2014/q32014_credit_summary.pdf

I love how the GOP is stating people voted for “change.” Yet they re-elected the same kooks who have done nothing since the Bush era when they had full control to pass what they wanted. I guess “this time is different.” Says McConnell (been there for 30yrs). O did not change the Bush direction, same wars, same QE, same bailouts…. so what is our “new direction?” Are we going to cut taxes and increase the deficit even more? Cut entitlements to people , leave them for corporations? Grow the gov like Reagan?

whats new?

Reagan = tripled the deficit
Bush = Doubled it ( no wars on books)
Clinton = surplus
O = up 95% (wars now on the books)

Know Your Party 101

“I hate debt so much I’m shedding it like it’s going out of style!”

You know it!!

The great public says it all - I am not a big Schiff fan but this memo seems to summarize the angst of America - its disgust with politics, its fear of the future, its anger and on and on. Things are not good on main street folks.

http://www.europac.net/commentaries/its_economy_and_theyre_not_stupid

Lots of talk about politics and the two party monopoly here. But has anybody ever done anything about it?

I did, with a minor party protest campaign against the local hack state legislator.

http://www.ipny.org/littlefield/civicunion2020.html

I didn’t get very far, but I’m proud I tried.

Unless you are in a swing state at the federal level, and a swing district otherwise, your vote on Election Day doesn’t matter. Other actions are required. This week I wrote in my own name for one office where the incumbent hack was unchallenged, and Daffy Duck for another.

Whatever happened to Krusty Perkins?

Walnut Creek, CA Sale Prices Turn Negative on Year; Down 5% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/walnut-creek-ca/home-values/

Two different headlines but the same event; just goes to show how you can spin news

Brussels anti-austerity protest ends in clash

Belgian police have used tear gas and water cannon against violent anti-austerity protesters in central Brussels after a largely peaceful march by about 100,000 workers.

Several vehicles were set ablaze by protesters at the end of the march. They also hurled cobblestones and smoke flares at police in the capital.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-29944648

Brussels burns: Violence erupts in Belgian capital as more than 100,000 protesters clash with riot police during demonstrations against EU austerity measures

Water cannons and tear gas were used in the centre of the Belgium capital as riot police tried to bring the situation under control. Fighting broke out soon after the end of a largely peaceful march organised by trade unions and left wing politicians. ‘Metal barriers were thrown at the police, together with stones, and then the situation rapidly got worse,’ said demonstrator Gilles Broussard. ‘Hundreds of riot police were involved in trying to bring the situation under control - it all got very nasty.’

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/index.html

Region VIII

California Housing Demand Plunges 14% YoY; Demand Craters Every Year Since 2010

http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv

German Bank Charging NEGATIVE Interest to its Customers

Bank charges customers for storing money created by bank

by Simon Black | LewRockwell.com | November 6, 2014

Just three months ago, Mario Draghi (President of the European Central Bank) embarked on his own Quixotic folly by taking certain interest rates into NEGATIVE territory.

Draghi convinced himself that he was saving Europe from disaster. And like Don Quixote, everyone else has had to pay the price for his delusions.

On November 1st, the first European bank has passed along these negative interest rates to its retail customers.

So if you maintain a balance of more than 500,000 euros at Deutsche Skatbank of Germany, you now have the privilege of paying 0.25% per year… to the bank.

Enjoy

Homebuyers’ nightmare: Homeless, in limbo for six months

OAKLAND — When Francisco Nieto and Mirella Rangel sold their house near Mills College this year, they wound up in a limbo of homelessness that’s snagged many move-up buyers in the Bay Area’s overheated real estate market.

For six months, from February to August, they lived like nomads, staying with friends and then hop-scotching from one Airbnb rental to the next while managing the sale of their two-bedroom home and struggling to find a larger one they liked and could afford.

“We were gathering all our clothes and packing the car up every Sunday,” Rangel said. “Everybody had one duffle bag, and there was one duffle bag for Tupperware, olive oil, sugar — everything. We had to carry it with us, in two cars, and move to the next place and do it again the following Sunday.”

Nieto said he and the kids — Sabina, 8, and Lucio, 10 — actually enjoyed their homeless rambling. “I kind of like bouncing around and being nomadic,” he said. Rangel was less enthusiastic.

The family is now happily settling into their 3-bedroom home in the upper Rockridge section of Oakland, purchased for $850,000. They beat out a cash offer by agreeing to let the owners stay in the house for a month while they looked for a home to buy.

“We said, “We’ve been living out of a suitcase for all these months, what’s one more month?’ That is what got us the house,” Nieto said.

Dear HBBers,

Can you guys give me your opinions and check my thought process? You are the only community that I feel I can trust when it comes to real estate.

I’m 32 and I’ve always been a committed renter. I followed HBB and others back in 2007-08, pre-crash and I avoided dooming myself with homeownership. (I did fall for student loan slavery, but that’s another story).

I rent a 2-bedroom apartment with my long-term girlfriend, in a near-downtown area of a 1-million+ midwestern city. We each earn about $50,000. During the 6 years that we’ve lived here, our neighborhood has become extremely desirable. Our rent has gone up from $750 to $1150. (And the cardboard box houses around us are selling for $300,000+.)

Just across the highway is an economically depressed area where rehabbed houses are selling for $60-80,000 and foreclosures are even less. In our analysis, this area is #1 on the city’s priority list to revitalize. The city is diverting tons of money there, has built new infrastructure, and artists have begun moving in.

For the first time, it seems to make economic sense to buy. Our mortgage would be somewhere between $350-$500 a month. I love renting. I love having free landscaping, free maintenance, and a beautiful neighborhood. But it seems that the cost/benefit analysis has clearly shifted to favor buying.

What do you all think? And, if buying makes sense, how can I do it without a realtor?

“Why buy a house at these massively inflated asking prices when you can rent a house for half the monthly cost?”

Exactly. Asking prices are grossly inflated and falling. Buy later after housing prices crater for 65% less.

Wither gold?

Are you ridiculously optimistic about stocks?

phony scandals