We May Have Reached An Affordability Tolerance
The Marin Independent Journal reports from California. “The median price of a single-family home in Marin jumped 9 percent in October, to $977,000 compared with a year ago, while sales edged up 2 percent, according to CoreLogic DataQuick. Condominium sales were down 3 percent, with 62 condos selling compared with 64 in October 2013. The median condo price fell 6 percent, to $462,000. ‘We may have reached an affordability tolerance level for condos,’ said Jill Hill of Coldwell Banker. She was suggesting that condo prices may have gone up so high, the first-time and other low-end buyers who turn to this alternative may no longer be able to afford them. It’s (condos) getting out of the reach of first-time buyers in terms of affordability,’ Hill said.”
“Connie Irwin, a Pacific Union agent, said the market slowed more than usual this summer. ‘I have felt in the last few years, people have started listing their properties earlier to get ahead of the curve,’ said Pickrel. ‘Another trend is that people want houses to be turnkey. People who are buying are young and they work really hard to afford these houses and they don’t have time to fix them up.’”
US News and World Report. “The statistics tell us there aren’t as many young homeowners as there used to be. Thirty-six percent of American homeowners are 35 and younger, the lowest on record since 1982, when the census’s Housing Vacancy Survey began tracking homeownership by age. If you graduated from college and flocked to a big city with a high cost of living, like New York City or Los Angeles, your location may be holding you back from purchasing a house. ‘I’m in my late 20s and haven’t bought, partly because I live in the San Francisco Bay Area,’ says Chad Reid, a director of communications for a marketing firm in Oakland, California. ‘I’m not sure I know anyone under 40 who owns here.’”
The Mercury News. “Real estate agents said they’re seeing the market soften as the holiday season nears. ‘It’s been steadily cooling since the summer,’ said Redfin agent Mia Simon, who covers a pricey part of Silicon Valley, from Redwood City to Los Altos. ‘Homes that were getting 15 to 20 offers in the spring are getting three to five, and some aren’t getting any offers at all.’”
“‘We get less offers and less interest,’ said Abby Wentworth of Redfin, who covers the East Bay communities that front the bay. Although there’s more to chose from, some buyers are deciding to keep renting or stay in the place they already own, she said.”
The Sacramento Business Journal. “Speakers at the North State Building Industry Association’s 2015 forecast event offered generally positive predictions — but also said the past year is a good lesson about being too positive. A resurgence of homebuying in 2013 led many in the industry to think 2014 would be better yet. Instead, said residential housing consultant Greg Paquin of The Gregory Group, new-home sales appears if they’ll be virtually flat compared to last year. ‘What’s really obvious at this point in time is supply is outstripping demand,’ Paquin said.”
The Press Enterprise. “For all the talk of housing shortages, watch for stealth companies that bought distressed property at rock-bottom prices to put their holdings back on the marketplace in 2015. One sign of heightened activity is at our doorstep. Mana Investments Inc., a Carlsbad firm that picked up more than 2,700 lots in various stages of development in California in the downturn, revealed plans recently to sell some of its land holdings.”
“In Riverside County alone, Mana is offering 1,480 lots in Indian Palms and Fiesta de Vida of Indio with values expected to exceed $520 million at build-out. ‘We’ve spent the last two years in investment mode, and now we’re rolling into harvest mode,’ said Mana managing partner Orville Power.”
The Atlantic. “Janeen Milhorn and her husband bought their four-bedroom ranch-style house on a quiet street in this Stockton, California suburb in 2004. Then the recession hit, and building stopped. There were overgrown weeds, beer bottles, shopping carts. Discarded children’s toys and car seats and plastic bags. People from all over town would come to get rid of their old mattresses or party at night. There are hundreds of zombie subdivisions like this one scattered across the country. They’re one of the most visible reminders of the housing boom and bust, planned and paved in the heady days where it seemed that everybody wanted a home in the suburbs, and could afford it, too.”
“‘It’s kind of horrible,’ Milhorn said, standing in her front yard, staring out onto the abandoned development next door, as a man on a motorcycle gunned his engine, speeding in noisy circles around the empty streets.”
‘Foreclosure filings rose across the nation in October, and Inland Southern California was not immune to the spike in activity. There were 3,026 total filings in Riverside and San Bernardino counties in October: From those filings, Inland property owners received 1,114 notices of default, 1,243 advisories of a scheduled auction and 610 letters to take back the house.’
‘Scheduled auctions rose 41 percent from October 2013. Filings from September rose by double-digit percentages in Inland Southern California, Blomquist said, with initial notices of default climbing the most – some 28 percent. It was the biggest monthly increase since November 2011.’
‘Before July, the Inland region had seen 31 consecutive months of declines in foreclosure filings. The first year-over-year increase landed here in July.’
“It’s not this huge tsunami of foreclosures hitting, but it is the releasing of some of the delayed foreclosures that were backed up by the Homeowner’s Bill of Rights,” Blomquist said.’
“It’s not this huge tsunami of foreclosures hitting.”
Doesn’t a tsunami start by gently drawing back all the water first, just before it comes barrelling down?
“… releasing of some of the delayed foreclosures that were backed up by the Homeowner’s Bill of Rights.”
“Homeowner’s Bill of Rights”.
Bahahahahaha … I love that term.
If you replace the word “homeowner’s” with the word “banker’s” then you’ll get close to really understanding just what the term is all about.
Any foreclosures should be worrisome with the massive excess inventory being dumped on the market. Now that speculators and fraudsters like JFraud, etc. are out, half of the demand disappears. Half. It’s toast.
“‘We’ve spent the last two years in investment mode, and now we’re rolling into harvest mode,’ said Mana managing partner Orville Power.”
Bring on the reaping!
Let the housing market hunger games begin. And may the odds be ever in your favor.
“And may the odds be ever in your favor.”
Always. The odds are always in my favor.
Whac,
I think you mean “reaming.”
“Reaping” is a Hunger Games reference, as is “may the odds be ever in your favor.”
‘According to Trulia, a household earning the median income of $54,000 can afford just 22% of homes in L.A. County on 31% of their income or less. Only in San Francisco, at 15%, can fewer middle-class families afford to buy. Six of the seven least-affordable markets in the nation are in California, including San Diego (25%), Orange County (26%) and Ventura County (33%).’
The report found that in the 626 – Pasadena and the San Gabriel Valley – just 11% of median-income-earning households could afford a typical house. In the 310 – the Westside and beach towns – 14% could. In the 213 – Downtown and Central L.A. – that figure was 16% while in 818 and 747 in the San Fernando Valley, it’s 16%.’
‘prices have climbed by roughly one-third in Southern California over the last two years’
Once the tech fraud crashes, Cali is gonna be an ugly place. Wonder how many will start paying taxes for their nannies once they are made legal in the next few weeks?
Want to wager when Apple will announce their first round of lay offs?
They are already doing a pretty good job of destroying their suppliers.
California is more interesting for sure, but the real news is going on in Phoenix. First to pop, first to drop. That market doesn’t have the employment base to support steadily rising house prices. I won’t be surprised if prices there drop 20% in the next two years.
Phoenix is where it’s happening at the moment but the east and west coasts have the most defaulted excess and empty inventory still to be executed on. A 20% decline in any of these locations is real light considering resale asking prices are 300% higher than long term trend and double construction costs (lot, labor, materials and profit).
and Ventura County (33%).’
That high ? Median income $76,483 low interest rates are helping here.
As much as I think the low end of prime beach zip codes are wonderful investments, I also think the inland empire is a horrible place to purchase a home. Purchasing a home in the inland empire is like pouring money down the drain. Those investment firms that rushed and purchased homes in the inland empire will have a tough time selling them. That was stupid. They should have invested in beach cities.
Houses are never “investments”. Houses are depreciating assets that take from your wallet every day you own them.
“Liability”
‘The lowest mortgage rates in 18 months failed to spark the California housing market in October as sales stayed flat and home prices increased at the slowest pace since early 2012, the California Association of Realtors says.’
‘October marked a full year that sales were below the 400,000 level.’
‘According to CAR’s newest housing market indicator measuring sales-to-list price ratio, multiple bid offers for properties has waned, and properties are again generally selling below the list price.’
Also don’t forget that predicted higher interest rates failed to materialize. Of course the absence of rate increases didn’t keep Japan’s property market from crashing over the 1990-2010 period.
Cash only investors have vanished. Only the rich or DumbShi$$ are buying now.
“cash” = “margin loan”
Poor people think leverage is wealth.
It was like that circa 2006 — the only folks we knew who were buying were either trust fund babies or else children of parents who could provide them with six figures’ worth of downpayment assistance.
San Luis Obispo County, CA Sale Prices Turn Negative YoY; 4% QoQ and 3% MoM As Sellers Slash Prices
http://www.zillow.com/san-luis-obispo-county-ca/home-values/
Sacramento FootHills(Citrus Heights), CA Sale Prices Plunge 7% QoQ and 3% MoM As YoY Gains Fall To 0%
http://www.zillow.com/citrus-heights-ca-95610/home-values/
San Diego, CA Sale Prices Plunge 5% YoY; Prices Plummet 9% QoQ and 4% MoM As Foreclosures Resume
http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92130/home-values/
Rocklin(Sacramento Area), CA Sale Prices Plunge 7% QoQ and 4% MoM; YoY Gains Evaporate
http://www.zillow.com/rocklin-ca-95678/home-values/
Here’s the thing with all these falling sale prices everywhere. Even if they weren’t falling, would you subject yourself or anyone you cared about to such a fate? Pay a 250% premium for depreciating asset knowing there is nothing but financial loss there?
What A “Housing Recovery” Actually Is
http://bigpicture.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/01/11/falling20home20prices.gif
Lets get this one out there again as the depth of the decline is substantial and is best described as a collapse.
Naples, FL Sale Prices Turn Negative On Year; Crater 30% QoQ and 6% MoM
http://www.zillow.com/naples-fl/home-values/
Enjoy that warm water from Fukosheema melt down, West coast is a slow boiling cesspool of toxic people, real-estate, politicians, illegals, celebuweirds, gee where do it sign up :)))
“‘It’s kind of horrible,’ Milhorn said, standing in her front yard, staring out onto the abandoned development next door, as a man on a motorcycle gunned his engine, speeding in noisy circles around the empty streets.”
Ahhhhhhhh HA_HA_HA_HAAA!! Been there, done that! Behold…. Savona!
http://www.lttgroup.net/portfolio/Savona/about.php
The most elite, nonsensical and pretentious Orlando development that never was. Bought, built and abandoned on an old automotive salvage yard it still sits empty today, a monument to greed and mania, eagerly awaiting the caress of my KLR-650. When it was still under construction in 2006 the sign out front said, “Lots beginning in the low several-millions”. Who wants to invest?!?
https://www.google.com/maps/place/2899+S+Apopka+Vineland+Rd,+Orlando,+FL+32835/@28.5130336,-81.5084859,790m/data=!3m2!1e3!4b1!4m2!3m1!1s0×88e778a5ba345cd7:0×89adf2eec55f6beb
I should have elaborated: click on the first link and look at the tab for “Savona Site Plan”. Then click on the second link and view the actual building site in ‘Satellite’ mode. The Housing Bubble in both concept and reality.
Sam Zell says today,There are basic demographic changes that are driving demand lower. I see homeownership rates plunging into the fifties.
Sam Zell, major owner and Chairman of the Board of Equity Residential.
Hardly an independent perspective.
Also worth noting that Zell has been a MAJOR seller of EQR over the last 6 months, going from owning 3 million shares to 1.7 million shares since mid-year.
Doesn’t really seem all that consistent with a belief that renting is the wave of the future.
Don’t listen to what Sam Zell says. Watch what Sam Zell does.
Doesn’t much matter. He’s right.
About this too?
‘On the issue of home prices, he thinks the market is largely hitting a sustainable level of growth.
Asked if home prices are getting away from people, he said he didn’t think so.
“I think there has been an overemphasis on these $100 million apartments in New York, of which there are three, and then there’s another two at $70 and they get more ink then all the rest of the apartments in the country, so I don’t really think that is indicative of anything,” Zell told Bartiromo. “I think the real estate market is okay. I don’t think it’s heated up at all, but also I think the issue is demand and a lot of traditional users in real estate are changing their footprints.”’
Link to the video to follow…
http://video.foxbusiness.com/v/3899303558001/zell-the-market-is-benign/#sp=show-clips
Funny, that clip didn’t include the quote from the article.
http://www.okdw.com/2014/11/sam-zell-theres-no-tremendous-demand-for-real-estate/
The article.
Funny the clip has nothing to do with his interview Rental_Fraud.
‘Another trend is that people want houses to be turnkey. People who are buying are young and they work really hard to afford these houses and they don’t have time to fix them up.’”
Connie needs to read the next paragraph down. As young people aren’t buying so who cares how turnkey your crapshack is! Besides they’re working REALLY hard to pay off Sallie Mae to the tune of $100,000.
Obviously posters here want home prices to fall back to the 2009 levels or even lower. The trouble with that scenario is many homes would go back underwater and foreclosures would rise. The accompanying broad economic downturn would cause layoffs and unemployment to soar again. Banks would once again turn off the credit faucet. So, sure, homes at a 40% haircut from today’s levels would be nice but you won’t be able to get a mortgage.
So, your premise is that this is ‘Too big to fail’? Nope, no mortgages. We savers would have to pay cash- pennies on the dollar.
What is it that I want? That’s interesting to think about. But it doesn’t have anything to do with this blog or why I started it. I’m observing what I think is an economic phenomena. Long ago, I mentioned in a comment that the back and forth here and other places on the internet was sort of like a public relations battle. Probably not the best way to put it. One person replied that this blog was meaningless in that regard, because the media is sooo big and loud, and powerful interest decide and we’re all so helpless. There’s something to that I suppose. One of the most powerful things about the internet is the amount of discussion and information that can be spread without censorship. What any one person can gather or conclude about the housing market is what it is. But it is a market, a big market. Subject to market forces. I can’t change that, and neither can Janet Yellen or a Chinese billionaire. If I’m wrong about this being a bubble, I’m wrong. But if I’m right, history shows bubbles collapse. If they collapse, it won’t be determined by me or you or any one person or group of people.
This is just as much an opinion as anything:
‘many homes would go back underwater and foreclosures would rise. The accompanying broad economic downturn would cause layoffs and unemployment to soar again. Banks would once again turn off the credit faucet.’
I don’t know how things might play out. A lot of what you say is probably right. But if these things come to pass it will be because there was a bubble. Prices way too high to be sustained. We talk a lot about why there’s a bubble. I’ve got opinions, but history will determine that, not me. What I do know is this; bubbles are dangerous. Not kinda, sorta, but people sticking guns in their mouths and you-know-what dangerous. Because back in the 80’s, I read stuff like that in the local paper everyday.
So many people I work with are seriously underwater on their houses (50K seems to be the magic number for people who bought BEFORE the bubble height) that I have no regrets about being a lifetime renter. An old high school buddy called me a few years ago and said he was thinking about buying a house as an investment. I referred him to this site. I haven’t heard from him since, but I’m curious to know if he drank the kool aid anyway. When you think about the massive media, advertising, and even family pressure to buy a house, this site is one of the few that actually tells people to think twice about what they may be getting themselves into.
You’re right Ben the market forces are huge and no government/central bank is truly in control. I’m just pointing out that if housing tanks hard the resulting financial vortex might prevent many of us from buying a property at a long-term fair value.
Are we in a bubble today? Cautiously I assert probably not. The classic signature of a bubble is a sharp rise in both price _and_ volume, both of which happened around 2005, 2006. To me this feels more like a bounce that’s overextended on the upside. The volume piece is missing. What no one knows is if these prices will be corrected with a moderate pullback or if there’s another violent leg down. We shall see.
I once called it a bubble interrupted. It doesn’t matter, we’ll know the answer to a lot of these questions soon enough.
Cautiously I assert you have Realtor in the family,
or maybe someone who practices usury.
Realtors are liars.
“prevent many of us from buying a property at a long-term fair value.”
Do you know what you’re talking about? What is “fair value” and what does that have to do with current asking prices of resale housing 300% higher than long term trend?
“Are we in a bubble today? Cautiously I assert probably not.”
Address this in light of the fact that current asking prices of resale housing 300% higher than long term trend.
@HA — Home prices are fairly valued when there’s 6 months supply (neither buyer nor seller’s market) and the median family income can qualify to buy the median priced house. Today in Calif median income is around $57k/year, which typically qualifies for around $250k conventional. Today in many markets the median home price is well above that number.
Even if I accept your 300% overvalued judgment call, today’s market is not likely a bubble. An overpriced or overextended market doesn’t qualify to be a “bubble” in my opinion without mass participation, like we had in 2005-7. Or stock market 1999. Or tulips in 1637. Record high prices on record high volumes. As the stock market analysts would say, today’s RE market feels like a contra-trend rally in a secular bear.
Whether you “accept” the reality that current housing prices are 300% higher than long term trend or 2x construction costs has no bearing on the reality.
And your understanding of a bubble is limited to your opinion, not sound analysis. A bubble is always precipitated by collapsing volume. Always.
Wouldn’t far lower prices not only serve to make homes more affordable for anyone who wanted to buy, but also to bring prices back down to rational levels compared to incomes and rents? I’m thinking prices might eventually return to similar levels to the last time my wife and I bought (mid-1990s), but we are nowhere near that point just yet.
What do governments and banks have against affordable housing?
It’s not a matter of what “I want”. I have no stake in the direction of housing, period. Contrary to many of the others here whose desperation is evident here daily.
Here’s what we know… “The facts on the ground” as it were.
-Current asking prices of resale housing are 300% higher than long term trend
-Current asking prices of resale housing are 2x reproduction costs(lot, labor, materals and profit)
-Current housing demand is at 20 year lows and falling(Sam Zell commented on this today)
-Tens of millions of excess empty and defaulted houses have yet to be disposed of.
-Defaults and delinquencies are rising rapidly on 2009-2013 vintage mortgages
These fundamentals aren’t going to magically disappear irrespective of what you or I would like them to do. The full weight of them are bearing on the economy.
Another recession or global credit crisis and you can multiply the above “bad news”.
“The trouble with that scenario is…”
It’s is an argument for continuation of anything harmful. So, harm is being done, but it is bearable. If we stop, it will be sharply painful and that is not bearable. If we continue, more harm will be done but the eventual pain will not be our fault because we tried our best to continue, though it was harmful.
There is no way out of that blind alley.
“The accompanying broad economic downturn would cause layoffs and unemployment to soar again.”
The NAR called, they want their bullshit back.
WPA might be a good idea though.
NAR is such a hideously corrupt organization. Most of them belong in jail.
Wouldn’t finally that lead to the long-elusive goal of affordable housing? Sellers would have to price to what households could actually afford to pay without Big McGubmint guaranteed subprime mortgage loans to prop up prices.
‘Another trend is that people want houses to be turnkey. People who are buying are young and they work really hard to afford these houses and they don’t have time to fix them up.’”
its why flippers are still in business, many older homes are really “maintenance differed ” or RFU by the old boomers who lived in them for 30 years.
Plenty of people want moderate fixer uppers, I bought one in 1997 and tried again in 2011…but in 2011/2012 it was virtually impossible to buy one with a mortgage where I live (northern Calif. wine country), 100% cash flippers and speculators got every one I bid on over a years time. Locally the flippers and speculators were NOT buying the wrecks that wouldn’t finance anyway, they were buying the places that need moderate repairs and updating, just the sort of place many first time buyers want. The local flippers do a quicky paint job, install cheap appliances, strew LOTS of bark everywhere and then try to resell with a $100-150K markup…no longer affordable for most and the work done is highly suspect.
“Plenty of people want moderate fixer uppers,”
More accurately, people want something affordable. And until affordability returns, nobody wants housing, “fixer upper” or not. This is the very reason why housing demand is cratering.
You got that right. The house next door was flipped in that exact same manner. They actually spray-painted all of the dark brown 1970s hollor-core doors, trim, and particle-board kitchen cabinets white! Talk about lipstick on a pig . . .
But the sad truth is, it worked. A pair of Microsoft Millennials bought it because they wanted to live close to work. They have the disposable income to do whatever upgrades they want to do to the place.
New word for the day: Apoplithorismosphobia
Yeah. Please, please do not throw me in the briar patch.
Oh dear…
‘Growth in China’s vast factory sector stalled in November, with output contracting for the first time in six months, a private survey showed on Thursday, adding to signs that the economy may still be losing traction.’
‘Overall new orders picked up slightly but new export orders slowed markedly, dragging on activity. The factory output sub-index fell to 49.5, the first contraction since May. A cooling property sector, erratic foreign demand and overcapacity have weighed on its manufacturers and the broader economy this year despite a steady stream of stimulus measures.’
“Disinflationary pressures remain strong and the labour market showed further signs of weakening,” said Hongbin Qu, chief China economist at HSBC. “Furthermore, we still see uncertainties in the months ahead from the property market and on the export front. We think more monetary and fiscal easing measures should be deployed.”
With more “oh dears” to come…
This is turning over.
Financial Times
Markets Insight
November 18, 2014 2:24 am
China faces debt crunch as property values fall
Henny Sender
In some ways, China today resembles Japan in the early to mid-nineties or the US in 2007 to 2008 on the eve of their respective financial crises, both triggered by overvalued property. It is not only that property companies are huge borrowers (in the case of China both domestically and in the offshore US dollar high yield bond market), it is that many other borrowers in China can only take out loans if they have property to serve as collateral.
Now the combination of a weak property market and record leverage among Chinese corporates has become one of the major concerns of investors in both Chinese shares and debt. Rising leverage, much of it involuntary as sales and cash flows weaken across a host of sectors, will at some point lead to rising non-performing loans at both banks and non-banks, limiting their ability to provide credit in future. And in the context of China, nobody knows whether that is even a good or bad thing, given the excess capacity in sectors from cement and coal to ships and steel.
Chinese domestic bank loans were just under 100 per cent of gross domestic product in 2008 but by August of this year, they had swelled to 139 per cent of GDP, growing at a 6.7 per cent rate per year – by far the fastest pace of any emerging market, according to data from David Hensley, an economist with JPMorgan in New York. By comparison, the figure for India is 1.2 per cent per year, or a mere 55.6 per cent of GDP. Add in the non-banks and the figure rises to about 200 per cent of GDP.
Moreover, the ability to repay that debt has deteriorated dramatically. The ratio of debt to operating cash flow for Chinese borrowers was 12 times at the end of 2013, according to boutique GMT Research in Hong Kong.
Meanwhile, interest rates are high. The average lending rate in September was 6.97 per cent, and the real, one-year interest rate is now 4.3 per cent – a five-year record. Moreover, the real burden of debt is becoming heavier because of deflation. Upstream producer prices have been in deflationary territory for 32 months now.
Foreign borrowings are also problematic. Chinese companies have become the largest issuers in the US dollar high yield market, having raised over $180bn in US dollar-denominated debt, according to research from Morgan Stanley.
The position of lower rated Chinese borrowers in sectors including property, mining and materials is worse today than it was in 2008 as pricing power vanishes.
“Leverage is at an all-time high (7 times) while interest coverage is at an all-time low,” these analysts conclude. Indeed, many developers who are seeking funds today are proposing structures that involve repaying their debts with more securities since they lack the means to repay in cash.
…
UCA = United Communists of Asia
Last updated: November 19, 2014 5:27 pm
China and Russia in naval co-operation vow
Jamil Anderlini in Beijing
China and Russia have vowed to strengthen bilateral military co-operation and hold joint naval exercises to counter US influence in the Asia-Pacific region as a growing chorus of voices warns of a looming “new cold war”.
During a visit to Beijing where he met his Chinese counterpart and Premier Li Keqiang, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu said the two sides “expressed our concern with the US attempts to reinforce its military political influence in the Asia-Pacific region”, Chinese and Russian state media reported.
“Our co-operation in the military spheres has great potential and the Russian side is ready to develop it across the broadest possible spectrum of areas,” Mr Shoigu added. “We see the formation of a collective regional security system as the primary objective of our joint efforts.”
The Russian delegation also drew a parallel between the current pro-democracy demonstrations in Hong Kong and the so-called “colour revolutions” in former Soviet states, including Ukraine, which China and Russia blame on instigation from the US and its allies.
Anatoly Antonov, Russia’s deputy defence minister, even seemed to suggest Moscow would be willing to help Beijing tackle the peaceful protests in Hong Kong.
“We have taken note of the events that recently took place in Hong Kong and the two ministers acknowledged that not a single country can feel insured against colour revolutions,” Mr Antonov said, according to Russian state media. “We believe that Russia and China should work together to oppose this new challenge to our states’ security.”
…
Would a new Cold War be good or bad for world economic growth? I’d have to guess bad, as heightened military tensions are not conducive for trade flows, and throwing away money on arms races does not increase production of butter (although the arms trade has been referred to as the world’s “Second Oldest Profession”…).