The Runaway Property Boom Looks To Be Over
The Mirror reports from the UK. “Foreign buyers accounted for almost three-quarters of home purchases in central London in 2012, according to a report by one property group, and more than half were snapped up by buyers from Singapore, Hong Kong, China and Malaysia. But many of these high-end homes are bought by wealthy foreign-based investors and left empty. Labour MP Sadiq Khan said: ‘Londoners are being priced out of the housing market by an influx of foreign buyers, who see London property as an investment and in many cases leave properties sitting empty as ‘ghost homes’.”
The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “Senior economist Robin Wiebe, a former analyst at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, says it’s true, Vancouver’s prices are out of whack with personal incomes. Wiebe says the only things that could reverse the escalation of West Coast prices is a significant downturn in China’s economy or a move by Beijing to restrict the ability of its citizens to take money out of the country. The idea of Chinese buyers being in some way responsible for higher housing prices in the city is controversial. Vancouver’s politicians and realtors, fearing a public backlash, have long been downplaying the notion.”
“The cat now appears to be well out of the bag. As Wiebe says, ‘If China’s economy slows, that has the potential to cool Vancouver’s housing demand, stall sales and price growth.’”
The Telegraph on China. “China has abandoned its policy of monetary tightening, cutting interest rates for the first time in over two years to head off a corporate crunch. China is uncomfortably close to deflation, made worse by the plunge in the Japanese yen, and by China’s quasi-peg to the soaring US dollar. The country is importing a contractionary policy at a time when its housing boom is already wilting, with prices down for the last six months.”
“Wei Yao from Societe Generale said bad loans are rising at a clip of 50pc a year. ‘The worst is still to come and banks know it. Chinese banks have doubled their loan loss provisions,’ she said. ‘But the bigger concern lies with state-owned enterprises (SOE). We estimate SOE debt at close to 100pc of GDP, twice as much as private corporate borrowing. Given that banks have always preferred SOEs, a disproportionally large part of banks’ balance sheets is probably locked in to non-performing SOE loans,’ she said.”
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “The heady days of Sydney’s runaway property boom look to be over, with numbers of buyers at open homes and auctions halving in recent weeks. Experts say the flood of listings in November has diluted the number of buyers searching for homes. ‘We’re certainly seeing a waning of house price growth in Sydney,’ said Domain Group’s senior economist, Dr Andrew Wilson. ‘There is no surge in activity in our economy that’s pushing up real incomes to give us the capacity to keep bidding up house prices.’”
The Indian Express. “The weighed average cost of a new apartment in tony South Mumbai has soared to a dizzying high of Rs 7.5 crore, leading to peaking of an inventory pile-up to such an extent in the area that it will take more than eight years for many units to get sold. ‘The kind of pricing of super-luxury residences is unaffordable even to the high-end buyers who are, as it is, minuscule as compared to the spate of launches in the segment,’ said Paras Gundecha, builder and former president of Maharashtra Chamber of Housing Industry.”
Gulf Business on Dubai. “It’s been a year since the Dubai real estate market began to slowdown. Property agent Knight Frank reports the amount invested in Dubai property in the first half of 2014 was less than half that invested in the same months of 2013. However, price falls have been fairly rare until recently. Motivated-sellers, as they are known in the trade, now find that they have to reduce their prices to find buyers in all but the most popular locations.’
“Residential units available for rent or sale hit 192,000, admittedly a figure that multiple listings would net down to a much lower amount. In mid-October, that figure was down but still high at 164,000. It is impossible to estimate exactly how many empty units for rent or sale this now represents. But this could easily be 30 to 40,000 when netted out. There are also around 15,000 units being added annually to this inventory by developers, according to the survey. There has also been a marked deterioration in the economic outlook for Dubai over the summer.”
The Star on Kenya. “Real estate investors’ interest in building and buying bedsitters is increasing because the units offer a fasteer return on investment and higher financial liquidity. High mortgage rates have led to a slowdown in the property market over the last few months as potential home owners delay buying decisions waiting for interest rates and prices to reduce. Consequently, property developers are left with a cash hitch and glut in high-end and middle-income units, prompting them to venture into bedsitters which are easier to sell or rent.”
“While smaller houses always have higher demand, bigger houses can stay empty for months, said Property expert Clifford Mwenda. ‘I have four big housing units that I have been pushing in the market for a while, without success. I attribute it to the prices we have quoted, which are high and cannot be compared to bedsitters,’ he said. ‘As an investor, the bank will never take away your property. You are always liquid, unlike those who spend too much on expensive houses and are unable to sell them,’ he says.”
The Daily Express in Malaysia. “In a project located in Kota Damansara, Selangor when the first block was launched in 2012, all the 400-odd units were sold in less than a week. When the second block was launched, the next 400-odd units took a longer time to sell. The developer has launched the third and final block at about RM1,200 per sq ft but there were only 80 buyers after its launch early this month. Das Gupta the principal of Stocker Roberts & Gupta Sdn Bhd says the lettings market is very weak and this weakness is evident in all sub-segments of the property market.”
“Many of the sectors are ‘flat’ and many buildings – both office buildings and condominiums – are empty. Owners will be forced to reduced rental, he says, referring to the overall property market. He says the paltry capital appreciation was evident since a year ago and he expects the situation to persist one more year, at the minimum. Says Gupta: ‘Never in the last 20 years have I seen so many bungalows in Damansara Heights – one of Kuala Lumpur’s premium residential suburb – up for sale, with owners asking realistic prices.’”
‘China has claimed major success in bringing back hundreds of corrupt officials, who fled abroad with billions of dollars, as it brought back 312 of them from different countries to face trial, including the US where many of them took refuge in the last few decades.’
‘The latest judicial cooperation between China and the US to arrest economic fugitives has made major progress, with more than a dozen suspects brought back from the US to face trial, said Liu Dong, deputy director from the ministry’s economic crimes investigation bureau.’
‘Joint action from the two sides to hunt down the fugitives and confiscate their illegal assets has been positive, Liu said. “Once we provide evidence of the suspects’ economic crimes to our US counterparts for judicial assistance, they will adopt an active attitude to help us with the investigations.”
‘If there is solid evidence that confirms a transfer of ill-gotten funds, they will “take immediate measures to freeze the suspects’ assets including housing, bank savings and other investments in the US and criminally punish them, then issue deportation orders for them”, Liu said.’
If all the Chinese who took money out of the country and bought all-cash real estate investments are suddenly sidelined, what’s to become of their ghost investments abroad?
Don’t hold your breath for “sudden”. There is no extradition treaty with China.
Right , there is no extradition treaty, and the article states that but as the article further states , they can still be deported from here and their assets seized.
I wonder if that’s what’s going to happen to the $100 million piece of property in Woodside that was bought by a Chinese national last year.
I wonder if that’s what’s going to happen to the $100 million piece of property in Woodside that was bought by a Chinese national last year.
It will be silently transferred to a Communist Party big wig.
China wants the money back. I knew of a man in China 10 or so years ago who owed money that he couldn’t pay. The government had his family in jail until he satisfied the debt, so he claimed. He was very enthusiastic about selling his assets in the US.
“I wonder if that’s what’s going to happen to the $100 million piece of property in Woodside that was bought by a Chinese national last year.”
That’s the point of the article. No need to wonder because these criminals are going to face justice.
“the U.S. has become the top destination for Chinese fugitives fleeing the law.” Liao said that there are over 150 “economic fugitives” from China at large in the U.S., mostly corrupt officials. However, China Daily reports that China has only successfully extradited and prosecuted two fugitives in the past 10 years.”
http://thediplomat.com/2014/08/us-top-destination-for-chinas-fugitive-officials/
I’ll believe this is happening when I see the perp walks. Until then it’s just more propaganda.
Sounds like a new assignment for Paladin.
LOL. You’re a real phony Jingle_Fraud.
‘After Ordos in Inner Mongolia, Fangchenggang in the southern part of the Guangxi Zhuang autonomous region is likely become the next Chinese city to witness the bursting of its housing bubble, Chinese media report.’
‘Over the past five years, the area of newly constructed housing units in Fangchenggang reached 8.5 million square meters, including more than 60,000 units totaling 7.3 million square meters having been sold. These figures are in sharp contrast with the city’s small resident population of just 400,000 and its slow natural population growth, which goes up by less than 1% every year.’
‘Official data indicates that most home buyers in the city are non-residents. In 2013, 70% of the home buyers in Fangchenggang were from other parts of China, up from 30% in 2012. The figure even rose to 75% during the first five months of this year.’
‘A business owner in Fangchenggang said the city’s real-estate bubble is largely a result of promotional campaigns launched by property developers in cooperation with brokers. It has become fashionable since 2011 to organize “one-day housing tours” for potential buyers. Other tricks include inflating the price before offering a discount and exaggerating the potential of investment appreciation to attract buyers.’
Fangchenggang - easy one to remember
Sum Ting Wong
I keep waiting for the announcement that the communist Chinese government has ordered millions of rural citizens to move off the farm to spontaneously populate the millions of vacant newly-constructed apartments.
Should we expect such an announcement any day now?
Excellent plan! We’ll call it; ‘The Great Leap Backward’
‘According to property investor Andrew Crossley, the large bulk of foreign property investment — most of which is Chinese — is concentrated in the eastern seaboard of the country, although some foreigners are beginning to extend their search into Western Australia and the Gold Coast.’
‘Many foreign investors are also buying up apartments in the CBD, especially in Melbourne. “They are used to living in small spaces so the smaller CBD apartments are not a problem for them,” says Mr Crossley. “Some of them don’t even rent out the apartments, they are a place to simply put their money.”
‘Star cricketers Michael Clarke and Shane Watson have both called stumps on their glamorous Sutherland Shire homes but are struggling to score top dollar. Clarke and his model wife Kyly have just dropped the asking price on their 1670sq m Lilli Pilli pad to below its 2006 purchase price of $2.87 million.’
Take a look at this beauty:
‘Burnt out St Peters house gets bidders all fired up’
“the house sold for $790,000 - higher than the greater Sydney median house price of $725,000.”
And the purchaser is…Drum role;
Purchaser, Sonia Chen
‘A senior official from the Chinese Banking Regulatory Commission has warned banks have not yet disclosed the full extent of their bad loans and that the bad loans already publicly disclosed are just the tip of the iceberg.’
‘Yu Xuejun, who heads the financial institution supervisory committee, says problems such as overcapacity, the housing bubble and shadow banking are all putting pressure on the country’s banking system, according to Caixin.’
‘Mr Yu blames the government’s massive fiscal stimulus package’
‘A machinery maker, paper producer, manufacturer of faux-wood flooring and textile maker had one thing in common. They had promised, in the event of default, to repay the loans taken on by Xueyuan. Court documents say the fabric company can’t pay what it owes.’
‘With China’s economic growth flagging, businesses such as Xueyuan are foundering. And these chains of guarantees, in which companies back loans to other firms, are causing pain for the wider Chinese economy.’
‘Guarantees played a large role in fueling China’s rapid debt expansion over the last six years. About a quarter of the $13 trillion in total outstanding loans as of the end of October was backed by promises from other companies, individuals and dedicated guarantee companies, often undercapitalized, to pay up if the borrower defaults.’
‘Lenders outside the traditional banking system—so-called shadow bankers—also embraced guarantees…Reliance on these guarantees is now backfiring, regulators and analysts say, resulting in a surge of bad loans that banks had assumed were insured and threatening financial contagion.’
“financial contagion”
I don’t think that word means what you think it means…
It’s not a future threat, the disease is already communicated to the tune of $13 trillion of liar loans. What threatens is the cascading defaults.
I read that their biggest steel producer went tits up last week.
The world is financially screwed.
This pretty much always happens when governments institute command-and-control policies to supplant the function of free markets.
‘Prices may seem sky-high in Vancouver, but economists at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation say there is no overheating or acceleration in the city.’
‘In a Housing Now Canada report released Monday, the CMHC categorized Vancouver as low risk, saying “the level of home prices in Vancouver is supported by local growth in personal disposable income and long-term population growth.”
‘Housing analyst Ben Rabidoux, president of market research firm North Cove Advisors, disagrees with the CMHC’s analysis. “Average resale prices in Vancouver are currently 26 times the average personal disposable income in the city. That is more than double the long term norm and far and away the highest multiple in the country.”
‘Prices may seem sky-high in Vancouver, but economists at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation say there is no overheating or acceleration in the city.’
Boy, there is A SHOCKER! A government housing economist who doesn’t foresee a housing bubble! They have to keep repeating this tripe in the media so that they can later claim plausible deniability- ‘No one could possibly have seen this coming…’
there is no overheating or acceleration in the city
There wasn’t any overheating or acceleration in the U.S. in late 2006 either.
“economists at the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation say there is no overheating or acceleration in the city”
When one’s field of “scientific” endeavor is known for vagueness and for getting virtually every prediction wrong, so much so that no one is ever held to account for their pathetically erroneous past predictions -
“Scientific” opinion is then for sale to the highest bidder. Mega-corporation, private foundation, government grant money, makes no difference. Follow the money.
Get what you can get for your house and then get to work paying off the difference. It’s all up hill in both directions for anyone that bought a house in the last 15 years.
‘Bank of Japan chief Haruhiko Kuroda urged business leaders to use profits more productively, saying hoarding cash will become costly as the central bank stamps out deflation.’
‘The BOJ will continue to spur price gains, adjusting its unprecedented easing policy as needed to achieve its inflation goal, he said.’
‘Japanese companies are headed toward their highest profits ever as a weaker yen resulting from the BOJ’s stimulus boosts Toyota Motor Corp. and other exporters. Japan Inc. holds near-record cash while capital spending in the second quarter was more than 50 percent lower than a peak in the first three months of 2007.’
‘Falling prices over two decades of stagnation made holding cash a viable option for companies looking for safety and real returns on capital. The BOJ has been making steady progress in shaking a “deflationary mindset,” Kuroda said.’
‘Many people who bought homes in Canada in the past decade have profited from rising house prices. But home prices sometimes fall, says Paul Anglin, a real estate professor from the University of Guelph.’
“Most people get excited about the rising part,” he says. “They forget about the falling part.”
‘Fresh in the minds of many is the 2008 U.S. housing market crash. Markets have crashed in Canada, too. For example, from 1990 to 1996, prices dropped every year in Toronto. Both The Bank of Canada and Moody’s have warned recently that a crash could happen again in Canada, especially if the economy slows down.’
If you don’t crystallize the profit by closing a sale, it doesn’t matter.
‘…a crash could happen again in Canada, especially if the economy slows down.’
No need to worry about that scenario ever again, as central bankers will print and stimulate until the cows come home rather than ever allowing another recession to occur.
‘For those who have been sticking their fingers in their ears, thinking the property bubble in Iskandar Malaysia is about to burst soon, a recent announcement may make them to take the fingers out. Or is it too soon to heave a sigh of relief?’
‘Dato’ Sri Najib Tun Razak announced that Iskandar Malaysia has attracted new investments worth a hefty RM25 billion (US$7.5 billion) since January this year. The Prime Minister who is also the Finance Minister says in his facebook entry on Thursday (Nov 6): “In committed investments alone, the economic zone in Johor has secured RM156.51 billion (US$47 billion) since 2006, of which 51 per cent or RM79.17 billion (US$23.8 billion) has been realised to date.”
‘There is an oversupply of apartments and retail units in hotspots such as Nusajaya-Medini and Danga Bay areas and this may cause a decline in property values over the medium term. “Malaysian developers are scaling back/slowing down on their new launches in hotspots and are shifting their focus to landed / industrial properties due to rising competition in the high-rise integrated property segment,” says the report dated October 3. “We remain cautious over the increasingly crowded developments space in Iskandar Malaysia.”
‘This report came weeks after UEM Sunrise, one of the biggest property developers in the country and land owners in Johor, announced that the company would reduce its land bank in Iskandar by swapping its land to reduce dependency on development there.’
‘Many see this as signs that there is an oversupply, a case of every major developer rushing to build properties in Iskandar and only now realise there is a dwindling demand. What would allay fears is to put a moratorium on properties that are experiencing a slowing down in demand. Which may not be easy judging from the volume of investments that have been pouring in.’
‘Datuk Nur Jazlan Mohamed, who is the MP for the Pulai which houses a part of Iskandar, feels that the slowing down in property purchase is temporary. He said in a recent report: “What we are seeing now is a plateau. It is the consolidation period of the local economy as it balances out between supply and demand.”
‘The first Chinese interest-rate cut in more than two years is a stark recognition that the world’s second-biggest economy is in trouble. While today’s benchmark rate cut should help stabilize growth, the move also adds to worries about looser credit that could pose risks to the global economy. Case in point: mortgages.’
‘Take the experience of South Korea after the 1997 Asian crisis. With regulatory tweaks and a variety of ill-fated incentives, Seoul effectively shifted the nation’s debt burden from government to families. By the early 2000s, fresh headwinds were intensifying; in April 2004, one in 13 Koreans was three months or more behind on debt payments. Of Korea, Choyleva says, “all it has to show for its efforts are the mess left by a burst household-debt bubble and an economy even more dependent on exports.”
‘For all the grand talk of reining in state-owned enterprises and the shadow banking system and tolerating a “new normal” of slowing growth, Beijing remains intent on getting as close as possible to this year’s 7.5 percent GDP growth target. With Moody’s and S&P watching, and prominent economists like Larry Summers arguing that China could soon slow to 4 percent growth, officialdom is looking for covert stabilizers. Among them: securitization.’
‘If you live in a country or coastal town, or smaller capital city, then you probably missed the current housing boom. And if you live anywhere other than Sydney and Melbourne, you almost certainly missed out on the burst of double-digit price growth.’
‘This week Reserve Bank governor Glenn Stevens flagged that interest rates would be low for some time to come.’
‘Given the cash rate — and mortgage rates — are at depths not seen before, shouldn’t Brisbane, Perth, Darwin and other centres see housing prices starting to surge? Softer economic conditions and the waning mining sector have weighed on these markets, which could skip a cycle if analysts’ predictions of a rise in interest rates mid to later next year come true.’
‘Whether you live in Sydney, Hobart or Tamworth, many Australians’ wealth is tied to homes. Ratings agency Moody’s yesterday released a report that found housing made up 55 per cent of Australian household wealth, double that of the US.’
‘A sharp downturn in house prices would likely push the Australian economy into recession, Moody’s said. While this is unlikely, many areas may have to wait until the next property cycle to feel the wealth halo created in the nation’s two biggest cities.’
Since central bankers worldwide have locked arms in the battle against deflation, won’t they follow by providing a guarantee that asset prices can only increase, as price declines could encourage a deflation mentality? It seems like households would best respond by purchasing as many risk and real assets as possible.
My fellow Americans; We face the biggest danger to life as we know it in the form of falling prices. The price of necessities such as food and energy to heat your home are falling so far that almost everyone can afford them. I swear to you that we, together with the Wall Street banks, will fight this threat to our security tirelessly until we can safely say that all these things are once again unaffordable.
Remember, it’s for the children!
Is your bullish sentiment off the charts?
The Technical Indicator
Strong bull trend reaches uncharted territory
Published: Nov 25, 2014 11:50 a.m. ET
By Michael Ashbaugh
Technicals columnist
CINCINNATI (MarketWatch) — True to seasonal form, November has been a strong month for the U.S. markets.
The S&P 500 and the Dow industrials have taken flight, reaching uncharted territory, while the small- and mid-cap benchmarks have come to life technically.
…
‘In this city of 1.8 million people near the Russian border, hulking factories are collecting dust, and restaurants sit empty in a landscape of half-completed building projects, idled cranes and closed businesses.’
“I haven’t been paid in three months,” said Hao Xumei, a coal washer who has worked for 30 of her 47 years at Jixi’s Dongshan mine, as the smell of sulphur hung in the air. “I don’t want my children to grow up and do this kind of work here.”
‘Coal-mining centres like Jixi and other resource-dependent cities have been hit particularly hard by the slowdown, from steel-dependent Tangshan near Beijing to iron-ore-rich Linfen in central China and across large parts of the northeast.’
“The issue for Jixi and a lot of similar places is a very unbalanced, undiversified economy” often tied to natural resources, said China research director Andrew Batson with Gavekal Dragonomics. Wide swathes of the country are in similar straits, he said: “If resources are in recession, you’re in recession and there’s no easy way out.”
‘The companies that were the city’s strength are now weighed down by excess capacity and dated technology. The state-owned Heilongjiang LongMay Mining Holding Group Co., which employs 266,000 workers across the province, is one of the city’s biggest employers with 13 of its 44 mines in the Jixi area. LongMay reported a first-half 3.3 billion yuan loss, nearly double its 1.8 billion yuan loss the previous year.’
‘Investment has slowed to a trickle, and businesses from luxury-goods sellers to noodle dives feel the pinch. In Jixi, investments in factories, buildings and other fixed assets declined 30.5 per cent over the 12 months ending in August compared with the year before.’
‘Heilongjiang has rolled out subsidized loans for large state companies and irrigation and low-income housing projects in a bid to stimulate growth. Many are recycled from recent provincial industrial reform initiatives, raising questions about how effective they’ll be in jumpstarting near-term growth.’
‘Jixi Beifang Zhigang Co. Ltd. steel plant said they would like government support. Beifang produced reinforcement bars for the building industry until it closed last year, laying off 3,000 people. Now they farm beans on the lawn in between company dormitories, which are pasted with dozens of notices for apartments for sale.’
‘In a lonely property showroom along a road of unfinished building projects, sales agent Han Xueru with Jixi Huachen Development Co. said sometimes a month goes by without a sale. Ms. Han said that over 40 Jixi developers are trying to sell houses in the declining market and that her relative lost 900,000 yuan when one developer fled. “Few projects are selling and more developers are close to running away,” she said.’
Come on now people, Dan from New Mexico says all you gotta do is move to the big city and buy one of those empty air boxes. I don’t know what you’ll do for money or food, but he sure was certain China would never stumble.
Its not like you to Block somebody into the blog Ben so I suppose Dan disappeared on his own…Which, by default he is admitting he was wrong on the China call…
‘Now they farm beans on the lawn in between company dormitories, which are pasted with dozens of notices for apartments for sale’
Fear not comrades, an interest rate cut will save you all!
“beans”
Must be part of that 7% growth they are experiencing.
It’s beans alright…an entire hill of them!
China experiences a different kind of building boom:
Exploding Excrement Topples Building in China
More on this story: A Mr. Da Xian was in charge of methane security for that neighborhood. Mr. Da, however, has epilepsy & had just a seizure when that fire was started. So when the fit hit Da Xian, it was all over!
“…when the fit hit Da Xian…”
A+++
No sh!t!
“Get what you can get for your house and then get to work paying off the difference. It’s all up hill in both directions for anyone that bought a house in the last 15 years.”
Most are to selfish to pay off responsibility. If someone is left with a difference they either walk away or short sell leaving the responsible to pick up the tab.
This via Ritholz - dynamic tool from 2000 to current
http://datatools.urban.org/Features/mortgages-by-race/#10/39.6607/-104.9572
The pimp publishes.
The housing market is starting to collapse again. Here’s some fact vs. fiction:
http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/the-housing-market-fact-vs-fiction/
Good job. Interesting how NAR will flat out lie to the public about housing demand.