The Housing Bubble

“Syndicate?”

Another word that has been bad-mouthed. Wiki says:

“A syndicate is a self-organizing group of individuals, companies, corporations or entities formed to transact some specific business, to pursue or promote a shared interest. In most cases formed groups aim to scale up their profits. Although there are many legal syndicates formed around the world, the usage of the term “the syndicate” in colloquial English often refers to one involved in illegal activities.”

Guild?

But be a guild that is not one of the top 14/20 top all time money bribers of politicians - like other unions are.

Stay out of pro gun control groups and pro amnesty groups.

How about a tech worker’s party (analogous to the Democratic and Republican parties which some of our esteemed posters apparently represent)?

Syndicate?

The Spanish word for Union is “sindicato”

Most tech workers move from place to place on a whim. It’s not just a matter of pay or work environment, although those are very important. Equally important is that the nature of the tech platforms in use within that organization are current with the trends, and of enough interest to the techies.

What exactly would a bargaining unit attempt to accomplish in that kind of environment?

Thanks. But no thanks. I don’t want a union. Unions suck

“Unions suck”

I confess to a similar sentiment, though I have been a card-carrying union member for upwards of three decades (American Federation of Musicians).

I agree, but OTOH I have worked at several companies (non-union) where the employees were treated so poorly that I half-wished that there was a union.

These days? Uber, airbnb, spotify, and the like. Uber is apparently getting ready to sell shares that would value the company at $40 Bil. This is just one example… the point is, the smart people can figure out which companies are likely to blow up, take over their sector, and provide big time cash out potential.

That’s a lot of companies! I guess they’ve vacuumed up all the good people…Or maybe it’s like Scored by CBO says: less than 1% are gonna get in on a ride. I don’t blame them one bit for these folks who think they’re gonna make it big, but to imply we don’t have something good to offer or that we somehow suck because we’re in the suburbs is ignorant and arrogant.

Right, Down Low Joe?

“Hipster doofuses” used to want to work at google, apple, facebook, LinkedIn, vimeo, tumblr, etc.

These days? Uber, airbnb, spotify, and the like. Uber is apparently getting ready to sell shares that would value the company at $40 Bil. This is just one example… the point is, the smart people can figure out which companies are likely to blow up, take over their sector, and provide big time cash out potential.

The way that people are addicted to their cellphones, I would think that Apple would still be considered to be cool. You also forget that some engineers have an interest in the technical work, not just making money. So if someone wanted to work in microprocessor design, there would probably be no better place to work than Intel, a big, old company.

LOL @ the really talented people wanting to work as a regular employee at some suburban sh*thole.

You know, regarding you disdain for the suburbs, I’m sure that there are plenty of people in NYC who think that you’re a loser for living in a medium-sized city like Baltimore.

To be fair, he never said he’s not a loser.

“Big ten/random state school grads”

Hey snob

No man really aspires to work for someone else.

Aint that the truth! Can’t blame them chasing the next big ipo. Take your money and run like I did. But the sad truth is only a very small minority (less than 1% even that’s generous) will hit the jackpot and the rest will still bounce around “hot companies” rest of their lives as a product or project manager at well below their talent level. Sucks to be them.

Haven’t worked for the man except for some consulting gigs last 10 years. Never been happier.

At least he’s stopped saying “rando.”

“No man really aspires to work for someone else.”

In my case, the way I have it now, I LOVE working for someone else - this “someone else” being a large corporation.

I’m sort of “taken care of”. This wasn’t always the case (and may not continue to be the case) but right now I am in the position of “having it made”.

The dynamics of where I work are such:

1. Six Sigma has entered the scene and is the ultimate driving force of how the company operates, which means …

2. The management (at all levels) is responsible for meeting the objectives (the numbers) set up by the nameless, faceless all-knowing Six Sigma gurus, and management seeks to meet these responsibilities via the use of …

3. The non-management worker bees (of which I am one).

Which means the management (at all levels) has the RESPONSIBILITY but not the capability to meet numbers while the non-management worker-bees have the CAPABILITY but not the responsibility to meet these numbers.

But these numbers CANNOT be met WITHOUT CHEATING, which means that management has to cheat and has to convince the non-management folks that we, too, have to cheat, and this means that power has shifted - drastically shifted - from the clutches of management to the clutches of non-management.

IOW, we low level non-management worker bees have the power to use AT OUR WHIM OR AT OUR CONVIENCE the power to make or break the folks who supposedly rule over us. All we have to do to exercise this power is to display a wee bit of honesty when we turn in our numbers.

Six Sigma truly sucks but in some areas it works quite well (snort).

The organic forces from which a lot of six sigma grew (i.e. manufacturing floor SPC implementation) are powerful quality and productivity tools. As a techie, they’re also quite fascinating. Then it became a management cliche and ever since has been dying a slow and agonizing death.

Because we non-management folks have the power to make-or-break out supervisors we can - and have- run off managers who we do not like and have kept the managers who we do like.

Stated a bit differently, the lower level managers - at root - do not have to meet the criteria set up by their superiors, no, instead they have to meet the criteria set up by the folks they are supposed to be managing.

Sounds like the workers have taken control. Lenin would have liked Six Sigma.

I know someone studying Six Sigma. Can someone explain what it is and what is wrong with it?

“Sounds like the workers have taken control.”

The workers haven’t TAKEN control; Control was HANDED OVER to the workers by the stupid policies generated by the Six Sigma folks.

The irony is: These stupid Six Sigma policies were, in part, designed to shape-up-or-ship-out “the slackers”, but the slackers quickly learned the system and learned how to play the system.

Reminds me of a quote:

“Never underestimate the poser of incentives.” - Charlie Munger

Power of incentives, never underestimate the power of incentives.

Six Sigma is about process improvement. Find out where the defects in your product are coming from and then try to make it so that you only get a defective item 6 standard deviations out from average. Measure stuff and improve. Think of the bell curve and you’re defects are way out in the tails.

It’s been totally monetized by likening it to karate. There are Six Sigma yellow belts, green belts, black belts, etc. The concept is sound for manufacturing, but lots of people try to stretch it into places it doesn’t belong.

And here I thought Six Sigma was going the way of the dinosaur for the next rage, whatever it is.

In my case, the case with the company I work for, Six Sigma are structured groups that is set up in parallel to the existing management structure and these groups are granted enormous amounts of power. The purpose of these parallel groups are to grab hold of existing processes - of existing jobs and procedures - and “improve” them - to make them better, make them “more efficient”.

Keep in mind that the people that populate these groups for the most part have never - never ever - done the job they are improving but nevertheless they are given ABSOLUTE AUTHORITY over others to have their decisions - their edicts - followed TO THE LETTER.

Also keep in mind that the existence of these Six Sigma groups is to forever - FOREVER - grab hold of these processes and to forever - FOREVER - improve them because THIS IS WHAT THEY DO! and if they were ever to stop doing what they do then their existence would no longer be necessary. And if their existence is no longer necessary then they will have to go out and look for another job.

And the primary way of measuring whether or not a process is improved or not is via the use of numbers, which means that if the numbers say something is so then it is so.

The numbers express reality in the Six Sigma world and because the Six Sigma world has been granted total control over processes and procedures the real world, as reported by these numbers, becomes distorted to fit the criteria set up by the Six Sigma groups. Which means if the expected numbers do not materialize then the problem must lie with the IMPLEMENTATION of the new process and not at all with the new process itself.

So the numbers are cooked so the criteria of the new processes will be met because there are severe penalties for falling short of the numbers. And since the criteria of the new processes appear to be met, as reported by these cooked-up numbers, the positions of the Six Sigma groups are strengthened.

To add a little bit color to what Michael Viking and Combotechie said above…

From the subject of ‘Statistics’, standard deviation has the symbol σ (sigma). For a normal distribution i.e. a bell shaped curve, about 99.73% of all values fall within ±3σ of the mean value in the distribution. So, say if a 10000 parts are made with a controlled process/ procedure - to conform to the normal distribution curve (automobile industry, food packaging, clothing etc.) about 27 parts should be defective (.27% of 10000).

Here is wrong with it:
1. The idea will benefit if people know what they are doing. In other words this is not a one size fit all procedure. To make it work, people that know the product or process need to spend time really looking at the issues that cause the defects.
2. A lot of these Black belts (CIP- continuous improvement process terminology) neither have the background nor the competency/ability to understand the process that they are trying to improve. The end result is that a lot of productive people get over burdened with irrelevant procedural nonsense. In the end making things worse. IMO, it is really a wonder how things still get done.
3. Executives of corporate America are actively promoting this, IMO, to hide their own competency issues and as a distraction to share holders (like any other ploy) promising that things will improve etc. The unfortunate thing about this is that it is like the bureaucracy of a third world country, which will thwart the strongest spirits that really want to improve things.

“Six Sigma” sounds like a trendy business cliche based on the observation that the full range of values (i.e. 997/1000) on a normal distribution lie within +/-3σ of μ, where μ (”mu”) is the mean and σ (”sigma”) is the standard deviation of the distribution. Managers being the kind of folks they are, I’m sure the goal is to get production up to the μ + 3σ (”above Six Sigma”) level or higher in all periods, which is statistically impossible. And that’s where the falsification of results comes in. Like the children of Lake Wobegon, all Six Sigma performance is above average.

How am I doing with my made-up explanation?

“Never underestimate the poser of incentives.”

Excellent Freudian slip!

Six sigma in the world I operate in - architecture and engineering is called “LEAN” - sadly the world of builders have hitched their wagon to this and it will be interesting in a few years to see where this ends up. My sense - the whole thing is nothing more than a scheme to centralize a process that is not conducive to said centralizing process planning.

I just shake my head anymore.

Reading all this, I’m so glad I’m retired!!!

If you work for Just Call Me Jacks 6-SmegmaLand, you’re not doing any A&E.

“I’m so glad I’m retired!!!”

But you are missing out on all the fun!

If you think of terms of helping to make it all work then you just may go a bit go nuts. But if you think of it all in terms of surrender and in terms of popping up a batch of popcorn and watching it all unfold (and implode) then it can become quite interesting … and amusing.

I am doing six sigma training now. Six sigma groups are supposed to hand the processes off when they’re done with them. They are also not supposed to improve for the sake of improvement. It should only be for the sake of higher profits. However, I can see where that would get manipulated with fake numbers and such.

Six Sigma, the short version:

You go to the grocery store.
You impulse buy.
You get to checkout and you flinch at how much the total bill was.
On the way out the car, you try to figure out how to spend less.
Finally, you say — “well, I’ll just look at the receipt, identify the most expensive items, and not buy those things next time.”

Congratulations, you’re a six-sigma (lean) Black Belt.

Sample company that started using Six Sigma in 2001: Circuit City.

“Six Sigma is about process improvement. Find out where the defects in your product are coming from and then try to make it so that you only get a defective item 6 standard deviations out from average. Measure stuff and improve. Think of the bell curve and you’re defects are way out in the tails.”

That was exactly the intent of SickSmegma by Jack Welch. Spot on.

“LEAN”

I don’t know how LEAN relates to architecture, but LEAN is gonna cause a lot of problems some day. You heard it hear first.

Back in the day when a store’s shelf ran out of X, they went in to their back room and grabbed some more X. Now it’s supposed to magically appear by truck right when they need it. It won’t take much to upset that balance and when it does there will be a lot of bare shelves and unhappy, hungry people.

“Six sigma groups are supposed to hand the processes off when they’re done with them. They are also not supposed to improve for the sake of improvement.”

Okay, so what happens to the Six Sigma groups after they are done with improving all the processes? What are they used for then?

There is a built-in incentive for the Six Sigma folks to keep on Six Sigmating. If they ever make themselves become obsolete then they will be shown the door.

” What are they used for then?”

Unless the Six Sigmas were hired temporarily as consultants, I’d say your company was training an entirely new management team.

An anecdote taken from where I work:

It used to be the Marketing folks held sway because it used to be considered that the revenue flowed into the company from customers. Strange thinking but this is how it used to be.

Then … enter Six Sigma. Now Marketing does not hold sway, it is Six Sigma that holds sway. If Marketing has a problem doing what they do (which is bring money into the company) and what they do collides with what the Six Sigma folks want to be done then it is Marketing that will have to yield.

Note: Six Sigma does not control Marketing, but Six Sigma does control what Marketing wants to happen - it controls what Marketing wants to happen by placing roadblocks in the way of getting done what needs to be done in order to satisfy the needs of the customer. In other words, the needs of Six Sigma moves ahead of the needs of the customer.

“I’d say your company was training an entirely new management team.”

That’s what they are doing. But this new management team manages by edict; They dream up plans and schemes and force these dreamed up plans on schemes onto the already-in-place managers for them to implement.

This needs repeating: The people who dream up the new plans and schemes are not the same people who are held accountable for the results

And feedback on the success of these new plans and schemes are represented by numbers - those who report good numbers get to stay and those who report bad numbers get replaced, and hence the only numbers that get passed up the line are good numbers.

And since the only numbers that get passed up the line are good numbers the Six Sigma folks are able to use these good numbers to validate whatever it is that they are doing.

I would say that your existing management team is getting snowed. Six Sigmaticians are supposed to have real jobs outside of six sigma. I am doing quality assurance and regulatory affairs, so I should use six sigma as a process. I should not use six sigma as a trade.

I’ll bet a lot of six sigmaticians snow management that way.

In the company I work for: The Six Sigma Black Belts on up, all they do is Six Sigma.

Six sigma reared it’s head at a tech company I worked for in 1990. Can you say 3.4 defects per million lines of code as the main goal?!?!

“Six Sigmaticians are supposed to have real jobs outside of six sigma.”

Go here:

http://www.isixsigma.com/new-to-six-sigma/roles-responsibilities/top-ten-six-sigma-black-belt-candidate-qualities/

Some excerpts:

“Six Sigma Black Belts are most often referred to as change agents, and there is no doubt that the Black Belt role is a leadership position within an organization (please note that I intentionally did not say “within the quality department or Six Sigma organization”). Black Belts are full-time Six Sigma project team leaders responsible for implementing process improvement projects (DMAIC [Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve, Control] or DFSS [Design for Six Sigma]) within the business.”

Note the term “full-time”.

“Black Belts are knowledgeable and highly skilled in the use of the Six Sigma methodologies and tools, as well as facilitation and change management, and lead subject matter experts to increase customer satisfaction levels and business productivity.”

… for jobs they themselves have never worked at.

“Black Belts have typically completed four weeks of Six Sigma training, and have demonstrated mastery of the subject matter through the completion of project(s) and an exam. Black Belts coach Green Belts and receive coaching and support from Master Black Belts. It is generally expected that a Black Belt will move into a Master Black Belt or significant business role after the Black Belt assignment is completed in 18 months to three years.”

Wow, four weeks of Six Sigma training and now they are ready (and, oh,, so willing!) to tell everyone else in the company how to do their jobs.

Thanks for all the enlightenment on Sick Smegma.

Don’t worry you will have the last laugh when the social media $shitbubble comes to an end.

Yes, I expect this kind of response from my liberal better.

I’m not sure why you use the term liberal better there. I was talking about markets, supply and demand, and so forth. These are things that conservative say that they favor.

I agree that if we had 10 beers on tap, free massages, yoga classes, etc. and offered people 200K/year we could get all we wanted the people we wanted.

It wasn’t about salary and benefits.

This two sentences contradict each other. What you’re saying is that you would get plenty of interest if you offered 200k and excellent benefits. Your employer just doesn’t want to pay that much. That’s not a shortage.

In economics there’s a term called psychic income, which refers to the nonmonetary benefits that employees get, such as being able to tell people that they work at hip new company. Employers that can provide that psychic income can get away with pay less ordinary income.

Living debt free means you’re free to leave the man whenever you want. Start your own business whenever you want. You answer to no one.

“Big ten/random state school grads”

Hey snob

Joe’s role in the world. It’s not the tent regardless all the BS you hear from him.

http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2014/11-overflow/20141123_world.jpg

Living debt free means you’re free to leave the man whenever you want. Start your own business whenever you want.</i?

It’s not as simple as that, but whatever….

I’ll take the beer and the money. You can keep the massages and yoga classes!

It’s a passive aggressive way of making you work longer hours. Sucks to be the sheeple who really don’t get this concept and fall for free gourmet dinners and other so called perks. They will never leave the building, write more code and make some jack@ss even richer.

I know several people managing in some of these hipster places and they’re quite frustrated because in fact the kids aren’t working harder or longer hours. They’re milking the system. They have the classic entitlement attitude mentioned on this blog so many times.

In short, from what I hear the free gourmet dinners, etc. aren’t working in terms of getting more work hours.

They’re milking the system. They have the classic entitlement attitude mentioned on this blog so many times.

And these people have no unions - at least in the traditional sense. So they must be either smart enough to realize that their employer wants them to work longer or that they were not the correct hires vis-à-vis their ability/skills.

In one sense the younger generation is screwed just like Japan, in that they are not participating in the economy or cannot participate due lack of skills/ opportunity. One thing I am sure of is that any millennial who takes the time to attain some skills and becomes good at it will have the pick of jobs and salary.

They don’t participate because of lack of skills/opportunity, but if they get the skills they will have their pick of jobs? I don’t get it, if lack of opportunity (jobs) is part of the problem..

Six figures is beginning or average for a senior engineer.

Six figures is beginning or average for a senior engineer.

Six figures is the cost of an average house, too. I guess 7 figures is the beginning or average for a master engineer? You realize that 6 figures goes all the way from 100,000 to 999,999? What is your point?

There are plenty of places where senior engineers are still quite happy working in the $60-$90K range. Of course these are places where the average housing price is about 1/3 of the average price in CA overall, about 1/8 the price of silicon valley.

Not all engineers work in the virtual realm. A lot of us work where physical stuff still gets made.

MV:

You are the one who threw the 6-figure number out as evidence that the pay is plenty high, so don’t get snippety with the rest of us. A senior engineer doesn’t get excited over the prospect of earning “six figures”. They most likely already earn that much, especially if they’re above average.

Read the other comments. You’re not exactly winning.

“Winning”?

Thanks for disclosing your motive Donk.

LOL. Because it’s all about winning.

The more cloistered the existence, the more smug the attitudes, for sure.

If you’re willing to pay in the top 10%, why are there no takers?

I guess when we’re willing to pay in the highest-paid 10 percent we’re just not paying marketable wages?? If only you people knew half of what you thought you did. Funny how you act like you know it all and you actually know nothing. The only facts you know about me and my company are what I tell you.

Yes, we’re all commenting on what you’ve told us. We’re not introducing new information, just applying logic to your statements. If your employer could get all of the engineers that it wants by paying $200k plus beer and massages, then the market level of compensation must be somewhere between whatever they’re offering and $200k plus beer and massages. It’s pretty simple.

It’s pretty simple.

It is that simple Mighty Mike. And using the same logic go out and buy a nice starter house for 500K. It’s worth it, too! It’s pretty simple.

You’re making a separate point there, though it’s a valid one. Your employer could determine that the market rate is more than they’re willing to pay, or more than they can afford. At that point they could give up on their plan hire any software engineers. That could be a sensible decision for them. That situation still does not represent a shortage.

Total taxes (in-town) are usually around 3%, so the house for sale at $166K is probably on the tax rolls as worth $300,000. Taxes reset after a sale, so will probably be $4,500.

Being old and feebleminded is no excuse for talking out of you’re a$$

for talking out of you’re a$$ ??

Which several do here day-in & day-out…

RE taxes are about 3% in my county. I looked up the Jamesville-Dewitt school district and it is 4.4%, less whatever the STAR exemption works out to. I stand corrected on that detail, but not wrong in principle, and certainly not bested by an inexperienced, confused, ill-mannered blowhard. If you could have done the math, you would have.

I posted the facts dude. Look at the facts not your imaginary could be should be nonsense. Show me a home in Manlius NY with taxes of $4500. I have provided the real estate website above?

I already said I was wrong about the tax rate, by a point. If you could do math you would guess that the $500 is therefore a little low and the $300,000 high. Your house is assessed at $220,000 and the actual tax rate for 2013 was 4.1%. Please do tell us what the tax bill would be on this beauty if it sells for 10% off list? Is it $10,000 as your “facts” pretend? Get help with the math, we don’t mind.

the $4500 is therefore a little low

Introducing a math exercise sure seems to be a conversation stopper.

Funny…..and sad.

“To pay for insane public union pensions.”

Truth

“Most voters are typical debt donkeys. They think anything that can be bought by borrowing is like free.”

Truth.

It’s all about the greed. Can’t afford it? So what. I want it anyways. FU.

+1000

“Cool toys for teachers.”

The lion’s share of property tax receipts go to the local K12 schools and the “court-jail-lawyers-police” system. The remaining crumbs repair your roads and sewers if the planets align.

The second most common answer was that the government has in the past lied to them about almost everything and it always ended up costing them more money for no good reason.

The third most common answer is that the solution to ANY problem or crisis is bigger and bigger government, more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.

And maybe to ban something.

So the top three reasons are all irrational.

How is 2banana’s answer irrational? If you look at all of the proposed solutions to climate change issues they almost without exception just happen to coincide with the pre-existing economic agenda of the far left and the big government democrats. This is what first sparked my skepticism. The marriage between science(funding) and politics is a partnership that is ripe for corruption. I believe in the goal of science absent the human factor but I am suspicious of the necessary human element. I feel the same way about organized religion.

The marriage between science(funding) and politics is a partnership that is ripe for corruption.

2Banana didn’t mention anything about. There’s the problem and there’s an assumption about the solution. He’s saying that people don’t like what they assume will be the solution, so they don’t believe that the problem exists. That’s irrational.

Someone here the other day stated something along the line that he didn’t care if the oceans rose, coastal areas like NYC and Miami became uninhabitable and weather became more extreme. He just didn’t want the cost of gasoline or his electric bill to go up. That, on the other hand, is not irrational.

Sure RW, but would you lend your own money on an overpriced house at interest only after what you’ve seen?

Or Calgary:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/alberta-slashes-oil-price-forecast-in-fiscal-update/article21791765/

Your narrative holds no water. What was that kid doing inside the cop’s car?

$2 Trillion under previous administration, $3 trillion under current…. and counting.