December 1, 2014

A Sort Of Malinvestment

A report from AzerNews. “Business is developing so rapidly in Azerbaijan that special agencies after investments in real estate abroad have popped up. Home prices in Istanbul increased more than 24 percent in August from a year earlier, the fastest since 2010, according to Turkey’s Central Bank. Nusret Ibrahimov, CEO of MBA Group- a consulting company- believes that middle-class Azerbaijanis prefer real estate in Turkey or Eastern Europe. ‘There are just a few people in Azerbaijan who have the ability to buy expensive real estate, for example in Europe,’ the expert told local media. ‘As a rule, the Turkish real estate is budgetary and a stable option for the middle class. If you compare prices in the markets of Turkey and Azerbaijan, in general, Turkish real estate is cheaper.’”

“Elnur Azadov, Executive Director of the Azerbaijani Association of Realtors said although Russian, Ukrainian and other real estate markets in the neighboring countries do not maintain a competitive advantage compared to Turkey, Azerbaijanis with relatives or business in these countries prefer to buy real estate in Russia. ‘While the small middle class prefers the budgetary real estate in Turkey, rich Azerbaijanis buy homes in prestigious areas of Moscow region,’ he said.”

“Moscow´s resale apartment prices fell by 2.13% during the year to the first quarter 2014 - an 8% fall when adjusted for inflation. In September, dollar prices of apartments in Moscow lost 2.5 percent, falling from $4,988 to $4,863 per square meter.”

The National on the UK. “After years of spiralling property prices, activity in central London – the most popular overseas property market for UAE buyers – will slow to a grinding halt next year. Experts predict that a combination of factors will come together in 2015 to subdue what has been one of the world’s best performing and most attractive housing sectors for the past five years. ‘The growth for the last five years has been phenomenal but in the end you just can’t expect the market to keep on climbing like that,’ Yolande Barnes, director of world research at Savills, told The National.”

“‘The Middle Eastern investors we deal with want to be in London; they understand London and they want to be there for the long term,’ says David Godchaux, the chief executive of Dubai-based Core Real Estate. ‘A lot of our investors have been buying in London for many years and we expect them to continue to do so. Yes, there could be a bit of a slowdown next year, that is only to be expected, but we certainly do not expect Middle Eastern investors to sell up as a result or even to stop buying in the long term.’”

The Province in Canada. “Shelly Moffat doesn’t recognize her Kitsilano neighbourhood any more. The homes are empty. The streets are like investment portfolios. And Moffat believes that in this part of Vancouver families like hers are becoming historical artifacts. Moffat said that in April she and her two daughters were evicted from a rental home. An international buyer wanted to renovate the home, which they had lived in since 2010, for personal use. The home remains vacant in a scenario that reflects the escalating affordability crunch impacting Vancouver neighbourhoods.”

“‘Do I live in a zombie neighbourhood?’ she said. ‘I’m living with a bunch of empty houses, and for-sale signs, and construction sites. You literally can visibly see the international buyers and realtors cruising the street and taking down house numbers,’ Moffat said.”

From Mortgage Broker in Australia. “Well-placed sources in the Australian mortgage and property space have revealed the magnitude of the systemic issue of foreign nationals buying existing property in Australia. Ausin Group argues that since 2006, the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) has not prosecuted a single overseas buyer for purchasing a second-hand dwelling. ‘The FIRB’s policy stipulates that overseas buyers can only buy new properties or newly-completed dwellings,’ Ausin Group managing director Joseph Zaja said. Ausin Group, which has offices in Beijing and Shanghai, confirmed that clients are starting to reject new housing stock as ‘the word is now out’ that Australia’s FIRB rules are a joke. ‘Their friends and family are purchasing second-hand homes with no barriers to entry and they too are now moving onto this bandwagon,’ Mr Zaja said.”

“Speaking at a media briefing in Sydney last week, Credit Suisse senior adviser, Robert Parker, said foreign investment is now a ‘huge issue’ in London. ‘A number of surveys in central London have looked at new property developments in certain London boroughs and found that the majority of those apartments were not occupied,’ Mr Parker said. ‘Whether it is wealthy Russians or wealthy Greeks or whatever, it doesn’t matter what nationality they are, they are all coming in and buying this as an investment and leaving it unoccupied,’ he said. ‘I think you have a similar issue here.’”

From Australian Mining. “An analyst out of China has warned the price of iron ore could fall to lows of $US50 a tonne. Shanghai Jianfeng vice-president Liang Ruian said oversupply coupled with a slowing property market in China could mean the price rout lasts for 10 years. Speaking to The Australian Liang said the stagnate state of the Chinese real estate market would have a devastating effect on the steel industry.”

“‘The inventory of housing is up to a couple of years, while in China the rapid development of the e-commerce market is having a big impact on the sales and rents for the commercial real estate market. I think the golden ten years that we have had in the real estate market in China is over,’ Liang said. ‘The crash of the real estate market means the crash of the steel market.’”

From Business Insider. “The Chinese economy has wasted $6.8 trillion (£4.3 trillion) in investment during the last four years, according to a report from China’s National Development and Reform Commission and the Academy of Macroeconomic Research, written up here in the Financial Times. Even in the enormous Chinese economy, that’s practically half of the investment between 2009 and 2013, the period covered by the investigation.”

“According to the FT, the authors are blaming the investment on low interest rates and other forms of government stimulus, suggesting that there’s been a sort of malinvestment. The problem is exacerbated by graft and corruption among the country’s autocratic elite, which skims off the investment whether it’s wasteful or not.”




RSS feed

67 Comments »

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 04:41:53

From the Mortgage Broker article:

‘In Australia, as the new rules on foreign investors await government approval, the committee report highlighted another growing concern - sources of financing. The report raised fears of a strong possibility that shadow banking may be involved in some cases.’

“The extent of this issue is uncertain but it would be prudent to ensure that any transactions involving an overseas purchase of an Australian property can be thoroughly investigated if considered suspicious,” the committee recommended.’

‘Mr Parker of Credit Suisse, who is based in Europe, explained shadow banking in its simplest form. “Let’s say I’m a wealthy Chinese individual and I walk into an ICBC branch in Beijing and say ‘listen, I’ve got a million renminbi that I want to put on deposit for six months’,” he explained.’

“The bank will tell you that if you put it with them they will give you half a per cent. But the salesman will say ‘I have this fantastic mutual fund, and if you buy units in this fantastic mutual fund, which invests money with a very safe Chinese company, we will pay you 10 per cent’.

“You go back in six months’ time and they say ‘sorry, the company has gone bust’. What they then say is that the Chinese government has instructed them that you will get your money back, but the fund is now restructured so what was a six-month instrument is now a 20-year instrument.”

“The important point, Mr Parker noted, is that China has clamped down on shadow banking and eased lending to the conventional banks.”

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 04:47:34

“Do I live in a zombie neighbourhood?’ she said. ‘I’m living with a bunch of empty houses, and for-sale signs, and construction sites. You literally can visibly see the international buyers and realtors cruising the street and taking down house numbers,’ Moffat said.”

Do idiot oligarch investors think they are somehow going to profit from holding on to zombie houses? If inflation turns out much larger than expected, history could make them look smart; but if oil, gold and other real assets are any indication, these fools are on track to lose a good chunk of their fortunes.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-01 06:40:56

these fools are on track to lose a good chunk of their fortunes ??

Better than losing all of it in the homeland…If your worth 2-bil and you lose 1-bil your still urber-rich…

 
Comment by snake charmer
2014-12-01 11:39:05

Until that deflation arrives, and I’m not convinced that Western governments will allow it, I’ve got another question: does utterly hideous Western political and economic leadership believe that their countries somehow benefit by turning residential housing into something that their own citizens cannot afford? I would guess that, for every person who gets a windfall, dozens more lose faith in the institutions of democratic government.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 18:02:33

“…does utterly hideous Western political and economic leadership believe that their countries somehow benefit by turning residential housing into something that their own citizens cannot afford?”

I’m guessing lots of Americans are not overly excited about artificially inflated housing prices, though I suppose those with money and political influence (who generally are already homeowners) are not among them.

 
 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-12-01 21:36:04

I rented in a zombie neighborhood in 2006 and watched it crater from a front row seat. I posted a photo of it here in 2006. Take a look yourself:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/js_slideshow/#123

Only 3 homes of 138 were owner occupied. The developer JTS Communities sold the rest to flippers. They tried to hide the foreclosures in 2008, but some many homes had the water disconnected, finally the developer hired a water truck to come in every other day and spray the lawns to keep them from turning brown. I posted a photo of the water truck here too, but I guess Ben has deleted it.

It is a curious place to live. No trick or treaters that Halloween!

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-12-01 21:46:34

….more on zombie houses….

Here is a link to the photo of the water truck later in 2007. The developer tried to hide the zombie houses from the new FB’s by water the lawns of the abandoned foreclosures.

http://sacramentolanding.blogspot.com/2007/07/lincoln-crossing-got-water.html

Comment by Jingle Male
2014-12-01 22:47:20

Oh….btw…135 of the 138 homes were foreclosed in the bubble bust…..some twice as knife catching speclators busted again on the way down!

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 04:50:44

Kudos to the FT for pointing out the Emporer’s New Clothes for all the world to see.

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-01 08:02:35

I think the sheiks have been told that if they enact QE4 now via the pump, they will be rewarded later by concerted efforts to destroy fracking.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 08:10:22

I was referring to the $6.8 trillion reportedly malinvested in China. The sheiks were big-tme winners in this episode.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 05:42:44

San Francisco, CA Sale Prices Plummet 15% YoY; Inventory Balloons As Housing Demand Craters

http://www.zillow.com/san-francisco-ca-94109/home-values/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 05:46:55

Southlake, TX Sale Prices Turn Negative on Year; Down 7% MoM and 11% QoQ

http://www.zillow.com/southlake-tx/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:00:20

‘At first sight, a combination of economic growth of nearly 4 percent, falling unemployment and price increases of around 1.6 percent looks good. Central bankers worry, though, that inflation, instead of picking up further, could head the other way.’

‘For the Fed, 2 percent inflation provides a necessary buffer against deflation, and sufficient leeway to leave crisis era “zero lower bound” on interest rates behind and start using them as the main policy lever again.’

‘One Fed official, who declined to be named, told Reuters policymakers must resist the urge to lift rates at the first opportunity because they might be forced to backtrack if inflation failed to pick up.’

‘Narayana Kocherlakota, who has been a dissenting voice and voted against ending the Fed’s bond buying program in October, says time is ripe for the Fed to come clean on inflation and act.’

“A key for us would be to be communicating effectively and then taking actions to live up to that communication that we are trying to get inflation back to 2 percent as rapidly as possible,” the Minneapolis Fed president said last in November.’

‘Other officials, who declined to be named, were not ready to sound alarm yet but said that if inflation continued to disappoint the Fed would have to admit it did not know how long it could last, or how it might shape longer-term expectations.’

‘They also flagged a growing concern that oil prices, which hit a four-year low below $70 a barrel on Friday, will depress the “core” price measures the Fed uses to steer its policy.’

‘For now, however, most policymakers opt to stick with the tried-and-tested theory that monetary stimulus and accelerating growth will eventually lift inflation and fear that airing their doubts could make the Fed’s target even harder to accomplish.’

On this:

‘They also flagged a growing concern that oil prices, which hit a four-year low below $70 a barrel on Friday, will depress the “core” price measures’

While we’re all celebrating that it isn’t costing us a the equivalent of a hotel stay to fill up our tank, these bastards think it’s bad that oil is cheaper.

Come on media, lecture us on how compassionate Yellen is and how she cares for the poor and the children.

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:23:07

Here’s something for the junk bond lenders to remember with these falling oil prices:

‘Well, I decided that I’d get my cowboy hat
And go down to Marble Art Station.
‘Cause when a Texan fancies, he’ll take his chances. Chances will be taken, that’s for sure.’

 
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-12-01 07:08:33

‘One Fed official, who declined to be named, told Reuters policymakers must resist the urge to lift rates at the first opportunity…’

So there hasn’t yet been an ‘opportunity’ to raise rates? Is this the same thing as saying there really hasn’t yet been any real ‘recovery’, at least as they define it?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 07:24:10

With demand cratering in all sectors of the economy, they won’t need to raise rates. Cratering demand, massive excess supply.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 08:12:47

I thought the volatile food and energy sectors were of no concern when gauging inflation?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:02:01

Exactly! All they have to do is play with the hedonic adjustments to keep the CPI up no matter what happens to actual prices.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 06:09:32

Palm Beach Gardens, FL Sale Prices Crater 8% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/palm-beach-gardens-fl/home-values/

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 06:28:14

Oil junk bonds… housing junk bonds…. it’s all worthless junk.

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:39:15

‘”Save the date, November 9, 2014 The Ramat Givat Ze’ev Real Estate Fair is Coming to Toronto! A once in the lifetime opportunity to live in the Jerusalem Hills…” — advertisement, Oct. 30 edition of the Canadian Jewish News.’

‘This vision of a North American suburban bubble in the bucolic vicinity of east Jerusalem seems oblivious to the daily and sometimes deadly clashes between Jews and Arabs over land and the Temple Mount in Israel’s disputed capital.’

‘Ramat Givat Ze’ev is another new Jewish settlement sitting on land that Canada and the rest of the world recognizes should be part of a negotiated Palestinian state within Israel’s occupied territories. The politics doesn’t faze Nofei Israel, the Israeli real estate company that swooped down into Toronto on Sunday Nov. 9 to sell homes in a planned 400 unit project in Ramat Givat Ze’ev — described as a “new city for North American residents in Israel” in the northern vicinity of east Jerusalem.’

‘About 60 families flocked to the Shaarei Shomayim synagogue on Glencairn Ave. in Toronto — a more Orthodox Jewish part of town. Similar events promoting the housing project were staged by Nofei in the U.S., Switzerland and Israel. About 25 Canadian families ended up buying units.’

‘The new homes and condo units in Ramat Givat Ze`ev are priced in the $480,000 to $1.5 million price range. “It is a very high end, not a normal neighbourhood like [the immigrant and working class] Beit Shemesh or any neighbourhood you find in Israel,” Kas maintains.’

‘Kas insists that Nofei bought the property fairly from a Palestinian owner. Furthermore, customers can be assured that they will not be affected by the violence in Jerusalem, he promises with a shocking bluntness.’

“You can see in the area [of Ramat Givat Ze'ev], it is one of the only areas where you don’t see Arabs. In all of Jerusalem in each neighbourhood you can see an Arab village. For us [in Ramat Givat Ze'ev] you don’t see them. You are not close to them. That is a very very big plus,” he explains.’

‘For additional protection, the new home owners in Ramat Givat Ze’ev (slated to be built in about two years) will have to enter or leave the project via a security gate and checkpoint.’

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-01 07:51:03

Sucks when you attack a country and then lose the war. When is Germany getting back western Poland and Alsace Lorraine???

Comment by scdave
2014-12-01 07:57:45

Sucks when you attack a country and then lose the war ??

You mean like “Shock & Awe” with Bush & Cheney telling us it would be over in a few months ??

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 08:04:11

strange that the iraq disaster has gone on longer under OTrauma than the guys who started it.

You think OTrauma will keep it going for his entire double term?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by 2banana
2014-12-01 08:52:42

Source??

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by snake charmer
2014-12-01 12:01:23

Bush may not have said that, but Cheney and Rumsfeld did. I know this is hard.
___________________________/

There will be no World War III starting with Iraq, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld declared Thursday, and rejected concerns that a war would be a quagmire.

“The idea that it’s going to be a long, long, long battle of some kind I think is belied by the fact of what happened in 1990,” he said on an Infinity Radio call-in program.

He said the U.S. military is stronger than it was during the Persian Gulf War, while Iraq’s armed forces are weaker.

“Five days or five weeks or five months, but it certainly isn’t going to last any longer than that,” he said.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/rumsfeld-it-would-be-a-short-war/

CHENEY: My own judgment based on my time as secretary of Defense, and having operated in this area in the past, I’m confident that our troops will be successful, and I think it’ll go relatively quickly, but we can’t…

SCHIEFFER: Weeks?

CHENEY: …we can’t count on that.

SCHIEFFER: Months?

CHENEY: Weeks rather than months.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ftn-3-16-03/

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-12-01 18:09:28

The US military defeated the Iraqi military pretty quickly.

It was all the non-government actors that became a problem.

I’m surprised you didn’t note Rumsfeld’s “parade of horribles”–the October 15, 2002 memo noting 29 potential problems if the US entered into a conflict with Iraq.

#17: US could fail to manage post-Saddam Hussein Iraq successfully, with the result that it could fracture into two or three pieces…

#18: The dollar cost of the effort could prove to be greater than expected…

#27: Iraq could experience ethnic strife among Sunni, Shia and Kurds.

And the parting shot:

“Note: It is possible of course to prepare a similar illustrative list of all the potential problems that need to be considered if there is no regime change in Iraq.”

My point is this–Iraq is a mess. To say that Bush got it all wrong isn’t right. A lot of the things that went wrong were considered as risks–a lot of the things that they thought could go wrong did not go wrong. The Bush administration (with the votes of the Senate and House) still moved ahead, despite those risks.

However, it turned out that we quickly and decisively won the war that we thought we were fighting (the war against Saddam’s weaker than expected government). However, we dramatically underestimated the real battle, which was holding together a country post-Saddam–that’s where the US royally f’d up.

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 13:08:09

1.5 mil for a house that is basically in a potential war zone.

And I thought Vancouver was way overpriced.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 06:41:00

Seaside, OR Sale Prices Sink 4% YoY; Plummet 15% MoM and 29% QoQ

http://www.zillow.com/or-97138/home-values/

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:44:46

‘Rating companies say defaults in China will spread as the central bank’s interest rate cut will do little to stop a wave of maturities from worsening record debt downgrades.’

‘Chinese credit assessors slashed grades on 83 firms this year, already matching the record number in all of 2013, according to data compiled by Shenzhen-based China Investment Securities Co. Companies must repay 2.1 trillion yuan ($342 billion) in the first six months of 2015, the most for any half, data compiled by Bloomberg show.’

‘The People’s Bank of China, which cut its benchmark lending rate 40 basis points to 5.6 percent last week, must balance efforts to ease access to cash with steps to stem bad loans that soared the most since 2005 last quarter. Slowing economic growth is adding to strains as average debt at listed companies has climbed to 94 percent of equity from 77 percent in 2007, Bloomberg-compiled data show.’

“The interest rate cut will only help reduce borrowing costs slightly for companies and won’t aid financial risk profiles dramatically,” said Christopher Lee, Hong Kong-based managing director of corporate ratings at S&P, which more than doubled downgrades on Chinese issuers to 29 this year. “The fundamental issue isn’t interest rates, it’s leverage, which is quite high.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:06:36

“first six months of 2015″

I thought they were only 12 hours away from us over there.

 
 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:50:49

‘After spending $1 trillion since 2002 on projects to feed China’s commodity boom, the world’s mining companies have a lot riding on their biggest customer.;

‘While commodities may be trading at five-year lows, the heads of three top miners BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP), Vale SA (VALE3) and Rio Tinto Group (RIO) last week all backed China, the world’s second-biggest economy, to keep buying increasing amounts of their products deep into the next decade. Not everyone agrees.’

“The commodity guys are just too optimistic,” Tao Dong, chief regional economist for Asia excluding Japan at Credit Suisse Group AG in Hong Kong, said in an interview, without referring to particular companies.’

‘As China moves to a consumer-led from an investment-led economy, there may be a substantial absolute drop in commodities demand, not just slower growth, he said. “This is happening now,” Tao said. “It’s just people are covering their eyes and refusing to believe that what is happening now is not just a cyclical story, but also a structural story.”

‘The World Bank forecast this year that metals’ prices were set to decline more than 6 percent, following last year’s 5.5. percent drop, on new supplies and weaker Chinese demand. A Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) of 22 raw materials fell Nov. 28 to its lowest since July 2009, headed for a fourth annual decline, the longest slump since at least 1991.’

‘The China factor for the commodity super cycle is over,’’ said Credit Suisse’s Tao. “If housing, infrastructure are no longer the main drivers of the Chinese economy, I think Chinese demand for commodities is going to shrink.”

 
Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 06:54:36

‘What should a central bank do next when it already has zero interest rates and arguably still faces the threat of Japanese-style deflation? If it’s the Swedish Riksbank, it should keep cutting, and do so soon, says Lars Svensson.’

‘Svensson no longer has a say; he quit as a deputy Riksbank governor last year after failing to persuade fellow board members to cut rates aggressively. Last month, they heeded his advice, lowering the repo rate to 0 percent and pushing back the official forecast for when the Riksbank will start tightening monetary policy again to mid-2016.’

‘After years of tense, polarised meetings that eventually led to Svensson’s resignation, a united Riksbank now sees zero rates as enough to push inflation up towards its 2 percent target. Svensson disagrees, saying Sweden should go into negative rates - effectively charging banks to deposit funds at the central bank - to avoid the deflation which has trapped Japan in low economic growth punctuated by periodic recessions for more than a decade.’

“From this point it is unlikely that the current policy at zero is enough,” he told Reuters. “They should lower to -0.25 or even -0.50. The next meeting would be the natural time.”

‘Nevertheless, Swedish consumer prices have been flat or falling for most of the last two years on an annual basis. Underlying inflation, the Riksbank’s preferred measure which excludes interest rate effects, was 0.6 percent in October.’

‘Some fear the bank may have again underestimated how weak price pressures are, especially with economic problems in the euro zone and China, and it needs to do more.. “For Sweden, it all hinges on international demand picking up,” said Roger Josefsson, chief economist at Danske Markets. “We are afraid to admit it, but I think there are a lot of similarities between Sweden and Japan.”

Comment by scdave
2014-12-01 07:05:33

“We are afraid to admit it, but I think there are a lot of similarities between Sweden and Japan.” ??

Contagion…?? Is it any wonder why the wealthy of the world are diversifying by dumping billions into markets they perceive to be safer…Has little to do with “investing” IMO…Its about preservation…

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 07:20:50

The Chinese created $19 trillion in their currency since 2008. Even central bankers will admit they can’t print wealth. Somebody over there looked around and realized $7 trillion of that has gone poof! More poof to come, as these people run around the globe buying houses.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-01 07:40:30

More poof to come, as these people run around the globe buying houses ??

Not just houses….Houses get the biggest headlines because they impact the most people and getting people to read/listen is what msm wants….

What I am hearing around here about some commercial real estate dwarfs what has happened with housing prices…I liken it to the art auction at Sotheby’s…Its become detached from any metric that has been historically used…Now its just, how much are you willing to pay…How bad do you want it…

(Comments wont nest below this level)
 
Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-01 08:51:52

The Chinese created $19 trillion in their currency since 2008. [...] Somebody over there looked around and realized $7 trillion of that has gone poof!

Here’s a (new?) economic theory for you:

Mal-investment exists in direct proportion to money-printing.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 10:16:48

I suspect that China’s “full employment” policy also played a role.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 07:22:22

And when those borrowed billions need to be paid back, a fire sale occurs.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 08:52:45

What if a central bank uses printing press money to pay back the debt? (Recent reference: Fed’s QE3 MBS purchases…)

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:14:54

The investment bankers remain whole while the rest of the economy tanks. So, what does the Fed do to protect the banks that hoarded commodities and are now choking on them?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 18:03:45

QE4 to snap up fracking junk bonds could be right around the corner…

 
 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 08:41:57

‘What should a central bank do next when it already has zero interest rates and arguably still faces the threat of Japanese-style deflation?

I suppose they could mail stimulus checks to the masses, knowing well that they will get spent.

They problem with that, which they know very well, is that they won’t be able to stop doing that if they start, just like they know they can’t raise interest rates without crashing the system.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-01 08:50:30

“they know they can’t raise interest rates without crashing the system.”

They’ve got a market problem. They do nothing, the system crashes. They do what they’re inclined to do, the system crashes.

Hold on tight.

Comment by Ben Jones
2014-12-01 09:06:49

Like the one guy said, leverage is the problem, not rates.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 10:00:58

However, ultra-low rates tend to tempt borrowers and high-risk gamblers to pile on the leverage.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:16:39

Increasing leverage only appears to work with rising prices. With falling prices the loss is leveraged, no need to pile on.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 10:05:34

Hold on tight.

Indeed. Most countries only have variable rate mortgages. Rates go up and there will be a global tsunami of defaults and foreclosures.

The ride could get very bumpy, which is why I believe they will kick the can as long as possible, and maybe even longer, with the rationale that while things suck even with can kicking, they’ll suck even more without it.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:23:08

The problem I see with that is kicking the can on the flat will not work. The can has to be propelled upward, ever and ever higher. Once you can’t make it go higher, it’s game over.

Grow or die.

 
 
 
 
Comment by snake charmer
2014-12-01 15:10:48

It’s sad that some countries allegedly need inflation so badly during a time of stagnant wages that they are willing to steal from savers. I mean, how many people can we hose so that the credibility of central bankers is preserved?

I sense that our leaders are willing to entertain all kinds of crackpot ideas to sustain a hated status quo. It’s tough to hedge against anything when the hedge might be made illegal at any time by fiat.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 08:34:40

I think the golden ten years that we have had in the real estate market in China is over,’ Liang said. ‘The crash of the real estate market means the crash of the steel market.’

Which means they’ll need a less rebar. A lot less. How many million workers were involved in building those ghost cities and all the materials that went into making them: concrete, plumbing, electrical, flooring, doors, bricks, wall covering, trim, lighting, etc.?

Comment by scdave
2014-12-01 08:36:19

10’s of millions….

Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 08:43:03

Who will soon find themselves unemployed.

Comment by Cactus
2014-12-01 09:15:44

They will spread out across the glob looking for construction projects and low balling every other bidder.

And Governments are short of cash. What do you think will happen ?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-01 10:01:20

Most countries, unlike us, are protectionist and won’t give Chinese construction workers visas. It’s one thing if the Chinese build roads, hospitals, stadiums, etc. for free (which they might continue to do) and another if they are charging to do it. In the latter case they will be expected to hire locals to do the grunt work.

 
Comment by Jingle Male
2014-12-02 01:36:48

Build a canal in Nicaragua?

 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 08:54:46

Yep. They are going to have to find something for dislocated workers, whose employment depended on the Housing Bubble, to do — same as in the U.S.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:25:58

They could send a hundred million of them out into the hills to learn farming.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-01 08:57:10

China’s economy shows further weakness
Published: Nov 30, 2014 11:03 p.m. ET
By MarketWatch

BEIJING–The Chinese economy continued to weaken in November as two gauges of factory activity indicated manufacturing had lost momentum despite a recent cut in interest rates.

China shares rose in trading Monday morning as investors bet that the weak purchasing managers index numbers would prompt China’s central bank to cut interest rates further.

China’s official measure of manufacturing activity slipped to its lowest showing since March while a private gauge compiled by HSBC and research firm Markit touched a six-month low, according to data released Monday.

“The PMI data suggests that fundamentals are still very weak,” said Macquarie Group economist Larry Hu. “Investment in property and manufacturing remains weak, so the government is the only one spending,” he added. “And when government spending wanes in the winter months, the economy falls off,” in part due to cold weather affecting construction projects.

 
Comment by Cactus
2014-12-01 09:06:06

There’s a fabulous “guest suite” in the trailer out front, complete with its own patio and entrance.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Venice/1130-Electric-Ave-90291/home/6742256

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-01 10:44:23

Don’t be a hater.

It comes with a hot tub and synthetic grass…

 
Comment by oxide
2014-12-01 11:58:24

Thank you posting a link to a house!

Actually that’s a really cute property if you’re into that kind of boho-beachy ar-teest lifestyle. And why not have a trailer for a guest room? It’s no worse than a badly built beach cabin, and it’s not like you need New England style weatherproofing.

But at $1.25 mil, you’d need to be the loser kid of some rich actor.

Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-12-01 17:05:12

Ahem, it’s “artiste”. And it must come with a “studio”.

 
 
 
Comment by taxpayers
2014-12-01 10:15:20

free-er oil isn’t that much fun. Bloomberg pitching $42 break even.
BAAAAAAAAAhhhhhhhhhh hilarious.
ND,TX,OK and many more are toast.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-01 11:27:37

Along with the speculators who lent them the money.

 
 
Comment by alphonso bedoya
2014-12-02 00:01:44

“An analyst out of China has warned the price of iron ore could fall to lows of $US50 a tonne. Shanghai Jianfeng vice-president Liang Ruian said oversupply coupled with a slowing property market in China could mean the price rout lasts for 10 years. ”

Ten years.
Someone has crunched numbers.

 
Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
URI
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post