Bits Bucket for December 6, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Beautiful night for camping out here in Anza - Borrego…and nary a house in sight.
I don’t get it. You are camping but wanted to post about it on a housing blog rather than just enjoying the camping? Be.Here.Now.
Whac and Shillow….are you two married to each other? Husband and wife?
….and Shillow, please go easy on him. It is nice to know he found a safe place away from the daily threat of the imminent collapse of the housing bubble!
Nope. No dumpy investor-owned rental homes in sight out here.
Jingle_Fraud
Well I think Anza Borrego is in California, so I guess we could get married. But he hasn’t proposed to me yet.
They bicker like an old married couple.
“Be.Here.Now.”
He lives here.
No he lives in your head. Rent free.
Lots of good shills coming out of the woodwork early today. E pluribus unum or E unum pluribus?
Either. It’s Crater Rage. Or is it craterage?
It’s Crater Rage. Or is it craterage?
LOL… Ok, that’s a good one, HA. Every once in a while, you have these gems…
And stick with the data my friend.
“I don’t get it.”
I do, I get it; It’s who he is.
You are camping but wanted to post about it on a housing blog ??
Its the Bits Bucket Dude…Wide latitude for posts…You want to control the dialogue, go start your own blog and take HA with you…
welcome to arcadia ca bear pit:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aoeUxzUR4ec
Southern California, Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.
If you watch this video, pay attention to your feelings about the events and issues. It is likely how the rest of the world has felt about ex-pat Americans for many years.
I saw the video yesterday. My first thought was that this is not going to end well for the Chinese that have purchased there, not because of cratering values, but because of the long arm of the Chinese law when it comes looking to repatriate funds and financial scofflaws. Don’t think for a minute that the US wouldn’t assist China in returning its citizens home for some “justice”.
These Chinese are living rather ostentatiously, not really a good idea to flaunt your lifestyle in the face of the folks back home, especially if and when things start to tank.
Thanks, interesting video! I’d never thought to look on Youtube for housing bubble clips before, there are a LOT and many are recent…
https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=housing+bubble&filters=year&lclk=year
HA, Ha, ha, hahahahaha gone! Good one Depreciation Dave!
I’m not saying he can’t or it is off topic. I’m just saying that being miles away from houses out camping seems like a good time to do other things.
Not for Whac. He likes the HBB too much to not post from everywhere……………..
Chalk it up to these damn smart phones, plus curiosity to see which 25 places HA chose to highlight collapsing prices this morning
I figured it was the smartphone. We all suffer from screen addiction.
“Chalk it up to these damn smart phones …”
Bahahahahaha … asks yourself this question:
Just what is it that is owned by whom or whom is it that is owned by what?
Think crack pipe.
The phone/pc is the gun. We merely provide the ammo.
Exactly SCDave. I am glad for W-A-B to post and wish him and his wife and kids a great weekend in the high desert. Posting or not.
As do I.
Wife wasn’t along (doesn’t camp), it was dark outside, and my son and others along were asleep, so it seemed like an opportune moment to catch the latest updates on cratering home prices.
P.S. Bill…thx for the well wishes. But fyi it’s actually the “low desert”…at the base of the eastern side of the San Diego mountains, near the Salton Sea. Great spot to camp in the cool months.
+1000 scdave
Data data data.
Reminds me of the Mike “Gentle Convenience Store Robbing Giant” Brown die-in socialists are having all over the land. Except, I guess nobody told the yutes that when you die, you can’t check Twitter or Facebook on your iphone.
If I link a story it will probably blow up the post. Google “die in checking phones” and you can see the videos/photos, pretty funny.
This was the scene right after my post this morning from just outside my tent (including my tent to the right). What a lovely, peaceful place. Can’t wait to go back again!
From yesterday:
——————-
Comment by pazuzu
2014-12-05 17:49:39
“I still anticipate that prices will fall to 2011-level adjusted for inflation.”
Why 2011? Because magic 2011 is when you became a loan owner? Seriously?
——————-
To be honest, yes I’m probably biased. Actually I hit the tail end of a dip in early 2012. I didn’t really have a crystal ball; I just got sick of renting and had just gotten a stable job at the time.
Early 2012 seems to be some kind of inflection point, when banks finally started foreclosing en masse, and when the cash investors really kicked into high gear and drove up prices. I wasn’t expecting that.
“… when the cash investors really kicked into high gear and drove up prices.”
And, now? What have these cash investors been doing lately?
In fairness to oxide, the last couple of years make me pine for 2011 prices and it does seem almost inconceivable to people now that prices will break below the last lows back then now that they’ve committed to full heroin to treat junkies.
I expect a slide lower than 2011. 2011 was an artificial support still. Remove the MID and let it go where it should.
Perhaps with Republicans running Congress, support for the MID will wane. But I’m doubtful, as the Republican base (ueber rich) benefit themost from it.
It would take a drop to 2011 prices to get me interested in buying again. Locally (Calif. wine country) 3/2’s in decent neighborhoods were about $250K (about 10 years rent) back then but 100% cash flippers and speculators snatched nearly all of them up, I tried to buy then but it was virtually impossible w/ a mortgage…the same places are now about $400K and buying makes no sense to me.
I do wonder if there will be a second wave of locusts after Bubble 2.0 pops, do NOT want to waste my time trying to compete with them again. One positive factor is that there seem to be very few foreign buyers in Sonoma Co. or north of San Francisco/Marin Co. in general….so far.
Region VIII
Faith Hill - “Breathe” (Official Video) - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yCmsZUN4r_s - 473k -
Region VIII
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20141206_123024_007-ttqzpZb2.jpg
Housing Demand Craters YoY In 56 of 58 Counties In California
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/County/County_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Your posts seem to really be getting under the skin of the HBBs’ residential investor brigade these days.
The time has come my friends. Buying bonds from the primary dealers where in turn they take that cash and buy stocks is simply doing nothing for main street. All the people want is a decent paying job so they can get a mortgage and chase the american dream.
So how do you get cash in americans hands? You fire up the drones and start dropping cash from the sky. Get some of those unemployed burger flippers and hire them to operate these drones from the comfort of their homes.
So we do some massive cash drops but how do you get these folks to actually spend the cash . We need velocity not hoarding. We need them to buy some imports at walmart and harbor freight tools so those folks who make those products will buy some more treasuries. Part of the cash drop contract is that you cant save the cash. If you save the cash you go to jail.
Why buy it when prices are going lower?
Hawaii Housing Demand Craters 15% YoY As Price Declines Resume
http://files.zillowstatic.com/research/public/State/State_Turnover_AllHomes.csv
Davis, CA(UC Davis) Sale Prices Dive 10% MoM, 14% QoQ and 4% YoY; Sellers Slash Prices As Demand Craters
http://www.zillow.com/davis-ca/home-values/
Salinas Metro, CA Sellers Slash List Prices 20% YoY As Race To Housing Bottom Resumes
http://www.zillow.com/salinas-ca/home-values/
Law Enforcement Targets Inc. Discontinues Line of Targets Featuring Mom, Child, Grandparents, Pregnant Woman
Mike Riggs|Feb. 25, 2013 3:14 pm
“We apologize for the offensive nature of our ‘No More Hesitation’ products,” reads a letter that LET Inc. posted Feb. 21 on its company Facebook page. “These products have been taken offline due to the opinions expressed by so many, including members of the law enforcement community.”
According to a statement the company sent Reason last week, members of the law enforcement community inspired Law Enforcement Targets Inc. to design the “No More Hesitation” series in the first place:
Law Enforcement Targets Inc. Discontinues Line of … - Reason.com
reason.com/blog/2013/02/25/law-enforcement-targets-inc-discontinues - 381k - Cached - Similar pages
Feb 25, 2013 … We apologize for the offensive nature of our “No More Hesitation” products. These products have been taken offline due to the opinions .
——————————————————————————-
They have a right to get home alive.
He’s got a bottle opener!
————————————————————————-
Police Shoot, Kill Man With Pocket Knife Near Hollywood Walk of Fame
A graphic photo from a witness showed officers standing over a man, their guns pointing toward him, as he lay in a crosswalk.
By Christina Cocca
Saturday, Dec 6, 2014 • Updated at 12:12 AM PST
A man with a combination pocket knife was shot and killed by police Friday night near the Hollywood Walk of Fame, police said.
Police responded to reports of a man with a deadly weapon at Hollywood Boulevard and Highland Avenue just before 7 p.m., police said.
Updates: Download the FREE NBCLA App
Officers fired after seeing the man approach them while armed with a knife, said Meghan Aguilar of the LAPD. The man died in the hospital before 9:30 p.m.
A combination knife, similar to a Swiss Army Knife, was found at the scene.
Witnesses described hearing what sounded like “firecrackers” before realizing the sound was gunfire and watching crowds ducking and running away.
“I heard a series of four or five pops,” witness Matthew Rojas said.
“It was very surreal,” Henry Hodge said. “The cars stopped, the people stopped, and immediately people started panicking.”
One woman said a man ran into a McDonald’s shouting that police shot his friend, who sometimes “liked to wave a knife to scare tourists.”
A graphic photo from a witness showed officers standing over a man with guns pointing toward him as he lay in a crosswalk.
Patrick Healy contributed to this report.
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/…/local/hollywood-highland-shooting-report-284945511.html - 121k - Cached - Similar pages
6 hours ago
One woman said a man ran into a McDonald’s shouting that police shot his friend, who sometimes “liked to wave a knife to scare tourists.”
No sympathy from me. Sounds like a case of taking out the trash.
“No sympathy from me. Sounds like a case of taking out the trash.”
Maybe, but I find it hard to believe that a couple of trained police officers could not take down a dude armed with a Swiss Army knife without shooting him.
Seems to be a lot of that anymore. Police shot and killed a dude at a Walmart in Beavercreek Ohio in August, he was holding a BB gun that was sold in the store. The 12 year old kid in Cleveland last month the cops pulled right up next to, opened their door and shot him for waving a BB gun. Unarmed 20 year old Dillon Taylor got shot and killed by a police officer in Utah this summer, you may not have heard about it because Dillon Taylor was white and the cop who shot him was black. But I am pretty sure both black and white cops get the same ‘No More Hesitation’ training.
We used to walk through our neighborhood with BB guns on our way to what used to be woods. If it was like this in the 70s when I was growing up, I would have been along with most of my friends gunned down with this ‘No More Hesitation’ Policing.
UPDATED: Cop Shoots 17-Year-Old Boy Who Answers Door, Nothing Else Happens GBI Says “Case File” Still Open
Ed Krayewski|Jul. 17, 2014 2:19 pm
Beth Gatny of the Euharlee, Georgia, police department fatally shot 17-year-old Christopher Roupe after the boy opened the door for the officer. Gatny was at the residence to serve a probation warrant for Roupe’s father. Police claimed the 17-year old pointed a gun at the officer but the family insisted he was holding a Nintendo Wii controller. One witness said she saw the cop sobbing into her hands after the shooting.
In April, a grand jury recommended the District Attorney, Rosemary Greene, take action, finding the use of deadly force was not authorized. The DA’s office said it would collect additional evidence and return to a grand jury. Unfortunately you can probably guess what happened next. Via WSB-TV in Atlanta:
The District Attorney’s Office for the Cherokee Judicial Circuit presented a proposed indictment charging Gatny with involuntary manslaughter and reckless conduct. However, the grand jury did not find sufficient evidence for the case to proceed to trial.
“Because the Grand Jury has determined that the actions of Officer Gatny did not rise to the level of a criminal offense, this concludes the involvement of the District Attorney’s Office in this matter,” District Attorney Rosemary Greene said.
Gatny, who had been with the Euharlee Police Department less than a year, was fired from her previous police job, in Acworth, Georgia. While there, among other things, she apparently shot a suspect while he was trying to remove his backpack, believing he was going for a gun. She was fired for exhausting her medical leave.
The Georgia Bureau of Investigation (GBI) completed its investigation into the shooting sometime in April and sent the results to the DA. That report does not appear to have been made public but Reason has placed an open records request for the final report.
UPDATE (2:19 p.m.): The special agent-in-charge at the GBI’s Legal Services responded to our request by advising us that the report is contained in a case file that is open, and so by law “not subject to dissemination until the investigation is concluded.” That may include “prosecutorial actions and the appeals process.”
One woman said a man ran into a McDonald’s shouting that police shot his friend, who sometimes “liked to wave a knife to scare tourists.”
The “meat-n-potatoes” folks.
Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-06 07:43:00
Law Enforcement Targets Inc. Discontinues Line of Targets Featuring Mom, Child, Grandparents, Pregnant Woman
reason.com/blog/2013/02/25/law-enforcement-targets-inc-discontinues
Police Shoot, Kill Man With Pocket Knife Near Hollywood Walk of Fame
http://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/local/hollywood-highland-shooting-report-284945511.html
My next door neighbor is a cop. Nicest guy you’d ever meet. I sleep a bit better at night knowing it. Good father, good husband. Just like Michael Brown.
There are a lot of good cops.
There are a lot of good cops ??
Damm right there are…Its likely most start out seeing that its a honorable and dedicated profession…But, over time, like Combo’s suggestion below, they get poisoned to some degree or another..I guess we need to walk in their shoes to understand why…
But I will offer this as a possibility…Maybe even a probability…Being a policeman is part of being in a brotherhood with such solidarity that many things are witnessed that never see the light of day…Your future as a policeman, and the impact on your family is to great…Its better to just attempt to white-wash it from your mind, do not share it with anyone outside a few in the brotherhood, including your wife or husband….
So, here you are, trying to de your best to protect & serve but you are witnessing things that are criminal to many degrees but can’t/won’t say a peep…I am sure some things are leaked to Internal Affairs but aren’t they part of the brotherhood also ?? And their is that little thing called “proof”…
I have had a number of friends in local law enforcement…To the last man and one woman, they counted the days to retirement…Its like, they want to run away from their past…A way of not needing to think about or dwell on it anymore..
Most of those “good cops” seem to have few moral dilemnas about enforcing unconstitutional policies like civil forfeiture or unreasonable search and seizure. Or turning a blind eye to corruption or worse on the force. But likeable family men aside from that.
I’ll play the stats and live next to a cop versus a random any day.
The guy across the street from me is also a cop. Also used to be the nicest guy you’d ever meet but … something happened.
That Something that Happened was (my guess) working the off-shift in South Central L.A. He and the wife used to get along quite well . But now? Not so much.
It’s sad to witness, especially since there is a kid - a toddler - involved but … well, the beat goes on.
They want to move - move closer to her family (of whom he does not get along with). This, moving, is sometimes the last gasp of a marriage. Other marriage last gasps are going on a cruise to maybe patch things up, or (the horror) deciding to have another kid.
Watching these thing unfold is like reading a script.
“This, moving, is sometimes the last gasp of a marriage.”
In AA meetings they call that a “geographical cure” and the problem is the problem move with you.
Well, I’m not so sure. Getting the heck out of SoCal is a BIIIIIG step in the right direction. It’s bad enough being a regular schmoe there much less a cop. Lots of good calm less stress family friendly places across the country where you can live better on a cop salary than in SoCal.
“Getting the heck out of SoCal is a BIIIIIG step in the right direction.”
Maybe so, but this is not what he doing. He’s moving from one part of So. Cal to another part of So. Cal.
What’s that saying? “Wherever you go, there you are?”
Or sumtin’ like that.
I don’t know how anyone survives SoCal. Even if you are well off, over 150K, it’s still a fortune to keep up with everyone else.
“… it’s still a fortune to keep up with everyone else.”
The secret for survival is the feeling - the KNOWING - that you do not have to keep up with everyone else.
Follow a different drummer and all that other nifty Thoreau stuff.
True for So. Cal, true for most anywhere.
True, Combo! Also I discussed the ways an confirmed bachelor engineer can save tons of money while taking advantage of the competitive job market in engineering - while staying in Southern California. Be a permanent renter, travel light. Break the lease when you move to where your next job is three years later. That has to be a worthwhile move, at least a 15% increase in salary. Keep commutes under 10 miles and that extends yor car’s life. Use the time saved by moving to your job by long workouts to sweat out the toxins. Repeat this over and over. Never burn bridges. You develop a great network, extend your life, and increase your savings.
I got so that I had so much savings in my traditional 401k that I should invest only in Roth 401ks from that point on. It makes living standard tight, but diversifies my tax avoidance. You really don’t want to be in a high tax bracket anyway when you retire. And California might be the place i retire if my assets are mostly in no taxable areas.
Not sure I can agree with you there.
I witnessed the inward-focused, self-serving stagnation in CT for years. The outcomes: corporations left. The Free Sh*t Army arrived in droves, secure in the knowledge that they would be welcomed by a nanny state who used their arrival to go hog-wild hiring state employee leeches, most of them sub-literate. Taxes blossomed and bloomed. The education system became the last refuge of the unemployable ideologues. The stalwart denizens use the argument “It costs a LOT to live here. That means we have a HIGH quality of life”. “We spend a LOT on education. That means we have the BEST educational system in the country”.
I moved. Best thing I ever did.
Sometimes a geographic cure is simply that. An opportunity to wipe the slime off your feet.
I once heard a cop say that the job can devour you.
How many homeless guys did your nice cop neighbor beat to death?
I started to type a nasty reply, but no. He’s a good guy. He has love and family in his life. Who knows what’s in his or anyone’s heart. All I know is what I see of him or hear from him when we talk. Seems salt of the earth. I’m sure you’d like him too and he’d like you and sympathize with your frustrations over the gun laws in Ca for honest law abiding citizens.
Those LIEberal gun laws are costing me a lot of money to stand by my principles. Money I earned and money I risked in my investments. This is why I hate nanny statists. The same type cost Eric Tarner his life. The nanny state of New York drove the underground economy in cigarettes that Mr. Garner was part of. Cop enforcing nanny state laws kills black man. How fitting of an example to show the hypocrisy of “do gooders.”
I met good cops a long time ago. a girlfriend and I stayed overnight at her sisters place. Her sisters husband is a cop. That was in the 90s before many of he nanny sate laws were toughened and before much of the militarization.
I still think your cop friend will kill victimless people like Garner if
it is required of his job.
Don’t be offended. You are not the cop. And even Edward Snowden was first attracted to work for the NSA because of his anger over 9/11. I too, was angry over 9/11 and was also feeling I was helping the world by being in the defense industry.
I am not saying a cop-less or defense-less society would be ideal. It isn’t. We need both. What we do not need is the nanny state, the vi pitiless crime laws, social engineering laws, and the world cop militarization.
Those LIEberal gun laws are costing me a lot of money to stand by my principles.
Couldn’t you just rent a storage locker in AZ? Or pay an AZ gun-shop owner to store some things for you? Visit your firearms a couple of times a year. That sounds way way cheaper than paying for an apartment that you don’t need!
How can you choose to live in one of if not the biggest nanny states? And structuring your life over the difference between a 30 round magazine and a 10 round magazine? Cmon, have you ever in real life, in the real world ran out and needed that 11th or 12th bullet? Can’t ua just carry another clip?
It is the principle. Guys give me a break. I have been doing this indulgence for only 18 months. Still wanting to get my foot in the door of some great software opportunities in commercial in Phoenix. But then retirement is 12 years away. Plus I hate moving. Yes I have enough furnishings to fill a three bedroom place with a garage, so I would have to rent a house in OC.
I am a passionate voluntaryist. I am the “Phoney Scandals” of Facebook and probably my state worshipping FB friends long ago unfollowed me.
I am emotionally attached to the gun freedom in Arizona. These Arizonans are “my people.” I love California in many ways too. California has no “stop and identify” law. Arizona does. I don’t get much of a tax advantage being an Arizona resident
and California nonresident.
And I will know next year early, maybe in six weeks, of any compensation increase in my new company. relief in the form of salary increase would be a good thing.
Wait, so all these phony scandals posts here are you? Am I the only moron here that didnt know this?
This is for Housing Analyst:
“More jobs, higher wages: recovery starts to hit home
The U.S. added 321,000 jobs in November — a much stronger number than expected — but perhaps even more significant average wages jumped 0.4 percent in November, double what economists had been expecting.”
We are on our way — wages stepping up to match high home prices! I love the smell of inflation in the morning! LOL
Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate, and the rate of homeownership (I use the term loosely, of course) continue to plummet. The marks just aren’t getting the message…
“The marks just aren’t getting the message…”
Maybe they see their wide-eyed friends who took the no-doc mortgage bait staggering about like Yosemite Sam.
Can’t let a Yosemite Sam reference go by without saying, good work!
Bah — declining labor force participation is just boomers getting old and retiring
http://qz.com/286213/the-chart-obama-haters-love-most-and-the-truth-behind-it/
Guess again.
Chronic underemployment and collapsing demand resulting in cratering prices.
Cheers!
Boomers are either underwater on their houses or getting 1% on their savings. None of us are even talking retirement, because we can’t. SS will take care of us, right? LOL
That’s one sweet piece of cherry-picking you found there, though.
How did boomers get underwater on their houses? If a boomer is 60, he should have bought 20 years ago, if not paid the house off already. They should easily be in a position to sell and downsize. I guess they all cash out HELOC’d in 2005?
I can’t tell you how many times I’ve been researching particular properties of interest, and going into the county records, that’s exactly what I find.
The last real sale was some time in the early-mid 90’s usually. Then, there is an bank re-purchase in the past five years at a price (never a round number, because it’s a mortgage balance) that is on the order of twice what the owners paid 20 years ago. And this is in SW-Central VA, not known for being a hotbed of bubblemania.
The other cause IMO is extra long term mortgages for people constantly moving for work during their productive years. I think a any 30 year mortgage even for someone in their 30’s is iffy at best, but OK it can work in theory. But who stays put for 30 years in one house any more? Those jobs don’t exist any longer with the possible exceptions of government and academia. If you move 10 years into a 30 year mortgage, is your next mortgage for 20 years or less, or do you start the 30 year clock over again? I bet dollars to donuts almost everyone does the latter these days. If you do, you’re setting a financial death trap for yourself.
Any thoughts on why Obama has a case of Spitzer face in that photo?
“But now let’s look at the same data, but confine it to just people in their prime working years, aged 25 to 54—the seventh chart. This helps us strip out the surging ranks of older baby-boomers. It also strips out the ranks of those between the ages of 16 and 24, where increasing college attendance has been decreasing employment participation fairly steadily for at least 15 years.”
This is the chart, the last one, that I mentioned the other day.
http://img.qz.com/2014/10/us-employment-population-25-54-us-employment-to-population-ratio-25-54_chartbuilder.png
Meanwhile prices of everything continue to fall apart.
On the employment front;
Labor Force Participation Rate At 37 Year Lows And Falling
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000
Come on HA… higher wages and cheap gas. What’s not to like? LOL
Wages already fell my friend. Enjoy the falling prices. They’ve got a long way to fall.
Burger flippers making 5% more per year! They need $500K starter homes!
Gee, maybe the banks that have been fraudulently holding all this inventory off the market to manipulate housing prices will really start to deal now, huh? I mean, since we’re in the clear as to deflationary recessions and all that kind of thing.
Where does this $500K starter home nonsense come from? The median house price nationally is $250K, Which means, the median starter home nationally is around $125K to 150K. At $150K with even nothing down and a 4% 30 year fixed mortgage, it’s $850-900 a month including tax and insurance in most parts of the country. A couple working for minimum wage flipping burgers full time earns $2500 a month, making the house payment 2.5 times income which is what everyone on the HBB always says is appropriate.
Except when it isn’t I guess….
Slithers, Slithers, Slithers…. median sale price of SFR is $206k which is 5x median income. Far above the historical 2x.
Head fake? Obama never signed amnesty order
National Archives official confirms shocker – no such filing exists
Published: 2 days ago
NEW YORK – It’s common knowledge President Obama signed an executive order directing the Department of Homeland Security to forgive millions of illegal aliens for their past violations of immigration law, right?
Wrong.
Today the National Archives and Records Administration, responsible for maintaining such filings, said no such executive order was ever signed or filed, confirming WND’s report Wednesday.
A National Archives librarian, Jeffrey Hartley, made the confirmation in an email Thursday to WND.
“As I indicated, it would appear that there is not an Executive Order stemming from the President’s remarks on November 20 on immigration,” Hartley wrote.
Hartley said that neither of the executive orders Obama signed in Las Vegas the day after his announcement fulfill his plan to defer deportations and grant work permits to up to 5 million illegal aliens.
“The only two documents that I have located are two Presidential Memoranda, which are available from the White House site,” Hartley’s email continued. “They can also be found in the November 26, 2014 issue of the Federal Register.”
The two documents Hartley referenced were the two executive orders Obama signed in Las Vegas Nov. 21.
One was a presidential proclamation creating a White House Task Force on New Americans and the other a presidential memorandum instructing the secretaries of State and Homeland Security to consult with various governmental and non-governmental entities to reduce costs and improve service in issuing immigrant and non-immigrant visas.
What do YOU think? Why didn’t Obama actually sign an amnesty order? Sound off in today’s WND poll!
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2014/12/head-fake-obama-never-signed-amnesty-order/#SQrgV8AtoKOaGV6o.99
Just found out today from a letter from my bank that my credit score is 813. Not that I really was trying to find out anyway. They say they got this info from Experian. IMO, debt is for dummies. Even if this was a real housing bust with prices at 1997 levels, a 55 year old would be nuts to get a mortgage, even a fifteen year mortgage. I would be an idiot to get a loan.
“Just found out today from a letter from my bank that my credit score is 813.”
A good credit score is a terrible thing to waste.
Come on by and pay me a visit and maybe we can talk a bit over a cup of coffee (I’ll buy!) about a few I ideas I have about Unleashing The True Potential That Lies Dormant In Your Credit Score.
And as a sincere token of appreciation and gratitude for you showing up I will be happy to present to you a book - a bestselling and monumental piece of work by a man of pure genius named David Lereah, a book which proudly and boldly asks the question everyone on the planet is asking themselves: “Are You Missing The Real Estate Boom?”
Hurry, only a few copies remain! You snooze, you lose.
LOLZ
Disagree on that, am about that age and completely debt free…I did buy a house in 1997 and would do it again today n a heartbeat at that price, the total monthly PITI outlay was $1000, much less than the $1500 I pay for rent now and I no longer have the MI deduction. Sold that place in early 2007 (thanks in large part to following the HBB) and walked away with $200K cash tax free.
Will probably buy again someday if it is equal to or less expensive than monthly rent, sale price is less than 10 years rent, and the market appears to be stable as it was in 1997…none of that is the case now so I’m renting more or less happily. Did NOT buy my last place as an investment but enjoyed owning it for 10 years and even miss the projects I took on, making sawdust, etc… Am not concerned with taking a mortgage on as I’d make a big down payment, go with a 15 year mortgage, and one way or the other will have a monthly housing expense anyway barring homelessness. Could move to the midwest and pay cash for a nice place but am firmly committed to sticking with Kaiser Foundation for health care, they are the insurer AND provider…and still enjoy living in Calif. despite all its faults
Bluto — we bought in NorCal the year before, and came out great. One sign it is a good time to buy is when all your prospective new neighbors warn you that you would be crazy to buy, given how much money everyone who owns real estate is losing.
Give me a heads up when you think prices in CA are reasonable again, and I’ll plan to do the same. We’re not there yet.
I hope we do see reasonable prices again in northern Calif. and I’m counting on the HBB and the oftwominds blog to figure out the right time to buy again, both were very accurate on the leadup to Bubble 1.0 popping…felt I had my finger on the pulse of the bubble thanks to the HBB in early 2007 and needed to sell quickly and did so by pricing my place about $10K under the market. In retrospect I probably should tried buying again in 2009 (not 2011) but I failed to anticipate the hordes of flippers and speculators that descended on Sonoma Co. like a swarm of voracious locusts and shut out many that were attempting to buy a house for the right reason…TO LIVE IN IT.
Any thoughts on whether laws may eventually be passed outlawing investors from other countries to buy residential housing units that should rightfully be owned and occupied by American families? I don’t see what our tax dollars are buying these days, given that our politicians are all too happy to throw American families under the bus to favor the interests of foreigners.
What’s up with that?
I’ve wondered if that might happen eventually, do know that ownership by foreigners is restricted in some other countries, Mexico being one. The flippers and speculators locally appear to be citizens and from what I’ve read there is very little foreign investment in residential RE here in Sonoma Co….but it is a major issue 50 miles south in San Francisco.
I know you guys in the bear pit are very smart and resourceful folks. Everyone keeps talking about inflation of the currency. Can you guys list the ways that more currency is getting into the system and lowering the value of existing currency?
I was reading an article recently and they seemed to think that the currency created to buy bonds was ending up in commercial bank accounts where it would be loaned out. A lot of it still sits as excess reserves at the FED.
I think people are missing a big step in QE. First of all the primary dealers have to buy the bonds first before they are selling them to the FED. It appears the profit that they make is simply by buying and flipping the bonds. Really the treasury or investor gets the currency when it sells bonds to the primary dealers. I think there is a big misconception that the primary dealers somehow get all these bonds for free and then get free cash from the FED.
Theoretically the FED has converted a lot of bonds into cash for investors and the treasury. Eventually when the bonds mature cash would be pulled out of the system.The bonds could be rolled over also. Seems like a prudent investor might study the timeframes of these bond maturities.
The stock market.
Stocks have been inflated by the money at is being printed. House prices are still too artificially inflated. However not as much as they would be if Americans were as gullible as they were in 2005. The high price of stocks and people cashing in, somewhat finances purchases of houses.
The smart investors realize gains on the most bubbled asset and park the proceeds in cash for awhile before figuring which asset class has been depressed in the cycle. Then slowly shift into that lowest asset class.
Selfishly hoarding fiat money while cashing in.
Pssssst … buy ACHN.
Can anyone name one city east of the Rockies that has a higher quality of life than Bend, OR? We cant all afford Santa Barbara/San Luis Obispo/Carmel/Santa Cruz, CA so I went with Bend.
Loser. Make more money. Nothing beats Santa Cruz.
Geez! I think enough is enough when it comes to my income. I lived in SC for 2 yrs. SB for 8, SLO for 16 yrs. I’ll take SLO for the weather, wineries, activities, surf and cool people.
SC is over-run on weekends with the San Jose kooks.
But Bend has caught my attention as I am a fly-fisherman.
If you are an angler, then it makes total sense for you to go where the fish are.
Listening to the local RE (Las Vegas) radio show, joy due to:
National REIA Applauds House Passage of Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act
nationalreia.com/national-reia-applauds-house-passage-of-mortgage-forgiveness-debt-relief-act/
Hosts have switched their pitch from “beware of coming mortgage rate hikes” to praising Vegas’ “balanced” market - win, win for both sellers and buyers, though “you sellers might be listing your places too high.” Everything’s peachy keen here; agent host says business is good, “plenty of sales lately.” “Don’t try to time the market.” “Buyer urgency is picking up.”
IDK, maybe, but lately all I get is “price reduced” emails. I continue to pay a high rent for a not so great place.
“The U.S. Senate is expected to take swift action on the measure and President Obama is expected to sign the measure upon passage in the Senate.”
The truly vile and disgusting stuff is fully bi-partisan, always. Doubt we’ll see any of the usual suspects here trying to score their partisan points on this one. Have at it, guys!
Am I missing it, or is this short-sale forgiveness likely to result in a deluge of new listings and prices getting hammered?
I’m also wondering who pays for all the billions in tax breaks that are summarily extended to homeowners whose debt is forgiven. I suppose if you don’t know who pays for a tax break, there is a good chance it is you.
Am I missing it, or is this short-sale forgiveness likely to result in a deluge of new listings and prices getting hammered?
Avoiding that effect is quite likely precisely why they are passing it for tax-year 20_14_, right at the end of calendar year 2014.
In other words, for almost the entire year, sellers were under the mistaken impression that they would be taxed on forgiven debt incurred this year.
Bet they only renew it through Dec 31, 2014 this time around—and then cover 2015 at the 11th hour again next December.
I wish you were right, but the number of recent listings in the area where we need to sell my parents’ home early next year makes me wonder.
Of course, this could also be the Ferguson effect (we’re talking four miles walking distance to the east of downtown, in the school district where Michael Brown attended his sophomore year of HS).
Prime_Is_Contained said:
Bet they only renew it through Dec 31, 2014 this time around—and then cover 2015 at the 11th hour again next December.
They said they hoped Heller would push for a later expiration date (one said it should be “permanent”
), but you’ll probably win that bet. Got to keep that crowd heading for the exit door under control to maintain Vegas’ newly “balanced” market.
Whac-A-Bubble™ said:
Am I missing it, or is this short-sale forgiveness likely to result in a deluge of new listings and prices getting hammered?
I would think so, especially here in Vegas, and I was waiting for the radio guys to acknowledge it, but no.
Gas is at $2.779/gal at CostCo and I’m loving it! Plummeting oil prices are positively bullish for the American economy, as lower driving costs free up disposable income for other relatively more useful expenditures than making oil company executives richer than Croesus.
The new economics of oil
Sheikhs v shale
The economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market will be healthier
Dec 6th 2014 | From the print edition
THE official charter of OPEC states that the group’s goal is “the stabilisation of prices in international oil markets”. It has not been doing a very good job. In June the price of a barrel of oil, then almost $115, began to slide; it now stands close to $70.
This near-40% plunge is thanks partly to the sluggish world economy, which is consuming less oil than markets had anticipated, and partly to OPEC itself, which has produced more than markets expected. But the main culprits are the oilmen of North Dakota and Texas. Over the past four years, as the price hovered around $110 a barrel, they have set about extracting oil from shale formations previously considered unviable. Their manic drilling—they have completed perhaps 20,000 new wells since 2010, more than ten times Saudi Arabia’s tally—has boosted America’s oil production by a third, to nearly 9m barrels a day (b/d). That is just 1m b/d short of Saudi Arabia’s output. The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus.
…
Commodities
Small Oil Drillers Feel Brunt of Crude’s Decline
Some Stocks Have Lost Half Their Market Value or More in the Past Month
By Dan Strumpf
Dec. 5, 2014 5:36 p.m. ET
The selloff in crude prices has bruised energy companies big and small, but none have felt the pain worse than the nation’s heavily indebted oil drillers.
Shares of small, North America-based oil and gas producers that loaded up on debt during times of high oil prices have plunged in the past month, in some cases losing half their market value or more.
Shares of Goodrich Petroleum Corp. have plunged 87% from their peak in June and 49% in the past month. Energy XXI Ltd. ’s stock is down 51% in a month. Halcon Resources Corp. has fallen 36% in that time.
In the years before 2014’s oil-price crash, these and other companies sold bonds and took out loans to fuel rapid growth in new and often costly fields across the U.S. That borrowing was easier to stomach when oil prices were $100 a barrel, but with U.S. crude down 39% in nearly six months, investors fear that some firms face slowing growth rates, reduced profits or a potential cash crunch.
On Friday, U.S. oil prices fell to a more than five-year low. The front-month oil contract lost 97 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $65.84 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, exerting further downward pressure on many oil-company shares.
Some investors are holding on to the shares of smaller and indebted drillers, reluctant to sell with prices so low. Others are paring back exposure, unwilling to ride out the volatility amid a global oil-supply glut that shows few signs of abating.
“The earnings are going to go down, the revenues are going to go down and in some cases there will be concerns about liquidity,” said Eric Green, a portfolio manager who helps manage $3 billion in equity investments at Penn Capital Management.
…
Hellmouth
12.06.14
The Fiery Underground Oil Pit Eating L.A.
Formless and ancient things from the depths of our planet move beneath Los Angeles, unexpectedly setting fire to sidewalks and burning whole businesses to the ground. Welcome to urban life atop a still-active oil field.
Sliding around beneath the surface of Los Angeles is something dark, primordial, and without form. It seeps up into the city from below, through even the smallest cracks and drains. Infernal, it can cause fires and explosions; toxic, it can debilitate, poison, and kill.
Near downtown Los Angeles, at 14th Place and Hill Street, a small extraction firm called the St. James Oil Corporation runs an active oil well. In 2006, the firm presided over a routine steam-injection procedure known as “well stimulation.” The purpose was simple: a careful and sustained application of steam would heat up, liquefy, and thus make available for easier harvesting some of the thick petroleum deposits, or heavy oil, beneath the neighborhood.
But things didn’t quite go as planned. As explained by the Center for Land Use Interpretation—a local non-profit group dedicated to documenting and analyzing land usage throughout the United States—“the subterranean pressure forced oily ooze and smells out of the ground,” causing toxic “goo” to bubble over “into storm drains, streets, and basements.” The sudden appearance of this nauseating black tide actually destabilized the nearby road surface, leading to its emergency closure, and 130 people had to be evacuated. It took weeks to pump dangerous petroleum byproducts out of the basements and to resurface the street; the firm itself was later sued by the city.
…
Did China’s efforts to use rate cuts to prop up their housing market succeed?
Forbes Asia 12/02/2014 @ 11:35AM
China’s Housing Market Still Struggling After the Interest Rate Cut
Junheng Li
The Chinese central bank, or People’s Bank of China (PBOC), cut interest rates on Nov. 21 in a move widely viewed as an attempt to stimulate growth. So far, however, our tracking of the Chinese housing market suggests that the rate cut has had a much tamer impact than previous policy changes.
Last week, the week following an interest rate cut, primary home transaction volume increased by 6% week-over-week for both units and square meters sold nationwide. That compares to 100% and 105% week-on-week increases, respectively, during the week immediately after September 30, when Chinese authorities announced that they were relaxing requirements for mortgage lending. Secondary home transactions changed by -1.4% and 2.2% in units and square meters sold nationwide, compared to 238% and 244% respective increases during the week following the September mortgage policy change. (See charts below)
However, during the same week the offshore market surged by ~4%, led by the insurance (+14%) and property (+12%) sectors. The onshore market surged by 8.7% led by real estate (17%) and financials (17%).
We believe the stock market’s recent performance reflects an unwarranted optimism. Investors are falsely assuming that the latest PBOC benchmark cut and the future rate cuts (including RRR cuts and other expansionary open market and repo actions) will reverse the deterioration of the residential housing sector, the lynchpin of China’s economy.
The recent policy stimulus will likely mitigate and delay the decline in home prices and transactions, and may even bump up construction-related activities in the near term. However, it will not reverse the weakening of the property market, both secondary and primary.
…
Chinese Home Prices Slide For The 7th Straight Month
Nov. 30, 2014, 2:58 PM
A man fishes near rows of newly built apartments in Beijing on November 27, 2014© AFP Greg Baker
Shanghai (AFP) - China’s housing prices fell on a monthly basis for the seventh straight month in November, a survey showed Sunday, with the market yet to feel the full impact of an interest rate cut.
The average price of a new home in China’s 100 major cities was 10,589 yuan ($1,736) per square metre in November, down 0.38 percent from October, the independent China Index Academy said in a statement.
The fall was a slight improvement from the 0.40 percent month-on-month drop in October, previous figures showed.
“We expect the interest rate cut to kick in next year,” Bai Yanjun, research director for the China Index Academy, told AFP.
“We still believe the market is under downward pressure for the rest of 2014 because the current home inventory levels in first-tier and major second-tier cities are still high,” he said.
…
Economist warn of entailing risk after rate cuts
2014-12-05 08:30 Xinhua
Web Editor: Qin Dexing
China’s recent interest rate cuts may entail risk in the property sector, and be ineffective in realizing the original intention: reducing the cost of financing.
China should be aware of home price rises brought by the rate cuts, said Yi Xianrong of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank cut rates almost two weeks ago for the first time in more than two years. The declared intention was the lowering of market interest rates and private financing costs.
Yi sees things differently. He argues that the cuts did not help firms raise funds but rather revitalized the comatose real estate market and delivered a sharp kick to the slumbering stock market.
From Nov. 24 to 30, immediately after the cuts, some 2,360 apartments were traded in Beijing, up 54 percent week-on-week and with the average price increasing by 10 percent.
Yi worries that if prices rise rampantly it may lead to a bubble and financial crisis.
The property sector boom began ten years ago due to open policies, loose monetary circumstance and growing demand. Its seemingly uncontrolled growth followed by acute softening is a cause for concern.
…
NYPD Tells Father They’re ‘Too Busy’ With Garner Protests To Search For Missing Son
Andreas Robbins left suicide note saying he was going to jump off bridge
by Jenny Awford | Daily Mail | December 6, 2014
A father was left speechless after police told him they are ‘too busy’ dealing with Eric Garner protests to search for his suicidal son.
Andreas Robbins, 25, from Stuyvesant, New York, left a suicide note saying he was going to jump off the George Washington Bridge on Monday night – and hasn’t been seen since.
His father Columbia University Professor Bruce Robbins said the NYPD was initially helpful, but now officers are busy dealing with thousands of protesters disrupting traffic and staging ‘die-ins’.
‘I was kind of speechless,’ said Mr Robbins. ‘A detective basically said, ‘There’s no one out to take your case because everyone is out there dealing with the consequences of the Eric Garner case’.’
SOCIAL JUSTICE BABY!!
phony scandals
Region IV