Bits Bucket for December 8, 2014
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Region VIII
Region VIII brown cloud forecast
http://www.colorado.gov/airquality/
And just for MacBeth (what’s your walkscore?) a picture of Boulder
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20141207_114251_951-vmnThums.jpg
Region VIII
If you are going to do something in Region IX today, do it well (and leave something witchy).
JOBS! JOBS! JOBS!
http://www.denverpost.com/business/ci_27091816/colorado-economy-expected-stay-strong-into-2015
HOUSING! HOUSING! HOUSING!
http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2014/12/metro-denver-housing-inventory-continues-to.html
Region VIII
I wonder if these predictions are as wildly far off as the predictions from the other thread for the new house builders in Az were for 2014?
i still get 20-30 job offers a week, of course 99% of them have no clue how to state the pay….
unlimited income, earn what your are worth, the sky is the limit, no ceilings here, will pay for a metrocard and lunch all sorts of fluky flaky paychecks
let alone the astronomical amounts of former real jobs that somehow turned into intern jobs…….yep all’s well
azcrater
I never understood the appeal of Denver in the flatland.
Golden, Durango or Boulder, sure.
I never understood the appeal of Denver in the flatland.
Denver was likely the easy way out.
Back in the day St Louis or New Orleans along the Mississippi meant “out west.” Any further west meant going by way of the Oregon Trail or south through a blazing desert, both routes filled with wild animals, Indians and criminals. Crossing the mountains between Denver and Salt Lake City was not an option. Otherwise it was a paddle wheel ship to Panama, a brutal land crossing through the steamy jungle, and another paddle wheel ship to San Francisco. Have to pull a bad tooth or give birth along the way? Heck, the old days were miserable!
And speaking of brown cloud, it’s Warmist Warming Monday
“Oil, gas and coal interests that spent millions to help elect Republicans this year are moving to take advantage of expanded GOP power in Washington and state capitals to thwart Obama administration environmental rules.
With support from industry lobbyists, many Republicans are planning to make the Environmental Protection Agency a primary political target, presenting it as a symbol of the kind of big-government philosophy they think can unify social and economic conservatives in opposition.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/fossil-fuel-lobbyists-bolstered-by-gop-wins-work-to-curb-environmental-rules/2014/12/07/3ef05bc0-79b9-11e4-9a27-6fdbc612bff8_story.html
This is an editorial written by Michael Bloomberg, who not only wants to grab your guns and take away your Big Gulps, but wants to end American Exceptionalism and make everybody live in tiny apartments and ride bicycles and trains like a bunch of socialist Europeans, LOLZ
“In the debate over how to address climate change, there is a glaring gap between the levels of carbon reductions the world must achieve to avert the worst consequences of global warming and the levels of reductions that national governments have been willing to make thus far. Bridging that gap will require cities and businesses — the chief drivers of carbon emissions — to play a leading role”
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-12-08/cities-and-markets-can-fight-climate-change
Got Agenda 21?
… make everybody live in tiny apartments and ride bicycles and trains …
Meanwhile, he lives in an 8,000 square foot apartment and travels on a private plane to his other homes in the Hamptons, Bermuda and London!
Speaking of Agenda 21
“a multitude of uniform, unidentifiable houses, lined up inflexibly, at uniform distances, on uniform roads, in a treeless communal waste, inhabited by people of the same class, the same income, the same age group, witnessing the same television performances, eating the same tasteless prefabricated foods, from the same freezers, conforming in every outward and inward respect to a common world.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/the-world-is-becoming-ever-more-suburban-2014-12
P.S. your walkscore sucks
Camazotz v. Ferguson…
That quote sounds like something some fancy pants intellectual wrote in the 1950s, when the suburbs were growing rapidly. You just need to throw in a complaint about the tailfins on the cars being produced at the time.
Sounds like something out of Fritz Lang’s METROPLIS.
Every year when I do my income taxes, I note the change in market value of the rental properties. The average for 2014 has been just 3%. The increase for 2013 was over 14%. The market is clearly moderating in the Sacramento foothills.
You’re broke J Fruad, get used to it. Enjoy Christmas cause next year you will see the “moderation” turn to losses. 2015, prediction, Pain.
“But fraud generates risk, and risk eventually breaks out in the “safest” parts of the financial plumbing, the ones nobody gives a second thought to because they’re “low risk.” At some point, the ball will drop in a black slot, and keep dropping in a black slot as incredulous punters keep “buying the dip” and betting on red.”
When they press the button, all those gains turn to losses in the blink of an eye.
How foamy is your runway?
lolz^
Nothing wrong with being a weekend wally Jingle_Fraud…. but you’re no general contractor.
PS- How far underwater are you on the house you bought in 2007?
Chronic degenerate gamblers will never tell you about their losses, only their wins. Fraud mates.
“Conversely; since literally the days of Rome, an ounce of gold has been sufficient to fully clothe a man in the fine attire of his era. Two thousand years ago; that ounce of gold would have purchased a quality toga, sandals, and belt. In more recent centuries; it has been sufficient to buy a finely-tailored suit.”
Comment by jingle male
2010-03-17 15:34:24
It is 1900 sf, and yes it does have a pool, which is not the best for a rental unit, but the people in there want to stay long term. I own a couple of other houses on the same street and lived on the street from 1990-2004 so I am quite comfortable with the area and market.
One bought in 07 and owns a couple of others on the same street?
Lots to be told.
Comment by jingle male
2010-03-17 15:47:40
I own 8 homes and just put the 9th in escrow. Yes, I am a landlord. A few I have owned for many years, 2 are debt free. The one I just refinanced with the Obama plan I purchased in Nov. 2007. I have lost $100,000 in “equity” value. I have purchased 4 more since then all at prices well under $100/sf and with cash flow.
Indeed, a very interesting thread from the past.
bow down to jingle male!
Yeah. A thread enlightening why the truth of building costs is so threatening to J.Frauds distorted world.
I am so flattered you are all seeking my previous posts on the HBB so you can see how it is done. I post here so people can see that housing is not always the “Debbie Downer” some make it out to be.
Pay attention and you will see people like myself who actually provide a nice service to the people who choose to rent and make a reasonable profit at the same time. Ben Jones is like that too!
Ben Jones doesn’t need a liar speaking for him.
“Ben Jones is like that too!”
Except he plays his hand much closer to the vest.
I ended up passing on buying the 1900 SF home.
The other two homes have had almost zero vacancy for many years. Together they provide over $800/mon cash flow. I really like cash flow.
Here is an irony, I bought the first one of these tow in 1990 and was an FB by 1994 (30% drop in value). That was a good lesson and part of why I did not buy in 2005-2007 (along with the HBB).
L I A R
I will tell you who bought it: American Homes for Rent.
I am not under water on any of my properties, but the first house I bought in late 2007 has been a marginal investment. ROI of about 5-6% on my invested capital, all from cash flow, nothing from appreciation. Luckily, I was saved by a HARP refi in 2009, which really improved my cash flow and debt repayment.
Good for you, Jingle!
Ignore the obvious trolls inhabiting this here blog
Like you for one!
You’re no more positive on those rotting dumps than you are a “general contractor”.
So funny, thanks for the morning entertainment bringing up that old JFraud thread. 9 properties? Cripes a true shill.
And drawing a distinction between going all in in 2007 and 2009 is a distinction without a difference. There will be place in time to buy a house. It hasn’t arrived yet.
Someday you will own a house HA.
I don’t need another depreciating asset Jingle_Fraud.
“I note the change in market value…”
The z-estimate is fantasy. The market value is only real on the day you sell.
Case in point: The Zestimate™s on 2000 sq foot homes near Ferguson, MO were north of $100K before the Intifada broke out last summer. Now they are off by over 30% — dropping nearly as fast as the price of a barrel of bubbling crude.
Jed is now broke and he’s packing up his bags and moving out of Bever-Lee.
Prices in Somalia have crashed too.
What does that have to do with San Francisco real estate or any other desirable area with jobs?
I guess we forgot about Somalia. That changes the conversation how?
I doubt many folks are going to consider relocating from SF to Somalia. However, if this episode plays out the way the last one did, in the early 1990s, a lot of Californians may relocate to the nicer surrounding suburbs of the St. Louis metro, where Ferguson is one of the less nice suburbs.
Problem with your logic:
Ferguson RE is crashing, therefore ALL RE is crashing.
I call bs.
No one leaves CA for an icy climate.
Impoverished hellholes like California isn’t anyones destination.
“No one leaves CA for an icy climate.”
We had lots of new neighbors in the early-1990s who traded in their modest California living spaces for commodious McMansions in the nice part of town with great heating systems. St. Louis is only cold from December-March, and warmer than most of California during the summers — not like much colder Chicago, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan.
“No one leaves CA for an icy climate.”
FWIW, I did just that. Am I happy about it? No fugg’n way despite being a debt free home owner. I can’t wait for “market forces” to return to the sunbelt.
Another case in point:
Zestimate value for a home I sold in 2013 was $360,000. Sold it for $420,000. HA knows about it. I shared the information with him, so he will confirm it! Paid $300,000 in 2010.
You proved nothing Jingle_Fraud.
Please describe your many losses. If you say there aren’t any that’s all I need to know.
Just checked on home prices in my old nabe, where my parents still own a home. Some are listed for under $30/sq ft. So anyone who that you have to pay well north of $200/sq ft for basic housing is completely misguided!
“…who believes that…
I hear there are homes in Detroit for under $10/SF. And in Somalia for $.50/SF. You just have to be willing to live there and it’s all good.
Or live in a hole like California.
The happiest city in America is in CA, it is 3rd happiest in the world. If things like happiness and high quality of life matter to ya.
Considering CA is the most impoverished state in the country, I don’t think there is much happiness there.
LOL@lola
And I bet with all those write offs you can make the 28% bracket!
Let’s just hope our friend never has an IRS audit.
Being afraid is no way to live.
Then why hide?
Naturally, over the higher Pomeranian.
Audit away. I have no fear because I don’t cheat. Why would I when my effective tax rate last year was 8.7%. Real estate has been very, very, good to me.
Given all your phony claims so far Jingle Fraud, anything you say is meaningless.
I believe you, for 9 years I ran my own company that required a lot of travel, under 10% effective tax rate was always a goal.
The average effective tax rate on corps is 12%. They just like to pretend it is the “highest” in the free world.
Here’s an idea: before you sign an agreement or contract, read it (especially if the line is dotted).
http://realtime.blog.palmbeachpost.com/2014/12/08/homeowner-fights-double-foreclosure-smackdown/
“The lurking debt left after a foreclosure is hitting Florida residents hard this year as a private firm files to collect on so-called “deficiency judgments”, which are often worth tens of thousands of dollars.”
No FB dollar shall be allowed to escape.
“But one homeowner is fighting back in a federal lawsuit seeking class action status on behalf of borrowers whose wages can be garnished and assets seized to pay off the leftover mortgage debt.”
Good luck with that, Chump.
“In Palm Beach County, about 240 deficiency judgment lawsuits have been filed by the Texas-based firm Dyck O’Neal. The suits often come as a surprise to homeowners who thought …”
“… thought …”
Bahahahaha … an interesting (and amusing) use of that word here.
“… their foreclosure battle ended when they saw their home sold at auction.”
Bahahahaha … people are smart … and am I ever glad.
“In the previous fiscal year, 2012, the Treasury had needed to redeem only $6,804,956,000,000 in Treasury securities, but then it needed to turn around and issue $7,924,651,000,000 in new securities—increasing the net debt held by the public by $1.119695 trillion.”
Doing that for several years has accumulated 18 trillion in public debt.
If 7 -8 trillion of treasuries are maturing every year there must be a lot of short term debt out there like bills and notes.
‘If 7 -8 trillion of treasuries are maturing every year there must be a lot of short term debt out there like bills and notes.’
That is my contention even if we get higher interest rates down the road. The government rolls over short term debt and issues new debt. I can not see them re-financing the whole 18 trillion in a year anyway. I don’t know why there is a fuss about higher interest rates toppling the government. The money supply gets inflated along the way.
Are these the people who will not declare bankruptcy because they strategically defaulted??
Does QE allow the govt to spend more than they take in from taxes?
If we are adding 1 trillion to the debt every year how long will it take for the interest to swallow up 50% of the tax base?
“The U.S. Treasury needed to pay off a record of approximately $7,546,726,000,000 in maturing Treasury securities in fiscal 2013, which ended last Monday, according to Treasury’s official accounting.
During the same period, the Treasury turned around and issued another $8,323,949,000,000 in new Treasury securities.”
“The Fed’s 4 years of QE, QE1, QE2, and QE3 has accumulated 36% of all Treasury securities between 5 years and 10 years in maturity plus 40% of those government bonds over 10 years in maturity as well as 25% of all the mortgage backed securities not owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.”
It looks to me that the FEDs bond buying is more about boosting stocks.
obama recovery 1.0
obama housing bubble 2.0
What happened to the Bush housing bubble (the one that collapsed on his watch)?
“Most importantly, they need to keep sovereign debt out of public hands in order to keep debt service payments remain low. This means governments have no escape from their massive and unprecedented money printing campaigns. Therefore, the value of fiat currencies is set to plummet when compared to precious metals.”
Isn’t this kind of thinking exactly what led to massive bubbling of PM prices in the recent episode?
Boosting stocks= the Wealth Effect. Psychologically, it is very, very important for people to think that their 401ks are doing alright. Pull that pin and the grenade goes off in 3, 2, 1 …
What if the underlying assets within those 401k’s are rigged to a point their value hinges on the next round of QE? What if those asset prices plunge overnight because their value is simply a mirage? Should they feel confident facebook will be around in 10 years?
I want value. I don’t care what the price of the stock is today. I want to know that if that company is liquidated tomorrow I will get paid. If all the assets are sold and all the senior liabilities are paid, is there any currency or value left for me as a shareholder?
Right now it appears people are buying cause they think that prices can be manipulated from here on out. I simply do not believe that.
I simply do not believe that.
Which is why I begrudginly sit in cash, which is risky in its own right. But where is there a reasonable risk/reward ratio where prices are based on fundamentals rather than speculation?
“We are, in short, down to the final myth that animates the blow-off phase of most bubbles: that of the omnipotent government/central bank which likes the status quo and has the power to maintain it. They don’t have that power, of course, or else financial bubbles would never burst and we’d still be living in the golden age of junk bonds, dot-coms and subprime mortgages.”
Good points, J. Last week I did shift some equities into bonds, but I too have a small pile of cash waiting.
Almost nothing is based on fundamentals now, but I guess the closest industries to fundamentals are low-visibility consumer staples. The only liquidation I can think of is Hostess, and there were ample warning signs that Hostess was going to play out almost exactly like Blue Star Airlines.
“Which is why I begrudginly sit in cash, which is risky in its own right.”
Wise man. But there isn’t any risk of doing so.
Geez. You are so full of crap.
“I want value.” Meaningless crap.
“I don’t care what the price of the stock is today.”
Oh for eff sake.
*Plonk*
Pensacola, FL Sale Prices Plunge 9% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/pensacola-fl-32507/home-values/
I notice these charts have data through 10/31/14. Any ideas when they kick over to include the November data? Wonder what that’s gonna show?
They post about 25 days after end of previous month as I recall. New YoY declines are showing up every month like blips on the radar. And older YoY declines are going ever deeper in the donkey crater.
You really think we can count on the corruption-riddled Chinese government to provide accurate economic data?
http://www.businessinsider.com/report-gold-obsessed-chinese-officers-graft-case-worth-5-billion-2014-12
I ask the same question about the US.
New York, London, Paris, Munich everybody talk about Crater Music
http://youtu.be/Avvh5H-EPWU
http://img.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_296w/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2014/12/04/Interactivity/Images/crop_296Switzerland_Donkey-0fba3-12885.jpg
lolz thats her!
You mean me climbing out of debt? Thank you, but I’m not halfway out yet.
Debt or not, your losses are irrecoverable.
HA, thanks for that, haven’t heard it in years. Here’s another favorite of mine from that era.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ybv4DOj-N0&spfreload=10
” McDonald’s reported a steeper-than-expected fall at global established restaurants in November, hurt by increased competition in the United States and the effect of a supplier scandal in China.
The market will be focusing on the chain’s big U.S. same-store sales miss, said R.J. Hottovy, Morningstar senior retail restaurant analyst, told CNBC. Comparable store sales fell 4.6 percent, more than double the predicted 2.1 percent. ”
does this meet the definition of cratering?
Maybe they should accept ebt cards?
^ What happens when you charge $5 for a beef grease wheel.
Which begets the question;
How do you lose money selling these grease filled donuts for $5 each? Give me the opportunity and I can do it profitably for $2.
50% off regular menu price at Region VIII Papa John’s today, LOLZ
“begets the question”
Well someone finally got it right.
So now you’re constructing donuts for $0.50/cubic inch, anywhere in the country? They aren’t making any more wheat subsidies ya know.
And we’re profitable building for $50/sq ft anywhere in the country too Donk.
But you know that already.
hi bear pit
I work at mcdonalds flipping burgers and make mccafe drinks. We have collapsing demand and rising input costs thanks to QE. How do we boost sales here?
In your case, simply imagine the product is worth twice as much and take out a loan. Live large.
“Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) is no small program, costing taxpayers more than the combined cost of federal welfare payments, housing subsidies, food stamps and school lunches. Attorneys receive taxpayer-funded fees each time they successfully place a client in the program, which incentivizes them to encourage clients to file disability claims. The fees are capped at 25 percent of the successful client’s SSDI award, or $6,000, whichever is less. Attorneys took in $1.2 billion in such fees in 2013, up from just $425 billion in 2011.”
“Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) is no small program…”
It’s the new unemployment program.
http://myarmybenefits.us.army.mil/Home/Benefit_Library/Federal_Benefits_Page/Social_Security_Disability.html?serv=148
My 17-y-o son mentioned a friend burned himself last week while manning the greasy stove at McD’s. Apparently they only had two guys doing the cooking and many more employees taking orders. Not sure if this relates to their “increasingly complicated menu”?
McDonald’s Nov. sales fall below estimates
Published: Dec 8, 2014 8:14 a.m. ET
By Chelsey Dulaney
McDonald’s Corp. posted sharper-than-expected sales declines across all of its divisions in November, as the fast-food giant continues to struggle with competition and a host of issues across its business.
Global sales fell 2.2% in November, excluding newly opened stores, while analysts had expected a 1.7% decline, according to Consensus Metrix. November’s dropoff followed a 0.5% sales slide in October that beat expectations.
In the U.S., sales fell 4.6% last month, far worse than the 1.9% drop in sales analysts had projected.
An increasingly complicated menu has slowed service in the U.S. as McDonald’s once-reliable base of younger customers have also defected to fast-casual chains boasting customized ordering and fresh ingredients, including Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc., and specialty-burger chains such as Five Guys.
…
Has the burger changed or is the currency that has changed reflecting the high prices?
The wages evaporated and they’re not going to triple to meet grossly inflated burger prices.
Debt donkeys and F@cked Buyers- Billions and billions will be served…
The Big Mac Index is cratering in most corners of the globe where hamburgers are sold.
McDonalds is NASTY. The only thing I can even stomach is the Filet-o-fish.
The Golden State of broke @ss loosers
“In California, foreign-born residents that entered in 2010 or later fell below the poverty line at a rate of 32%”
http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-California/2014/12/06/L-A-Poverty-Rate-More-Severe-Than-California-U-S
More California news
Michael Brown protesters in Berkeley looted the Whole Foods, LOLZ
http://www.sfgate.com/news/article/Protesters-plan-more-action-Sunday-after-a-night-5941613.php
There is nothing like peaceful, legal demonstrations to point out how wrong it is for police officers to use violence on innocent, unarmed youths.
It is really class warfare. The lower looter class vs. the upper looter class.
Protesters gonna protest - but me thinks for all the wrong reasons.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/chi-weekend-shootings-20141208-story.html#page=1
Are you telling us it’s gettin’ real in the Whole Foods parkin’ lot?
Indeed…”Got my 6 things for $90 bucks and got heck out”
And speaking of protests, here’s an article for all the badge lickers who get a tingle in their trousers any time the cops waste some black yout
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/08/nyregion/grand-juries-seldom-charge-police-officers-in-fatal-actions.html
“F*** tha police” — N.W.A.
Another article for the badge lickers and uniform fetishists
“This isn’t the first time that Pantaleo has been accused of violating the rights of a black man. Three previous lawsuits allege that he and other NYPD officers falsely arrested black men”
http://www.businessinsider.com/nypd-cop-daniel-pantaleo-sued-three-times-2014-12
The question “who polices the police?” had a band-aid response since the 1970s: “Internal affairs.” Internal Affairs is a blatantly silly concept from its own beginning. The police themselves police them? The libertarians for competing police agencies and for greatly deregulating the state and decriminalizing victimless crimes are getting a lot of attention lately.
Al Pacino was awesome in Serpico, go watch it if you haven’t seen it before
Haven’t seen it before. I shall.
I’m not usually a fan of rap or hip-hop, but I did like this Rob Hustle video, This Is What Happens When You Call the Cops:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IlY9C6pzxKc
The fuzz is pretty egalitarian when it comes to administering a beat down. You don’t have to be black.
Then there’s Chris Rock’s How Not to Get Your Ass Kicked by the Police, more geared to black folks, but good advice for everyone:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uj0mtxXEGE8
When children don’t have a father in the home, they often have behavior problems with all forms of authority.
When I was 7 my mom shot me and said: “wait till your father gets home.”
Serpico: Incidents like Eric Garner’s death drive wedge between police and society
Cowardly cops living by the ’shoot first, ask questions later’ mantra put the good guys in a bad light and threaten the public’s right to justice.
BY Frank Serpico
SPECIAL TO THE NEWS
Friday, December 5, 2014, 10:30 AM
nydailynews.com/new-york/serpico-wedge-driven-police-society-article-1.2034651
Comment by spook
2014-12-08 10:33:56
When children don’t have a father in the home, they often have behavior problems with all forms of authority.
The Delinquents
A Spate Of Rhino Killings
2000 Aug 22
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/the-delinquents/
I read today on Naomi Wolfe’s FB page that police forces are being sponsored by corporations. I didn’t believe it but it’s been going on for years. This arrangement has the potential to become truly frightening. Thoughts?
http://www.lawofficer.com/article/news/corporate-sponsorship-considered-for-new-york-sheriffs-department
http://www.democracynow.org/2014/10/29/arming_the_warrior_cop_from_guns
http://articles.baltimoresun.com/2010-01-14/news/bal-md.ci.horse14jan14_1_horse-unit-mounted-unit-slurpee
“Eric Garner’s death”
The jack boot of Government collecting the MASSIVE DRACONIAN taxes on tobacco.
Progressives sent these officers to protect government revenue, now they send rent-a-mobs out to protest those very actions.
#FundamentalTransformationOfAmerica
#ProgressivesAreTheRealEnemyOfAmerica
“NO Savory Cheese, Cranberry and Herb Mini Muffins- NO PEACE!”
LOL
Alternate Headline:
32% of foreign-born California residents identified as Democrat Party voters for life.
And you say Obama is bringing in millions more via amnesty? Gee I wonder why that could be. Oh right, I know…it’s all about families.
Smithers is BACK
Armed with the same strawman partisan BS as before…
Because housing is for the olds
“Older homeowners have emerged as the pillar of the housing market following the collapse in 2008. The homeownership rate for Americans age 65 and over has remained at 80 percent while dropping for every other age group.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-08/older-americans-gird-housing-with-high-ownership-rate.html
And when the baby boomer die-off gets into full swing, housing = Crater
The only sales I ever hear of are to fat 30 or 40- something hens, divorced or otherwise single with a few kids. Nevermind their total monthly cost just doubled or their 10 year old Honda with 200k miles on the clock needs to be replaced in 6 months. Basically the math-challenged. Runway foam.
I must be a “with it” boomer. But I am toward the tail end.
The admin assistant made a bundt cake and brought it in. Yes I fell off the wagon and had a slice. Awesome. Goes well with free coffee
“With it” - meaning I actually do have a clue: low expense cars. People I see every day on I-5 on my short commute leaving at 8am for work - assuming since it’s that late they have short commutes - driving a posh car just for 10 miles each way. Unless they do a lot of pleasure trips of long uninterrupted rides on weekends it just “don’t make sense” to have anything but a modest economy car.
My money goes into airplane rides, not cars. For one, flight is much safer than driving.
Bob Hope drugged and raped me in 1969.
You don’t even want to know what happened when Lena Dunham babysat me
With a cheshire cat grin?
I have an interesting phenomenon to report. While attempting to comment about the Cosby case I discovered the top 5 mens rights blogs are eerily silent on the issue?
1. A Voice For Men
2. The Rational Male
3. Dalrock
4. Return Of Kings
5. Chateau Heartiste
Thats right; not a single one of them have a dedicated thread/article on the biggest sexual misconduct story since Monica Lewinsky and President Clinton back in January of 1998.
Why is this surprising?
These top 5 “Manosphere” blogs ALL owe their popularity to the practice of:
1. Calling women out on their sexual lies.
2. Defending men slandered with, but not charged or convicted of rape.
3. Warning men not to get married because marital law is anti male.
4. Highlighting the feminist practice of expanding the definition of rape to include “regret sex”, “he used me for sex”, “didn’t call me the next day…”
5. Educating men about the female practice of cuckoldry, false paternity, divorce rape….
Though the Cosby story is tailor made for these blogs, they all seem to be avoiding the issue?
Is it me? Or is it just a coincidence NONE of the top 5 “mens rights” blogs have an article/thread on the biggest sexual misconduct story since Monica Lewinsky and President Clinton back in January of 1998.
If any of them have and I missed it, please provide the link.
I have my own theory which I will withhold pending any one else’s observation of this phenomenon.
thread titled ‘what are your views about the bill cosby allegations now?’
http://www.mgtowhq.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=6260
I have my own theory which I will withhold pending any one else’s observation of this phenomenon.
I felt really sorry for Bill Cosby when Ennis was killed, and that hasn’t changed. However, these recent revelations, and particularly the M.O., I find devastating especially since he likely wouldn’t have trouble bedding his conquests. But I’m way out of depth, so I’ll leave it to the psychologists.
rms, I was never really comfortable with the “Bosnian immigrant” convicted of the murder of his son. Then I saw an episode of Breaking Bad in which an ex con was hired to take the fall for a crime that would lead to Walter.
In addition, Ennis Cosby was murdered the same day Cosby attorneys received a FAXED demand for $40 million from a woman threatening to reveal she was his bastard daughter to The National Inquirer (Autumn Jackson.)
Ennis Cosby may have been set up. The woman with him admitted she did not actually see Ennis get shot (she says she drove off during and came back after the “robbery”)
And, interestingly, the Bosnian immigrant “robber” shot Cosby, but took nothing?
Thats not a robber, thats a hit man.
Ive never been fooled by Cosby’s “America’s dad” act; as top shelf Hollywood I suspect he was involved in some dirt; but drugging and raping these women is not it. They are a proxy for something worse.
Believe it or not, I also have a far more conspiratorial theory that won’t go away.
“They are a proxy for something worse.”
That’s the most disturbing theory I’ve seen floated here in a long while!
Spook never lets us down. More details please spook….
Raquel Welch babysat me in 1967. Hoo ya!
Japan is now in a recession
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-12-08/Japan-In-Recession-As-GDP-Contraction-Larger-Than-First-Estimated.html
“We’re potentially good but infinitely corruptible, and giving an unlimited monetary printing press to a government or group of banks is guaranteed to produce a dystopia of ever-greater debt and more centralized control, until the only remaining choice is between deflationary collapse or runaway inflation. ”
what is your choice pilgrim?
Any info on cratering real estate prices in Latin America?
beggar they neighbor?
By Silvana Ordoñez
2 hours ago
“Experts predict the situation in Venezuela will worsen as early as the first half of 2015.
“It will be a year of extreme scarcity,” Venezuelan economist Angel Garcia Banchs said. “What’s coming to Venezuela is chaos that will probably lead to barbarity and people looting. ”
The state of the Venezuelan economy is the result of years of economic mismanagement that the government, for years, was able to cover up by pumping oil revenues to support its populist policies. But this was when oil was at more than $100 per barrel, and despite declining oil production in Venezuela, revenues were enough to keep people happy.
LOL, yeah that’s Venezuela’s problems….oil prices. It’s not the fact that it was run by a despotic socialist for 15 years.
I’m guessing Venezuela real estate will be the first to crater, along with the socialist misrule of the former bus driver turned President thanks to a Pelosi-style mobocracy.
“Inflation has become the goal of every central bank on earth. This makes the mean reversion of interest rates inevitable, which will lead to a global sovereign debt crisis. To illustrate this point, the U.S. national debt officially eclipsed $18 trillion this week! This equates to a trillion dollars + per year just on interest payments once the Treasury is forced to pay a more normal rate on all that debt. Economic chaos and soaring inflation will then follow, which should send U.S. Investors flocking to gold en masse.”
18,000,000,000,000 * .05 % = 900,000,000,000
pfffft.
Just consider it a $10/mo increase in your rent bill for living in the US of A. Payable until eternity to the elite of the world. That’s only the price of a glass of wine. Put it on your HELOC.
BTW, just another thing you have backwards, people with debts to service do not “flock to gold”.
thank you sir u obviously dont know what the h@ll your talking about as usual. keep your rambling up all day as usual. How is renting?
Renting is half the cost of buying, which is half the cost of buying with borrowed money, about which the character you play here has no clue. Seriously, how is a debt donkey going to load up on precious metals?
Wrong: In CA, renting is not half of what it cost to own. Just head to Zillow and see how wrong you are. Factor in principal paid down ant eh tax benefits and you are really wrong. With 20% down it is just under even in year one. Rents go up, PI is locked.
Wrong again.
In fact renting is far less than half the cost of buying at current grossly inflated asking prices in CA.
Nice try though.
Jackie was gang raped.
Mikey Brown’s hands were up when he was shot.
Obamacare will save everyone $2500 a year.
Renting is 1/2 the cost of owning.
Hello Slithers.
Are you enjoying cratering prices?
Wrong rent is about the same in 93446 as buying with 20% down.
Not counting write offs and principal pay down. Zillow it!
It’s no wonder CA is the poorest state.
We haven’t met a house debt pimp on here yet that was willing to go through the math. Insults abound though.
The biggest elephant under the rug is paying 4 times the pre-bubble price for some bricks and sticks hoping to cash in on the momentum appreciation. This cycle of appreciation is over and something else is knocking on the door.
CA is the 8th largest economy on the planet. Poor? LOL!
Have you ever driven the coast? Ever driven through the south?
Ever leave you apt?
Avocado = Mango = Lola ?
Precisely.
Avocado = onion = cilantro = lime = guacamole?
fixt.
“Avocado = phony = fraud = clown = useless”
Soaring government debt and huge deposits of paper money in banks cannot cause inflation all by themselves. It has to be distributed to the common masses somehow. In decades past, that mechanism was full employment and high wages — everybody has a job, a paycheck, too many dollars chasing too few goods gave us high inflation.
In today’s world labor is slowly being made obsolete due to automation and robotics. About the only way to distribute cash to the masses are either make-work jobs or a fabled Bernanke helicopter drop. Student loan forgiveness would work too.
The other thing that could work is to let prices fall as they should as manufacturing costs go down. People could work less and do more art.
…or go to more hot yoga classes.
This automation stuff has been going for a very long time. There were predictions, probably a hundred years ago, that the typical worker would work just a couple of hours of today and have a very high standard of living. It has never come to pass. In fact, people ware work more now than they were 40 years ago.
Doesn’t seem to be working.
Do you really believe wages are going to magically double or triple to meet grossly inflated prices? Of course not.
Prices will continue cratering until they meet wages.
this IS good for the economy.
‘09 - ‘10 had some of the best deals for cars, traveling (got a Vegas 2 suite condo for $275/7days) and negotiating on almost everything. I think those days are in the future again. Ahhhhh, deflation.
You got a deal in Vegas??? lol!!
Next to impossible to NOT get a deal.
Timeshares are free if ya waste 90 mins listing to a clown tell ya LV is built out (kinda fun).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102248838?trknav=homestack:topnews:1
running out of buyers are we?
Nothing new there. 3% down has been the rule since 2008 and demand still plummeted to 20 year lows.
Remember….. 3% down payments for mortgages is subprime by definition.
Some wise sage once told me, “Your ultimate goal during good (quiet) economic times should be to become completely debt free”
Setting the bar kinda low.
I say, ya better have at least $1000 saved for every year old you are (not including retirement).
It’s much harder to pay off debt during a financial crisis wether it’s macro or personal. Liquid savings for an emergency should = 6 - 12 months.
With oil crashing again Texans are going to be hurting. Oil workers are now starting to get laid off in droves. Since Governor, Perry took credit for all those jobs, I wonder, will he also take the credit for all those jobs evaporating?
Same in ND.
Oil speculation, yee ha!
18 Trillion sez yer problems are just starting.
has printing yuan to buy treasuries to peg its currency so they can sell us stuff been inflationary for china?
THANK YOU PRESIDENT OBAMA. Yes you have to give him credit. Just a few months ago the Republican party flooded the Facebook pages blaming Obama for high gas prices. Almost on a daily basis they asked republicans if they were suffering because Obama had increased the price of gasoline to near $3.75/gallon. So follow the same retarded logic if the price now has dropped to below $2.00 in many places you must give him credit. Indeed Obama promised to make us the leader in oil production which also meant increase supply in order to lower prices and again….thank you Mr. President. Your strategy worked. Republicans are furious now blaming Obama that the lower prices are ruining the economy.
Sucker.
too many beers for this dude tonight?
Oh dear.
Spokane, WA Sale Prices Crater 19% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/spokane-wa-99224/home-values/
Don’t wet yourself there, bro.
Mom’s got cookies and hot chocolate coming. Life is good.
Transfer payments from taxpayers to bankers planned to increase:
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2014/12/04/treasury-announces-additional-5000-principal-repayment-for-1-million-homeowners/?intcmp=ob_article_footer_text&intcmp=obnetwork
“It’s about trying to prevent as many avoidable foreclosures as we can,”
If recovery is going so well… Oh never mind.
Everyone Must Check IN
Region VIII checking in
Blackstone bailing from the commercial RE market.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-08/did-blackstone-just-call-top-commercial-real-estate
Running subprime borrowers through the ringer is very profitable. This is never mentioned by the PTB of course.
U.S. Effort Aims to Aid New Buyers of Homes
By PATRICIA COHEN
DEC. 8, 2014
New York Times
Hoping to lure more first-time home buyers into the housing market, the government on Monday detailed its plan to offer mortgages with a down payment of as little as 3 percent of the purchase price.
The proposal, first announced in October, aims to make mortgages more widely available to people who have a strong credit history but lack the ready cash for the standard 20 percent down payment.
Some critics warned about the risk of repeating the subprime mortgage fiasco and opening the door to higher defaults among home buyers lacking any substantive equity cushion in case of another downturn in the market. But federal housing officials and other experts challenged these concerns, saying the new programs include a range of safeguards, including underwriting restrictions, a requirement to buy private mortgage insurance and counseling to reduce the risk of defaults.
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/09/business/us-effort-aims-to-aid-new-buyers-of-homes.html?_r=0
Only profitable if a bailout is backstopping it.
Isn’t the principle on the affordable housing loans federally guaranteed?
Are you enjoying those affordable gas prices? I’ve been to Starbux twice in the past month to enjoy some of the extra cash savings from putting only $30 of gas in my tank a week instead of more than $50.
I guess over the course of a year (50 weeks) we are talking about savings of 50 X $20 = $1000. That’s a lot of lattes!
It’s kind of funny how this article with today’s date on it mentions oil “below $70 a barrel,” given that it is already 10% lower as I type ($63/bbl).
ft dot com
December 8, 2014 3:00 pm
Gulf oil producers feel the pinch of price slide
Ayesha Daya in Dubai
Buzzing city of Muscat, capital of Oman
Moody’s on Monday issued warnings about oil-exporting Gulf states’ ability to withstand prolonged low hydrocarbon prices as crude fell to a new five-year low.
The Sultanate of Oman, which is not a member of Opec, as well as Bahrain, would be the most adversely affected of the six Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) nations by prices expected to average $83.60 in 2015, 20 per cent less than their May forecast, Moody’s Investors Service said.
The warning comes days after Standard & Poor’s revised its outlook for Oman to “negative” from “stable”.
“Bahrain and Oman will be more adversely affected by the lower prices because they have the highest fiscal break-even oil prices and the lowest reserve buffers in the GCC,” Moody’s said in its report, which focused on the GCC monarchies.
S&P said on Friday its outlook revision was a reflection of “the risk we see that the deterioration in Oman’s fiscal or external positions could be sharper than we currently expect, or that growth in real GDP per capita could fail to accelerate.”
Oil prices have dropped a third in 2014 to below $70 a barrel, the lowest in five years, as slowing demand in emerging markets such as China, Brazil and Russia coincides with rising supply from new sources, including shale oil in North America as well as conventional oilfields. Opec, supplier of about 40 per cent of the world’s crude, has traditionally reined in output to stall falling prices, but decided not to reduce its 30m b/d target at its twice yearly gathering in Vienna last month.
…
Here is another FT article with today’s date containing oil price information that is already stale as I type, as it says oil ended the day at $66/bbl. Last I checked, it had dropped another $3 to $63/bbl.
Prices are cratering at an accelerating rate of craterage.
ft dot com
December 8, 2014 6:49 pm
Oil and dollar hammer emerging markets
Elaine Moore, Robin Wigglesworth and Alice Ross
Stacks of U.S. $100 bills are arranged for a photograph in New York, U.S., on Thursday, Feb. 7, 2013. The U.S. dollar advanced in trading today to the highest in almost three weeks against a basket of major currencies. Photographer: Scott Eells/Bloomberg©Bloomberg
Emerging market currencies fell to a 14-year low against the dollar on Monday, hammered by investor appetite for the US currency and an oil price that has fallen to five-year lows.
The JPMorgan Emerging Market Currency index, which measures the strength of a variety of developing country exchange rates against the dollar, fell to its lowest level since it was created in 2000.
The stronger dollar put further pressure on the price of Brent crude, which dropped 4 per cent on Monday to just over $66 a barrel, heaping further pain on energy companies and oil-producing countries. Oil has fallen 40 per cent since the start of the year.
Emerging markets have been hit by the dollar’s rise, weaker exports due to slower growth in China, and lower commodity prices which have hurt natural resource exporters like Russia, Nigeria and Mexico.
Russia, already struggling to cope with western sanctions over its involvement in Ukraine, recently suffered the worst one day fall in the rouble since the 1998 financial crisis. Nigeria’s naira fell to a record low of 187 to the US dollar earlier this month.
But even big oil-consuming nations that should benefit from cheaper crude — such as Turkey and South Africa — have been affected.
“What is happening to emerging market currencies right now has a lot more to do with external factors than internal ones,” said Alan Wilde, head of fixed income at Barings Asset Management.
A depreciating currency can be a boon for some countries, making their exports more competitive. But it also makes imports more expensive, driving up inflation, and increases the cost of their dollar-denominated debt.
The sharp falls on currency markets have highlighted the faultline dividing the US, which is showing signs of a strong economic recovery, from the rest of the world, where growth remains anaemic.
…
ft dot com
December 4, 2014 7:23 pm
US oil reserves at highest since 1975
Ed Crooks in New York
Nomac Drilling Corp. derrick man Justin Spruell, right, climbs down from an overhead platform after connecting a section of drill pipe on a Chesapeake Energy Corp. natural gas drill site in Bradford County, Pennsylvania, U.S., on Tuesday, April 6, 2010. Companies are spending billions to dislodge natural gas from a band of shale-sedimentary rock called the Marcellus shale that underlies Pennsylvania, West Virginia and New York. The band of rock, so designated because it pokes through near a city of that name in northern New York, may contain 262 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas, the U.S. Department of Energy estimates. Photographer: Daniel Acker/Bloomberg *** Local Caption *** Justin Spruell©Bloomberg
US proven oil reserves last year rose to their highest level since 1975, official figures have shown, in the latest sign of how the shale revolution has transformed the country’s energy supply outlook.
Proven reserves — oil that is expected to be recoverable with existing technology at current prices — were in decline in the US up until 2009, when companies began experiments with producing oil from the Bakken shale of North Dakota.
Rising reserves are an indication that higher US oil production, which has risen about 80 per cent since 2008, can be maintained in the longer term, although the recent slump in oil prices is expected to lead to cutbacks in activity and a slowdown in output growth over the coming months.
Crude has fallen nearly 40 per cent since June, on the back of surging US production combined with slowing global oil demand. Brent, the international benchmark, fell 18 per cent last month alone as Opec, the producers’ cartel, decided not to cut output. Brent was trading just below $70 a barrel on Thursday afternoon.
…
Looks like demand is collapsing at the same time supply is not shrinking. Sure sux to be long oil or fracking junk bonds!
ft dot com
Last updated: December 8, 2014 10:49 pm
US oil stocks drop as crude prices slide
Anna Nicolaou and Richard Blackden in New York
US oil and gas stocks suffered on Monday as the price of Brent crude slipped to a five-year low.
The S&P 500 energy index fell nearly 4 per cent, underperforming the broader index, as fears that demand is drying up for oil knocked brent crude down 4 per cent. The S&P 500 energy index has fallen 19 per cent over the past three months, reflecting a steady slide in crude prices.
An unexpected drop in Chinese oil imports stoked fears that global demand for oil may be shrinking, after Opec decided not to cut production despite higher than expected supplies.
ConocoPhillips, one of the three largest oil companies in the US, announced it would cut its 2015 capital budget by 20 per cent compared with this year.
The Houston-based oil and gas producer said about $4.8bn would be spent on “major projects”, many of which are nearing completion, which is a “significant reduction” compared with 2014. It will defer investments on less developed projects in Canada, Texas, and the Niobrara shale field, the company said.
“We are setting our 2015 capital budget at a level that we believe is prudent given the current environment,” said Ryan Lance, chairman and chief executive.
The steep drop in crude prices has pushed several oil producers to trim budgets and cut back on projects for 2015. ConocoPhillips’ cut of about $3bn is one of the largest by a US oil company, in dollar terms.
The $13.5bn budget is “well below our expectations of $15bn”, Simmons & Co analysts wrote in a note.
ConocoPhillips shares closed down 4.14 per cent at $65.04 on Monday.
Apart from the largest US oil producers, small-cap energy stocks were also hit by crude concerns. Goodrich Petroleum, an oil and gas producer based in Louisiana, dropped more than 20 per cent to $2.96, and has fallen more than 80 per cent this year.
Halcon Resources, a Houston producer, was another one of the worst-performing stocks on the US benchmark, falling more than 10 per cent to $1.57.
Precision Drilling slipped more than 7 per cent to $5.54, down more than 40 per cent this year, and Sanchez Energy fell more than 19 per cent to $7, building on a drop of 69 per cent on the year. Energy XXI fell 14.63 per cent to $2.80.
…
Current oil price = $62.60 / bbl with further drops to come!
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife.
Addams Family Star Ken Weatherwax Dead at 59;
Actor Played Pugsley on Original TV Series
Natalie Finn, eonline
Seconds ago
They were creepy and kooky, mysterious and spooky, all together ooky…and really loved by loyal fans.
Ken Weatherwax, the former child star who played stripes-favoring son Pugsley Addams on the original sitcom The Addams Family, has died after suffering a heart attack, according to reports. He was 59.
Seems like the media really wants a race war. Huff Po is posting ever time a black person is killed. I think that is 12 a day in Chicago alone.
Frack’rs, meet Karma.
Here is an option in case it seems like your overpriced construction project isn’t going to pencil out.
Huge L.A. blaze being investigated as a criminal fire
L.A. apartment project destroyed in massive blaze
By Marisa Gerber, Brittny Mejia, Ruben Vives contact the reporters
Arson suspected in huge downtown L.A. blaze
The huge L.A. fire that engulfed an apartment tower over an area the size of a city block is being treated as a criminal fire.
Although blazes “of this magnitude” are always treated as criminal fires, “it’s very rare for the entire building to be engulfed at once,” Capt. Jaime Moore told the Los Angeles Times.
“There may have been some foul play.”
Arson investigators are going to examine the building and financial records. Dogs trained to sniff out accelerants were also at the scene.
Flames could be seen for miles from the fire that broke out in the DaVinci apartment complex about 1:20 a.m. The fire closed freeways and roads, burst windows of nearby buildings and melted freeway signs.
“It looked like a bomb had just exploded,” said L.A. fire Capt. Rick Godinez.
…