Where Did All The Investors Go?
The Orlando Sentinel reports from Florida. “Orlando-area home sales have slowed, the inventory of house listings is up, houses are taking longer to sell and sellers have less negotiating power than they did a year ago, according to a report. Orlando Regional Realtor Association Chairman Zola Szerencses, said the market conditions should appeal to buyers. ‘With the average interest rate at its lowest point in 18 months — 4.01 percent — plus an inventory plumped up with new foreclosures, our winter housing market has many gifts to offer buyers,’ he said.”
From Boston Curbed in Massachusetts. “Everyone knows that the Luxury Glutpocalypse has hit Greater Boston: too many new higher-end apartments, too few tenants for them, and a lot of gobsmacking incentives to try and right the market ship. You can see that the decreases have been steepest in areas that have seen some of the briskest development of luxury apartments (Back Bay, downtown Boston, Chinatown). Let’s not kid ourselves, however: The rent decreases in these areas throughout the year have been relatively slight (no greater than 5 percent in downtown, for instance) and rents overall were up a little more than 2 percent. But it’s interesting to note that some of the biggest drops—and the slightest increases, for that matter—came in areas where big luxury complexes have recently opened.”
The Northwest Herald in Illinois. “Sure, it’s December and that often brings a slowdown in the real estate market. Regardless of the holiday season, it seems that even November was down a little, too. In fact, all of 2014 has been a tad off from what we saw in 2013. So what’s going on? Where did all the investors go? Agents tell me that many of their investors have pulled out of the market, thereby, cooling the market after the 2013 rally in McHenry County.”
“But why aren’t people buying? Interest rates remain incredible at historic lows. Shouldn’t that drive the market to buy? Maybe it will take a significant rise in rates to get people buying. The old timers tell me that in the 1980s – when interest rates were 16 percent to 18 percent – people were in fear of rates going higher so they frantically applied for loans. Yet, here we are on the other end and banks can’t give money away.”
The Los Angeles Times in California. “As the year draws to a close, Southern California’s housing market remains stuck in low gear. The number of homes sold in the six-county Southland dipped 9.5% in November, compared with the same month last year. The median price climbed to $412,000, up 7% from November 2013 but basically unchanged from recent months, according to CoreLogic DataQuick. ‘Southern California home sales are closing on a low note in 2014,’ said Andrew LePage, a data analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick. ‘Inventory still lags demand in many markets and traditional buyers haven’t filled the void left by the investors who’ve pulled out.’”
The Pacific Business News on Hawaii. “Foreclosures rose 40 percent statewide in Hawaii last month and more than doubled on the Big Island in , according to RealtyTrac. The newest numbers reflect the fact that mediation didn’t work for some homeowners, said Darin Blomquist, vice president of RealtyTrac. Anders Hostelley, president of Honolulu HomeLoans, pointed to a Hawaii law that requires attorneys to file documents affirming that lenders have the legal right to foreclose before they can start foreclosure proceedings, something that they were previously allowed to do later.”
“‘Attorneys needed to change their procedure and timing in filing foreclosure actions, which they have most likely been able to catch up on,’ Hostelley said. ‘This could be part of the reason for the recent spike in foreclosures.’”
The New York Post. “Real estate brokers Carol E. Levy and Chris Lipman have the kind of apartment most New Yorkers can only dream of. But now, the custom-made winding entrance steps serves as a border between hostile camps. The duo divorced in 2012, and though the split was far from amicable, Lipman lives on the 17th floor in the guest bedroom, surrounded by a media room and the sole kitchen, while Levy lives upstairs in the 18th-floor master suite with her new husband. Levy and Lipman’s two teenage daughters also share the upper floor. The exes intend to stay in this unorthodox situation until the sale of their marital home, which came onto the market for $24 million, and has been reduced to $18 million to speed the sale.”
“Levy and Lipman are just one of many couples in the city who are living together after their romantic relationships expire, mostly due to financial situations and the high cost of New York housing. ‘The current scarcity of real estate options in New York City for people going through a litigated divorce often makes co-habitating the only viable option,’ says Todd Spodek, divorce attorney and partner at Spodek Law Group in Tribeca. ‘Plus, if you voluntarily move out and can support yourself, your claim for [spousal] support is diminished.’”
‘These Two Graphs Are Great News for Boston Home-Hunters’
‘For over a decade, China has faced accusations of exporting deflation. In 2002, Haruhiko Kuroda – then a Japanese finance ministry official, now head of the Bank of Japan – warned in the Financial Times that China’s entry into the World Trade Organisation would add a “powerful deflationary force” to the global economy.’
‘Just over a year later, the US Federal Reserve published a discussion paper entitled: “Is China exporting deflation?”, but it concluded that the Chinese economy was “too small” to have an impact.’
“Just over a year later, the US Federal Reserve published a discussion paper entitled: “Is China exporting deflation?”, but it concluded that the Chinese economy was “too small” to have an impact.”
Bahahahahaha … on this message board the jokes just keep on rolling themselves out.
7.5% growth rate forever, baby!
15 December 2014 Last updated at 19:45 ET
Is China’s economy really the largest in the world?
By Ben Carter BBC News
Two boxing gloves - one with the US flag and the other with the Chinese flag
The Chinese economy is now worth $17.6tn, slightly higher than the $17.4tn the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimates for the US.
So for the first time since 1872, when it overtook the UK, the US has been knocked off the top spot.
…
Curious how they went from $9 Tr in 2013 to $17 Tr in 2014.
When you borrow lots of money and spend it on useless stuff, people call you rich. When the bills come due, they call you poor. GDP isn’t a measure of “worth”, only of spending. Likely to be abandoned as a useless measure only when the bills come due.
‘Recent reassuring comments about the Canadian housing market remind me of similar blandishments when oil prices began to fall. Just as with oil, so many of the people we expect to know what is happening refuse to admit that house prices can go through big declines as well as big increases.’
‘This is the most disturbing lesson from the recent fall in oil prices, that the professionals — the people who have all the historical data on production and demand — seemed as surprised as the rest of us when oil plummeted by half. The second most disturbing lesson is that after the decline had happened, economists at the big international banks acted as though it was an inevitability, sagely predicting further declines.’
‘Where were they this summer when oil was trading at $100 US?’
‘Both federal Finance Minister Joe Oliver and the governor of the Bank of Canada, Stephen Poloz, have acknowledged potential dangers. Poloz worried publicly last week that house prices could be overvalued. But when questioned in New York he said a 30-per-cent overvaluation was not a bubble.’
“We don’t think of this as a bubble in any way,” he said.’
“We don’t think of this as a bubble in any way,” he said.’
Bahahahahaha … stop it with the jokes, Ben. You’re killing me.
Why are bubble deniers so wrapped up in their denial?
It’s not a bubble until after it crashes.
“But why aren’t people buying?”
Why would they? We’ve have a few suckers commit financial suicide since 2008 but take a look at organic demand. It’s at 20 year lows.
Hint: The public clearly understands that housing is grossly overpriced.
Even if they don’t understand anything about the housing market, they know their paycheck cannot afford to buy a house.
Big question going forward: Now that the investors have pulled out and price appreciation has leveled off, are U.S. housing prices destined to drop by more or by less than oil prices recently fell?
The net worth of many oil drillers and many homebuilders are both headed toward zero.
The important thing with all objects speculative is their direction and the amount of leverage. When the price of anything goes down and stays stubbornly down, the leverage implodes. It won’t matter to house speculators (debtors) what their house is worth, only that they themselves are ruined.
I am curious to see how low oil prices go, and for how long they stay there. Every day is extremely painful for many parties. There is a lot of yammering on about how $100 per barrel is right around the corner. I don’t think so. This is eerily reminiscent of 2008, but I am not sure the fake rebound will happen this time.
“I am curious to see how low oil prices go, and for how long they stay there. Every day is extremely painful for many parties.”
“Be fearful when the others are greedy. Be greedy when the others are fearful.” –Stucco?
“There is a lot of yammering on about how $100 per barrel is right around the corner.”
Don’t take AlbqDan’s posts to heart!
INwesters packed up in 2012 or early 13
w a net zero year you can expect counties to keep raising tax as they always spend everything they get.
‘The current scarcity of real estate options in New York City for people going through a litigated divorce often makes co-habitating the only viable option,’ says Todd Spodek, divorce attorney and partner at Spodek Law Group in Tribeca. ‘Plus, if you voluntarily move out and can support yourself, your claim for [spousal] support is diminished.’”
All the more reason for Sexodus part trois in my mind - men ALWAYS end up on the losing end of divorce - PERIOD!!!
Real estate brokers Carol E. Levy and Chris Lipman have the kind of apartment most New Yorkers can only dream of. But now, the custom-made winding entrance steps serves as a border between hostile camps. The duo divorced in 2012, and though the split was far from amicable, Lipman lives on the 17th floor in the guest bedroom, surrounded by a media room and the sole kitchen, while Levy lives upstairs in the 18th-floor master suite with her new husband.
Lucky guy, he gets to listen to his replacement bang his ex at night.
Never move in with a woman who is still living with her Ex.
No sh!t Sherlock!
You’re talking recipe for a lethal gunshot wound.
“Lucky guy, he gets to listen to his replacement bang his ex at night.”
Lolz! Pleasure and pain are dear neighbors.
“But why aren’t people buying? Interest rates remain incredible at historic lows. Shouldn’t that drive the market to buy? Maybe it will take a significant rise in rates to get people buying. The old timers tell me that in the 1980s – when interest rates were 16 percent to 18 percent – people were in fear of rates going higher so they frantically applied for loans. Yet, here we are on the other end and banks can’t give money away.”
When will these shills come to understand it ain’t about interest rates - it is about what a buyer can afford on a monthly basis - a pure cost allocation limit -
I am coming to agree that Realtors have to be either liars or the dumbest folk on the planet!!
“But why aren’t people buying?” - 2014
“The Japanese don’t have the talent, or equipment to attack Pearl Harbor” - 1941
” Don’t worry about those iceburgs……this ship is unsinkable.” - 1912
“Even if they have us outnumbered ten to one, they will scatter……so we have to attack them fast.” 1876
From my upcoming book, “Self Delusion and American History”
“it is about what a buyer can afford on a monthly basis”
In the runup to peak bubble prices it was about how much you wanted the house to enrich you on a monthly basis.
In the delvereraging it will be about how much you want to lose on a monthly basis.
After that, we can consider affordability.
They understand, their simply lying.. not sure if anyone else noted theirs a movement by the NAR to close down all real estate blogs and true news sources and consolidate to one source , theirs!!! to try keeping the fact that the house market is dead and only thing that was and no longer holding it up was the fed and they’re printing press
“….unorthodox situation…..” Rotflmao
Yeah, this living arrangement has “stability” written all over it.
My idea of Hell (or a hit sitcom) would be living under the same roof with my pizzed off ex, and her new hubby.
Sudden rapid increase in domestic violence/murder suicides among white collar caucasians? Look no further.
Click on the link to read the whole story……. ROTFLMAO again.
Yeah, everyone is acting like adults…….no pizzed off and bitter people here…….
“…….works for Pet Chance TV, a company that installs TVs in pet clinics.”
And just when everyone was wondering what people were going to do, after the “gourmet cupcake” fad went away…….
It’s never been a better time to be a comedian. This stuff just writes itself.
“…no pizzed off and bitter people here…”
Must have been fun watching that bump grow. Lolz!
Oh dear.
‘Four of the largest investors involved in the single family rental market have a potential of $1.2 billion in gained equity, or a 23 percent return, on properties purchased in the last three years (and that is just among the subset of properties with sufficient sales price and valuation information available).’
‘Among the largest institutional investors involved in the single family rental market, Blackstone/Invitation Homes had the most purchases with price and value information available over the past three years with 14,108, followed by American Homes 4 Rent (12,811), Colony American Homes (4,935) and Fundamental REO/Progress Residential (3,208).’
“With the pop in prices last year and normal historical price increases this year, investors are testing the market with their inventory.”
-Mike Pappas, CEO and president of Keyes Company, covering the South Florida market.’
“We are starting to see institutional investors release their hold-and-rent inventory back into the market as prices reach near peak prices.” -Chris Pollinger, senior vice president at First Team Real Estate, covering the Southern California market.’
‘States with the highest percentage of gained equity returns on institutional investor purchases were Delaware (63 percent), California (47 percent), New Hampshire (44 percent), Oregon (42 percent), New York (39 percent), and Colorado (38 percent).’
‘States with the most potential dollar value in gained equity on institutional investor purchases over the past three years were California ($1.9 billion), Florida ($1.4 billion), Georgia ($662 million), Arizona ($546 million), Illinois ($486 million), and North Carolina ($442 million).’
Metro’s with biggest equity returns include San Francisco, Portland, San Diego, Los Angeles. Metro areas with the most institutional investor purchases with price and value information available over the past three years were Atlanta, Miami, Phoenix, Chicago, Charlotte, Las Vegas, Tampa and Dallas — all with more than 5,000.’
‘Metro areas with at least 1,000 institutional investor purchases over the past three years with the highest percentage of potential returns on gained equity were San Francisco (63 percent), Portland (50 percent), San Diego (47 percent), Los Angeles (46 percent), and Riverside-San Bernardino in inland Southern California (46 percent).’
‘Metro areas with the most potential dollar value in gained equity on institutional investor purchases over the past three years were Miami ($611 million), Atlanta ($609 million), Los Angeles ($568 million), Phoenix ($512 million), and Chicago ($464 million).’
http://www.realtytrac.com/content/news-and-opinion/where-wall-street-is-most-likely-to-cash-out-of-the-single-family-rental-market–8200
“potential” = fantasy
I need to study some more physics. We’ve obviously overlapped with some type of parallel universe, where all of this stuff makes sense.
The trick is discovering what induced the overlap, the disappearance of which will cause the overlap to go away, our universe reverts to “normal”, and plan accordingly.