December 17, 2014

Bits Bucket for December 17, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.




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261 Comments »

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 01:30:02

Cr8r

Comment by Crater
Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-12-17 06:24:07

Craters gonna crate

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:14:07

Its all about the fundamentals.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 07:21:25

Good point Poet!

San Diego, CA Sale Prices Plummet 16%; Sellers Flood Market And Slash Prices

http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92130/home-values/

 
Comment by rms
2014-12-17 08:28:58

“Its all about the fundamentals.”

+1 Eventually gravity wins.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 06:28:51

Welcome Mr. Crater!

~crater

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 07:26:07

Why buy when prices are falling? Rent for half the monthly cost.

San Diego, CA Rental Rates Sink 10% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92109/home-values/

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-17 10:34:41
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 11:17:07

Oh my….

Pittsfield, MA Rental Rates Sink 22% YoY As Vacancies Skyrocket

http://www.zillow.com/pittsfield-ma/home-values/

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-17 13:01:25

Another day in mom’s basement playing World of Warcraft?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:06:21

Oh dear…

Massachusetts Sale Prices Crater 6% YoY Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/ma/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by Shillow
2014-12-17 07:34:47

Leading edge markets like SD and Phx getting crushed. Every few months you wait is tens of thousands of dollars in your pocket.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:45:42

“The importance of money illusion goes far beyond academics and social science experiments. Central bankers use money illusion to transfer wealth from you — a saver and investor — to debtors. They do this when the economy isn’t growing because there’s too much debt. Central bankers try to use inflation to reduce the real value of the debt to give debtors some relief in the hope that they might spend more and help the economy get moving again.”

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 08:03:49

Thats not inflation Poet. *Learn* the difference.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 16:11:21

Not sure what you’re referring to, but central bankers counterfeiting printing money is the textbook definition of inflation. At least currency inflation which, via supply and demand, inevitably leads to general inflation.

For more information/proof see: Zimbabwe, Argentina.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 16:22:01

Cue “The More You Know™” banner.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 16:37:40

Not really. Not at all. Inflation requires rapidly rising wages.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:44:24

Not sure what you’re referring to, but central bankers counterfeiting printing money is the textbook definition of inflation.

Which textbook is that? I can’t imagine that Samuelson would have used that definition.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 17:09:57

” Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 16:37:40

Not really. Not at all. Inflation requires rapidly rising wages.

Lol know how I know you’ve never taken an economics class?

Hint: The Federal Reserve conterfeiters Bank’s perverted definition of inflation isn’t the real one. Rising wages are only a symptom, and by the time they hit, usually what you have is HYPER-inflation.

Using currency inflation to cushion the effects of debt is a common centralbanking tactic - just as azdude originally stated.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 17:26:06

To elaborate a bit, Zimbabwe’s central bank printing so much money that soon a gallon of mile was going for around $25,000,000 $Zim is textbook (hyper) inflation.

The Fed’s perverted idea is that it’s only inflation when it affects the supply side, i.e. big corporate interests, say via extreme wage increases. God forbid, when that happens and the common/middle class person might get an economic boost…well by God NOW WE HAVE INFLATION!!!!! (according to the counterfeiters Fed).

When the prices of the things we need for daily life double and triple in a few years, well gosh that doesn’t count cause it’s ummm…..uhhh…..V-O-L-A-T-I-L-E and thus shouldn’t be counted at all. Yeah, that’s the ticket: Volatile.

So food, fuel, and housing, magically don’t ever inflate(even though they clearly do), but any hint of wages going up must be dealt with severely.

Jeebus, I don’t think even John Lovitz could pass off BS like that.

If you really believe that wages have to inflate for there to be actual inflation then you’re the bankster’s model puppet.

Dance for your masters!

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 17:29:18

Inflation doesn’t occur without rising wages. Here’s a hint. Wages aren’t rising.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 17:42:59

Lol it’s like talking to Rain Man. “Yeah, yeah definitely not inflation. Definitely not inflation. Of course I’m an excellent economist. Just ask my Dad. Fifteen minutes to Wopner….”

Again, just because your government and the Fed refuse to acknowledge inflation in food, fuel, and housing doesn’t mean it’s not happening.

Dance for you masters!

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 17:50:33

They’re your masters. You invoke their definitions.

There is inflation and there is price fixing. *Learn* the difference.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 17:54:51

FWIW, both Investopedia and wikipedia basically define it thusly: “Inflation is defined as a sustained increase in the general level of prices for goods and services.” Google dictionary defines it economically as “A general increase in prices and fall in the purchasing value of money.”

Same thing.

Are you seriously going to argue that things like Bacon, Milk, and auto repair service haven’t increased by 300%+ in the last 10-30 years?

That’s inflation. Textbook definition. It’s the time value and/or present discount value of money. I believe Samuelson devoted at least an entire chapter to it.

I don’t mean to bust your chops, but the perverted perception that action should be taken by the Fed when wages rise but not when the price of pretty much anything else does is, in my humble opinion, one of the largest if not THE largest cause of the loss of purchasing power and economic station of the middle class.

It’s one of the great lies of our time, and I take any opportunity I can get to dispel it.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 18:07:24

Who’s fixing the price of Milk and bacon or car repairs? “Price fixing” is a case of monopolistic or collusion practices. That’s the case with Comcast and a few other cases, but in the broader economy, supply and demand still rule the day.

Increase the money supply (what the Fed does via counterfeiting OMOs, QA, etc - electronic money printing) and supply and demand dictates that price inflation follows. See Zimbabwe for an extreme example.

Thanks to an influx of cheap labor and outsourcing (both threatened and real) wages have stayed nominally stable, thus driving the purchasing power of the American worker steadily downward for decades. That doesn’t mean there’s no such thing as inflation.

It just means that whatever propagandist(s) have manged to convince you that inflation doesn’t exist just because wages haven’t inflated with everything else has done an awesome job.

Just because they don’t want to call it inflation unless wages go up doesn’t mean you have to go along with it.

Now you know better. If you choose otherwise you’re willfully ignorant.

QED

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 18:17:35

Up above you wrote that central bankers printing money is the textbook definition of inflation. Now you’ve looked up the definition and you see that it’s something else.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 18:23:16

Minor correction: “OMOs QA, etc” should be “OMOs QE etc.”

As in Quantitative Easing, i.e. “we’ll just go ahead and counterfeit create a pile of new money and ease it out into the economy but loaning it for (near) free to ourselves (i.e. the shareholders of the Fed ™ who are the only ones with access to the discount window).

They basically counterfeit money and loan it to themselves at near-zero interest. Quite a racket they got going on there.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 18:30:56

“Who’s fixing the price of Milk and bacon or car repairs? “Price fixing” is a case of monopolistic or collusion practices. That’s the case with Comcast and a few other cases, but in the broader economy, supply and demand still rule the day.”

The fed. Call it whatever you want but price fixing is not inflation.

“Increase the money supply (what the Fed does via counterfeiting OMOs, QA, etc - electronic money printing) and supply and demand dictates that price inflation follows. See Zimbabwe for an extreme example.”

They can print $4trillion and warehouse it. ZERO effect.

“Thanks to an influx of cheap labor and outsourcing (both threatened and real) wages have stayed nominally stable, thus driving the purchasing power of the American worker steadily downward for decades. That doesn’t mean there’s no such thing as inflation.”

That’s not inflation.

Was the tripling of housing prices from 1996-2007 inflation? Of course not. It was price fixing by the fed via credit expansion. The price of all these items have nothing to do with inflation and everything to do with backstopping the price fixing with credit. You can call it inflation by proxy but it doesn’t meet the definition of inflation.

If wages were spiraling as they were in the 70’s and gold tracking wages as it was in the 70’s, we’d have an inflationary spiral. That’s not the case.

Falling prices is positively bullish and good for the economy.

 
Comment by Biggvs Richardvs
2014-12-17 18:31:55

Part and parcel.

Central bankers print money, and prices inflate.

I guess if you want to get semantic then one could say that central banks’ currency inflation(counterfeiting) is the primary textbook cause of general price inflation.

Then again, one could also unclench their buttcheeks and realize that it’s all the same process.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 18:38:21

“Central bankers print money, and prices inflate.”

And how does this currency expanding price fixing make a difference in the absence of credit?

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 21:29:21

Here’s a thought experiment that might settle the sbove argument: Suppose the Fed kept its “money printing” activity intact, but all of the federally guaranteed lending programs at Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, USDA, FHA, etc were suddenly terminated.

Q. Wither housing in the above scenario?

A. CR8R!

 
 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 10:43:18

personalize plate it.

 
 
Comment by SUGuy
2014-12-17 02:41:55

I think this might be cr8r example in the broke a$$ city of Sucacuse

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/6909-Shalimar-Way-Fayetteville-NY-13066/31728062_zpid/

btw the taxes have been lowered to about 28K

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 06:24:53

Talk about chasing the market down. On the market since august 2011 and now 50% off.

 
Comment by 2banana
2014-12-17 06:57:53

Nothing like paying $30,000 property taxes for a nice house in the middle of upstate nowheresville.

The public unions and the democrat party thank you.

Comment by Dman
2014-12-17 07:17:17

WTH? How do you get from property taxes in Syracuse to public unions and democrats? Does your brain have some kind of short where the explanation for every problem is those dern liebrals?

Comment by iftheshoefits
2014-12-17 07:22:45

In this particular case, do you have a better explanation?

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:02:40

It’s due to solar flares.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 09:41:22

George Bush did it.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 09:45:19

W or HW (or both)?

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 09:54:26

Both and the rest of them going back to their great great great great grandfathers of course.

 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 07:26:26

His ex-girlfriend left him for a union goon firefighter and he’s never gotten over it.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:01:40

“How do you get from property taxes in Syracuse to public unions and democrats?”

Republitard propaganda

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 07:43:50

democrat party thank you ??

Well then I guess you can thank the republican party for this…Thanks George for your Mission Accomplished…The gift that just keeps on giving;

Stone, according to Marine officials, served eight years in the U.S. Marine Corps Reserve. According to the young man, both were dealing with the aftermath And it’s possible that, however tough he was on the outside, Stone was beginning to show signs of crumbling.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=4&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CCcQFjAD&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedailybeast.com%2Farticles%2F2014%2F12%2F15%2Firaq-vet-s-bloody-killing-spree.html&ei=WZORVJ_CCcTuoASa1oH4Cw&usg=AFQjCNG-5RfWSNXZCv0UPgZlx9AA5fxgnQ&sig2=HP9XQZ4viEWlKN5L2QdwjQ

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 08:32:58

they attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms

we have to fight them over there so we won’t have to fight them over here

freedom isn’t free

these colors don’t run

power of pride

let’s roll

et cetera

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Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 10:16:03

…Git ‘er dun!

 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:39:30

love it!

“they attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms”

And we have Playboy.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:41:23

“they attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms”

Certainly, they hate us because our societies do not legally condone such behavior as the link below identifies. I do not understand liberal feminists defending Islam, they do not know the history. While some Muslims may claim that Islam does not condone such behavior they are probably lying since Islam allows for and encourages lying to infidels to promote the “faith” or they just do not understand their own religion.

http://www.albawaba.com/editorchoice/signs-world-ending-isil-published-guideline-taking-female-sex-slaves-632490

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 15:55:46

Certainly, they hate us because our societies do not legally condone such behavior as the link below identifies

There’s no evidence to support such a reason for the hatred. If you want to understand it, you should consider US policies in the Middle East since 1945.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:20:36

Islam’s hatred of the West (Christianity) goes back to its creation not to 1945, you should study Islam and maybe you will see that the fundamentalists reflect true Islam as taught by the prophet.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:24:23

I am sure the Muslim Turks committed genocide against the Christian Armenians during and just after WWI due to US policies after 1945. Yea that makes sense. (not).

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:40:47

I was referring to the quote “they attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms”. It was the World Trade Center and the Pentagon that were attacked on that day. Presumably, if the reason for their hatred of “us” was Christianity, they would have chosen different targets, such as the Vatican and the Canterbury Cathedral.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:49:20

After a thousand plus years, they have added secular values to the hatred of non-Islamic countries. They attacked the trade center since they correctly calculated that target would do the most economic damage to the US. I remember many Muslims commenting after the attack that liberty was just an excuse for libertine and was un-Islamic.

 
Comment by tresho
2014-12-17 18:28:50

Nothing of importance happened before 1945.

 
 
 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:41:05

Reagan, the Democrat raised taxes 7x. It is so confusing!

He also gave amnesty to 3 mill. Even O wont give Amnesty! Did I mention he tripled the deficit? Who is who?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 14:09:43

Reagan increased the deficit about 1.5 trillion and won the cold war with the increased defense spending. Obama will have increased it by about 8 trillion giving out free sh#t, it is not hard telling the difference.

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Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 15:15:25

Are you asserting $8 trillion of new free sh!t programs? That would be incorrect.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:44:10

New or existing is a distinction without a difference, he made sure they were funded and expanded.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:00:11

That would have to include the two wars started by Bush, along with his Medicare prescription drug benefit.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:21:59

Bush has his own deficit and it is about half of Obama’s and it includes those items.

 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 16:25:43

and the Bush tax cuts left us with less revenue.

I see Obama as a tight wad: http://money.cnn.com/2014/01/27/news/economy/spending-obama/
NEW YORK (CNNMoney)
It’s unlikely that President Obama will ever shake his reputation among Republicans as a big spender. But a key fact counters that rap.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:30:08

Bush has his own deficit and it is about half of Obama’s and it includes those items.

Then the recession occurred, which further increased the deficit.

 
 
Comment by Me. Smithers
2014-12-17 14:19:09

9/11 is the reason Syracuse property taxes are high? Progressives are high larious.

And the fact that Shracuse and Anaya’s are run by Democrats and have been for decades is totally not a factor. Nope it’s 9/11 and Reagan. lOL

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 14:43:29

Nancy falls further into the minority, thanks Obama:

PHOENIX (AP) — Republicans will have their largest U.S. House majority in 83 years when the new Congress convenes next month after a recount in Arizona gave the final unresolved midterm race to a Republican challenger.

Retired Air Force Col. Martha McSally won a House seat over Democratic incumbent Ron Barber by 167 votes out of nearly 220,000 cast, according to results released Wednesday.

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Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 15:19:16

Nancy falls further into the minority, thanks Obama:

You can say that about the midterm elections for every two-term president in recent memory, except Clinton who got lucky. 1986 was great year for the Democrats, as was 2006.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:51:50

Did you miss the part about the Republicans having their greatest majority in over 80 years and remember the Democrats started out with their greatest majority in decades, no this was not a normal shift during Obama’s presidency.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:26:39

It says the largest House majority in 83 years. If you go back to 2006, the last election year before Obama was either president or running for president, the Democrats had 233 in the House to the Republicans’ 202. In 2008, with Obama at the head of the ticket, the Democrats increased their total to 257. That was not a historically high count. The Democrats had more seats at various points a few decades ago. They had a very good year in 1974, when they won 291 seats.

So the 247 seats currently held by the Republicans is a historic accomplishment for them, but it’s not such a big deal in the grand scheme of things. This last election also had a historically low turnout. The Republicans won a House majority in 2012 when there was a larger turnout, but they actually lost the popular vote House seats, so state-level gerrymandering is a factor.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:29:32

One thing both Ben and I agreed on was that the Democrats were going to either repeal Obamacare or they would pay the price at the polls, and they did big time.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:34:17

In 2008, with Obama at the head of the ticket, the Democrats increased their total to 257. That was not a historically high count.

Are you really that clueless? The Democrats went from having a large majority to a point where the Republicans have the most seats in 80 plus years, this is not a normal change as you tried to portray it in your first post. It is something that might happen every century.

 
Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:48:31

You ignored everything that I wrote, didn’t you? The low turnout, the gerrymandering, you’re just not interested.

 
Comment by Neuromance
2014-12-17 17:14:32

Albuquerquedan: One thing both Ben and I agreed on was that the Democrats were going to either repeal Obamacare or they would pay the price at the polls, and they did big time.

I’m not sure this has anything to do with Obamacare. I look at the Maryland governor’s race. It was truly uninteresting. A nominally black Democrat with an outstanding resume (2 Harvard degrees and 30 years as an officer in the Army). As the evening wore on, it seemed the absolutely incomprehensible would happen - the Republican, who’d never led in any polls - was winning. Incomprehensible. And then - the concession and acceptance speeches. Truly stunning.

But - voter turnout was only 44%. I think the Democrat constituencies stayed home not because of Obamacare, but because there was no candidate they wanted to support. The cause? I suspect economic malaise. The kicker here was the low turnout.

There are a few (powerful) groups who hate Obamacare but for the typical consumer, it has no impact which I can see.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 17:24:51

Its regulations caused a good part of the economic malaise and motivated Republicans. Besides contrary to the Democrats it did not become widely popular, Democrats ran from it and Obama being on the defense is never good in politics.

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:53:32

He also gave amnesty to 3 mill. Even O wont give Amnesty

Obama will not give amnesty since no president can give amnesty. Reagan did not give amnesty he signed a bill which was passed by a democratic house and a closely divided senate which was a compromise. Reagan got the tools to better defend the border including employer sanctions and the left and the chamber of commerce got its amnesty.

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Comment by SUGuy
2014-12-17 02:52:25

I am noticing in the real estate websites around Central NY lots of second homes, water front, and large estates are just coming on the market. I did not see this trend in the past winters.

Could this be the run for the exits?

http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S303183
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S311587
http://www.cnyhomes.com/Listing/Search/info.cgi?mlnum=S316814

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:38:35

When do you think mom and pop will be flushed out of the stock market?

What is the catalyst?

Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 08:34:50

What is the catalyst ??

Russia ?? or, the good old standby, Iran….I wonder when the drop in oil prices will start putting the squeeze on them…

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 13:38:00

People doubted me on this a few days ago, but Putin is responding to Obama’s economic war by preparing for real war. Ironically, when Obama spikes the dollar to hurt the ruble, it just makes it easier for Putin to pay for the rearming since his defense industry is paid in rubles or roubles.

http://au.ibtimes.com/articles/576288/20141216/russia-secret-nuclear-weapons-rouble-world-war.htm

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Comment by rms
2014-12-17 08:53:59

“What is the catalyst?”

This was posted yesterday; it’s spot on IMHO.

The Oil Coup
http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/12/16/the-oil-coup/

Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 09:48:22

Nice post thanks….Something about backing Russia or Iran into a corner Is just unsettling to me…Twisting arms and waiting for both to say “Uncle” is just a game that we should not be participating in…

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Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 10:01:46

is it so cal dave? lower gas prices are good for walmart shoppers arent they?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 10:16:58

Oil just hit $59 a barrel so they better fuel up fast.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 10:31:39

Only another $25 to fall eh ABQ_D?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 10:50:24

No only another $25 to rise in the next year, two years out, we hit $100.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:52:30

is it so cal dave ??

Nor-Cal…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 10:57:23

In the meantime, crude continues to crater. Why wouldn’t it considering demand is collapsing?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 11:00:34

“In the meantime, crude continues to crater.”

Don’t let facts like oil is up over $2 a barrel today get in your way, or the fact we are up 10% from the bottom made Monday.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 11:08:41

Or down 50% in the matter of 60 days. Just another bounce on the way down the stairs.

Kind of like housing.

Cambridge, MA Sale Prices Sink 4% YoY; Housing Demand Plummets

http://www.zillow.com/cambridge-ma/home-values/

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 11:37:52

I would not consider a few days a trend Adan…

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 11:41:42

I would not consider a few days a trend Adan…

or even six months. But the fact remains the basic rule of economics have not been repealed, people only invest in areas where they expect to make a reasonable return and with today’s geology that is about $100 a barrel.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-12-17 12:05:01

This is how I see it.

1. The world was ready, willing, and able to pay $100 per barrel for oil; However
2. Fracking has allowed lots of oil to be produced profitably at somewhere between $50 and $70 per barrel, depending on who you talk to.
3. Oil production from a fracked well declines starting immediately–therefore, to continue to increase production from these areas, drilling needs to continue at a high level.
4. Recently, new permits for drilling in fracking areas has declined approximately 30%, but hasn’t stopped.
5. At anything like stable prices at $50-$70 per barrel, Iran, Russia, Venezuela, and lots of other oil-producing countries are screwed–they need higher prices to balance their budgets.

My conclusion?

Any oil price below $50 is likely to be an unstable level (prices will tend to rise from here, since production will inevitably decline).

Any oil price above $80 is likely to be an unstable level (prices at this level will make marginal locations profitable, thus increasing supply).

Oil producing countries that need high oil prices are screwed.

How the damage to those oil producing countries affects the world is an open question.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 12:45:08

and with today’s geology that is about $100 a barrel ??

I am no expert so I don’t know but if true thats for a new well…Anything existing is “sunk cost” so anticipated return is replaced with current return…Anticipated return is a go/no-go decision…After the well is in, take what the market allows no matter what the Anticipated return was…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:54:33

“or even six months. But the fact remains the basic rule of economics have not been repealed, people only invest in areas where they expect to make a reasonable return and with today’s geology that is about $100 a barrel.”

There it is folks. ABQ_D’s production cost analysis. In other words, he doesn’t know chit.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 13:17:08

Anything existing is “sunk cost” so anticipated return is replaced with current return

I am not talking about wells that have already been drilled, I am talking about the cost of new wells and new sources of oil. Not oil that was discovered 70 years ago, oil such as pre-salt oil which is “today’s geology.” If fracking wells declined at the rate of the old wells say 2 to 3% per year, you would be right, but know that we are talking about 30% and more decline rates, it is the cost of the new well that is important, the wells that we have already drilled cannot stop the decline in production that is coming.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:23:42

Why wouldn’t production decline given the fact that demand has cratered?

And what is the cost of “new wells”?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 13:39:31

Show me any data that shows that oil consumption has actually fallen instead of just not increased as rapidly!!

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:50:32

Overflowing tank farms across the globe is your evidence. That’s why oil prices are cratering.

Now back up you field development cost expertise.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-12-17 15:58:55

Adan-

A friend of mine invested early in the Bakken (yes, he has done well). The most interesting factoid from talking with him is that the early wells took about 4 months to drill and frack. The new wells take 21 days now. Much lower cost of labor.

In any event, any comparison to prior gluts/busts is faulty for the reason you note…very rapid decline in production after the initial burst of activity for a fracked well. In the past, the marginal cost of pumping oil after the cost of drilling was very low, and so a glut could be sustained for years after the initial creation of the glut. However in this case, while it’s relatively cheap to continue to pump oil (as before), the amount of oil pumped goes down very quickly, making the fact that it’s cheap to continue to pump completely moot.

 
Comment by reedalberger
2014-12-17 18:46:13

“No only another $25 to rise in the next year, two years out, we hit $100.”

Why would you be cheering for that scenario? You must have skin in the game. Do your self a favor and liquidate your positions as fast as possible, the end of the ponzi is drawing near.

#SellSellSell

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Mr. Banker
2014-12-17 04:47:07

Are you really ready for the world to be ruled by bankers?

I know I am.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-16/are-you-really-ready-world-be-ruled-bankers

Bahahahahahahahaha … you cannot lose with the stuff I use.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:08:02

role of TP= 25 cents @ 100 sheets/role or .0025 cents/ sheet

rouble = 1.25 cents @ 80 r /100 usd

20 sheets of TP / sitting = 5 cents

Things dont look good FOLKS!

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 07:54:59

You are confused about the role of toilet paper.

 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 05:34:20

we are the real journalists

 
Comment by Hard Rain
2014-12-17 06:24:27

I caught an actual falling knife this morning while making lunch. I couldn’t help think that anyone who bought a house in the past few years is in for a world of hurt.

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 06:45:33

good news bear pit. Over at cnbc they are saying inflation posts largest drop in 6 years. It is time to stop kicking tires and buy stocks and homes!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 06:53:40

Hello Poet.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 06:55:37

Time for Fed stimulus to kick inflation up to 2pct.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:30:12

Russia raised interest rates to 17%. Could you imagine what would happen to stocks and homes if that happened here?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:04:42

It nearly did, back when Volcker was at the helm of the Fed. And jobs and housing both landed hard.

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 08:38:45

And jobs and housing both landed hard ??

Hard would be understated….It crushed millions….Lost everything they had…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 08:53:09

That’s what happens when you pay too much and borrow to do it.

Lesson: If you pay too much, you’re going to lose big.

 
Comment by rms
2014-12-17 09:00:06

“Hard would be understated….It crushed millions….Lost everything they had…”

+1 Some authors call that period America’s first great recession since the 30’s depression. Unemployment was really high, and construction was absolutely dead in the water.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 09:03:39

You mean like right now.

 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 08:05:23

Houses would become much more affordable much more quickly and the economy would accelerate like we’ve never seen.

Let’s get those interest rates ratcheted up where they belong.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:11:37

Banks could also potentially return to solid profit-based business models, rather than casino gambling operations.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 08:47:52

Banks could also potentially return to solid profit-based business models ??

Raise rates in the face of deflation trends ?? We are already the go to safe haven for capital….Raising rates would just accelerate a run toward our T-Bills….FED is stuck between a rock and a hard place….They need the other world economies to get out of the deflationary trend…

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 09:44:19

On the other hand, it’s nice to rest assured that you can run up your electronic balance sheet to the tune of several trillion, yet foreign investors still flock to the dollar and dollar-denominated assets.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 09:52:06

yet foreign investors still flock to the dollar and dollar-denominated assets ??

Half a pie is better than no pie…There are many places in the world that you risk losing it all if you leave it there…

 
Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 10:19:42

I’ve got a pile of cash and emergency savings salivating for higher interest rates. Bring it!!

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:58:26

Bring it !!

At this point in time, the only thing that higher rates will hurt is us…If the FED raises rates in the face of zero rate and in the case of Germany & Sweden a negative rate policy money will just flock to the T-Bill and drive effective rates back down…Given the state of affairs in the world economies right now I think the FED is stuck in the mud…

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 11:02:20

when will they announce QE4? The economy is addicted to the printing presses now.

No one wants austerity under their watch. The only way out is to keep creating more dollars than you pay on interest to service the debt.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 11:41:44

The economy is addicted to the printing presses ??

The world is addicted….We stalled the meltdown in 2008…Finding the way back to normalcy for the entire economic world is no easy task…And still a task that there is no clear answer so, its stay the course for now…

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:01:01

Staying the course on collapsing demand and cratering prices is indeed the right thing to do.

 
 
 
Comment by Shillow
2014-12-17 07:38:57

Wasnt that Budget they just passed basically an open spigot for fed spending?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:46:58

“Now assume the same scenario, except this time, the Federal Reserve engineers 3% inflation for five years, for a total of 15% inflation. The saver still has $100,000 in the bank, but it is worth only $85,000 in purchasing power due to inflation.”

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 08:01:02

Now imagine cascading defaults in the so-called emerging nations on dollar denominated debts. Imagine oil patch and mining debt defaults and the pyramid of debt induced inflation shrinking instead of growing.

Imagine you still owe 5 years of your (past) salary on your house (and the HELOCs you rode in on).

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 08:04:07

u have a strange imagination.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 08:06:31

Poet… Do you really thing inflation(Wages) are going to rise?

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:53:26

Post never appeared so I will repeat. Yes, I expect wages to rise 2% in the U.S. and 10% in China over the next year.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 16:09:12

So wages aren’t going to double or triple to meet grossly inflated prices?

Thanks for that tip.

 
 
 
 
Comment by Combotechie
2014-12-17 06:56:12

But … but … but we are told that a drop in inflation is supposed to be a BAD thing.

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-17 07:14:31

It is bad if you have debt.

Like the record deficits of the US government

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 07:19:48

Job creators need more tax cuts.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 10:30:21

It may explain a good portion of the Bush’s deficit but not Obama’s deficit. Unless you consider the states as job creators and their wish to avoid laying off union workers by using federal money as “tax cuts”.

 
Comment by Me. Smithers
2014-12-17 14:32:05

Tax revenue always increases after a tax cut. It did in the 60s, the 80s and the 00s. Proble. Is spending in erased even more. Yet progressives think tax cut = deficit.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:12:21

It depends on the tax rate at the time of the tax cut, even Arthur Laffer would admit that some tax cuts do not pay for themselves. I do not think the Bush tax cuts cost the revenue some claim but I do not think they paid for themselves. Lowering the corporate rate would have been far more effective than cutting high income individuals, IMHO.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by VinceInWaukesha
2014-12-17 06:56:21

From yesterday:

“Comment by azdude
2014-12-16 10:42:51
how come oil was the first asset to crater? Is it harder to keep levitated?”

Harder to store. Can’t think of anything other than electrical energy thats more expensive to store than crude oil. Refrigerated fresh fruit produce, maybe.

Also the whole industry is leveraged to hell and beyond based on $100+ prices. Once suppliers start going bankrupt, disruptions will start destroying non-leveraged operators. Don’t matter if you’re the only plumber who’s not leveraged/going bankrupt, if everyone else stops making payments, you’re outta business.

It’ll be interesting to watch other commodities like iron, coal, mcmansions crater.

Comment by Combotechie
2014-12-17 07:06:51

“It’ll be interesting to watch other commodities like iron, coal, mcmansions crater.”

Here are some commodity charts:

http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=w1

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 07:12:31

beef prices look bullish. I was thinking of getting in the cattle business. Any idea of my start up costs?

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-17 07:59:53

Reverse engineer it, starting with the BS.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 08:02:25

LOL!

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 08:09:13

u guys r funny people.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 08:23:29

But watching you tirelessly work is priceless Poet.

 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:14:10

Stox up, dollar up, basic commodities from wobbly to cratering…

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 08:07:50

“mcmansions”

What’s their connection to the basic commodities on your list? Do you believe plummeting construction costs presage cratering new home prices? Or will the widening gap between sales prices and expenses land in the home builders’ pockets?

Comment by VinceInWaukesha
2014-12-17 12:27:32

“What’s their connection to the basic commodities on your list?”

I suspect you know what I’m getting at although I may not have explained it very well…

Crash oil price, no need for wells, no need for wells means no need for steel well casings means no need for steel, the whole virtuous cycle in reverse thing. Slow, but inevitable. Eventually no money to pay for mcmansions. And the median house is always going to be sold to the median buyer, the local short term economic conditions and country wide interest rates being the sole determiner of the price, and I’m not seeing unemployment as being overly bullish for prices. I guess we could try negative inflation rates, or just airdrop cash on people to boost sales. Median dude’s income is going to drop, so median house price is going to drop, about that simple.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:49:54

Lets see….. incomes already dropped, houses prices and commodities are falling to affordable levels again.

You’re right. It is that simple.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 18:45:35

Nice demand-side explanation, Vince.

To that I add my supply-side explanation (lower costs of inputs to construction = lower construction costs = builders can profitably sell for less = SUPPLY CURVE SHIFTS TO THE LEFT).

SUPPLY SHRINKAGE + DEMAND SHRINKAGE = CR8R

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 08:53:06

Don’t matter if you’re the only plumber who’s not leveraged/going bankrupt, if everyone else stops making payments, you’re outta business ??

+1….Some appear to wish for a collapse thinking they are immune from its effects….It does not matter if you live in a basement with a mattress full of gold…You got to come outside sooner or later and the atmosphere outside will not be cordial…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 09:48:20

Dave,

Falling prices of all items is always a net positive for the economy and very bullish.

Comment by Amy Hoax
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 10:55:37

Oh my word.

Salem, OR Sale Prices Crater 7% YoY

http://www.zillow.com/or-97303/home-values/

 
Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-17 13:05:06

Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:09:49

Uh oh….

Las Vegas, NV Sale Prices Crater 5% YoY; Plunge 12% MoM

http://www.zillow.com/las-vegas-nv-89113/home-values/

 
 
 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 10:07:44

Honestly dave, hoping for an end to the fraud, ripoffery, contstantly escalating of prices and the giant Ponzi that has been the global economy is not hoping for disaster. It is hoping for relief.

I won’t be afraid to come outside, the guys wearing fancy clothes are the debt donkeys.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 11:16:30

is not hoping for disaster. It is hoping for relief ??

But it will take a disaster to get the type of “relief” you seek and a relief I might add that you may find hard to find…

We have many huge problems in our system…In our society…One way to cleanse it is to flush-it through a crash…A complete utter meltdown…Thats the kind of “coming-out-side” I am talking about…Can’t happen ?? Well, it can’t until it does….

And if it did, you not going to feel so safe on your boat…Because, if you have anything a value they, the majority that don’t have it and want it, may just swim out and take it from you…

And for all that have your cache of guns, guess what, there are more illegal guns in america then there are legal ones so the guy you are pointing your gun at is pointing one back at you…Maybe 5 or 10 of them wanting to share the largess…

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 11:44:24

Falling prices isn’t doomsday Dave.

Falling prices is positively bullish and good for the economy.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 11:53:14

“anything a value they…may just swim out and take it”

OK. I am thinking of someone swimming out to take my generator, or maybe my corelle dishes and my cribbage board. Holding up a boat bum has slim prospects. Ok, the silverware is silver, but no one under 50 would recognize that.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 12:10:57

They could take your boat after tossing your corpse into the lake/ocean.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:12:00

They? Who is they?

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 12:31:52

Of course they could, the ones left. Are all the land whales already dead at that point?

LOL, after a mile swim in cold water I rather think they would be a clumsy bunch. Would they swim out with grappling hooks and climb ropes to board?

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 12:50:04

after a mile swim in cold water ??

You got to come to shore for food & gas sooner or later…..

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-12-17 13:07:16

Colorado
There are Medical and Dental Tourism firms that escort you to and from US tourism firms approved clinics. Although I wholeheartedly agree with you, there are cases where traveling into Mexico is safe. The govt LOVES the Dental & Medical Tourism $. I’m doing my due diligence starting with the MDA (Mexico Dental Association) credential certification. Many MDA members are also ADA members.

Mexico’s peasants are our criminal invaders.

I am in favor of the Cuban decision. Hey, we trade with China, and it’s not exactly a mirror govt model of the USA.
Rubio (R) seems like a whining hack.

 
Comment by Me. Smithers
2014-12-17 14:36:36

What about Menendez? Oh wait he’s a Democrat, he’s cool, even though he said the exact same thing Rubio said.

 
Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-17 15:32:13

Are they going to swim out to my boat also? I think I’ll need more flares.

 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 12:13:44

How many here are comfortable traveling in Mexico these days? And yet Mexico is a functioning nation. If we really have the “crash and burn” that so many here pine for, it will be much worse here than it is now in Mexico.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:19:29

Falling prices isn’t “crash and burn”. Falling prices is positively bullish and your wallets best friend.

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 16:45:37

And yet Mexico is a functioning nation.

Really? I think the illegals pouring across our borders, the drug trade/wars, and the rampant corruption suggests otherwise.

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 17:29:28

It’s not Somalia. And they come because they are next door. If it was in South American there would be no Mexodus.

 
Comment by reedalberger
2014-12-18 03:55:55

Seems like the lefties like ever increasing prices and debt, goes hand in hand with the chaos model.

#ClowardAndPiven

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 08:29:42

what’s your walkscore?

millennials more likely to walk or bike to downtown denver jobs

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2014/12/16/millennials-more-likely-to-walk-or-bike-to.html

see also:

‘the centennial state came out on top as the state with the lowest percentage of obese adults (21.3 percent) and the lowest percentage of adults who have not participated in physical activity in the past 30 days (16.2 percent).’

http://www.bizjournals.com/denver/news/2014/12/09/colorado-is-a-top-10-healthiest-state-united.html

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 08:40:59

Yeah I saw that. I saw one in four Arizonans are obese. Californians tend to be thinner - I also read.

The south. Wow. They sit around eating potato chips and dip all day?

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 08:48:39

“The south”

I’ll be flying through a few Southern airports next week, looking forward to seeing all the landwhales in their mobility scooters. It’s so pathetic that people just let themselves go like that, and even more pathetic that we as a society accept that.

When I was running the Pikes Peak Ascent half marathon in August, I talked to a 60-something runner who was running his thirty-fifth consecutive Ascent, that will be me someday as long as my knees cooperate.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 08:55:35

Even if my feet fail me, I’m not going to be sedentary. I already found bicycling does not hurt my feet. And then there is always swimming. Jack LaLanne was always telling people to keep moving, no matter what age. He was far ahead of his time.

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Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:43:25

I worked with Jack and I spent time at his home in MB. Even in his last yrs, his arms were solid as bricks. Great man!

 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-12-17 14:14:57

Avo
Jack - I admire his early adopter mentality, and he built an honest empire, not like the Kardashians (being famous for being famous). He honored is body and practiced what he preached. As I kid, I watched his show, and couldn’t keep up. That dude was in shape, and was so until the end. IIRC he was a former Chiropractor.

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 14:43:40

I saw pictures of him in his 70s and 80s and you are right. Solid triceps and biceps. His motto was to stay in motion and his diet was just the Mediterranean diet. His only dessert was a couple glasses of red wine (he was French descent).

 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 16:28:42

He has a museum at his house with all the weight machines he invented. He just never patented them before they got popular.

 
Comment by rms
2014-12-17 20:10:21

“…and his diet was just the Mediterranean diet.”

Jack also said to avoid anything made with white flour.

 
 
 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 09:07:18

The south. Wow. They sit around eating potato chips and dip all day?

Lot’s of fried food.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:05:14

Lot’s of fried food ??

Yep….Every day…..

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 10:14:03

Got a little bit of smarm going there eh Dave?

 
Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 12:08:09

Yep….Every day…..

Not too hard. When I was in Raleigh I was struck by the number of Bojangle’s Fried Chicken places. They must have outnumbered all the burger joints combined.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 12:54:32

I was struck by the number of Bojangle’s ??

Yep….And go into any restaurant that is now a national chain….Grits….Gravy….Mashed potatoes with all the fixens…Biscuits…and the main course….Deep Fried Chicken…

 
 
 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 08:56:34

Denver….It would be the only other place that I would choose to live…Wonderful place…

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 09:01:48

The higher altitude and thinner air make the yoga pants cameltoes so much better here.

Comment by rms
2014-12-17 09:08:25

+1 Mind the Gap

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:07:32

LOL…

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Comment by rms
2014-12-17 09:07:24

Boulder is the SLO of the Rockies.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 10:03:16

I think you are right. I visited Boulder in February on business. It was dam cold and the sun on the snow was blinding, but I loved it and can see the SLO-ness. Laid back. But more high tech than SLO. Great for mountain bikers and snow skiers. Great for MJ tokers.

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:10:28

Great for mountain bikers and snow skiers. Great for MJ tokers ?

No snow but you get the Ocean in return….

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 11:11:23

any deals in the bay area on homes? what do you think of the petaluma, santa rosa area?

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 12:09:22

SCDave “MJ” = marijuana

AZdude:

My sister lived in Petaluma a few years and is now in San Rafael. I was actually up in those towns over this last weekend. Santa Rosa is more working class up further north. San Rafael is upper end. If you like the Northern California climate of cool temperatures and winter rains, it’s a great area. the air is clean too. Petaluma is not as costly as San Rafael. There are smaller towns in the area. San Anselmo north of San Rafael, then Nicosio / Woodacre even smaller. Lots of biking opportunities. Larkspur is next to San Rafael and also small. You are generally safe there, as if you are in Orange County in the Irvine area.

Deals on homes? I defer that to Dave to answer.

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 13:00:45

any deals in the bay area on homes ??

Nope…Everything close to the job centers has gone vertical…Got to get over the hill or to south county (Gilroy) to start getting some decent pricing in relationship to what you get relatively speaking…

what do you think of the petaluma, santa rosa area ??

Its not as bad as the bay area near all the tech employers…

 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 13:03:04

When I say not as bad I mean prices….Its a wonderful area to live in…Little wet and a little hot as compared to the bay area but still very nice…

 
Comment by Bluto
2014-12-17 14:36:29

I’ve lived in Santa Rosa for 7 years and like it a lot, as was said an excellent area for bicycling EXCEPT that the roads in Sonoma Co. are no longer maintained well and many are extremely rough…still my main interests in retirement are bicycling, motorcycling, and vintage sports cars and this is a great place to enjoy them.
However Bubble 2.0 is definitely happening here, prices are up about 60% in the last 2.5 years i.e small houses that were $250K in 2012 are now $400K+. I tried to buy for a year in 2011/2012, made about 8 offers and was ignored in every case due to competition from 100% cash flippers and speculators. Definitely would not buy anything now and just turned down an offer to be partners on a property. Waiting for Bubble 2.0 to pop in 2015 and may try again if prices drop back to 2011 levels but am hoping I there won’t be a second wave of flippers and specuvestors to compete with…that was very discouraging and I gave up after a year of wasted time and disappointments.
Petaluma is considerably more expensive than Santa Rosa and for parts of the year the odor from the nearby chicken and livestock operations is STRONG and would gag a maggot…still it is a very nice town overall, worked there for awhile and liked it, but the RE is out of my price range.

 
Comment by Rental Watch
2014-12-17 16:08:56

I grew up in Petaluma, but haven’t been back for years. I still have friends there.

One note. If you look up the history of growth control ordinances, Petaluma was one of the first to have such a law in place. It restricted the number of building permits per year, thus restricting supply, regardless of demand. That has caused prices to generally be higher in town than they would have been otherwise.

We always thought there was a different between Marin County folks, and those farther north (Petaluma is in Sonoma County). My friends who are still in Petaluma say that the people who are moving into town make it more like Marin County was 20 years ago.

Is that bad? It depends who you are. When I grew up, there was a reasonable mix of the ag community and the rest of town (parades celebrating the agricultural history of the town, lots of multi-generational dairy families active in town, kids had parties out in the middle of fields, etc.). Marin was much different–much more urbanized–agricultural folks were more fringe. To me, it would be kind of sad if Petaluma was similarly urbanized today.

Anyway onto whether there are “deals”. At this point, I doubt it. That said, you would probably do better looking outside of town than in town. Get more land, more open space, which IMHO is part of the allure of Petaluma/Santa Rosa vs. San Rafael.

 
 
Comment by scdave
2014-12-17 10:09:11

Boulder is the SLO of the Rockies ??

Yep…I visit SLO often…Very similar…

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Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 08:37:02

part 4 of this washington post series

wall street is richer than ever, and the middle class is worse off for it

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sf/business/2014/12/16/a-black-hole-for-our-best-and-brightest/

doing ‘god’s work’ indeed

Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 09:55:38

wall street is richer than ever, and the middle class is worse off for it

That’s class warfare!

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 10:57:39

Because pigmen gonna pig

Los Angeles Times - Wealth gap in America widens to record level

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-pew-wealth-gap-20141217-story.html

Comment by Me. Smithers
2014-12-17 14:40:46

Obama hates the middle class.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 15:55:20

Yes and he is making sure he has less and less of them to hate every year.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 10:14:24

When yer debt free and sit on a pile of cash, boom and bust cycles don’t effect you much.

Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 12:00:01

Boom cycles can be inflationary and steadily eat away from a pile of cash, especially in a ZIRP environment.

I recall high inflation Mexico in the late 70’s. With the oil selling for top dollar it was definitely “boom time”. No one held onto cash, if you had any you’d quickly buy something that could easily be resold later (at a higher price): rebar, bags of cement, raw plastic in granules, gold coins, etc.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:04:37

We haven’t seen inflation in many years.

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-17 13:08:37

Renters get to see inflation every time they renew their lease.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:11:43

New York Rental Rates Plunge 18% YoY Statewide

http://www.zillow.com/ny/home-values/

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 11:04:30

Which investment choice was worse in 2014: Russian roubles or bitcoin?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 11:05:41

Real estate, oil or any commodity.

 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 11:06:52

As rouble erodes, Russians buy out last remaining luxuries
By Thomas Grove and Gleb Stolyarov
MOSCOW Wed Dec 17, 2014 12:34pm EST

Dec 17 (Reuters) - The glittering Jaguars and Land Rovers parked on the showroom tiles at Rolf car dealership in Moscow looked like a steal, still priced in last week’s roubles. But by Wednesday you were probably too late.

Russians have been racing to buy cars, electronic goods and designer clothes with their swiftly devaluing roubles. But some international firms have suspended supplies of luxury items, at least until the currency stabilises.

Shoppers trying to buy iPads or iPhones on Apple’s website were getting a “We’ll be back” message. With the rouble falling on Tuesday at its fastest rate since the catastrophic 1990s, Jaguar and Land Rover announced that they had suspended deliveries of cars to Russian dealers, at least until Friday.

“It is more profitable for both automobile producers and dealers to stop sales at a moment of currency instability and wait until the situation stabilises,” said Oleg Datskiv, the general director of online automobile portal Autodealer.ru

Speaking on behalf of Rolf which has several dealerships around Moscow, one salesmen said there was little left to sell: “The cars in stock are either in the process of selling out, or already have.”

Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-17 12:05:26

Russians have been racing to buy cars, electronic goods and designer clothes with their swiftly devaluing roubles. But some international firms have suspended supplies of luxury items, at least until the currency stabilises.

I recall when the Mexican Peso collapsed in 1976. People ran out bought everything they could. I recall department stores being stripped clean within days. Some merchants closed and reopened with new, higher prices. Their merchandise didn’t sell as well.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:13:25

And just the opposite his happening here as a result of deflation.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 11:08:47

Democratic senator futures.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 14:10:57

Worse investment of the year.

 
 
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 11:40:46

To set the record straight, bitcoin peaked at over $1200.

Bitcoin is the worst investment of 2014. But can it recover?
Bitcoin halved in value over 2014. That’s a pretty bad investment, and could spell doom for the currency
May 8, 2014.
A Bitcoin sign is seen in a window in Toronto, in this file photo from May 8, 2014. Photograph: Mark Blinch/Reuters
Alex Hern
Wednesday 17 December 2014 05.35 EST

2014 has been a rough year for bitcoin. Almost as soon as it began, the currency was shaken by news of the collapse of MtGox, once the sole bitcoin exchange.

The same month, Charlie Shrem, a Bitcoin Foundation board member, was arrested for alleged money laundering. And over the rest of spring, the currency was rocked by repeated thefts and hacking scandals.

But the worst was to come: obscurity. A hefty hack may hurt bitcoin temporarily, but far worse for the currency is no one talking about it at all. And over the second half of 2014, that’s what happened. As conversation and excitement about bitcoin dried up, so too did the currency’s value, dropping from more than $900 a coin at its peak in January to just $334 today.

To put that another way, as Matt Phillips of business site Quartz did: “Bitcoin is the worst investment of 2014”. If you held one bitcoin at the beginning of 2014, you would have lost 52% of the value of your investment. That’s worse than buying into the Greek stock exchange (28%) or the Argentine peso (24%). Depending on where the Russian rouble is when you read this, it may even prove to be a worse investment than that free-falling currency, although at press time the real currency marginally outperforms the fake one, the Rouble having lost 51% of its value.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 13:20:06

The problems in Bitcoin were from the technically-less-knowledgable people not protecting their wallets. The ones who do know cryptography and information security most likely were not affected by the hacks, except in the price of bitcoin itself.

You can buy Dell products from Dell with Bitcoin. Same with Microsoft. It’s going mainstream.

While I’m not sure if Bitcoin will prevail as the stable cryptocurrency (stable in the sense of being the most widely used over a generation or more), I am confident some cryptocurrency will prevail and that cryptocurrency is here to stay.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 14:41:05

I was wrong. The real problem with Bitcoin is that if you have a high percentage of the bitcoins you can prevent transactions from occurring. The big data miners just about killed it. But then they decided to police themselves. They realized they would be better off letting it operate without killing it. Something like that. A colleague just explained.

He made his own form of bitcoin starting with a different seed than Bitcoin. That’s with the same algorithm. But it’s not bitcoin. And it’s worthless because you have to have other people in the chain to make the coins usable.

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Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-17 16:49:17

“…cryptocurrency is here to stay.”

Yes.

“And it’s worthless because you have to have other people in the chain to make the coins usable.”

And it’s the ongoing risk that your preferred cryptocurrency’s users will get syphoned off to another newer, sexier one, plus the lack of a monetary authority to stabilize its value, that suggests bitcoin will remain forever unstable and subject to periodic crashes and devaluations.

What’s worse, with a sufficient number of new entrants to the unregulated cryptocurrency arena, the value of bitcoin can easily be dissipated to 0. Technically speaking, this is known as rent dissipation due to an open-access externality.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 11:29:53

If Bush was in office the MSM headline would be Bush lied about troops being involved in combat. Actually, I am surprised the title do not say US troops involved in community organizing. Here is the link:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/reports-u-ground-fighters-emerge-154800859.html

 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 11:51:21

So is Obama’s announcement on Cuba a way to retaliate against Reid for blaming him for the senate losses? Las Vegas would be a minor player in gaming if the casinos in Cuba did not have to close due to Castro. The man is quite vindictive, I am sure that he flipped off Hillary after he beat her in the primary and Mccain after the general election. That middle figure to the nose was no accident. In any event with the Cuban beaches and casinos not open to Americans Nevada has major new competition.

Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:37:25

Cuba is great!! Lets move in! Russia blew it!

Who would not want access to such a beautiful country so close to our shores! So much better than Mexico.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 14:03:58

I think HA is right about one thing, you are Lola. Obama claims economic sanctions do not work, so lets put them on Russia and risk nuclear war and take them off Cuba. Yes, Obama is very logical and consistent.

Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 16:34:00

Ever been to Cuba? Nothing to fear! Do you prefer Russia owns Cuba 90 miles from our shore?

We trade with China, Vietnam, Iran and the Saudis! Lets be consistent.

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Comment by Shillow
2014-12-17 19:47:04

We need webcam verification of Lolacado. Wear a green shirt.

 
 
 
Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 14:32:58

“They’ll see us as liberators!”

Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 16:36:49

Ever been to a Cuban baseball game? Ever gone skin diving off the coast? Ever danced with a Mulatto? All good stuff, nothing to fear.

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Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 12:23:08

“Currently, the US has over $17 trillion in debt. The US can never pay this off. That is not some idle statement… we issued over $1 trillion in NEW debt in the last eight weeks simply because we don’t have the money to pay off the debt that is coming due from the past.

Since we don’t have that kind of money, the US is now simply issuing NEW debt to raise the money to pay back the OLD debt.

This is why the Fed NEEDS interest rates to be as low as possible… any slight jump in rates means that the US will rapidly spiral towards bankruptcy. Indeed, every 1% increase in interest rates means between $150-$175 billion more in interest payments on US debt per year.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:25:06

And the end result is collapsing demand and falling prices.

Comment by Puggs
2014-12-17 14:36:45

+1, LOVE falling prices!

 
 
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-17 13:31:38

Currently, the US has over $17 trillion in debt.

Actually, just the official national debt is $18 trillion and counting, start counting unfunded entitlement programs and you can go above 300 trillion under some estimates. But your main point is correct, the US cannot raise interest rates since it cannot fund the national debt at market rates of interest. We are a bankrupt country, a dead man walking.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:53:08

Prices crater regardless of interest rates. That’s what happens in an environment of collapsing demand.

Comment by MightyMike
2014-12-17 16:52:42

Gee, I don’t know. David Koch said that he’s worried that the federal deficit will cause inflation.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 17:30:53

Now you know.

 
 
 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 12:39:57

There’s a whole lot of liars out there doing this today.

http://s296.photobucket.com/user/saihukaru/media/Gif%20Funny/dapdaunhanh.gif.html

 
Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 13:27:54

hi bear pit

Looks like stocks are havn a nice rally on the news that interest rates basically are never gonna rise. You will never see 5% CD rates again. the only yield your gonna get is chasing garbage stocks like facebook and twitter and gopro. CSCO hasnt gone anywhere in 20 years has it? Look at all the old tech darlings. Their revenue is in the tank.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 13:39:29

Poet.. A wise man recently said, “hold onto every dollar you’ve got and stay out of debt… you’ll be glad you did.”

He’s right.

 
 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:35:18

Cuba is beautiful!! we need to take it over. Great place to re-hab! Great beaches, cool people and music. Good job O!

Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 14:57:53

Heck, we trade with the Saudis, they still be-head people and of course 9/11.

Celebrate with a Mojito and Cuba Libre!!

 
 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 13:56:02

Serious question for these of us on the sideline with cash:

(ARCC) pays > 10% div. down recently with oil and junk bonds.

They have over $600 m in cash.

Ares Capital Corporation specializes in acquisition, recapitalization, mezzanine debt, restructurings, rescue financing, and leveraged buyout transactions of middle market companies.

I am getting close to jumping in big.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 18:06:06

go for it homy! u have nothing to lose.

 
Comment by Combotechie
2014-12-17 20:29:14

Buy ACHN instead.

 
 
Comment by inchbyinch
2014-12-17 14:29:43

My husband remembers the Cuban Missile Crisis (Oct 1962) from a 14 year old’s perspective. He was scared to death. Now he is cautiously optimistic about a new beginning. In our international relations, we deal with all types of governments and cultures. This will be a new era to watch unfold. It would be nice if the two worthless parties came together on this and created some synergy.

 
Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 15:14:39

So it looks like Sony is letting the terrorists win.

With theater chains defecting en masse, Sony Pictures Entertainment has pulled the planned Christmas release of “The Interview.”

In announcing the decision to cancel the holiday debut, Sony hit back at the hackers who threatened movie theaters and moviegoers and who have terrorized the studio and its employees for weeks.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 16:54:35

I didnt think n koreans even had that kind of technology.

Comment by Avocado
2014-12-17 17:35:49

Sony surrendered. Looks like we will see a lot of this now that it is shown to work.

The N. Koreans probably hired some clever Indians.

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-17 17:11:47

Michelle Obama: Asking a stranger for help at the store is racist

Who hasn’t ever been mistaken for an employee of some store or restaurant?

by Poor Richard’s News | December 17, 2014

Bad news from Michelle Obama: if you’ve ever asked a stranger for help reaching something at the store, you’re a racist.

from Politico:

Barack and Michelle Obama are sharing their own personal experiences with racial prejudice, saying they’ve been mistaken for valet drivers and Target employees — the latter even occurring during their time at the White House.

“The only person who came up to me in the [Target] store was a woman who asked me to help her take something off a shelf. Because she didn’t see me as the first lady, she saw me as someone who could help her,” Michelle Obama told People magazine, recalling a trip she made to Target, according to excerpts released Wednesday.

She continued, “Those kinds of things happen in life. So it isn’t anything new.”

President Barack Obama shared that he has been mistaken for staff as well on numerous occasions during his life.

“There’s no black male my age, who’s a professional, who hasn’t come out of a restaurant and is waiting for their car and somebody didn’t hand them their car keys,” said the president.

Michelle Obama also recalled, “He was wearing a tuxedo at a black-tie dinner, and somebody asked him to get coffee.”

Comment by jane
2014-12-17 19:17:18

Whine, whine, whine.

So The Michelle is peeved because Jill6pack viewed her as somebody who could help?

Would Shelly really like to be viewed as what she actually is? A rapacious, $100M/trip, free-spending oligarch? I guess Jill’s mistake was that she did not genuflect.

Malignant narcissists never change. They gaslight the narrative, always in their favor.

Eff them and the donks they rode in on.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-17 19:49:35

Moochelle has changed the story from a short woman asking for help to a racist woman asking for help.

Michelle Obama on David Letterman:
Mar 20, 2012

Mrs Obama also revisited her shopping trip to a Washington-area Target after Letterman held up a picture of her after wearing sunglasses and a baseball cap during her highly-scrutinized undercover excursion last September.

She said she thought for sure her cover was blown when a woman approached her in the detergent aisle.

But the First Lady told Letterman the woman only wanted help with a package she couldn’t reach.

Mrs Obama said the woman apparently was oblivious of the fact she had asked a favour of the First Lady and said ‘you didn’t have to make it look so easy’ after the detergent was retrieved.

‘That was my interaction,’ Mrs Obama said. ‘It felt so good.’

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2117468

/Michelle-Obama-David-Letterman-First-Lady-laughs-tears-talking-father.html#ixzz3MDJ9tYXP
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

 
 
 
Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 17:29:12

The new D’Angelo album is beyond excellent

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Messiah_(album)

 
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-17 18:11:33

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-12-17/mortgage-applications-tumble-citi-warns-oil-drop-risks-housingjobs-slump

Mortgage applications for home purchases fell almost 7% last week, fading recent gains and hovering once again back at 20 year-lows (entirely unable to reflect the housing ‘recovery’ for the average joe). The plunge in applications comes as mortgage rates crash back to 4% - the lowest in 19 months. The reason - apart from unaffordability - is explained by Citi’s Will Randow who notes the spillover effects of the “unequivocally good for everyone” drop in oil prices has a dramatic effect on both jobs (prolonged price drop means a loss of ~200k jobs) and housing (starts expected to drop 100k if oil prices remain low). Maybe talking-heads should reconsider that “unequivocally good” narrative.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-17 18:27:31

if we created some real jobs people might be able to buy a house. service jobs arent going to do anything for growth.

It seems all we can so is service what we got.

 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 18:39:58

“Mortgage applications for home purchases fell almost 7% last week, fading recent gains and hovering once again back at 20 year-lows”

Did he say organic housing demand is at 20 year lows?

 
 
 
Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-17 18:43:51

We need a global Beaver tax

Climate change: Beavers boost emissions with 800 million kg of methane every year

Hannah Osborne
By Hannah Osborne
December 16, 2014 17:08 GMT

In their work published in the Springer journal AMBIO, experts note that carbon builds up in oxygen-poor pond bottoms like those created by beavers, and methane is generated. The gas cannot be dissolved and is released into the atmosphere.

Researchers at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada have found this methane release from beaver ponds is now 200 times higher than it was a century ago.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/climate-change-beavers-boost-emissions-800-million-kg-methane-every-year-1479809

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-17 19:20:09

It’s “Obama Tyme” tonight

God bless America and God bless Barry “Choom Gang” Obama

http://www.breitbart.com/Breitbart-Sports/2014/08/02/Choom-Gang-Reunion

This is your Obama

Is this the Obama you wanted?

Comment by AbsoluteBeginner
2014-12-17 19:48:09

Thank you. I feel much better about my youth now.

 
 
 
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-17 19:57:40

How many lying canadian realtors are slithering around here?

 
Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-17 20:31:16

Debt is for dimwitted donkeys.

It’s nice to have rung up another year of paid off credit cards and (one…two…three) NO DEBT!

Har Har!

Money left over to buy some quality liquor and precious metals. Funny how driving an economy car and renting loads you up with money, isn’t it?

 
Comment by tresho
2014-12-17 23:05:58

Celebrating a tear down in Detroit

DETROIT — In and around the abandoned houses on Mount Vernon Street, brawls and shootings have erupted, a dogfighting ring has been established, stolen cars were traded and drug deals consummated. So when Michelle Van-Tardy, who has lived on the block for years, saw a disheveled woman in her 50s slip into the abandoned house at 569 Mount Vernon Street, she pounced.

“What are you doing in there?” Ms. Van-Tardy barked. “That’s not your home.”

“Mind your own business,” the woman fired back. “It’s not your house.”

“You know what,” Ms. Van-Tardy, 45, persisted, “you go on, keep going in there. I have some metal for you,” a reference to bullets.

“No, that’s all right,” the woman said and left in a hurry.

 
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