It Is Turning Out To Be A Disaster
The Manteca Bulletin reports from California. “Folks who can only afford $500,000 homes are riffraff. Sounds crazy? It doesn’t if you are in Pleasanton and are among those speaking out against plans to build more affordable housing in the community of 70,000 where the medium income household income is $113,345 and the median home value is $813,000. An argument advanced by one Pleasanton resident speaking out against more affordable housing was that $500,000 homes attracted Central Valley riffraff. Whoa. Middle income families in Manteca would have a struggle paying the median Pleasanton rent of $2,500 let alone the mortgage payment on an $813,000 home.”
The Mercury News. “While price increases took a bit of a breather during the late fall and early winter, there’s little sign the hot market that’s causing such pain for buyers will end any time soon. Prices reached all-time highs in San Mateo County in October and Santa Clara County in June, according to CoreLogic DataQuick. Sales last month were at their lowest level for a November since 2007-08 in the East Bay and South Bay, according to the report. ‘Around here, there’s a bazillion buyers, and there’s nothing to buy,’ said Colleen Larkin of Thornwall Properties in Berkeley. ‘I don’t think it’s going to end.’”
The Press Democrat. “The Sonoma County housing market is ending 2014 much as it began the year, with slightly lower sales, higher prices and a marked drop in the number of economically distressed properties. But while selection remains tight, buyers this fall have shown a reluctance to pay more for a home than the recent sales price of comparable properties. ‘Last year no one was dropping their price,’ said Tom Kemper, manager of the Coldwell Banker office in Santa Rosa. But this fall many sellers have done so after first trying to get more money than a neighbor did for a comparable home.”
“Buyers, said Kemper, seem to be telling sellers ‘we’re not going to pay 20 grand more than the last guy just because you want it.’”
The Sacramento Bee. “Sacramento County’s housing market continued its traditional seasonal slowdown in November, with the number of sales falling significantly compared with October, CoreLogic DataQuick reported. Sales of all homes – new, resale and condos – in Sacramento County totaled 1,459, down 22 percent from 1,871 in October. That was the worst November since 2007, when 1,341 sold.”
“The story was the same throughout the Sacramento region and statewide. There were 527 closings in Placer County in November, down 27.4 percent from 726 in October. El Dorado County saw a 38.6 percent decline, from 311 in October to 191 last month. The monthly drop was nearly 19 percent in Yolo County, with 144 closings in November vs. 177 in October. CoreLogic DataQuick analyst Andrew LePage noted that year-over-year home sales in Sacramento County were down in 10 of the 11 months reported so far this year; the only exception was a tiny 0.2 percent rise in September.”
The Daily Bulletin. “Home sales across Southern California sank to their lowest level for a November in seven years and prices showed more signs of flattening as the market’s slump dragged on, according to CoreLogic DataQuick. Sales of new and previously owned houses and condominiums fell 9.5 percent from a year ago in the six-county region with Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties posting the biggest declines at 10 percent. ‘It is turning out to be, I guess you could say, a disaster,’ Robert Kleinhenz, chief economist at the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp., said of the region’s market.”
The Union Tribune. “The pace of home-price appreciation in San Diego County fell last month to its lowest rate since June 2012, the period just before real-estate investors pushed annual gains into the double digits for a nearly 18 month stretch. From October to November, home prices fell $10,000, and activity dropped by 19 percent to 2,675 transactions. ‘Interest rates, price appreciation, household income, inflation, all of these things are fairly stable right now so there’s no particular motivating factor to move somebody up or down in price or in or out of the market,’ said Mark Goldman, a loan officer and real-estate lecturer at San Diego State University. ‘Now owner occupants look more to the purchase price of a home as an alternative for purchasing shelter, as opposed to a speculative investment of purchasing a home that will go up in value.’”
“the median Pleasanton rent of $2,500 let alone the mortgage payment on an $813,000 home…”
Price = 325 x rent & 8 x gross income.
$800,000 on $50K take home, you’d never live to pay it off.
Who’s calling who riffraff?
‘Atascadero has a new ban on the books: the practice of picking through waste bins to look for recyclables to cash in or unwanted food to eat.’
‘On Dec. 9, the Atascadero City Council passed a new law, dubbed an anti-scavenging ordinance, which makes the activity an infraction. The ordinance was the product of numerous complaints from residents in recent years, said Atascadero Police Chief Jerel Haley.’
‘The council previously considered this ordinance, but delayed making a decision after Councilmember Roberta Fonzi expressed some concern that prohibiting these activities would cut a lifeline used by some who are “down on their luck.”
‘That some people may resort to gathering recyclables, food, or other unwanted goods was brought up by one Atascadero resident.’
“I see this ordinance as another attempt to criminalize poverty,” Michael Conger said. “I feel that is wrong, and I don’t want to see my city do that.”
‘Two other residents had favorable words about the ordinance. “We regularly get woken up at 3:30 a.m. by cars, people talking loudly, rummaging through the trash, leaving stuff out on the street,” said John Sanders. “I fully support this ordinance.”
Down on their luck? In California?
“Raw food chef Roxanne Klein and her entrepreneur/guitar-CEO husband, Michael Klein, have put their neoclassical-revival mega-manse on the market for $39 million. The couple have only owned the seven-bedroom, 16,000-square-foot home, located at 2701 Broadway, for two and a half years, having picked it up from real-estate mogul Ron Zeff for $27 million back in 2012…. The ask is a full $12 million above the last sale price, though the present owners haven’t so much as changed the paint in the au pair suite.”
Got equity?
Won’t know until when and if the place sells whether the equity is positive or negative…
maybe someone from facebook will buy it? chump change for someone who owned a lot of shares.
There aren’t enough Facebook millionaires to rescue all the FBs from their financial follies.
Yep. Criminalizing poverty. Stay classy, CA.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=vuD1oDth6es
I guess I’m not even good enough to be riff-raff.
This is what is causing the “disaster”: “Inventory still lags demand in many markets,”
Not enough homes are on the market, which is driving prices higher. At what point to higher prices bring additional sellers? Additional development?
Based on the prices, I would not call the environment for those selling a “disaster”. It is much more of a disaster for those who make their money by buying/selling homes (brokers, who need volume), and buyers who are trying to get a reasonable price.
Why don’t you call him up and ask why it’s a disaster? It seems pretty clear to me.
Meanwhile, back in la la land:
‘Evan Spiegel, the 24-year-old Stanford dropout who is now CEO at Snapchat, was worried about a tech bubble a year ago when he rejected selling the company for $3 billion to Facebook, according to a memo leaked in the mega-Sony hack.’
‘Here is what he wrote last November, according to Business Insider:
“(The Federal Reserve) has created abnormal market conditions by printing money and keeping interest rates low. Investors are looking for growth anywhere they can find it, and tech companies are good targets — at these values, however, all tech stocks are expensive — even looking at 5-plus years of revenue growth down the road.
“This means that most value-driven investors have left the market and the remaining 5-10 percent-plus increase in market value will be driven by momentum investors. At some point there won’ t be any momentum investors left buying at higher prices, and the market begins to tumble. May be 10-20 percent correction or something more significant, especially in tech stocks.”
“Facebook has continued to perform in the market despite declining user engagement and pullback of brand advertising dollars — largely due to mobile advertising performance — especially App Install advertisements. This is a huge red flag because it indicates that sustainable brand dollars have not yet moved to Facebook mobile platform and mobile revenue growth has been driven by technology companies (many of which are VC funded).”
“VC dollars are being spent on user acquisition despite unknown (long-term value) of users — a recipe for disaster. This props up Facebook share price and continues to justify VC investment in technology products based on abnormally large (market) cap companies (i.e. ‘If this company attracts just 5 percent of users that FB has, it will be HUGE’ — fuels spend on user acquisition as user growth is tied to values).”
“When the market for tech stocks cools, Facebook market cap will plummet, access to capital for unproven businesses will become inaccessible, and ad spend on user acquisition will rapidly decrease — compounding problems for Facebook and driving stock even lower.”
“Total Internet advertising spend cannot justify outsized valuations of social media products that derive revenue from advertising. Feed-based advertising units will plummet in value”
Given all of that, shouldn’t he have taken the $3 billion from Facebook before the crash? Or was Facebook offering to pay him in Facebook stock?
Ugh, i’m thinking like Mikey.
Do any of the dot com 2.0 companies pay their employees’ salaries in bitcoin?
Or was Facebook offering to pay him in Facebook stock?
That would be my guess, and I’m sure that there would have been a sale restriction on the FB stock so he wouldn’t just turn around and dump it.
Will he regret not taking the money and running (or was it stock in Facebook offered)?
Also from the article,mthis quote which sickens me:
“The email was written a year ago, and Facebook’s stock has risen by about 65 percent since then. Snapchat’s valuation, meanwhile, has jumped to more than three times what Facebook offered.”
Future historians are going to have a field day with this nonsense.
These valuations are asinine.
Prices are cratering and it is actually now being reported. No one with half a neuron trusts or beleives realtors after the last debacle. And the hedge funds are running for the exits along with the new home builders, flippers and speculators like you are getting crushed.
As prices continue to fall back to 2011 prices and below, you will have no one to blame but yourself for not getting out in one piece.
I read a story once about a guy who showed up at the ER with a knife sticking out of the top of his head. He was talking to all the ER staff and emergency responders just fine, perfectly lucid. One of the doctors said that they knew that when they pulled that knife out he was going to die, but for that brief moment the guy appeared just fine.
Sound familiar? It will.
Try not to catch a falling knife in the head by buying in CA just before the next housing price collapse.
‘Prices reached all-time highs in San Mateo County in October and Santa Clara County in June’
Note the past tense.
‘China is aiming to purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020, stepping up efforts to shift to Chinese suppliers, according to people familiar with the effort.’
‘The plan for changes in four segments of the economy is driven by national security concerns and marks an increasingly determined move away from foreign suppliers under President Xi Jinping, the people said. The campaign could have lasting consequences for U.S. companies including Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO), International Business Machines Corp. (IBM), Intel Corp. (INTC) and Hewlett-Packard Co.
“The shift is real,” said Charlie Dai, a Beijing-based analyst for Forrester Research Inc. “We have seen emerging cases of replacing foreign products at all layers from application, middleware down to the infrastructure software and hardware.”
‘China is moving to bolster its technology sector after Edward Snowden revealed widespread spying by the U.S. National Security Agency and accused the intelligence service of hacking into the computers of Tsinghua University, one of the China’s top research centers.’
“I see a trade war happening. This could get ugly fast, and it has,” said Ray Mota, chief executive officer of Gilbert, Arizona-based ACG Research.’
Now what did you expect Silicon Valley? You join up with the NSA and put spyware in everything, and customers leave. No worries, you VC dumbbells just keep plowing your Yellen bucks into worthless nudie photo apps based on worthless walkie-talkie messaging websites.
“a trade war…”
If losing customers is a trade war, you lost by default.
You almost get the impression the real real estate journalists are openly acknowledging that another Housing Bubble price peak is now visible through the lens of the rear view mirror.
Why would Chinese companies want U.S.-made spyware running in their systems if they can produce their own spyware?
China is aiming to purge most foreign technology from banks, the military, state-owned enterprises and key government agencies by 2020
Does that mean they will design their own Intel compatible CPUs (a la AMD) so they can run their own flavor of Linux on it? Will they abandon Windoze for the desktop and make their own clone as well?
“Foreign suppliers may be able to avoid replacement if they share their core technology or give China’s security inspectors access to their products, the people said. The technology may then be seen as safe and controllable, they said.”
This is what they’re really after.
and make their own clone as well ??
Thats the real bottom line IMO….Its what the Chinese do best…Copy…Has little to do with spyware…They need technology and need it fast…So, just get the best from whatever source, take it appart, copy it with your own people, then throw the Cisco’s out…Tried and true method for them…
US government does not allow carriers to use Huawei systems from China.
More signs of China’s economic “collapse”:
Natural gas consumption growth in China is estimated at 9 percent this year, the first time that expansion has been in the single-digit range since 2007, experts said on Wednesday.
During the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-20), consumption will rise only about 8 percent annually on average, said Qian Xingkun, vice-president of CNPC Economics and Technology Research Institute, an energy think tank run by the China National Petroleum Corp.
He offered the figures during the Third Asian Gas Market Forum in Beijing.
“Because of China’s economic slowdown, annual growth in the nation’s natural gas consumption will no longer run at double-digit levels,” he said.
He estimated that this year’s natural gas use will grow 9 percent to 183 billion cubic meters.
Gas consumption will continue rising, but it won’t reach the levels that were previously forecast by the government. Consumption will be 200 bcm in 2015 and 300 bcm in 2020, Qian said.
Due to China’s rapid economic growth and environmental protection efforts, natural gas demand has increased in recent years.
Consumption growth exceeded 10 percent in 2007. By 2011, the expansion rate had more than doubled to some 20 percent, which pushed up imports.
Even last year, demand was still expanding relatively rapidly. China used 168 bcm of natural gas in 2013 with annual growth of 13.9 percent. Imports accounted for more than 30 percent of the market for the first time in 2013.
But consumption growth has slowed in tandem with weaker economic expansion.
According to the National Development and Reform Commission, the top economic planner, China used 63.2 bcm of natural gas in the first half of this year, up 7.5 percent year-on-year.
Yang Lei, deputy director of the oil and gas department at the National Energy Administration, said that China needs to establish a natural gas trading market.
Wang Zhigang, senior vice-president of China Petroleum & Chemical Corp (Sinopec), said that the nation’s gas consumption structure is improving as its growth slows.
According to Wang, Sinopec has “ambitious” shale gas development plans for the 13th Five-Year Plan period. It aims to achieve annual output of 10 bcm by 2020.
Tu Jianjun, China program manager of the International Energy Agency, said it is urgent for China to establish an influential natural gas trading center.
“The country’s natural gas pricing mechanism should be improved as well to reflect the diversification of the country’s gas supplies,” he said.
Sorry article from China Daily.
Does that mean they will design their own Intel compatible CPUs (a la AMD) so they can run their own flavor of Linux on it?
Linux is not a Chinese invention. Would they use it if they want to rid themselves of foreign software?
R_Fraud,
When you can head to the Craterfornia, borrow the money to over pay 400% for a run down house then stop making payments and still live there for years, what did you think would happen?
California is the welfare capital of the world.
“Sales of new and previously owned houses and condominiums fell 9.5 percent from a year ago in the six-county region with Los Angeles, San Bernardino and Riverside counties posting the biggest declines at 10 percent.”
What is it about disastrous 10% declines in year-on-year sales volume that is so hard to understand?
What this guy has realized is that the only thing keeping a million dollar median up is the hope of a 1.2 million median next year.
You seem to be ignoring my point:
“Inventory still lags demand in many markets,”
Supply constraints drive prices higher, and necessarily lead to fewer sales (not as much to sell).
At what point do higher prices bring out more sellers, or increase development?
10% sales volume reduction is a symptom of this problem, and the sales volume reduction is a disaster if you make more money with higher volume (ie. you’re a broker).
You seem to be ignoring the fact there are millions of excess, empty and defaulted houses in CA.
Around here, there’s a bazillion buyers, and there’s nothing to buy,’
Santa Clara CA has lots of industrial building going on near Levis Staduim.
lots of money lots of jobs. And its expensive as a result, very expensive
Buy now or be priced out forever.
With sales gone and appreciation slowing to rates in the range of Treasury bond yields, what’s to even keep California real estate investors in the game anymore?
Sunshine and unrealistic hope. Hope is not a plan, nor a strategy.
Nor is sunshine a paycheck.
When I lived in San Diego I was told that it was the reason pay was lower in America’s Finest City
Maybe all the meth helps, too.
‘According to California-based homebuilder, KB Home, the housing recovery “varies significantly on a local basis” with some areas demonstrating strong demand, while other areas witness softer volumes.’
In the UT article:
‘From October to November, home prices fell $10,000, and activity dropped by 19 percent’
Gosh, I hope everybody had a sizable down payment. Otherwise, with selling costs, they’d be underwater.
‘‘Now owner occupants look more to the purchase price of a home as an alternative for purchasing shelter, as opposed to a speculative investment of purchasing a home that will go up in value.’
So these “owner occupants” who were looking at prices with a speculative investment in mind; do they expect the current buyers to look at the same prices as an alternative to shelter?
There is a disconnect in that article. If prices are falling, the owners should be looking at housing as a sure way to lose money, not as “alternative shelter”.
Where is the IE King?
‘Home sales in Inland Southern California closed on a low note in November, according to a CoreLogic DataQuick real estate report. Sales in the two-county region were down 10 percent compared with November 2013, with home price gains keeping a lid on sales.’
‘There were fewer investor purchases, and there also was a low number of business days to record sales, Andrew LePage, an analyst for CoreLogic DataQuick said Monday. “The drop in sales volume was unusually sharp.”
‘Across Southern California, where 15,643 sales were recorded, it was the worst November in seven years. Sales performance was equally dismal in October, prompting Inland area real estate watchers to predict 2014 will be capped at levels below last year.’
‘Gene Wunderlich, government affairs director with Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors, said 2014 is shaping up to be the slowest since 2008. Investors and first-time buyers who drove the market from 2009 to 2012 have largely abandoned it because of escalating prices, Wunderlich said.’
Dismal? Abandoned? Why the use of such terms is terrible.
Whoops! There It Is! Whoops There it is!
Riverside, CA Sale Prices Sink 5% YoY; Plunge 12% MoM As Demand Plummets
http://www.zillow.com/highgrove-ca-92507/home-values/
He is lying in a Moreno Valley or Perris hovel, crying tears into a sweat stained pillow, mumbling, “Zestimate, my zestimate…”
^LOLZ
Hmm, seems to be a disconnect on this blog….
The median price increased 7 percent from $385,000 a year ago to $412,000 last month.
That was the sixth consecutive month of a single-digit year-over-year percentage gain in the median price, following 22 months of double-digit increases.
In Los Angeles County sales fell from 5,884 a year ago to 5,283. The median price increased 7 percent from $424,500 last year to $455,000 in November.
In San Bernardino County sales declined from 2,130 a year ago to 1,926 last month. The median price rose 17 percent from $218,500 a year ago to $255,000. The county posted the biggest price increase in the region.
The median is a flawed, lagging indicator. For instance, in the Press Democrat article, read what the mix of sales was and think what that would do to the median figure. Last year no one was cutting their price!
Starter home inventory disappeared. Now all that’s left are sales of higher priced houses which first time buyers and median income earners can’t afford. The median does not tell the whole story, but JingleBail doesn’t want to hear that.
yep…from the Santa Rosa PD article….
“Transactions have dipped 22 percent this year for single-family homes selling for less than $500,000. But they have risen 24 percent for homes that sold for $700,000 or more. ”
locally you can buy an OK place for $500K or even $400K…but I’m waiting for prices to drop to $250K or less after Bubble 2.0 pops, that would be roughly 10 years rent for a SFH in a decent neighborhood…will continue to rent in the meantime.
With the change in the mix like that, prices could be plummeting and the median wouldn’t show it. And having watched this exact scenario play out in hundreds of cities before, it’s the norm rather than the exception. That’s why the median is a lagging indicator. When sales turn down sharply, and keep going down, you know what’s coming next.
But the media will keep the REIC happy in the meantime, singing about the year over year numbers and last summers record high.
Median is mainly flawed due to changes in mix (bigger houses, etc.). Correcting for size and with larger sample sizes, median is more meaningful.
If you look at median sale price per foot by county on a y-o-y basis per Zillow, all are up year on year, with most in the mid-single digits.
Sonoma County per Zillow had median sale price per foot go up by 10% year on year…part of it has to do with lack of inventory (lack of supply). From the PD article:
““I think part of that is the lack of inventory,” she said.
November ended with 1.8 months’ worth of inventory at the current pace of sales. In contrast, three years ago the county reported a 3.5-month supply of inventory.”
What does it say to you if there is 1.8 months of inventory on supposedly weak sales numbers? Since the denominator is the number of homes sold in a given month, getting a 1.8 reading with a LOWER denominator means there is even less available for sale than 1.8 months of inventory would imply with a “normal” sales pace.
With respect to price reductions–there is always some number of listings with a price reduction. The mere existence of price reductions should not be a surprise.
A market going up by double-digits per year is consistent with a market where sellers are offering few price reductions to sell the homes.
A market going up by single-digits per year is consistent with a market where sellers are offering more price reductions to sell the homes.
I stand by my prior view…to get a meaningful reduction in prices in CA, we need to see more supply come online…and that will require more development. And that hasn’t started yet.
“…and that will require more development. And that hasn’t started yet.”
Wouldn’t release of millions of homes in shadow inventory do it?
There is no “lack of inventory” with 4.4 million excess empty houses. Further, unit price doesn’t capture additional structures, pools, lot sizes etc.
And you’ll see Sonoma CA sale prices have evaporated to near nothing YoY and have fallen precipitously MoM and QoQ.
Sonoma-Petaluma, CA YoY Sale Gains Evaporate; Prices Plummet 10% QoQ
http://www.zillow.com/petaluma-ca-95476/home-values/
Whac-
We’re talking about California. “Millions of homes” in shadow inventory don’t exist in this state. If you believe that, HA really has pulled the wool over your eyes.
Where are these mythical homes? Who owns them? Why don’t they show up on the balance sheets of banks? Delinquency rates are way down, vacancy rates are way down (below where vacancy rates were in 2005), and while there was a one month blip up in foreclosure activity–last month CA was not mentioned by RealtyTrac’s Foreclosure report as one of the states with increasing foreclosure activity.
Talking about something like it’s true doesn’t make it true.
It’s like saying “Oil prices are going to rise again to over $100 once the Martians come back from vacation and take their cars out of storage.”
Since HA doesn’t want to share the data that leads him to believe in 4.4 million excess homes, perhaps you would like to enlighten us? How do you get to your number of “millions” of homes in shadow inventory in CA?
And HA, do you realize that in Sonoma County (population about 500k), the City of Sonoma is tiny (about 10k), right?
“Where are these mythical homes? Who owns them?”
We already established that over and over again. It just doesn’t align with your wallet.
You’ve got a big problem.
As you know Jingle_Fraud, You can ask $50k for your 15 year old Honda Civic but where is the buyer at that price?
So it is with houses.
my state budgets review
frack states- dead
realwhore states like ca,az,fl dead
ag states like NE,KS,IA -dead
that leaves manufacturers that are catching a break on energy prices and riding the car buying bubble
that leaves?
2041 CA had YOY gains of 5-15% depending on the area. The Bay area is still on fire. It is now in the record books. Did I mention EL Nino year for rain?
“San Diego Realtor Sentenced for Commercial Sex with 13-Year-Old Girl”
http://www.fbi.gov/sandiego/press-releases/2014/san-diego-realtor-sentenced-for-commercial-sex-with-13-year-old-girl
Here’s some Yellen poof for ya’.
‘There are zombies in the oil fields. After crude prices dropped 49 percent in six months, oil projects planned for next year are the undead — still standing upright, but with little hope of a productive future. These zombie projects proliferate in expensive Arctic oil, deepwater-drilling regions and tar sands from Canada to Venezuela.’
‘In a stunning analysis this week, Goldman Sachs found almost $1 trillion in investments in future oil projects at risk. They looked at 400 of the world’s largest new oil and gas fields — excluding U.S. shale — and found projects representing $930 billion of future investment that are no longer profitable with Brent crude at $70. In the U.S., the shale-oil party isn’t over yet, but zombies are beginning to crash it.’
Saw gasoline @ 2.21 on my way into work. My experience in years past is that gasoline prices are sticky on the way down. Not this year, they’re in free fall.
Not this year, they’re in free fall ??
Que-up Neocon Kudlow….”Drill-Baby-Drill”….What a piece of Chit…
Here’s some more:
“The iron ore price reached a fresh five-and-half-year low on Wednesday after surprisingly weak imports by top consumer China.
The CFR 62% Fe 2% Al benchmark import price at the port of Qingdao tracked by The SteelIndex declined 20c to $69.10 a tonne, the lowest since June 1, 2009.
The price of the steelmaking raw material is down just under 50% since the start of the year.
Fears of a deteriorating outlook for China, buyer of nearly 70% of the world’s seaborne cargoes, intensified after customs data showed a 15% plunge in November iron ore imports to 67.4 million tonnes.
Year-on-year the decline was 13.4% and it was the first first November decline in the country’s imports of the steelmaking raw material since 1998. The only other time November imports fell since records began was in 1996, according to Bloomberg.
Another indication of declining demand was evidenced by shipping rates for iron ore carriers, which fell to the lowest level since January 2009.”
http://www.mining.com/new-iron-ore-price-low-after-weakest-china-imports-in-16-years-19518/
Besides oil, iron is a good measure of China’s rapidly contracting construction & manufacturing activity. It is dropping like an anvil from the sky. Oh, they’ll be fine since they are making cheap knock-offs of smart phones.
Meh, No worries, oil will be back up next summer. Maybe not over $100 but certainly up from where it is now. Call it inch worm (elastic) supply and demand.
‘Auction.com, LLC, the nation’s leading online real estate marketplace, today announced the findings from its November Real Estate Investor Activity Report™, a nationwide survey of real estate investors bidding on properties offered for auction during the month. This research provides insight into real estate investment trends on both a national and regional level. Survey data collected from investors bidding on property online and at live events across the country reveals that buying property to hold and rent is currently favored over flipping nationwide, although investor intent varies considerably by vehicle (online or live event) and investor profile.’
‘Flipping was also the more popular strategy among investors purchasing multiple properties per year – particularly institutional investors (those indicating that they purchase 50 or more properties per year). This was true for both online auctions and live events.’
http://us1.campaign-archive1.com/?u=9e5649e9744d874916bb930fe&id=9536ccc9fa&e=5931759b0e
Wait a minute. I thought these institutional investors were all buy and hold types?
kreigh-der
Falling demand and surplus capacity everywhere.
Flower Mound, TX Sale Prices Turn Negative On Year; Down 4% YoY, 14% QoQ and 8% MoM As Demand Craters
http://www.zillow.com/flower-mound-tx/home-values/
I’m from the central valley and I am proud to be riff raff. $500,000 is riff raff? Let me tell you: A $200,000 house in Fresno is probably high end. Haven’t checked the prices lately.
To battle people like that I have to continue my defiance and keep my money working for me in the stock funds. Oh found out today Fidelity Contra fund paid me a dividend of over $6,000 on a $100,000 balance in my ex employer’s 401k. I did not have to mow a bunch of lawns for that $6,000. I did not have to spend weekends at Home Depot for that $6,000. I did not have to shake down tenants who punched holes in walls and tore out the plumbing for that $6,000.
I’ll continue being a riff raff and drive my reliable 2003 Toyota economy car in the traffic of late model Lexuses Infinitis, Mercedes Benzs, Audis, and BMWs. Because I have most of my assets working for me to defy the bozos who have the RE snobbery.
I wouldn’t crow too much about that $6k.
The majority of that $6k is capital gains, meaning trading profits.
2013 was also a very good year (similar dividend).
2012, not so much (dividends less than 1%)
2011, <1%
2010, <1%
2009, <1%
Yes, the fund itself has gone up dramatically from the lows in 2009–like lots of equities, but you probably shouldn’t plan on getting 6% every year in dividends.
Yeah someone else told me
My initial thought was “Wow, 6% for a mutual fund?!?! I should sell some of my measly 3.5% dividend individual stocks and get more diversity and more yield.”
But alas, it is not to be.
Oh well. It’s up by $4,000 since I had that fund opened in September or October.
A lot of different stocks are up 4% since September (I know my industrial REIT portfolio is).