December 24, 2014

Bits Bucket for December 24, 2014

Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.

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Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 02:35:16

Minnesota town unable to give away free lots
CLAREMONT, Minn. (AP) — A small southeastern Minnesota community is trying but failing to give away land for free.
Claremont, which has about 500 residents, has had no takers in the three years it has been offering free lots to anyone with a qualifying income who is willing to build a house, Minnesota Public Radio News reported. The city, which is located between Owatonna and Rochester, has three churches, three parks, a gas station and a bank — all within one square mile.
Sorg said the transfer would require $1,000 in administrative fees but would otherwise be free for anyone who meets the income requirements, such as making no more than $74,200 for a family of two.
“First come, first served,” she said. “Fourteen choices. And some of them, they’re not all the same size lots. Some are a little bit bigger than the others.”

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 10:57:42

Giving away the land to get someone to build on it seems like a good business move on the part of the city.

Once something is built there, they can tax it. So they are turning something non-productive (e.g. not generating taxes) into something is productive (generating taxes).

Smart move.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 11:24:28

You’d think other municipalities with abandoned properties or vacant homes would catch on, wouldn’t you?

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:37:08

You’d think other municipalities with abandoned properties or vacant homes would catch on
Even if they did catch on, where are the ‘takers’ for free land?
I must say I admire what one small town in ND did. Rather than let lots in the heart of town go abandoned, they allowed them to be converted to full-hookup RV sites for land owners. During the warm season the lots were occupied full time by rather expensive-looking RVs, which spent winters somewhere much warmer. A win-win for everyone involved, was my take on it. Where I now live in OH, I was able to park my truck camper in my own driveway from 1983-2005, in which year the practice was outlawed. I now live next to an abandoned house with a littered yard.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 11:53:03

Why wouldn’t you dump worthless dirt?

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-24 15:39:36

Smart move by the statists. But only state worshippers would take the bait. the econmicaly astute types would not take the bait. Tax trap! Particularly with a glaring “too good to be true” deal. Beautiful as a red hourglass image on the belly of a Black widow.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 12:48:14

Once you take the speculation out of the equation, nobody wants it. “You mean I have to build a HOUSE?! Fawk you!”

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 02:47:42

Another Christmas as a renter, what a sad life that must be.

Comment by butters
2014-12-24 02:56:25

Another christmas soliciting, what a sad crack whore you must be.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:19:39

That is defamation. She is not sad, she just did some crack. When the crack wears off, she will be sad.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 05:33:01

We’re inconsolable. Now please go away.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 06:02:53

Realtors are liars.

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-24 06:26:13

Family, friends, good food, presents, the joy of children’s laughter and the misery of Amy’s bitter tears. All can be enjoyed equally in rented or owned walls.

My favorite Christmas Eve story was the Sheriff’s Deputy coming to serve us with an eviction notice on Christmas Eve when I was a kid. One a scale of 1 to 100, it moved my needle about to a 3.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 16:06:45

You’re harshing my buzz, dude.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 07:28:11

Another December with no home sales. What a sad lot in life to be a Realtor.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:41:03

“While this approach has succeeded in boosting financial markets, it has failed to cure bruised and battered developed economies, which remain mired in subpar recoveries and plagued with deflationary risks. Moreover, the longer central banks promote financial-market froth, the more dependent their economies become on these precarious markets and the weaker the incentives for politicians and fiscal authorities to address the need for balance-sheet repair and structural reform.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:33:31

Remember….. Deflation makes every dollar in your wallet more valuable. Deflation is your wallets best friend.

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Comment by Pete
2014-12-24 14:43:47

But the problem with deflation is the dollars in your wallet will get awfully lonely… many less of them will be coming in.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 14:58:47

That doesn’t align too well with the fact we’re in a deflationary spiral and I have more money coming in than I know what to do with.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 15:56:48

The fact that you have more money coming in than you know what to do with doesn’t align too well with the suggestion that we’re in a deflationary spiral.

I can’t point to much (other than deflating commodity bubbles) to suggest that there is any deflation at all; I’m guessing that you can’t either.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 18:01:10

Prices are falling my friend.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-25 00:35:57

Eggs? Steaks?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-25 10:35:58

Falling beef prices.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-25 14:57:34

Hasn’t shown up in my grocery store yet…

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:48:48

Salem, OR Sale Prices Crater 7% YoY As Housing Correction Resumes

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 12:50:17

How’s Christmas Eve in your leased Lexus/home, Amy? Do you have enough fuel to keep the heat running all night? Or has it been repo’d?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 08:33:58

“So what does this mean? Well, as we learned earlier US GDP grew in Q3 by a nominal $272 billion to $17.6 trillion. We now know that more than half of this increase came from, drum roll please, data revisions! “

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 05:39:49

One more smash-and-grab day for “protesters” before Christmas.

Comment by aNYCdj
2014-12-24 08:30:53

what they forgot was:

He also said the 9 mm gun found on the suspect had five rounds in the magazine and one round in the chamber. He also said the gun’s serial number had been filed off.

Belmar declined to release his name at the news conference but said he had a criminal record, with charges including three assaults, armed robbery, armed criminal action and multiple uses of weapons since he was 17.

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 09:20:38

said he had a criminal record, with charges including three assaults, armed robbery, armed criminal action and multiple uses of weapons since he was 17.
Sounds like a “Known Wolf” attack.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 12:51:27

“…the 9 mm gun found on the suspect had five rounds in the magazine and one round in the chamber. He also said the gun’s serial number had been filed off.”

He din do NUFFINS!

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-24 14:53:41

And there’s no way that a cop could get hold of such a gun himself, and keep it around just in case. That’s never happened before.

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 15:27:55

Did you even watch the video? Sure looks to me as though he is pointing a gun at the cop.

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-24 18:40:29

I couldn’t determine anything from that video, which has a disclaimer saying that it”s very hard to see what”s happening since it’s so far away from the camera. Perhaps you’re seeing what you want or expect to see?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-25 00:39:14

No worries—the video shows very clearly that there are some up-close eye witnesses.

Let’s wait to hear what their testimony shows, eh?

I love how you were already implying that the cop might be dirty and have tossed a throw-down weapon after the shooting. That’s irresponsible, plain and simple.

How many of those casting allegations actually bothered to read the Grand Jury testimony in the Ferguson case after it was released?

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-25 08:09:28

“irresponsible, plain and simple”

LOL. No one judges anyone early in these police shootings, eh? Just joining in the fun, sorry I picked the wrong side. I’m not a natural-born authority-believer.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-25 15:03:41

No one judges anyone early in these police shootings, eh?

The obvious problem is that everyone does.

I’m not a natural-born authority-believer.

Nor am I. I am strongly opposed to many of the corrupt practices of authority.

But I also believe in letting the system attempt to go through its motions before deciding that the system has failed.

The Ferguson eyewitnesses were enlightening; so many flat-out bald-faced lies were told in the first few days after the incident.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 05:42:10

American Realty stock dropping faster than Amy Hoax’s prom dress.

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-24 06:36:46

Cmon, nobody invited her to the prom.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 06:40:58

There was a troopship in the harbor that day. They caught her swimming after it.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:39:44

“In the 24 months from June 2004, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from 1% to 5.25% in 17 increments of 25 basis points each. Meanwhile, housing and credit bubbles were rapidly expanding, fueling excessive household consumption, a sharp drop in personal savings, and a record current-account deficit — imbalances that set the stage for the meltdown that was soon to follow.”

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Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 05:44:41

Russians rushing to buy into a bubble house market as faith in their currency wanes (coming soon to a Fed-debased currency near you). What could possibly go wrong?

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-24 15:18:45

Hyperinflation at the gate. Could be instructive to watch.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 05:47:48

The Fed’s easy-money policies have fed rampant speculation and hot-money flows, which Chinese running up huge dollar-denominated debts. Will 2015 be the year when the house of cards comes crashing down?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:35:18

is a lot of this FED talk just hype?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 07:44:57

S&P 500
2,085 +2.66 +0.13%

U.S. stocks take aim at more records in early trade as Santa rally continues

Opinion: The Fed is heading for another catastrophe
By Stephen S. Roach
Published: Dec 24, 2014 9:15 a.m. ET
With so much dry kindling, it will not take much to spark the next conflagration
Stephen Roach

NEW HAVEN, Conn. (Project Syndicate) – America’s Federal Reserve is headed down a familiar — and highly dangerous — path. Steeped in denial of its past mistakes, the Fed is pursuing the same incremental approach that helped set the stage for the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The consequences could be similarly catastrophic.

Consider the December meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, where discussions of raising the benchmark federal funds rate were couched in adjectives, rather than explicit actions.

In line with prior forward guidance that the policy rate would be kept near zero for a “considerable” amount of time after the Fed stopped purchasing long-term assets in October, the FOMC declared that it can now afford to be “patient” in waiting for the right conditions to raise the rate. Add to that Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s declaration that at least a couple more FOMC meetings would need to take place before any such “lift-off” occurs, and the Fed seems to be telegraphing a protracted journey on the road to policy normalization.

This bears an eerie resemblance to the script of 2004-2006, when the Fed’s incremental approach led to the near-fatal mistake of condoning mounting excesses in financial markets and the real economy. After pushing the federal funds rate to a 45-year low of 1% following the collapse of the equity bubble of the early 2000s, the Fed delayed policy normalization for an inordinately long period. And when it finally began to raise the benchmark rate, it did so excruciatingly slowly.

In the 24 months from June 2004, the FOMC raised the federal funds rate from 1% to 5.25% in 17 increments of 25 basis points each. Meanwhile, housing and credit bubbles were rapidly expanding, fueling excessive household consumption, a sharp drop in personal savings, and a record current-account deficit — imbalances that set the stage for the meltdown that was soon to follow.

The Fed, of course, has absolved itself of any blame in setting up the U.S. and the global economy for the Great Crisis. It was not monetary policy’s fault, argued both former Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke; if anything, they insisted, a lack of regulatory oversight was the culprit.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 13:31:56

“Steeped in denial of its past mistakes, the Fed is pursuing the same incremental approach that helped set the stage for the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The consequences could be similarly catastrophic.”

This Roach must be a newbie or something, because he foolishly believes the Fed doesn’t know exactly what it’s doing, and that the past was actually somehow a negative for the big banks. The “crisis” was actually extremely profitable, and the taxpayers took the losses while the 1%’ers reaped all the gains. The Fed and its constituents would LOVE another opportunity like that. It wasn’t catastrophic, it was orgasmic!

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 16:14:56

The funniest part for the .1% is that 95% of the electorate - the Obama Zombies, the McCain Mutants, and the Romney Retards - fresh from their 2008 ass-reaming by the Fed, Treasury, and Congress, turned around and voted for more of the same. So the next rip-off will be even more brazen, since the plutocrats know the herd creatures are too docile and stupid to do anything but vote for moar crony capitalism.

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Comment by real journalists
Comment by aNYCdj
2014-12-24 08:35:57

Little by little my prediction of Ohabhma’s legacy will be the death of political correctness will come true

Comment by In Colorado
2014-12-24 11:47:43

he death of political correctness

Who woulda thunk? Obama did something good.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-24 09:36:35

It should be concerning to all…These things have a way of getting out of control…So many illegal guns on the streets…Many harboring much anger for what ever reason…This shooting of the two police in New York I hope is just a one-off…My fear is we are seeing a acceleration of police needing to act with deadly force which could just inflame things further…

Comment by palmetto
2014-12-24 06:11:36

Wow, James Woods disses Sharpton. I had no idea Sony put Sharpton on its board. Another reason to dislike that company.

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 07:28:42

“Another reason to dislike that company.”

+1 Sony has hired race racketeer and tax cheat, Al Sharpton, for its board.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 06:18:03

I hope Jesse Jackson’s sons can get another Anheuser-Busch distributorship out of this, LOLZ

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 06:27:22

Jes’ Me Jackson has elevated the corporate shakedown to an art form.

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-24 06:51:08

He’s 73 years old. Won’t be around that much longer.

Comment by palmetto
2014-12-24 07:07:19

neither will the incredible shrinking Al, from the looks of him.

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Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 07:13:01


Comment by Dman
2014-12-24 12:21:15

How can you talk about Sharpton when Rudy Giuliani says Obama tells people to hate cops? What a lying cockroach. Oh, I forgot, he’s white. Never mind.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 16:16:55

Get back to HuffPo with the other nitwits.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 16:50:52

Who was it that use to talk about the one faction of the rich using race to get their agenda against another rich faction? Was it Carl and does he ever post anymore?

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 06:22:25

Yellen the Felon and her merry gang of counterfeiters at the Fed have, true to form, set the stage for the collapse of the house of cards they’ve built up with limitless “stimulus” to support greed-fueled speculation. To all the idiots who voted for pro-bailout candidates Obama, McCain, and Romney: get ready to grab your ankles for Wall Street yet again.

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-24 06:46:42

Let the stock market drop by 1/3 and every chucked and their brother will be Gang ho with any bail out same as last time?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:27:13

The million dollar question is whether or not stimulus will continue or not. They have been talking about ending it for a long time. Without it the market tanks. So are they setting the retail investor up for failure or is all this talk about rate hikes and ending stimulus just hype? It sure seems like they control the equity markets doesn’t it?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:09:41

“As prices continue falling, your million dollars grow ever more valuable with each passing day.

That’s right.

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Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 08:15:38

Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:24:12

“Why buy a house at these grossly inflated prices when prices are falling? Buy later after prices crater for 65% less.”


Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 08:33:48

Every first day of the month is like Christmas for your landlord.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:38:52

Here’s a good example.

Renton, WA Sale Prices Plummet 15% YoY

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 08:46:03

Rent is due a week from tomorrow.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:52:32

With rental rates half the cost of buying at current grossly inflated prices of resale housing, why buy?

“Falling Rental Prices”

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 09:01:31

Looking forward to another year with a 2% raise and a 10% rent increase?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 09:08:36

Remember…. falling prices of all items is positively bullish and good for the economy.

Colorado Springs Sale Prices Crater 10% YoY; Sellers Slash Prices As Housing Inventory Skyrockets

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 09:16:24

Can you pick up another shift later this week to make up for Arby’s being closed tomorrow?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 09:35:33

Your defaulted mortgage payment is due a week from tomorrow.

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 09:39:30

Raising your children in a rental is child abuse.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 10:08:49

“Why buy when you can rent for half the monthly cost?”

You better believe it Amy.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 10:12:32

merry xmas amy!

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:18:26

Ho Ho Ho!!!

Comment by Amy Hoax
2014-12-24 10:21:24

It’s nice to see someone here who isn’t a renter Grinch. Go spend some of that equity and buy yourself something nice, azdude.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 10:27:46

More good news.

Oceanside, CA Sale Prices Plunge 11% YoY; Underwater Sellers Slash Prices

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 13:35:35

“Go spend some of that equity and buy yourself something nice, azdude.”

You’re brilliant, Amy. If you weren’t leasing your Lexus, I’d recommend you take the title down to the local payday loan store and hock it for some cold, hard cash at 800% APY, because you’re smart like that.

Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2014-12-24 06:25:38

Oil going down faster than Amy Hoax on her first car date. If this continues, there will be no happy finish for the junk bond bubble (unlike Amy’s date).

Comment by Shillow
2014-12-24 06:57:23

They say the invention of the drive-in movie deserves some credit for the advent of the sexual revolution. Who would have thought that the invention of the interest only mortgage would lead to the legalization of prostitution?

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 07:44:03

I fondly remember the days when $20 would by fuel, beer, and a couple of tickets at the yum-yum drive in theater.

Comment by SUGuy
2014-12-24 10:07:39

I remember buying 2 slices of pizza and a coke for 99 cents in 1979 in NYC. Did that when I would get out of my school classes. The Whitestone bridge toll was 50 cents. Add a ride in NYC bus was 10 cents. Alexanders, Korvetts, A&S, Woolworth, Bloomingdales, Key Food, Dan Supreme, King Kullen, A & P, super markets were in business. PanAm building in NYC was an icon.

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Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:30:18

When I was a kid, mother would send me down to the corner store with a dollar, and I’d come back with 5 bags of potatoes, 2 loaves of bread, 3 bottles of milk, a hunk of cheese, a bag of coffee and half a dozen eggs. You can’t do that any more. Too many security cameras.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 06:39:20

Because sometimes even real journalists make mistakes :(

But you never apologize when you’re part of the Media/Academia Race Hustlers Industrial Complex™

And Social Justice™ will be achieved by looting Foot Locker

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 09:58:46

It seems as though North St . Louis County hasn’t yet run out of thugs and robbers.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-24 10:25:11

hasn’t yet run out of thugs and robbers ??

A desperate & angry human being with a gun does not end well…Just ask the families of those fallen policeman in New York…

I have wondered a bit what prompted him to do what he did…Was it Ferguson ?? My thinking is that since he shot his girlfriend that morning he realized that in short order he was going to end up dead or in prison for a very long time…Not wanting to go to prison, he decides to retaliate…

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:45:27

And what put the thought in his head all the protests that advocated killing a cop with no one from the race hustlers denouncing those advocating such an action?

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Comment by Dman
2014-12-24 12:28:45

If you don’t like lawful protests then move to China.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 12:57:23

Sorry Ferguson was not a lawful protest, it was looting and vandalism.

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:32:07

North St . Louis County hasn’t yet run out of thugs and robbers.
The world will never run out of them, much less N. St. Louis County. Utopias are for other people.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 11:33:51

I am just hoping we can avoid a dystopia.

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Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:39:50

I am just hoping we can avoid a dystopia.
Our “Best and Brightest” are working day and night to bring that about, even though they like to amuse themselves in thinking they will bring heaven on earth.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-24 13:51:06

I am just hoping we can avoid a dystopia ??

As am I….

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 07:09:50

LAPD Launch Investigation After Song Mocking Michael Brown Performed At Retired Cop’s Party

Obama needs to have a “beer summit” with those racist pigs, LOLZ

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 07:38:06

“Obama needs to have a “beer summit” with those racist pigs, LOLZ”

How about a LAPD photo-op at the Michael Brown nativity scene?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 08:37:10

“So in short, today the market is euphoric and hitting all time highs because Americans dug into their savings and spent billions on the “Affordable” Care Act. “

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 13:41:17

You missed the stock rally, so get over it. Maybe you can go BORROW some more money from your house that you can’t afford, and pretend that you actually made something of yourself, debtor boy. When the sheriff comes to change the locks, you can tell him how rich you are. Bwahahahahahaaahaaaa!!!

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Comment by scdave
2014-12-24 10:33:27

LAPD Launch Investigation After Song Mocking Michael Brown ??

Nice professional conduct out of our finest eh ? If the guy singing is active, he should be fired but we know that will never happen with the union and all…

Its funny until it isn’t…Go ahead…Get more of them angry with your silly little song…Does not matter if the young man deserved to be shot, you, as a policeman, are sending the message that you enjoyed killing that young man…Stupid….

Comment by Dman
2014-12-24 12:36:19

We are a country whose standards are being dragged down to the level of the southern redneck by Fox News and the Republican Pary. No wonder Obama won.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 07:34:36

Oil is doing much better than it was last week. Only off so far today by slightly over 2% rather than the 4%+ down moves we kept seeing last week.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:53:32

“I believe that oil headed higher because the Fed was printing money, and everyone thought that the Fed would keep printing. But now we have reached a point where the majority of analysts believe that the era of easy money is coming to an end. And while I do not believe that we are about to turn that monetary page, my view is decidedly in the minority. Could it be a coincidence that oil started falling when the mass of analysts came to believe the Fed would finally tighten? “

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:29:18

“Falling oil prices and commodities, falling housing prices just makes your dollars ever more valuable.”


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 08:41:43

And it was up by about 3% yesterday. Morgan Stanley puts the average cost of production at 68 dollars per barrel for shale oil. So how long do you think oil prices can stay at these levels? BTW, some fields have oil production costs well north of $90 per barrel.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 08:50:47

With demand and prices plummeting and overflowing tank farms and cheap production capacity around the globe, oil prices have a long way to fall.

Sounds like all the other commodities including housing.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 11:14:51

With demand and prices plummeting and overflowing tank farms

Lets talk about the overflowing tank farms since we have already talked about the fallacies of your other points.
After today’s storage numbers, including the SPR we have 1,756.4 thousands of barrels in storage. We use about 20 million barrels per day so that is 87.8 days of consumption. Last year at this time we had 1686.4 thousands of barrels or 84.3 days of consumption. So this “glut” consists of adding 3.5 days of consumption, that is hardly a huge change. Drilling is already falling and it takes on average about thirty days to drill a shale oil well. We will see the impact on production of reduced drilling quite soon and very soon we will be seeing less oil in storage.

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Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 14:54:31

And what really matters is plummeting prices.

Now back to your production cost claim. Show us your field and well development estimate so we better understand how you arrive at the inflated price.


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 08:56:22

One example is a company called Oasis Petroleum Inc. which operates in the Bakken field(s), its cost of production is $92 per barrel, the stock symbol OAS has gone from $58 to at last look $16.30. You do not have to shutdown all shale oil production to reach $100 a barrel within the next two years, and at these prices a large reduction in production is a certainty.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:17:44

Of course, I am talking about fundamentals. This market is presently not trading on fundamentals but manipulation. But as countries as diverse as Zimbabwe and the former Soviet Union have taught, prices of goods can fail to reflect their true costs for awhile due to government manipulation. However, soon cold hard market realities manifest themselves. If we follow the example of the Soviet Union, we may not know that the price of gasoline has been set too low until we go to the gas station and there is no gas.

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Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 10:11:07

hey dan ,

have you ever been to ruidoso, looks south of you a few hours. whats it like down there.

Drinkn and brewskis over the holidays?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:21:22

It is a great place in the mountains. Lots of bars. I like to stay at the Inn of the Mountain Gods when I am there. It is a native American casino/hotel. But there are places more in town if you want to bar hop and avoid driving.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:36:30

The only thing that sucks about Ruidoso is the drive from ABQ. After Socorro, there is nothing. The drive will take you close to where they dropped the first nuclear weapon and it probably improved the scenery, it is flat and ugly until you reach the mountain range.

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:45:21

The drive will take you close to where they dropped the first nuclear weapon and it probably improved the scenery
I visited the Trinity Site in July 2005 when WSMR had a special open house for the 60th anniversary of the first test. They usually don’t have open houses in the summer due to the heat, but they made an exception for that anniversary. About 3000 people showed up, in the middle of nowhere. They had historic displays, food stands, plenty of ice water & some shade. Somebody got hauled off in an ambulance for heat related illness, but I found the weather fine. They will probably repeat the event this coming July for the 70th anniversary. It’s worth at least one visit.

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:47:48

Wear hiking boots with lugged soles and you will probably track some globules of trinitite back to your car. They cleaned up the bulk of the radioactive glass, but small pieces are still everywhere on the site.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 09:27:41

What we “need” to get oil back up to $100 is yet another gigantic credit expansion to build houses for another couple of billion people that are not yet alive, like China did over the past few years. Who’s on deck?

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:34:40

Why the manipulation cannot last long:

HOUSTON, Dec 23 (Reuters) - Texas, the top oil-producing U.S. state, issued roughly half as many drilling permits in November as in October, as oil and gas producers scaled back with the steep decline in crude prices since summer. The Texas Railroad Commission, the state’s industry regulator, said on Tuesday that new permits for oil wells fell 57 percent to 376, while those for new oil and gas wells retreated 46 percent to 977. Overall, the state issued 1,508 original drilling permits for all types of wells in November, compared with 3,046 in October. U.S. crude futures prices closed on Tuesday at $57.12, up more than $2 a barrel after data showing the fastest U.S. economic growth in 11 years boosted expectations that crude demand would rise. However, Tuesday’s settlement was down 47 percent from $107.95 in late June. Lower oil prices took time to translate into fewer permits. From August to September, new oil only and oil and gas permits rose by 32 percent and 25 percent, respectively. But from September to October, both types fell slightly. New oil-only permits declined 5.2 percent and oil and gas 1.1 percent, according to railroad commission data. The decline speeded up last month, the data showed. Analysts had expected new drilling permits to fall in tandem with the plunge in oil prices as producers halt marginal operations and focus on those with the best returns. Producers have been scaling back. Continental Resources Inc said on Monday it would cut spending 40 percent, trim drilling rigs by a third and show less growth in 2015 crude output than it had estimated. However, analysts still expect output to grow, though less than projected before oil prices sank, as productivity of new wells rises. The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in early December that total U.S. production reached an average of 9 million barrels per day in November, and the agency expects output to average 9.3 million bpd next year - about 100,000 bpd less than the EIA projected last month. - See more at:

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:42:01
Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 09:43:54

T boone pickens says demand has caused the lower oil prices.

I dont think they will last long do you?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 11:58:33

Forest: Global building mania faltering and falling down. There never was a greater driver of energy demand, commodity demand and credit demand.

Trees: Obama. Putin. Other media darlings and barking dogs.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 13:45:12

“You do not have to shutdown all shale oil production to reach $100 a barrel within the next two years…”

Is that what you tell the people who bought at $105 because you said it was going to $150? Now they’ve only got another few years to wait to hopefully not lost a dollar? LMFAO you MORON!!!

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 13:54:49

I said this year when it was $105 that it was imminently going to $150? Please show me that!! I could not sell call options on my drilling stocks fast enough in July.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 14:04:22

Unlike some on this board, I am not a broken clock, I have suggested writing calls on the metals and buying the metals. I have even suggested good times to buy a house late 2010-early 2011 and at other times that the appreciation potential had passed, just a few months ago before I stopped posting, I told whac that I understood why people like him were not buying then, but he had missed his buying opportunity earlier. Actually in 2006 I talked my stock broker friend not to buy in San Diego, but when she asked me in 2010 whether she should buy a rental property in San Diego, I said it could go either way. She bought and her investment has done well. When the facts change my opinion changes, with some on this board when the facts change, they just ignore them.

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 14:34:07

I could not sell call options on my drilling stocks fast enough in July.

Why write covered calls when you could lose less money by selling the stocks themselves?

Answer: you didn’t expect this decline.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 14:44:13

Because I thought there might be a decline but it depended on production in Libya which was unknowable. I am not saying that I saw the present manipulation. I am glad I did not sell outright because my major holding in the drilling sector was and is BHI and the options I sold were for January 2016 with a big fat premium. I expect to get to keep most of that money and in the end get the same price the stock was at in July since by midyear when the HAL merger becomes final, oil will have recovered enough to make the merger quite profitable for me.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 15:00:18

I have written another post that will appear soon but I will add to that one since it is posting slow. You are right that if I was 100% sure, oil would fall, I would have sold out the shares. But few things reach 100% certainty in life. I am 100% sure that oil will recover to $70 soon since below that we lose too much production. From $70 to $100, I am certain enough to make the prediction with confidence but it is not at a 100% certainty level.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 17:08:06

Clue less.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 11:28:43

Now down 3% with no end to price declines in sight.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 13:30:31

do you get excited seeing people lose their good energy jobs?

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 14:38:01

do you get excited seeing people lose their good energy jobs?

I get excited when I see equilibrium return to a market that has been seriously distorted by the actions of government and the Federal Reserve.

Markets achieving their natural equilibrium is positively bullish; it results in the best outcome for the largest number of people.

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 13:49:12

Ended down about $1.50 which did not even wipe out yesterday’s gain, since it is about $15 dollars less than the price of production it does not make much of a difference but:

(Reuters) - Oil rose by more than $2 a barrel on Tuesday, rallying for a second time in three days, after data showing the fastest rate of U.S. economic growth in 11 years bolstered expectations for crude demand.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-24 15:45:32

$1.98 per gallon in my Phoenix nabe today. Last time I remembered gas being uner $2 was when I lived in New Jersey in 2002.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 16:23:51

$2.08 in Newark today.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 18:42:47

I remember back in 2001 I was filling up my old gas hog and $1.67 seemed brutal. In today’s dollars, that’s only $2.23.

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-24 18:46:33

$1.92 yesterday in Santa Fe. In the tourist/richie area.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 07:43:50

Good morning bear pit

Any guesses when and how much the first rate hike will be when it finally comes some day?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 08:28:26

The news will seem to be after the fact debt junky. When systemic risk of default swells, credit lines are cut regardless of the interbank rate. Welcome to falling prices.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 08:54:01

cheer up renter, the dow is up .

Comment by azdude
Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 08:28:05

1. Pass laws that make your state a “closed shop” in which employees are forced to join a union and pay union dues AS A CONDITION OF EMPLOYMENT.

2. Have the state take out union dues BEFORE the employee ever sees his paycheck.

3. Become the top money political campaign donors OF ALL TIME.

4. Give your money 99-1 to DEMOCRATS

5. Bankrupt your state with insane pensions, benefits and work rules in exchange for keeping DEMOCRATS in power.

6. Say “a promise is a promise” and it “is for the children”

For outrageous government scam of the year, it’s hard to compete with the news of the supersized public-employee pensions in California. If you haven’t already heard: In 2013, an assistant fire chief in Southern California collected a $983,319 pension last year. A police captain in Los Angeles received nearly $753,861

By some estimates, the unfunded pension liabilities in California have eclipsed $750 billion, which means that in a few years, residents will be paying their already-highest in the nation income and sales taxes not for roads, bridges, schools and public safety but for retired employees living like Daddy Warbucks.

Comment by X-GSfixr
2014-12-24 09:05:44

Here, in “Right to Work” state, the bootstrappers in our shop refused to be union members.

That didn’t keep them from piggy-backing on to union-negotiated pay raises and benefits.

A real, stand-up, anti-union guy would stand on principle, and refuse to accept any raises/benefits negotiated by the union.

Number of anti-union guys who refused union negotiated pay/benefit packages over the 20 years that I worked at this shop? ZERO……..NADA

Something for nothing…….such a deal.

Comment by Dman
2014-12-24 12:48:24

There should be a name for guys like that, something equivilant to scab. P*ssy just doesn’t do them justice.

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Comment by X-GSfixr
2014-12-24 09:50:12

So much for “Holiday Cheer”…….

Thought I might get thru 2014 without having one of my vehicles broken into. No such luck. Idiots were out in force over the weekend (according to the cop who took my report). They tried to pry out the passenger side door glass in my Challenger; glass shattered, damaged the A-pillar and window seal. $1000+ damage.

What did they get? A 10 year old digital camera that was worth maybe $30 bucks. Didn’t even bother grabbing the couple of bucks worth of change in the cupholder.

Makes you wonder why you even own anything worth owning, when it is ten times easier to just steal it than actually working for it. Might as well leave the car unlocked.

Some say “There isn’t a death penalty for stealing” Yeah, but from my point of view, that seems to be the only penalty for stealing that seems to be enforced. In my case, I can only dream that the shattering glass threw some glass fragments in their eyes.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 09:57:39

yeah I was worried about this doing the xmas shopping. I made a few trips home to drop stuff off so it wouldn’t build up in the car and look appealing.

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Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 11:07:26

Back in the day before Giuliani in NYC…

People left their car doors unlocked with a note on the window that said “nothing worth stealing in this car”

SNL had a skit of a “luxury car” ad of a car that looked like beat up rust bucket of a caddy but the inside was premo luxury…

Welcome to the days of the free sh*t army in power…

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Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-24 14:50:04

Might as well leave the car unlocked.

That’s my approach. It get rifled through a few times a year, but with nothing of value in it, nothing is ever gone that I miss.

On the bright side, they never break a window or bend anything! (knock wood)

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 20:23:35

I’d rather leave it locked with nothing in view. It’s proven most thieves just check doors and enter the unlocked vehicles. I don’t like welcoming them in.

Comment by scdave
2014-12-24 10:40:44

Give your money 99-1 to DEMOCRATS ??

Local democrats that give the contracts is the correct statement 2-fruit…Senators, congressman, goveners and presidents they are likely lock step republicans the two-faced hypocrites that they be…

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 11:28:26

You are 100% wrong.

DO NOT LET FACTS get in the way of your fantasy world.

Unions are the TOP 14 out of 17 all time money political contributors and give nearly 100% of their money to democrats (especially public unions) and nearly nothing to republicans.

Heavy Hitters: Top All-Time Donors, 1989-2014

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Comment by Dman
2014-12-24 12:53:49

Boy, it’s amazing what piddly ass things will distract people. That’s just what our Wall Street overlords want.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 14:27:34

We desperately NEED MORE UNIONS.

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 08:27:14

“Background check fails as ex-con lands HUD job, embezzles $800,000″

By Jim McElhatton - The Washington Times - Tuesday, December 23, 2014

Brian Thompson had a criminal record spanning more than two decades, but that didn’t stop him from getting an office job at the Department of Housing and Urban Development earning nearly $90,000 per year.

His extensive criminal history only came to light in recent days after federal prosecutors outlined convictions and charges of armed robbery, theft and larceny against Thompson, who now faces federal prison time for embezzling more than $800,000 from HUD during his short stint as a federal worker.

Now HUD officials are scrambling to figure out how he landed his job, which he was allowed to resign nearly two months after his embezzlement conviction.

“We are reviewing the portion of the Personal Identity Verification (PIV) process that HUD controls to understand why there were no background flags,” agency spokesman Jereon M. Brown wrote in an email Tuesday. “Something should have definitely come up during the background check.”

The U.S. attorney’s office in Washington filed a sentencing memo in Thompson’s case this week outlining theft and larceny arrests and convictions spanning from 1984 to 2007. He also had an armed robbery conviction in 1980 that resulted in probation; a 1998 misdemeanor conviction for check deception; a felony 2008 conviction for receiving stolen property; and probation violation reports filed in 1999, 2000 and 2001, according to prosecutors.

Yet HUD hired him as a GS-13 loan guarantee specialist within the Office of Public and Indian Housing at HUD on May 23, 2011.

He resigned on Nov. 20, which was nearly two months after he pleaded guilty to wire fraud in federal court in Washington. The U.S. attorney, Ron Machen, issued a press release at the time calling Thompson “a crooked HUD employee” who “diverted the proceeds of real estate sales from the U.S. Treasury to his own pockets through lies and trickery.”

While the press release referred to Thompson as a former federal employee, he wouldn’t resign for weeks, though Mr. Brown said in a statement Tuesday that Thompson was suspended without pay prior to his resignation.

An attorney for Thompson said neither he nor his client would comment when reached by The Washington Times.

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 08:40:32

Don’t worry - the same government will run health care without issues…

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 16:24:01

“Yet HUD hired him as a GS-13 loan guarantee specialist…”

FWIW, a GS-13 is way up there in the federal pay schemes. Insane!

Comment by reedalberger
2014-12-24 08:36:45

How can the progressive machine be steadfastly against the police but at the same time use the police as the enforcement arm of their unpopular coercive communist policies?

Things that make you go hmmm.


Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 11:33:35

Because they are bought off Useful idiots.

The police and fireman’s union give nearly 100% of their piltical support and money ONLY to democrat candidates and fiercely defend the “closed shop” union rules..

They do have insane pensions to protect…

Comment by spook
2014-12-24 08:56:29

During slavery in the U.S did the slave market ever get like the housing market?

Could you get a slave loan like you get a car loan?

Was there ever a slavery bubble?

If you bought a slave with a loan and it died, did you still have to pay the loan off?

Could you buy a bunch of slaves, flip them, buy more, flip them…?

What about buy a slave with terminal cancer for cheap, and selling him for full price to some unsuspecting/unsophisticated “investor?”

Seems like an industry that would have been ripe for fraud, shenanigans and trickery?

Where are the court records for such events?

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 09:26:53

Where are the court records for such events?
I suspect some of the resulting interpersonal conflicts were settled person-to-person, so that the courts were not involved. It was the deep South after all.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:29:10

Why the obsession with slavery? Many of my ancestors were forced from Quebec (Arcadia) to Louisiana. Given the cold winters in Quebec and the fun they are having as Cajuns, their descendents are probably quiet happy about that rather cruel and traumatic move where a high percentage of people died from disease and other causes. Where in sub-Sahara Africa would you rather live than the U.S? If there is no place, than the institution of slavery was your ticket to a far better life and the ticket was paid for by your ancestors and not you.

Comment by butters
2014-12-24 09:50:42

Such an ignorance and arrogance in one post….I’m speechless.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:58:18

Blacks are far better off living in the US than they would have been if their ancestors had not been enslaved, usually by other Africans and forced over here. It is a fact, and dismissing it as ignorance and arrogance does not change that, because facts are stubborn things.

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Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 10:27:52

“Trust me, it’s for your own good.”

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:39:10

No one in America lived under slavery, it is as simple as that. So while your point maybe true for the actual slaves it does not apply to spook or anyone else.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:04:51

Such an ignorance and arrogance in one post….I’m speechless

Sorry, all out of white guilt on this one. It is just like Israel trying to avoid discussing today’s issues by reminding people of the holocaust, after a while you have to live in today’s world.

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Comment by aNYCdj
2014-12-24 11:24:54
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 11:58:42

Acadia….. blaireau.

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 14:56:55

Wouldn’t an Arcadian be a Carny (carnival worker)? If you ever called an actual Coonass an Arcadian, I think you’d be schooled rather abruptly.

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Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 11:38:20

Hard to print money when you are on a gold standard to force these bubbles. hard - but not impossible.

However, you can import lots of cheap labor to to do the dangerous work you would not let a slave do. A slave is an expensive asset. A dead immigrant can be replaced with the next ship.

There is a reason why 8,000 Irish died while building the New Orleans Canal while not one slave died…

Comment by Puggs
2014-12-24 15:31:36

The borrower is slave to the lender.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 15:45:42

Unless they borrow a whole lot and then the lender can be slave to the borrower.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 09:29:54

45k for a truck plus tax , license and insurance. so 50k + gets you into a ride, that makes a lot of sense.

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 16:33:39

FWIW, I spent my youthful days under the hood of hot-rod cars, and street racing in the evening. Loved every minute of it. Today I fugg’n hate cars! I can’t believe what they ask for them, and the peeps keep signing on the line. Darned things cost as much as a house twenty years ago.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:06:55

A little surprising but I cannot blame them:

( A report by the World Health Organization on the rate of alcohol consumption among countries noted that Russians and Germans are ranked less than a lot of other Muslim nationalities, such as Africans and Iranians, in consuming alcohol.

The report pointed out that Tunisians, for example, consumes almost twice as much as the German, and the citizen of Chad consumes at a rate of about 34 liters per year, while a German’s rate of consumption does not exceed 14.7 liters per year, as well as an Iranian 24.8 liters, while a Russian consumes an average of 22.3 liters.

As for Arab countries, according to the latest report from the World Health Organization, the ranking comes as follows: Tunisia and the United Arab Emirates come first among Arab countries in the rates of their consumption of alcohol.

Sudan comes third at a rate of 24.1 liters, Lebanon comes forth at a rate of 23.9 liters and then followed by fifth, Qatar at a rate of 22.7 liters. Bahrain is ranked sixth at a rate of 21.2 liters and Morocco is ranked seventh at a rate of 17.10, eighth is Syria at a rate of 16.3 liters, ninth is Oman at a rate of 15.5 liters, tenth is Jordan at a rate of 15.2 liters, eleventh is Algeria at a rate of 10.9 liters, and 12th is Iraq at a rate of 9.1 liters.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 10:16:12

I consume 24 oz / night of good beer. any good craft out there?

I wonder how walmart sales are this holiday season? I haven’t bought anything there for the holidays. they have a PR problem.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:24:17

Lots of them, like everywhere it depends on what you like.

Comment by oxide
2014-12-24 10:41:49

And here I thought that the Arab Spring was started out of riots due to high food prices. Who’s got the money to buy 34 liters of alcohol? And is that wine, beer, or Everclear?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 11:31:15

It is the taxes on alcohol that makes it expensive. I imagine they tax it much less. Cheers and have a Merry Christmas.

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:53:18

Who’s got the money to buy 34 liters of alcohol?
The wrong kind of Muslim, apparently, unless they are buying it to pour it down the drain to prevent the corruption of public morality.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 15:44:19

BTW, they measure it by alcohol content, so one beer would be about one ounce of alcohol.

Comment by Oddfellow
2014-12-24 18:26:18

“Who’s got the money to buy 34 liters of alcohol?”

They don’t. That report is absolute bollocks.

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-24 15:48:01

My ex from Kuwait tells me the guys in Kuwait go to Bahrain for the alcoholic drinks.

Comment by rms
2014-12-24 16:37:08

Saudi Arabia has the highest per capita incidence of diabetes on the planet.

Comment by spook
2014-12-24 10:14:29

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 09:29:10
Why the obsession with slavery?


Is that what you call it when a black person is curious about the economics of slavery?

What else in all your “whiteness” have you decided a black person can’t be curious about?

I just think its very interesting and am fascinated by some of the implications, ironies, paradoxes, contradictions… aren’t you?

For example; we are all taught about the 1st African slaves arriving in Jamestown in 1619, but there is evidence of larger geopolitical dynamics and more players driving the process:

“The Africans who arrived in Jamestown in 1619 did so by chance. In Angola more than 300 of them had been packed aboard the San Juan Bautista, bound for Mexico. As the Spanish slaver entered the Gulf of Mexico, two English privateers, the White Lion and the Treasurer, set upon it. The pirates hoped they’d corralled a treasure ship. Discovering only human cargo, they took as many slaves as they could carry. The Earl of Warwick, a British aristocrat, owned the Treasurer, and the governor of Jamestown was the Earl’s man, so the privateers carried their booty to the Virginia coast. There they sold about 30 slaves, roughly split between males and females, to five or six plantation owners.”

I had to look up the term “Privateer”; its like being a pirate but you have a license from the state to steal from and for certain people.

How cool is that?

The “protesters” in Ferguson should be so lucky.

Here is the source

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 10:32:31

Hey I am all for people learning about history. Just tired of people trying to use either slavery or the holocaust as an excuse for today’s actions by people. If you really study slavery, you will the find that the white slave traders did very little enslaving, they picked up slaves from either Muslim Arabs or from other black tribes that had enslaved other tribes. The people were slaves already, certainly the trade encouraged such enslavement but did not initiate the practice.

BTW, I suggest you watch “Black Sails” if this period interests you, it is a well done series although takes some historical license. “I had to look up the term “Privateer”; its like being a pirate but you have a license from the state to steal from and for certain people.”

Comment by 2banana
2014-12-24 11:45:44

Actually - the first slaves in the “Americas” were native tribes taking each as slaves for thousands of years. The Mayans and Aztecs took it one step further with mass human sacrifices of their slaves.

Ironically, the ONLY country in the HISTORY of the world to fight a brutal civil war (costing nearly 1 million dead) over the freeing of slaves was the United States of America located in the same Americas…

Rather ironic…

Slavery still exists in the world today. Mostly in muslim countries. ISIS actually has laws and regulations on how to treat slaves in their conquered lands. Just following their allah’s rules.

A good topic of discussion but there is no money/votes in it for obama/sharpton/jackson

Comment by tresho
2014-12-24 11:51:46

The pirates hoped they’d corralled a treasure ship. Discovering only human cargo, they took as many slaves as they could carry.
And the ones they couldn’t carry?

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 16:47:40

They remained aboard the Bautista and were delivered to Mexico as originally planned.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 10:55:41

oil is the MOABO! this is a slam dunk trade guys.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 11:27:17

Yes. Oil production is already falling in the US far earlier than anyone had imagined. The IEA was actually expecting oil production in the U.S. to increase one million barrels a day in the U.S. during 2015 just a month ago.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 11:50:26

With consumption and prices falling, why keep producing?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 14:13:21

“All the MSM headlines about consumer confidence and comfort and all that, it doesn’t square with the 43 million US citizens condemned to living on food stamps. I remember Halloween spending (I know, that’s Q4) was down an atrocious -11%, but the Q3 GDP print was +5%? Why would anyone volunteer to believe that? Do they all feel so bad any sliver of ‘good news’ helps? Are we really that desperate?”

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Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 14:15:10

“In an unusually frank interview, Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister, tore up OPEC’s traditional strategy of keeping prices high by limiting oil output and replaced it with a new policy of defending the cartel’s market share at all costs. “It is not in the interest of OPEC producers to cut their production, whatever the price is,” he told the Middle East Economic Survey. “Whether it goes down to $20, $40, $50, $60, it is irrelevant.” He said the world may never see $100 a barrel oil again.The comments, from a man who is often described as the most influential figure in the energy industry, marked the first time that Mr Naimi has explained the strategy shift in detail. They represent a “fundamental change” in OPEC policy that is more far-reaching than any seen since the 1970s, said Jamie Webster, oil analyst at IHS Energy. “We have entered a scary time for the oil market and for the next several years we are going to be dealing with a lot of volatility,” he said. “Just about everything will be touched by this.”

Comment by measton
2014-12-24 14:59:32

My guess is Saudi’s will drive down prices taking a loss, but then buy up foreign oil assets at some point through hedge funds and drive the price back up. Probably after Syria falls and Russia says mercy. I’m sure goldman sach’s has pointed out how easy it would be for the elites of that country to go long airlines and short oil then drive down the price of oil and buy up foreign oil holdings.

If this is their strategy to make up the losses on the falling oil prices, wouldn’t Ali say something like this?

The increased US production has been almost exactly mirrored by falling production in the North Sea. I’m not sure the change in oil production in Canada and mexico can explain prices.

The only fly in the ointment on my tinfoil hat theory

Decreasing demand may be playing a roll .
US gas consumption is down 6% vs 2007. Decreased economic activity as suggested by the decline in shipping rates supports this theory.

I’ve purchased some oil and gas and decreased treasuries and cash but certainly not all in.

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Comment by oxide
2014-12-24 16:27:57

Hey, glad to see you back! You were right… these big boyz are running their own insider trading ring. Only, instead of trading on inside information, they plan what they want to trade and then manipulate the information which points toward their goals. Not what I would call a “free market…”

Comment by Blue Skye
2014-12-24 17:05:44

“If this is their strategy…”

Not being in debt, the Saudis likely have a mentality that practically no one else can fathom. They might just see the credit expansion building boom all over the world and the resource mania that rode in on it as something of an insanity.

While the rest of us were borrowing up to our eyeballs speculating on building ghost towns and the commodities that go with it, they’ve built the largest petroleum products chemical plant in the world, with cash. You don’t have to wonder what their strategy is, it is in plain sight.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 13:25:39

Everyone Must Check In

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-12-24 14:49:25

Yeah, I sent an e-card instead. Love it or lump it, dirty copper.

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 17:11:42

Region IV

Comment by Prime_Is_Contained
2014-12-25 00:46:04

Region X; good day.

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 14:24:41

“Stated differently, ZIRP has enabled banks to carry $10 trillion of deposits at negative real interest rates. During the 72 month since ZIRP was officially embraced in December 2008, the CPI has risen by 12% (1.9% per annum). That compares to an average return on six months CDs over the same period of 0.4%. Call that a negative 1.5% real rate on the banks cost of funds.”

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 14:01:49

“Remember when nobody wanted to touch U.S. subprime-mortgage debt? That’s just a distant memory as it delivers some of the bond market’s best returns.
The securities that were created in the years before the financial crisis in 2008, which marked the last time they were issued, have gained almost 12 percent this year, or six times more than junk-rated corporate debt, according to Barclays Plc. After contributing to the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., bonds tied to the riskiest home loans have returned 75 percent since 2010, topping speculative-grade corporate debt for three straight years.”


Comment by rms
2014-12-25 05:55:59

“The securities that were created in the years before the financial crisis in 2008, which marked the last time they were issued, have gained almost 12 percent this year, or six times more than junk-rated corporate debt, according to Barclays Plc.”

If you were a senator think of the money you could make buying low value debt, “federally guarantee it”, and selling it again?

Comment by Puggs
2014-12-24 14:14:33

Joyous Noel Debt/Credit/JunkBond Donkeys!!!

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 14:21:50

“Savers are figuratively on their hands and knees and rooting around in bushes and between sofa seats for loose change on which to sustain themselves.”

Comment by Puggs
2014-12-24 15:29:40

More like trying to find places where to hide it all.

“When you have no debt the hardest part is figuring out what to do with all that cash”

No kiddin’

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 16:08:10

“Buying stocks now: The world’s easiest trade?”

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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 14:21:28

Must be a real bi#ch to have to pay the country invading you. But hey you should know more than to trust “if you like your insurance you can keep your insurance”, should have known Obama would not protect you against Putin when the chips were down:

Comment by "Auntie Fed, why won't you love ME?"
2014-12-24 14:46:38

Happy Christmas Eve to everyone but Slithers!

/ \
/ \


Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 14:48:42

Even to me? Happy Christmas to you.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 15:41:12

White Christmas or not, warmists gonna warm

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 15:48:39

Al Gore and friends said by now Great Britain would not know snow. Whoops.

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Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2014-12-24 16:24:21

You made up with Sammy?

Comment by Bill, just south of Irvine
2014-12-24 19:53:37

Merry Holidays. Morning lows in Phoenix in the 30s. In Chandler the low 30s. Looks like this year is going to be a cool winter unlike last year.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 15:50:49

Is is safe to tippy toe back into stocks?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 16:02:12

Which stocks? If you mean oil stocks you should back the truck up. For most stocks, if you want to buy near their highs, it would be a good time.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 16:17:28

do you think the retail investor will get hosed again?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 16:27:53


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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 16:34:43

By late January it will be clear that the economic data has been massaged to the point of a “happy ending” to increase consumer confidence during the Christmas buying season. Companies will be reporting earnings and the damaged caused by spiking the dollar to hurt oil prices will become apparent. Add, in the layoffs in the oil patch and other industries related to the oil boom and it will not be a pretty sight. Obama tried to make war on Putin and the collateral damage will be the U.S. economy.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 17:01:51

how do you think the dollar was spiked?

Comment by Albuquerquedan
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2014-12-24 16:29:45

Why not we have opened our “back door” to China for years:

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 17:20:23

It’s not about Black Friday, Flat screens and this year’s retail numbers?

Charlie Brown: Isn’t there anyone who knows what Christmas is all about?

Linus: Sure, Charlie Brown, I can tell you what Christmas is all about.

[moves toward the center of the stage]

Linus: Lights, please.

[a spotlight shines on Linus]

Linus: “And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night. And lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid. And the angel said unto them, ‘Fear not: for behold, I bring unto you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people. For unto you is born this day in the City of David a Savior, which is Christ the Lord. And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.’ And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host, praising God, and saying, ‘Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.’”

[Linus picks up his blanket and walks back towards Charlie Brown]

Linus: That’s what Christmas is all about, Charlie Brown.

Comment by real journalists
2014-12-24 17:25:03

Happy Jesus birthday Region VIII

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 18:01:43

Merry Christmas to all the FEMA Regions

Hark! The Herald Angels Sing - Charlie Brown Christmas …

Barry I. Grauman
3 days ago

The chorus was made up of choral members from St. Paul’s Episcopal Church in San Rafael, California.

3 weeks ago

Hark the Herald angels sing
Glory to the newborn king
Peace on earth and mercy mild
God and sinners reconciled
Joyful, all ye nations rise
Join the triumph of the skies
With the angelic host proclaim
Christ is born in Bethlehem
Hark! The herald angels sing
Glory to the newborn King

Merry Christmas 2014! - 316k -

Comment by aNYCdj
2014-12-24 18:21:38

This is the biggest Jewish singles night in NYC…….

a Christmas song….

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Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 19:06:58

In this part of Region IV the Chinese restaurants are open Christmas night and do a booming business from Jewish customers.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2014-12-24 19:43:07

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 19:06:58

In this part of Region IV the Chinese restaurants are open Christmas night and do a booming business from Jewish customers.

I don’t think they were Jewish, but that scene is one of the funniest in “A Christmas Story”.

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2014-12-24 19:35:05

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 17:20:23

Charlie Brown: Isn’t there anyone who knows what Christmas is all about?

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 17:23:45

“Here’s the risk in carry trades: if the currency you borrowed the money in strengthens and the currency you’re receiving the interest payments in weakens, the deal sours. The rise and fall in currencies can erase the profits of the carry trade.”

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 17:53:49

A bubblin’ crude…. everywhere.

Nothing like massive supplies and sinking demand to get prices a rollin’…… downhill.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 18:24:55

let me guess, bearish on everything for 2015?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 18:45:44

Pick yourself up off the floor and cheer up Poet! Falling prices of all items is positively bullish and good for the economy! :)

Comment by phony scandals
2014-12-24 18:41:58

I say skip the Yule Log (TV program) throw on some Christmas tunes and pop the U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time up on the screen.

Yule Log (TV program)
From Wikipedia

The Yule Log is a television program which is broadcast traditionally on Christmas Eve or Christmas morning (except for the 1990s and the year 2000 when the program was not broadcast), originally by New York City television station WPIX but now by many other Tribune Company-owned television stations, including WGN America, and by Antenna TV starting in 2011. A radio simulcast of the musical portion was broadcast by associated station WPIX-FM (now WFAN-FM) until 1988.

The program, which has been two to four hours in duration, is a film loop of a yule log burning in a fireplace, with a traditional soundtrack of classic Christmas music playing in the background. It is broadcast without commercial interruption.

U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time - 106k -

Comment by Tarara Boomdea
2014-12-24 19:53:07
Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 20:06:44

Your debt crater is getting deeper.

Comment by azdude
2014-12-24 20:53:24

Does it really matter if its just fiat? We deserve a do over after all right?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2014-12-24 22:33:24

Send me all of your fiats.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-24 23:57:23

Is it my imagination, or are oil prices still sliding?

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-25 00:00:29

Oil Markets
Oil Prices Slide on Surge in Supplies
U.S. Crude Supplies Unexpectedly Rise, Adding to Glut of Oil
By Timothy Puko
Updated Dec. 24, 2014 2:43 p.m. ET

Oil futures retreated Wednesday and auto fuels closed at multiyear lows after data showed an unexpected surge in U.S. crude supplies.

Oil producers added 7.3 million barrels in the week ended Dec. 19, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said Wednesday. The supply surge adds even more to a growing glut of oil that has already sparked an international showdown for market share and a nearly 50% decline in futures since June.

“The market is very fragile and…this is not going to help sentiment in the least,” said Andrew Lebow, a broker at investment bank Jefferies.

Analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a drop of 1.9 million barrels. The unexpected addition comes in contrast to how supplies usually drop at the end of the year when the industry tries to clear stockpiles to help its tax accounting, analysts said. Traders sold on the news.

Light, sweet crude for February delivery settled down $1.28, or 2.2%, to $55.84 a barrel on The New York Mercantile Exchange. The February contract for Brent crude, the global benchmark, recently traded down $1.54, or 2.5%, to $60.24 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures exchange.

January reformulated gasoline blendstock, or RBOB, hit its lowest settlement price since April 30, 2009. It lost 5.8 cents, or 3.7%, to close at $1.5127 a gallon. Gasoline stockpiles rose by 4.1 million barrels—10 times more than expected–to 226.1 million barrels, the EIA said in its weekly report.

January diesel hit its lowest settlement price since July 6, 2010. It lost 6.71 cents, or 3.4%, to close at $1.9236 a gallon. Distillate stocks, which include heating oil and diesel fuel, added 2.3 million barrels—more than double expectations–to 123.8 million barrels.

For some analysts the buildup of products shows that low prices aren’t triggering enough consumer demand to end the glut anytime soon.

“If the U.S. gasoline market can’t pull us higher … then it reinforces the idea that we are still in a petroleum bear market,” said Tim Evans, analyst at Citi Futures Perspective in New York.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-25 00:03:10

Oil slides, Brent tests $60 as data shows glut building
By Barani Krishnan
NEW YORK Wed Dec 24, 2014 2:10pm EST
A customer waits as an employee of state-owned Pertamina refuels his car at its petrol station in Jakarta, December 17, 2014. REUTERS/Pius Erlangga

(Reuters) - Global oil markets fell again on Wednesday in holiday-thin trade, extending more than a week of see-saw volatility as traders jousted over whether a growing supply glut had been fully priced in.

Oil whipped lower early in the day and tested new lows after U.S. data showed crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 7.3 million barrels last week to their highest December level on record. Analysts had expected a seasonal draw.

“It’s a Christmas flood of oil at a time when refiners and producers usually are letting inventories get lower for end-of-year tax reasons,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group in Chicago. “But with this flood of supply there’s no place to put it.”

U.S. crude’s front-month contract fell $1.28 to settle at $55.84 a barrel at 1:30 p.m. EST (1730 GMT), when the New York Mercantile Exchange shut early for the Christmas holiday. Around 180,000 contracts were traded, about half the recent norm.

Front-month Brent fell $1.45 to $60.24 a barrel after a session low of $59.37. Brent has fluctuated wildly on either side of $60 a barrel for the past seven days, but has yet to break definitively below that psychological level.

Oil prices slid throughout the day, reversing all the previous day’s gains that were triggered by data showing the U.S. economy had grown 5 percent in the third quarter, the fastest pace since 2003 and much faster than the 3.9 percent annual rate previously reported by the Commerce Department.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2014-12-25 00:04:53

Analysis & Opinion | Anatole Kaletsky
The reason oil could drop as low as $20 per barrel
By Anatole Kaletsky
December 19, 2014
An oil pump jack pumps oil in a field near Calgary

How low can it go — and how long will it last? The 50 percent slump in oil prices raises both those questions and while nobody can confidently answer the first question (I will try to in a moment), the second is pretty easy.

Low oil prices will last long enough for one of two events to happen. The first possibility, the one most traders and analysts seem to expect, is that Saudi Arabia will re-establish OPEC’s monopoly power once it achieves the true geopolitical or economic objectives that spurred it to trigger the slump. The second possibility, one I wrote about two weeks ago, is that the global oil market will move toward normal competitive conditions in which prices are set by the marginal production costs, rather than Saudi or OPEC monopoly power. This may seem like a far-fetched scenario, but it is more or less how the oil market worked for two decades from 1986 to 2004.

Whichever outcome finally puts a floor under prices, we can be confident that the process will take a long time to unfold. It is inconceivable that just a few months of falling prices will be enough time for the Saudis to either break the Iranian-Russian axis or reverse the growth of shale oil production in the United States. It is equally inconceivable that the oil market could quickly transition from OPEC domination to a normal competitive one. The many bullish oil investors who still expect prices to rebound quickly to their pre-slump trading range are likely to be disappointed. The best that oil bulls can hope for is that a new, and substantially lower, trading range may be established as the multi-year battles over Middle East dominance and oil-market share play out.

The key question is whether the present price of around $55 will prove closer to the floor or the ceiling of this new range. The history of inflation-adjusted oil prices, deflated by the U.S. Consumer Price Index, offers some intriguing hints. The 40 years since OPEC first flexed its muscles in 1974 can be divided into three distinct periods. From 1974 to 1985, West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, fluctuated between $48 and $120 in today’s money. From 1986 to 2004, the price ranged from $21 to $48 (apart from two brief aberrations during the 1998 Russian crisis and the 1991 war in Iraq). And from 2005 until this year, oil has again traded in its 1974 to 1985 range of roughly $50 to $120, apart from two very brief spikes in the 2008-09 financial crisis.

What makes these three periods significant is that the trading range of the past 10 years was very similar to the 1974-85 first decade of OPEC domination, but the 19 years from 1986 to 2004 represented a totally different regime. It seems plausible that the difference between these two regimes can be explained by the breakdown of OPEC power in 1985 and the shift from monopolistic to competitive pricing for the next 20 years, followed by the restoration of monopoly pricing in 2005 as OPEC took advantage of surging Chinese demand.

In view of this history, the demarcation line between the monopolistic and competitive regimes at a little below $50 a barrel seems a reasonable estimate of where one boundary of the new long-term trading range might end up. But will $50 be a floor or a ceiling for the oil price in the years ahead?

There are several reasons to expect a new trading range as low as $20 to $50, as in the period from 1986 to 2004. Technological and environmental pressures are reducing long-term oil demand and threatening to turn much of the high-cost oil outside the Middle East into a “stranded asset” similar to the earth’s vast unwanted coal reserves. Additional pressures for low oil prices in the long term include the possible lifting of sanctions on Iran and Russia and the ending of civil wars in Iraq and Libya, which between them would release additional oil reserves bigger than Saudi Arabia’s on to the world markets.

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