Bits Bucket for January 4, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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ABQ: Million-dollar sales boom
Realtors are liars.
“Realtors are liars.”
Yes! And their lies allow my numerous dotted lines to be covered with signatures of numerous lied-to marks.
Bahahaha .. the liars lie and the marks believe and I get to kick back and allow the money to endlessly flow in.
Life is good.
Mr. Banker some of your best work, 175% interest, even Al Capone would have been impressed:
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2014/12/25/dipping-into-auto-equity-devastates-many-borrowers/?ref=business
Usually people move or find a roommate quickly. Its just amazing how many people can’t read or do math today. And She has a job as a lab technician…….that’s the real scary part.
The lab technician, Caroline O’Connor, who needed about $1,000 to cover her rent and electricity bills, believed she had found a financial lifeline.
Capitalism, yo!
“Real estate professionals said they are not yet too worried about the trend of fewer millennials choosing to own homes. They hope that millennials will eventually decide to settle down and buy a house, even if they wait a little longer than their parents did.”
It will just take them a few more decades to save up that 150k down payment for a starter house.
Because people are smart …
“The rusting 1994 Oldsmobile sitting in a driveway just outside St. Louis was an unlikely cash machine.
“That was until the car’s owner, a 30-year-old hospital lab technician, saw a television commercial describing how to get cash from just such a car, in the form of a short-term loan.”
“… saw a television commercial …”
Bahahaha … IOW she did some serious and intensive research on the matter, considered all of her options and then chose the best option that would fit her needs.
“The lab technician, Caroline O’Connor, who needed about $1,000 to cover her rent and electricity bills, believed she had found a financial lifeline.”
“financial lifeline” = The Dotted Line Special
“It was a relief,” she said. “I did not have to beg everyone for the money.”
Bahahaha … she wasn’t the only one to experience some relief. It was probably the best sex a lender could ever hope to get.
“Her loan carried an annual interest rate of 171 percent. More than two years and $992.78 in debt later, her car was repossessed.”
Bahahaha … Thank you sir, may I have another?
“These companies put people in a hole that they can’t get out of,” Ms. O’Connor said.”
Bahahahahahahahaha … The companies put her into a hole, not her, but the companies.
Bahahahahahahaha … clone her and clone her and clone her, and then send all the clones to me.
These people have been conditioned since childhood to believe debt is harmless, normal, even a good thing (”Invest in yourself!”, “Liberate the equity in your home!”). There’s probably a government guarantee of that debt somewhere along the track.
Because the future belongs to Lucky Ducky
New York Times - The Economics (and Nostalgia) of Dead Malls
“It is very much a haves and have-nots situation,” said D. J. Busch, a senior analyst at Green Street. Affluent Americans “will keep going to Short Hills Mall in New Jersey or other properties aimed at the top 5 or 10 percent of consumers. But there’s been very little income growth in the belly of the economy.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/business/the-economics-and-nostalgia-of-dead-malls.html?_r=0
A nation of broke @ss loosers
I think the Short Hills Mall was pretty much the first of its kind when they built it in the 60s. Everyone shopped there, but most people who lived in Summit/Chatham were already in the top 10%.
Is there still a compelling reason to go to a shopping mall?
The day after Christmas we stepped into a Macy’s to buy some Spode Christmas china that was heavily discounted. When I saw the prices (allegedly on sale) for clothes (say $80 for a pair of designer jeans) I couldn’t help but wonder who shops there for clothes. Yet it was quite busy. We purchased our crockery and left.
I would rather have to view the fine artwork being displayed in those designer jeans than some cruddy old Spode plates.
+1.
Washington Post - How to find a feminist boyfriend
“If you’re a woman who wants a man to grab you and kiss you because that’s what sweeps you off your feet, realistically, a feminist man is not going to do that,” says Rita Goodroe, a 38-year-old life coach in Northern Virginia who works mostly with singles. “He’s going to ask for permission.”
A feminist dater or boyfriend (and yes, feminists have boyfriends) is aware of the ways women have traditionally been held back, by others and by our own accord, and actively pushes against that. He’s sensitive to the fact that women’s bodies are frequently judged, abused and legislated, and takes no part in that. He gets it.
I’ve long believed that dating like a feminist — which often involves making the first move — will weed out many of the guys with more rigid ideas about gender and relationships. It might also help identify the feminist man who doesn’t want to come on too strong or who feels it isn’t necessarily his responsibility to signal interest.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/how-to-find-a-feminist-boyfriend/2015/01/02/ebd9ed10-8f7b-11e4-a900-9960214d4cd7_story.html
“He’s going to ask for permission.”
And he should also ask you to sign a consent form.
“a feminist man…”
That sounds rather unhealthy.
Sounds like a girly man.
Yup. At least he’s kind enough to post an ad on Craigslist when she is looking for a man who’s a little less feminine.
Sounds like a girly man ??
Maybe because the “macho” man is under siege…Just one hour ago I read a 2010 essay from the Atlantic call “The End of Men”..It, IMO, sheds much light on much of what we see going on today particularly with Millennials…Its a bit long but riveting…
The Macho Men are doing fine. They’re knocking up all the single moms, and in record numbers too.
My wife and I got ourselves into trouble last night by commenting on the “macho” nature of the pickup basketball games that happen over at LA Fitness while we work out there. Apparently to point out that the behavior of a group of 20 grunting, sweating, unrestrained, hypercompetitive men is “macho” is somehow sexist in the mind of our 20-yr-old college age daughter.
We eventually conceded the disagreement on all points (i.e. lied) and changed the subject in order to quell the outrage over our politically incorrect perspective.
Well…. check out the effeminate Planet Fitness. If you were to waste your time, effort in energy working out on BS machines, you’d find yourself ejected rather quickly for uttering a grunt.
If you like a workout with the worked picked out of it and one that does nothing, check out Planet Fitness.
They’re knocking up all the single moms, and in record numbers too ??
Which goes to the point of the essay Colorado…Suggesting that many women see the male as only a sperm bank…Nothing more…Read it…
Pbear…Having a 20 year old daughter it would be worth the read for you also…Enlightening…At least from my perspective…
Speaking of “The End of Men,” I am getting vibes that her 20-yr-old boyfriend is breaking up with her. I’m dreading the prospect of vicariously living through my daughter’s heartbreak, while revisiting the memories of my similar experiences when I was her age.
Which goes to the point of the essay Colorado…Suggesting that many women see the male as only a sperm bank…Nothing more…Read it…
And that’s the way Macho Men like it. They aren’t interested in putting a ring on it. Nice feminist guys are welcome to marry the single moms and help them raise Macho Man’s spawn (and there’s often more than one baby daddy), because Macho Man isn’t interested. They just need to watch out for that sky high divorce rate. Child support (and yes, you can get stuck paying CS for a kid that isn’t yours) and alimony can ruin your day.
Life is very good for Macho Man.
Life is very good for Macho Man.
Except when the state comes after him for all of that back Child Support… I don’t think it is quite as sweet a gig as you guys are painting it.
Except when the state comes after him for all of that back Child Support
They have to find him first, and if he’s a deadbeat from what I’ve seen he’s let off the hook. The only guys who pay CS are nice feminist guys with fat wallets.
Pretty easy to find someone these days if they have a job and aren’t using a fake SSN. Just follow the money…
Another side of being a male feminist is that I feel no remorse whatsoever in asking for the little lady to pull her own weight in all financial aspects of our marriage. Separate accounts, ledgers to keep overall joint expenditures equal (with a lump sum transfer at month end), and asking for 1-1 equality in joint savings and investments. So far it’s worked pretty well.
So far it’s worked pretty well.
It’s all fantasy-land accounting if you live in a community property state. In those, if worse comes to worst, you get to divide everything in half regardless of whose account it ended up in.
Hope it keeps working well for you though!
You get married and you are one entity in the eyes of the law. Her credit card debt is your debt if you split up. Doesn’t matter if you’d been paying the bills previously and counting your shekels.
One entity.
True, but slightly oversimplified. PRIOR debts and PRIOR assets only become joint debts/assets if you commingle them—mix together—with other joint debts/assets. But if it is revolving debt like a CC, and you continue to charge joint expenses, then things do get very confused.
My advice is to keep all prior assets and all prior debts separated.
My advice is to keep all prior assets and all prior debts separated.
While part of me is unhappy that my long-time girlfriend isn’t interested in marriage, all of these issues make it seem like maybe it is the best way for things to be: long-term, committed relationship, cohabitation, but separate finances, assets, debts, etc.
We are on a lease together, but outside of that we both do our own thing.
drumminj, I hate to break it to you, but all of the intricacies of community property law may well still apply to you, even in your long-term, committed, cohabitating but unmarried relationship.
Google up the term of art “meretricious relationship”; it sounds like you are in one.
In a meretricious relationship, WA State may decide that what they call “pseudo community property” applies to your situation. In other words, the community property law that would apply in a marriage could be applied to your non-married situation.
If you do not intend to have that law applied to your situation, your best bet is to have a cohabitation agreement, which specifically states what is separate property and what is joint property.
Best of luck, and I hope you never have to find out the hard way; regardless, I do recommend that you seek counsel.
Google up the term of art “meretricious relationship”; it sounds like you are in one.
Interesting, Prime. I was actually just reading up on that yesterday (prior to this thread). The concept of a “marriage-like” relationship and all that.
It does sound like a court may decide that debts and assets acquired during the relationship can be shared/split upon dissolution of the relationship.
My estate planning lawyer did not express any concern when I mentioned us living together/asked if there were any things to be aware of. This was about a month ago. I’ll have to do more research.
A feminist dater or boyfriend (and yes, feminists have boyfriends) is aware of the ways women have traditionally been held back, by others and by our own accord, and actively pushes against that. He’s sensitive to the fact that women’s bodies are frequently judged, abused and legislated, and takes no part in that. He gets it.
He gets to be the shoulder she cries on while she says “Why can’t my boyfriend be more like you?” before the big bad dude texts her and she runs off to “see” him.
There’s a name for where those feminist guys live: the Friend Zone.
There’s another name for those feminist guys: Eunuchs.
i’d rather go with WUSSIES!!!!
spoken like 3 single or unhappily married men.
I want a woman who kicks a##, argues her point, brings home a paycheck, and understands what’s going on when I come home from work exhausted. One who knows how hard it is to earn money and the importance of saving it. Likewise, I’m happy to pitch in cleaning the house and taking care of the kids. I enjoy it.
It’s funny how they use the term feminist man and not a man who understands and supports the feminist woman.
“There is no secret as to why downside insurance is so heavily subsidized by the central banking branch of the state and is therefore so cheaply available to speculators. The absurd doctrine of “wealth effects” and the implicit Greenspan/Bernanke/Yellen “put” has generated a toxic deformation in the risk asset markets. Namely, the “buy-the-dips” reflex which has purged volatility from the broad market index almost entirely.”
If there is this put and no risk to the downside then he should be advocating going all in. I happen to think the risk is being ignored, not that it is not there.
“Sand is an important ingredient in hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, which has pushed American oil output above 9 million barrels a day, rivaling the production of Saudi Arabia or Russia. Sand companies’ biggest customers used to be golf courses and glass manufacturers, but the oil boom brought energy clients to their door and now roughly 60% of business is tied to fracking, according to PacWest Consulting Partners, which forecasts sand demand.”
Bahahahaha … here’s some supporting evidence that People Are Smart:
“Overnight, Bitcoin Price made the plunge to long-term support currently near $270. This is an important juncture in the price chart, and the end of decline is finally in sight. Additional decline is possible, and market participants are advised to wait for confirmation that the low has been struck.”
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-plunges-decline-lows/
“… and the end of decline is finally in sight.”
Buy the dip! Borrow the money if you have to! Visit you local banker first thing Monday morning and MAKE IT HAPPEN!
(Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaahahahahahahaahaha.)
About $255 now
A make-believe, backed by nothing “currency” plunging? Never saw it coming….
I just now googled-up “bitcoin jokes” and got 779,000 hits.
Some images:
https://www.google.com/search?q=bitcoin+jokes&biw=1600&bih=775&tbm=isch&tbo=u&source=univ&sa=X&ei=qWepVJjULIOxggSkqoGQCA&sqi=2&ved=0CB0QsAQ
while the peanut gallery chortles the startup companies increase.
http://newsbtc.com/2015/01/04/spacebit-build-cryptocurrency-bank-space/
Laughing about what you don’t know is kind of cute though. Recommend “Mastering Bitcoin” by Andreas M. Antonopoulos.
If using Bitcoin requires “mastering” and you need to read a book to know how to use it and keep it safe from hackers, what chance is there that Joe 6 Pack will use it, and it becomes the defacto currency?
It could be made a simple as tapping your phone against an NFC reader. Just a matter of software.
The reasons for it to fail are more in the vein of PB’s criticisms: a potentially infinite variety of different bitcoin-equivalent. I’m still not sure how strong the network effects are in this space.
Network effects may represent bitcoin’s only hope.
However, one of the primary motivations for using cryptocurrency, that of hiding black market transactions from legal and tax authorities, encourages fragmentation of the cryptocurrency space towards myriad anonymous bitcoin knockoffs which collectively desiccate bitcoin demand.
encourages fragmentation of the cryptocurrency space towards myriad anonymous bitcoin knockoffs
Not sure I concur on that point, PB. Bitcoin-style (shared transaction log) crytocurrency provides the strangest form of anonymity even with only a single currency in use.
On the one hand, it is decidedly anonymous, in that you can generate any number of “identities” at any time that you want; a new identity is merely a public/private key pair that you generate. So you can be any number of “people”, all of whom are very anonymous unless you make mistakes that reveal your identity.
On the other hand, though, all transactions are public—they only exist if they are logged in that common shared log, and the log gets signed by the competition of bitcoin-mining. In other words, every single transfer transaction occurs in the light of day! There is zero privacy in that, if your real-world identity ever gets unmasked and tied to that public/private key-pair.
More to the point: I don’t see how a plethora of cryptocurrencies adds to anonymity in any way, really.
It could be made a simple as tapping your phone against an NFC reader. Just a matter of software.
Given how the credit and debit card industry are utterly incapable of fending off hackers I doubt it will be that simple. My debit card was replaced THREE times last year due to retailer data breaches. A few years ago my daughter’s checking account was cleaned out by a hacker who got her debit card number out of a movie theater ticket kiosk. The bank replaced her money. If your bitcoins get hacked you will be SOL, as NO ONE will guarantee their safety.
“strangest form”
I’m sure you meant strongest.
But no matter: However strong the level of anonymity, the fact that you are transacting over well-worn communication pathways in the ‘light of day’ has the effect of increasing the risk of scrutiny for black market activities that may be transacted in bitcoin.
An ideal cryptocurrency for illegal trade would offer the same level of anonymity to users without all the hype and visibility which were necessary for bitcoin to bubble and bust.
Bitcoin exec gets two years over illegal Silk Road funny money trading
‘Knowingly and wilfully’ involved, says judge
22 Dec 2014 at 14:57, Kat Hall
Former Bitcoin Foundation exec Charlie Shrem has been jailed for two years for his part in helping people illegally swap cash for bitcoins on black market site Silk Road.
The virtual currency was the only form of payment accepted on the now-defunct online bazaar.
In September 25-year-old Shrem pleaded guilty to charges of being involved in the illegal currency trading, telling the court that he “knew that much of the business on Silk Road involved the buying and selling of narcotics”.
Shrem admitted last week he had “screwed up” He added: “Bitcoin is my baby, it’s my whole world and my whole life, it’s what I was put on this earth to do. I need to be out there. If your honor grants me that, I can be out there in the world, making sure that people don’t do the same stupid things that I did.”
On sentencing US District Judge Jed Rakoff said Shrem had committed a serious crime and that the prison term was warranted, reported Bloomberg.
“There’s no question that Mr. Shrem, over a period of many months, was knowingly, wilfully, to some extent excitedly and even passionately involved in activities he knew were, in part, involved in serious violations of the law,” the judge said.
…
My debit card was replaced THREE times last year due to retailer data breaches.
This is because our credit-card industry made an intentional choice to go with “low security” many many years ago; they decided to stick with the combination of “16 digits on the front plus three on the back”. When those numbers get found in the trash or in some company’s database that gets hacked, it is game over.
Europe uses smart-cards with chips in them. The key never leaves the chip, so it cannot be found in the trash or in a database. The transaction signature does leave the card. See the difference? Someone who has a way to grab the stream of transaction data can not generate new transaction signatures.
Our CC companies chose not to implement this; I would have to guess that it was strictly a business decision based on the costs involved (infrastructure investment vs fraud losses).
But assuming that the insecurity of one (intentionally weak) scheme implies anything about a completely different form of payment/transfer is short-sighted. Heck, the increased security of phone-tap bitcoin transactions could end up being a significant reason for adoption!
I’m sure you meant strongest.
No, I definitely meant “strangest”. It is freaking strange!!
The combination of anonymous users who publish _publicly_ every penny they spend is a weird, weird world.
Does that not strike you as a very strange form of anonymous transactions?!?
Given that bitcoin is supposedly a ‘currency,’ I find it curious that bitcoin users choose to convert between ‘worthless’ fiat currency and bitcoin. Wouldn’t it be more practical to just conduct all your personal business in a single currency than to constantly drain your wealth by paying exchange fees?
Illinois Man Convicted of Operating Illegal Money Transfer Business for Selling Bitcoins
P. H. Madore
CCN has confirmed with US Attorney’s Office spokeswoman Sharon Paul that one John D. Powell of Normal, Illinois has been convicted on two counts of “operating an illegal money transfer business” and was yesterday sentenced to four years in federal prison.
The spokeswoman could not confirm what the name of the Bitcoin exchange was, but the interesting thing about the indictment is that it also lists a third charge, possession of less than 50 kilograms of marijuana with intent to distribute.
On Reddit, there has been speculation that the man sold his bitcoins using LocalBitcoins and failed to register as a money transferrer, which apparently is what folks in Illinois are required to do.
The marijuana raises the question of whether or not this is actually related to Silk Road or a similar dark web site. According to the indictment, Powell operated from May, 2012 until February, 2014, and converted bitcoins into an amount as much as $3 million.
Court documents which are not available to CCN, according to the Associated Press, indicate that the business was in fact a cash-to-Bitcoin type of operation.
…
OK, strange it is!
BTW, is it possible for American consumers to get European credit cards? Having been hacked multiple times in recent years, I am ready to try something different besides Megabank, Inc’s crappy offerings.
An ideal cryptocurrency for illegal trade would offer the same level of anonymity to users
without all the hype and visibility which were necessary for bitcoin to bubble and bust.…without all the transactions occurring in plain view. The problems with the currency have nothing to do with the hype and everything to do with transactional visibility and history.
When I slide someone a benjamin on the street, only he and I and anyone watching through a high-powered camera lens now that the transaction occurred. In a room with no windows, only someone with bugs in the room would know.
An ideal cryptocurrency for illegal trade would share those characteristics.
My chase card was upgraded (to whatever… but no annual fees). The important thing is that it has a chip in it. However, since not all vendors have the chip card reader they will still use the old “swipe” format. I think the US is catching on.
My point was that the objective of blowing a bubble that would enable bitcoin investors to make a fortune by purchasing at a unit price of $0.00 in July 2010 and selling for $1,145.46 on November 29, 2013 is at odds with anonymity.
Invisible currencies lack bubble potential.
We’re on the same page.
And the shortcomings of bitcoin as an anonymous medium of exchange are certain to be remedied by technological change that gives rise to truly anonymous cryptocurrencies, further eroding the value of bitcoin per se.
Too bad, so sad for those who got sucked in at the bitcoin peak.
Does anyone know of any good statistical models for describing the break point between when a bubble is in the hyperbolic price appreciation phase and when it pops? It is easy to see visually, but may be tricky to describe statistically.
BTW, is it possible for American consumers to get European credit cards?
I’m sure it is possible to get one—but my impression is that the problem is that we lack the infrastructure at POS; in other words, in spite of having a card capable of more-secure transactions, your approvals would be based on the same low-security infrastructure. Net benefit to you: zero, except when traveling in Europe or Canada.
An ideal cryptocurrency for illegal trade would offer the same level of anonymity to users
Thats why a national sales tax seems a much needed idea….even crooks have to spend the money and if everything is taxed…well
“When I slide someone a benjamin on the street, only he and I and anyone watching through a high-powered camera lens now that the transaction occurred. In a room with no windows, only someone with bugs in the room would know.”
Christina Garman and others at Johns Hopkins came up with a means for anonymous transactions. It’s only a matter of months before someone implements this for cryptocurrency and they do mention Bitcoin would fit right in:
https://eprint.iacr.org/2013/622.pdf
Trouble with sales tax is that it’s regressive, unless it applies at different percentage rates to luxuries and necessities (not normally the case). I guess that would provide an incentive for everybody to get rich, though, right?
See again you warble without knowing about it. Bitcoin is more than about a crypto currency. It’s blockchain architecture is beautiful. Proposals of other uses such as contracts have been written up in white papers. Scholars are extending the concept to add decentralized anonymous attestation. The Bitcoin price may drop to $100 or so but that does not affect the blockchain’s applications.
Agreed, Bill—there is an elegance to the design.
How do you counter PB’s criticism, though? The same architecture works equally well with a near-infinite number of increasing-difficulty “this hash fits the pattern” schemes (# of zero bits, # of ones bits, alternating ones-and-zeroes, etc etc etc)
I am not confident about Bitcoin’s “built in” limitation at 21 million coins yet. I have only gotten to chapter three. BTW I am experimenting myself by creating my full index wallet, which means to synchronize the whole blockchain. I am a computer geek and this is well worth learning whether or not you put even more than $5 into a Bitcoin ATM.
‘The same architecture works equally well with a near-infinite number of increasing-difficulty “this hash fits the pattern” schemes (# of zero bits, # of ones bits, alternating ones-and-zeroes, etc etc etc).’
It brings to mind the Enigma code that Alan Turing and colleagues cracked during WWII, as dramatized in the current movie The Imitation Game. The Germans scrambled the cipher every 24 hours to keep the Allies from cracking the code, until Turing and colleagues developed an early prototype of the computer to break the code in time to act on the information.
In the case of bitcoin and related currencies, the scrambling of patterns represents product differentiation with consequential market fragmentation and dissipation of demand for bitcoin.
While I agree that cyrptocurrency technology is here to stay with waves of innovation to come, this development phase of cryptocurrency technology seems more likely to undermine the value of bitcoin than to enhance it.
Bitcoin is more than about a crypto currency. It’s blockchain architecture is beautiful.
And this will persuade J6P to use it? Don’t get me wrong, I dig the anonymity portion of it, especially in this day and age of government intrusion. But I don’t dig that some hacker who is more clever than I am could clean me out.
Even with my cryptography background I keep enough skepticism to have far more precious metals than crypto currency. At this point I have zero cryptocurrency but that will change.
Fiat money in your own possession does have some anonymity. Though the bills are marked serially. Too much to track. And if you are not important, why would you expect them to track you?
You have to worry about security, and fire.
Platinum halves, quarters, tenths, are great to stack up. Buy them every now and then. When I sell (and I’ve done sometimes), I don’t do paperwork. It’s under $10,000.
Even though they are compact, they do take up space. And you have to worry about security still.
Bitcoin is insanely compact of courrse. You can carry $millions in bitcoin on a flash drive. Encrypted wallet (based on you having the private key and no one else).
If I was a multimillionaire, I would live well below my means and my financial privacy would be where I would put at least half in bitcoin. Then the hot chick that tricks me into marriage, then divorce will only get half the visible amount of wealth, wouldn’t she?
I like to think these are three ways to build up some sort of safety. Each has its faults and advantages that make them a complementary safety net, I would think.
While I agree that cyrptocurrency technology is here to stay with waves of innovation to come, this development phase of cryptocurrency technology seems more likely to undermine the value of bitcoin than to enhance it.
I see this one as having potential in both directions. Some technical innovations may serve to undermine the value of bitcoin; but some definitely have the effect of enhancing the value of them, both by easing use, increasing the size of the network, and solving real-world problems. Whether it is a net gain or a net loss remains to be seen, IMHO.
Agreed. The future generally looks bright for cyrptocurrency technology; not necessarily so for bitcoin, though. A glance at the price chart since November 2013 shows where bitcoin is headed.
In an admittedly tiny survey conducted starting a week ago of three locations in the Southland, I noticed people stopping by Bitcoin ATMs with curiousity. I think more people are becoming interested despite (or because of) the price coming down. In Venice Beach at locali Conscious I met a couple who I found out were libertarians and they were interested in getting bitcoin. At Brea at the mall where there is another ATM several mall walkers stopped to look at the machine I was fussing with. Yes older boomers or older than the older boomers even. There is a Bitcoin machine at the ARCTIC in Anaheim in the shadows of Angels Stadium. ATMs springing up all over the place.
I met an antrepreneur involved in getting those machines placed all over. He and I had a long conversation and that’s how I ended up getting a copy of Antonopoulous’ book, “Mastering Bitcoin.”
I have another motive, to learn more about it than a colleague at my office. He created his own cryptocurrency last year on one of our office servers and made 300,000 of his coins. But they are useless he says, correctly, because you need someone to trade with. You need more people in the blockchain. My approach is to keep quiet about what I know until I know it well.
More startup companies in multiple cryptocurrencies implies more competition, and a weaker market position, for bitcoin. This in turn creates more downward pressure on the value of bitcoin.
Don’t fall for scams in the cryptocurrency realm as this wave of technological change washes out!
You know I am cautious. But there are reasons also to assume risk in a new area when the GP is ignorant of that area. Knowledge is power. And sometimes even when you get to 1% of new knowledge while the GP has zero knowledge, that makes the GPs comments laughable, like any superstion.
Figure out how to invest in proprietary cyrptocurrency technology, and not on any one variety of cryptocurrency, and you should do well.
True. But did you know that Litecoin and Dogecoin and darkcoin have their own blockchain’s? The blockchain is the central concept of crypto currency. No matter which coin, lots of startups are going on in this area. The blockchain for instance is key for decentralization of many things in our lives.
https://ribbitrewards.me
Based on blockchain technology
The blockchain for instance is key for decentralization of many things in our lives.
Not sure I follow; what other areas of life could benefit from a blockchain (shared transaction log)? I’m not seeing any off-hand.
Bitcoin is completely out of the control of central banks. That is what I mean. Central banks are key to wars, enslaving people in debt, and their tentacles are in all of our lives.
I like the idea of Bitcoin to help shut down the uniformed road pirates. Rather than carry cash in your car you have your Bitcoin wallet. Of course it is a backup copy. It is password protected. You would get to your destination and convert it into whatever currency you want.
You can carry more than $10,000 USD in Bitcoin with you outside the country. Password protected. Again.
You can easily understate your wealth through holding a big chunk of it in Bitcoin. And not tell anyone how much you own.
these are various ways at thwarting the leviathan State.
“I like the idea of Bitcoin to help shut down the uniformed road pirates.”
If you have the technical know-how to create a knockoff, perhaps that is the path you should take.
If you have the technical know-how to create a knockoff, perhaps that is the path you should take.
If it gets to the stage of common use among vendors, there will be no reason to convert cryptocurrency to any other currency. And this asset forfeiture (which I call legalized road piracy) will be one less thing to worry about.
There are people who carry large sums of money who 1) are not drug dealers and 2) are not terrorists and 3) it’s their own money, but for some reason they do. I know of people who buy cars with cash. I sometimes carry $thousands of dollars in cash to buy precious metals. I have to always check that my brake lights work, that my plate is tagged properly, that I drive the flow of the traffic to reduce my chances of getting stopped by a road pirate. Because they will manufacture a probable cause then search your car without a warrant - at their whim, and take whatever cash you have. Permanently.
I hope my coin shop gets on the bitcoin bandwagon.
“I know of people who buy cars with cash.”
We’ve done that a couple of times now. It some times pays to not be a home debtor.
“Don’t fall for scams in the cryptocurrency realm as this wave of technological change washes out!”
Wrong! One should embrace this technological change and somehow drag himself into the Twenty-First Century and free himself from his limited thinking in terms of worthless fiat dollars and advance and promote his thinking and learn to embrace the new reality of CYBERCURRENCY.
And one can best do this by borrowing all the worthless fiat dollars he could possibly handle - borrow even more than he can handle - and then he should GO ALL IN and buy up every bitcoin he can get hold of.
Come and visit your local bank branch and learn how you can MAKE IT HAPPEN!
Shorting worthless fiat currencies in order to get as fully invested as possible in bitcoin is a great idea! Is there any evidence to suggest too-clever-by-half investors are already doing this?
Which technogeek bitcoin investor has the largest phallus?
December 9, 2014, 2:12pm EST | Updated: December 9,
2014, 4:07pm EST
Barry Silbert edges out Tim Draper with 48,000 bitcoin victory in fight for crypto-dominance
Tim Draper (left) may have won the first round of auctions of bitcoins confiscated from Ross Ulbricht, but today we learned Barry Silbert (right) won the second, larger auction. Bloomberg
Michael del Castillo
The UpTake: Barry Silbert’s recent victory puts him well ahead in his epic duel for bitcoin investment supremacy with Tim Draper. But don’t count Mark Andressen out of the hunt.
2014 will go down in the history books as the year mainstream investors discovered their appetite for bitcoin startups. No single story better epitomizes that burgeoning interest that Barry Silbert and Tim Draper’s epic duel over confiscated Silk Road assets at two government run auctions this year.
In a tweet earlier this morning, we learned that Barry Silbert’s Bitcoin Investment Trust took home the vast majority of the 50,000 bitcoins confiscated from Ross Ulbricht’s computer this February.
“Pleased to share that the syndicate organized by @BitcoinTrust & our trading division won 48k bitcoin auctioned by the US Marshals,” Silbert, who is also chairman of illiquid asset marketplace, SecondMarket, tweeted. The bitcoins are worth approximately $16.6 million today. In April Silbert tweeted that the trust owned 100,000 bitcoins.
His syndicate won 19 of the 20 blocks auctioned, divided into 10 blocks of 2,000 bitcoins and 10 blocks of 3,000 bitcoins. The crypto-currency, only part of that confiscated from Ulbricht, believed by the FBI to be the mastermind behind the shuttered Silk Road black market, will be divided among 104 syndicate members, according to a CoinDesk report.
Tim Draper, co-founder of Draper Fischer Jurvetson, which has invested in 22 billion-dollar companies, won the 20th block, a marked difference compared to the previous U.S. Marshal auction of bitcoins confiscated from Ulbricht.
In July Draper won the entire 30,000 bitcoins for sale, then valued at $19 million, beating out Silbert and others. He promptly partnered with Vaurum, now Mirror, an escrow exchange for bitcoin trading, to leverage the currency in hyper-inflated economies, which they view as the ideal environment to invest bitcoin. Draper implied in a CoinDesk report that the meager victory may be part of a larger plan.
“I will still need to purchase some bitcoin on the open market to fulfill my obligation to Boost,” Draper told CoinDesk. Boost VC is the incubator founded by his son Adam Draper, and an early backer of Mirror and other bitcoin startups.
Silbert, who resigned as CEO of Second Market in July to focus on his bitcoin operations, is on the board of the Digital Currency Council, and through his Bitcoin Opportunity Corporation, has invested in BitPay, Coinsetter, and Unocoin, among others.
Silbert and Draper have both invested in Mirror, with offices in Palo Alto, Calif. and New York City.
Another big time investor in the hunt for bitcoin dominance, Marc Andreessen, in March of this year said he would invest “hundreds of millions” of dollars in bitcoin startups, according to a Business Insider report. As recently as October Andreessen said while Apple Pay may be cool now, in the long term bitcoin is the “most innovative and radical thing.”
…
“…to leverage the currency in hyper-inflated economies, which they view as the ideal environment to invest bitcoin.”
If these economies are an ideal environment in which to invest bitcoin, wouldn’t they be ideal places to invest other currencies as well?
What is special about bitcoin when it comes to investing in hyperinflationary environments?
More startup companies in multiple cryptocurrencies implies more competition, and a weaker market position, for bitcoin.
I disagree; some of those startups may be creating real solutions to real problems in the space, which could significantly improve adoption—and perhaps even reduce fragmentation.
Imagine a startup that make transfers a trivial as an app-install, and an NFC-capable phone tap; or one that makes accepting the currency on your website as trivial as adding a plugin; or one that provides some form of escrow service that reduces risk for participants. All of those could help improve adoption. Depending on the real network effects, they might also reduce fragmentation.
Or a startup that solves
Keep going…this is an interesting discussion! It is far more enlightening than arguing with AlbqDan about why oil is unlikely to soon return to over $100/bbl prices.
For the comment about having to convert Bitcoin to another currency, it is less and less required as more vendors accept bitcoin.
One guy’s attempt to live only on Bitcoin for a month:
http://techcrunch.com/2014/12/21/living-on-bitcoin/
“…it is less and less required as more vendors accept bitcoin.”
There is one of the network effects Prime_Is_Contained referenced above.
Similarly, everyone I know uses Microsoft software — even people who claim to hate Microsoft!
Part of the network effect is from the hipsterism of it, I’m sure. Two years ago it was the province of libertarians, just like Internet was 20 years ago - about 0ne out of two users a libertarian. Now the “progressive” young people are getting involved. Soon they will make it their own, and not even think of the side effect of going against Keynesianism and the Fed.
“Yet this typical momo “rip” had occurred not out of the natural elements of human greed and capitalist enterprise, but because the stock market has been destroyed by the Fed. That is, the combination of ZIRP and wealth effects “puts” have eviscerated all of the checks and balances that contain and modulate speculation in honest free markets.”
Did David Stockman ever actually predict anything specific before it occurred? Or is he like most financial geniuses who grouse and bitch about what is going on presently and then point to some vague statements months or years back claiming they called it?
Did David Stockman ever actually predict anything specific before it occurred ??
I think so…He got ran out by Reagan because he did not buy into his economic theory…
“He got ran out by Reagan because he did not buy into his economic theory…”
And he is still ripping on it three decades hence. Good for him!
Reagan was a C student in economics, but he definitely was an A+ level salesman. Rather like the Walter Keane character* in the movie Big Eyes, I suspect, except that Reagan did not pretend to cook up the economic theories he espoused.
* If you haven’t seen this movie yet, I highly recommend it. As you watch it, bear in mind that Walter Keane’s primary profession was that of a Realtor™.
Guess which pair of eyes shown in this magazine article are a Realtor™’s?
At least he was smart enough to point out the fallacy of Reagonomics and quit. Not sure about all his predictions.
“Needless to say, in another example of the credit driven commodity price aberration where supply temporarily lags an unnatural explosion of demand, the price for fracking sand soared. From about $30 per ton in 2008, it rose to $45 per ton by 2012 and upwards of $80 per ton by mid-2014, with some trades already above the $100 per ton level.
As a result, by mid-2014 sand dunes had become the equivalent of gold mines. Marginal extraction costs of around $25 per ton had rising only modestly, meaning that variable profits from the fracking sand business had risen from under $5 per ton prior to the shale boom to more than $50 per ton.”
Whose lunacy do you keep quoting without attribution?
Sh!thouse poetry requires no attribution.
hashtag pound sand
#1. Funny.
az dude, we should be putting up links to this stuff. It doesn’t take long to include the URL. Keep in mind some websites don’t want their stuff posted here and I may not allow it.
10-4
w counties raising re taxes do any of you try to get 3 yr contracts?
I’m not sure what that means, exactly, but you bring up an interesting point that I read about in an article posted on Zero Hedge, in which the author advised people NOT to buy property in a state with a major dependence on property taxes, as opposed to other forms of taxation like income and sales taxes.
This sort of messes with the conventional thinking that has led many to find Florida, for example, as a sort of tax haven, as it doesn’t have a state income tax. It really shifted my point of view. At a time when incomes are on the decline, especially “middle class” incomes, one’s job or whatever becomes a less attractive means of money extraction, for state and county goobermints. But a house or piece of property, which can’t be sold as easily as it once could, becomes the money extraction tool of choice. A real ball and chain.
When you think about it, when someone buys a house, the real fun begins for the money extractors: government entities, utility companies, cable or fiber optic companies, home improvement companies, insurance companies, etc. Not to mention the mortgage company/servicer. It’s like a house becomes a money delivery entity.
It presents a picture of a house with all sorts of siphon tubes connected to it.
Nice image. The tubes go in the window of the house, but they are attached directly to the wretched homeowner.
There is no income tax in NY either, if you are retired.
There is no income tax in NY either, if you are retired.
Can you elaborate? Is only earned-income taxed in NY?
if you are retired ??
Yes, that confused me also…Can you explain ??
NY does not tax retirement income.
There is some advantage to being old and modest, not much but some.
NY does not tax retirement income.
Your comment left me wondering how they define “retirement income”…
Does it include passive investment income (interest, dividends)? Does it include 401k & IRA RMDs? Defined benefit pension payments? Annuities?
I’m guessing that it includes at least SS payments, but am very curious about the other categories of income that retirees typically have.
It’s like a house becomes a money delivery entity ??
Yep…But its all real estate really…Its the golden goose of many municipalities…Sewer fee’s have tripled in 5 years…So has Water & garbage….Cost you $25. flat fee to have a service “disconnect”…Cost you another $25. for a service “turn-on”…I could go on but the point is your right…Real Estate is the personal piggy bank of municipal fee collectors…
w counties raising re taxes do any of you try to get 3 yr contracts?
Got TABOR? I’m paying the same property tax I was paying 15 years ago, even though the assessment rose about 60% since then.
Got TABOR ??
No, but I got Prop.#13…
We have neither here (WA state); but of the two, TABOR sounds like it offers a better deal—more of a fair shake across purchasers from different time-frames. Having someone pay way more just because they bought more recently leads to some fairly ridiculous outcomes.
Got TABOR ??
No, but I got Prop.#13…
Prop 13 is good, but Sacramento and City Hall can nail you with other taxes. Those state and muni employee pensions aren’t free, you know.
France sounds like it is adopting Reaganomics, the 75% tax rate did not work out:
http://news.yahoo.com/frances-75-supertax-quietly-dies-few-mourners-055006058.html
Reagonomics didn’t work out so well either, for us. For all Ronnie’s bloviating about “big government” he massively increased the size of government spending.
Winning the cold war.
And then he dropped the size of government spending… right?!?
How does the story end?
Whatever bad stuff happened after Reagan left office was due to Clinton and Obama, as Republicans are above blame in AlbqDan’s world.
“Secondly, a fixed exchange rate is only attainable if the PBoC stands ready to exchange renminbi for US dollars and vice versa at the announced USD/CNY-rate. If a Chinese exporter receives US dollars for its exported products, US dollars are converted into renminbi, which the Chinese exporter receives. As a result of this demand for renminbi and the supply of US dollars, in theory the US dollar would have to depreciate in value versus the renminbi. Subsequently, in order to offset the upward pressure this gives on the renminbi, China’s central bank sells renminbi in exchange for US dollars or US dollar-denominated assets (most notably US Treasuries). Thereby, the PBoC accumulates foreign reserves. Unfortunately, these reserves typically have relatively low yields, especially compared to the yields earned on Chinese investments. This is a not-so-welcome by-product of controlling the exchange rate.
Moreover, if fixing the exchange rate requires selling renminbi to counter any upward pressure on the currency, it increases the amount of renminbi in the domestic economy: a build-up of the domestic money supply. As more currency is available, inflationary pressures arise. This is very undesirable, given that in the past high inflation has often lead to social unrest.”
” China’s intervention in currency markets causes it to
accumulate large levels of foreign exchange reserves, especially U.S. dollars, which it then uses
to purchase U.S. debt. Such purchases help the
U.S. government fund its budget deficits and help
keep U.S. interest rates low. These factors suggest
that an appreciation of the RMB to the dollar
benefits some U.S. economic sectors, but negatively affects others. “
True but China is making more deals with more countries to avoid using dollars either through direct swaps of their currencies or barter. Of course, the US is ballistic about both.
Does anyone remember the occasional arguments on the HBB about whether homes ever sold below $100/sq ft?
Would you believe there currently are markets where you can get into a livable single-family home for under $40/sq ft?
Ferguson, MO
Home Prices & Home Values
The average home price in Ferguson is $51,350, which is 13% lower than the average sold price in Ferguson ($59,032). The average home price per square foot in Ferguson is $38 and about 1% of all homes in Ferguson sold in the last 6 months. For Ferguson home values, real estate prices, and city market trends, research the 8,289 property records or search our 103 recently sold or 94 homes for sale listings. The listings and properties in Ferguson are only a part of the 1,842,054 properties and 34,092 homes for sale in Missouri. Because of this, the average home price and average home value of Ferguson also influence the average home price $106,527 and average sale price $199,869 of Missouri. Listing counts, Ferguson home prices and home values in Ferguson are sourced daily from listing and property data on realtor.com®, which is the most up-to-date and accurate aggregation of real estate listings in the industry and includes approximately 800 regional MLSs and is the official website of the National Association of Realtors®.
There are more than two dozen cities that I’ve looked at where you can buy houses at less than $50 square foot.
Detroit, Cleveland and St. Louis/Ferguson are not among those I looked at. Substandard areas.
Only a fool thinks that most housing markets are anything like the West Coast, Austin, Denver and the Northeast.
“Substandard areas.”
You might be surprised at the quality of the housing stock around St. Louis. I remember a few decades back when I studied Russian there with a teacher who was a recent immigrant. She commented on the superior quality and far greater abundance of housing in St. Louis compared to in the Soviet Union.
The problem quite often is not with the housing stock; rather it is with the deep, unresolved social problems endemic to the communities where the housing is located.
I’ve been around the states a few times and I can confidently say the architecture; what was specified on the plans and accepted by the owner(debtor) anywhere on the west coast(OR, WA and CA) isn’t something I would pay for. It’s really regional thing. I’ve seen more junk in those three states than anywhere else.
I drive a Buick. I think the 911 is ugly.. LOL!
Laziness justified.
And applying the rusty worn out rationalizations of a few of our debt junkies like “there are no jobs there!”, they’re overpriced, even at $40/sq.
I do like the reality that commercial real estate is imploding again though.
$40/sq ft is just the average. There are plenty of homes available around Ferguson, East St. Louis, Detroit, Gary and Flint at prices well under $40/sq ft. Some sell for as low as $1/sq ft; others for just $1.
Some sell for as low as $1/sq ft; others for just $1 ??
And for a very good reason….
You moving to Detroit?
Why would anyone move to Detroit if they could afford to buy homes in nicer towns like Albuquerque at prices within range of $100/sq ft?
“…the average home price $208,898 and average sale price $128,432 of New Mexico…”
How come New Mexico homes sell for 38.5% below their ‘average price’? What is this nonsensical statement even supposed to mean?
Albuquerque, NM
Home Prices & Home Values
The average home price in Albuquerque is $243,000. The average home price per square foot in Albuquerque is $114 and about 2% of all homes in Albuquerque sold in the last 6 months. For Albuquerque home values, real estate prices, and city market trends, research the 196,694 property records or search our 3,089 recently sold or 2,544 homes for sale listings. The listings and properties in Albuquerque are only a part of the 575,479 properties and 13,192 homes for sale in New Mexico. Because of this, the average home price and average home value of Albuquerque also influence the average home price $208,898 and average sale price $128,432 of New Mexico. Listing counts, Albuquerque home prices and home values in Albuquerque are sourced daily from listing and property data on realtor.com®, which is the most up-to-date and accurate aggregation of real estate listings in the industry and includes approximately 800 regional MLSs and is the official website of the National Association of Realtors®.
Apparently overpriced homes in NM are not selling.
It’s not like theyre selling anywhere else either.
How come New Mexico homes sell for 38.5% below their ‘average price’? What is this nonsensical statement even supposed to mean?
That only the smaller, older and this cheaper houses are selling because that’s all the average buyer can afford?
In other words, get to slashing.
See how that works?
The other side of the story is that the larger, newer and more expensive houses won’t sell at levels the current owners believe they are ‘worth.’ Fundamental realities will eventually rectify the situation.
Yes.
Yes. I see it here in some parts of the Tampa Bay area. Depends on the home and the ‘hood.
Bank repo across the street is up for sale around $67/sq ft. Seems to be getting LOTS of interest, no buyers yet, though. Because it’s not so much the initial sale price, but what the owners would have to put into it after the fact. Right now it is “livable”, but barely.
Gary Home Prices & Values
The median list price per square foot in Gary is $28, which is lower than the Chicago Metro average of $131. The median price of homes currently listed in Gary is $35,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $35,564. The median rent price in Gary is $749, which is lower than the Chicago Metro median of $1,579.
…
No one in their right mind would live in Gary.
Further east on the Lake Michigan coast…well, that’s a different story.
Professor Bear needs to move to Detroit and become Dr. Detroit. I see a new income stream.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/shipping-container-home-readying-detroit-144109411.html
That’s one of the dumbest ideas I’ve ever seen described in print. I’m not surprised it appealed to you.
Detroit Home Prices & Values
The median home value in Detroit is $41,100. Detroit home values have gone up 1.2% over the past year and Zillow predicts they will fall -0.8% within the next year. The median list price per square foot in Detroit is $15, which is lower than the Detroit Metro average of $100. The median price of homes currently listed in Detroit is $16,000 while the median price of homes that sold is $32,245. The median rent price in Detroit is $725, which is lower than the Detroit Metro median of $875.
“Would you believe there currently are markets where you can get into a livable single-family home for under $40/sq ft?”
Amy says she can easily beat that:
http://www.businessinsider.com/detroit-houses-for-1-dollar-2012-2
Go see Amy today and MAKE IT HAPPEN!
East St. Louis, IL
Home Prices & Home Values
The average home price in East St. Louis is $47,883, which is 64.6% lower than the average sold price in East St. Louis ($29,089). The average home price per square foot in East St. Louis is $32 and about 1% of all homes in East St. Louis sold in the last 6 months. For East St. Louis home values, real estate prices, and city market trends, research the 19,830 property records or search our 130 recently sold or 82 homes for sale listings. The listings and properties in East St. Louis are only a part of the 4,074,023 properties and 70,214 homes for sale in Illinois. Because of this, the average home price and average home value of East St. Louis also influence the average home price $151,679 and average sale price $240,073 of Illinois. Listing counts, East St. Louis home prices and home values in East St. Louis are sourced daily from listing and property data on realtor.com®, which is the most up-to-date and accurate aggregation of real estate listings in the industry and includes approximately 800 regional MLSs and is the official website of the National Association of Realtors®.
Flint Market Trends
The median sales price for homes in Flint MI for Sep 14 to Dec 14 was $58,500. This represents a decline of 4.9%, or $3,000, compared to the prior quarter and an increase of 7.3% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have appreciated 21.9% over the last 5 years in Flint. The average listing price for Flint homes for sale on Trulia was $50,325 for the week ending Dec 24, which represents a decline of 1.3%, or $688, compared to the prior week and an increase of 0.4%, or $200, compared to the week ending Dec 03. Average price per square foot for Flint MI was $28, a decrease of 12.5% compared to the same period last year.
“for under $40/sq ft”
Why not, when you can build new for that?
Alas, must we revisit the arbitrariness of the mania? My favorite example; in the fall of 2003 I visited Sedona, AZ for the first time, and spent the winter there. It was like there was a drug in the air to an outsider. Real estate! People’s eyes were bugging out with excitement and the money they were making. (Or refinancing, as was more often the case). But it was infectious. I didn’t really see it, because I knew I was leaving in the spring and I had this multi-year idea of a housing bubble in the back of my head, having seen potential examples from Brownsville to Anchorage and places in between in recent years.
Anyway, the local paper ran an article on nearby Cornville, an area more than a town. ‘What a bunch of yokels! Trailers and shacks’, the people in Sedona howled. I left, came back in the fall of 2004. Lo and behold, Cornville was the new IT! The locals now bragged about how house prices had skyrocketed. Even the trailers. Turned out, every little crap-shack community anywhere near Sedona had been discovered for the true gold mine it had always been. But besides the temporary boost of refi-money and remodeling/construction, what had really changed? There weren’t many ways to make money, except for construction, which cratered soon enough. Yet I’d bet they are down there in Cornville today, trying to hold onto those prices.
One of my former neighbors was a Sedona FB. She walked away once she was $250K underwater and is now living in a very modest rental with her new husband.
“…with her new husband.”
Last one is still dealing with the -$250k repercussions.
I remember us talking about some overpriced lots in sedona years ago. It seems like a tourist town to me. I went up there a couple times. They had these jeep tours and a bunch of shopping on main street. I cruised up to flagstaff along oak canyon nice drive.
There isn’t much work up there.It basically survives on people bringing money in.
First place I ever lived where most working people had 2 or 3 part time jobs. This brings back a concept that has been mentioned here recently. Why is there a bubble anywhere in particular? By the time I got to Sedona, that most obvious reason was the views. OK, so these little $40k houses were now $400k because of the colorful rocks? But the celebrities had discovered it. And the Californians. Any place we’ve watched has a story. The weather on the coasts. The universities in Boston. All the equity rich snowbirds moving to Florida or Arizona. It just gets more goofy from there. It only takes a notion for the mania to set in. In early 2005, I was finding reports of a leap-frogging bubble. Arkansas! Eric Estrada was doing TV ads late at night about that one. The justification? Wal-Mart jobs. Remember the swaths of vacant McMansions in Arkansas? And Minnesota?
IMO, most people have just forgotten about all this. It never made sense in Cornville, or Sedona or Prescott for houses to cost 4 or 5 hundred thousand bucks. For a brief time, sanity got a toehold. “What were they thinking?” asked the New York Times about Prescott. Tales of woe, foreclosure. It makes me sad that we’ve slipped back into insanity, because I remember what happened to all the people when it headed down the first time.
because I remember what happened to all the people when it headed down the first time.
But this time is different!!
/snark
“It makes me sad that we’ve slipped back into insanity, because I remember what happened to all the people when it headed down the first time.”
That’s because you positioned yourself on the wrong end of this insanity.
I remember you discussing Sedona long ago Ben…
At a glance, Cornville still looks bubbly.
Summary for Cornville
The median sales price for homes in Cornville AZ for Sep 14 to Dec 14 was $270,500. This represents an increase of 26.4%, or $56,500, compared to the prior quarter and an increase of 32% compared to the prior year. Sales prices have appreciated 28.8% over the last 5 years in Cornville. The average listing price for Cornville homes for sale on Trulia was $367,467 for the week ending Dec 24, which represents a decline of 1.9%, or $7,307, compared to the prior week and a decline of 1.2%, or $4,497, compared to the week ending Dec 03. Average price per square foot for Cornville AZ was $136, an increase of 3.8% compared to the same period last year.
ppsf in 2001 was in the $50-$60 range.
Why not, when you can build new for that ??
Demonstrate it….Break it down…Materials & labor…1,000 square foot house…I will get you started here;
#1. Trenching for foundation…
Go for it…
That would actually be really interested to read; I’m sure I would learn a thing or two.
HA, care to educate?
“I will get you started here…”
Here are the NAHB numbers for a 2,600 ft2 house. Construction cost $95/ft2. Nothing is spared. Having done a renovation in 2013/14 on a 2,000 ft2 house stripped down to the studs I can speak to about half the things on this list. The numbers are mostly about double retail, except for the insulation, that looks low. I spent about $10/ft on the renovation, which I think was about half of the project of new construction. The building (stripped) cost $17/ft2 (including village lot). Labor, weekends for about a year and I’m an old guy. The rest is layers of markups, subcontracting and fancy extras IMO.
If you bought a plain used house with no A/C, fireplace, appliances, decks, landscaping, chandeliers & etc. why would it cost more than $40 if you weren’t living in the mania?
link
http://www.nahb.org/generic.aspx?sectionID=734&genericContentID=221388&channelID=311
And I find it ironic in the minds of the hopelessly indebted, to build or to buy an existing structure is somehow 300% higher than actual, yet the losses to depreciation on an existing is apparently nothing.
The reality is the losses to depreciation are far higher than the original construction. I let the construction pro’s here think about that for a while.
And by the way Dave, it’s called a site package for small work like a house. It includes mass excavation, subgrade prep, backfilling, compacting, disposal if a net export job and all work associated with utility connections or installation of well and septic. For a typical plan, a site package is right around $20k plus or minus $2k.
Trenching isn’t a line item cost unless it’s a pipeline or long distances and then it becomes a unit price. Never a lump sum.
Dave has his ear plugs in.
That’s quite alright. I answered his question.
And I learned something; thanks.
Ok who stole the global warming?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/03/the-great-pause-lengthens-again/
When 2014 is officially declared the warmest on record, the climate deniers will be trotting out that RSS satellite data repeatedly. RSS measures temperatures in the troposphere, not the surface, and cannot be compared to surface data. As the evidence supporting manmade climate change continues to slowly build, you’ll see more grasping at straws like this from the denier side.
Anyway, when you rely on thousands of surface sensors (rather than one remote sensor), the temperature chart looks like this: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/service/global/lo-hem/201401-201411.gif
You could compare the satellite data to the ground data and up until a little over a year ago there was virtually no difference. Until you can explain why they suddenly diverged after the third world dictators were denied money at a conference and the pause was blamed, no we are not going to believe the ground based data. There are hundreds of billions of reasons for the data to be faked.
“There are hundreds of billions of reasons for the data to be faked”
Our scientists have determined that cigarette smoking is beneficial to your health.
It’s up to India to arrest the oil price decline.
Falling oil prices an advantage; but onus on India, China & Japan to arrest their own slowdowns
4 Jan, 2015, 11.25AM IST
By Sreeram Chaulia
The year 2015 commenced with nary a celebration in stock markets and finance ministries around the world. The new normal of unexpected fluctuations, coupled with a steady state of disappointing GDP growth statistics from key nerve centres, leaves everyone hanging by a thread. The pervasive fear unleashed when the global economic crisis began in 2008 is now part of the DNA of the global economy.
Gimlet-eyed investors may be bullish about specific commodities, securities, sectors or countries in 2015, but the overall picture is of wariness about the system. It is a season to be grateful for small mercies. As we rang in the New Year, the shellacking that oil received in the past six months reached new depths. When a barrel of crude oil goes for $54 compared to $114 in June last year, it is bound to have an oversized impact on all projections for what the Chinese term as the unlucky ‘Year of the Sheep’ marked by dependency and low self-esteem. Oil is one commodity whose negative shock value hits the most-affected swiftly, while its positive externalities take time to percolate and generate cheer. The first half of 2015 will witness continued jitters for investors sitting over oil reserves and oil-linked securities, as their holdings lose value without certainty about when the prices will bottom out and rebound.
…
No’ since the average cost to produce oil shale in the U.S. is at least $68 a barrel and the price of oil is far below that, drilling in this country will fall off the cliff and already has and we will lose as much production as needed to balance the world’s supply/demand. The energy war Obama helped launch will cost hundreds of thousands of jobs here. You don’t start a price war when you are the high cost producer, but basic economics escapes Obama and some posters on this board. Of course, Obama is blinded by his hatred of Putin for demonstrating he is an idiot. Every interview I have heard recently of him, he has stated that he would beat Putin. No he will not, there is no affirmative action for heads of state.
How come you support the Soviet Dictator over the U.S. President?
The correct question would be: why do you support the Russian dictator over the U.S. dictator? Answer: I am not supporting either one just betting on the outcome of their fight.
And as Azdude posts show the job losses may be in surprising places.
China has declared war on Mr. Obama. How dare they slow their credit expansion just to make him look silly?
BTW, the shame in bubble jobs being lost is that they were ever created in the first place.
“cost to produce oil shale in the U.S. is at least $68 a barrel…”
It’s not quite that simple. Shale oil has been produced for well over a century, and at lower prices.
“On 2 May 1982, known as “Black Sunday”, Exxon cancelled the Colony project due to low oil-prices and increased expenses, laying off more than 2,000 workers”
I was to transfer to Colony in Parachute CO in April 1982, but got diverted on a special 6 month assignment at Bayway. I was “that close” to being the proud owner of an $80,000 house in a ghost town.
Development of the oil shale in the US has much more to do with the spread between today’s oil price and tomorrow’s oil price than the supposed cost to produce. It’s like the housing mania.
Blue Skye that was not shale oil that was oil shale. They are often confused but not the same thing.
oil shale produces kerogen which can be converted into oil but is not oil. If you put kerogen at about 7,500 ft.underground and subject it to that pressure for millions of years you produce what we call oil. Which is how the shale oil was produced of course you can process it to produce oil.
Falling oil prices, falling housing prices. It’s all good
Am I to be schooled by a buffoon?
Just one thing and I’ll let the rest of it lie, shale is never packaged, measured or sold in barrels. Never.
“Am I to be schooled by a buffoon?”
I’m guessing he will do his best!
Vancouver: “Commercial Real Estate Sales Plunge 16%”
http://www.biv.com/article/2014/12/commercial-real-estate-sales-plunge-16/
Millions of excess square foot of inventory, rising defaults, cratering demand.
Lotsa junk debt tied up in those Canadian REIT’s.
Aren’t REIT’s funded entirely by junk and subprime debt?
No.
Wrong Jingle_Fraud. There no greater junk bond financing than there are in REIT’s. They’re high risk junk ready to implode.
“China Developer Kaisa’s Bonds Plunge After Loan Default”
http://www.biv.com/article/2014/12/commercial-real-estate-sales-plunge-16/
Defaulting commercial RE paper far and wide.
Does this indicate that China has entered the ‘cascading debt defaults to depression’ phase of which Darrel so often warned?
Well… there are different types of math
-Honest accounting(the type you and I use)
-Debt Donkey Division(Dividing 1 where the sum equals 1+)
-Fraud Math(Big number fraudsters favorite where the sum equals whatever number favors the fraudsters)
I’ll wager the China debacle is the direct end result of debt-peddlers invoking and pimping Fraud Math.
And then there is Save Face Math, where loses and defaults are simply papered over.
BTW, the link above is to the Vancouver story, not the Kaisa story.
ty
“China Developer Kaisa’s Bonds Plunge After Loan Default”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-02/kaisa-bonds-plunge-as-non-payment-risk-spreads-post-loan-default.html
“Debt at the developer exceeds its equity by 1.2 times, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It had negative cash from operations of 9.4 billion yuan as of June 30, the data show.
Another developer, Agile Property Holdings Ltd., faced a similar situation last year when its chairman was placed under the control of Chinese prosecutors in September, toppling its perpetual dollar-denominated notes. ”
It’s all fun and games until somebody gets their head cut off!
Isn’t that the same kind of math that Enron used?
You know what they say about seeing that first cockroach.
“Clouds Appear In The Crystal Ball For Dallas Real Estate In 2015″
http://www.dallasnews.com/business/columnists/steve-brown/20150101-clouds-appear-in-the-crystal-ball-for-dallas-real-estate-in-2015.ece
“Real Estate Prices Seen Falling As Oil Nosedives”
https://en-maktoob.news.yahoo.com/real-estate-prices-seen-falling-oil-nosedives-062655839.html
“Russias Woes Reveberate In Tel Aviv Capital Market”
http://www.haaretz.com/business/.premium-1.633075
‘Fishman’s Mirland Development, which owns and builds residential and commercial property across Russia, said on Thursday it would not be able to make a 43.9 million-shekel ($11.2 million) payment due at the end of December on its Series Alef and Bet bonds.’
Crater. boo hoo hoo.
Boo hoo is right. Next time price yer life at $60 oil and you’re problems won’t be so severe. It’s kinda like getting a raise and then raising your standard of living vs. keeping it conservative.
“The Global Shakeout From Plunging Oil”
http://www.wsj.com/articles/daniel-yergin-the-global-shakeout-from-plunging-oil-1417386897
Stampede: “Commercial-Property Bond Sales Rise, Loan Standards Fall”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-18/commercial-property-bond-sales-rise-loan-standards-fall.html
Repackaged junk bonds.
Will Fed rate hikes sink gold in 2015?
Keep a low exposure in gold; prices expected to remain depressed in 2015
Narendra Nathan, ET Bureau Dec 29, 2014, 08.00AM IST
In 2014, the US Federal Reserve ended the quantitative easing (QE) programme and began moving towards possible rate hikes. This restricted the returns of gold in dollar terms. At the same time, the RBI withdrew quantitative restrictions like the 80:20 (ie 20% of gold import needs to be compulsorily re-exported). Due to this, the premium on domestic gold vanished and gold price in India fell 8%.
Yeah great advice. Buy only when gold is back above $1600 spot. Is it time to buy Toyota stock yet? Or should I wait til it goes up to $150? Screw that? I should put a limit buy on TM at $200! LOL
And by the same logic I should not buy a house in my OC nabe until the average price doubles!
Oh I torgot this is the HBB and I forgot we were supposed to buy low and sell high.
This chart sure gives the appearance that gold is on the south slope of a bubble. And note that the Fed hasn’t even begun raising interest rates yet.
Be sure to click on the “Max” range of dates for maximum effect.
good morning monday morning qb. How is so cal today? Any open houses on the agenda?
He needs to drive until he can buy. El Centro is probably the right distance.
I may have to keep going on to Albuquerque.
Will you buy gold in 2015 as prices projected to come down?
Big gold investors like Russian Central Bank may sell gold to save rouble
By VM Sathish
Published Saturday, January 03, 2015
World’s longest handmade gold chain now available for pre-booking at all 500 participating jewellery outlets in Dubai. (PATRICK CASTILLO)
The yellow metal market witnessed wide fluctuations in price in 2014. In the New Year, investors can look forward to relatively lower gold price in the international market, as some of the biggest gold investors and gold reserve holders may sell the metal to tide over current financial pressure from lower oil prices.
…
Copper told this story well in advance.
Steel, corn, coal, oil, copper, silver, gold, its getting to be quite the party.
Here’s some commodity charts:
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ALL&p=w1
How Sharpton gets paid to not cry ‘racism’ at corporations
By Isabel Vincent and Melissa Klein
January 4, 2015
Want to influence a casino bid? Polish your corporate image? Not be labeled a racist?
Then you need to pay Al Sharpton.
For more than a decade, corporations have shelled out thousands of dollars in donations and consulting fees to Sharpton’s National Action Network. What they get in return is the reverend’s supposed sway in the black community or, more often, his silence.
http://nypost.com/2015/01/04/how-sharpton-gets-paid-to-not-cry-racism-at-corporations/
CraterRage® Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/UudjWw
The hair doesn’t hide the donkey ears very well.
They haven’t gone away, they are still here and they walk among us.
Foreclosures prompt lawsuits against debt collectors in N.J.
By RICHARD NEWMAN
August 31, 2014
In West Milford, homeowner Paul Onder has been in a stand-off with the Utah-based debt collector Select Portfolio Services for four years over the same question: Who owns the mortgage? He said he hasn’t made a payment on his $450,000 debt consolidation loan since 2010.
“They want me to pay money? Where is that money going?” he said Wednesday in an interview.
Meanwhile, Onder remains in his West Milford home while his standoff with Select Portfolio Services grinds on.
“They are paying my taxes, and they are paying my insurance,” he said. “All they are doing is threatening because they have no leg to stand on.”
http://www.northjersey.com/news/business/foreclosures-go-on-trial-1.1078579?page=all -
http://news.yahoo.com/migrant-flow-us-caribbean-spikes-145024265.html
Whoo-hoo! Rejoice, Comrade Pelosi! A new wave of Democrat-on-Arrival (DOA) voters is en route. Our DNC permanent supermajority with its stress on “fairness” and “redisribution of the wealth” (except for that of Nancy’s fellow oligarchs) draws ever closer! Our glorious collectivist future is at hand!
I do hope the government starts providing some oversight of the Fed.
You create a central bank. Give it a broad mandate. Allow politicians to sell themselves for money, diverting their attention from legislation and oversight to fundraising. You get an unelected massively powerful institution with little to no oversight, and it inexorably morphs into a central planner, taking up ever larger percentages of GDP. And it doesn’t cede power willingly, ever.
And yet the people at the central bank/planner are just normal people. Former top executives of financial firms. People who use the revolving door to improve their own circumstances.
I do realize the CFPB is in the central bank. But when former top industry lobbyists are appointed heads of agencies regulating those industries (FCC, FDA, etc), the government is under regulatory capture, and no regulatory agency is going be able to reliably carry out its mission, if it threatens the profits of a well-connected industry.
I do hope the government starts providing some oversight of the Fed.
Your innocense is touching.
“And yet the people at the central bank/planner are just normal people.”
Wrong! We are anointed people.
“Former top executives of financial firms.”
Wrong again! There is nothing “former” about us; We still work for the firms we left, just in another capacity.
“People who use the revolving door to improve their own circumstances.”
The American dream, brought to life.
“As long as the music is playing, you’ve got to get up and dance.”
Citi CEO before last crash
Back to work tomorrow for many of us. Expecting the gym to get New Year Resolution bodies in them the next couple of weeks. That’s the part regulars roll their eyes about.
And you? How about kicking that refined sugar habit? No added sugar, not even artificial. Feel younger and awake immediately.
they will be there a couple weeks and disappear again.
I went Paleo a few months ago, and other than a few lapses around Christmas, have mostly cut out sugar and, more painfully, all forms of alcohol, including red wine. Will tighten up even further in the new year.
OK, so they were mega-lapses, but hey, it was Christmas!
I too cut out sugar and white foods.
A can or sardines makes for an excellent source of protein in a spinach and feta salad.
Stay away from GMO wheat and corn if ya can.
and watch this if you are not already eating the best food you can afford: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1286537/
Exercise, veggies, fruit, grains, olive oil, red wine, greek yogurt, avoid refined sweets. This regimen makes me feel better and has been found to slow down DNA damage due to aging and increase longevity:
http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/12/mediterranean-diet-has-marked-impact-on-aging/
Interesting! I’ll look into the Greek Yogurt. I do vegan three days a week but mostly eat salmon. And every once in awhile gotta have that awesome steak.
Lots of water too helps keep your skin young.
By eliminating sugar and not eating refined flours / white breads and stuff during morning or at lunch, you avoid that 2pm drowsiness. I last was drowsy in the afternoons about a year ago. Eliminate refined flours completely. Whole grains at dinner is good. I can eat a whole grain sandwich at lunch and not get the drowsys.
I think you’re on the right track Bill. Complex carbs are much better than simple carbs, not only for avoiding drowsiness but also for preventing diabetes. I forget to mention nuts — nuts and olive oil provide a lot of protein and beneficial fats. High fiber, low glycemic index foods plus exercise appear to contribute to longevity and well-being from what I’ve read.
I may have joked before - responding to “Lola” but I do look younger than my age, and that’s mostly from exercising the last 38 years. Jack LaLanne was right. He did not have the sciences. But the sciences took decades to end up in agreement with what he was saying. Whole foods, no artificial ingredients, etc. I only wish I did the nutrition thing decades ago along with my exercise.
An ol girlfriend of mine got stage 4 cancer last year. Kidney. She’s lucky to be alive today, due to surgery, chemo, and radiation. She’s in her 50s and younger than me. But she was sedentary and ate whatever she ate. She has a very spiritual, positive, liberal, outgoing personality and fun to be with but you cannot fight diseases on personality alone.
She told her facebook friends that they should get regular checkups. If she did, her situation would have been minor, but turned major.
Her situation made me take a good look at my diet.
January 2, 2015
Scientific team sounds the alarm on sugar as a source of disease
A little late with the alarm. Good book from 1975:
Sugar Blues (1975) by William Dufty
+1
You feel better from day 1 of kicking the added sugar habit. You feel younger and more alive. Shop the perimeter of grocery stores (except for steel cut oats, olive oil, nuts, whole grains).
The orange-faced crybaby, after years of blustering against abominations like Obamacare and endless budget ceiling raises, only to fold like a cheap suit, is getting a Republican challenger who cites a growing rejection among the still-tiny minority of non-sheep who are fed up with the status quo.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/228429-gohmert-announces-challenge-to-boehner
GOP proposes raising gasoline taxes
http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/incoming-senate-chairman-gas-tax-increase-on-table/ar-BBhvtzC
Establishment GOP trotting out the same threadbare losers to “challenge” their (and the oligarchy’s) Annointed One, Jeb Bush.
http://www.politico.com/story/2015/01/mike-huckabee-ends-talk-show-weighs-presidential-run-113948.html
The oil price drop has created an incredible number of winners on the world economic stage. Who says falling prices are always bad?
Indian Bonds Post Weekly Gain as Oil Drop Seen Easing Inflation
By Shikhar Balwani Jan 2, 2015 4:05 AM PT
Ten-year sovereign bonds rose this week, snapping a two-week decline, as plunging oil prices reduced India’s inflation risk and led to optimism the central bank will lower interest rates.
Brent crude traded near its lowest closing price since mid-2009 after sinking 48 percent in 2014 as U.S. producers and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries ceded no ground in their battle for market share amid a supply glut. Ten-year notes, which capped their biggest annual advance since 2008 on Dec. 31, will extend gains this year as the Reserve Bank of India embarks on the most aggressive policy easing in five years, a Bloomberg survey showed this week.
The yield on the 8.4 percent securities due July 2024, the current 10-year benchmark, slid 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, from Dec. 26 to 7.87 percent in Mumbai, prices from the RBI’s trading system show. That’s the biggest weekly drop since the five days ended Dec. 12. The rate fell one basis point today. The rupee advanced this week.
“Expectations of an interest-rate cut have buoyed the bond markets,” said Paresh Nayar, head of currency and money markets at FirstRand Ltd. in Mumbai. “Oil prices continue to improve the inflation outlook for India.”
…
ft dot com
The Big Read
December 15, 2014 8:20 pm
Winners and losers of oil price plunge
Chris Giles
Inflation and strong dollar could curb global economic impact
Suddenly the world is awash with oil. A surprise surge in production and weaker than expected global demand for crude have sent oil reserves soaring and prices tumbling. The 40 per cent drop in the oil price to around $60 a barrel since June is by far the biggest shock for the global economy this year. Similar episodes in the past tell us the consequences are likely to be both profound and long lasting. Normally, economists would add “positive” to this list, but doubts are surfacing as never before.
The scale of the current oil shock is difficult to exaggerate. While financial markets and commentators were obsessed by rising geopolitical tensions and the latest twists in central banks’ policies in the US, Europe and Japan, even larger forces in oil markets went largely unnoticed. As late as October, a “key concern” of the International Monetary Fund was the risk of an oil price spike caused by geopolitical tensions. Instead, rising production and weaker demand growth have left suppliers competing to find willing customers.
Rich country stocks of crude oil have defied the onset of the northern hemisphere winter and risen to their highest level in two years, according to the International Energy Agency. West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices dropped from more than $100 a barrel in June to less than $60, with the European Brent oil prices following the same downward path. Even a slight uptick yesterday cannot disguise the downward trajectory of the price.
…
Energy 12/31/2014 @ 9:36AM
Michael Lynch Contributor
The Conspiracy Behind The Oil Price Collapse (Satire)
A host of conspiracies have been touted to explain 2014′s oil price drop, from the US desire to hurt Russia, to the Saudis attack on US shale producers, not to mention both countries’ antagonism to Iran. Some have even suggested it was aimed at blocking a gas pipeline from Iran to Europe, and one pundit suggested that he was responsible: traders listened to him, and shorted oil.
So, ignoring the usual suspects like the Freemasons, the Bavarian Illuminati, the Jesuits, communists, capitalists, speculators and so forth, allow me to put forth some alternative concepts. Any or all of the following seem as likely to be culprits as some of the more mundane theories.
Naturally, FoxNews must be playing a role here. But why would they want low oil prices now? With the 2016 election coming up, they realize that a booming economy would improve the chances of Hilary Clinton’s election, and having her become president would be the biggest boost to their ratings, a development rather like the way Dan Quayle’s nomination made the nation’s comedians wet their pants.
And think of a company which proved its long reach and influence last year. Yes, that’s right, Lego. Who else could convince Hollywood to make a movie starring its only product? Which is made of plastic, derived from, you guessed it, petroleum. Coincidence?
In 2009, Jeff Rubin explained that peak oil would make our world a lot smaller, with scarce supplies and higher prices ending the practice of shipping food long distances. Say goodbye to your fresh salmon, he warned. Well, that’s a pretty strong clue, but even more, there are rumors that Saudi Oil Minister Naimi, visiting Venezuela, was served orange-glazed salmon. And the chef was reported to have wavy brown hair, just like a senior official in the Pacific salmon industry. What are the odds? Could it be that Naimi was served undercooked fish in an effort to render his mood uncooperative?
…
ft dot com > World > US >
US Politics & Policy
January 4, 2015 3:24 pm
Obama sets stage for debate over US oil export ban
Barney Jopson
The Obama administration has set the stage for a fierce debate over a US ban on crude oil exports by allowing more overseas sales of lightly processed oil as it grapples with the consequences of cheap crude.
Last week’s decision will push the US’s 40-year-old export ban up the political agenda as environmental concerns over shale production crosscut with rising tensions between US producers and Saudi Arabia over the falling price of oil.
Critics of the crude export ban — including oil industry executives and some Republicans — say it is a 1970s anachronism that should be scrapped as the US faces a glut of shale oil, which has undercut the global market by reducing US import needs.
The benchmark Brent crude price has more than halved since June to under $58 per barrel and now threatens the economic viability of some US shale production.
…
“Pervasive appraisal fraud”
It’s getting attention. You better hope you weren’t involved in it.
Are Chinese investors driving up prices in your local housing market?
Chinese investors flock to Miami’s real estate market
January 1, 2015
New York isn’t the only U.S. city looking to cash in on China’s real estate investors. Miami is also laying out the red carpet. CCTV America’s Nitza Soledad Perez reported this story from Miami.
Chinese investors are slowly coming to the shores of Miami. While they lag far behind the Latin American and European investors who dominate the real estate market scene in South Florida, brokers and realtors are ready for that to change. They have braced themselves for a Chinese investment surge in Miami properties.
…
Why Chinese Millionaires Are Investing in Chicago Real Estate
Chinese buyers who have been snapping up high-end properties in the United States are finally finding Chicago.
By Ian Spula
Published Dec. 22, 2014
When Chicago real estate broker Susan Tjarksen attended a local industry event in the summer of 2013, she wasn’t surprised to be asked her thoughts on buying property in this city. What did surprise her was who was doing the asking.
Her questioner was a broker who had traveled, alone, from Hong Kong. “She was very analytic in her approach, just looking to learn more about the market,” recalls Tjarksen, a principal at real estate brokerage Kiser Institutional Group.
Over the next 18 months, says Tjarksen, that Hong Kong broker facilitated $30 million of local residential deals for her clients, nearly all of whom were from China, a place that, until recently, had invested little in Chicago properties.
…
New York City brokers take luxury listings to Shanghai’s super rich
By Holly Dutton
9:00 am, December 12, 2014
By Holly Dutton
Hannah Han in China
With the explosion of Chinese buyers in the U.S. residential market, two TOWN brokers are jumping on the trend, attending a luxury property showcase in Shanghai.
According to research from the National Association of Realtors, China accounted for $12.8 billion of the $68.2 billion in foreign real estate transactions in the US last year.
So far this year, Chinese buyers have accounted for 24 percent of the market share, an increase from a 19 percent share last year.
The Asian nation is the second largest economy in the world and there are over 350,000 millionaires currently living in Shanghai.
…
Penta Asia
China’s Hunt For Overseas Real Estate Yield
Forget Manhattan, Chinese buying properties abroad are scouring cities from Melbourne to Manchester.
By Abby Schultz
Dec. 5, 2014 1:54 a.m. ET
If you’ve been wondering whether the China-fueled rise of real estate prices in cities like New York, Sydney and London is going to slow, think again. The trend is only likely to get deeper and broader as smaller developers and wealthy investors follow state-owned enterprises and big property companies into the market, and as they fan out to buy properties in second-tier global cities like Seattle, Melbourne and Manchester.
Sovereign wealth funds, banks, large developers and insurance companies have largely been behind the surge in overseas real estate investments from China, with total investments hitting US$12 billion in 2013, up from only US$600 million in 2009, property consultant Knight Frank says in a recent report.
Investments from China’s ultra-high net worth individuals – those with at least US$30 million in net assets –have played a part too so far, and their involvement is expected to increase steadily in the coming years, says Thomas Lam, a senior director at Knight Frank.
Some purchases by wealthy Chinese buyers have been high-profile, notably Soho China CEO Zhang Xin’s partnership with Brazil’s Safra for a 40% stake in the General Motors Building in Manhattan, as well as Zhang’s $26 million purchase of a Manhattan townhouse, which was reported by the Wall Street Journal a year ago.
Many others, though, have been quieter. China’s wealthy often prefer to keep their real estate purchases out of the public eye, so their influence on the market likely is under-reported, says James Shepherd, executive director at Cushman & Wakefield, which reported on China outbound real estate investment in October.
…
U should take a drive up to arcadia and give us a report on the amount of chinese investors in town.
When do you think the chinese central bank will unload all those treasuries? When will they have enough gold reserves piled up?
Will there come a time when they dont need to peg and keep mopping up the dollars?
There is money to made in there somewhere.
Are you sure Poet?
Arcadia, CA Sale Prices Crash 20% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/arcadia-ca/home-values/
do your homework pilgrim!
Exactly Poet. Study the data.
$2 billion and counting: Chinese shake up Puget Sound region’s real estate market in a big way
Dec 15, 2014, 12:49pm PST Updated: Dec 17, 2014, 8:28am PST
Marc Stiles
Staff Writer- Puget Sound Business Journal
Wealthy Chinese are sinking billions of dollars into Puget Sound area real estate, and by doing so they’re making a clearcut business case for protecting the environment and spending money on education.
The influx of foreign buyers, mostly Chinese, was one of the top real estate stories of the 2014. It’s not just that many foreign nationals are buying here. Rather, it’s how they’re executing transactions, with some paying all cash for pricey assets.
Experts predict that the trend will continue. According to the National Association of Realtors, China has more than 2 million millionaires, and that 47 percent plan to move out of the country in the next five years.
…
Business
Homesellers are hoping for a (ca-ching) green Christmas
Dec. 13, 2014
Updated Dec. 15, 2014 9:44 a.m.
PAUL RODRIGUEZ, STAFF PHOTOGRAPHER
BY MARILYN KALFUS / STAFF WRITER
…
Some economic and global factors suggest there could be especially good reasons to accelerate plans to purchase or sell homes this winter instead of waiting until the traditionally busier spring and summer homebuying seasons.
With the Federal Reserve Bank pulling back its support for the economy, interest rates are expected to increase at some point in 2015, though last year’s forecast for rising rates did not pan out. The Fed has kept short-term interest rates near zero since 2008.
“The Federal Reserve ended QE3… this means there will be pressure in coming months for interest rates to rise,” said Scot Campbell, a broker at Coldwell Banker-Campbell Realtors in Huntington Beach. “Savvy buyers want to purchase while interest rates are low.”
Some agents also cite a U.S./China visa agreement that took effect in November. The changes allow multiple entry visas spanning 10 years to be issued for business travelers and tourists and five years for students. China already represents one of the fastest sources of international real estate buyers, according to the National Association of Realtors, and the latest visa policy should encourage even more Chinese citizens to invest in real estate in Southern California, the agents say.
…
Hmmm…. cowboys and lions halftime and the posts get pushed through.
Coincidence or youre a cowboys fan Jonesy.
I had to go to the grocery store.
I probably haven’t watched an entire pro football game in 20 years. I don’t have TV at home but I’ll see a bit in a restaurant or in the hotel. The HD makes those tattoo’s really stand out. The new camera angles are interesting, but I liked pro ball better when clothes-lining was legal and you could hit the quarterback and the players didn’t have women’s hairstyles.
“I probably haven’t watched an entire pro football game in 20 years.”
Same.
I felt really odd last week at the Lil Sis’s house, watching my BIL and my nephew keep their arses glued to the couch while the rest of the family dined together.
Do you have to manually look at every post before it shows up?
Jerry Jones must have the Zebras on the payroll.
http://www.reddit.com/r/todayilearned/comments/2rb4tt/til_52_of_americans_cant_afford_the_house_that/
I wish I had a nickel for each time I ever heard a Californian tell me, “We couldn’t afford to buy the home we live in.” I’d even be wealthy enough to buy one of those homes myself!
The affordability of houses was much better in the 1990’s IMHO. I think the dirty little secret is that low interest rates have helped the minority of the 99%’ers. I mean, nowadays, everyone thinks their McCrap shack is that special snowflake.
A friend of a friend bought a townhouse in Redondo Beach around 1990 with over-the-roof ocean blue view for $250,000. Back then I thoyght $250k was too dam expensive. First time I ever visited the area. Little did I know I would live in Torrance for 8 years near the border of Torrance and RB about starting 14 years later. I was struck by how hard it was to find parking in the beach city. I was not really impressed. My $96,000 house had much more space and instead of the ocean view, a view of Owens Peak, which had several months of snow on top every year. All that commotion at the beach was not for me. Besides I was young and had all sorts of girls chasing me where I lived. Had enough fun girls without having to go to L.A.
Oil has resumed its slide into the first full trading week in 2015.
How low will it go before bottoming out: $25/bbl? $15/bbl?
Only time will tell.
DOWN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Crude Oil - Electronic (NYMEX) Feb 2015
NMN: CLG5
Market closed $51.57
Change -$1.12 -2.13%
Volume 27,235
Jan 5, 2015 2:02 a.m.
Previous close $52.69
Day low $51.40
Day high $52.73
Open: $52.61
52 week low $51.40
52 week high $101.33
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/crude%20oil%20-%20electronic
Market closed $51.57
Wow! Sub-fifty soon, I’m guessing!
Futures Movers
Oil futures down after hitting fresh multiyear lows
Published: Jan 4, 2015 11:48 p.m. ET
By Michael Kitchen
Asia editor
LOS ANGELES (MarketWatch) — Oil futures slid further downhill in electronic trade early Monday, with a rising dollar helping weigh on the commodity.
Benchmark Nymex crude futures for February (CLG5, -1.92%) fell by 93 cents, or 1.8%, to $51.76 a barrel on the Globex platform.
The contract — which lost 1.1% in New York Mercantile Exchange action Friday — traded as low as $51.40 earlier in the day, according to Reuters data, marking the weakest level for a front-month Nymex oil future since mid 2009.
Rival benchmark Brent North Sea crude (LCOG5, -1.74) retreated 87 cents, or 1.5%, to $55.55 a barrel, extending a 0.2% drop on Friday.
It too touched its lowest price since mid 2009 earlier in the day, Reuters said.
The moves came as the euro (EURUSD, -0.43%) retreated sharply, helping send the ICE U.S. dollar index up 0.4% for the day to 91.45, according to FactSet.
A rising U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated crude more expensive to holders of euros, yen and other units, often depressing demand for the futures.
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Why do some market watchers always see a stock market crash right around the corner?
Quant work suggests a stock market crash is looming
Published: Jan 2, 2015 2:40 p.m. ET
By Thomas H. Kee Jr.
The observations below are based exclusively on quant work that relates to this past December. I have published preliminary findings already, but now that December has come to an end, this is a summary observation.
The observations I am making below compare each December since the turn of the century to December of 2014 to attempt to identify similarities. Although my first observation was to attempt to identify where the market would stop falling and how much the market would bounce after it stopped falling, this one now shifts to what this past December might mean for 2015.
2014 was the third weakest December on record since the turn of the century and only 2007 and 2002 were weaker than 2014. Reasonably, the market wasn’t down much in 2014, but that doesn’t change its place in this observation.
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Shorts have got hammered the past 6 years. There just doesn’t seem to be much support if there is huge momentum to the downside.
I feel the market could go down 30% overnight.
I think people are just holding their noses and buying. That has been the strategy over the years. Even know they know it will end badly they have just been riding the momentum. They think stop loss orders and puts and whatever downside insurance they can dream up will save them cause the insurance is cheap. Everyone is on the same side of the trade.
AZ
I agree. It seems like the big funds think they can escape quickly once they realize the markets are turning.
They haven’t realized what can go wrong in a nano second.
YET.
I’m not on the same side. This kind of market puts me in the. mood for a long hibernation.
Let’s see, can we continue a steady climb in stock prices simply because we have the past 30 odd years (minus the 2001-2009 time frame where equity money was dead money)?
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=VTI+Interactive#{%22range%22%3A%22max%22%2C%22scale%22%3A%22linear%22}
Low interest rates, check
Oil prices down, check
Employment climate mediocre, check
?
The Fed
Fed rate increases may be bumpy for markets: Rosengren
Published: Jan 3, 2015 7:17 p.m. ET
By Greg Robb
Senior economics reporter
Bloomberg News
Eric Rosengren, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
BOSTON (MarketWatch)—Low long-term interest rates signal that the Federal Reserve’s coming increases could be bumpy for investors, Eric Rosengren, the president of the Boston regional branch of the U.S. central bank, said Saturday.
The 10-year bond’s current 2.15% yield is “not a rate that is going to be sustainable in a completely normalized economy, which does imply the 10-year rate at some point in the normalization process will not be as low as it currently is,” Rosengren told the American Economic Association.
That indicates that there may be “bumpier ride” than the prior two Fed tightening cycles in 1994 and 2004 “just because there needs to be an adjustment at some point along the cycle,” Rosengren said.
The Boston Fed president also noted that it is also “unusual” how much the stock market has risen before the first rate increased compared with the last two periods.
Offsetting concerns about possible volatility is that the Fed can afford to be “patient” in tightening because inflation is so low, he said.
“As long as we’re experiencing very low inflation, there is no reason for the path[of rate hikes] to be particularly abrupt,” Rosengren said.
Mark Gertler, an expert on monetary policy at New York University, told the same panel that the Fed funds rate could reach 4%-5% over a two-year period once the central bank starts tightening.
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Craterus…. Craterus Maximus. He induces rage.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craterus
LOL^
4 January 2015 Last updated at 09:04 ET
Greece must ‘abide’ by bailout terms - Germany
Greek pensioners protest in Athens, 18 Dec 14 Pensioners are among the angriest groups after years of painful austerity
The German government expects Greece to uphold the terms of its international bailout agreement, a spokesman for Chancellor Angela Merkel has said.
But spokesman Georg Streiter declined to comment on reports that Berlin is now content that the eurozone could withstand Greece’s exit from the bloc.
Greece is holding a general election later this month, and anti-austerity party Syriza is ahead in the polls.
Syriza wants to renegotiate the terms of its international bailout.
Under those terms, the so-called troika - EU, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank - supported Greece with the promise of €240bn (£188bn) in return for budget cuts and economic reforms.
“Greece has fulfilled its obligations in the past. The German government assumes it will continue to fulfil its contractual obligations to the troika,” Mr Streiter told reporters.
“Every new government has to abide by the contractual obligations of the previous government.”
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Investing 12/30/2014 @ 11:56AM
Eurozone Chaos And Contagion Are Coming
Stephen Pope, Contributor
The Greek Prime Minister, Antonis Samaras, has not enjoyed a restful Christmas and he is unlikely to have a Happy New Year. Despite working every connection he had in a last-ditch attempt to appeal to national parliamentarians, his Presidential nominee, Stavros Dimas failed to secure the requisite number of votes in the third and final ballot.
Consequently Samaras was obliged to call a snap general election for Sunday, January 25th 2015 that has the potential power to plunge the Eurozone into another crisis to accompany the lack of GDP growth and inflation.
The national opinion polls have been slightly drifting away from the radical left-wing Syriza although they would still be the largest party and have the first opportunity to forge a coalition government.
In the aftermath the yield on the Greek three year sovereign bond moved from 10.827 percent at 10:35 GMT on the 29th when vote result was announced to 12.464 percent by 07:00 GMT on the 30th. There was a brief rally to 12.189 percent, however, the recovery has proven short-lived as by 15:10 GMT the yield was at 13.198 percent before finding a few buyers to take the yield back under 13 percent. Still the spectre of a “GREXIT” is being stirred once again.
No contagion so far
During 2009, 2010 and 2011 when Greece was undergoing a similar fright over capital flight and Eurozone exit the pain was being transferred to other elements of the so called PIIGS…Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain. However, the panic appears to be confined to Greece … for now.
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China’s house prices keep falling
Esther Fung
The Wall Street Journal
January 02, 2015 12:00AM
China’s housing crisis deepens
CHINA’S new-home prices fell at a faster pace in December than the month before, as property developers offered more discounts to boost sales, suggesting that a recovery in the housing market still may be some way off.
Month on month, average new-home prices fell 0.44 per cent in December, picking up pace from the 0.38 per cent decline in November, data provider China Real Estate Index System said.
December is the eighth straight month that has seen lower new-home prices than the previous month.
Year over year, average new-home prices fell 2.69 per cent in December, a bigger decline than the 1.57 per cent drop in November, the data provider said.
Of the 100 cities surveyed, 70 showed a decline in home prices, down from 76 in November.
China’s home prices may still face downward pressure in 2015 because of high inventory levels, despite efforts to improve market sentiment.
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Rebuild planned for 15-year-old, $225 million, Detroit runway that is disintegrating
ROMULUS – The $225 million runway that opened in 2001 at Detroit Metropolitan Airport is deteriorating well ahead of its expected life of 30 years because of a common problem with concrete used in recent years, authorities say.
Airport crews have been making frequent repairs to the cracks and other flaws in the concrete, airport spokesman Mike Conway told the Detroit Free Press for a story Sunday.
The cost is expected to be far less than the original cost of building the runway, said Jeffrey Warkoski, a consultant on the project. He said similar repairs at Denver International Airport have cost $10 million to $30 million per runway.
The Detroit airport runway is affected by a process called alkali/silica reaction, or ASR. It causes concrete to expand and crack when exposed to moisture over time.
“The cement manufacturing industry has increasingly been under pressure to reduce their levels of harmful emissions into the atmosphere,” said department spokesman Jeff Cranson. “This prompted them to modify their manufacturing process to incorporate a portion of the highly alkaline cement kiln dust back into their final product.”
A spokesman said the concrete industry is aware of the problem.
“We have some projects … that are not performing like they’re supposed to do,” said Daniel DeGraaf, executive director and chief executive officer of the Michigan Concrete Association. “It’s not our proudest moment.”
Not their ‘proudest moment’ but they cashed their checks anyway.
Slow China Growth, Uneven Global Recovery Hampers Singapore’s Economy
By Sharon Chen
Jan 1, 2015 5:00 PM PT
Singapore’s economy expanded less than economists estimated last quarter after its manufacturing industry weakened with slowing growth in China and an uneven global recovery.
Gross domestic product rose an annualized 1.6 percent in the three months to Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it expanded 3.1 percent, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The median of five estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 3 percent expansion.
Singapore’s productivity growth has been weak, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Dec. 31, and the trade ministry has said the economic outlook for 2015 is “modest” with a tight labor market restraining some industries. The export-dependent island is also adjusting to a China on track to record its weakest full-year growth in almost a quarter century, even as the U.S. saw its biggest expansion in more than a decade in the third quarter.
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What to do if you can’t reach your goal?
Plan A: MOVE THE GOALPOSTS
World News
China Faces Tough Adjustments as It Adapts to ‘New Normal’ in 2015
Beijing’s Tug-of-War Between Growth and Reform to Continue as Economy Slows
Weaning China’s economy from its dependence on government spending will require tougher choices about what the country builds. Above, Shanghai’s financial district. Reuters
By Mark Magnier
Updated Dec. 30, 2014 4:08 p.m. ET
HARBIN, China—The main highway heading southwest from this provincial capital is an underused, four-lane thoroughfare through empty fields, past largely empty residential towers. Billboards along its shoulder advertise developments with names such as “Home Magic Pacific” and “Belle Epoch.” Beyond lies a region of bloated state-owned companies and inefficient mines.
This is a snapshot—visible in communities across China—of the world’s second-largest economy as it loses altitude after decades of highflying expansion. This year will see tough adjustments as China adapts to what leaders call the new normal of slower growth.
Most countries release economics projections and see how they bear out. China sets annual targets that cadres are expected to meet. In past years, the growth target was met handily. This time, China will likely miss its 2014 benchmark of about 7.5%—the first shortfall since 1998—and is expected to set 2015’s target as low as 7.0%, reducing the need for fiscal and monetary stimulus and for browbeating local officials into hitting the mark.
There is general agreement on the economic steps China must take to further improve citizens’ lives, maintain sustainable growth and boost its global role. These include shifting from heavy government spending to consumption and services; moving low-end manufacturing into high-end production; and automating and innovating as labor costs rise.
Pulling this off remains a challenge. China’s size, social problems and the potential cost to short-term growth raise the stakes for a stability-obsessed leadership concerned that higher unemployment could spark social unrest and threaten its grip on power.
Expect the coming year to bring a continued tug of war between growth and reform in the fiscal and monetary arenas. Beijing’s strategy will likely be marked by easier credit and higher spending when the economy slows more than expected, and a more focused, disciplined stance when growth momentum cooperates.
Most indications are that growth will weaken in 2015. Years of unsold inventory in real estate—a sector that accounts for a quarter of gross domestic product when related industries are included—weigh heavily amid weak domestic and global demand.
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Plan B: INFLATE THE RESULTS
Plan C: HIDE YOUR LOSSES