Bits Bucket for January 5, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
About Me
Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Region VIII
Whatever Region you are in it is good to know that the border is wide open but immigration agencies are cracking down on unauthorized women’s underwear.
700 miles of U.S.-Mexico border still insecure, congressional investigators say
Immigration agency nabbed counterfeit lingerie instead of illegal immigrants
by Stephen Dinan | The Washington Times | January 5, 2015
Less than 3 percent of illegal immigrants will ever be deported, and more than 700 miles of the U.S.-Mexico border remained unsecured as of 2014, according to Sen. Tom Coburn’s final oversight report released Saturday morning, which found the Homeland Security Department failing in several of its top missions.
The report also said corruption is a serious problem in the Border Patrol, but said agency officials actually told internal affairs investigators to cut down on the number of cases they were pursuing, according to the former division head.
In another finding Mr. Coburn’s staff on the Senate Homeland Security Committee found mission creep to be a problem: agents at one immigration agency spent time cracking down on women’s lingerie that they believed infringed on Major League Baseball’s officially licensed logos. The agents raided a lingerie store in Kansas City, Mo., flashed their badges and confiscated 18 pairs of underwear marked with an unauthorized Kansas City Royals logo, Mr. Coburn’s investigators found.
Mr. Coburn said that agency, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, should spend more time focusing on illegal immigrants and less time on property issues like women’s underwear.
The agents are obviously Feminist Boyfriends. A macho man would lobby for legislation unauthorizing all women’s underwear.
I think they need to get to the bottom of this.
Keep me abreast of the issue.
I will climb the Tetons to find the answers.
How much do you think these asset bubbles are in regards to producing tax revenues? Is that a reason they are supported?
It’s the most likely reason.
People realizing gains on stocks (I resemble that remark), and retired people taking distributions of traditional 401ks and traditional IRAs, taxed as ordinary income.
It certainly helps keep real estate tax revenues high to pump up housing.
Attention housing bubble areas of Texas (cough - Houston and Austin - cough).
This is the pin touching the bubble…
—————–
Plunging Oil Prices Test Texas’ Economic Boom
Wall Street Journal | Jan. 4, 2015 | JON HILSENRATH, ANA CAMPOY and BEN LEUBSDORF
Retired Southwest Airlines co-founder Herb Kelleher remembers a Texas bumper sticker from the late 1980s, when falling energy prices triggered an ugly regional downturn: “Dear Lord, give me another boom and I promise I won’t screw it up.”
Texas got its wish with another energy-driven boom, and now plunging oil prices are testing whether the state has held up its end of the bargain.
The Lone Star State’s economy has been a national growth engine since the recession ended, expanding at a rate of 4.4% annually between 2009 and 2013, twice the pace of the U.S. as a whole.
The downturn in energy prices now has triggered a debate over whether Texas simply got lucky in recent years, thanks to a hydraulic-fracturing oil-and-gas boom, or whether it hit on an economic playbook that other states, and the country as a whole, could emulate.
Now that oil prices have plunged nearly 51% from their June peak to $52.69 a barrel, some Texans sobered by memories of past energy busts are bracing for a fall. The argument among economists and business leaders isn’t whether the state will be hurt, but how badly.
Why did Obama wait until his sixth year in office to lower gas prices?
For many of the things he is doing to lower prices (temporarily) you need a national security excuse to engage in and Russia gives that excuse. Of course, setting prices by fiat does not work over a protracted time period. Selling lots of paper barrels and manipulating the dollar can only buy you a short period of time. Of course, he wanted this fall to occur prior to the election but the market just would not cooperate.
Craig Pirrong
The Oil Price Decline: No Conspiracy Theories Need Apply
Jan. 1, 2015 10:31 AM ET
2014 is in the books, and fittingly, the last day of the year saw a fall in the price of oil. The nearly 50 percent decline in oil prices from the end of June to today was the biggest commodities story of the year. This decline has spawned numerous conspiracy theories, which, like most conspiracy theories, are pure bunk.
Most of the stories focus on Saudi Arabia and shale oil. In some versions, the Saudis decided to crash the price of oil to drive out competition from US shale production. I analyzed, and dismissed, this story some weeks back. In other versions, the Saudis decided to crash the price of oil in order to strike a blow at its arch enemy Iran, or in some variants, at Iran and Russia (either in cahoots with the US, or to punish Russia for its support of Assad).
…
I think the oil price decline is the unwinding of a commodities bubble made possible by a zero interest rate policy.
They ( Bankers plus China building too much) bet on inflation with the cheap money. Worked for awhile.
Treasury bubble next and once that blows we are in for a very bad time.
mmmmmmm… not really.
Get these interest rates back up to 10-14% where they should be and watch the economy take off in a hurry.
“Get these interest rates back up to 10-14% where they should be and watch the economy take off in a hurry.”
After the treasury market blows up you may have your wish.
Like the economy took off in the ’70s?
It sure did. Would you prefer the collapse of the 2000-2014 era?
Name one policy obama supported that lead to deceasing oil prices.
Except, of course, creating the largest recession since WWII and prolonging it by all means necessary…
Zero interest rates.
Ben, could you explain how zero interest rates inflated house prices and yet deflated oil prices?
How does six years of zero interest rates lead to lowering of oil prices?
Since ZIPR we have seen record oil prices (as recently as 8 months ago). Interest rates have not changed yet oil has dropped by 50%.
Over production, excessive debt-based risk taking. It’ll be the same with housing.
“Gosh, Janet, who knew there’s all these unforeseen consequences?”
Ben, could you explain how zero interest rates inflated house prices and yet deflated oil prices?
Until Ben has time, let me do a quick explanation. Low interest rates spiked demand for housing and allowed people that could really not afford a house to buy a house. When you start off with a zero interest rate teaser rare with no principal due, you did not even know that the strawberry picker had lied about his income to buy the million dollar home.
In the capital intensive oil patch low interest rates allowed oil companies to borrow more capital to drill more oil wells and thus increase production.
It’ll be the same with housing.
This is a very very dangerous idea to be spread! The cratering gas prices made the oil collapse real for Joe 6pack. He can believe in the crater in his bones. If that idea cross-pollinates to housing and people really really get it (because it is the exact same mechanism driving both), housing is t o a s t.
Got 50 percent off?
“Got 50 percent off?”
It will be more than that and you know it. You can’t overproduce something for decades and then just settle back into “normal”.
I was using the 50 percent decline in oil as an example. Maybe more for housing? The article showing rents in boom places declining from $1000 to $200 a month was amazing.
Oil is now in the $50 dollars and change range this AM.
“The article showing rents in boom places declining from $1000 to $200 a month was amazing.”
And the mortgages that financed these high rent places? Did they, too, experience an amazing drop?
Over production, excessive debt-based risk taking. It’ll be the same with housing.
So obama, with zero interest rates, creates huge bubbles in housing/energy over six years which drives up these costs to astronomical levels but, in the long run, returns gas prices to just about the average in the Bush Administration.
Wouldn’t have been easier and whole lot less money just to leave these things alone?
“The article showing rents in boom places declining from $1000 to $200 a month was amazing.”
And the mortgages that financed these high rent places? Did they, too, experience an amazing drop?’
Let them contemplate this upon the Tree of Woe…
The central planners never subject themselves to review. They’ll decide what went wrong, and miraculously come to the conclusion that suits more of what they want to do. The problem for the rest of us is, reality will get in the way. Remember when the Fed minutes came out about 2007 and 2008? They were laughing it up. Ho-ho, look at these stupid people. That got reported and deep sixed. We can’t be looking at Janet Yellen as anything but a benevolent Granny who cares about inequality, affordable housing and stuff.
Jeebus, she’s openly saying she wants inflation! We’re all glad gas is a little lower, but at the Fed, they’re perturbed. They wanted inflation; got deflation. Funny how that works.
Hey, Yellen. Stop playing with our lives like we are toys on a board. If you must, just get in your limo every morning and go somewhere and pretend to be doing something useful. We’ll get along fine without you.
You can’t overproduce something for decades and then just settle back into “normal” ??
Overproduce where…Drive till you qualify ?? That lifestyle has been rejected by the millennials..And it is that age group cohort that this type of housing was built for and anticipated to absorb…Oops…
Here is a Sacramento Bee article on it…The numbers are quite striking…Its a titanic shift in how they live compared to prior generations…And, its happening across the country….
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CB4QFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.sacbee.com%2Fnews%2Fbusiness%2Farticle5389560.html&ei=TK2qVMnFEIHcoASDz4KwCA&usg=AFQjCNGhKQiy9QIutx4OIx75ysKSimnlfQ&sig2=ImwJDqKDh-rKwU8iQU8Umg
“Overproduce where”
A silly question considering there are 25 million excess empty houses in the US with 4.4 million of them in your own state of CA.
“Overproduce where…?”
Maybe you don’t see it where you live, but let’s say just about everywhere else.
It’s not just houses 30 miles from any place to work. The standard house costs that I posted yesterday for you were for a “standard” 2,600 ft2 house. Not that long ago a standard house was half that size. That type of overproduction is just as extensive as the number of houses.
‘It also means a new boom in development, especially for market-rate condominiums and apartments but also for new office buildings. After years in which financing for new housing and offices was essentially on hold, it started penciling out in 2014 and there is a boom in new development proposals in nearly every corner of the Peninsula.’
‘Redwood City is already seeing the boom in its downtown with the construction crane replacing the crow as the city’s primary bird. And proposals for the east side of Highway 101 are just around the corner. San Carlos is seeing new development on its east side and that is already causing some trouble with residents there concerned about the impact. Belmont is considering changes to its downtown. San Mateo is seeing a sprinkling of new developments in its downtown along with robust action near the corner of Delaware Street and State Route 92 and south through the former Bay Meadows race track. Burlingame is considering new housing in its downtown and new offices on its Bayfront. Millbrae is in the midst of planning even more development near its BART station with a large-scale multi-use development beginning the planning process. San Bruno has raised its height limits in and near downtown and South San Francisco is moving toward a wide-scale revamp of its downtown.’
Blue Skye nailed it. Only a certain % of people will ever be able to really afford* 3 and 4+ BR single family homes and the commuting costs implied therein. This is especially true because at some point our gov’t will have to reduce subsidies to the energy (gas, oil, and even green energy) industry. And more expensive energy especially hurts people who live further from city centers by driving up the costs of doing basically everything.
Your average “good goyim” consumer thinks taking 20-30 years to pay off a house is just fine (”look, the monthly payments are less than renting!”) and buying a pair of 30k cars on a 100k HH income (or 40k cars on 150k income, etc) is just fine. That’s why the bankers call these people good goyim. In reality, this is just the modern version of slavery. The funny thing is, a lot of these people will rant about “freedom from government” and “gun rights”… but they’ve already enslaved themselves financially to their calculating, devious economic superiors.
* When I say afford, I mean an ability to pay for the housing and upkeep without impacting ability to properly save for retirement, invest, maintain the house, raise children, and so forth. There is a big difference between “affording” something and making payments because you “have to have” something.
‘Only a certain % of people will ever be able to really afford* 3 and 4+ BR single family homes’
Of course at current prices. However, as prices head lower to rental parity, which admittedly is a very long way down, the affordability will be there.
I hope that piano bench has a seatbelt on it because it’s going to be the ride of your life.
Funny how all these things happen just after the election.
Kinda like obama amnesty…
Hope and change kiddies
———–
Obamacare: The Real Pain Starts This Year
American Spectator | 1/5/2015 | David Catron
Obamacare was designed such that its most harmful provisions would not be implemented until after the President had been returned to office for a second term and his Democrat accomplices had been reelected to their congressional seats. Fortunately for the nation, the latter part of that strategy was a spectacular failure. Nonetheless, it did provide the public with a temporary reprieve from the health care law’s most painful exactions. That brief respite is now at an end. This year, you will begin to experience the realities of “reform” first hand and you are not going to like how it feels.
In fact, you are probably already feeling the first twinges without recognizing that their source is Obamacare. If you are among the 150 million Americans who get health insurance through their employers, for example, chances are that the coverage your company offered for 2015 has much higher premiums than did last year’s plan.
“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest” — Kim Jong Un
And he did on spiking the dollar to keep oil down until people realized what it is going to do to corporate profits, we have priced ourselves out of the game. Call it, Putin’s revenge.
the coverage your company offered for 2015 has much higher premiums than did last year’s plan.
Premiums rose every year long before Obamacare was a twinkle in Stanley Ann’s eye.
How unfortunate that the government helped us with that.
Obama Adviser Jonathan Gruber In 2009: Obamacare Will NOT Be Affordable
Patrick Howley
Political Reporter
9:25 AM 12/30/2014
Gruber also said that the only way to control costs is to effectively deny treatment.
“The real substance of cost control is all about a single thing: telling patients they can’t have something they want. It’s about telling patients, ‘That surgery doesn’t do any good, so if you want it you have to pay the full cost.’”
“There’s no reason the American health care system can’t be, ‘You can have whatever you want, you just have to pay for it.’ That’s what we do in other walks of life. We don’t say everyone has to have a large screen TV. If you want a large screen TV, you have to pay for it. Basically the notion would be to move to a level where everyone has a solid basic insurance level of coverage. Above that people pay on their own, without tax-subsidized dollars, to buy a higher level of coverage.”
“I wish that President Obama could have stood up and said, ‘You know, I don’t know if this bill is going to control costs. It might, it might not. We’re doing our best. But let me tell you what it’s going to do…” Gruber said on a San Francisco podcast in 2012.
“If he could make that speech? Instead, he says ‘I’m going to pass a bill that will lower your health care costs.’ That sells. Now, I wish the world was different. I wish people cared about the 50 million uninsured in America…But, you know, they don’t. And I think, once again, I’m amazed politically that we got this bill through.”
dailycaller.com/…/ - 104k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-01-05 11:06:10
Obama Adviser Jonathan Gruber In 2009: Obamacare Will NOT Be Affordable
dailycaller.com/2014/12/30/obama-adviser-jonathan-gruber-in-2009-obamacare-will-not-be-affordable/
If you are among the 150 million Americans who get health insurance through their employers, for example, chances are that the coverage your company offered for 2015 has much higher premiums than did last year’s plan.
Nope. Mine is unchanged from last year.
A friend of mine works for McKesson, he wears a Fitbit that uploads all of his physical activity to the company’s wellness program. As a result, he and his wife pay the lowest of three tiers of price for the employee-paid portion of health insurance premiums, and get “points” to redeem, they just cashed them at the end of the year and got over $700 in Amazon gift cards.
What’s your walkscore?
My company buys KrispyKremes and coffee every morning.
What happens for the reverse? I’d love to see fit people who watch their diet and a generally responsible health wise pay accordingly.
Who is gonna tell the non healthy they have to pay more?
That chocolate cake is gonna cost you an Amazon gift card.
Crater Cake?
http://goo.gl/k6KgcX
Dilemma over deductibles: Costs crippling middle class
USA Today | Janaury 1, 2015 | Laura Ungar and Jayne O’Donnell
Physician Praveen Arla is witnessing a reversal of health care fortunes: Poor, long-uninsured patients are getting Medicaid through Obamacare and finally coming to his office for care. But middle-class workers are increasingly staying away.
“It’s flip-flopped,” says Arla, who helps his father run a family practice in Hillview, Ky. Patients with job-based plans, he says, will say: ” ‘My deductible is so high. I’m trying to come to the doctor as little as possible. … What is the minimum I can get done?’ They’re really worried about cost.”
It’s a deep and common concern across the USA, where employer plans cover 60% of working-age Americans, or about 150 million people. Coverage long considered the gold standard of health insurance now often requires workers to pay so much out-of-pocket that many feel they must skip doctor visits, put off medical procedures, avoid filling prescriptions and ration pills — much as the uninsured have done.
• Medical professionals across the USA see the reality behind the research. The Arlas’ patient load used to be 45% commercially insured and 25% Medicaid; those percentages are now reversed. Stan Brock, founder of Remote Area Medical, which runs free clinics around the nation, says the group’s volunteer workers found that around 7% of patients who came to one of the clinics had job-provided insurance — and some waited for days just to keep a prime spot in line.
Since the ACA took effect, “there’s been an accelerated movement” to these types of health plans, says Brian Marcotte, president and chief executive officer of the Washington, D.C.-based Business Group on Health.
Companies have cited the ACA for cutting medical benefits in other ways. For example, United Parcel Service partly blamed the law when it removed thousands of spouses from its plan because they are eligible for medical coverage elsewhere.
Mine has more than doubled in the last 4 years thanks to Otraumacare!! Same employer - same PPO plan - one less kid on the plan. No longer ‘family’ in the check box and still more than doubled - Thanks Obama - you roiling marxist idiot!!!
I concur. As a very small employer I have suffered for 12 years paying outrageously increasing premiums and only the last couple years have I had to pay minimal increases . The off set too is that I can get a free annual exam and bloodwork and vaccines and not have to pay the deductible first .
I was thinking that a lot of the bickering that occurs on here is because some people think asset values are under or overvalued.
Home prices seem to gradually move with inflation for a long time then it seemed they turned into part of the casino of wall street.
Confidence seems to have been lost cause people really don’t know the true value of assets anymore. Do you guys think this is part of the reason volumes on the exchanges have collapsed and there aren’t a lot of first time home buyers?
“Home prices seem to gradually move with inflation for a long time then it seemed they turned into part of the casino of wall street.”
This might have had something to do with the separating of risk from the reward, as in the passing off the risk and keeping the reward.
The housing market really took off when Wall Street started doing this because all-of-a-sudden a lot of money sprung forth to power higher prices and these higher priced morphed a value-driven market into a price-driven market, and this price-driven market drew in - sucked in - even more money that had its risked passed on and - presto! - a sort-of-a-casino type boom was formed.
That, and an increase in the “how much a month” crowd.
“Home prices seem to gradually move with inflation for a long time then it seemed they turned into part of the casino of wall street.”
They did until about 1990.
By some measures, since the 1070s.
The ratio of median home sale price to household income is above 5:1. In 2000 it was 3:1. In 1990 it was 2:1. In 1980 it was 1:1. In 1970 it was 0.5:1.
http://www.oftwominds.com/blogdec14/buy-house12-14.html
“By some measures, since the 1070s.”
+1 Someone has to pay for LBJ’s Great Society.
“By some measures, since the 1070s.”
+1 Someone has to pay for LBJ’s Great Society.
Both of you must be referring to William the Conqueror’s Great Society.
Mebbe the true value of any asset should be reflected in the broad international stock index funds such as VTIAX. It’s the admiral form of VTGSX. That one’s inception date was 1996. The average annual gain since 1996? 4.61%
5,785 stocks in that index fund. Europe is its biggest sector. Then Asia and then emerging markets, then North America.
I think 4.61% is reasonable valuation gain per year the last 18 years. We have too much government and so do most of those nations in the world. The government is wasteful and cuts into the capital tremendously. I would guess somewhere between 8% and 12% would be the real gain per year of world company stocks otherwise.
VGHCX health care fund
The fund has returned 31.99 percent over the past year, 29.61 percent over the past three years, 20.88 percent over the past five years, and 13.35 percent over the past decade.
That’s an excellent fund. I just have too many funds for now. And I get exposure to the health care sector in my other funds. The inception date of VGHCX is 1984. Can you believe an average annual gain of 17% over those 30 years? Who would have known?
Who would have known?’
Not me I turned it down years ago ( ~2000 ) because I thought it had gone up too much and would stall.
I have this fund VWELX and a REIT fund and cash.
Vwelx is a great fund. I suppose that’s Vanguard’s first fund ever. 1929 inception date and average annual gain above 8%:
Withstood depressions, inflations, demographic lows, demographic highs, WWII and the unjustified wars after WWII, Great fund.
“When you borrow money, you’re in effect betting against, or shorting that currency because you benefit if it goes down in value. But at the same time you’re creating future demand for it because in order to pay off the loan you have to acquire more of that currency. So the fact that so much of the world’s debt is denominated in dollars means that demand for dollars is rising even as US debt increases. In the short run, this makes the dollar stronger despite America’s deteriorating balance sheet. Add in the fact that the rest of the world is in even worse shape than we are, which makes the US look like a safe haven in relative terms, and the result is a strong dollar even in the face of soaring US liabilities.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/2014-in-review-how-the-gold-bugs-were-flummoxed/
I’m trying to visualize a low income person walking into TitleMax, hoping to benefit from shorting American currency.
When you borrow, you’re shorting your own life.
It’s a bet that enjoying the next few decades won’t be worth nearly as much as enjoying today.
It’s a bet that enjoying the next few decades won’t be worth nearly as much as enjoying today.
Eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow you may die.
Or to be more contemporary: YOLO
PMs are quite strong today due to China’s buying.
Funny how we never hear about these things. I guess these real hate crimes don’t matter has the pigmentation was wrong for the victims.
Also funny how the press when it does report these crime - fails to mention certain facts. Almost comical.
—————————————-
Trial for man accused of beating family at gas station set for Monday
WAFB - 1/5/2015
The man accused of a gas station beating two years ago is expected in court on Monday.
Donald Dickerson is facing battery charges after he allegedly beat up a family when they stopped to get gas on Plank Road in May of 2013.
Police arrested Dickerson and ticketed two others. They are all accused of punching the family.
Dickerson allegedly told the family they were in the “wrong neighborhood” before the attack. According to police, one of the victim suffered a broken eye socket, broken nose, and several lacerations to the face.
“If I had a son, he’d look like Trayvon” — President Barack Obama
It makes to no sense to write that we never hear about these things and cite a news story about one of those things.
He means that it isn’t sensationalized.
Who used to sing the song “Dirty Laundry”?
He means that it isn’t sensationalized.
Is that a good thing or a bad thing? Would we benefit from more sensationalized news?
Don Henley fronting the Eagles.
They’ve had Bubbleheaded Bleach Blondes on the evening news as far back as the 80’s and probably before.
I don’t believe he was fronting the Eagles when he sang that song, but other than that I agree with your point.
Ah, you’re right. The Eagles broke up in 1980. Dirty Laundry was a Henley solo hit in 1983.
The end game of socialism.
Well, at least they are all equally dirty and smelly. Except for their progressive overlords - of course.
———————-
“Now There’s Not Even Soap” Maduro Heads To China To ‘Save’ Socialist Utopia Venezuela
Zero Hedge | 1/4/15
Social media is awash with striking images of #EmptyShelvesInVenezuela (#AnaquelesVaciosEnVenezuela) as the evaporation of basic human staples such as toilet paper has now been hyperinflated to total chaos at warehouses and supermarkets. As President Maduro decries the loss of $100 oil “stability”, vowing to return oil prices to their rightful places (and heads to China for help), lines reach for miles for milk and soap… and the people defy governmental bans on photographing empty market shelves… “We couldn’t find shampoo, so we washed our hair with soap. Now there’s not even soap.”
Maybe Sean Penn can fly his private jet down there and give them some sponge baths, LOLZ
Venezuelans have always had a reputation for being utterly incompetent in Latin American circles. It never got that bad in Mexico, not even during its darkest moments. The thing is, unlike Venezuela, Mexico has always had industry besides oil. Also, it didn’t hurt to be close to the USA and to be a net exporter of goods (and surplus people) to “El Norte”.
Apparently brunch is now racist. But like OWS, these protestors really don’t have a point or a goal.
Violent people behaving violently… but only with people who don’t shoot/fight back (liberal New Yawkers). So maybe both sides are learning something.
———————————
Black Protesters Storm NYC Restaurants – Target & Harass White People Eating Brunch
Gateway Pundt | 01/04/15 | Kristinn Taylor
Black protesters targeted white people eating brunch today at New York City restaurants. They joined hands and screamed at white patrons. Posted by Kristinn Taylor on Sunday, January 4, 2015, 1:10 PM
Black protesters targeted white people eating brunch today at New York City restaurants. They joined hands and screamed at white patrons.
“ATTN WHITE Man, I have no guilt disturbing your brunch. Its YOU that has no right to be here. #blackbrunchnyc”
The protesters stormed the restaurants and harassed staff and patrons.
“For the first time in my adult lifetime, I am really proud of my country” — First Lady Michelle Obama
Most liberal New Yorkers, like the lib-Dem collectivists they vote into office, are anti-Second Amendment. Since they choose to be defenseless and terrified in the face of thugs, so be it.
Like I said - maybe both sides are learning something.
“Like I said - maybe both sides are learning something.”
Bahahahahahaha … I love this blog.
(Pssssst … no learning curve exists here.)
Even on this blog, it’s probably safe to say that the vast majority voted for the crony-capitalist status quo in 2008 and 2012, and will do so again in 2016. So you may be onto something, Mr. Banker…perhaps sheep will always be sheep.
This is a self-correcting problem. Sheep will be sheared (or slaughtered). Society will be stronger for those that remain…
Yes - WE CAN!
Chicago did it! They beat last year’s insanely high murder/body count.
Now remember kiddies - Chicago BANS guns. Chicago has been run by democrats for over 50 years. Chicago has implemented every insane progressive law and policy. And Chicago has high taxes.
And, oh yeah, Chicago Police barely solve any of these crimes.
Lord help you if you own a house or business in Chicago.
————————————-
IL:Chicago Homicides for 2014
Gun Watch | 3 January, 2015 | Dean Weingarten
There is an independent site that tracks homicides in Chicago. There are not affiliated with the police, and they use public sources to determine the number of homicides. The numbers that they give include justified homicides and homicides by police.
The numbers are very similar in 2014 to what they were in 2013.
2013 2014
Homicides by shooting 375 388
Woundings by shooting 1810 2231
Total Homicides 455 456
Chicago only has a clearance rate of 30% for homicides.
“As a country, we have been through this too many times. Whether it is an elementary school in New town, or a shopping mall in Oregon, or a temple in Wisconsin, or a movie theater in Aurora, or a street corner in Chicago, these neighborhoods are our neighborhoods and these children are our children. And we’re going to have to come together and take meaningful action to prevent more tragedies like this, regardless of the politics.” — President Barack Obama
“Weapons of war do not belong in our street.” — President Barack Obama. [Except, of course, when they welded by militarized police doing no-knock raids.]
Or as part of his personal body guard.
Juss’ remember, 2B, if you’re walkin’ down the sidewalk, and the President of the United States is comin’ the other way, you best get outin his way, you hear, boy?
I better not get uppity if I know what is good for me.
Especially if I have just finished brunch.
Meanwhile back on the gold course in Hawaii…..President Oblamo handicaps another round while Moochelle is out touting the success of her food stamp program…..
From China Daily:
China’s stocks soared to a five-year high on the first trading day of the year on Monday as investors piled into blue-chips to extend a rally for the world’s best performing equities market.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index jumped 3.6 percent or 115.84 points and closed at 3,350.52, while Shenzhen Component Index climbed 4.6 percent to 11,520.59.
Mining sector led the gain on Monday, with 34 stocks, including Yanzhou Coal Mining, Shenhua Energy and Datong Coal Mine Group, soaring by daily limit of 10 percent, as the government has lowered export tariff on coal since Jan 1.
Two petrol giants, PetroChina and Sinopec, surged by the daily limit amid expectation that the State-owned companies will deepen mixed ownership reform and have more freedom in gas import.
Motor sector also led the gain, as Jiangling Motors, SAIC Motor and Changan Motor soared by the daily limit and FAW and Great Wall Motor advanced more than 5 percent.
Property developers rebounded on Monday, with Poly Real Estate Group, COFCO Property and Shoukai Development rallying by the daily limit, after Beijing signaled it will make it easier for first-time home buyers to access to mortages.
It’s a long way down for China, stocks and housing Dan.
I see both the Chinese and American stock markets doing their job today. They are anticipating economic conditions six months out. Not to pretty for the U.S.
Falling prices are always positive Dan.
In the USSA being able to buy more with the same amount of money is a bad thing.
Of course, when you’re leveraged to the hilt with debt, deflation is catastrophic.
They are both reflecting the result of free money being handed out by the government. Only for China, this is the last hurrah. It’s getting harder and harder for the cadres to hide the fraud at the core of the Chinese economy, and an inflated stock market is their last hope.
Smart financiers are buying U.S. stocks on sale and shorting Chinese stocks at the moment.
http://www.businessinsider.com/blackfield-capital-founder-goes-missing-2015-1
A bunch of Russian “investers” just got Corzined to the tune of $20 million. The 29-year-old hedge fund head/perp will doubtlessly show up in London and pay cash for a Mayfair mansion.
Amateurs. Corzine did not go missing. He still lives the fabulous life in the same areas he committed his crimes. He will probably run again in politics as democrats see nothing wrong with him.
“A bunch of Russian “investers” just got Corzined to the tune of $20 million.”
Wealthy Russians are probably a rough bunch. The 29-year-old will have to hide for the rest of his short life.
Happy 2015 everyone. Checking in with a local RE report. New construction is brisk here with numerous large apartment buildings going up and more being planned and debated with the zoning boards and community groups (bc of parking scarcity concerns in improving areas). Resale market is lagging obviously. In the ZIPs I follow (21202, 21224, 21236, 21222) on redfin and other sites, it looks like flipped houses do especially badly. For my purposes, I look at something as a flip if there are 2 sales in less than 12-18 months. Sometimes I can tell based on the listing photos, other times it’s easy to tell because an old rowhouse sells for 80k in 2013 and 160k in 2014. Great to see people are catching on. Usually when I see these flips, the flipper isn’t really making anything beyond the value of materials and labor invested. I assume they can make a living doing this if they’re doing much of the labor themselves or if they are doing this as a side job and using excess materials or labor from their main job. It’s definitely not something a casual investor could do anymore while hiring out all the work and trusting it will be done. And big NEW buildings (= lots of supply = downward price pressure) are the reason. It doesn’t hurt that the new buildings are in the best locales whereas the flips are often close to NIMBY or on busier streets.
Downlow Joe has entered the building
My walk score is 76, btw. Lack of a daily commute these days means I don’t have built-in HBB reading/posting time.
I work in the weed biz now and business has never been better, I even got a 15 second cameo on the MSNBC show “Pot Barons of Colorado”
What’s cooking today Potsy?
Beef broccoli lunch special, egg drop soup, and a side of hash oil
http://www.picpaste.com/IMG_20150105_112239_843-eSEhr52s.jpg
Oh my word. And I thought you were a health food nut.
Wait, you really work in the mj business? That’s awesome. What does the weed sector do for banking? Lots of heavy duty safes kept in secret locations?
Wait, you really work in the mj business?
Everyone in the Centennial State is in the weed business, it’s a well know fact.
Hey Joe, I have a question for you. I know the primary reason for the rise of the Greek left is the austerity program and the economic slowdown in Europe due to sanctions on Russia has not helped. But I wonder, do any of your relatives think that Russia is helping to fund the Greek left to cause trouble for Europe as a reprisal. Given the history between Russia and Greece, then the Soviet Union and Greece and finally back to Russia and Greece, I have to think Putin might be playing some cards. Any thoughts?
You’d have to look at Syriza (English spelling?) and see what their views are. That is the upstart left wing party, but I don’t think they are Communist, per se. They did very well in the last election, but the government right now is center-right coalition between New Democracy (the Greek GOP) and PASOK (socialists, but more like southern dems, not left wing). From what I know, most older Greeks loathe communists, dating back to the mid-20th century. But as we all know, Greek government has historically been very “friendly” to workers and the gov’t sector has always been bloated. Greece is mostly a center-right country, with a weird devotion to inefficiency and tolerating government make-work jobs.
Greece has also been very bad about collecting taxes and enforcing laws/regs, a hands-off approach that doesn’t bode well for any Communist influence. It’s not just that they let some people get away with not paying taxes–it’s that they barely made an effort to collect for the most part. My father in law apparently never paid property taxes until last year on any of his properties in rural Peleponese (near Sparta). And even now, the taxes are minimal, a few hundred dollars, as it is just scattered grazing areas and olive fields, with only one house.
The last thing is that Greece is still very family-oriented and religious, even a bit patriarchical/male dominated, at least compared to the rest of Europe and especially compared to Russia. I can’t see any genuine affection for Communism among the people. Greeks who left for the US are even more likely to be conservative and dislike socialism and communism. I think this is a big part of the problem–the most “able” Greeks left the country over the last few decades.
To answer your question overall, I think most Greeks don’t want an organized or powerful government, still despise Communism, and are wary of outsiders and that includes Russia just as much as Germans. You probably know that Germans run a lot of things in Greece (Athens airport, some of the ports, the cell phone company, Olympic is now part of Lufthansa) but I haven’t really heard negative things about that from family. I bring it up to see what they say, they seem to be OK with it as long as things are run well. When these ports/airports were nationalized, things did not run well.
The last thing is that Greece is still very family-oriented and religious, even a bit patriarchical/male dominated, at least compared to the rest of Europe and especially compared to Russia.
Joe, that is partly my point the links between the Russian orthodox church and the Greek Orthodox church have always been strong and Russia helped the Greeks against the Ottoman empire. I think people fundamentally misunderstand Putin, he is not trying to restore the Soviet Union, he is trying to restore the Russian empire.
I think people fundamentally misunderstand Putin, he is not trying to restore the Soviet Union, he is trying to restore the Russian empire.
People in Ukraine, the Baltic states, etc. don’t really care which it is.
No, but it should make a big difference to the U.S. We should have as much interest in that area as Russia has in Mexico.
Liberace!
Because lukewarmists have to be luke warm about AGW:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/05/polar-ice-caps-more-stable-than-predicted-new-observations-show/
Warmists gonna warm, Dannyboy, warmists gonna warm
“Many scientists believe our planet is in the early stages of a mass extinction, an event defined by a loss of 75% of species on Earth. It will be the sixth to occur in the planet’s 4.5 billion year history — and the first caused by humans.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/species-are-disappearing-from-earth-2014-12
Because infinite growth is not possible in a finite ecosystem
Apparently infinite miscalculation still is though
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/us/why-republicans-keep-telling-everyone-theyre-not-scientists.html
btw, please stop posting on the internet… you are contributing to energy usage and increased global warming. You should be ashamed of all the technology you are using and hide yourself away… it was only made possible through technology and growth, and according to you, it’s bad and a “magic solution” you shouldn’t be using it
Warmists gonna warm
This is a joke of an article written by Amy, article excerpts:
“median household income in 2014 rose 1.6 percent to $53,880 through November … Young Americans are making more money as technology companies ratchet up spending and hire”
Article notes number of recent hires, Facebook 2,000, Google 7,300, and Apple 12,300
So with 21,600 new tech jobs, that somehow unleashes the “pent-up demand” of millennial loosers to move out of mom’s basement and buy $500,000 starter homes, huh Amy?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-05/young-home-buyers-return-to-u-s-as-economy-accelerates.html
The insane thing is that the median price of a moderately sized 3 BR house in this country is like 200k, or twice what it should be based on the median HH income.
The other thing is that, on the coasts, there are a ton of $500k+ and $1M+ homes owned by aging baby boomers. (Less new ones being built, however, which is good.) The supply/demand for these is going to be a real riot in about 2025. It’s always funny to see middle and upper middle class people who are dependent on W-2 income go and put 100k+ down on a 500k McMansion house rather than get a modest house, fix it up nice, pay it off quickly, and avoid the commute from exurbia. People are animals. Stupid animals at that. Good goyim, the lifeblood of the banking economy.
Lib,
No need to wait until 2025 as the mass exodus is already occurring.
Si se peude
Border officials report record number of meth seizures at US-Mexico border
“Undercover agents are buying the stuff in San Diego for about $3,500 a pound — about a third of the cost of a pound of cocaine — and prices have been decreasing since 2008″
Since 2008? Any coincidence that’s the same year the Choom Gang took over the White House, LOLZ
http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/01/05/newspaper-report-meth-seizures-soar-at-us-mexico-border-in-fiscal-year-2014/
While most of the corporate-owned financial media is whistling in the dark about the possibility of a GREXIT and its knock-on effects, one prognosticator is taking a more bleak view.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/greek-euro-exit-would-be-lehman-brothers-squared-economist-2015-01-03
There are the competent and the incompetent. Everything breaks down along these lines. And the number of competent people is dropping every year. There are many ways to tell, who is where. Smoke times you only need to hold up a single blade of grass to see which way the wind is blowing.
If you are able bodied but do not support yourself and your family, you are probably not in the competent camp.
If you are bagging groceries at the supermarket and pack the sheet cake on its side, you are not competent.
Proofreading is a sign of competency?
Smoke= some.
“From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs” — President Barack Obama, third Inaugural address, January 20, 2017
“From each according to his abilities, to each according to his needs.”
I love it! There are lots of people that have a lot of abilities and then there is myself, one who has lots of needs.
I will extract (via a dotted line or two) money from those who have the abilities and I will then use this extracted money to fill my needs.
Deep down, I love Karl Marx. He had it right. Well, almost.
In most cases, a shortage of competence is overcome by a surplus of confidence.
And an abundance of easy money.
“When you combine ignorance and leverage, you get some pretty interesting results.” - Warren Buffett
Mitch McConnell as quoted by real journalists at the Washington Post:
“I don’t want the American people to think that if they add a Republican president to a Republican Congress, that’s going to be a scary outcome. I want the American people to be comfortable with the fact that the Republican House and Senate is a responsible, right-of-center, governing majority”
As reported by real journalists
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/us/politics/republicans-say-theyll-act-fast-to-push-agenda.html
Excerpts of top-voted online reader comments:
“Hurry up and trash the economy and environment. There’s still time to blame it all on Obama”
“The fossil-fuel industry has a stranglehold on Republican politics”
“Why in the world would any Democrat cooperate in the slightest with a party that says the bible is the only science book they need, that the earthis 6,000 years old, that women should not have the freedom to decide how to manage their own bodies, that access to affordable health care is not a right (as in civilized countries) but a privilege of wealth and birth, that continual war is necessary for economic development”
Because math is racist
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2015/01/04/civil-rights-groups-to-obama-increase-federal-education-funding-but-drop-standardized-testing-for-minority/
Got cultural Marxism?
Giving the free sh*t army more money is NOT racist.
Making student take tests IS racist.
Reminds me of how Hispanic minority groups were demanding to be allowed to take the high school exit exam in Spanish. You need to pass that test to be admitted to Cal State and other colleges.
Is it a bad sign when oil and Wall Street stocks are suddenly moving down in synch after weeks on end of decoupling?
Spiking the dollar is destroying the U.S. economy.
It seems as though both oil and U.S. stocks are going on sale at the same time. How good can it get for savers!?
Energy & Environment
Oil’s Fall Continues Into 2015, and Stock Markets Shudder
By CLIFFORD KRAUSS and PETER EAVIS
JAN. 5, 2015
Gasoline sold for under $2 a gallon at a Shell station in Cleveland last week. Credit Tony Dejak/Associated Press
HOUSTON — Oil prices tumbled below $50 a barrel on Monday, spooking global financial markets and signaling that the remarkable 50 percent price drop since June was continuing this year and even quickening.
The new drop in American and global benchmarks of more than 5 percent was accompanied by reports of increased Middle Eastern oil exports, continuing increases in American production and renewed worries about the declining economic fortunes of Europe.
The plunge once again sent fear through global markets. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 331.34 points, or 1.86 percent, to 17,501.65. The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, a broader benchmark, fell 37.62 points, or 1.83 percent, to 2,020.58. And the Vix, a measure of market volatility that is known as Wall Street’s fear gauge, leaped about 12 percent.
In response, investors sought safety in government bonds around the world. As bond prices rose, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 2.03 percent on Monday.
The decline in oil was not the only source of concern in the markets.
Worries about Greece’s ability to stay in the eurozone have reasserted themselves in recent days, for instance. The dollar continued its surge against the euro on Monday.
Still, as the oil price decline has continued, investors have increasingly seen it as a bad omen for the global economy. The drop may point to lower demand for oil and lower economic activity. And the decline suggests that policy makers have not managed to deal with the threat of deflation, or falling prices.
…
Looks like Europe has had enough, Putin is close to victory:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2897281/Francois-Hollande-suggests-sanctions-Russia-lifted-says-Putin-does-not-want-annex-eastern-Ukraine-told-that.html
This is an article written by real journalists at the New York Times that bewails home-schooled students escaping from the Democrat Party plantation of taxpayer funded public education
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/05/education/home-schooling-more-pupils-less-regulation.html?referrer=
Online article comment excerpt: “If most of these children are being home schooled so that they won’t be exposed to the idea that their parents’ magical friend doesn’t exist, and the world wasn’t created 6,000 years ago, they are going to be in for a rude awakening when they get out into the real world. That being said, they will probably make great cannon/IED fodder for all of our future pointless military adventures.”
Believing the world was created 6000 years ago is no more ridiculous than believing in spontaneous generation, or “dark matter”.
Dark matter matters!!!
I take no uncertain satisfaction from the posts today that take obozo to task - maybe the ‘folks’ are starting to wake up to this guy!??
‘folks’
“We tortured some folks” — President Barack Obama
Forward
He’s a lame duck, so he’s fair game now.
Just the same group of bozos that show up everyday. And I love the way Obama drives them crazy.
U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
http://www.usdebtclock.org/ - 116k -
Has anything changed in the last 12 months????
————————
Three Statistics Which Spell Doom for America
14 Oct, 2013 - Dave Hodges
There are three numbers that every American should be paying attention to and they are (1) the national deficit, (2) the unfunded liabilities debt, and (3) the derivatives/futures debt. When any reasonable person looks at these three sets of numbers and related statistics, there can only be one conclusion, which I will present at the end of this analysis.
To conduct this analysis, I am going to use some commonly agreed upon figures. The budget deficit is $17 trillion dollars, unfunded (partially or otherwise) mandated social programs constitutes another $220 trillion dollars and the credit swap derivatives total between $1 quadrillion dollars to $1.5 quadrillion dollars. In this analysis, I will use the very conservative $1 quadrillion dollar figure. These figures are not in dispute and therefore provide me with the basis to perform an analysis of what our collective economic futures hold.
America takes in $2 trillion dollars per year in tax revenue. The United States has a $17 trillion dollar deficit. How long would it take to pay this debt back? If one can do third grade math, the answer is very simple. On the surface, someone reading this would say we could pay this debt off by in 8.5 years. The correct answer is simpler, we can never pay this debt back. This is the ultimate catch-22. To begin to pay off the debt, we would have to cancel all government services. In this case, you would have no government, only anarchy.
In the United States, credit swap derivatives created national debt totals of over one quadrillion dollars. That is one thousand trillion dollars! The entire GDP of the planet is estimated at $66 trillion dollars. And somehow, in the infinite wisdom of Congress in 2008, we falsely and naively believed that a $750 billion transfer of wealth (i.e., Bailout #1) was magically going to save the economy and the collective futures of the American middle class. In short, the debt created by futures speculation is approximately 16 times greater than the sum total of the entire wealth on the planet!
Today, the derivatives market is again collapsing, despite unlimited rounds of bailouts (we presently are on QE Unlimited).
Derivatives are not anything of tangible value such as stocks, bonds, etc. They represent the ultimate illegal money game in which paper derived from other paper, such as futures and options, has served to bolster the balance sheets on Wall Street. Futures and options are exchange traded derivatives, but the largest group of derivatives is not even traded on the exchanges. These are called “counterparty derivatives” and consist of such financial entities as mortgage backed securities and credit default swaps. And as a reminder, the Federal Reserve is printing $40 billion dollars each and every month to purchase mortgage backed securities. Why? Because after the collapse they want to own hard, tangible assets, not useless cash. This action, alone, tells you that the bankers are saying that the American economy has hit an iceberg and is sinking fast. The Federal Reserve is metaphorically purchasing all the life boats and are leaving the rest of us to drown.
But, but, but…….Obamao is going on tour (this following two weeks of ‘vacation’ in Hawaii) to tout how well the US economy is doing.
The writer seems to have trouble distinguishing the deficit from the accumulated debt.
And if we really are 1.5 quadrillion in debt (which is about 5 million per inhabitant in the the US) then we might as well live it up, because a spectacular crash is inevitable. One does wonder, just to who is this 1.5 quadrillion owed?
Say hello to General Craterus Maximus
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Craterus
What a coincidence, his mother-in-law was Oxy.
…. who hadn’t two drachmas to rub together.
Whatever government touches - it will eventually destroy.
————————-
Time to End Fed Ed Aid?
Accuracy in Academia | January 4, 2015 | Malcolm A. Kline
“The federal government has no constitutional authority to do anything with regard to higher education (or any level, for that matter),” George Leef writes in Forbes. “But in 1965, Congress was swarming with ‘progressives’ who were sure that because college seemed to be a good thing for the rather small percentage of Americans who went, the nation would benefit if almost everyone went.”
“So the federal policy began to make higher education more ‘accessible’ for students, most significantly through grants and easily available loans. The result was that college education was transformed.” Leef is director of research for the John William Pope Center for Higher Education Policy, based in North Carolina.
“It had been a good that some Americans thought worthwhile, so they strove to qualify for admittance and saved for the modest cost,” Leef notes. “That’s why higher education used to work very well.”
“Federal intervention turned it into a virtual entitlement that delivers less education at more and more expense. It has also helped create the problem of credential inflation, shutting people who don’t have college degrees out from good jobs they could easily learn. As long as we have this law and the constant federal meddling it provokes, we will have a fantastically wasteful higher education system.”
And just one more thing: “Federal outlays have increased the cost of college,” economist Richard Vedder said in a conference call last year, and yet “a smaller percentage of students come from the bottom quintile now than in 1970 before we had these federal education programs.”
Federal outlays have increased the cost of college,” economist Richard Vedder said in a conference call last year, and yet “a smaller percentage of students come from the bottom quintile now than in 1970 before we had these federal education programs.”
Up above in the same article it is correctly noted that the largest student loan programs started in 1965. To be thorough, the GI Bill should be included, along with the 1958 law that provided aid to education: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Defense_Education_Act.
The other interesting thing about rants like this is that state governments are never mentioned. Most college degrees are granted by state universities, where taxpayers pick up about half the cost. If the cost of a college education has increased so rapidly, why does the federal government always take the blame and not the state governments?
You’re right. Both federal and state governments do nothing but inflated the cost of education. And everything else too.
$35,000 to build a tiny house.
$0 for some big locks/chains.
—————————-
Thieves steal house
January 5, 2015 | MYFOXNY.COM
A San Antonio, Texas couple had build a ‘tiny house’ to commit themselves to ‘green living’ but the entire home ended up being stolen.
Casey Friday says, “It was depressing, devastating, made me angry and shocked all at the same time.”
An advocate for so-called green living, Friday and his wife had invested 2 1/2 years and $35,000 into building a tiny home from the ground up.
They had just moved it to a plot of land they had purchased in Spring Branch.
However, someone stole it, leaving behind only a damaged paver driveway they had recently built.
After a local TV station reported on the theft, the house was reported being found on the south side of town. Neighbors had apparently seen it for days but did not know it was stolen.
Though they have the house back, they don’t know if they want to live in it anymore after signing a lease for an apartment.
The first sentence of the post says this:
“A San Antonio, Texas couple had build a ‘tiny house’ to commit themselves to ‘green living’ but the entire home ended up being stolen.”
And the last sentence of the post says this:
“Though they have the house back, they don’t know if they want to live in it anymore after signing a lease for an apartment.”
A suppose from this one could gather that, for this couple, living in a tiny house as a commitment to “green living” sort of wore itself out.
LOL, great story.
LoJack
Canada and the U.S. just lost 77 rigs in the last week, according to BHI, this downturn is not going to last long. Production is going to drop like a stone.
Why wouldn’t production drop like a stone considering overflowing tank farms across the globe, sinking demand and cratering oil prices?
Last year we have one billion seven hundred and fifty million barrels in storage in the U.S. and this year it is one billion eight hundred and thirty million or a difference of eighty million barrels. This has made all this difference? It is only four days supply.
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/table1.pdf
With a endless supply pipeline right behind it.
Falling prices is a positive.
The tragedy in lost mania jobs is that they were ever created.
Let us know when you go long on oil.
Nothing matters until you put money behind your call.
I am paying platinum and palladium right now through SWC. I expect to move money in the direction of oil shares about March. I do have a stake in BHI with covered options and some other minor positions but just intend to wait for leaps to expire particularly with BHI since the premiums are high now due to the upcoming merger.
The rig count BHI has on its website has a much lower number than the media is reporting:
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=79687&p=irol-rigcountsoverview
Today’s History Lesson From Art Cashin:
Cashin’s Comments
An Encore Presentation
On this day in 1919, two interesting things happened in Germany. In Berlin the streets were filled with gunfire. (Wait you say, didn’t the war end in 1918?) Right you are, Toynbee, but this was not the war. It was the Spartacus thing. (Wait you say, wasn’t Spartacus involved with the Romans back in the B.C. days?) You must have made Sister Herman Joseph so proud you little historian you! This was not the original Spartacus but a group of Communists who opted to call themselves the Spartacus League since the word Communist was hard to spell.
Anyway, they took to the streets and made Berlin look like Kosovo without TV cameras. After two weeks of bloody fighting, the rebellion was crushed sending the leader of the Spartacus League, Karl Liebnecht, into hiding.
Meanwhile, in Munich, the news of the rebellion provided just the right
amount of terror for another leader. He was a veteran of the war, winning the Iron Cross for bravery. But he felt the war had been poorly led, the peace unjustly won, and the reparations crushingly onerous. So on this day, with the telegraphed news of the fighting in Berlin as backdrop, Herr Adolph Hitler founded the Nationalist Socialist German Workers Party. To fit it all on a slogan they nicknamed it the “Nazi” Party.
Can’t be true.
Progressives and my teachers in public school taught me that Hitler was a “far right wing” leader who wanted to cut the size/scope of government, make women buy their own birth control and make blacks wear their pants up.
2Banana is just another sheep. Think for yourself.
Now that’s funny Lolacado.
house
plural houses
[hou-ziz]
1. a building in which people live; residence for human beings.
No Region for Old Men
Break On Through To The Other Region
Was listening to the Doors, as I ran my errands a little earlier, got my Mojo on.
“We’re all stars now in the dope show”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=alFpBTx2DxY
“Break On Through To The Other Region”
“I want to hold your hand” -Paul McCartney (lame)
“I’m a back door man” - Jim Morrison (’da man)
Sharyl Attkisson sues administration over computer hacking
By Howard Kurtz
Published January 05, 2015
FoxNews.com
Former CBS News correspondent Sharyl Attkisson has sued the Justice Department over the hacking of her computers, officially accusing the Obama administration of illegal surveillance while she was reporting on administration scandals.
In a series of legal filings that seek $35 million in damages, Attkisson alleges that three separate computer forensic exams showed that hackers used sophisticated methods to surreptitiously monitor her work between 2011 and 2013.
“I just think it’s important to send a message that people shouldn’t be victimized and throw up their hands and think there’s nothing they can do and they’re powerless,” Attkisson said in an interview.
Attkisson resigned from CBS last March after complaining that she was increasingly unable to get her investigative stories on the air. She has published a best-selling book, “Stonewalled,” about her battles against the network and the administration as she investigated stories on such subjects as Benghazi, Fast and Furious and ObamaCare.
I pray she has security - remember what most likely happened to breitbart, Hastings (his mercedes ended up crashing in a palm tree in Cali) and others.
Be careful out there Sharyl!!
“Former CBS News correspondent Sharyl Attkisson has sued the Justice Department over the hacking of her computers, officially accusing the Obama administration of illegal surveillance while she was reporting on administration scandals.”
Which means her issue is with the government.
But wait …
“Attkisson resigned from CBS last March after complaining that she was increasingly unable to get her investigative stories on the air.”
Imagine that!
“She has published a best-selling book, “Stonewalled,” about her battles against the network and the administration as she investigated stories on such subjects as Benghazi, Fast and Furious and ObamaCare.”
Oh, so it isn’t just the government she’s bitching about, it’s mainly CBS that is at the root of her woes.
What a surprise!
Journalist Computer Intrusion Lawsuit Filed Against U.S. Government
by sattkisson
on January 5, 2015
INVESTIGATIVE JOURNALIST SHARYL ATTKISSON FILES CLAIMS AGAINST THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF JUSTICE AND U.S. POSTAL SERVICE FOR UNAUTHORIZED AND ILLEGAL SURVEILLANCE OF COMPUTERS AND TELEPHONES
Washington, D.C., (January 5, 2015)—Investigative Journalist Sharyl Attkisson has filed administrative claims under the Federal Tort Claims Act against the U.S. Department of Justice, the U.S. Postal Service, and certain unnamed employees and/or agents of the federal government. Attkisson has also filed a lawsuit in the District of Columbia alleging certain violations of her constitutional rights based on information implicating the federal government in illegal electronic monitoring and surveillance of her home and business computers and phones from 2011 to 2013.
As outlined in the claims, three separate computer forensics exams revealed that intruders used sophisticated, remote capabilities to monitor Attkisson’s work. The intruders installed and periodically “refreshed” software used to exfiltrate data, obtain Attkisson’s passwords to various personal and work accounts, access the CBS News computer system, and monitor Attkisson’s audio using a Skype account. Forensics also revealed evidence of U.S. government-related involvement in the surveillance.
In May 2013, the Department of Justice issued a written response to questions from the news media stating, “To our knowledge, the Justice Department has never compromised Ms. Attkisson’s computers, or otherwise sought any information from or concerning any telephone, computer, or other media device she may own or use.”
sharylattkisson.com/ - 56k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-01-05 18:06:40
Journalist Computer Intrusion Lawsuit Filed Against U.S. Government
sharylattkisson.com/journalist-computer-intrusion-lawsuit-filed-against-u-s-government/
CraterRage® Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/lq4qV0
Great chart of the S&P 500: http://www.businessinsider.com/jpm-sp-500-inflection-points-chart-2015-1
Looks like we are due for a correction. It is running every 6 yrs or so.
Now, how to play it?
You could buy SDS if you have the necessary cojones.
(SDS) wow, 6 yrs of real pain?? Have you looked at the chart?
I want to be smart not bet on 00
Last week, a T Rowe Price investment adviser told my wife to load up on their S&P500 Index fund.
Whoops…
idiots
No harm done! She hasn’t yet even allocated a dime to stocks.
People are smart …
“Firefighters in Southern California responded to an unusual call over the weekend at the home of a man who awoke to find his ex-girlfriend naked and stuck inside the fireplace.”
If this happened to me I would leave here where she was, maybe invite over a few of my friends (and tell them to bring their cameras)- and maybe even invite over a few of HER friends - and then I would THROW A PARTY!
Bahahahahaha … but (alas) this is not what happened.
Go here for the rest of the story:
http://news.yahoo.com/woman-naked-stuck-in-fireplace-chimney-photos-162707091.html
And guess who pays for the new chimney!
Hmmmmmmmmmm…
LET THE GOOD TIMES ROLL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :}
Unemployment May Fall Below 5%
24/7 Wall St. By Douglas A. McIntyre
January 4, 2015 8:18 AM
When the unemployment level is below 5%, the economy is fully recovered. The jobless rate is moving rapidly in that direction and could reach the 5% level before the end of the year.
It is entirely possible that the United States could add over 300,000 jobs each month. That would decrease the level of “unemployed persons” by a third from its current level of 9.1 million. The recovery of the economy, at least based on the unemployment level, would then be complete.
The last period when unemployment was below 5% was almost a decade ago. The jobless rate in 2006 was 4.6%. In 2007, it was the same. Both gross domestic product (GDP) and housing prices surged during that period and the years just before. Average GDP growth for the 2004 to 2006 period was well above 3%.
As the recession began and housing prices collapsed, the jobless rate rose to 9.3% in 2008 and 9.6% in 2010. In 2009, GDP contracted by nearly 3%. In some markets, home values fell by a third. In some areas, particularly parts of Florida and Nevada, home prices reset dropped by more than 50%.
A measure of how a strong economy can drive unemployment below 5% for years runs from 1997 through 2001. The best year for jobs during that period was 2000, when the jobless rate fell to 4%. Not surprisingly, GDP rose by over 4% per year from 1997 through 2000.
The foundation is in place for another several years of very low unemployment. GDP rose 5% in the third quarter. There are few reasons to believe that rate will fall much. Based on the jobs picture, retail sales, car sales and improving corporate profits, the GDP for next year should increase 3%. The collapse in gasoline prices, which could drop the price of driving in the United States by $75 billion, according to the AAA, is among the most important factors in the increase of GDP in 2015. The GDP may be even more affected with the inclusion of the prices of oil-derivatives used by businesses and the fall in jet engine fuel prices.
A jobless rate of under 5% by the fourth quarter is not just possible, it is likely.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/unemployment-may-fall-below-5-131815120.html
Right on!
Falling housing prices, crude and commodities, the outlook is optimistic.
In China too, from China Daily:
China’s major real estate companies are expected to have emerged relatively unscathed from the grim market realities of 2014, by delivering results far better than the industry average.
Although most developers are yet to release their annual financial reports, private research institutions have already compiled annual rankings based on their own findings, which show that despite the market downturn, the major players were able to enjoy the benefits of simply being the largest.
Seven developers — Greenland Holding Group Co Ltd, China Vanke Co Ltd, Dalian Wanda Commercial Properties Co Ltd, Poly Real Estate Group Co Ltd, Evergrande Group, Country Garden Holdings Co Ltd and China Overseas Land & Investment Ltd — have now entered what one listing called the “over 100 billion yuan ($16.12 billion) club”.
According to a ranking compiled by China Index Academy, the research branch of SouFun Holdings Ltd, 80 Chinese developers hit annual contracted sales of more than 10 billion yuan, compared with 71 in 2013 (a rise then of 18 companies on 2012).
Their combined sales topped 2.8 trillion yuan, compared with 2.3 trillion yuan two years ago.
Over the first 11 months of 2014, total sales measured by floor space declined 8.2 percent to 1 billion sq m, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, while the total amount of residential floor space sold fell by 10 percent.
Property sales by 20 major developers tracked by China Real Estate Information Corp grew 18 percent in 2014, 7 percentage points lower than 2013, with more than half missing their sales targets set at the start of the year.
Its figures showed the sector’s best performance was by Guangzhou-based Yuexiu Property Co Ltd, which registered a 50.7 percent increase in sales, followed by Shanghai-based CIFI Group (up 45.6 percent) and Guangzhou-based Evergrande Group (up 37 percent).
Thanks to a series of easing policies since August, property sales stabilized toward the end of the year from a serious correction in the first half. Monthly sales started to grow on a month-on-month basis from October, with December’s expected to continue that trend.
The latest stimulus measure has come from the Beijing government, which said people who buy a first home covering 90 sq m or less will be eligible for housing-fund loans of up to 1.2 million yuan. The previous upper limit was 800,000 yuan.
Falling prices and collapsing demand in China is good news too.
“Slowdown Will See Commodities Falling 10pc In 2015″
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/commodities/11323750/Chinas-slowdown-will-see-commodities-falling-10pc-in-2015.html
Everyone Must
Check in, or in this, check yo self:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5aAbOgdbTbM
“Check yo self before you wreck yo self”
Predatory oligarchs gotta prey….
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2897963/The-girls-silenced-Andrew-s-friend-sex-abuser-Fergie-leaps-defend-Duke-new-shock-court-papers.html
Boogie Down Productions. some music from another Region
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_Minded
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f1OhaXQ0Tcc
They want your pizza
Woooo: Colts Safety Sergio Brown Does A Ric Flair … - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9oy7222FlPw - 180k - Cached - Similar pages
20 hours ago .
I didn’t know who Ric Flair was.
Ric Flair Jet Flyin’ - YouTube
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGbZN4fV4GU - 320k -
Inflate or default b@thez! Those are the only options on the table. Austerity is off the table and u know it! How dare you think about cutting food stamps or ssdi checks.
You think 500k homes are exspensive now just you wait until we pull a BOJ.
Housing demand is already at 20 year lows. That’s why prices are falling.
How come falling oil prices are suddenly dragging down stocks? Until last week they were fully decoupled.
What’s different about China’s energy stocks versus others?
ft dot com > Markets > Equities >
US Equities
Last updated: January 6, 2015 12:51 am
Wall Street tailspin spreads to Asian markets
FT Reporters
A worker waits to connect a drill bit on Endeavor Energy Resources LP’s Big Dog Drilling Rig 22 in the Permian basin outside of Midland, Texas©Bloomberg
US crude oil dropped below $50 a barrel for the first time in five and a half years, sending energy stocks into a tailspin and fuelling a broader sell-off on Wall Street that spilled into Asia as fears grew of a global economic slowdown.
The dollar strengthened against a basket of rivals to a nine-year high, while the euro sank to a nine-year low versus the US currency.
The nervous start to the year for financial markets reflected mounting fears that the world was facing the twin threat of slower growth and deflation, combined with worries about the impending Greek elections and the speed of the oil price fall.
The nervous mood in the US and Europe spread to Asia on Tuesday morning, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 falling 1.8 per cent in the first minute of trading and South Korea’s Kospi Composite losing 1.2 per cent.
In the US, investors sought long-dated government bonds as insurance against further downward pressure on inflation and global growth prospects with the US 30-year Treasury bond at its lowest yield since August 2012.
The slump in oil prices helped drag German consumer inflation down to 0.1 per cent in the year to December.
As deflationary pressures intensify in the eurozone, Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank is expected to launch a programme of government bond-buying as a means of boosting inflation expectations.
“The deflationary fear is growing, we are seeing slower global trade, oil and industrial commodities keep falling and the eurozone faces a major challenge in undertaking aggressive easing,” said John Brady, managing director at RJ O’Brien.
The sell-off in stocks had gathered pace on Monday, pushing the Eurofirst 300 index down 2.3 per cent, the UK FTSE 100 lower by 2 per cent while the S&P 500 closed 1.8 per cent lower.
Across share markets, oil companies led losses as BP tumbled 5.1 per cent, Royal Dutch Shell declined 4.8 per cent and France’s Total 6 per cent, while Eni of Italy was down 8.4 per cent. In New York, ExxonMobil was 2.7 per cent lower and Chevron 4 per cent weaker.
This will put the focus on the sector in China, where stock markets open at 9.30am, after a strong rally on Monday that saw energy stocks shoot up nearly 10 per cent.
…
Strategies 12/29/2014 @ 4:19PM
Are We Due For A Recession In 2015?
Bill Conerly, Contributor
Are we due for a recession? It has been 66 months since the last recession ended (as I write this in December 2014). Not too many people felt that the recession was over back in June 2009, but that’s what the business cycle experts determined. Does the length of this expansion tell us that we’re due for another one soon?
In economists’ jargon, a business cycle consists of an expansion, when the GDP and other measures are increasing, and a recession, when GDP is declining. To avoid calling every temporary drop a recession, we look for sustained and widespread declines in economic activity before using the label recession.
…
Mark Hulbert
Opinion: A bear market in stocks just became more likely
Published: Jan 5, 2015 4:53 p.m. ET
The Dow’s direction in the first two days of January often is a predictor for the remainder of the year
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — Bad news, investors: The Dow Industrials’ 300-plus-point drop Monday markedly increases the likelihood that the bull market has neared its end — if it hasn’t already.
That’s because the stock market’s performance in the first two trading days of January has a surprisingly good record of forecasting the direction for the next 12 months.
Furthermore, I found that the correlation with the rest of the year’s direction is higher when focusing on the first two trading days than on the first five days. That’s curious, because Wall Street has an indicator that focuses on the first five days (the “First Five Days of January Trading Indicator”) but not, as far as I am aware, on the first two days.
…
Futures Movers
Oil futures knocked to 5 1/2-year low
Published: Jan 5, 2015 5:24 p.m. ET
WTI briefly touches below $50 as dollar surges
By Claudia Assis
Energy reporter
William Watts
Reporter
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Oil futures fell Monday, stretching their losing streak to a third session and hitting their lowest levels in more than five years on concerns over a surging U.S. dollar and nagging worries of growing oil supplies.
Light, sweet crude for delivery in February (CLG5, +0.18%) fell $2.65, or 5%, to settle at $50.04 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices traded as low as $49.77 a barrel earlier in the session.
The settlement was the lowest for a front-month crude contract since April 28, 2009. Prices have lost 7.5% over the last three sessions.
February Brent on London’s ICE Futures exchange (LCOG5, +0.17%) declined $3.31, or 5.9%, to end at $53.11 a barrel, the lowest settlement since May 1, 2009. Brent has lost 8.3% over the past three sessions.
The moves came as the euro (EURUSD, +0.23%) plunged to a nine-year low versus the U.S. currency.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, -0.15%), which measures the U.S. unit against a basket of six major rivals, was up 0.3% on Monday, and it’s up nearly 2% already in 2015, building on a 2014 rise that was the largest yearly jump since 2008.
A rising U.S. currency makes dollar-denominated crude more expensive to users of euros, yen and other units.
The dollar’s rise also stoked worries about the eurozone, and talks of a potential “Grexit,” or Greece exit from shared European economy, have re-emerged. That could be more devastating than the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, one economist warned.
…
Weather forecast: Sub-ZIRP temperatures ahead.
1:04 pm ET Jan 5, 2015
Credit
Sub 2% in 10-Year Treasury Yield Soon?
By Min Zeng
CONNECT
Benchmark 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 2% again, driven by flight-to-safety demand in a world of uncertain global growth, falling oil prices, worries over Greece and the prospect of QE from ECB.
The last time the yield traded below 2% on an intraday basis was back on Oct. 15. That day $924 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds changed hands, the most in at least a decade, as the yield on the 10-year plunged to as low as 1.873% before recovering to close at 2.091%.
The yield on the 10-year hasn’t settled below 2% on a closing basis since May 2013. That was the month that then-Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress that the central bank could begin tapering at one of the “next few meetings.”
Some traders say this time the rally doesn’t portend a banking crisis or debt crisis is coming. It’s more a reflection of worries over deflation risk driven by continued selloff in oil. The 10-year Treasury note 19/32 higher, and yield fell to 2.056%.
“The rest of the world is trying to avoid deflation, and that’s pushing the dollar higher and the U.S. inflation rate lower. This environment makes Treasurys an attractive investment,” said Anthony Cronin, a Treasury bond trader at Société Générale SA.
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phony scandals