Bits Bucket for January 7, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Boston officials at home living in residency loophole
Council considers altering residency rule that has led to dual households
In the four decades since the residency rule dawned, it has bedeviled and divided city workers, with some required to abide by it while other classes of employees are exempt. The proposal, which must pass the City Council, would create a commission appointed by the mayor to study the hodgepodge of laws and labor contracts governing residency requirements and recommend changes by year’s end.
“It’s so convoluted right now,” City Council president Bill Linehan said.
The policy dates to the mid-1970s and was based on a simple premise: All city employees should live in Boston. But a state law exempted teachers, and the policy was otherwise largely ignored until the mid-1990s. Then-Mayor Thomas M. Menino bolstered the city law, creating the compliance commission.
Over time, the residency requirement became a bargaining chip in labor negotiations, with all city unions except one securing the right for employees to move out of Boston after 10 years on the job.
Eileen Boyle, a longtime crusader for the policy, said she hopes the residency law would be strengthened by eliminating union exemptions and making it harder for city officials to establish weekday residencies while continuing to live in the suburbs.
The residency commission has generally ruled that employees with multiple homes must spend the “preponderance of time” at their Boston address, which usually means at least four nights a week, according to McGonagle, its chairman.
‘city unions’
goons!
Public unions control all local government pretty much. The LIEbs do not care about this abomination which has led to more and more corruption.
There should be a law that all union goons must retire in the union goon cities they made their golden pensions in.
Instead - what is the first thing a union goon does when he/she retires?
Moves to a right to work and low tax state.
If the pension is originating in a state or locality, could it be taxed there regardless of where the person lives?
No. CA tried to do that to state retirees but ultimately lost in court. I believe it was a supreme court decision. In the 90’s maybe.
No.
On Jan. 10, 1996, Congress enacted the Pension Source Tax Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-94). This law specifically stipulates that, “No State may impose an income tax on any retirement income of an individual who is not a resident or domiciliary of such State.” While the Source Tax law still allows individual states to define residency on their own terms, it prohibits any state from taxing non-residents for pensions earned within the state. If you earn a pension in Vermont, for instance, then retire to New York, Vermont may not tax your pension income.
Union goons also need to pay the insane property taxes their pensions have created too.
Well, it looks like it could be done if they change the law I guess. Seems like something the rust belt and NE states could push for to avoid the flight to the cheaper areas. As budgets grow tighter, who knows what will happen.
Didn’t the Soviets try something similar in Berlin?
+1
So you want more gov control over people??? Hypocrite.
Totally consistent with other Neocon programs.
I’m not in favor of it. I just thought it was something interesting that occurred to me might be something attempted in the future.
As far as govt control, is it really? These are public employees I am talking about. I have no problem with government control over government or former govt workers, especially when they gave the public fisc over to them wholesale throughout the last 15 years. It never should have been done in the first place and reeling it back in doesnt trouble me.
Embattled Detroit judge ‘psychotic,’ fact finder says
The article neglected to mention whether or not she continues to draw her pay.
During the hearings, a psychiatrist testified that Sanders suffers from “paranoid delusions” but Sanders, in an email to The Detroit News, disagreed.
Sounds like she is ready for the appellate level or Obama’s DOJ. Holder we have found your replacement, you can leave now.
Is oil going to keep cratering today?
It seems the problems of 2008 have only been papered over haven’t they?
Can rising asset prices grow the economy without production and services growing?
That’s right ….. The housing bottom is far lower than that reached in 2009 as resale prices were 200% over long term trend and 1.5x construction costs that year.
Why is there no clear consensus in the financial media what dramatically lower oil prices mean for the stock market or the economy in general?
It is because they are all liars and shills.
Trickle down economics does not work. Corporations have record profits, but they are not hiring.
Time to tighten up the tax loopholes.
Let’s see if this makes it through;
Lola… you’re dumber than a box of rocks.
Duh! Your dumber!!
What good is that? Lonely Analcyst? Prove it works. DOnt just cry.
Box of rocks Lola.
Clearly Lola from this post.
“Mr. Market is kind of a drunken psycho. Some days he gets very enthused, some days he gets very depressed. And when he get really enthused… you sell to him, and if he gets depressed, you buy from him. There’s no moral taint attached to that.”
– Warren Buffett
I’m guessing that Mr Market is still trying to recover from his New Year’s hangover after his year-long drinking binge in 2014.
Do u think its time to wheel out the ppt again?
I wonder if seniors are running out of money yet? I assume they thought they could get 5% on their cash in the bank but that hasn’t happened and wont anytime soon.
I see a lot of older people workn retail jobs.
I went into safeway (vons in s cal) and was shocked at grocery prices in there.
Should I feel happy paying 50-100% more for groceries so someone running the register can make a decent wage?
The ppt may be able to help the 1% avoid stock market losses, but I don’t see what they can do to prevent Grandpa Sixpack from needing to work at Walmart in order to put food on the table.
Why would an old person choose to live in SoCal with its crazy high cost of living, much less in the fancy areas in SoCal Azdude visits?
I think some older folks down there have their homes paid off and have low property taxes thx to prop 13. If they sell they basically have to leave the state cause they couldn’t afford the property taxes at current market values of homes.
If you have owned for 40 years you might have pretty low property taxes. Could be around 600/ year
If you sold your crib for 500k that would be 5000/ year in property taxes for new owner. That can increase 2% / year or 100 bucks first year.
50 bucks / month vs 400, big difference
Got alpo?
If they sell they basically have to leave the state cause they couldn’t afford the property taxes at current market values of homes.”
They can move their low property tax to their new house. Heirs can also inherit the low property tax. Crazy huh?
I’d rather have friends/servants in government who pass laws to help me and give information that allows me to pretend that I am challenging Mr. Market.
Deflation: coming soon to a Fed-blown asset bubble near you.
http://www.businessinsider.com/here-comes-eurozone-inflation-2015-1
I wonder if obama know which of the 57 states he is in…
—————
Obama Brags About $10 Bil Auto Bailout of GM and Chrysler at a Ford Plant He Helped Idle
Investor’s Business Daily | 1/6/2015 | IBD Staff
Bailouts: President Obama is going to Detroit Wednesday to brag about how he saved the U.S. auto industry. What he’s really doing is exposing the folly of his industrial policy.
Just days before Obama’s planned swing through Detroit, the Treasury Dept. reported that the final taxpayer cost of the auto industry bailout was $9.26 billion. That equals $441 for every single car and light truck that GM and Chrysler have sold since 2009.
That’s an awfully big price tag for Obama to claim bragging rights over.
Maybe the outsized bailout cost explains why Obama will give his talk at an assembly plant owned by Ford, which didn’t take any bailout money yet somehow managed to survive the recession.
What did low oil prices bring the last time around, then?
A cratering of the Texas housing market.
—————————–
Memories Of Houston, The Last Oil Plunge, And $10 Crude
Forbes | 1/06/2015
Just as things were getting interesting, however, the oil-service stocks started to slide. I called the analysts and nobody had a good explanation why. Oil demand was still growing, driven by Asian economies that were expanding at a 7% annual rate. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries still seemed to have a stranglehold on oil prices, as U.S. crude production, which peaked at around 10 million barrels a day, was down to below 6.5 million barrels a day and falling steadily.
What did low oil prices bring the last time around, then? Mostly needed discipline to the oil business, which tends to spend too much and expand too rapidly when prices are high. Cost-cutting drove consolidation, as BP bought Amoco, Exxon bought Mobil, and Chevron bought Texaco.
That discipline also drove oil executives to invest heavily in new technology, including the combination of horizontal drilling and fracking, both well-understood techniques, into a single process for extracting oil and gas from previously impenetrable shale deposits.
When it dropped to $10 last time, what did it start at, what was it at peak? Anyone know?
Even Obama knows he can manipulate gasoline prices at these levels for very long, “suddenly” we are back at $3.50, yes that is the reality:
https://autos.yahoo.com/blogs/motoramic/obama-to-americans–enjoy-cheap-gas–but-don-t-count-on-it-141931096.html
can=cannot. People should read this story very closely. Obama will use it to remind people that he “warned” them about higher oil prices. Of course, right now he has his friends in the media writing all kinds of stories how consumers are going to save hundreds of billions of dollars on gasoline which is based on gasoline prices staying low.
The MSM also works like this and it is the only reason why I watch them at all. They will run twenty stories where they lie about the economy and have experts to back them up. However, in the pile of sh*t, they will have one person who will tell the truth. The same thing is happening with oil this time around, 20 “experts” explaining why oil can fall further and one expert who explains that we are out of cheap oil and given the rapid decline of shale oil wells the price has to pop up quickly. Then, six months from now when oil prices are shooting up and people are complaining why didn’t you tell me this, they will run the one story that got it right to show how watching CNBC etc. keeps you informed.
Why didn’t Obama spike the dollar and drop oil prices a month before the elections instead of after? The Dems may have retained the Senate.
I have commented on that many times. He was actively doing it since August or even earlier, he just didn’t break down the resistance of the bulls until December. Since they saw that the surplus was only about a million barrels a day with total demand about 93 million, most of them thought the Saudis would cut. That is the problem with trying to do this secretly, they could not send out a memo saying that the U.S. and the Saudis were officially waging economic war on Iran and Russia. Now most of the oil traders have gotten out of the way but the physical market is a problem since oil cannot be produced at adequate prices at this price.
One final thought, I kept reading that the Obama administration had an October surprise but I think they were not able to pull it off, it was much cheaper gasoline prices.
adequate prices= adequate amounts
BTW, I figured out that Obama was using the dollar in August. However, I did not figure out the Saudi angle and quite honestly I thought he and his Fed were using it to keep down the price of gold more than oil to justify continuing loose money.
BTW, if Reagan would have been running this economic war he would have started out with efforts which either increase the supply of oil or have the potential to do so in the near future. He would have approved the XL pipeline which lowers the cost of transporting oil 2-3 dollars a barrel, approved the export of oil, (which Obama only did recently when the decline of oil started to stall), and opened more federal lands to drilling. Obama is trying to do this entirely with the dollar and the futures market. Thus, it took longer to get the price falling and he missed his window of the November elections and has no hope of keeping oil down for a protracted period. Also, at the start of the Reagan war, the Saudis had ten million barrels of day of excess capacity, it is doubtful the Saudis have any today despite claiming two million (read Twilight in the Desert). The dollar and the Saudis were used by Reagan but not almost exclusively and the Saudis actually had the ability to break the back of other oil producers with cheap oil.
“BTW, if Reagan would have been running this economic war…”
Saint Ronnie will live forever.
“shared responsibility payment”
comrade - wow
——————–
An ObamaCare Tax Monster Speeds Toward Millions of Filers
Investor’s Business Daily | 1/7/2015 | John Merline
ObamaCare was supposed to keep the nation healthier by expanding access to insurance. Instead, it will keep the professional tax preparation industry healthy by making the tax code even more hopelessly complex.
As health care analyst Bob Laszewski points out on his widely read blog, the IRS came out with a 21-page booklet explaining what ObamaCare will mean to tax filers this year.
In addition, there’s a 12-page publication with instructions on how to claim an exemption from the individual mandate (there are 19 options listed), along with instructions on how to calculate the “shared responsibility payment” for those irresponsible people who didn’t buy government-approved insurance and aren’t eligible for an exemption.
It seems people are paying more so more people get it free. Am i missing something here?
“It seems people are paying more so more people get it free.”
+1 Same script LBJ used to fund the Great Society.
Don’t you just check the box saying, yes I have health insurance or no, please take the penalty?
1. Never borrow money in a foreign currency as a homeowner (if you can hedge this risk, then don’t do it).
2. The day America issues bonds due in another currency (and there have been calls for this) is the day I sell everything and move far away. That will be the bell ringing for game over.
————————
For some Russians, mortgage costs soaring due to ruble slide
AP | 7 Jan 15 | IRINA TITOVA
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia (AP) — When they took out a mortgage on a small two-room apartment seven years ago, Oksana Li and her husband hoped to make a new home for themselves and their young son.
Now, like thousands of other Russians, they are seeing that dream unravel as they are unable to make payments — even by working longer hours and a second job.
That’s because they are part of a minority of Russians who took out mortgages denominated in a foreign currency to take advantage of lower interest rates abroad. As Russia’s currency collapsed in recent months, the cost of repaying those mortgages has gone through the roof.
“In November, we gathered my entire monthly salary and that of my husband and took it to the bank, but the sum was still not enough to cover the new monthly payment,” said Li, a 35-year-old office manager whose mortgage is in Swiss francs.
What about the converse — if you live in a country that has the world’s reserve currency (the US dollar), then it’s to your advantage to have a mortgage denominated in a second-tier currency. I mean, I’d love to have a mortgage denominated in Argentinian Pesos, even if I had to pay a higher interest rate. You know it’s only a matter of time before the Peso devalues…
Or go bankrupt.
If you do this - you need to hedge against currency swings.
It’s the same reason why the PETA crowd goes after little old ladies wearing fur coats, and not leather-clad bikers.
Both sides are learning something.
Liberal white New Yawkers and learning.
obama black racists are learning.
Learning is fundamental!
————————-
Hating Whitey’s Brunch
Frontpage Magazine | January 7, 2015 | Matthew Vadum
This past weekend, “Black Brunch” organizers and their followers stormed upscale eateries in New York City and Oakland, Calif., reading out the names of black criminals killed by the police and shrieking that whites had no right to be there. They accused whites of committing “genocide.”
This is what the Left does. Left-wingers politicize everything. Now they’re getting in the faces of people when they get together to enjoy brunch.
It’s not that disrupting Sunday brunch, a setting in which friends of all colors typically reconnect by putting their hectic urban lives on pause for an hour or two, is necessarily all that horrifying — in a way it’s comically pathetic — but the race hatred fueling the protest is real and disturbing.
Attacking diners is also a long-running tradition among community organizers.
Members of the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now were outraged in 1996 when a business owner in Clayton, Mo., publicly took a stand against an ACORN-backed state ballot question to raise the minimum wage. Chanting angrily, ACORN stormed Bob Candice’s Italian restaurant and gave him a mock award for “Keeping People in Poverty.” ACORN acknowledged in-your-face tactics were part of the group’s standard operating procedure. “Intimidate the guy with the money bags,” said member Gus Stroud. “Try to make them understand.”
On the weekend Black Brunch participants posted defiant, self-righteous messages on Twitter about their protests, often including photographs of surprised-looking Caucasian brunch diners. The words they used could just as easily have come from a rant against Jews in Der Stürmer or The Final Call.
A woman named Camila Ibanez, who identifies herself as a “Community organizer,” tweeted, “ATTN WHITE Man, I have no guilt disturbing your brunch. Its [sic] YOU that has no right to be here. #blackbrunchnyc[.]”
Someone called Kat Yang-Stevens tweeted, “#BlackBrunchNYC happening now & white fragility is on full display. When confronted with complicity in genocide most whites brains melt[.]”
The individual is described in politically correct argot on his or her Twitter page as “Queer 1stGen Asian Am* settler/ writer / educator / agitator / organizer / smashing colonialist imperialist capitalist white supremacist cis-hetero patriarchy[.]”
The theory behind the Black Brunch actions appears to be that annoying white people at brunch will somehow bring about social change.
Some brainwashed young whites even say they deserve to be attacked by blacks. Georgetown University School of Foreign Service student Oliver Friedfeld took diplomacy to absurd new heights after he was mugged, saying nice things about his assailants. In an op-ed that reads like a satirical piece from The Onion, this youthful useful idiot refuses to judge his attackers.
Who am I to stand from my perch of privilege, surrounded by million-dollar homes and paying for a $60,000 education, to condemn these young men as ‘thugs?’ It’s precisely this kind of ‘otherization’ that fuels the problem.
But I thought that when Jesse Jackson’s sons were given the largest Anheuser-Busch distributorship in Chicago that it would solve all of these problems and achieve Social Justice™
There are STILL more foot lockers to loot in the name of social and racial justice…
See also:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/kathleen-parker-al-sharptons-ace-card/2015/01/06/0d48f130-95ee-11e4-aabd-d0b93ff613d5_story.html
Got Arizona Iced Tea brand Watermelon Fruit Punch, Skittles, and Promethazine with Codeine?
Cops: Walmart Shoplifters Left Kids In Vehicle
Busted parents never mentioned three children were in locked car
http://thesmokinggun.com/documents/stupid/walmart-shoplifters-left-three-kids-in-car-675490
the last sentence is the kicker…
How’s all that diversity and multiculturalism working out for France, LOLZ
Quick - print more COEXIST bumper stickers!!!!
Barack Hussein Obama
Think about it…
“The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam.”
– From President Obama’s speech at the U.N. (September 25, 2012)
“Islam is a religion of piece” — George W. Bush
You spelled that word correctly. Their bombers makes pieces of many people.
piece of what?
More Sky Wizard follies
Suicide Bomber in Yemen Kills at Least 30
http://www.wsj.com/articles/suicide-bomber-in-yemen-kills-at-least-15-near-police-academy-1420612067
We need another $1 trillion war to clean up this mess
New Congress, are you listening?
Obama Spokesman Condemns ‘Terrible Act of Violence’; Calls Islam ‘Peaceful’
CNSNews.com | 1/07/2015 | Susan Jones
“This is a terrible act of violence, and one that we condemn in the strongest possible terms,” White House spokesman Josh Earnest told MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Wednesday morning, shortly after masked gunman killed 12 people at the offices of a satirical newspaper in Paris that has made fun of the Prophet Mohammed.
French President Francois Hollande called Tuesday’s massacre a terror attack, but Earnest did not: He used the phrase “terrible act of violence” three times, and he also called Islam a “peaceful religion.”…
http://www.obamasrealfather.com/
Maybe it is just more workplace violence
——————–
WH Unsure Whether Murderous Rampage in France Is ‘Terrorism’
The Weekly Standard | 7 Jan 2015
The CNN host asked, “Josh, when you talk about countering the message, you keep using the word violence. I mean, this is an act of terrorism, that’s what the president of France called it — an act of terrorism. You’re referring to ISIS and other bad actors, it doesn’t really matter who it is at the end of the day. You know you’re fighting a very large group of people of somewhat similar concern. Do you see this as an act of terrorism, and is this something that has to be condemned on that level?”
“Based on what we know right now it does seem that’s what we’re confronting here. And this is an act of violence that we certainly do condemn, and if based on this investigation it turns out to be an act of terrorism, then we would condemn that in the strongest possible terms, too,” said Earnest.
“I mean, look, this is again based on the very preliminary information that we have, this isn’t just an attack as you point out, Chris, on the people of France and on innocent civilians. This is an attack on some of the basic values that we hold dear here in this country and basic values of freedom of speech and freedom of expression and the free press that is also held dear by our allies in France. So this is something we take seriously and that we condemn, like I said, in the strongest possible terms.”
Yes it must be workplace violence, it cannot be that religion of peace.
The discussion basically boils down to the meaning of the word terrorism, which makes it pretty dull.
Our Sky Wizard commands us to kill anyone who ridicules him.
and if based on this investigation it turns out to be an act of terrorism
Based on that, it would seem that there is some approved concrete definition of terrorism floating around. Maybe our real journalist at CNN could find that for us.
Sometimes when the question is posed, “Is it terrorism?”, what the real journalists look into is whether the person acted on his own or was part of some group. Even though the definition of terrorism is not a particularly interesting topic, that’s an odd way to define it.
The average person has no problem recognizing this as terrorism and neither should our government.
Once again, that goes into the question of the definition of the term. Also, our government need not concern itself with this incident. The French should be able to handle it.
Why don’t you an Obama get a room? You would support him if he called this extreme vandalism.
What possible definition of terrorism could any rational person come up with that would not include shooting up a publication because it published a cartoon you do not like?
I specifically wrote that it’s a dumb question to begin with. I’d prefer that the president not characterize the attack at all.
‘The average person has no problem recognizing this as terrorism’
Oh, oh, let me. Let’s see; probably murder, attempted murder, kidnapping, use of illegal weapons. What, no charges for terrorism? Maybe it’s just a word that gets thrown around by deranged nut-jobs like Savage and his listeners.
You must be above average when it comes to this issue.
I’d prefer that the president not characterize the attack at all.
I prefer the president defend western values like free speech and freedom of religion. It does not mean he has to go to war but he or his spokespeople should not make a joke of the nation by suggesting that this act is hard to quantify. Perhaps deciding whether an attack on an Israeli soldier in the Gaza strip is terrorism might present some difficulties, but a ten year old knows that this is terrorism.
Oh, oh, let me. Let’s see; probably murder, attempted murder, kidnapping, use of illegal weapons. What, no charges for terrorism?
Sorry most countries do indeed have a criminal offense called terrorism and while you can charge all the above crimes for what occurred, I bet France does indeed of a crime of terrorism. BTW, ours can be found here:
http://codes.lp.findlaw.com/uscode/18/I/113B/2331
Definition of terrorism U.S. code, of course France would have a similar definition:
As used in this chapter - (1) the term “international terrorism” means activities that - (A) involve violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or of any State; (B) appear to be intended - (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United States, or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended to intimidate or coerce, or the locale in which their perpetrators operate or seek asylum; (2) the term “national of the United States” has the meaning given such term in section 101(a)(22) of the Immigration and Nationality Act; (3) the term “person” means any individual or entity capable of holding a legal or beneficial interest in property; (4) the term “act of war” means any act occurring in the course of - (A) declared war; (B) armed conflict, whether or not war has been declared, between two or more nations; or (C) armed conflict between military forces of any origin; and (5) the term “domestic terrorism” means activities that - (A) involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State; (B) appear to be intended - (i) to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; (ii) to influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion; or (iii) to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction, assassination, or kidnapping; and (C) occur primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United States.
Well that’s some fine gobbledegook you got there dan:
‘involve violent acts or acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the criminal laws of the United States or of any State, or that would be a criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the United States or of any State’
Like, say, torture! Yes, torture is illegal in the US and international treaties the US has signed. Did you know the US hung Japanese soldiers they tried and found guilty of water boarding after WW2? (They actually had a trial. Imagine that.) I bet Savage never mentioned that, I wonder why. Some people might say killing thousands of innocent bystanders with double tap drone strikes is a war crime. Listening to my phone is illegal. Starting a war without congress is illegal. Isn’t what is and isn’t a crime pretty what ever the “somebody in the government” arbitrarily decides post Sept. 11th? You know what arbitrary law is? No law.
My opinion of US citizenry just hit a new low yesterday.
I listened to two Joe6Packs discuss the economic perils of “low oil prices”. It was as though these two were looking at dramatically lower retail fuel costs as though it were impending doomsday yet their cost for a necessity is plummeting.
Something has gone wrong in this nation. Very wrong.
All depends:
If you work in the energy sector = low oil prices are bad
If you work anywhere else = low oil prices are good
If you own oil related stocks = low oil prices are bad
If you live in an OPEC nation or Russia = low oil prices are bad
If you live anywhere else = low oil prices are good
If you are a wacko environmentalist democrat who thinks gas should be $20/gallon so people will stop driving cars and talk about their “walk score” more = low oil prices are bad
https://www.walkscore.com/
It is a bit more complicated than that 2banana. For example, if you live in Texas whether you work directly for the energy sector or not, it is probably bad. Many of you customers probably do work for the energy sector.
True - Restate:
If you work in the energy sector or are indirectly supported by the energy sector = low oil prices are bad
Testify! I live in the so-called “Energy Corridor” and the carnage is just beginning.
Indirectly supported:
http://oilpro.com/post/9450/layoffs-extend-into-octg-markets-us-steel-cuts-hundreds?utm_campaign=newsletter334&utm_source=dailyNewsletter&utm_medium=email
I read somewhere yesterday as much as 47% of TX gdp is energy related.
Although, I like to point out that when people’s water starting becoming flammable, when creeks dried up due to frackers taking all the water, when kids got respitory disease because a drill pad was 400 ft. From their back yard, the oil and gas industry did exactly jack squat.
The small operators will / are getting hit. Big companies are laying off. They’ll survive, but there will be short term carnage.
Texas is a much larger part of the entire U.S. economy than it was the 1980s. Whether lower oil prices are good for the country as a whole depends on whether the decline in energy business spending is sufficiently offset by increased consumer spending. If the consumers decides to pay off debt instead, it could be a very negative development for short term GDP although it would make for a healthier economy in the future. Of course, there will be a decline in consumer spending by people in the energy sector and their customers.
“Take a look at commodities. Globally, there are over $22 TRILLION worth of derivatives trades involving commodities. ALL of these were at risk of blowing up if the US Dollar rallied.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-07/whats-happening-commodities-just-tip-derivatives-iceberg
You’re much less crude today Dan. In spite of cratering oil prices.
Interesting battle going on today. Oil wants to go higher but the one trick pony Obama is spiking the dollar to contain it. The price to keep oil down is an every increasing dollar which is killing business profits. Judging by Obama’s comments on gasoline, he knows the game is just about over. Checkmate for Putin.
^LOL
If you would have looked at the EIA’s numbers about a month ago, you would have seen year on year production up about 1.14 million barrels a day. Today you find that number up 987,000 barrels year on year. The “glut” estimates anticipated that year on year production would be up a million barrels per day in 2015. That requires increasing production of about 20,000 barrels per day. Over the last three weeks production has already fallen and we are just beginning to feel the impacts of reduced drilling.
Facts are stubborn things but the oil production decline is actually slightly ahead of my schedule.
“Oil wants to go higher but the one trick pony Obama is spiking the dollar to contain it.”
Yeah, he’s sitting at his desk at the White House, with his “pump up the dollar” button. You’re an absolute fool.
You are a fool to believe he has not tried to run the Reagan plan against Putin.
Glut projections were for U.S. oil production to hit ten million barrels a day in 2015 and 10.8 million barrels in 2016. We are around 9.1 right now. We will be lucky to hit 9.2 without a surge in oil prices and we will be falling from there not going up.
You are a fool to believe he has not tried to run the Reagan plan against Putin.
Believe is the right word here. Just like religious faith, no evidence is necessary.
I see the evidence every day as the dollar is manipulated like clock work just before the opening of oil. I see the evidence in Saudi Arabia’s refusal to cut oil when a ten per cent production in supply could double the price and they would make far more money. Simple economics would mandate they perform their traditional function. It is funny how much the higher the evidentiary standard is against Obama than it was for Bush.
Just like religious faith, no evidence is necessary.
Actually, I do not believe that most people of faith require no evidence but they are more willing to connect the dots. In WWII, the British army was able to evacuate due to inclement weather at precisely the right time. The German invasion of Russia was stopped not just from a normal winter but two of the most brutal back to back winters in one hundred years. Additionally, D-day was possible due to a slight unexpected break in the weather. Finally, in a funny story, General Patton ordered a chaplain to come up with a prayer for good weather so he could relieve Bastone. It worked. A person of faith would see the hand of God in the events, a person that does not believe would insist that someone prove that it was God that actually caused each event.
That requires increasing production of about 20,000 barrels per day.
That is per week over all of 2015.
Overflowing tanks farms of cratering crude. A blog overflowing with DesperateDan’s BS.
Craters craters…..
HA what am I desperate about? BHI, has performed well for me.
It’s not about you Dan. Snap out of it.
If anyone looks at the amount of crude oil in storage from June 2013 to now, he or she would have a difficult time to see a glut:
http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/
Crude and housing prices falling, he or she would have to be blind not to see a glut.
“It’s not about you Dan.”
It’s all about Dan, so far as his input here is concerned.
“It was as though these two were looking at dramatically lower retail fuel costs as though it were impending doomsday yet their cost for a necessity is plummeting.”
They’ve been brainwashed by the media and political class to believe that rising prices on everything forever will make them rich…and the central bankers of the world keep trying to fulfill that fantasy.
#BizarroWorld
Something has gone wrong in this nation. Very wrong.
You didn’t figure that out in ‘08, when 95% of the electorate voted for two twin corporate statists, Obama and McCain?
I’m looking at it as if it were a short squeeze.
All of the marginal producers are levered up to the hair roots. They need to service the debt - no problemo a year ago (let’s say) when they took out the debt. Now, with wholesale revenue having plummeted, the debt still requires servicing at the contracted price. No mulligans on accounta no dinero.
So. The marginal producers go bust, and the equipment for which they paid hundreds of millions is sold for pennies on the dollar. (Schlumberger or whoever will be glad to pick it up and store it until prices go back up).
200,000 direct oil field production workers and admins will be canned over the next year. That 200K drives multiplier-effect employment of 5:1, so another 1 million associated second-order suppliers wind up pounding the street, for a total of 1.2 million caught flatfooted by the oil bust.
Meanwhile, an unmentionable amount of money that might contentedly been winding its way around the spending chain (providing livings to local beauty parlors, nail salons, car salesmen and the like) will have been destroyed, leading to M3 that’s even lower than it is now.
There will be nationwide contagion. This bust will be the mother of all busts - remember the domino effect and how it gathered momentum last time? The nouveau riche are not known for their long term thinking. The parts counter jockey making $23K/yr - once introduced to the life style and material conveniences made possible by a demonstrated income of $100K/yr - has a lot of pent up demand. Massive personal bankruptcies.
In a year or so, with non-economic production having dried up for this generation at least, marginal producers having been driven out of business and their equipment sold, there will be another oil shortage that drives prices up to (say) $140/bbl.
This time, we’ve got it coming from several directions: financial markets, oil, housing, and any other bubbly commodities that people levered up to stockpile, for which they are still on the hook when the prices come back down.
So now, in a severe recession, with the house of cards once more tumbling down, with unemployment back at 12%, not being able to pay the re-bubble mortgage prices, Joe and Jane 6Pack will need to suck it up with $8 heating oil in 2016. Trying to keep the payments up on the car while likely being unemployed.
I imagine this crash will start in the options markets, and quickly goes ballistic. We will witness once more how each barrel was pledged multiple times, bringing down the re-insurers. Again.
Police departments will once again become coddled darlings. They will be much in demand as private security. Perhaps some of the yout’s will stop shooting cops and turn their wrath on the linchpins. Hence, the linchpins will hire cops en masse. They’ve got the experience.
In anticipation of this contingency, FEMA and DHS have stockpiled ammo and pre-built internment camps.
IMHO, let’s put the pieces together now, so that we are not caught by surprise again. As Blue Skye said yesterday, the evidence of the oil crash was right in front of our eyes a year ago, in bits and pieces. One thing for sure - there’ll be lots of fire sales.
I’m thinking that Alabama and Arkansas - actually, ANYPLACE beyond the perimeter of a tank of gas and three days’ walking beyond the East and West coast corridors - are/is lookin’ pretty good.
Of course, the penalty for leaving too soon is too high. I’ll still be studyin’ up on the pros and cons when they come to haul me away to the Region III internment area.
OK, OK. Being that entropy will damp any complex system, I’m sure it won’t be as drastic as all that. But I don’t really see a way forward other than a continued slow decline.
Other news from the housing front in VA. Real-T-Whores ™ insist that legit wishing prices for sixty year old houses are $300K when family median incomes are $50K (zip 22942) and actual closings are $200K. The leading edge boomers are cheerily sticking to the delusion that their shacks will fund their retirements. What’s worse, some idiot will invariably bite.
There’s so many of them that it’s disheartening. Idiots, I mean. Delusional boomers too. Maybe it’s me that’s nutz.
970 new democrat voters!
Hooray!
And then I bet they all went out and immediately bought car insurance.
—————————
California issues 970 immigrant driver’s licenses on first day
Sacramento Bee | 01/06/2015 | Alexei Koseff
Almost 1,000 driver’s licenses were issued on the first day of a new law granting licenses to immigrants living in California illegally, according to the state Department of Motor Vehicles.
970 new democrat voters!
I imagine many of them were voting already.
I wonder if you can actually own and register a vehicle in the state without having a license?
are they able to get free healthcare through covered ca now?
Only a thousand? Expect that to ramp up dramatically.
I’m just surprised that the DMV was able to do 1000 of anything in a single day…
Only in the liberal mind is the insistence that a program be solvent be construed as an attack:
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-mh-on-day-onel-new-congress-launches-attack-on-social-security-20150106-column.html
Real journalists ask do immigrants take jobs from American born workers
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/01/06/do-immigrants-take-jobs-from-american-born-workers
“If you like your MS-13, you can keep your MS-13″ — President Barack Obama
Got 34 million?
Crater Rage® Photo Of The Day
http://www.dreamcreatorsacademy.com/attachments/Image/1348219035_anger_1.jpg?1403326168792
Living in a rental will never feel like a real home.
Awww how cute.
Working as a Realtor™ will never feel like a real career.
A nation of broke @ss loosers
“Approximately 62% of Americans have no emergency savings for things such as a $1,000 emergency room visit or a $500 car repair … only 48% of respondents said they would completely cover a hypothetical emergency expense costing $400 without selling something or borrowing money”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-are-one-paycheck-away-from-the-street-2015-01-07
How’s that “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes been lately?
Approximately 62% of Americans have no emergency savings for things such as a $1,000 emergency room visit
How are those high deductible policies working out?
No, but that’s a healthy majority that can vote themselves benefits you will have to pay for.
No “pent-up demand” here
Office Market Sees Tepid Recovery
http://www.wsj.com/articles/office-market-sees-tepid-recovery-1420432202
Inflation in the eurozone has turned negative, official figures have shown, with prices in December 0.2% lower than the same month a year earlier.
The tip into deflation adds pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB) to take further action to stimulate the bloc’s economy.
The bank’s inflation target is below but close to 2%.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-30707644
Only 14% believe U.S. won the war in Afghanistan
http://www.breitbart.com/national-security/2015/01/06/poll-only-14-percent-believe-us-won-afghan-war/
They attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms
We have to fight them over there so we won’t have to fight them over here
Freedom isn’t free
These colors don’t run
Power of pride
Let’s roll
Mission accomplished
Et cetera
Only 14% believe U.S. won the war in Afghanistan
Goon, you should find out where they are buying their pot. It must be really good sh*t.
They won the war in Afghanistan, the Taliban had run away after having their arses bombed to bits. At that point the call should have gone out to behave or the bombs will fall again. Instead the political idiots tried to nation build and from there it got very messy.
At that point the call should have gone out to behave or the bombs will fall again.
I agree. However the reality today is Al Queda is back in the tribal areas and the war is far from won.
“They attacked us on 9/11 because they hate our freedoms.”
If they hated us for our freedoms back in September 2001, they should mildly dislike us these days.
Bill, my favorite metal was up 12% last year and it is looking even better for this year:
http://www.mineweb.com/booming-car-buying-good-pgms/
I’m buying some in spring.
They must not have had access to Mexican TV or they would have bombed Mexico City.
What percentage of each state’s population is foreign born?
California 27.1%
New York 22.6%
Florida 19.4%
Texas 16.4%
http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-how-many-foreigners-live-in-each-us-state-2015-1
Permanent Democrat Supermajority
I am soon going to post an excerpt from iafrica.com, but the truth is it is always fun watching the left trying to keep the lights on, it does not matter whether it is New England, California or South Africa, they cannot do it at a reasonable price. However, South Africa will soon have to cut power to the mines which is good for me.
Two generators have stopped working, placing South Africa at high risk for load shedding, Eskom confirmed on Wednesday.
The electricity giant warns demand for power is sharply rising and if another generator cuts out, load shedding could be implemented on an almost daily basis.
Eskom managed to keep the lights on throughout the festive season.
But the parastatal says the power grid is once again under pressure due to the reopening of businesses around the country.
Eskom was forced to implement stage three load shedding at the end of last year after a coal silo at the Majuba power station in Mpumalanga collapsed.
More than two-thirds of the utility’s generators operate with aging equipment and a lack of maintenance is understood to be the cause of the severe constraints.
Eskom spokesperson Kulu Pasiwe said, “Our technicians are working on them [the generators].
“The system is constrained and we are appealing to all customers to reduce their loads. If you leave the house or the office, switch off lights and air conditioners. Only put them on when you come back.”
The power giant on Tuesday confirmed that one unit at the Medupi power station will go live in mid-2015 despite a missed December deadline.
Spokesperson Andrew Etzinger said construction of unit six at Medupi was complete but the parastatal was now conducting a complex cleaning procedure, which was taking longer than anticipated.
stocks are rallying on the thought of more money printing by the ECB. they want to basically print to support asset prices.
Whatever happened to working , saving and then buying stuff? It seems everyone wants to discount the future to keep the party going today.
“Whatever happened to working , saving and then buying stuff? It seems everyone wants to discount the future to keep the party going today.’
How many people actually have to work to build stuff these days ? Manufacturing is very efficient now.
Too bad medical care is not. Or government.
After obama was elected the first time in 08, i could not read this blog. I went away to a dark and lonely place for five years! I have nothing bad to say about the liberal friends i know, they are my only friends, but liberals in the media are intolerant. Thank you to some HBB posters for speaking out against the Pajama President, finally!
“liberals in the media”
http://www.infowars.com/feinstein-youre-not-a-real-journalist-unless-you-draw-a-salary/
And you’re not really a prostitute unless genital contact is made.
I think Diane uses hair color.
If you like your profits, you can keep your profits. Hospitals like Obama:
“For-profit hospitals have benefited from provisions under the Affordable Care Act that boosted patient volume and helped curb bad debt expenses, and they are well-situated to handle operational challenges in 2015, according to a report from Fitch Ratings, Modern Healthcare reports. …the report found that the ACA also helped for-profit hospitals by bolstering patient volume and improving the overall payer mix. “
There were lots of Messiah worshippers on this blog still praying to the Messiah in ‘09 and ‘10. Nowadays they either changed or they left the blog.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zjz16xjeBAA
About sums it up.
Not really a Messiah worshipper, but as far as this Eisenhower Republican/Socialist goes, I don’t show up here much anymore, because I’m super busy making and saving money. AKA getting while the getting is good.
Why so busy? Because I’m in a position to take advantage of the effects generated by idiotic/misguided Repub/Tea Party economic policies.
Keep that deregulation coming.
But what is good for me personally isn’t neccesarily good for the business/country as a whole. Or by the fact that some of my profit/income is being offset by increases in property crimes, even out here in Tea Party Ground Zero (aka Johnson County Kansas)
Because I’m in a position to take advantage of the effects generated by idiotic/misguided Repub/Tea Party economic policies.
When were the Tea party people responsible for the US economic policies in force?
Maybe not the specific Tea Party, but the Republicans are in favor of degregulation, part of which is loosening minimum standards for aircraft mechanics. I suspect that’s where Fixer is getting a lot of side work that he wouldn’t normally get.
Fixer, are your side jobs still small private aircraft, or are you working on jets contracted down from the big boyz?
Maybe he’s building those jet engines that the military didn’t want, but John Boehner did because they were built in his district. It’s funny how these anti big government types get all weepy when it’s their government paycheck that’s taking the hit.
Maybe not the specific Tea Party, but the Republicans are in favor of degregulation, part of which is loosening minimum standards for aircraft mechanics. I suspect that’s where Fixer is getting a lot of side work that he wouldn’t normally get.
Nice out. He specifically listed Tea Party.
So if there’s deregulation and loosening of minimum standards why do you draw the conclusion Fixer would have more work? I draw the opposite conclusion. Loosening of minimum standards implies to me that people have to do less maintenance work on their aircraft to stay in compliance.
No, airlines have to do the same amount of maintenance, but they can contract that maintenance out to shop with fewer qualifications. Fixer might be working at a high-quality shop and a lower quality shop on the side, but I’m not familiar enough to keep it straight. Fixer has commented on it before, so he can clarify for you.
For the record, Fixer said Rebub/Tea Party. What’s the Tea Party stance on regulations?
For the record, Fixer said Rebub/Tea Party. What’s the Tea Party stance on regulations?
For the record, what deregulation since the Obamanator has been in office have the “Repub/Tea party” pushed through?
Or is this another, Obama’s great, he just struggles because of the men before him? ‘Cause if it is, that argument goes on ad infinitum. Certainly any president i can blame his problems on president’s i-1, i-2, etc. Hang it all if it isn’t some ancient Greek that’s the cause our problems if we only knew.
I’m a centrist Dem but am not an Obama worshipper. Obama stinks as a leader and can’t communicate a coherent message. Used to be a crossover voter at one time, back when there used to be moderate Repubs. Can’t vote Repub any more because 1) they have become anti-science; 2) they still believe in that trickle down nonsense; and 3) too eager to engage in foreign wars.
Are you saying home schooled, bible college graduatin’ repubs lack the ability to recognize reality, let alone run a government? Just for that, they’re going to start a war in Iran. Because that’s what God wants.
“I went away to a dark and lonely place for five years!”
Region III?
Wait, this blog turned total lib in 2009? Wow, that’s news to me. Had I known that, I would have posted more DK, TPM and FDL links.
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/06/on-the-futility-of-climate-models-simplistic-nonsense/
Meanwhile, while deniers are denying, this happens: http://goo.gl/9gku6V
Warmists gonna warm, Dannyboy, warmists gonna warm
From China Daily, small point but notice the interest rate on five year loans and the room the government has to cut them:
Beijing’s high-end residential market is expected to see a number of projects with the unit price tag higher than 100,000 yuan per sq m in 2015, a report from international real estate agency Savills showed on Wednesday.
Despite the challenging market environment, the loosening of the approval for pre-sales certificates for high-end residence from the side of government, combined with a growing pool of high net-worth individuals residing in Beijing part-time, are expected to give a broader demand base and ensure a steady stream of deals, according to the report
Several luxury residences priced above 100,000 yuan per sq m are anticipated to be launched onto the market in 2015.
Meanwhile, Beijing’s new Grade A apartment supply will be more limited in 2015 compared with the past three years, as only six projects are scheduled to enter the market, adding a total supply of 878 units, just one third of the average in the past three years, according to the report.
Though the year of 2014 experienced a slowdown in the residential market, the land market remained active, it added.
Beijing increases housing credit ceiling
With a stagnant housing market, Beijing has increased the ceiling of housing public accumulation fund loans from 800,000 yuan ($130,000) to 1.2 million yuan, local authorities announced Wednesday.
The housing pubic accumulation fund consists of long-term housing savings deposited by both employers and workers every month. It can only be used for workers to purchase a house and, if unused, is returned to workers when they leave office or retire.
The current interest rate for housing pubic accumulation fund loans over five years is 4.25 percent, compared with 6.15 percent offered by commercial banks.
Propaganda Dan, are you related to Tokyo Rose?
Prove one inaccurate fact in the story and you can call it propaganda. Just because it does not fit your beliefs does not make it propaganda.
Are you enjoying falling housing and fuel prices?
Are house prices in Phoenix going up or down? Why have all the data sources been disagreeing for so long? Depending on what you look at, they are flat, increasing, or decreasing. What gives?
Chicago - wind chills at -50degF -
Ummm……I am freezing my a$$ off up here - Global warming my a$$!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chicago&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.837&textField2=-87.685&e=1#.VK1kXNLF-VA
Different case west coast. Too hot out here. High pressure off the coast again. It’s not just the heat about climate change but the way it throws weather patterns all wonky.
Weather has always been wonky. California had hundred year droughts before man fell out of the tree.
Warmists gonna tax
“Global Warming” Fee Added to Calif. Gas Prices – Before Sales Tax!
Drivers now paying a tax on top of a “global warming” tax
by Kit Daniels | Infowars.com | January 7, 2015
California drivers are now paying a “global warming” fee added to the price of gasoline before sales tax, forcing them to pay a tax on top of a tax.
The state is charging gas retailers a new “global warming” cap-and-trade fee and retailers are passing the cost to consumers, but the consumer sales tax is calculated from the full pump price, which includes the cap-and-trade fee.
“The global warming fee, which is variable and could soar in the future, added about a dime this week,” Dan McSwain of UT San Diego said. “Then the state adds 2.25% of the full retail price – including those other fees and taxes – while city and county sales taxes add more (0.5% in most of San Diego County).”
Many drivers haven’t noticed the increase yet due to the plummeting gas prices, but they will eventually because the $0.10 per gallon fee is not a set price – it’s determined by California’s “cap-and-trade” market in which various industries trade their permits covering specific amounts of emissions, the total of which is capped by the state.
In other words, the “global warming” fee can go up.
Never been a better time to add a global warming gas tax in CA. I bought last night at $0.10/gal cheaper than a couple of weeks back, before the tax was added!
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/us/why-republicans-keep-telling-everyone-theyre-not-scientists.html
“Climate Grubering” — its a powerful new word that can help us to describe what’s been going on.
November 16, 2014
The late Steven Schneider puts it succinctly:
“On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”
Our critics sometimes dismiss skeptics as “conspiracy theorists” noting how unlikely it would be that thousands of scientists would collude. They miss the point. We now know that Grubering takes place — we see it laid bare in the Obamacare campaign. It was not strictly a “conspiracy”. Rather it was an arrogant belief that lying was necessary to persuade a “stupid” public to adopt the policy preferences of the politicians and the academics in their employ. Its Noble Cause Corruption, not conspiracy, that is at the root of this behavior.
wattsupwiththat.com/…/new-term-grubering-and-how-it-applies-to-climate-alarmism/ - 584k -
The Agenda: Using false science to create a “global crisis”
Club of Rome: “In searching for a new enemy to unite us, we came up with the idea that pollution, the threat of global warming, water shortages, famine and the like would fit the bill…”[1] The First Global Revolution, Club of Rome, an elite think-tank (David Rockefeller, Gorbachev, etc.) working with the UN.
Stanford University Professor Steven Schneider (Nobel Prize winner along with Al Gore): “…we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination…. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements and make little mention of any doubts…. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest.”[2]
Christine Stewart, Canadian Minister of the Environment: “No matter if the science of global warming is all phony… climate change [provides] the greatest opportunity to bring about justice and equality in the world.”[3]
http://www.crossroad.to/articles2/007/earth-day.htm - 48k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-01-07 11:40:38
“Climate Grubering” — its a powerful new word that can help us to describe what’s been going on.
wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/16/new-term-grubering-and-how-it-applies-to-climate-alarmism/
Because lukewarmists have to be luke warm:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/alexepstein/2015/01/06/97-of-climate-scientists-agree-is-100-wrong/2/
Can’t they call it “Climate Benghazi” instead? Because of my dyslexia, “Gruber” looks like “booger” to me.
“Can’t they call it “Climate Benghazi” instead?”
How about…
Fast and Furious Climate
or
IRS targets Climate enemies
or
Spying on the the AP Climate
or
Climate Change on the VA Waiting list
or maybe
If you like your Climate you can keep your Change
I know
Jonathan Gruber’s stupid American Climate
“A jail sentence doesn’t matter anymore. The only thing that gets you shunned in New York society is poverty.”
Jeffrey Epstein’s Society Friends Close Ranks
Alexandra Wolfe
04.01.11
Despite the pedophile mogul’s conviction for soliciting underage prostitution, his circle is standing by their man. Scientists whose research Epstein funded also back the billionaire, writes Alexandra Wolfe.
On the evening of December 2nd, 2010, a handful of America’s media and entertainment elite—including TV anchors Katie Couric and George Stephanopoulos, comedienne Chelsea Handler, and director Woody Allen—convened around the dinner table of convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. It wasn’t just any dining room, but part of a sprawling nine-story townhouse that once housed an entire preparatory school. And it wasn’t just any sex offender, but an enigmatic billionaire who had once flown the likes of former President Bill Clinton and former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak around the world on his own Boeing 727. Last spring, Epstein completed a 13-month sentence for soliciting prostitution from a minor in Palm Beach. Now he was hosting a party for his close friend, Britain’s Prince Andrew, fourth in line to the throne.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/…ody-allen-jeffrey-epsteins-society-friends-close-ranks.html - 333k -
I will need Tarara for this, but if you click on the…
Page Not Found
Oops! That page doesn’t exist!
link you should see some fine looking animal heads in the background including what appears to be a moose antler rack.
Heads?
What kinda heads?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBawB6fFhmE - 360k -
Comment by phony scandals
2015-01-07 10:10:28
Jeffrey Epstein’s Society Friends Close Ranks
thedailybeast.com/articles/2011/04/01/bill-clinton-katie-couric-woody-allen-jeffrey-epsteins-society-friends-close-ranks.html
“Eyes Wide Shut”
Pulled this From Cashin’s Comments January 7, 2015 at UBS:
Finally Gundlach ‘gets it’……Wonder about the remainder of the talking heads noted in a comment above - could it be that Gundlach is the ‘one’ reporter CNBC will refer back to?
The Other Interview – In addition to his Barrons interview, Jeff Gundlach had a longer interview with “Finanz und Wirtschaft”. It was equally downbeat and insightful. Here’s a bit that I found particularly interesting:
Is the U.S. economy not strong enough for a moderate raise of interest rates? For instance, the unemployment rate is already down at 5.8% and closes in on the 5.2 to 5.5% range which is considered as maximum employment. It is really a mistake to compare today’s unemployment rate to what would have been an unemployment rate around 6% roughly twenty years ago. Today, there is a great shift towards part time employment. For example Wal-Mart is very visible in this regard. They intentionally hire people for less than 26 hours a week to avoid Obamacare. Well, that means that what used to be three jobs is now five jobs. There is not more money into the economy. Also, what you have is employment growth for people who are over 55. Why is that? They cannot retire because interest rates are at zero. With interest rates at zero an infinite amount of money earns zero, let alone a finite amount of money like $300’000 or $800’000 or whatever the particular individual has saved. There is no chance that they can live off of that. Therefore, what many older people do is they work. But there is very little movement regarding young people. So it seems like the Fed, for reasons that are philosophical rather than fundamental, may raise interest rates.
What do you mean by that?
I think they are just nervous about zero interest rate policy going on this long and not having tools to fight any future weakness in the economy. What the Fed wants to do is get off of zero so at least they have the ability to ease down the line. But fundamentally, there is very little reason why they should raise interest rates. The price of oil dropping to $55 a barrel is a very strong sign that there will be perhaps no inflation at all in the United States. The only places where there is inflation is in places that are painful. It is in shelter and in food but not in wages which would help parts of the society. Raising interest rates against that backdrop seems like a poor idea. So I just hope the Fed thinks carefully about what it is doing.
He went on to project that if oil fell to $40, the yield on the ten year could dip to 1%. Lots more good stuff. Pull it up if you can.
Drill, baby, drill!
Business
Deep Debt Keeps Oil Firms Pumping
Producers Have Increased Their Borrowings by 55% Since 2010
By Erin Ailworth, Russell Gold and Timothy Puko
Jan. 6, 2015 8:33 p.m. ET
American oil and gas companies have gone heavily into debt during the energy boom, increasing their borrowings by 55% since 2010, to almost $200 billion.
Their need to service that debt helps explain why U.S. producers plan to continue pumping oil even as crude trades for less than $50 a barrel, down 55% since last June.
But signs of strain are building in the oil patch, where revenue growth hasn’t kept pace with borrowing. On Sunday, a private company that drills in Texas, WBH Energy LP, and its partners, filed for bankruptcy protection, saying a lender refused to advance more money and citing debt of between $10 million and $50 million. Neither the Austin-based company nor its lawyers responded to requests for comment.
Energy analysts warn defaults could be coming. “The group is not positioned for this downturn,” said Daniel Katzenberg, an analyst at Robert W. Baird & Co. “There are too many ugly balance sheets.”
…
Do oil guys own their drilling rigs, or do the rigs own them?
Maybe (finally) we’ll get to stop hearing all of this “Texas Economic Miracle” BS.
Kansas state government is what the government in Texas would look like without oil.
Economic Report
Slumping demand for oil sends U.S. trade gap to 11-month low
Published: Jan 7, 2015 8:48 a.m. ET
A ship leaving Miami. Exports fell in November, and so did imports.
By Jeffry Bartash
Reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Credit sinking oil prices and soaring U.S. oil production for cutting the U.S. trade deficit in November to the lowest level in 11 months.
The nation’s trade deficit shrank 7.7% to a seasonally adjusted $39 billion – much smaller than Wall Street expected – mainly because of cheaper oil and the smallest amount of crude imports since 1994, Commerce Department data showed Wednesday.
Lower demand for imported oil helped offset a reduction in American exports to Asia and Europe amid a slowdown in economic growth outside the United States.
Imports dropped 2.2% to $235.4 billion in November, the Commerce Department said. The price of imported oil fell to the lowest level since the end of 2010, as volumes continued to shrink to multi-year lows, spurred by a fracking revolution that’s triggered a historic surge in U.S. energy production.
…
We are going to have to offset the rapid decline in shale oil wells. So we better engage in drill baby drill, but the drill rig counts show we are not.
Do you think oil will crater by the end of the day? was up now looking flat.
We need more production!!
Up around 50 cents a barrel on a day that dollar was significantly stronger, interesting day but the traders will not commit deeply to the buy side until they are convinced that the government has stopped trying to force prices down. Everyone knows it has to rise significantly from these levels, but not fighting the Fed is an adage everyone knows.
Dude I have to say your conspiracy theory about oil is a little out there. I just don’t see why the govt would want to bankrupt a bunch of companies.
Reagan did it against the Soviet Union. This is no more conspiratorial than saying the CIA spies on Russia. The companies are collateral damage in this war, but since Obama’s people unlike Reagans do not understand the oil industry, they seriously underestimate the economic cost of this war and the quick lost of production. Obama will never admit defeat it just will happen. However, the quicker he admits defeat the less damage will be done to the U.S. economy.
Every attempt to post is met with a failure notice but I will try again:
Reagan did it against the Soviet Union. This is no more conspiratorial than saying the CIA spies on Russia. The companies are collateral damage in this war, but since Obama’s people unlike Reagans do not understand the oil industry, they seriously underestimate the economic cost of this war and the quick lost of production. Obama will never admit defeat it just will happen. However, the quicker he admits defeat the less damage will be done to the U.S. economy.
I kind of think its speculators unwinding, less demand and more supply.
Big banks have been bidding up assets across the board. at some point you take profits. Some people are left holding the bag as usual. Somebody has to lose if you run out of enough folks to pass the baton onto.
“Drill, baby, drill!”
Who said that?
No charges over Palin family drunken Alaska birthday brawl
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/10/10/us-usa-alaska-palin-idUSKCN0HZ06O20141010
Because teabaggers gonna bag
Nobody got raped, molested or died in a car accident. Those Palins sure do need to get some Kennedy lessons.
FWIW, the Kennedy Presidential Dynasty ended in Chappaquiddick.
There have been plenty of Kennedy family scandals since then.
“I can’t breath!”
– Mary Jo Kopechne after being left to die from a “Kennedy”
“I can’t breath!”
4,491 U.S. service members from Iraq war.
Eric Garner said I can’t breathe too, but I guess its alright if its a white cop choking a black guy to death, right?
Dman what if eric garner had a taxpaying job……..he would have been at work and not on the street corner doing something illegal……..sorry….only a moron would do this in front of cops……..
You don’t hear much about Palin anymore. I guess she’s just too classy for the Republican party these days, in a white trashy sort of way.
She was an experiment, one that might have worked had Dubya not wrecked the economy. Had the stock and housing markets not crashed she would probably be the Veep now.
Had the stock market not crashed just prior to the election, I think she would have been veep.
I’m going to have nighmares tonight…
Palin was and is an imbecile.
“Palin was and is an imbecile.”
Compared to who? She is qualified to take orders and attract horny lumberjacks. Same old same old.
New Obamacare doctors are coming soon:
http://www.iraqinews.com/arab-world-news/urgent-isis-opens-faculty-medicine-graduation-3-years/
San Diego, CA Sale Prices Crater 10% YoY As Housing Correction Gains Traction
http://www.zillow.com/san-diego-ca-92130/home-values/
To pick up on a tagline pattern started by the Goon:
Movers gonna move
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102312939
Listening to Rush today - need some levity these days - snark.
He is really on a rant about Hitlery right now regarding her statement in a speech a while back about dealing with the likes of ISIS and other terrorists and trying to get into their heads to ‘understand’ why they do what they do.
This all in light of the Paris terrorist assaults today.
And I forgot to include my point about Hitlery - simply - lookout Murika if she is elected POTUS.
Not much difference between Clinton and Jeb Bush. One’s a corporate Chamber of Commerce Dem and the other is a corporate Chamber of Commerce Rep. “Why Wall Street Loves Hillary: She’s trying to sound populist, but the banks are ready to shower her campaign with cash.” (Politico)
This is why I laugh when “conservatives” call Obama a “Marxist”. Obamacare was a gift to the the crony capitalists. Were Obama a true Marxist he would have nationalized the hospitals, clinics and private practices, along with Big Pharma and the device industry as well, and made all heathcare workers, including doctors, nurses, orderlies, R&D scientists and engineers, into government employees. He would have also nationalized and closed the insurance companies, after raiding their bank accounts.
But that’s not what happened.
I guess we could as Savage says - call him and his ilk a red, doper, diaper baby?
Savage is much more fun to listen to than Rush.
I read his newest book on a flight back to Region VIII Christmas weekend, it’s like a greatest hits of HBB anti-Obama talking points
obamacare is just a few more steps towards nationalized and socialist healthcare.
Don’t worry liberals - we will get there. And you will shocked! shocked, I tell you! when you have to bring your own toilet paper to your hospital room…
My grandparents also received care paid for by the federal government. The program is called Medicare. You may have heard of it. They never told me about any need to bring their own toilet paper to the hospital.
I’m surprised the for-profit hospitals haven’t started charging fees like airlines. Bring your own toilet paper, higher price for a window bed, extra for extra blanket, lower price down at the end of the hall where nurses can’t get to you, etc.
Hell for all I know, they already do.
Fairfax, VA(DC Metro) Sale Prices Crater 14% YoY
http://www.zillow.com/fairfax-va-22032/home-values/
Oil prices high = bad
Oil prices low = bad
Me just simple caveman. Me is SOOOOOO confused…….
Oil prices high = bad
Oil prices low = bad
Me just simple caveman. Me is SOOOOOO confused…….
If oil prices were lower due to someone finding a giant oilfield that could be produced for $10 a barrel, it would be a good thing. But oil prices that are lower due to government manipulation which will have to jump right back up because the world still needs $100 a barrel oil to ensure an adequate supply is a bad thing. Needless lay-offs which just slow the economy without the consumer having a long enough period of low gasoline prices to improve his or her personal balance sheet is not a net good.
Falling prices of all items is positively bullish, patriotic and good for the economy.
When prices fall due to predatory practices, it is not a good thing nor it is a good thing when prices fall due to government mandates. Mugabe, Chavez and Castro have all tried to keep prices low through government fiat, it always ends badly.
It’s better than Mugabe, Chavez and Castro, Obama trying to keep prices high through government fiat….. it always ends badly.
Remember…. Falling prices of all items is positively bullish and good for the economy.
People like Whac cannot show how the world will be supplied with oil at $40, $50, $60, $70 or even $80 a barrel. Sorry, the fact that it takes $95 a barrel to make a decent profit on oil sands does not prove me wrong, it proves me right. $100 a barrel is not a bubble price, it is the new reality as we use up finite resources.
And one day you may be right.
Unless technology comes up with more and cheaper sources of energy (which it will).
Unless technology comes up with more and cheaper sources of energy (which it will).
Yes, it will and then economic growth will be renewed. But we do not live in that world yet. The simple reality is if we had a dramatic breakthrough in say nuclear fusion today, it would be twenty years or more before we would see any power from it. For the next twenty years, we better be prepared to spend more money on energy and for getting from here to there.
Unless technology comes up with more and cheaper sources of energy (which it will).
Molten-salt reactors.
A peak oil Republican?? What next? Global warming is real?? Creationism is a fable????
Just say yes to cheaper gas.
no doubt
I get a feeling it wont last long. Remember last time?
Understandable, Windows 8/8.1 is pretty haram…
——————————-
Al-Qaeda Magazine Listed Slain French Satirist as 2013 Target; Current Issue Names Bernanke, Gates
Pajamas Media | 01/07/2015 | Bridget Johnson
Charlie Hebdo editor Stephane Charbonnier, who was among the 12 killed in a terrorist attack on the magazine’s Paris office today, was included on the above “most wanted” list in the Winter 2013 issue of al-Qaeda’s Inspire magazine.
The list also included British writer Salman Rushdie, Dutch politician Geer Wilders, American pastor Terry Jones, Swedish cartoonist Lars Vilks, Danish cartoonist Kurt Westergaard, former Jyllands-Posten (the newspaper that ran Westergaard’s Mohammed cartoons) editor-in-chief Carsten Luste and creative editor Flemming Rose, National American Coptic Assembly leader Morris Sadik, Aayan Hirsi Ali, and American cartoonist Molly Norris, who created “Everybody Draw Mohammed Day” in 2010 after South Park creators Trey Parker and Matt Stone were threatened for showing a cartoon likeness of Mohammed.
The latest issue of Inspire, released around Christmas, includes notes referencing the deaths of Michael Brown, Eric Garner and Tamir Rice, and suggests that a March gas explosion that leveled two Harlem apartment buildings may have not been an accident.
The Winter 2014 issue — an “open source jihad special” — is largely devoted to lauding recent “lone mujahid” attacks and encouraging future lone wolves, as the U.S. government calls them, to try a new al-Qaeda recipe for a bomb they claim can fool airport security.
The magazine hails Fort Hood shooter Nidal Hasan as conducting an “inghimaasi” attack — “immersing oneself deep into enemy lines to inflict damage or attain Shahada” — and lauds the lone jihadists as “scattered Mujahideen” whose effects can be powerful enough to “surpass that of the first legion,” or rank-and-file members of terrorist organizations.
Another name singled out is Bill Gates.
“Wealthy entrepreneurs or company owners” have “the largest capitals, the greatest investors in America. One of them is William Henry ‘Bill’ Gates, the current chairman of Microsoft. He has a great influence in the American economy.”
Everyone Must Check In
“Je Suis Charlie”
FEMA Region VII - all is very cold here.
Warming shelters anyone!!!?
Just head down to Obama’s old neighborhood bathhouse, it’ll be nice and warm there.
“all is very cold here.”
Jonathan Gruber’s stupid American Climate
“This bill was written in a tortured way to make sure CBO did not score the mandate as taxes. If CBO scored the mandate as taxes, the bill dies. Okay, so it’s written to do that. In terms of risk rated subsidies, if you had a law which said that healthy people are going to pay in – you made explicit healthy people pay in and sick people get money, it would not have passed… Lack of transparency is a huge political advantage. And basically, call it the stupidity of the American voter or whatever, but basically that was really really critical for the thing to pass… Look, I wish Mark was right that we could make it all transparent, but I’d rather have this law than not.”
Sorry - Region V - I am so….confused!!
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/First_Barbary_War
“In March 1785, Thomas Jefferson and John Adams went to London to negotiate with Tripoli’s envoy, Ambassador Sidi Haji Abdrahaman (or Sidi Haji Abdul Rahman Adja). When they enquired “concerning the ground of the pretensions to make war upon nations who had done them no injury”, the ambassador replied:
It was written in their Koran, that all nations which had not acknowledged the Prophet were sinners, whom it was the right and duty of the faithful to plunder and enslave; and that every mussulman who was slain in this warfare was sure to go to paradise. “
Where was President Obama BORN?
“Where was President Obama BORN?”
Bernadine Dohrn and Bill Ayers living room.
That sounds really Regional
#PortHuronStatement
rick santelli fired up again:
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000344658
Does liesman have any credibility left?
“U.S. refineries can’t handle the light oil and condensate from the shale plays so it has to be blended with heavier imported crudes and exported as refined products. Domestic producers could make more money faster if they could just export the light oil without going to all of the trouble to blend and refine it.
This, by the way, is the heart of the Keystone XL pipeline debate. We’re not planning to use the oil domestically but will blend that heavy oil with condensate from shale plays, refine it and export petroleum products. Keystone is about feedstock.”
this dude seems to know what he is talking about:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-07/real-cause-low-oil-prices-interview-arthur-berman
How many HBB readers would reconsider buying a home if you had to pay lower FHA mortgage premiums?
Obama to Cut FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums to Boost Homeownership
By Clea Benson and Jonathan Allen Jan 7, 2015 11:00 AM PT
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
In an effort to expand homeownership among lower-income buyers, President Barack Obama plans to cut mortgage-insurance premiums charged by a government agency.
The annual fees the Federal Housing Administration charges to guarantee mortgages will be cut by 0.5 percentage point, to 0.85 percent of the loan balance, Julian Castro, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said today during a conference call with reporters. Under the new premium structure, FHA estimates that 2 million borrowers will be able to save an average of $900 annually over the next three years if they purchase or refinance homes.
Shares of private insurers that compete with the FHA fell on the news, which Obama plans to discuss during a visit to Phoenix tomorrow.
“We believe this is striking a very good balance between being fiscally responsible and also enhancing homeownership opportunities,” Castro said.
…
More free sh*t for the Free Sh*t Army, thanks Obama
liar loans up next? why do they keep pushing overprices assets on the poor?
This is part of the Democratic party’s central political strategy:
1) Convince low income households to mire themselves in subprime mortgage debt.
2) Use the term “Affordable Housing” to suck them into thinking they will be able to repay the loans.
3) Wait a few years until the next recession wipes out most of the low income households’ jobs. Result: FORECLOSURE CRISIS!
4) Pass “SAVE OUR HOMES” bailout measures to rescue the low-income households from the consequences of their decisions to buy homes they couldn’t afford.
5) Count on bailed-out households to vote Democrat in the next election.
See how simple that is?
My extended family owns a few homes in a subprime part of the country which we hope to sell in the next few years. Assuming a 30-year mortgage at 4%, $900 less payments a year ($75 less a month) financed over 30 years could add upwards of $15,000 to the sale price of one of these lovely homes.
CNBC: Low Oil Prices Pave the Way for New Carbon Taxes
Treasury Secretary published column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax
by Rob Garver | The Fiscal Times | January 7, 2015
When prominent members of both political parties talk about the possibility of taxing fossil fuels – you know something serious has shifted in U.S. politics.
On Monday morning, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a largely pro-business Democrat, published a column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax.
“The case for carbon taxes has long been compelling,” Summers wrote. “With the recent steep fall in oil prices and associated declines in other energy prices, it has become overwhelming. There is room for debate about the size of the tax and about how the proceeds should be deployed. But there should be no doubt that, given the current zero tax rate on carbon, increased taxation would be desirable.”
Summers’ call for a carbon tax came just a day after prominent Republicans discussed the possibility of an increase in the federal gas tax to shore up the Federal Highway Trust Fund, which will run out of money this May.
Taxes are easier to sell when their purpose is to save the planet, instead of merely to collect revenue.
Have the oil and U.S. stock markets stopped bleeding, or was today just a breather with more carnage to come?
How I stopped worrying and learned to love falling oil…
The Tell
Why stock investors should stop worrying and learn to love falling oil
Published: Jan 7, 2015 3:52 p.m. ET
Oil, stock price coziness heading for divorce: Convergex’s Colas
By Wallace Witkowski
Reporter
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) — Falling oil prices have been blamed for a recent weakness in stocks, but the high degree of correlation between the two asset classes is actually weakening toward their historical levels. Meaning that oil and stock values are likely to start moving independently.
That appears to be a “silver lining” for stock investors, according to Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at Convergex. Going back to 1973, the long-term correlation between stock prices and oil prices is almost zero, or negative 1.1%.
That means, on average, for more than 40 years, oil prices and stock prices have moved independent of each other. The problem is, that average is arrived at by wide swings, so there have been distinct periods where stocks and oil prices have moved in tandem or in opposite directions.
…
Renowned Trader Hall Sees $40 Oil ‘Absolute Price Floor’
By Bradley Olson and Simone Foxman
Jan 7, 2015 6:35 PM PT
Photographer: Katya Kazakina/Bloomberg
Oil prices have almost bottomed out and “some recovery” is likely by the second half of the year as demand picks up, commodity hedge fund manager Andrew J. Hall told investors.
Crude could trade in the $40-a-barrel range in 2015, close to “an absolute price floor,” the head of Astenbeck Capital Management wrote in a Jan. 2 letter obtained by Bloomberg News. A significant amount of U.S. and Canadian production can’t cover the cash costs of operating at that price, he said.
…
Some folks are making a lot of dough betting oil will drop below $30!
The Tell
Some traders are betting on $20 oil
Published: Jan 5, 2015 2:21 p.m. ET
Sub-$30 put volume is quite high: Schork
How low can it go?
By William Watts
Reporter
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Here’s how bearish some traders are getting on oil these days.
Even before Nymex WTI crude futures on Monday dipped below $50 a barrel in the latest stage of the crude rout, Stephen Schork, editor of the widely followed Schork Report, took note of trading in well out-of-the-money put options (puts give you the right, but not the obligation, to sell the underlying futures contract at a specific strike price).
Unsurprisingly, open interest (the number of open contracts) in $50 strike-price puts on the February WTI futures contract (CLG5, +0.58%) had risen to 22,537 as of Friday’s close from 193 contracts at the beginning of December. Open interest on $45 puts rose from 8 to 36,113, while open interest in $40 puts rose from 1 to 9,864.
Here’s where it gets interesting: Open interest on $30 puts on the March futures contract (CLH5, +0.51%) rose to 2,127 from 34, while $30 puts on the June contract (CLM5, +0.27%) rose from 35 to 51,252. In addition, there has even been some light trading in June $20 puts, with open interest at 176 as of Friday’s close.
“In other words, bets on sub-$30 crude oil in June are now 1.7 times greater than physical inventory at the Nymex terminal complex in Cushing,” Schork said in a note, referring to the Oklahoma delivery point for WTI oil.
…
Does heightened investor fear that a crash is on the way make a crash more or less likely to occur?
Markets More: Stock Market Crash Chart Of The Day
More And More Investors Are Convinced A Stock-Market Crash Is Coming
Andy Kiersz
Jan. 6, 2015, 2:02 PM
Investor confidence that the US will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months has dropped dramatically since last spring.
The Yale School of Management publishes a monthly Crash Confidence Index. The index shows the proportion of investors who believe we will avoid a stock-market crash in the next six months.
Yale points out that “crash confidence reached its all-time low, both for individual and institutional investors, in early 2009, just months after the Lehman crisis, reflecting the turmoil in the credit markets and the strong depression fears generated by that event, and is plausibly related to the very low stock market valuations then.”
After the darkest days of the financial crisis, investors became more confident that we wouldn’t have a crash. But since May 2014, the index has been falling again. As of last May, about 41% of institutional investors and 39% of individual investors were confident there would be no crash in the next six months.
By December, that confidence collapsed: Less than a quarter of institutional investors and less than a third of individual investors believed that stocks wouldn’t crash.
Investors are starting to worry that a crash could be coming, and Yale’s chart of the index shows the decline in confidence in the second half of 2014.
On the bright side, this may be a contrarian indicator. Its record low of 2009 coincided with the beginning of the current bull market.
If you’re having trouble interpreting the chart, think of it this way: a low reading means fear of a crash is high, and a high reading means fear of a crash is low.
…
“FOX news says Obama caused the price decline. They also said the high prices were his fault as well. http://thedailybanter.com/2014... How could fox news be wrong?”
Does DannyBoy get his economic news from FOX?!
Are terrorists gradually eroding the hard-won freedoms of the French and American Revolutions?