January 7, 2015

A Reversal From The Days Of The Boom

Bloomberg reports on Canada. “Canadians who last year brushed off predictions of a real estate slowdown and kept buying houses are increasingly joining the doubters. The nation’s households are the least optimistic since May 2013 that home prices will keep rising, according to weekly polling data compiled by Nanos Research for Bloomberg. The share of survey respondents predicting higher prices fell to 31.1 percent last week, from as high as 47 percent in July. The survey results suggest policy-maker warnings about overvalued home prices are starting to sink in, amplified by plunging prices for crude oil, the nation’s biggest export.”

“The Bank of Canada estimates that house prices are 10 percent to 30 percent overvalued. That didn’t stop sales and prices from rising through most of 2014. ‘Any negative changes in real estate values coupled with low oil prices could be a one-two punch for Canadian consumer sentiment,’ said Nik Nanos, Ottawa-based chairman of Nanos Research Group.”

The Globe & Mail. “Collapsing oil prices could force Suncor Energy Inc. and its partners to defer spending at the $13.5-billion Fort Hills oil sands development, a project that has already been delayed for years due to fears over high costs. Today’s crude prices under $50 a barrel (U.S.) are well below the break-even level required for the northern Alberta project, where production is still two years off but spending is slated to be at its peak this year and next, analysts say.”

“The profitability of Fort Hills was questionable when the companies gave the project a green light, says Samir Kayande, analyst at ITG Investment Research in Calgary. Last year, Mr. Kayande calculated that the project breaks even with West Texas intermediate crude at $90 a barrel. Suncor had said it expected a 13-per-cent after-tax rate of return assuming West Texas intermediate oil prices of $95. ‘Given that the original decision to proceed was not economic, I don’t know what would make you stop,’ he said. ‘Now it’s really uneconomic so maybe it’s worth stopping.’”

From Global News. “Cutbacks in the oil patch have been the first shoe to drop from a collapse in oil prices. Alberta’s real estate market now appears to be the second, with new sales data pointing toward a chilly spring in Calgary and elsewhere in the province. ‘Fissures are starting to show in Calgary’s housing market,’ Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at Bank of Montreal said a day after the biggest city in the oil-rich province released monthly sales data for December.”

“Sales are down 7.5 per cent versus a year ago, while new listings have ‘gushed’ 42 per cent higher – a sign homeowners are racing to sell before market conditions deteriorate. Prices still rose a strong 8.8 per cent in Calgary last month, but the gains ‘looks to slow sharply, if not turn negative this year,’ Guatieri said.”

“In Edmonton, the picture isn’t all that much different: Prices are still rising but under the surface lies a drop off in sales activity coupled with a surge in new listings. The number of sales that took place last month in the province’s second biggest centre was flat compared to December of 2013, the city’s real estate board said. The number of homes hitting the market shot up 20 per cent.”

“The share of survey respondents from the province who said they expect home prices to continue to rise shrunk to under a third last week. In July, about half said home prices would continue to climb. ‘[Confidence among] households in the Prairies, whose expectations earlier in the year were the most optimistic, have plummeted and are now lower than in the Atlantic provinces,’ Robert Lawrie, an economist at Bloomberg, said.”

From the CBC. “Tracey Penney has never worked in the oil industry in Western Canada, but knows about 50 people who do, and are worried about their futures. ‘They’re really scared,’ said Penney, a resident of Charlottetown, a small community nestled inside Terra Nova National Park in eastern Newfoundland. Of the roughly 200 people who live in Charlottetown, about a dozen travel regularly to keep high-paying jobs in Alberta and other oil-rich western provinces. Penney also has deep connections to Robert’s Arm, a community of 800 in Green Bay, where many of her friends are now having difficulty finding work in the oil patch. ‘Nobody is hiring,’ said Penney.”

“There are also signs of a downturn in Fort McMurray, where media reports indicate rents are going down, and more and more For Sale signs are going up. It’s a reversal from the days of the oil boom, when companies were scouring the globe for workers and exorbitant housing prices were the norm.”

“Penney said some of her friends who relocated to Alberta over the years have also fallen on hard times. ‘They’ve bought houses and they don’t know what to be doing. They can’t sell them and they can’t come home because there’s nothing here for them to do,’ she said.”

RSS feed


Comment by Dudgeon Bludgeon
2015-01-07 03:22:11

“where media reports indicate rents are going down, and more and more For Sale signs are going up.”

“My CBC coworkers and I are sitting here with our crystal sets receiving faint broadcasts from deep into the far North. We can barely make out the Dots and dashes but from what we are hearing it must be a grim, grim situation. How will the survivors manage? Price cuts? Staging? Cannibalization? We can only imagine - to our horror!”

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-07 07:10:20

Hap, hap, hap, Happy New Year.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 03:29:35

‘BC Assessment’s newly-released numbers show that houses are getting more expensive while condos sink in value in Langley. It was a similar story in Langley City, where single family homes were valued at $482,000, up from $456,000 the year before, townhouses were up to $294,000 from $285,000, while condos slid from $198,000 to $188,000.’

‘Nearby communities like Abbotsford, Maple Ridge, and Pitt Meadows also saw similar changes. Townhouse values also slid in Maple Ridge and Pitt Meadows’

‘The price of a typical home is based on market trends and can be affected by many variables, noted Raj Sandhu, an acting assessor in the Fraser Valley region. The dropping condo values may be an effect of supply and demand, Sandhu said. “What we’ve seen is a large amount of supply in recent years, which may have led to that,” he said.’

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-07 07:13:54

Condos almost always follow the LIFO accounting rules of appreciation. Last-In, First-Out

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 07:21:35

At times like this, checking out may be problematic.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 07:40:14

What was that expression?

“Get what you can get for your house today because it’s going to be less tomorrow for many years to come.”

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Puggs
2015-01-07 14:43:21

…this IS your last chance at a winning lottery ticket. Better cash it in now!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 05:49:45

……. and down through the floor goes a craterin’ crude.


Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 06:00:50

CA Housing Demand Craters 13% YoY; Falls For Fifth Year Straight


Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 06:03:58

Former Realtor CEO Jailed

“At a hearing Tuesday, Frank was made aware of pending charges against her that include one count of theft of $100,000 to $1,000,000, seven counts of identity theft, seven counts of forgery and seven counts of criminal impersonation.”


Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 06:11:46

Trail, Oregon List Prices Free Fall 26% YoY As Housing Correction Gains Speed


Comment by Professor Bear
2015-01-07 06:23:29

Is the Keystone pipeline a no-go with oil undrr $50/bbl?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 06:55:40

“As Republicans officially took control of both chambers of the U.S. Congress on Tuesday, they quickly began laying the groundwork for approval of Keystone with hearings beginning Wednesday.

But Obama immediately announced through his press secretary Josh Earnest that he will veto the bill should it pass both houses.”


Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 06:48:54

“Penney said some of her friends who relocated to Alberta over the years have also fallen on hard times. ‘They’ve bought houses and they don’t know what to be doing. They can’t sell them and they can’t come home because there’s nothing here for them to do,’ she said.”

But it’s cheaper than rent! And we’re talking about houses here Penny. Houses just stand there and make you rich. We all know how strong Canadian banking is. There’s no subprime in Canada and don’t forget; it’s not the US.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 06:54:30

That’s a beaut right there. When there is fraud, graft and dumb borrowed money in all four directions top to bottom, the answer is simple: Hold onto your dollars.

Comment by Dudgeon Bludgeon
2015-01-07 07:18:43

“‘They’ve bought houses and they don’t know what to be doing. They can’t sell them and they can’t come home because there’s nothing here for them to do,’ she said.”

Can you imagine? Exiled to Alberta and into a house you don’t know what to be doing?

Is Penny’s last name be Solzhenitsyn?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 07:24:24

“Hold onto your dollars”

Loonies, maybe not so much.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 06:52:33

‘Private junior oilsands developer Laricina Energy Ltd. warns it may not be able to continue as a “going concern” after defaulting on terms of a deal last winter to sell $150 million in notes to the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board.’

‘The cash-strapped company, which launched a strategic alternatives process in November to look at options which could include a corporate sale or merger, said in a news release on its website that its fourth quarter 2014 thermal oilsands production of 1,255 barrels per day missed its promised level by about 18 per cent.’

“Missing this production covenant is an event of default for which there is no cure period under the indenture,” it said in the release. “As a result, the notes are required to be reclassified as a current liability at Dec. 31, 2014, which causes the company to be in default of a related working capital covenant under the indenture.”

‘The $200-billion CPPIB is Laricina’s largest equity investor at 15.3 per cent thanks to a $250-million injection about four years ago.’

‘Laricina is producing bitumen from demonstration projects in the Grosmont formation at Saleski and the Grand Rapids formation at Germain in northern Alberta. Most of Alberta’s current oilsands production comes from the better-known McMurray formation.’

‘The company said it had cash or equivalents of about $178 million as of Dec. 31. It is seeking to raise at least an additional $350 million to allow it to build its $520-million, 10,700-barrel-per-day Saleski commercial project but said in the release it could report no results as yet from its strategic process, led by advisers Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital Markets and Peters & Co.’

‘Schmidt said current lower oil prices have removed “casual” investors from the market but it continues to talk to parties with a “very specific interest” in investing in thermal oilsands.’

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 07:05:51

“very specific interest” in investing

You have to be “serious” to invest in a ledger that is dripping in red ink.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-07 07:19:39

…or have a loan to own strategy.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 06:55:23

‘Suncor had said it expected a 13-per-cent after-tax rate of return assuming West Texas intermediate oil prices of $95. ‘Given that the original decision to proceed was not economic, I don’t know what would make you stop,’ he said. ‘Now it’s really uneconomic so maybe it’s worth stopping.’

So it was a sketchy deal with oil much higher. I wonder if really low interest rates had anything to do with making such a risky bet. Janet? Carney?

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 07:13:48

That plus some graphs with a couple of price points extrapolated out to infinity.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-07 07:20:54


Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-01-07 09:20:19

‘Now it’s really uneconomic so maybe it’s worth stopping.’

Nahhhh- full steam ahead!

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 07:02:53

‘Things are surprisingly quite well in Alberta, despite oil losing more than half of its value in the past few months. Housing prices are still setting new highs, even in the luxury market; new skyscrapers are being built; cars are jamming up roads just to get into shopping mall parking lots; there are waiting lists for new luxury vehicles; pricey private schools are once again near capacity; and there are few deals to be had among airlines and hotels due to the very robust demand for travel.’

‘A common response when surveying the marketplace is that the broader equity market in the U.S. is at record highs, so the recent weakness in oil prices is likely only temporary. However, being contrarians, we wonder what happens when consumers suddenly wake up and smell the bitumen?’

‘Interestingly, the faster the drop in oil, the quicker the recovery, as pointed out by oilpatch veteran Jim Gray in a recent Calgary Herald interview. But the current correction is showing little signs of bottoming and is now 195 days in length, which is the longest over the past 15 years.’

‘This trend isn’t encouraging as oil prices have already fallen 52%, the second-largest drop over the same period.’

‘The good news is that many of these companies are now trading at 2008 financial crisis levels, so there are some excellent value opportunities out there for patient, longterm investors willing to ride out the current storm.’

‘That said, we are worried about the level of complacency in other sectors as investors continue to shrug offany potential impact from weaker commodity prices.’

‘The Canadian banking sector, for example, is factoring in a similar earnings growth rate to last year, when the financial services index posted a 10.5% total return. What happens if there is a material slowdown in the red-hot western Canadian housing market?’

‘Additionally, a lot of the banks’ capital market business last year was generated in the first half from a recordsetting IPO market, secondary market and MA activity in energy. Also, what about the overall consumer market in Canada? Will it not be impacted by a weaker Western Canada?’

‘According to Western Economic Diversification Canada, Western Canada accounted for 34% of Canada’s real gross domestic product by industry and 40% of Canada’s exported goods in 2011.’

‘Apparently, investors are not too worried: the SP/TSX capped consumer staples index posted a whopping 48.3% total return last year.’

Comment by Dudgeon Bludgeon
2015-01-07 07:30:29

There’s a lot of talk about “last year” in that there.

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-01-07 09:23:19

‘Things are surprisingly quite well in Alberta, despite oil losing more than half of its value in the past few months.’

What, did he think everything would be in a shambles overnight? It takes time for the momentum of bad fortune to build.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 09:36:25

Yeah, I can relate to this. When prices went south in the 80’s, everybody went out of their way to come up with reasons this wouldn’t be affected, or that wouldn’t be so bad. And of course, prices were going back up. I’ve noticed some of these quotes out of Houston/Texas are the most bearish, where the newbies in North Dakota and Canada are waving off the downturn. Do they really think we got here overnight? Whatever the motivations of OPEC, have they achieved their goals? A few dozen rigs are shut down. It’ll take months and years to shake out the weakest hands. It’ll flow through to everything. Retail, banking, housing, you can’t even get your head around such a sudden hole in the economy.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 10:21:55

“And of course, prices were going back up.”

That brings to mind one of our more prolific posters!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 11:18:14

“That brings to mind one of our more prolific posters!”

So should this;

but but but…. ‘housing hasn’t cratered’.

The reality is that housing has been cratering. It’s all a matter of the mental obstacles ones wallet creates.

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 07:26:04

‘Wealthy buyers, baby boomers and foreign investors went on such a spirited real estate spending spree in 2014, they are “driving the GTA market more than ever” and making even the $1 million-plus condo a hot commodity.’

‘The number of Toronto houses and condos that sold for over $1 million in 2014 surged by 38 per cent over 2013 as “robust consumer demand” and a shortage of listings continued to drive house prices skyward, according annual Top-Tier Real Estate Report released Wednesday by luxury realtor Sotheby’s International Realty Canada.’

‘That far outstripped the 25 per cent growth in million-plus sales in Canada’s priciest market, Vancouver, according to the report, which also looks at Montreal — recovering since the election of a Liberal majority government — and Calgary, facing uncertainty in the face of slumping oil prices.’

“There are about 270,000 high-net worth families in Canada and there are more of them driving this market than ever before, especially in the GTA,” says Sotheby’s Canada president and CEO Ross McCredie. “We don’t see any black clouds on the horizon, except maybe in Alberta. And that’s going to be a question of consumer confidence” in the face of slumping oil prices.’

‘In fact, some foreign investors are increasingly looking to Toronto because it’s still more affordable than Vancouver, he added.’ “The real story, maybe more in the GTA than anywhere else in Canada, is that the baby boomer is largely driving this market right now. They have a lot of money, they are inheriting a lot of money and they are giving away a lot of money. They don’t really care if that condo they buy in Yorkville goes up or down. This is about lifestyle and not having to commute and helping their kids get into the housing market.”

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 07:52:01

“CEO Ross McCredie”

Ross, is that pronounced Mac Greedy? You sure seem to be flying high.

The Canadians I know are not so giddy. Their currency has lost round about 20% of late and trips to the grocery are increasingly unbearable. Their gas is still $4/gal. Houses aren’t selling so well, and yes that really matters.

Comment by Patrick
2015-01-07 18:50:20

Blue Skye

You have a good grasp on the realities in Canada at the moment.

Oil and Gas are important to Canada, but the real economic engine still remains in Ontario - even though Ontario has lost so many manufacturing jobs.

I have a broken crystal ball, a ragged four leaf clover, and a horse shoe - - - but none of them are telling me the future.

Btw, have you ever tried ski dooing on the northen lakes you have travelled on in Canada? ie Trent

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 07:26:23

“CMBS Delinquency Rate Sees Biggest Rise In Two Years”


Refinance asap. Hide that negative equity quickly!

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 07:38:38

Denver, CO Sale Prices Dive 9% YoY; Sellers Slash As Inventory Looms


Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 07:45:01

‘Three oil-patch states, including Colorado, that logged the highest home price appreciation in the U.S. in November may not see the same appreciation in 2015, a Core Logic economist said Tuesday.’

“After decelerating for most of the year, home price growth has been holding firm between a 5 percent and 6 percent growth rate for the last four months,” CoreLogic deputy chief economist Sam Khater said in a statement. “And three of the top four states with the highest price appreciation are energy intensive and had been benefiting from the energy boom, which is currently receding as oil prices trend downward.”

‘The five states with the highest home price appreciation, including short sales and foreclosures, were Michigan, up 9 percent; Colorado, 8.8 percent; Texas, 8.5 percent; North Dakota, 7.9 percent; and Nevada, 7.9 percent.’

‘Colorado, North Dakota and Texas may see some downward pressure on prices in 2015, Khater said.’

‘And that’s not necessarily a bad thing in Colorado — at least for now, Broomfield economist Gary Horvath said. Home prices on the Front Range, where communities have been riding an oil and gas boom, have gotten so high that it is difficult for people to find a place to live, he said. “I think that is a concern,” said Horvath. “Colorado’s average wages are higher than the nation. But if you can’t afford housing, that is problematic.”

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 07:48:55

Yesterday I was reading all these articles about oil and I found one about a oil field fittings steel producer idling 2 plants. 170 layoffs in Houston and 600 in Ohio. With all this attention, why has no one asked Fannie or Freddie what their exposure is to these markets? We know “million dollar” house sales are through the roof in Dallas and Houston. What securities are these loans going into? Just a hint for a reporter that might be lurking out there.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 08:41:30

I am wondering how long it should take to start seeing stories about bank problems because of defaults. Just wondering if the Fed is soaking up this trash as well.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 08:45:39

It makes sense as they created the trash after all. And why not? They’ve already carved out $4 trillion out of a $17 trillion economy and tossed it into a blackhole.What’s another trillion?

The Fed knows best. You can trust them.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-01-07 09:28:06

The Fed IS the economy.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 10:23:21

“The Fed IS the economy.”

So they would have everyone who will buy into it believe.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 10:39:28

They say it is difficult to herd cats. I suppose the same would hold true for wildcatters.

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 07:47:17

Keller, TX(Dallas) Sale Prices Turn Negative YoY; Plunge 12% QoQ As Housing Correction Accelerates


Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 08:29:26

‘The dropping price of oil has a silver lining when it comes to operation costs for the City of St. Albert. While the provincial government gets ready to try and patch a multi-billion dollar hole in its budget – oil dropped below $50 a barrel for the first time since 2009 earlier this week – consumers have been realizing savings at the gas pumps.’

‘With a fleet of vehicles and buses to fuel, the City of St. Albert could stand to save as well. “The falling price of oil will have a positive impact on our cost side,” said city manager Patrick Draper.’

‘While Draper said the city itself is in a strong financial position, he noted there could be negative impacts on the local market when it comes to housing prices or energy-industry dependent small businesses.’

“I think there needs to be a bit of concern for people in the community whose livelihood is tied to the energy sector and what that might do to entrepreneurs who own small businesses, so I think we need to as a community stay cognizant of that, that there may be some people going through tougher times,” Draper said.’

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 08:37:34

Is it safe to assume the all-cash Canadian buyers are no longer snapping up investment properties in the U.S. at this point?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 08:39:08

Snapping up default notices?

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-01-07 09:29:28

Maybe the Canadians are selling US real estate to the Chinese?

Comment by Ben Jones
2015-01-07 08:38:59

IIRC, this was the housing market with the biggest price increase in the world, earlier this year:

‘Despite the lack of job opportunity and over 80% unemployment; 70% poverty rate, Okonjo-Iweala in a reply to the House of Representatives on issues surrounding the 2014 budget said Jonathan administration had created 1.6m jobs in 2013. As I had asked on many occasions: Madam Minister where are the jobs?’

‘Madam Minister had consistently maintained, that the Nigeria economy is in a good shape. Her stand was further justified by Nigeria’s rebased Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of about $432 billion compared to that of South Africa which stood at $370 billion at the end of 2013 making Nigeria the biggest economy in Africa.’

‘One thing that cannot stand the test of time is lies. Shortly after the widely celebrated rebased and biggest economy in Africa together with the hosting of World Economic Forum, the very bottom of the economy she manages collapsed: the fall in oil prices. Less than a month to the fall in oil price, the self-acclaimed largest economy in Africa is in for it. The economy has gone bad, both federal and state government cannot pay salaries and our currency devalued.’

‘May I remind the Coordinating Minister of economy that regarding our power generation; we had 4,500 megawatts (MW) daily in 2007 when we had no coordinating Minister. Now we are struggling to have 3000 megawatts (MW) daily. Lest she forgets, in 2007, our foreign reserve was $47 billion. At the moment we have below $45 billion. This is the situation despite the entire crude oil sale under her watch and her coordinating capacity. May I also remind the Coordinating Minister, the Excess Crude Account, in 2007, was $24 billion; today, we are left with at about $2 billion while some Nigerians including the state governors had argued the account is empty. In 2007 without an economic coordinator, we had zero % foreign debts; at present we have over $9 billion debt and we continue to borrow. Thus, what exactly has she coordinated?’

Comment by Guillotine Renovator
2015-01-07 09:30:56

Does Jingle Bail have a few condos in Nigeria?

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-08 03:21:24

I do not have holdings in Nigeria.

I would like to remind the Economic Coordinator of Guillotine Renovation that the first rule of owning and managing residential property is to be able to drive by it any day on your way to work.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-08 03:34:00

I should also remind her in 2007, in my market, housing cost $700,000 w/no down payment. By 2010, it was $250,000 with 25% down. Today, it is $400,000, with 3% down. So madam, may I ask what exactly are you managing?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 06:35:20

$400k is your fantasy price that gets you out from underwater Jingle_Fraud. Right now its $230k and falling.

Have the wage garnishments started yet? Good luck.


Comment by cactus
2015-01-07 10:16:23

Amnesty International says oil giant Royal Dutch Shell will pay a landmark $83 million settlement to a fishing community in the Niger Delta for two oil spills there in 2008. The payout is the result of a three-year legal battle in Britain.

Royal Dutch Shell has agreed to pay more than $53 million to 15,600 people in Bodo in Nigeria’s oil-producing southeast. Another $30 million of the settlement goes to the community as a whole.

Comment by Puggs
2015-01-07 09:38:17

Bull $h#tter’s gonna $h!t.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 10:24:48

Specuvestors gonna dump cratering assets.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-01-07 12:11:07

there are lots of wicked smat people on this board- did any one predict oil and post about it ?

Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 12:20:35

I was thinking about that today myself. The irony is that it was right there in front of everyone. The obvious.

Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 21:58:56

It’s just as obvious that housing will eventually follow the same path as oil — straight down the tubes.

Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-08 03:27:26

No….. it is not obvious. There are many fundamental differences between housing and oil. Housing values certainly fluctuate and oil markets influence the values, but they are two very different markets with different characteristics.

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 06:36:52

Houses depreciate Jingle_Fraud. A painful reality for you.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 13:32:59

Only “smat” if we could have put all the pieces together, and I honestly do not think all the pieces are visible yet.

We did say here over and over:

Demand for oil was being grossly distorted by the building boom (energy intensive).

The building boom was biggest in China, financed by the biggest credit expansion on the planet. Gross overbuilding of everything.

Iron and coal are falling which points to China seizing up.

and…Buckle up.

It was hard to hear this most of the time over the crowing of the China pimping.

Comment by taxpayers
2015-01-07 13:40:37

that was so long ago- folks here watch markets closely so I’m surprised

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 13:48:30

What’s the next big surprise?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-07 14:01:50

I begrudgingly say it now but I told you guys a few years ago that the $1.79/gal gasoline we saw in 2008, we’d see again. We’re very close and I maintain there was room to go lower then and now.

Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-07 15:33:00

Last time a billion Fang nu jumped in to pull the credit cart out of the ditch. Where are they going to find something like that again?

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Jingle Male
2015-01-08 03:39:01

Way to go HA. You were correct once!

That makes you almost as good as a broken clock, which is correct twice a day!

(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-08 05:41:24

We are all in suspense here, waiting to observe something much more significant. All except for one cuckoo clock, constantly crowing.

Name (required)
E-mail (required - never shown publicly)
Your Comment (smaller size | larger size)
You may use <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong> in your comment.

Trackback responses to this post