The President is here in Phx today to discuss housing, specifically his loosening of standards, Mo Credik, lowering the FHA mortgage insurance premiums, etc.
…. easy credit ripoffs,
ain’t we lucky we got em,
Good Times.
“he was maybe making 3000.00 / month pushing dirt”
Not likely if he was an employee. IIRC, less than half of that was considered a very good wage.
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Comment by In Colorado
2015-01-08 10:59:35
My dad was a tool and die maker in Soc Cal in the 60’s. IIRC he made just over $200 a week back then. We lived pretty well. The monthly nut on the house was about $100.
Comment by HBB_Rocks
2015-01-08 12:39:06
My in-laws in So Cal bought their house in 1950something, for $25k when the nearby beach was called tin can beach and not surf city. They are in their late ’70s now, and currently owe more than $250k on it.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 12:50:01
Like I said…. a state full of degenerate gamblers.
Obama to Cut FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums to Boost Homeownership
By Clea Benson and Jonathan Allen Jan 7, 2015 11:00 AM PT
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
In an effort to expand homeownership among lower-income buyers, President Barack Obama plans to cut mortgage-insurance premiums charged by a government agency.
The annual fees the Federal Housing Administration charges to guarantee mortgages will be cut by 0.5 percentage point, to 0.85 percent of the loan balance, Julian Castro, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said today during a conference call with reporters. Under the new premium structure, FHA estimates that 2 million borrowers will be able to save an average of $900 annually over the next three years if they purchase or refinance homes.
Shares of private insurers that compete with the FHA fell on the news, which Obama plans to discuss during a visit to Phoenix tomorrow.
“We believe this is striking a very good balance between being fiscally responsible and also enhancing homeownership opportunities,” Castro said.
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Comment by Overbanked
2015-01-08 11:08:14
This sounds like it involves collection of revenues and/or appropriating expenditures - doesn’t Congress have some say in this policy?
FHA is the only government agency that operates entirely from its self-generated income and costs the taxpayers nothing. The proceeds from the mortgage insurance paid by the homeowners are captured in an account that is used to operate the program entirely.”
The President is here in Phx today to discuss housing, specifically his loosening of standards, Mo Credik, lowering the FHA mortgage insurance premiums, etc.
Still pushing on a string. Housing sales will continue to fall.
Don’t you think homes are overpriced there? I guess they are building a bass pro shops right off sierra college blvd. As usual they get another walmart and target too.
I guess the kmart off of taylor road finally went under . I like rocklin and roseville but 400,000.00 homes are a little crazy. I’m sure 100k of that is permits and fees.
That area is the nicest of placer county unless you can afford granite bay.
Granite Bay is a nice place with great weather, but the cost of admission for gangsta-free living is too high for even two incomes. A trust fund child would be comfortable there, but the coast would get my vote given a choice.
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 08:29:34
What’s the specific gravity of a house in Granite Bay?
Comment by In Colorado
2015-01-08 09:44:14
Granite Bay is a nice place with great weather, but the cost of admission for gangsta-free living is too high for even two incomes.
This is one of the reasons we left California. Too much freaking crime. Insane traffic and cost of living were other factors.
Comment by Avocado
2015-01-08 12:21:16
Los Angeles is NOT all of CA.
I dont think people in Carmel worry about traffic and crime.
People in Summerland are happy.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 12:28:05
Leave it to Lola to speak for the degenerate gamblers.
Rocklin/Roseville = Square miles of bland cookie-cutter stucco boxes on small lots, everybody driving the same SUVs, all shopping at national chain box stores, eating at national chain restaurants. It has got to one of most stifling, unimaginative cultural deserts of faux prosperity I’ve ever seen…
Nah, there are older neighborhoods with individual character that still exist in CA.
This is representative of the cookie-cutter sameness in newer master-planned overpriced suburbs like Rocklin: http://goo.gl/x8kUFS Mi casa es su casa ‘cuz we can’t tell our houses apart…
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 10:45:05
You’re conflating character with run down obsolete houses.
That goes for much of the Sacramento area, it gets weird driving the main boulevards (with people doing 70+), the chain stores and restaurants repeat every mile or two and that gives the illusion that you are going in a circle. I briefly considered moving there for a job transfer, to attend Sac State, and affordable housing…but a long weekend spent there with my GF thoroughly dissuaded us. There are some nice areas up towards Folsom but they are expensive as was said.
Dude this is all hype. Low interest rates have done nothing to get the economy growing. the problems are structural and until those are addressed things will not change.
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Stocks hovered at session highs Thursday amid optimism that despite a strengthening U.S. economy the Federal Reserve won’t rush to start raising rates any time soon.
The S&P 500 gained 1.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.44%.
The Fed minutes released Wednesday echoed the central bank’s promise at its December meeting to be “patient” in determining when to raise interest rates and that a rate hike wouldn’t likely come for the next couple of meetings.
Investors are also looking toward Friday’s employment report. Expectations are for 245,000 jobs to have been added to nonfarm payrolls in December, lower than November’s blockbuster 321,000 though remaining above 200,000 for the 11th consecutive month.
“Expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US nonfarm payrolls is meaning more US-centric positivity,” said Matt Smith, commodity analyst for Schneider Electric, in a note. “This is a double-edged sword, however, as the US dollar continues to push higher and higher (and higher) as relative optimism for the US economy offsets economic concerns elsewhere. The corresponding headwinds for crude provided by a stronger dollar is keeping a lid on prices — combining with persisting oversupply.”
…
Aren’t these quantitative easings (aka money printing binges) no more nor less than a wealth transfer from the relatively poor folks, whose portfolio wealth is concentrated in fiat monies, to the relatively wealth folks, whose wealth is concentrated in assets they own?
What’s your definition of relatively poor? I would think that most poor and near-poor Americans have the majority of their wealth tied up in things like cars, furniture and other household items.
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Comment by In Colorado
2015-01-08 14:34:23
A lucky ducky’s inventory:
1997 Ford Taurus or other beater car- $1500
Old and mismatched furniture - worthless
Mega TV - $1000 when new, current value ~$100
iPhone - $600 when it was new, current value ~100
Game console and games- $600 new, current value ~ $200
Laptop PC - $500 new, current value ~$100
Other possessions - Would fetch $300 at a garage sale
Comment by MightyMike
2015-01-08 16:05:58
And how much do you estimate that such a person would have in the bank, maybe $200?
You’re not missing anything. We live in a time of financial repression and deeply foolish policy choices, many of which have been removed from the democratic process.
A course of action undertaken by the Federal Reserve to constrict spending in an economy that is seen to be growing too quickly, or to curb inflation when it is rising too fast. The Fed will “make money tight” by raising short-term interest rates (also known as the Fed funds, or discount rate), which increases the cost of borrowing and effectively reduces its attractiveness.
…
That definition is busted. The corollary would be that to loosen is to lower interest rates. After they loosened to ZIRP, they let loose with QE. So stopping or pausing or slowing QE is also tightening.
Where can they let loose now? What’s to invest in when prices are falling? Is the stock buyback bubble over? That one is going to look really stupid in the rearview mirror.
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Comment by rms
2015-01-08 15:09:14
“That one is going to look really stupid in the rearview mirror.”
The public retirement funds, aka Institutional Investors, will clearly see it that way too.
Today’s Markets U.S. Stocks Rise Along With European Shares Hopes Increase for More ECB Stimulus Measures By Alexandra Scaggs and Saumya Vaishampayan
Updated Jan. 8, 2015 11:03 a.m. ET
U.S. stocks rose broadly Thursday, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average into positive territory for the year.
The Dow jumped 259 points, or 1.5%, to 17844. With these gains, it is up 0.1% this year, erasing a loss of as much as 2.5% in the first three sessions of 2015. The S&P 500 gained 30 points, or 1.5%, to 2056 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 73 points, or 1.6%, to 4724.
Stocks got a boost from a stabilization in oil prices, hopes for more stimulus from the European Central Bank and comments from a Federal Reserve official supporting more accommodative monetary policy. Crude oil’s monthslong slump of more than 50% has weighed on global markets in recent sessions, as investors fretted about the implications for economic growth.
“The decline in oil prices appears to have slowed somewhat…it’s some relief,” said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments, which manages about $45 billion. “When you see the price plummet, that has the potential to become destabilizing…[and] bring on the risk of deflation.”
He is bullish on U.S. stocks, but is considering moving some of the $64 million he manages in the Ridgeworth Growth Allocation Strategy into European stocks, since they are trading at lower valuations. He is waiting for signs of an initial recovery in eurozone growth, however.
A rally in European stocks set a positive tone for the U.S. session Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 surged 2.4% on hopes of fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank. Eurozone inflation data released Wednesday showed the first annual drop in consumer prices since 2009, bolstering expectations for further ECB action.
Investors also pointed to comments from Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Mr. Evans said late Wednesday the U.S. might not hit the Fed’s target inflation rate until 2018 and he doesn’t advise raising interest rates until 2016. The first interest-rate increase is widely expected this year.
Mr. Evans is known as a proponent of accommodative policies and will hold a voting spot on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year.
“It’s not a shocking statement from him, but it confirms that Fed officials continue to look out at the landscape to make sure they don’t raise rates too soon and too fast,” said Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors, an ETF investment strategy firm.
Easy monetary policy has helped fuel more than five years of gains in stocks. The Fed ended its bond-buying program last year and is now deciding when to raise short-term interest rates, which have been near zero since December 2008. Still, even when interest rates begin to rise, the increases are expected to be gradual. And many investors expect growth in corporate earnings and a continued economic recovery to propel stocks higher in 2015.
Stocks extended gains from Wednesday, when a rebound in oil prices and upbeat labor-market data helped the S&P 500 snap its five-day losing streak. That day, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to 2025.90 and the Dow Industrials gained 1.2% to 17584.52.
…
It’s become a staple of American economic life that, whenever the Dow has a hiccup, a different Federal Reserve governor will be trotted out to suggest lengthening the horizon of accommodative monetary policy. And on cue, stock markets rally.
This works globally, too; I’m expecting a large rally after Draghi announces some pointless European version of QE later this month.
3 In 5 Americans Don’t Have Savings To Cover Unexpected Bills
Only 38% of respondents said they have enough funds in their bank accounts to cover even the most mundane of spending emergencies…
by Zero Hedge | January 7, 2015
While various CNBC anchors may be willing to say that the US is “growing gangbusters” yet again confusing the liquidity-oozing equity markets with the economy, there are a couple hundred million Americans who would bet to differ (which incidentally may also explain why the Comcast channel no longer wishes to have its viewership calculated by Nielsen): the reason is that according to the latest Bankrate survey released today, more than three in five Americans don’t have money in their savings accounts to cover any unexpected bills such as a $500 car repair or a $1,000 emergency room visit.
In fact, only 38% of respondents said they have enough funds in their bank accounts to cover even the most mundane of spending emergencies.. Most others would need to take on debt or cut back elsewhere.
No. You can still save real cash if you live below your means. In fact, now that everyone thinks the party is back on, you should consider this the best time to save so you can spend when everyone else is crying after the next crash.
Most Americans are one paycheck away from the street
Published: Jan 7, 2015 5:44 a.m. ET
By Quentin Fottrell
Personal finance reporter
Americans are feeling better about their job security and the economy, but most are theoretically only one paycheck away from the street.
Approximately 62% of Americans have no emergency savings for things such as a $1,000 emergency room visit or a $500 car repair, according to a new survey of 1,000 adults by personal finance website Bankrate.com. Faced with an emergency, they say they would raise the money by reducing spending elsewhere (26%), borrowing from family and/or friends (16%) or using credit cards (12%).
“Emergency savings are not just critical for weathering an emergency, they’re also important for successful homeownership and retirement saving,” says Signe-Mary McKernan, senior fellow and economist at the Urban Institute, a nonprofit organization that focuses on social and economic policy.
The findings are strikingly similar to a U.S. Federal Reserve survey of more than 4,000 adults released last year. “Savings are depleted for many households after the recession,” it found. Among those who had savings prior to 2008, 57% said they’d used up some or all of their savings in the Great Recession and its aftermath. What’s more, only 39% of respondents reported having a “rainy day” fund adequate to cover three months of expenses and only 48% of respondents said that they would completely cover a hypothetical emergency expense costing $400 without selling something or borrowing money.
…
I again reference what I think is Ben’s site about the median price of homes on a month end basis nationwide - seems that Denver is at least 1.5X many other median prices in locales across the country - Champagne bubbles and the resultant hangover comin to a nabe near you soon.
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Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 08:52:43
The other ‘locales’ are already 2.5x long term trend.
The national debt is really the priority now. 18 trillion and counting.
And remember they shortened the maturing times of the bonds to save money. So every year trillions in bonds come up for maturity and new bonds are issued to pay off the old ones.
18,000,000,000,000 * .03 = 540 billion dollars
18,000,000,000,000 * .05 = 900 billion dollars
A fed note bears no interest while a treasury note bears interest and has a maturity date.
I just don’t see how rates are gonna rise. Everyone has to sacrafice their interest on savings to pay off the debt!
“Everyone has to sacrafice their interest on savings to pay off the debt!”
Yes. Which means earned income is going continue to beat out investment income, which then means if you are planning to retire soon then maybe you should rethink your plans.
A good job is a terrible thing to waste.
Consider:
1.If you retire and cash out your pension then you will have to suffer the consequences of receiving a low return on your cash out.
2. If you retire and decide to take the annuity then the company you retired from has to suffer the consequences of receiving a low return on the money they have set aside for you. Which means:
A. They will have to continue pouring money into your pension plan, or
Not having a pricey smart phone plan for the family, with “free” iPhones for everyone?
Not having and expensive Satellite TV plan?
Not buying/leasing a $50,000 truck/SUV to tow the $40,000 boat?
Blue and things are a lot smaller then even 10 years ago so most people can live in a lot less space..
I have seen almost everyday lately those big 50″ projection tvs for free…..even a few people will pay you $50 just to move it out of their house….or those huge Italian gaudy Greek china cabinets from the 70’s the amount of big stuff you can get in NYC for free lately is amazing
Two former colleagues of mine who worked for the DOD (federal employees) and their wives retired in their 50s. One couple this year and the other couple awhile back.
50s is pretty young. They live in California in the high desert (where creosote and meth labs grow). There is no way they could afford a place on the coast by retiring so young. But they don’t care.
Federal government encourages its employees to retire in their 50s. I think one of the couple got in FERS barely. The other did not. I was not eligible when I started working in 1985. FERS is supposedly very lucrative.
Not sure how their future health care is handled via benefits.
I am in agreement with your advice Combo. I hope to be in good health to work to at least age 67. A full ten years more than my friends. Maybe add a couple years on top of that.
Of course if you are mostly into cash and 2 year or 3 year notes then I would understand why working longer is a must.
Slowly I started shifting money out of the stocks/stock asset class and now getting into 2 year notes. Will increase this over the next 12 years or so.
The old system is CSRS, pre 1983. I don’t know how lucrative it is. You’ll hear more stories of CSRS retirees making out well, but not for long. There are few CSRS people left, and they are now retiring at age 68-70 with 25,32,38,40 years.
Under the new FERS system, the pension is 1% * high 3 * years service. So someone who works up to $100K after 30 years gets $30/year + SS. There is no spiking with off-hour overtime as there is for police/fire. There is an additional 401K (called TSP) which we can contribute to. Although the eligibility age is still 56, no one is really encouraged to retire unless there is overstaffing.
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Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2015-01-08 19:43:37
Under that FERS system, figure $2,500 per month ($30k year) and maybe $3,500 per month social security, that’s $6,000 per month. Then the TSP on top of that. Not bad. But it won’t get you into coastal living unless it’s a DINK situation and both the couple retired.
Seems that my friends can do that since each of them are couples that worked decades for civil “service.”
What if I don’t care about coastal living? With everything I’ve heard about California and Florida, keep me the F away.
And professional DINKs do well in any environment, doesn’t have to be public sector.
Comment by Bill, Just South of Irvine
2015-01-08 21:14:42
Northern California (north of San Francisco) along the coast is very laid back and totally unlike southern California. People are friendlier. Mendocino, on northward to below Eureka on the coast is what I like. It’s a hippie culture. There are some yuppies, but hardly any house over $3,000,000. Check out Malibu and Manhattan Beach and Laguna Beach. Those prices are nuts. And the motorists here are probably as bad as Boston cabbies.
Not necessarily, I retired in mid 2012 and cashed out my pension, got waaay more than I would have normally due to artificially low interest rates, rolled that into an IRA and it is up about 25% in the meantime (as is my 401K)…the gain could all disappear (or worse) of course but thanks to the lunacy of QE a cashout made sense for me at the time AND I did not trust my former employer or the solvency of the PBGC.
The Drudge Report has *17* links about muslim terrorism in France on the top of its front page right now.
William Kristol, who runs the Weekly Standard, is rubbing his hands together and drooling over the prospect of sending America into another trillion dollar war for Israel.
the U.S. “must use this horrific attack as an opportunity to re-evaluate our own national security posture” … and that Obama’s policies are “grossly insufficient and leave our homeland increasingly exposed.”
Does not seem like ISIS followers are being killed as fast as they are being recruited:
(IraqiNews.com) On Wednesday, MP for the State Coalition, Mowafaq Rubaie revealed that the number of ISIS elements in the city of Mosul ranges between 30,000 to 50,000, indicating that the majority of them are Iraqis.
Rubaie said in a statement received by IraqiNews.com “The number of ISIS terrorists did not exceed 3000 – 5000 when the organization first controlled the city of Mosul last June,” noting that, “Now, the number ranges between 30,000 to 50,000 elements.”
Rubaie added ,”The majority of those gangs fighters are Iraqis,” adding that, “Medium and senior leaders in these terrorist gangs are of foreign nationals.”
“The reason for the increasing number of fighters is due to the ability of foreign leaders to reach civilians to recruit them after being brainwashed,” he continued
If it’s not obvious by now that we need to rid the world of psychopathic Islamists and the global communist movement appeasers, I am not sure you will ever be convinced.
Here is a line from the movie “The Terminator” that will sum up the Islamist threat:
“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”
You may laugh or scoff, but unless you plan on living under Sharia Law and converting to Islam, that will be your future if we do nothing…and I don’t mean nation building, I mean no holds barred eradication from the planet.
They were killed due to their ethnic identify not their religious affiliation. Being an atheist did not save you from being killed if you had Jewish blood.
Apples and Oranges. Good luck out there. Their already fighting WWIII, we’re fighting WWGuilt.
#CarryWhenYouLeaveTheHouse
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Comment by In Colorado
2015-01-08 16:05:45
#CarryWhenYouLeaveTheHouse
I’m sure that a concealed pistol will save you if highly armed and well trained terrorists shoot at you.
Comment by reedalberger
2015-01-08 16:48:00
You have a better chance than begging for your life. Also you can practice head and leg shots at the range, now days most mass murdering nuts bags wear body armor. Good luck out there.
#Don’tMakeMeConvertOrDieBro
Comment by Raymond K Hessel
2015-01-08 17:49:29
A concealed pistol among the targeted staff would have definitely evened the odds.
If a white supremacist Christian penned a similarly virulent screed, it would be summarily labeled hate speech.
But in this case, it is merely an “opposing view,” according to real journalists.
People know the consequences: Opposing view
Anjem Choudary
7:34 p.m. EST January 8, 2015
Why did France allow the tabloid to provoke Muslims?
Contrary to popular misconception, Islam does not mean peace but rather means submission to the commands of Allah alone. Therefore, Muslims do not believe in the concept of freedom of expression, as their speech and actions are determined by divine revelation and not based on people’s desires.
Although Muslims may not agree about the idea of freedom of expression, even non-Muslims who espouse it say it comes with responsibilities. In an increasingly unstable and insecure world, the potential consequences of insulting the Messenger Muhammad are known to Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
Muslims consider the honor of the Prophet Muhammad to be dearer to them than that of their parents or even themselves. To defend it is considered to be an obligation upon them. The strict punishment if found guilty of this crime under sharia (Islamic law) is capital punishment implementable by an Islamic State. This is because the Messenger Muhammad said, “Whoever insults a Prophet kill him.”
…
CNBC: Low Oil Prices Pave the Way for New Carbon Taxes
Treasury Secretary published column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax
by Rob Garver | The Fiscal Times | January 7, 2015
When prominent members of both political parties talk about the possibility of taxing fossil fuels – you know something serious has shifted in U.S. politics.
On Monday morning, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a largely pro-business Democrat, published a column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax.
“The case for carbon taxes has long been compelling,” Summers wrote. “With the recent steep fall in oil prices and associated declines in other energy prices, it has become overwhelming. There is room for debate about the size of the tax and about how the proceeds should be deployed. But there should be no doubt that, given the current zero tax rate on carbon, increased taxation would be desirable.”
Summers’ call for a carbon tax came just a day after prominent Republicans discussed the possibility of an increase in the federal gas tax to shore up the Federal Highway Trust Fund, which will run out of money this May.
Because health care 18% GDP = American Exceptionalism
New York Times - Health Premiums Rise More Slowly, but Workers Shoulder More of Cost
“Although the rise in premiums has slowed since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, workers who receive health insurance through their employers are shouldering more health care expenses at a time when wages are stagnant, according to a new report from the Commonwealth Fund that analyzed costs across the states.
These costs are particularly high — relative to median income — for workers in the South and south central states, where income is below the national average, the report found, even though the growth in premiums had slowed in several states in those regions.”
When Charlotte Alger, 25, was working at a Home Depot just outside Boston last year, she said she earned $10.75 an hour working on the sales floor in the woodworking department. She chose one of the more comprehensive health insurance plans offered, but it came with a whopping $3,000 deductible.
But at least she doesn’t have to take her own TP to the hospital, right?
From China Daily, one of the stories the U.S. MSM will not cover:
Beijing’s property market opened high at the beginning of this year with a record price sale.
A consortium that included China Resources, Shoukai Share and Ping An Real Estate bought a large residential site in central Beijing’s Fengtai district on Wednesday for 8.625 billion yuan ($1.39 billion), making it the most expensive plot in the capital.
The record was previously held by a commercial-residential site in Beijing’s central Hua Jia Hutong that was sold to Beijing Huarong for 7.46 billion yuan in August.
Wednesday’s price tag, 22 per cent higher than the government’s opening price of 7.07 billion yuan, represents 20,599 yuan per square meter.
The plot could yield a total gross floor area of 418,693 square meters.
A Wharf consortium paid 8.6 billion yuan for two adjoining sites in the same area on Monday.
In 2014, despite unprecedented property market downturn, Beijing government raked in 191.7 billion yuan, up 5 percent from a year ago, and topped cities across China, according to consultancy China Index Academy.
China is actively locking in contracts with countries to supply its ever increasing demand for oil, Obama’s war on Russia is the best thing to happen to China for years.
Even though the dollar has been pushed up almost a 1/2% today, oil is still up a few pennies, rather amazing. At what point does the U.S. price itself out of all markets by spiking the dollar? Ironically, Russia is benefiting two ways today, slightly higher oil and the ability to use the dollars its generating to buy goods from Japan and Europe which are cheaper due to the stronger dollar.
This war on Russia is getting expensive excerpt from a Bloomberg article, how dare Putin stand in the way of world government:
Germany praised Ukraine’s new government for pursuing an “ambitious” path to overhaul its economy as the country seeks to expand a bailout that financier George Soros said may require as much as $50 billion.
In Germany to seek new loans on top of Ukraine’s $17 billion International Monetary Fund-led rescue, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warned that Ukraine’s separatist conflict is a threat to Europe and people in the country’s easternmost regions were “hostages of Russian terrorists.” Bond yields fell for a second day as Soros said that the conflict poses a bigger danger to Europe’s economy than Greece.
“In this discussion, I shall list some of the ways a money printing regime behaves differently from a taxation regime. You can then identify a money printing regime by its actions.”
Just an example on how the MSM cherry picks stories from China Daily and only reports the negative. The fact that China is now allowing bankruptcies now, speaks to its increasing strength not weakness.
Do you think inflation in the US will take off once china has enough gold reserves to hedge is treasury portfolio?
When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?
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Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-01-08 09:14:18
When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?
They already sell more than twenty million cars per year and it will reach about 27 million in two years. They are already there. However, it is China’s service industries that are growing the fastest and because they are labor intensive and a time of a stable to declining work force double digit GDP increases are not possible.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-01-08 09:24:49
Real wages will be up sharply again this year in China, wages up about 8% with inflation about 1.5%, we should be so lucky as to have a Chinese “collapse”:
There’s not enough gold in the world for China to hedge it’s treasury portfolio. It will have to load up on treasuries for the forseeable future, because its bloated industries are already starting to crumble under the weight of over capacity. They don’t have any other option but to double down on the exports, and in doing so they will create even more deflation in the world economy.
Comment by azdude
2015-01-08 10:00:39
I think they are concerned about inflation eating away there dollar reserves. you only need a certain percentage of gold to back the reserves. whatever is lot by inflation will be gained by gold. That is their goal. There is plenty of gold to make it happen.
Comment by Housing Analyst
2015-01-08 10:17:19
China is unique in that regard. They’re experiencing rampant inflation.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-01-08 10:38:26
source? I see that they have about 1.5% inflation.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-01-08 10:43:37
“China is unique in that regard. They’re experiencing rampant inflation.”
You love to make up the facts as you post don’t you?
Correction: The were. Now it’s nothing but a deflating economy.
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-08 11:57:41
“Facts are stubborn things…”
It helps one to think more clearly if one calls things by their right names. The Communist Party daily press release is not necessarily factual, rather doubtfully so.
Perhaps I am stuck in the past on this, but these are the same gang who murdered 30 million of their people not so long ago, and called it progress. It is offensive to quote them and call it fact.
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2015-01-08 16:02:30
Perhaps I am stuck in the past on this, but these are the same gang who murdered 30 million of their people not so long ago, and called it progress. It is offensive to quote them and call it fact.
Mao was the biggest killer the world ever knew. 30 million is a conservative estimate. However, virtually all the killings occurred prior to 1979. Abe’s father was a war criminal, does that mean we should still be hostile to Japan? Mao is no longer with us and China’s present human rights abuses are no worse than an average developing nation. Of course, that is a very low bar. How long you hold people responsible is a subjective judgment.
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-08 16:35:56
Well we see it differently. The Japanese are a people who hold honor high and have repudiated many of the ways of the past, so it would seem. I have found them to take one’s word as an unbreakable contract. The Chinese government has been handed down from Mao intact and in my experience there is no reverence for human life, freedom, truth, contracts & etc. and no repudiation of the ways of the not so distant past. Lying, stealing and corruption are not immoral in China, unless you are out of favor. I have an honest friend and business partner of two decades in Taiwan who views things the same way, and some friends stateside that have been robbed mercilessly by so-called upstanding Chinese friends and business associates. I do not know a lot, but I don’t trust what the government publishes as “truth”. It doesn’t need to be for them. It’s their culture.
The “Oh, look at Japan.” is weak.
BTW, I have an abacus and know how to use it. Their numbers do not add up, though I am sure you will continue to be enamored by them.
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-08 21:31:31
“When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?”
They may need to end their communistic command-and-control economic dictatorship before they can develop a self-sufficient consumer economy.
Sure Dan, China’s “increasing strenght” is the reason, not its increasing (and crushing) debt.
Yes. They are confident enough about their economy to allow defaults. While we have forgotten about moral hazard, they are learning its importance.
(Comments wont nest below this level)
Comment by Blue Skye
2015-01-08 17:46:32
“They are confident enough about their economy…”
We can see that. It’s why they have collapsed the supply network for everything their economy is based on; coal, iron, oil and credit. It’s their sheer confidence manifested.
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-08 21:33:33
Collapsing commodities prices are a great indicator of Chinese economic confidence!
“This is also why globally the bond market has TRIPLED in the last 15 years: as bonds come due, bankrupt Governments have been forced to issue MORE debt to pay back bondholders.”
First shale company filed for bankruptcy on Sunday…
by RT.com | January 8, 2015
Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.
Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers’ debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal.
After its fall, the industry will start back up because the oil is needed. However, since their cost of capital will be higher, due to the defaults, the price of oil will need to be even higher. So within a few years we will be paying more at the pump then we did last July. Call it the 2016, October surprise.
Good point. It’s like we need more credit expansion, to build more houses around the world, and roads to nowhere, and steel mills to make it happen. That’s what we need to make the price of oil go back up to ridiculous. We need this, so it must happen.
Or maybe we don’t need empty housing and factories and we don’t need so much oil. It’s all rather confusing if you are living in the mania. It’s all rather absurd if you’re not.
If a new army of Fang nu volunteers steps up, we’ll have the one outcome, if not, the other. It will have to be a very large army, where can we find them?
Obama announces plan that could save home buyers hundreds of dollars a year
By Dina ElBoghdady January 7 at 4:30 PM
President Obama plans to highlight the new policy Thursday when he delivers a speech in Phoenix about the housing market, which has been struggling to fully recover in part because mortgage costs are high and lending standards tight. Already, the president’s critics are bashing the decision. They say lowering the fees heightens the chances of a taxpayer-funded bailout for the agency in the future.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.) said in a statement Wednesday that “if President Obama follows through on today’s pledge, he will be increasing the likelihood that taxpayers will have to foot the bill for yet another bailout.”
Ohio Republican and man-sized Oompa Loompa John Boehner was re-elected today to his third term as speaker for the House of Representatives, despite some two dozen fractious Tea Partiers voting against him for not being anti-Obama enough. To celebrate, Boehener gave Nancy Pelosi the most uncomfortable kiss in the history of dry, leathery smooches:
…
“While the US can probably decouple from global growth conditions long enough to justify a Fed rate hike in the coming months, our global financial system is far too levered, far too interconnected, and far too gravely mismanaged for the US to continue booming as commodity prices collapse and the emerging-market borrowing bonanza comes to an abrupt and violent end. The deflationary storm can blow back at us far more quickly than the FOMC believes.”
yea more of that but this would continue no matter what the dollar did.
Carry trade gone wrong by a US dollar going up in value. Imagine you work at a Bank and borrowed billions in US dollars at near 0% and invested in pesos paying 7%. leverage up 10 to 1 get 70% a year. Nice bonus living large.
but now the peso ( or whatever ) is crashing against the dollar. how to pay Back all those dollars ?? No bonus for you.
Money is lost and “and the emerging-market borrowing bonanza comes to an abrupt and violent end. ”
I wonder if the Banker boys saw this oil crash, dollar rise coming ?
I wonder if the Banker boys saw this oil crash, dollar rise coming ?
The ones at the top did. As the wealth get’s more and more concentrated the sharks will start feeding on their own. There are so many big fish in little ponds that soon will become whale food.
A crucial piece of the Keystone XL pipeline puzzle could fall into place as soon as Friday, with a Nebraska court set to deliver a long-awaited ruling on whether the project’s proposed route through the state is legal.
The case centers on whether Gov. Dave Heineman, a Republican, and the nonpartisan Nebraska Legislature exceeded their authority by changing state law to expedite Keystone
The highly anticipated decision won’t seal the fate of the oil sands pipeline one way or the other, but it will signal whether years of additional delays are on the horizon or whether President Obama finally will be forced to give the definitive “yes” or “no” to the project.
Of course it is a Republican trying to take away a states rights.
Of course it is a Republican trying to take away a states rights.
Really, so Obama is protecting states’ rights? He is not just hiding behind an endless state department study because he is too gutless to make the call?
States rights… no this is likely a federal issue due to interstate commerce clause. I guess the states could get around it by “buying” the oil at the northern line of the state, control it as it flows through the state, and then “selling” it at the southern line to the next state, and so on. With a little toll-booth at each line, of course. Making the oil very expensive by the time it got to Houston. Wouldn’t THAT frost the Canadian maple leaves.
Some evidence of shadow inventory: All those renters rushing into rentals - what happened to their houses? I don’t think we suffered a population boom, and regardless, millenials and illegals are probably not rushing out to buy the houses they vacated. So what happened to those houses?
Those homes have become the very rentals that they are rushing into.
I’ve heard anecdotal stories of folks who walked away from their mortgage, only to rent a home that was lost to foreclosure a few blocks or streets away. They liked the neighborhood, didn’t want to move their kids out of school, etc. It was a giant game of musical chairs (houses).
The important data to track is the vacancy rate.
And you say we didn’t have a population boom? You’re right. But from 2008 until 2013, we added about 12 million people. That’s not an insignificant number.
I’m intrigued by the high demand for multi-family rentals. In this area, go to any apartment complex and they’re packed. Also, I doubt people went from foreclosed houses to similar houses, since if they could afford the rent on the rental, they could almost certainly afford the mortgage as well (I’ve never seen any deals on house rentals - the payments seem about even with the mortgage on the house typically).
It’s the context I personally observed of multifamily units being the destination of a lot of renters. That got me to thinking about what happened to their houses.
I agree - data is important. Any my observation contains a small sample size. But, it’s one of those “things that make you go hmmm.”
We talk about China the developing world’s State Owned Enterprises. But we have massive state owned enterprises here, in the form of Fannie and Freddie, and various real estate agencies like FHA. Is there an analogue of the US state-owned enterprises like Fannie and Freddie in the rest of the world?
If they’re going to do these massive financial sector bailouts, shouldn’t the leadership of the firms receiving that largesse be removed at a minimum? GM’s CEO was removed (but his right-hand man assumed command). But even if the right-hand men assume command, should there have been at least a little bit of management change?
Not only have they actively been protected from legal repercussions, they’re still actively running the show!
I know the rationales for the bailouts, but these sorts of disconnects make it seem that the focus was less on helping the society at large and more on helping the cronies and future employers.
The oil and gas industry pumped $53.1 million into last year’s congressional campaigns–87 percent of which went to Republican candidates. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell raked in $608,000 from the industry for his 2014 campaign, and now he is putting Keystone XL at the heart of his big polluter agenda. But this isn’t just a battle over industry influence. This is a choice about the kind of nation we want to live in. Do we want to live in a country where expert reviews don’t matter and industry profits trump our families’ health? Do we want to lock ourselves into a fuel that generates 17 percent more climate change pollution than crude oil and makes our children more vulnerable to extreme weather? Or do we want something better?
Please McConnel is about to push through fast track trade authority so Obama can sign the trans pacific partnership. Then corporations will have rights that rank higher than any individual countries laws regarding environments and worker safety etc.
“Gilbert got a $2,400 a month housing allowance for his Chelsea apartment and a $600 spending budget from Mom and Dad.”
Man Who Allegedly Killed Father Over Allowance Accused of Arson
By Katie Zavadski
January 6, 2015 10:10 a.m.
Tommy Gilbert, the 30-year-old son of hedge-fund manager Thomas Gilbert, was arraigned Monday night on charges of second-degree murder and weapons possession after he allegedly killed his father on Sunday afternoon, staging the scene to look like a suicide. The court denied him bail, as there’s some speculation that Gilbert Jr. was looking to flee the city (at least before he got distracted by his TV).
This isn’t Tommy’s first run-in with the dark side. The New York Post reports that the gym-rat had a long history of petty beefs and was reliant on his parents for much of his lifestyle. According to the Post’s sources, the younger Gilbert got a $2,400 a month housing allowance for his Chelsea apartment and a $600 spending budget from Mom and Dad. The deadly conflict allegedly arose when the elders decided to cut his spending budget by $200 (and eventually by $100 more). Though this still would have left Gilbert with more than $2,500 a month to live off, that’s probably not much when you’re spinning in the black-tie party circuit, as Gilbert allegedly was.
And, of course, the money was a drop in the bucket after all the parents had invested in his fancy education: The younger Gilbert attended the Upper East Side’s Buckley School, where annual tuition is more than $30,000 a year, followed by the $54,000-annually Deerfield School in Massachusetts. After high school, he followed in his father’s footsteps and enrolled at Princeton University, where he studied economics and graduated in 2009.
Despite these early privileges, Tommy Gilbert — according to his ex-girlfriend, socialite Anna Rothschild — preferred to focus on hitting the gym and surfing. Though the pair broke up in May, they kept in touch, and Rothschild said a murder “is the last thing in a million years that I thought he could do.” When he wanted to follow in his dad’s footsteps and start a hedge fund, “his dad wouldn’t help him and told him he was stupid.” Other anonymous sources suggested that the son suffered from obsessive compulsive disorder and was off his medication at the time of the attack.
But he was also vengeful. The Post alleges that Gilbert Jr. was a nuisance to his parents’ East Hampton community. When a local 17th-century house burned down in September, he was named as the main suspect, though he hasn’t yet been charged. The 30-year-old is said to have fought with the family’s son over a girl — and one source even told the Post that he may have killed that family’s innocent dog ahead of the fire.
Rothschild said he was also desperately lonely. His parents may have been his only friends: “His phone never rang. No one texted him or called him. The one time it rang in four months while we were together, it was his mother,” Rothschild told the Post.
+1 Yep. We know a hard working millennial dual STEM income family with kids who moved to the Bakken Shale region because they couldn’t afford the Seattle area. Didn’t receive a Christmas card this year.
TODAY’S figures from Eurostat confirmed what the markets had expected following reports already out from Spain and Germany: consumer prices are now falling across the euro zone. Inflation turned negative in December, with prices down by 0.2% on their level in December 2013. This is the first time that the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009, when headline inflation went below zero for five months (from June till October).
As was the case in 2009, the slide into deflation has been caused by the oil-price slump as it feeds through to energy prices. “Core” inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco), actually edged up in December to 0.8%, from 0.7% in November.
Deflation can be good or bad, depending upon what is driving it and how long it lasts. A short burst of deflation associated with an oil-price fall is good, since it acts as a tax cut, boosting consumers’ real purchasing power. That’s a timely boost for the moribund euro-zone economy. Although the single-currency club appears to have avoided outright recession in 2014, growth became so anaemic that it made little difference. Purchasing-manager indices of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in the final three months of 2014, compiled by data-firm Markit, were the weakest since the third quarter of 2013, suggesting that growth remained feeble in late 2014.
Deflation is bad, if it persists and people and businesses come to expect prices to fall. That can lead to slacker spending since it makes sense to postpone purchases and pay lower prices at a later juncture. A prolonged period of deflation would be crippling for the euro zone because both public and private debt are extremely high in parts of the region. The real burden of debt, which is generally fixed in nominal terms, rises when prices fall.
…
The world will be watching on Jan. 20, as China unveils 2014 annual growth figures that most likely will miss the government’s economic target for the first time since 1998.
The question is how wide the world’s No. 2 economy will be of the mark.
Gross domestic product likely grew 7.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 14 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That puts China on track for 7.3% for the 2014 as a whole – a touch below the target of about 7.5%.
Though policy makers have repeatedly said the target is only approximate, the gap is symbolically significant in a time when China is looking at balancing growth with quality of life and sustainability issues. Growth in 2015 is likely to be slower still, with UBS forecasting 6.8% growth for the year.
“For 2015, we expect a slow grind,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at the Swiss bank. “Persistent economic difficulties will likely increase the pressure for faster reforms in 2015.”
China’s export sector has had a passable year, with demand from the wider world up modestly. Exports are forecast to grow 6.6% on-year in December, up from 4.7% in November, according to the Journal’s survey.
…
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Because Region VIII is *always* on top
Try to wake up earlier tomorrow
Perhaps you’ll wake up early enough tomorrow to find something meaningful to say in your post!
Region VIII > Region X
The President is here in Phx today to discuss housing, specifically his loosening of standards, Mo Credik, lowering the FHA mortgage insurance premiums, etc.
…. easy credit ripoffs,
ain’t we lucky we got em,
Good Times.
Cmon out and worship LIEbs, this is your guy.
and he never will acknowledge a black woman won in utah…..
http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/mia-love-explains-why-she-voted-for-john-boehner-as-house-speaker/article/2558302
of course education is not on the list either……
http://www.breitbart.com/texas/2015/01/03/expert-most-us-college-freshmen-read-at-7th-grade-level/
Time to loosen up credit to get more home debtors.
The auto industry is doing the same thing. Subprime b@tchez!
Instead of lowering prices they choose to manipulate the payment to get it manageable.
My dad was telling me he paid 12,000.00 for a fixer home in so cal back in 1970. I think he was maybe making 3000.00 / month pushing dirt.
“he was maybe making 3000.00 / month pushing dirt”
Not likely if he was an employee. IIRC, less than half of that was considered a very good wage.
My dad was a tool and die maker in Soc Cal in the 60’s. IIRC he made just over $200 a week back then. We lived pretty well. The monthly nut on the house was about $100.
My in-laws in So Cal bought their house in 1950something, for $25k when the nearby beach was called tin can beach and not surf city. They are in their late ’70s now, and currently owe more than $250k on it.
Like I said…. a state full of degenerate gamblers.
“The President is here in Phx today to discuss housing…”
What’s there to discuss? The fugg’n house cost too much.
“What’s there to discuss?”
Comment by Whac-A-Bubble™
2015-01-07 19:22:12
Obama to Cut FHA Mortgage Insurance Premiums to Boost Homeownership
By Clea Benson and Jonathan Allen Jan 7, 2015 11:00 AM PT
Photographer: Andrew Harrer/Bloomberg
In an effort to expand homeownership among lower-income buyers, President Barack Obama plans to cut mortgage-insurance premiums charged by a government agency.
The annual fees the Federal Housing Administration charges to guarantee mortgages will be cut by 0.5 percentage point, to 0.85 percent of the loan balance, Julian Castro, secretary of the Department of Housing and Urban Development, said today during a conference call with reporters. Under the new premium structure, FHA estimates that 2 million borrowers will be able to save an average of $900 annually over the next three years if they purchase or refinance homes.
Shares of private insurers that compete with the FHA fell on the news, which Obama plans to discuss during a visit to Phoenix tomorrow.
“We believe this is striking a very good balance between being fiscally responsible and also enhancing homeownership opportunities,” Castro said.
This sounds like it involves collection of revenues and/or appropriating expenditures - doesn’t Congress have some say in this policy?
“doesn’t Congress have some say in this policy?”
I don’t think Congress has a phone or a pen.
Evidently, the FHA is self-funded:
“How is FHA funded?
FHA is the only government agency that operates entirely from its self-generated income and costs the taxpayers nothing. The proceeds from the mortgage insurance paid by the homeowners are captured in an account that is used to operate the program entirely.”
http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_offices/housing/fhahistory
That assumes the few enough people default on these loans.
Donk Donk Donk….
“Mortgage bailout not over, FHA to draw $1.7 billion”
http://www.cnbc.com/id/101068629#.
I don’t think Congress has a phone or a pen.
Unfortunately, that is not the only pair most of the members are missing.
HA, you’re correct. FHA is self-funded if few enough people default. Of course, too many people defaulted.
Uganda be kidding me? Is the OMan really that stupid? Please say he’s not….
It’s the price stupid.
The President is here in Phx today to discuss housing, specifically his loosening of standards, Mo Credik, lowering the FHA mortgage insurance premiums, etc.
Still pushing on a string. Housing sales will continue to fall.
I’m afraid he’s gonna find out what we’re really like here in this town It was better when he could just speculate.
Great places to live for young families: Rocklin tops the list for CA cities!
http://m.bizjournals.com/sacramento/news/2014/12/24/rocklin-among-nations-top-20-cities-for-young.html?r=full
Living in the Sierra foothills is wonderful!
Is there a schedule to your pimping? Not around every day, but pop in early some mornings for concentrated shilling.
Don’t you think homes are overpriced there? I guess they are building a bass pro shops right off sierra college blvd. As usual they get another walmart and target too.
I guess the kmart off of taylor road finally went under . I like rocklin and roseville but 400,000.00 homes are a little crazy. I’m sure 100k of that is permits and fees.
That area is the nicest of placer county unless you can afford granite bay.
Underwater Granite.
Granite Bay, CA Sale Prices Plummet 6% YoY; Plunge 11% QoQ As Housing Demand Falls For 5 Years Straight
http://www.zillow.com/granite-bay-ca/home-values/
“Underwater Granite.”
Granite Bay is a nice place with great weather, but the cost of admission for gangsta-free living is too high for even two incomes. A trust fund child would be comfortable there, but the coast would get my vote given a choice.
What’s the specific gravity of a house in Granite Bay?
Granite Bay is a nice place with great weather, but the cost of admission for gangsta-free living is too high for even two incomes.
This is one of the reasons we left California. Too much freaking crime. Insane traffic and cost of living were other factors.
Los Angeles is NOT all of CA.
I dont think people in Carmel worry about traffic and crime.
People in Summerland are happy.
Leave it to Lola to speak for the degenerate gamblers.
Rocklin/Roseville = Square miles of bland cookie-cutter stucco boxes on small lots, everybody driving the same SUVs, all shopping at national chain box stores, eating at national chain restaurants. It has got to one of most stifling, unimaginative cultural deserts of faux prosperity I’ve ever seen…
Sounds like the rest of CA and the US.
That was my thought. San Jose could be characterized in the same way. It’s just more expensive.
Nah, there are older neighborhoods with individual character that still exist in CA.
This is representative of the cookie-cutter sameness in newer master-planned overpriced suburbs like Rocklin: http://goo.gl/x8kUFS Mi casa es su casa ‘cuz we can’t tell our houses apart…
You’re conflating character with run down obsolete houses.
That goes for much of the Sacramento area, it gets weird driving the main boulevards (with people doing 70+), the chain stores and restaurants repeat every mile or two and that gives the illusion that you are going in a circle. I briefly considered moving there for a job transfer, to attend Sac State, and affordable housing…but a long weekend spent there with my GF thoroughly dissuaded us. There are some nice areas up towards Folsom but they are expensive as was said.
I’ve had that happen in some parts of Tampa. One time I was driving in a newer part of town at night and I was totally disoriented.
Given Mr Market’s wicked hangover early this year, is it safe to assume that the Fed will not tighten until 2016 at the earliest?
Dude this is all hype. Low interest rates have done nothing to get the economy growing. the problems are structural and until those are addressed things will not change.
Stock Rally Enters Day 2 as Global Markets Celebrate Fed’s Patience
BY Keris Alison Lahiff
01/08/15 - 10:04 AM EST
NEW YORK (TheStreet) — Stocks hovered at session highs Thursday amid optimism that despite a strengthening U.S. economy the Federal Reserve won’t rush to start raising rates any time soon.
The S&P 500 gained 1.37%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.42%, and the Nasdaq climbed 1.44%.
The Fed minutes released Wednesday echoed the central bank’s promise at its December meeting to be “patient” in determining when to raise interest rates and that a rate hike wouldn’t likely come for the next couple of meetings.
Investors are also looking toward Friday’s employment report. Expectations are for 245,000 jobs to have been added to nonfarm payrolls in December, lower than November’s blockbuster 321,000 though remaining above 200,000 for the 11th consecutive month.
“Expectations ahead of tomorrow’s US nonfarm payrolls is meaning more US-centric positivity,” said Matt Smith, commodity analyst for Schneider Electric, in a note. “This is a double-edged sword, however, as the US dollar continues to push higher and higher (and higher) as relative optimism for the US economy offsets economic concerns elsewhere. The corresponding headwinds for crude provided by a stronger dollar is keeping a lid on prices — combining with persisting oversupply.”
…
Aren’t these quantitative easings (aka money printing binges) no more nor less than a wealth transfer from the relatively poor folks, whose portfolio wealth is concentrated in fiat monies, to the relatively wealth folks, whose wealth is concentrated in assets they own?
What am I missing here?
What’s your definition of relatively poor? I would think that most poor and near-poor Americans have the majority of their wealth tied up in things like cars, furniture and other household items.
A lucky ducky’s inventory:
1997 Ford Taurus or other beater car- $1500
Old and mismatched furniture - worthless
Mega TV - $1000 when new, current value ~$100
iPhone - $600 when it was new, current value ~100
Game console and games- $600 new, current value ~ $200
Laptop PC - $500 new, current value ~$100
Other possessions - Would fetch $300 at a garage sale
And how much do you estimate that such a person would have in the bank, maybe $200?
Only on payday, Mighty Mike. The Goon squad tells tales of picking up discarded ATM slips: Cash withdrawal $20; Remaining balance $35.29.
You’re not missing anything. We live in a time of financial repression and deeply foolish policy choices, many of which have been removed from the democratic process.
If by “tighten” you mean raise interest rates, it won’t happen. It will bankrupt everyone they care about, the government included.
Why don’t some of you oil barons and economic prediction fence sitters give us your thoughts and predictions on interest rates this year.
Not sure how well this definition holds up when the central bank is pushing on a string…
Tight Monetary Policy
DEFINITION of ‘Tight Monetary Policy’
A course of action undertaken by the Federal Reserve to constrict spending in an economy that is seen to be growing too quickly, or to curb inflation when it is rising too fast. The Fed will “make money tight” by raising short-term interest rates (also known as the Fed funds, or discount rate), which increases the cost of borrowing and effectively reduces its attractiveness.
…
That definition is busted. The corollary would be that to loosen is to lower interest rates. After they loosened to ZIRP, they let loose with QE. So stopping or pausing or slowing QE is also tightening.
Where can they let loose now? What’s to invest in when prices are falling? Is the stock buyback bubble over? That one is going to look really stupid in the rearview mirror.
“That one is going to look really stupid in the rearview mirror.”
The public retirement funds, aka Institutional Investors, will clearly see it that way too.
Don’t know if they’ll tighten but they sure did crush demand for everything from houses to oil.
Are you impressed with their efforts to boost asset prices considering prices are falling?
That’s the problem with levitation. You have to keep accelerating just to stay in one place.
“You have to keep accelerating just to stay in one place.”
Yep, one must apply force times time, so it’s off to “work.”
Check your physics textbook, sweetie.
No, rms gets extra points for the off to work pun.
I thought that the rolling over of the commodities market was kind of a self tightening by making leveraged bets go worthless.
I think the spike in UI claims we are about to see will be rather tightening.
Venezuela, Brazil, Greece & etc. When you lose your credit rating, it can be “tightening”.
Today’s Markets
U.S. Stocks Rise Along With European Shares
Hopes Increase for More ECB Stimulus Measures
By Alexandra Scaggs and Saumya Vaishampayan
Updated Jan. 8, 2015 11:03 a.m. ET
U.S. stocks rose broadly Thursday, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average into positive territory for the year.
The Dow jumped 259 points, or 1.5%, to 17844. With these gains, it is up 0.1% this year, erasing a loss of as much as 2.5% in the first three sessions of 2015. The S&P 500 gained 30 points, or 1.5%, to 2056 and the Nasdaq Composite Index rallied 73 points, or 1.6%, to 4724.
Stocks got a boost from a stabilization in oil prices, hopes for more stimulus from the European Central Bank and comments from a Federal Reserve official supporting more accommodative monetary policy. Crude oil’s monthslong slump of more than 50% has weighed on global markets in recent sessions, as investors fretted about the implications for economic growth.
“The decline in oil prices appears to have slowed somewhat…it’s some relief,” said Alan Gayle, director of asset allocation at RidgeWorth Investments, which manages about $45 billion. “When you see the price plummet, that has the potential to become destabilizing…[and] bring on the risk of deflation.”
He is bullish on U.S. stocks, but is considering moving some of the $64 million he manages in the Ridgeworth Growth Allocation Strategy into European stocks, since they are trading at lower valuations. He is waiting for signs of an initial recovery in eurozone growth, however.
A rally in European stocks set a positive tone for the U.S. session Wednesday. The Stoxx Europe 600 surged 2.4% on hopes of fresh stimulus from the European Central Bank. Eurozone inflation data released Wednesday showed the first annual drop in consumer prices since 2009, bolstering expectations for further ECB action.
Investors also pointed to comments from Charles Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago. Mr. Evans said late Wednesday the U.S. might not hit the Fed’s target inflation rate until 2018 and he doesn’t advise raising interest rates until 2016. The first interest-rate increase is widely expected this year.
Mr. Evans is known as a proponent of accommodative policies and will hold a voting spot on the Fed’s policy-setting committee this year.
“It’s not a shocking statement from him, but it confirms that Fed officials continue to look out at the landscape to make sure they don’t raise rates too soon and too fast,” said Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors, an ETF investment strategy firm.
Easy monetary policy has helped fuel more than five years of gains in stocks. The Fed ended its bond-buying program last year and is now deciding when to raise short-term interest rates, which have been near zero since December 2008. Still, even when interest rates begin to rise, the increases are expected to be gradual. And many investors expect growth in corporate earnings and a continued economic recovery to propel stocks higher in 2015.
Stocks extended gains from Wednesday, when a rebound in oil prices and upbeat labor-market data helped the S&P 500 snap its five-day losing streak. That day, the S&P 500 added 1.2% to 2025.90 and the Dow Industrials gained 1.2% to 17584.52.
…
It’s become a staple of American economic life that, whenever the Dow has a hiccup, a different Federal Reserve governor will be trotted out to suggest lengthening the horizon of accommodative monetary policy. And on cue, stock markets rally.
This works globally, too; I’m expecting a large rally after Draghi announces some pointless European version of QE later this month.
How did all of this come to rule our lives?
It’s amazing to me how the slightest hint of a shift in policy can spark a 500 pt. rally in the DJIA.
Has the War on Savers left you one paycheck away from the street?
A nation of broke @ss loosers
Is it a war or just a police action?
3 In 5 Americans Don’t Have Savings To Cover Unexpected Bills
Only 38% of respondents said they have enough funds in their bank accounts to cover even the most mundane of spending emergencies…
by Zero Hedge | January 7, 2015
While various CNBC anchors may be willing to say that the US is “growing gangbusters” yet again confusing the liquidity-oozing equity markets with the economy, there are a couple hundred million Americans who would bet to differ (which incidentally may also explain why the Comcast channel no longer wishes to have its viewership calculated by Nielsen): the reason is that according to the latest Bankrate survey released today, more than three in five Americans don’t have money in their savings accounts to cover any unexpected bills such as a $500 car repair or a $1,000 emergency room visit.
In fact, only 38% of respondents said they have enough funds in their bank accounts to cover even the most mundane of spending emergencies.. Most others would need to take on debt or cut back elsewhere.
“3 In 5 Americans Don’t Have Savings To Cover Unexpected Bills”
+1 Obama soon to announce the Czar of Unexpected Billz.
“3 In 5 Americans Don’t Have Savings To Cover Unexpected Bills”
A Payday Loan Store on every corner.
3 out of 5 is an electoral majority. They don’t need savings when they can vote to help themselves to yours. All hail the DNC permanent supermajority!
No. You can still save real cash if you live below your means. In fact, now that everyone thinks the party is back on, you should consider this the best time to save so you can spend when everyone else is crying after the next crash.
#CashIsCash
#Don’tFundamentallyTransformMeBro
“You can still save real cash if you live below your means.”
+1 I agree, but the bird doesn’t care for that line of thought.
Most Americans are one paycheck away from the street
Published: Jan 7, 2015 5:44 a.m. ET
By Quentin Fottrell
Personal finance reporter
Americans are feeling better about their job security and the economy, but most are theoretically only one paycheck away from the street.
Approximately 62% of Americans have no emergency savings for things such as a $1,000 emergency room visit or a $500 car repair, according to a new survey of 1,000 adults by personal finance website Bankrate.com. Faced with an emergency, they say they would raise the money by reducing spending elsewhere (26%), borrowing from family and/or friends (16%) or using credit cards (12%).
“Emergency savings are not just critical for weathering an emergency, they’re also important for successful homeownership and retirement saving,” says Signe-Mary McKernan, senior fellow and economist at the Urban Institute, a nonprofit organization that focuses on social and economic policy.
The findings are strikingly similar to a U.S. Federal Reserve survey of more than 4,000 adults released last year. “Savings are depleted for many households after the recession,” it found. Among those who had savings prior to 2008, 57% said they’d used up some or all of their savings in the Great Recession and its aftermath. What’s more, only 39% of respondents reported having a “rainy day” fund adequate to cover three months of expenses and only 48% of respondents said that they would completely cover a hypothetical emergency expense costing $400 without selling something or borrowing money.
…
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/most-americans-are-one-paycheck-away-from-the-street-2015-01-07?dist=lcountdown
How many newly underwater houses were created in 2014?
Every single one purchased in metro Denver.
You better believe it.
Be grateful to count yourself as one of the un-fleeced.
Every day. Grateful every day.
article for amy and j-fraud and slithers
‘record-high average sales prices for homes in the metro area of $339,636′
http://m.bizjournals.com/denver/blog/real_deals/2015/01/denver-metro-home-prices-have-jolly-december.html?r=full
‘this sucker could go down’ — george w. bush
I again reference what I think is Ben’s site about the median price of homes on a month end basis nationwide - seems that Denver is at least 1.5X many other median prices in locales across the country - Champagne bubbles and the resultant hangover comin to a nabe near you soon.
The other ‘locales’ are already 2.5x long term trend.
How do you think that’s going to work out?
does train wreck ring any bells?
Yeah. Slow motion.
The national debt is really the priority now. 18 trillion and counting.
And remember they shortened the maturing times of the bonds to save money. So every year trillions in bonds come up for maturity and new bonds are issued to pay off the old ones.
18,000,000,000,000 * .03 = 540 billion dollars
18,000,000,000,000 * .05 = 900 billion dollars
A fed note bears no interest while a treasury note bears interest and has a maturity date.
I just don’t see how rates are gonna rise. Everyone has to sacrafice their interest on savings to pay off the debt!
Get use to it.
And whatever you do, hold onto every dollar you’ve got and get and stay out of debt. You’ll thank us later.
“Everyone has to sacrafice their interest on savings to pay off the debt!”
Yes. Which means earned income is going continue to beat out investment income, which then means if you are planning to retire soon then maybe you should rethink your plans.
A good job is a terrible thing to waste.
Consider:
1.If you retire and cash out your pension then you will have to suffer the consequences of receiving a low return on your cash out.
2. If you retire and decide to take the annuity then the company you retired from has to suffer the consequences of receiving a low return on the money they have set aside for you. Which means:
A. They will have to continue pouring money into your pension plan, or
B. They will have to cut your annuity.
Either way you are hosed.
Or…
You could get completely out of debt.
Design a lifestyle that is intentionally inexpensive, then build it.
Yes. Escape from needing to play The Game.
You mean
Not having a pricey smart phone plan for the family, with “free” iPhones for everyone?
Not having and expensive Satellite TV plan?
Not buying/leasing a $50,000 truck/SUV to tow the $40,000 boat?
What are you, a commie?
Blue and things are a lot smaller then even 10 years ago so most people can live in a lot less space..
I have seen almost everyday lately those big 50″ projection tvs for free…..even a few people will pay you $50 just to move it out of their house….or those huge Italian gaudy Greek china cabinets from the 70’s the amount of big stuff you can get in NYC for free lately is amazing
Design a lifestyle that is intentionally inexpensive, then build it.
Trailer parks in Florida have been around for decades. The original Going Oil City.
So what? A person with twice your income could live at half your expense without going all Florida trailer park.
Two former colleagues of mine who worked for the DOD (federal employees) and their wives retired in their 50s. One couple this year and the other couple awhile back.
50s is pretty young. They live in California in the high desert (where creosote and meth labs grow). There is no way they could afford a place on the coast by retiring so young. But they don’t care.
Federal government encourages its employees to retire in their 50s. I think one of the couple got in FERS barely. The other did not. I was not eligible when I started working in 1985. FERS is supposedly very lucrative.
Not sure how their future health care is handled via benefits.
I am in agreement with your advice Combo. I hope to be in good health to work to at least age 67. A full ten years more than my friends. Maybe add a couple years on top of that.
Of course if you are mostly into cash and 2 year or 3 year notes then I would understand why working longer is a must.
Slowly I started shifting money out of the stocks/stock asset class and now getting into 2 year notes. Will increase this over the next 12 years or so.
“I hope to be in good health to work to at least age 67″
That’s going to be the key. Keep yourself in shape, exercise and stay young at body and heart, so you can still enjoy a nice life post 67 to 70.
#MoveItOrLoseIt
I have a post on this in the other thread.
The old system is CSRS, pre 1983. I don’t know how lucrative it is. You’ll hear more stories of CSRS retirees making out well, but not for long. There are few CSRS people left, and they are now retiring at age 68-70 with 25,32,38,40 years.
Under the new FERS system, the pension is 1% * high 3 * years service. So someone who works up to $100K after 30 years gets $30/year + SS. There is no spiking with off-hour overtime as there is for police/fire. There is an additional 401K (called TSP) which we can contribute to. Although the eligibility age is still 56, no one is really encouraged to retire unless there is overstaffing.
Under that FERS system, figure $2,500 per month ($30k year) and maybe $3,500 per month social security, that’s $6,000 per month. Then the TSP on top of that. Not bad. But it won’t get you into coastal living unless it’s a DINK situation and both the couple retired.
Seems that my friends can do that since each of them are couples that worked decades for civil “service.”
What if I don’t care about coastal living? With everything I’ve heard about California and Florida, keep me the F away.
And professional DINKs do well in any environment, doesn’t have to be public sector.
Northern California (north of San Francisco) along the coast is very laid back and totally unlike southern California. People are friendlier. Mendocino, on northward to below Eureka on the coast is what I like. It’s a hippie culture. There are some yuppies, but hardly any house over $3,000,000. Check out Malibu and Manhattan Beach and Laguna Beach. Those prices are nuts. And the motorists here are probably as bad as Boston cabbies.
Not necessarily, I retired in mid 2012 and cashed out my pension, got waaay more than I would have normally due to artificially low interest rates, rolled that into an IRA and it is up about 25% in the meantime (as is my 401K)…the gain could all disappear (or worse) of course but thanks to the lunacy of QE a cashout made sense for me at the time AND I did not trust my former employer or the solvency of the PBGC.
The Drudge Report has *17* links about muslim terrorism in France on the top of its front page right now.
William Kristol, who runs the Weekly Standard, is rubbing his hands together and drooling over the prospect of sending America into another trillion dollar war for Israel.
The narrative must be scripted.
Must
Be
Scripted.
Think about it…
Lindsey Graham quote:
the U.S. “must use this horrific attack as an opportunity to re-evaluate our own national security posture” … and that Obama’s policies are “grossly insufficient and leave our homeland increasingly exposed.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-01-07/2016-republican-hopefuls-respond-to-the-paris-attack
How many children and grandchildren of Congress are gonna die in this next war?
The police officer getting shot looked fake.
Point blank range with an AK and no blood?
Come on now; get it together Hollywood.
“Point blank range with an AK and no blood?”
No blood
No recoil
No tears
Everyone Must Check In
Do you want me to read the card?
“Je Suis Charlie”
Grow up.
Does not seem like ISIS followers are being killed as fast as they are being recruited:
(IraqiNews.com) On Wednesday, MP for the State Coalition, Mowafaq Rubaie revealed that the number of ISIS elements in the city of Mosul ranges between 30,000 to 50,000, indicating that the majority of them are Iraqis.
Rubaie said in a statement received by IraqiNews.com “The number of ISIS terrorists did not exceed 3000 – 5000 when the organization first controlled the city of Mosul last June,” noting that, “Now, the number ranges between 30,000 to 50,000 elements.”
Rubaie added ,”The majority of those gangs fighters are Iraqis,” adding that, “Medium and senior leaders in these terrorist gangs are of foreign nationals.”
“The reason for the increasing number of fighters is due to the ability of foreign leaders to reach civilians to recruit them after being brainwashed,” he continued
“The narrative must be scripted.”
“Je Suis Charlie”
ya gotta be kidding me……
https://gma.yahoo.com/french-terror-suspect-failed-rapper-turned-jihadist-121111328–abc-news-topstories.html
Don’t turn to jihad NYC.
“The narrative must be scripted.”
If it’s not obvious by now that we need to rid the world of psychopathic Islamists and the global communist movement appeasers, I am not sure you will ever be convinced.
Here is a line from the movie “The Terminator” that will sum up the Islamist threat:
“It can’t be bargained with. It can’t be reasoned with. It doesn’t feel pity, or remorse, or fear. And it absolutely will not stop, ever, until you are dead.”
You may laugh or scoff, but unless you plan on living under Sharia Law and converting to Islam, that will be your future if we do nothing…and I don’t mean nation building, I mean no holds barred eradication from the planet.
“no holds barred eradication from the planet”
Didn’t they try that 70 years ago with another group of Sky Wizard believers?
They were killed due to their ethnic identify not their religious affiliation. Being an atheist did not save you from being killed if you had Jewish blood.
Apples and Oranges. Good luck out there. Their already fighting WWIII, we’re fighting WWGuilt.
#CarryWhenYouLeaveTheHouse
#CarryWhenYouLeaveTheHouse
I’m sure that a concealed pistol will save you if highly armed and well trained terrorists shoot at you.
You have a better chance than begging for your life. Also you can practice head and leg shots at the range, now days most mass murdering nuts bags wear body armor. Good luck out there.
#Don’tMakeMeConvertOrDieBro
A concealed pistol among the targeted staff would have definitely evened the odds.
“converting to Islam”
If that is really something to fear, have you really considered *why* it’s something to fear?
Did we have this problem in the 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s?
The civilized world has been a target of Islamo-Fascists for centuries.
#StampOutFascism
The killings were France’s fault, for allowing those cartoonists to insult Allah. At least that’s what this here “Opposing view” sez…
If a white supremacist Christian penned a similarly virulent screed, it would be summarily labeled hate speech.
But in this case, it is merely an “opposing view,” according to real journalists.
People know the consequences: Opposing view
Anjem Choudary
7:34 p.m. EST January 8, 2015
Why did France allow the tabloid to provoke Muslims?
Contrary to popular misconception, Islam does not mean peace but rather means submission to the commands of Allah alone. Therefore, Muslims do not believe in the concept of freedom of expression, as their speech and actions are determined by divine revelation and not based on people’s desires.
Although Muslims may not agree about the idea of freedom of expression, even non-Muslims who espouse it say it comes with responsibilities. In an increasingly unstable and insecure world, the potential consequences of insulting the Messenger Muhammad are known to Muslims and non-Muslims alike.
Muslims consider the honor of the Prophet Muhammad to be dearer to them than that of their parents or even themselves. To defend it is considered to be an obligation upon them. The strict punishment if found guilty of this crime under sharia (Islamic law) is capital punishment implementable by an Islamic State. This is because the Messenger Muhammad said, “Whoever insults a Prophet kill him.”
…
“The killings were France’s fault, for allowing those cartoonists to insult Allah.”
Europeans are very tolerant, but pushed too far and it’s game-over.
Warmist Warming Thursday
Climate Mission Impossible: Scientists Say Fossil Fuels Must Go Untapped
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/energy/2015/01/150107-fossil-fuel-unburnable-2-degree-climate-target-study/
“Scientists Say”
Who cares what scientists say? They’re all a bunch of Eurohomo socialists
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/31/us/why-republicans-keep-telling-everyone-theyre-not-scientists.html
George Will reviews two books and dumps a bucket of ice water on the Warmists
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/george-will-climate-changes-instructive-past/2015/01/07/2ae70ee6-95d2-11e4-aabd-d0b93ff613d5_story.html
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/01/07/peter-miesler-helps-expose-ushcn-homogenization-insanity-and-antarctic-illusions/
bummer when data does not support global warming.
George Will, the “Misinformer of the Year,” is caught misinforming again
“George Will’s Incorrect Claim on Historical Climate Change”
http://www.desmogblog.com/2015/01/07/george-will-s-incorrect-claim-historical-climate-change
George Will, the “Misinformer of the Year,” is caught misinforming again
George Will’s fifteen minutes were up decades ago. The neocons own his ašš and have tight grip on his sack.
CNBC: Low Oil Prices Pave the Way for New Carbon Taxes
Treasury Secretary published column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax
by Rob Garver | The Fiscal Times | January 7, 2015
When prominent members of both political parties talk about the possibility of taxing fossil fuels – you know something serious has shifted in U.S. politics.
On Monday morning, former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, a largely pro-business Democrat, published a column in The Washington Post calling for the imposition of a carbon tax.
“The case for carbon taxes has long been compelling,” Summers wrote. “With the recent steep fall in oil prices and associated declines in other energy prices, it has become overwhelming. There is room for debate about the size of the tax and about how the proceeds should be deployed. But there should be no doubt that, given the current zero tax rate on carbon, increased taxation would be desirable.”
Summers’ call for a carbon tax came just a day after prominent Republicans discussed the possibility of an increase in the federal gas tax to shore up the Federal Highway Trust Fund, which will run out of money this May.
On the front page of the Breitbart website I have an ad for Glenn Beck’s new book titled “Agenda 21: Into the Shadows”
Rosa Koire Talks Agenda 21 With Brian Engelman @ United We …
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aH1Pj1AVkI - 239k - Cached - Similar pages
May 11, 2014
CNBC: Low Oil Prices Pave the Way for New Carbon Taxes
Good luck getting a GOP controlled congress to go along with that.
George Will is a neo-con stooge.
Wouldn’t it be more efficient to simply knock out the tax breaks on fossil instead levying an extra layer of tax on top of tax breaks?
Maybe their sons are all tax accountants and they ran out of beer distributorships and international-business-relation sinecures to hand out.
Because health care 18% GDP = American Exceptionalism
New York Times - Health Premiums Rise More Slowly, but Workers Shoulder More of Cost
“Although the rise in premiums has slowed since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, workers who receive health insurance through their employers are shouldering more health care expenses at a time when wages are stagnant, according to a new report from the Commonwealth Fund that analyzed costs across the states.
These costs are particularly high — relative to median income — for workers in the South and south central states, where income is below the national average, the report found, even though the growth in premiums had slowed in several states in those regions.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/08/business/health-premiums-rise-more-slowly-but-workers-shoulder-more-of-cost.html
“You work three jobs? How uniquely American” — George W. Bush
But at least she doesn’t have to take her own TP to the hospital, right?
real journalists at the new york times bewail that europe is full of olds
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/07/opinion/an-aging-europes-decline.html?referrer=
fortunately, america doesn’t have these problems, as trains full of new children arrive here every day
how do you say horatio alger in mexican?
how do you say horatio alger in mexican?
My digital translator threw a divide by zero error.
From China Daily, one of the stories the U.S. MSM will not cover:
Beijing’s property market opened high at the beginning of this year with a record price sale.
A consortium that included China Resources, Shoukai Share and Ping An Real Estate bought a large residential site in central Beijing’s Fengtai district on Wednesday for 8.625 billion yuan ($1.39 billion), making it the most expensive plot in the capital.
The record was previously held by a commercial-residential site in Beijing’s central Hua Jia Hutong that was sold to Beijing Huarong for 7.46 billion yuan in August.
Wednesday’s price tag, 22 per cent higher than the government’s opening price of 7.07 billion yuan, represents 20,599 yuan per square meter.
The plot could yield a total gross floor area of 418,693 square meters.
A Wharf consortium paid 8.6 billion yuan for two adjoining sites in the same area on Monday.
In 2014, despite unprecedented property market downturn, Beijing government raked in 191.7 billion yuan, up 5 percent from a year ago, and topped cities across China, according to consultancy China Index Academy.
China is actively locking in contracts with countries to supply its ever increasing demand for oil, Obama’s war on Russia is the best thing to happen to China for years.
Even though the dollar has been pushed up almost a 1/2% today, oil is still up a few pennies, rather amazing. At what point does the U.S. price itself out of all markets by spiking the dollar? Ironically, Russia is benefiting two ways today, slightly higher oil and the ability to use the dollars its generating to buy goods from Japan and Europe which are cheaper due to the stronger dollar.
This war on Russia is getting expensive excerpt from a Bloomberg article, how dare Putin stand in the way of world government:
Germany praised Ukraine’s new government for pursuing an “ambitious” path to overhaul its economy as the country seeks to expand a bailout that financier George Soros said may require as much as $50 billion.
In Germany to seek new loans on top of Ukraine’s $17 billion International Monetary Fund-led rescue, Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk warned that Ukraine’s separatist conflict is a threat to Europe and people in the country’s easternmost regions were “hostages of Russian terrorists.” Bond yields fell for a second day as Soros said that the conflict poses a bigger danger to Europe’s economy than Greece.
when does the shooting start?
The shooting began when the CIA overthrew the duly elected leader of the Ukraine due to his refusal to join the EU.
Building ghost cities requires massive amounts of energy.
#EverythingWillGoUpForever
link to oil story:
http://qz.com/323046/china-is-bailing-out-the-worlds-teetering-oil-producers/
absolutely no cuts from opec:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-opec-oil-idUSKBN0KH1HA20150108
“In this discussion, I shall list some of the ways a money printing regime behaves differently from a taxation regime. You can then identify a money printing regime by its actions.”
http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2015/01/2015-everything-can-be-fixed-by.html
“Investors To Take Hit As 1st Default For Chinese Bond Market Looms”
‘The collapse of the bubble in China’s real estate market is about to hit international financial markets.’
http://fortune.com/2015/01/07/investors-to-take-hit-as-1st-default-for-chinese-bond-market-looms/
Just an example on how the MSM cherry picks stories from China Daily and only reports the negative. The fact that China is now allowing bankruptcies now, speaks to its increasing strength not weakness.
Prepare for a wave of defaults. Just like rising mortage defaults here in the US.
Sure Dan, China’s “increasing strenght” is the reason, not its increasing (and crushing) debt.
Do you think inflation in the US will take off once china has enough gold reserves to hedge is treasury portfolio?
When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?
When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?
They already sell more than twenty million cars per year and it will reach about 27 million in two years. They are already there. However, it is China’s service industries that are growing the fastest and because they are labor intensive and a time of a stable to declining work force double digit GDP increases are not possible.
Real wages will be up sharply again this year in China, wages up about 8% with inflation about 1.5%, we should be so lucky as to have a Chinese “collapse”:
http://enterpriseinnovation.net/article/salaries-hong-kong-forecast-increase-5-percent-2015-1519775906
There’s not enough gold in the world for China to hedge it’s treasury portfolio. It will have to load up on treasuries for the forseeable future, because its bloated industries are already starting to crumble under the weight of over capacity. They don’t have any other option but to double down on the exports, and in doing so they will create even more deflation in the world economy.
I think they are concerned about inflation eating away there dollar reserves. you only need a certain percentage of gold to back the reserves. whatever is lot by inflation will be gained by gold. That is their goal. There is plenty of gold to make it happen.
China is unique in that regard. They’re experiencing rampant inflation.
source? I see that they have about 1.5% inflation.
“China is unique in that regard. They’re experiencing rampant inflation.”
You love to make up the facts as you post don’t you?
How about deflation in producer goods and 1.5% CPI inflation? Facts are stubborn things:
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-01/07/content_19262916.htm
Correction: The were. Now it’s nothing but a deflating economy.
“Facts are stubborn things…”
It helps one to think more clearly if one calls things by their right names. The Communist Party daily press release is not necessarily factual, rather doubtfully so.
Perhaps I am stuck in the past on this, but these are the same gang who murdered 30 million of their people not so long ago, and called it progress. It is offensive to quote them and call it fact.
Perhaps I am stuck in the past on this, but these are the same gang who murdered 30 million of their people not so long ago, and called it progress. It is offensive to quote them and call it fact.
Mao was the biggest killer the world ever knew. 30 million is a conservative estimate. However, virtually all the killings occurred prior to 1979. Abe’s father was a war criminal, does that mean we should still be hostile to Japan? Mao is no longer with us and China’s present human rights abuses are no worse than an average developing nation. Of course, that is a very low bar. How long you hold people responsible is a subjective judgment.
Well we see it differently. The Japanese are a people who hold honor high and have repudiated many of the ways of the past, so it would seem. I have found them to take one’s word as an unbreakable contract. The Chinese government has been handed down from Mao intact and in my experience there is no reverence for human life, freedom, truth, contracts & etc. and no repudiation of the ways of the not so distant past. Lying, stealing and corruption are not immoral in China, unless you are out of favor. I have an honest friend and business partner of two decades in Taiwan who views things the same way, and some friends stateside that have been robbed mercilessly by so-called upstanding Chinese friends and business associates. I do not know a lot, but I don’t trust what the government publishes as “truth”. It doesn’t need to be for them. It’s their culture.
The “Oh, look at Japan.” is weak.
BTW, I have an abacus and know how to use it. Their numbers do not add up, though I am sure you will continue to be enamored by them.
“When will china have a strong enough consumer base to stop relying so much on its exports?”
They may need to end their communistic command-and-control economic dictatorship before they can develop a self-sufficient consumer economy.
Sure Dan, China’s “increasing strenght” is the reason, not its increasing (and crushing) debt.
Yes. They are confident enough about their economy to allow defaults. While we have forgotten about moral hazard, they are learning its importance.
“They are confident enough about their economy…”
We can see that. It’s why they have collapsed the supply network for everything their economy is based on; coal, iron, oil and credit. It’s their sheer confidence manifested.
Collapsing commodities prices are a great indicator of Chinese economic confidence!
“China is now allowing bankruptcies now…”
That has got to be the funny of the day, and I don’t mean the childish grammar.
Business bankruptcy in China is not “new”.
Personal bankruptcy is not allowed.
Jail.
Rising defaults is not a sign of strength.
Yawn…
We need an official to come out every week and say they are going to print some more cash with a new QE program.
How many people are working and how productive are they? Its really as simple as that.
As long as SOME folks are highly productive, QE programs can be used to transfer the wealth created to 0.1% Ownership Society members.
Region V forecast -
Global warming my a**!!!!!
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Chicago&state=IL&site=LOT&textField1=41.837&textField2=-87.685&e=1#.VK6lENLF-VA
CraterRage® Photo Of The Day
http://goo.gl/joxwW5
another day another fed induced short covering rally. They come out at the perfect times dont they?
“China In 2015: Deflation, Devaluation and Default”
http://www.chinamoneynetwork.com/2015/01/08/china-in-2015-deflation-devaluation-and-default
“This is also why globally the bond market has TRIPLED in the last 15 years: as bonds come due, bankrupt Governments have been forced to issue MORE debt to pay back bondholders.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/100-trillion-reason-why-central-banks-are-terrified-debt-deflation
“Spectre Of Sovereign Bond Defaults Looms”
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51d6abd0-85ea-11e4-a105-00144feabdc0.html
Have the central bankers decided enough is enough on the oil rout?
$200 bn in debt looms over American oil and gas
First shale company filed for bankruptcy on Sunday…
by RT.com | January 8, 2015
Plummeting Brent oil prices are putting pressure on North American shale, which has sunk hundreds of billions of dollars into investment, and could soon come crashing down.
Tempted by big returns, shale companies have borrowed more than $200 billion in bonds and loans, from Wall Street and London, to cover development and projects that may not even come to fruition. Oil producers’ debt since 2010 has increased more than 55 percent, and revenues have slowed, rising only 36 percent from September 2014, compared to 2010, according to the Wall Street Journal.
After its fall, the industry will start back up because the oil is needed. However, since their cost of capital will be higher, due to the defaults, the price of oil will need to be even higher. So within a few years we will be paying more at the pump then we did last July. Call it the 2016, October surprise.
Good point. It’s like we need more credit expansion, to build more houses around the world, and roads to nowhere, and steel mills to make it happen. That’s what we need to make the price of oil go back up to ridiculous. We need this, so it must happen.
Or maybe we don’t need empty housing and factories and we don’t need so much oil. It’s all rather confusing if you are living in the mania. It’s all rather absurd if you’re not.
If a new army of Fang nu volunteers steps up, we’ll have the one outcome, if not, the other. It will have to be a very large army, where can we find them?
http://nypost.com/2015/01/08/its-a-dirty-job-trying-to-unravel-the-feds-employment-report/
Obama announces plan that could save home buyers hundreds of dollars a year
By Dina ElBoghdady January 7 at 4:30 PM
President Obama plans to highlight the new policy Thursday when he delivers a speech in Phoenix about the housing market, which has been struggling to fully recover in part because mortgage costs are high and lending standards tight. Already, the president’s critics are bashing the decision. They say lowering the fees heightens the chances of a taxpayer-funded bailout for the agency in the future.
Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Tex.) said in a statement Wednesday that “if President Obama follows through on today’s pledge, he will be increasing the likelihood that taxpayers will have to foot the bill for yet another bailout.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/…/ -
Obama announces plan that could save home buyers hundreds of dollars a year
I’ve seen click bait with that same title every day for years.
‘obama always goes reckless in words and deeds, like a monkey in a tropical forest’ — kim jong un
Monkey in a tropical forest = Curious George
Sounds like he is calling him a trained monkey without the training.
Comment by phony scandals
2015-01-08 09:48:36
Obama announces plan that could save home buyers hundreds of dollars a year - By Dina ElBoghdady
washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2015/01/07/obama-to-announce-lower-fees-for-a-mortgage-thats-popular-with-first-time-buyers/
What goes up must come down….
http://youtu.be/qi9sLkyhhlE
cra cra
Sing it…
You didn’t build that…..er…..we didn’t tax that…uh……what?……oh….USA, USA, USA!!!
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmuller/2015/01/08/gm-says-booming-u-s-auto-industry-still-has-room-to-grow/
Another liberal hack jumping the sinking liberal ship?
http://www.nationaljournal.com/congress/senator-barbara-boxer-is-retiring-20150108
Isn’t she like a million years old?
So is Nancy Pelosi and she keeps running.
Especially when John Boehner is trying to kiss her!
Someone Please Help Nancy Pelosi Escape This John Boehner Kiss
AnnaMerlan
Tuesday 5:20pm
Ohio Republican and man-sized Oompa Loompa John Boehner was re-elected today to his third term as speaker for the House of Representatives, despite some two dozen fractious Tea Partiers voting against him for not being anti-Obama enough. To celebrate, Boehener gave Nancy Pelosi the most uncomfortable kiss in the history of dry, leathery smooches:
…
Isn’t she like a million years old?
Yes, but she looks younger. About two weeks younger, I would say.
http://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts#on
“While the US can probably decouple from global growth conditions long enough to justify a Fed rate hike in the coming months, our global financial system is far too levered, far too interconnected, and far too gravely mismanaged for the US to continue booming as commodity prices collapse and the emerging-market borrowing bonanza comes to an abrupt and violent end. The deflationary storm can blow back at us far more quickly than the FOMC believes.”
The deflationary storm can blow back at us far more quickly than the FOMC believes
Cheaper imported crap at WalMart?
Cheaper imported crap at WalMart?
yea more of that but this would continue no matter what the dollar did.
Carry trade gone wrong by a US dollar going up in value. Imagine you work at a Bank and borrowed billions in US dollars at near 0% and invested in pesos paying 7%. leverage up 10 to 1 get 70% a year. Nice bonus living large.
but now the peso ( or whatever ) is crashing against the dollar. how to pay Back all those dollars ?? No bonus for you.
Money is lost and “and the emerging-market borrowing bonanza comes to an abrupt and violent end. ”
I wonder if the Banker boys saw this oil crash, dollar rise coming ?
I wonder if the Banker boys saw this oil crash, dollar rise coming ?
The ones at the top did. As the wealth get’s more and more concentrated the sharks will start feeding on their own. There are so many big fish in little ponds that soon will become whale food.
The rate hike punt into 2016 or later has already occurred, as evidenced by the irrationally exuberant stock market rally of the past couple of days.
A crucial piece of the Keystone XL pipeline puzzle could fall into place as soon as Friday, with a Nebraska court set to deliver a long-awaited ruling on whether the project’s proposed route through the state is legal.
The case centers on whether Gov. Dave Heineman, a Republican, and the nonpartisan Nebraska Legislature exceeded their authority by changing state law to expedite Keystone
The highly anticipated decision won’t seal the fate of the oil sands pipeline one way or the other, but it will signal whether years of additional delays are on the horizon or whether President Obama finally will be forced to give the definitive “yes” or “no” to the project.
Of course it is a Republican trying to take away a states rights.
Of course it is a Republican trying to take away a states rights.
Really, so Obama is protecting states’ rights? He is not just hiding behind an endless state department study because he is too gutless to make the call?
States rights… no this is likely a federal issue due to interstate commerce clause. I guess the states could get around it by “buying” the oil at the northern line of the state, control it as it flows through the state, and then “selling” it at the southern line to the next state, and so on. With a little toll-booth at each line, of course. Making the oil very expensive by the time it got to Houston. Wouldn’t THAT frost the Canadian maple leaves.
Some evidence of shadow inventory: All those renters rushing into rentals - what happened to their houses? I don’t think we suffered a population boom, and regardless, millenials and illegals are probably not rushing out to buy the houses they vacated. So what happened to those houses?
Absolutely.
They’re still there my friend. Many occupied, many more unoccupied. All 25 million of them. And growing.
Those homes have become the very rentals that they are rushing into.
I’ve heard anecdotal stories of folks who walked away from their mortgage, only to rent a home that was lost to foreclosure a few blocks or streets away. They liked the neighborhood, didn’t want to move their kids out of school, etc. It was a giant game of musical chairs (houses).
The important data to track is the vacancy rate.
And you say we didn’t have a population boom? You’re right. But from 2008 until 2013, we added about 12 million people. That’s not an insignificant number.
You’re a degenerate gambler Rental_Fraud.
I’m intrigued by the high demand for multi-family rentals. In this area, go to any apartment complex and they’re packed. Also, I doubt people went from foreclosed houses to similar houses, since if they could afford the rent on the rental, they could almost certainly afford the mortgage as well (I’ve never seen any deals on house rentals - the payments seem about even with the mortgage on the house typically).
It’s the context I personally observed of multifamily units being the destination of a lot of renters. That got me to thinking about what happened to their houses.
I agree - data is important. Any my observation contains a small sample size. But, it’s one of those “things that make you go hmmm.”
We talk about China the developing world’s State Owned Enterprises. But we have massive state owned enterprises here, in the form of Fannie and Freddie, and various real estate agencies like FHA. Is there an analogue of the US state-owned enterprises like Fannie and Freddie in the rest of the world?
If they’re going to do these massive financial sector bailouts, shouldn’t the leadership of the firms receiving that largesse be removed at a minimum? GM’s CEO was removed (but his right-hand man assumed command). But even if the right-hand men assume command, should there have been at least a little bit of management change?
Not only have they actively been protected from legal repercussions, they’re still actively running the show!
I know the rationales for the bailouts, but these sorts of disconnects make it seem that the focus was less on helping the society at large and more on helping the cronies and future employers.
We FBed some folks….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-08/president-obama-explains-how-fhas-3-down-mortgages-are-great-america-live-feed
So far as I am aware, there are no plans in place to put guns to anyone’s head to make them sign up for an FHA mortgage.
Robert Redford says: (is he smarter than you?)
The oil and gas industry pumped $53.1 million into last year’s congressional campaigns–87 percent of which went to Republican candidates. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell raked in $608,000 from the industry for his 2014 campaign, and now he is putting Keystone XL at the heart of his big polluter agenda. But this isn’t just a battle over industry influence. This is a choice about the kind of nation we want to live in. Do we want to live in a country where expert reviews don’t matter and industry profits trump our families’ health? Do we want to lock ourselves into a fuel that generates 17 percent more climate change pollution than crude oil and makes our children more vulnerable to extreme weather? Or do we want something better?
Please McConnel is about to push through fast track trade authority so Obama can sign the trans pacific partnership. Then corporations will have rights that rank higher than any individual countries laws regarding environments and worker safety etc.
Dems and Repugs are two sides of the same coin.
“Gilbert got a $2,400 a month housing allowance for his Chelsea apartment and a $600 spending budget from Mom and Dad.”
Man Who Allegedly Killed Father Over Allowance Accused of Arson
By Katie Zavadski
January 6, 2015 10:10 a.m.
Tommy Gilbert, the 30-year-old son of hedge-fund manager Thomas Gilbert, was arraigned Monday night on charges of second-degree murder and weapons possession after he allegedly killed his father on Sunday afternoon, staging the scene to look like a suicide. The court denied him bail, as there’s some speculation that Gilbert Jr. was looking to flee the city (at least before he got distracted by his TV).
This isn’t Tommy’s first run-in with the dark side. The New York Post reports that the gym-rat had a long history of petty beefs and was reliant on his parents for much of his lifestyle. According to the Post’s sources, the younger Gilbert got a $2,400 a month housing allowance for his Chelsea apartment and a $600 spending budget from Mom and Dad. The deadly conflict allegedly arose when the elders decided to cut his spending budget by $200 (and eventually by $100 more). Though this still would have left Gilbert with more than $2,500 a month to live off, that’s probably not much when you’re spinning in the black-tie party circuit, as Gilbert allegedly was.
And, of course, the money was a drop in the bucket after all the parents had invested in his fancy education: The younger Gilbert attended the Upper East Side’s Buckley School, where annual tuition is more than $30,000 a year, followed by the $54,000-annually Deerfield School in Massachusetts. After high school, he followed in his father’s footsteps and enrolled at Princeton University, where he studied economics and graduated in 2009.
Despite these early privileges, Tommy Gilbert — according to his ex-girlfriend, socialite Anna Rothschild — preferred to focus on hitting the gym and surfing. Though the pair broke up in May, they kept in touch, and Rothschild said a murder “is the last thing in a million years that I thought he could do.” When he wanted to follow in his dad’s footsteps and start a hedge fund, “his dad wouldn’t help him and told him he was stupid.” Other anonymous sources suggested that the son suffered from obsessive compulsive disorder and was off his medication at the time of the attack.
But he was also vengeful. The Post alleges that Gilbert Jr. was a nuisance to his parents’ East Hampton community. When a local 17th-century house burned down in September, he was named as the main suspect, though he hasn’t yet been charged. The 30-year-old is said to have fought with the family’s son over a girl — and one source even told the Post that he may have killed that family’s innocent dog ahead of the fire.
Rothschild said he was also desperately lonely. His parents may have been his only friends: “His phone never rang. No one texted him or called him. The one time it rang in four months while we were together, it was his mother,” Rothschild told the Post.
nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/01/hedge-fund-son-had-troubled-past.html - 249k -
There’s a whole lotta craterin’ goin’ on.
There’s a whole lotta craterin’ goin’ on.
+1 Yep. We know a hard working millennial dual STEM income family with kids who moved to the Bakken Shale region because they couldn’t afford the Seattle area. Didn’t receive a Christmas card this year.
Does the prospect of deflation have you worried?
If you have little or no debt, then why is deflation even a concern?
The euro zone slides into deflation
The good and the bad
Jan 7th 2015, 13:28 by P.W. | LONDON
TODAY’S figures from Eurostat confirmed what the markets had expected following reports already out from Spain and Germany: consumer prices are now falling across the euro zone. Inflation turned negative in December, with prices down by 0.2% on their level in December 2013. This is the first time that the euro area has experienced deflation since 2009, when headline inflation went below zero for five months (from June till October).
As was the case in 2009, the slide into deflation has been caused by the oil-price slump as it feeds through to energy prices. “Core” inflation (which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco), actually edged up in December to 0.8%, from 0.7% in November.
Deflation can be good or bad, depending upon what is driving it and how long it lasts. A short burst of deflation associated with an oil-price fall is good, since it acts as a tax cut, boosting consumers’ real purchasing power. That’s a timely boost for the moribund euro-zone economy. Although the single-currency club appears to have avoided outright recession in 2014, growth became so anaemic that it made little difference. Purchasing-manager indices of activity in the services and manufacturing sectors in the final three months of 2014, compiled by data-firm Markit, were the weakest since the third quarter of 2013, suggesting that growth remained feeble in late 2014.
Deflation is bad, if it persists and people and businesses come to expect prices to fall. That can lead to slacker spending since it makes sense to postpone purchases and pay lower prices at a later juncture. A prolonged period of deflation would be crippling for the euro zone because both public and private debt are extremely high in parts of the region. The real burden of debt, which is generally fixed in nominal terms, rises when prices fall.
…
At the risk of inviting AlbqDan to opine, is China likely to hit its growth target?
5:40 am HKT
Jan 9, 2015
Economy & Business
Early Look: China’s Economy Set to Miss Growth Target
The world will be watching on Jan. 20, as China unveils 2014 annual growth figures that most likely will miss the government’s economic target for the first time since 1998.
The question is how wide the world’s No. 2 economy will be of the mark.
Gross domestic product likely grew 7.2% year-on-year in the fourth quarter, according to the median forecast of 14 economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal. That puts China on track for 7.3% for the 2014 as a whole – a touch below the target of about 7.5%.
Though policy makers have repeatedly said the target is only approximate, the gap is symbolically significant in a time when China is looking at balancing growth with quality of life and sustainability issues. Growth in 2015 is likely to be slower still, with UBS forecasting 6.8% growth for the year.
“For 2015, we expect a slow grind,” said Tao Wang, chief China economist at the Swiss bank. “Persistent economic difficulties will likely increase the pressure for faster reforms in 2015.”
China’s export sector has had a passable year, with demand from the wider world up modestly. Exports are forecast to grow 6.6% on-year in December, up from 4.7% in November, according to the Journal’s survey.
…
The markets are bleeding green again. All is well!
phony scandals