Greed Is No Accident
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “President Obama bragged Thursday it was ‘no accident’ that the housing market rebounded under his administration, saying his economic policies helped usher in a construction boom and the lowest foreclosure rate since 2006. The president used the speech to announce that he was slashing the fees charged by the government to insure federally backed mortgages — a move the White House says could save 800,000 homeowners an average of $900 per year.”
“Republican lawmakers have decried the move, saying they remained concerned the government insurance program does not have a cushion if the housing market again stumbled. ‘Instead of better protecting taxpayers from incurring losses through these government initiatives during a future economic downturn, the government is involved in a race to the bottom by reducing taxpayer protections to expand government credit guarantees,’ Sens. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) and David Vitter (R-La.) said in a letter to the administration. ‘We are deeply concerned about placing the taxpayer in jeopardy by underpricing these government-guaranteed loans.’”
“For the second year in a row, Virginia tops the list of the 10 most expensive homes sold in the D.C. region. Michael Rankin, managing partner at TTR Sotheby’s was the listing agent for three sales of at least $6 million each last year, two of which were the same property. He sold a condominium at 3303 Water St. NW in Georgetown twice, once in March and then again in October for $6 million each time. ‘I haven’t seen that market before,’ he said. ‘You don’t pay $6 million for apartments in Washington. That’s a huge number. And to do it twice in [seven] months, I think that spoke to some of what was in the market last year.’”
“Chris Anderson, the 2015 president of the San Diego Association of Realtors, says the real estate market has stabilized. Expect prices to climb again this year, attracting interest. ‘It usually causes buyers to flood our market because they want to get in while they’re still low … and so we will probably have more sales and that will cause a little more appreciation,’ said Anderson. She cautions first-time homebuyers not to sit on the fence trying to save up more money even if they have enough for a down payment. ‘If you waited one year from ‘13 to ‘14, you’re paying about $30,000 more for the median priced home … you can’t save 30,000 in a year, so buy now and you can catch that appreciation,’ she said.”
“Prices across all property types and neighborhoods climbed 5 percent in the quarter to a median of $916,000, Corcoran Group said. ‘Everybody wants in,’ Pamela Liebman, president of Corcoran Group, said. ‘It doesn’t matter if you’re a single person, a couple, a family, someone from New York, someone from China, someone from Los Angeles, someone from the Midwest. This widespread demand has contributed to this run-up in prices.’”
“Many industry analysts believe smaller to midsize corporate investors will begin to sell their inventory this year to cash out on sharp gains in equity. ‘Smaller and midsize firms will begin selling this year,’ said Jack McCabe, a Florida real estate consultant who correctly predicted the downturn in the market that led to the recession. ‘But they will try to camouflage it, so they don’t overflood the market.’”
“A Herald-Tribune investigation in late 2013 showed these groups routinely outbid owner-occupiers by paying significantly more for houses than what the same properties fetched just months earlier. Colony, for example, bought some Sarasota homes for a markup of 275 percent from the previous price just months earlier.”
“The price of oil continues to drop, now at well under $50 a barrel. Because of that some oil companies have started to lay off employees, and the analysts say Houston’s economy is going to take a hit. We’ve already seen layoffs at Halliburton and the Civeo Corporation, and now there’s a second round of layoffs at BP. Patrick Jankowski at the Greater Houston Partnership says more jobs will be lost. ‘Our forecast calls for there to be a little over 9,000 jobs lost in the energy industry this year,’ Jankowski told KTRH News.”
“Jankowski says we’re getting to the point where you’ll notice the impact on Houston’s economy. ‘We’ll see slowing down in housing. There will be fewer fancy cars being bought, and you’ll start to see some slowdown in job growth,’ Jankowski predicted. Ultimately, Jankowski says the theory that Houston’s economy is diversified is about to be put to the test.”
“The same place the owners of that five-bedroom house were pocketing upwards of $5,000 per month just two years ago, and some homeowners were renting out their couches for $100 per night to workers flooding into the area. To put it bluntly, the real estate bubble that created such a frenzy in recent years in Labrador West, an area known as the iron ore capital of Canada, has officially burst. The worldwide market for iron ore, much like oil, has been in freefall, plummeting more than 60 per cent in three years.”
“Homes that may have fetched $50,000 a decade ago were selling for up to $400,000, and many new workers had little choice but to buy. Many newly unemployed mine workers in Labrador West are now stuck with mortgages that are far greater than the value of their homes, and dwindling job prospects. ‘A lot of people got themselves in a bad way,’ said Jason Penney, president of United Steelworkers Local 6285, which represented the workers at Wabush mines. ‘Two years ago it was a very difficult time to even find a house to purchase. Today, everywhere you look there seems to be a For Sale sign.’”
“Resale prices at luxury projects in neighborhoods popular among foreign buyers took a hit in 2014, raising concerns that foreigners could exit Singapore’s real estate market en mass. Last year saw several high-end apartments in the city-state’s exclusive enclave of Sentosa Cove and the highly sought after address of Orchard Road sell at hefty losses. ‘The concern around foreigners exiting en mass came about because resale values in foreign enclaves such as Orchard and Sentosa have dropped more than other areas,’ Ng Wee Siang, head of research at Maybank told CNBC. ‘While there have been more fire sales, some of them have their own peculiar reasons - we can’t jump to the conclusion that it is because foreigners are walking away.’”
“Aggregators have backed the role of interest-only loans despite a warning from regulators and a scare campaign by A Current Affair. The current affairs show slammed interest-only loans last week, describing them as loans that are ‘fast and easy to get from the banks,’ but which ‘can come at a huge cost.’ The Nine Network program reported that one borrower and her family ‘lost their dream home because they couldn’t keep up with their interest-only loan.’ Another borrower said he had lost approximately $150,000 from taking on an interest-only loan.”
“According to ASIC, interest-only loans as a percentage of new housing loan approvals by banks reached a new high of 42.5 per cent in the September quarter. ‘While house prices have been experiencing growth in many parts of Australia, it remains critical that lenders are not putting consumers into unsuitable loans that could see them end up with unsustainable levels of debt,’ ASIC chairman Peter Kell said.”
“Many factors account for the high vacancy rate estimated at 60-70 percent in Ikoyi housing market. Greed and the lingering petroleum industry bill (PIB) have been identified as major contributors to the situation in this upscale market. Ikoyi, a highbrow location in Lagos, is one of the most expensive property markets in Nigeria, where house prices and rents are not only out of reach, but also dollar-denominated in some cases. ‘Obviously, there are many vacant houses in Ikoyi and a major reason for this is that our people at a point became very greedy. Some of them started asking for $150,000 per annum for a three-bedroom apartment. So, immediately the Ikoyi-Lekki Link Bridge was done, many people realized that in Lekki, they could get a similar unit at half the price and that was it for the Ikoyi mansions.’ Omochiere Aisagbonhi, President/CEO of Omais Investment, confirmed to BusinessDay.”
“To Aisagbonhi, the situation in Ikoyi is a welcome development, explaining that it is part of the many things that have happened in the property market in the past three to four years that are giving power back to the consumer. ‘If you have money, you determine what you want to pay unlike in the past when the seller dictated the price. Now, there are many products in the market and so, it is buyer’s market. In Ikoyi, it is the tenant that determines what rent he wants to pay,’ he emphasised.”
“‘Everybody wants in,’ Pamela Liebman, president of Corcoran Group, said.”
Proving the mania rages onwards and upwards…
a move the White House says could save 800,000 homeowners an average of $900 per year.”
Seriously? If $900 a year matters you really should not be buying a house these days. And is the fee being cut tied to the purchase price or is it a flat fee. Because if it is tied to price that is even worse.
This won’t matter at all in the big picture and knowing how this works makes me wonder why they are doing it at all? Gotta be some regulatory capture and money for cronies in there somewhere.
Reminds me of Bush’s stimulus checks.
Perhaps cronies, lobbyists, and regulators benefitting from the revolving door are the ones buying the super-expensive houses in Virginia. I’m surprised that the emergence of the D.C. suburban counties as the nation’s richest hasn’t generated more disgust. May the odds be ever in your favor!
“If $900 a year matters you really should not be buying a house these days.”
+1 Well said.
That’s what they told me about NY real estate in 1987. You have to buy now!
I bought for one-third off in 1994.
That place is an awful hell hole.
I have a hard time visiting those big cities for very long. I’d go nuts.
That particular place you keep one eye on the thugs and the other on the cops.
ABC…Always Be Closing baby!
Always Be Cratering
Put down that coffee pot!
‘Just two years ago, this Texas town known mostly for its annual rattlesnake roundup seemed to be on the brink of a transformation. Expecting a huge influx of oil workers, local leaders spent tens of millions of dollars to improve the courthouse, build a new law-enforcement center and upgrade the hospital. Hotels, truck stops and housing subdivisions were to follow, all catering to truck drivers and roughnecks.’
‘Sweetwater envisioned becoming a major player in the hydraulic-fracturing boom, thanks to its location atop the Cline Shale, once estimated to be the nation’s largest underground petroleum formation. But those ambitions are fading fast as the plummeting price of oil causes investors to pull back, cutting off the projects that were supposed to pay for a bright new future. Now the town of 11,000 awaits layoffs and budget cuts and defers its dreams.’
“Here we are trying to figure out: Is this a six-month problem or is it all over?” said Greg Wortham, head of the Cline Shale Alliance, a private group founded to prepare the region for the oil workers.’
“Sweetwater and the Cline are like the first domino falling,” said Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist focused on Texas energy. “Cline Shale development and all of the marvelous benefits are in the process of being significantly interrupted.”
‘Sue Young, economic development director in neighboring Mitchell County, agreed: “The frenzy is gone.”
‘Chris Velez, the head bartender at Buck’s Bar-B-Que in Sweetwater, worries that the restaurant’s $500,000 addition will turn out to be worthless. “The gas prices are trickling down and hitting us here,” he said. Surveying the empty dance floor, he added, “Hardly anyone comes in here anymore.”
Sounds like they were expecting TROUBLE!
Expecting a huge influx of oil workers, local leaders spent tens of millions of dollars to improve the courthouse, build a new law-enforcement center and upgrade the hospital.
“Sounds like they were expecting TROUBLE!”
Or just enjoying the spending of money.
All the law and order borrowed money can buy!
They’re gonna have real trouble when the laid off police start hanging out in the huge empty bars, drowning their sorrows.
That puts a whole different spin on Chuck Prince’s infamous comment about dancing.
I can’t help but laugh at these pathetic sob stories. More tales of woe after another bubble collapses.
“Is this a six-month problem or is it all over?”
“How did you go bankrupt? Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.” –Ernest Hemingway
‘During the incessant rainstorms that closed out the year, a massive sinkhole opened up in the Richmond District. A wit soon posted a Craigslist parody ad; the gaping maw in the midst of an intersection was described as San Francisco’s latest apartment boasting a “Sun roof and exciting ambient city soundscapes [to] provide for excellent entertaining.” Yours for $2,800 a month. Act now.’
‘And that was funny. But it was also painful. It didn’t feel as crazy as it ought to feel.’
‘That’s because, while San Francisco’s natural state is a dry grass-strewn desert, its real estate status has gone banana farm. As in: crazy.’
‘Median home prices in the city have exceeded $1 million. Median prices in the Excelsior, the city’s “affordable” neighborhood, have topped $770,000. The median rent for a two-bedroom flat has rocketed past $4,000; San Francisco’s rents are the highest in the nation. The Tongan embassy decamped this year to Burlingame because San Francisco’s rents are just too damn high. Even for a kingdom.’
‘San Francisco’s banana farm-crazy housing situation managed, this year, to get crazier, however. The tangible example is a modest, 1,500 square-foot home on 23rd Avenue that was, incongruously, advertised for sale in the BizJournals’ commercial real-estate “Hotels & Motels” section.’
‘It was pitched as an “income-producing San Francisco home” which “grossed $71,452 in 2013, and is solidly booked with increased daily vacation rentals for 2014.”
Well, it is different there…
Banana farm crazy?
Bananas imported into America are actually grown on huge plantations.
I have been to a few in Honduras.
But what is the link of banana farms to “crazy”? Have to say I’ve never heard of that before…
It is. The tech firms throw more and more cash at us techies, drawing more of us here. Even with taxes and rent figured in, I do quite a bit better here than I did in Washington with no state tax and cheap rent.
When the magic VC cash goes away, things are going to go south in a hurry though. I’m all set to take my cash and bug out for someplace cheap.
I’m all set to take my cash and bug out for someplace cheap ??
You along with many others….Its a common thread with many 30-40 something singles….
If that’s everybody’s plan, high finance will get there first, just like it’s ready to grab the wealth of retiring Boomers. There will be plenty of places to shear the sheep, so to speak, before they arrive in the fold.
A lot of my coworkers have serious money invested in the stock market. I have a feeling by the end of the year they will have seriously less money in the stock market, and not from withdrawing it.
A letter to the editor at Las Cruces Sun-News:
To the caller who said he and his wife would like to leave Las Cruces, so would we; however, the city government has destroyed our property values. We’d take a big loss even if we could find a buyer for our house in this glut of housing for sale.
But we are not going to give our house away!!!!
It’s the government’s job to protect home values!
‘Rents rose 3.6% last year, according to Reis Inc., a real-estate research firm, and the apartment vacancy rate ended the year at 4.2%, near its lowest level since 2001. But the number of new units added to the market also reached a 13-year high, and even more units are headed onto the market this year.’
‘The days of excess demand “are likely over,” said Ryan Severino, senior economist at Reis, in written commentary. “This is the beginning of an up cycle in vacancy, and demand will struggle to keep pace with the significant amounts of new construction that should come online over the next few years.”
‘One sign that the cycle may have neared a turn: The vacancy rate for U.S. apartments during the fourth quarter didn’t fall year-over-year for the first time in four years, ending a streak of 17 straight quarters in which vacancies edged down year-over-year.’
‘While an improving job market will give landlords enough leverage to keep increasing rents, “over time, this will be stymied by the sheer number of new units that are going to come online, increasing competition in the market,” Mr. Severino said.’
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth increased briskly in December and the jobless rate dropped to a 6-1/2 year low, but wages slipped in the latest sign a tightening labor market has yet to give much of a boost to workers.
this will be stymied by the sheer number of new units that are going to come online ??
Yep….Outrageous profits usually bring ruiness competition…
I think I’ve noted this before, but if you look at PREA’s “compendium of statistics” they show supply (new construction) and demand for various types of property in 54 major markets.
Notable to me a few months ago was that nearly all of the property types had pretty good metrics…more demand than new supply, vacancy rates were falling.
The exception was apartments. They had more supply than demand. Now that appears to have reversed itself, but the pipeline of new apartments has fully recovered–people continue to build.
As in any real estate cycle, once development ramps up considerably, you should be hyper-vigilant. IMHO, apartment owners are still quite complacent.
I just pulled the new compendium of statistics (released early this week). The other interesting slide shows CMBS issuance by year. From 2000-2003, the global CMBS issuance rose from $59Billion to about $100Billion, bu then launched into the stratosphere…$131B in 2004, peaking at $314B in 2007.
Then the collapse to almost nothing in 2009.
It has since recovered back to $99B in 2013 (effectively the same as 2001-2003). The preliminary reading for 2014 is $100B.
In other words, we are not YET seeing a repeat of the credit conditions of 2004-2007 as it relates to CMBS loans.
Wrong Rental_Fraud.
“Kroll Bond Rating Agency Releases 2015 CMBS Outlook”
http://insurancenewsnet.com/oarticle/2015/01/01/kroll-bond-rating-agency-releases-2015-cmbs-outlook-a-582381.html
“Credit metrics continued to weaken as leverage climbed to new post crisis highs and debt service trended downward despite lower interest rates and the prevalent use of interest-only loan structures.”
Welcome to 2007 Subprime on steroids
Note the words “post crisis highs”. They do not come close to comparing to what credit markets looked like in 2007.
It’s 3 times worse.
3 times worse? That is a bit exaggerated.
“However, the multifamily and lodging sectors are standouts, having experienced marked gains over the past few years. The performance of these two sectors in many markets is at or above that experienced during the height of the last real estate cycle.”
Foreclosures still 3 times the normal level
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreclosures-still-3-times-the-normal-level-2014-10-02
Jingle_Fraud. …. Rental_Fraud…. it’s all the same degenerate gambler.
“3 times worse? That is a bit exaggerated.”
You’re backpedaling.
I would venture the foreclosure activity (which has declined for the last 3 years) is mostly related to bubble loans made in 2005-2007.
I would “venture to say” you’re ignoring the foreclosure moratoriums in effect in all 50 states Jingle_Fraud.
Struggling Homeowners Are Getting an Early Christmas Gift from Lenders
By Matthew Frankel
December 16, 2014
It was recently announced that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be suspending foreclosure-related evictions from December 17 until January 2. JPMorgan Chase has joined in, and there is reason to believe the other big banks will do the same.
Not only could this mean struggling homeowners could spend the holiday season in their own homes, but it could also mean a little extra time to find a solution to the problem.
What the lenders are doing (or not doing)
The rate of lender repossessions is about 20% lower than it was last year, but there are still nearly 30,000 homes per month being taken back by lenders.
…
I understand and still make the point, they are mostly on loans from 2005-2007.
Clearly you don’t Jingle_Fraud. 25 million excess empty and defaulted houses with another 30,000 stacked on every month isn’t something you understand…. yet.
‘The weakest markets for landlords were Canberra and Perth, where house rents fell 5 and 6.3 per cent respectively, and unit rents dropped 7.3 and 4.4 per cent over 2014. Sydney had the next highest rental inflation, around 3 per cent, with Brisbane and Melbourne posting slower growth rates.’
‘However, a trend apparent in all three of the large east coast cities was a fourth quarter decline in inner-city apartment rents, with central Sydney down 2.6 per cent, Melbourne down 2.3 per cent and Brisbane falling 1 per cent.’
‘With a large number of apartments recently being built in inner-city Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane, increased supply appears to be dampening rents.’
“Your better opportunities at the moment are probably either detached houses or units on the outskirts of the city where, relative to the price you pay, the rents are actually quite high and you can find yields of 5.5 to 6 per cent,” Mr Kusher said.’
‘He added that many investors in these areas seem to be focusing too much on capital gains. “Investors that are moving into the market at the moment aren’t considering the rental return, they’re banking on the fact that the capital growth we’re seeing at the moment will continue,” Mr Kusher observed.’
“Canberra and Perth, where house rents fell 5 and 6.3 per cent respectively, and unit rents dropped 7.3 and 4.4 per cent over 2014.”
Luckily for U.S. landlords, U.S. rents, and rental unit prices, always go up.
‘Has luxury London bubble finally burst? Stamp duty, mansion tax and global economics have led to a sharp fall in the price of town houses and luxury apartments in the capital’
‘London property has been has been a safe haven for global funds, with most recently a small surge in investment from Russians during the pre-Christmas rouble crisis.’
‘While Middle East sovereign wealth funds continue to sink their riches into the capital’s housing and infrastructure, economic woes in regions such as China and the eurozone, and the falling oil price, have fuelled concerns about the continued level of investment.’
‘While Middle East sovereign wealth funds continue to sink their riches into the capital’s housing and infrastructure, economic woes in regions such as China and the eurozone, and the falling oil price, have fuelled concerns about the continued level of investment.’
I get all the other factors; how would the falling oil price affect the London luxury bubble?
Cascading defaults.
No “oiligarchs” buying London flats….perhaps a few selling.
Churn, baby, churn.
Rich Russians buy up London property as ruble tumbles
Knightsbridge, home of luxury retailer Harrods, is popular with wealthy Russians looking to buy property
By Blathnaid Healy
UK Dec 18, 2014
LONDON — The falling value of the ruble has led to a lot of economic uncertainty in Russia. But in London, luxury real estate agents are enjoying more business as wealthy Russian oligarchs look for a safe haven to park their savings.
One high-end real estate agent said that, until recently, one in five of their clients came from Russia. After the ruble’s collapse, it’s closer to three in five.
See also: 6 standout moments from Putin’s marathon speech
“Currently, I have several Russian clients looking to spend up to £100 million [about $150 million] on a home in London,” said Rokstone’s Becky Fatemi. “The Christmas season has not stopped them looking.”
“They tend to spend £10 million to £25 million [about $15 million to $40 million] on a London home in either Belgravia, Knightsbridge or Kensington.”
As well as buying large dwellings, they’re also looking for residential and commercial investment properties, she said.
“They wouldn’t personally live south of the river. But as investment flats, they are perfect.”
…
Russians quit London luxury homes as only super-rich stay
Posted on December 18, 2014 in Briefs
By Patrick Gower, Bloomberg
Dec 18 – Wealthy Russian homebuyers are vanishing from London after driving a wave of foreign investment that lifted property prices to records. Only the oligarchs persist.
The number of Russians registered through Christie’s International Real Estate to buy homes in the city dropped by 70 percent in a year, said Giles Hannah, the broker’s senior vice president. That has led to a plunge in offers for properties priced at less than 10 million pounds ($16 million) as it becomes more difficult for all but the wealthiest to take money out of their home country.
“The banks are limiting what they can withdraw and we’re expecting further impact as sanctions kick in,” said Hannah, who advised Russian families on 180 million pounds of London property deals in the past two years. “The oligarchs are still spending. They already have banks or lawyers over here that allow them to make purchases.”
Russia is struggling to reverse a rout in the ruble with emergency measures including 7.5 percentage points of interest rate increases and more than $10 billion of ruble purchases as President Vladimir Putin confronts the country’s deepest financial crisis since 1998. A drop in Russian buyers is hitting a London luxury-property market already buffeted by economic uncertainty in the U.K. and taxes introduced by Prime Minister David Cameron’s government this month.
…
Price collapse is the path to stability.
Paris unity march ‘biggest’ rally in France’s history - Interior Ministry
Russians abandon London real estate as recession looms over Moscow
Published time: December 19, 2014 12:55
Russia’s economic crash, driven by the plunging price of oil and tough Western sanctions, is prompting well-off Russian investors to abandon London’s property market. Money from super-wealthy Russian oligarchs, however, continues to flow into Britain.
The city’s mainstream property market – dominated by homes that cost up to £5 million – has taken a beating over the past 12 months, marked by a 70 percent drop in the number of wealthy Russian homebuyers, property specialist Christie’s International Real Estate suggests.
This trend is not replicated at the higher end of the market, however, as extremely affluent oligarchs continue to purchase homes in Britain worth £20 million or more.
In a live press conference on Thursday, President Putin reassured Russians that the beleaguered ruble, which has plunged over 40 percent against the dollar in the past year, is on the path to stability.
Commenting on the manner in which Russia’s economic turmoil is affecting patterns of Russian investment in London’s property sector, Giles Hannah of Christie’s International Real Estate told the Times two definitive categories of Russian buyers exist.
“Today there are two markets for Russian buyers in London — the £20 million buyers and the mainstream market up to £5 million,” he said.
Hannah, who has offered advice to Russians regarding London property deals amounting to £180 million, suggested each market is performing differently at present.
The most expensive properties valued above £20 million are characterized by a solid market, as moneyed Russians continue to invest in the sector in an effort to store their money securely abroad in the face of economic turmoil at home, he said.
But the “sub-£5 million market” is characterized by a steep decline in Russian investment in the wake of the ruble crisis, concerns about western sanctions and increasing difficulties in channeling funds from Russia to Britain, he added.
…
Au contraire…it sounds as though “oligarchs” are the only Russian buyers still snapping up London luxury properties.
Will they at least wait for the effect of cratering demand in the next tier down in the market to play out before snapping up the most desirable luxury properties right and left, or do these guys have so much money to invest offshore that the risk of catching falling knives is no concern?
“… it remains critical that lenders are not putting consumers into unsuitable loans that could see them end up with unsustainable levels of debt,’ ASIC chairman Peter Kell said.”
Bahahahaha … lenders, huh. Lenders are putting borrowers into unsuitable loans.
The borrowers know what they can afford and what they cannot afford, or at least they should know. What the lenders do is supply the dotted lines.
All loans which buyers agree to repay are suitable.
‘Two months ago Shlomo Ben Eliahu, the director-general of the Housing Ministry, said something unexpected. He called on contenders for land zoned for 1,725 apartments in Modi’in to take into consideration the government’s housing plans, which involve building thousands more housing units in the city.’
‘Ben Eliahu, it turns out, anticipates that housing prices in Modiin will fall by 20 percent. On Wednesday the bids for the land were opened and it turns out the purchasing groups paid no attention to his suggestion, and competed fiercely over the land, bidding higher than ever for most of the 29 land tenders published by the Israel Lands Administration.’
‘Meanwhile, however, they have been trying to attract new members to the purchasing groups by lowering the price of the apartments to be built, if they win the tenders. In some cases suspicion even arises that certain groups were making false presentations.’
‘In any case the result was that as many as 30 bids were made on certain tenders. Some bidders competed over several lots of land, inevitably driving up the price. In one case, for instance, in September 2013, Zilbermintz & Sons bought a lot zoned for 48 apartments in southern Modi’in for 202,500 shekels ($51,000) per apartment; in the most recent tender it agreed to pay 302,000 per apartment.’
‘The head of a purchasing group is explicit: They don’t believe the government. That’s why they ignored Ben Eliahu’s warning. Prices in Modi’in may drop some time but certainly not based on the tenders closed on the last day of 2014, he says.’
‘It’s hard to count the red alarm lights blinking madly at the government, whose steps regarding the housing market are all wrong. All the parameters scream that it should be doing the opposite of what it is doing. Building starts shrank to 32,850 in the first nine months of 2014, a drop of 7.4 percent compared with the same period of 2013 and down even more from the peak year of 2011, during which 36,000 building starts were posted in the same nine months.’
‘Not much of the 2014 decline is because of Operation Protective Edge; it’s mostly because builders are sitting on an inventory of dwellings. That inventory has been swelling, rising to 27,700 in November – a 14-year peak.’
‘But hasn’t the government been saying there’s a shortfall of housing? Yes it has, but it’s wrong. Not only is there no shortage of dwellings; the supply grew in recent months because of the sluggish demand throughout most of 2014.’
“…202,500 shekels…”
Sounds steep!
‘Jean Alexander thought she had a buyer for her townhouse in Tinton Pines in a deal that would allow the empty nester to move into a smaller home that required less upkeep. But the deal fell through during the closing process when, she said, the buyers couldn’t get approved for a mortgage for a home in the community. Why not? “There are too many renters,” she said.’
‘Alexander is tangled in a web. Condominium and townhouse owners who want to sell have a smaller pool of candidates because of federal lending regulations that penalize their communities for having too many renters.’
‘The rule is designed to protect the value of the home, because owners who live there presumably have a bigger personal stake in taking care of the property. But it threatens to stifle the housing market’s recovery and force condo owners into a Catch-22. If they can’t sell their units, they also might rent them out instead, making the problem worse.’
‘Experts say there is a way out. But it can take a savvy borrower to navigate the process. “It’s something we’re running into fairly frequently these days,” said James Vaccaro, president and chief executive officer for Manasquan Savings Bank.’
‘Alexander, 63, purchased the three-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse in 2006 for $310,000. She upgraded the floors, appliances and heating and air conditioning system. And it has provided her a quiet place in which to live.’
‘Alexander has been divorced for more than 30 years. Her two children are grown now and live on their own. And the townhouse has become too big for her to maintain. She put it on the market in September 2013 for $295,000, hoping it would give her at least some nest egg that could help pay medical bills. She was encouraged when an offer for $285,000 came in within just a few months.’
‘But the deal ran into a snag. Alexander said the prospective buyers couldn’t get approved for a loan. The stumbling block? The Federal Housing Administration insures private mortgages. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government agencies that buy mortgages from private lenders. They all require condo communities meet a lengthy list of requirements. Among them: that at least 50 percent of their units are occupied by owners instead of renters before approving a mortgage.’
‘The other option? Rent it out. But Alexander doesn’t want to be a landlord and take on all the responsibilities that come with it. So for now, she feels stuck, hoping the real estate market will finally turn around. “I just want to be able to sell my house,” she said.’
Here is novel idea.
Wouldn’t it be great if we had a private mortgage market in America that prospective home buyers could shop around and compare?
—————————–
‘But the deal ran into a snag. Alexander said the prospective buyers couldn’t get approved for a loan. The stumbling block? The Federal Housing Administration insures private mortgages. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government agencies that buy mortgages from private lenders. They all require condo communities meet a lengthy list of requirements. Among them: that at least 50 percent of their units are occupied by owners instead of renters before approving a mortgage.’
Apparently, a condo is not a house.
OF COURSE its not a HOUSE!! Its an INVESTMENT, a retirement tool, an ATM that you can live in, a hedge against uncertainty and a bold statement affirming your status in life!! “A house”… HAH!!
‘The number of sales closed on Manhattan apartments slipped to 2,718 last year, down by nearly 18% from 2013’s total, according to a report released on Monday by Douglas Elliman Real Estate and prepared by appraisal firm Miller Samuel Inc. That drop came as the median sale price for co-ops and condominiums headed in the other direction, rising 14.6% over the year to $980,000 for all such units, and to a whopping $1.8 million for newly built ones.’
‘Pamela Liebman, chief executive of the Corcoran Group, which also released a year-end report Tuesday, attributed the decline in sales in part to a dearth of listings priced under $1 million. “There’s an unfulfilled demand,” said Ms. Liebman. “Most buyers would be happy to pounce on the new inventory but (those units are mostly priced) outside their budget.”
‘Others agreed that the market is stronger than the figures for the number of sales suggests. “Even though the number of sales is lower, it’s not so much an indicator that the market is down,” said Miller Samuel’s Johnathan Miller, who noted that sales were coming down from inflated figures racked up in 2013, when fears of an increase in capital gains stoked sales.’
‘Meanwhile, Mr. Miller attributed much of the increase in sales prices to recent closings at new luxury properties and to a relative shortage of previously owned properties on the market.’
‘Ms. Liebman said it is likely that demand for affordable housing will once again outstrip supply this year. Over the next few years, however, she predicted, developers will focus more energy on creating more units that they can sell for less than $1 million.’
‘Santa Claus did not deliver much for home buyers in Santa Cruz County. December listings at 456 were down from 533 a year ago and the fewest for that month in 18 years, according to Gary Gangnes of Real Options Realty, who tracks the numbers.’
‘Of the 325 active listings, a third are priced over $1 million, leaving 218 priced under $1 million. There were 123 sales in November, down from 133 a year ago, with the median price — the midpoint of what sold — $689,500 vs. $674,444 a year ago.’
‘The second factor, according to Bates, is that the move-up market has disappeared. “We’re back up to 2006-07 peak pricing in Aptos for the most part,” she said. “Those people who took out home equity lines are just now getting back to break-even. I can’t believe it’s been this long, seven years to get us out of this mess.”
‘Zillow reports the numbers of “underwater” homeowners who owe more than what their home is worth is down to 8 percent of mortgage-holders in Santa Cruz County as of the third quarter of 2014, compared to 4 percent in Santa Clara County and 16 percent in Monterey County.’
‘However, many mortgage-holders have relatively little equity, making it difficult to sell and buy a new home with all the associated costs, taxes, real estate agent fees, closing costs and a new down payment.’
‘Tina Habeger can attest to the strength of the Sioux City area housing market. After she and her husband, Matthew, decided to buy a house in northwest Sioux City in November, the couple put their existing home in Lawton, Iowa, on the market. “We had two showings,” Habeger said, “and it sold in five days.”
‘Such tales have become more common, say local real estate officials. “The competitiveness for a home is increasing,” said Kyle Kelly, broker/owner for Century 21 ProLink in Sioux City. “We’re commonly seeing multiple offers on homes, even many instances of homes selling for above the asking price. It’s just going to keep pushing our pricing up and continue the sellers’ market.”
‘Local cities reported record or near-record numbers of building permits last year. Local home builder Troy Griese said his crews built 21 homes in 2014, mostly in Sergeant Bluff. “It was a really good run,” Griese said. “I usually do three or four in a year.”
‘Habeger said she and her husband, a Sioux City firefighter, weren’t necessarily looking for a different home. As a pastime, she simply enjoys surfing real estate websites to look at homes for sale.’
“The house that we bought was on the market,” she recalled. “We went to an open house, and we decided to go for it. “It wasn’t anything planned at all. In fact, my husband was a little like, ‘I don’t know if I want to move again.’”
It is great to know firefighters have so much disposable income. Luckily, this couple does not need to save as the golden OT spiked pension is guaranteed by the taxpayers…
———————————-
‘Habeger said she and her husband, a Sioux City firefighter, weren’t necessarily looking for a different home. As a pastime, she simply enjoys surfing real estate websites to look at homes for sale.’
“The house that we bought was on the market,” she recalled. “We went to an open house, and we decided to go for it. “It wasn’t anything planned at all. In fact, my husband was a little like, ‘I don’t know if I want to move again.’”
‘This November report is provided by Gene Wunderlich, director of government affairs for the Southwest Riverside County Association of Realtors.’
‘It’s been a bah humbug housing year. By mid-year, as sales slumped and prices plateaued, these “experts” were changing their tune. Instead of a bubble they were worrying about what could be done to “stimulate” the housing market. By November, when we spoke with FHFA Director Mel Watts, he was talking about loosening credit requirements, relaxing regulations put in place by Dodd-Frank and getting back to 3% or even 0% down loans. They’re still talking and the market is still foundering.’
‘As I’ve noted here before, investors and first time buyers who drove our market from 2009 to 2012 have largely abandoned the current market due to escalating prices. First time buyers are at their lowest rate since 1987 and household formation is the lowest it’s been since 1995.’
‘Millenials, that generation we assumed would be entering the market in record numbers, are opting to live at home into their 30’s or 40’s. And while prices have appreciated nicely over the past three years, the increase has not been sufficient to motivate a horde of move-up buyers.’
‘Aggregate negative equity of California homeowners has remained virtually unchanged since August, leaving nearly 12% of California homeowners underwater and unable to move up. Add to that the vast numbers of homeowners who lost their homes from 2007 to 2011 who are as yet unable to re-enter the market and you have a combination that leaves us exactly where we are today – a paucity of buyers which equals a lagging housing market.’
‘ November produced our lowest sales volume since February, down 20% from October and down 5% from November 2013. Temecula volumes were off 30% and Murrieta was down 35% from the previous month and pending sales numbers didn’t portend jolly December sales either.’
‘Prices didn’t fare much better. While it appears that median price across the market was up 1% over the prior month, Canyon Lake had an anomalously high month based on a million-plus sale, which skewed the average. A weighted average of median prices actually shows a 2% month over month drop with a 2% drop from last November as well.’
‘Inventory of homes for sale has also dropped nearly 15% in recent months and homes are staying on the market a little longer again. From less than one month just a 1 1/2 years ago, we now have about a four-month supply of homes on the market.’
‘Distressed property sales remain minimal, although there may be a slight uptick in Q1 2015 as the first phase of loan modification reset.’
‘Maria Diaz and her daughter have been trying in vain to oust a stranger who has lived inside their Kingsbridge building since at least May. Their plight is a look inside the bizarre world of New York City housing law, where evicting so-called “squatters” is anything but a cake walk.’
“It’s absurd that he is allowed to live here,” said Tineo, 35, who works at the New York Botanical Garden and lives with her mom in Pelham Parkway. “Who the heck is expecting someone to go into your house and plop their feet down like that?”
‘Selassie, for his part, says he never meant any harm; he was just looking for a cheap pad. “I’m not going to be like those who go into the shelter system,” Selassie said during an interview in his dilapidated but rent-free abode. “I’m not going to sleep in a coat in the train station. For God’s sake: I’m an American citizen!”
‘ One lawyer who specializes in such matters, Adam Leitman Bailey, said the process could take a year. “He can probably celebrate next Christmas there, too,” he said of Selassie.’
‘Diaz does not have that kind of time. She said she’d have to declare bankruptcy and give up her Hell’s Kitchen restaurant, El Azteca, unless she sells the building before she loses it to a Texas bank. Selassie knows that Diaz is facing hardship, but says he’ll be willing to leave only when a judge tells him to do so.’
“Nothing lasts forever, I’m aware of that,” he mused. “I guess I’ll just have to rent.”
‘Making sure that broken windows are fixed, lawns are mowed and piles of trash are removed at vacant homes remains a lingering challenge of the housing crash 51/2 years after the end of the Great Recession.’
‘Foreclosures recorded by Fannie Mae peaked in late 2010, but an inventory of long-vacant homes with broken or boarded-up windows, peeling paint, overgrown bushes, gangly weeds, and stacks of trash persists.’
‘Many of the homes become eyesores that drag down neighborhood property values, lowering tax revenue for municipal governments. “Ultimately, it is pulling down the tax base for an entire city,” said Shanna Smith, president and CEO of the National Fair Housing Alliance.’
‘It’s one reason the housing recovery is lagging other areas of the economy. New York has the third-highest percentage of foreclosures involving mortgages delinquent for at least 12 months, even though it’s not among the top states in total foreclosures.’
‘The average bank foreclosure in New York takes 902 days, or roughly 21/2 years, to complete, according to RealtyTrac. Housing advocates say lengthy legal battles between banks and homeowners have led to a significant number of abandoned homes.’
‘But banks holding delinquent mortgages rarely tell municipal officials whether they intend to modify a mortgage, sell it to a third party, list the home for sale, put it up for auction or just walk away from the property.’
“We really wish that the banks would be a little quicker on moving them,” Peggy Rose, an associate broker with JonCar Realty in Beacon, said of vacant properties. “We get a lot of people asking about the vacant homes that are around. It’s very frustrating for us, as well as for people in the neighborhoods.”
‘Rochester alone has about 2,050 vacant homes, including 1,300 that have been vacant for more than a year, according to Gary Kirkmire, the city’s director of inspection and compliance services. He said 206 are designated for possible demolition.’
“Housing advocates say lengthy legal battles between banks and homeowners have led to a significant number of abandoned homes.”
BS. If you are fighting for your “home” you do not abandon it. Broke home debtors give up and throw the keys on the roof. Banks do not foreclose because they are trying to heal their books.
Is fear of violence a limiting factor in the ability to foreclose?
Were eviction slayings self-defense or murder?
By Bill Laitner, Detroit Free Press 7:03 a.m. EST January 3, 2015
The case of a Detroit man charged in the double fatal shooting of a husband and daughter trying to evict the man’s relatives points to the risks of evicting people after foreclosure proceedings.
(Photo: Detroit Police)
Story Highlights
Alonzo Long Jr. told police that he wasn’t the first to fire in an armed confrontation that left a man and his daughter fatally shot after they tried to evict Long’s relatives from a house in Detroit, according to testimony in 36th District Court.
The victims — Howard Franklin, 72, and his daughter Catherine Franklin, 37 — both had handguns with them when their bodies were found, police said at the time of the slayings in November.
And the defendant, Long, 22, told police he’d seen a revolver in Howard Franklin’s hand before the shooting started, and before pulling out his own handgun, a Michigan State Police detective testified Friday in a preliminary examination of dual murder charges filed against Long.
Police testified that Long told them in a 21/2-hour videotape after the shooting that he saw Howard Franklin’s gun and pulled his own gun out of his holster. The video was not shown Friday in court and Long did not speak.
Yet a Detroit police patrolman who was the first officer at the scene said he found Howard Franklin’s five-shot revolver tucked into an inside sleeve of the dead man’s flannel shirt, and that it had not been fired.
“I unloaded it myself” and none of the rounds had been fired — “it had five unspent rounds,” said Officer Scott Holbrook, referring to the elder Franklin’s .38 Special revolver. Holbrook testified that he turned the gun over to evidence technicians on Nov. 28, the day of the shooting.
Whether the Franklins fired first, as Long contends, could be crucial to deciding the dual-murder charges against him. The case is one that Long’s court-appointed attorney, Charles Longstreet, said after Friday’s hearing “is a question of self-defense.”
But the slayings have raised broad concerns as well about the potential for similar tragedies.
The house where the shooting took place had been recently purchased by the Howards in a tax foreclosure auction.
There are tens of thousands of impending tax foreclosures scheduled to occur this year in Detroit, according to the Wayne County Treasurer’s Office, and housing experts said there could be other deadly confrontations when home buyers evict tenants on their own, outside of the legal system.
…
‘President Obama bragged Thursday it was “no accident” that the housing market rebounded under his administration, saying his economic policies helped usher in a construction boom and the lowest foreclosure rate since 2006. “We ended up helping millions stay in their homes”
‘The Huffington Post described a scene in a forthcoming book by Neil Barofsky, the former Special Inspector General of TARP, where Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner delivered a string of F-bombs during a discussion about transparency. I’ve read the book, and while that’s an amusing diversion, it’s nowhere near the headline story.’
‘The important moment in the book for me comes conveniently after Barofsky recounts this FDL News item, one of my HAMP horror stories. Barofsky shows how HAMP’s faulty design led to all sorts of problems like this, with trapped borrowers, extended trial payments, no-doc modifications, and eventually unnecessary foreclosures. Barofsky mused that Treasury didn’t care about the suffering of borrowers under HAMP, and the issue came up in a meeting with the Treasury Secretary, which was also attended by Elizabeth Warren, then the head of the Congressional Oversight Panel, another TARP watchdog.’
‘Warren asked Geithner repeatedly about HAMP. After several evasions, Geithner said about the banks, “We estimate that they can handle ten million foreclosures, over time… this program will help foam the runway for them.”
Obama Housing Bubble V2.0
and he is proud of it!
Where’s the condemnation of this “privatize the profits, socialize the losses” move by Obama? The REIC loves it. If anything goes wrong, the rest of us pay for it. All just to goose the housing market a little bit more.
‘Instead of better protecting taxpayers from incurring losses through these government initiatives during a future economic downturn, the government is involved in a race to the bottom by reducing taxpayer protections to expand government credit guarantees’
Come on now, don’t be shy. Got hypocrisy?
And the double talking clown campaigned on “inflated housing prices”.
Best of all, the negative consequences most likely won’t play out until he’s long gone from office. By then, it will be someone else’s problem, and the cause will be forgotten, as most economic observers seem to have the memory of a cretin.
This is a rare occasion when I agree with you. He owns this one. So does the Fed. They’ll both own what’s coming, although when it arrives is anyone’s guess.
Prices are falling and housing demand is at 20 year lows. No need to guess.
And it wasn’t that long ago he was in Phoenix telling us amnesty would raise house prices. Sure, he’s all for the middle class, getting on the ladder. It’s part of a fundamental dishonesty the government and media perpetuate. They use and allow words to be repeated that are nothing but blatant lies. Like Yellen telling us she’s for “affordable housing.”
‘The U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) is looking into the relationship between Wall Street bank Morgan Stanley and the now-defunct New Century Financial Corp. during the run-up to the financial crisis.’
‘Court filings show Morgan Stanley pushed subprime lender New Century into making riskier mortgages, according to the New York Times. Emails and other documents filed in court also show Morgan Stanley employees knew about and even joked about some borrowers’ inability to pay on their mortgages.’
‘At the height of pre-housing bubble, New Century was the nation’s second-largest subprime mortgage originator, and Morgan Stanley was regularly the biggest buyer of the company’s subprime mortgages. “Morgan Stanley is involved in almost every strategic decision that New Century makes in securitized products,” the Times quoted an internal 2004 Morgan Stanley report as saying.’
‘U.S. Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA) today praised President Barack Obama and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julian Castro for the decision to lower fees on FHA loans by a half point, a move that will make it possible for more American families to own a home.’
“Last month I organized 17 of my Senate colleagues to urge the Administration to lower FHA premiums, and I applaud the President and Secretary Castro for doing just that,” Senator Boxer said. “This important step will save new homeowners thousands of dollars and help make the dream of home ownership a reality for more families.”
‘The letter that Senator Boxer led was also signed by Senators Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Charles E. Schumer (D-NY), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Patty Murray (D-WA), Richard Durbin (D-IL), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Edward Markey (D-MA) and Cory Booker (D-NJ).’
hmmm… a bevy of bloated bull$hitters that would do an about face if it were their money.
‘As part of a pre-State of the Union victory lap on the economy, President Obama visited Phoenix yesterday, site of one of the worst crashes during the foreclosure crisis. He came to tout his housing policies, and announce a new venture: saving middle-class homebuyers money by reducing the cost of insuring their mortgage loans.’
‘The move fits with a theory about the housing market that if only banks can be induced to lend more freely, the market will take off. Not only is this theory an incorrect read on why housing has trailed the recovery, it comes from an administration that continues to mislead about its housing policies, and has chosen the wrong path at virtually every turn.’
‘The problem is that increasing mortgage lending to below-prime borrowers got us into the housing mess in the first place, and even putting that aside, you cannot actually chalk up faltering home sales to a tight supply of mortgages. Redfin’s Real-Time Buyer Survey shows that only 2 percent of buyers said “can’t get a loan” was their biggest obstacle to purchasing. The majority cited “rising home prices” and “quality of inventory,” meaning the lack of decent homes in the buyer’s price range.’
‘That’s the issue in a nutshell: homes are too expensive, and people don’t have the money to afford them. A Fannie Mae survey similarly showed that, while consumers are more confident, they’re not confident about sinking money into homebuying. The market remains dominated by the comfortably wealthy: all-cash sales, though down from the peak, are still elevated, at 35 percent of all purchases. As I wrote in May, we have two housing markets: one for the rich and one for the rest.’
‘n a fact sheet, the White House asserts that the reduction in annual premiums will save the typical homeowner with an FHA loan $900 a year. That’s about $75 a month, on a mortgage payment that is $1,061 for the average loan. President Obama said yesterday “don’t buy something you can’t afford,” but if $75 is really the difference between making payments and foregoing a loan, you probably shouldn’t get a mortgage in the first place.
Current FHA borrowers would have to refinance to get the new premium rates. That means paying closing costs that wipe out much of the benefit, in the process handing windfall profits to the lenders. Plus, the announcement triggered increases on mortgage securities tied to FHA loans, which will likely mean higher interest rates for FHA borrowers, canceling out whatever miniscule benefit. ‘
‘Mortgage interest rates, incidentally, are at their lowest point in over a year, which has a much bigger impact on monthly payments than FHA premiums. And yet nobody’s buying. Stagnant wages and prices well above affordable levels matter much more.’
‘And that fact sheet announcing the FHA change stretches the truth considerably. It says, for example, that the administration’s efforts have “helped over 8 million borrowers, more than twice the number of foreclosure completions” since taking office in 2009. ‘
‘First of all, that undercounts foreclosures, which are estimated to be as high as 5.6 million since the crisis. Next, included in the 8 million are 4.2 million private mortgage modifications, which banks did with their clients without any involvement from the government. Some of those private mods saddled borrowers with higher monthly payments than the status quo.’
‘Not included in the statistics are re-default rates. We don’t know re-default rates for private mods, but they stand at 30 percent for the Obama administration’s signature foreclosure mitigation effort, HAMP, and are as high as 46 percent for the oldest modifications. The administration’s foreclosure relief program still has not even spent one-quarter of what was promised.’
‘Similarly, the administration touts its refinancing program, HARP, when it’s only open to borrowers current on their loans, and is therefore a stimulus and not a housing rescue program. Meanwhile, a study showed this week that HARP’s design allowed lenders to limit competition and charge borrowers above-market interest rates, creating a windfall of at least $1 billion a year for the banks.’
‘As for the White House’s claim that it created strong consumer protections and prosecuted illegal foreclosures, see basically everything I’ve written for the last four years. Here’s a quick recap:
-Treasury never sanctioned a single mortgage servicer for documented abuses of borrowers that led to unnecessary evictions.
-While the administration claimed 1 million families would see principal reductions as a result of the National Mortgage Settlement, only 83,000 got one, a 90 percent underperformance.
-Yesterday, Obama claimed $50 billion in “relief” in fraud settlements, but a large part of that involved banks taking credit for things that either had no economic value or things they routinely do in their normal course of business, including making loans.
-Some of the cash payouts were so small, foreclosure victims didn’t bother to deposit the checks.
-And lenders continue to violate federal law, deceive borrowers and kick people out of their homes using false documents, no different than before.’
Remember - there is no difference in either party when democrats are in charge…
“Last month I organized 17 of my Senate colleagues to urge the Administration to lower FHA premiums, and I applaud the President and Secretary Castro for doing just that,” Senator Boxer said. “This important step will save new homeowners thousands of dollars and help make the dream of home ownership a reality for more families.”
‘The letter that Senator Boxer led was also signed by Senators Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Charles E. Schumer (D-NY), Jeff Merkley (D-OR), Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), Barbara Mikulski (D-MD), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Patty Murray (D-WA), Richard Durbin (D-IL), Ben Cardin (D-MD), Bernie Sanders (I-VT), Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Richard Blumenthal (D-CT), Chris Murphy (D-CT), Mazie Hirono (D-HI), Edward Markey (D-MA) and Cory Booker (D-NJ).’
‘At the height of pre-housing bubble, New Century was the nation’s second-largest subprime mortgage originator, and Morgan Stanley was regularly the biggest buyer of the company’s subprime mortgages. “Morgan Stanley is involved in almost every strategic decision that New Century makes in securitized products,” the Times quoted an internal 2004 Morgan Stanley report as saying.’
People might draw the wrong conclusion from this kind of story that the private sector does not work as well as GSEs to finance mortgages, due to the tendency to take insane gambles. But this misses the roll of the terrible marriage of too-big-to-fail with CRA, which explains why Megabank, Inc as well as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac all drank the purple subprime lending kool-aide.
Looks like the Pottery Barn rule applies to Democrats, only, regarding the FHA premium reduction.
But by the time this thing blows up again, the current Democrat politicians who pushed it through will be long gone from office, and the new generation of Democrats will deny any role of their party in luring a new wave of low-income households down the path to financial ruin, just like current Democrats fail to take any responsibility for the role of CRA and affordable housing policy in the subprime lending debacle.
‘The majority cited “rising home prices” and “quality of inventory,” meaning the lack of decent homes in the buyer’s price range.’
The Fed and other agencies had other policies to stimulate speculative investment in residential hosuing and drive prices back up to unaffordable levels where they remain today in many markets.
‘The Canadian housing market is the most overvalued in the developed world, according to Deutsche Bank’s top international economist.’
Homes are 63 per cent overvalued and Canadians are falling deeper into debt because of it, according to a report from Deutsche Bank AG’s Torsten Slok. That puts Canada ahead of second-place New Zealand (56 per cent) and Belgium (53 per cent).’
‘Slok released a series of damning charts this week comparing Canada’s housing market to other countries. One chart titled ‘Canada is in serious trouble’ shows the average Canadian household debt is well above average income, and 50 per cent above current levels in the United States. That accumulated debt includes mortgages, non-mortgage loans and consumer credit.’
‘Deutsche Bank pegs Canada’s household debt at about 150 per cent of household income. However, Statistics Canada numbers released in December put Canadian household debt at 162.6 per cent, meaning Canadians owe $1.63 for every dollar of disposable income they receive.’
‘Soft Landing for Canadian Housing Market? It Sure Doesn’t Look Like It…’
‘Canada has undergone a tremendous real estate boom during the past decade and prices in certain places such as Vancouver are absolutely red hot…Moreover, there is a potentially toxic combination brewing: The Canadian property owner has never been more leveraged just as we are in the throes of a brutal bear market in the metals & mining space and witnessing a nose dive in energy prices (crude oil & natural gas). Probably one of the most exposed firms to a major downturn in the Canadian consumer and Canadian property market is Royal Bank of Canada whose stock chart is beginning to show early signs of putting in a major top.’
‘Two recent trends in the Canadian real estate market were also seen at the peak of the US real estate bubble in 2006:
1. Subprime borrowers
“A more worrisome aspect of this trend is that a sizable proportion of new uninsured mortgages are being issued to riskier borrowers,” ~ Bank of Canada report (December 2014)
2. Commercial real estate boom
‘Cracks are emerging in Calgary’s once red-hot market for commercial and residential real estate, adding to fears that rapidly sinking oil prices will trigger a broad slowdown beyond the energy sector.’
‘After years of riding high, home sales in the southern Alberta city dropped 7.5 per cent in December from a year earlier, while new listings surged 42 per cent - the first sign of a potentially weaker market in 2015, according the Calgary real estate board. At the same time, lease rates at downtown office towers are falling and some of city’s marquee buildings are grappling with an unfamiliar problem: empty space.’
‘A spike in commercial vacancies and the cooling residential housing market are symptoms of oil’s collapse in a province economists now expect will lag Ontario and British Columbia in growth as the impact of weak energy prices spreads.’
‘The oil rout has also led to an outflow from top-tier commercial office towers, pushing the overall vacancy rate in Calgary’s downtown to 8.52 per cent at the end of last year. That’s up from 7.7 per cent in the third quarter and 7.27 per cent in the same period a year ago, according to Colliers International.’
“If companies have a high debt-to-cash flow ratio, they are cutting costs everywhere, and office space is one of the first areas they would look at,” Joe Binfet, Calgary-based managing director and broker at Colliers, said in an interview.’
‘In the fourth quarter, the amount of office space added to the market in downtown Calgary outpaced what new tenants absorbed by 333,000 square feet, according to Colliers.’
‘The bulk of that, just under 197,000 square feet, was in so-called Class AA buildings. The distinction refers to buildings such as Calgary’s Bow tower and newly built Eighth Avenue Place. Vacancy rates in such buildings jumped to about 6 per cent in the period on average, from about 4.7 per cent in the third quarter, Colliers said.’
‘Industry experts are forecasting muted demand in the leasing market as energy prices languish and struggling companies are bought by well-funded rivals. Last year, Spanish oil company Repsol SA announced a $8.3-billion (U.S.) takeover bid for Calgary-based Talisman Energy Inc., kicking off what some energy analysts expect could be a wave of consolidation. Such deals typically lead to a contraction in office space use.’
‘In addition, several new towers at varying stages of construction – including the 56-storey Brookfield Place – will add as much as five million square feet of new inventory to Calgary’s downtown by 2017. That could lead to even higher vacancies, Mr. Binfet said, depending on the duration of the oil-price slump.’
‘In the office market, oil’s decline has prompted more energy companies to sublease space, as delays to long-term projects reduce workforce needs. Companies seeking to sublease space account for more than 45 per cent of current office vacancies, said Greg Kwong, executive vice-president and regional managing director at CBRE Group, Inc. in Calgary.’
‘Whitecap Resources Inc. recently moved in to 100,000 square feet of office space previously used by Pembina Pipeline Corp., according to Colliers. Northern Blizzard Resources acquired 60,000 square feet from Apache Corp.’
“It’s a sign of the times,” Mr. Kwong said. “We’ve lived through booms and busts, but no one has lost the long-term faith in our market. It’s just in the short term there’s going to be a little bit of pain, for sure.”
“Canadians owe $1.63 for every dollar of disposable income they receive.”
Canadian average household disposable income is something like $35,000. Houses are $400,000 and they sell/buy about 400,000 of them a year. Every passing year they are producing another million debt donkeys who owe $10 for every $1 of income.
‘The red hot San Antonio and Texas housing markets are expected to cool off significantly this year, but housing economist Dr. Mark Dotzour told the annual San Antonio Board of Realtors Housing Forecast that a gradual decline from unsustainable valuation increases is good for the overall economy, News Radio 1200 WOAI reports.’
‘Dotzour heads the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University. He says 2014 was such a red hot year for home sales and rising home valuations that a gradual cool down is positive. “Sales volume could fall off by as much as 30 percent and we would still have a normal supply of houses in the marketplace,” he said.’
‘Dotzour says the Texas housing market remains driven by too many people chasing too few homes in all price ranges, so it remains healthy. Dotzour says even though the falling price of oil will slow growth in the oil and gas sector, that will not be enough to stop people from moving to Texas in search of homes. “There is a lot of positive activity in Texas going on aside from the oil and gas business,” he said.’
‘The one question no one could answer — not even the featured economic mind in the room — is how falling oil prices will affect total home sales in 2015.’
“Nobody can tell you exactly how many homes are going to be sold in San Antonio because nobody can predict how people in San Antonio are going to react to the uncertainty of the oil business,” said Mark Dotzour, chief economist of the Real Estate Center of Texas A&M University, and the keynote speaker at the San Antonio Board of Realtors annual forecast breakfast Thursday morning.’
‘If it weren’t for falling oil prices, Dotzour said he would have been ready to declare a more prosperous 2015 in the existing single-family market in San Antonio. That’s mainly because of the federal government pledging to loosen the strict lending rules of the Dodd-Frank Act, which has effectively kept first-time homebuyers out of the market.’
“Yeah, it was a record year this year,” Dotzour said, “but can you imagine what it would be like if real people could buy a house like they used to?”
“We are actually trying to go back to a normal real estate market where there’s more than one house to buy,” Dotzour said. “And you don’t have to write an offer that’s $10,000 over the asking price and find out you don’t get the home … and make another offer $10,000 over and don’t that that home. And the third home you offer $15,000 over and you finally get it. That’s not a market.”
‘Many experts say the housing market is a great indicator of the economy — if that’s the case, 2015 should be a very impressive year all around. “2015 (looks) to be fantastic,” said San Antonio Board of Realtors Chair Mary Ann Jeffers.’
“Fantastic” is a word the housing industry has been aiming for since the recession plunge in 2008. As Jeffers explained, business has spiked and it should continue to stay that way, even through some recent changes. “Our biggest issue is the inventory. We’re still at 3.9 months of inventory,” Jeffers said.’
‘Plus, he said, price ranges have changed and are shooting up in some categories. “The increases have been good, especially in the higher end, like our luxury homes,” Jeffers said. “They’ve increased 26 percent over the last two years, so we’re very happy about that.”
These realtor pukes just engage the mouth. They don’t think.
‘The fall in the ringgit is unlikely to attract foreign buyers to snap up properties in Malaysia, said the Penang Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda). Its chairman Datuk Jerry Chan said foreign buyers would exercise caution rather than buy properties in Malaysia right away just because the exchange rates favoured them. He said foreign investors would wait until there was stability in the ringgit.’
‘According to Bloomberg, the ringgit fell to 3.5862, the lowest since July 2009, and has lost 2.4% this year. The fall of the currency follows the drop in oil prices, which puts pressure on the Malaysian government’s fiscal deficit target.’
Ben:
Here is the full text of the M. Lucci article from Illinois Policy Institute…..
Check the moving company stats - this came faster than in the past.
Don’t move here, you won’t like it!!!
http://www.illinoispolicy.org/illinois-had-record-mass-exodus-in-2014/
900 dallah and free collitch-all in one week !
jacrispy