A Non-Stop Parade Of Asset Price Bubbles
A report from Barron’s. “Asia last week witnessed two high-profile examples of what could be a disturbing trend in its credit markets: strategic defaults. Fund managers told reporters at the Wall Street Journal that Shenzhen-based property developer Kaisa Group Holdings appeared to have missed a deadline for making a payment on a $500 million bond despite having, on paper at least, enough cash flow to do so. In Malaysia, state-controlled development company 1Malaysia Development delayed for a second time payment on a $560 million bridge loan, renewing questions about its financial health as bankers speculated that the delays might be a way to pressure lenders into renegotiating the loan. ”
“Every company that defaults on a loan payment has its own sob story to tell and the bigger the debt, the more dramatic the tale. The truth is that there are scads of lawyers in Hong Kong’s financial district who can tell you that this has been going on for many months now: heavily indebted companies deciding to thumb their noses at creditors even though they have cash to repay.”
From NASDAQ. “Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. said late Monday it has missed $23 million in interest payments that it was due to pay last Thursday. Adding to Kaisa’s troubles, at least 15 Chinese financial companies have asked a court to freeze the firm’s assets, hurting the developer’s ability to sell off projects to raise funds and pay back lenders. Kaisa’s troubles are particularly worrying for offshore investors, who have little protection when companies on the mainland go bust. They get paid long after domestic investors and have no direct access to assets on the mainland because of capital restrictions.”
“‘If the company has defaulted on its offshore bonds and winds down, the entire credit market is interested in how this is processed, the length of time and how much of its assets foreign investors would ultimately get,’ said Jim Veneau, head of fixed income for Asia at AXA Investment Management, which has $716 billion in assets.”
From Bloomberg. “Charlene Chu, the former Fitch Ratings Ltd. analyst known for her warnings over China’s debt risks, said that the dangers are increasing as the outlook for the nation’s growth deteriorates. ‘We’ve got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast’ as the economy, Chu, a partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd., said in an interview in Hong Kong today with Bloomberg Television’s Angie Lau. ‘We’ve got deflation looming on the horizon.’”
“People with more positive views on China ‘believe that the country can grow its way out of the problem, but mathematically that’s impossible when something is twice as big as something else and growing twice as fast,’ Chu said.”
Real Estate Business. “Australia’s weakest capital city is set to continue its poor performance in 2015, according to a leading market commentator. SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said Darwin is currently the weakest capital city market, with climbing vacancy rates as a particular problem. ‘Darwin is a classic example of what I call a ‘shallow’ housing market. By that I mean there is not a lot of market volume and depth, and therefore prices can rapidly swing one way or the other. Right now, it’s swinging south, primarily due to the commodities downturn,’ he said.”
From Financial Feed on Australia. “With predictions that property price growth would slow a little more this year, CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said the housing market would undergo a dynamic shift geographically. ‘I wouldn’t say much slower but definitely slower, and we are seeing that trend across virtually everywhere apart from Adelaide and Hobart at the moment,’ he said. ‘Brisbane is relatively level, we are not seeing the same sort of slow down as what say Perth or Darwin or Canberra is or for that matter Sydney or Melbourne.’”
“Mr Lawless said the Melbourne housing market would continue to slow this year as investor demand had been dampened by low rental yields and tighter finance controls around investment lending. ‘We are already seeing with inner city apartments in Melbourne there are a relatively high proportion of resales in that market that are loss making,’ he said.”
The Japan Times. “The population keeps aging and shrinking, but new housing keeps getting built even though Japan has a glut of unused dwellings. According to statistics from the internal affairs ministry last July, vacant dwellings increased by 8.3 percent from five years earlier to 8.2 million units in 2013, growing faster than the 5.3 percent rise in total residential units to 60.6 million. That vacancy rate represents 13.5 percent of all housing units, the highest-ever ratio, and means 1 in 8 dwellings is empty.”
“The ministry statistics, compiled every five years, show this ratio has grown nonstop from 2.5 percent in 1963: Vacant units have increased faster than total units during this entire period. The Nomura Research Institute estimates that by 2023 the ratio of vacant residences will reach 21.0 percent, or 1 in 5, as the population continues to decrease. And during that time nearly 5.8 million new units will be built. The Nomura Research Institute relegates such abandoned units to the ‘other’ category. They numbered some 3.18 million, or 5.2 percent, of total residential dwellings in 2013. The institute expects the figure to rise to 5.03 million, or 7.5 percent, of a forecast 66.4 million units by 2023.”
From Fox Business. “In considering this aging bull market, some sobering facts from John P. Hussman, Ph.D., of the Hussman Funds: ‘Recall that the 2000-2002 [market] collapse wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500 in excess of Treasury bill returns, all the way back to May 1996.’ Hussman adds: ‘The 2007-2009 collapse wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500 in excess of Treasury bill returns, all the way back to June 1995. If the S&P 500 was to experience nothing but a run-of-the-mill 34% bear market decline over the coming three years, it will have underperformed Treasury bills for what would at that point be an 18-year period since 1999.’”
“Stock markets correct every three years or so in the double digits. This bull market is in its sixth year. The S&P 500 is up 202%, and the Dow has risen 171% since March 2009; the Federal Reserve’s zero bound rate policies, launched in December 2008, would have entered the first grade by now. Markets now are no more long term than the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, the markets have been in a through-the-looking-glass period when Wall Street has been obsessed about central bankers’ forward thinking on rates, and not CEOs’ forward thinking on earnings.”
“‘I still believe that the attempt by central bankers to prevent the private sector from deleveraging via a non-stop parade of asset price bubbles will end in tears,’ says Hussman. ‘But I no longer think that anyone can say when.’”
“The truth is that there are scads of lawyers in Hong Kong’s financial district who can tell you that this has been going on for many months now: heavily indebted companies deciding to thumb their noses at creditors even though they have cash to repay.”
The rule of law is worthless when it can’t be enforced or if the authorities refuse to enforce it. I hate to be so cynical but it’s all a joke at this point.
…the whole globe will be a socialist state at this rate. I guess it’s really already there. How can you possibly value anything when the whole monetary system has been gutted. 2 trillion for Whatz App? Let’s make it 4 trillion. A joke indeed!
‘Now that oil has breached the $50 a barrel level, how low might it ultimately go? A decline of another $20 a barrel seems perfectly possible. How did this happen? It was because too many people are still getting China wrong, as they see weak buying in the world’s most-important petrochemicals market as mainly the result of a supply-driven global collapse in oil prices.’
‘But the single biggest reason for the collapse in crude markets can, in fact, be summarised in one word: China.’
‘China has spent far more on stimulating its economy since 2009 than the Fed – in fact, crunching the data a little further, when you add shadow lending, it has raised total credit from $1 trillion in that year to $10 trillion in 2013.’
‘Too many petrochemicals companies have chosen to ignore what China’s new leaders were clearly saying. The biggest, boldest and most risky set of economic reforms in at least 20 years have resulted in not only the collapse in oil prices. Iron ore markets are a further indication of a monumental shift in China’s economic growth prospects.’
‘Evidence that the China story is the real story behind the collapse in crude is building.’
AlbqDan seems to have gone MIA.
You know what predicted all this commodity stuff? Copper. It was there for anyone to see.
Only visible to those with their eyes open.
Unless my math is off, 5 1/2 years ago was July 2009.
ft dot com > Markets >
Commodities
January 14, 2015 6:01 am
Copper dented by global growth worries
Josh Noble in Hong Kong
Copper prices tumbled to a five-and-half-year low in Asian trading on Wednesday, hours after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast for this year.
The price of copper for delivery in three months sank as much as 6.6 per cent to break below $5,500 a tonne before steadying at $5,536 by early afternoon. In Shanghai, copper futures tumbled more than 7 per cent.
Copper prices, unlike oil, are typically driven more by demand- than supply-related factors, making them a key barometer of global economic activity.
The sharp drop for the red metal followed news that the World Bank had cut its forecast for growth globally this year to 3 per cent from an earlier figure of 3.4 per cent. It also trimmed its 2016 estimate to 3.3 per cent from 3.5 per cent.
“It is only the US economy that is forging ahead in a global economy with so much uncertainty. We need several engines,” said Kaushik Basu, chief economist at the World Bank.
Mark Pervan, head of commodities research at ANZ, said Wednesday’s move in copper had been “fairly spooky”, adding that concerns about China were the most immediate trigger.
“Any time you’re paring back global demand conditions, it’s going to have an impact on copper,” he said of the World Bank report. “But I don’t think it would justify this kind of selling.”
…
This is very unfortunate for only he, with his greater than Chinese Government accuracy, can put these silly worries about China to rest.
Ahh I see he is replying below, I will hurry and scroll down to read his deep insight about this great nation which will be the engine that drives world economic growth for decades to come.
He can’t type while he tries to simultaneously cover his eyes and ears.
UPDATE 11-Oil near 6-year low; Brent trades at par to U.S. crude
Tue Jan 13, 2015 10:26pm GMT
* Brent, U.S. crude trade at parity at $46 first time since Oct
* Traders book at least 12 tankers to store 25 mln bbls at sea
* U.S. oil output growth in 2016 seen smallest in 5 years (Adds API data, last 3 paragraphs)
By Barani Krishnan and Samantha Sunne
NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Oil tumbled 5 percent to near six-year lows before recovering ground on Tuesday, and Brent briefly traded at par to U.S. crude for the first time in three months as some traders moved to take advantage of ample storage space in the United States.
Traders were searching to store the glut of oil, which has knocked prices down 60 percent in the last six months. So far this week, Brent has lost 7 percent and U.S. crude 5 percent.
Brent settled down 84 cents at $46.59 a barrel, after falling to $45.19, its lowest since March 2009.
…
Oil under $45/bbl by morning?
A parade of bubbles.
‘As Chinese individual investors pour back into the world’s hottest stock market, they’re leaving their fingerprints all over the place. The most telltale sign: The Chinese equivalent of penny stocks, assets that have long held an allure for amateurs, are trouncing the benchmark index.’
‘Shares in China’s CSI 300 Index that were quoted below five yuan at the end of September have since jumped an average 63 per cent. That compares with a 35 per cent gain for all index stocks and 11 percent for those priced above 50 yuan.’
‘That outsized rally reflects the growing market impact of inexperienced investors in a country where new stock accounts are opening at the fastest pace since 2007 and individuals comprise about 80 per cent of equity trading. While professional investors measure a stock’s worth relative to the company’s assets or earnings prospects, it’s the price appearing on computer screens that matters most to people like 35-year-old housewife He Mei. As she sees it, the math is simple — low price equals low risk and lots of value.’
“Expensive stocks are risky,” she said by phone from the southwestern city of Chengdu, the capital of Sichuan province. “Any drops will result in huge losses.”
‘Yuan Shuai, a security guard for Beijing’s subway system, illustrates the challenge for authorities as they try to influence investor psychology. The 26-year-old, who visited a GF Securities Co outlet in the Chinese capital’s Xicheng district to open a trading account on Dec. 31, said he only buys shares trading below 10 yuan.’
“I feel cheap stocks are less risky — big drops won’t result in huge losses for me,” Yuan said. “I don’t know too much about investing, but the stocks my friends recommended have been soaring in the past few weeks.”
This is the greatest scam opportunity of all time.
These Chinese are funny. The government tells them, invest in stocks. Stocks go up 50%. Yeaa! They were also big in gold. Jewelry, the most expensive form of gold you can buy. And they like jade, and now the big thing is rosewood furniture. It’s almost like you could sell these guys a box of air in Canada.
and now the big thing is rosewood furniture ??
I just googled it up…Crazy prices…
These people just concluded they wasted (their words) 7 trillion bucks. They are possibly the worst “investors” in history. Oh, but they are going to take over the world! I was reading yesterday about the car they are trying to sell in Australia. They put asbestos in it. And they are struggling in production because the steering wheel is on the opposite side of what they are used to.
Only repeated Chinese fire drills can get them acquainted with that wheel placement.
“Kaisa’s troubles are particularly worrying for offshore investors, who have little protection when companies on the mainland go bust.”
“offshore investors” = schmucks
“They get paid long after domestic investors …”
Bahahahahaha … that’s assuming that they will get paid anything at all.
“… and have no direct access to assets on the mainland because of capital restrictions.”
Bahahahahahahahaha … their Game, their rules.
“China’s…got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast’ as the economy… ‘We’ve got deflation looming on the horizon.’”
It’s never just one thing by itself. Biggest credit bubble. Biggest waste of resources (Ghost malls, ghost cities, ghost railroads, ghost steel mills). Biggest stockpile of commodities ever, bought high and falling through the floor (iron, coal, copper, oil, cotton). Deflation is here already Charlene.
Hey, Dan in Albuquerque, this is for you …
“We’ve got the biggest debt bubble that the world has ever seen and credit is continuing to grow twice as fast’ as the economy, Chu, a partner of Autonomous Research Asia Ltd., said in an interview in Hong Kong today with Bloomberg Television’s Angie Lau. ‘We’ve got deflation looming on the horizon.’”
“People with more positive views on China ‘believe that the country can grow its way out of the problem, but mathematically that’s impossible when something is twice as big as something else and growing twice as fast,’ Chu said.”
Read and weep.
Embrace the unpossible.
She has been a bear for a long time and she has been wrong. I see no reason why she does not continue to be wrong.
It’s not about her Dan. It’s all about falling prices bout the prices bout the prices.
Because I know you’re all about that loss,
‘Bout that loss, no profit
You’re all ’bout that loss, ’bout that loss, no profit
You’re all ’bout that loss, ’bout that loss, no profit
You’re all ’bout that loss, ’bout that loss
Comment by Albuquerquedan
2013-12-30 09:20:18
I was the one that disagreed with oil dropping to $80 but I thought gold would hold up. The level of manipulation surprised even me. However, I predict for very similar reasons that I said last year, that both oil and gold will be up. Oil very slightly from here but gold to about 1450. Assad has a 50/50 chance of leaving office this year. If it happens it will probably be a negotiated settlement. Iraq has become even more unstable this year as predicted but it has not impacted oil production sufficiently to move the needle but I think that may occur this year.
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8782
’she has been wrong. I see no reason why she does not continue to be wrong’
LOL…Gotta be cognizant about that pesky data base that Ben has Adan…
$80 oil? That’s ancient history. It’s $45/bbl now with no bottom in view.
At some future point, oil will be up. It is a finite, non-renewable resource. It is the indispensable commodity for industrial civilization. It dictates our foreign policy. And right now it costs less than bottled water.
I know this sounds a lot like “in the long run, we’re all dead.” But everything can sound like that when all markets are manipulated.
I do strongly disagree with Dan on China.
I’m sure there is a dead cat bounce in the future but oil was and still is massively overpriced, much like housing.
In the long run, there will be some yet-undiscovered new energy base, and oil will be relatively worthless.
Fusion is the energy source of the future and always will be!
My chemistry prof said oil was too valuable to just burn it.
+1, Blue.
“for a long time”
That’s really it. In the long run, reckless borrowing isn’t a miracle, it’s a disaster.
reckless borrowing isn’t a miracle, it’s a disaster ??
Reckless anything usually ends in disaster…
I admire your deep conviction in the correctness of your own beliefs.
‘Gao Min, chairman of troubled mobile phone manufacturer Dongguan Zhaoxin Communications Industrial Co, is said to have attempted suicide on January 3, an event which sent chills through China’s original-equipment manufacturer (OEM) community.’
‘Fortunately, local media say Gao’s attempt to take his own life was unsuccessful. Nevertheless, the extremity of Gao’s actions, which some have attributed to the dire financial straits reportedly facing his company, hints at weakening conditions within the country’s sprawling manufacturing sector. Indeed, Gao is said to have apologized to his employees, suppliers and creditors in his suicide note.’
‘According to reports, Zhaoxin Communications is on the hook for over 40 million yuan ($6.44 million) in overdue wages as well as debts to suppliers and loan sharks. As many know, a lack of access to bank financing has sent China’s small entrepreneurs and factory bosses scrounging for credit in the country’s shadow banking market, where borrowing costs are high and the pressure to repay can be enormous.’
‘Not helping matters for business owners has been a tidal shift in the country’s economy, one which now threatens the very advantages which once made China the world’s manufacturing center of choice.’
‘Figures from the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences show that labor remuneration has risen over 266 percent from 2003 to 2010 - compared with growth of 100 percent in India and 182 percent in Brazil over the same period.’
‘Such developments have not gone unnoticed by factory owners and multinational businesses with manufacturing operations in China. Many companies, both foreign- and Chinese-funded, are now relocating their plants and shifting jobs to Southeast Asian and South American countries where wages are lower.’
‘More specifically, for contracted mobile phone manufacturers like Zhaoxin Communications, thinning industry margins are pushing some smaller OEMs to the breaking point.’
‘Things may only get worse for manufacturers as China accelerates its industrial transformation and tilts its economy away from low value-added assembly and production.’
“Zhaoxin Communications is on the hook for over 40 million yuan ($6.44 million) in overdue wages…”
At least the wages are rising.
‘Russia’s credit rating looks set to tumble into junk for the first time in more than a decade, a move that would exclude its bonds from a couple of high-profile indexes and may set off another wave of capital outflows.’
‘The Fitch agency cut its rating on Russia to ‘BBB minus’ from ‘BBB’ on Friday, citing a significant deterioration in the country’s economic outlook due to the slump in oil prices and falling value of the rouble. That is still investment grade, the category that implies low default risk, but only one notch away from so-called junk, the grade Russia rose out of in 2004.’
‘Bigger rival Standard & Poor’s has Russia already at ‘BBB minus’, with a negative outlook, meaning the next move will likely push it into junk. It says it will review the rating in mid-January and again in April.’
“A downgrade to junk for Russia…is a foregone conclusion,” said Hung Tran, executive managing director at global industry body, the Institute of International Finance.’
‘Are you an investor who’s spent years waiting for yields to rise? There’s some good news on this front: Plummeting oil prices and disappointing prospects for global growth have created a swelling pool of bonds that yield at least four times more than benchmark securities.’
‘The only caveat is you’d better have a strong stomach for risk. There’s a reason this debt’s being sold at firesale prices in a world awash with central-bank cash, where the average rate on sovereign debt plunged to a record-low 1.5 percent on Jan. 6, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.’
‘1. Head to China. High-yield corporate debt in the region is yielding 12 percent, about the highest since 2012. Of course, you might lose all your money. Kaisa Group Holdings Ltd. failed to make an interest payment that was due on Jan. 8 to holders of its dollar-denominated notes maturing in 2020. This might be the first of many defaults by a Chinese developer.’
‘2. Take a look at securities issued by U.S. oil companies. Particularly the most-indebted ones. Speculative-grade energy bonds have lost 11.8 percent since the end of July and now yield 9.5 percent on average, up from 5.7 percent in June, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show. Oil at $46.10 a barrel threatens the business model of producers and suppliers that have sold record amounts of bonds since the 2008 credit crisis.’
‘3. Go to Greece. The Mediterranean nation that gave the world Socrates, Plato and Aristotle is now creating some of deepest angst yet about the direction of the European Union’s shared currency. If Greece quits the euro region, that would probably cause yields on other less-creditworthy nations to surge too. Greek debt yielded 10.7 percent on Jan. 7 — the highest since July 2013 — and has posted losses of 23 percent since the end of June, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.’
‘4. Bet on Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Bond investors have been dumping Russian debt as the drop in oil, the country’s top export, and international sanctions tied to the Ukraine conflict squeezed the government’s finances. The result is yields of 7 percent, up from 3.9 percent a year ago, Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data show.’
Bahahahaha … come in and visit me or go visit my broker friend and discuss over a cup of coffee (it’s free!) our “Buy The Dip” investment plan.
The sad thing is that pension funds may be doing any or all of these things, because there’s no other way to achieve sufficient returns.
pension funds may be doing any or all of these things, because there’s no other way to achieve sufficient returns ??
Or, they may be so scared they are pouring into treasuries as a safe haven…Preservation of capital is numero uno…Policy may be to deal with the underfunding another day…There is a great deal of uncertainty in the world right now…
Not pension funds. They’re neck deep in risky junk like reits and oil.
Google “pension funds” and “risky investments.” If you need an 8% annual return to be meet expected liabilities, right now you can forget about cash or Treasuries. For a time even Greek bond yields were below that level. I wish it wasn’t so, but the world’s central banks have forced everyone to gamble recklessly.
Maybe for degenerate gamblers.
“If the S&P 500 was to experience nothing but a run-of-the-mill 34% bear market decline over the coming three years, it will have underperformed Treasury bills for what would at that point be an 18-year period since 1999.”
Is he including dividends? Oh that’s right, most companies don’t pay those anymore. The profits go to executive pay, with stock buybacks balanced by stock bonuses and options, instead.
I always wonder why companies buy back their own stock when they are not paying dividends.
In a word?
Tax.
If they distribute the money via dividend, each recipient is taxed no matter what. On the flip side, they get actual money to spend after they pay their tax.
If management returns capital to shareholders via stock buybacks, there is no money to spend unless you sell your stock. While you can’t match buybacks to a certain rise in stock price, over many years, stock buybacks should result in an increase in the value of the company’s shares (whether or not this increase is greater or lesser than the buyback amount is anyone’s guess).
However, what is certain is this:
$100 in dividends end up with less than $100 for the recipient of the dividends (after tax).
$100 in stock buybacks, you end up buying $100 worth of stock. Tax is only paid when you sell the stock (assuming it has gone up in value), but that is the choice of each shareholder.
This was the excuse in the 1990s.
Then the tax on dividends was cut to equal the tax on capital gains.
Who cares if the paper price goes up if you get taxed the same when you sell?
It’s all about executive pay.
Who cares if the paper price goes up if you get taxed the same when you sell?
Taxes paid later are always better than taxes paid now.
It’s all about executive pay.
Of course that is also a big draw; driving up the stock price helps make their option packages worth more.
The answer is simple: the structure of our tax code encourages this.
Management views stock buybacks as a return of capital to shareholders; by reducing the number of floating shares, the value of the company is spread across fewer shares.
Such a return of capital causes no tax burden for shareholders. Contrast that with issuing a dividend, which returns the same amount of capital to shareholders, but is also a taxable event.
In addition, companies get punished if they cut back on a dividend pattern that shareholders have become accustomed to; there is no such backlash when a company suspends a stock buyback plan.
That would be true, if share price bore any relation to the actual value of the company.
So, today the company buys a share of Treasury Stock for $100. My ownership percentage increases! Yippee! Tomorrow, the company sells that share of Treasury stock for $90. (Let’s assume they didn’t borrow money for the purchase.)
The only way this works is if the company has some inside information that the stock price will rise (which is inherently illegal.)
Last week I got on the 2 line in Crooklyn. At the Wall St stop a bunch of guys with no shirts got on the train. Strange for this time of year.
‘Struggling Chinese developer Kaisa Group plunged further into crisis on Monday as several of its bank accounts were frozen and a number of creditors sought immediate repayment of debts. At least 28 court filings were made against Kaisa and its subsidiaries between Jan. 6 and Jan. 9 in Shenzhen, where Kaisa has most of its assets, according to records in the city’s Intermediate People’s Court, involving 17 financial institutions.’
‘The company said it was talking to several candidates about appointing a financial adviser. Its chief financial officer resigned last month. “The combination of the regulatory lockdown together with the resignations of senior officers and the recent bank default, will in our view, create enormous uncertainty around the firm’s operations both in Shenzhen and other markets,” independent research firm Lucror Analytics said in a report.’
‘Chinese rebar futures fell for the fourth straight session on Monday as demand slowed in the world’s top producer, further dragging down the steelmaking raw material that has been weighed down by growing supply.’
‘Slowing construction activities in northern China due to cold temperature have cut demand for steel products, while persistently tight liquidity in the new year has constrained traders’ restocking.’
“Traders are reluctant to restock as steel demand is weakening and their cash flow remains extremely tight around this time, when banks urge loan repayments but keep cutting new credit lines,” said Xia Junyan, an analyst with Everbright Futures in Shanghai.’
‘The most active rebar futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange tumbled 2.4 percent to close at 2,502 yuan ($404) a tonne, posting the biggest daily fall since Sept. 22, 2014.’
‘Iron ore inventories have fallen below 100 million tonnes since mid-December, reaching 97.51 million tonnes last week, according to data from industry consultancy Umetal. “Iron ore inventories have eased from the peak levels, but this has been offset by falling steel prices and miners’ ongoing expansion plans,” Xia added.’
‘A total of 680 fugitives suspected of economic crimes have been repatriated to China as a result of the transnational “Fox Hunt” operation launched in July, the Ministry of Public Security said.’
‘Of those seized, 117 had been at large for over a decade and one had been on the run for 22 years, assistant public security minister Meng Qingfeng told a press conference.’
‘Of the 680 suspects, 208 were involved in economic crimes involving over 10 million yuan ($1.6 million), 74 of which were involved in cases involving over 100 million yuan.’
‘The fugitives had been hiding in 69 countries and regions, according to the ministry. Chinese police filed coordinated investigation applications in over 90 countries and regions, and more than 70 Chinese police teams were sent overseas to support the operation.’
‘The six month Fox Hunt 2014 operation, from July to Dec 31, aimed to to “block the last route of retreat” for corrupt officials in line with the ongoing crackdown on abuse of power. “As long as people remain at large, the hunt will go on,” Meng said, stressing there was “no safe haven” for suspects.’
“Overall, 390 turned themselves in…”
Wonder what it takes to convince someone to do that.
Probably not-so-veiled threats against family members still in-country.
Meanwhile on the cratering housing scene;
“Falling Rents in Washington D.C.”
http://bigthink.com/ideafeed/falling-rents-in-dc-a-product-of-satiated-demand
A sea of excess empty houses, a tsunami of crude oil and falling prices. All positive news.
“The World Is Awash In Oil”
http://blog.yardeni.com/2014/11/the-world-is-awash-in-oil-excerpt.html
‘Alberta is “most likely” headed for a recession in 2015, if the price of oil continues its steady decline, says the head of the Conference Board of Canada. Board chief economist Glen Hodgson said Monday, although key economic indicators such as employment and new housing starts have remained steady, Alberta will be headed for a recession even if oil prices rebound to about $65 a barrel.’
“The most likely outcome we think for Alberta this year is a recession,” Hodgson told CTV Calgary. “That’s not good for Alberta, (and) it’s also not great for the national economy. It means job loss (and) lower levels of investment across the country.”
‘Alberta Finance Minister Robin Campbell, however, disputes claims that the province is headed for a recession. Campbell told CTV that, “while growth is going to be a down a bit in Alberta, no one is talking about a recession right now.”
he’ll keep his job and get a life pension-
only gov workers survive
Tell that to Greek government workers who will soon be losing their pensions.
You really shouldn’t base your lifestyle on commodity prices. Silly donk.
How DID we ever survive all those years when oil was trading at ten to twenty bucks a barrel??
This oil thing….
The cost of production being a tiny fraction of the retail price, why wouldn’t prices crater in a normal environment? Housing is no different. Production costs for a typical house plan is $55/sqft(lot, labor, materials and profit) or roughly $120k.
Now ask yourself why a dated, 40 year old house would be priced any more than two-thirds the cost of a new structure?
No one will want to pay for a 2600 ft2 house without the belief it will make them money.
Because that 40 year old house might be sitting in a desirable neighborhood with good schools or whatever. Since there are many people who want to live in a good location, they will bid up the price. It’s not as simple as how much it costs to build the structure. I’m not saying that real estate isn’t overpriced today, I’m simply saying that there is more the the price than what it costs to build it.
Nonsense.
“Location” is just another realtor marketing technique to scam the public.
Desirability cannot explain that the average of all our housing is overpriced, because at least half of it is in a less than average desirable spot.
Here in Santa Rosa, Ca, the sewer and water fees for a run from a small lot $17,000 to large lot $,35,000
the land runs about ”$55,000 for a lot,
Construction costs about 10-200 a sq ft
Median income about $80,000
Median price about $450,000
all more or less.
No way in hell to build houses for low income houses by private contractors.
And running out of water!
Santa Rosa, CA Income and Salaries. The income per capita is $29,769, which includes all adults and children. The median household income is $60,525.
8:1
Too expensive. Not that special a place, Santa Rosa.
$55/sqft in Santa Rose too. I don’t know how to help you.
Has anyone noticed that contractors are eating everyones lunch? Take a look at new v. used house prices.
Mark Hulbert
Opinion: The stock market is overvalued any way you look at it
Published: Jan 13, 2015 8:25 a.m. ET
Six time-tested indicators dating to the year 1900 come to the same conclusion
By Mark Hulbert
Columnist
CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — No matter how you slice it, the stock market is overvalued.
In fact, based on six well-known and time-tested indicators, equities are more overvalued today than they’ve been between 69% and 89% of the past century’s bull-market tops.
To be sure, overvaluation doesn’t immediately doom a market. A year ago, the stock market was almost as overvalued as it is now, and it nevertheless turned in a decent year.
But valuation indicators’ inability to forecast the market’s short-term direction doesn’t justify ignoring them altogether. Their longer-term forecasting record is impressive, which means that — sooner or later — the market will succumb to their gravitational force.
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Monterey County, CA List Prices Plunge 19% YoY As Defaults Ramp Up
http://www.zillow.com/monterey-county-ca/home-values/
Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (VGSIX)
Up 30% last year not too shabby. Because of the way this fund is taxed I like it in a IRA account.
With the way reits are neck deep in borrowed money and falling residential and commercial prices, it’s a sector you want to be dumping and dumping quickly.
That’s where my real estate assets allocation is parked.
Here?
http://img.deseretnews.com/images/article/mcontentimage/1211787/1211787.jpg
Oh dear, KB Home let out a stinker.
Standard Pacific CEO sells shares:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/878560/000087856015000010/xslF345X01/edgardoc.xml
If I owed a construction company that can’t do anything more than slap together shacks, I’d be looking to liquidate too. Especially if I were doing business in CA like SPF.
I’ve seen the question asked here from time to time but it’s worth asking again.
“Do you really believe wages are going to triple to meet grossly inflated prices?”
The answer of course is a resounding NO. Grossly inflated prices will continue to fall to meet wages. And remember…. Falling prices of all items is your wallets best friend and positively bullish and good for the economy.
AHEM.
HH wages have been steadily falling. Cascading layoffs in the bubble sectors are going to accelerate that.
That’s why it’s dumb to buy ANY hard assets right now. Everything is overpriced.
The truth is that there are scads of lawyers in Hong Kong’s financial district who can tell you that this has been going on for many months now: heavily indebted companies deciding to thumb their noses at creditors even though they have cash to repay.”
Born and bred in the good ‘ol US of A. We exported moral hazard.
Hmm this is disappointing, not as much ironclad prognostication from Albuquerquedan as I was hoping for in this thread. Could it be that doubt about his position on China is creeping in?
I hope not, I want to believe… help me believe.
Dan and a few other degenerate gamblers, price fixers and communists around here…. and many more to come.
http://goo.gl/WBZGF1