Bits Bucket for January 14, 2015
Post off-topic ideas, links, and Craigslist finds here.
The Housing Bubble
Examining the home price boom and its effect on owners, lenders, regulators, realtors and the economy as a whole.
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Name:Ben Jones
Location:Northern Arizona, United States
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Seems as though a pall of gloom has suddenly enshrouded Wall Street.
Marketwatch dot com
Banks report as investors face ‘the worst time ever’ to buy stocks
By Shawn Langlois
Published: Jan 14, 2015 7:52 a.m. ET
Critical intelligence before the U.S. market opens
…
“Lower collateral values and weaker renters may hurt some of the $7.1 billion of rental-property bonds sold since a market for the debt was started in 2013, even as other areas of the nation and mortgage bonds more broadly benefit from lower consumer costs, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Dallas home prices have jumped 24 percent from a 2011 low, according to an S&P/Case-Shiller index.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/finding-losers-from-oil-leads-jpmorgan-to-texas-rental-housing-texas-is-a-state-of-mind/
Got rental bonds? The bs just gets crazier every year.
Thank God Etsy is working on an IPO so there will be millions to be made.
Do you think warren buffet will make the rounds on tv this week? Somebody from the ppt is gonna be wheeled out.
These earnings are so shady they disguise the fact that a lot of these companies haven’t grown in years. A lot of hype.
Starting price, 3 trillion. ‘Cuz it’s worth it!!
“…weaker renters…”
So long as rents always go up, why does this matter?
KB Homes was down 16 percent yesterday, reporting that their results suck. But since when do fundamentals matter?
We need to load some millenials up with some first time home buyer loans.
I wonder how many people have 6000 for a 3% down on a 200k home?
Can you borrow that money or can it be gifted?
One wonders how many parents have the $6,000 to gift.
Most of these boomer free $hitters don’t have two dimes to rub together. The only difference between them and Chokie the bum is a pay check.
“Can you borrow that money or can it be gifted?”
You may gift your children $14k in tax year 2014, IIRC.
Wall street is waiting to hand the baton off to you. What are you waiting for?
In order for the game to continue more people need to be recruited or someone needs to take a haircut eventually.
Reality is setting in. The implosion of Housing Bubble II and the Fed’s other asset bubbles is going to be epic. Got popcorn?
cratercorn.
Me and my cash are ready to pick up some AWESOME deals. Never buy something until the seller is prepared to give it away.
The key is, guessing at the bottom and jumping back in to make more $$$.
I think that is the plan for those of us with tons of cash.
You gotta have the cash first Lolacado.
did you miss the second line? Buy low, sell really high!!
After many mornings waking up from a black out in an alley with your pants around you’re ankles, you’ve got nothing left to sell Lolacado.
sell really high!!
Lola is always really high when he/she is selling what he is selling. Of course, you would have to be really high to buy what he is selling too.
Who’d've thunk a broke populace would hardly spend anything on Christmas?
Economic Report
U.S. retail sales slump in December
Published: Jan 14, 2015 10:46 a.m. ET
Cheaper gas spurs 0.9% decline, but most retailers fare poorly
Shoppers flocked to stores during December, but they were frugal spenders.
By Jeffry Bartash
Reporter
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — Retail sales in the U.S. sank in December in large part because of cheaper gasoline, but most stores posted weak results during the busiest month of the shopping season, government data show.
The surprisingly large decline in retail sales triggered a selloff in U.S. stocks, while foreign markets took a darker tone on fresh worries that lower oil prices aren’t helping the American economy as much as predicted.
Sales at retailers dropped a seasonally adjusted 0.9% last month to mark the biggest pullback in nearly a year, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists polled by MarketWatch were expecting a smaller 0.2% decline.
…
Cratering demand.
Want to crater demand more? Lock your prices.
What the heck does a “Clutter Nation” buy when it has everything it can barely store in it’s Secure Storage?
I bet I can get someone to give me their flat screen.
Treasury Bond Yield Drops to Record Low Amid Fear of Global Deflation
By Daniel Kruger Jan 14, 2015 10:11 AM PT
Treasury 30-year bonds yields are tumbling to record lows as the collapse in oil and commodity prices smothers inflation and hampers global economic growth.
Global sovereign yields fell to records in the U.K., France, Canada and Japan as a report showed retail sales in the U.S. slumped in December by the most in almost a year, reflecting a broad-based retreat that may prompt economists to cut growth forecasts. The slide prompted traders to push back expectations for the timing of the first Federal Reserve interest-rate increase into December less than a month after speculating that rates could rise as soon as April.
“The Fed’s between a rock and a couple of hard places.” said Daniel Fuss, Boston-based vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., who helps manage the $24.5 billion Loomis Sayles Bond Fund and has been in the securities business since 1950. “The savings flows go toward safety and return, and the U.S. Treasury market has both.”
Even at the record low yield of 2.39 percent reached today, 30-year Treasuries are attractive to global investors looking at negative returns on the sovereign debt of nations including German with the European Central Bank expected to add to its bond-buying program as policy makers seek to avert deflation.
The Treasury sold $13 billion of 30-year bonds at an auction-record-low yield of 2.430 percent.
Thirty-year bond yields dropped seven basis points, or 0.07 percentage point, to 2.43 percent as of 1:11 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The momentum that caused the previous record low of 2.44 percent set on July 26, 2012, to be eclipsed is being driven by the following factors.
…
I bought bonds partly based on your comments last summer about it being worse than the Bond market expected.
you were right
Score!
“There is also a reason why Wall Street operates a parallel universe of ex-items accounting. Namely, sooner or later the hedge funds and fast money traders need mullets and muppets on which to unload the shares they have ridden for a quick rip during earnings season when company results, like Alcoa’s last night, came in “better than expected”. And what better way to reel in the mullets and muppets than to propound that these stocks are “cheap”, their PE multiples are low, and the water is warm!”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/its-earnings-season-so-here-come-the-crooks-led-by-alcoa/
I think I’m going to put David Stockman’s site on my favorites list.
Bitcoin plummeting. LMAO. Next time buy precious metals, bagholders.
http://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-drop-2015-1
To make money you need to recruit more buyers. Somebody has to pay for the gains of others. If you cant recruit new money then there has to be haircuts eventually.
Haircuts are good now and then. Keeps people from gambling in the casino too much.
“To make money you need to recruit more buyers.”
The algorithm of Bitcoin does not work that way. The amount of bitcoin mined is a controlled amount based on the algorithm. All 21 million bitcoins will be mined by the year 2140.
The price drop is not related to bitcoins in circulation because they have not markedly increased or decreased.
That’s called Urban Legend Bill. There is no authority behind these claims. Not that our “authorities” are truthful.
I think azdude meant that in order to make a profit with Bitcoin (its value vs. fiats goes up) you need a growing pool of buyers willing to trade Mr. Banker’s fiats for Bitcoins.
Things imagined tend to vanish without a trace.
alcoa had earnings of 21 cents / share in 2014.
PE ratio = 15/.21 =71
is that a cheap stock? Reminds me of the tech days.
alcoa
Interesting. Oracle’s P/E is is 15.7
Crypto currency is going to be a strong competing currency in the future. It’s not going away. The block chain is too useful for decentralizing everything in life and our currencies will too be decentralized.
As for precious metals, this is another good year to buy. I expect interest rates to stay flat all year, which means gold will stay put around $1200. Gold tends to go up when the federal funds rate goes up.
http://www.sunshineprofits.com/gold-silver/articles/gold-and-federal-funds-rate/
As for precious metals, this is another good year to buy.
Yes—but next year will likely be even better.
‘Some people are beginning to worry that bitcoin is stuck in a self-reinforcing negative price cycle in which bitcoin hoarders are being forced to sell bitcoin to meet their dollar-based costs, and the excess supply of bitcoin cheapens its price — which makes dollar costs and debts even more “expensive” for bitcoin holders.’
Sounds to me like the tail end of a bubble releasing gas.
And what are these ‘dollars’ of which the writer speaks (’dollar-based costs’)?
Sh!tcoin.
http://goo.gl/4DDSWd
Scripting a narrative
This is the top story on the Drudge Report website right now
http://www.wjla.com/articles/2015/01/jewish-owned-d-c-business-targeted-by-self-described-isis-militants-110539.html
Hey American taxpayers, time to open your wallets, because the only solution to this is another trillion dollar war
Can I has Rapture plz?
No.
We need to ban guns, spy more on our citizens and try harder to appease the muslims…
Hope and change…
You’re going to get all of the above *AND* another trillion dollar war, whether you like it or not
Now sit down, shut up, and pay your taxes
P.S. and be sure to say thank you to all of the brave men and women of the Israeli Defense Forces who put their “boots on the ground” alongside America in the Iraq, Afghanistan, and second Iraq wars, we couldn’t have done it without you
And if we just call it work place violence instead of Islamic terrorism, it will go away.
LOL. But under the Bush Family War Finance Plan, the taxpayers don’t open their wallets. They get another tax cut while the war is put on the U.S. Visa Card.
Everything government touches it destroys or turns into a scam.
Housing
Health Care
Higher Education
Etc.
———————-
Solar Subsidies Scam Taxpayers And Homeowners
Investors.com | January 134, 2015 | Stephen Moore & Joel Griffith
The Solar Energy Industries Association likes to tout the industry’s “amazing success” — but it’s holding a “Shout Out For Solar” social media event Friday as it sees an “uncertain future.”
That’s because its continued success depends on a cascade of government subsidies, including a 30% federal investment credit that expires at the end of 2016.
Guess what? Taxpayers are paying for it — and through the metaphorical roof.
Thanks to the slew of solar industry subsidies, homeowners can effectively contract with solar leasing firms that will install those panels for free. But they often get gouged later, as do taxpayers in one of the great corporate welfare scams of modern times.
Congress is investigating if the industry is ensnaring homeowners in green energy “teaser” loans.
Some leasing companies “sold large numbers of subprime mortgages to unsuspecting homeowners in the runup to the subprime mortgage crisis,” the investigators have found.
California and Louisiana homeowners have filed class-action lawsuits vs. solar leasing companies alleging fraudulent marketing campaigns that don’t warn customers of true costs and risks.
Caveat emptor!
How do you translate “Buyer be Screwed”?
Edumacation!!! Edumacate yourself!!!
“Everything government touches it destroys or turns into a scam.”
Only when the people who run the government treat it as a means to funnel taxpayer money to their business buddies. Nobody scams more money from the government than big business.
Only when the people who run the government treat it as a means to funnel taxpayer money to their business buddies
And when does that not happen?
And remember -
Only bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes can save us and solve all our problems…
and it’s still cheaper than the wars and oil tax breaks, and engineering and pennies on the dollar tax breaks we give oil companies.
From China Daily things are looking up in China, particularly if you want to be Mr. Banker:
A survey by global recruitment specialist Hudson has revealed rising optimism in the Chinese jobs market.
The study showed 59.5 percent of 1,780 companies polled said they will increase permanent staff numbers in the first six months of the year, a 12.1 percent rise on last year at this time.
Around 90 percent of the respondents held senior human resources positions in leading multinational companies, with the rest from well-known Chinese private firms.
Among the monitored sectors, professional services showed the strongest hiring demand, with 71.4 percent of the companies looking to increase their headcounts in the first half of 2015, a 31.8 percent rise on 2014.
Bi Lin, joint general manager of Hudson Shanghai, said the findings were largely in line with the country’s shift toward a service-based economy.
She said that professionals “who can demonstrate the ability to drive business development and capitalize on booming markets” would be the most in demand.
Within the professional services sector, law firms, business consultancies, accounting firms, and medical, educational organizations are showing the strongest demand for new talent.
The trend is especially strong among privately owned companies as they continue to win a great share of projects from public sector organizations, said Bi.
After fluctuating fortunes over the past few years, demand by banking and financial services companies has grown since the start of the year, with 69.1 percent of the surveyed employers saying they will increase their headcounts in the first six months of the year.
Translation: We’re big in trouble over here, but we will make happy talk every day. Manufacturing and sales are flushed down the crapper daily and our piles of commodities are ruining us. Our only hope is more massive government stimulus, so we depend on. Our government is knowing and now they tell us to sell our commodities overoceans to raise some currencies.
(Reuters)
Updated: 2015-01-14 09:21
Counter:
China’s iron ore imports hit a fresh record in 2014, jumping 13.8 percent to 932.5 million tonnes, data showed on Tuesday, as lower-cost shipments from global miners flooded into the world’s top consumer.
In December, iron ore shipments jumped 29 percent from the previous month to a record 86.85 million tonnes, according to data from the General Administration of Customs, as steel mills replenished stockpiles in the winter season.
With big iron ore miners sticking to their expansion plans, increasing supplies have slashed prices for the steel making raw material at a time when easing economic growth in China is leading to slower demand growth for commodities.
Tumbling prices have forced some high-cost Chinese miners to shut down and encouraged Chinese steel mills to increase imports, analysts say, likely leading to further rises in imports.
“Lower-cost iron ore resources overseas have led to surging imports and squeezed higher-cost domestic iron ore miners to shut down, and this trend will continue this year,” said Li Wenjing, an analyst with Industrial Futures in Shanghai.
Benchmark 62 percent grade iron ore for immediate delivery to China’s Tianjin port .IO62-CNI=SI fell 47 percent last year to below $70 a tonne, the lowest level since June, 2009, according to The Steel Index.
Meanwhile, Chinese steel exports surged 50.5 percent in 2014 from a year earlier to 93.78 million tonnes. Shipments hit a fresh record of 10.17 million tonnes in December, up 5 percent from the previous month, data showed.
Looks like they are trading their stash of U.S. dollars for commodities at fire sale prices.
“After fluctuating fortunes over the past few years, demand by banking and financial services companies has grown since the start of the year, with 69.1 percent of the surveyed employers saying they will increase their headcounts in the first six months of the year.”
Chinese lenders are going to need a lot of workers to do the research that will tell them that there are hundreds of billions of dollars of loans that will never be recovered.
Trillions.
My mistake. Thanks for catching that.
http://blogs.barrons.com/asiastocks/2015/01/13/saudi-will-win-the-price-war-oil-to-rebound-50-by-december-nomura/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
Brilliant!
$50 by December, check.
$45 in January, check.
They just don’t know what year it is.
$30 by April?
Link will post soon:
By Shuli Ren
Nomura Securities is already calling the bottom and “the birth of a new oil bull market.” The bank forecasts that Brent crude will bottom at an average of $45 in Q1, recover to $55 in Q2, and go back to the long-term average of $80 by the end of this year.
The oil market is in real trouble if the bear is driven by weak demand, but fortunately, this one is just a temporary price war started by Saudi Arabia.
The force is still strong. “It is not demand weakness that triggered the oil price collapse. Global oil consumption is at a record high and there is only about 3% of spare global capacity as the era of easy oil is long gone,” according to analysts Gordon Kwan and Bob Chen. The recent oil price collapse was “deliberately triggered by Saudi Arabia” to slow down development in U.S. shale oil, Canadian oil sands and deep-water and Arctic drilling.
Just like in 1986, Saudi Arabia will win this price war again, because the Middle East has the lowest cost producers. The Middle East producers incur only $15-40 per barrel in costs when they drill, whereas “half of the world’s projects would not be economically attractive if oil prices remain below $50 per barrel.” Brent crude stays below $50 this week, recently trading at $47.87.
Already, we are seeing signs that Saudi Arabia is winning – U.S. oil producers are cutting back.
With oil prices and demand cratering and a global supply glut, why wouldn’t they cut domestic production?
On the contrary—with fixed costs and debt service denominated in dollars, they will try to pump MORE from their existing investment to make up for falling prices.
Good point. Hey… you’re alright.
Are you being paid to be this stupid?
Sorry, that was rude. My apologies, I forgot my manners.
How much money do you have at stake on this crazy notion?
Hardly a crazy notion. When I first started to say it, it was a lonely opinion. But I stated that we would see a crash in the rig count followed closely by a fall in production. Basic concept; since the decline rate of shale oil fields is 10 to 20 times the decline in convention fields, this surplus will work itself off at warp speed, not like the previous oil corrections. It is happening just as I predicted and now you are seeing major investment firms saying the say thing.
The guys at the Motley Fool often say that you automatically become a better investor if you double your time horizon. They often talk about going from 5 years to 10 years.
In this case, people are so hung up on the next 6 months that they can’t look ahead over the next 3 years.
I don’t know if I’m as bullish as Nomura in terms of pace of recovery, but I’d be shocked if we are sub $50 oil 2 years from today.
Falling prices to their natural market level always elicits denial.
You need to be more data-driven.
If you are right, that oil’s natural level is under $50 per barrel, then we will NOT see supply fall over the next 12 months. Time will tell.
What was absent 10 years ago and in the decade before, where oil was sideways at $30 that has been a factor in the last ten years? I can think of several big things. If those things die off, then we can think about 35 years as being the longer horizon, and for a mania like this, maybe 70 years.
I would like it if you guys were predicting a dead black cat bounce for sometime after summer, not earlier. Cruising season is just a few months away.
World oil demand is currently about 95 million barrels per day. 10 years ago was closer to 80 million barrels per day. In 1980, it was 63 million barrels per day. Over the last 35 years, demand has increased by about 900k barrels per day per year. It’s expected to rise by 900k mbpd in 2015.
That marginal production of that last 15 mbpd is relatively expensive (ie. the cheapest places to drill have been drilled). As such, if prices aren’t high enough, the additional supply isn’t added, and those clamoring for the 95 mbpd bid the price up until either a) they don’t want to pay more (find an alternative) or b) until supply is added to meet the demand at higher prices.
They were paying well over $100 per barrel…they didn’t like it, but they were paying.
The data seems clear…at $45 per barrel, rig count is going down, layoffs are occurring, there is less activity trying to pull more oil out of the ground.
The combination of less drilling, high decline rates for fracked wells, and increasing global demand, the world will eventually sop up the glut of oil, and we will get back to a point where oil is priced based on the marginal cost to produce the next barrel, not based on a near-term oversupply.
Simple analogy. If there is demand for 100 candy bars per day, and the first 90 can be produced for $1 per bar, and the 90th-100th costs $2 per bar. AND people have shown that they are more than willing to pay $2.50 per bar (because they LOVE chocolate), where will the price settle?
In theory, it should be a pretty small profit margin over $2 (that last producer needs to make some profit, or else they won’t produce the candy bar).
Now, what happens if people find a way to produce candy for $1.60 per bar (the equivalent of fracking)? Lots of people will enter the market and start producing candy bars. Some might even buy the raw materials at a premium (land prices in the Bakken rise) with the belief that they can continue to sell candy bars for $2, and if paying more for the raw materials drives their cost up to $1.80, who cares?
Well, after enough people have entered the market, and produced the candy, we now have too much candy–we’re making 105 candy bars per day for a while, and guess what? Prices fall. Like there is no bottom in sight.
The new candy producers cut production. The old candy producers do not–it takes a while to work off the glut because of this. The candy that they already made gets eaten. Prices fall from $1.80 to $1.60, to $1.40 to $1.25. Panic. Prognostications of forever lower prices of candy abound.
Only while the glut of candy is worked off, demand has increased to 102 candy bars (because, candy prices dropped, let’s eat more!), and while further refinements in the new production method has driven cost to $1.50, it isn’t economical to make more candy at $1.25.
That is where we are right now.
What happens next?
If there is a way to increase global oil production in the aggregate at $45 per barrel, then people betting on $80 oil will be waiting a while.
If there is not a way to increase global production profitably at $45 per barrel for the marginal barrel (which is consistent with everything I read), then eventually the price of oil will go back up.
The question is, when is “eventually”? Nomura seems to think within a year. My gut tells me it will be more time than Nomura.
The interesting bits haven’t been talked about yet widely. For example, if you are a land owner, and you got prices for your land based on $85 oil in 2012 and 2013, and now people are only willing to pay for the land based on $60 oil, do you accept that as fact, and sell? Or do you wait a while, with the hope that prices rise to a level that justifies paying more for your land again?
If you leveraged your operation in some way, after you default, will there be assets to buy on the cheap if you have cash to pay? If so, will production start back up sooner than expected (thus making the spring back in overall prices less pronounced)? My bet is yes.
Building square mile after square mile of crude tank farms to store oil isn’t demand Rental_Fraud.
You can sure say a lot without answering the question.
“But I stated that we would see a crash in the rig count followed closely by a fall in production.”
IIRC you called the rig count decline after it had already started, like when it had been announced already.
Started perhaps, but it greatly accelerated after I said it would. We lost more rigs last week than we lost over months before I made the call that rigs working would plunge. Finally, this was after stories were posted on this blog, that rigs would not be falling due to futures being sold etc. and your claims that oil companies could keep on drilling due to reduced drilling costs caused by the slump and increased efficiencies.
The bottom line is, you were wrong, shale oil companies have an average cost of $68 a barrel measured by WTI. That is why the rig count is dropping like a stone. The irony is the only hope to avoid $80 by January of next year is a rapid recovery above $68 a barrel, because that is the only way to maintain shale oil production.
Wrong.
Shale operators are profitable at levels far below $40/bbl.
“What was absent 10 years ago and in the decade before, where oil was sideways at $30 that has been a factor in the last ten years?”
I’ll be more concise.
A significant amount of the marginal increase in production coming from the fracking of wells (where production from the well falls by 90% after 2 years).
http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-12-01/can-the-us-fracking-boom-survive-with-oil-65-per-barrel
“Hamm boasted that Continental could operate at $50 a barrel.”
He didn’t say $40, or $30. And $50 was considered a boast.
OK RW, I’ll be more specific. What was absent n(or only embryonic) a decade ago that required meteoric increases in oil supply.
“you were wrong, shale oil companies have an average cost of $68 a barrel measured by WTI”
I’m not wrong yet. I said production costs would drop as energy costs dropped. Big difference between development and production, but let’s not get too clear. Maybe this is a double post, shortened. It’s odd, you telling people they are wrong.
Let’s just click on that $68 of yours and see what the scammers you shill for are saying in a few months.
before I made the call that rigs working would plunge.
Isn’t that a shockingly obvious prediction to make, though? Milk the existing investment while curtailing new investment—no one could have seen it coming!!
“It’s odd, you telling people they are wrong.”
Think Romney + Rasmussen poll results…
Facts are stubborn things, one interesting tidbit is the amount of California production that is at risk. Even though it is coming from older oil fields the enhanced oil recovery methods needed to produce it means California’s cost of production is high enough to cause producing wells to be shut down despite ignoring such costs:
http://www.rigzone.com/news/oil_gas/a/136732/Kemp_Breakeven_And_ShutIn_Prices_For_Oil_Wells
‘Facts are stubborn things’
Indeed they are.
“Oil Pares Gains After Surprise Supply Increase”
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-pares-gains-after-surprise-supply-increase-2015-01-14
Remember…. Falling prices of all items is positively bullish, good for the economy and your wallets best friend.
such costs = sunk costs
From the Wall Street Journal:
“Unlike shale oil, which requires constant drilling of new wells to maintain output levels, once an oil-sands site is developed it will produce tens or hundreds of thousands of barrels a day, steadily, for up to three decades. On Monday, major producer Canadian Natural became the latest to underscore the resilience of oil-sands growth. The company said lower oil prices will force it to trim investment on new projects and curtail its growth forecast—but it still expects overall output to grow about 7% over 2014 levels, and it vowed to keep spending on expanding output at its biggest oil-sands mine over the next two years.”
” Moves such as those by Canadian Natural ensure the oil sands will continue adding to the global oil glut for a long time to come….”
We produce four million barrels of oil shale per day and it takes constant drilling to maintain production. The “glut” is most often stated as 1.5 million barrels a day. At these prices we will lose most shale oil production in a very short time. Due to increase in demand albeit reduced growth, the world needs to add almost one million barrels a day in supply. The only reason that there is a projection of a glut is the EIA is still counting on an increase of production from shale oil fields of 720,000 barrels this year. Given the collapse in the rig count, that is a bad joke, maintaining even current production will be difficult.
Oil steadies but stays under pressure on World Bank growth cut
By Libby George and Himanshu Ojha
LONDON Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:18am EST
A man looks at an electronic board displaying Japan’s Nikkei average (top R) in Tokyo January 13, 2015. REUTERS/Thomas Peter
(Reuters) - Oil prices recouped some early losses on Wednesday but remained under pressure after the World Bank cut its global economic growth forecast, doing little to end a rout that saw prices touch their lowest in nearly six years in the previous session.
Crude prices turned positive in the early afternoon, but failed to stage a significant rally as a weaker outlook from the Washington-based financial institution reinforced worries about sluggish growth in energy demand.
“This is just a little bounce after the very steep falls we’ve seen recently,” said Christopher Bellew, a trader with Jefferies Bache. “We’ll be rangebound for a while before it goes down again.”
…
Up about $2 a barrel last time I looked, it popped up from being down just an hour lower. Interesting move on what appears to be no news.
lower=earlier, up almost $2.50 now.
Options expiring. Look out below.
Were those rose colored glasses you’re wearing made in China? Because I hear they’re moving the factory to Vietnam.
30% of all the growth in the world this year will occur in China. Meanwhile, countries that became more socialistic like Brazil will be flat as a pancake.
China’s exports and trade surplus continue to increase:
http://europe.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2015-01/13/content_19304985.htm
Meanwhile about the rose colored glasses factory. 1. The factory in Vietnam is owned by Chinese. (2) the equipment to produce the glasses is made in China. (3) profits from the factory, which are huge due to the cheap Vietnamese labor, are flowing back to China, and are being used to buy luxury housing in Beijing.
BTW, the main consumer of the rose colored glasses is the Obama administration and his friends in the mainstream media.
China’s surplus is increasing because its imports are decreasing because its economy is slowing down. If China has to rely on exports alone it will still crash, because most of it’s economy and government revenue are based on building ghost towers, ghost malls, ghost cities and selling empty apartments that no one will ever live in. China’s financial system loaned out trillions of dollars in the last few years. Now those trillions of dollars of loans are coming due, and they are all secured by stuff that is worth absolutely nothing to anyone.
Ghost revenues to generate ghost taxes to pay off ghost city construction costs?
Another Drudge link
46 million on food stamps in the Obama recovery
http://m.cnsnews.com/news/article/ali-meyer/food-stamp-beneficiaries-exceed-46000000-38-straight-months
“I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family” — George W. Bush
“I know how hard it is for you to put food on your family”
Had to Google that line. Wow, just wow. LOLZ!
He couldn’t shine a candle to Slick Willie, that’s for sure.
No matter, we just keep getting the same results.
Yeah. He’s a real corpse-man.
http://politicalhumor.about.com/od/barackobama/a/obama-isms.htm
You have to keep in mind that he’s got degrees from Yale and Harvard. He probably speaks that way intentionally to appeal to his base.
“Fool me once shame on you….fool me,…won’t fool me again” - George W. Bush
According to the chart in the link, food stamp usage has grown by 3M in the past 4 years.
I wonder … how many anchor babies were born during that period?
Scripting a narrative
This is the top article on Breitbart dot com
http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/01/13/huffington-post-the-real-threat-is-the-european-right/
Because if you don’t want your country to turn into a third world muslim sh1thole, you are a racist
Hold it there. Are you now saying that some sky wizards are preferable to other sky wizards?
The descendants of the Tribes of Abraham all believe in the same Sky Wizard, they just disagree on which Sky Wizard textbook is the truthiest
The descendants of the Tribes of Abraham all believe in the same Sky Wizard
Sort of. Some of them have problems with the Son and the Holy Spirit.
“we’re not going down the road again of financing folks buying things they can’t afford.”
We’re not?
BY: Daniel Wiser
January 8, 2015 4:50 pm
Obama said the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) would cut annual insurance premiums on government-backed mortgages during a speech in Phoenix, Ariz.—an area devastated by plunging home prices and foreclosures following the 2008 mortgage meltdown. The measure is projected to allow up to 250,000 low-income buyers to obtain a home.
The president also said the FHA would keep standards in place that evaluate whether a borrower can afford the mortgage payments.
“Over the next three years, these lower premiums will give hundreds of thousands more families the chance to own their own home, and it will help make owning a home more affordable for millions more households overall in the coming years,” Obama said.
He still urged the crowd not to “buy something you can’t afford” and added that “we’re not going down the road again of financing folks buying things they can’t afford.”
freebeacon.com/issues/obama-touts-more-risky-home-loans/ - 138k -
“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest” — Kim Jong Un
Obamao = monkey in tropical rain forest = Curious George
Man in big yellow hat = George Soros or maybe Warren Buffet
The sh*t storm that Obamao creates being Curious George = Valerie Jarret
This guy can’t even get his argument correct from one sentence to the next -
Obamao = sociopathic liar
“What about the full year? Well, GAAP EPS was a measly $268 million or $0.21 EPS. However, when one adds back a whopping $1.2 billion pretax in one-time charges, what does one get? Why net income of $1.1 billion, or $0.92 EPS. Non-GAAP that is. Because only for Alcoa is the difference between GAAP and Non-GAAP some 75%.”
“Instead, AA is a poster child for the whole ex-items scam which animates the entire Wall Street casino.”
“The cheap debt that has fueled the massive buyback machine has thus done wonders in keeping the mullets and muppets in the dark about how expensive and dangerous the casino really is.”
http://davidstockmanscontracorner.com/its-earnings-season-so-here-come-the-crooks-led-by-alcoa/
This is one of the best articles on how shareholders are being robbed and deceived.
The dollar was used to drive down oil and now it is the time to pay the price for that strategy. Lower profits for multinationals trading on the stock market. Obama tried to hurt Putin and the U.S. economy is the collateral damage. Damaged caused by the higher dollar and the lost of oil field related jobs. I bet the Saudis could not believe their luck when Obama asked for their help to replay the Reagan strategy against the Soviet Union. Meanwhile, Putin is riding high in the polls, Russia’s price of producing oil has plummeted due the costs being in rubles. Its currency reserves are high enough to last three years, while oil will be recovering within six months. Cue the North Korean quote:
“Obama always goes reckless in words and deeds like a monkey in a tropical forest” — Kim Jong Un
The vast majority of economists polled agree with the assertion “The recent decline in oil prices will promote higher real GDP in the US over the next couple of years. ”
http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-panel/poll-results?SurveyID=SV_4Otbz0HBxqXSypL
Does not include the impact of the higher dollar. It is the combined impact of the higher dollar and oil related job losses which is killing the economy. The spiking of the dollar occurred after the economic sanctions were having no impact on Russia and Putin and his allies where laughing at Obama.
The studies also ignore this reality: It takes a long period of lower gasoline prices to put significant amounts of money in any person’s pocket. But the people that work for energy companies are scared and have stopped making major purchases. This appears to be more than offsetting the sales generated by lower gasoline prices. Hence, the fall off in retail sales.
Oil fall could lead to capex collapse: DoubleLine’s Gundlach
By Jennifer Ablan
NEW YORK Tue Jan 13, 2015 6:29pm EST
Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive and chief investment officer of DoubleLine Capital, speaks at the Sohn Investment Conference in New York, May 5, 2014. REUTERS/Eduardo Munoz
(Reuters) - DoubleLine Capital’s Jeffrey Gundlach said on Tuesday there is a possibility of a “true collapse” in U.S. capital expenditures and hiring if the price of oil stays at its current level.
Gundlach, who correctly predicted government bond yields would plunge in 2014, said on his annual outlook webcast that 35 percent of Standard & Poor’s capital expenditures comes from the energy sector and if oil remains around the $45-plus level or drops further, growth in capital expenditures could likely “fall to zero.”
Gundlach, the co-founder of Los Angeles-based DoubleLine, which oversees $64 billion in assets, noted that “all of the job growth in the (economic) recovery can be attributed to the shale renaissance.” He added that if low oil prices remain, the U.S. could see a wave of bankruptcies from some leveraged energy companies.
…
Lawmakers open to Obama’s cyber proposal
By Cory Bennett - 01/13/15 05:48 PM EST
Lawmakers leading the charge on cybersecurity mostly praised the president’s newest proposal Tuesday to enhance cyber threat information sharing between the government and private sector.
“While it took an attack on Hollywood for the president to reengage Congress on cybersecurity, I welcome him to the conversation,” said Michael McCaul (R-Texas), House Homeland Security Committee chairman, who has previously pushed a bill that closely resembled the White House’s proposal.
Congress has spent years going in circles on cyber info sharing measures, with a lack of public awareness and privacy concerns stalling various efforts.
That’s changed with the hacking of Sony Pictures and publicity surrounding the film “The Interview,” which has raised new awareness about cybersecurity threats while increasing the chances of movement on legislation.
The White House’s suggested bill would give companies legal liability protection to share limited types of cyber threat data with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).
thehill.com/policy/cybersecurity/229409-congress-welcomes-obamas-cyber-proposal - 151k -
“privacy concerns”
Edward Snowden revealed just how much the “most transparent administration in history” is concerned about privacy
Forward
We will achieve maximum transparency when no one has any privacy.
“maximum transparency”
I want to see Dianne Feinstein’s airport TSA scans
Coo coo coo choo, Mrs. Robinson
I want to see Dianne Feinstein’s airport TSA scans
That is fifty shades of gray type masochism.
I want to see Dianne Feinstein’s airport TSA scans
Uh … I’d rather not.
Full disclosure - I was a student of Thom Mayne’s at the Southern California Institute of Architecture when he and Rotondi were making a name for themselves. I have always respected Thom for his hard driving work ethic etc. and his work has always challenged my architecture sensibilities - but this I think is beyond the pale - Bradbury is an icon of the sci-fi world and this home I think needed to be kept. But - it is gone - shame on Mayne!!!
http://curbed.com/archives/2015/01/14/thom-mayne-demolish-ray-bradbury-house.php
Read Bradbury’s short story “The Murderer”. It’s almost prophetic.
Will do. Thanks.
Okay $1.76 million, and bars in the windows? Only in California!
Where did the lie come from that every house on the planet has 10 people interested in buying it?
The 23 year old intern and his wife are looking to buy right now in the $350,000 to $400,000 range
Empty pockets and tire kickers are always window shopping.
I felt like I was pushing the envelope buying a house in ‘97 for 105K at the ripe old age of 25. Sheesh!!
The 23 year old intern and his wife are looking to buy right now in the $350,000 to $400,000 range
They’ve been sitting on the fence for a while. How much exactly do they make? From mtgprofessor.com:
So they need a combined income of 135K.
Just how much do you guys pay your interns?
I’ve done everything short of forcing him to read HBB at gunpoint, but he is dead set on this
They were originally looking in Greenwood Village or Lone Tree, but didn’t like what they found, so now they’re gonna “drive until they qualify” to southeast of Parker out on the prairie with all the tumbleweeds and wind and no trees
“Experience keeps a dear school but fools will learn in no other.” - Ben Franklin
With a 7% mortgage
When was the last time mortgages were 7%? This example should be based off of current mortgage rates.
Good point. I’m guessing that a combined six figure income is still required, just less than 135K.
Aren’t most interns unpaid? and even if he isn’t, I’ll bet that he gets paid 25K tops. What does the wifey do?
So they need a combined income of 135K
That’s right around the old one-third of the house price rule of thumb.
No. It’s half head of household which is double “old one third”. Worse yet, Less than 8% of wage earners earn 135k/yr or more.
Nice try.
I never heard of that head of household part. I can’t see why total household income wouldn’t be the relevant amount. You’re probably correct about salaries, though. In fact, it may be only 4% or 5% of all jobs that pay $135k or more.
Betcha upgraded granite tops they get buyers remorse after the first mortgage statement and tax bill!
Tax bills are “lowish” in the Centennial state. Unless their community has “de-Bruced” property taxes, I’m guessing that their property tax bill will be 2-3K for a 400K house.
With a 7% mortgage your monthly income should be at least $11,200 ”
7% mortgage ?? I think its below 4% and probably headed lower
Pre-crash II indicator alert: Truck Nutz are bouncing back in Florida.
You mean after crash I drivers couldn’t afford them?
Waking up $100,000+ underwater made them retract back up into their abdomen, LOLZ
Yeah, shrinkage.
“You mean after crash I drivers couldn’t afford them?”
I mean they were real popular right before brown shoots, and then in an act of modesty, they were tucked away for austere times.
They’ve dropped again.
Think of it as the Florida version of building the Empire State building right before the Great Depression kicks in.
Senate to Vote Whether or Not Climate Change is Real
http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/229381-mcconnell-to-allow-climate-change-amendment-on-keystone-bill
So now politicians — who are “not scientists” — are deciding what science is good for us. Gee, that worked out well for Galileo — it took the Vatican 350 years to admit Galileo was right after all, and yes, the Earth does indeed orbit the Sun.
Next vote: A Senate resolution declaring the Earth is flat.
The Earth is 6,000 years old. And those dinosaur bones were put there by the Devil to make people question the Truth as told in the Book of Genesis.
New Reports: There Is No Global Warming
Tuesday, 13 Jan 2015 12:06 PM
The liberal media machine has spent decades bulldozing anyone who tells you global warming is a sham.
They even came up with a clever little title — “deniers.”
Every time a heat wave hits, every time a picture of a lone polar bear gets taken . . . the left pounds the table for environmental reform, more policy, more money to combat climate change. But how much has the world really warmed?
Their message is simple: Get on the man-made global warming bandwagon . . . or you’re just ignorant.
But how much has the world really warmed?
It’s an important question, considering the U.S. government spends $22 billion a year to fight the global warming crisis (twice as much as it spends protecting our border).
To put that in perspective, that is $41,856 every minute going to global warming initiatives.
But that’s just the tip of a gargantuan iceberg.
For example: President Obama himself tweeted on May 16, 2014: “97% of scientists agree: climate change is real, man-made and dangerous.” John Kerry, Al Gore, and a host of others have championed this statistic.
Since then, it has become clear that this statistic was inaccurate.
The Wall Street Journal went as far as to say, “The assertion that 97% of scientists believe that climate change is a man-made, urgent problem is a fiction.” Forbes headlined “Global Warming Alarmists Caught Doctoring ’97% Consensus’ Claims.”
Come to find out, the study President Obama was citing was botched from the start.
A host of other problems for the global warming crowd are emerging, such as . . .
Leaked emails from global warming scientists state that the Earth is not warming, such as this one from Kevin Trenberth that states, “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty we can’t.”
Claude Allegre, the founding father of the man-made global warming ethos, recently renounced his position that man has caused warming.
Proof is emerging that Al Gore and even President Obama have financially benefited from fueling the global warming hysteria (click here for an internal report on this).
It is becoming harder and harder for the global warming community to ignore some of the scientific data that show the Earth is not getting warmer . . . instead, the world is getting cooler.
Which makes one wonder — why are we still spending $22 billion a year on global warming initiatives, and where is the money going? (Click Here to Read a Controversial Report on This Topic.)
Suggested Reading for You: A former White House adviser and NASA consultant reveals startling proof that the global warming faction is hiding the truth . . . and gets attacked. Click Here.
Read Latest Breaking News from Newsmax.com http://www.Newsmax.com/MKTNews/global-warming-hoax-facts/2014/10/17/id/601458/#ixzz3OokHiJk8
Urgent: Should Obamacare Be Repealed? Vote Here Now!
If you like your F-350 Super Duty coal roller, you can keep your F-350 Super Duty coal roller.
“If you like your F-350 Super Duty coal roller, you can keep your F-350 Super Duty coal roller.”
Like you said about Macy’s and rich people.
How many F-350 Super Duty coal rollers are there?
Not enough F-350s, cow farts or beaver dams.
“$41,856 every minute going to global warming initiatives.”
Follow the money and you see who is in “control”.
i need to take a picture of the super duty f-350 king ranch in the parking lot the next time i park my civic next to it
also just googled it and learned that the 2015 model is $52,160 starting msrp and only $756 a month for 72 months at 4.9% apr
Your civic probably will fit into the bed of the truck.
Follow the money and you see who is in “control”.
It ain’t us.
I see a ton of Raptors in the Tampa area. I can’t believe how expensive those are.
I imagine that anyone who buys a truck like that is going to use it as part of their livelihood. Hay has to be hauled and cities fed. Not everyone who drives a truck is doing it to offend environmentalists.
You must live in a blue state. In the red states many of the people who drive pickup trucks work in fields like accounting or IT. At rush hour the highways are full of pickups and fewer than 1 in 10 have anything in the bed of the truck.
I imagine that anyone who buys a truck like that is going to use it as part of their livelihood.
Judging by the large number of shiny, unscratched Trux I see in my nabe, I doubt it. It’s easy to tell which ones are used for “work”: they’re dirty, scratched, have dents and have a business decal (XYZ Excavation) on the doors. They usually aren’t the ones with the “Broncos Edition package”.
A lot of the new trucks are basically elevated luxury vehicles. They don’t fit my lifestyle at the moment, but if I could afford it I wouldn’t mind retiring early and seeing the country in one.
I have a friend who is a dentist and commutes to work in a big dully pick up truck that he occasionally uses to pull his trailer and toys up to the mountains.
All tax deductible if it weights 6000lb or more . The truck, gas, maintenance .
Boy, a link to Newsmax. That PROVES that global warming is a hoax. Take that, liberal media.
” Comment by real journalists
2015-01-14 09:41:39
The Earth is 6,000 years old. And those dinosaur bones were put there by the Devil to make people question the Truth as told in the Book of Genesis.”
I think you use lies to mock the Bible. Truth or not, the Bible does not give an age for planet earth. It gives some record of the generations of Adam, make of that what you will, but it’s not the age of the planet. The Bible does not say dinosaur bones were put there by the Devil.
I’m not mocking any thing, I agree with the parts about not having sex with animals or my sister. Just sharing what some people in Cincinnati told me when I used to live there.
If you’re ever in Cincinnati, be sure to visit the Creation Museum across the river in Northern Kentucky:
http://creationmuseum.org/
I’ve met my share of young earth fundies. Heck, one of my sisters, who is an intelligent woman with a high IQ, is a young earth fundy. Much like flat earthers, moon landing or holocaust deniers, no amount of facts will change her mind.
The Apollo moon landings and the holocaust are countered with arguments from personal incredulity when you question them.
That fact alone makes them both more religious than most religions.
“I can’t believe you said that!”
Sorry; what I meant to say is that dress makes your ass look huge.
Global warming is real.
The only solution is bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.
“”The only solution is bigger and bigger government with more and more regulations and higher and higher taxes.”"
We tried that Enron/Bush thing, they cheated us taxpayers. Hence we need regulations.
Yeah, and Obama locked up all those wall street crooks who sold worthless loans to the pension funds! And Elisabeth Warren would never let those republicans foam the runway for the banks!
Oh, wait. She was in the room when that plan was revealed. And she never said a peep about it. Obama let everyone off the hook. Gosh, it’s almost like you have your head up your ass or something.
Logic: more than Bush was awful, so it is OK to be awful???
Obama has a lot of mess to clean up, not sure if he will get to it all in only 8 yrs with no cooperation from Congress.
68 degrees today, blue skies… good day for a bike ride on the beach.
Arguing witch political is better is a wast of my time.
You’re a waste of bandwith Lolacado.
Watch the cops on your boardwalk stroll.
Today’s time machine moment of fun:
September 11, 2000 / CNN Money
“NEW YORK (CNNfn) - Crude oil prices soared in late afternoon trading Monday, shrugging off the decision by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to lift output by 800,000 barrels per day but backing off session highs as Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said the cartel wanted prices at $25 a barrel.”
“U.S. light sweet crude for October delivery rose $1.51 to $35.14 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after climbing as high as $35.85 earlier in the day. London’s benchmark Brent for October delivery gained $1.50 to $33.65 per barrel on the International Petroleum Exchange.”
How did ANYONE make any money in 2000 with oil trading at a mere $35/barrel?? My, my. Never price your life (Russia) on a commodity that has such WILD swings.
As Rome burns - this is the news of the day - What kind of City / nation is more worried about some stupid library for a failure of a POTUS as the nation swirls the toilet bowl?
Welcome to ILLANNOY - Take heed all ye who enter here.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/ct-park-land-obama-library-met-0114-20150113-story.html
And then there’s this:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/102335592
Wading through the detail, it’s not as rosy. The applicable number that really “matters” to the housing market are purchase loan applications:
“Applications for a loan to purchase a home rose a seasonally adjusted 24 percent from the previous week and are now two percent higher than they were a year ago, the first annual gain in over a year.”
A big increase in refinancing, which hopefully just means people are lowering their monthly payment, and NOT buying a new car.
Up 24% week over week. And at 20 year lows.
But a week to week measurement to detract from the fact the data shows mortgage apps is at 20 year lows is acceptable so long as it suits your distorted outlook.
You shuffle, backpedal and tapdance like no other Rental_Fraud.
“Up 24% week over week. And at 20 year lows.”
And there goes your analysis again.
It’s higher than last year, so even if last year was the 20-year low (which I doubt given the carnage of 2009-2010), the current level is not.
And there goes your denial distorting again.
20 year lows Rental_Fraud.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-fqSztKilps8/VFlPKlr52JI/AAAAAAAAhKU/v5oS41S-y0s/s1600/MBANov52014.PNG
Distortion?
Don’t try to pull that graph as the current data, it’s from November.
Today’s CR shows today’s data (which shows the blip up this week). As noted in CR…still too early to tell, but the most recent level is not the 20-year low.
In this case, you’re so hung up on the current two weeks that you can’t look back over the last 20 years.
Sound familiar?
Interesting - they only cite percentages and do not provide any actual mortgage application numbers.
Always a red flag.
Loved my statistics class in college, taught me how we’re lied to using numbers.
I agree with you. Levels are still very low.
The data is consistent with a slow recovery in new home starts–not a decline.
Remember R._Fraud…. a housing ‘recovery’ is falling housing prices to dramatically lower levels by definition.
These from dailyjobcuts.com
“Suncor cutting 1,000 jobs, taking $1 billion out of 2015 budget
Shell to Cut up to 300 Jobs at Fort Mac Operation
Halliburton undertakes another round of layoffs, none in Pennsylvania
U.S. Steel to idle two oil, gas pipe plants, laying off 756
Major layoffs planned at U.S. Steel Tubular Operations”
On and on and on it goes - where it stops nobody knows!!
How many CEO/top tier jobs are getting cut???????
How many CEO raises this year????
How many CEO raises this year????
Hey, they do the “magic” that makes the world go round! Why do you think their salaries are as big as small lotto jackpots?
/sarc
Business formation heading down……down…..down……
This…
http://www.aei.org/publication/regulation-choking-small-business-formation/
and this…
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/01/14/economic-death-spiral-more-american-businesses-dying-than-starting/
The lie of obama economics…
:The current premise is that global equities markets will rise regardless of economic fundamentals. Money must flow into equities [perceived as the only asset class capable of producing “acceptable” returns] because the alternatives offer virtually no return…with interest rates pinned near zero in most western economies. Just buy any equity [akin to dart throwing] and a “greater fool than you” will buy after your purchase, at a higher price, ad infinitum…thus ever increasing the asset’s value This is such an obviously flawed argument on so many levels…albeit, like almost any strategy, is surprisingly effective from time to time. Still…it is, ultimately, a long term losing strategy because nothing moves up forever [whether it be a balloon or equity prices]…especially when wholly relying on the “fools” behind you.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-14/hugh-hendry-greater-fool
Are we running out of fools?
ClownBarry yammers “all these bad mortgages disappear with time”.
Guess again ClownBarry.
In the long run, bad mortgage bagholders are dead.
phony scandals
Jacrispy